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RSVP at 19:09 PM on 23 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
"KR Please - if you want to promote (as you apparently do) the idea of waste industrial heat causing global warming, then look at the numbers. It just doesn't add up." I am not sure why you say this. From what I have read here, GHG's have brought temperatures up on Earth some 30 Kelvin from where they would be otherwise. An increase of 100ppm CO2 due to humans with respect to an original 250ppm (or thereabout) represents a 40% increase. Based on the most simplistic notions of proprotionaly, the "numbers" dictate something closer to a (0.4 x 30 = 12) twelve degree increase which is obviously not being detected. Aside from the "numbers", in earlier discussions there have been those defending AGW while at the same time asserting that radiation and heat transfer have nothing to do with each other. There seems to be general misconceptions on quantum electrodynamics that are affecting biases in a big way. Furthermore, if the science is so well established, what exactly needs to be discussed? -
skywatcher at 19:06 PM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
#74 - shawnhet, your last sentence does not make any sense. There's a huge difference between distribution of heat and addition of heat. One can cause a long-term change in a system, the other can't. -
Marcus at 18:51 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
"Climategate and the subsequent IPCC-gates"? Oh that's just too funny for words. In spite of the attempts by the Right-Wing Media to get mileage out of the e-mails (obtained via a CRIMINAL ACT, I might add), the reality is that it turned out to be a massive storm-in-a-teacup. Even the most Right-Wing media outlets have since dropped the story-leaving just the Right-Wing conspiracy Websites to go on about it (which is essential for them given the lack of any contrary evidence to AGW). Similarly, all of the alleged errors of the IPCC-again highlighted by the Right-Wing press-have likewise proven to have precious little substance. The so-called "avalanche of skepticism" that you claim has actually ceased to materialize-all that happened was that the Denialists become even more convinced of the existence of this non-existent conspiracy. I'm just waiting to hear about when the hackers will be arrested & charged. I've almost no doubt that they have close links to the same organizations that give Oxygen to the likes of Watts, Plimer & Monckton. -
gpwayne at 18:37 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
1. adeladyIt's a shame it has to be intellectual, where people have to acknowledge others' superior expertise.
That acknowledgement requires humility. A striking characteristic of Climate change denialism is the certainty invested in opinions, for all denialism is driven by beliefs rather than evidence. Belief systems rarely engender humility because, by their nature, they require followers to 'know' they are right. The Dunning-Kruger effect is another manifestation of this problem. 4. MattJ...most conspicuous in the failure of his thinking is the false dichotomy between the authority with which he now speaks about music and musicianship, and the parental authority kids hate when their parents tell them to go to bed.
It is because they are children that they confuse the nature of the authority, believing it to be arbitrary. It is the argument used by climate change deniers to debunk the science: that scientists have an ideological or economic agenda which shapes the results they give us, in order to exercise authority over what we do and how we live. My point is that this authority isn't like a parent, who gains it merely by copulating. It is earned, and the price is high to those who do the work we hear about, for they are the best in their fields. The sub-text, by the way, is anti-intellectualism or inverse snobbery - the demeaning conflation by fundamental ideologues of intellectual achievement and socialism/liberalism/humanism.That is, rather than recognize that scientific authority is based on people doing their homework, so that their opinion really IS worthy of authority and respect, the skeptics turn up their noses and stamp their feet shouting 'no' just like the little kid who doesn't want to take a bath when his parent tells him he must.
Or go to bed. The weird thing about this remark is the deja vu quality, since it's exactly what I thought I said in my piece. 6. Joe Blog You refer to issues of trust. I would like to add that the deference I refer to (and that was queried by omnologos) is a trust in the scientific method, not scientists. In any socialogical group you will find a statistical distribution of saints and sinners. The scientific method is designed to weed out the sinners and it works well enough - given time. That's the tricky bit with climate change - people say 'let's wait until we've got better data, more evidence...' but if any of the putative tipping points are reached meanwhile, we're screwed. In lieu of blind faith, I'll accept what the consensus and logic tells me - because I do believe they speak with authority, and I don't believe they have any reason to lie, since the lie will be discovered all to quickly in this fevered scientific climate. 9. HumanityRulesWhen science collides with politics and social policy I think it's very much necessary to do plenty of questioning.
