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Comments 11901 to 11950:

11901. MA Rodger at 19:22 PM on 23 February 2019
       Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
       

       Ereman @115,

       The hurricane strikes on the good old USA may or may not be rising in number or intensity. That may or may not be because of the variability in such a small sub-set of tropical cyclones. But the North Atlantic basin is experiencing a greater number of hurricanes of greater intensity. See the graphic here (usually two clicks to 'download your attchment')

       So your "If so when?" question should perhaps be not When? but Where?

11902. Riduna at 10:17 AM on 23 February 2019
       Global coal use may have peaked in 2014, says latest IEA World Energy Outlook
       

       The Word Energy Outlook seems less speculative when it comes to technology advances, particularly those leading to improved electricity storage and increased photovoltaic efficiency. As argued in a recent essay, both are likely to have a profound effect on the speed with which uptake of EV’s occur and ability to store renewable energy more cheaply and access/use it more widely.

       Nor should the importance of AI to reducing oil consumption be overlooked. It is possible that within a decade self-driving vehicles will provide a cheap, efficient alternative to private vehicle ownership. The result: more efficient use of roads and fewer vehicles on them, further contributing to a speedier reduction in the use of oil and resulting air pollution.

       The 2018 EV Report by Bloomberg is well worth a read.

11903. sebi at 07:21 AM on 23 February 2019
       Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
       

       Weather extremes are often not a direct thermodynamically-driven consequence of increasing temperatures and humidity, but often indirectly driven by global warming via associated changes in the dynamics of weather systems. A prominent example is the projected poleward shift of the storm tracks under global warming scenarios (Ref. 1). The storm tracks are the accumulated footprint of the pathways of numerous extratropical cyclones, which then can cause, among others, extreme precipitation events. If the storm tracks shift poleward, storm frequencies change from one location to another. Storm intensities must be treated distinct from storm frequencies and their clustering.

       One related example are weather fronts, along which most precipitation in an extratropical cyclone is formed. Forecasters may use slightly different definitions of what exactly a weather front is, but it is clear that extreme precipitation events (or hail) are often triggered ahead of cold fronts, due to the related forced vertical motion, for example during a hot summer day with high convective potential. It is known that the intensity of weather fronts scales with the precipitation during the following hours.

       Consequently, changes in extreme events are often linked to changes in weather systems and related changes in their local frequencies and their intensities. This acts as an additional dynamical driver of changes in extreme weather, in tandem with the more direct thermodynamic change, i.e., the increase in the atmosphere's water holding capacity, due to global warming. Trends in the frequency of weather fronts and their intensity changes are presented for example in Ref. 2.

       Selected references:

       (1) Chang, E. K. M., Y. Guo, and X. Xia (2012), CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23118, doi:10.1029/2012JD018578.

       (2) Schemm, S., M. Sprenger, O. Martius, H. Wernli, and M. Zimmer (2017), Increase in the number of extremely strong fronts over Europe? A study based on ERA‐Interim reanalysis (1979–2014), Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 553–561, doi:10.1002/2016GL071451.

       [Nature Climate Change, V7, page 96 (2017): https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3218]

11904. william5331 at 06:38 AM on 23 February 2019
       Global coal use may have peaked in 2014, says latest IEA World Energy Outlook
       

       Peak Coal is not like Peak Oil.  At least until the Americans went all out on fracking, oil was peaking because scarcity made it more expensive.  It was a quasi natural economic phenomenon.  Coal is not like that.  There are enormous, easily accessed reserves of coal which can be easily and cheaply brought back into production.  The only reason coal has peaked is that renewables have come down so much in price.  What is needed to put the final nail in the coffin of coal is to make it illegal for them to finance politicians.  That would really have an effect.

11905. Ereman at 05:04 AM on 23 February 2019
       Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
       

       It is impossible to predict a "theory" about the effects of people on climate >=50 years out. The variables are too high to make any concrete corolation. If you can't predict with any certainty 50 yrs out, how then can you ask the right question. In other words if it is impossible to predict with ANY certainty, about something as volitile as weather, how can you figure out the answer; how do we stop it? How do we change an outcome when we really don't know the cause, of that outcome (50 years from now). Especially when Gores predictions almost 15 years ago, have not come close to being true. No change in weather intensity, no underwater cities. Hell, even New Orleans (below sea level) is completely intact. 

       If we can't even predict 10 - 20 years out, (Gore failed miserably), how does anyone hold stock in a guaranteed prediction 50 years out?

       For the moderator. In my opinion you can not separate politics and global warming, the green new deal (political) they exist for each other. The green deal , i think, came first. It is not realistic to think the two are not inextricably linked. 

       I digress, will not mix the two here.

       Moderator Response:

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       Moderation complaints and off-topic snipped.

11906. RedBaron at 02:33 AM on 23 February 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       @1 nowhearthis,

       Very little in science is absolute. However, yes indeed there are solutions, but to understand this you must go back to basics.

       This problem is not only about emissions. This is a carbon cycle. Trying to fix this by eliminating carbon emissions is tackling the problem with one hand tied behind our backs. It won't work, and several researchers have made the claim we already passed the point where that alone it actually can’t work.[1] There are two sides to this and BOTH must be improved, less emissions and more sequestration.

       You need to go back to basics and rethink what causes Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) to begin with.

