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Comments 99401 to 99450:

  1. It's the sun
    #768: "shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries ..." Figures 5 and 6 in the paper (pdf here) clearly show the solar UV max coincident with the late '50s 'grand maximum'. That suggests that in the 50 years since, the 4 subsequent solar maxima were flat to lower than this well-known peak. That's the key point in this post: between the 1960s and the present day the same solar measurements have shown that the energy from the sun is now decreasing. See the graph at the top of the page. On another note, when I was in the awl bidness, we referred to Mother Exxon as 'the double cross' - and that was before the Valdez.
  2. Eric (skeptic) at 12:24 PM on 4 January 2011
    Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    Florida had numerous record low average temperatures in December, but no extreme cold. For example, Tampa was about 10 degrees below average at 53.2 breaking the old record of 54.5 (Dec 1935). It was interesting that no daily records were broken during the month (in Tampa). It just reached 32 twice (the all time low for December is 18 in 1962).
  3. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    #144: "Spencer also says ... " "the Northern Hemisphere also cooled in December, more consistent with the anecdotal evidence. :) " That's his cute little smiley face. He'd do better with these faces to back up his anecdotes. Yooper, I'm heading north.
  4. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    Daniel @146, Yes, 2012 is going to be an interesting year. The 2011 Arctic melt season could also be interesting given the current low ice volume and extent. Warning signs everywhere that the break pads are wearing out quickly ;) An yet here we are "debating" those in denial about AGW. Sadly, I suspect others will be doing so circa 2050 and beyond. Thanks for the like to David Benson's model-- so far it is working out pretty well, as are Arrhenius's estimates of global SAT.
  5. Not So Cool Predictions
    jorgepeine... AR4 does not, as far as I am aware, suggest that aerosol/cloud issues would "exactly counteract" the influence of CO2 and other GHG's. In fact, they say that the lower bounds for climate sensitivity is 2C with 3C-4.5C being more likely. The latest paper (Dessler 2010) on cloud effects suggest positive feedback and very unlikely that there is any negative feedback. See here for a recent SkS article related to this.
  6. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    Re: Albatross (144) Good thing Ma Nature's had Her foot on the brake, then (do you smell brake pads wearing out?). 2011 is the year the foot comes off da brake and onto the accelerator in 2012. A good run while we had it. On the plus side, instead of heading south for spring break I can save money & just stay at home... The Yooper
  7. Not So Cool Predictions
    wow this is a super paper ... and I think there is no doubt on the effect of CO2 causing AGW On the other hand IPCC 2007 (AR4) admits some big uncertainties in the aerosol/cloud issue (see the diagramm in chapter 2 of AR4 on radiativ forcing) which could exactly counteract the influence of CO2 and other GHG's ... There seems to be some further research activity underway at CERN with project CLOUD ... Anybody has heard of the outcome of this project??
  8. Exxonwhereareyourmoney? at 10:13 AM on 4 January 2011
    It's the sun
    Well, the sun isn´t dead yet: A combination of the increased TSI and UV may explain up to 0.44 degrees of the 0.55 degree HADCRU warming - 80%. "A peer-reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries.....Use of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W/m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate .44C global temperature increase.....A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50% over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum.....This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels. Solar UV is capable of penetrating the ocean to depths of several meters to cause ocean heating." [N. A. Krivova, L. E. A. Vieira, S. K. Solanki 2010: Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, A12112, 11 PP., 2010 doi:10.1029/2010JA015431
  9. Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
    oops... first sentence was chopped: When proxy readings are validated by multiple, independent proxy methods, they can be viably compared.
  10. Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
    When proxy readings are validated by multiple, independent proxy methods. When a proxy record starts to conflict with the observational records, which should be considered valid - indirect proxy or direct observation? Should the whole proxy record be discarded when its validity starts to decline due to extraneous factors?
