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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 95001 to 95050:

  1. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    RickG, "I don't doubt you believe that due to your past posting history completely ignoring all evidence presented to you in favor or incredible cherry picking and conflicting statements. How about presenting the "way too much conflicting evidence" you for anthropogenic climate change. And while doing that, please present it in the proper thread here." It only takes one piece of conflicting evidence to disprove a hypothesis, but that aside the key is understanding the energy balance in detail and the role of evaporation, clouds and precipitation that drive the feedback mechanism.
  2. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    pbjamm (RE: 172), "Yes, climate changes, but when it does so it is not random. There are measurable forces that make it happen. If you disagree with the evidence that is presented supporting the anthropogenic cause then please provide an alternative explanation. What do you propose is causing the current change in the climate?" What do you propose caused all the climate change in the past? Can you give me all the details explaining each 100 year period for the last few thousand years? What do you propose changed the climate over the past few thousand years?
  3. Monckton Myth #12: Arctic Temperature Changes
    For any Monckton fans http://www.youtube.com/user/potholer54#p/a/u/1/fbW-aHvjOgM Potholer54 has a go.
  4. It's cooling
    140 Mr Anderson Also read http://www.skepticalscience.com/Phil-Jones-says-no-global-warming-since-1995.htm Your welcome.
  5. It's cooling
    140 Mr Anderson. I think you will find that you are completely wrong. Next you should read this and if you have anynew, and interesting data or comments, add them in the comment section. HTH.
  6. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    RW1 "No, it's pretty meaningless. The point is it shows how much the temps can fluctuate from year to year. That's all. " Nope, you shot yourself in the foot, by doing exactly what I said *all* denialists do-tell us x amount of years is insufficient, then try to prove a trend on the basis of a single year or month-as you just did. Of course month to month & year to year data is variable (though not as much as you try to claim), as heat is being exchanged between the air & the oceans, but over several decades a statistically significant, discernible can be seen-& that trend says the planet is warming. Also, if you look at *all* temperature readings-air, sea surface & deep sea-you see a definite build-up in heat that just can't be made to disappear with denialist hand waving!
  7. Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle
    zinfan94 at 15:52 PM on 19 February, 2011: "It might be worth pinging Roger Pielke Sr. on the subject of this post. RPSr made a series of comments on this site last summer, where he claimed that ocean heat content measurements weren't supporting the planetary heating rate expected by AGW. He hinted revisions to OHC and SLR measurements would support his view." See the links in my comment above. The main problem most readers of this blog will have with his comments is that it only uses the most recent instrumentation systems .... Argo and satellites, so the analysis only goes back to around 2004. If we ignore satellites and only use tide gauges and XBT temp measurements, the analysis is quite different.
  8. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    #171 RW1: I don't doubt the change that's occurring - just the alleged primary anthropogenic cause, which from energy budget/balance standpoint is an incredibly small perturbation. There is just way too much conflicting evidence. I don't doubt you believe that due to your past posting history completely ignoring all evidence presented to you in favor or incredible cherry picking and conflicting statements. How about presenting the "way too much conflicting evidence" you for anthropogenic climate change. And while doing that, please present it in the proper thread here.
  9. Michael H Anderson at 06:44 AM on 21 February 2011
    It's cooling
    Climategate U-turn No warming in 15 years, from the mouth of Phil Jones himself - NEXT!
  10. It's cosmic rays
    The 'its cosmic rays' crowd should be poised for a big couple of weeks. The recent solar flares (coronal mass ejections or CMEs) have arrived on earth, bringing "waves of ionization." More are coming, as the active far side of the sun rotates our way in the next week or two. See 19 Feb and 20 Feb spaceweather.com for a recap. The WUWT crowd is excited by this news, responding with such gems as "Global Temps should go up? (as middle height tropical clouds do not form droplets see svensmark). Interesting to record the time it takes…" So far, some very nice auroral displays. -- spaceweather's Aurora gallery Surface neutron monitors are unimpressed, example here, (approx a -4% change), which is not much compared to this 3x larger event from September 2005. Note these are links to dynamically generated images from the online neutron monitor at Oulu, Finland. These are known as Forbush decreases, as ionizing radiation shields the earth's surface from the normal CR flux. Yes, in another of nature's apparent paradoxes, a solar flare can decrease ground level cosmic ray counts. And the effect on clouds is ...