       1. We are burning fossil fuels and emitting massive amounts of carbon in the atmosphere as CO2 mostly but also some CH4 and a few other greenhouse gasses.[2]
       2. We have degraded the environmental systems that would normally pull excess CO2 out of the atmosphere.[3][4] (mostly grasslands[5])
       3. By putting more in the atmosphere and removing less, there is no other place for the excess to go but the oceans. They are acidifying due to absorbing just part of the excess.[6] (roughly 1/2)
       4. That still leaves roughly 1/2 of emissions that are building up in the atmosphere and creating an increased greenhouse effect.[7] (from ~280 ppm to 412+ppm CO2)

       So this leads directly to the way we must reverse AGW:

       1. Reduce fossil fuel use by replacing energy needs with as many economically viable renewables as current technology allows. Please note that most current forms of ethanol gas additive are not beneficial because they further degrade the sequestration side of the carbon cycle and take more fossil fuels to produce than they offset.[8]
       2. Change agricultural methods to high yield regenerative models of production made possible by recent biological & agricultural science advancements.[9][10]
       3. Implement large scale ecosystem recovery projects similar to the Loess Plateau project, National Parks like Yellowstone etc. where appropriate and applicable.[11][12][13]
       4. In short we need to reduce carbon in and increase carbon out of the atmosphere to restore balance to the carbon cycle.

       

       Currently at our technology and manufacturing capacity today, we have several technologies that can reduce fossil fuel use. Solar, Wind, Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Nuclear, and even Natural gas as a replacement for coal all helps reduce CO2. It would squash economies to 100% absolutely eliminate all fossil fuels and cement emissions, but we can right now, at a profit, with current manufacturing capacity and technology, dramatically reduce fossil fuel emissions of CO2 and CH4.

       So this alone is not enough though. reducing fossil fuel emissions is not a panacea.

       However, there is only one thing we humans do at scale large enough to geoengineer the other side of the carbon cycle, and that is agriculture. We have been doing that poorly for ~5-10 thousand years, but we know how to fix that side of the carbon cycle too. And sure enough, if we first reduce fossil fuel emissions, then change agriculture to these more modern science based organic methods, the two combined is more than enough to yield a net negative carbon footprint at an actual profit. No net cost at all actually.

       Here is the outline of how we can balance the carbon cycle with the new scientific developments in regenerative organic agriculture.

       Can we reverse global warming?

        

       There is a hold up though. In the energy sector there is a huge misdirection and obfuscation campaign paid for by the fossil fuel companies. A book was written about this called "The merchants of Doubt".

       What is less known is that a similar campaign exists in agriculture to protect the massive agribiz conglomerates dependant on fossil fuel based haber process nitrogen fertilizers made from natural gas, cheap oil to run tractors and fuel grain dryers, centralized refrigerated storage, and thousands of miles long distribution and shipping logistics networks. The whole "Green Revolution" system is massively energy inefficient, as it was designed long ago when fossil fuels were cheap and abundant.[14]

       So the solution is easy actually, although so far no countries politicians have had the balls to tackle this full Monte except the Aussies.[15] No absolutes are needed, just everyone chipping in the best they can bring to the table. And unfortunately, as soon as the Aussies did, the next election cycle the Merchants of Doubt won and it was canceled.

11907. Postkey at 00:28 AM on 23 February 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       No 'solutions'?

       “ The level of fossil fuel consumption globally is now roughly five times higher than in the 1950s, and one-and-half times higher than in the 1980s, when the science of global warming was confirmed and governments accepted the need to act on it. This is a central feature of the “great acceleration” of human impacts on the natural world. . . .
       CO2 emissions are 55% higher today than in 1990. Despite 20 international conferences on fossil fuel use reduction and an international treaty that entered into force in 1994, man made greenhouse gases have risen inexorably.”
       https://piraniarchive.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/pirani-helsinki-wern2018-paper.pdf

11908. sebi at 20:46 PM on 22 February 2019
       Antarctica is gaining ice
       

       The influence of near-surface winds, in particular steered by extratropical cyclones or anti-cyclones, has recently received renewed attension. As much of the sea-ice is guided by near-surface winds, anomalously strong offshore winds can act to reduce the seasonal retreat of sea ice (it can also act the other way round). This influence of the wind as a mechanical driver of changes in sea-ice extend is comparable to the associated thermodynamic influence via warm and cold-air advection onshore/offshore Antarctica (1). 

       Regional changes in the frequencies and intensities of different weather types, weather patterns, the associated storm tracks and related phenomena, like weather fronts, to a global-scale warming is highly complex and display no homogeneous increase. The local anomalies of the sea-ice extend during the melt season is even coupled to anomalous winds during the previous sea-ice growth season, which affects the sea-ice growth rate and acts as initial condition for the  anomalies seen in sea-ice extend during the next season. The sea-ice extend anomalies are not directly/instantaneously connected in space and time to wind anomalies (2,3,4).

       Nonetheless,  studies have found trends in number of extratropical cyclones and anticyclones that agree with those seen in Antarctica sea-ice extend, across space and time and not suprisingly, the changes in the frequency of weather systems and related wind exhibit high spatial variability (4).

       Assuming a homogenous decrease of sea ice in response to global warming is a clear over simplification as the intermediate scale, the weather scale, and its response to a hemispheric-wide mean warming trends is highly non-linear in space and time. There is clear tendency by critics to discount/ignore the influence of the wind as a mechanical driver underlying the observed sea-ice trends and focus purely on a simplified thermodynamic local response.

       Literature:

       (1) Holland, P. R., & Kwok, R. (2012). Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea ice drift. Nature Geoscience, 5, 872–875. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1627

       (2) Holland, M. M., Landrum, L., Raphael, M., & Stammerjohn, S. (2017). Springtime winds drive Ross sea ice variability and change in the following autumn. Nature Communications, 8, 731. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0

       (3) Holland, P. R. (2014). The seasonality of Antarctic sea ice trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 4230–4237. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060172

       (4) Schemm, S. (2018). Regional trends in weather systems help explain Antarctic sea ice trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079109

11909. Eclectic at 19:01 PM on 22 February 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       @1

       "absolute and confirmed"  is possible only in retrospect.

       A realist avoids the trap of impossible expectations.

       Simply aim to do your best.

