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mbryson at 05:54 AM on 30 August 2018The silver lining of fake news
I first got worried about denialism as a grad student studying philosophy of science, as religious fanatics and politicians in the US began promoting 'creation science'. Some colleagues thought paying attention to that absurd movement was foolish, but it seems I'm now having the last (somewhat bitter) laugh. The threat posed by such points of view lies in the policy implications— largely educational in the case of evolution denial, but truly frightening in vaccine and climate denial. When public authorities declare their independence from facts and evidence, we are all in danger... @dkeierleber, Paul Krugman has commented forcefully on the fictional 'economics' that dominates public economic discourse... Improving education is generally a slow, uphill effort, but when causes and effects are not obviously linked to voters, working connect the dots for them seems to be part of what needs doing.
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ubrew12 at 05:42 AM on 30 August 2018The silver lining of fake news
This website talks a lot about 'inoculation' against fake news, as a method of countering it. So, I guess there is a 'silver lining' to fake news, in the same way that typhoid fever led to the 'silver lining' of a vaccine. Still, surrounded by people screaming from a raging infection of 'truthiness', its hard not to mourn what was, and is no longer. We can innoculate against fake news, but we can never put that demon back in the box.
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dkeierleber at 03:27 AM on 30 August 2018The silver lining of fake news
I think this is being oversimplified. It’s a complex issue. It is enticing to dismiss those who mistrust science as being uneducated on the subject. But that leads us to the same dead end of thinking all we have to do is tell the real facts and people will come around to the right way of thinking. Research doesn’t support that view.
As reported here in the past, regarding climate change, the more educated a conservative is the less likely they are to be persuaded by facts. Presentation of science facts drives deniers further into denial. So I don’t think the problem lies with denialist falsehoods. In my experience, climate change denialists are in love with the lamest over-simplifications. How often have you read the comment about how temperatures could have risen in the past if the cavemen had no SUVs to drive? Ever hear any denialist try to use Roy Spencer’s argument about natural variation tied to the Pacific multi-decadal oscillation?
Things are even worse on the economic front. Workers who have been profoundly hurt by supply side fiction insist that the wealthy pay too much in taxes. Educated upper middle class conservatives think the top tax rate in America’s Golden Age (the 2 decades after WWII) was 20%. Trying to explain the idea of a progressive tax to young conservatives shows how our education system has changed over the years. We were too distracted by defending evolution in public education to notice that the curricula on basic economic theory took a wrong turn somewhere. Now it seems the age old divide between property rights and majority rule is becoming an economic war and the rich are winning. That doesn’t bode well for the sanctity of our democracy.
Research has shown physical differences in brain patterns between conservatives and liberals. So part of the problem is that some of us tend to believe those in positions of authority while others tend to ask how they rose to that position.
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CBDunkerson at 22:31 PM on 29 August 2018The silver lining of fake news
"Climate change used to be the sole target of this."
Unfortunately, that just isn't true. Evolution is an obvious example, but there are many others. The largest and longest running is likely the whole Southern delusion about their 'noble' Civil War ancestors. The most impactful would probably be the insanity of supply-side / trickle-down / 'give all the money to the rich so they can hire more people' / feudalism 'economic theory'... which HAD nearly died out after the Great Depression, but then came roaring back after the oil embargo and Reagan.
Et cetera.
Know nothingism is not some new phenomena in US life. It has been with us for a very long time and has been steadily growing to swallow the Republican party for my entire lifetime (starting with Nixon's 'southern strategy' to embrace the racist narrative rather than letting it politically die when the Democrats finally grew out of it). Climate change was never more than a side skirmish in this ongoing war of reality vs delusion.
I was warning about this growing problem 20 years ago... it is just that we have finally reached the inevitable end stage where a Republican president has to constantly deny observed reality because that is the only way to pretend their policy positions make sense.
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MA Rodger at 20:57 PM on 29 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
indy222 @89.
Yes, the message about the quantity being used as the denominator to calculate the Garrett Relation constant λ being cumulative global GDP has been recieved. I even discovered what your GWP acronym means - 'Gross World Product' (= global GDP) which was useful as the Wikkithing page on 'Gross World Product' gives a table of gGDP (1990 prices) from 2014 back to one million BC allowing a calculation of Cumulative gGDP. It has a slower accumlation than that shown by the graphic in Frame 241 of your presentation but the general scheme of things is apparent.
And while the cumulative trace sits higher up the graph because it is a "more sharply upwardly moving curve", the acceleration of an exponential function remains proportionately in tact. So Cumulatiive gGDP (C) will be accelerating at 3% per annum and as Global Energy Use (a) is showing no signs of acceleration but is instead rising in a linear fashion, the Garrett Relation constant λ cannot be constant for a = λC to hold. And that has far more significance that a "lost in the weeds" argument.
Of course, the Garrett hypothesis, in attempting to narrow projected Global Energy Use, it does not entirely rely on λ being constant (rather the slowness of that acceleration would suffice). But his analysis does need to set out the acceleration if it is to be considered useful.
And beyond that, while the Garrett hypothesis appears an interesting idea, I would question the theoretical basis of it on a number of grounds (which is of course off-topic for this thread). -
nigelj at 18:11 PM on 29 August 2018The silver lining of fake news
The Nixon administration was not Americas finest hour, and indeed started the backlash against the sensible altruist economics that started with the "New Deal", but Nixon was surprisingly good with environmental legislation, and he started the EPA and vehicle emissions standards.