  11. Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature
    "The “trick” was a way of presenting the data in this one particular graph, namely to truncate the tree ring data at the point when it diverged" A quite incredible comment. The infamous "hockey stick" graph grafted post 1978 instrumental data (the blade) onto proxy data (teh stick). It failed to display the post 1977 proxy data, which shows a blade pointing in teh opposite direction. Hence the song, "hide the decline".
    Moderator Response: [muoncounter] See the thread Is the hockey stick broken? for a thorough discussion of these graphics.
  12. Not So Cool Predictions
    Whoops I meant to say cooling *winter* temps in Europe and North America, and only when Arctic air is pushed southwards, not during the entire winter. The overall temperatures in these regions will continue to rise, of course.
  13. Not So Cool Predictions
    GeoffThomas #19 - this post and rebuttal is about *global* cooling, as I specifically noted in the sections on Lockwood and Overland. However, either myself or another Skeptical Science author will likely have a post on weather vs. climate in the near future. It's next on my list of priorities unless somebody else gets to it first. Cooling temps in Europe and North America are more likely to come from changes in Arctic air circulation (due to the rapid warming there) than a slowdown of the thermohaline.
  14. Hyperactive Hydrologist at 09:20 AM on 4 January 2011
    Not So Cool Predictions
    Geoff, That is the theory, I've not seen any evidence to back it up though, can you point me in the direction of any articles relating to this? There is evidence to suggest a slowing of the meridional overturning circulation of about 30% but no change to the Gulf Stream, as far as I'm aware.
  15. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    Argus, It is good to see you finally produce some data that we can review. Can you provide links to the data, at least three appear to be newspaper reports (the last two especially), not actual data. (I live in Florida and while it has been below average in December, it has not been record cold). You have found a few sites where it has been cold this winter. I doubt that it will be "An all time record cold spell in Europe" as you claim. A few cold nights in Ireland and Sweden are not a record cold spell in Europe. Germany did not rate a mention in November in the NCDC report and on their dot map of world temperatures Germany is shown as warmer than usual. From the NCDC November report: "The most notable warm anomalies around the world during November 2010 occurred across the northern high latitudes, including Alaska and a large swath of Canada and encompassed most of Europe and Asia. The coolest anomalies were seen over Scandinavia, most of Australia, and the eastern and central Pacific Ocean." It was not "record cold" in most of Europe during November, it was unusually warm. Perhaps Europe will get a mention for its December temperatures. We should wait for the GISS and the NCDC yearly and December summaries to come out. GISS usually comes out around the 10th and NCDC around the 17th of the month. NCDC will mention cold spots around the globe and say how they compare to past records.
  16. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    FWIW, the RSS data for December 2010 have been released. Global anomaly for TLT (lower troposphere) was +0.251 C. The UAH lower-tropospheric global anomaly was +0.18 C. So much for BP's suggestion that global temperatures were below average in December 2010. Spencer also says that 2010 and 1998 are in a statistical tie for warmest year in the UAH record. For comparison, here are the RSS December anomalies going back to 1998. Note, the RSS product doe not extend north of 80N and south of 72.5 S. Annual values are in parentheses. 1998: +0.312 (+0.55) 1999: +0.116 (+0.09) 2000: +0.008 (+0.08) 2001: +0.292 (+0.24) 2002: +0.236 (+0.33) 2003: +0.487 (+0.36) 2004: +0.166 (+0.25) 2005: +0.219 (+0.37) 2006: +0.334 (+0.28) 2007: +0.096 (+0.31) 2008: +0.172 (+0.09) 2009: +0.243 (+0.26) 2010: +0.251 (+0.51) Remarkably, the global RSS anomaly for December 2010 was higher than that for December 2009 despite the moderate/strong La Nina event developing in the early summer of 2010 and despite the PDO being strongly negative since July 2010.
    Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] You may be interested in David B. Benson's decadal temperature prediction over at RC in October then.
  17. Not So Cool Predictions
    NickD... What's great about PopTech is that, when he gets a mention he usually lives up to his name and pops in to argue his points, thus driving more traffic to the site where he's posting. And he's a vociferous commenter.