11910. MA Rodger at 18:56 PM on 22 February 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       nowhearthis @1,

       Could you describe what you mean by "solutions"? There may be "a lot of talk" on the subject but they are not using the word "solutions" on this page.

11911. nowhearthis at 17:22 PM on 22 February 2019
       New research, February 4-10, 2019
       

       There's a lot of talk about "solutions".  Is there any PROVEN solutions?  Can anyone point me to the validation?  I don't count 'appears-could-can-seems-may-projected-opinion-etc." as validation.  I'm looking for something that is absolute and confirmed.

11912. Mal Adapted at 05:38 AM on 22 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       My thanks to all participants in this interesting and admirably rational discussion. 

       My understanding of the limits to economic growth, as well my moral discomfort with the myriad injustices arising from economic liberalism and the illiberal concentration of capital it enables, places me in sympathy with the radicals represented by jef and OPOF. Clearly, climate change due to anthropogenic global warming shares economic and political causes with other forms of pollution, loss of biodiversity and all other social costs externalized by the 'free' market for goods and services (free, that  is, of collective intervention to internalize those costs in private transactions: we all recognize concentrated capital's power to distort markets to its further advantage).

       Yet I reluctantly agree with scaddenp's #34:

       OPOF - my issue is that what you want seems to involve somehow changing people. I do not see a feasible path to implementation...I predict there will be no progress in US unless Dems are also prepared to stop gaming for their tribal values.

       Any solution the US Congress enacts will be with the consent of the governed: to suppose otherwise is to deny your fellow citizens agency. Accordingly, only broad-based public support can overcome the determined opposition of the wealthy elite. As much as I'd like to see guaranteed jobs and high-quality health care for all Americans, I don't want passage of a US national Carbon Fee and Dividend with Border Adjustment Tariff to be tied to the rest of the Green New Deal, and would negotiate away the GND's other goals for an effective decarbonization measure.

       IMO, AGW is the most urgent problem the world faces, and it can be effectively addressed in advance of broader economic and political changes. A short-term (decades) solution won't require drastic redesign of global society, and will buy us time. As a consequence of free-market capitalism, AGW can be abated by targeted collective intervention in energy markets. If a meaningful fraction of the marginal climate-change cost of fossil fuels is collected from producers, they will adjust their profit margins as they see fit or exit the market. Either way, fuel prices will rise, causing consumer demand to shift toward carbon-neutral energy. Capital investment should then shift to its production, storage and distribution, bringing fossil carbon emissions to zero rapidly and at the lowest net cost. Yes, global liquidation of natural capital will continue meanwhile, but at least it will be in a stable climate!

11913. Ereman at 02:04 AM on 22 February 2019
       Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
       

       One of the end games of climate change is crazy increased severe weather. Has anyone looked at hurricane history in U.S.?

        https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

       The numbers don't support the assertion. Just as many back to 1851  -some decades there are more hurricanes before 1950. Definitely no increase in intensity or number recently, since 1950. Look at the numbers.

       So will climate change produce more disasterous weather? If so when?

       Beware, this climate change religion, strangley coincides w the inception of the "Green New Deal". I suspect the GND came first. They need climate change to scare people towards the green deal, that simple. 

       It is a huge planet (we really can't comprehend). Some cyles could be thousands or tens of thousands of years. We would be remiss to assume humans have that much power over this gigantic planet.

       NOTHING significant has changed, since Gores doom and gloom ~13 years ago.

       Come on folks, irrefutable, undeniable, incontrovertable (used to be the bible), now it is the religion of global warming.

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] This is a science and evidence-based venue.  Please check your political ideologies at the door.  If you are unable to do that, then other venues exist for you.

       The remainder of your comment is off-topic on this post.  Any responses of continuations to this line of discussion should be done on this thread.

       Ideological rantings snipped.

11914. scaddenp at 13:55 PM on 21 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Changing core values is something I wouldnt bother to attempt. As far as I can see from literature you need either life-event that shocks worldview or tools rather associated with "brain-washing". Converting tribal GOP to Dem  or Nat to Labour in our case isnt going to happen.

       I dont think effective climate action needs to change core values. Market-based solutions are quite acceptable to right. The problem at moment, is any mention of climate action is immediately associated with people who cry "its the end of capitalism" etc. Again, the key is center. Formulate policy you can sell to the center with a charismatic salesperson and dont bother trying to convince the extremes. Generally parties dont need to worry that centrist policies offend their wings - they will grumble but vote for you anyway because that is what they do.

11915. nigelj at 13:18 PM on 21 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Scaddenp @ OPOF.

       It's a simple fact that conservatives have been taken over by extremists in some countries such as the USA and Britain And the Labour Party has also been taken over by an extremist leader in J Corbyn (although he means well). The following article attests to the conservative issue,  and discusses three Tory MPs talking about leaving the party as a result of the extremism.

       www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/tory-mps-defect-independent-group-soubry-allen-wollaston

        

       The system does seem to self correct like this eventually, and I would say we can encourage it, but it obviously has to be encouraged in factual ways that do not demonise conservatives  too much. Simply stating the fact that their party has been taken over by extremists is a start!

       This issue is also about changing peoples values systems and political ideologies. It's obviously hard, but I do think its possible to do this.

       One example is many of us think racism / xenophobia is wrong and immigration has value , and we have to state "racism is wrong!" Its hard persuading people if we dont identify the problem. You have to identify problems clearly. But I suggest one should not "dwell" on that problem and demonise people for their beliefs. The emphasis has to be on the advantages of multiculturalism, socially and economically, so promote it in a positive way. And even progressives should also accept unreservedly that immigration has to have some basic controls on it : so here is an example of identifying with sensible conservative concerns!

