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hedron at 01:12 AM on 10 October 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
>humans add extra CO2 without removing any.
But humans do remove co2. It's called farming.
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MA Rodger at 21:01 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Concerning the claims up-thread by CThopmspn of the basis for a 97% consensus being "all cherry-picking, symmatic gymnastics, inconsistent methodologies and all pretty dishonest," I note the main object of his criticism Doran & Zimmerman (2009) is only linked to its 'abstract' (or actually its first paragraph. The full (but brief) paper describing the survey is on-line here.
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Eclectic at 20:18 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson ,
insight is not your strong suit, apparently. Your claim of familiarity with carbon isotopes etcetera, is not congruous with your dismissal of mainstream physics & biology.
Just as (by analogy) someone who claims familiarity with mathematics . . . yet who alleges that 2+2=3 . . . is someone who is a tad less expert than he supposes.
But perhaps, CThompson, you can achieve some credibility by staying on topic. [Short musical interlude here, while orchestra plays Pride of Erin B . . . and readers wait for you to also mention Galileo, as well.] You have been repeatedly asked to say something substantive about the scientific consensus, to back your "beliefs". But you have produced nothing, so far.
A good start would be, if you can name a list of some credible scientists who have produced some evidence that the mainstream science is seriously incorrect. (And you must show what that evidence is ~ not just handwave at something unspecified.) If at all possible, please list a sufficiency of names to demonstrate that these alleged contrarians exist in numbers way beyond 1% of climate scientists. Would 20% "climate-skeptical" genuine climate scientists be achievable for you? Otherwise, surely your consensus claim falls flat on its face.
Hint: don't bother to use the delusional citizen-scientist crackpots, such as Lord Monckton, Dr Tim Ball, or (the late) John Coleman . . . 'cos they ain't no scientists !
And bear in mind, that the evidence is even more important than the exact percentage of contrarians. And that is where the contrarian scientists make a double Fail ~ their numbers are shrinking and their hypotheses [cosmic rays; 100-year oceanic cycles; Lindzen's "Iris" ; etcetera] have failed the reality test.
CThompson, the consensus exists because the evidence is clear.
I can see that you believe what you want to believe ~ and I was never under the illusion that you would be convinced by anything factual.
BTW, CThompson, you can educate me on one point ~ what is the meaning of the word "symmantic" which you use so often e.g. the "symmantic gymnastics" you mention in your last paragraph of #841 . The OED failed to list the word. Is it a new term for the latest display trick by that amazing young gymnast Ms Simone Biles ?
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CThompson at 16:23 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Even though I know this comment likely won't even see the light of day as it will be construed as "inflammatory", even though yours is likewise and remains, by making assumptions about my education and knowledge, I'll give this a try anyway.
Eclectic at 12:42 PM on 9 October, 2019
CThompson ,
Interesting, that you don't recognize your own anger. Anger is the underlying emotion in almost all "contrarians" ~ anger that the mainstream science shows that the Earth is Round rather than the politically-correct Flatness which the contrarians desire.
Actually, I believe the "politically-correct" description would apply to the Earth is Round crowd, in your analogy. Further, there was never even such thing as anyone believing the world was flat and, that is a myth, just like the 97% claim.
Perhaps the isotopes Carbon-12 and Carbon-13 are not so very obvious to you, CThompson, but that is all the more excuse for you to go inform yourself - educate yourself - about carbon sources, carbon dioxide, the carbon cycles, photosynthesis & enzymatic affinities, etcetera. Then you will see why you are wrong, and the climate scientists are right.
Actually, I'm quite familiar with carbon-12 and carbon-13, as well as carbon sources, carbon dioxide, the carbon cycles, photosynthesis and enzymatic affinities. But, this is exactly why I can never take seriously those who advocate global warming/climate change. Their condescending, smug attitude which makes them believe they're the most brilliant people on the face of the planet and no one should even dare challenge them. I thought this discussion was supposed to be about the so-called "consensus", rather than your assumptions about my level of education or my knowledge. You have no idea what my level of education is or what level of knowledge it is I have. And, while my one comment is snipped and flagged as being "inflammatory", your assumptions concerning my education and my knowledge, which could also be construed as "inflammatory", is allowed to remain. But, what can I expect? If one is all for the global warming/climate change hysteria, one can be as inflammatory as one wants. If one isn't, they're shut down.Now, why don't you elaborate a little further on what it is carbon-12 and carbon-13 have to do with anything? If you're suggesting someone can determine what carbon dioxide it is that comes from the tailpipe of a Dodge Dart or that which comes from a decaying tree or that which comes from a forest fire has anything to do with carbon-12 or carbon-13, I believe you are mistaken.
How many climate scientists are there? Certainly more than 79. Depending on definition, there are hundreds . . . thousands . . . tens of thousands . . . even more. There is no precise cut-off between climate scientists and "non-climate" scientists. There is a spectrum ranging from the most expert (who do climate research & publish papers in reputable scientific journals) through to scientists whose area of expertise is only distantly related to climate. And on through to the almost-famous "wood engineer" who, many years ago, signed the laughable Oregon Petition of 19,000+ people possessing a science degree, who denounced AGW. (Denounced AGW, based on almost zero expertise in the field of climate science.)
Relevantly, CThompson, the consensus studies show that the more climate science expertise a scientist has, the more likely he is to agree with the consensus.
That is why, CThompson, you have failed to present an impressive list of names of (sane and credible) climate scientists who are not in the 99% consensus. Because they are way less than 1%. And if, from such a potential list, you subtracted :- the "Emeritus" elderly dodderers, the political extremists, the fundamentalist religious extremists, and the delusional citizen-scientist crackpots . . . then you would have close to zero real scientists left on your list. That's why the consensus is more like 99% than 97% .
