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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recent Comments

Comments 11701 to 11750:

scaddenp at 06:30 AM on 7 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

"far too close coupling between government and the science" Between every government or just the US? In US, government funding is channelled through NSF. Perhaps you could explain how a government is going promote nonsense through this channel? On the otherhand, we do see governments (Australia, US) trying to muzzle scientist or defund science where the dont like what it is saying - "killing the messenger". That is certainly an uncomfortable relationship if happening in any sphere of science, not just climate research.

I also dont really get the narrative climate science being a means for government oppression. Can you express this is any way that doesnt sound like a whacked-out conspiracy theory? I get that people dont like the facts, and so we naturally question the facts (scientists are really good at this). But deciding that the facts must be manufactured because they are generated by a government-funded organization?

scaddenp at 06:14 AM on 7 March 2019

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I think it would be truer to say that this site is extremely adversarial to those promoting misinformation and downright medacious misrepresentation of science, especially for ideological purposes. Science is the best means we have to investigate the nature of reality and policy should be guided by available science understanding at the time.

nigelj at 05:47 AM on 7 March 2019

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Prometheus @7

"I'm speaking only to skeptics that don't get caught up in intellectual dishonesty. "

So where are your good sceptics that have had some substantial impact on climate science? I can't see any. Their work has not stood up to the scrutiny of their peers.

"Does this insinuates that you agree that the site is indeed adversarial? It’s just not the worst."

This website is set up to counter common sceptical myths so is adversarial in that regard. Nothing wrong with that. It is facts based and has a strict moderation policy.

Climate sceptics websites are by definition adversarial. If they understood the science better there would be less adversity! You are being adversarial towards government.

"The weakness in mistakes, exaggerations and the like are a weakness of both sides of the political spectrum"

Yes at times, but right now global opinion looks very like it is saying Trump is the worst offender.

"I would like too, but this commentary is about the post of denial, and I could see this turning into a massive argument over the arguments."

Stop dodging the issue. It would take you just a couple of examples, a five second job.

"One of the main weaknesses in climate science is the far too close coupling between government and the science. People have a natural (and well deserved) propensity to not trust the government. All of these organizations you listed are government organizations. Science is not an authority unless people trust it."

The coupling between government and science is inevitable , dates back centuries, and there are more than enough checks and balances to ensure things are properly done. The reason for the coupling is this. The private sector has a poor record of research in the more explorative hard science and in problems that confront humanity because this does not generate profitability. Its a basic market failure. Economics 101. So governments fill the gap and protect the public interest by ensuring issues like climate change get adequate research funding. The research is not all done by government agencies, only some is.

And look at the almost endless list of useful science that has come from government funding and / or government agencies. The internet itself was created by the military and non for profit universities.

And what are the alternatives? I dont think we should trust the fossil fuel companies to do the research. Care to discuss why? Should be obvious to you.

Apple computers? But why would someone like that be even interested?

Even if you had a separate commercial umbrella organisation, it would still have to be set up by government and funded by public money. Its not going to spring up out of nothing.

With respect I think some peoples suspicion of government is verging on paranoia. And this is coming from someone who is suspicious of governments at times.

Plus what Philip Chantreau said.

"If it were my world, which it isn't, then all skeptics would be funded by groups without any bias. However, we are not in that world......I believe that the government organizations have a massive bias, yet they are the source of funding for much of the climate science research."

I'm not really sure what you are saying. It's not like there are warmist researchers and sceptics in some precise division of labour. Some researchers come up with sceptical looking results, and they get funding from various sources including government grants sometimes and other organisations who have literally billions of dollars, so there is no shortage of funds. There is not a huge volume of research that finds sceptical results not because of a lack of funding, but because not many scientists are able to find any problems with the mainstream agw view, and when they think they have, their results don't stand much scrutiny.

Can you please provide some hard evidence of so called government bias? I would suggest governments have no interest in global warming problems and exaggerating them, because they have enough other problems to deal with. Think man: if you were in politics would you be saying "we need research to exaggerate this climate problem, so that we have more problems to deal with that can go wrong, and make us all look stupid?"

BaerbelW at 05:35 AM on 7 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

This new article from The Logic of Science seems to be very relevant to this discussion:

How not to science: Lessons from flat earthers and climate change deniers

Enjoy!

Philippe Chantreau at 04:36 AM on 7 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

Your post is full of ideology and every bit as biased as you suggest others are. I personally trust the government for protecting the public's interest far more than I trust corporations, or any other organization, except those specifically created to protect the public's interest. Not only because it is the logical thing to do considering where their interest truly is, but because of their respective records. I hear all this distrust about the government, and very little to back it up. In fact, most of the stuff that would back it up is what happens when the government is corrupted by private interests for the furtherance of their profits. It's funny how the government gets so much scrutiny and so much bad press every time one little thing goes wrong, but the private sector gets a passs by default even when they commit the most massive screw ups.

Private banks came close to tanking the World economy in 2008, because the entire financial system had become fraudulent. Hardly anyone went to jail. A few years later they're already complaining against regulations put in place to prevent them from doing it again. Last December, Century Link had a giant screw-up that rendered 911 inoperative in hundreds of counties throughout the nation, and it was barely even mentioned; I don't want to even imagine the uproar if it was a government service. In 2017, Equifax essentially opened the doors and let their commercial base free for the taking, namely the private information of 143 million Americans, and everyone just shrugged their shoulders. No consequence whatsoever. I never hear anything from the "government is bad" types about these problems, which reveals a double standard large enough to invalidate anything they say that includes the word bias.

Even you Prometheus trust the government far more than you think: I bet that you have no problem taking an airplane to cross the country without doubting that Air Traffic Control will do its job. Think about this: if ATC had a 99.99% success rate in their handling of flights all over the nation, you would see about 50 ATC-caused crashes per day. Instead, you see exactly zero, because the FAA achieves 100% success rate every day and has done so for years. As for the airlines, they achieve their success largely by complying with all these pesky regulations fort maintenance and operation that are there so our butts get from A to B safely every time. That's government work right there, so much a part of the landscape that people don't even realize it's serving them. This lack of perception and of recognition applies to pretty much everything that the government does right, which is vastly more than anyone in the US realizes.

You're talking about NASA and NOAA as if they were shady organizations bent on deceiving the public. That is total nonsense. Not only they are open to scrutiny and far more transparent than many private organizations, but their existence and their funding depends on them doing their job right. These administrations are full of highly educated, dedicated scientific experts, who often could make far more money in the private sector but they want to serve the public. Over the years, NOAA has refined their understanding of hurricanes and can now give 72 hours of notice within a very well defined geographical area so that evacuations can take place before a storm strikes. They save lives that way, and businesses too. Of course, some work at NASA has very strong implications with national defense and military applications, so the apropriate secrecy applies; usually the military is the darling of the "bad governement" types of ideologues so perhaps you don't mind that part.

