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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 97451 to 97500:

  1. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    #9: "Many climate models are presnted to the public as fact" On the contrary, I find the language of climate models overly timid. See the thread 'IPCC is alarmist' for examples of consistent use of conditional language. "When climate change is presented to the public as predictions instead of facts, then there may be less and less arguments" Wishful thinking at best. The primary tactic of the 'argument' community is to create doubt via making noise. See Oreskes' book for an exceptionally well-documented history of this.
  2. The 2010 Climate B.S.* of the Year Award
    dehogza writes : "Lindzen testified to Congress that it's not really warming, and that supposed warming is due to modern thermometers that magically records transient warmth more efficiently than older mercury-based thermometers, while at the same time not being more sensitive to transient colder events." Would you care to speculate the conditions surrounding those "transient cold events" that might tend to effect the daily minimum for me?
  3. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    LandyJim wrote : "Many climate models are presnted to the public as fact, in 50 years the planet WILL be 7°C warmer, the ice-caps WILL have melted and the ocean WILL be 7m deeper.. This is BAD science, or at least the reporting of it." Sounds more like BAD reporting to me, or do you have actual examples ? LandyJim also wrote : "When climate change is presented to the public as predictions instead of facts, then there may be less and less arguments raised against it." The former is currently the way climate change is reported by the people involved in studying it - just have a look at the last IPCC report. The latter will never be possible with a certain section of society, because they don't want to accept the facts. Unfortunately, enough of them have enough influence to impede progress : that is the real problem.
  4. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    Dikran, maybe weather is somewhat chaotic, but the causes of it aren't. Same goes for climate. Excluding unpredictable events such as something big hitting the Earth, the main inputs that cause weather are well known, or known well enough. Those inputs cause well known behaviours globally. There are actually more knowns than there are unknowns (beginning to sound like Rumsfeld!). But the ultimate outcomes may be less predictable. In some respects it is the scale that is a problem. Most people probably don't realise that the machines and equipment they use, only work reliably because someone has worked out the statistical probability of it failing and using components that minimise the probability of the product failing. All they see is a product that works for x years. They don't think that reliability is 'engineered' and they just get the engineered result. They then expect the same to be done with a system that is not engineered and have expectations that go beyond what is practical. I think half the issue is the huge expectations people have today.
  5. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    RE: 19 LandyJim To me this method makes perfect sense, based entirely on how feedbacks are defined and by looking at the heat flow in the system. If you go to my notes (linked to twice in the article), I give the relevant equations. If you don't follow the importance of this then introductory climate science textbooks tend to include it and it makes a lot more sense. If you can find flaws in this, then you have the makings of a wonderful, groundbreaking paper. :) We have a world where there are different feedbacks. We are interested in temperature's effect on them, and then their effect on radiation which can be converted to an effect on temperature. By considering the feedback parameter dF/da.da/dT you get the parameter a's effect on F given a change in T. This, from mathematical definitions allows you to determine the ultimate climate sensitivity assuming the feedback remains close to its measured value. By measuring it in observations, what you are doing is measuring feedback a1 as a1(F,T,a2,...,aN) i.e. it is a function of the (N-1) other feedbacks. But by taking observations, you are measuring it at specific values of a2,...,aN so their cross effects are included. You then measure the other feedbacks, e.g. clouds might be a2(F,T,a1,a3,...,aN) and that fully includes the coupled effects to the other feedbacks as well. So in each individual measurement, you don't need to calculate the other ones, you just need to independently measure them all. This is why Flanner's results are useful even though they don't discuss clouds in much detail. It's not scaremongering, it's just what the real world has done, which has been measured and reported on by a group of scientists who have a very useful theoretical tool that allows them to put it as a single value that is easy to compare and handle and very physically relevant.
  6. Dikran Marsupial at 22:58 PM on 24 January 2011
    Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    A thought experiment based on a double pendulum is the best way of explaining this canard that I have been able to come up with. Weather is chaotic, and inherently unpredictable (beyond a short prediction horizon) but that doesn't mean the long term statistical properties of the weather (a.k.a. climate) are chaotic or unpredictable. Likewise the the exact path followed by a double pendulum can't be predicted beyond a short prediction horizon, but you can make predictions about its statistical behaviour if you for example you stuck a large magnet to one side (follow the link for pretty picture and discussion of simulation based prediction).
