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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 126651 to 126700:

  1. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Policy
    FWIW, I think it's fine to carry out the new policy on new threads, but I would that it is a disservice to retroactively apply changes to old threads. This is partly selfish on my part, because I would much rather that John work on new posts rather than spend time editing old ones. But I also think that old threads with bad comments can serve a function in that, for example, they can be pointed to in showing what not to do, they can be searched for information on who is debating (is somebody just wasting your time), they may serve as data for someone who wants to understand how the global warming "debate" occurs in public forums, terrible comments may have a nugget of something interesting in them, etc. Of course, John is free to do what he likes and I'm sure I'll keep coming back regardless. RSVP -- I think you are referring to the list of the hottest arguments. I don't think that's a ranking of the quality of the arguments; I believe it's a ranking of how popular they are.
    Response: My priority is still and always will be writing new posts. Culling dodgy old comments is more like a leisure activity - something I do in an idle moment. Sometimes there'll be an off-topic comment that merely repeats common skeptic arguments - I sometimes use those as a teachable moment, linking to the appropriate page that debunks the skeptic argument. I mainly delete comments that contribute nothing to the discussion.
  2. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, you comment #221 did not answer my question in #218. I asked you whether you agree with just those two particular web pages, that the temperature of the Earth would be 255 K without an atmosphere--if nakedly exposed to the heat sink of outer space. Instead of answering, you ignored my request and commented on the remainder of the web pages on that site. It is difficult to discuss a chain of reasoning with you, if you won't discuss each link in the chain, one at a time. Let's see if we agree on that early link in the chain: Just those two web pages, please.
  3. Antarctica is gaining ice
    No problem SNRatio. I think we're probably about on the same wavelength, and I agree that we should be careful not to over-interpret observations that might be "contaminated" by artefacts of the measurement, or confounded by factors that we haven't fully considered. I'm glad you found that paper. As for the slow increase in Antarctic sea ice over the past few decades, I don't really have much insight into that. It seems somewhat counter-intuitive, but if the evidence is sufficiently strong that sea ice has grown somewhat while ocean and air temperatures have increased, then we may as well accept for now what the science says in relation to deep Southern ocean stratification and the effects of the ozone hole...although I guess in this case that there's more t be learned on this little piece of natural phenomena.
  4. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, i might say the same but it would bring us nowhere; I have a diffrent attitude. Here is where you wrote the correct net flux. There's the evironment temperature in it. This is what i was referring to and where your claims of violation of the second law of thermodynamics are wrong. You produced many posts but each and every time we pointed out the errors. You did not discuss any of them but repeated the acritical copy&paste ad infinitum. Really useless indeed. There's nothing to link on high school level physics, there is no doubt nor controversy on it. What is required is critical thinking, analisys, looking at the consequences. You're are surprised, i see, but that's just because you do not have much confidence with this basic physics.
  5. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Policy
    Even if RSVP comment is a very educated one, the practical effects of keeping civility among posters are usually very positive. The debate becomes deeper and less stressing. And, again in practical terms, the difference between science and politics or ideology is usually easily spotted.
  6. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Policy
    RSVP, I don't see how posting a link to a reference is suggesting that reference is irrefutable. Citing references is valuable in at least two ways. The first is to avoid repetition. The second is to give credit to someone's data, discovery, or thoughts.
  7. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Policy
    I agree with everything by RSVP. If you delete too much and too quickly you will soon find yourself just talking to the people who already agree with you. What is the point about that?
    Response: No point at all. The last thing I want is an echo chamber. I'm deleting comments, not based on whether they agree with me or not, but based on behaviour. If you're rude, off-topic, repetitive, ideological or shouting, I'll delete your comment. My main priority is to have constructive, educational, readable and civil discussion threads.

    I've already started going through old discussion threads deleting what I deem inappropriate comments (this is not a big priority though, expect slow progress). This has included comments from both sides of the debate.
  8. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Policy
    It is clear that personal attacks and ill mannered tone do nothing but weaken one's own position. That said, it can be just as damaging, if not more destructive, to ignore sound counterpoint and reasoning. This seems to happen quite often. What you refer to as "science" is a paradigm that has its origin in Greek philosophy some 3000 years ago. This trend started as a questioning of religion or myths that were originally in place to explain workings of the natural world. In those days, many arguments and even physical fights ensued as a result of disagreement. Socrates was sentenced to death. Much later, the Inquisition formalized this process, etc. Over time, certain branches of philosophy led to the hard sciences we now know as Physics and Chemistry, and given that philosophy included subjects that couldnt always be proven, the term Philosophy has become disparaged and in many circles, at worst, equated with esoterism. But this is normally due to an ignorance of what philosophy is and its relation to the origin of science. The point is, if you cannot take a philosophical approach to discovery and learning, your "science" is in danger of becoming a religion. We can make up whatever definitions we like, but there is a big difference between scientific laws and theories (that are based on observation), and theories that leave the scientific community searching ad infinitum for observations to substantiate specific theories, and we all know which ones these are. Given that the name and stated charter of this website implies the opportunity for skepticism about science (or perhaps more precisely "science in progress"), it is generally inconsistent and circular to be countering critique with hyperlinks to irrefutable sources. What is the point of opening a forum for discussion if the irrefutable source has already established so well all there is to say? And where is the room for being skeptical? And where is the recognition for any counterpoint? The only scale that is provided is one that orders arguments from being bad to worst. How exactly does that demonstrate objectivity?
    Response: The original 'charter' of this website was "getting skeptical about global warming skepticism". I have since taken a slightly different approach upon clarifying in my own mind the difference between "scientific skepticism" and "global warming skepticism". The approach of scientific skepticism is, as I see it, to avoid drawing any conclusions until you've reviewed all the data. Global warming skepticism is, again as I see it, to decide on the conclusion then find any data or arguments that back up that conclusion. Global warming skepticism is the antithesis of genuine scientific skepticism.

