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Comments 111201 to 111250:

  1. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    TimTheToolMan, why exactly should an article explaining the mathematical proof against claims that 'positive feedback would lead to runaway warming' need to cite every imaginable feedback effect? They are immaterial to the issue at hand. Michael Le Page, when the article refers to diminishing returns it is in reference to a constant 'feedback multiplier' less than one being mathematically incapable of producing a runaway effect. You seem to instead be referring to cases where the 'feedback multiplier' itself decreases over time. That is an additional reason that positive feedback would not inherently lead to a runaway effect. Also, while heat output will increase to maintain equilibrium with heat input this doesn't really prevent runaway warming... look to Venus as an example.
  2. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    @ Radar30331, As they say, “The devil is in the details.” What have Hansen, Steig, Lyman, postulated about the heat content of the ocean system?
  3. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    I think this answer needs revising. The fundamental reason why positive feedbacks do not produce runaway warming is that the hotter the earth gets, the more heat it emits. Put another way, the hotter the earth gets, the faster it cools. The amount of infrared radiation emitted by Earth increases exponentially with temperature, so in simple terms, as long as some infrared can escape from the atmosphere, at some point heat loss overtakes heat gain. Yes, some positive feedbacks are diminishing - CO2 has less and less effect the more there is of it, for instance - but I don't think all positive feedbacks are diminishing.
  4. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Re: Badgersouth "The 'accuracy' of Pielke's postulate will therefore likely never be proven or disproven." This goes back to what I said originally, that IMO posters here are being too picky in expecting him to include caveats that you wouldn't insist on in the top line of consensus AGW abstracts. If Pielke can't make conclusive statements because "the requisite database simply does not exist" then Hansen, Steig, Lyman or whomever can't do so either right?
  5. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    Regarding : "For example: The Earth heats up, and some of the sea ice near the poles melts. Now bare water is exposed to the sun's rays, and absorbs more light than did the previous ice cover; so the planet heats up a little more." Why is it that the negative feedback of the open ocean radiating heat is never mentioned? Ice makes a very effective blanket. If you're going to offer an "unbiased" opinion on feedbacks then at least mention them all for your examples.
  6. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Berényi Péter, I am and was sure you know the problems quite well and that you're well aware that it does not have "immediate consequences either on numerical integration of these beasts ..." so widely used in many fields. For the same reason, I think that writing of that mathematical problem was just to make noise and confuse people.
  7. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    #49 Riccardo at 07:07 AM on 14 September, 2010 the millenium prize problem has a completely different goal than "simply" solve the Navier–Stokes equations I think I was clear enough. Re-read please. That problem is about the very existence of well-behaved solutions, which is of course different from actually solving the equations. It does not have immediate consequences either on numerical integration of these beasts which is relied upon heavily by GCMs. However, any step forward in this specific area of research would advance our general understanding of structures behind turbulent phenomena and that could be useful in climate modeling as well. In 3D flows a considerable portion of energy is being pushed to ever smaller scale features. This energy is thermalized eventually, but the road leading there is rather bumpy. The dissipation process is not uniform, on intermediate scales even focusing phenomena can develop giving birth to such extreme events as rainbands or tornadoes spawned from the eyewall of hurricanes making landfall. Therefore some rather tricky context-dependent statistics is required for the parametrization of sub-grid phenomena, one that is neither measured properly, nor can it be derived from first principles due to lack of understanding. BTW, I have found an essay which is highly relevant in this context. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 86, Issue 11 (November 2005) pp. 1609–1614. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1609 The Gap between Simulation and Understanding in Climate Modeling Isaac M. Held "Should we strive to construct climate models of lasting value? Or should we accept as inevitable the obsolescence of our models as computer power increases?"
  8. Polar bear numbers are increasing
    Heh, that should have been 'polar bear numbers are INcreasing' in the second sentence of the post above. Oi!
  9. Polar bear numbers are increasing
    Eric, the article above references a USGS study from 2006 which looked at only a few regions and specifically at habitat loss. These were sufficient to disprove the false claim that 'polar bear numbers are decreasing'. Adding in information about hunting would be irrelevant to the issue of climate change and misleading given that hunting losses can be recovered IF the habitat can support more bears. As to 'density dependence'... bears go where the food is. When there's no ice in some regions you're naturally going to get bears relocating towards areas that DO have ice. Until recently that included the Davis Strait region. So now you've got alot of bears there and not enough food for them... but even less food back in the areas they came from. The whole 'the population has grown over the past 30 years' bit is also a red herring because 30 years ago polar bears were on the brink of extinction due to there having been no hunting controls at all. The fact that numbers recovered so quickly once hunting limits were put in place shows that hunting is a manageable issue. Loss of habitat is not. As the available food supply dwindles so does the total number of bears. That is an inevitable and obvious dynamic.