  11. Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle
    #16 Ken Lambert: "How does this paper fit with NOAA chart which shows flat OHC from ARGO 2003-2010 since the step jump of the 2002-2003 period? See here: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ " The Argo graph you show is for the top 700 meters. Preliminary updated information is discussed by Josh Willis in e-mails to Pielke Sr at http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/02/13/update-of-preliminary-upper-ocean-heat-data-analysis-by-josh-willis-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9Can-unpublished-update%E2%80%9D/ and http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/02/07/where-is-the-missing-argo-upper-ocean-heat-data/ ---------------- The very brief summary is: Argo measures about 0.16 watts/meter-squared (referenced to total earth surface, using the same units as top-of-atmosphere imbalance figures) in the upper 700 meters of ocean. Pukey says 0.095+/-0.062 w/m^2 in the deep ocean. (roughly 0.1w/m^2). 0.16 + 0.1 is much less than the 0.6w/m^2 expected by models for top-of-atmosphere imbalance. (0.6w/m^2 is the old Hansen number). In post #12 above, Zinfan uses the 0.9w/m^2 number of later, improved models, which only increases the gap in closure of the energy budget.
  12. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    RW1 - As pbjamm correctly notes, the climate changes; and we know why. It's changing now; and we know why. There are ranges of uncertainties, there are short term (<10-11 year ENSO and the like) variability, but we know what's going on, and the major driver right now is our excess CO2 raising the temperature of the climate. We have good records of the forcings for the last million years or so that have caused long term changes in climate, and aside from CO2 just about all of them are declining right now. It's us, and there's really no reasonable question about it. Denying that we are having a major effect on our climate (which seems to be the gist of your posts) is simply wishful thinking. I'm not dumbfounded by your position - just saddened.
  13. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    RW1@171 "I'm sorry, the planet is very dynamic - it doesn't do anything but change." Yes, climate changes, but when it does so it is not random. There are measurable forces that make it happen. If you disagree with the evidence that is presented supporting the anthropogenic cause then please provide an alternative explanation. What do you propose is causing the current change in the climate?
  14. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    Rob Honeycutt, "You have to step back from the data for a minute and look at all the lines of evidence. It's not just Arctic sea ice. It's not just the satellite data. It's not just ice mass loss in Greenland. It's not just the measured Arctic amplification. It's not just the measured increase in atmospheric water vapor. It's not just... I could go on and on here. There are thousands of lines of empirical evidence that show quite clearly that what we believe is happening is actually happening. And yet, you still cling to the few anomalies to the massive amount of evidence we do have." I'm sorry, the planet is very dynamic - it doesn't do anything but change. I don't doubt the change that's occurring - just the alleged primary anthropogenic cause, which from energy budget/balance standpoint is an incredibly small perturbation. There is just way too much conflicting evidence. "Honestly, I'm just trying to understand why this is. I'm completely dumbfounded." I can see that.
  15. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    Rob, That's exactly where I was heading when I recalled this is an ice thread, not a temperature thread. Some months ago I posted a graph comparing UAH to GISS temperatures; they do not have the same values (no surprise there), but over the life of the satellite data, their trends are indistinguishable. To use the language of high school algebra: If satellite = good and surface duplicates satellite, then surface = good. As far as 30 years being insufficient to determine natural variability, that's one man's opinion. To misquote, "the trend's the thing."
  16. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    RW1 said... "What exactly is so blatantly obvious? That there's clear downward trend in Artic sea ice since the start of the satellite record, or that anthropogenic global warming is the cause of the decline? The former is not in dispute." You have to step back from the data for a minute and look at all the lines of evidence. It's not just Arctic sea ice. It's not just the satellite data. It's not just ice mass loss in Greenland. It's not just the measured Arctic amplification. It's not just the measured increase in atmospheric water vapor. It's not just... I could go on and on here. There are thousands of lines of empirical evidence that show quite clearly that what we believe is happening is actually happening. And yet, you still cling to the few anomalies to the massive amount of evidence we do have. Honestly, I'm just trying to understand why this is. I'm completely dumbfounded.
  17. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    #167 Absolutely Agree. Huge waste of time w RW1. Can't believe the thread lasted this long.