So-called skeptics, led by the Fossil Fuel funded McIntyre, started whining about NASA Goddard not releasing the code for their climate models some years back (a number of years, I've followed this for a while). The argument from Gavin Schmidt at the time for not giving the code was perfectly reasonable because the algorithm had been released, but McIntyre went on a full blown mind manipulation campaign that was quite successful with his gullible followers. So NASA released the code, and of course, nothing happened. Zip. Why? Because none of these self professed skeptics had the expertise or were willing to put in the effort to examine the code. The demands to release information were nothing but a campaign to spread doubt in the integrity of NASA. Once the code was released, the pseudo-skeptics moved on to other things.

Another governement disliker and skeptic was Richard Muller. He did not believe NASA and NOAA either, so decided to examine global temperatures on his own by forming an independent team at Berkeley. He was hailed as a hero at the time by Anthony Watts. After quite a bit of painstaking dedicated work, they came to pretty much the same conclusion as NASA and NOAA. Anthony Watts didn't like him any more. You can find the BEST stuff along with the other sources regularly updated on the Real Climate site: NOAA, HADCRUT etc...

I've had conversations on this site before with skeptics strongly animated by anti-governement ideology, sometimes on the subject of MODTRAN, the line by line atmospheric radiative transfer model. They argue that it's just a model and it's a government thing, whatever. Yes, it's a model, developed by the Air Force for infrared weapon guidance, you really think it's inaccurate?

After years of following this pseudo-debate, it turns out to be really simple. Science aims at understanding the world. The quality, sincere science in the case of climate change overhwelmingly points in a certain direction. Fossil fuel interests have billions of dollars of profit per quarter at stake. Who do I trust? Seriously? What a joke.

Postkey at 04:06 AM on 7 March 2019

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". . . If you have to believe that all of these organizations, and all of the climate scientists around the world, and all of the hundred thousand published research papers, and physics, are all somehow part of a global, multigenerational conspiracy . . . "

Prometheus at 01:29 AM on 7 March 2019

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I apologize for the non-italalized post. I wrote this in word, and when I copied and pasted, I didn't notice them being removed.

Prometheus at 01:20 AM on 7 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

There are a lot of responses, and I'll try to capture all of them the best I can.

Can you please explain to people how strawmen, cherrypicking, out of context statements, and fake experts are not some form of intellectual dishonesty? .. Nobody says all sceptics use these, but they do feature quite frequently.

I don't need too, it should be obvious. I'm speaking only to skeptics that don't get caught up in intellectual dishonesty. There are two different modes of rhetoric in the context of Climate Science - Science and politics. It’s easy to see the dishonesty in politics, and I personally don't care to speak to those, but these people are driven by a fight over a fear of what they see as government oppression. I'm speaking to the pursuit of science and science alone, which is a subject of learning and understanding. Yes, there are a number of skeptics that are clearly in pursuit of this. Frequency of good skeptics doesn’t matter. It only took one Einstein to change the whole perspective of physics.
You think this website is adverserial? What about the death threats climatescientists like M Mann have received? Theres some real adversity for you.
Does this insinuates that you agree that the site is indeed adversarial? It’s just not the worst.

And what about Trumps blatant exaggerations and mistakes about the climate issues? You ok with that?

I am not interested in political discussions. I think subjects of science need to be outside of the politics. Politics, by nature, lacks critical thinking and only reacts to a motive. The weakness in mistakes, exaggerations and the like are a weakness of both sides of the political spectrum

Nobody has said anyone has a psychological denial issue.

The above article has the text "We explain the psychological drivers of denial," So while this statement speaks to drivers, its clearly putting it in context of an issue, and further explains how to use mythbusters to counteract the denial.

Prometheus, can you cite an example of "relavent arguements made by the skeptics that has changed the perspective of climate change science and advocates alike"?

I would like too, but this commentary is about the post of denial, and I could see this turning into a massive argument over the arguments. I’d be happy to go over these either privately or in another discussion setting. I love exploring these arguments.

How about enroling in our MOOC and working through the material to find out what it is about and how much merit the comments made by „skeptics“ actually have?
I've never heard of the MOOC, but I am interested and would love to join.

“For climate change, there are many scientific organizations that study the climate. These alphabet soup of organizations include NASA, NOAA, JMA, WMO, NSIDC, IPCC, UK Met Office, and others.
One of the main weaknesses in climate science is the far too close coupling between government and the science. People have a natural (and well deserved) propensity to not trust the government. All of these organizations you listed are government organizations. Science is not an authority unless people trust it.

If you have to dismiss all of these scientific organizations to reach your opinion, then you are by definition denying the science.

Incorrect. This is exactly my problem. This is a political statement. Denying a science does not have anything to do with denying any organization. Science is about learning, and people are denying learning because the science is too political. The information in the science is only as good as its authority. People do not consider these organizations as authorities because they are government organizations.

Many of these are run by lobbyists (e.g.., Climate Depot, run by a libertarian political lobbyist, CFACT), or supported by lobbyists (e.g., JoannaNova, WUWT, both of whom have received funding and otherwise substantial support by lobbying organizations like the Heartland Institute), or are actually paid by lobbyists to write Op-Eds and other blog posts that intentionally misrepresent the science.”

If it were my world, which it isn't, then all skeptics would be funded by groups without any bias. However, we are not in that world. If a skeptic wants to be funded for research that challenges climate change hypothesis, how do you think they should get funded in this world? Do you think the government organizations you listed would fund them? They can only be funded by those who are interested in it. I believe that the government organizations have a massive bias, yet they are the source of funding for much of the climate science research.

I don’t trust the government. Do you think it would be fair for me to state “Most climate science is run by the government who are actually paid to intentionally misrepresent the science in order to support policy”? Being an intellectual, I don’t, and I do read the IPCC reports anyways and try to learn about what they are trying to say. I hold my criticism in pure objectivity and cross a number of information sources (including my in-depth knowledge of physics) to form my understanding. For me, it isn’t difficult to weed out the dishonesty using this strategy. And if I see it, the authority is gone, and I will seek other sources. This is no different with the organizations you listed above.

AEBanner at 23:30 PM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

Eclectic @189

Thank you yet again for another interesting and helpful post.

Of course, I understand the need to talk about “a bunch of molecules”, rather than a single molecule. But suppose in a hypothetical scenario that all the nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the bunch collided with all the GHG molecules in the bunch, and gave up all their translational kinetic energy in raising the excited vibrational levels in the GHG molecules.
What then would have happened to the average temperature of the bunch? With no remaining translational kinetic energy, this would presumably mean that the temperature of the bunch would then be determined by the vibrational energies. So would the overall temperature change?

I really hope you can help me on this please.

michael sweet at 22:44 PM on 6 March 2019

Models are unreliable

Bripuk:

It is impossible to predict how much CO2 humans will eventually release. Without that information it is hard to be confident in all future projections.

