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Blessthefall at 23:43 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@tobyjoyce: I stated that both sides receive money and both sides are fueled by politics. Pointing out that Hansen and "libertarian" think tanks receive money from this or that organization only proves my point. Moreover, saying that it was "probably spent on lab equipment, salaries, etc." is akin to shrugging your shoulders: we'll never know what that money was spent on, but we do know that Hansen received money from a politically connected organization. @Riccardo: Bias exists in the scientific community. Not only in climate science, but in psychological science, biological science, and so forth. That "single scientist bias" is actually representative of the whole scientific community, regardless if someone is pointing out the bias. Impartial science is impossible and we're going to see bias on both sides of the argument. My point, which was eventually backed up by tobyjoyce, shows that climate science is not impartial. Whether some of these scientists are trying to be biased or hiding it is irrelevant. @Berényi Péter: I pointed out the exact same thing with a rather scathing response, but my post was deleted. I think anyone who wants to inject politics into the science (both of which I've shown to be inseparable - at least in the US) on this website can now do so because this guest post violates the comment policy and violates Skeptical Science's choice of "taking the politics out of the science." Mr. Cook, I'd like to know why my first post was deleted when others are saying the exact same thing I am and their posts are not getting deleted.Response: Early in these threads, I try to keep the discussion focused on science and adhering to the comments policies. I deleted comments from both sides (lately, it seems I've been deleting more "pro-AGW" comments than skeptic ones, particularly on the Monckton thread where people just couldn't help themselves.
Unfortunately sometimes the discussion degrades to the point where I just have to wash my hands of it - I only have limited hours in the day to get stuff done - and hope that discussion will move onto a more fruitful topic on the next post.
I wish I could give a more satisfying answer but at this point, I'm not particularly impressed by comments from both sides and would sit down and shred much of this whole thread if I could spare the time. -
theendisfar at 23:31 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@ doug_bostrom 18 "You're simply wrong." Sorry, you won't convince a nonbeliever until he/she can repeat the methods and arrive at the same conclusions. I am most certainly open to persuasion if someone can give me their methods so I can repeat the test. And we don't need 1,000's of Earth to do tests. One simple exercise is to measure the cooling rate of an object in a vacuum, and then measure the cooling rate with 1 ATM of dry air, then add water. This will give us a good idea of the efficiencies of radiative and convective cooling. This will help determine if the models are calibrated correctly. You won't find a more reliable source. If you don't understand the weight this report carries I'm afraid there's really no perfectly kind way of saying you're quite out of your league in making judgments about this topic. Sigh, I'm often amazed that so few today take the time to check things for themselves and leave it up to others. Moody's Investment Ratings is a perfect example. You won't find a more reliable source. They still rate US Bonds as AAA. That's laughable at best and quite sad when you ponder it. Check out http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=5&t=239&&n=76#15225 on occasion. There I will point out exactly how the Greenhouse Effect is only a small piece of the Earth's thermo-system. Let's do the peer-review right here at Skeptical Science, no need to take someone else's word, right? We have scientists here. -
Ned at 23:29 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
John Russell writes: I could add more but perhaps it's best just to ask, do others share my unease? I do. In fact, my first reaction on seeing this new thread was "Oh no...." Clearly, some people would like to discuss "meta" issues, in ways that bring in all kinds of normally shunned topics (politics/ideology, other people's motivations, etc.) I guess my one suggestion or humble request would be that everybody try to keep the politics etc. "quarantined" in this one thread. And if this post attracts a lot of new visitors[1], let's all do our best to gently help them learn the standards that are maintained in the more normal science-centric threads on this site. [1] With the prominent reference to Anthony Watts in the title of this thread, I'm half expecting an influx of new visitors from WUWT-land. -
Marcus at 23:26 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
theendisfar. Well you'd know all about making incorrect conclusions, wouldn't you? So are you *honestly* saying that the Greenhouse Gas theory is wrong, and isn't the cause of our planet being 33 degrees warmer than its Black-Body temperature? As I said above, if you're going to challenge a theory that was established over a century ago-& has been built on via experimentation & observation over the intervening period-you'd better have something better than "well, it's wrong 'cause I just SAY SO"-which is, in effect, what you're doing. What you're also doing is applying extremely *simple* mechanics-like convection & evaporation-to an extremely complex thing like our climate. As to your answer to point (b), the thing is that global temperatures fluctuated between 18 & 24 degrees C over that 400 million year period-largely in line with shifts in CO2 concentrations. If your explanation held true, then the planet would have *only* gotten cooler. As to the 2nd part of your "proof", I could just as easily say that the reason Earth has been locked in ice over these time periods-in spite of a warmer sun-is that, compared to the pre-Quaternary era-Planet Earth is relatively CO2 constrained. That the coldest parts of Earth's history coincide with the lowest levels of CO2 in its history are surely not a coincidence, & highlight how much more important these gases are than incoming solar radiation (within reason) in government average temperatures. Similarly with your answer to (c). Long-term studies of past climate & sunspot proxies have shown an *extremely* close correlation-with the exception of the last 30-60 years, when CO2 emissions have been rising. Again, coincidence? Sounds to me like you're the one trying to spread red herrings around Theendisfar. Like I said before, there is plenty of empirical evidence out there for the Greenhouse Effect-& the enhanced Greenhouse Effect. When you can provide proof to rebut this evidence, then you might have some credibility. At the moment, though, you have precious little. -
