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RedBaron at 22:57 PM on 18 March 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
I wrote a rather long detailed explanation why this rebuttal is flawed. But unfortunately it never posted.
I don't know why? Maybe it was too long?
Anyway the short version is this. Oxic soils under grasslands are net sinks not sources.
What reaction can you do to remove methane?
So that part is completely flawed and actually improving and expanding grasslands would help lower methane, not increase it.
The other mistake made here is in not understanding the difference between the catabolic processes of decay in the O-horizon of the soil profile and the anabolic processes of soil building in the A and B horizons of the soil profile.
One is biomass and primarily a function of saprophytic fungi (SF) vs the other which is the liquid carbon pathway of root exudates and glomalin and primarily a function of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi (AMF).
This makes the Roth C model not applicable at all. It simply doesn't apply in this case. It is a very good model for biomass decay, but it and any other biomass decay model are all flawed when trying to use them for the LCP.
Here is evidence from the past of this ecosystem function:
Cenozoic Expansion of Grasslands and Climatic Cooling
Gregory J. Retallack doi: 10.1086/320791
And here is a review of how we can apply the paleo record of this ecosystem function to modern times and near future AGW mitigation.
Global Cooling by Grassland Soils of the Geological Past and Near Future
Gregory J. Retallack doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-050212-124001
And here is empirical evidence of carbon sequestration rates in the field under various agricultural techniques and systems. A careful examination of the evidence with an understanding of how the Liquid Carbon Pathway functions makes it very clear which systems use the LCP and why the difference in rates seen. It also confirms that the average sequestration rate of ~5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr holds true in environments tested around the world.
Conservation practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Jorge A. Delgado, Peter M. Groffman, Mark A. Nearing, Tom Goddard, Don Reicosky, Rattan Lal, Newell R. Kitchen, Charles W. Rice, Dan Towery, and Paul Salon doi:10.2489/jswc.66.4.118A
Managing soil carbon for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Mediterranean cropping systems: A meta-analysis
Eduardo Aguilera, Luis Lassaletta, Andreas Gattinger, Benjamín S.Gimeno doi:10.1016/j.agee.2013.02.003
Enhanced top soil carbon stocks under organic farming
Andreas Gattinger, Adrian Muller, Matthias Haeni, Colin Skinner, Andreas Fliessbach, Nina Buchmann, Paul Mäder, Matthias Stolze, Pete Smith, Nadia El-Hage Scialabba, and Urs Niggli doi/10.1073/pnas.1209429109
Managing Soils and Ecosystems for Mitigating Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions and Advancing Global Food Security
Rattan Lal doi: 10.1525/bio.2010.60.9.8
The role of ruminants in reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint in North America
W.R. Teague, S. Apfelbaum, R. Lal, U.P. Kreuter, J. Rowntree, C.A. Davies, R. Conser, M. Rasmussen, J. Hatfield, T. Wang, F. Wang, and P. Byc doi:10.2489/jswc.71.2.156
Grazing management impacts on vegetation, soil biota and soil chemical, physical and hydrological properties in tall grass prairie
W.R.Teague, S.L.Dowhower, S.A.Baker, N.Haile, P.B.DeLaune, D.M.Conover doi:/10.1016/j.agee.2011.03.009
Please note that all of these have published results higher than this so called rebuttal claims is impossible. That's measured results. So right there is enough to show this rebuttal is empirically wrong.
Of course they all show other measured results much lower too. And those also have strong reasons why.
If they are primarily using biomass decay, then the carbon sequestration is positive but much smaller than when the primary biological pathway is the LCP. So there is your empirical evidence and also your explanation why.
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RedBaron at 20:40 PM on 18 March 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
"They are at risk of completely drying out because of increasing temperatures and more at risk to the detrimental effect of mismanaged grazing (Lal, 2004).This makes it unreasonable to apply Holistic Management to such dry areas, where the intense grazing would no doubt leave soils further damaged."
This is a false demostrably illogical statement. Land that has mismanaged grazing neither proves nor disproves properly managed grazing. It's ridiculous to claim there is no doubt that even using Holistic management would result in the same outcome as mismanaged grazing. It's so ridiculous a statement I shouldn't even need to refute it. But I can easily.
Effect of grazing on soil-water content in semiarid rangelands of southeast Idaho
As can be seen clearly, Holistic planned grazing significantly increases water content of soils over mismanaged grazing and critically even shows improvement over the control with no grazing at all!
Most of the rest of that section has nothing to do with Holistic planned grazing and only describes yet again demostrably mismanaged grazing. We can agree that overgrazing and undergrazing both result in desertification and the release of carbon rather than the sequestration of carbon. Ironically the main reason for the term "holistic" comes from a series of management techniques designed to prevent these sorts of mistakes from happening by closely monitoring and proactive adaptation. Holistic management provides a management framework that dramatically helps prevent these negative results from happening. Simply proving that the land can easily be mismanaged really is not a rebutal of Savory at all. It's more a critique of the status quo Savory is trying to change.
Methane is my pet peeve here. I have already discussed this in some detail here. Most of the issue is Natural gas leaks and clathrates, not cows at all. But I would agree that removing the livestock from grazing and instead using feedlots to fatten them also has cause some of the problem.
See upland oxic soils is the only biome on the planet that is a net sink for methane primarily due to the action of methanotrophes. Part of maintaining a healthy population of methanotrophes is indeed proper animal impact. Rather than repeat this yet again, I wrote a quora answer off thread you can use as a reference as to why.