Actually, I find the term "climate science" and "climate scientists" to be a misnomer in the first place as I don't believe for a second they know as much about the climate and those mechanisms which drive it as they THINK they know. I don't think "climate scientist" even fits. I believe, for one to be a "climate scientist", one would have to be proficient in almost all, if not all, principles of science. And, I don't believe there's anyone in the world who's smart enough to be proficient in ALL principles of science. They'd have to know how cosmic forces impact our climate, they'd have to know how plants and animals impact our climate, they'd have to know how the many forces that shape this planet impact our climate and, multitudes of other things. That they simply average out temperatures for a 30 year period or precipitation levels over a 30 year period and call themselves "climate scientists" doesn't seem to shed true light on what is needed to understand the climate and what drives it. Now, lastly, your anger is quite clear. Anger is what compels you to make assumptions about my education and knowledge and anger compels you to make smug and condescending statements and acting like no one should even dare challenge you because you're a brilliant know-it-all and there's absolutely no way you're wrong. You know who else believed they were know-it-alls? People who challenged Erin Brockovich. She had no formal legal training and everyone else thought they were so much smarter than her. But, of course, we all know how that turned out.
(P.S. Just so you know, I don't have to present to you anything, to believe what I believe. But, you're certainly going to have to do better than presenting symmantic gymnastics, as demonstrated in the Doran study, to convince me. See, things are the way they are and, if you want people to believe you in order to initiate change, it's you that has to convince them, not the other way around. I don't have to present anything to believe what I believe, you've got to present something convincing to me, to make me believe differently. Thanks.)
Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
Moderation complaints, inflammatory tone and baiting snipped. -
Tom Dayton at 13:45 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson: Your six-step definition of science is naively simplistic, narrow, and exclusive. To support it you need to show us photos of astronomers experimentally creating alternate versions of neutron stars. Experimentation is but one useful tool in the toolbox of science. Climatologists have done a huge number of experiments on thousands of aspects of climatology, going all the way back, for example, to Eunice Foote in 1856.
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Eclectic at 12:42 PM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson ,
Interesting, that you don't recognize your own anger. Anger is the underlying emotion in almost all "contrarians" ~ anger that the mainstream science shows that the Earth is Round rather than the politically-correct Flatness which the contrarians desire.
Anger is an emotion leading to Motivated Reasoning ~ where even some very intelligent people (such as yourself) manage to bamboozle themselves with rhetoric & false logic & semantic confusion . . . and manage to deny the "bleeding obvious".
Perhaps the isotopes Carbon-12 and Carbon-13 are not so very obvious to you, CThompson, but that is all the more excuse for you to go inform yourself - educate yourself - about carbon sources, carbon dioxide, the carbon cycles, photosynthesis & enzymatic affinities, etcetera. Then you will see why you are wrong, and the climate scientists are right.
How many climate scientists are there? Certainly more than 79. Depending on definition, there are hundreds . . . thousands . . . tens of thousands . . . even more. There is no precise cut-off between climate scientists and "non-climate" scientists. There is a spectrum ranging from the most expert (who do climate research & publish papers in reputable scientific journals) through to scientists whose area of expertise is only distantly related to climate. And on through to the almost-famous "wood engineer" who, many years ago, signed the laughable Oregon Petition of 19,000+ people possessing a science degree, who denounced AGW. (Denounced AGW, based on almost zero expertise in the field of climate science.)
Relevantly, CThompson, the consensus studies show that the more climate science expertise a scientist has, the more likely he is to agree with the consensus.
That is why, CThompson, you have failed to present an impressive list of names of (sane and credible) climate scientists who are not in the 99% consensus. Because they are way less than 1%. And if, from such a potential list, you subtracted :- the "Emeritus" elderly dodderers, the political extremists, the fundamentalist religious extremists, and the delusional citizen-scientist crackpots . . . then you would have close to zero real scientists left on your list. That's why the consensus is more like 99% than 97% .
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CThompson at 10:45 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Estoma at 21:29 PM on 25 August, 2019
I've been lurking here at Skeptical Science and Real Climate since their inception. One of the first things I learned was about the natural carbon cycle. Put that part aside. The emmissions being talked about are the ones created by fossil fuels. That CO2 has a different signature from the natural CO2.
Uhmmm...emissions by fossil fuels ARE natural CO2. Emissions from fossil fuels are being released in many different forms. When a field is plowed, emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. When a street is being paved, emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. When tree leaves deccompose, emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. Emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels aren't released exclusively when someone punches the gas pedal on an automobile or runs an engine in an industry. There are likely a limitless number of mechanisms for which emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels are released. All carbon has to do is mix with oxygen and you have CO2. When a dust storm happens, there's like emissions (CO2) from fossil fuels being released. So, I don't know where you're getting this CO2 from fossil fuels as being somehow different than so-called "natural" CO2. And, no, there is no different signature between CO2 from fossil fuels and so-called "natural" CO2. CO2 is CO2, whether it comes from the tailpipe of a 1972 Dodge Dart or out of a volcano or, out of the smokestack of industry or, from a forest fire. It's all carbon and oxygen. CO2...carbon atom, two oxygen atoms. There's no distinctive markers that describe where it comes from.
Moderator Response:[DB] "there is no different signature between CO2 from fossil fuels and so-called "natural" CO2"
Incorrect. Scientists know conclusively through its distinctive isotopic signature that all of the postindustrial rise in atmospheric concentration of CO2 is from human activities.
Per Rubino et al 2013,
"as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the ice go up after 1800 AD, the carbon isotopic composition of that same carbon dioxide goes down. The change in the isotopic composition is somewhat startling - the atmosphere is happily chugging along at around -6.5‰ and then nosedives to -8.5‰ by 2012"
And
"There is really no way around it. Since the dawn of the industrial age, humans have taken carbon locked in organic material and released it into the atmosphere. That burning added huge volumes of carbon dioxide (in 2014, 44 billion tonnes) that all has highly negative carbon isotopic composition. Carbon dioxide goes up, the carbon isotopic composition goes down, all recorded in the ice at the poles."
