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Comments 112201 to 112250:

  1. 1934: the 47th hottest year on record
    Dr. Masters considers the phenomenon that led to 1934 and the currently ended Russian heat wave to be the same. It has to do with a polar jet stream the "gets stuck" farther south than usual. If you look at the temperature anomaly map there was an equally cold area to the east of the hot area. A friend in the North of England complained to me of unusually cool temperatures while the heat wave was going on in Russia. The heat wave is cherry picking if it is used to support AGW until further analysis is done.
  2. The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
    Berényi - I believe that 1-2°C global (as per 125,000 years ago) translates to 2-4°C or more in the Arctic. I would love a fact check from someone who has actual expertise in this (Pete Hogarth, for example), though. I don't know what the normal range of bowhead whales is - but there are multiple whale species present in the Arctic and Antarctic year round. Sorry - I don't consider this evidence in either direction. Current Greenland mass behavior seems to indicate a transition point, however, as is evident in the graph I posted in #38.
  3. Is the sun causing global warming?
    muoncounter at 12:04 PM, the abstract for the paper you extracted the graph from begins:- "Near-Earth variations in the solar wind, measured by the geomagnetic aa index since 1868, are closely correlated with global temperature ( r = 0.96; P < 10-7)." However it then on focused on only the northern hemisphere whilst acknowledging that the differences between the temperatures and trends of both hemispheres. Regarding correlation, some correlation is obviously necessary before scientists can begin investigation for any physical link. I find the expectations of many punters here towards correlation perplexing. There seems to be a requirement for any proposed influence to show almost total correlation before it will be acknowledged as being even relevant. This would be appropriate if the weather or climate only responded to one forcing. However the weather is a result of a large number of different forces of varying magnitudes and origins that variously oppose or amplify other competing forces to give the weather of the day, or the season, as winter and summer demonstrate. At certain times one particular force will dominate, at other times others will. Only when all these forces are fully understood will the weather be able to be modeled successfully, but we are not there yet. Similarly with the climate, there are many processes that are far from being understood, clouds, and solar winds being just two such processes. So dismissing any such process just because the correlation is not total seems rather premature to me.
  4. Is the sun causing global warming?
    Eric144, The problem with accepting Kirkby's work as factual is a simple one: it hasn't been replicated. Mann's work, by contrast, has been confirmed by repeated independent studies. I'd like to know why you find Kirkby more credible than any climatologist. My guess is he confirms your existing bias, but I'm willing to hear your argument. Stating that his work must be right as it gets funding from a big scientific organization is self-refuting, because the scientists you don't like (Mann, Hansen, Trenberth) also get funding from top scientific bodies. By your logic their work must also be correct.
  5. Is the sun causing global warming?
    doug_bostrom at 10:13 AM on 20 August, 2010 Kirkby's work shows that the science is not settled. I am conflating scientists and environmentalists because that is how the NASA/Hansen/Schmidt/Mann axis behaves. Even Pielke Jr and Hulme are committed environmentalists and they are supposed to be skeptics. "Well, well; correlation isn't causality? And yet the deniersphere clings to Svensmark's hypothesis? Isn't that ironic... " I'm sorry, what is a deniersphere ? Is it something little children play in ? That's what it sounds like to me. I'm glad I'm not a gamma minus. The CERN experiments are being done to explore the mechanism of cloud formation . scaddenp You are comparing sceptical science, a blog behind which there is no expertise, with a highly credible physicist like Kirkby. I would be surprised if there were any non sceptical, independent, individual physicists. Forgetting representative, political bodies.
  6. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Eric, there are a lot of ways to assess climate sensitivity. The commonest is direct calculation from model output (which comes out at around 3) but ECS may be higher has AR4 models dont track carbon feedbacks. This is ONLY about physical causes. IPCC WG1 has a section on estimating sensitivity from past response to forcing with many papers. Annan and Hargreaves just one of many different approaches. Necessarily, uncertainties are high. Annan at least uses an approach to limit the upper end.