       I think this approach to racism has worked in New Zealand because conservatives have gradually become much more accepting of immigration and multi culturalism, and gay rights, although with the exception of one of the minor parties and their followers. Even if they have deeper misgivings, there is at least a level of acceptance!

       But I fully admit changing peoples core values is hard work. For example I do not take kindly to bible bashers. But it's not impossible to change peoples deeper beliefs. I recall reading some science that we are born either liberal or conservative, but it doesn't appear to be rigidly fixed. I think this was in New Scientist.

       Having said that it still makes total sense to also try to find common ground with other political groups and try and see things from their perspectives and not be too excessively preachy.

       Regarding the  GND. My preference is for carbon tax and dividend, but that has not gained traction, despite the fact it has been designed to satisfy conservative concerns! 

       The GND may be controversial but it could turn into a circuit breaker of some kind. While it is  loaded up with social provisions that do not seem directly relevant,  it has one distinct selling point, it is an actual "plan" and not some nerdy sounding single policy idea like a carbon fee or cap and trade. A lot of this issue is about perceptions.

       Time will tell I guess.

11916. scaddenp at 11:39 AM on 21 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       " I want to correct any developed harmful unhelpful attitudes and minimize the future development of such attitudes."

       And your path to that? I doubt you can do it. "I have not yet found a way to break them out of their incorrect developed beliefs" - that doesnt surprize me at all.

       GND - well I didnt think Trump was electable so I maybe I will be wrong again. My money is on it going nowhere politically without a massive change. And if some miracle happens and it passes, then money is firmly on it not being achievable. Time will tell who is right.

       I still think you are demonising the right. What I hear is people scared of the rapid change, seeing themselves, friends and/or neighbours redundant, towns in decay and no apparent interest from the government. Blaming immigrants/Chinese etc is humanly easier than blaming changing technology. Distant disasters and future change are far less compelling than what is in front of there eyes. Not to mention Trump seeming the lesser of two evils. Trump went for that sentiment and GND is clearly trying to pitch there as well.

       However, I dont think center will buy GND and doubt enough of the disaffected will buy it to make up for that loss. Too many extremely obvious defects will be pointed out.

11917. Johnb at 10:59 AM on 21 February 2019
       Studies shed new light on Antarctica’s future contribution to sea level rise
       

       The answer is in the MICI illustration. In the real world you have a number of random tipping points for when a particular ice flow/glacier retreats beyond its grounding line. Once that has happened the whole dynamics of melt and retreat change exponentially. As an aside in my humble opinion any modelling based on the Paris Accords, in particular the lower band is purely wishful thinking, the lower band was a political decision not a scientific one.

11918. One Planet Only Forever at 10:29 AM on 21 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       sacddenp,

       I indeed want to change attitudes. I want to correct any developed harmful unhelpful attitudes and minimize the future development of such attitudes.

       I have a relative who is a devout GOP supporter. When I challenge them to be helpful rather than harmful they shut down rather than improving their understanding, especially when I point out the factually incorrect things they have been tempted to believe. If I do not challenge them on that essential objective to be helpful and attempt to correct their understanding the conversations are pointless, purely 'getting along'.

       I understand that chosing not to 'get along' can be hard. As an Engineer it was my responsibility to 'not get along with people who wanted to benefit from being harmful and to not get along with people who did not want to improve their understanding of a matter that mattered'. So my ability to accept that some people are not worth getting along with is potentially rather unique. But I still strive to help others improve their awareness and understanding and become more helpful to the development of sustainable improvements for the furture of humanity, even if it means not getting along with a relative (I still try to help them, but I have not yet found a way to break them out of their incorrect developed beliefs).

       As for Other values. I only respect values that are governed by the pursuit of improved awareness and understanding and helping to develop sustainable improvemenst for humanity and correct harmful developments. Any 'values' that are not governed that way are immoral/unethical/harmful. The perfect examples are party loyalty and respect for hierarchy in the GOP that has supported/excused ridiculous members who have repeatedly spouted nonsense regarding climate science. Where are the Conservatives who will publicly ridicule those among them who deserve to be ridiculed (few and far between because of that tribal trait that is stronger in the Right Wing that resists correction than in the Left Wing that pushes for changes)?

       The bottom line on the GND is that the vast majority of the younger population support it. The older generation resists it (including some, but not all, of the older Democrats in the USA). And that is consistent with Greta's perfectly pointed point.

11919. scaddenp at 10:00 AM on 21 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       OPOF - my issue is that what you want seems to involve somehow changing people. I do not see a feasible path to implementation.

       I engage with "right" and usually have no problem finding common ground, especially if I avoid demonising and respect values. I predict there will be no progress in US unless Dems are also prepared to stop gaming for their tribal values. How much time do you spend in conversation with GOPers?

       The bottom line on GND is that is unsellable (not to mention on unphysical and antagonistic, increasing polarization not decreasing).

11920. One Planet Only Forever at 09:44 AM on 21 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       scaddenp,

       I have tried to remain consistent.

       Any political group, social group, political group or economic system is OK as long as all of its actions are governed by the objective of improving awareness and understanding and applying that knowledge to help develop sustainable improvements for the future of humanity (and do no harm to the future of humanity - and do no harm to Others in the current day population).

       Capitalism is great as long as it is monitored and governed to ensure that helpful actions are rewarded and unsustainable and harmful actions are quickly discouraged (before they can develop the problematic resistance to correction due to popularity and profitability).

       I would also like to see all the parties that want to help improve the future for humanity control what happens. I see the Conservatives in Canada, Australia, the USA and Japan as no longer having any moderate influence inside them (moderate voters ay support them, but there is no moderate progressive influenceon party actions).

       So my point remains that unless the moderate progressive Conservatives regain control of those United Right Conservative Parties that deliberately kick out or stifle any Progressive members, those Conservative Parties are not the parties you refer to (the right wing you and I would like to support has no significant power).