  18. Not So Cool Predictions
    It might be worth your mentioning that there are predictions the gulf stream "the heat conveyor" will slow down and in fact has slowed down, which will mean that Europe and America will experience winter cooling, - most folk who know anything about climate change know of this so I guess you don't feel it necessary to mention it but the article is not only directed at the already informed. Regards, Geoff Thomas.
  19. A Positive Outlook For Clouds
    “The effect of clouds in a warming world is a difficult one to predict. One challenge is that clouds have both warming and cooling effects. Low-level clouds in particular tend to cause a cooling effect by reflecting sunlight, while high-level clouds tend to cause a warming effect by trapping heat.” Nought out of ten – see me. Heat is not a substance, it is not caloric, it cannot be trapped or stored. Energy can be stored but it is not heat. Whether or not any part of stored energy can do anything – produce work or raise temperature – depends on its surroundings. Heat is the transfer of energy between a higher and a lower temperature. It is, by definition, uni-directional. The way you present thermodynamics in this thread simplifies the first law and ignores the second. It suggests to the non-scientist (journalist, politician or lay reader) that the more energy absorbent material we add to the atmosphere, the higher will be its temperature because the “heat” cannot escape to space. Angstrom demonstrated 100 years ago that this is not the case.
    Moderator Response: [muoncounter] See Second Law of thermodynamics for a thorough discussion of this question. Hopefully, we don't have to reinvent this wheel.
  20. Not So Cool Predictions
    Wheels @17, The short story is that Easterbrook is bad news-- no doubt about it. Gareth Renowden has thoroughly debunked Easterbrook's latest nonsense in his latest post here. It seems that at least one "skeptic" did not resolve to absolve from distorting in 2011. In fact, they are starting right where they left off. Wheels, these antics are all a desperate attempt to keep people distracted from the reality that the the climate system is accumulating heat, and to trying and sow the seed that the planet is in fact not heading for 2-4.5 C warming, but instead "cooling". Easterbrook and the microWatts crowd are clearly in denial about AGW. The psychology of all this is fascinating, if not utterly depressing.
  21. Not So Cool Predictions
    What an inconsistency. If Oreskes is incorrect in describing how the vast, overwhelming majority of climate scientists is a consensus, how can Gosselin turn around a few months later and describe a list of ~30 individuals as any consensus, "growing" or otherwise? Also, Easterbrook! I hadn't paid him much attention before, but late last night somebody used his arguments about modern temps/the Holocene on me and I had reason to look into him. His claims of "cooling" periods over the 20th century remind me of this so much it's almost not funny. Turns out I'm not the only person who thinks his graphs smell funny: One Two Three He seems unusually weaselly. I hadn't really heard about him until last night, so maybe I'm just being unduly influenced by hasty Googling. Anybody have the story on Dr. Easterbrook?
  22. Not So Cool Predictions
    @6 - Tonydunc - although I wouldn't go so far as call Argo floats cherry-picking, some of these scientists that are still in denial (Roger Pielke Snr springs to mind) have to make the most of the Argo data before revisions are made to account for the pressure sensor faults which have induced a cooling bias. The process is still ongoing as far as I'm aware. Roy Spencer & John Christy did the same thing for about a decade with the MSU satellites when it was obvious there was a spurious cooling signal in their datasets. And of course we still have no way of measuring the deep ocean in it's entirety. With many politicians willing to bury their heads in the sand over global warming, funding for a deep ocean monitoring network may be a bit hard to come by.
  23. Eric (skeptic) at 07:24 AM on 4 January 2011
    Not So Cool Predictions
    caerbannog, I agree. The reason I posted the link was not to promote cranks, but to give a list of people, some subset of which may have cooling predictions and some subset of that may be backed up with journal papers.