  18. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    In repsonse to anther poster who said (correctly) that "The trend of summer minima is down and accelerating." RW1 responded with, "How can it be accelerating when the past 3 years have seen a larger summer minimum than the record low of 2007?" I and others have pointed out that the loss of summer Arctic sea ice loss (and volume) is accelerating, when called on this RW1 then says: "I'm not disputing that the documented period we have shows a downward trend, but 30 years is hardly enough data to show whether this is anything significant or just random noise of natural variability." Wow, quite the contradiction and shift of the goal posts. Given that the trend over 32-years is statistically significant, that shows that we do have sufficient data to extract a signal from the 32 years of data. Regarding natural variability, RW1 needs to familiarize himself/herself witht he latest research. For example Polyak et al. (2010) conducted a meta analysis of Arctic paleo records and concluded that: “The current reduction in Arctic ice cover started in the late 19th century, consistent with the rapidly warming climate, and became very pronounced over the last three decades. This ice loss appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years and unexplainable by any of the known natural variabilities.” I have lost cout of how many times RW1 has been shown to be wrong or guilty of misleading or parroting misinformation on this thread. I do not see any interest by RW1 to learn or accept the facts presented to him/her-- I think we all know what such behaviour is called..... I hope that people following this thread see for themselves the contempt that so-called "skeptics" hold for the science and for facts, and how uninterested they are in learning.
  19. I want to earn my future, not inherit it
    Caroza You said: (I frequently find myself feeling grateful for being 49 and not having children, because I won't have to see the worst of it, which is an awful way to think). With GW and all the "Peaks" coming so clearly to my understanding, I keep asking myself why I did not stick to what I thought when I was 15/ 16: I do not want to have children in a world like this". Now, I recently turned 50. But I do have young grown up children I love dearly and I will (and them and all the rest of us) have to see the worst of it. I truly understand your "awful" way to think.
  20. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    muoncounter (RE: 162), All I'm saying is that 30 years is not nearly enough time to establish an accurate range of variability.
  21. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    Rob Honeycutt, "what is so blatantly obvious" What exactly is so blatantly obvious? That there's clear downward trend in Artic sea ice since the start of the satellite record, or that anthropogenic global warming is the cause of the decline? The former is not in dispute.
  22. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    johnkg (RE: 160), "Does this upward trend mean anything to you?" Not much. It's ant crumbs - barely outside the margin of error.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Handwaving and denialism is a poor substitute for facts.
  23. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    Muoncounter... "Sure, satellite data may be 'better' than prior data..." And... the mere fact that the satellite data very closely mirrors the other data sets should give one confidence in all the other data. That's just how it works! It seems far too convenient to dismiss data that you don't want to accept when the data is obviously corroborated via multiple sources.
  24. Skeptic arguments about cigarette smoke - sound familiar?
    Here's a good link illustrating "the tobacco strategy" as used by AGW deniers.
  25. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    Sadly, RW1 has is doing little more than pulling a page from the same tired old denial playbook. Worse still, it's a game that's gone on here before. With 'I don't think its nearly enough' RW1 rejects 30 years of data as an insufficient sample. With 'I'm looking at UAH and RSS,' and 'I tend to only trust satellite on this', RW1 restricts his world to a 30 year dataset, thereby setting up the inevitable infinite loop: Thirty years is all we have; thirty years isn't enough to tell what's happening. We saw this earlier in this thread with ice extent data. Sure, satellite data may be 'better' than prior data (whatever 'better' means here), but that does not mean that prior data are all wrong. I was in the oil business way back in the pencil and paper days; when computer-aided mapping came out, there was a rush to replace anything hand drawn because the computer maps were 'better'. Trouble was, we'd found a heck of a lot of oil and gas with those hand drawn maps. They weren't wrong. In this case, standards exist: "Thirty years was chosen as a period long enough to eliminate year-to-year variations." You don't get to simply declare 'I don't think 30 years is long enough'; that may be your opinion, but if you base your scientific conclusions on opinions, you do so at the risk of all credibility. But this is an ice thread, not a temperature thread. There are plenty of those. Detailed temperature analysis comments should go to the appropriate thread.
  26. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    RW1 - 30 years is plenty of time for statistical significance, as has been well established by looking at the year to year variability. In particular, look at the first figure here, where sea ice minimum extent is multiple standard deviations below previous values and trending steeply downward. I will point out that your repeated "I don't trust anything but the satellite data" statements, joined with your claims that a 1922 article establishes high variability, are rather contradictory. That said, all data is worth something, whether it's Viking reports on sea ice levels from a 1000 years ago or current satellite data - you just have to consider coverage, accuracy, and consistency. The Walsh data drops in accuracy pre-1953, but that's still >50 years of accurate data and best estimates for before that. Now: your initial queries were regarding albedos. That was covered more than extensively on the Lindzen and Choi and the Chemistry of CO2 Absorption threads, not to mention here, where multiple people demonstrated that a simple albedo and gain calculation was insufficient and incorrect for calculating climate response. Exactly what objection to the observed Arctic icecap retreat are you trying to raise? This discussion would benefit greatly from some clarity on that question.