    What is the most common technique in global warming skepticism? In all my research into the many skeptic arguments, I've noticed a common pattern of focusing on a narrow piece of the puzzle while neglecting the whole picture. So generally, my goal with Skeptical Science is to educate by giving the broader picture. Show what the data and research says. Once you've perused all the peer reviewed scientific literature, you see how focusing on a single piece can lead to erroneous conclusions.

    Re a scale from bad to worst, are you refering to the taxonomical categories? There's no value judgement on which of "It's not happening", "It's not us", etc are better or worse. They just are what they are. If anything, it's more a logical progression - kind of like the steps in breaking an addiction (admitting you have a problem, etc). Eg - first you have to admit there's a problem, then you have to admit you're causing the problem, then you have to admit the problem is serious.
  9. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Riccardo -re:your post #224 Don't you remember my post to YOU on this subject? (see my post#150) Funny how I have produced so many, many posts on this and Riccardo can't seem to remember any of them? Funny how Riccardo can't seem to find ANY Physics links to back-up his "opinions"? Funny how Riccardo has not been able to answer the questions I asked him?
  10. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Policy
    Crying against supposed censorship when one is not able to follow a few simple rules unfortunately happens way too often. Clearly those people have no idea at all on what censorship is. One question to John Cook the nerd :) I agree with you that reading comments is often very instructive, but unfortunately there no way for readers to know about new comments on old posts. Could it be possible to show the latest comments on the main page? I noticed that many blog softwares have this functionality, it would be nice to implement it here.
    Response: I've been meaning to create an RSS feed for comments for a while - another on the to-do list :-) In the meantime, here is a webpage of the latest comments.
  11. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    I believe this discussion will continue forever untill Gord does not convince himself that the net flux from an object at Te in an environment at Ta is proportional to (Te^4 -Ta^4). Once he posted this relation but didn't grasp the meaning: the net flux depends on ambient temperature too. By the way, a similar concept also apply to heat conduction and heat convection, the heat flux depends on the temperature gradient for the former and on temperature difference for the latter. In no cases this imply that a cooler object warms a warmer, whch in fact do not happen; less cooling is not warming. Claiming that a dependence on a gradient of some sort violates physical laws would require do dismantel a good part of known physics.
  12. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    shawnhet - re:your post#222 Gee, I see that my post that you are responding to has been deleted. (Perhaps, John Cook could post why....are there more new censorship rules?) ---- Your A-B-C left out the only energy source, the SUN. If A, B or C has more energy being radiated than the Sun provides then energy was CREATED....PERIOD. ---- The "Greenhouse Effect" links state that Heat Energy is RADIATED by the colder atmosphere to a warmer Earth. In case you still don't understand, heat transfer by RADIATION is one of the three methods of Heat Transfer. Heat transfer "Heat transfer is the transition of thermal energy from a hotter object to a cooler object.." Radiation "Radiation is the transfer of heat energy through empty space." "No medium is necessary for radiation to occur, for it is transfered through electromagnetic waves.." (PS: I have not posted this link before) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_transfer Further, The Greenhouse Effect as described by the physical geography in my post#17 explains how longwave radiation from the colder atmosphere heats the ground. Did you not read it?
  13. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, ""Now, when we add more GH gases to the atmosphere, *the surface cannot radiate that heat as effectively* so in order to balance the incoming and outgoing energy higher levels of the atmosphere must radiate more energy than they would OTW. The only way the higher levels of the atmosphere can do this is by raising their temperature. However, given that the Earth has a lapse rate, *the only way for the temperature of the atmosphere to go up is for the temperature of the surface to go up higher than that of the atmosphere*." You have cause and effect reversed and you have CREATED energy. Just like the Microprocessor (Earth) and Heat Sink (atmosphere) cannot "ever" radiate more energy than it receives from the Power Supply (Sun), the Earth and Atmosphere cannot "ever" radiate more energy than it receives from Sun, the only energy source." No, I haven't created energy. The Earth's surface is not radiating all the energy it receives to space. Whenever this occurs, the surface must warm in response. The mechanics of the process involve the eventual heating of the atmosphere to a level where sufficient heat can be radiated to space. The sequence of causation is as follows A-B-C A. because the atmosphere absorbs IR energy and prevents all the heat from the surface from radiating to space B. the temperature of the upper atmosphere must increase but, in order, for the temperature of the upper atmosphere to increase. C.the temperature of the Earth's surface must also increase because the Earth has a lapse rate Nowhere does this involve the creation of energy, as any process that impedes radiation flow will cause warming. IAC, if you don't want to deal with the specifics of my POV, I don't have much to add. You can, of course, disagree with the idea that GH impede the flow of radiation to space, but it is contrary to the laws of science(as you put it ;) to pretend that a hypothetical system where radiation is impeded will not be warmer than one where it isn't or that this increase in warmth is a violation of conservation of energy. "They ALL have heat flowing from the Cold Atmosphere to a Warmer Earth!" No, they all have *radiation* flowing from the atmosphere to the warmer Earth as many others have pointed out. If you keep bringing up examples that don't have the same properties as the greenhouse system, you will not get very far in your argument. Cheers, :)
  14. Other planets are warming
    What if the two scenerios are NOT mutally exclusive? Let's supposed that their IS indeed some sort of phenonema heating planets independantly of human activity. Let's suppose that human activity is also warming the planet. What then?