Marcus at 23:14 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
"Anyway. If one thinks carbon dioxide is dangerous, the rational track to take is to promote nuclear energy. This is the only technology mature enough to supply all the electric power needed by the economy right now." Absolute rubbish Berenyi-given the CO2 intensity of the nuclear energy cycle-not to mention such issues as Waste Disposal, weapons proliferation & uranium being yet another *non-renewable resource*. This last part is most important. Best estimates suggest that uranium reserves will last 100 years *at current levels of use*. We'd need to *triple* total nuclear capacity just to reduce global CO2 emissions by 15%. How long do you *really* think that can be sustained? Meanwhile, far greater reductions in CO2 emissions can be achieved simply in how we *use* electricity & gasoline-even before we get to the question of using renewable fuels. Beyond efficiency, bio-sequestration (algae) offers a significantly cheaper alternative to nuclear as a means of significantly reducing the CO2 output of existing fossil-fuel power stations, as well as being an excellent source of oil &/or gas. Additionally, landfill & sewerage gas are extremely useful *distributed* sources of electricity & heat which would also be less costly to tap than nuclear, & without the by-products. Then you have such mature technologies such as PV's; wind power coupled with vanadium flow batteries (to smooth out supply); Solar Thermal Power with long-term heat storage; Geothermal Power, Micro & Mini-Hydro Power; Tidal Power-& rapidly up & coming power sources based on osmotic potential. What's particularly amazing is that the bulk of these technologies achieved maturity with only a *fraction* of the funding enjoyed by coal & nuclear power over the last 50 years. So in a nutshell-*no* an acceptance of the danger of CO2 induced global warming does not immediately suggest an automatic support for nuclear power. That sounds more like a product of lazy thinking-designed to enrich just another already wealthy member of the corporate community. -
dhogaza at 23:11 PM on 3 June 2010Abraham shows Monckton wrong on Arctic sea ice
However, the point I'm making is that we still don't have a gold standard way of measuring what the ice is doing. Consequently, different algorithms give divergent results. We don't know what the trend would have been had the JAXA algorithm been available thirty years ago. I assume the likely answer would be 'more extensive ice' but in reality we don't know.
JAXA and NSIDC show similar trends, I don't get why you think they're significantly different. Similar trends with different algorithms applied to data from different sensors. A "divergent result" would be a significantly different trend, and this simply isn't the case. Area calculations by the cryosphere today people show a similar trend. And there's evidence that if anything the satellite sensors overestimate ice when it has broken up. If you believe that what we're seeing is an artifact of poor or reliable instrumentation, you're living in fantasy land. Those were real ships sailing the northeast passage last summer, encountering exactly the kind of ice conditions reported by the various satellite data processing groups. -
theendisfar at 23:04 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@ Marcus 14 "If you're going to keep banging on about Convection & Evaporation as being major obstacles to AGW, then it is beholden upon you to provide the EVIDENCE-preferably in the form of peer-reviewed scientific journals." Forgive me doubting Peer-Review, especially today. We can easily get around Peer-Review with repeatable tests can we not? The common argument here that Peer-Review is necessary only tells me that there are no scientists here to think and answer for themselves. John is a physicist, but cannot answer questions? Heck, a well defined AGW Theory would help greatly. In any event, I was pointed to http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=5&t=239&&n=76#15225 in order to carry on the conversation about CO2. For your questions; (a) that in spite of having a black-body temperature of -18 degrees C, the planet has been around +8 to +15 degrees C for the better part of 80 million years; Do you mean in spite of having a BBT of 18 C today? The Earth's average temp is 14 or 15 C, where do you get 18 C? Regardless, when you average all the known temps of a vast thermo-system you end up knowing far less about the behavior of the thermo-system. For example, a body that is uniform in temperature will cool more slowly than one with a varied surface, where convection is available, because convective currents are more efficient over varied surfaces. (b) in spite of the sun being cooler 500 million to 1 billion years ago, the planet was around 6 to 8 degrees *warmer* than in modern times. The main difference back then there was 5 to 10 times more CO2 in our atmosphere; We know that the Earth saw an increase in cooling once the North and South American plates joined and the Himalaya formation also seems to have adjusted to the jet stream to carry polar air masses deep into the temperate zones. Don't forget that the Moon was also much closer so tidal energies were also higher, days were shorter, many variables were different. Also, in spite of the Sun being warmer than 500 million years ago, much of the Earth has been locked in Ice for the better part of the 5 million years with only brief, 25 thousand years or so, periods of interglacial. (c) in spite of 30 years of declining sun-spot activity, the planet has warmed at a rate of 0.16 degrees per decade Sun Spot numbers, TSI, and amount of Radiation reaching the Earth's surface are all different things, though correlations can be made. The correlations are not well defined and again using terms like 'despite' for single phenomena to explain highly complex systems can only lead to false conclusions. Now, if all your claims about Convection & Evaporation were correct, then neither (a), (b) nor (c) could hold true. See above. -