  24. Not So Cool Predictions
    PeteM, Rob Honeycutt and others, some have looked rather extensively at PopTech's list. http://greenfyre.wordpress.com/2009/11/18/poptarts-450-climate-change-denier-lies/
  25. Not So Cool Predictions
    A lot of the names above (and more) are in this table: http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall/climate/skeptic_authors_table.html Every "skeptic" list that I've ever seen has been padded with cranks and incompetent hacks. The above list is no exception. A couple of quick examples: John Coleman? He's with KUSI here in San Diego, and he's cartoonishly clueless. I've seen him in action on TV several times. His current knowledge of climate-science wouldn't get him a passing grade in a middle-school science class. Timothy Ball? A complete, over the top, tinfoil-hat crank. Strong words, admittedly, but fully supported by the evidence. See this link for some of that evidence: http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/31141 Excerpts
    Scientific Reaction To Velikovsky Symptomatic Of Climate Science Debacle By Dr. Tim Ball Thursday, December 16, 2010 ..... Science Is The Ability To Predict In the end Velikovsky succeeded because he passed the ultimate test of science; the ability to predict. More important, they were in contradiction to prevailing views. He made many and apparently none are incorrect to date. The interesting one was the temperature of Venus, which was almost double what the textbooks said. The same textbooks that incorrectly use Venus as an example of runaway CO2 induced Greenhouse Effect. Failure of the University President to approve a conference on Velikovsky was symptomatic of the dogmatic, closed minds that pervade modern science. The few scientists involved with the AGW debacle deliberately exploited and practiced that condition. Their actions indicate they saw this as a battle, but it was against the truth and as Aeschylus said, “In war, truth is the first casualty.”
  26. Not So Cool Predictions
    I guess I have another footnote (hyperlink) for my "Global Cooling since..." post. :-)
  27. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    @Argus #142 So, do you think that many instances of record cold in 100 years or unprecedented cold are not evidence of global warming or compatible with global warming?
  28. Not So Cool Predictions
    Rob Honeycut (#4) - I saw the list of 800 scientists. When I checked what they were saying, they were proposing several contradictory ideas ( sun , no warming , thermodynamics). I'm surprised there isn't a simple analysis of this list showing that it represents (for example )20 inconsistent ideas.
  29. Eric (skeptic) at 06:37 AM on 4 January 2011
    Not So Cool Predictions
    A lot of the names above (and more) are in this table: http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall/climate/skeptic_authors_table.html Some of the Russians in particular (e.g. Oleg Sorokhtin) have been written up in press releases, etc as having made cooling predictions.
  30. Not So Cool Predictions
    Has anyone attempted to let these scientists know how they are being portrayed on P Gosselin's blog?
  31. Not So Cool Predictions
    Rob #4 - yes it seems pretty much every skeptic 'list of scientists' follows this same pattern. Pad the list with non-experts, and find a few experts whose quotes you can misconstrue to incorrectly add them to your list, to give it the perception of validity. Albatross #5 - personally I don't think you're left with any, but I took that statement out of the post, because it's rather subjective who you consider a real 'climate scientist'. Scafetta for example - personally I think he does rather shoddy work, and technically he's a solar physicist, but you could make an argument for calling him a climate scientist, because he has published in peer-reviewed journals on solar effects on the climate. tonydunc #6 - I think the abstract of the paper tells you all you need to know - "Using only 2003–2008 data from Argo floats..." So basically they're looking at only *upper* ocean heat content data, only over a 5 year period, and only from Argo floats. Cherrypicking at its finest.
  32. Not So Cool Predictions
    Tony @6, A big clue here is the author "Douglass". I would not place too much weight on the paper. IMHO, a far more objective and credible paper on the state of the OHC is a paper by Lyman et al. (2010), which is discussed here. There is also a good overview here, in the 2009 State of the Climate report. Here is a link to the relevant chapter.