  7. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    I agree there is a clear lack of understanding in the public domain of the difference between weather forecasting and climate predictions. Governments are actually to blame for this, but so is the science community because of statements that are made. Many climate models are presnted to the public as fact, in 50 years the planet WILL be 7°C warmer, the ice-caps WILL have melted and the ocean WILL be 7m deeper.. This is BAD science, or at least the reporting of it. It should be worded so that people understand this is a prediction of what MIGHT happen if things stay as they are. The problem is we cannot predict what will happen this time tomorrow, let alone in 50 years. A major series of volcanic events can alter the weather very rapidly, many of the events predicted may have effects that have not been foreseen or may not be as severe as people and models estimate. The truth is we understand the climate and the weather very poorly, Yes reasonable predictions can be made over a few days to a week, but this is based as much on experience as calculations. The atmosphere of our planet is highly complicated, the interactions it undergoes within it and with external influences is immense, and we have only scratched the surface in our understanding. Models may be getting better, the information we put in is of a higher quality, but there is still those unknowns, the uncertainties and the unknowable. When climate change is presented to the public as predictions instead of facts, then there may be less and less arguments raised against it.
  8. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    @Geln Tamblyn #11 That criticism seems to me to be based on a rather simplistic view of how science works Jim. Much of science is based on researchers looking at small parts of a puzzle. This spurs others to investigate other parts. And what a research team looks at depends on their backgrounds, resources, budegt etc. To criticise some work because it didn't try to look at all aspects seems unfair. Others will do that over time. This paper is showing one result. Others will no doubt look into other aspects subsequent to this. Patience Jim Glen, I understand how science works very well and in general for how science operates in the modern world your comments are correct, but there is also a responsibility to researchers to ensure that their papers are as complete at possible. MarkR has highlighted the minuscule cloud data in the article, but it does not stack up as it is incomplete, perhaps in haste I worded my original post in a misleading way...(Just going to hospital with 9 month old son..). For the record, I am not devoid of a science background. I am an Electrical Engineer and I hold an Honours Degree in Astronomy, currently, as I said in a post in the Hurricane thread, I am working on Hurricane data to ascertain what if any changes have occurred there and as an aside I am researching rainfall records from all nations who have rivers feeding the Atlantic and all inter-related data on this, including sea state locally, temperature, salinity etc. As I have said, I do not accept many of the Pro AGW arguments, but that does not mean I will simply sit on my hands..it will simply take me time to compile all the data I need to come to an independent conclusion about a few aspects of this that simply do not sit straight with me as they do not make sense.
  9. Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    If this keeps up there won't be any ice in a few years never mind a few decades... http://climateprogress.org/2011/01/23/canada-mildness-high-presure-record-ostro-global-warming/ "The largest anomalies here exceed 21°C (37.8°F) above average, which are very large values to be sustained for an entire month." Abrupt climate change perhaps? Here comes the boxer, that we trained so well!
  10. Hockey stick is broken
    I would like to call your attention to the most recent temperature reconstruction, which was published in Science this month. The paper entitled "2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility" by Büntgen et al. actually suggests that the current warming has no parallel in the last 2500 years. ABSTRACT Climate variations have influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence. Here, we present tree ring–based reconstructions of Central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~AD 250 to 600 coincided with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Historical circumstances may challenge recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.
  11. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    #9 LandyJim: the paper specifically considers clouds. e.g. at the top of the right hand column of text on the second page. It is an observational set so implicitly it includes non T & non F interactions with cloud, vapour etc which is very useful if you go to the calculations attachment and follow what's going on there. You see that feedbacks can be decomposed into independent, measurable values and the feedback equation fully includes their interaction with each other. The method used by Flanner makes no assumptions about ice->water, I have no idea where you got that idea from! To determine the feedback parameter for albedo changes you don't need to know much about clouds. But to determine the total global warming you need to know all the individual feedback parameters quite well. Other papers have looked at other feedbacks (e.g. Dessler '08/'10; Chung '09; Lauer '10 spring to mind).
