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prove we are smart at 07:25 AM on 16 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
“It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing.”
I really hope human nature can change and prove this statement wrong.
Is it up to the media to accomplish this?
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nigelj at 06:17 AM on 16 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
Neoliberalism originated with mainstream economists who were worried about policies in the 1970's of too much protectionist trade and tariffs, excessive government ownership of industry, excessive controls on immigration, and excessive occupational licencing and over regulation of the business sector, and with some justification. They wanted these things to end, but never promoted complete deregulation and provatisation of everything, and any basic economics text will tell you governmnets should have environmental regulations.
It's largely right wing politicians who have distorted neoliberalism into something self promoting and toxic.
Like OPOF says its hard explaining this in short sound bites and catchy phrases. Explaining the truth is a bit more nuanced, but we should keep at it.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:47 AM on 16 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
louislorenziprince@5,
Agreed. Many detrimental fiction-based passionate beliefs are based on the religious belief that 'people being freer to believe and do whatever they wish that is contrary to expanded awareness and improving understaninding will develop lasting improvements for humanity'.
That fatally flawed belief is the basis for many religions. And one of the most damaging religious beliefs is the belief in Free Market Libertarianism and its related misleading marketing systems.
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louislorenziprince at 04:37 AM on 16 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
In order to understand how people can continue to ignore the science of climate change, one has to understand the detrimental role religion plays in this issue.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:31 AM on 16 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
prove we are smart,
That quote does appear to describe 'part of the problem'. But the issue is larger and more complex than that.
The problem of the socioeconomic-political response to the expanded awareness and improved understanding of climate science is one of the largest of the many unsustainable problems developed by competition for perceptions of superiority relative to Others with popularity and profitability as the main measures of merit. But it is not the only problem that the fatally flawed systems produce and resist the correction of.
Popularity and profitability can be obtained by getting away with a diversity of unsustainable activities that can be promoted and prolonged by successful fiction-based marketing (making up stuff that will influence easily impressed people).
Expanding awareness and improved understanding can be seen to struggle to over-come powerfully developed fiction based beliefs. Perceptions of the potential for personal benefit can be very powerful motivations for people to believe a fiction rather than expand their awareness and improve their understanding. It is almost as powerful as the fear of losing developed perceptions of superiority or losing developed perceptions of potential for personal benefit (an example being all the people want higher-paying coal mining jobs, or any other 'higher-paying' fossil fuel production jobs and fear the loss of that opportunity).
Human history is full of examples of unsustainable beliefs and resulting actions becoming popular and profitable (for a portion of the population) that required External Parties to Intervene to get people to stop behaving in ways that produced negative impacts on Others. Those interventions start with attempts to expand awareness and improve understanding. But in many cases new restrictions of behaviour, new or revised laws or regulations with more effective enforcement and more severe penalties to limit the harm done by people, are required to limit the impacts of people who will not expand their awareness and improve their understanding of how to 'not act in ways that create, or increase the risk of creating, negative consequences for Others'.
Some people will always try to do as they please, based on what they want to believe, even when there is a high risk that they will be justifiably penalized for doing so. They will try to not be perceived as the one creating the negative impact (claiming that Others are the ones behaving badly). And they will try to find loopholes in the restriction mechanisms that get developed (preferring to be able to create the appearance of a restriction but knowing how to 'work around the system rules they got to influence the creation of'.
That is the reality of human behaviour. There will always be some people wanting to resist expanded awareness and improved understanding that limits their Freedom to believe what they want and do as they please. And there are some undeserving Winners who try to get personal advantages from that nasty reality of human behaviour that makes many people 'easily impressed into passionately believing Fictions rather than learning to expand their awareness and improve their understanding'.
The challenge for the future of humanity (and throughout humanity's history) is limiting the success of those type of people today, and every day. Admitting that there must be 'limits on the Freedom of people to do whatever they want based on whatever they want to believe' appears to be what is required. That is a Tough Awareness and Understanding to Sell, especially in the developed socioeconomic-political environments. And it likely can't be done through punchy catchy news-minute scale statements', advertising slogans, or tweet sized snippets of communication. Those things work well for promoting Fictions. Non-Fiction is not as simple to communicate.
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prove we are smart at 21:16 PM on 15 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
Donald J Trump is the antithesis of a responsible and selfless world leader.He is the extreme example of many politicians, in many countries. A common cause is the catalyst to unite people, this climate blog and others worldwide are informing the ordinary people about our planets biospheres increasing tragedy. I want to be so hopeful we can unite to solve it. When,how and who is the question.I think i copied this quote from this climate blog-is this the reason why we are not still seeing the danger of inaction " Rapid reduction of carbon emissions is still excluded from consideration by policymakers because it is deemed to be too economically dislocating. The fact that the present political path of 3°C or more of warming would result in a world overwhelmed by extreme climate impacts, leading to outright chaos, is avoided. The dominant neo-liberal framing of progress, through globalisation and deregulation, suppresses regulatory action which would address the real climate challenge because it undermines the prevailing political–economic orthodoxy."