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2014/
https://skepticalscience.com/From-eMail-Bag-Carbon-Isotopes-Part-1.html
https://www.skepticalscience.com/From-eMail-Bag-Carbon-Isotopes-Part-2.html
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50668
"These declines in δ13CO2 and Δ14CO2 (called the Suess Effect; Keeling, 1979; Suess, 1955) are linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels, such as the vast coal deposits of the Carboniferous period, are composed of the organic remains of organ-isms (mainly plants) that lived millions of years ago. Plants preferentially take up 12C over 13C so have low δ13C (e.g. Farquhar et al., 1989), with most oil deposits having values of −32‰ to −21‰ and coal deposits −26‰ to −23‰ (Sharp, 2007). Consequently, CO2 from fossil fuels contains on average 2% less 13C per mole than atmospheric CO2 (Keeling, 1979). Extraction and burning of these fossil fuel reserves releases this 12C-enriched carbon back into the atmosphere, leading to a decline in δ13CO2. Old carbon from fossil fuels is also virtually free of 14C (Keeling, 1979), since the time between being deposited in the fossil record and burning is many thousands of half-lives of 14C, so the release of this old carbon will lead to a decline in Δ14CO2 in the atmosphere. δ13C changes in the atmosphere have been vital in allowing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conclude there is a ‘very high confidence’ that the dominant cause of the observed increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere since the 19th century has been the human burning of fossil fuels (IPCC, 2013)."
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CThompson at 10:15 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
Eclectic @834
Why get myself angry about the Doran study?
First, who says I'm "angry"? Second, if they have to overstate the reality with symmatic gymnastics with respect to the Doran study to try and make it appear more dramatic than what it really is, why should I not believe all the rest of them aren't doing the same? They come off with this "97%" figure, hoping people won't actually look at the study and realize that only 79 climate scientists were actually participating in the study and that is pretty much an infinitesimally small number compared to the total number of climate scientists that are in the world. I call that dishonesty and shady. And then, other people take that 97% and try and make it out as if that 97% is indicative of the opinions of the total number of climate scientists in the world when, in reality, it's only the opinion of 75 out of 77 climate scientists in the world. Third, I'm not buying your claim that it's 99%, that there is overwhelming consilient evidence nor, that there are hardly any "climate-skeptical" scientists remaining. Again, this is all likely derived from the same shenanigans pulled in the Doran study. We know they pulled something similar in going through supposed "peer-reviewed" abstracts in the Oreskes, 2004 study which was criticized for overstating the level of consensus acceptance within the examined abstracts so, this pretty much seems to be a pattern and I just don't find myself taking it seriously. It's all cherry-picking, symmatic gymnastics, inconsistent methodologies and all pretty dishonest.Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering and accusations of impropriety snipped.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Daniel Bailey at 09:47 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
There has long been a consensus among climate scientists, based on multiple types of scientific evidence, that greenhouse gas emissions are altering the Earth’s climate. The strength of the scientific consensus on climate change has been established by numerous research studies employing a variety of methods, including surveys of scientists (Carlton et al., 2015; Doran & Zimmermann, 2009; Rosenberg et al., 2010; Stenhouse et al., 2014; Verheggen et al., 2014), analysis of public statements in scientific assessment reports and multi-signatory statements about climate change (Anderegg et al., 2010), and analysis of peer-reviewed studies about climate change (Cook et al., 2013; Oreskes, 2004). These peer-reviewed studies demonstrate a consensus among climate science experts that humans are causing global warming. Estimates of the extent of the consensus among experts—climate scientists who publish peer-reviewed climate research—vary between 90 to 100%; as of 2016 the best estimate, based on a number of studies, was 97% (Cook et al., 2016).
NASA’s climate change website presents the state of scientific knowledge about climate change. This includes a webpage on the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change, which captures the robust nature of the scientific consensus by citing multiple peer-reviewed studies from research groups across the world. This approach for assessing and portraying the veracity and consensus of a research result, in this case the scientific consensus on climate change, is consistent with NASA’s scientific research portfolio – namely the reliance on up to date peer-reviewed scientific literature.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
Here’s a recap of the published research articles appearing in peer-reviewed refereed journals examining the ever-strengthening, consilient consensus present in the primary literature:
A. Oreskes et al 2004 - The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Science 03 Dec 2004, Vol. 306, Issue 5702, pp. 1686; DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686B. Doran and Zimmerman 2009 - Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
EOS, Volume 90, Issue 3, Pages 22–23, doi: 10.1029/2009EO030002
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2009EO030002C. Anderegg et al 2010 - Expert credibility in climate change
PNAS, vol. 107 no. 27, 12107–12109, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107
https://www.pnas.org/content/107/27/12107.fullD. Rosenberg et al 2010 - Climate change: a profile of US climate scientists’ perspectives
Climatic Change, August 2010, Volume 101, Issue 3–4, pp 311–329; DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9709-9
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-009-9709-9E. Cook et al 2013 - Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
Environmental Research Letters, 15 May 2013, Volume 8, Number 2; doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024F. Verheggen et al 2014 - Scientists’ Views about Attribution of Global Warming
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2014, 48 (16), pp 8963–8971, doi: 10.1021/es501998e
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es501998eG. Stenhouse et al 2014 - Meteorologists' Views About Global Warming: A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014, Volume 95 No. 7, pp 1029–1040, doi: 10.1175/ BAMS-D-13-00091.1
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00091.1H. Carlton et al 2015 - The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists
Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (2015) 094025, pp 1–12, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094025
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094025/metaI. Cook et al 2016 - Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 048002, pp 1–7, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002/metaAlso linked from NASA’s Scientific Consensus page, but worthy of repeating, a list of scientific organizations that hold the position that Climate Change has been caused by human activities and actions.
https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
http://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.htmlIn essence, there aren’t any (as in none, not even one) national or international scientific societies disputing the conclusion that most of the warming since 1950 is very likely to be due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.
To sum: the science underlying and affirming the human-causation is based on over 170 years of research, research integral to the science forming the structural framework of our modern world today.
From weather balloons to airplanes, from Pershing-2 to cruise missiles guidance and delivery systems, from CD & DVD players to microwave ovens, and from cellphones, GPS locators, HD TVs and the Internet, the radiative physics of CO2 pervasively form the bedrock underpinning our technology today.