  10. Jupiter is warming
    One place the deniers never mention when they take these off world trips ........ Venus. Can't be pointing out a planet with a 92 % CO2 atmosphere, and a 900 F surface temperature.
  11. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    HR, there were several articles on Barber's expedition last year and information about previous ice conditions. They should still be easily accessible from Google News or even in the 'mainstream media' links here. Why not go read up rather than jumping directly to unfounded allegations? The idea that it is somehow 'not new' or 'unimportant' that ships can go at nearly full power through supposed pack ice is also just silly on its face. Barber's point was that the satellites estimates were showing incorrect results for that area... which was proved by direct observation. The claim that PIOMAS is not widely used is, if anything, even more bizarre. How many times have YOU seen it brought up? Dozens? Hundreds? NSIDC refers to it frequently. It is all over the climate blogs. Even the (false) claim that 'only Zhang' references it would make it 'widely used' given Zhang's extensive connections with the rest of the 'arctic science community'.
  12. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    Found the following: "In the past, photosystem II (PSII) was considered a key weak link (Enami et al. 1994) but damage to PSII only occurs at high temperatures, often above 45 °C (Yamane et al. 1998)." So photosynthesis will weaken considerably in temperatures of over 45 degrees, just to set some limits to the tolerance of the ecosystems in the world. And of course if there's a cool season (like in India), annual plants will grow OK in the cool season.
  13. What about that skeptic argument that Jupiter is warming?
    I'm really enjoying these 'Basic Version' entries. Keep it up!!!!!!!!!!! rmp
    Moderator Response: [Graham] why thank you Sir. You are clearly a man of excellent judgement :)
  14. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    nealjking, no argument there, 70 degrees C (global average) will change most of earth uninhabitable for all eukarya (higher life). I probably should try to track the whole RUBISCO response curve somewhere before continuing.
  15. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    jyyh, If you are talking about 70 degrees C, we are no longer dealing with climate change. We are talking about planet change.
  16. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    archiesteel (#116) The roughly 200 polar bears killed (out of about 2000 around Baffin Bay) is in the link on the polar bear thread. About 100 were permitted (from another source), the rest poached.
  17. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    Another article possible future scientists, doing research on plants' response on GW, will need: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-3040.2001.00668.x/abstract Note that the response curves end on 40 degrees Centigrade. I would have liked them to continue up to 70 degrees which is about the limit simpler plant enzymes will work. As I said above, bacteria can work at higher temperatures, which is (I guess) the reason it took so long for Eukarya to develop (if one takes evolution for granted).
  18. Positive feedback means runaway warming
    I am uncomfortable about the soda pop analogy for CO2 in seawater. The naysayers get confused by this and cone up with all kinds of wrong arguments based on it. The ocean is not saturated with CO2. It would be better to describe the temperature dependance if the distribution coefficient. But even that would be wrong because I am not sure that the system is in equilibrium.
  19. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    29, jyyh: I agree with you about the rate of temperature change and its ecological impact: I've done some simple estimates to show that an 0.1-deg-C increase in global average temperature would push ecosystems 15 km poleward; or about 10 m upward (geography & topography cooperating, of course). (This is another one of Hansen's favorite points, as well.) At current rates, that's quite a bit of distance for a tree to move in 10 years! A more refined look at just the borders of the tropical zone seems to lead to another factor of 3 or more for its rate of expansion.
  20. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    18, Chris Colose: - With regard to carbon-cycle sensitivity: I was thinking of fossil-fuel-based CO2 as an initial input, and the additional CO2 from out-gassing as being part of the system response. This was one reason I didn't discuss the case (in the Advanced version) of a 100% dollop of CO2, which would have invited direct comparison with the usual 2X-CO2 climate sensitivity. - In general, the calculation should not be taken too seriously, as it is intended as a demonstration of self-limiting positive feedback, and not really as a model for CO2 in the atmosphere. The main point was to show that the concept of diminishing returns, in the case of positive feedback, was not just a case of "special pleading". - I will be very interested to see the discussion you & Rasmus post on feedbacks.
  21. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    VTG - are you volunteering?.
  22. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Albatross and (Moderator) following from this thread an authoritative post on the OHC analysis would be really interesting. Can you suggest someone who might be prepared to do that ?
  23. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    5.gpwayne Zhang - Many but widely used suggests, well, widely used by the arctic science community. I'm still looking for evidence of that. As good as it is, and it's probably the closest thing to climate science porn, does Prof Barber's reportage represent anything more than one data point?