  12. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    #6: krab, I tried to be clear by stating that it was their contributions to the Northern Hemisphere. They concentrated on the NH to do a like-for-like comparison between models and the data they had. To convert to global is easily done assuming models=truth for the southern hemisphere, but doesn't tell you the scale of the mismatch between observations vs models.
  13. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    This sort of conversation is the type one would have with another bus user whilst waiting for a bus. Those that insist on driving and never use public transport, probably avoid this type of reality and only encounter it in the comments of a newspaper web site. There isn't a lot that can change the intellectual abilities of the people you talk to, what is done, is done! But what you can do is spend some time explaining the issue in terms that they might understand. There is no guarantee that even if the person you were talking to was better educated, that they would be more inclined to agree with you. See this report: http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/44825
  14. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    small suggestion, the sentence: "However, slight errors in initial conditions make a forecast beyond two weeks nearly impossible." might be: "However, slight errors in initial conditions make a weather forecast beyond two weeks nearly impossible." very pedantic, I know. But then the use of cherry-picking and selective quotation by some, calls for that.
  15. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice calculations
    These calculations are by definition for the equilibrium climate sensitivity. That's why I said at the bottom 'if the current pattern holds...' So if this relationship between temperature-albedo and albedo-flux holds, then you would expect a boost of 20% to climate sensitivity if your original estimate was 3 C and all other feedbacks retain their properties linearly. This sounds a bit weird, but I'm thinking of doing a post at some point to try and make it clearer. In effect the feedbacks 'reinforce each other' - the extra energy trapped by your change in albedo is 'recycled' multiple times by the enhanced greenhouse effect etc.
  16. Oceans are cooling
    52 nealjking From all that is it possible to put absolute values on abyssal warming to forcings of different magnitudes over different time periods? The reason I ask is there seems to be some subjective descriptions of different time periods as being long and short. was used to suggest forcing over only 1-2 decades have had significant impacts on abyssal warming. While the discussion around this image. suggests volcanic forcings (4-5 years) fall into the category of forcings that only have a temporary effect on OHC at the top level, similar to season variation. There seems to be some convinient placing of different forcing into particular categories in order to make wider points about what is going on here. I'm interested to know if the conclusions about all these different forcings can be resolved by a consistent description of heat transfer in the oceans?
  17. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    Pete Dunkelberg, thanks (sort of :) ) for picking up my slip. The comments regarding sensitivity were in responce to Bodo @5.
  18. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    Failing to understand the difference between short term and long term averages and their predictability is a common failure among the 'innumerate'. Innumeracy is as big a problem as illiteracy -- if not more so, since people instinctively recognize the latter as bad but tolerate the former all too easily.
  19. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    You want accurate. I'll give you accurate Followed this one from Hot Topic (I think). I'm keeping it foreverandever.
  20. Pete Dunkelberg at 18:15 PM on 24 January 2011
    A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice calculations
    I agree with Steve Bloom: something is not right here. I think you may have mixed transient response with equilibrium sensitivity. This is quite a worthwhile discussion all the same.
  21. Pete Dunkelberg at 17:56 PM on 24 January 2011
    A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    Tom Curtis, you arrive at a good conclusion despite a slight typo: "The paper finds a much greater albedo rise (sic)...." but I don't think sensitivity belongs in this discussion (but I don't have the paper). Perhaps a slight slip in the OP set you off. I think this is another indication that the "slow" feedbacks are not cooperating by being slow. They are are not influenced by what we call them.
  22. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    I want some of what he was smoking...
  23. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    I guess climatologists have been perceived as...
  24. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    I don't know, there have been some pretty impressive predictions made by climate modelling over the years, like the one in this Skeptical Science post. They tend to be longer-range forecasts, so a lot of the predictions made in the past decade or so wont be realised for some time to come. Of course, you could always take the approach that, so far, climate science has tended to underestimate the rate and impacts of global warming...
  25. Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
    I haven't yet come across a technically educated skeptic that uses this argument. However, I have heard it from non technical people. Actually, I'm generally surprised at how accurate weather predictions are. I wish the climate models could match this accuracy.