If it is assumed that humans stop releasing CO2 in 2050 or 2100 a projection can be made but it will have significant possible unknowns. Long range projections have been made for 5000 years with a variety of different scenarios. Some look OK and others are scary.

bripuk at 19:45 PM on 6 March 2019

Models are unreliable

I have a very simple question. Is it possible to predict what the global climate will look like in 5000 years time using the current models?

Postkey at 19:25 PM on 6 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

"Now, it appears to be more likely that it is a hoax to get more money from civillians . . . "

“For climate change, there are many scientific organizations that study the climate. These alphabet soup of organizations include NASA, NOAA, JMA, WMO, NSIDC, IPCC, UK Met Office, and others. Click on the names for links to their climate-related sites. There are also climate research organizations associated with universities. These are all legitimate scientific sources.

If you have to dismiss all of these scientific organizations to reach your opinion, then you are by definition denying the science. If you have to believe that all of these organizations, and all of the climate scientists around the world, and all of the hundred thousand published research papers, and physics, are all somehow part of a global, multigenerational conspiracy to defraud the people, then you are, again, a denier by definition.

So if you deny all the above scientific organizations there are a lot of un-scientific web sites out there that pretend to be science. Many of these are run by lobbyists (e.g.., Climate Depot, run by a libertarian political lobbyist, CFACT), or supported by lobbyists (e.g., JoannaNova, WUWT, both of whom have received funding and otherwise substantial support by lobbying organizations like the Heartland Institute), or are actually paid by lobbyists to write Op-Eds and other blog posts that intentionally misrepresent the science.”
https://thedakepage.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/how-to-assess-climate-change.html

MA Rodger at 17:10 PM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner @188,

Some very basic physics about gases. Your question is greatly confused. GHG molecules are not particular about which type of molecule they meet and collide with. The temperature of a gas is a measure of the average translational (ie movement in a straight line) momentum of the gas molecules. The Thermal Heat Capacity of a gas is greater than the sum of molecular translational momentum as there are molecules set spinning and wobbling (yes - the excited state which CO2 is in before it emits photons) and the presence of spinning and wobbling requires significant levels of extra internal energy within the gas. As temperature is a function of the average translational momentum within a gas, an individual gas molecule does not really have 'temperature' and if it did the 'excited state' is not treated as part of that 'temperature', at least within ideal gas law.

Note that I use the word "average translational momentum." There is a distribition of such molecular momentum within an ideal gas - the Boltzmann distribution. This straightforward piece of mathematics/physics should provide you an answer to your question @183:-

"Perhaps you can provide a number for the proportion of greenhouse gas molecules in the atmosphere which can undergo the required excitation per unit time, together with a reference for me to follow up?"

Eclectic at 16:56 PM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner @188 ,

you can see from the statistical composition of the atmosphere, that a GHG molecule is most likely to gain energy in a collision with a nitrogen or oxygen molecule. And higher air temperature equals more & "harder" collisions per unit time, and therefore more photons emitted per unit time (with due allowance for mass/volume considerations i.e. air density).

Air temperature derives from the average kinetic energy of the whole bundle of molecules (including the relatively rare H2O, CO2, and other GHG's) with, again, air density allowed for. This kinetic energy also includes the vibrational mode of these molecules.

An individual molecule is not said to have a temperature, since we are only concerned with averages here (and if you like to regard one individual molecule's velocity . . . then the velocity will be varying enormously with each collision i.e. varying billions of times per second, in a way totally impractical for our purposes).

[ Once you get to the tenuous semi-vacuum of the mesosphere, some scientists will use the concept "kinetic temperature" for certain reasons of convenience. But the super-low air density means it's still mighty chilly for us humans ~ even at a kinetic temperature of 300 degrees, my hand would gradually freeze if I poked it out of the port-hole of my spaceship (assuming I am in the Earth's shadow) ].

BaerbelW at 16:10 PM on 6 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

Prometheus @2

How about enroling in our MOOC and working through the material to find out what it is about and how much merit the comments made by „skeptics“ actually have?

One Planet Only Forever at 15:55 PM on 6 March 2019

Inequality, Sunk Costs, and Climate Policy

nigelj,

An additional consideration regarding building height, not just for apartments, is that fire truck ladder rescue has an elevation limit.

Regarding local energy supply for a high-rise building, things like a semi-transparent solar power surfacing on its exterior and/or wind turbine features built into it can provide some local renewable power.

AEBanner at 13:40 PM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

Eclectic @ 185 and @186

Thank you yet again for two more excellent posts. Very informative and helpful.

A question, though, if I may. When a GHG molecule collides with a nitrogen or oxygen molecule in the atmosphere, and is, therefore, raised to its excited state, does the ghg molecule’s temperature increase?

AEBanner at 13:17 PM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

scaddenp @ 184

Thank you for a very informative post.

Just one small point, though. In your first sentence, I think you meant “in proportion to the fourth power of their Absolute temperature.”

But, thanks, anyway.

Philippe Chantreau at 12:06 PM on 6 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

Prometheus, can you cite an example of "relavent arguements made by the skeptics that has changed the perspective of climate change science and advocates alike"?

Eclectic at 11:46 AM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner ,

an addition :- Somewhere earlier, you asked about the threshold temperature required for a gas to radiate photons.

In practical terms, there is no threshold. Owing to the wide spectrum of distribution of energies (kinetic energies) possessed by gas molecules, there will always be some [few or many] molecules temporarily possessing sufficient energy to generate & emit a photon. So a gas will continue to radiate photons, at a dwindling rate, as the gas temperature lowers towards Absolute Zero.

Eclectic at 11:12 AM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner ,

if I may add to Scaddenp's comment :

the answers you seek are to be found in basic science textbooks.

Gasseous molecules collide with each other at a rate of billions of times per second (not millions but literally billions of times per second, even in the cold upper troposphere). Not surprising, since air molecules are close together and move at mostly 100 - 600 m/sec [plus faster and slower outliers] for upper troposphere (see Maxwell-Boltzmann distributions).

The frequency rate of photon emissions is many orders of magnitude lower than that ~ but even so, we are talking of a vast rate of photon emissions. And that is why I mentioned (in earlier posts) that kinetic energy & photonic energy are continuously interchanging. The "churn" rate is so high, that we can fairly consider kinetic/photon energy as representing two sides of one coin.

That is why we cannot consider kinetic energy as a separate sequestered form of energy. It makes absolutely no difference whether the atmosphere gains its energy from geothermal / human-industrial / ocean-land origin (or solar origin, of course). It is all one.

Heat energy (in both "sensible" and radiational forms) is continuously flowing into & out of the planetary air layer. The air remains in near equilibrium thermally, but the flux rates are enormous.