At that time there was a level of political consensus in America on environmental matters, but a coalition of ranchers and miners then started to oppose environmentalism in the late 1970's. Anti environmentalism really gained traction with Ronald Reagon, and he downgraded some environmental legislation, and it has unfortunately now become a GOP core ideology culminating with their climate science denial but clearly not limited to this as anyone looking at people like Scot Pruitt would know (and his replacement).
I was reading this yesterday. From Vox news : How Republicans came to embrace anti-environmentalism.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:31 PM on 29 August 2018The silver lining of fake news
I agree that things are slowly being corrected, slowly improving the development of a sustainable better future for humanity. And I am also aware that there are many powerful wealthy people who understand that their unjustified developed perceptions of superiority relative to others are threatened by that improving understanding of the required correction of what has developed.
Primitive human nature is a limited worldview (more self-interested, more tribal-limited, less interested in actions being sustainable or in avoiding harm to others). Modern Civilization is the development of expanded worldviews (more altruistic, accepting of other sub-tribes based on altruistic evaluation of the actions of those sub-tribes).
Tragically, Modern Civilization is still full of plundering bandits who try to get away with benefiting from harmful unsustainable actions, or who fight against correcting unsustainable unjustified social beliefs. And many of those type of people have become very powerful, particularly with the assistance of misdirected critical-thinking and science-minded approaches to misleading advertising developed to appeal to people who are willing to be easily impressed (and by the uniting the diversity of social and fiscal conservatives, all right-wings, to support each other's unjustified interests in a last ditch hope to still win regionally).
Developing civilization is always challenged by the ease with which people can devolve to a more limited worldview. It is hard work to ensure that actions are governed by good helpful altruistic reasoning (GHAR).
Improving awareness and understanding and acting altruistically is hard work for a self-governing individual (especially when understandably harmful and unsustainable activity is allowed to compete for popularity and profitability, and worse when the employment and tax revenue of such activities result in regional leaders trying to promote and protect those activities rather than correct things). It is even harder for the responsible members of a society trying to responsibly govern or limit the behaviour of all of its members. John Stuart Mill identified the problem in “On Liberty” when presenting that a society had the collective ability to properly educate all of its members. He stated: “If society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, society has itself to blame for the consequences.”
But the harder work of GHAR in pursuit of improved awareness and understanding of what is really going on, and how to collaborate to develop a lasting better future for all of humanity's diversity of tribes, has always been worth the effort.
Many people have written about the unsustainable damaging ways that things have been developing, particularly in the USA, particularly since the Nixon Presidency, and particularly whenever the Right-wing have won significant control of power in the USA. And that unsustainable and damaging direction of USA development has been contaminating what happens elsewhere in the world. Admittedly there was a lot of bad stuff done by international leadership including the USA before Nixon's time, but people were starting to become more aware. And even today there are many people doing the harder work of becoming more aware, having a larger worldview. Climate science and the need to curtail the burning of fossil fuels is an example of a developed problem with signs that the problem is slowly being overcome, with occasional damaging set-backs.
There seems to be a correlation between the way that USA Right-wing leadership changed and the timing of the UN report about significant strides made by the global collaborative effort to figure out what was going wrong globally and the corrections required for the benefit of the future of humanity. The Stockholm Conference in 1972 unmistakably indicated that many of the developed profitable and popular activities were unsustainable and harmful. Those unsustainable and harmful activities developed 'because of freedom to do things' (because of a lack of regulation or restriction by global leadership in business and politics). That undeniable understanding of what was going on was a threat to the ideology of fiscal conservatives (and social conservatives). They wanted more freedom to do as they pleased, and to impose their 'being discovered to be unreasonable and harmful beliefs' on others.
In addition to increased public awareness of the unacceptability of what the fiscal and social conservatives did not want to give up, there was improved awareness that some winners were undeserving. That improved awareness would be a serious threat to the perceptions of superiority they had gotten away with developing. The outrage of the Right-wing against the developing understanding of the required corrections starts at about that time, at the time of the Nixon Presidency, at the time of the UN Stockholm Conference.
Al Gore wrote about it in “The Assault on Reason”. And I am currently reading Jonah Goldberg's “Suicide of the West - How the rebirth of tribalism, populism, nationalism, and identity politics is destroying American Democracy”. Neither book makes a connection between the improving global altruism and the increased aggressiveness of the Right-wing against being corrected, that is a connection that I am speculating about.
Developing improved and sustainable perceptions, services, products or means of production (improved meaning: more fact-based, less waste, less harm, and less unsustainable consumption), needs to be more highly-valued than creating unjustified desires and getting more popularity or profit the easiest possible way for as long as can be gotten away with.
Enjoying a life in ways that are understood to be sustainable and helpful, not harmful, to others (especially all future generations) is hard work. It is also hard work to protect democracy in politics and the marketplace from the damaging influence of secrecy/ignorance, manipulation by misleading advertising, or other gross distortions of Adam Smith's Invisible Hand that requires all participants to be fully aware, wanting to be helpful, and not wanting any harm done by anyone to anyone.
Undeniably, it can be easier and more personally beneficial to simply do what is thought to be possible to be gotten away with, without putting effort into figuring out if what is being done is sustainable, or if it is helpful or harmful to others. And it can be very beneficial to deliberately try to be secretive or to mislead others about the decency of what is happening.
Cooperative collaborative human activity is the most beneficial thing humans have developed the ability to do. To be sustained, any collaboration or cooperative action must be governed by Good Helpful Altruistic Reasoning. Competing to improve awareness and understanding of what is going on and to develop sustainable improved ways of living is at a disadvantage if less helpful and actually harmful ways of living are allowed to compete.