Sure, but principally one should question the politics and the social policy, not the science that catalysed the discussion. Remember too that denialists do not 'discuss' anything, they just tell us why we're wrong and have no authority to tell them what to do. -
Pete Ridley at 18:34 PM on 23 July 2010Models are unreliable
Hi folks, thanks to those of you who have responded with an attempt to debate in a reasonable manner the issue of evidence that is supposed to support the claim that climate model predictions/projections have been validated. I will respond to each of you in turn in subsequent comments. First, since for some reason my fist comment on this blog (on the “Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line” thread has been removed let me repeat it here. The IPCC and other supporters of The (significant human-made global climate change) Hypothesis depend very much upon the “projections” of the computerised climate models. The validity of those projections has been challenged repeatedly by sceptics but they are still depended upon to support the notion that our use of fossil fuels will cause catastrophic global climate change. I have been debating this on several blogs with software developers with an interest in this subject, such as Steve Easterbrook, William Connolley (Note 2) and James Annan (Note 3) but it seemed that as soon as I mentioned Dr. Vincent Gray the debate stopped. Dr. Gray is author of “The Greenhouse Delusion”, a member of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (Note 4) and was responsible for having the IPCC admit that climate models had never been properly validated, despite the IPCC trying to suggest otherwise. (In response to his comment the word "validation" was replaced by "evaluation" no less than 50 times in the chapter on "Climate Models - Validation" in an early draft of the IPCC's "The Science of Climate Change".) Yesterday I sent the following comment to Steve Easterbrook’s blog (Note 5) but he refused to post it. Is Skeptical Science prepared to? ________ Climate models are inadequate because of our poor understanding of the fundamental global climate processes and drivers. Improving the quality of the software will not improve their performance. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Popular Tehnology has put together a list of respected scientists who recognise this fact. One of these, Freeman Dyson says "My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models." Have a read of what the rest have to say (http://www.populartechnology.net/2010/07/eminent-physicists-skeptical-of-agw.html). IPCC reviewer Dr. Vincent Gray is putting together an article on the subject of climate model validation. I’ll let you know when it’s available. -------------- There is no one-liner that will rebut this criticism by a true climate science sceptic. NOTES: 1) see http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rebut 2) see http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2010/06/engineering_the_software_for_u.php 3) see http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2010/07/penn-state-live-investigation-of.html 4) see http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=374&Itemid=1 5) see http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/?p=1785&cpage=1#comment-3436 Best regards, Pete Ridley -
kdkd at 17:57 PM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
gallopingcamel #92 Please use the Skeptical Science List of Arguments to see how many of the points in the mensnewsdaily article you cited are clearly the result of credulity or dishonesty on the part of the author. I got two paragraphs in and already spotted two discredited arguments before I gave up. If after that, you find it's published something with any credibility whatsoever, please do come back and enlighten us. Repeating dishonesty however does not make them magically come true. -
scaddenp at 17:37 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Peter Ridley - but climategate stuff was spin. Just much easier to read cherry-picked quotes and say tut tut than it is to go to the hard work of getting the whole context. As to authority, you are agree you have to have skill to have authority but I fail to see how climate models have not earned that. Whether climate is chaotic is an open question - weather is - but regardless, we manage to navigate the solar system despite it being a chaotic system in the formal sense. "Reliable analysis and prediction of global climates is impossible due to the significant scientific uncertainties." This is an assertion that you must back with evidence. Sure, you cannot predict next new year's day temperature but that is not what climate is. Predicting a 30 year average within known limits for a given set of forcings is the what predicting climate is about. -
ScaredAmoeba at 17:06 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
scaddenp at 13:55 PM on 23 July, 2010 "Some thoughts - I am extremely wary of books...." We should all be extremely wary!Leader ….This study quantitatively analyses 141 English-language environmentally sceptical books published between 1972 and 2005. We find that over 92 per cent of these books, most published in the US since 1992, are linked to conservative think tanks (CTTs). Further, we analyse CTTs involved with environmental issues and find that 90 per cent of them espouse environmental scepticism. We conclude that scepticism is a tactic of an elite-driven counter-movement designed to combat environmentalism, and that the successful use of this tactic has contributed to the weakening of US commitment to environmental protection.....
Summary ….Environmental scepticism is an elite-driven reaction to global environmentalism, organised by core actors within the conservative movement. Promoting scepticism is a key tactic of the anti-environmental counter-movement coordinated by CTTs, designed specifically to undermine the environmental movement’s efforts to legitimise its claims via science. Thus, the notion that environmental sceptics are unbiased analysts exposing the myths and scare tactics employed by those they label as practitioners of ‘junk science’ lacks credibility. Similarly, the self-portrayal of sceptics as marginalised ‘Davids’ battling the powerful ‘Goliath’ of environmentalists and environmental scientists is a charade, as sceptics are supported by politically powerful CTTs funded by wealthy foundations and corporations.....