       And the bottom line of the GND is that it helps the future of humanity with the objective of not causing more harm to any group. Correcting undeserved developed perceptions of status relative to others is not 'harming those who have the undeserved perceptions of status'. And the Unite the Right can be seen to be winning power by gathering up a diversity of groups that have developed (or want to develop) undeserved perceptions of status and resist correction of those perceptions. And that group includes people opposed to actions to correct the perceptions of status obtained by benefiting from the burning of fossil fuels.

       So the moderate/progressive Conservatives have to set up new parties or take back control of the Unite the Right consolidated Conservative parties that have developed. And I fully support either action. What I do not support is compromising what is understood to be required by 'negotiation' with political groups that have proven they have little interest in participating in the required corrections.

       Bottom line. It is only possible to discuss issues with people who have common objectives. The right have allowed their side to be taken over by a United group of people who do not share the objective of helping to develop a sustainable better future for humanity (some of them may pay lip-service to climate action, but they definitely oppose any other helpful corrections. And their actual support for the required climate action corrections is questionable). Interesting point is that the left extremists include people who are better aligned with that helpful objective than moderate Conservatives who tribally continue to support United Right groups.

11921. Marathon at 06:30 AM on 21 February 2019
       97 hours of consensus: caricatures and quotes from 97 scientists
       

       Magma, The three deniers are  John Christy, Richard Lindzen, and Roy Spencer.

11922. william5331 at 04:44 AM on 21 February 2019
       Studies shed new light on Antarctica’s future contribution to sea level rise
       

       There is an additional phenomenon that may be relevant with regard to the speed of disintegration of glaciers which are grounded below sea level on a retrograde slope. It is the IP (Ice Pump) phenomenon.  Also not to forget the TP (Tidal Pump) effect.  https://mtkass.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-ice-pump.html  It is likely that they will work synergestically with the MICI.

11923. scaddenp at 14:21 PM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       The Democrats arent helping either with things like GND. They seem just as happy to fight a war of ideologies rather than finding a solution. Stepping back from polarization is  difficult and has to begin with talking across the table.

11924. nigelj at 11:40 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Scaddenp, I have had a quick look at your conservative website links and there is quite a lot I would agree with, but the trouble is The GOP and the republican congress and Trump are acting out another script entirely. 

       There is clearly a massive rift between grass roots conservatives and the hierarchy, but the grass roots are compliant because of the inherent respect for authority. Its a challenge, but I agree its good to try to find common ground with grass roots conservatives, and there is some.

11925. nigelj at 11:31 AM on 20 February 2019
       Studies shed new light on Antarctica’s future contribution to sea level rise
       

       I'm with Riduna on this. Modelling glaciers with computers has limitations and always will have, but past history tells a clear story of similar temperatures to currently and considerable sea level rise.The rate of rise varied and was sometimes more than 40mm plus per year, so more than 1.46 metres / century. 

       en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Past_changes_in_sea_level

11926. Riduna at 10:53 AM on 20 February 2019
       Studies shed new light on Antarctica’s future contribution to sea level rise
       

       A problem facing climate scientists is that they do not know the speed with which the polar ice sheets are likely to respond to environment changes, particularly changes in temperature.

       What they can do is look at paleoclimate evidence which shows that mean global temperature is now within a few tenths of a degree of the Eemian maximum, when sea level was 6-9 meters higher than at present.

       What they can do is look at ice core evidence which shows that present atmospheric levels of CO2 (407 ppm) and CH4 (1870 ppb) are 40% and 270% above those which prevailed during the Eemian maximum.

       They can bear in mind other observed factors such as the effects of soot deposited on the Greenland ice sheet, accelerating loss of ice mass from polar and other glaciers and ongoing rise in energy absorbed by the oceans.

       Having done so, can they confidently predict that sea level rise during the 21st century will be measured in centimetres?

11927. nigelj at 08:53 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Scaddenp @26 I must admit the greenie side of the protest movement is not subtle. I admit I'm basically in agreement with you on the whole issue. It is about winning over centre leaning swing voters so it needs subtlety and sensitivity and fundamentally sensible ideas.

       I question a couple of your statements because that is what robust discussion should be about,  and to avoid a group think mentality.

       I have generally progressive values, but I am not an extremist and generally take a moderate, centrist, practical position on things,  amply demonstrated I feel. It's tough going, because everyone thinks one is either secretly ultra conservative or secretly ultra  liberal. It can be a lonely place sometimes, but I have to go with where the hard evidence and logic leads, not tribal loyalty. 

       Remember we don't have to win over all people, just the majority and some of the power brokers. Too much compromise can be as disastrous as no compromise.

11928. scaddenp at 06:48 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       The problem with UN sustainable goals in the "UN" bit on the front of them. Anything UN is red flag to some. What would work would be nations internalizing these into nation-specific goals without referencing the UN.

11929. scaddenp at 06:44 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       OPOF - the far right and far left will do what they always have. What bugs me is the belief that best way to fight a fire is pouring petrol on it.

       In any democracy, I am familiar with, changing government or policy depends on the relatively small part of the population who dont vote tribally at least some of the time. These are overwhelming the centre and so influencing such voters is the key to change. In US in particular, you can also affect change by getting some lawmakers to cross the floor. This means policy that doesnt offend their political values.

       In US, I think you could get climate policy by working with conservative groups to get policy that say, ticks every box on the ACC platform statement. Then you get conservative groups to promote it.

       Instead we get GND...

11930. scaddenp at 06:09 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       nigelj

       " However it doesn't address the points I raised on the difficulties of framing things in a way that connects with conservatives."

       With respect, I think the ACC platform statements provides a clear guide. Lets take local perspective, say issue of dairying. Which approach do you think will work for changing farming practise:

       1/ A protest at Field days decrying dirty dairying with signs about farmers destroying the landscape and putting profits before water quality.