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Eclectic at 13:14 PM on 15 November 2019Video: Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2019
Sorry Doug @7 , but it wasn't "climate change wiping them out". The history was much more complex than that. Other factors - geopolitical and local factors - were much larger than the minor climatic change.
You can find more detailed discussion elsewhere on SkepticalScience.
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Doug18698 at 12:47 PM on 15 November 2019Video: Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2019
Re: Why the Vikings came and then left Greenland. It is really quite simple. It was warm, there were very nice Birch forests, the glaciers were receding and everything was green. The land was good for farming, so you could raise cattle, goats and other livestock. Because of local warming you could ship goods back and forth from Europe. Then they got a cold snap that lasted a few hundred years. You can't farm if your land turns to permafrost. The sea started getting too much ice and too many storms. In a nutshell, climate change drove them out. It was the same thing that happened in Northern Canada. The camels and elephants (mastodons) could not find food anymore. Climate change wiped them out.
Moderator Response:[DB] There is so much wrong with your comment that it is difficult to know where to begin. However, it is much warmer now than during the failed Viking occupation of Greenland. That those Vikings who didn't die abandoned their settlements while the local Inuit thrived unabated to today is indicative that a changing climate was not an ultimate obstacle to habitation of Greenland. For more information, see this post. Please stay on-topic.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:42 AM on 15 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
nigelj@10:
Non-Fiction can never have the type of Passion-Induced Appeal of Fiction.
People who are passionate about Non-Fiction are stuck with the constraints of Non-Fiction and the related constant expansion of awareness and improvement of understanding (and acceptance of correction) that is part of that passionate pursuit.
Fiction lovers are unrestricted regarding the story they tell or like, and seldom have to accept reasons to change a story they have become fond of believing.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:36 AM on 15 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
This OP and the comments are indeed interesting. However, I do not believe that it is possible to know if the popularity of a website, or any specific pages of a website, relates to increased acceptance or belief of what is being presented there.
Sites like SkS try to expand awareness and improve understanding regarding climate science. Sites like WUWT make-up Fictions that are hoped to be popular distractions from the expanded awareness and improving understanding of Climate Science and the related required corrections of developed human activity.
What is clear is - to paraphrase something said during the first day of Trump impeachment public hearings - Principled Promotion of expanded awareness and improved understanding (what sites like SkS do) is almost certain to piss off people who want others to continue to believe Fictions that are unsustainable when subjected to reasoned evaluations based on the expanded awareness and improved understanding (those Fiction lovers hope for prolonged popularity of sites like WUWT).
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nigelj at 05:55 AM on 15 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
I agree SkSc and WUWT mostly have quite different objectives, but there's another thing. At the risk of generalising websites like WUWT make a lot of use of clickbait, as in making provocative or outrageous statements, which of course attract attention like a magnet. SkSc is more formal and restrained in the normal scientific tradition.Personally I find clickbait annoying, but there is the risk that if articles and their headlines are too dry and restrained nobody will read them.
How do you resolve the dilemma? Or does dry and boring win in the end? Or is there a middle ground?
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BaerbelW at 17:37 PM on 14 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
I quite like the summaries made about Skeptical Science and WUWT on the helpful website Media Bias Fact Check:
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Doug Bostrom at 15:31 PM on 14 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
It's a little hard to compare Skeptical Science with WUWT without comparing how traffic is acquired. The two sites serve different roles and it's possible that difference is reflected in acquistion numbers.
For our case we have the necessary data and those statistics suggest that Skeptical Science serves a role a little along the lines of a specialized encyclopedia, our roster of core content* being articles people "look up" via search. The analogy extends in that our rebuttal/debunking articles are supported with literature citations of peer-reviewed, published scientific researc results, similar to aticles in a mainstream specialist encyclopedia.
So, we feel good about the utility role played by Skeptical Science.
Another consistent signal from our statistics is that particularly when climate science becomes more topical as a political matter, inquiries landing at our articles increase. 2017 reflected this strongly as policy implications of the change in adminstration became clear. It's encouraging to see folks performing due diligence on what they're told.
*Arrivals to core content consisting of debunking/rebuttal articles tower over visits to Skeptical Science blog entries.