The organisation of denial: Conservative think tanks and environmental scepticism Jacques, Dunlap and Freeman Environmental Politics Vol. 17, No. 3, June 2008, 349–385 http://tinyurl.com/Think-tanks-pseudoscepticism -
Pete Ridley at 16:48 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
John, we defer to experts in the complex sciences underpinning heart surgery or aerodynamics because they have a track record of successful analysis, prediction and application. This has not been achieved by scientists trying to predict future climates because the processes and drivers of global climates are horrendously complex (verging on the chaotic) and are presently very poorly understood. Reliable analysis and prediction of global climates is impossible due to the significant scientific uncertainties. All that is possible at present is speculation about what might happen using fictitious scenarios and unproven hypotheses. As you say, “Scientific authority should not be confused with the authority of parents, or teachers, bosses or politicians”. Unfortunately the authority of the scientists involved in researching those poorly understood processes and drivers of global climates has been thoroughly undermined by politics. That is why lay people are becoming increasingly suspicious of the claim that our use of fossil fuels is driving global climates towards catastrophe. Climategate and the subsequent IPCC-gates have started an avalanche of scepticism among lay people around the globe. Best regards, Pete Ridley -
chris1204 at 15:30 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Marcus at 13:51 PM on 23 July, 2010 Given the multiplicity of discipline that go into climate science, I don't think a mining geologist would be automatically disqualified. Plimer disqualifies himself through lack of coherence and dishonesty. doug_bostrom at 14:19 PM on 23 July, 2010 I wasn't criticising Weart. I went and read this book because so many people on this site recommended him especially in response to posts by perceived 'sceptics' and 'deniers.' I regarded it as time and money well spent though I had hoped to find more of the nuts and bolts of the science. scaddenp at 13:55 PM on 23 July, 2010 I followed up your link to Deep Climate on McIntyre - yes, it's food for thought and I'll try to give it more than the passing glance I can afford right now because of lack of time. As regards data supposedly covered by confidentiality agreements, I have heard so many versions that I don't know quite whom to believe. -
scaddenp at 14:58 PM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
"While I believe that mankind does influence the global climate, via aerosols and CO2 emissions, the size of the effect is much smaller than the IPCC wants us to believe." And what is the evidential basis of this belief? -
gallopingcamel at 14:43 PM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
While I believe that mankind does influence the global climate, via aerosols and CO2 emissions, the size of the effect is much smaller than the IPCC wants us to believe. If John Cook had asked "What percentage of scientists do not believe in the theory of catastrophic man-made global warming?", the answer might have come out rather differently. The answer to this question would likely be 97% non-believers and only 3% believers. See the article below: http://mensnewsdaily.com/2010/07/18/97-of-scientists-do-not-believe-in-the-theory-of-catastrophic-man-made-global-warming/ -
Doug Bostrom at 14:19 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Chris Canaris, I don't understand what your point was regarding Spencer Weart. Weart does not fashion himself as a practiced authority on climate science nor have I seen him described here as such. He is in fact a historian with a disciplinary background suitable for researching and narrating the history of topics involving physics, you can read his bio here if you're curious about his bona fides. As a competent and diligent historian Weart not only produces a remarkably coherent narrative of a very complicated topic but also offers his readers the Shovel of Authority in the form of extensive citations leading to authoritative sources. Choosing to exert the effort involved in using the Shovel of Authority is of course up to the reader; Weart has no means of injecting the material referenced in his citations directly into the heads of readers. For those scratching their heads and wondering, "Who is this Spencer Weart guy, anyway?" his history of climate science may be found here. -
scaddenp at 13:55 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Some thoughts - I am extremely wary of books. I like them to have a good bibliography and footnotes so I can check anything that seems important. They certainly have their place in gentle introduction into an unknown field but I would check reviews before buying a book. Textbooks are slightly different. The publisher wants to make money, so they need to recommended to students by professors in the textbook field. For that reason, a textbook is generally strenuously reviewed. A well-used textbook in its 3rd plus revision I think is a good starting point. As to McIntyre - what about inappropriate use of ellipses ? Charges about withholding data that isn't a researcher's to give? And as to media - well seeing the reporting about anything you have been involved in should give you a healthy dose of skepticism. -
Marcus at 13:51 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Chris Canaris. It's worth noting that Plimer is an authority in Mining Geology-& if I ever needed to know *anything* about how to find & obtain minerals in the ground, he'd probably be the person I'd listen to. What I wouldn't do is say "well Plimer says that this is the perfect place to find copper ore, but my friend-the Botanist-says thats rubbish. So I'll just trust the Botanist". That would be completely *illogical*. Yet I see many people out there trusting the word of a Mining Geologist-one found guilty of fudging data-over the word of many Climatologists! -