  7. Is the sun causing global warming?
    BTW, if this graph is correct, aa to temperature is not even that good of a correlation.
  8. Is the sun causing global warming?
    #24: "the solar coronal magnetic field strength as indicated by the aa geomagnetic index, " Interesting. The aa index is clearly increasing [see figure 3 in the linked paper]. If you believe that aa is correlated with global temperature, then you must necessarily admit that the earth is in fact warming. But correlation? As the denialists always ask, what does that prove?
  9. NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
    doug_bostrom at 10:26 AM, what is the point you are trying to make? 1. 300 mm of rain in 36 hours has never before happened anywhere in the world at any time in recorded history, or 2. 300mm of rain in 36 hours only ever falls where it impacts adversely upon humans, or 3. if that occurs, the effects are worse if they have not been subjected to such an event for a very long time. The definition of denialist confines it's use to political debates, so you can continue to correctly use it with confidence in the political aspect of any debates you pursue. "denialist noun one who denies an assertion in a controversial political debate. usage note: This is usually used by those who make the assertion, or by those who implicitly hold the assertion to be true, of others. It is rarely used self-descriptively." http://www.allwords.com/word-denialist.html
  10. Is the sun causing global warming?
    #22: "CERN would not be spending huge amounts of money funding Kirkby unless they believed the research potentially highly fruitful." Oh, I don't know how true that is. I've been in and around particle physics projects for the last 6+ years; projects get funded and take on a life of their own. The original CLOUD proposals date back to 2000. Here's an interesting comment on CERN's experiment vis a vis Svensmark: Bent Sørensen, an environmental physicist at Roskilde University Centre in Denmark, believes Svensmark's paper lacks real evidence. "It's an interesting proposal for research, which is why CERN will try to acquire the knowledge that is lacking, " says Sørensen, "but I feel there's a large gap between finding statistical correlations with some assumptions and having a causal correlation or even a physical correlation." Well, well; correlation isn't causality? And yet the deniersphere clings to Svensmark's hypothesis? Isn't that ironic...
  11. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
    johnd, No. It is much more complex than that.
  12. Eric (skeptic) at 11:39 AM on 20 August 2010
    How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    From Weart, Annan, Hargreaves 2006 uses a probabilistic argument to estimate sensitivity from two observable variables, forcing and temperature. Using both negative and positive forcings and corresponding temperature changes, they calculate ranges of sensitivities and most likely values. No discussion of what physically causes those limits. Weart also mentions Lindzen's theory of self-regulating climate. Then he dismisses it by saying "...climate experts (aside from Lindzen and a few followers) were now nearly certain that serious global warming was underway". Apparently Weart believes (1) "serious" global warming is a reality rather than just a model result and (2) the "seriousness" of global warming means that Lindzen's theory of self-regulation is wrong. Can't find "Climate Models and Their Evaluation" at ipoc.ch where Weart says it is. I did find this http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/expert-meeting-assessing-multi-model-projections-2010-01.pdf but haven't finished reading it.
  13. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Bern, just to nit pick, orbital variations are about variation primarily to distribution of solar radiation. The effect is dependent on land/sea distribution so going back in time, the changing plate configuration is also a factor in climate. Meteor impacts I would say are mostly aerosol in effect?
  14. 1934: the 47th hottest year on record
    Since you're talking percentages. What % of the globes surface where humans recording temperature in 1934? If that was say 20% does that make it any more valid than the cherrypicking by the deniers?
  15. Temp record is unreliable
    BP - apologies. I have taken time I don't really have to read the GHCN documentation. The raw file should indeed be the thermometer readings as received from custodian corrected only for scale. If the individual data from environment Canada dont match individual data from GHCN, then you do have a case for asking why not. However, averaging isnt meaningful without methodology for the average. Is difference in the individual stations or in the averaging method? I note that GHCN rejects station data for which the raw data for homogenization correction is not available, so in principle, you should be able to find all that. Since you think the adjustments must be wrong, then pick the station with highest adjustment and get the homogenization data for that. Repeat the procedure in Petersen et al
  16. Is the sun causing global warming?
    Good luck to Kirkby - he might find something interesting. However, EVEN if GCR DO have a part to play in cloud formation, phenomenological studies would suggest the effect is weak and given the non-trend in GCR flux, it cant be responsible for current warming.