Heat transferred from air to ocean-land is sooner or later recycled back into the air ~ and thus the planet's energy gained from the sun does eventually meet the fate of being radiated from (mostly) the Top of Atmosphere ( TOA, mentioned earlier). All that matters is the total amount of energy flows involved.

That is why the idea of industrial heat specially accumulating over time, is quite impossible. That's not how the universe works.

scaddenp at 10:13 AM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

Volcanoes, surfaces warmed by sun or atmosphere - and car engines say - all directly emit radiation in proportion to their temperature.

In a power station, energy losses from heat radiated by the boiler and lost as hot gases escaping the flue are typically only 10-20% of the energy value of the fuel. ( I am working with efficiency analysis tools from power station data, but I think this is easily discoverable online). In a car, the losses are much higher.

Still, cooling systems do heat the air, but the air has no trouble emitting IR. There is nothing special about the air warmed by FF compared to it warmed by any other mechanism. You can measure it with a pyrogeometer. Scienceofdoom walks you through the text book here.

nigelj at 09:03 AM on 6 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

Prometheus @2

Can you please explain to people how strawmen, cherrypicking, out of context statements, and fake experts are not some form of intellectual dishonesty? Because I mean they just obviously are intellectual dishonesty. They all obscure the truth in different ways. Nobody says all sceptics use these, but they do feature quite frequently.

And what about Trumps blatant exaggerations and mistakes about the climate issues? You ok with that?

Nobody has said anyone has a psychological denial issue. Its shorthand for being in significant disagreement with the IPCC findings. And some sceptics make useful points but they get obscured by a huge volume of noise and obvious nonsense.

I agree ideally keep politics out of it. But the Republicans keep bringing it into things. For example they label the GND as socialist etcetera rather than tackling it on its specifics.

You think this website is adverserial? What about the death threats climate scientists like M Mann have received? Theres some real adversity for you.

Prometheus at 08:04 AM on 6 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

I keep up with arguements between many skeptics and this site (including the many harsh words that have been thrown at them for giving an well educated oppinion), and I find that there are a number of relavent arguements made by the skeptics that has changed the perspective of climate change science and advocates alike.

The point of this post is to promote the idea that rather than listening to a skeptic, point your finger at anyone other out there skeptical oppinion and tell them they have a psychological 'denial' issue, which not what any persons who supports freedoms of thought should do. Einstein, and many like him, would of rejected these posts, as tactics like these have been used agains him by the German scientists ('Denial' of then scientific truths of that day that he challenged).

I think SkepticalScience would be better off staying objective rather than get involved with politics, which is, in my oppinion, the very purpose of this post and any post that labels the intentions of skeptics as liers and decievers.

When I started trying to understand AGP and Climate Change, this site was extremely helpful in getting me started. But as I looked deeper into comments from skeptics and what they had to say (including their websites), I'm seeing clearly that this site is very adversarial. I've finding myself less and less supportive of SkepticalScience as I come across these things.

Moderator Response:

[JH] Your concerns are duly noted.

AEBanner at 07:56 AM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes Global Warming

scaddenp @179

Do you not agree that heat from the Sun, volcanoes, etc, can be radiated away to space?
But sensible heat from the burning of fossil fuels, ie kinetic energy of the air molecules, cannot be radiated. It must first be converted into “photon” energy by collision with GHG molecules. Perhaps you can provide a number for the proportion of greenhouse gas molecules in the atmosphere which can undergo the required excitation per unit time,
together with a reference for me to follow up?
This would really be helpful, and I should be grateful for the information.

Of course, you are correct in stating that burning fossil fuels can possibly raise the surrounding structures to a temperature at which radiation could become significant, but I have no idea regarding the proportion relative to kinetic energy emission.
Again, I hope you can reply quantitatively, with references. It would be a great help.

Many thanks, in advance.

nigelj at 07:27 AM on 6 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

OPOF @55.

Yes its hard to see an argument against being helpful that doesn't make a person look obnoxious!

One thing. China does have an emerging socal welfare system of a sort. I read it somewhere last year. "Social Welfare in China" on Wikipedia is interesting and covers some of it.

America is indoctrinated in individualism. I strongly support individual diversity and non conformity, but individualism taken to the extremes in America is causing some obvious problems.

But the greater problem is the complete split between what the majority of the public wants and what congress etc deliver. America has become an oligarchy.

nigelj at 06:25 AM on 6 March 2019

Inequality, Sunk Costs, and Climate Policy

Urban sprawl has some problems with inefficient transport, but highrise apartment living has its own set of problems, for example they are reliant on traditional centralised power supplies, a lot of technology, tiny little psychologically oppressive apartments, and nowhere proper for kids to play. There are also transport issues because such cities are very reliant on intensive transport links to the hinterland. This article compares the pros and cons.

There are also medium density options. Paris is like this to some extent with 4 story apartments.

I think the more issues of inequality that are brought into the climate issue the more climate mitigation laws will be slowed down. I hate saying this, because I think inequality is a social and economic problem. However carbon fee and dividend does have an equality dimension that cannot be avoided and such a fee system needs to be fair and not punish low income people.

AEBanner at 05:42 AM on 6 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes Global Warming

michael sweet @174

In this post you have completely misrepresented some of my ideas/remarks; in reality, you are not the only one to have done this previously.
Or perhaps you have simply completely understood my post @172
Or again, perhaps, you carelessly made a genuine mistake, in which case no apology is expected.

I quote your first two paragraphs.
“You contradict yourself. You have claimed that sensible heat emitted by humans accumulates in the atmosphere. Yet you now claim that sensible heat from volcanoes is emitted to space as radient energy. A contradictory argument can automatically be dismissed.
You cannot have it both ways. If human heat accumulates than volcano heat must also accumulate. If volcano heat is emitted to space than human heat must also be emitted. Since the volcano heat is so much greater it is the dominant effect.
End Quote.

Now I shall quote from my own previous post @172 to you, last three paragraphs.

My Quote
“Anyway, back to the volcanoes. As far as I know, the output from a volcano consists of hot lava, hot material particles, and much heat energy in the form of sensible heat, that is kinetic energy. And, of course, the adjacent land area will also be raised in temperature.

The hot materials including lava, particles and the hot adjacent land will radiate energy, in line with black body radiation, which ultimately escapes to space. The sensible heat in the form of kinetic energy of the air molecules mainly enters the oceans, in line with the 97% value you are no doubt referring to from the IPCC AR4 report, and Kevin Trenberth’s 3% into the atmosphere. ( This latter subject to further interaction with the oceans and associated subsequent radiation.)

But the important thing here is that the oceans, being liquid, will also radiate, eventually to space, and this will proceed to maintain a satisfactory balance. Yes,
the volcano emissions started billions of years ago, but so did the balancing radiation, so maintaining a satisfactory temperature for the Earth’s surface, and not boiling away the oceans.”

End my quote

You will see that I wrote that, in respect of volcanoes, sensible heat in the form of kinetic energy of the air molecules mainly enters the oceans.
Then see my third paragraph.