John Brookes at 13:50 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Great post. I get a little tired of having points I make dismissed as "arguments by authority" by the notty community. They seem to take equality of man a bit far, thinking that not only are all men equal, but so are all opinions. We are in the fortunate position of having a nice overall picture of AGW painted for us. But the reality is, of course, full of nooks and crannies which real climate scientists know about, and which we can remain blissfully ignorant of. I find the effort the notties put into trying to understand stuff which they just don't have sufficient background to properly appreciate quite strange. On the music theme, my ex-wife is a muso. One time at Rotto a group of us were arguing, and one of them (a very good arguer) was making points about music. Her arguments seemed convincing (although a bottle of red probably helped). My ex kept quiet at the time, but afterwards told me that the arguers musical points were total rubbish. I did not ask why, but just deferred to authority..... -
Marcus at 13:42 PM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Truth Seeker (what an ironic name), can you provide *proof* that any threats or coercion were used by Climate Scientists to prevent anti-AGW people from getting published? Sure they might have said what they *wanted* to do-in private e-mails to friends & colleagues-but that doesn't mean they *actually* do it. If I'm feeling angry about someone, I'll sometimes say "I'm going to kill that guy"! Doesn't mean I'm guilty of murder though. This is why so many of us treat the climate-gate fiasco as such a joke, because the real *crime* was that someone hacked into the computers of a research facility-not what people said, in e-mails, in the heat of the moment. Seeing Papers like those of MacLean get published suggests that, if anything, publications are being TOO SOFT on the anti-AGW crowd-by holding them to a much lower standard. Perhaps they do it so as to stop the Denialists from crying out that their voice isn't being heard, & that its all a conspiracy. Problem is that it HASN'T WORKED, & the denialists still cry CONSPIRACY! -
chris1204 at 13:28 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
I've shared my ambivalence about the 'authority' of science on this site before. Oddly enough, the first book I ever read on global warming was Plimer's 'Heaven and Earth - the Missing Science.' It all sounded pretty convincing though sometimes a tad repetitious and circular - but I was slightly perturbed by the fact that a couple of graphs seemed to be unsourced. I was initially inclined to be charitable and put it down to oversight. I understood that the book had attracted controversy. I later linked into a video of the ABC debate between Plimer and Monbiot. Monbiot seemed a very angry young man - rather intense and zealous (he presents as much more genial in the recent Guardian debate). Plimer was rather pompous and seemed not to answer questions giving the interview a very disconnected quality. Significantly, Monbiot accused Plimer of misquoting a reference. Plimer simply ignored the question. I thought I'd do a little bit of homework and checked the reference. Plimer had in fact blatantly misrepresented his sources. I learnt incidentally that Plimer had been accused of misrepresenting references in his debunk of Creation Science. I didn't follow up that particular issue - however, after seeing what I had found in 'Heaven & Earth,' I would not touch anything by Plimer. I would normally have regarded Plimer as an 'expert.' He has higher academic qualifications and his book, whole not peer reviewed, seemed to fall broadly within his field of expertise. However, he lost any claim to 'authority' in my eyes because the scale of misrepresentation of his source was difficult to explain in terms of anything other than dishonesty. In trying to make up my mind about an expert, I look for 'coherence' or consistency (both internal and external - ie, with other sources), honest presentation of data, and where possible, consistency with personal experience of an issue. Personally, I think McIntyre has been much demonised. Interestingly, Monbiot in the recent Guardian debate described him as 'an information libertarian' rather than as a 'sceptic.' McIntyre's principal remit has been a critique of the statistics underpinning the hockey stick (which in fact lies well in his area of expertise). He can come across as worrying a bone to death (though this could be seen as dogged perseverance - pun intended). Of course, if I found out that he had done a Plimer with his sources, I would change my views very rapidly. It bears pointing out that much of what we rely on to form judgments in day to day life never goes through peer review - consider your daily newspaper or other media reporting. In the sciences, we use textbooks which again haven't been peer reviewed (though they are subject to non-peer reviewed reviews in the journals and praised or panned as the case may be). On this site, Spencer Weart is all to often cited as highly authoritative despite not being peer reviewed. I enjoyed Weart's introduction though I have to confess I found it slightly lightweight which is understandable given the book is intended primarily as an introduction for the layman (however, he certainly writes with coherence). -
scaddenp at 12:48 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Peer reviewed literature exists for very good reason and McIntyre doesnt prioritize publication for sure - but then if not, why take him seriously? Calling it a "fetish" is ridiculous - why do you think it exists? Look at all the rubbish on internet of all manner of subjects - the filter of review makes progress possible without having to wade through the cranks. And what do you think of practitioners that say one thing to their peers and another to unsophisticated audience (eg politicians) because they can? Publication also creates the chain the reference that is vital in science. So no, I dont take stuff seriously unless it published. If everyone else did same, then we wouldnt be wasting a lot of time blogs defending science from the charlatans practising on those without the expertise to make a good judgments. -
kdkd at 12:45 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