What reaction can you do to remove methane?
So once again it is mismanagement of the land that does have some negative impact, and once again Savory's methods are designed to reduce and/or eliminate these sorts of management mistakes. This is once again not a criticism of Holistic planned grazing, but rather a critique of mismanaged livestock. I would agree that this is part of the problem, but the conclusion of this article is one huge logic fallacy. Just because mismanaged land and livestock is indeed a problem, does not say anything at all about what Savory proposes, nor does it refute the 10's of millions of acres already showing quantifiable improvement due to following his work. That does indeed include published results too by the way.
Once again, this time regarding soil carbon, we see marked improvement over mismanaged grazing of several sorts, and critically an improvement over the control of no animals at all.
"Because of the complex nature of carbon storage in soils, increasing global temperature, risk of desertification and methane emissions from livestock, it is unlikely that Holistic Management, or any management technique, can reverse climate change."
I would agree with that. It's possible but very unlikely. Instead we need to do both fossil fuel reductions and changing agricultural systems both. There is no single silver bullet. And just because fossil fuel reductions is not enough alone, and soil sequestration also probably wouldn't be enough alone, doesn't mean we freeze up and do nothing. It means we must do both! Again with the logic flaws. Astonishing really.
"Studies of several grazing techniques and carbon storage have produced no ground-breaking results to suggest that Savory’s idea is doable."
This is a demonstrably false statement actually. In fact Savory won the Buckminster Fuller award for proving the breakthrough in rather dramatic fashion. Not to mention repeatability on every continent and the aformentioned 10's of millions of acres already showing dramatic improvement. So this part of the conclusion actually borders on an outright lie.
"With increasing temperature, the ability of soil to store carbon will decrease"
Exactly true. And in fact part of the monitoring of Holistic management involves making sure soil temps stay low so they stop losing carbon and water both. So this part of the conclusion yet again can not be assigned to holistic management, but rather mismanagement. The logic flaws continue.
"and grazing will likely speed up the process of desertification. "
Again the logic flaw. Is this mismanaged grazing? Then the statement is true. Is this properly managed grazing? Then demostrably false. See above.
"Finally, methane emissions from cattle are currently too high, and their effect on global warming cannot be ignored."
Actually methane emissions mean nothing. this is as false as the merchant of doubt argument regarding CO2 emissions from animals. see argument # 34 for more information. When calculating these, of which methane is but a small part, the entire biological cycle must be considered, not just emissions. Thus it is the net that matters not gross emissions like when we deal with fossil fuels including fossil methane.
"Adding more livestock to the planet will not help this."
Alone no. Of course not. The thing that mitigates AGW is increasing our depleted biological systems, and livestock can indeed be a tool for doing that, as Savory so amazingly proved on many millions of acres across the globe. Mismanaged livestock are part of the problem now. Not nearly as big a part as the plow and agrochemicals, but a part yes. Especially when the plow and agrochemicals are used to raise grains for cows and sheep, which is ridiculous mismanagement even worse than mismanaged grazing. So we can easily start there and stop this wasteful use of land to grow excess grains. That will free up so much land we indeed might need to uncrease either livestock or wild herbivores just to keep it all pruned properly. To avoid it going to desert like so much is already doing now. However, that is determined later by how much arable land we can take out of production and rest. Got the horse before the cart on that one.
“The number one public enemy is the cow. But the number one tool that can save mankind is the cow. We need every cow we can get back out on the range. It is almost criminal to have them in feedlots which are inhumane, antisocial, and environmentally and economically unsound.” Allan Savory
In total this basic rebuttal is not very convincing at all. I will work on the advanced rebuttal next to see if it is any better.
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citizenschallenge at 16:07 PM on 18 March 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11
John, thanks for the heads up, Great example of the point I keep trying to make. ;- )
Edited by Scott Johnson, Climate Feedback, Mar 8, 2019
{hat tip to skepticalscience.com - https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2019/03/climatefeedbackorg-factcheck-fails.html}
CLAIM
"The science is clear, climate change is making extreme weather events, including tornadoes, worse.” SOURCE: Bernie Sanders, Facebook, 4 March 2019
ClimateFeedback.org's fact checking verdict was misleading.
Overstates scientific confidence: Research clearly shows that certain types of weather extremes are increasing as a result of climate change, but it is not clear how tornadoes are responding to a warming climate.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ClimateFeedback misses the point.It’s not about tornadoes and score keeping, it’s about learning to appreciate how our climate engine operates.
Take back the narrative !
Research clearly shows us that our global heat and moisture distribution engine has accumulated a degree Centigrade worth of extra heat since the advent of the steam engine.
Weather's job is to circulate this heat (and moisture) from the broiling equator to the poles.
This warming also increases the moisture holding capacity of air.
Physics tells us this added energy gets circulated throughout the global weather system.
This extra heat is now available to be released through various destructive forms, not limited to tornadoes, consider destructive macrobursts, microbursts, downbursts, derechos, bomb cyclones, hurricanes and others.
It doesn’t much matter which particular climatological conditions come together, the point is when they do, they now have increasingly more energy, heat and moisture available, meaning more intense events must to be expected.
It’s elementary. It's physics. It's certain as people can be about anything.
It’s about establishing an appreciation for what’s happening within our global heat and moisture distribution engine. Well that and learning to appreciate the fragility of the biosphere upon who's health we all depend on for everything.