  17. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Thingadonta stops being serious when he mentions Al Gore. Stick with the science, Thingadonta.
  18. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Ogemaniac, CO2 is not inert with respect to IR, which is the only aspect that matters for the topic under discussion. The doubling of the number of CO2 molecules means drastically increasing the effect of CO2. Since the pre-doubling effect already was large, the increased effect will be large. 2 x 1 = only 2, but 2 x 1,000 = 2,000.
  19. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    @thingadonta - did you miss the part of the article where he said that external forcings in the past included a number of different elements, including solar irradiation, volcanic eruptions (& aerosols), and greenhouse gases? Obviously that list should include orbital variations, and potentially meteor impacts (although it'd have to be a big one to trigger a really long-term climate shift).
  20. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Yes, Eric, models do project maximum temperatures. If you don't know that, may I recommend Spencer Weart? Look for the section on GCMs, follow the references.
  21. NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
    JohnD, are you paying attention? 300mm of rain didn't fall over the ocean, it fell where people live and have been accustomed for a very long time to that not happening. Maybe there really are such things as "denialists." It's a word I use very infrequently because I don't think it applies very well to most people; I don't like generalizations of that kind and our language is excellently suited for conveying nuance. JohnD, what do you think? Is there such a thing as a "denialist?"
  22. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Good point, owl905. The comparison should be with the natural variation of global temperatures, rather than the absolute temperature in Kelvin. On that basis, a 20% shift is pretty significant. Especially as we're talking about a 20% shift upwards on top of an already relatively high interglacial temperature...
  23. Eric (skeptic) at 10:26 AM on 20 August 2010
    How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    "Our climate is highly sensitive to changes in heat." Can you quantify when the positive feedback stops since it has always stopped in the past? Are there models that max out temperature at some point? What specifically causes positive feedback to stop?
  24. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Yes, but the actual correlation between greenhouse gas levels and climate change in the past is not that good. This suggests variations in levels of greenhouse gases are not that infleuntial in affecting temperature, but rather follow other causes (such as c02 released when oceans warm due to lower solubility). Eg. C02 is known to follow rising ocean temperatures at the end of ice ages (soemthing Al Gore conveniently left out). Currently the correlation between c02 and T since 1850 is about 22%, and falling. One has to introduce a bit of gymnastics in the geologial record to explain why greenhouse gas levels don't often corralate with T, such as lower solar output in the Ordovician, and even in recent times such as increase in aerosols ~1940-1970, which all sounds a bit convenient.
    Response: "One has to introduce a bit of gymnastics in the geologial record to explain why greenhouse gas levels don't often corralate with T"

    Gymnastics? I would characterise it as taking into account all the forcings that drive climate. If the sun was cooler in the past, this obviously needs to be taken into account when calculating the planet's net radiative forcing. Similarly for the mid-century cooling, when you factor in solar dimming which is a directly observed phenomena and couple that with increasing temperatures at night even during the period of mid-century cooling, there is no inconsistency with greenhouse warming effect.

    Many of the misunderstandings about climate would disappear if everyone were to take into account the full picture, not just cherry pick the bits and pieces that lead to a misleading conclusion.
  25. Is the sun causing global warming?
    Kirkby's work might do that, eric144, sounds as though you wish for it to be so. But what does Kirkby's work have to do with environmentalists? How are the two things connected in your mind? I ask you because you're the latest person to appear here apparently burdened with such a conflation.
  26. Is the sun causing global warming?
    doug_bostrom Kirkby's work counters the perspective that the sun has no part to play in global warming as put forward in this blog. The difference in qualifications and credibility between the two individuals is utterly vast.