  27. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    #159. Thanks Rob #157. RW1, Does this upward trend mean anything to you?
  28. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    If I take Roy's 13 month running average and put a trend line across the top of it this is what I get.
  29. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    re: 153... I have to say, I always find it interesting that Roy Spencer never adds a trend line to his data.
  30. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    johnkg (RE: 155), "I see a pretty clear upward trend in that graph." No, you are absolutely correct, there is an upward trend of about 3-4 tenths of a degree over the period. Other data sets show a little more, about 4-5 tenths of a degree.
  31. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    I have to say, I am continually fascinated as to how and why people such as RW1 (who is obviously no dummy) can look at the preponderance of evidence pointing to one clear answer, but still look at small pieces of superficially anomalous information (slightly increasing Antarctic sea ice extent) and believe it somehow cast doubt on all the other evidence. I don't mean this to be an indictment of his capacity to comprehend this stuff. That's obviously not the case. But I just don't understand why it's such a challenge to accept what is so blatantly obvious, while at the same time grasping so fearlessly at the smaller contradictions.
  32. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    #153. I see a pretty clear upward trend in that graph. Source data for that graph taken from here: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt. Its the global column (3). Maybe a chartist can bung a line on it and prove me wrong :)
  33. Link to skeptic rebuttals with short URLs
    Great tool for the tweeting world.
  34. Skeptic arguments about cigarette smoke - sound familiar?
    Another analogy is "everyone knows co2 causes warming, but it's not enough to warrant alarm or government regulation"~"everyone knows smoking causes cancer, but 2nd hand smoke is not nearly strong enough to cause problems or warrant government regulation".
  35. Monckton Myth #13: The Magical IPCC
    Moderator, please note that I stated that the proxies were for the NH, at no time have I stated otherwise. Furthermore, we should compare proxy temperatures with proxy temperatures not instrumental records. Personally, I do not care if the temperature in 1010 was slightly hotter or colder than 2010 but we should compare like with like. It is statistically and physically incorrect to compare recent instrumental temperatures with 1000-year old proxies. Marcus, from Figure 6.10c, the rate of rise in proxy temperatures from approximately 950 to 1000 looks very similar to the rate of rise in proxy temperatures from 1940+ but I do not have the original data to make a more accurate comparison. I disagree that my comparison is odius. You have stated other factors appear to have caused the MWP and I do not disagree with these other factors but the fact remains that the MWP was relatively warm (in the NH at least). Why haven't the proxies been updated so that we can compare recent proxies with the 1000-year old proxies? This would also allow comparison between recent proxies and recent instrumental records. I reiterate that Figure 6.10c of AR4 shows similar proxy temperatures 1000 years ago to the most-recent present-day proxies. If anyone has a problem with that then please contact the IPCC; they produced the diagram not me.
  36. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    Marcus (RE: 146), "Thanks for shooting yourself in the foot again RW1.You claim 30 years isn't sufficient data, but apparently a single month is?!?!" No, it's pretty meaningless. The point is it shows how much the temps can fluctuate from year to year. That's all.
  37. Skeptic arguments about cigarette smoke - sound familiar?
    Michael sweet: "Climate skeptic Richard Lindzen has testified in court that the link between tobacco and cancer is not proven." I hadn't heard that. Was that in "Merchants of Doubt"?
  38. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    Marcus, Here is what I'm looking at:
  39. Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle
    HumanityRules #17: You seem to misunderstand my post. It's not about what I like or not, it's just a report of this new study. I'm only reporting what they say in their article. On the mismatch between Purkey & Johnson and this new study, you need to remember that Purkey & Johnson's data is sparse and one point of this new study is to emphasize that there are regional differences in deep ocean warming trends which might be important. The references of the figures used are here quoted from the Song & Colberg article: "Satellite altimeters have observed a global mean SLR of 3.11±0.6 mm/year since 1993 until 2008 [Ablain et al. 2009]." "These in-situ measurements include using conductivity, temperature and depth (CTD) sensors, expendable bathythermographs (XBT), and Argo floats (Argo), which give a rate of 1.2±0.8 mm/year for the same period [Willis et al. 2004; 2008; 2009; Ishii and Kimoto 2009]." "In addition, GRACE (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data infer an ocean-mass change of 0.85±0.5 mm/year over 2002-2008, after corrected by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model [Paulson et al., 2007]."