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nigelj at 12:51 PM on 14 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
Eclectic, don't apologise. I'm always a bit interested in such things possibly because I almost did a degree in psychology. And it would be interesting to know how much your slithering octapus of WUWT has to do with the Kochtapus and how intimate the relationship is, if any. I rarely bother with WUWT, too much same old same old.
Anyway, to get to the point and to finish the ghastly business off, the following blog by one Russel Seitz is a sort of satirical take on WUWT for anyone interested:
vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/
But as you say we are straying a bit off topic so I will leave it there.
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Eclectic at 10:29 AM on 14 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
Thanks, Nigelj.
I will make a few points about website WUWT, and then shut up ~ since it's getting somewhat off-topic. The comparison of the two websites has some interest here in "numbers" comparison only. There's no real other comparison . . . I think of SkS as an eagle flying in the sunshine, while WUWT is more like an octopus slithering in the murky depths.
For those readers wise enough to be unfamiliar with WUWT:- Anthony Watts & team run the WattsUpWithThat website. Allegedly they don't receive Big Oil funding these days. Be that as it may, they want to receive a lot of hits/views, partly in order to have enough high rank to pull in advertising of the incidental sort ( e.g. I myself am plagued with telescope advertisements when I click on the WUWT site).
Accordingly, WUWT has a high turnover of lead articles. Most articles are brief, and many are slanted propaganda against the reality of AGW and often are rather childish whinges about the teething problems of the gradual transfer to renewables (versus fossil fuel power stations) . . . or whinges about Greta Thunberg, James Hansen, and so on. There's the occasional leavening with articles about technical developments, or astronomical news, or things of general interest [but not many!]. Then we get the re-posts of Heartland propaganda articles, of GWPF, and of assorted Media op-ed propaganda pieces. And a succession of crackpot ideas from Lord Monckton, Dr Pat Frank, and similar fringe dwellers of Dunning-Krugerism and Delusion Land.
WUWT maintains a high hit rate, by having an open-door policy on its comments columns ~ provided that the comments do not support mainstream climate science nor support "climate action". (A tiny dribble of such comments is permitted by moderators . . . but mainly I suspect to act as red meat and keep the regular clientele in a savage mood. A prominent exception, is comments by scientist Nick Stokes, who often has something pertinent to say, which punctures the usual rubbishy comments. He is loathed by the standard clientele, and I suspect he is not moderated out . . . because his is a token presence to illustrate the respectabiity & toleration of the WUWT website!)
In short, WUWT is an echo-chamber for the Angries, the extremists, and the deluded. Comments tend to be repetitious ventings. But the sheer number of these, is part of what keeps the site ranking high enough to attract advertising dollars. Does the WUWT ranking intimidate politicians into thinking there's a lot of Denialists around? I don't know.
My own interest in the WUWT website, is to observe the ways that some intelligent minds engage in rampant Motivated Reasoning. And to a smaller extent, to keep in touch with the Dreck found in the murky depths. Know thine enemy!
Sorry, Nigelj, for my own lengthy vent of a post ~ but I hope it provided some "edutainment".
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Doug Bostrom at 07:31 AM on 14 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
To a certain extent people who pretend to believe something that is factually wrong as a trade for some other gain are taking on humiliation, selling out their character in a zero sum transaction.
There was a fad here in the US for a while for product promotions entailing people being drizzled with honey and then standing in a booth loaded with loose dollar bills while blowers whirled the currency around them— on television, in front of strangers. There were a number of variations on this scheme, having in common the feature of making participants look foolish in exchange for a little money. The transaction boiled down to "look stupid in public for financial gain."
In this case the situation is arguably worse because while honey washes away with a simple laundering, blown credibility and esteem in the public eye is a permanent stain.
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nigelj at 05:27 AM on 14 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
Eclectic, thank's for the tips on the potholer videos. The name rings a bell.
I suspect part of WUWT 40,000 rank being higher than SkS is that many of the comments posted at WUWT are posted by paid lobbyists and full time retired cranks. The same people come under more scrutiny here and know repetitious sloganeering isn't tolerated so you dont get so many. This may partly explain the difference in rankings between WUWT and SkS.
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nigelj at 04:49 AM on 14 November 2019Climate Scientist reacts to Donald Trump's climate comments
Well said. It's sad that time has to be wasted shooting this nonsense down, but its important to do so. Some people like to claim facts don't change people minds, which is absurd when you think about it. Facts change at least some people minds even a few denialists eg Richard Mueller.