And the ever-strengthening, consilient consensus present in the primary literature merely acknowledges that.
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Eclectic at 09:33 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
CThompson @833 ,
Why get yourself angry about the Doran study?
Any online survey, taken strictly on its own, is not necessarily worth much. However, the Doran study is not an outlier :- all of the ["non-online"] consensus surveys give pretty much the same result of overwhelming consensus.
Even a 97% figure is a bit out of date in 2019, and is now actually well over 99%.
As I mentioned in a couple of posts [above] : the thread here about consensus is really just an indirect way of examining the mainstream climate science. There are hardly any "climate-skeptical" scientists remaining.
Forty years ago, there was space for scientists to be skeptical about AGW ~ but the current state of "overwhelming consilient evidence" is so clear-cut that "contrarians" have nothing left apart from empty rhetoric to support their so-called position/positions.
That is why hardly any "contrarian" scientists remain.
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timh18468 at 08:52 AM on 9 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
There seems to have emerged a near-consensus among economists that a declining discount rate should be used--going toward zero over time, that is. https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/8/2/145/2888825
Helpfully, with a declining discount rate, the results are not quite as sensitive to the initial rate chosen.
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CThompson at 08:12 AM on 9 October 2019There is no consensus
That you guys bring in the Doran study and this 97% BS is just laughable and renders any of your claims irrelevant and not to be taken seriously.
This Doran study was an online survey in which 10,257 earth scientists were asked to participate. Of those 10,257 asked to participate, 3,146 actually completed the survey. And, out of those 3,146, 79 were climate scientists that had also published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change . And, this is where they get their "97%" from, that 76 of 79 had answered "risen" to question 1, "When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?" and, 75 of 77 answered "yes" to the question 2, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" So, apparently, not even all of the 79 individuals in that category even answered question 2 but, instead, only 77 answered it. Also, surely, since I'm quite positive there are WAY more than a total of 79 climate scientists in this world? What's 76 out of 79 climate scientists saying anything even really mean? That's like taking a town that has 500 people in it and saying the opinions of three people in that town is relevant and of significant importance.
And, since I'm sure all the other studies cited are essentially the same as the Doran study and consist of, likely, essentially the same scientists that participated in the Doran study? I find the only "myth" here is the 97% claim.
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory snipped.
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nigelj at 07:52 AM on 9 October 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40, 2019
Ecomomists obviousy do useful work, but how do they come up with a 5% discount rate related to the climate issue? How can anyone confidently predict such a high and optimistic rate so far ahead in time? Reliable long term prediction has not been the economist's greatest strength.
Interest rates are very low currently with little sign this is going to change. High returns have been in speculative assets, a thing that cannot be guaranteed longer term. The physical realities suggest it's going to be very difficult maintaining an ever expanding economy that would support high returns.
While I'm no economist, some things start to scream out as being dubious even to laypeople. Perhaps some expert can put me right. Perhaps I'm naive, or missinterpreting the discount rate, or haven't seen the light.
Of course as the article suggests there is also merit in deliberately choosing a lower discount rate. Heavens above are we allowed to do that?! Will it offend some economist?
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william5331 at 05:08 AM on 9 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
I wonder if, in the future, as the Arctic Ocean accumulates more heat and more open water, if we might see a sort of Walker cell develop between the ocean and the ice sheet. Warm moist air rises off the ocean, bathes the ice sheet, causing the water vapor to condense out in dew and cooling the air which rushes down the slope back to the sea. Remember water vapor is lighter than air (60%) so the removal of the water vapor from the air augments the cooling to make the air in contact with the ice even heavier. Then you have latent heat. From vapor to water it is 540cal/g while from water to ice it is 80cal/g. In other words, a kg of water condensing out of the air gives out enough heat to melt a little over 6 kg of ice.
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Brockagh at 19:02 PM on 8 October 2019The science isn't settled
Regarding the plane falling out of the sky analogy... If you had to get on one of two planes, would you pick the one with a tem percent chance of survival or the one with a 90 percent chance of survival.
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nigelj at 10:24 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
OPOF @4, yes its always worth a try rebutting climate denialism and explaining the bigger picture. Of course denialists will never or rarely change their minds in public in an internet discussion, because nobody likes to loose face, and this creates an impression denialists never change their minds, but some of them probably do change their minds. Here is an example of some who have:
www.theinertia.com/environment/heres-how-the-evidence-changed-a-climate-change-skeptics-mind/
www.theguardian.com/science/2012/jul/29/climate-change-sceptics-change-mind
Of course PC is also quite right. You get a lot of that.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:10 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
nigelj and Philippe,
My response is: By being aware of the fuller story you can respond quicker to anyone who tries to use the cherry-picked claim (or any other misleading marketing tactic). Rapidly correcting someone by introducing them to information they were unaware of, or did not want others to be aware of, can be very effective.
Of course, some people will just get angry. That is a common response to being corrected. But, as is often pointed out in comments here, others may be watching who benefit from the interaction. They get to see who can be more trusted to tell the fuller story and who tries to promote or maintain a misleading made-up belief.
That knowledge of the fuller story can also be used to determine how much an information provider may have been influenced by Edward S. Herman's Propaganda Model presented in the book and movie "Manufacturing Consent".
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:18 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
There is no answer because there is no good way to deal with those who argue in bad faith and whose only guiding principle is "anything goes."
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richieb1234 at 08:48 AM on 8 October 2019It's the sun
MA Rodger: Thanks for the additional information.
My only point is that the "myth" thermometer on the left of the front page is a key part of the SS website's message. When a viewer clicks on one of those myths, they should find a blatant statement of the myth from a climate denier. The BBC quote doesn't pass that test.
The quotes above from Whitehouse also don't show he is claiming that "it's the sun." In these quotes, Whitehouse is apparently claiming that the sun was a big factor in past climate changes, but not recent changes. That is an accurate claim.
I just think there must be a better quote somewhere to illustrate this myth.