       2/ Or this. "Tired of being told by town greenies to destroy your livelihood? Sick of people with no knowledge of farming telling you how to manage your land? Farmers have always valued the land and passed its stewardship down through generations. We also value our water (who better?), and our environment (we live in it instead looking at pictures). Come and hear some practical ecologists, with a long history of working with farmers instead of against them, talk about their discoveries and ways in which your deep knowledge of your own land could harness these insights for a better land and better business".

11931. nigelj at 05:27 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       scaddenp @21

       Thank's for the links and I will read them. However it doesn't address the points I raised on the difficulties of framing things in a way that connects with conservatives. I do think we have to find some way, because the reality of politics means convincing enough conservatives to get enough overall votes.

       I'm very much a swing voter. I also support whatever party has the most sensible policies and capable leader at the time. I dont understand life long partisan loyalties, seems ridiculous to me. But apparently people like us are in a minority.

       I haven't suggested that a solution to the climate issue is for people to adopt my political values as such. Talking about values is is a different thing from that. Its a science website so I feel nothing should be off the table for analysis.

       I do think we are better to stay with promoting specific quantifiable climate policies.

       However the UN sustainable development goals do not seem like political values. They seem well constructed and it would seem wrong to compromise them in case it offends "unite the right". There is a danger in compromising so much that nothing of worth is left.

       I sense that a significant proportion of grass roots conservatives would probably go along with the sustainable development goals as a philosophy. I would bet money the majority of the general public would support them.

       Imho we are in effect being held hostage by a minority of more extreme voices on the right and their political and media influence and brazen and inflammatory rhetoric.  But its up to the general public to gain an awareness of this and make their voices heard. It does indeed have to come from the grass roots.

11932. One Planet Only Forever at 05:01 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Nick Palmer,

       "...the engine behind denialism isn't really the fossil fuel corporations anymore but is more the right wing's horror of the solutions put forth as 'essential' by the left wing."

       The right-wing you refer to has been taken over by the newly developed United Right I refer to. That new leadership of the Right is the problem needing to be corrected. And that United Right leadership like to try to claim that the understood corrections required to develop sustainable improvements for the future of humanity are "The Left", and are ideas of Others to be Feared.

       I support the Responsible helpful members of the Right regaining control of their side of the spectrum. I do not see them succeeding without help from the "Left" which can only be obtained by those on the Right acting to helpfully achieve and improve on all, not some, of the Sustainable Development Goals.

       The Sustainable Development Goals are blind to political sides. They are the best understanding and are open to improvement by any reasoned case presented by any side. And all siodes should accept the constantly improved understanding (very science like).

       Right now the Right substantially incorrectly fights to oppose the achievment of the Sustainable Development Goals (because of loss of undeserved perceptions of status relative to others if the corrections are achieved). That needs to change, preferably by people on the Right regaining control over the dialogue and discourse from their side to be helpful participants in the development of sustainable improvements for the future of humanity.

11933. Nick Palmer at 03:36 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       I have to agree with scaddenp. It's not actually absolutely necessary to cure world hunger, inequality etc etc to fix mamade climate change - it would be nice, but it really isn't essential. Unfortunately, anyone who spends any time fighting denialism, particularly the more sopisticated type, soon realises that the engine behind denialism isn't really the fossil fuel corporations anymore but is more the right wing's horror of the solutions put forth as 'essential' by the left wing.  I think it fair to say that a significant part of the leadership of some of the large environmental organisations and campignig bodies tends to be very left wing and its arguable that many actually are the 'watermelons' that they are characterised as - green on the outside, red on the inside. Far left individuals masqueranding as environmentalists. There are significant 'climate change personalities' such as Dr Richard Alley, Potholer 54 and Katherine Hayhoe who are right wing, even Republicans but I have sensed a curious reluctance from some climate campaigners, and some in Greenpeace, to even consider their words and 'right wing' solutions as acceptable. It doesn't seem to these 'watermelon' types that solutions which very well might work should be allowed, because they counter far left wing ambitions.

11934. sauerj at 03:15 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Green New Deal must not sabotage climate goals
       

       RedBaron & Others:
       1) First off, a point of clarification on my @20: I technically mis-spoke (@20) when saying EICDA would subsidize Carbon Seq (CS) to "farmers and land managers". It does provide a refund to CCS enterprises (that meet “safe, permanent, and in compliance with any applicable local, State, and Federal laws”), but there is no direct language aimed at "farmers and land managers". However, if these agricultural-based CS practices could be shown to meet the above quoted provision, then possibly a refund to "farmers and land managers" (the subsidy RB advocates) would indeed occur. See point 2.9 in this FAQ on the EICDA.
       
       2) EICDA's Rise-in-Fee is tied to Reduction Targets: Also see in 2.1 & 2.2 of this same EICDA FAQ that the carbon fee will continue to rise to meet the emission reduction targets (90% by 2050 along with interim targets that start on 2025). I personally like this provision of contining to increase the fee past $100/mt and tieing its rise-rate to meeting reduction targets. I believe this makes the EICDA even more robust in its effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions. Though faster reductions would be ideal, still, this reduction rate is laudable and superior to any other politically serious policy option that I am aware of (though, I admit, that I am not an expert on the array of serious mitigation policy options on the table). If anyone knows of a more laudable policy option, please provide links.
       
       3) CFD & CT Endorsed by Many Economists: Many noted economists (for example: a) More than 70 Top Economists Back New Carbon Tax Plan, b) Carbon Tax Center list of economists endorsing carbon tax,  and c) Nordhaus views on carbon tax) advocate for a revenue-neutral carbon tax as an effective way to reduce GHG emissions.
       