solarsparky at 22:57 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Re 3;"If everyone bought an electric car, as did Anthony Watts, the grid would be quickly overwhelmed." Not true, an elegant solution to turn electric cars into distributed power can be found at 'better place', this company is rolling out demo site's world wide. IMHO electric cars may be the just best thing to happen to "smart grids'enabling storage of intemittent renewable inputs, -
Berényi Péter at 22:56 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
#43 JMurphy at 20:46 PM on 3 June, 2010 I assume that any ranting will continue to be (quite rightly) deleted I thought so. However, trying to define ranting in this context brings us to a slippery slope. It reminds me under communist rule here friendly criticism was always encouraged. It was just the opposite with hostile criticism. Had it been done in public, the punishment was immediate and severe. Sometimes even in private it turned out to be a grave mistake. However, in practice there had to be no difference between the to types of criticism whatsoever to find yourself in either category. Rules were constantly made up and redefined by those in power and there was no way to know them in advance. This ambiguity used to belong to the very nature of the System. There are twenty two occurrences of expressions like "denial", "denialism", "denialist", "denier" or "deny" under this post so far. If it is not ranting, I don't know what the current rules are supposed to be. Anyway. If one thinks carbon dioxide is dangerous, the rational track to take is to promote nuclear energy. This is the only technology mature enough to supply all the electric power needed by the economy right now. So much so, that AGW scare machine must have Big Nuke in the background. With a somewhat hesitant Big Oil on its side, united against Big Coal, of course. One should not forget that hydrocarbons can produce about twice as much energy for the same CO2 output as coal. http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/03/is-nuclear-power-renewable/ -
CBDunkerson at 22:47 PM on 3 June 2010Abraham shows Monckton wrong on Arctic sea ice
New study just out which says that sediment analysis suggests current Arctic sea ice levels are the lowest in at least the past few thousand years. Study - fee site News article -
Marcus at 22:26 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
The way I see it there are ultimately only two possibilities: (1) In spite of extensive evidence to the contrary, AGW will prove to be a myth-or won't be as bad as they're saying or (2) The evidence is correct, & AGW is occurring & will be as bad-if not worse-than what they're saying. So lets say (1) is true, but we still adopt a precautionary approach: & start implementing much greater efficiency in our economy, & switching to energy sources which are cleaner, renewable & more easily tunable to changes in the demand cycle. What's the outcome? The initial outlays will probably be high, but the mid-to-long term outcome will almost certainly be cleaner air, soil & water; a shift in employment to areas less dependent on fluctuations in commodity prices; reduced dependence on unstable countries for our vital resources & more money in our pockets due to reduced energy & fuel costs. So we benefit even *if* AGW proves to be fantasy. So now lets say (2) is true, but we adopt a "business as usual" approach. Well on top of all the costs associated with adapting to rapidly changing climate, we'll also face increasing levels of more "mundane" pollution from the pursuit & consumption of fossil fuels, as well as ever rising costs as these resources become increasingly depleted-not to mention the increasing dangers from the unstable nations that supply us with these resources. In a world of both climate change & peak oil, the only big question is which resource will we be prepared to kill more people over-fresh water or oil? I believe that what I've outlined is a variant of Pascal's Wager-namely "I don't know if God does-or does not-exist; however, I lose nothing from behaving as if I believe in him, even if he doesn't; but stand to lose everything by behaving as if I don't believe in him, only to find out he *does* exist. -
Marcus at 22:12 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
"A simple explanation to why almost all scientific reports are in the upper right quadrant, is that that's where the money is, and that's where you have to be to get your report published. Those who are not AGW believers become outcasts." Yet another post which shows a total lack of knowledge about how science *actually* works. The real money-& fame-has always actually been in finding something completely new/cutting edge & separating yourself from the crowd-as long as your *new* theory is backed by *evidence*. About 40-50 years ago, it was Anthropogenic Global Warming that was the new theory on the block, & it was one which has had to fight *very* hard to be accepted in the scientific mainstream-in spite of its excellent pedigree (the natural Greenhouse Effect, which had been identified by scientists more than a century earlier). Indeed, AGW theory had to fight a great deal of hostility from both within & without the scientific community. However wheras most theories, once they accumulate sufficient evidence to back them, no longer have to keep fighting quite so hard for acceptance (like Relativity & Evolution) for some reason AGW endures more resistance the more evidence that accumulates in its favor. Also, Argus, if you want to know where the *real* money is in science, its in Geology-mostly that associated with mining & oil exploration. Strangely enough, this is also where AGW's most vociferous critics reside too. Coincidence? -
CBDunkerson at 21:24 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