Without GHAR governing and limiting what is done, the actions will corrupt into harmful unsustainable pursuits (tip of the hat to Jonah Goldberg, author of “Suicide of the West”, for helping me understand the possible applications of the term - corrupt). Without GHAR the sub-collectives (tribes) of humanity will devolve into greedier and less tolerant entities (groups of greedier and less tolerant participants). Corrupting to that primitive human nature selfish small worldview is easier than the harder work of improving collective civilization governed by GHAR with everyone pursuing an expanded world-view, harder than embracing and supporting a robust diversity of humanity fitting sustainably into a robust diversity of all other life.
Critical-thinking science-minded people can also be misdirected into pursuits of new ways to be more profitable or personally beneficial that rely on secrecy (ignorance among the public), or unjustified permission (marketing created social licence/popularity or political leadership allowing/promoting it) to get away with harmful actions for as long as possible. Technology can be a particularly insidious and damaging distraction. It is the result of hard work, but that work can be misdirected into creating appealing distractions from the harder work of GHAR. And that misdirection can develop unjustified desires for unsustainable and harmful to make-use-tossaway “New Amazing Gadgets” or “New ways to Harm or Threaten to Harm Others that can be excused as New Defensive Capabilities”.
Developing a sustainable constantly improved future for humanity is possible. The UN development of the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals is proof that helpful developments of improved awareness and understanding can occur in spite of temporary regional set-backs from the push-backs by the right-wing. It is hard work that can never stop, because the right-wing attempts to get people to corrupt into primitive divisive tribal selfishness. will never go away.
GHAR needs to govern everyone everywhere forevermore, never allowing primitive human nature to significantly influence things without being evaluated by GHAR for acceptability, only allowing actions that are sustainable and harmless to compete for popularity and profitability.
That change is developing, in spite of temporary regional set-backs. Sadly, the future of humanity suffers more every time anyone allows their primitive human nature to over-rule their modern human ability to be considerate, reasonable, helpful, altruistic.
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michael sweet at 12:27 PM on 29 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Dr. Garrott copied this XKCD in his blog post complaining about how the journal treated him. Someone had suggested that it applied to his paper.
Perhaps if more peer reviewed papers and less blog posts were cited in this discussion we could reach a better understanding of the situation.
Since this is supposed to be a scientific board peer reviewed papers are strongly preferred over blog posts.
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scaddenp at 08:06 AM on 29 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
I will explain a bit why I think this point is important. Your argumentation has been based on GR holding, and regard this is an immutable "law of universe" (well a reflection of the law of thermodynamics). I am holding that if it is purely byproduct of underlying mathematical structure (and it formulation), then the only information expressed is the exponential nature of GDP and dependence on power. To use this information as a guide to the future, then need to consider whether GDP as an exponential is immutable and whether its relation to power is immutable.
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nigelj at 07:37 AM on 29 August 2018The silver lining of fake news
Maybe you are right and people are increasingly accepting that the climate is changing, and are seeing through the fake news on this aspect of things. I put any increasing acceptance down to relentlessly increasing temperatures more than anything finally registering with people. Fake news can't really hide this, and it can't hide peoples personal experience of bad weather, and a strong sense it is getting worse.
But given only 58% of people in America think humans are 'causing' climate change after all we have gone through, its hard for me to see this aspect of the issue changing much more. About the same numbers of 40% are still sceptical about evolution 100 years after the discovery of the thing. Fake news has a long history, even as the internet has obviosly multiplied it all.
One of the problems is some people go by instincts and so called 'truthiness' while others look more at scientific evidence. Only one of these groups can be looking at information the right way.
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scaddenp at 07:07 AM on 29 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
My criticism on the mathematical structure applies if the whole GDP can be a approximated by a single exponential function and if the relation between GDP and energy production is approximately linear. A quick fit of data that I have shows those conditions are met although linearity of GDP to Energy starting to change.
If you are willing to share the raw GDP and Power data on which are working (with whatever corrections you feel appropriate), I am happy to check the mathematical structure.
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Raoul DG at 06:18 AM on 29 August 2018Climate Science blogs around the world
In French: Chroniques du têtard mouillé (http://sogeco31.blogspot.com/).
The author is not a scientist, but the content is solidly science based. Some french politics, some hiking, but for the most part, climate related news, and critics of the "skeptics" french-speaking scene. Feel free to review and publish or not.
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indy222 at 22:42 PM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
to MA Rodger: In my slide 241 showing the Garrett Relation with the refinments to the biases in the data.... you must pause and realize something Mr Rodger. Pause and realize.... One more time - I use the word "wealth" in the same way that Garrett does. Wealth = time integrated GDP. So when I label a curve "Wealth (GDP+shadow)" that means I'm plotting time integrated GDP, not GDP, and together with the spending that is not included in GDP, which Oztunali and many others refer to as the "shadow economy". Yes time-integrated GDP indeed goes up roughtly exponentially. The integral of an upwardly moving function is an even more sharply upwardly moving curve. GDP has, since the discovery of oil, been, on average, an increasing function. Recessions clearly slow that, but only for a year or so before it resumes typically with renewed vigor. And yet once again, neither Garrett nor I are arguing for a fundamental physics unchangable relation between atmospheric CO2 and global GDP. That graph is only possible when FF's are your ~sole source of energy and given the way CO2 source+sinks behave in the environment. I have already said in my ppt's that I expect that curve will shallow when (if!) renewables begin to make a dent in our FF use. How much renewables begin to make a dent is going to depend on a race - a race between when climate chaos begins to seriously degrade civilization in a rapid way (thus perhaps derailing our attention away from renewables conversion in favor of just hanging on to what we have), and when the "S" curve of adoption of renewables somehow kicks in and FF power plants already built become uneconomical to maintain.