  24. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    ClimateWatcher: The evaluation of the overall feedback for global warming is an active area of research, and will certainly not be resolved here. The main intent of the post was to make the point that a system can have positive feedback without having an exponential blow-out.
  25. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    6, John Cook: Thanks for stepping in. This is my first post in SkS, so I forgot that I have certain responsibilities for my "children". 1 & 8, beam me up scotty: Yes, I was also surprised that Hansen had made that remark. Riccardo and Chris Colose have dealt with the substance of that question already. My impression (formed in large part by some explication, by Chris Colose, on this topic in the RealClimate site; and largely reproduced above at 18) is that Hansen was discussing what could happen if a lot of things go very bad; so, kind of a corner condition. On the other hand, Stephen Hawking and James Lovelock have taken a more apocalyptic stance: My impression is that the science is not with them on this point. 25, MattJ: If you look at the Advanced version (link at the bottom of the posting), you can find an explicit discussion of the "classic" positive-feedback scenario (the squealing sound system), and the difference to the model of the carbon-cycle feedbacks.
  26. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    Putting this up here as an example of what sort of research can be done on, of the heat stresses in natural systems, maybe someone will experiment with higher increases in surface absorption of heat (what was the greenhouse wattage on the surface again? (Further note: the experiment should include producing the higher humidity to the experiment location as well (not really easy to do)): http://www.springerlink.com/content/ebcg4kx5e13q5mdj/
  27. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Baz, I put some time into answering your question quantitatively and with a thought through argument. Your response was "that's fair enough" but you continue to say you do not accept the world is warming. This is contradictory, UNLESS you also share your rationale why. If you're not prepared to do that, then you are trolling - simply putting up provocative questions in order to elicit a response, without having the respect to engage. So please, show you are not trolling, and given the answers myself and others have provided on your specific question as to how long the temperature record would need to show a falling trend, tell us not just THAT you disagree but WHY you do.
  28. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Hey, the loss of ice is nowhere near as scary as that bloke singing...truly worrying! HR - predictable response. Now tell us how many citations Zhang has.
  29. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    @Trueofvoice: "We accept AGW theory because of the overwhelming empirical evidence which validates the theory. We do not believe in it." Very well put.
  30. Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
    scaddenp at 07:13 AM, if you have been looking at the BOM site, checking the terrestrial minimum temperatures that we have been discussing, you would have seen that as a rule it is always the same, every day, at every station, including those in Queensland and Northern Territory, the terrestrial minimum is nearly always lower than the station minimum temperature, and only on the odd occasion is it otherwise. Apart from those odd occasions the only difference is by how what magnitude lower is the terrestrial minimum. I assume by your post that you haven't been checking the data as it is updated daily and so are merely speculating. Unless you understand what is actually occurring in the real world then how can you be so sure that you are applying the correct physics principles. The data from these BOM stations is most relevant because this particular theory of back radiation applies over both land and the oceans, the only difference being that the data being collected from these stations is happening under more easily controlled conditions on an ongoing basis and from a well distributed network covering a wide variety of conditions allowing greater analysis. With your understanding of basic physics and studying of the text books, I was hoping that you might be able to correlate what is being measured on a daily basis with the physics theory that applies, so perhaps dispense with the speculation and put forward some credible explanation.
  31. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    HR He's being doing Arctic sea ice for 25 years. If he's not been in that particular area before ..... it's because he couldn't get there by ship before. Be honest, would you want to land a helicopter on that surface?
  32. actually thoughtful at 14:51 PM on 14 September 2010
    The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Matt J Excellent post. Beyond the logic and the structured argument, another useful system for understanding why people choose to believe what they feel, rather than accept what the evidence tells them, is Myers-Briggs (M-B). According to M-B, only 16% of humanity is of the type they call "rationals" - for good reason. So those 16% are willing/able to look at the facts and come to logical conclusions. The other 86% MAY come to the logical conclusion, but they probably won't come to it using strict logical analysis. About half will use their feeling - even to decide scientific questions (perhaps Baz is in this category?). For the other half, the issue itself doesn't matter - only how it impacts their life. So you can see that just structuring a logical, fact based argument doesn't get you very far (16% BEST case). One also has to appeal to feelings - "how will you feel when there is no polar bear habitat left?" and to practical concerns - "how will it affect you when all of lower Manhattan is under water?" Hopefully the idea comes through my terrible examples above. Sadly, logic alone won't sway the masses. And the vast majority of the climate scientists are M-B rationals - and they literally don't know any other way to interact with the world. Witness the frustration of trying to communicate with Baz on this site. Tom PS - kudos to Daniel Bailey and pbjamm - Baz I hope you will use the opportunity to actually learn. Get beyond feelings and beliefs and begin to understand the science. We would all like for AGW to be a disproved theory - but if you come at it scientifically - it is very hard to see a path out from under AGW - other than changing human behavour.