Another quote from your @ 174

Scientists have shown that waste heat is emitted to space in the year that it was created

End quote

This, at least, is interesting. Please grant me the courtesy of a reference to this.

AEBanner at 22:42 PM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

Eclectic @178

Thank you for another excellent posr.

You have a way of making things very clear, in a positive and constructive manner.

AEBanner

Moderator Response:

[DB] You also need to address the comments and questions pitched to you in comments 174, 179 and 180.

MA Rodger at 20:31 PM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

scaddenp @179.

The commenter AEBanner seems to have run out of substantive comment. Perhaps we should recap and properly expose the level of nonsense he is spuoting.

Taking the two periods 1961-2003 and 1993-2003 as these are used within IPCC AR4 Fig 5.4, we have respectively 159 Zj and 89 Zj accumulation within the global system of which 5 Zj and 2 Zj are atmospheric accumulations.

IPCC AR4 Fig 5.4

We could also add the energy lost to space because the globe is warming at 1.8ºC/decade, but the commenter AEBanner seems loathed to include such large numbers in his calculations.

This Our World Data web-page gives easy downloads of annual primary energy use back to 1965 which can be interpolated back to 1961. For the two periods 1961-2003 and 1993-2003 FF+Nuclear primary energy total 11 Zj and 3.4 Zj respectively.

This would leave anyone scratching their head as to why AEBanner could use this data "to offer an alternative theory to explain global warming" which is what he came to SkS proclaiming and, despite all the massive holes picked in his grand theory since then. he insists his grand theory has not come crashing down.

Perhaps the full horror of his grand theory should be exposed.

Visiting the nonsense he sets out elsewhere on the web (there are links up-thread but it requires registration which seems a little haughty for what it is), I see calculations for primary energy 1966-2016 which appear fine (18 Zj) and this is split between NH (164 Zj) & SH (16 Zj) which may or may not be fine. These are then used to calculate surface temperature rises over the period for each hemisphere by calculation how much warming this energy would provide to dry air. The curious method employed (increase in kinetic energy per molecule x no of molecules in troposphere) yields him temperature increases for the period of NH = 0.61ºC, SH = 0.06ºC (or would do if he followed his own method). These are reconciled with surface temperature increases for the period, (which are curiously sourced , one from GISS NH = 0.75ºC & one from HadCRUT SH= 0.55ºC); reconciled for the SH by assuming warming from the oceans, in SH +0.51ºC and because it has less ocean in NH an adjustemnt of +0.38ºC is included to obtain +0.99ºC. Strngely the final step which is traditional within such ridiculous calculations has not been made - subtracting the number you first thought of - so even for a pile of rubbish it is not complete.

Note the energy calculated for the IPCC to warm the atmosphere (5 Zj & 2 Zj) are far lower than the FF+Nuclear primary energy use for the periods in question (11 Zj & 3.4 Zj) yet commenter AEBanner manages to not find enough energy to warm his atmosphere and has then to employ some magical mermaids to provide the rest.

scaddenp at 10:18 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

"But, if additional energy enters the system and cannot be radiated away, then the temperature will increase."

Let me if I this right. You are claiming that heat from the sun, volcanoes etc can be radiated away but heat from burning FF cannot? The 10²³J from FF stays in atmosphere, but 4x10²⁶J from radiation is irradiated away.

Furthermore, your calculations on what energy of gases seem to assume a limit based on mean energy per molecule rather than the distribution of energies of molecules in the gas, though I see some this has now been deleted, so that is progress.

The biggest issue is the idea that energy from FF is special and cant escape to space. So a surface heated by the sun will irradiate to space, but a surface heated same temperature by oil or coal will not? This does not make sense,

"Initially all the energy enters the atmosphere." Huh?? and subsequent paragraphs mean that assume the energy enters the atmosphere only by increased kinetic energy of gases. Maybe your "initially" is misunderstood. When I am in thermal power station (where I have spent rather a lot of time), a rather useful amount of the energy from FF go into electricity though it will eventually get converted. Some heats the air and goes up the chimney but most is lost to environment via the cooling tower into water. And, boy to some parts of the plant irradiate IR!!!

I fail to see what is so special about these energy conversions that prevent the loss to space?

Eclectic at 09:07 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner @177 ,

it would be better to consider the "crunch question" in the context of :-

Energy is energy ~ so we can say (in a sense) kinetic energy and photonic energy are two sides of the same coin.

The atmosphere gains photonic and kinetic [what you have called sensible heat] energy from the ocean & land, and also partly from the radiation from the sun (plus a tiny amount of kinetic energy from the impact of solar wind particles).

The atmosphere loses energy by (A) tranferring kinetic and photonic energy to the ocean & land, and (B) radiating IR photons to outer space. Of course, kinetic energy cannot be lost to space, since the air molecules are gravitationally bound to Earth. However, because kinetic & photonic energy forms are continuously & rapidly interchangeable, the result is in effect that all atmospheric energy is available for radiation to outer space. It's all a matter of time and flow rate [flux].

Therefore the atmosphere remains in a steady state of thermal equilibrium with its geothermal & human-industrial & solar input, being balanced by atmospheric radiational heat loss (excepting the small - but very important - temperature rise deriving from the newly-added greenhouse gasses in the modern era: in other words, from AGW ).

nigelj at 08:23 AM on 5 March 2019

Next self-paced run of Denial101x starts on March 5

Most of the logical fallacies typically used by science deniers look like sophisticated forms of lying. Strawmen, cherrypicking, out of context statements, fake experts...

Aspiring politicians should be made to study these logical fallacies before they are allowed to enter politics.

AEBanner at 07:08 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

Eclectic @ 176

Thank you very much for your very welcome post. It is good to see things their true perspective. In principle, I agree with most of what you say, with possibly a few reservations.

The whole subject is extremely complicated, and for that reason I have been thinking that a study using statistical mechanics would be really helpful. But I realise that this would be long and tedious, and I cannot realistically hope that anyone might volunteer to take it on.

So, I shall probably have to learn a lot more about the matter myself. It will not be statistical mechanics, but hopefully I might gain sufficient insight. I should be grateful if you could please point me to some relevant sources, if this is not asking too much.

I suppose the crunch question is what proportion of an amount of energy entering the atmosphere as kinetic energy remains in the atmosphere, and where does the “lost” energy go to?

Thanks again
AEBanner

Philippe Chantreau at 05:59 AM on 5 March 2019

Welcome to Skeptical Science

Crobbin58, coal is not only well known to be fossilized peat swamps types of layers but, if sliced thin enough, will reveal the cells of algae, fungi and other organisms. Depending on when it formed the coal will contain spores (more ancient) or pollen (after the rise of angiosperms). It is as fossil a carbon containing fuel as it gets, there is no controversy about it.