       4) The above two points #2 & #3 seem to disagree with RB's statement above (@46): "Unfortunately [EICDA] won't actually reverse AGW even if passed." when considering that the primary mitigation objective, right now, is to first concentrate on reducing GHG emissions to zero as quickly as possible.
       
       My goal of this additional comment (as this thread is probably winding down) is to 1) post the informative FAQ of the EICDA, and 2) make a good case that the EICDA will in fact be effective in reducing GHG emissions (refer to my points #2 & #3 above). Personally, I believe that these latter two points make a strong case for the efficacy of EICDA compared to any other politically serious policy option.
       
       If anyone would like to join Citizens' Climate Lobby and help to support this awesome organization and the EICDA bill, then please refer to my comment above (@20) for more information and links to CCL and on the EICDA bill (House #763 & Senate #3791).

11935. One Planet Only Forever at 02:55 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       An added point related to my comment@22.

       Jonathan Haidt's "The Righteous Mind" should be read in conjunction with "The Opposite of Hate".

       The abuse of the ability to tempt people to excuse doing harm to Others as a defence for incorrectly developed tribal desires, and the powerful resistance to being corrected that can also develop, is important for everyone to understand.

       Compromising what is understood to be required to 'make everyone happy' is impossible. The case of climate change is a powerful proof of that.

       People with developed desires to do things that are understandably harmful to Others (and the future generations are the largest group of Others) need to be disappointed by all Leaders/Winners (having their leading/winning ended if they managed to already become Leaders/Winners). All leaders need to be seen to be trying to correct the understanding of those types of people and be implementing actions that disappoint and penalize them unless they correct their understanding of what is acceptable (being helpful not harmful to Others, no other considerations over-ruling that Rule).

11936. One Planet Only Forever at 02:07 AM on 20 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       scaddenp,

       The Unite the Right groups forming around the world are the incorrect developments I am referring to that need to be corrected. They are groups of people that deliberately exclude Progressive Conservative types of leadership. They play misleading marketing games in the hopes of continuing to get the votes of people who developed a liking for voting for anything sounding like it is "Conservative".

       If the right-wing people you follow do not figure out how to regain control of the discourse among the United right-wing, and the proper improvement of awareness and understanding among the group that has been gathering power in Unite the Right groups, then you are likely following an ineffective group of people on the right (people who the Unite the Right leadership will dismiss).

       Sadly, many people who have developed a Tribal preference to vote Conservative continue to support Unite the Right groups that have been taken over by leadership of harmful collectives that fight against a diversity of corrections that are required to develop sustainable improvements for the future of humanity. The corrections to fossil fuel burning are only one part of the diversity of required corrections the Unite the Right fight against. And their Right wing winning in many nations (USA, Canada, Australia, Japan, ...) can be seen to be impediments to the climate impact corrections that are required. Even when they do not win, their misleading marketing to the public perverts the actions that the real winners would have taken to more aggressively, more responsibly, correct what had developed (as you say, the opinion among the public is powerful, but it is shaped by the stories leaders try to get people to believe).

       Sally Kohn's "The Opposite of Hate" lays out a good presentation of the direction of development the Unite the Right are on and why they succeed. If the reasonable among the Right do not regain control, governing the Right with the Universal Moral Principle of helping to improve the future for Others and do no harm to Others, then external actions (intervention) will be needed to correct what is developing (or massive harm will be done). The same can be said for any groups on the Left that are failing to self-Govern by the Universal Moral Principle. But the mainstream Left are currently remaining in control of the Left, except in regions that suffer negative consequences created by the incorrect Right getting away with unsustainable and harmful actions.

       The most benign form of corrective intervention would be non-United Right leaderships acting in ways that disappoint believers of the many incorrect beliefs gathered up in the Unite the Right. If that does not bring about suitable corrections of awareness and understanding, then penalties may be required.

       This is no different than how any society learns to deal with and correct unsustainable harmful developments. The tragedy is that global humanity is still struggling to limit the development of harmful unsustainable activity.

       The thing to be concerned about is the potential violent response of the people who need to be corrected but have developed a powerful dislike for being corrected.

11937. scaddenp at 19:17 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Actually, have a read of the principles on the ACC site and see how many you agree with and if not could you live with. OPF might be surprised at the possibilities for common ground. 

11938. scaddenp at 18:53 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       OPOF - global leaders in a democracy are constrained by what their voters will let them do. This has to work grass-roots. I hate to think what you might mean by "intervention".

       Nigelj, I have little stomach for reading rabid far right sources (or far left) but I do look for intelligent sites where it is possible to find common ground. (I am not sure my political values are far into the left - I've voted for which ever party seems to have better grasp of current problems).  Try American Conservative or Reason. (and search for Green New Deal).  I also look over Lucia's Blackboard (used to be lukewarmer hangout).

       Loyalty and authority ? Look at American Conservation Coalition (I posted the link before too). Because it speaks to conservative values, it has a much better chance of being listened to. More important is to think about any climate protest action is viewed by the people you are trying to convince, not what give a warm glow to people of your own tribe.

       But if your real aim is to try and convince of right wingers to suddenly own your values, then good luck. You will need it.

11939. peter prewett at 17:08 PM on 19 February 2019
       Studies shed new light on Antarctica’s future contribution to sea level rise
       

       SBS ran a program recently on Glaciers and Antartica, does anyone know name and where I can view it.

       My recorder failed half way through:((

       Peter

11940. nigelj at 16:41 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Regarding the TedTalk by Johan Rockström. This is related: The original world 3 Model on population, resources and growth. You can play with it, just click on Simulate and Settings at the top of the page.

       insightmaker.com/insight/1954/The-World3-Model-A-Detailed-World-Forecaster

11941. One Planet Only Forever at 16:05 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       scadedenp,

       Basically, the right-wing in the USA and many other regions of the planet has developed into Tribalism that is in serious need of correction. Intervention may be required if they will not understand and admit they need correction.