    Response: If there was some phenomenon warming the solar system - a phenomenon which cannot be solar activity as the sun has shown no long term trend over the last 50 years (if anything a cooling trend) and cannot be cosmic radiation as cosmic rays have also shown no long term trend - if there was some other phenomenon not yet considered that is causing warming throughout the solar system, then that would pose several questions:
    1. Why are not all planets and moons showing warming?
    2. Why isn't the Earth showing more warming? We already know with high understanding the warming effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This warming effect has been confirmed by direct observations. This warming effect is consistent with the amount of heat content observed. So any additional "solar system warming" should add to the warming we're already caused. Where is it?
  15. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Tom Dayton -re:your post #218 Your link ignores the Fact that the Sun is the only energy source. (my very first Post#15 on this forum began with this and continued throughout all my other posts...did you somehow miss all those posts?) The Sun can and does produce all the energy required for the current Earth surface temperature. I have produced many, many examples including Physics links that prove this including many calculations that show that the addition of an atmosphere will cool the Earth, not warm it. The Earth and atmosphere are not energy sources and cannot create energy. Yet, your link has the Atmosphere causing Te to rise from 255K (the temp produced by the only energy source, the Sun) to 288K. Your link has the Atmosphere CREATING energy, an impossibility. Typical. Why don't you read what I have already posted instead of producing endless links that violate the The Law of Conservation of Energy? What purpose do you hope to achieve by posting links like the above? HINTS: - The Law of Conservation of Energy won't change and my answers won't change, no matter how links you produce that violate this and other fundamental Laws of Science. - Repetion is TEDIUS.
  16. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Tom Dayton -re:your post #217 If you read my Post#216 AGAIN, you will see that I explain that all the radiation is ultimately transfered to cold space. HINT: Repetion is TEDIUS.
  17. High CO2 in the past, Part 2
    There's another interesting study that relates to John Cook's "UPDATE" and Steve's post #1. Here's a summary: (i) Basalts from tectonic activity (volcanic eruptions or flood basalts), are highly weatherable and so are efficient in removing CO2 from the atmosphere (on very long timescales). As indicated in the link in John's "UPDATE", the formation of the Himalayas, as the Indian subcontinent crashed (and still crashes) remorselessly into sub-Asia, isn't considered a factor in the cooling associated with CO2 reduction that gave rise to the first Antarctic continental ice in the early Oligocene about 33 million years ago. The Himalayas are large knappe-based granitic structures and granite doesn't weather efficiently. (ii) Basaltic weathering is efficient in warm, moist environments, and can be considered a sort of “Gaia”-ish means of temperature regulation on the very long timescale. A hot, moist world resulting from high greenhouse gas levels promotes weathering, with a consequent reduction of atmospheric CO2, that generally “outcompetes” the release of CO2 into the atmosphere from volcanoes. In a low CO2, cold, dryish world, weathering is inefficient, and volcanic release of CO2 out-competes weathering-induced “draw-down” of CO2 from the atmosphere, keeping the earth from getting very cold. (iii) A recent paper in PNAS [*] suggests that the maintenance of high CO2 during the Paleo-Eocene was a result of the crunching of the Indian sub-continent into sub-Asia, and the subduction of carbonate-loaded plate above the Thethys sea; the carbonates were converted back into CO2 which was released back into the atmosphere. Around 65 MYA the Deccan Traps were formed by a massive flood basalt event associated with the end-Cretaceous extinctions. (iv) As India squeezed-out the Tethys sea around 50 MYA, the CO2-“factory” came to an end, and was overtaken by enhanced weathering from the Deccan Traps as these moved into the warm, moist tropical humid belt. CO2 withdrawl from weathering began to outcompete tectonic release of CO2 into the atmosphere, and by around 33 MYA CO2 levels had dropped to the threshold for polar continental ice sheet formation… [*] D. V. Kent and G. Muttoni (2008) Equatorial convergence of India and early Cenozoic climate trends PNAS 105:16065-16070 http://www.pnas.org/content/105/42/16065.abstract?sid=4e6a6e83-8034-4eef-b0a2-865623be72e1 I can’t find a downloadable version of Kent and Muttoni (2008). However there is a “Commentary” accompanying their article that summarises their proposal quite nicely: users.unimi.it/paleomag/geo2/Irving2008.pdf
  18. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    Very good post. That´s something I occasionally mixed up too. As usual, with the relevant references. Thanks John.
  19. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    Mizimi, I talked about mass balance not precipitations or whatever. As for albedo, given that sea ice grows during winter when there's almost no sun, I doubt it will have any significant effect.
  20. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    Riccardo: but the extent of sea ice affects precipitation in the interior, so I do not see that you can realistically separate the two. In addition, sea ice growth affects albedo whereas land ice decline does not ( at least until bedrock is uncovered).