As for oil, there has been hypotheses put forth by proponents of abiogenic oil but no significant quantity of oil that could be identified as abiogenic has ever been found. Petroleum geologists know how to find oil, and a major tool is biostratigraphic correlation. The weight of the evidence does not support the idea that any large amount of oil can be created in abiotic fashion.

The statement "hydrocarbons are now considered to be naturally produced by chemical reactions under high pressures and temperatures inside the earth and not by decay of plants and animals" is false. It is entirely false for coal, and the consensus among petroleum geologist is overwhelmingly in favor of biogenic oil, because of the ways they can find it. The vey fact that we are quite good at finding oil, coal and many other products of geologic activity is proof that we are not "intellectually incompetent" to imagine what has happened.

Eclectic at 05:32 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner ,

in recent days, this thread has developed the nightmarish sensation where one feels to be . . . frantically running on the spot.

Unfortunately, this sensation is not a rare occurrence in the comments columns here at SkS. I am not talking about run-of-the-mill science denial by "skeptics" [pseudo-skeptics].

The problem usually arises when the Irresistible Argument meets the Idee Fixe. Sadly, each side feels it possesses the Irresistible logic. Often the situation is a compound of a severe semantic incompatiblilty (unrecognised by the proponent) . . . and a fundamental misconception of the nature of the physical universe.

Regarding the latter, would you [AEBanner] agree with the idea that "energy is energy" ~ and that, in our atmosphere, energy in the form of radiation [photons] does readily & rapidly change into sensible heat [molecular kinetic energy] and readily & rapidly also reverse that change?

(In fact, this conversion back and forth does happen many times per second. For example, an Infra-Red photon may travel less than a metre before it is reabsorbed by another H2O (or CO2) molecule.)

And that the gasseous molecules' translational kinetic energy exists over a broad distributional spectrum ~ at any one instant, a molecule may travel at a sedate 1 m/sec and yet a nanosecond later it has been knocked up to a decent fraction of the speed of light, and might also possess an intra-molecular vibrational energy far exceeding an IR photonic energy quantum equivalent.

One Planet Only Forever at 04:40 AM on 5 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

nigelj,

I share your concern about unsustainable and potentially harmful social 'over-corrections'. But I also extend that concern to harmful environmental over-corrections like opposition to any and all GMO.

The corrections to achieve the identified minimization of harm done to future generations, 2.0C maximum impact, could negatively impact the already less fortunate. Helpful responsible leadership cannot allow that to happen. The problem is the power, popularity and profitability of irresponsible harmful leadership.

The perceptions of prosperity and reduction of poverty that were developed by the harmful unsustainable burning of fossil fuels are now very likely to be unable to be maintained. More effective action to limit climate impacts starting 30 years ago might have created sustainable perceptions of prosperity today along with less harm done to date. But what is done is done. What will be done is what can be changed - by improving awareness and understanding of what is helpful and what is harmful and that the future of humanity is what really has to matter most (we would be experiencing a better present day if resistance to correction of harmful unsustainable developments had not been as successful as it has been).

A simple but determined focus on improving awareness and understanding and application of that knowledge to help develop sustainable improvements for all of humanity (act locally in ways that help develop sustainable improvements, and act nationally to help the global future of humanity - do no harm to Others), can help avoid being dragged into pointless 'political compromising debate' or 'religious belief conflict' regarding the corrections identified as required by improving awareness and understanding (and not just regarding climate science, though climate science is a very powerful case related to that point).

I still expect to encounter people who will resist being helpfully corrected. But they will have little ability to provide defensible reasoned arguments against the Helpfulness requirement. I can ask anyone who disagrees to help me improve my understanding of that governing objective of helpfulness to the future of humanity. I have yet to have anyone present any defensible improvement that helps them maintain the preferred beliefs that they resist correcting. What they present usually leads to more opportunity to improve their awareness and understanding, being able to point out that their suggested 'improvement' is actually contradicted by observable evidence. A common point is that the socioeconomic-political systems that humans have developed in the supposedly more advanced nations have not only created many serious harmful problems, they have developed significant resistance to correction of the problems because of a lack of responsible effective helpful governance of the pursuits of status/impressions (popularity and profit).

The Universal Living Wage is just a different name for Work for Welfare. It that more correctly identifies the potential for work for welfare programs to be harmful to the people they are claimed to be 'helping'. Political leaders who do not like the idea of a Universal Living Wage also dislike the idea of the more fortunate 'having' to help the less fortunate (often claiming that everyone 'having the opportunity to live better' is all that is needed).

A Universal Living Wage can be understood to be an improved awareness and understanding of what a Social Safety-net should be. The socioeconomic-political system can be free to be set up any way people want it to be. The only catch is that the more fortunate 'have' to act helpfully to ensure that everyone experiences at least a basic decent living (claiming that everyone has 'a chance to live better' does not meet that requirement). Anyone interested in a more rewarding life can compete to be more helpful at developing sustainable improvements for the future of humanity. Almost everyone can understand the importance of being more helpful.

People who choose to not be helpful (including those among the less fortunate), and especially the ones choosing to be harmful impediments to the improving awareness and understanding of how to be helpful, should not be rewarded. They should be kept from having any significant influence on others until their attitude is corrected.

That leads to another basic understanding that can lead to a radical awareness:

Education is about improving awareness and understanding, and it is open to helpful improvement.
Indoctrination develops beliefs that can be understandably incorrect or harmful, and it develops resistance to improved awareness and understanding that would correct it.

The resistance to improving awareness and understanding of Climate Science and the identified corrections of what has been developed is strong in many supposedly more advanced nations. That resistance could be because of resistance to giving up developed perceptions of status relative to others. But the differences of behaviour among the leadership of the more developed nations could also indicate nations where Harmful Indoctrination has been more dominant than Helpful Education.

That raises the radical possibility that the USA is a nation that has been more powerfully incorrectly Indoctrinating portions of its population than China has through the past 30 years, if national response to understanding the climate science issue is an indication of Education vs. Indoctrination (note that Chinese society also has a high 'authority' value component).

There are of course, many cases where current Chinese society lacks advancement towards sustainable development, such as the lack of a welfare program - a big gap from the understanding of the need for every person to be helped to live a basic decent life. Tragically, some in the USA (and almost all of the small government proponents world-wide), think that a good way to compete with nations like China is to regress to their level of social safety-net (or other leadership actions), rather than Be Better (more helpful - less harmful) than they are and push for them, encourage them, to Be Better (more helpful - less harmful).

AEBanner at 04:03 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes global warming
michael sweet @174

Thank you for your comments. It seems that I was unable to help you.

Sorry about that.

michael sweet at 03:54 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner,

You contradict yourself. You have claimed that sensible heat emitted by humans accumulates in the atmosphere. Yet you now claim that sensible heat from volcanoes is emitted to space as radient energy. A contradictory argument can automatically be dismissed.