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scaddenp at 13:44 PM on 18 March 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11
If the only thing we used petroleum for was manufacture of plastics, then CO2 emissions from petroleum would not be much of an issue. On the other hand, if they go onto choose frequent flying, petrol SUVs, and coal-based electricity, then you could call them hypocrites.
However, individual action only goes so far, and especially if it is only inacted by a relative few. Government action is needed deal with the main problems:
- transition away from coal and gas for electricity (priority no 1 for most countries and the biggest way to make a difference)
- transition away from petroleum-based transport
If you can solve these quickly without government intervention, then we are all ears. In my opionion, cynism and name-calling dont do much.
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nigelj at 13:35 PM on 18 March 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Related research from last year: The vast reservoir of carbon stored beneath our feet is entering Earth's atmosphere at an increasing rate, most likely as a result of warming temperatures, suggest observations collected from a variety of the Earth's many ecosystems.
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JWRebel at 13:21 PM on 18 March 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Unaddressed is the interaction between climate and desertification, as in the Amazon where reevaporation infuences the climate futher inland. So it's not just that the dry climate makes the desert, but destroying grassland and forest can also lead to a drier climate. Not saying the critique is not right, just that it seems the interplay should be mentioned.
Also, there seems to be some discussion about where the increased methane is coming from, so the attribution to cattle for meat has some margin of uncertainty.
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nigelj at 12:50 PM on 18 March 2019Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change
Related research from last year : The vast reservoir of carbon stored beneath our feet is entering Earth's atmosphere at an increasing rate, most likely as a result of warming temperatures, suggest observations collected from a variety of the Earth's many ecosystems.
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DrC at 06:59 AM on 18 March 2019Earth’s oceans are routinely breaking heat records
Not really. I did a lot of background reading over the last two days, and this issue is far from settled. The CO2 dissolved both as gas and bicarbonate do act as a buffer to atmospheric CO2, but also the deeper ocean layers contain higher concentrations and occasionally fume CO2, especially when the surface winds are in play. Furthermore, there is very little data from the Southern Hemisphere oceans during the colder weather, because of he harshness of the conditions for those vessels that collect and analyze ocean gas samples for the last 3 decades. The dynamic is much more complicated and the simplifications are just inadequate to the data.
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graymoment1 at 06:46 AM on 18 March 2019Skeptical Science now an Android app
Is anyone working on developing a new version of this software? Is it a funding issue? How many other readers out there would gladly donate for an updated Android app? I would. After all, 80+% of all mobile phones run on Android.
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ThinkingMan at 03:26 AM on 18 March 2019The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
Rather than debate again & again the hiatus or slower warming issue, I respectfully suggest researching & discussing a related issue. Has anthropogenic warming offset natural cooling forces since 2000 or so?
The annual average global temperature has NOT trended downwards since 2000, 2015 or some year in between. EVERYONE concedes this point. One might reasonably expect a downwards trend since then because of a routine, recurring, widely acknowledged 60-80 temperature cycle. The cycle's most recent warming phase started 1970-1975, or so. The cooling phase should have started 30-40 years later, which would place the start date between 2000 & 2015.
So, why has the cooling phase NOT made an appearance? The answer should profoundly influence expectations for climate.
Moderator Response:[PS] I am not aware of any scientific basis for a 60-80 cycle though I aware of pseudo-skeptic pundits pushing the idea. Can you please provide references to support this "widely acknowledged" cycle? (especially interested to know where in the natural world, this extra energy is supposed to come from).
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Eclectic at 14:54 PM on 17 March 2019Welcome to Skeptical Science
Gribble @53 ,
you refer to a paper by Nikolov & Zeller (2016). Essentially, N & Z have performed a "curve-fitting exercise", and have not used basic physics. Their ideas are pseudo-science.
Similar ideas were put forward by Gerlich & Tscheuschner ["G &T"] about a decade ago, and were shot down in flames. [Refer to discussion at "Science of Doom" and elsewhere.] Also check SkS's Most Used Climate Myths number #63 , accessed via top left corner of this page (mostly about G & T , see "intermediate version" with well over a 1000 comments, though all prior to 2015, and largely concerning thermodynamic laws ~ a fertile area of misunderstanding, especially by people who repeatedly confuse semantics with physics).
You should also note some publication of ideas by "Volokin & ReLlez" [= Nikolov and Zeller spelt backwards].
(B) Is there an inverse relationship between solar activity and [global] warming? The short answer is: No .
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gribble.eric3 at 13:32 PM on 17 March 2019Welcome to Skeptical Science
I have added a link to a paper that states that there is an inverse relationship between solar activity and warming. Reduced activity causes atmospheric shrinking and the increased density causes warming (Just like the coolant circulating around in your refrigerator). Attached is the link.
https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/New-Insights-on-the-Physical-Nature-of-the-Atmospheric-Greenhouse-Effect-Deduced-from-an-Empirical-Planetary-Temperature-Model.pdf
Has this paper been adequately rebutted. If the paper has substance the inverse relationship suggested here between solar activity and warming would explain why no correlation has been observed.
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jef12506 at 12:06 PM on 17 March 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11
Just wait until those kids learn the truth. Unfortunately there are still many layers of lies and hopeium yet to be thrown at them before the truth comes out.
We need to stop all of it and just make sure everyone is ok, help them through what is coming, work together, mutual aid.