  33. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    I've no argument agaist Ingersoll (SKI) limit, but want to point out that as long there's talk of CO2 various responses of biosphere should be taken in account. Clearly there are quite specific limits for a specific ecosystem to be located where they are, as the clines of various species are more an exception than the norm. These ecosystem survival limits could then be a deciding factor on where the temperature of the whole earth will eventually settle. As (generally) plants are more hardy than any insects (they were the first to colonize the land), the question becomes a one of mobility, that is the amount of dispersal of the species. It is the speed of change that does more damage than the (moderate amount) of warming, as insects and decayers(f.e.fungi) are faster in dispersal than the plants. Additionally the increased variability of the system with more energy creates problems, though on this point I'm of the (scientific) opinion that some of this increased variability stems from the location of the GIS, that may well affect the westerlies normally present on the southern Greenland latitudes.
  34. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    cruzn246 - are you try to say that temperature should increase linearly with CO2? (ie CO2 has gone higher, why hasnt temperature?). This might apply on a dry uniform planet, but the climate system here has a lot of internal variability and a vast ocean store to hide energy. If you look at individual model runs, you will notice that huge variability. You can periods of up to a decade with little happening - followed obviously by steep warming. On a decadal scale climate models dont have much skill because they are too sensitive to initialisation.
  35. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    The Barber "empirical evidence" seems to be 2010 ice thickness in an area in one year compared with ............. nothing? There's no suggestion in his reportage that he's specifically experienced ice in that area, at that time in preceeding years. Is this true? 5:37 That graphic looks a little alarmist. Either the MYI is way too thick or the FYI is being depicted as way too thin. I'm going with the second. Such graphics should be scientifically accurate. 6:10 "Widely used model PIOMAS" Is it? There isn't much evidence in the literature that the PIOMAS model is used beyond the authors of the model. Anybody want to justify that statement with peer-reviwed literature that doesn't include Zhang and his team?
  36. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    Re: cruzn246 (26, 27)
    "Could someone explain why we aren't seeing the warmest temperatures ever?"
    Sigh. You must really learn to be more patient. Here you go: "NASA reports hottest January to August on record; August tied for hottest in UAH satellite record". Do try to get more sleep. It's good for the body; and the soul. The Yooper
  37. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    Could someone explain why we aren't seeing the warmest temperatures ever?
  38. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Baz, The word "believe" belongs in a church or a masjid, not in science. Belief is based on faith, not on observation and analysis. Scientists do not "believe" in a given theory; they "accept" the theory given a preponderance of evidence. We accept AGW theory because of the overwhelming empirical evidence which validates the theory. We do not believe in it.
  39. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Just finished watching this over at Neven's blog & ran over here. To find Scott beat me... Good to see a repost of the Barber video. The Yooper
  40. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    All this analysis is very good, but I think the reason "positive feedback" is so widely misunderstood is still being overlooked. The reason people think that "positive feedback" always leads to runaway is because they are all familiar with one example where it DOES lead to runaway: the PA systems that squeal loudly instead of amplifying normally. This is because the feedback to the amplifier is positive, and positive feedback to an amplifier DOES lead to runaway (unless it is narrowband and at just the right phase); now if you dampen the runaway by tuning the phase, you can use this to turn an amplifier into a (crude) oscillator. As http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback puts it, "Positive feedback often leads to exponential divergences or exponential growth of oscillations." But even here, they were careful to say 'often', not 'always'. So all we really need to point out is that the familiar example is a special case: only in such special cases does positive feedback necessarily lead to runaway. In general, it leads to large but not necessarily divergent values (usually of oscillations).
  41. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    Hi Badger @211, Yes, I too am frustrated by the lack of explanation for them (NODC)adjusting the data in back January 2010. Please do let us know if and when they get back to you. Hopefully they provide a substantive answer.
  42. Video update on Arctic sea ice in 2010
    Upper left at 6:26 :)
    Response: A gold star for Scott :-) (the graph comes from here)
  43. European reanalysis of temperature confirms record warmth in 2010
    HR, No worries. Re the temperatures in the lower stratosphere. Those data seem at odds with the long-term trend in the RSS data. Not sure what is going on there. That said, RSS tend from circa 1995 is pretty flat...a response to the recovery of ozone perhaps?