  21. High CO2 in the past, Part 2
    re #12 There's a huge amount that can be pointed out in relation to your comment HumanityRules. Here's a few relevant points: (i)The data in Figure 2 above is an extremely broad scale analysis from a model of atmospheric CO2 based on estimated weathering/continental positions etc with a 10 million year resolution, compared with a massively smoothed proxy record. The aim is to demonstrate at extremely low resolution, the broad change in radiative forcing resulting from a combination of progressively increasing solar constant and very broad range variations in atmospheric CO2. (ii) A realistic analysis of the relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and climate can only be made by considering discrete proxy temperature and proxy CO2 data, and causal relationships can only be assessed where these temperature and CO2 proxies are contemporaneous. If this is done [see review by Royer (2005) – click on link in John Cook’s summary above ; this should actually be Royer (2006)!), there is a broad correspondence on a much tighter time resolution relevant to greenhouse gas-climate coupling. (iii) This analysis has been extended in recent years, and indicates a number of further examples where contemporaneous temperature proxies and CO2 proxies have been analyzed. In general where CO2 levels are high, temperature proxies are high, and onset of cold/glacial conditions are associated with reduced atmospheric CO2. I’ve dumped a number of more recent papers just below [*]. There is now also a wealth of papers defining the onset of glacial conditions in the Miocene associated with the drop of atmospheric CO2 levels below thresholds that allow build up of polar continental ice sheets. (iv) focussing on the Carboniferous and your specific comment. While it was thought previously that there was a single Carboniferous glaciations/cold period associated with a long slow and rather massive pull down of atmospheric CO2 into plants (and their deposition and eventual burial under conditions where oxidative decay was suppressed), this period seems to be separated into an early glacial period and a later cold period, separated by a warmer spell. Unfortunately there is only one atmospheric CO2 proxy contemporaneous with this warmer spell in between the two cold periods, but this proxy indicates a CO2 level around 1500 ppm. So it seems not only very likely that the cold Carboniferous periods were the result of massive pull down and sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere, but that the intermediate “non-cold” interval was associated with a period of raised CO2. This is described in Royer’s review (click on John Cook’s link above and see section 3.4). [*] Since Royer’s compilation of proxy CO2 data and Phanerozoic estimates of earth temperature regimes, there has been a large amount of new data which supports a broad coupling of earth temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels: R.E. Came, J.M. Eiler, J. Veizer et al (2007) "Coupling of surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era" Nature 449, 198-202 W. M. Kurschner et al (2008) “The impact of Miocene atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuations on climate and the evolution of the terrestrial ecosystem” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 499-453. D. L. Royer (2008) “Linkages between CO2, climate, and evolution in deep time” Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 407-408 Zachos JC (2008) “An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics” Nature 451, 279-283. Doney SC et al (2007) “Carbon and climate system coupling on timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene” Ann. Rev. Environ. Resources 32, 31-66. Horton DE et al (2007) “Orbital and CO2 forcing of late Paleozoic continental ice sheets” Geophys. Res. Lett. L19708 (Oct. 11 2007). B. J. Fletcher et al. (2008) “Atmospheric carbon dioxide linked with Mesozoic and early Cenozoic climate change” Nature Geoscience 1, 43-48. etc. etc.
  22. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    OFF TOPIC (but only just) Interesting paper in GRL about artic ice "Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979–2008" Interesting because it looks at different mechanisms for ice loss in the artic than temperature. In short they found a relationship between artic ice minimum and cyclone activity (strength). Of course this only shows a relationship in doesn't give cause or effect. Although the authors, as is their right, seculate on this. The simple idea that hotter planet=less artic ice maybe too simple to explain reality. An inconvinient truth?
    Response: Thanks for the link. I've updated the link to a publically accessible version. Simmonds 2009 is an interesting paper - it basically confirms the results of Gascard 2008 who found cyclonic conditions in 2007 transported sea ice out of the Arctic. It also repeats the conclusion of Nghiem 2007 who found that similar cyclonic conditions have occured before but that with the long term trend of thinning Arctic sea ice, the sea ice is much more vulnerable to getting broken up and transported out of the Arctic. I go into more detail elsewhere explaining Arctic sea icemelt - I suggest you post any on-topic comments there.
  23. High CO2 in the past, Part 2
    I wonder about the relevance of this sort of analysis based on that sort of timescale. In the first paragraph you mention the last ice age was 11,000years ago. I don't know what that means in terms of mean global temp or change in radiative forcing but I'm going to speculate a noticable shift in terms on the vertical axis of the graph above. And I think we would agree some (I'd say most) of that shift has been due to natural causes. So the end of the carboniferous/start of the permian represents maybe +10million years of low radiative forcing, two periods of glaciation but obviously intermediate periods of non-glaciation. How did the earth come out of those glaciation periods when the radiative forcing remains low? Surely there is some lack of detail in these numbers particularly as you go further back in time. The relative smooth movement of the data early on and the more up/down in recent times suggests that. On a superficial level it tells a nice story but I'm not sure it really details the movement of earths climate over that period.
  24. It's freaking cold!
    On this issue, "climate change" is more apt than "global warming". And "climate is weather averaged over time" is more explicit than "weather is not climate." The 'weather' skeptic's defense will be: "They do it too. If there's a warm spell, the believers will say its due to global warming." After years of temperature increases, it is harder for believers to restrain such statements. But they should be restrained. Weather IS variable. In addition, maybe policymakers should just whisper among themselves, about a current event occurring more frequently in a global warming future...to avoid the shortening misquote, that GW caused the event??? WEATHER'S ONE MONTH EFFECT... ...even averaged over a month, local weather anomalies (dynamical fluctuations, more-or-less independent of forced long-term climate change) are much larger than the global mean temperature change of recent decades. Weather fluctuations or 'noise' have a noticeable effect even on monthly-mean global-mean temperature, especially in Northern Hemisphere winter. Weather has little effect on global-mean temperature averaged over several months or more. The primary cause of variations on time scales from a few months to a few years is ocean dynamics, especially the Southern Oscillation (El Nino-La Nina cycle)... Columbia.edu COLD EXTREMES HAVE WARMED MORE... In the last 50 years for the land areas sampled, there has been a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights...Decreases in the annual occurrence of cold days and increases in hot days, while widespread, are generally less marked. The distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures have not only shifted to higher values, consistent with overall warming, but the cold extremes have warmed more than the warm extremes over the last 50 years. IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 3.3 REGIONAL EXCEPTIONALISM FOR GW FUTURE COLD SPELLS..? It is also likely that a warmer future climate would have fewer frost days (i.e., nights where the temperature dips below freezing)...There is likely to be a decline in the frequency of cold air outbreaks (i.e., periods of extreme cold lasting from several days to over a week) in (Northern Hemisphere) winter in most areas. Exceptions could occur in areas with the smallest reductions of extreme cold in western North America, the North Atlantic and southern Europe and Asia due to atmospheric circulation changes. IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 10.1
  25. Antarctica is gaining ice
    Sure chris, I did not mean to suggest that ice loss is _not_ happening, just to point out that we should be careful. The last thing the public debate needs, is accusations of "alarmism" with some degree of justification to them. Which could easily happen if this ice mass change, for instance, turns out to be a quasi-periodic phenomenon somewhat akin to the PDO. Another thing I am wondering about, is the net effect of the situation underlying the (rather slow) increase in sea ice. Albedo should be increasing a little bit, but what about the heat loss from sea? Could the extra warming of the sea and the increasing sea ice be two aspects of the same circulatory phenomenon? Maybe a stupid question, I'm not very much into this :-)
  26. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, re 216 it is not the temperature of the atmosphere that inhibits the cooling of the surface, but its chemical composition. As to why this should be impeded for the simple reason that some IR is absorbed before it can be emitted to space. I think that amount of energy emitted to space must eventually balance with the amount of energy received from space. Your heat sink example misses the relevant issues of the GH effect namely the lapse rate and the fact that some IR energy is absorbed prior to emission. No one is arguing that energy in shouldn't equal energy out. THe point is that one can potentially have many different operating temperatures for *the surface of the microprocessor* depending on how efficiently it can radiate its heat energy. If the microprocessor is less efficient at radiating its heat energy(perhaps because it is wrapped in insulation), then its temperature goes up, but not because the temperature of the heat sink warmed it, but because it could not radiate *its own heat* as effectively. Just so you have a relatively complete picture of what happens in the atmosphere per my POV- a GH gas free atmosphere would dissipate heat directly from its surface, giving it an average surface temperature of ~-18C. Now, when we add more GH gases to the atmosphere, *the surface cannot radiate that heat as effectively* so in order to balance the incoming and outgoing energy higher levels of the atmosphere must radiate more energy than they would OTW. The only way the higher levels of the atmosphere can do this is by raising their temperature. However, given that the Earth has a lapse rate, *the only way for the temperature of the atmosphere to go up is for the temperature of the surface to go up higher than that of the atmosphere*. This explanation has nothing to do with the temperature of the atmosphere increasing the temperature of the surface anti-thermodynamically(by heat flowing from cold to warm), as you seem to think. All heat energy comes from the sun, however, the physical properties of the atmosphere and the need to balance the incoming and outgoing energy combine to raise the surface temperature by changing *how heat moves from hot to cold*. Cheers, :)
  27. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    Mizimi, this post was actually devoted to clarify the difference between sea and land ice. Mass balance should be done for land ice, being sea ice seasonal and formed by compleately different processes.
  28. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    According to the graph, antartic sea ice has grown in area by some 0.7 x 10E12 m2 in 23 years, so I would expect a measurable increase in albedo. Also pertinent is the mass of sea ice. Assuming a mean ice thickness of 62cm this equates to .45 x 10E12 m3 of ice...or 450 Gtonnes...about equal to the land loss from 2002 to 2005. Agreed the rates of growth/loss are not in balance, but would we expect them to be? As sea ice extends, so I would expect less snowfall in the interior and thus less replenishment of land-ice melt. Are there any longer time series for Antartic ice cover?
  29. Antarctica is gaining ice
    yes, agreed SNratio (re #11). However there are longer term measures of Antarctic ice mass loss from altimetry that are consistent with a nett mass loss in Antarctica (which is still pretty small in relation to the vast amounts of Antarctic ice) [*]. We should also note that the corrections applied by Bevis et al. (2009) suggest that a bias in ice mass loss from GRACE measurements amounts to ~33 Gt/yr [**]. This is a significant, but small, proportion of the total Antarctic ice loss determined by GRACE (see figures in John Cook's summary above): [*] E. Rignot et al. (2008) Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling Nature Geoscience 1, 106 - 110 (2008) [**]Bevis et al. (2009) para [19]; page 9:
    We can estimate the potential magnitude of the ice mass biases by noting that if the average velocity prediction bias of ~5 mm/yr evident in Figure 5 is developed over ~2 × 10^6 km2, an area somewhat smaller than that of West Antarctica, this would cause an apparent but spurious ice loss of ~33 Gt yr-1, which is a significant fraction of all published ice mass rates derived from GRACE [Velicogna and Wahr, 2006; Chen et al., 2006; Ramillien et al., 2006; Sasgen et al., 2007a]. However, it is not possible to arrive at an accurate numerical estimate of the impact of our geodetic measurements on GRACE ice mass change solutions without finding a reliable means to interpolate between our point measurements of vertical crustal velocity.
    The authors (Bevis et al, 2009) also point out that GRACE should make reliable estimates of any further enhanced acceleration in ice mass loss (or sudden jumps in ice mass loss), since the post-glacial rebound (that has to be corrected for in mass change estimations) doesn't vary much on the interannual timescale.
  30. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    I'd also like to add this papers regarding sea ice in Antarctica: 1) Stratospheric ozone: Shindell & Schmidt 2004 2) Freshening (and stratification) of surface waters: Jacobs et al 2002 3) Snow turned into ice: Cavalieri et al 1997, where they say: "The observed hemispheric asymmetry in these trends is consistent with a modeled response to a carbon dioxide-induced climate warming". Markus & Cavalieri 2006 (pdf available here
  31. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    Regarging sea ice increase in Antarctica, there's also a good summary in this NASA note. They also mention that flooded sea ice turns snow to ice.