  33. It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
    #53. The International Journal of Geosciences is perhaps not quite what it seems Mind you I'm looking forward to the first articles from this prestigious sounding tome
  34. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    michael sweet, #128: "The data at 51 show normal winter temperatures: it is December. " The graph at 51 shows anomalies. Blue means considerably lower than normal. What you asked for in #82 was "data on a location that is colder than average." michael sweet, #128: "You have not provided a single location where this winter has set any record at all" Here are a few assorted records for you: - Stockholm, Sweden, longest continuous cold spell since the winter of 1788-1789. Also coldest November temp. since 1884 (-18) - Åland (autonomous part of Finland): all-time low (set on Nov 29) -18,9. - Germany record cold in November: 3-5 degrees Celsius below the long-term averages. - "Both Wales and Northern Ireland recorded the coldest November night since records began. In Wales, temperatures fell to -18.0 °C at Llysdinam, near Llandrindod Wells, Powys. Northern Ireland recorded -9.5 °C at Loch Fea." - December 20, all-time low in Northern Ireland (-18°C). - "Christmas Day is the coldest ever with mercury plummeting to - 18 as UK heads towards the biggest December freeze since 1890." / "December is the coldest across the UK since the national series began in 1910." (Pick one!) - The coldest December on record for the main climate sites in South Florida. (According to 'The National Weather Service'). P.S. This is not cherry-picking - I was asked to provide data!
  35. Not So Cool Predictions
    I just got this paper off Steve Goddard's site. http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/KD_InPress_final.pdf While many of his postings are totally meaningless or worse, this seems to clearly say that there is no heat buildup in the oceans, for the last 8-10 years of so. Of course that is not a very long time period, but it makes sense to me that there there would be amore consistent rise in temps in the oceans than on land. Maybe John someone here can comment of the accuracy/meaning of these results
  36. Not So Cool Predictions
    Many, many thanks for looking into this Dana. As I suspected the contrarians misrepresented the science of several climate scientists to fit their own ideology, and you have very nicely shown that they have. "Many of these and other names on the list are not climate scientists" Heck, several of them they are not even scientists, and others are emeritus (and those in the know are aware what often tends to happen when a prof. goes emeritus). Is D'Aleo a real, practicing scientist? Or Corbyn, or Bastardi for that matter? I would argue that the the aforementioned are not scientists. Have any of them published their claims in a in a reputable peer-reviewed journal? When one excludes the wanna be scientists, the non-climate scientists and the emeriti-- just who is one left with?
  37. Not So Cool Predictions
    Dana... This sounds like the same technique that that guy PopTech (Mr. 800-peer-reviewed-papers-against-AGW) uses to justify his position. It doesn't matter to them if the authors of the quoted material actually agree with their position, the only thing that matters is their own interpretation of those author's works.
  38. The 2010 Climate B.S.* of the Year Award
    TTT @78, I am not arguing with you on this anymore. Two reasons. First, it is OT. Second, you seem to be insisting on misunderstanding Martinson's research. But before I go, here is his abstract given at AGU: "Published literature is converging to a consensus that the accelerated glacial melt in western Antarctica is due in part to ocean heat. This talk will present the history of ocean heat on the western continental shelves of the western Antarctic, likely contributing to this accelerated melt. The record is from nearly 20 years of gridded ocean data from the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) project situated in the heart of this critical region. Two fundamental points are covered: (1) what is the mechanism by which the warm water makes its way onto the continental shelf, and (2) what is the history of the ocean heat content with an emphasis on possible mechanisms responsible for what will be shown to be a dramatically large increase in the heat content (historical data from the same location extends the history of the ocean heat content back through the 1960s, showing a startlingly large increase in ocean heat content). Possible reasons for the increase are: (1) increased westerlies driving a stronger Antarctic Circumpolar Current flow, raising the isopycnals of the warmest waters to the height of the continental shelf for easy access via shelf upwelling, or (2) global warming of the world oceans deep waters have encountered southern flowing currents, delivering the warmed water to the ACC, eventually reaching the western Antarctic". Anyhow, maybe you can find someone to argue with on the appropriate thread, if you can find one.
  39. Not So Cool Predictions
    Rob #1 - yes it's a consensus of a whopping 31 "scientists"...except that a lot of the scientists on the list don't belong there, and most of the rest don't know what they're talking about.