Donald Trumps climate denialism is probably largely or at least partly fake. Hes not a complete moron. By analogy its like a drug addict or criminal knowing they have done wrong and making up any old nonsense in their defence. Trump is used to making money out of business as usual won't like anything changing his world, but any mass infrastructure programme will create jobs, increase wealth, and stimulate the economy. Look at history, you have the industrial revolution that changed how we did things, the new deal of the 1930's, WW2, the post war years where the highway network was built, mass air travel, the list is endless.
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Eclectic at 22:12 PM on 13 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
Addendum, regarding website activity:
A year or two back, the website WUWT puffed an announcement that its internet ranking was around 40,000th for popularity as per hits ~ but I am unsure whether that's an American-only or worldwide ranking.
WUWT sounded pleased with this ranking . . . and perhaps that is justifiable, considering the huge amount of total websites and internet traffic. 40,000th sounds rather poor compared with (the game) Monopoly's "Second Prize in a Beauty Contest" card. But I suppose that's too much an apples & oranges comparison.
WUWT was also quick to point out the 60,000th rank of SkS. At WUWT, the website SkS is much despised, and usually mentioned grudgingly and rarely . . . though I get the impression that WUWT is often looking over its shoulder at the black velvet curtains which conceal its arch-nemesis SkS.
I have no idea what the hit-rate popularity difference is, between 60,000th and 40,000th. But considering that WUWT is the pre-eminent climate-science denialist website, it doubtless attracts the frequent lightning-bolts of venting by large numbers of Anglophone climate-science crackpots and rabid political-extremist "Angries". And they very much indulge in repetitous venting in the comments columns of each and every article there, regardless of the article's topic. Quite a fascinating psycho-pathology, IMO.
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Eclectic at 21:36 PM on 13 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
(This post is transferred from an erroneous position in another thread)
Independently, I can supply a confirmation (semi-quantitative) of a spike in "climate inquiries" in September this year. Though I wouldn't care to speculate whether the surge of interest comes from the activities of "St Greta of Arc(tic)" or from the Extinction Rebellion actions or from climate action week or whatever.
I am a fan of the excellent & amusing Youtube video series produced by Potholer54 (science journalist Peter Hadfield). These debunk climate myths and expose the fabrications and misrepresentations of some of the prominent Denialist propagandists.
As a little project to engage some of my spare moments, in June this year (and through until today) I jotted down at intervals the cumulative viewing numbers for each of Potholer54's videos. Now typically, a new video receives a flurry of viewings, presumably mostly from notified subscribers of the series . . . and then the viewing rate decays to a lower level (which might be only 5~10 per day for certain videos, yet over a 100 per day for the more popular videos).
However, I noticed a surge in viewing rates in late September through to mid October. The most prominent surges were for about 10 particular videos ~ where the viewing rates rose to around 3~5x the usual background rate.
So, quite a remarkable increase. (Numbers have fallen away since then.)
My record-keeping has been more casual than rigorous, and I don't have a spreadsheet record to permit better analysis.
Not sure how much more can be teased out of this information: but for those who are interested, these are probably the "most surged" titles :-
1. 1.Climate Change - the scientific debate
25. 23-Medieval Warm Period - fact vs fiction
28. 26-Science vs the Feelies
33. Response to "The Global Warming Hoax Lord Monckton & Stefan Molyneux"
34. Response to "DEBUNKED : Top 5 "Climate Change" Myths by Louder with Crowder
35. Are humans contributing only 3% of CO2 in the atmosphere?
39. Top 10 climate change myths
40. A conservative solution to global warming (Part 2)
47. How accurate are scientific predictions about climate?
Warning: the left-hand numbers are the numeration used by Youtube for the videos. But some of the early videos have an older numeration which is incorporated in the video title [as you see, above]. Easy to confuse!
Science vs the Feelies is a particularly amusing and instructive video, regarding the "intuitive" thinking behind some Denialists.
Regular readers at SkS may enjoy the videos, and may gain something useful from the comment columns underneath. Of course I don't mean from the Usual Suspects / the trolls / the loonies etc ~ but I mean that one must admire the deft way Potholer54 responds to them. He emphasizes that he is not presenting his opinions, but is simply presenting the science (which is found not in newspapers & blogs, but is found in the peer-reviewed scientific papers of respected scientific journals).
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Wol at 09:49 AM on 13 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
One of the most prevalent deniers' "arguments" is the bald statement "there's no such thing" - almost impossible to counter this especially when so many websites' comments sections are virtually unsearchable. By that I mean - an example here, the London Telegraph - a post disappears in a blizzard of other ones with no way of easily accessing something one has written as a reply. (The Telegraph used to use an outside company, Disqus, which did enable one to get back to a post and counter another's posts.)
The result is that, having rebutted a denier's point he often comes back with some other gish gallop issue and when he doesn't receive a rebuttal of THAT posts that I have no argument!