  26. Seawater Equilibria
    #31 you asked what effect organic carbon has. Fair enough question. Here is my rough answer at the question Dr Franzen has avoided for reasons of space I assume. The answer is complicated. Multiple cycles are at work in the ocean. For the AGW deniers who want to excuse increases in CO2, looking at the organic carbon in ocean life does not help them. The slow addition of calcium bicarbonate (from calcium silicate minerals) and other minerals by weathering (historically the major process) involved in the drawdown of CO2 into ocean sediments have been vastly exceeded by the fossil fuel CO2. Looking at the Paleo record the CO2 peaks go up quickly and down very slowly. The drawdown of CO2 by life in the oceans had a large historical example. The Azolla Event 49 million years ago, is thought to mark the end of the Hot House Earth and lead to the start of the glacial cycles. It took 800,000 years. Even in optimum conditions like the Azolla Event life is not quick at drawing down CO2. Azolla Event We will need to manage ocean pH sooner or latter due to poor CO2 level control in the atmosphere. Any idea that just adding alkali will fix the oceans needs to be quickly dropped. Aquarium keepers are already doing this on a tiny scale and the below is to help shine a light on what it takes to keep salt water at a healthy pH 8.2 to 8.3 for tropical species. A short answer to your question is the effect of healthy life in the ocean seems to be to add to the alkaline buffer strength. This seems to be because life increases the species that can bind to a H3O+ ion. My reference for this is: marine aquariums The aquarium keepers have a challenge with keeping stable pH in salt water aquariums as the complex cycles that are in the oceans are not present. The buildup of fish waist quickly turns acid. Attempts to gain good pH control by just adding calcium carbonate or bicarbonate powder just work for a few days as the pK of the buffer shifts to 7.6 and away from the sweet spot of 8.2-8.3 for tropical creatures. The salt aquariums challenge to get stable pH is achieved by adding the complex mixture of buffers that are similar in their levels to the ionic species found in the oceans. commercial aquarium product marine aquariums pH control The shortest answer to the problem of ocean acidity it seems to me is that the oceans ability to absorb CO2 is coming to an end as evidenced by the rise in average pH of the oceans, so quickly limiting the use of coal, oil and gas, till atmospheric CO2 is below 350 ppm is the most direct solution.
  27. Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    Daniel Bailey: "There was a time when I thought I could convince you using the scientific method and peer-reviewed primary sources." GC's been a die-hard denialist from the beginning, and while it's a good idea to give the benefit of the doubt for a few posts, there's no reason to do so over periods of months or years. At some point, the truth's out, and that point's been long passed by GC.
  28. Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    Galloping Gish Camel:
    Those folks (e.g. the IPCC and the NSIDC) who predicted a dramatic decrease in Arctic ice by assuming that the trend that gave us a record low ice coverage in 2007 would continue have been shown to be wrong (color them "Alarmists"). Here is some information on Arctic ice in a region that has some economic importance (at least to the Russians)
    followed by:
    You make the all too common mistake (at least on this blog) of refuting imagined statements. I am convinced that the climate is indeed warming. You won that argument as we happen to be on the same side of the issue.
    You posted your reference in order to support your claim that "Those folks (e.g. the IPCC and the NSIDC) who predicted a dramatic decrease in Arctic ice by assuming that the trend that gave us a record low ice coverage in 2007 would continue have been shown to be wrong" An anecdotal cherry-pick which, as it turns out, doesn't support your claim. Quit whining.
  29. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    #9 LandyJim "around 90% of the south is a frozen continent" Yes but Antarctica is covered mostly with ice as opposed to the northern hemisphere where you get substantially more dark surface area (both land and water) to absorb incoming radiation.