  27. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    If 3dC is 1%, then MattJ's range of potential temperatures is 300Cdegrees. That's unrealistic. The ice-core record gives the reality range - 10Cdegrees. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ice_Age_Temperature.png Doubling CO2 with a plus 3dC consequence would be a dependent variable increase of about 20% (factor in the lower rate of increase with the higher levels of CO2).
  28. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    MattJ @1 commits a common "Straw Man" fallacy in his reply, in presuming that the term "highly sensitive" must necessarily describe a climate response more extreme than what is actually observed. Another error is assuming there should be a linear 1:1 relationship between climate driver and climate response. That said, one of the persistent complaints by AGW skeptics is accusations of hyperbole and exaggeration in describing the impacts of climate change. This is the origin of the odious term "Alarmist", which is commonly applied to anyone who accepts AGW as proved, or likely. Accusations of "Alarmism" are, themselves, mostly a Straw Man. Most scientific papers on climate change are quite careful and measured in their conclusions. Even climate studies that predict more severe long-term impacts are based on a particular set of assumptions, and should not be presumed to be intended to frighten little children. At the same time, if the goal is to reach the broadest possible audience, and to use the most non-inflammatory language, perhaps some further explanation should be added, or perhaps even the word "highly" dropped.
  29. Can't We At Least Agree That There Is No Consensus?
    I am alone. How many people are required for a consensus? One. I am with my wife. How many people are required for a consensus? Two. I am out with my wife and another couple. How many people are required for a consensus? Four. I am out with a group of twenty people. How many people are required for consensus? Errr...wait...this isn't easy any more. Probably not all twenty. Maybe 18-19? I am a climate scientist, and have three thousand scientific peers. How many are required for a consensus? Hmmm......2500? 2700? 2900? Again, not an easy question with a definitive answer, other than the answer is NOT all 3000! A few crackpots does not a consensus unmake.
  30. Is the sun causing global warming?
    doug_bostrom at 09:34 AM, can you elaborate why you consider it not relevant.
  31. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    MattJ: The doubling of a small number is still a small number. It is actually pretty amazing that just a few hundred ppm of a trace, largely inert, gas could cause such a change to the entire planet.
  32. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Good post James. Another lesson (http://davidhortonsblog.com/2010/05/28/swings-and-arrows/) from past changes is that there is no magic negative feedback mechanism that magically kicks in to stop global warming. This wishful thinking (eg that plants are suddenly going to grow faster and gobble up CO2) is completely negated by the dramatic nature of past changes,
  33. Is the sun causing global warming?
    JohnD, "relevance or otherwise." You captured the reason why you don't hear of it.
  34. Is the sun causing global warming?
    No one has touched on the subject of solar winds and the solar coronal magnetic field strength as indicated by the aa geomagnetic index, and the relevance or otherwise of the doubling of the solar coronal magnetic field in the last 100 years, which correlates well with temperature increases.
  35. Is the sun causing global warming?
    As a general question, why are so many "skeptic" comments here tinged with political overtones, or things unproven to do with human nature? Is Kirkby's work intriguing because it's teasing out new information, or because it offers the fond hope of embarrassing "environmentalists?" Why do the two general sorts of things so often appear together when "skeptics" present their case? Why are irrelevancies so connected with science?
  36. Berényi Péter at 09:21 AM on 20 August 2010
    The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet
    #41 KR at 05:07 AM on 20 August, 2010 The last time temperatures were 1-2°C higher was [...] 125K years ago (your chart only goes to 20K years ago), and according to Kopp 2009 sea levels were over 6 meters higher than at present. Read Rimbu 2003 please. Or just have a look at the graph above. At 74.99N, 13.97E (pretty close to Greenland) SST was more than 2°C above its present value for several thousand years with no adverse effect on the Greenland ice sheet. And no, "my chart" (actually Rimbu's) does not go back to 20K years ago, just 10,000. There was a warm period after the end of the last glaciation (it is called Holocene Climatic Optimum), there is no question about that. It was much warmer than today, especially in the Arctic. If you don't believe me, read Bednarski 1990. A 7500 (7535±220) years old skeleton of a bowhead whale was found in Nansen Sound between Axel Heiberg and Ellesmere islands. How likely such a beast can get there in the foreseeable future? ARCTIC VOL. 43, NO. 1 (MARCH 1990) P. 50-54 An Early Holocene Bowhead Whale (Buluena mysticetus) in Nansen Sound, Canadian Arctic Archipelago JAN BEDNARSKI (Received 20 March 1989; accepted in revised form 23 June 1989)