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Doug Bostrom at 08:57 AM on 13 November 2019Ynyslas, western Wales – a place made by climate change
Received my copy signed by the author today. :-)
John's writeup doesn't quite manage to convey how deftly the book connects specific, appropriate insights our science has to say about climate change with the local context of Ynyslas
A pleasing addition to our libary.
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nigelj at 05:30 AM on 13 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45, 2019
Actually as a regular reader of this website, thats quite a good idea. I doubt the website people would have time to answer many but other readers may. It could be a weekly thing.
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Michael Whittemore at 03:35 AM on 13 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45, 2019
Hi, I was looking at asking some climate change questions on the web and thought it would be nice if the Skeptical Science website had a section where we could ask questions. Let me know what you think.
That's an interesting idea, and timely as we're (slowly) getting underway with an overhaul of the site. In the meantime, we do closely monitor input from our contact page and highly encourage directing questions there. Questions are a useful type of feedback— we appreciate all of them and will always try to answer as best we may. .
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Nick Palmer at 23:46 PM on 12 November 2019Top 10 most viewed rebuttals in September and October 2019
"if you'd like to see posts of this type regularly, perhaps once per month?"
A huge yes to this. Any one out there fighting the misinformation and confusion out there as I do for far too much of my time :( can recognise 'waves' of specific denialist/contrarian memes in Youtube videos and filtering into article comments, etc. It would be very good to see if and how the 'general audience' reacts when seeing such comments by seeing a quantified graph of their online 'fact checking'. -
Eclectic at 20:25 PM on 12 November 2019The Experts Have Spoken: Disbanded Particulate Pollution Panel Finds EPA Standards Don’t Protect Public Health
Apologies. Somehow I have posted on the wrong thread. The above post belongs under the "Top 10 most reviewed rebuttals in September and October 2019" article by BaerbelW & Doug Bostrom.
Would a Moderator please move it? Thanks.
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Eclectic at 20:15 PM on 12 November 2019The Experts Have Spoken: Disbanded Particulate Pollution Panel Finds EPA Standards Don’t Protect Public Health
We don't have the means to shift your comment but please feel free to copy and repost it to the appropriate thread. It's certainly congruent with our observations, and worth noting in the right place.
Independently, I can supply a confirmation (semi-quantitative) of a spike in "climate inquiries" in September this year. Though I wouldn't care to speculate whether the surge of interest comes from the activities of "St Greta of Arc(tic)" or from the Extinction Rebellion actions or from climate action week or whatever.
I am a fan of the excellent & amusing Youtube video series produced by Potholer54 (science journalist Peter Hadfield). These debunk climate myths and expose the fabrications and misrepresentations of some of the prominent Denialist propagandists.
As a little project to engage some of my spare moments, in June this year (and through up until today) I jotted down at intervals the cumulative viewing numbers for each of Potholder54's videos. Now typically, a new video receives a flurry of viewings, presumably mostly from notified subscribers of the series . . . and then the viewing rate decays to a lower level (which might be only 5~10 per day for certain videos, yet over 100 per day for the more popular videos).
However, I noticed a surge in viewing rates in late September through to mid October. The most prominent surges were for about 10 particular videos ~ where the viewing rates rose to around 3~5x the usual background rate.
So, quite a remarkable increase. (Numbers have fallen away since then.)
My record-keeping has been more casual than rigorous, and I don't have a spreadsheet record to permit better analysis.
Not sure how much more can be teased out of this information: but for those who are interested, these are probably the "most surged" ten titles :-
1. 1.Climate Change - the scientific debate
25. 23-Medieval Warm Period - fact vs fiction
28. 26-Science vs the Feelies
33. Response to "The Global Warming Hoax Lord Monckton & Stefan Molyneux"
34. Response to "DEBUNKED : Top 5 "Climate Change" Myths by Louder with Crowder
35. Are humans contributing only 3% of CO2 in the atmosphere?
39. Top 10 climate change myths
40. A conservative solution to global warming (Part 2)
47. How accurate are scientific predictions about climate?
Warning: the left-hand numbers are the numeration used by Youtube for the videos. But some of the early videos have an older numeration which is incorporated in the video title [as you see, above]. Easy to confuse!
Science vs the Feelies is a particularly amusing and instructive video, regarding the "intuitive" thinking behind some Denialists.
Regular readers at SkS may enjoy the videos, and may gain something useful from the comment columns underneath. Of course I don't mean from the Usual Suspects / the trolls / the loonies etc ~ but I mean that one must admire the deft way Potholer54 responds to them. He emphasizes that he is not presenting his opinions, but is simply presenting the science (which is found not in newspapers & blogs, but is found in the peer-reviewed scientific papers of respected scientific journals).