  32. An overview of Antarctic ice trends
    Clearly these disparate phenomena (land versus sea ice) are better explained by the Sun than by greenhouse gases because, uh, actually no, it's all because of ocean cycles and stuff and, erm, or really this is all just a case of unreliable data and analyses -- the scientists are just trying to get more funding by producing confusing results! More seriously (but perhaps still trivially), has this measurably increased the albedo of Antarctica and thereby provided any negative feedback at all? Or, more generally, are there important impacts (besides effects on sea ice) of warmer salty water being overlaid by a thicker layer of cold fresher water?
  33. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, for a Stefan-Boltzman calculation of an atmosphere-free Earth's temperature (i.e., naked exposure of the Earth's surface to the infinite heat sink of outer space), see the web pages by Nolan Atkins that are part of his Lyndon State College course, but only the two sequential web pages here and the next one. Let's first come to understanding only with that case before adding the atmosphere. (So please don't reply with calculations about what happens with an atmosphere.) Do you agree with the calculations, results, and interpretations on that short sequence of two web pages?
  34. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, your example is missing a piece from its initial condition. At the very beginning, before you add the atmosphere as a heat sink, you must have outer space as a heat sink.
  35. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Shawnhet - re:your post 215 Yes, it has been covered before....many times. Why would you even think that the colder atmosphere would somehow cause the Earth's surface to not cool as quickly? How can a cooler atmosphere impede the Earth's radiation when the Earth provides the energy to heat the colder atmosphere? The Sun HEATED the Earth, and the Earth's radiation HEATED the the atmosphere and all the Radiation is then transferred to cold space. Look, let's examine a common device known as a Heat Sink. It is used to cool electronic devices like the Microprocessor in your computer. The electrical power (Sun) heats the Microprocessor (Earth) just like the Sun heats the Earth. Lets say the Microprocessor operates with (and has to dissipate) 10 watts of power (Sun) and it's surface area is 0.01 m^2. The Electromagnetic Field radiated by the Microprocessor (Earth) is 10 Watts/0.01 m^2 = 1000 w/m^2. The surface temp of the Microprocessor can be calculated by the Stefan - Boltzmann Law. Power/Area = Boltzmann's Constant X Temp^4 Temp^4 = 1000 w/m^2 / 5.67 X 10^-8 = 1.76 X 10^10 Temp = 364 K or 91 deg C We want the Microprocessor to drop in temp by placing a Heat Sink on it that will only be heated to 25 deg C or 298 K A Heat Sink (atmosphere) is initially at room temperature (20 deg C) and is placed on the Microprocessor (Earth) with a slight air gap so heat transfer by radiation is dominant. The Heat Sink has to have a larger surface area. Power/Area = 5.67 X 10^-8 X 298^4 = 447 w/m^2 Area = 10 Watts/447 = 0.022 m^2 The Microprocessor and the Heat Sink will now operate at a temperature of 25 deg C. So what happened here? The Electrical power provided is 10 Watts (the Sun). The Microprocessor (Earth) that was operating at 91 deg C transferred heat energy to the cooler Heat Sink (atmosphere)(initially at 20 deg C) raising it's temp to 25 deg C. The Microprocessor (Earth) and Heat Sink (atmosphere) stabilize at a temperature of 25 deg C and 10 watts of power is still dissipated to the suroundings (analagous to cold space). Did the Heat Sink (atmosphere)impede the Microprocessor (Earth) radiation?....Of course NOT! Did the Heat Sink (atmosphere) cause the Microprocessor (Earth) to "not cool as quickly" and increase in temperature?....Of course NOT!...EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE OCCURED! ----------------------- The only difference between this example and the SUN - EARTH - ATMOSPHERE - COLD SPACE system is that the Heat Sink was assumed to have an emissivity of 1. If the Heat Sink (atmosphere) had an emissivity less than 1 it would not have absorbed all the heat energy of the Microprocessor (Earth) and would have had a temp lower than 25 deg C....just like the real atmosphere is colder than the Earth. ------------------------- This may be one of my last posts on this forum. Too much repetion is required explaining the same Physics over and over again and answering the same questions over and over. And, there is FAR too much censorship!
  36. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availibility are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics; some of which are presently water stressed areas... Drought affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. IPCC AR4 WGII Summary for Policymakers. In a warmer future climate...Models project increased summer dryness and winter wetness in most parts of the northern middle and high latitudes. Summer dryness indicates a greater risk of drought. Along with the risk of drying, there is an increased chance of intense precipitation and flooding due to the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. This has already been observed and is projected to continue because in a warmer world, precipitation tends to be concentrated into more intense events, with longer periods of little precipitation in between. Therefore, intense and heavy downpours would be interspersed with longer relatively dry periods... IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 10.1 The warmer climate therefore increases the risks of both drought - where it is not raining - and floods - where it is - but at different times and or places. For instance, the summer of 2oo2 in Europe brought widespread floods but was followed a year later in 2003 by record-breaking heat waves and drought. The distribution and timing of floods and drought is most profoundly affected by the cycle of EL Nino events... ...overall trends in precipitation are indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index...which is a measure of soil moisture using precipitation and crude estimates of changes in evaporation. (The PDSI graph shown roughly increases below the "0" line until about 1977, after which its all above the line.) IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 3.2 Drought is easier to measure (than heavy precipitation events) because of its long duration...The Palmer Drought Severity Index calculated from the middle of the 20th century shows a large drying trend over many Northern Hemisphere land areas since the mid-1950's, with widespread drying over much of southern Eurasia, northern Africa, Canada and Alaska...and an opposite trend in eastern North and South America...Decreases in precipitation over land since the 1950s are the likely main cause for the drying trends, although large surface warming during the last two to three decades has also likely contributed to the drying... IPCC AR4 WGI FAQ 3.3
  37. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, re #210 (and I apologize if this has already been covered). If the atmosphere can absorb and emit IR radiation won't this imply that the surface will not cool as quickly as it would OTW? If not, why not? Put another way, wouldn't the complete absence of GH gases mean that all the incoming solar radiation would be radiated away from a lower height in the atmosphere(since there would be nothing to impede the radiation). Since Earth has a lapse rate(ie temperature decreases as we rise above the surface), doesn't any absorption of IR radiation in the atmosphere necessitate that the surface must get warmer? If not, why not? Cheers, :)
  38. Antarctica is gaining ice
    It should be noted that the observational period here is quite short, so one should be careful about firm conclusions. And, the precise extent may be somewhat lower than presented: Geodetic measurements of vertical crustal velocity in West Antarctica and the implications for ice mass balance Received 20 May 2009; accepted 28 August 2009; published 13 October 2009. Citation: Bevis, M., et al. (2009), Geodetic measurements of vertical crustal velocity in West Antarctica and the implications for ice mass balance, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 10, Q10005, doi:10.1029/2009GC002642. "We present preliminary geodetic estimates for vertical bedrock velocity at twelve survey GPS stations in the West Antarctic GPS Network, an additional survey station in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, and eleven continuous GPS stations distributed across the continent. The spatial pattern of these velocities is not consistent with any postglacial rebound (PGR) model known to us. Four leading PGR models appear to be overpredicting uplift rates in the Transantarctic Mountains and West Antarctica and underpredicting them in the peninsula north of 65°. This discrepancy cannot be explained in terms of an elastic response to modern ice loss (except, perhaps, in part of the peninsula). Therefore, our initial geodetic results suggest that most GRACE ice mass rate estimates, which are critically dependent on a PGR correction, are systematically biased and are overpredicting ice loss for the continent as a whole."