As for "GWP" as Global Warming Potential, that's a communication point I hadn't considered. I'll tell you why I go back and forth with using it - I'm writing a chapter for a book on the economics of climate change right now, and being confronted with staying inside a word count (!) and "global GDP" is 2 words, and "GWP" is one word! Yeah. Sorry, I'll try to use "global GDP" here.
You can get lost in the weeds of arguing whether Power/Wealth is truly constant. The data that goes into it has biases, and there are no 1-sigma, 2-sigma or other statistical error estimates given by those nefarious economists to Power or GDP(!). Garrett spends a great deal of time making a case for a constancy based on seeing Civilization as a thermodynamics system. I think it has great insight. I've reframed it slightly differently by using "entropy" whereas Garrett frames more in terms of potential energy flows from higher to lower. Each way hopefully will trigger light bulbs in at least some people. Is the relation PROVEN, in some sort of uncontestable mathematical way, like the Pythagorean Theorem? No - civilization is ruled by human laws as much as by physics, and this is not a closed and perfectly defined and delimited and known logical system like mathematics (at least, not until we reduce biology and the resulting psychology to their quantum mechanical base layer!). Garrett has made a case, and checked to see whether the prediction Power/Wealth=constant holds in the data, and it does. I've looked for flaws in the reasoning and the data, as I started out as a skeptic myself. Instead of finding that the relationship is only a product of flawed data, I find that it is flawed data that makes the small deviations from flatness, and that if we remove those biases the relationship looks even stronger than Garrett thought. Very strong in the historical data. I've not yet seen a case to be made from good reasoning that the GR relationship will be broken. We must not be guilty of "magical thinking", to quote Garrett and to quote a good friend and NAS astrophysicist Sandra Faber. Again, constantly improving energy efficiency is not in either mathematical or logical conflict with Power/Wealth=constant. The complaints here in SkSci seem to be based on misunderstandings in what Garrett is saying. The rest of the reason why Garrett's work has not gotten a wider look may be because - his biggest proponent seems to be the Apostle of Apocalypse: Guy McPherson. As an aside, I've gone out of my way to emphasize criticism of McPherson's clear misunderstanding of Garrett's work and of climate (esp methane) in general and that his belief that all humanity will be extinct in 8 years is ludicrous.... and cruel to those naive enough to buy into his past life as a professor of ecology as sufficient justification to believe him. The last thing that I want, is for McPherson to praise my thoughts or work! I don't need friends like that. The future is grim enough without having the true situation dismissed baby/bathwater along with bogus NearTermHumanExtinction. My sympathies to Garrett.
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MA Rodger at 21:27 PM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
indy222 @79,
May we park any rebuttal while the more basic criticisms of Garrett (2011) are addressed here?The finer points of something being either a "constant ratio" or a "correlation" are not the issue. Anything presented as a linear correlation that ignores an evident acceleration is poorly presented and especially so if that acceleration throws the correlation beyond its stated confidence levels.
Your graph of Global Primary Energy on your Slide 241 shows no significant acceleration. Your two traces of World GDP both show a strong acceleration, GDP advancing over three-times more quickly at the end of the 35 years of data relative to the start. (That is a 3% annual acceleration.) Dividing GDP into Primary Energy does not disappear the acceleration. And achieving a better level of linearity for half the data through adjustment of inflation calculations is not the immediate step I would take to illiminate the unwanted acceleration.
Your final comments @79 throw a whole set of %s around, seeming to suggest that there is a lack of linearity in something but it is less than the noise within the input data so the lack of linearity can be dismissed as not relevant. I would insist on a more reasoned description before considering such an argument.indy222 @82,
Concerning the use or otherwise of "time-integrated real GWP", note that GWP would be taken to mean Global Warming Potential in an AGW context (as you would expect here @SkS). I am unfamiliar with the acronym GWP as used but the expression from Garrett (2011) a = λC would put it (the quantity C) as some measure of Global Present Worth which becomes worthless were civilisation to disappear, and if Global Power Use (a) were to drop to zero, this disappearance would occur as the assertion is that λ is a constant. In Garrett (2011) the quantity C is actually defined in terms of P (Real Economic Annual Production) thus "C is civilization’s historical accumulation of real (inflation-adjusted) economic production of economic value P = dC//dt." Give this relationship, I am not sure why we see a Garrett graphic of Atmospheric CO2 levels against accumulative World GDP in-thread @55 above, the graphic I took for my guide when I plotted Annual dCO2 against Annual World GDP (as linked @77) which would be a more sensitive way of demonstrating the a = λC relationship. Perhaps I should have plotted da/dt = λP to test for the constancy of λ. -
Eclectic at 21:07 PM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Indy222 , in 2010 Dr Garrett stated that he was "coming from a physics background, and being totally naive in economics ..." (And I myself, being an economics cynic, am likewise in danger of a Dunning-Kruger approach to the Dismal Science.)
In 2014 , Dr Garrett stated that "[his] core finding is that economic wealth or capital is not a static quantity that simply exists, but rather it requires continual energy consumption for its sustenance. Like a living organism, energy is required not just to grow civilization but also to maintain its current size."
Many decades ago, Dr Isaac Asimov & other commentators drew attention to the fact that the so-called advance of civilization has required both an increase in leisure time combined with the "power-multiplying" effect of harnessing draught animals & wind-power & water-mills — later, steam-power, internal combustion & electric motors.
Yet Dr Garrett's mathematical lucubrations seem merely to re-invent the wheel in this regard. So far, so good. But wrong-headedly, he seems to feel the CO2 tail is wagging the dog.