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John Hartz at 05:52 AM on 16 March 2019CO2 is plant food
@ remmons 31:
The NASA article that you reference was published on April 26, 2016. It has been susequently updated by the following article:
Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows, NASA, Feb 11, 2019
The concluding/summary paragraphs of the update article:
The researchers point out that the gain in greenness seen around the world and dominated by India and China does not offset the damage from loss of natural vegetation in tropical regions, such as Brazil and Indonesia. The consequences for sustainability and biodiversity in those ecosystems remain.
Overall, Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there’s a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 70s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss wasn’t good; in the 90s, people realized it; and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.”
This research was published online, Feb. 11, 2019, in the journal Nature Sustainability.
The moral of the story: Science is a continuous process.
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remmons at 04:44 AM on 16 March 2019CO2 is plant food
According to NASA, the earth is greening, and it is 70% due to anthropogenic CO2.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth
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Nick Palmer at 23:45 PM on 15 March 2019Hopes for our climate future
nigelj@6
"At the very least we need a semi market based mechanism like carbon taxes or cap and trade"
As a minimum. The main problem with the version of the free market we have, and which got exponentially worse since the international deregulation in the 80s, is that it does not really fit the the parameters for what basic economics says is necessary for a free market to run efficiently and safely - full and open knowledge of all aspects of it for all participants and, importantly, costs of doing business should end up on the accountants' bottom lines.Externalities - the cost of avoiding acid rain, polluted rivers, sickened people, altered climate, degraded land and habitat etc. should be accounted for as a cost of doing business. Carbon taxes would be a big start. With this 'environmental economics', the awesome power of the free market to achieve things and supply goods and services would be unleashed. Those goods and services which were cleaner and greener and/or less damaging would become the same price or less than the 'dirty versions' and the great mass of the public would vote with their wallets. 'Bad' products, and the corporations that made them would be less profitable, investment in them would wither away.
Doing it this way means virtually no environmental legislation, which so many kickback against, would be required
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_economics -
nigelj at 16:33 PM on 15 March 2019Hopes for our climate future
Neoliberalism.
Neoliberalism has huge implications for the climate issue. Some quick background. According to Wikipedia : "Neoliberalism or neo-liberalism[1] is the 20th-century resurgence of 19th-century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism and free market capitalism.[2]:7[3] Those ideas include economic liberalization policies such as privatization, austerity, deregulation, free trade[4] and reductions in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy and society.[12] .....Modern advocates of free market policies avoid the term "neoliberal"[20] and some scholars have described the term as meaning different things to different people[21][22] as neoliberalism "mutated" into geopolitically distinct hybrids as it travelled around the world.[5] As such, neoliberalism shares many attributes with other concepts that have contested meanings, including democracy.[23]"
It's obvious to me that neoliberalism is a reaction against keynsian policies of the 1970's of protectionist trade and extensive state ownership going into industry and banking.
Free trade is pretty much embraced by almost everyone in developed countries, left and right alike. The battle ground is over how far privatisation should go into core infrastructure and how much we should deregulate. I think only the fanatics and the irrational would think everything should be privatised and deregulated. This seems as ridiculous and irrational as communists thinking the state should run everything. Neoliberalism is tiresome like all ideologies.
It's particularly frustrating because environmental problems are hard to solve with purely market based mechanism's such as "self regulation" (does that ever actually work?). At the very least we need a semi market based mechanism like carbon taxes or cap and trade (I prefer the former fwiw its more transparent).
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PBRoger at 07:25 AM on 15 March 2019CO2 lags temperature
Good discussion.
The link "The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming by Claude Lorius (co-authored by James Hansen"
is broken. It's just been moved, not removed. It is now athttps://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/lo03000u.html
Moderator Response:[PS] Thanks very much for that. Link updated.
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SirCharles at 06:05 AM on 15 March 2019Hopes for our climate future
"we don't have to worry about global warming"???
WTF
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:48 AM on 15 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
Eclectic,
Rereading your comment @53, I understand that you may have clarified the goal posts regarding your initial comment @45 (which only asked for Prominent names incorrectly used to gain credibility). You may be seeking 'very frequently used Prominent names'.
I agree that Darwin is not frequently used, though there actually are cases where Darwin has been abused by climate science denial promoters like Monckton (as the DeSmogBlog item I provided a link to showed).
What I see related to Darwin that is frequently abused (by the likes of Monckton) are the many suggestions that it is acceptable for current day people to not give up some of their developed perceptions of prosperity and comfort just to reduce the harm done to future generations because 'those future generations will be able to adapt, the incorrect Darwin link'.
Examples of this incorrect link to Darwin are the economic claims that the artificial developed perceptions of wealth, prosperity, or reduction of poverty that are the result of the unsustainable and harmful burning of fossil fuels will somehow be sustained into the future (perceived positive results of unsustainable harmful behaviour are very unlikely to be sustained positives in the future).
Similarly incorrect are the related claims that the perceptions of loss of status by portions of the current generation if 'they had to adapt' to the reality of the unacceptability of harming the future generations must over-rule the fundamental understanding of the need to minimize the required 'adaptation to the harmful future consequences of the current generation dragging its feet about correcting what has developed (foot dragging because they - collectively - do not want to correct their incorrectly developed perceptions, they want to allow everyone to continue pursuing 'their happiness any way they have developed a liking for'.