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nigelj at 06:34 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
OPOF @1, I was thinking exactly the same thing. Its a perplexing problem because science is complex like this, but this provides so many ways denialists can cherry pick and attack. Yet is the science is not fully and openly discussed in all its complexity and nuance, that's not good either. There does not seem to be an easy answer to this dilemma, other than the slow unfolding of increasingly obvious climate change, that makes the denialists look increasingly stupid.
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Estoma at 06:03 AM on 8 October 2019Climate's changed before
Thank you Danial for the graphs. You come up with lots of good stuff.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:31 AM on 8 October 2019How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2019
Another detailed presentation that is likely to have cherry-picking applied by climate science deniers and delayers.
The reported Surface Mass Balance is all they need to, want to, see and hear about. It indicates that Greenland ice is increasing, as long as the fuller story is never sought out.
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allan savory at 01:39 AM on 8 October 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
I have only now become aware of your criticism of my work addressing global desertification and climate change. I seriously value and share your motive as a very sceptical scientist myself, but am sorry you did not treat this more seriously. In what is frankly extremely sloppy scholarship you state dogmatically - " Quite simply, it is not possible to increase productivity, increase numbers of cattle and store carbon using any grazing strategy, never-mind Holistic Management." If you are serious, as I am, about global desertification and climate change, then please do not judge sixty years of work published in the 3rd edition of the textbook Holistic Management, on a 20 minute talk covering only one main point. That point being that only livestock and the holistic planned grazing process (or better when developed) can now save civilization as we know it.
I have no intention of debating you here when you have not even read the book. For your interest when you do and we engage in discussion, please take note of the policy chapter. Firstly that will get you realising the Holistic Management framework that enables us to manage complexity at any level from household to governance is not some sort of grazing strategy as you believe. How would you use any grazing strategy to analyse any or all of the US government’s natural resource and other policies?
As you read, you will learn that far-sighted officials in the USDA commissioned me over two years to put some 2,000 scientists and others through a week of training in the use of the Holistic Management framework. Those came from all land management agencies, faculty members from US universities, World Bank, USAID and more and they brought hundreds of their own policies to the training. They, not me, analysed their own policies and found not one that would work and would not lead to unintended consequences. One group in training made a unanimous agreed statement we published –“We now recognize that unsound resource management is universal in the United States”. I am sure you recognize that such analysis is simply not possible with what you have mistakenly assumed is Holistic Management of which you are critical.
Further information for you. In the training of that large sample of scientists from some with basic degrees to Professors and others with two or more higher degrees, we allowed an hour every day of the week for them to concentrate entirely on finding any flaws they could in either the logic or science in Holistic Management framework that enables us for the first time to manage complexity. Early on this helped mainly clarify what people were battling to grasp and also highlighted a couple of logical flaws thus enabling those thousands of scientists to assist us in fine-tuning the framework, and the Holistic Planned Grazing process used when livestock are required to reverse desertification. And as I explained in the TED Talk you criticise, only livestock can now save civilization as we know it. Even if you forget entirely about our destabilisation of the climate and think only of global desertification that alone has destroyed many civilizations and now poses a global threat. And if you or any scientist you know anywhere in the world can explain how we could prevent desertification, or reverse it, using all the tools available to us in our reductionist management then please do so. As you know, we only have technology, fire or conservation (resting the environment to allow recovery). Other than that all the world’s scientists have ever come up with is using technology to plant trees, shrubs or grasses. Two of these fire and resting the environment lead to global desertification and no technology even imaginable can ever restore rapid biological decay over about two thirds of the world’s land every year. So if you have some other tool humans could use please help us by telling the world. Only today have I been photographing the severe desertification taking place in the truly vast teak forests around me in Africa – larger than some countries in Europe – and wishing I had the armchair critics to explain what point there would be in planting more trees in such dense desertifying forests.
Please read the book and then discuss if need be what you find wrong in the Holistic Management framework or its application to manage complexity in any walk of life. And by the way here we have done what you say is impossible and we have the most amazing regeneration of the land after 16 dry years with this the worst in memory and we did this by increasing from 100 head of cattle to 500 and now are having to increase to 1,000 just to keep pace with the production of the land. So what you say is impossible is being done and you are welcome any time to visit. Have a look at this one minute video https://youtu.be/ntzCnpYhM3I -
Daniel Bailey at 01:17 AM on 8 October 2019Climate's changed before
"I was unable to find temperature graph for the world outside of the Arctic that went beyound 2000"
That can seemingly be an obstacle, but global reconstructions are becoming more common, depending upon the time period you're interested in. For example, these are useful summaries (sources used listed on each):
As always, clicking on the images should make them bigger.
Images from Bruce Railsback's Fundamentals of Quaternary Science.
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MA Rodger at 00:38 AM on 8 October 2019It's the sun
Further to #1272.
The link to that "latest analysis".
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MA Rodger at 00:37 AM on 8 October 2019It's the sun
ricieb1234 @1271,
Do note that the author of the BBC item quoted in the 'Myth' is David Whitehouse who is now known to be a fully paid-up member of the denialist squad. His take-away message in 2004 was:-
"This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun's latest attempt to warm the Earth."
Yet this "latest analysis" informing the 2004 BBC article by Whitehouse concludes with the warning:-
"we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades."
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Estoma at 23:58 PM on 7 October 2019Climate's changed before
I figured the genisus was "from the strong & steady rise with a clear ongoing causation by CO2." What flumoxed me was that the warming had occured at light speed; world wide from what I read. I didn't realize that had been any case like this during this inter glacial period. I'll have to add a cavet from now on when I make the unprecedented warming statement.
It appears that today's temperature is still higher than it was 13,000 years ago but I was unable to find temperature graph for the world outside of the Arctic that went beyound 2000.
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Eclectic at 23:31 PM on 7 October 2019Climate's changed before
Estoma @790 ,
I am not sure whether you are comparing arctic-localized (e.g. Greenland ice-core temperature proxies) changes with worldwide changes of smaller degree.