  39. The albedo effect
    re #17, so Palle's graph in 2004 shows a drop in albedo in 1997. Palle's graph in 2009, doesn't show a drop in albedo in 1997 [see Figure 2 (top) of Palle et al (2009) [*]; the pre-publication manuscript can be read by clicking on John Cook's "Palle 2008" link in the top summary)]. Palle's graph in 2004 shows a large rise in albedo in 2003. Palle's graph in 2009 doesn't show a large rise in albedo in 2003. My conclusion would be that Palle's determination of albedo measures isn't particularly robust (or at least wasn't in 2004), and the suggestion that there was a drop in albedo in 1997 coupled with an insinuation that this might have something to do with the very warm 1998, is flawed. After all if Palle has reinterpreted earler work that suggested a "distinct drop in albedo in 1997", to conclude in later work that there wasn't a "distinct drop in albedo in 1997", I don't see the point of pretending that the data still suggests a drop in albedo in 1997. Or do you have a good reason to reject Palle's own reinterpretation of his earlier work? [*] Palle et al. (2009) Inter-annual variations in Earth's reflectance, 1999-2007 J. Geophys. Res. 114, D00D03
  40. Philippe Chantreau at 16:28 PM on 7 November 2009
    CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    I think Gord is confused. He (or she) is confusing a physical phenomenon with the representation of it. He can apply formulas but lacks a real understanding of the physical phenomena they describe. I don't care whether he is an engineer, student engineer, whatever. He may be more skilled that I at playing with formulas but he does not understand the stuff he keeps on posting in the belief it answers pertinent questions. I am unimpressed. Everyone I could ask abouth this who studies or teaches physics confirmed my understanding of it. NASA confirms it, every single physics link out there confirms it as well if one looks close enough. He is considering one side of a heat transfer in isolation although that side does not exist in isolation of the larger transfer that makes it possible in the first place. The overall exchange of energy between the surface and atmosphere complies with the 2nd law. I believe that I made a number of petinent points in post #149 that were not answered appropriately. Gord keeps on repeating stuff that does not, in fact, support his interpretation. OK so the Sun heats the Earth, which then heats the atmosphere, what happens at night? If there is no such thing as a GH effect, why are the daily temps, nightly temps and average temps not similar to those found on the Moon? What do we have on Earth that prevents our temps to drop near absolute zero at night? Oceans? Why does Antarctica NOT drop near absolute zero during the Austral winter? Why is the surface of Venus warmer than Mercury's and how does Venus maintain nearly identical temperatures on its sunny and shady sides? Makes NO SENSE without a GH effect. Looking back at post # 168, Gord's calculations bring 2 objects in equilibrium both radiating 90W when we started with 90 and 60. Looks strange. We started with a total of 150, the object transferring energy has not cooled and still radiates at 90W, but the other one has warmed and now also radiates at 90W. A total of 180, compared to the 150 we started with. Looks funny. I don't believe Gord knows what he's doing. I have already spent way too much time on this but it appears to me that his calculations on Earth temps are equally mistaken, and what I found in the response to the G&T paper makes a lot more sense. Response to the Gerlich and Tscheuchner paper disputing the existence of GH effect: http://rabett-run-labs.googlegroups.com/web/G%26T2.11.doc?hl=en&gda=GiEkiT8AAAAXmxShcFP2xrtZ1iQa9EYObLHe1BSUDn5EEukXYSRaprw7opP7C43-G-AfaR61VoGccyFKn-rNKC-d1pM_IdV0 If nothing colder can radiate EM radiation, how can I see a glowstick whose surface is much colder than the surface of my eyes? Why is NASA insulating spacecrafts with radiant barriers since, according to Gord, they can not radiate any IR back to the body they insulate? How can the action of cooling a spectrometer CREAT a IR flux going against an immensely larger and warmer body (Earth's surface?). And even if that was the case, why would the IR flux observed increase as altitude decreases and the proximity to the larger warmer body increases? And what emits this IR radiation in the first place? It makes no sense whatsoever.
  41. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Upon reviewing some of my previous posts (which I have stored on my computer), I find that they have also been deleted. I no longer have any desire to participate in this forum.