11942. One Planet Only Forever at 16:02 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       scaddenp@7,

       I refer to the past 30 years of resistance to correction of the unsustainable and harmful developments in the "global developed set of systems that clearly needs correction" in ways that also sustainably improve circustances for the less fortunate because of the clear and blunt statement of the problem presented in the UN Report "Our Common Future" in 1987:

       "25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
       26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management."

       Every leader on the planet has 'no excuse to be unaware of that understanding'.

       The continued successful resistance to the corrections that are clearly required (not just in the USA) is undeniable, and inexcusable. Even teenagers who have never heard of the Report understand that.

11943. nigelj at 15:50 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Scaddenp @13 &14

       I can imagine what right wing websites say about the Green New Deal, and it won't be pretty. I have a vivid imagination. However these websites do represent the extremists.

       With the devils advocates hat still on, I think its more about appealing to moderate Republicans. While they probably hate the social provisions of the GND it's hard to argue with the first few points in the plan because they are general, and they might go with a government financed infrastructure build that is deficit financed in preference to taxes. I think they hate taxes more than deficit financing.

       I just dont see how one frames the climate issue in a way related to authority and loyalty. The EPA in America is supposed to be an "authority" and its hated by Republicans. I think they only respect authority if its their kind of authority. Perhaps a moderately authoritarian style of  Democrat President would gain their respect? Obama didn't fit that category, he was quite laid back.

       I agree its true that if community leaders drive electric cars or use solar panels others will come to copy them particularly among Republicans who value authoritarianism, but I don't see much of that happening yet in Republican communities, and it seems unlikely to happen, because such leaders could be labelled liberal sympathisers. I mean I would like to be wrong obviously.

       I think the whole thing is more likely to be driven by economics: Carbon taxes, cheaper electric cars (which are likely within just a few years), cheaper wind energy etcetera. I think The GOP is perhaps sympathetic to this and helping give it a push, but its all been derailed by Donald Trump, and he has them under his thumb. That's authoritarianism for you!

        

11944. BaerbelW at 14:58 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       I recently happened upon a TedTalk by Johan Rockström, the new co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research which seems to fit into this discussion - it at least provides some more food for thought:

       5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world

       The general thrust is about how to work towards the UN's 17 Sustainability Goals within the Planetary Boundaries.

11945. scaddenp at 13:05 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       "I notice Nikki also talks about framing things in moral terms and in reference about harm to others. Is that not what OPOF is doing?"

       As OPOF has pointed out though, that speaks well to the left but loyalty and authority are also important to right. For many conservatives, they will only hear the argument if it is coming from someone in their tribe. If protest actions suggest disrespect for authority or breach of loyalty, then they will alienate rather than convince.

       On the other hand, if people see that "this is what folks do" (traces), then they will tend to do likewise (whatever your leanings) which could work for you or against it. If running a petrol car causes looks of disdain from within your tribe, then you buy electric. If churches and prominant individuals put solar panels on their buildings then it becomes ok to put them on yours without worrying about "ugly".

11946. scaddenp at 12:50 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       " Now playing "devils advocate", its actually The Green New Deal is what is getting peoples attention, despite all the social baggage, imho probably because it's an actual "plan" not just some single tax that's supposed to solve everything."

       Spend some time on a few US rightwing blogs and see what is discussed.

11947. scaddenp at 12:48 PM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       jef - I am not disagreeing that systems are unfair and need improvement. I am strongly disagreeing with calls to revolution under guise of climate action. I do not accept that effective actions within the current system (eg tax and dividend) are impossible. I am not much interested in solutions that do not have a political path to fufillment or require human nature to change. I agree that human nature is also social and cooperative - the anti-plastic movement is successfully channelling that at least here in NZ. I believe that similar processes could ( and hopefully will) solve the climate problem.

11948. nigelj at 11:56 AM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Scaddenp

       "Those pushing for climate change action have to figure out how to reach out to other side instead of pushing an ideological barrow. Other countries can manage this."

       I agree, but I think America is really stuck in a very bad space and its very hard going there. Obama was a pragmatist to an extent ( and I am pretty much). His considerable ideals transcended the usual liberal / conservative ideological ideals. He reached out many times in a spirit of bipartisan pragmatism, and tried to frame things in ways that conservatives might relate to (as did Bill Clinton a bit) but as one commentator put it each time his hand came back as a bloody stump. America are going to need something pretty special to break this level of tribalism.

       I agree about tax and dividend in theory (I've promoted it all over the place) and is seems like the most workable thing in America. It's pretty politically neutral, doesn't increase size of government, but so far it still hasn't got any real traction. Now playing "devils advocate", its actually The Green New Deal is what is getting peoples attention, despite all the social baggage, imho probably because it's an actual "plan" not just some single tax that's supposed to solve everything.

       Nikki Harri is interesting. Happiness and positivity = change. Setting good examples and copying other peoples behavious = change. Now doesn't Jacinda Adern understand this so perfectly?

       I notice Nikki also talks about framing things in moral terms and in reference about harm to others. Is that not what OPOF is doing?

11949. jef12506 at 11:26 AM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       Scadd - You condemn all of humanity based on the actions of 1% of the population. Human nature is inclined to mutual interest and cooperation, !% who rule disallow this.

11950. scaddenp at 10:46 AM on 19 February 2019
       A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate
       

       A more positive example of change is that around plastic bag use. While government regulations obviously are helping, I hear people using plastic bags in a supermarket apologizing to those around them. There is a social pariah developing about plastic use and our human nature is then working to make to things better. I would heartily plug again Niki Harre "Psychology for a better world" as ways of using human nature to effect change instead of demand that it change.

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