While I understand the fear, I don't think it is accurate that the dynamics examined in this article will continue ad infinitum. Unlike the people who dispute evolution, claim the Earth is only a few thousand years old, insist that the ozone hole and/or acid rain don't exist, still believe that asbestos/DDT/tobacco are harmless, or trust that complete deregulation and totally free markets are always good for people and the economy... despite all the incontrovertible proof to the contrary... global warming is something which they will personally witness the impacts of. People can delude themselves into believing just about anything... but it gets alot harder when it is impacting them personally. The ski enthusiast who finds that the trails in their area are getting worse and worse... the farmer whose land is slowly drying out and dying... the bird lover whose favorite birds have all migrated further north... eventually the changes they see with their own eyes are going to break through the nonsense for most of them. And once it hits a critical mass the fraudsters in politics and media will back away from denial to preserve their 'credibility'. At which point the whole house of cards WILL collapse, because financial interests can't push the lie on their own. That said, I expect we'll see people converting away from fossil fuels BEFORE denialism collapses. Oddly most analyses I've seen compare the current cost of wind and solar power to the current cost of coal and conclude that coal is still cheaper. I say this is odd because it ignores that wind and solar costs are all upfront and thus essentially 'fixed' at the time of construction... while coal costs are ongoing and thus change over time. Sooner or later people are going to start realizing that since the costs of coal and other fossil fuels are increasing (yes, the economic collapse has dropped prices recently, but it won't last) they should really be comparing wind/solar costs to the AVERAGE cost of fossil fuels over the lifetime of the renewable plants... by which standard 'grid parity' has already come and gone. We may have to wait until renewables are cheaper than CURRENT fossil fuels, but even that isn't very far off now. -
kdkd at 21:02 PM on 3 June 2010Robust warming of the global upper ocean
Ken, We've been through this to death elsewhere. You maintain that the global heat balance is well enough understood to supersede all other global warming indicators. I maintain that the global heat balance is one of the least understood parts of the system, and the measurement uncertainties are why it can't be used to discard all the other evidence for AGW. At the end of the day what is required is a consistent story that is scientifically robust. The uncertainties in the global heat balance record that are inconsustent with -
JMurphy at 20:46 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Berényi Péter, the actual 'No politics thingie' states : "Rants about politics, ideology or one world governments will be deleted." I assume that any ranting will continue to be (quite rightly) deleted. -
CBDunkerson at 20:43 PM on 3 June 2010Abraham shows Monckton wrong on Arctic sea ice
HumanityRules #34, odd that I didn't SAY any of the views you talk about me 'favoring'. What I DID say is that we don't have sufficient data about Arctic conditions around the 1930s to support claims that 'it was warmer then than now' and/or that 'ice loss then was comparable to current'. Yes, we work with what we have... and nothing we have supports those claims. Indeed, there is strong evidence that the 30s/40s were nowhere nears as warm as current globally... which would tend to argue against taking the lack of Arctic data as an excuse to assume that region was hotter. We work with what he have. Not with things that somebody just 'made up'. -
Nick Palmer at 20:32 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
37 @Argus "I also think that common people have understood that climate science is debatable: it is not like the basic natural sciences - if it is at all possible to set up a global experiment, it takes 100 years before you see the outcome (and you can only set up one experiment at a time)." That is why we must act now. The empirical validation (the eventual result of our experiment on Planet Earth's climate) of climate science will be with us too late, whether in 10 or 100 years, to do anything about it. The denialist position is insane because they are so sure that nothing will happen that they don't realise that they will be gambling with everybody's future if they are wrong. Oh and BTW Rob Honeycutt, it may be that in the USA it is the liberal "left" wing that is pro AGW and the wingnut right that takes the denialist position but America IS NOT THE WHOLE WORLD. In Europe, the political affiliations vis à vis AGW are much harder to categorise. I would say I have a right wing bias but I'm not stupid and the threat of changes ranging from uncomfortable to catastrophic means that the only prudent course of action is to avoid those scenarios. -
Berényi Péter at 20:21 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Question. This one is clearly a political post. Is the No politics thingie of Comments Policy relaxed here? -
JMurphy at 20:07 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Argus wrote : "A simple explanation to why so many non-scientists are skeptics, is that people tend to side with the underdog. If too many infallible science geeks say exactly the same thing, you tend to listen to those who say the opposite." Does that mean that you are on the side of the Creationists ? Or the 9/11 troofers ? Or the Flat-Earthers ? -
RSVP at 19:56 PM on 3 June 2010Abraham shows Monckton wrong on Arctic sea ice
ubrew12 On your comment about, "...fighting a crusade, of some kind. ".... politically speaking, that would be "the War on Heat". Also, your use of "GW" might be confusing to some. -
J Bowers at 19:48 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
It's really nothing new. Eisntein had the same problem with relativity... “This world is a strange madhouse. Currently, every coachman and every waiter is debating whether relativity theory is correct. Belief in this matter depends on political party affiliation.” -- Albert Einstein, 1920, in a letter to Marcel Grossmann. http://www.jossgarman.com/?p=584 -
John Russell at 19:16 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
While it's valid for Rod Honeycut to address the subject of people's motivation for their climate science views, can I raise the question of whether the Sceptical Science site is the right place for this post? It seems to me that it strays too far into the political arena and too far away from the actual science of climate change. The home page of this site asks about sceptics; "Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?" As far as I can see it doesn't ask, "why do people believe what they do?" I suggest that some of the comments that have appeared so far add to my concern. I could add more but perhaps it's best just to ask, do others share my unease? -
Argus at 18:31 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