  37. What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?
    Yes RSVP, there are 2 sides to a story but-in this case-you have one side that is backed up by over a century of scientific evidence, whilst you have the other side which is driven purely by ideology. A perusal of your past posts shows you unquestioningly supporting the ideological side of the story, whilst contemptuously dismissing the side backed by all the available evidence. I have no problem with you being open to the denialist side of the story, but you could at the very least back it up with *evidence*, rather than hyperbole. How is it "hubris" to simply point out the obvious *fact* that human activity is generating over 5 billion tonnes of *net* emissions in the atmosphere per annum (compared to nature, with *net* emissions of less than 10,000 tonnes per annum)? How is it hubris to point out the obvious *fact* that-since the Industrial Revolution-atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased by over 100ppm, after having been *stable* for at least the last 10,000 years prior? How is it hubris to point out the simple *fact* that global temperatures have risen by more than 0.5 degrees in the last 60 years-in spite of a drop in Total Solar Irradiance-at *exactly* the same time as the largest increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the last 250 years? How is it hubris to point out the fact that all of this is *entirely* consistent with our understanding of the role of CO2 in the *natural* Greenhouse Effect, & how increased levels of CO2-from human activity-will impact on it? More to the point, how is it "cult-like" to arrive at a point of view based on analysis of *all* the available evidence-as compared to accepting a point of view simply because someone else-without any evidence to back it up-has told you its the case?
  38. Is the sun causing global warming?
    muoncounter Very simple reply. CERN would not be spending huge amounts of money funding Kirkby unless they believed the research potentially highly fruitful. There is always a queue of environmentalist / scientists ready to debunk anything that contradicts their agenda. Kirkby's background is highly credible (more credible than any of the climate 'stars'). The science is not settled. It never is. Every day, another scientist tries to make a name from himself. *** A "galactic lens" has revealed that the Universe will probably expand forever. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11030889
  39. How climate skeptics misunderstand past climate change
    Claims like "Our climate is highly sensitive to changes in heat. We can even quantify this: when you include positive feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 causes a warming of around 3°C." have always amazed me. How can you call this 'highly sensitive'? A DOUBLING of the independent variable is causing only about a 1% change in the dependent variable. That does not sound like "highly sensitive" to me. Neither does it to the skeptics.
  40. What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?
    If Man has affected climate, why does it appear so insurmountable to fix?
    My favorite metaphor for human bumbling is The Sorcerer's Apprentice.
  41. NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
    A natural disaster is generally only deemed such when two separate factors are bought together, a natural event, and an affected population. A natural event, even an extreme event, is in itself not a disaster, in fact in many cases it's effects may be all beneficial and necessary for the natural world. Whilst it may be debated whether or not humans are changing the weather, what is certain is that if infrastructure is built where it is in the natural path of where flood waters, high winds or fire pass in the normal course of events, then it is obvious that the two combined factors will result in a disaster of varying magnitude. I don't think that 300mm of rain in a 36 hour period is as an uncommon event as suggested. If it falls over the ocean it would be ridiculous to nominate it as a disaster. Cyclonic winds that originate at sea only become a disaster in they make landfall over a populated area, and there is now some thinking that such large populated areas do create conditions that "draws" such events towards them, but that is another story. Some of the biggest wildfires go virtually unknown because they burn unchecked in remote unpopulated areas, but when humans are attracted to settle in areas most prone to extreme fire conditions, the makings of a disaster are put in place irrespective of whether the climate changes or not. Traditionally humans populate the most fertile land first, and this is frequently land formed through alluvial deposits, river flats, flood plains and the like. Without any human built infrastructure the area is formed because the silt carried from other areas is dropped as the waters spread out and slow down. Any obstructions built in the path of the flow work the opposite causing the water to speed up and washing away the obstructions and exposed land, and thus what was previously a positive event becomes a disaster, not because nature has changed, but because of the presence of human habitation. The next phase of the current floods in Pakistan is that the vast reservoir of flood water will increase the amount of moisture evaporated that will then be carried and deposited somewhere to the east, bringing either a positive or negative to the next population that it might fall upon.