  40. It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
    #53: "natural cyclical processes show stronger correlation in the surface record." So you are claiming that correlation requires causality? Did you run that past the denial establishment to see if they reached a consensus on that? What causes the PDO/AMO?
  41. Not So Cool Predictions
    Poor Dr. Latif. They will never get enough of misrepresenting his speech. The good side of all this is that this time they're risking to predict something. At least this is falsifiable.
  42. Not So Cool Predictions
    Dang. I took a sip of coffee right before I read "so far as to call it a 'growing concensus.'" Mistake.
  43. The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    I've just been looking at that graph again that shows ocean heat content increase. It came with today's blog-post. I see now that the data for ocean heat build-up come from Domingues et al(2008) - rather than Murphy et al(2009). So I guess that means a slight correction to the references section of the Guide is necessary. No big deal. It has just dawned on me now that I was interpreting this graph wrongly in my comments above. I see now that it's a graph of the heat anomaly, measured compared to 1950, not a graph of the absolute heat content of the ocean. Duh! My apologies for this error on my part and for taking up so much of your time. I'm now largely happy with the graph. I now think it is quite realistic. I don't think the bumps are so out of scale anymore. PS: I guess what threw me was the title: "Build-up in Earth's Total heat Content" . This made me think in terms of absolute accumulated heat (which I can see now it couldn't possibly be). Perhaps a little note to explain this distinction might help others to avoid the same confusion. In any case I take full responsibility for that misunderstanding! I hope I didn't lead too many people astray. Keep up the great work!
  44. thepoodlebites at 03:53 AM on 4 January 2011
    It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
    Recap: Warming trend: PDO+AMO shows stronger correlation than CO2, R^2 for CO2 = 0.44 R^2 for PDO+AMO = 0.85 where (R^2 is the coefficient of determination) A new article in the International Journal of Geosciences Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations with Temperature Changes, supports the idea of the weak correlation between CO2 and global warming, natural cyclical processes show stronger correlation in the surface record. Conclusions: "CO2 has not a causal relation with global warming and it is not powerful enough to cause the historical changes in temperature that were observed."
  45. A retrospective of the Climategate retrospectives
    They, and the multimillion dollar lobbyists feeding them, are going to attack climate science with new plateaus of ruthlessness and public relations campaigns! = = = = = = = = = = = = = = But you can only run a political campaign against science for so long. After a while it starts to really damage your credibility on other issues. The right wing will make some hay for a year or so yet, but one big arctic melt season or big el Nino and it will be egg on face time. IMHO the party managers are not stupid and will likely be seeking position that allows them to get some distance between the mainstream party and the louder, more strident 'its all a fraud' types. It they are not then their science (and some of their political) credibility is hostage to the next big global warming story.
  46. The 2010 Climate B.S.* of the Year Award
    TTT@77, "If you believe the reasoning is faulty then please discuss why." I have already done that. You just keep repeating the same wishful thinking. You also need to learn the difference between a theory and a hypothesis. Additionally, suggesting that I'm not smart enough to understand you and Lindzen is not defense. With that said Baird, and Drs. Cullen, Cicerone and Meehl all disagreed with Lindzen's hypothesis (and reasonable people reading that transcript will probably agree with Meehl et al). Also, going by your logic, one can only conclude that you think they (Meehl et al.) are also not smart enough to grasp Lindzen's unsubstantiated musings. Poor misunderstood Lindzen. Lindzen is entitled to his opinions, but not to his own facts. In science, one is required to provide evidence/facts to support one's hypothesis-- Lindzen did not, and has not, and that is B.S. So please stop trying to spin and distort this. "I consider the science and look at each conclusion and make my own mind up." LOL TTT, you really missed your calling in life. You should have been a politician, maybe you are ;) OK, there are five award winners. Then please defend each one using science and explain to us why they are not guilty of B.S. Additionally, being a "true skeptic", I'm sure that you will be happy to add a few more examples of B.S. from the contrarians/"skeptics"/those in denial about AGW. Gleick et al. made their case, now you make yours. We are all ears.