Ultimately, the choice is ours in how we power our civilization. We are not inevitably constrained to follow the current trajectory. The "Garrett Relationship" is largely a pointless exercise.
And we should also debate what is meant by "wealth". But that is a topic for another day.
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indy222 at 17:13 PM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Scaddenp #84: No, I'm not insisting that decarbonizing will force a recession. I'm saying that if the GR remains true, it means that a long term recession, no matter how initiated, will carry with it a trend for energy efficiency to stop improving, but instead to get worse. And I'm saying that when you look at the Federal Reserve's papers on the political biases in the China data (and also I've found in Mongolia data - only ones I've tracked down so far) you indeed see a dramatic over-statement in official GDP growth vs the actual GDP evident from more reliable proxies (again, it's in the slides on my pdf), and this supports that achieving energy efficiencies is either not done, or can't be done, during recessions. This makes trying to halt CO2 growth via an engineered long term recession, as Kevin Anderson has suggested as what's needed, must also carry with it a determination for us to force ourselves to spend what GDP we still achieve towards continued energy efficiences, against our usual tendencies. My hypothesis is that the Garrett Relation is telling us something fundamental about how human nature, and if it is deeply embedded in human nature to behave this way, then simply telling happy stories about energy efficiencies being our salvation - is just not realistic. We grow faster when we get more efficient, and that fights against what's needed - lowering CO2 emissions.
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indy222 at 16:59 PM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
scaddenp: Your criticism only works if the exponential has the same constants in the exponent throughout the time of interest. But that is not the case here. The exponential power has varied greatly not only during the times before fossil fuels, but even during just the past century, and even just the past decades. The growth rate of Wealth (hence Power) was moribund until the late 1900's, took another slight hiatus during WWII, and then had a huge sharp change beginning in 1950, then shallowed again as the 21st century got going and continuing till now.
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scaddenp at 10:02 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Actually you dont need to take integral either to get convergance but it will converge much quicker if you do.
Also, you seem to be insisting that decarbonizing will force a recession. I dont buy it.
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scaddenp at 09:58 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
" Are you trying to say that we could choose ANY time integral and any non-integral which are both functions of time, and get a constant ratio to the extent seen in the GR?"
Not quite. I am saying time integral of any exponential time series divided by time series that is positively proportional to that same series will converge to a constant.y1 = a.Exp(b.t)
Int(y1) = a.Exp(b.t)/b
y2 = c.y1 + d
Int(y1)/y2 = a.Exp(b.t)/(b.c.y1 + b.d) = a.Exp(b.t)/(b.c.Exp(b.t) + bd)
as Exp(bt) get large, then approximates to a.Exp(b.t)/b.cExp(b.t) = a/bc
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indy222 at 09:02 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Scaddenp at least gets the point that the GR has to do with TIME INTEGRATED GWP. Re-reading once again MA Rodgers, I see no appreciation of this, as he continually refers to power vs GDP(t) or some other GDP, not Integral(GDP) (t=0 to now) apologies for the very awkward quick-o attempt to put an integral in this !
Moderator Response:[DB] Please curtail your all-caps usage (shouting is unhelpful).
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indy222 at 08:49 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
The other important point, is that if you look at World Bank data on the efficiency of energy to generate GDP, you'll see Joules/$GWP steadily dropping. But not completely steadily (see my slide 253), it flattens during recessions. I don't have China data or articles going back to those past recessions, but just the near-recession of '15 in China shows the point - that GDP is significantly overstated, and so energy efficiency progress in fact reverses during recessions, as the GR says it must. In human terms - we abandon the luxury of further improving energy efficiency in favor of just trying to support what we already have with what energy we have. That paints a sobering prospect of what would happen in an engineered long term recession as Prof Kevin Anderson has called for. W/o a massive change in who we are as a responsible species, we won't get out of this as cavalierly as so many would like you to believe. Of course, it doesn't have to be an engineered (graceful?) long term recession - climate decay could force it on us unwillingly, as I think it probably will. Climate decay, and our exponentially rising debt finally becoming impossible to support.
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indy222 at 08:40 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
To scaddenp: "wealth" = time-integrated real GWP is growing at 2% / year in the 21st century, on average. That's the INTEGRAL growing at 2%/yr. Power consumption is not money. It's a totally different thing - it's the energy consumption rate to support that GDP. That Power/Wealth should be end up being so closely constant over most of the accumulated history of all GWP since pre-history, is making a worthwhile statement. Are you trying to say that we could choose ANY time integral and any non-integral which are both functions of time, and get a constant ratio to the extent seen in the GR? That makes no sense.
On the SRES scenarios, maybe our conflict is in just how realistic are. Garrett makes the observation that population, for example, is not an independent variable, it is a dependent variable - we grow to the maximum extent that we can. Improve energy efficiency, and we can grow FASTER, including population, and that's exactly what we do. It's the very creation of energy efficiencies which ENABLE growth, and then FORCE us to spend more ongoing energy to support that new growth, and enable FASTER exploitation of energy we can find because now we're a bigger industrial entity. Which we must, to support all past growth too against the forces of decay, into the future. It's what we do. It's how we're built. Now, how do you take a world which lives off FF's and convert it to renewables at the pace indicated, without generating far more CO2 than shown in the graphs? FF and CO2 IS our energy source right now, and we're stuck with it. All the efforts we've so far done have doubled power consumption rates and yet CO2 generating FF's comprise an unchanged 87% of primary energy supply since 1973. Could we do better? If we became a different species, perhaps, that CARED enough about the future to lower our FF consumption at the same time that we poured every dollar we could into decarbonizing. If we actually SACRIFICED our current comforts for the sake of future generations. But we don't want to do that, nor will we tolerate a government that tries to tell us that. Instead we install the kind of governments we see around us. But the GR shows that power consumption is closely proportional to Wealth, so all this spending is going to produce a lot of CO2 in the near term.