  30. CO2 effect is saturated
    Re: Colin Bridge (74) Hey, welcome to Skeptical Science! Thanks for posting your first question on an appropriate thread! Your friend's article is incorrect in many respects: 1. Even if the absorption band of carbon dioxide would be fully saturated in the lower parts of atmosphere, it is not saturated in higher atmosphere and the addition of carbon dioxide (CO2) will cause more absorption of thermal radiation (extra CO2 has extra effect for a multitude of reasons). Nice-to-know: CO2 exerts its effects primarily though bending mode (you can see visualizations of the various modes of CO2 here). As shown there, CO2 is infrared (IR) active due to a transient dipole: bending results in charge being asymmetrically distributed with net positive near the carbon atom and negative near the two oxygen atoms. 2. Water vapor is a condensible GHG. Short-term increases in concentrations of it condense out and equalize in about 9 days time. CO2 stays aloft for centuries-to-millennia. Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps on doing its thing. 3. The Earth currently takes in more energy than it emits. We can physically measure this. This emission takes place at the Top Of Atmosphere (TOA), well above where water vapor has anything but a minimal effect (it is found in only trace amounts there). Only the increasing concentrations of CO2, which we can isotopically tell come from fossil-fuel emissions, explain the imbalance. And they explain it quite well. Turning up the CO2 control knob is like cranking up the thermostat to max...and breaking it: The NOTES section at the bottom of this page contain much useful material. Also see here for background on the greenhouse effect and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, which usually comes in the next contrarian article. :) BTW: The introduction of N2 and O2 is a complete red herring, as they are unaffected by infrared. Hope that helps. The Yooper
  31. Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    Re: gallopingcamel (32) You are mistaken, sir, when you attribute that graph by the moderator to me. It lacks my name attached to the Moderator Response box (which I always provide to avoid confusion such as this). But since you have dragged me unwillingly into this:
    "This thread is over reacting to Monckton pointing out that Antarctic ice extent is growing."
    Incorrect. This thread is about Monckton's claims of "The global sea ice record shows virtually no change throughout the past 30 years".
    "On this site there is a fixation on "Warming" evidence while the reaction to contrary evidence is to ignore it or "Attack the Messenger". This approach repels the very people you are trying to convince."
     Skeptical Science relies upon using the peer-reviewed primary literature as well as the scientific method to examine the various claims out there to separate the chaff from the wheat. Claims that are unsupported by the available evidence that fits this criteria do tend to get ignored. As you are well aware, claims that are intended to overturn centuries of evidence accumulated during the lifetimes of thousands of scientists are therefore extraordinary, requiring an even higher level of extraordinary evidence that is supported by primary literature that withstands scrutiny in the peer-review process. None of which you have been able to provide to substantiate past claims you have made. There was a time when I thought I could convince you using the scientific method and peer-reviewed primary sources. That ended when you falsely accused me of dishonesty, an accusation you have never retracted. In your case, I now limit myself to pointing out your errors with links to sources documenting the correct way forward for the sake of posterity and the lay readership, who may read these threads at some unknown future point. I have no expectation or hope whatsoever of you ever becoming a resource here.
    "The graph that Daniel Bailey appended to my #29 was included in that document (Figure 13 on page 30). If you look closely you will find that the sea ice range predicted for the year 2100 dips to zero."
     Again, not my graph. The range you refer to is the width of model runs, the lower bound of which nears zero in 2100. Applying a quadratic fit to actual observations shows sea ice extent approaching zero about 2030. Your remaining comment about snowfall is off-topic here. The Yooper
  32. apiratelooksat50 at 14:26 PM on 24 January 2011
    Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
    Muon @ 176 "I show you peer-reviewed research that 'suggests' changes to el Nino are based on AGW; that 'confirms' that human activity can and does alter global phenomena." How does one go from taking research that "suggests" a hypothesis to "confirming" your opinion?
  33. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    A question and two comments. The paper finds a much greater albedo rise than expected compared to from models for the amount of warming experienced. However, my understanding is that warming in at latitutude 60+ north has been greater than expected. How does the albedo change in those latitudes compare to the models of the basis of temperature? Ie, in the models, if you correlate albedo change at 60+ north to temperature at 60+ north rather than global temperature change, is the relationship as expected or stronger? As to the comment, at least some of the excess warming in northern latitudes has been because of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscilation. Some also has been due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, and some due to the loss of albedo driven by the other two. It is not certain as to the relative strengths of the first two (AMO and GHE), so it is not certain how much this study supports a higher climate sensitivity. If, for example warming effect of the AMO in northern latitudes has been twice that of the enhanced GHE, then the models have got the albedo calculations close to correct, but nature is conspiring against us. If, on the other hand the AMO warming is half that of the enhanced GHE, then the models are significantly underestimating climate sensitivity. Finally, although this result may be very significant for estimated in climate sensitivity in models, it is irrelevant for estimates based on observations. Those, of course already included all the detailed changes in the final output without knowing what they are. So regardless of the implications of this study, we should still be expecting a climate sensitivity of around 3 degrees per doubling of CO2.