Efforts to improve the awareness, understanding and acceptance of climate science cannot be separated from the related need for increased acceptance of the need to achieve and improve on all of the Sustainable Development Goals (not just the minimization of climate change harm), which cannot be separated from the related reality that some people will have to lose developed perceptions of status relative to others (not just the coal barons). That is a lot of incorrect developed popularity and profitability to over-come, but the future of humanity needs the corrections to be done, and be done by the current generation because they are the only ones doing anything and everything, including creating the future for humanity through their actions (or lack of correction).
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jef12506 at 00:59 AM on 15 March 2019Hopes for our climate future
Every example where mankind has destroyed an environment, from the ocean to the mountains, and then completely left it alone...I mean completely, those environments eventually recover in the most amazing ways. Granted this example does not happen often but I know of many.
What WE need to do to "solve" the destruction of the biosphere due to human waste stream/pollution is to STOP! Toughest thing ever asked of all humanity.
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Nick Palmer at 23:00 PM on 14 March 2019Hopes for our climate future
I've just posted this on the video comments on YouTube.
"This is a lovely vision of a version of utopia but just 'fixing' climate change on its own is a gigantic task on its own, let alone all the other things on this wish list. It's true that some of what is planned to mitigate and reduce future emissions could help some of the desired effects to come about, but I do see a problem. I'm a seasoned climate science denialism fighter and I can tell you that the most sophisticated and effective propaganda these days comes not from fossil fuel interests, as many environmentalists still believe, but from those who are wedded to far right-wing laissez-faire freemarket ideologies, and those who espouse simplistic neo-liberal economics. Much of the motivation behind a lot of high profile denialism comes from those who believe so strongly in their political view of the world that they regard it as justified to spread miseading and deceptive denialist propaganda, that they secretly know (I have come to this conclusion after many years of engaging with these types) has been debunked a thousand times. They do this because it has a proven ability to sway the minds of the voting layman public. The propagandists have a deep seated antipathy to, and wish to sabotage, what they see as far left wing ideology being 'slipped in' by the back door under the impetus to change things that climate science gives us. In short, they believe that many of those with environmental climate related concerns are 'watermelons' - green on the outside, red on the inside... Couple this with the 3% minority of climate scientists whose work suggests either that the climate change we see is not really down to us or that climate sensitivity is much lower than the IPCC figure so that means the eventual warming won't be that bad and the benefits may outweigh the problems, and they have at least some scientific justification, even though it is limited in size and overwhelmed by the mainstream view, for 'taking a gamble' to preserve the status quo." -
Mentor at 22:55 PM on 14 March 2019Hopes for our climate future
@nigelj, this is a total illusion as long as overpopulation, greediness and the hunger for money are not stopped. Because the driving force of our economy is making money, gathering assets and creating so-called wealth all at the expense of nature and natural habitats. Even when it becomes so obvious that the already irreparable damage created by our behaviour threatens our existence, people will even try to profit from the self induced catastrophes until our artificial world collapses totally by itself. There is almost no chance of escape.
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Daniel Bailey at 09:56 AM on 14 March 2019Greenland is gaining ice
Surface melt and snowfall mass balance are not the sum of the total mass balance equation by far. Because calving and discharge from the margins are not factored into that.
Per ther DMI:
And
Which brings it into good agreement with NASA:
"Data from NASA's GRACE satellites show that the land ice sheets in both Antarctica (upper chart) and Greenland (lower) have been losing mass since 2002. Both ice sheets have seen an acceleration of ice mass loss since 2009. (Source: GRACE satellite data)
Please note that the most recent data are from June 2017, when the GRACE mission concluded science operations. Users can expect new data from GRACE’s successor mission, GRACE Follow-On, in the summer of 2019."
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Molsen at 09:09 AM on 14 March 2019Greenland is gaining ice
The graph supports the article being updated. The mass loss since 2012 has been much less than what occurred from 2006-2012 — i.e., the mass loss since 2012 is probably one-quarter what is was in the preceding six years.
However, the second paragraph of this entry, with its use of the phrase "drastically increased since the year 2000" misses that entirely.
So, the end of the second paragraph should have the following added to be accurate and fair:
"but the rate of decrease has slowed remarkably since 2012 for reasons that are unknown. This declining rate of mass loss has gone unacknowledged by the media and climate scientists. On the contrary, the media (at least) have reported that the opposite is happening. At this point, that is not the case."
A fair statement?
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Bob Loblaw at 08:05 AM on 14 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
I wouldn't be surpised if one reason Darwin's name rarely comes up in the denialati's musings is because the climate pseudo-skeptic group is probably strongly overlapping the evolution-denying group. The last thing they would want to do is promote Darwin as the kind of scientist they admire.
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scaddenp at 07:48 AM on 14 March 2019Greenland is gaining ice
I believe the report he references is http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/polarportal-saesonrapport-2018-EN.pdf. pg 5 graph show rates of reduction in glacier area has reduced since 2012 (which is good news). However, last mass graph..
doesnt look so hopeful, but we are all waiting for Grace-FO to provide data for the current situation. I dont see anything that would suggest this article is outdated.
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scaddenp at 07:36 AM on 14 March 2019What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
Putting forward a policy proposal that doesnt immediately violate entrenched ideological positions would be a start. Getting action means something that will win bipartisan support rather than increasing polarization. Something that make physical sense would be good too.