And too, none of this includes the inadequate climate physics in the "carbon budgets" cobbled by the IPCC at the insistence of the U.N. political representatives, whereby we grow more than we should now, in favor of kicking the can down the road so that later generations have to deal with figuring out how to massively pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and permanently sequester it. What kind of species does that? Listen to the work of Kevin Anderson, of Vaclav Smil, of many other scientists and energy experts and IPCC members complaining of the UN interference in the IPCC process and how the carbon budgets that emerged are just wrong. And the missing physics: The rising ECS with climate state. The permafrost melt from much more dramatic Arctic Ocean ice loss than early models predicted, and resulting CO2 and methane emissions, etc.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped.
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nigelj at 08:27 AM on 28 August 2018Trump’s Dirty Power Plan is much worse for kids’ health than for climate change
Relevant article: Anti-Environmentalism/ Green Backlash
Sharon Beder."Anti-environmentalism refers to the way that corporations and conservative groups in society have sought to counter the gains made by environmentalists, to redirect and diminish public concern about the environment, to attack environmentalists, and to persuade politicians against increased environmental regulation."
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indy222 at 08:05 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
to MA Rodger: your 1st para: Garrett (and I now too, several times) have addressed why the Cullenword criticism was invalid. Garrett was not allowed to respond (which is pretty outlandish, and against policy, and with no explanation), after those criticisms were sandwiched on either side of his paper, but he responded in the (peer-reviewed) "No Way Out..." paper.
Again, GDP vs Power is only correlated, not a constant ratio. Nevertheless, there is tendency for that curve you plotted to have a shallower slope after the first '70's decade, but it was nearly entirely done early on, and not in recent decades. I address this by looking closer at the data. See http://www.cabrillo.edu/~rnolthenius/Apowers/A7-K43-Garrett.pdf slides 214 - 260. The slight down tilt in Power/Wealth disappears when you correct for: (1) under-estimated inflation (2) over-reported GDP (3) un-included "shadow economy", which makes up a continually smaller fraction of reported GDP and hence total spencing is not growing as fast as reported GDP.... all of which I document with good sources (not apocalypto bloggers, in case you're wondering). Look at the results for Power/Wealth in slide 241. The first point in the blue curve is identical to the most recent, and that is using only the most conservative and likely under-estimated correction to CPI inflation, from the MIT Business School. Instead considering the mid '90's Boskin Commission switchover to changing baskets, the estimate effect would be to remove the slight down tilt since ~'94 entirely. In generating the atmospheric CO2 curves, Garrett does NOT assume GDP is proportional to Power, Improving energy efficiency is not in conflict, not a noise issue, with the GR. As long as GDP is growing faster than energy efficiency, it's quite possible to have Power/Wealth remain constant. Now, you argue about "constant", and neglect that economists don't provide any error bars on their numbers. How "constant" must it be before it is usable as a principle from which to consider the future? You provide no answer, appearing to look for tiny deviations which neglect the closer-look, in order to throw out the entire thesis. That the ratio remains so closely constant, even with the data quality what it is, in a range of only 13% total top to bottom, and much less than 3% in determining the value of the ratio, while oil prices have gyrated wildly by an order of magnitude, while inflation has gone from 0 to 18% and back down, and up and back etc in the U.S., and we've gone from a declining CO2 per joule of energy to a halt in 2001 and rise and stabilize since then, and population rise by more than double, etc etc.... I find that impressive.
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scaddenp at 07:42 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Indy222, "However, this is not the case with global GDP. It is HEAVILY weighted towards the present."
Rate of convergence to a constant more about the size proportionality of y2 to y1.
If you have series that is exponential, and divide integral of series by a series that is positively proportional, then it will converge to a constant. As far as I can see the GR is nothing more than a statement of the mathematical structure. It adds no new information. It doesnt matter what errors there are in GDP or power, so long as exponentation and proportionality are maintained then ratio will be constant.
There's no appreciation in the SRES scenarios of how Draconian must be the constraints on global freedoms and desires in order to actually make happen the curves they simply cobble together as "representative".
Huh? Carbon tax or ETS is a draconian contraint on global freedoms and desires? If renewables are cheaper (and take away FF subsidies and they are in many parts of the world), then that will wreck economies to decarbonize? Does China care about "global freedoms" -what exactly do you mean?In one breath, you are saying that climate change will damage economy, and next, they we will squander everything to maintain global economic growth and that is inevitable. I really dont get it. I dont think you get what SRES are for either. All the meeting minutes are online. I dont see any nefarious UN polical outcomes at play there. They are done to provide policy makers information on the climate that various forcing pathways will lead them to. Do you that there is a forcing pathway that is not within the range considered by SRES?
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MA Rodger at 05:22 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Indy222 @76,
Let me add to your puzzlement. It may assist your gaining a resolution.
I am afraid I see no evident rebuttal of the criticisms levelled at Garrett (2011) in the two papers within Climate Change issue 104. You say you yourself provide such a rebuttal but you have have presented a lot in this thread and I have not forensically examined your commenting here, commenting which does need such examination as it is poorly set out. Yet given that, I would not recommend addressing Garrett (2011) in such a manner when it appears to have such basic errors elsewhere.