  34. The Climate Show #5: Green roofs and Brisbane floods
    Was the last flood in Australia worse than the floods of 1973-74? http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/flood7.htm
  35. Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    #34: Glenn, I think Ignorance is Strength is more SPPI's speed. Caught 'em once claiming that recent Greenland ice melt was due to a volcanic eruption. They hadn't noted that the volcano in question was 2200 years ago.
  36. Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    And to the topic of the thread, which is about Monckton's track record in what he claims, his use of the comparison between Arctic & Antarctic ice is demonstrably false. However the bigger issue is the additional data that James and then others have posted here. Monckton is the 'Chief Policy Advisor' of the Science & Public Policy Institute whose Mission Statement begins: 'The Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) is a nonprofit institute of research and education dedicated to SOUND public policy based on SOUND science...' (my emphasis) More sound science has been presented here by a range of people doing it as willing amateurs, for free, than ever by Monckton who is PAID to do it. Unless of course expressions from Monckton and Co about 'SOUND science' should be interpretted in the Orwellian sense... ... War Is Peace.
  37. Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
    I am not a scientist but lived with a lot of observation in my life. Can someone tell me if many are actually missing the point and getting to technical? From my observation and reading many papers on line, it would seem that CO2 is far from the cause of global warming, Co2 is a result of global warming from what I can glean. So if water vapour is causing the the increase in temperature, then the increase in temperature is the cause of CO2 rises. To explain: It would appear that after a period of warming and even when the mini ice age came through, CO2 continued to rise to a peak before declining. It would appear that greater degeneration of plant life is caused through warming emitting faster quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere, this in turn creates greater growth of natural flora and fauna to again be degenerated and emitting greater flows of CO2. These growths are also as a result of increasing rains, and higher dew points. Research also shows without being specific, that in Roman times CO2 was higher then than now, that the global temperature was 3 degrees Celsius higher then than now and greater vapour was evident in some history books. If this is the case why are we being led to believe otherwise and that the planet is in danger of burning out if we do not get CO2 under control? I would just like to add as an aside , that Australia despite having serious rain problems and flooding this year, our harvest in South Australia has exceeded all expectations and 300,000 tonnes greater output than the highest ever record reached. As CO2 and water are a necessary plant food, could the small rise be sufficient to warrant awarding the increase to these two elements? Maybe we should be applauding the fact that we have this rise to create greater stock piles before it recedes to almost famine growth as it was in the 1950's with most of our water vapour again locked into glaciers and pole caps. Sometimes to much knowledge in one area can be detrimental to a whole picture which has not been formulated yet. Apologies if this has been addressed as I have not had time to read the many posts, yet!
    Moderator Response: Welcome to Skeptical Science! At the left of every page is a list of Most Used Skeptic Arguments. To see all of them, click the link "View All Arguments" at the bottom of that short list. You can also get there by clicking the "Arguments" link in the blue horizontal bar at the top of every page. You'll find the answers to all your questions there. For example, see "Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas," "CO2 lags temperature," "Warming causes CO2 rise," "CO2 is not a pollutant," and "It’s not bad." There are more, but I'm tired of typing. Your best first stop, though, is the Home page, where you should click on the two boxes at the upper right labeled "Newcomers, Start Here" and "The Big Picture." By the way, one of the rules is that you must post comments on appropriate threads. This first comment of yours is too broad for this thread, but that's okay because this is your first time. But in future please find the best thread ("Argument") to post each comment on. And split up your comments into multiple narrow ones, one comment per topic and therefore one comment per thread. Also take advantage of the Search field at the top left of every page.