  42. Plain English climate science - now live at Skeptical Science
    John. I thought you could use this. It's got 285 words and fits on a single Word Document page. Good luck. ________________________________________________ CO2 EFFECT IS WEAK I have re-titled this section in order to make it easier for the eye of the uninformed person, as he scans the page, to pick up on this argument because: 1) They may have trouble recognizing the abbreviation “CO2”. 2) They may not grasp what the word “weak” refers to. THERE IS TOO LITTLE CARBON DIOXIDE TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE A common argument made by those who do not believe in Man Made Global Warming is that, since Carbon Dioxide makes up such a small part of our atmosphere, it cannot possibly have a major effect on our temperature. This belief is based on the very simplistic idea that the smaller something is in size, the less capable it is of having any effect on the world in general. This idea can be easily seen to be wrong by using poison as an example. Imagine that you need a teaspoonful of Poison X in order to kill yourself. There are many poisons though and they are all different from each other, with different abilities. So you can now imagine Poison Y being able to kill you with just a single drop. Why would far less of one poison be able to kill you compared with another poison? Because their chemistry and abilities vary so very much from each other that they can affect the Human body in different ways. Now imagine a person who, for some strange reason, insists that Poison Y mentioned above, cannot possibly kill you, with a tiny drop, simply because he believes that there is not enough of it. You will realize, right away, that this person has a very simple minded view of the world in general. We all know that different things can have greater effects than others regardless of their size. [I would put the conclusion below in bold in order to make it stand out to the "plain" reader.] Greenhouse gases, like Carbon Dioxide, are no different. The design of the molecule, not how much of it there is in the atmosphere, is what gives it much greater ability to retain heat than other gases.
  43. NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
    Doug Bostrom : "How about a straw poll, slightly off-topic. Does anybody care to weigh in on what Pete's implication about the UN references? It's all part of that great big conspiracy, obviously ? The New World Order/Secret Government/Black Helicopters/Masons/Marxist-Leftist UN, who want to take over the world and tax us all to within an inch of our lives. Well, that's what that Monckton chap reckons and it seems that a few so-called skeptics take him at this word. No, seriously...
  44. NASA-GISS: July 2010-- What global warming looks like
    Meanwhile, leaving the edge-of-the-bell-curve world of Joseph D’Aleo and his counterfactual cohorts, we're yanked sharply back to emerging facts: Pakistan -- a Sad New Benchmark in Climate-Related Disasters Devastating flooding that has swamped one-fifth of Pakistan and left millions homeless is likely the worst natural disaster to date attributable to climate change, U.N. officials and climatologists are now openly saying. Most experts are still cautioning against tying any specific event directly to emissions of greenhouse gases. But scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva say there's no doubt that higher Atlantic Ocean temperatures contributed to the disaster begun late last month. Atmospheric anomalies that led to the floods are also directly related to the same weather phenomena that a caused the record heat wave in Russia and flooding and mudslides in western China, said Ghassem Asrar, director of the World Climate Research Programme and WMO. And if the forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are correct, then Pakistan's misery is just a sign of more to come, said Asrar. "There's no doubt that clearly the climate change is contributing, a major contributing factor," Asrar said in an interview. "We cannot definitely use one case to kind of establish precedents, but there are a few facts that point towards climate change as having to do with this." There's also no doubt that the Pakistan flooding will join the ranks of the worst natural disasters in recorded history. ... During the most intense storms, about a foot of rain fell over a 36-hour period. Parts of the affected areas, in particular Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province (formerly Northwest Frontier province) received 180 percent of the precipitation expected in a normal monsoon cycle. More rain is expected in the days ahead. Records show that the famed Indus River is at its highest water level ever recorded in the 110 years since regular record-keeping began. Estimates put the number of displaced people at somewhere between 15 million and 20 million, and the government believes about 1,600 are confirmed dead. More
  45. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
    batsvensson wrote : "You have not only got the facts about decease control wrong but you also does not seams to distinguish between total production vs. productivity of rise." Hmm, yes, if you say so - whatever it is you are saying ! I'm still stunned by your "The cause of malaria being spread is not mosquitoes or warming but ignorance.". But I can't work out whether you mean the ignorance of those on the receiving end (nothing to do with race, of course), or the ignorance of those who don't agree with you (nothing to do with arrogance, of course). Perhaps those in the Kenyan highlands (who are not used to being affected by malaria) are ignorant for not thinking that they might be affected one day (even those who might doubt AGW) ? Who knows - possibly you believe you do.