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:29 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey,
You have this wrong. There is a large, well established body of litterature in astronomy and mathematics, going back well over a hundred years, that shows how planets influence each other's orbits. This body of litterature is full of precise calculations that you have not shown to be wrong. It is incumbent on you to show how all these scientists and mathematicians before you were wrong, not the other way around. You are the one who needs to show some work because you are the one making wild incoherent claims.
Moderator Response:[DB] That user has recused himself from further participation here, finding the onus of the burden of proof and adherence to the Comments Policy too onerous.
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MA Rodger at 01:50 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @43,
This is all very simple. Normally I would not expect to have to show the arithmetic.
Jupiter is 25,800-times the mass of the moon. Its closest approach to Earth is 1,636 further away than the moon is. (Note that your 0.00054% for the ratio of Jupiter's influence on Earth's tides is an approximate value deriving from your LINZ quote [see @33] which said Venus had 0.0054% the influence of the moon and that Jupiter was "ten times smaller than Venus.") If you calcuate 25,800/(1,636^3) the result yields 0.00059%. So it is indeed ten times smaller than Venus.
So the LINZ value bears out.
But importantly, this is the effect of Jupiter on Earth's tides. The influence of Jupiter on Earth's orbit and thus its impact on the ice age cycles and the 'glacial tides' that result is an inverse-square relationship not an inverse-cube. The impact is thus greater and thus significant.
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Alan Lowey at 01:40 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Post#41
See this paper: A Causality Problem For Milankovitch (Karner, Muller)
Summary
According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in the incident solar radiation, called insolation, in the Northern Hemisphere provide the driving force for global glacial cycles. In their Perspective, Karner and Muller discuss recent studies of corals from around the world that shed doubt on the applicability of the theory to the termination of the penultimate glaciation. The authors argue that a fresh, unbiased look at the data is warranted.
.....
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Alan Lowey at 00:39 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
MA Rodger
You're missing the point. The issue we're talking about is the gravitational effect of Jupiter on the Earth. LINZ correctly calculates that the gravitational effect is 0.00054% of the effect of the Moon. They correctly state that this is negligible.
If you think that this is wrong, then you'll need to show your workings.
...
Thank you for the putting the link. It would be great if we could move on to discuss it in more detail.
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jabell at 00:17 AM on 12 November 2019CSLDF: Here’s How Science Has Suffered During the First 1,000 Days of Trump
(Doug_bostrom @ 3) Thanks for the “offer”. I am fundamentally a lurker on sites like SkS and RealClimate, with no direct contribution to climate science. My background is physical photochemistry with lots of years of college chemistry teaching and extracurricular hands-on workshops for teachers at all levels advocating and demonstrating activity-based instruction. Over the past decade, I have tried to learn the fundamentals of climate science and climate disruption, so they are incorporated in my workshops. The message now is that familiar activities and concepts are also a part of climate science and can be used to bring it into the classroom without requiring large amounts of extra time (that isn’t available). Preparing materials for these workshops makes me hypersensitive to nuances of presentation, which you have observed. Thank you for your understanding.
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MA Rodger at 21:44 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @39,
I'm not too sure it takes much thought to grasp the message I present @38. It is true that an inverse-cube effect will reduce with distance quicker than a lower order relationship but the diameter of the moon or the sun is an irrelevance. Thus your eyeball and pea visualisation is irrelevant. Do note that the relative effect of sun & moon on the Earth's tides can be calculated. Relative to the moon, the sun is 389-times more distant but 27-million-times heavier. Thus if, as your LINZ reference notes:-
"The Earth-Sun system is also subject to similar gravitational and centrifugal forces but due to the Sun's greater distance they have less than half the strength of the lunar-related forces. As a consequence, the solar-related residual forces and resulting bulges are correspondingly smaller."
If this LINZ statement is correct (and I have no reason to doubt it), it would require an inverse-cube relationship to reduce the sun's tidal influence on Earth to "less than half the strength of the lunar-related forces," indeed down to 45% of that of the moon.
On a quite seperate matter, the paper referenced @40, Muller & MacDonald (1997), is linked here.
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Alan Lowey at 20:35 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
A quote from the paper referenced in post#40:
"We will also show that a previously ignored astronomical cycle, that of the orbital inclination, passes the spectral tests failed by the eccentricity. In addition the cycles precede the effects, and thus have no causality problem. Although the orbital inclination does not affect the insolation and therefore was ignored by previous analysts, the match to the spectrum and bispectrum is excellent, and so a linking mechanism to climate should be sought."
....