  38. Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    GJ Too me the telling graph in James' post is the last one, the decline in multi-year ice. Add to this reports from researchers in the field in the last year that even that MY ice is pock-marked with holes that have been re-covered with 1st year ice. This is a picture of the backbone of year to year ice retention - structurally strong, thick MY ice in serious decline. As more of the Arctic Ocean is exposed in summer, winds are likely to be able to generate stronger waves and swells that can break up younger ice. As with land ice, it isn't just pure melt that matters but mechanical forces that cause break up and enhance melting. Interestingly, the MY ice isn't located around the Pole as one might expect. Where ice can survive longer is probably more influenced by weather patterns and ocean currents than absolute latitude So an 'ice free Arctic in Summer' well before 2100 looks highly likely unless current trends reverse rapidly - with one caveat. Rather than 'ice free' perhaps the correct expression should be 'effectively ice free'. There will quite probably be pockets of ice in the Arctic that persist through summer, depending on local weather conditions that year, and some years may be particularly cold and it doesn't clear at all. But in practical terms an effectively ice free summer arctic looks to be 10-20 years away Certainly in terms of the albedo impacts and trans-polar navigation.
  39. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    Answering #9: Jim- How could any professional claim this paper is 'scaremongering'? It does not, as you accuse, assume all the ice turns into water without some also going to vapor. As the article says near the very top, it bases this conclusion on satellite measurements. So that it does NOT have to make any such rash assumption. The results of satellite observation do in fact confirm that not enough of the molten ice turns into clouds to offset positive feedback.
  40. Oceans are cooling
    Should also look at the excellent Science of Doom articles on back radiation and ocean warming
  41. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    LandyJim #9 'Sorry to say this, but actually this paper will come across as scaremongering and incomplete science, they should have accounted for evaporation from the surface and estimated cloud cover to approximate the offset this would provide.' That criticism seems to me to be based on a rather simplistic view of how science works Jim. Much of science is based on researchers looking at small parts of a puzzle. This spurs others to investigate other parts. And what a research team looks at depends on their backgrounds, resources, budegt etc. To criticise some work because it didn't try to look at all aspects seems unfair. Others will do that over time. This paper is showing one result. Others will no doubt look into other aspects subsequent to this. Patience Jim
  42. gallopingcamel at 12:19 PM on 24 January 2011
    Monckton Myth #6: Global Sea Ice
    dhogaza (@31), You make the all too common mistake (at least on this blog) of refuting imagined statements. I am convinced that the climate is indeed warming. You won that argument as we happen to be on the same side of the issue. This thread is over reacting to Monckton pointing out that Antarctic ice extent is growing. On this site there is a fixation on "Warming" evidence while the reaction to contrary evidence is to ignore it or "Attack the Messenger". This approach repels the very people you are trying to convince. Michael Sweet (@30), Good point but I was not referring to AR4. The "Copenhagen Diagnosis" was published in 2009. The graph that Daniel Bailey appended to my #29 was included in that document (Figure 13 on page 30). If you look closely you will find that the sea ice range predicted for the year 2100 dips to zero. Personally, I am as skeptical of that prediction as I was about snowfall becoming a rare phenomenon throughout Europe. However, I applaud the IPCC for being bold enough to make itself clear on the issue.
    Moderator Response: I'm not attacking the messenger. I am attacking the assertion that Arctic sea ice decline is "matched" by Antarctic sea ice increase. As I've shown above, neither extent data, nor area data, nor volume data bear this out. - James
  43. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    #9: "I would suspect the different is not as much as one might think." Great insight there, LandyJ. Did you miss that the paper actually measured this change towards additional warming? And that, by definition, takes into account evaporation? "has anyone done a study of how the unfrozen Ocean will now have surface currents ...I have searched and cannot find one." Seems like the Navy did some work on that over the years. Here's one: Hibler 1979: A Dynamic Thermodynamic Sea Ice Model In summer a low compactness region of up to 50% open water builds up off the Alaskan and Siberian coasts, in general agreement with satellite-derived ice concentration charts... So we can go with your totally unconnected, totally unscientific 'maybe unfrozen Ocean will now have surface currents' that will miraculously provide some unknown impact. Or we can go with those who are measuring what's actually going on. To quote that noted climatologist H. Callahan, "you gotta ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky?"