So addressing what appear to be very basic errors:
What relevant difference do you see between the World GDP data 1960-to-date presented by the World Bank and the GDP data used by Garrett (2011)? I see none. What technical issue have I managed to overlook?
I did point to why CO2 was an important variable in Garrett (2011). Look no further than the title! And you reinforce that importance by criticising "Koomey and Cullenward" for not being "climate experts". The CO2 relationship is certainly is no straw man.
As a sop to your criticism that Garrett (2011) solely considers energy use, I append to the graphic of CO2-rise v World GDP a graph of World primary energy v World GDP (two clicks to download, normally). The trace is evidently not straight but curving down towards the horizontal. The assertion in Garrett (2011) that the Garrett Relationship (Primary Energy = f[GDP]) is linear +/-3% is evidently wrong. Note that the final decade of data graphed slopes just 43% of the initial decade forty years before. That is rather a lot. (And note that within the first paragraph @26 your description of this Garrett Relationship and its employment is entirely garbled.)Turning to your second paragraph, any difficulties in the assessment of annual CO2 emissions is not an issue here. You will note that I have been graphing MLO CO2, the ESRL data which is indistinguishable from the Keeling curve you recommend.
And while Garrett (2011) does not use CO2-rise in its Garrett Relationship, the whole relevance of that Relationship is set out in terms of rising atmospheric CO2 levels. The CO2/GDP ratio is is dipping down toward the hirizontal. And so too is your much-vaunted GR if it is analysed properly. I see no other conclusion. -
indy222 at 01:02 AM on 28 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
I'm continually puzzled why people insist on mis-representing what Garrett's work shows, despite his patient rebuttal to Cullenward, Koomey, and despite my doing the same here. The graph that MA Roger links to above is GDP vs CO2. The Garrett Relation does NOT make a statement about GDP, but instead the total integrated global GDP over all history. And it does NOT make a statement about CO2, it instead says the current POWER (from any source, renewable or not) is proportional to time-integrated GDP. Stop constructing a phony straw man in order to justify dismissing the work, it only shows a lack of objectivity. It is the GR as stated above which is included in the forward projections curves, and those curves have a wide range of possible civilization resiliance to climate change crippling, and decarbonization rates. The point is that all of them show rising CO2 because we cannot accomplish anything, and for a given assumed growth rate of "Wealth"(=time integrated global GDP), more reslient civilization means HIGHER atmospheric CO2. Those curves are including decarbonization. Note that FF's have remained 87% of our global energy mix since 1973 right up through 2015. You have failed to justify why economists (not thermodynamics experts and not climate experts) Koomey and Cullenward's wrong-headed and dismissive commentary should not itself be dismissed. I've not found any substantive criticism of Garrett's work - only straw-man snipe'ing such as I am now seeing here.
As to Garrett's comment "It looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from the recently observed aceleration in CO2 emission rates", there was a flattening in REPORTED emission rates in the '14/'15 area, but (1) China has been caught under-reporting their emissions (look it up!), (2) China goes through 5-year cycles of overbuilding (think "Ghost Cities") and then fallow periods, and you must average over those. (3) Look at the Keeling Curve, updated almost daily, at their website. It is as smooth an exponential as anyone could hope. (4) Even if CO2 emission rates take a meaningful turn downward and stay down as we more dramatically go towards renewables, that does not violate the work. The Garrett Relation is between ENERGY and TIME INTEGRATED GDP, it is not with FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY. So yes, a log/log plot shows how closely atmospheric CO2 has followed GDP, but Garrett himself puts no importance on this, it's really just a statement that since virtually all of our energy has been FF energy, then there's not much surprise at the close correlation. If we make FF's a strongly diminishing part of the energy mix, neither he nor I nor anyone else would be surpised to see that curve start to bend.
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MA Rodger at 20:32 PM on 27 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
This thread has seen a lot of blather on the subject of Garrett (2011) 'Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?' which has been seemingly shoddily treated by its publishers. Yet, if Garrett (2011) had merit, the author should simply have addressed the criticisms of Cullenward et al (2011) and Scher & Koomey (2011). I do not see evidence of such work. Indeed, the content of Garrett is very poor and should never have been published. In my view it is simple nonsense cloaked by scientific smoke & mirrors with no merit what ever.
While the major conclusion of Garrett (2011) is the GDP/Energy-Use relationship, its title sets out an that it is examining projections of CO2 emissions and proclaims "it looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in CO2 emission rates" a message that is evidently wrong. The GDP/dCO2 relationship is far from linear. The level has halved 1985-2017 relative to 1960-85. See here a graph (usually 2 clicks to 'download your attachment') of MLO CO2 increases ploted against World Bank global GDP. And even the GDP/Energy-Use relationship is far less linear than Garrett (2011) asserts, the relationship seeing an 8% drop 1985-2017 relatibe to 1965-85. An 8% drop is way outside the findings of Garrett (2011). So how can Garrett (2011) be anything other than nonsense?