A simple explanation to why almost all scientific reports are in the upper right quadrant, is that that's where the money is, and that's where you have to be to get your report published. Those who are not AGW believers become outcasts. Also, many scientists in other fields have testified that it helps you a lot if you put something about AGW and climate in your report (and vice versa), even if it has little or nothing to do with your research. A simple explanation to why so many non-scientists are skeptics, is that people tend to side with the underdog. If too many infallible science geeks say exactly the same thing, you tend to listen to those who say the opposite. Especially when there are reasons to get suspicious (embarrassing facts leaking out, grave errors in official reports, etc). I also think that common people have understood that climate science is debatable: it is not like the basic natural sciences - if it is at all possible to set up a global experiment, it takes 100 years before you see the outcome (and you can only set up one experiment at a time). -
Riccardo at 18:02 PM on 3 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
theendisfar, the first paper I can remember where moist convection has been included in a climate model dates back to 1964: Manabe, S., and R.F. Strickler, 1964: Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a convective adjustment. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 21, 361–365. And be sure that the problem was known well before 1964. You're a little late with this breaking news on convection. -
Riccardo at 17:45 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Blessthefall your logic utterly fails when you extrapolate the eventual single scientist bias to the whole community. Indeed, the bias is random and the other scientists will be happy to find and point out his errors. Anyone who is familiar with the scientific community knows this. -
tobyjoyce at 17:37 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@Blessthe fall, I checked the figure & James Hansen got $250,000 from the Heinz Foundation. Correction, his institution got it. It was probably spent on labs, travel, post-doc salaries and graduate researchers. In the scheme of running a large science department, it was almost peanuts. All of which expenditure is subject to audit. Are you suggesting that Hansen pocketed the money or blew it in Vegas? Contrast that to the $25,000,000 spent by Koch Industries in 5 years on "Libertarian" think tanks writing papers against climate change. Add to that the money spent by Exxon Mobil and other ocmpanies, and you get some idea of where the big bucks are lining up. -
tobyjoyce at 17:28 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Galloping camel has a point. We will get much farther on "enlightened self-interest" than altruism. The number of altruists will always be less than the self-interested. We should honour the altruists, but most of us can only aspire to be like them. However, even the most selfish will recognise the need for change if the case is presented in the light of what it means to the individual. It has often been said that a visiting alien would be amazed at us ripping up the planet to extract fuel when there is a magnificent energy source at the heart of the solar system. It is clear we cannot stop using carbon-based fuels overnight, but a gradual transfer could be made to work. -
Doug Bostrom at 16:42 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
GC, unfortunately most people will misinterpret your EV, causing you to be misidentified as a somebody with a holistic viewpoint. You might want to put a bumpersticker on your car stating "Maxwell Yes, Fourier No!" or something with the general effect of communicating that you're not quite playing with a full physics deck. -
Doug Bostrom at 16:28 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
One item to add to general discussion on improving habits. We work at home, exclusively so in my case. This involves the use of a couple of printers and some other network gear w/an idle consumption of a little over 30 watts, excluding a server and a few other pieces needing to be on 24/7. Separating the bits needing to be on and putting the rest on a timer shutting things down during hours we almost never require print services saves about 90kWh/year. Investment required was about $10USD, so simple payback in about 1.5 years at our rate. A modicum of electrical savings, but why not take it? Just a matter of remembering. -
gallopingcamel at 16:28 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Marcus, I was using compact fluorescents when the only place you could get them was Amway. I did it to save money, not the planet! -
gallopingcamel at 16:20 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
You folks just don't get it. My electric car is so much fun to drive. I just ignore that nonsense about how it might help to reduce "Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming". Thank you Obama for paying almost 70% of what it should have cost me! -
Marcus at 16:18 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
So I guess my point above is that everything I do to reduce my CO2 emissions (commuting & energy efficiency) is actually *saving* me money. Given that, I'm surprised at the number of people who'll still quite happily spend more than they need to-all because someone has convinced them that it will cost *more* to reduce CO2 emissions?!?! -
Marcus at 16:15 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
For my part, I do a great deal to reduce my CO2 footprint. I only use public transport for commuting (which, btw, actually *saves* me money) & at home I use only the most energy efficient light-globes, hot-water service & electrical appliances I can get. I also source 50% of my total energy from Green sources through my electricity company (i.e. I pay a slight premium in order to get them to source electricity from the Green Grid to meet my electricity needs). I rent my property, so installing a solar panel isn't really an option, but when I move into my own house, I certainly intend to have a solar panel & solar hot water system installed, to reduce my CO2 footprint even further. This isn't simply about reducing CO2 emissions-though-its also about conserving non-renewable resources so that we don't run out of them any time soon! -