There were also steep rises in Greenhouse gasses (especially methane) and giant meltwater pulses affecting sea-level & the oceanic heat transfer from the tropics. All producing rapid fluctuation (see the Younger Dryas ). Still, one needs to ask: what caused the melting of land ice-sheets ~ if it wasn't caused by cumulative effect of gradually increasing Greenhouse effect? (That is a question that the "skeptics" don't wish to ask.)
The present-day rapid worldwide warming is not part of a transient up-and-down fluctuation, but is a strong & steady rise with a clear ongoing causation by CO2. World temperature has (compared with the gentle & slight variations of the past 10,000 years of the Holocene) now abruptly risen higher than the Holocene Maximum and is still rising steeply. And has occurred at a time (of roughly 5,000 years' duration) where the natural background tendency is toward ongoing global cooling.
Altogether, the two cases (of B-A events versus nowadays) are so very different in their long-term importance, that it is perfectly fair to say that current-day gobal warming is unprecedented in its character ( and in its human causation !! )
I think your "skeptic" is indulging in some Motivated Reasoning, and playing with words, in order to conceal the plain physical truth of what is happening globally.
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richieb1234 at 22:21 PM on 7 October 2019It's the sun
This quote from BBC is misleading. The full quote is:
"The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer. Over the past 20 years, however, the number of sunspots has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase."
That's a pretty fair description of the situation in 2004, when the BBC article appeared. The professor they quote is also right to state that solar activity in the past 60 years exceeds any period of time in the last millennium.
I suggest you find a skeptic quote that actually does incorrectly atribute recent rises in global average temperature to increases in solar activity. The BBC quote doesn't.
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Estoma at 21:54 PM on 7 October 2019Climate's changed before
Bølling-Allerød seems to be a period when rapid warming far beyound today's was powered by heat from warm waters originating from the deep North Atlantic Ocean. It seems to have nothing to do with CO2. This was pointed out to me by a skeptic after I claimed that present day warming is unprecented. Reading up I discovered that from what researchers could determine the temperature rose more than a degree in less than a year and 3 to 4 degrees Celcius over a short period of time. Needless to say I was surprised by this as well as finding nothing in the Skeptical Science search.
Can you recommend an article on the subject.
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MA Rodger at 19:24 PM on 7 October 2019Welcome to Skeptical Science
carol.l.dona @67,
The paper you cite is available on-line - Eyring et al (2019) 'Taking climate model evaluation to the next level'. Its message is that the increased number and complexity of models will require better evaluation of the models or we will be drowned in a wider spread of model results.
"The growing number and complexity of models, the expanding suite of outputs they produce, the multitude of downstream applications and the growing availability of observational datasets drive a need for more routine and systematic evaluation, utilizing a comprehensive set of existing model performance metrics and diagnostics. Newly developed CMIP evaluation tools [18,19] will ultimately enhance our ability to identify model errors, to investigate their causes and to quantify and potentially reduce projection uncertainties.
"In this Perspective, we summarize key advances since AR5 and key scientific opportunities for improving climate model analyses that will be assessed in the AR6. Our focus is on gaps in the understanding of systematic errors, the development of CMIP model evaluation tools, emergent constraints and weighting methods. We also address the need for more user- and policy-oriented model evaluation at the regional scale required for impact studies. Finally, we discuss how the scientific community might provide more robust climate model information and more tightly constrained model projections."
I cannot see any meaty reviews of the paper, nothing more than describing what it is about (eg here). I also note it has alrady been cited 14 times according to Google Scholar.
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Eclectic at 13:18 PM on 7 October 2019Welcome to Skeptical Science
Carol @67 ,
it would be helpful if you gave some indications of your initial thoughts based on your own general knowledge of modelling. And on what practical benefits might be expected from an examination of Eyring's ideas. [ Like you, I have only read the paper's Abstract and some minimal commentary. ]
Pragmatically, climate models seek to assess climate sensitivity (transient and equilibrium). As you will find elsewhere in SkepticalScience articles, the paleo climate evidence points to an ECS of around 3 degrees for CO2 doubling. And the modern historical evidence (planetary surface temperatures during the past 150 years) shows a rise of nearly 1K for a CO2 rise of "halfway to doubling" ~ which indicates a Transient CS of nearly 2K . . . and presumably an ECS close to 3K , as well.
As Greta Thunberg might say :- We should be putting on our running shoes in dealing with the global warming, regardless of whether the latest cimate models come up with an ECS of 2.5 or 5 degrees. ( The latter figure does seem surprisingly high, and may as critics suggest, derive from inaccurate cloud factors. )
2.5 degrees is quite bad enough !
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carol.l.dona at 12:05 PM on 7 October 2019Welcome to Skeptical Science
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
I believe I am following your comments policy - please let me know if otherwise.
My comment is a question. Have you performed a review of the following: the 'Perspective' paper in Nature Climate Change, 'Taking climate model evaluation to the next level', by Veronika Eyring and others? I have performed a fair amount of modelling but not in climate change. I generally understand her point (taken from the abstract - the article was only available for purchase on-line) of weighting heavier the model results that best match the data as opposed to the results from models that are poorer matches to the data. However, I have not seen a review of her paper and technique. Also I have not seen any application of her proposed technique to the combining of modelling results from groups of climate change models. I would appreciate your opinion and review and reference to any other reviews that have been made of her paper. Thank you.
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nigelj at 08:02 AM on 7 October 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40
The five: Donald Trump’s attacks on science.
The US president is a climate-crisis denier, but it is not the only field in which he is at odds with scientists and their work
Last week, a report by US campaign group the National Task Force on Rule of Law and Democracy, compiled by ex-government officials, concluded that under the Trump administration that there were now “almost weekly violations” to the impartiality of scientific research.
Conservation cut
In April the Trump administration withdrew funding for the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, a large and successful conservation programme that tackled issues such as the climate crisis, species extinction and energy security. Sixteen of the original 22 research centres have now been dissolved or are on an indefinite “hiatus”. This was in defiance of instructions from Congress, which had approved $12.5m of federal funding for the cooperatives.