  44. European reanalysis of temperature confirms record warmth in 2010
    Albatross, that's a great tool thanks. this is probably off topic but they show a recent warming trend after the latest volcanic activity in the stratosphere (clearer in the bottom graph). Does that matter?
  45. Polar bear numbers are increasing
    CBDunkerson (#10), thanks for answering on this old thread. The study group says that the Davis Strait population has grown over the past 30 years (as have most populations), that the growth rate is now just under the replacement rate without considering hunting and that along with hunting the decline is due to "short-term and local density dependence, stabilization of harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) numbers and declining ice conditions" Ice is the 800 pound gorilla knocking at the front door and is all the lead article in this thread talks about. Nothing about the elephant in the living room. You say it is "correctable" but have you asked the Inuit who get income (up to $20k) from selling the tags even if a bear is not killed as a result? Hunting impacts a huge percentage of bears, up to 10% of some populations, I don't see how you can say it is small. In any case, I fail to see how the general public is served by leaving out that important context (along with the local "density dependence" also known as "too many bears in one area").
  46. Polar bear numbers are increasing
    All of the above arguments seem to be well researched and effectively made. However, can anyone truly hold stance on a certain side of this argument unless they have actually experienced and seen the possible increasing or decreasing numbers of polar bears? And the statement of "no sea ice means no seals which means no polar bears" seems to be logical. Yet doesn't this statement contain a fallacy of composition? I see it unfit to make such a series of conclusions so cut and dry. There must be many other factors that affect the population of the Polar bears and to limit there existence to a dependence upon just one of those seems to me to be slightly frivolous. I hope I didn't offend anyone, I was simply offering my view upon the arguments thus given.
  47. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Re: pbjamm (146), Baz (many comments)
    "I have been lurking on this site for 1+ years now and have never felt the need to make my voice heard before. Now I am going to defend Baz."
     I'm going to take a cue from Chris Canaris and agree with you. While I certainly feel Baz is mistaken in his beliefs WRT the science of AGW, and that his position that 5 years is enough time to consider AGW having stopped is not supported by the evidence, being wrong and under-informed should not be enough for the "Troll" appellation to be hung on him. Skeptic, yes. Skeptic-transitioning-to-denier, maybe. Troll, not yet. If, in forthcoming comments, he cannot iterate a science-based foundation to his skepticism, I will reconsider this judgment. For now I will continue to consider him a seeker of knowledge. Unless he ceases seeking. Until that time, I will welcome any science-based interpretation of the available evidence. But I also expect someone presenting what they consider a robust, physics-based alternative to the current thinking on AGW to forthwith seek publication of their postulate in a reputable peer-reviewed journal. The Yooper
  48. Why positive feedback doesn't necessarily lead to runaway warming
    "The Paltridge paper is a re-analysis product, it's not observations." The re-analysis is re-analysis of observations. No one really thinks that these are appropriate to use to diagnose water vapor trends, which suffer from changes in instrumental over time. Yes. But that is the only data set we've got, and it indicates drying aloft. To be sure there are differing hygristors and humidity is even more difficult to measure than temperature. But if it was instrumentation causing the trend, one would expect the trend to change in recent decades as sondes became more consistent and better. But the trends appear consistent, even through the 2000s. "Trenberth, K. E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor. Clim. Dyn., 24, 741-758" In should be noted that drying aloft but increasing humidity near the surface is not inconsistent with a trend of increasing total column water vapor which this paper refers to. That is significant because, while CO2 is well mixed, water vapor decreases rapidly with height. CO2 forcing at a given level is then based on the temperature profile. H2O on the other hand causes forcing based on the temperature profile and the change of humidity with height. A steep lapse rate of humidity causes more cooling than a uniformly mixed amount of humidity for a normal temperature profile. "Note also that other reanalysis products show different results." All the reanalysis I have seen indicates drying aloft. Do you have a reference to any which indicate otherwise?
  49. Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
    #173 Moderators comment (Graham) and #200 Badgersouth My interpretation of Graham's comment is that it reflects an underlying thinking that there is a linear relationship between scientific findings and political action. The argument being put there is that Pielke snr should not report on the science of global warming because his comments might be used by climate change deniers for other purposes. But if we take the point of view as argued by Pielke jnr in The Climate Fix that the science and politics ought to be more separate than that then the logic of Graham's moderator's comment is not valid.
  50. The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
    Baz #106 I did answer your question, but rather than framing an explicit answer, I answered in terms of other questions. This was an attempt to encourage you to clarify your position (Socratic Method if you like). At the moment, with the information you've given me, I fear that your point of view is subject to inconsistencies, and/or shallow thinking. (Nothing personal, this is the kind of language used in scientific debates from time to time).

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