  47. Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 02:10 AM on 4 January 2011
    A Positive Outlook For Clouds
    As for the work of A. Dessler, based mainly on models - I remind comment R. Spencer from 09.12.10 and 31.12.2010. (e-mail exchange between A.D. and R.S.), and A. Dessler – RealCimate (09.12.10). For me, it is important - here - the sentence of R. S.: “What we demonstrated in our JGR paper earlier this year is that when cloud changes cause temperature changes, it gives the illusion of positive cloud feedback – even if strongly negative cloud feedback is really operating!” By R.S. drop area of low clouds, which results in increase in the share of high clouds - stopping LV (alleged positive feedback described by AD) - "was the first" - is the reason for the current increase temperatures. “Low-cloud feedback has a strong amplifying impact on the tropical ITCZ shift in this model, whereas the effects of high-cloud feedback are weaker.” - this result was obtained when tested AMOC (Sensitivity of Climate Change Induced by the Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Cloud Feedback, Zhang, Kang and Held, 2009.), which weakens in warm periods. Negative opinion of low clouds can be up to 4 times higher than assumed in the models, which used the A.D.: Is There a Missing Low Cloud Feedback in Current Climate Models? Stephens, 2010.: “The consequence is that this bias artificially suppresses the low cloud optical depth feedback in models by almost a factor of four and thus its potential role as a negative feedback. This bias explains why the optical depth feedback is practically negligible in most global models (e.g., Colman et al., 2003) and why it has received scant attention in low cloud feedback discussion.” I also think that the changes in low clouds (decrease) precede warming - and I have a "strong" evidence. What could be the reason? Svensmark's theory is according to the latest data for only a few percent of cloud cover (eg: Kulmala et al., 2010.). However, note that after the explosions of volcanoes (El Chichon in 1982 and especially Mt. Pinatubo 1991) observed a significant decrease in regional and global NPP, which is difficult to explain short-term (1-3 years) cooled. NPP only now reached the level prior to 1992 (Mt. Pinatubo). Here you can see that ozone levels are lowest circa 1992-1999 ( graph second from the top - on the second slide). The reaction is a bit low clouds shifted over time: Decreasing cloud cover - now slightly increases - such as ozone. This paper: Factors affecting arctic ozone variability in the Arctic, Weatherhead et al., 2010., shows why the fall of ozone in the atmosphere - especially topic of water vapor in the stratosphere is interesting (delaying the restoration of ozone). In the tropics, ozone (rzem the sun) strongly influences the clouds: Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing, Mheel et al., 2009.: “One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability.” “Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together.” “... during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle ... ...reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface.” Let's go back to NPP - phytoplankton - effects of ozone and ENSO (please note here, however, with regard to this work: Lack of correlation between chlorophyll a and cloud droplet effective radius in shallow marine clouds, Miller and Yuter, 2007. - “The interactions among aerosols, cloud properties, boundary layer dynamics, surface processes, and radiative effects are complex and can be non-monotonic ...”). : “The regions with higher DMS emissions show an increase in CDNC, a decrease in cloud effective radius and an increase in cloud cover.” “We estimate a maximum decrease of up to 15–18% in the droplet radius and a mean increase in cloud cover by around 2.5% over the southern oceans during SH summer in the simulation with ocean DMS compared to when the DMS emissions are switched off. The global annual mean top of the atmosphere DMS aerosol all sky radiative forcing is −2.03 W/m2, whereas, over the southern oceans during SH summer, the mean DMS aerosol radiative forcing reaches −9.32 W/m2.” Quantification of the Feedback between Phytoplankton and ENSO in the Community Climate System Model, Jochum et al, 2010. - shows that both the ENSO influence on phytoplankton, and phytoplankton affect ENSO. Production and Emissions of Marine Isoprene and Monoterpenes: A Review, Shaw, Gantt, and Meskhidze, 2010. - This review shows that according to numerous works, the impact of aerosols originating from the biosphere (including phytoplankton) can be decisive for the low clouds - and: Global