HR #12 "I'm pretty sure McIntyre et al do not prioritize publication" That's essentially because a lot this group's motivations appear political rather than scientific, which is why they end up in the mainstream (political) press rather than in the scientific press. When they do publish stuff (e.g. Carter's recent nonsense) it's always or at least very often rubbish in substandard journals like Energy and Environment. You can see this from McIntyre's point of view if you listen to the admittedly polite and softly spoken, but misinformation ridden statements at the Guardian's climategate debate. Plimer, Watts, Monkton et.al. are even worse. Another litmus test for this. Lindzen's recent writings have been misleading op-eds in the right wing press, not quality scientific reporting. -
KR at 12:43 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
HR - Speaking as someone who's both published and patented, pharmaceuticals and industrial applications are an interesting example. There patents and trade secrets are an important factor, with the production of information a secondary (if that) product. However, patents and trade secrets run up against the very important filter of "that which works". If it doesn't work, and provide a competitive advantage, the company won't bother with patents, and won't use it as a trade secret. And competitors won't try to copy it, beat it with another technique, etc.. In the production of information (the realm of science) the publication process is NOT a fetish. It's the product, the competitive arena! And if it's good science, if the publication provides useful, relevant information, it will get quoted, referred to, and used as the basis of additional work. That's the "that which works" test for science. Back to "What is an expert" - credentials are to a certain extent a license not to compete; if you have credentials you're assumed to have some familiarity with the subject, and people with credit you with some authority unless you prove otherwise. If you've contributed to the field, that adds to your authority. Even if you don't have credentials, if you contribute to the field using good technique (one of my issues with Monckton) then you can earn some authority. On the other hand, if you publish junk (Soon, Monckton, lots of others) - well, you've just discredited yourself. -
HumanityRules at 12:25 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
11.scaddenp I don't object to the "formal aademic process" I was just trying to ask what is an expert? You fetishise the publication process too much. It is a very important if not dominant means of disseminating scienctific ideas but it is not the only one. I'm pretty sure McIntyre et al do not prioritize publication. Saying their ideas aren't published so aren't valid is just a way of avoiding those ideas. Many strains of science do not develop ideas primarily through peer-review, pharmaceuticals for example. -
muoncounter at 12:23 PM on 23 July 20103 levels of cherry picking in a single argument
#29 "this variation gets larger closer to the poles, which fits well with that the differences between seasons is bigger there." The annual average CO2 concentrations are indeed comparable. However, Mauna Loa CO2 averages ~4ppm from spring (March-April-May) high to Sept-Oct-Nov low. In the arctic, that range expands to 15 ppm and is increasing. Annual arctic temperature range is about 30C; global average about 4C; Mauna Loa 9C. Sure is a nice fit. All a part of the polar amplification picture, no doubt. There was a recent thread on that subject here. -
scaddenp at 12:07 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
HR - your first example would indeed appear to case of policy guided by bad science but note the science did correct itself. Your second example is more like climate - unfounded claims published, examined and found wanting by main stream but STILL being pushed by cranks. Science worked as it should. As for McIntyre et al, well unwarranted aspersions cast on researchers of integrity are what raise ire. If you have some science to push, then publish it. You object to this "formal academic process"? Well it has evolved for good reasons and we will stick it. As for experts, well I am happy for the definition of those who made worthy publications in the field as a good definition. I wouldnt hold much to opinion of a paleoclimatologist on vaccines for instance. Of course, if they used their analytical techniques to make meaningful and published contributions into vaccines, then well maybe, but probably only by in the area of methodology unless they had really gone deep into it. -
robert test at 12:06 PM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
I think you’re leaving out a key concept: judgment—or rather good judgment. An experienced and well-trained musician has it. An experienced and well-trained pilot, comedian, scientist, philosopher, or home-builder has it – for those areas where she is experienced and trained. There are no rules or formulae for making most decisions. You don’t literally “weigh” the evidence for and against a proposition or theory. You have to use judgment. Those with training and experience generally have better judgment than those without it. It would be nice if the evidence were overwhelming on one side or the other. In the real world we are frequently required to make decisions when we don't have overwhelming evidence one way or the other. And when we don't have a simple logical formula for determining what to believe. In these situations, it would be wise to rely on those with good judgment -- i.e., experience and knowledge. -
HumanityRules at 11:50 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Who counts as an expert? And who decides who is an expert? Should paleoclimatologists be lstened to on any other subject? One could argue Steve McIntyre or even Monckton has been researching and banging on about their respective climate science interests that they have developed some level of expertise. Because they haven't gone down a formal academic process does not necessarily invalidate that experience. Is an earth science graduate with 5 years postgraduate experience more of an an expert? It's worth also considering a recent example when deferring to scientific experts went horribly wrong. The UK in the late 1980's probably saw the beginning of the recent hysteria around paedophilia. In those days a band of medical experts believed that had the tests that could definitively show that children had been sexually abused. These individuals published their work, disseminated their ideas and became the 'experts' to advise the police, social services, politicians and the courts. They pronounced on court cases and persided over the break up of families and jailing of parents. This period culminated in instances such as the Cleveland Child Sex Scandal and the final exposure of the 'expert' as wrong. It also worth considering the moral dimension of this example as well. Early critics of the experts were often portrayed as defenders of paedophiles when trying to question the experts. In this case a heady mix of expert authority and moral authority lead to some controversial scientific finding becoming unquestioned dogma with disastrous consequences. Another bad example of deferring to experts in the 'when science meets politics' arena might be MMR vaccine and autism controversy In general I have no problem deferring to expertise in science, I do it on a daily basis. Unfortunately climate science is no longer just science. When science collides with politics and social policy I think it's very much necessary to do plenty of questioning. -