actually thoughtful at 15:58 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@David Green "Ummm Me but the set up cost are expensive even with govt subsidies , the average person would have to be quite committed to consider it ." Cool that you are there, for the record I am as well, but barely as I have the house handled, but not transportation. The bit about quite committed seems a little extreme - It is a 20 year payback (~25/30 without incentives). Solar thermal at least, being made of copper and glass, has a virtually limitless life. So it can be rolled into a mortgage, or financed via any number of schemes. I stand by the statement that what is missing is the will. Don't forget that these technologies not only save money and pollution, but they literally pay for themselves. So if it costs the same as a new car, or even 2 new cars, but it pays for itself, how can you justify not doing it? I am not downplaying the challenges, rather highlighting the rewards (personal and societal) that make it worth overcoming the (relatively minor) challenges. -
yocta at 15:44 PM on 3 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
RE#233 theendisfar You need to cite evidence for your claims or at the very least some physical arguments based on direct observations of gas systems. Your statements do not explain or contribute anything. If we can understand where you are coming from then we can answer your questions. -
Daved Green at 15:34 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@23"How many posters here use any renewable energy? How many can claim over 50% of their personal energy usage (auto, home electric, home heating/cooling) comes from renewable sources?" Ummm Me but the set up cost are expensive even with govt subsidies , the average person would have to be quite committed to consider it . -
yocta at 15:26 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
RE#Blessthefall SkepticalScience maintains its strong integrity on the nature of what comments are acceptable.You won't find a site anywhere else that matches SS, for it's patience. Take a read through some of the comments on this other website that lets anyone have their $0.02 "Most of the work done on AGW relies on the data collected and “massaged” by the East Anglia Climate Research Unit." "Michael Mann, Phil Jones and your hero have all LIED about their data and should be in prison. and my personal favourite: What a load of idiocy!! Go to the US DOE website and check out the percentages of the “greenhouse gas effect” that are attributable to various gases. You will see that 95.000% is from water vapour and that 99.999% of the water vapour is naturally occurring. That leaves just 5% for all other gases. Anthropogenic CO2, the largest single man-made contribution, accounts for just 0.117% of the greenhouse gas effect. That proves that the whole thing is nothing but a fraud, folks. Doesn't it concern you that most of the people who are most against climate science have little to no understanding of it, and offer zero constructive criticism? It's easy to say you don't trust the science, much harder to actually contribute to its understanding. -
Marcus at 15:25 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Blessthefall. I can accept *constructive criticism*, but all you give us is a typical anti-intellectual rant about how *bad* scientists are, & how you don't trust them. Yet as someone who works in that area, I can assure you that-in the matter of climate change-the scientists are *far less* biased than the other, truly vested interests in this matter (the fossil fuel industry & its many hangers-on in the mainstream press & political circles). Outside of the Far-Rights weird world of "Scientific Conspiracy Theories", the majority of scientists are people who usually work extremely long hours for very little remuneration. Also, as much as some scientists might have their "pet hypotheses", very few-if any-would be prepared to risk their reputations by clinging to a hypotheses when all the evidence points elsewhere-or be caught deliberately using bad methods to prove their hypothesis correct. Of course, your anti-intellectual views are further highlighted by your opinion that a statement of fact is, in some way, "emotional language". For the record, we are actually experiencing an unprecedented rate of warming-no matter what you might think. What I find laughable is that, though you distrust the motives & results produced by the scientific community, you totally trust the rather pathetic attempts at Green-washing by the oil & coal industries. When they put more money into renewable energy technology than they do into expensive PR campaigns & the payment of anti-AGW lobbyists, then I might believe that they're on the level. -
Philippe Chantreau at 15:24 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
These are poor examples, Blessthefall. "Robust", "never before seen" and record heat are not very moving, as far as "emotional language" goes. "Robust" has a precise meaning. It describes a result that withstand cross-examination or is reached through several independent analyses. It is a proper adjective for such a result and carries no particular emotional charge. "Record heat" is appropriate if it applies to a temperature that is the highest on one given record. There is no other way to call it, except with convolutions aimed at lessening the possible significance of it. "Never before seen" is appropriate if it is factual, i.e. nobody ever saw such thing before. For these examples, the emotional charge has to be added; in and by themselves they do not indicate if the "robust" result is a good thing or a bad thing. Nor do they inform us whether the thing that was never before seen is a good thing or a bad thing. The expert for emotional laguage here is Gallopingcamel, who used to shower us with such words as "horrific", "pestilence" or "terrifying." Unlike yours, these are good examples of emotionally charged language. -
Doug Bostrom at 15:15 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Actually thoughtful that's pretty thoughtful, heh! A lot of our choices are purely habit; we just need to remember that we have options. It took me about a year or so of fussing online about climate-related problems to pause and consider whether I was doing any walking during all my talking. Before then, ever since it was available we've been paying an extra amount on our utility bill to help fund wind generators being installed by our electric provider but that's not viscerally satisfying in the same way as using some square footage on-scene to capture energy. We've gone for DHW and I'm really satisfied with the results here in a location considered challenging because of poor insolation and cheap hydropower. Assuming we can't practically ditch significant air travel for business until general sanity prevails on avoiding pointless meetings, the next major step is the car. I'm attracted to the upcoming Nissan Leaf because it's simple, appealing to somebody like myself who is repelled by complex hybrid transaxles and the like. The Leaf will shortly be a real option in the growing landscape of modernization described by actually thoughtful. Point of all this is not to blow my horn, rather to chime in with actually thoughtful's point that we need to identify things we can do about our concerns and then act lest we end up rather hollow. -