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Alan Lowey at 20:18 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
With reference to my post#37:
Please refer to: Origin of the 100kyr Glacial Cycle: Eccentricity or Orbital Inclination (Muller, MacDonald).
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Alan Lowey at 20:14 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
MA Rodger
As I've said before, just quoting without deep thought isn't sufficient.
The effect your referring to is only relevant when two astronomical bodies are relatively close together. The example of the Earth and Moon is relevant because the scale can be compared to your eye being the size of the Earth and the Moon being a pea held at arm's length.
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MA Rodger at 19:51 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @34,
I'm not totally sure what you are asking of me but the fact that tidal forces are inverse-cube is plainly set out in the Tidal Force Wikipedia page:-
"The tidal force acting on an astronomical body, such as the Earth, is directly proportional to the diameter of that astronomical body [which for the Earth remains constant] and inversely proportional to the cube of the distance from another body producing a gravitational attraction, such as the Moon or the Sun."
Is that the sort of justification you were after?
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Alan Lowey at 19:47 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Also note that Earth has an inclination cycle of exactly 100,000yrs as opposed to two eccentricity cycles which can be averaged to 108,000yrs.
The inclination cycle is therefore, on the face of it, a better fit of the data.
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Alan Lowey at 19:29 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
MA Rodger
Can you provide a link or quote please to justify your assertions.
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MA Rodger at 19:23 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @34,
If you can accept that tidal effects are a product of the inverse-cubed relationship and the orbital wobbles the product of the inverse-squared relationship, doesn't then your correct/incorrect convert to correct/correct? There is no need for "a new physics with regard to gravity."
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Alan Lowey at 17:34 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Philippe Chantreau, MA Rodger
We all need to keep thinking logically for ourselves and not just quote research paper conclusions as if they are fact set-in-stone. All theories are work-in-progress until a Theory of Everything has been established.
The two UniverseToday articles can't be directly compared as 'evidence'. Let me explain why.
The Precession cause is given as "by the tidal forces from the Sun and Moon". This agrees with the information from LINZ.
The Tilt cause is not mentioned.
The Eccentricity, 100,000yr cycle, cause is given as the planetary influence of Jupiter and Saturn. This doesn't agree with LINZ.
The second article refers to a 405,000yr cycle, via the gravitational effects of Venus and Jupiter. This doesn't agree with LINZ but at least they have some evidence in rocks that the cycle does exist.
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The logical conclusion is that LINZ is both correct/incorrect and that the causes of the 100,000yr and 405,000yr cycles are both correct/incorrect.
This does take some mental agility. The basic law of Newtons gravitational attraction doesn't reconcile with the amount of perturbation required to create such significant orbital changes.
The only logical conclusion is a new physics with regard to gravity. The issue is solved by the notion of a strong gravitational interaction between the cores of the planetary bodies when on the same plane. We tend to think of planetary motions in two dimensions but it's the third dimension, the inclination, which has been omitted from deep thought.
I know this sounds as if I must be insane to doubt the entire scientific community but my position is one of logic.
I don't expect anyone to leap to my side and accept that I'm making a valid logical point. It takes a lot of time to be able to comprehend the issues I'm raising.
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MA Rodger at 16:10 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
In the circumstance, the LINZ webpage being cited @23. 25 & 29 may be worth quoting from.
"What about the planets? Venus exerts the greatest gravitational pull on the Earth of all the planets but, at just 0.0054% of the effect of the Moon, makes no real impression. Despite being the largest planet, Jupiter's greater distance means that its influence is ten times smaller than Venus. So the Moon and Sun are the only celestial bodies that have any significant gravitational impact on the Earth."
There is a difference between a planet having a "significant gravitational impact on the Earth" (with respect to tides) and a planet having a significant gravitational impact in the Earth's orbit. It is the tidal influence of Jupiter that is "ten times smaller" than Venus's. A tidal influence is an inverse cube relationship. The orbital gravitational influence is the better-known inverse square relationship. And thus the orbital influence of Jupiter is greater than that of Venus.
Of course, the complex interaction between the orbiting planets is such that all are part of an orbiting system of significant stability. Moving one of them in its orbit can have unexpected results. Thus you can, for instance, find papers (see article here) describing the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit being most sensitive to the orbit of Saturn even though for Earth, Saturn's gravity varies perhaps 8-times less than Venus's, 13-times less than Jupiter's.
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kiwironnie at 14:27 PM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Scaddenp, thanks. Are you aware of any ongoing monitoring of the ratio of human produced CO2 isotopes vs naturally occuring. This seems like such a key figure that it is surprising perhaps that there aren't six monthly Internet broadcasts in large neon numbers!! Clearly though sampling would somehow need to be representative, and I don't understand how that can be achieved.