phytoplankton decline over the past century, Boyce et al., 2010.. The first important work that indicates that ozone may have a significant impact on phytoplankton (DMS as a consequence of aerosol - a cloud low) was: Ozone depletion may leave a hole in phytoplankton growth, Andrew Davidson, Kelvin Michael, Manuel Nunez, Simon Wotherspoon and Ben Raymond, 2006. – with relation to this work: - we read: “New research suggests that the growth of phytoplankton is reduced by 56% when stratospheric ozone drops below 17% or less than 300 Dobson Units (DU).” But in another relation: Ozone hole alters Antarctic sea life, Emma Young, 2006., , is sentence: „However, Kevin Arrigo at Stanford University, California, says that on average, chlorophyll concentrations in Antarctic waters under the ozone hole have not changed since the late 1970s, when stratospheric ozone was much higher than today.” K. Arrigo also has estimated that: Primary production in the Southern Ocean, 1997-2006, Arrigo, van Dijken, and Bushinsky, 2008. - “Unlike the Arctic Ocean, there was no secular trend in either sea ice cover or annual primary production in the Southern Ocean during our 9-year study.” For 1997 - 2006 agreement. However, for the years 1987 - 2004, it was found that: Stratospheric ozone depletion reduces ocean carbon uptake and enhances ocean acidification, Lenton et al., 2009. - “We find that Southern Ocean uptake is reduced by 2.47 PgC (1987–2004) and is consistent with atmospheric inversion studies.” UVR indisputable impact on the primary production in Antarctic waters this work states: Temporal changes in effects of ambient UV radiation on natural communities of Antarctic marine protists, Thomson, Davidson, and Cadman, 2008.: “This recurrent decline in ozone over Antarctica between January and April coincides with blooms of diatoms that appear to have low UV-B tolerance but are responsible for ~47% of annual primary production in Antarctic waters.” And this paper: Ozone depletion: ultraviolet radiation and phytoplankton biology in antarctic waters, Smith et al., 2009. - “A minimum 6 to 12 percent reduction in primary production associated with O3 depletion was estimated for the duration of the cruise.” - It is noteworthy that in this figure, however, changes in chlorophyll usually precede changes in temperature. Figure adapted from: Satellite-detected fluorescence reveals global physiology of ocean phytoplankton, Behrenfeld et al., 2009.
  48. The 2010 Climate B.S.* of the Year Award
    @Albatros "And if you think Hansen et al. are wrong about the time lag of the oceans, then at least try and demonstrate here why their calculations are wrong (and cut and pasting Wikipedia doesn't cut it)." Their calculations are simply irrelevent as relates to the melting Antarctic finding. Once again, this is the deep ocean being discussed. Below the thermocline. The sceptical science article you quoted is looking at ocean warming above 700m or thereabouts.
  49. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    archiesteel #127: You did, however, make a strawman argument that "warmists cherry-pick all the time," What good does it do in a debate to invent false quotes? The only thing remotely similar to your fabricated quote, which I did write (partly borrowing wordings from the top post), was "that 'warmists' also frequently take selected areas of the world where heat records for the recent past are being set, while ignoring other areas where cold records are being set".
  50. The 2010 Climate B.S.* of the Year Award
    @Albatross "Lindzen interrupts: Absolutely...because you will have a higher response time you will pick up perturbations." This is the vital statement. And this is exactly the sort of thing I suggested might happen in my earlier post @ 62 and I gave the reasoning. If you believe the reasoning is faulty then please discuss why. If you are aware of a paper that has looked at this possibility specifically and come to some other conclusion then please let me know where it is. Until then Lindzen is entitled to have reasoned theories about things just the same as you are. If you believe Lindzen meant that thermometers LITERALLY measured highs better than lows then you're also entitled to that opinion but lets just say Lindzen is probably a lot smarter than you are so perhaps it is your understanding of his meaning that is faulty. "Can you please state for the record whether or not you support the 2010 winners of the Climate B.S. of the year award? " I consider the science and look at each conclusion and make my own mind up. I dont need to classify people before hearing what they say.

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