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dmyerson at 07:00 AM on 14 March 2019What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand
Scaddenp - "stands no chance of passage in the Senate over the next two years. But Mother Nature does not wait on our political calendar, and neither can we" - that would seem to suggest that something else of value was likely to pass the Senate and become law in the next two years. What would that be? As far as I can see, it is the GND that has forced at least some Republicans to address the issue. My Republican rep chaired the House emergy committee till last Nov and held no hearings on climate change in the years he was chair, nor did anything regarding climate change pass. Now he says he has a better policy than GND, which mostly seems to be cutting down more forests so they won't burn. He ignored the issue till the GND showed up. Whatever one thinks of the policies in the GND, it appears to me to be forceing the discussion, and moving that discussion from whether there is warming caused by humans, to what we should do about it.
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Molsen at 06:19 AM on 14 March 2019Greenland is gaining ice
You should read the Polar Portal Season Report for 2018, published in November 2018, by DMI. It notes some positive things, such as Greenland's glaciers losing only a minor amount of area in the last six years.
That's fantastic news. Take a look at the helpful graph DMI provides on page 5. Will the trend continue this year? I dunno, but it's interesting the last six years have gone unnoticed by the MSM, etc.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please provide a link to the report you have referenced.
PS - When it comes to the impacts of Greenland's melting ice sheet, it is volume, not area, that matters most.
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nigelj at 05:38 AM on 14 March 2019Hopes for our climate future
I want a world that understands that the economy has to be on an environmentally sustainable footing for business to survive and prosper long term, and where clean food, univeral healthcare and social security are assured. I also want to create a world that maximises individual freedom, the freedom to be different, and which maximises private enterprise and private ownership.
A world that balances the rights of the individual with the rights of the community. A world that respects both liberal and sensible conservative concerns, because if it doesn't nobody will listen and no legislation will stick.....
Oh and a world without confirmation bias, dunning kruger, motivated reasoning and logical fallacies...
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:36 AM on 14 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
Anyone wanting to be a Helpful Skeptic improving awareness and understanding of climate science needs to do what Feynman learned to do early in his career 'formally publish their alternative understanding in the Peer Reviewed Publication process'.
Of course, if incorrectly influencing public opinion is the actual objective then 'other means - like political misleading claim-making - would more effectively achieve that end'.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:11 AM on 14 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
Eclectic @53,
I believe that a list of names that are 'used incorrectly' by political misleading marketers attempting to delay improved awareness and understanding of climate science is 'on-topic' for this OP.
My comment @52 included aspects of circumstance for people named in vain that are actually inconsistent with the political misleading marketers who want to claim to be Skeptics just like those they 'name-drop incorrectly'.
I would encourage you to reconsider your understanding of the motives of the anti-climate science marketers. Though some religiously indoctrinated people can be easy targets for politically motivated misleading marketing promotion of climate science denial, the people creating the misleading marketing are not likely to be attempting to defend religious leadership. And they could abuse Darwin by making the claim that 'people who would believe the thinking of Darwin should understand the unacceptability of being dismissive of alternative beliefs'.
My comment @40 presents a likely motive for the development of political misleading marketing against the improvement of awareness and understanding of climate science. And my comment @52 suggests that the development of misleading marketers against climate science was the motivation for developing SkS and the Denial101x MOOC.
Potentially off-topic, I would add that although people agree that it is important to reduce the harm done by the burning of fossil fuels, many of them would not support action that they perceive as potentially negatively affecting them ('their' perception being the key point). And that perception does not depend on religious views.
The misleading marketing efforts to keep people inclined to oppose actions that would reduce the harm done by burning fossil fuels abuse that tendency. They create messaging to tempt people to resist correcting personally beneficial behaviour that is actually understandably harmful. That is potentially why in the USA, and many other places, the majority of the population will say they accept climate science and would support climate action but the majority also continue to support leaders who oppose or want to severely limit such actions. Some people allow their personal interest to over-rule their ability to understand the need to correct their behaviour, particularly to change who they vote for, to stop harming the future of humanity and help develop sustainable improvements.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:14 AM on 14 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
I agree with Eclectic. Feynman is a frequent mention by deniers, although they fail to see how different he was than anyone in their "camp." Feynman was very wary of any kind of certainty or emotional attachment to ideas. He argued that any good scientist is his (her) own worst enemy, and that one should always scrutinize his results, be open to revision or accept that a lot of work was spent on identifying something that was wrong or a dead end. The way that Spencer/Christy handled themselves with the successive corrections required to their work, which were identified and applied by others falls far from these standards, and yet these 2 are among the few legitimate scientists speaking against the consensus; interestingly, their own scientific work that has been subjected to proper scruntiny does not even support their public satements.
Skepticism is the part of Feynman they like, but it requires them to imply that adequate scrutiny and the corresponding scientific approach has not been maintained for literaly thousands of papers to reach the current state of climate science. They try to do that and quickly show that they're full of it. The other important aspect is that Feynman actually was a brilliant physicist, who contributed to the current state of that science. Not one of the very few legitimate scientists speaking against the consensus has a comparable dimension.
Finally, for all his whining against labeling deniers with a pyschological disorder, Prometheus shows some rather shining exmaple of it. He mentions how Feynman denounced the pressures applied by some of the NASA upper management to the whole program, to produce results and launch flights even when risk existed that the real scientists and engineers had identified. This is a clear example of people in position of power, with a strong political component to their role, overriding the judgement of those who actually know what they're talking about. Prometheus would not comment on successive administrations imposing silence on researchers, attempting to suppress or bury results, upper management watering down reports, etc. The most grotesque of all may be the Carolina's legislature attempt to ban the words "sea level rise acceleration." All this happened repeatedly under the Bush administration and has reached unprecedented levels in the current one. It is a blatant example of politics interfering with science, exactly what Prometheus claimed to be wary of, but somehow, that's not where his concerns were. The high quality skeptics he wanted to defend seem to be in ever dwindling supply...