Weather blackout
Donald Trump’s government has refused to publicise dozens of studies from the US Department of Agriculture that examine the impact of the climate crisis. Agriculture secretary, Sonny Perdue, has previously expressed scepticism about climate change, believing it to simply be due to “weather patterns”.
Climate censorship
In June, it was reported that the White House had tried to stop Dr Rod Schoonover, a senior intelligence analyst, from discussing climate change when delivering congressional testimony. The reason given was that the science was not aligned with the views of the Trump administration.
Short-term approach
James Reilly, the director of the US Geological Survey (USGS), has ordered that scientific assessments produced by USGS use climate models that only track the possible impact of climate change until 2040, rather than until the end of the century, as they had done previously. The second half of the century is likely to see the most dramatic impacts of global heating.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:50 PM on 6 October 2019CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician
dueskept... If I understand correctly, it's less about evidence than it is about physics. The Sun converts hydrogen to helium and as it does this, at very predictable rate, solar output increases.
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Philippe Chantreau at 11:06 AM on 6 October 2019CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician
dueskept,
The 4% lower bit in the OP has an active link to Feulner (2012) in Review of Geophysics, 50 (2). Ther article contains multiple other references, that are themselves links.
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dueskept at 08:24 AM on 6 October 2019CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician
The article says "During the Ordovician, solar output was 4% lower than current levels".
How strong is the evidence that solar output was lower during the Ordovician? Can you please point out to the evidence? Thank you in advance.
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nigelj at 06:11 AM on 6 October 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40
The internet is full of climate denialism that creates the impression of an equally divided opinion on the climate issue, but polling shows most people do accept humans are altering the climate. Therefore its very likely a small number of paid lobbyists dominate the internet, and can have a disproportionate impact on perceptions. I hope politicians and other decision makers appreciate this.
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nigelj at 05:53 AM on 6 October 2019Landmark United in Science report informs Climate Action Summit
From The Financial Times: "The limits of the pursuit of profit"
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:15 AM on 6 October 2019Landmark United in Science report informs Climate Action Summit
This comprehensive and robust report improves awareness and understanding. And improving awareness and understanding should reduce anxiety and fear.
But the way people have been winning competitions for status based on perceptions of popularity and profitability has unsustainably developed incorrect and harmful beliefs and actions. The result is that this increased awareness and understanding actually increases anxiety and fear.
This long comment is presented to establish context for a critical response to suggestions that the pursuit of profit can and will be “The solution” to the climate impact problem.
For a long time, like many others, I have pursued increased awareness and understanding of what is required for humanity to develop a sustainable and sustainably improving future. I have learned that sustainable development requires anxiety and fear to be reduced. And improved awareness and understanding is the only way to sustainably reduce anxiety and fear.
However, because of the incorrect direction of development, particularly during the past 30 years, this report increases anxiety and fear. It increases justified anxiety and fear by showing how much worse the current situation is than it needed to be, with the related understanding that the required corrections are still being successfully harmfully resisted (justified fear expressed by the likes of Greta Thunberg).
A more important understanding is that the improving awareness and understanding increases anxiety and fear in people who have developed beliefs that are not supported by the improving awareness and understanding, particularly if those unsustainable beliefs are used to defend developed interests to personally benefit from unsustainable and harmful activities. That increased fear is regarding how much the required correction will cost people who have overdeveloped their beliefs and actions in an incorrect and unsustainable direction.
That understanding leads to an awareness and understanding that many, but not all, influential “winners and wanna-be-winners” unethically make-up and promote misleading stories. They do it to get as many people as possible to continue to be supporters of resisting the corrections of understanding that are required for humanity to develop a sustainable and sustainably improving future. They do it out of fear of personal loss.
That fearful resistance has developed in a variety of socioeconomic-political systems and related to many matters, not just climate impacts. But it has powerfully developed in democratic consumerism based systems, most notably in systems that have not developed effective governance ruled by the pursuit of “Development of Sustainable Improvements, Helpfulness to Others”.
Marketing science has improved the understanding of how people think and behave in response to marketing. Regrettably, driven by pursuits of winning in politics and consumerism, it has developed the understanding that misleading people into being anxious and fearful can be beneficial when it is done 'to help people resist the corrections that would be required by improved awareness and understanding'.
It is obvious that through the past 30 years "the profit motive" has failed to be helpful to the future of humanity, particularly because of the freedom to develop and deliver misleading marketing without a significant personal consequence. Through the past 30 years many of those among the population who are wealthier - the people that the likes of Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill believed would end up governing helpfully because of their higher level of awareness and understanding - have acted harmfully contrary to improving awareness and understanding and its application to develop sustainable improvements for humanity.
The "pursuit of profit" is not the problem. The lack of Caring Helpful governance in pursuit of, and improvement of, the Sustainable Development Goals is the problem. The problem is the way that pursuit of popularity and profit can over-power the governance of any system, especially a system that encourages more freedom for people to "believe and do as they please".
SkS, and many other initiatives, have been developed to try to help improve awareness and understanding. SkS is focused on the Climate Action goal. But all of the SDGs face similar unwarranted resistance to being achieved and improved on.
Only time will tell how bad things will become before anxiety and fear is sustainably reduced to the point where undeserving promoters of unjustified anxiety and fear will fail to significantly influence what is going on.
Hopefully the future of humanity will not suffer too much harm from the 'pursuits of popularity and profit' before current day leadership dedicates its efforts to improving awareness and understanding in pursuit of sustainable improvements for the benefit of the future of humanity (learning from people who are dedicated pursuers of improved awareness and understanding and leading on that basis rather than unethically prolonging unsustainable popularity or profitability).
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MA Rodger at 21:21 PM on 5 October 2019It's not us
richieb1234 @110,
The reflectiveness of cloud is the method by which SO2 provides climate forcing, this by providing aerosols to make the forming clouds shinier. But there is much complication. SO2 is not the only aerosol agent and such mechanisms are short-lived and local. Thus, say, SO2 emissions causing shiny clouds at high latitudes, especially during winter with long nights, will not have as much sunlight to reflect. And the longevity/altitude of the aerosol will differ by location.