  42. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    (This is my fourth attempt to get this posted without deletion - now subjected to new censorship) It appears that constant repetition of my posts are still required. Does anybody out there understand what "continuous" means? The Stefan-Boltzmann Law: Power/Area = Boltzmanns Contant X Temp^4 (watts/m^2) The only time there will not be an Electromagnetic Field produced is when T = 0. Clearly, if T is greater than absolute zero an Electromagnetic Field is produced....continuously. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law is A LAW OF SCIENCE. When some people say the EM field is not continuous it is an obvious contradiction of the Stefan-Boltzmann Law. -------------------- I have also repeatedly posted Physics Links that Heat Radiation is heat transfer by Electromagnetic Waves. Heat Radiation is heat transfer by electromagnetic waves. (see my post #203) Heat Flux is the representation of Heat Radiation as a Vector quantity that uses w/m^2 as the Magnitude of this Vector quantity. The w/m^2 is, of course, used in The Stefan-Boltzmann Law. Heat flux (see my post #203) Yet, there are people who continue to say that Heat Radiation and Heat Flux are not representative of Electromagnetic Waves. ----------------------- I have also repeatedly posted Physics Links that describe Interference including links that explain the phenomena very clearly using continuous waves. Interference (wave propagation) (see my Post #152) Cancellation of Light - Bubble example where light is totally cancelled (continuous waves) - Constructive and Destructive Interference as it relates to Diffraction (continuous waves). - more on Constructive and Destructive Interference (continuous waves) (the links are in my post #152) Despite all the evidence (known for hundreds of years) and all the evidence in their daily lives that the interference of continuous EM waves (eg. like Solar light) produces continuous interference patterns, some people still ignore these simple facts. ------------------------ Arguing with people that ignore these obvious facts and produce posts that contradict Laws of Science, is not only Tedious, it is Frustrating. We are in the 21 Century and this Science has been well known and used for over a hundred years. It would actually be funny, if it wasn't so sad. --------------------------- PS: John Cook will be deleting my comments if I copy and paste material from past comments. Presumeably, this will also include the Laws Of Science and Physics Links that I have previously posted. Since Laws of Science and Physics do not change, please do not attempt to re-write these Laws of Science or Physics based on "opnions". My hands are now effectively "tied behind my back" as far as disputing "opinion based re-writes" of these fundamental truths. Opinions are now in control, not the actual Science. Hopefully, John Cook will also delete those constantly repeated questions directed to me that required repetion of my previous posts. If this is not applicable to those people that constantly ask the same repeated questions of me, I will simply respond that the question has already been answered. Oh well, it was fun before the censorship became stiffleing. It would actually be funny, if it wasn't so sad.
  43. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, you might want to follow a sort of "lesson for laymen" (skip the first 10 minutes or so) given by Prof. Archer from the University of Chicago on the very basics of the greenhouse effect. Hopefully a full lesson from a climatoligist will clarify the missing concepts.
  44. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    shawnhet - Re:your post #209 You said... "So, if greenhouse gases keep the Earth's surface from falling below -20C(or whatever number), doesn't the temperature of the surface have to rise above that when the sun is hitting it?" First, you have to get Cause and Effect correct. The Earth is heated by the Sun (the only energy source). The Earth's radiation then heats the atmosphere to -20 deg C. The colder atmosphere does not heat the warmer Earth. The Sun, being the ONLY energy source, HAS to be the cause of the Earth's surface temperature. I have already posted numerous examples of how the Sun can produce the current Earth surface temperature. Don't you recall my posts directly to you on this subject? --------------- You said... "Doesn't the fact that greenhouse gases absorb energy necessitate that the surface temp of the Earth must be greater than it would OTW be?" No, of course not. The Greenhouse Gases only absorb enough IR energy from the Earth to heat up to -20 deg C. A body of -20 deg C cannot Heat a warmer Earth. I have also produced many posts on this before. Did you not see them? ----------------- Please review my previous posts before asking questions that have already been answered. That will save both of us time and needless repetition.
  45. CO2 is not the only driver of climate
    Gord, re: #183 So, if greenhouse gases keep the Earth's surface from falling below -20C(or whatever number), doesn't the temperature of the surface have to rise above that when the sun is hitting it? Doesn't the fact that greenhouse gases absorb energy necessitate that the surface temp of the Earth must be greater than it would OTW be? Cheers, :)
  46. The albedo effect
    17#..sorry should have mentioned it is on page 13.
  47. The albedo effect
    Chris: the original 2004 graph is here: http://science.larc.nasa.gov/ceres/STM/2005-05/loeb_earthshine.pdf which contests the accuracy of earthshine data. Palle's graph shows a distinct drop in albedo in 1997 which was followed by a hot 1998.
  48. The albedo effect
    RSVP, there's no definition of a wavelength range. In general the albedo varies with wavelegth but is usually measured over wide range. As stated in this post, the earthshine measurements cover 0.4-0.7 microns while CERES data cover 0.3-5.0 microns. They both cover the visible spectrum, where the sun radiation mainly is.
  49. The albedo effect
    Question: From the discussions so far, I get the impression that albedo refers to the visible portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, but I didnt see this explained anywhere. Is there a defined band or cutoff frequency?
    Response: Albedo refers to reflected sunlight, which includes UV light, visible light and wavelengths above the visible spectrum. This covers radiation from around 0.3 microns to 1.2 microns. Visible light is part of this spectrum: roughly 0.4 microns to 0.7 microns.
  50. The albedo effect
    Henry Pool, not sure this is what you were looking for, but here you find the annual minimum concentration time serie while here are the monthly values. I'm going to ignore your last complain given the effort we put to point at the relevant physics you probably didn't look at.

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