  46. Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
    The original source of the wiki graph reveals that "A Apogee SP-110 precision Pyranometer was used to measure the solar radiation levels, but these have not been calibrated to give absolute values, but are displayed as a scaled value for reference only. " BTW Any chance of returning to the topic of Waste Heat vs Greenhouse Warming any time soon is there?
  47. Of satellites and temperatures
    Pete Ridley wrote : "He then links to physicist Charles R. Anderson’s An Objectivist Individualist blog article “Satellite Temperature Record Now Unreliable”" This is now beyond parody, as far as denial is concerned. Someone recently predicted that, now that the satellites were showing similar trends to ground-based measurements of temperatures, those in denial would turn about-face and decide that those records had to be denied somehow. And so it came to pass. Amazing and a wake-up call to those so-called skeptics who still have a trace of credibility left to rescue : look at the sort of people you are associating yourself with and see how their views are determined by pre-conceived beliefs a long, long way away from scientific reality.
  48. Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
    BP #11 Why [has] hurricane intensity dropped dramatically between 1959 and 1972? Nope, again, that's a hypothesis (over an even shorter time time span than the early 70s to the present day where we have an increase). This hypothesis will be difficult to test due to low statistical power, and because it's unclear what should be measured to test it (or if the measurements are available). Again you're overstating your case. In this example you appear to be cherry picking to suit your preconceptions.
  49. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Effects of Climate Change
    batsvensson at 01:07 AM, by ignorance do you mean that the human carriers of the malaria parasite are ignorant that are in fact carriers of the disease. Like many diseases, the ability for humans to spread diseases has been enhanced as they travel to, and inhabit places further and faster than ever before.
  50. Can't We At Least Agree That There Is No Consensus?
    David Horton:
    Was thinking yesterday about another example of consensus, one used (like Galileo) quite incorrectly by the deniers, and that is continental drift. If I remember correctly when it was first proposed, as a theory, it depended entirely on (a) the shapes of Africa and South America and (b) some biogeographic distribution puzzles.
    Actually, there's also (c) a proposed mechanism which was (and is) physically impossible, something akin to the continents plowing along like unpowered icebergs through the ocean. Wegener wasn't the first to notice (a) or (b). His (c) was thoroughly rejected, and properly so. Regarding (a) wikipedia notes: " It was observed as early as 1596 that the opposite coasts of the Atlantic Ocean—or, more precisely, the edges of the continental shelves—have similar shapes and seem to have once fitted together." Once it was recognized that the seafloor basalt itself was moving, and the continents were moving like icebergs floating in a moving sea, i.e. Wegener's (c) was replaced with something reasonable, acceptance by most geologists came quite quickly (by the standards of scientific revolutions). Something like that happened within the world of science in a similar timeframe regarding the "saturation" of CO2's ability to absorb LW IR "disproving" a significant role by CO2 in keeping the planet warm ... interestingly, though, denialists still puppet that misconception 50+ years after it was laid to rest, while you don't see too many people claiming that continents plow through the basalt sea floor!

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