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emanroga at 15:17 PM on 13 March 2019CO2 was higher in the past
It would be good to see an explanation of something other than the Ordovician here... the Earth then was so different in a lot of important ways it's difficult to trust any conclusions. What about Cretaceous or Paleogenic Earth? The CO2 levels then are more comparable to where we are headed, and geological and biological factors are likely more similar.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:15 PM on 13 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
Eclectic @53,
My comment was also a long one.
However, I should have at least included an example of Darwin's name being used in vain by climate science deniers.
This Darwin related item from DeSmogBlog is one example.
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Eclectic at 13:25 PM on 13 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
OPOF @52 ,
thank you for your suggestion of "Darwin" as an addition to the denialists' favorite allusions [addition to my list: Galileo / Einstein / Feynman / Popper].
But in a Cavalier manner, I will reject "Darwin". Yes, he was seen as a contrarian during his early years, as were the scientists Galileo and Einstein. Yet, anecdotally, I haven't ever noticed Darwin's case being used by denialists ~ usually they wish to "wrap themselves in the flag" of famous scientists who were initially ridiculed but were later glorified as being very right. (And probably there's a goodly percentage of climate-denialists who are also evolution-denialists . . . as well as being religious fundamentalists who cling to the biblical belief that God will surely intervene to protect the Earth from major degradation. So Darwin is persona non grata for them.) Galileo and Einstein fit their bill, and the mention of those names "proves" that History will eventually vindicate the "contrarian" climate-denialists.
The case of Feynman is somewhat different, he seems to be alluded to as a brilliant scientist and prominent espouser of skepticism. The denialists fail to appreciate that he was a true skeptic . . . while they themselves are faux-skeptics. But they like to imply they are modern-day Feynmans.
Popper, though not really classified as a scientist, gets some mentions from denialists, because they like his suggestion of the necessity of "falsifiability" (as the absolute criterion for genuine "science"). They wish to wrap themselves in his flag, too. Popper was partly wrong about "falsifiability" [IMO ~ but I don't wish to spend time arguing the point, here] but denialists wish to selectively use falsifiability as a stumbling-block for climate science.
Apologies for my lengthy post, and it is wandering off-topic. But denialism itself is the topic here ~ and I have always found the introduction of some of the above four names, to be a useful raiser of the Red Flag of Suspicion that a poster is engaged in intellectually-dishonest arguments and/or rhetoric. A handy short-cut for the reader.
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nigelj at 12:55 PM on 13 March 2019The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
It seems to me claims its cooling again (insert 1998, 2018, whatever) are a form of stalling for time, just like the claim I have often heard "climate is so complicated so we need more research before cutting emissions". Stalling for time is a common denialist rhetorical tactic, and could be included in courses on denial 101x (if it isn't already).
Realcimate.org have a new page called the crank shaft, on some of the whackiest, craziest pseudo science theories. I thought at first the examples were satire, but no they are apparently real.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:25 PM on 13 March 2019The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
Making a claim that takes 'time to be proven to be incorrect' is a common tactic of the climate science deniers. They are not being skeptical of the science. They are politically trying to delay the improvement of awareness and understanding among the general population regarding how incorrect and harmful the people they are voting to support actually are.
A similar tactic will be used when the most recent decade of data is added to the global surface temperature escalator. The claim will be made that the economic harm of the correction is now so big (because the economy was incorrectly increased in the wrong direction and the needed correction is more significant and needed in a shorter time frame). Surely it would be prudent and pragmatic to wait until one more decade of temperature data is actually gathered. We really need to be very sure about this - don't we?
The people who have developed undeserved perceptions of superiority (wealth or power) by benefiting from the burning of fossil fuels, particularly through the past 30 years when it was undeniable that the activity needed to be globally curtailed, fear the coming correction will actually negatively affect them and their 'status relative to others' (as it should - they should particularly lose any increased perceptions of status obtained through the past 30 years).
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Bob Loblaw at 11:54 AM on 13 March 2019The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
scaddenp@4
I disagree. THe problem is that the pseudo-skeptics and misinformers have nothing new to say, short of re-hashing zombie myths that are easily debunked by a simple search-and-replace, and that their "arguments" are easily foreseen several years in advance.
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nigelj at 11:44 AM on 13 March 2019The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
OPOF, good advice. When I originally clicked on the link to the graph it opened as a rather small image and the print was fuzzy. But the graph opens at a good size in my other computer and phone (both also using google oddly enough and the same version) so its an issue with one of my computers and it's google browser. Strange things computers.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:25 AM on 13 March 2019The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
nigelj and Ari,
A bit of playing with the 'zoom' level of my browser indicates that a 'zoom' of 200% results in the image in the OP being the same size on screen as the image size produced by clicking the link to a bigger version (the linked screen image appears at 100% zoom).
Basically, the link goes to an image that is 200% of the OP scale if the OP is being viewed at 100% zoom (no zoom).