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kiwironnie at 14:12 PM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Thanks Eclectic, very much appreciate your taking the time to respond so fully and in such a straightforward manner. Am not aware of any other obvious absorbtion mechanism. Photosynthetic 'real estate' (leaf area) is surely more important than biomass. (Rain forest culling is bad news.) Got me seriously thinking!
Also now need to be looking at relationship between CO2 concentrations and reflection of relevant parts of the spectrum (overlap with water vapour etc).
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:02 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
For the reader wandering here who is interested and willing to read beyond the 5 year old level:
https://www.universetoday.com/39012/milankovitch-cycle/
Venus and Jupiter's effect:
https://www.universetoday.com/139198/jupiter-and-venus-change-earths-orbit-every-405000-years/
Brings to this paper:
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/24/6153
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory snipped.
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scaddenp at 08:55 AM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
The two strong facts here are:
1/ CO2 concentrations are rising in the atmosphere and the observed increase in surface radiation is precisely as expected from the math.
2/ The decrease in O2 and the changing isotopic concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is consistant with the increase being from FF use.
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Eclectic at 08:51 AM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Kiwironnie, for convenience we probably should revert to using GigatonsCarbon (GtC) rather than CO2 mass. Particularly so, when discussing the biomass which is absorbing (very roughly!) 25% of the fossil CO2 emissions.
You will find a vast amount of discussion of the topic of atmospheric residual CO2 emissions and of the oceanic absorption of CO2.
Absorption of CO2 by rock weathering is far too slow to contribute to the short term (a century or two) picture.
As you say, that leaves [excuse pun] the increase of plants as the third factor. Can you think of another factor that would absorb or sequester additional carbon?
Land-based plants are the predominant biomass; bacteria/ fungi/ animals are only a small contributor to biomass, relatively. (Note that modern agriculture tends to reduce soil fungal mass.)
Zaichun Zhu et al., 2016 estimates plant biomass in the region of 450~500 GtC . . . which we must compare with 10 Gtc of fossil carbon emissions as an annual output.
I have not seen a quantification of the (satellite-observed) "greening of Earth". Area of leaf (as leaf area index) has increased distinctly over the past 30+ years. But what about plant biomass ~ which would seem beyond the satellites' capabiity? Example case: rainforest clearing is presumably a carbon "negative" compared with the establishment of pastures or palm oil plantings, which have lower biomass.
From all this, it would seem that we should not expect an exponential "absorption feedback" from plant biomass increase. We will be fortunate if there is a linear biomass increase! ( I haven't found the source, but I recall a recent report that the observed "rate of greening" is slowing down ~ so I don't know if that was a reliable observation, despite its plausability, and neither do I know the more important relation to actual biomass.)
Ceiling capacity for plant biomass is a difficult question. There was a huge plant biomass back in the Carboniferous era. However, conditions are vastly different in the modern era, for plant biomass is greatly reduced by the presence of vertebrate herbivores nowadays (plus other human actions . . . including the food consumption by that "megafauna" called humans).
And judging from the long-term upward trend of the Keeling Curve, we cannot expect that a planetary greening will be of major benefit in reducing the CO2 / Global Warming problem.
Moderator Response:[DB] The Earth stopped getting greener 20 years ago.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-stopped-getting-greener-20-years-ago/
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:48 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
I suggest you try to read beyond the level of a 5 year old. Then again,m you seem rather refractory to advice, and keep digging...
Moderator Response:[PS] Inflammatory remarks dont help, violate comments policy. Try again (though I know how you feel).
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scaddenp at 06:32 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Multi-body gravitational system are complex and well studied, and the influence of other bodies most certainly affected the orbital parameters of earth when accumulated over billions of years. There is a massive literature of this going back to Poincare if not further. Jupiter and Saturn have no significant effect ocean tides.
See for instance this paper or this one.
The wobbles in earth orbit affect climate through the distribution of sun on continents, not via any direct affect on climate.
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Alan Lowey at 05:46 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Philippe Chantreau
I understand that the SkS policy is to try to debunk claims made by others which contradict what their bloggers have stated in the articles.
The LINZ article states that only the Sun and Moon have significant gravitational effects on the Earth. The OP article above, tries to state that the gravitational effect of Jupiter causes "bulges and wobbles in the Earth's orbit around the Sun". This is an incorrect statement based on the information given by LINZ.
A five year old could tell you that.
Moderator Response:[DB] The LINZ article is clearly dealing with the effects of the various bodies in the solar system on oceanic tides (liquid bodies of water) on Earth and on short timescales only. Try reading the article for actual context.
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