The resulting cooling will be less localised.
And globally there is an unresolved issue here. The reductions in SO2 emissions which will follow from eliminating FF use and the resulting loss of its negative climate forcing has got some to worry that there will be a boost to AGW as we de-carbon our economies. Some work is saying this is not really much of a concern (eg Shindell & Smith 2019 [Abstract]) while on the other side of the debate we find Cowern (2018) who argues that such a boost is already happening and the strong warming in recent years is due to the reducing SO2 emissions.
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nigelj at 06:29 AM on 5 October 2019Landmark United in Science report informs Climate Action Summit
Fermin Francisco @1
The profit motive is indeed a useful tool. We see this because wind power is now so economically attractive it makes a profit - assuming you are replacing old worn out coal fired plant for example.
However there is no real profit in replacing more recently built coal fired plant with renewables, and planting forests, carbon capture and storage etc, unless the government subsidises these things, or alternatively a carbon tax penalises continued use of fossil fuels. Remember those forests need to remain unused for decades, they cannot be sold for profit as such.
So the climate problem is a political problem, where your lobbying efforts are probably better directed mainly at governments.
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BaerbelW at 04:18 AM on 5 October 2019Climate denier scientists think these 5 arguments will persuade EU and UN leaders
Alex Maycock tweeted about the background of the „ambassadors“ for the letter. Here is the link to list of tweets via the thread reader app:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1180130582061125633.html
Climate Feedback also reviewed the letter and gave it an overall rating of very low:
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richieb1234 at 22:03 PM on 4 October 2019It's not us
MA Rodger
Thanks for the response. I will look into the IPCC and NASA references.
"The graphic on this webpage suggests 30% reduction 1980-2010 and other data suggests reductions do continue but less strongly."
Yes. If anything, particulate concentrations may rise for the rest of the century. The graphic shows a very small contribution from Africa. U.N. Population projections for Africa show 4 billion people by the end of this century, comparable to Asia. That could ramp up worldwide average particulate concentrations and spread them more equally across the globe. Qualitatively, the competition between GHG warming and particulate cooling could be the biggest uncertainty in the future.
"One reason that this may be so is that aerosols are very short lived and thus their effects dependent on the region of their emissions"
I see your point, but wouldn't the total amount of solar reflection be the most important variable, no matter where it occurs? Wouldn't the resulting cooling eventually even out across the globe? I will take your suggestion and look at the IPCC reference. --Richieb
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Fermin Francisco at 18:28 PM on 4 October 2019Landmark United in Science report informs Climate Action Summit
Urgent world-scale action has long been needed to address climate change, and the most effective tool to use is the profit motive. Here's the vision: 1st World green citizens in their millions persuade their contact companies to partner with 3rd World co-ops and companies starting with the Philippines as modeling country to set up high-profit green industries. Projects: Ethanol distilleries fed by sweet sorghum farms. Thousand-hectare agroforests with processing factories for export production. Geothermal plants. Mini-dam hydropower nets. Methane digesters and E85 engines for on-site power generation. E85 & electric transports. Low-cost solar cells. Forest resorts. All-electric metals industries. Agroforest water supply, toll roads, etc. Current billion-dollar Green Funds should finance the projects at 75% levels due to sure repayment plus interest income incident to the projects' high profitability. Spread out tropics wide, the projects should sequester atmospheric CO2 at billion-ton levels each year for all time, while employing millions of poor and creating huge markets for all involved companies. Details: https://fermin4greenearth.blogspot.com.
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MA Rodger at 06:50 AM on 4 October 2019It's not us
richieb1234 @106,
It is correct that there has been a substantial reduction on SO2 emissions over recent decades. The graphic on this webpage suggests 30% reduction 1980-2010 and other data suggests reductions do continue but less strongly. Yet when the aerosol forcing is shown (eg IPCC AR5 AII Table 1.2), we see a peak in 2000 and a very minor decline.
One reason that this may be so is that aerosols are very short lived and thus their effects dependent on the region of their emissions. NASA data (since 2005) allows the latitude of emissions to be easily quantified. Since 2005 thre have been small reductions in higher northern latitudes (eg USA & Europe), quite large reductions in lower northern latitudes (eg China) while emissions in the tropics and the southern latitudes have remained roughly constant. I would suggest that there is little relationship between global totals for SO2 emissions and the global size of the resulting climate forcing. The location of the emissions has a big effect on the overall forcing levels.
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nigelj at 08:47 AM on 3 October 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #39
The death of science in America: The silenced: Meet the climate whistleblowers muzzled by Donald Trump
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scaddenp at 06:55 AM on 3 October 2019It's not us
richieb124 - the IPCC reports each have a chapter on attribution which is what the literature calls it. I agree that your analogy is a good one but doing real-world attribution is a very complex task. The "fingerprints" in this post I think is about as good as it gets without using a physics-based model. Each individual one is ambiguous, but the sum is telling.
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richieb1234 at 22:07 PM on 2 October 2019It's not us
:As I mentioned earlier, I am a trainer. As I read and reread the original post, I think a good analogy to use is the way in which police organizations identify the source of an illicit drug. A drug that's intercepted on the street could come from anywhere: Colombia, Bangladesh, a rooftop in New York. "You just can't tell for sure." But international law enforcement agencies have developed the forensic methods to identify the source by examining its physical and chemical signatures. It works for natural and synthetic drugs. One can even identify where drugs have been "cut" by the signatures of the chemicals used. The same approach is used to distinguish natural causes of warming from man-made causes. I think this is a good analogy that most adults can identify with. Once they understand the approach, their minds will be much more open to hearing about the 10 signatures of anthropogenic warming.
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richieb1234 at 21:26 PM on 2 October 2019It's not us
David Kirtley: I did get into the Bloomberg link using Google. Very intereting. But I was surprised that it shows a negative trend on temperature effect of aerosols all the way to 2005. The information I have shows worldwide aerosol concentrations dropping by about 30% between 1980 and 2010. Shouldn't that have caused somewhat of a reversal in the temperature contribution?
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