  40. Link to skeptic rebuttals with short URLs
    Really useful. Very easy.
  41. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    18 Tom Curtis Your problem is that pointing out accurate facts is considered disengenious. At no point in #16 do I suggest what is forcing climate change today. As you suggest Holocene Climactic Optimum is an example of polar amplification forced naturally. It may give you palpitations but it's true.
  42. A Swift Kick in the Ice
    RW1: Seriously, if I'm to believe that complex of a series of factors is likely causing the Antarctic sea ice to grow inspite of 'global warming', why should I not believe that an equally numerous and complex series of factors, and not primarily 'global warming, is what's causing the Artic sea ice to melt? It has already been pointed out to you several times now that the geography is significantly different. The Arctic is significantly warmer than the Antarctic because of those differences. Remember "Global Average Temperature" means exactly what it says. Its that average of global temperatures. The earth does not heat or cool evenly. Why would we expect it to do so. (*BTW, I don't doubt the reasons for the Antarctic increasing sea ice extent are numerous and complex, nor do I doubt that many of the listed mechanisms could very well be playing a role.). Everyone has been presenting evidence to help you understand why there is a difference between the mechanisms in play at the poles. So far you have ignored all of the evidence and simply stated you don't believe. A true skeptic would recognize that evidence, weigh it, ask questions and express concerns if any. How about in the spirit of learning and understanding you give us specific empirical evidence why you don't believe. "observed" in what way? I tend to only trust the satellite data on this. If you only trust satellite data, then why do you cling to a 1922 anecdotal news article and throw out instrumental records in favor of proxy's in the MWP graph. 3 or 4 tenths of degree warming in 30 years is the most rapid warming ever observed? Actually it is more than that which has already been pointed out to you. Can you show data to the contrary?
  43. Miriam O'Brien (Sou) at 01:18 AM on 21 February 2011
    Link to skeptic rebuttals with short URLs
    Hey, that's excellent. I often post links to these topics and the short urls make it a lot easier.
  44. Link to skeptic rebuttals with short URLs
    Just waiting for Pop Tech to post up that these are not real short URLs ;)
  45. Skeptic arguments about cigarette smoke - sound familiar?
    A poor attempt to tar all sceptics with the big tobacco brush.
    Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Mac is making use of analogy; taking a generalization to be all-inclusionary does not necessarily follow. Nice mental imagery, though, with the "tar" & "tobacco brush" verbiage.
  46. Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle
    Avi, This seems like an extraordinary over simplification. You like the model result but fail to mention that Purkey & Johnson have attempted to use observational data to do exactly the same. They find 0.14(0.053+0.093)mm/yr SLR from the deep. That's close to a magnitude lower than the model. If the model fails to match the data shouldn't we question the model? I like the confidence of the title for this article but it seems completely misplaced. Ari I'm also curious where you got the two estimates for the first paragraph? Apart from the fact that you didn't state any dates for those estimates I'm not aware of any recent attempts to close the sea level budget in the literature that gave those figures. Here's four recent one's I've found which focus on the 2003-2007 period. Could you provide a reference for the numbers you use? Chang et al (2010) STERIC −0.11±0.22 MASS 0.70±0.34 TOT 2.67±0.52 Willis et al. (2008) STERIC −0.5±0.5 MASS 0.8±0.8 TOT 3.6±0.8 Leuliette and Miller (2009) STERIC 0.8±0.8 MASS 0.8±0.5 TOT 2.4±1.1(2.7±1.5) Cazenave et al. (2009) STERIC 0.37±0.1 MASS 1.9±0.1 TOT 2.5±0.4
  47. Link to skeptic rebuttals with short URLs
    awesome cool John!
  48. Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle
    zinfan94 #12 How does this paper fit with NOAA chart which shows flat OHC from ARO 2003-2010 since the step jump of the 2002-2003 period? See here: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
  49. Captain Pithart at 22:36 PM on 20 February 2011
    Link to skeptic rebuttals with short URLs
    very nice, thank you! p.
  50. Skeptic arguments about cigarette smoke - sound familiar?
    @Sphaerica: Good point. Smoking puts more particulate matter in to the atmosphere, which, in turn, reflects incomming sunlight, thus cooling the earth. So, if you care about global warming, smoke 'em if you've got 'em!

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