You cannot have it both ways. If human heat accumulates than volcano heat must also accumulate. If volcano heat is emitted to space than human heat must also be emitted. Since the volcano heat is so much greater it is the dominant effect.

Scientists have shown that waste heat is emitted to space in the year that it was created. It does not accumulate from year to year as you claim. It is interesting that the integrated amount of waste heat is the same order of magnitude as thje increased heat in the atmosphere, but we already knew that: it has been previously discussed here at Skeptical Science.

I taught introductory college chemistry, including black body radiation, for 10 years. It is clear from your posts that you have no idea how black body radiation works. Your calculations up thread demonstrate that to anyone who understands radiation.

AEBanner at 02:24 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes global warming

I should be very pleased to hear privately from anyone interested in this topic by e-mail at eddiebanner@outlook.com

AEBanner

AEBanner at 02:03 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes Global Warming

michael sweet @169

Thank you for your new post. I’m sorry you believe I have not answered your questions about volcanoes. I thought I did quite well.

However, if you wish, I shall be happy to try again. But this may incur some repetition in parts, for the sake of clarity and continuity.

I feel sure you agree with my opening remarks in my initial response to you @167.
And I do, in fact, know what “black body” radiation is about.
But in my reply to you @167, I did not bring up the figures of 97% or 3%. So please let me know which of my posts you are concerned about. It would seem to be additional to your initial post. OK, no problem.

Anyway, back to the volcanoes. As far as I know, the output from a volcano consists of hot lava, hot material particles, and much heat energy in the form of sensible heat, that is kinetic energy. And, of course, the adjacent land area will also be raised in temperature.

But the important thing here is that the oceans, being liquid, will also radiate, eventually to space, and this will proceed to maintain a satisfactory balance. Yes, the volcano emissions started billions of years ago, but so did the balancing radiation, so maintaining a satisfactory temperature for the Earth’s surface, and not boiling away the oceans.

Please let me know if I have not covered some matter you are concerned about.

MA Rodger at 01:11 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner @170.

Why would anybody expect a discussion of something not set out here at SkS that is non-published-&-still-being-amended. If your derivations and results are "excellent" & "intriguing", then bring them here for discussion!!! Of course, you will not be able to amend what you write about them, but that is a good thing, an honest thing.

So bring it here or be gone yourself. And if you do remain, I will not let off correcting your comments while they continue here.

As for Statistical Mechanics, the criticism was not in appealing for expertise in such a field, but that beforehand you bizarrely tried to suggest that an average kinetic energy of a gas molecule (a statistical quantity representing a measure of the total kinetic energy of each molecule) was different from the total kinetic energy of a gas molecule (which of course will vary from molecule to molecule).

AEBanner at 00:39 AM on 5 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes Global Warming

MA Rodger @ 166

Thank you again for a confused post, but I was saddened to find that you do not seem to have read my post on wordpress. I deduce this from your statement
Quote “[NOTE - you may set this out on your web-page but if it is not set out here I am ignoring it. “ End quote.
Please tell me that you have indeed read my blog.
If you have not yet read it, then please grant me the courtesy and agree to read it.
This is the link to assist you.
https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/154908990/posts/50

You may find the derivation and the excellent results intriguing.

Another point, your quote 2. What is your problem with asking for help with a truly difficult task, such as the need for assistance with Statistical Mechanics, which is where we got to in our recent posts. Such a study could well resolve any difficulties.
I really hope this could be achieved, whatever the outcome.

Anyway, if you cannot bring yourself carefully to read my blog, then I see no further point in debating the issues with you. Please let me know your decision.

Moderator Response:

[DB] Inflammatory snipped.

Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit inflammatory or off-topic posts and simply avoid answering questions put to them. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.

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Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

michael sweet at 22:12 PM on 4 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner,

Your answer does not begin to answer my question.

You claim in your answer the "sensible heat" from volcanoes goes into the ocean. You do not say what fraction of the heat that is. Obviously the same fraction of volcanic "sensible heat" has to stay in the atmosphere as the fraction of human waste heat. The ocean has no way to determine what heat is volcanic and what is human waste heat.

Let me presume that 97% of the heat goes into the ocean while 3% remains in the atmosphere. 97% of volcanic heat is still much more than the waste heat humans release. In addition, you do not count the 3% remaining in the atmosphere when you make your calculation of accumulated waste heat. If you count this heat in your calculation it will make the temperature go up way too much.

If 97% of the volcanic heat went into the ocean for 4 billion years (we can neglect that 4 billion years ago the volcanic heat was much higher) and accumulated there as you claim the ocean would have boiled away. Obviously that has not happened.

Please explain why all the accumulated heat has not boiled away the ocean.

Obviously the "sensible heat" from volcanoes has gone somewhere. Scientists say that it has radiated out into space from black body radiation with the rest of the energy, including the "sensible heat" that humans have released. I have shown that it cannot accumulate in the ocean as you said. Where do you now say it goes????

A word from an old chemistry teacher: when you do not understand what black body radiation is you cannot discuss the Earth's energy balance intelligently.

AEBanner at 21:30 PM on 4 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes Global Warming

scaddenp @162

I think the post by MA Rodger @163 and my post @167 answer your points adequately.

Of course, energy fluxes must balance where possible, as with energy from the Sun.
But, if additional energy enters the system and cannot be radiated away, then the temperature will increase.

AEBanner at 21:03 PM on 4 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy causes Global Warming

michael sweet @218 Big Picture

Volcanoes; yes, very interesting.
But first I wish to make a distinction between sensible heat and radiant heat. Sure they are both forms of heat energy, but they need to be considered differently in the Earth’s system.

Sensible heat is the energy of the molecules in a gas due to their motion; that is their kinetic energy.
Radiant heat is the energy of an emitted electromagnetic photon. In general, this energy is greater than the kinetic energy of a moving molecule.

Radiant energy is due to the vibrations of the atoms and molecules in a solid and a liquid. The so-called “black body” radiation.
The nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the atmosphere do not vibrate, and so they cannot emit radiation. The GHGs, of course, can absorb and thence re-emit photons of infrared energy.

The energy given out by a volcano consists partly of the sensible heat of the gases, and partly radiant energy from the hot lava and adjacent land surfaces, and the hot material particles also ejected. So, the radiant energy can, indeed, be emitted to space.

The sensible heat energy goes mainly into the oceans, as we can see from the Figure 5.4 taken from the IPCC AR4 report and conveniently reproduced for us by MA Rodger in his post @215 Big Picture. Once in the oceans, the energy can then be radiated away to space.

I hope this answers your question satisfactorily.

MA Rodger at 20:16 PM on 4 March 2019

It's waste heat

AEBanner @165.

Running through the difficulties your grand theory has to dodge.