scaddenp at 11:19 AM on 23 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
johnD - you water vapour graphs do puzzle me. It took me an age to find the data at ISCCP but I am at a loss I admit. It goes against the precipatable water vapour trends. Tempting to ask someone from Goddard to comment. -
Philippe Chantreau at 10:57 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Watts is not qualifed to review the Menne paper or anything with somewhat advanced maths. He finds averaging percentages a good enough procedure to keep a post in it on his site. WUWT is the place where carbonic snow on Earth had to be debated as a serious possibility. The "threat and coercion" BS is total bunk too. If it was really happening (which it isn't), how could you find in the litterature such stinkers as G&T or Carter et al, whose lack of quality alone is ground for rejection? As for the Soon/Baliunas thing, it led to the resignation in protest of most of the editorial board, including Von Storch, who is a rather independent thinking guy. The way that this is spun around by the deception artists in the denialosphere would be amusing if it didn't sway so many people. I listed a few of the real threats and attempts at coercion out there. WUWT's outing of scientists' places of work and incitation to harass them is a prime example. McIntyre's abuse of FOI requests is equally shameful. -
dhogaza at 10:53 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
"Watt's full list of issues with how Menne used his data, sounds like cherry picking to me." Wrong fruit - I think you meant sour grapes ... -
dhogaza at 10:52 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
"The problem, however, is that the guy who collected the data (Watts) wasn't invited to "peer review" the paper. Which is the normal Peer Review process. " Splurf ... TruthSeeker, if I were drinking coffee when reading your post, you'd owe me a keyboard. There's no polite way to say this: you don't know what you're talking about. And chastising journal editors for publishing crap is perfectly acceptable, as is boycotting journals that publish crap. Because scientists publishing in a journal have their careers judged in large part by their publication record, and if a journal they publish in starts getting a reputation for publishing crap, their reputation will to some degree sink along with the journals. So if "Nature" or "Science" started publishing "scholarly" papers supporting astrology or homeopathy, legit science would react violently against the editorial staff for allowing such crap into the journals' pages. And rightly so. -
Paul W at 10:47 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Graham, I liked your article. As a further metaphor the aviation industry has a use for the word authority. The control surfaces such as rudders and elevators have authority in normal flight. Loss of authority due to turbulence or fault has the plane begin to loose control. The authority of science comes from it's accuracy of measurement and external validation of theories. Just as the aviation meaning has the connection with the real world so does the world of science. I have two areas of training first as a commercial scientist (R & D chemist) and as a hobby the art of counselling. This second area has the acceptance of equality. The use of unconditional respect as a tool. This is for the purpose of allowing the counselling client the safety and connection to feel and work through all sorts of painful emotions that once they are worked through allow the client to resume flexible intelligent interaction with the real world. (That is the aim!) Both are humbling endeavours. Logic applies to both. The place of the real world is also common but with counselling great departures from the real world are allowed as a temporary refuge only. The aim is to regain real functioning. Currently we have a political issue given solid climate science of AGW where policies based on science need to be adopted. A western world where fossil fuels have the centre piece in real power production. A developing world following and in some ways leading. Politics is about power and what appears to be real. Appearance is everything as a tool to get political power. At times of great change very large numbers of people go through periods of great pain. The past and all sorts of emotions and un-realities take sway in many minds. The coming period of mess from climate change will be over decades at the least! There is a kind of personal authority of a calm logical mind, warm connection with others, and a commitment to do what is right no matter what level of wild emotions and illusory claims are made that is needed for this coming period. Our scientists and activists will need to draw on this last point the personal authority of "being seen to be sorted" as the tussle for political power which is the main issue of "the day" plays out. The political leaders just follow what appears to be the most sensible way forward. -
Sean A at 10:43 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Adrianvance, you'll have a hard time explaining transitions between glacial and interglacial climates without CO2 being a major factor. Small percentage: red herring, chicanery, contrivance, knavery. Excellent post by the way. And there's another authority that can't be argued with: nature. Unless humanity decides to grow up and learn this lesson, nature is going to kick our collective arse. -