  44. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    @Ron Crouch, yes there is a lot of frozen land in the North, but the majority of the Polar region is a frozen ocean and that around 90% of the south is a frozen continent. I don't know the exact numbers off the top of my head, but I would suspect the different is not as much as one might think. In respect of the article...Air warms, Ice melts, some goes into the sky to make cloud..Oh hand on, I didn't read mention of that in the quoted paper..I get the impression they are assuming a total melt to liquid that defies the laws of thermodynamics and never evaporates. Sorry to say this, but actually this paper will come across as scaremongering and incomplete science, they should have accounted for evaporation from the surface and estimated cloud cover to approximate the offset this would provide. Also, has anyone done a study of how the unfrozen Ocean will now have surface currents that will flow different from today and thus have an impact...I have searched and cannot find one. The cold water in these currents may have a negative impact on the heat absorption, or it may have a positive impact too and exacerbate the problem. Yet more unconnected so called science of the modern era in my professional opinion.
  45. CO2 effect is saturated
    In an argument about this article a friend sent me this. Can someone help me with a layman's language rebuttal? **************************************************** "Water, a 3-atom dipolar molecule has several ways of rotating and several ways of vibrating, so it interacts with and absorbs electromagnetic radiation in many parts of the spectrum. It is a strong "greenhouse gas". Carbon dioxide is linear and symmetrical, so it has no resultant dipole and it therefore cannot absorb in the rotational frequency region. Its symmetrical stretching vibration is also infrared inactive. Its asymmetrical stretching vibration however produces a constantly reversing dipole, so it absorbs in a narrow band of frequencies around 2350 wavenumbers. Likewise the bending vibrations, around 670 wavenumbers. So in most of the infrared and microwave spectrum the molecule behaves just like N2 and O2. It doesn't absorb at all. It does absorb in two narrow frequency bands, and absorbs so strongly there that the present concentration of CO2 (about 340 parts per million by volume) achieves almost complete absorption. Increasing the concentration can cause only a little more absorption. The high extinction coefficients are known, the concentration is known, the calculation is not difficult abstruse or speculative, and I think you will agree that it is relevant to anyone who wants to write informatively about the greenhouse effect." ****************************************************
  46. OK global warming, this time it's personal!
    John, In case you like seeing your personal natural disaster from above, here's an ISS photo. Full scale available here.
  47. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    New paper from CCNY 'cryocity' group, confirming that reduced snow/ice cover leads to decreased albedo, this time over Greenland: Tedesco et al 2010 Preprint -- Publication version Early melt onset, triggered by large positive near-surface temperature anomalies during May 2010 (up to +4ºC above the mean) contributed to accelerated snowpack metamorphism and premature bare ice exposure, with the consequence of rapidly reducing the surface albedo. Reduced accumulation in 2010, and the positive albedo feedback mechanism are likely responsible for the premature exposure of bare ice. See also the comment here for link to cryocity website.
  48. Greenland is gaining ice
    Beautiful website about Greenland ice loss. Remote sensing data, surface observations and models indicate new records in 2010 for surface melt and albedo, runoff, the number of days when bare ice is exposed and surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. This was especially true over over its west and southwest regions. Anyone not see the trend? In simple words, each bar tells us by how many standard deviations melting in a particular year was above the average. For example, a value of ~ 2 for 2010 means that melting was above the average by two times the ‘variability’ of the melting signal along the period of observation.
  49. Zvon.org guide to RealClimate.org
    I just noticed that Realclimate now has a link to Zvon.org prominently in the right hand menu column. They obviously appreciate your efforts.
  50. A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
    They only attempt to calculate the Northern Hemisphere component Krab. A Southern Hemisphere component would also need to be calculated. Obviously because the greatest bulk of land mass exists in the Northern Hemisphere that component will have a stronger signal than it's southern counterpart, so dividing by 2 doesn't provide an accurate picture. It will however allow for further refinements of both global and regional climate models.

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