QUOTE 1

If we were to divide up the global warming and allocate it to a source (as you do) - 11% to FF/Nuclear, 31% geothermal, 58% "presumably" the Sun - we are left with a highly unsatisfactory outcome. Firstly, this 11% value is a shift from your initial position which (@207 of a different thread) was suggesting that the FF/Nuclear input was "enough to explain the measured warming of the Earth's atmosphere." This is not saying four-times the measured atmospheric warming which is what you set out now. Secondly, where does this 11% value come from? Are you assuming the 159Zj of total global warming 1961-2003 set out in IPCC AR4 Fig 5.4 comes to something like 0.27Wm^-2 and the FF/Nuclear flux is calculated as some 0.03Wm^-2? [NOTE - you may set this out on your web-page but if it is not set out here I am ignoring it. Your web-page is being 'corrected' so is not a 'published' source.] Thirdly, the geothermal energy flux is constant over time. Were this responsible for 31% of AGW which is running at 0.2ºC per decade, we would expect to have seen a 0.6ºC increase in global temperature over the past century and the century before that; indeed a 6ºC rise over the last millenium. Such a rise has not happened. Fourthly, IPCC AR4 Fig 5.4 provides values for the period 1993-2003 (0.55WM^-2) which are twice the rate of warming of the earlier period implying the earlier period averaged 0.14Wm^-2, a four-fold difference between the two periods. How can this be if the largest but 'presumed' energy flux in this grand theory was solar energy which has been declining over the period. Fifthly, if these energy fluxes from FF/Nuclear, Geo, Solar arrive within the global system and have no effect on the energy fluxes exiting the global system thus warming the global system, the energy accumulated then lost through the 11-years solar cycles would be an interesting and measureable test of your system as it is rather large. Where is this energy fluctuation?

QUOTE 2

You don't seem to realise that the kinetic energy of a molecule within an gas is not fixed. There is a large distribution of velocities (& differing masses) as the whole bishes and bashes iteself within the volume. And there are lots and lots of molecules and lots and lots of collosions, that relative to the number of photons emitted. You do seem to arrive at some of this learning yourself as you begin by misinterpreting the word "average" and end by asking for help in Statistical Mechanics.

QUOTE 3

Firstly, you misinterpret the mechanism by which an IR photon escapes the planet, this a matter of "standard physics." You are assuming that a CO2 molecule that captures such an IR photon will then wiggle for a while before shooting the IR photon away in some unspecified direction, this allowing an upward migration of IR photons up and out of the atmosphere. If this were true, the origin of the IR photons should be considered, so see the second point below. While essentially the process results in an outcome not greatly dissimilar to it being true, the "standard physics" says it isn't true. While a CO2 molecule will take on average tenths of a second to emit a photon from its excited state, such a molecule is in collisions in milliseconds. As the excited state is a mechanical wobble, a collision will interfere with the wobble and the energy is almost always (given the large number of collisions) absorbed by the air. The photon is emited by subsequent collision-induced excited states which are many more than photn-induced excited states. Secondly, you misinterpret yourself!! If the 15 micron IR photons do not originate from air but are simply transmitted through the air abet with CO2-redirections: if this were true, where do these photons originate from and where do they end up? If the atmosphere is a neutral transmitter, the origin must be the planet surface. And the destination must either be back to the planet surface or outer space. If the former were to increase, less photons escaping into space, this will of course result in an increase in temperature and thus an increase in photons launched up into the atmosphere. Golly, have we just stumbled upon a wrming planet and way of cooling down the warming? How does that impact your grand theory which has no such mechanism?

crobbins58 at 18:28 PM on 4 March 2019

Welcome to Skeptical Science

Thermodynamics appears to be the basic truth. The inherent increase in entropy in any closed system (cycle?) predicts the eventual end point of everything, as well as each step, along the way to the end of everything.

Let us be content to work together and solve a simple problem as opposed to trying to solve something we cannot solve as evidenced by the many posts herewith.

AEBanner at 18:14 PM on 4 March 2019

It's waste heat

Energy can cause Global Warming

As we have relocated to a new thread, I think it might be helpful for possible new readers if I were to mention again my wordpress post at
https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/154908990/posts/50

MA Rodger @217 Big Picture

Thank you again for your recent post, but I am afraid I’m rather puzzled about some of your questions.
Quote 1. “If the 97% of the warming that didn’t end up in the atmosphere didn’t result from the AGW, what was the cause of it?” End quote.
I cannot quite see what you are getting at here. But my best assessment is that, for the period 1961 to 2003, 31% of the increase in global heat content came from geothermal sources, 11% from anthropogenic energy and the remaining 58% presumably from the Sun. But this is puzzling, because for Earth’s energy balance, the energy received from the Sun is equalled by the energy radiated back to space.
Quote 2. “And happily your numbers are not inaccurate within your grand theory that CO2 at 288K cannot emit photons at 15 microns because the energy of such a photon is roughly twice the average kinetic energy of a molecule in such a gas. But do remind me - what is the minimum number of gas molecules you require to create a collision? There is further consideration of the statistical profile of molecule velocity and the other means such molecules have of holding energy.” End quote.
Firstly, I should like to clarify this point about the kinetic energy of a molecule at 288 K. It is not the average kinetic energy, whatever that means here, but the total kinetic energy of the molecule. In other words, even if the colliding molecule could somehow give up all its energy to the GHG, it would still be less than half that required to enable a subsequent photon.
I think the answer to your question is probably 2, but the probability of an instantaneous collision involving more than 2 is very small, in view of the extremely short times taken. Subsequent collisions would have the same problem.
However, a proper study with statistical mechanics is really needed on this matter. Please, is there a reader out there who would be prepared to consider doing this?
Quote 3. “Simply put, to refute the existence of 15 micron IR being radiated by CO2 in the atmosphere is to popishly refute a whole pile of very straightforward physics. The IR can be measured.” End quote.
I’m afraid you have totally misunderstood my position on this. I have never denied the ability of carbon dioxide, or any other greenhouse gas, to emit infrared photons. As you say, this is straightforward physics. A more careful reading of my posts should make this very clear.
What I am questioning is the probability of CO2 to be raised to the required excited state by simple collision with other molecules in the atmosphere. The GHG theory does not require this; it relies on absorption of photons of the matching energy. Yes, standard physics.
Please do not misrepresent my ideas and statements.

crobbins58 at 18:03 PM on 4 March 2019

Welcome to Skeptical Science

Using the abbreviation"FF" is confusing. It could be forest fires or fossil fuel.

Fossil fuel is also confusing since hydrocarbons are now considered to be naturally produced by chemical reactions under high pressures and temperatures inside the earth and not by decay of plants and animals. Hydrocarbons would then be renewable.

Except for transmutation and arrivals from space, we are a closed system. Many processes interact, emerge, and disappear over time. We are intellectually incompetent to imagine what might happen or actually did happen. We would be advised to not do anything lest we make everything worse which is the only history we actually know.

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