Joe Blog at 10:42 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Human nature is a fascinating subject all of its own.... But im not so sure i would blindly trust a politician, just because he has experience/authority. Or for that matter any other demographic, we are a very social animal, and are prone to conforming to group behaviors in all things...as can be clearly seen with an extremely rudimentary study of history... any era, and just about any group. There is nothing wrong with critical thinking, i encourage it in my children. Question everything. Understand the how and why. Then decide for yourself your own view... There are dangers in blindly following the herd. Our history is full of examples of it. And we are still the same little funny monkeys we have always been. Believe the evidence, not the man. -
actually thoughtful at 10:41 AM on 23 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
61 - Truth Seeker. Thank you for your kind words (#56). To make an effective case using the 97% of the carbon cycle that is in balance, and not man-caused, you would also have to explain away the carbon isotope ratios that (so far) are only explained by fossil carbon, the depletion of O2 that is (so far) only explained by burning fossil carbon. If you can do that -you will have changed the science, and folks that know a lot more than me will have some questions. The problem the skeptics of AGW have is the theory doesn't just explain the rising temperatures, it also explains nighttime warming more than day, the arctic warming faster than mid-latitudes, the oceans rising and quite a few other phenomena. Your new theory should also explain why the man-made CO2 ISN'T warming the earth. I honestly think it is an insurmountable challenge, thus my postings in support of AGW (all the while understanding a few things are not perfectly explained). -
Jeff Freymueller at 10:26 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
TruthSeeker said: "The problem, however, is that the guy who collected the data (Watts) wasn't invited to "peer review" the paper. Which is the normal Peer Review process." No, it is not the normal peer review process. Reviewers need to be knowledgeable in the field, but there is not and has never been a requirement that whoever collected some data or made some classification of data/stations/whatever must be a reviewer of any paper that uses it. In fact, that is rarely the case, and repeating this claim will not make it true. Watts is welcome to submit a comment on Menne et al., and if he is able to point out substantive errors in Menne et al., then I'm sure it would be published. But I agree with KR (#83 and #86), he simply hasn't done it or even come close. -
Rob Honeycutt at 09:56 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
adelady... Actually, I think the scientific method has a pretty good rule book and has ways of keeping score. This is how we have accomplished as much as we have as a species in the past few hundred years. The problem now is there are elements who don't like how the score is turning out and they want to either rig the game or change how the game is played or try to reinterpret the score of the game through the media. If you look at peer reviewed, published science on climate the score is about 3000 to 7 (roughly). But the losing team is managing to convince the general public that the score is wrong and the game is wrong. And I believe they've been fairly successful at this because science is a game where the general public doesn't fully understand the nature of the rules. -
KR at 09:50 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
TruthSeeker - I read it. There's no analysis on Watt's part, just copies of other peoples graphs, complaints about 'station adjustments', and his personal issues with how Menne obtained the data. I still await a Watt's paper with actual analysis of temperature records. If he can show a problem based on station siting, or the UHI effect, more power to him. In the meantime, since the GISS data agrees with two different satellite data sets that have completely independent calibrations, and some independent surface records (can't find the link right now, but it involved a lot more data stations than GISS...), I believe the burden of proof is on Watts. -
MattJ at 09:48 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Graham's thinking on authority is more insightful than that of the teenage rebel (he admits he once was). But not by much. Not by enough. Indeed: most conspicuous in the failure of his thinking is the false dichotomy between the authority with which he now speaks about music and musicianship, and the parental authority kids hate when their parents tell them to go to bed. How did he miss his own error here? His own example of his father making dogmatic statements to him shows there is no such division. After all, when a parent tells their kid to go to bed by such and such time or take a bath, that decision too is based on experience: kids need to go to bed earlier than they want, or they don't get enough sleep, and end up cranky the next day; they need hygiene, which need they generally never appreciate, not even after its neglect leads them to serious skin diseases. There is some difference between scientific authority and other forms, but Graham's article does not head us in the right direction to figure out what it is. However, it does remind me of a conclusion I have been groping towards for some years now: that the 'skeptics' whether those who deny evolution or those who deny global warming, or even those who fantasize of disproving Einstein's Relativity have all confused "scientific authority" for the second kind Graham mischaracterizes. That is, rather than recognize that scientific authority is based on people doing their homework, so that their opinion really IS worthy of authority and respect, the skeptics turn up their noses and stamp their feet shouting 'no' just like the little kid who doesn't want to take a bath when his parent tells him he must. Unlike the little kid, they have an amazing variety of ways to hide the fact that this is what they are doing, stealing the honorable label of 'skeptic' and pretending that they are the only true scientists, avoiding debate, shouting down the real science... The real cause of the near end of civilization mediated by global warming is not the proximate cause, the recklessly excess carbon, but the fact that we have surrendered the major decisions in running the world to such ill-bred brats. -