Paul Magnus at 14:57 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
There is sicence in the study of the human condition. A good precidence of what we have with CC is reflected in the Slavery issue. It took a lot of effort to move on to a civilized position on this. And so it will be with GW. Everyone is living a cozy life and the idea that in 90yrs time civilization will have flooded and collapsed is way out of left feild. And you can see why this is so. I follow science quite closely and this issue did not appear on the horizon for me till 2005, when I became concernd about sea level rise coz my house is below sealevel. -
actually thoughtful at 14:47 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@Daisym, I simply disagree with the notion that we don't have solutions now. Watt's very reason for having an electric car and PV panels is so he can say "Even though I don't believe the AGW folks, I am doing as much as anyone and more than most to avoid pollution" (words are mine). So you use either solar thermal or a ground source heat pump for your heating and DHW (pays for itself in less time than you pay for the building - less time than commercial power plants take to reach positive ROI). This covers 75% of your building load (see PV below) You drive an electric car, and you use a grid tied PV system (10kw will power your car and a house, unless your house also contains an electric forge). You are either feeding the grid, or storing energy in your car. Now it isn't perfect. Electric cars have batteries, and batteries don't have a good end game. PV is only a total solution if you use either batteries or grid tied. If everyone is using PV/wind and grid tied then utilities have a storage problem (rumors that only 14% (or any other low number) of energy can come from distributed sources before the grid somehow blows up are completely false - the grid just doesn't care where the electrons come from, and meters at the terminal points). Utilities can solve that storage problem (molten salt, pumping uphill, many other solutions). It is simply a convenient untruth that we don't have the technology. Or that it is "too expensive." We have the solutions (or at least the "buy me a cash-flow positive 30 years" solutions while we get to the next level). We don't have the will. How many posters here use any renewable energy? How many can claim over 50% of their personal energy usage (auto, home electric, home heating/cooling) comes from renewable sources? Apparently the oft vilified Anthony Watts can step up and say "me!" to the above question - can you? -
Doug Bostrom at 14:41 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Sorry to butt in, theendisfar, but "robust" has a specific connotation used in scientific speech. Meanwhile, as for "never before seen" or "record setting" and the like, what would you suggest? "Unprecedented", or some clumsy multi-word construct meaning the same thing? Are you suggesting that we should cripple our use of the English language so as to tiptoe around squeamishness? Don't be silly, please. -
Doug Bostrom at 14:34 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Theendisfar: You are not going to convince a scientist, well a classical scientist, that your conclusions have any merit until he/she is able to repeat the methods and results. You're simply wrong. Based on my prior experience with other folks making your assertion it's unlikely you're amenable to persuasion, but in any case here's the latest word on what scientists say on our warming climate and man's influence on that climate. That's the National Research Council of the United States under the auspices of the United States National Academy of Sciences, reporting back on a request by the U.S. President Bush. You won't find a more reliable source. If you don't understand the weight this report carries I'm afraid there's really no perfectly kind way of saying you're quite out of your league in making judgments about this topic. -
Blessthefall at 14:20 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
@Marcus: Anyone who is familiar with the scientific community knows this: every scientist is biased, it's impossible not to be biased and its impossible to have a "bias-free" scientific community and agendas can vary from person to person. Regarding your oil company comment: DuPont Energy, Cynergy Energy, among many, many others are paid by organizations like Greenpeace to advance "green energy." Most notably, James Hansen receives money from the Heinz Foundation - owned by none other than Congressman John Kerry's wife. Same thing happens on the other side regarding the "deniers." Emotional language such as "robust," "never before seen," and "record heat" or "record" this or that is emotional language and should be eliminated from the scientific literature. And if I've revealed (from my previous post) my "political leanings" please enlighten me and everyone else on my political leanings. Lastly, I can careless if you find my comments insulting: considering you're a "scientist" you should welcome constructive criticism. -
Doug Bostrom at 14:13 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Thingadonta, regarding your point #1 the challenge for those harboring the belief that theory and observations regarding climate science are ideologically influenced is that of making a scientific case of how that is so. To do that, they need only demonstrate that those theories and observations are incorrect. That has not happened and daily the chances of that eventuality are growing slimmer, essentially nonexistent at this point if for no other reason than it is implausible that so many researchers in different related disciplines should be able to produce a false but mutually consistent and coherent picture. Blessthefall, I don't agree that Rob's post is inherently political. At a certain point-- for instance when folks still cannot accept climate science's inevitable conclusions based on physics and observations despite statements of acceptance as fact by such as the American National Academy of Sciences in a report produced at the behest of the President of the United States-- the very fact of that resistance to science itself becomes a phenomenon, open to discussion and analysis. It's a legitimate subject of study. Further to shawnhet's points, I believe that when we begin talking of ideological considerations such as the "free market" (no more existent than ever was Communism, by the way) and even more abstract notions such as an imaginary desire to "grow government" as an end in itself, we've quite departed from what we know of the useful relationship between science and human affairs. Quite simply this matter we're discussing is no more ideologically freighted than is the notion of responsible disposal of sewage or any other potentially noxious byproduct of our daily existence. -