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Ken in Oz at 08:55 AM on 13 March 2019Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
The Broecker led 1975 NAS/NSC report "Understanding Climatic Change; a Program for Action" was an important one that gets less mention than I think it should. As a counter to "scientists predicted cooling in the 1970's" arguments it is priceless - making it clear that the 70's science did not have sufficient quantitative understanding of climate processes to make such predictions and proposing a science program to turn that around. Which ultimately led to a soundly based conclusion that we don't have to worry about global cooling - although learning exactly why we need not worry about imminent global cooling was not nearly so reassuring as people had hoped. The government responses more closely followed the advice within that report - the current mainstream best available knowledge - and not the ice age alarmism that was principally a media creation. (Building on hype begun by existing nuclear winter stories?)
Broecker's 1975 report also made clear that understanding how and to what extent human activities might affect the climate had already been a long running, if not yet so high priority, goal within existing science programs. Science programs that had, at that point, cross-partisan support.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:30 AM on 13 March 2019Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5
Eclectic@45
I suggest adding Darwin to your list.
Einstein and Darwin introduced very good new explanations of what was going on. Their developed thoughts differed from, or went beyond, the awareness and understanding that had been developed at their time. Unlike the claims made by politically motivated deniers of climate science, their thoughts were consistent with all of the already developed awareness, information and observations.
Darwin, in particular, faced opposition from opinionated people whose developed perceptions of status were challenged by the improved awareness and understanding that Darwin presented. They were unable to reasonably argue in support of their preferred opinions. But they were powerfully motivated to not correct their awareness and understanding (to maintain perceptions of status, including maintaining the status quo). And those challenged by Darwin's improvement of understanding tried very hard, and still try today, to delay the improvement of awareness and understanding in the general population (I will come back to this).
Feynman's case is a little different. Initially, he was unable to get his ideas across in a brief conference presentation to his peers (he faced a lack of acceptance by the established scientific community at that time based on that presentation). However, when he formally published his ideas they became generally understood, accepted, referred to and worked with by his peers (legitimate climate science skeptics would present their thoughts for consideration through the Peer Reviewed Publication process - and attempts to publish in incorrectly peer reviewed publications are political acts, not the pursuit of improved scientific understanding).
Galileo actually had the correct independently verifiable basis for the awareness and understanding that he presented. But his case is a clearer example of presenting a more correct awareness and understanding that challenged the legitimacy of developed perceptions of status of 'the socioeconomic-political leadership of his time and place' (Similar to Darwin, but leadership in Darwin's time included people whose status was not significantly challenged by the new awareness and understanding).
Contrary to the claims made-up by political deniers of climate science (as differentiated from science skeptics who would address their skepticism through the Peer Reviewed Publication process), the climate science community is the party that is most 'like Galileo'. They are collectively developing a more correct awareness and understanding that is challenging the legitimacy of developed perceptions of status of 'the currently developed socioeconomic-political leadership'.
Applying Abductive Reasoning (pursuing the likely best explanation for what can be observed to be happening when what is being observed cannot be investigated by controlled repeatable experiments), Prometheus has very likely developed a personal preference for claims that cannot be reasonably substantiated - an all too common nonsensical and harmfully incorrect result of political marketing actions by deliberately misleading deniers (likely for the reasons I suggested in my comment @40).
Philippe Chantreau's simple request of Prometheus (that could be perceived as a confrontational challenge if the request cannot be responded to reasonably), to present a single example of "relavent arguements made by the skeptics that has changed the perspective of climate change science and advocates alike", has led to a stream of commenting that exposes that Prometheus is very likely acting politically in an effort to impede their own improvement of awareness and understanding regarding climate science (also, potentially hoping to reduce how much the politically incorrect climate science denial efforts they have a developed preference for are publicly challenged and confronted on SkS).
The motivation for the helpful development of websites like SkS is likely the powerful political misleading marketing efforts to resist the corrections of developed perceptions of status that the acceptance of climate science rationally/naturally can be understood to lead to (corrections of perceptions of wealth or influence developed due to the harmful and unsustainable, and incorrectly popular and profitable, burning of fossil fuels). And the diversity of political misinformation marketing tactics abused by the climate science denial industry are likely the motivation for the helpful development of the Denial101x MOOC.
Improving awareness and understanding and the application of that knowledge to help develop sustainable improvements for a robust diversity of humanity thriving in ways that fit into the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet clearly needs all of the likes of SkS and the Denial101x MOOC that can be developed.
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scaddenp at 07:17 AM on 13 March 201997% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
The inclusion of "President Obama" would suggest the poster views the world through a political lense.
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JWRebel at 06:25 AM on 13 March 2019Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
Sorry: [Edit @1] Shift to 100,000 from 41,000 year cycles
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JWRebel at 06:18 AM on 13 March 2019Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
Dated 08 Mar 2019
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JWRebel at 06:17 AM on 13 March 2019Wallace Broecker: Scientists memorialize a titan of climate science
Off topic but related, interesting article on the role of ocean circulation in climate and carbon cycle feed-backs determining ice-age periodicity and the shift from 100,000 to 41,000 year cycles by Hasenfratz et al
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6431/1080/tab-pdf
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Philippe Chantreau at 01:10 AM on 13 March 201997% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
Good question Postkey. I don't recall anyone ever really be that specific. No quote is provided. And it is, in fact, off topic. This thread is about Anthony Watts' and others assertion that the consensus is based on only one paper, and that said paper was flawed enough to invalidate the results. As usual, Watts is full of it.
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John Hartz at 01:06 AM on 13 March 2019The temperature evolution after 2016 suggests hotter future
Recommended supplementl reading:
Global Warming ‘Hiatus’ Is the Climate Change Myth That Refuses to Die by Kevin Cowtan & Stephan Lewandowski, DeSmog, Mar 9, 2019
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