johnd at 09:47 AM on 23 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
TruthSeeker at 09:22 AM, this article from NASA Earth Observatory may be of interest to you. Uncertainties in Solar Measurements Despite all that scientists have learned about solar irradiance over the past few decades, they are still a long way from forecasting changes in the solar cycles or incorporating these changes into climate models. -
miekol at 09:46 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Blooming marvelous, for a moment I thought I was reading the word's Ayn Rand's John Galt might have written in "Atlas Shrugged." I read all of John's comment "The nature of authority," I thought it excellent. However I wondered whether or not John has read Professor Ian Plimer's book. Michael on the Gold Coast -
omnologos at 09:37 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
Despite being part of what "we are to be clear about", there is no explanation about what "deference" entails? Without that, it is going to be hard to discuss about the practical meaning and consequences of "scientific authority". -
scaddenp at 09:37 AM on 23 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
'My issue isn't the math that about how much man emitts, rather I have a problem with it being the only thing we do measure." actually I agree that accounting only shows you that you have order of magnitude right. With the isotope data, it also tells you how much is being absorbed. However, you cant duck the isotope evidence. Fossil fuels CO2 is different isotope signature from other sources. This is evidence that CO2 is from emissions and not other sources. Things like the corals that John mention provide multiple checks on these calculations. There is no reasonable way to presume CO2 in atmosphere is not from our emissions. -
KR at 09:36 AM on 23 July 2010Models are unreliable
Pete Ridley - reading Hansen et al 2006 is quite clear; Hansen's most likely scenario (scenario B), with a particular CO2 increase plugged in, actually predicted temperatures over the last 22 years quite well. If you take Hansen's model and put in the actual CO2 numbers (5-10% less than his scenario) his model is even more accurate. This is discussed in the paper in the section labeled Early Climate Change Predictions, pages 1-3 of the PDF. It's a major part of the paper! The quality of a model lies in whether it makes correct predictions based on various inputs (Given 'A', you will get 'B'). His scenarios covered a range of different inputs (CO2 production), and the the prediction given closely matches the real-world result of that range of CO2 numbers. You can't ask for much more - it's a decent model, and predicts the correct result given a particular set of our actions, even at it's 1988 level of simplicity. That's what a good model does! -
adelady at 09:32 AM on 23 July 2010The nature of authority
It's a shame it has to be intellectual, where people have to acknowledge others' superior expertise. It would be so much easier if it were more like tennis or basketball. The scores tell the world who won each match. The rankings show who's won the most matches. -
scaddenp at 09:30 AM on 23 July 2010Models are unreliable
Pete, I do however have more than a passing acquaintance with this type of physical modelling. You ask for evidence of models predictive skill. You are pointed at comparisons between models prediction and actual data. I dont know what other kind of evidence you could mean. Hansen (and everybody else) cant predict what future CO2 emissions will be so of course he works with scenarios. "If you emit this, you will get this climate". You verify by comparing actual forcings (not just emissions but volcanoes, solar etc), versus the models prediction for the scenario that closest matches these forcings. Please also note that you need to distinguish between people giving you "opinions" versus people giving you verifiable facts. The source of facts is important, not the person giving it to you. -
TruthSeeker at 09:29 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
KR #84 "Watt seriously unless he does some numeric analysis to demonstrate his point." He does in the link I provided, you should read it. -
TruthSeeker at 09:27 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
KR #84 Thanks for the link, and I see that some of Watt's statements raise criticism and appear to be proven false. That, however, doesn't mean he is wrong about the data he collected. I don't see how his comments about his analysis of his own data are anecdotal (really, you can disagree with it but its not anecdotal). He should have been part of the Menne peer review team, and to exclude him is a corruption of the Peer Review process. I find it Hypocritical that Soon-Baliunas is considered "nonsense" based on how they used a data set contrary to the advice of the data generator, while Menne is given a pass for the same offense. Its self serving and stinks of corruption. -
TruthSeeker at 09:22 AM on 23 July 2010Rebutting skeptic arguments in a single line
KR #57 My issue isn't the math that about how much man emitts, rather I have a problem with it being the only thing we do measure. We don't measure any of the other variables, and a less than 10% swing in any of them could cause the same increase. Until you measure and record all the moving parts, you cannot exclude them from making contributions. It is fallacious to do so. -
KR at 09:05 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
TruthSeeker - there's a thread here on just that topic, Watt and Menne 2010. You might find that interesting. I personally can't take Watt seriously unless he does some numeric analysis to demonstrate his point. I eagerly await a paper from him - if it appears. Until then it's anecdotes versus statistics, and I put more weight on actual statistics. -
TruthSeeker at 08:56 AM on 23 July 2010What do you get when you put 100 climate scientists in a room?
Watt's full list of issues with how Menne used his data, sounds like cherry picking to me. And excluding Watts from the Peer Reveiw process stinks of corruption. Watts
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