Marcus at 13:58 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
Also @ Daisym. Robhon is dead right-most electric vehicles will tend to be charged when demand for grid electricity is at its absolute lowest. This will have the triple bonus of (a) eliminating the direct CO2 emissions from the burning of petrol & diesel to drive our vehicles-by shunting it to electricity (as the gCO2/100km of an electric vehicle is roughly half that of a petrol powered vehicle of a similar size & make-even from a coal-fired power station),(b) significantly reducing the amount of waste CO2 generated by current off-peak overcapacity & (c) eliminating all of the other directly harmful emissions currently associated with the burning of petrol-such as benzene, carbon monoxide & particulate emissions. Most of the solutions to greenhouse gas emissions have similar flow-on benefits to the environment & economy but-as they'll cut into the profits of the fossil fuel industry-these solutions are strongly resisted. -
scaddenp at 13:58 PM on 3 June 2010CO2 is not the only driver of climate
theendisfar - explain to me how evaporation/convection are relevant to the energy imbalance at TOA please? Some info to help you perhaps at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/faq-on-climate-models-part-ii/ Remember too that "AGW" is really a byproduct of our current theory of climate. You test the theory in conventional ways - use the theory to make predictions; test them against observations from real world. Works pretty well. -
Marcus at 13:46 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
theendisfar. If you're going to keep banging on about Convection & Evaporation as being major obstacles to AGW, then it is beholden upon you to provide the EVIDENCE-preferably in the form of peer-reviewed scientific journals. Scientists have spent the better part of a century proving (a) that there is such a thing as a Greenhouse effect & (b) showing what the various positive & negative feedback mechanisms in this effect are. Yet you seem to believe that you can just come along & say "well its simply not true" & have everyone believe you WITHOUT PROOF?!?! That might work in the Denialist Blogosphere, but it doesn't work here. if your pseudo-scientific claims had an ounce of truth behind them, then you'd be able to use them to explain the following observations: (a) that in spite of having a black-body temperature of -18 degrees C, the planet has been around +8 to +15 degrees C for the better part of 80 million years; (b) in spite of the sun being cooler 500 million to 1 billion years ago, the planet was around 6 to 8 degrees *warmer* than in modern times. The main difference back then there was 5 to 10 times more CO2 in our atmosphere; (c) in spite of 30 years of declining sun-spot activity, the planet has warmed at a rate of 0.16 degrees per decade. Now, if all your claims about Convection & Evaporation were correct, then neither (a), (b) nor (c) could hold true. Until you can explain how it can be otherwise, then I must simply dismiss you as another hardened Denialist. -
thingadonta at 13:45 PM on 3 June 2010Why does Anthony Watts drive an electric car?
A few points: 1) It is true that most (not all) of the peer-reviewed scientific papers (in your top right science quadrant in Figure 2) provide evidence for AGW. If the papers are right, then AGW is a concern, and your discussion makes sense. However, most of the 'ideological influencers' in the lower left of Figure 4 don't accept that the general conclusions of the larger body of scientific papers are correct. They generally think the case is far overstated. It's this point of contention that divides and causes most of the problems. The 'influencers' in the lower right believe there is a two-way feedback loop between the 'science', and the 'ideologicial influencers' in the top right of Fig 4, which is distorting the data. They don't believe that the scientific community is dispassionately looking at the data. They have a fatailistic perspective of human nature, that implies that it is very easy for the hard 'science' to become distorted, biased and essentially hijacked by political agendas of both the lower left, and top right, of your Fig 4. 2) Most of your discussion assumes the science is settled and irrefutable, and therfore the skeptical position on AGW is largely irrational. You imply that it is as settled as evolution or continental drift. However neither evolution, nor continental drift, make high certainty forecasts or projections based on variable rates of change, wheares climate scientists do, presumably because, unlike evolution of continental drift, one scenario could cause major problems for humanity. Ask any biologist and he will tell you one can't know which way evolution will proceed in the future, neither will a volcanologist/geologist on longer time scales. (EG Some complex subduction zones can reverse in direction, stall, or stop). 3) You discussion is very opinionated, or what you refer to as 'biased'. You are right. For xample, you start talking about cheaper energy and domestic jobs etc when these sort of projections are in themselves highly controversial, even if the science is correct. You dont even bother to mention that these issues are also debatable. Once again, you assume that this issue is 'settled'. Many on both sides think that energy will become more expensive, and domestic employment and the general economy weaker, if various AGW policies are implemented. Energy cannot be created or destroyed. You can't get any more energy out of something/process than is in it. It is one of the few, rock hard, unchangeable realities of life. Most 'alternative energies' currently produce less reliable, less efficient, lower output, less transportabe, more expensive energy than eg fossil fuels; and because of the rock hard fact given above, for most alternative energies, this may never change, regardless of human ingenuity and new technologies.
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