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indy222 at 16:12 PM on 27 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
To Scaddenp entry #68. Nowhere does Garrett or I adopt BAU as the inevitable. Again, the renewables fraction is a tunable parameter. So is the resiliance of civilization to the ravages of CO2-linked climate change. What is constrained, is that energy efficiencies permit and enable economic growth and that that growth WILL be engaged in. Neither as individuals nor as nations nor as a globe, do we take savings from our efficiencies and then burn those savings. And all spending results in encumbering future ongoing power consumption. Yes, I too once felt this must contradict the reality of improving energy efficiencies. But I was wrong. It does not. The details are in my .pdf already linked. The Garrett Relation's constancy is consistent with constantly improving energy efficiency as long as the rate of improved efficiency is less than the rate of economic growth. That indeed is what has happened. We put a portion of our economic growth into finding new efficiencies, but we prefer to enjoy a lot of our new-found efficiency-gained cash in other ways as well. And what about in recessions? The math says that improving energy efficiency will be scuttled in favor of just supporting against decay what we already have. And that too is what history shows. While individual country data doesn't really tell a true tale, so many people seem to want to consider the US, that I'll relate the following anyway. Since 1960 the efficiency with which a joule of energy can generate a dollar of GDP has improved a stunning 63%. Has this resulted in a reduction in our power consumption rate? Not even close! Our power consumption has gone UP by 300%. What do we do when we are given new cash from our efficiencies? WE SPEND IT! It's as simple as that, and hard to see how that will change w/o repressive government intervention - which would seem quite unlikely to be tolerated, frankly.
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indy222 at 15:21 PM on 27 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
To Scaddenp; the point of Garrett's work vs the SRES scenarios, is that the SRES scenarios show fantasic economic growth and no consequences in CO2 harming the economy. No appreciation of what people do with savings, with efficiency gains. I call it "checkers thinking" vs "chess thinking" or "reflexivity" if you like George Soros' formulation of the concept. "Checkers thinking" assumes that if you improve the efficiency of some process, that the savings in energy is a pure gain and is not re-spent elsewhere. That's not what history shows. There's no appreciation in the SRES scenarios of how Draconian must be the constraints on global freedoms and desires in order to actually make happen the curves they simply cobble together as "representative". If we're to remain true to human civilization and human nature as it actually is, then realize that savings will be spent, or worse - leveraged with debt and THEN spent, so we're spending the present and future generations resources to fund what we spend it on. All spending makes "order" out of "disorder" which then must be continually supported with future energy to preserve against the 2nd law of Thermodynamics. Economic growth must be powered and that power must begin 87% as FF energy, and then try to decarbonize from there, but decarbonizing itself will take much energy to accomplish - FF energy. We're in a difficult place, to have to support 7.5 billion who have currently been supported by constantly increasing CO2 emissions, in some other non-CO2 generating way. It's not just me, now, that is recognizing the absurdity of these rosy scenarios. A new entry here is the work of Dunlop, Spratt, and Schellnhuber https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/08/20/we-are-climbing-rapidly-out-humankinds-safe-zone-new-report-warns-dire-climate
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indy222 at 15:09 PM on 27 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
To Michael Sweet's disparaging comment. Clearly you have no interest in actually reading the criticism. Otherwise you would notice that the criticism showed the reviewer hadn't even bothered to understand that the Power/Wealth=constant) relationship defines Wealth as an integral over all time, NOT current GDP! That changes everything. Your comment likewise shows no interest in actually understanding this issue, but only band-wagon hopping on invalid criticisms. I too started out thinking Garrett must be a dismissable "apocalypto" when I hadn't actually read and digested his work, given that I heard about it from Uber Apocalypto (of no credibility) Guy McPherson. With "friends" like McPherson, who needs enemies? I think McPherson's hyping (w/o understanding even what a "heat engine" is) Garrett's work simply because it sounds apocalyptic enough to "support" McPherson's agenda, is a real problem for having Garrett's work digested for what is actually says and shows.
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indy222 at 15:02 PM on 27 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
In your example, when the large majority of the integral has already been accumulated, then the ratio can't change much. However, this is not the case with global GDP. It is HEAVILY weighted towards the present. Most of the sum total of all civilizations GDP since cave-man days, has happened since 1970. So the argument above doesn't carry much weight. It is indeed still remarkable that the ratio is so constant during a period when there has been such radical changes in society, in oil prices, in population, in technology, in everything.... and during a time when most of the total GDP every generated was in fact generated.
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jonb at 13:20 PM on 27 August 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
Just to note for some geographical accuracy that NSW is NOT in northern or western Australia. It is in south eastern Australia. Fire patterns are changing differently across different parts of Australia as one might expect in a continent that streches from the tropics to cold temperate environments. And despite our Federal Government (once again in unbelievable termoil and still dominated by climate change deniers), individuals, some State governments and commercial interests are very rapidly building billions of dollars worth of renewable power generators including solar, wind, solar thermal, many linked to battery storage or pumped water systems.
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scaddenp at 11:06 AM on 27 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Indy222, If I have understood your statement of the Garrett relationship, then I am still not certain it is saying very much.
Take an exponential series. eg y1=a*EXP(b*t) (ie GDP)
Take y2 as a linear relation of y1 eg y2 = c*y2 + d (Power)
Divide the Integral of y1 wrt t by y2 and the result converges towards constant. Rate of convergence dependent on relative values of b and c.
And no, I havent looked at this rigorously from mathematical viewpoint but it looks suspicious to me.
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william5331 at 06:24 AM on 27 August 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
Aus is such a disappointment. If there is one country in the world that could rapidly and completely become carbon neutral it is Australia. Their resources of wind and solar are unmatched anywhere in the world. There is one ring that controls them all and if we don't get this one sorted, none of the rest will bear fruit. We must get vested interest money out of politics. "Who Pays the Piper Calls the Tune" was never as true as in politics. As long as the coal industry and others are financing the politicians, why we surprised that they do their bidding.
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anticorncob6 at 03:54 AM on 27 August 2018Sunshine Blogger Award
There is no possible way that climate change denial will be gone by 2023. Humanity's refusal to accept inconvenient truths is very strong. Or as David K said, the ability to avoid reality is amazing. Just think about the fact that we're still debating evolution.
I estimate that it will take until the mid 2030s before climate change denial is no longer significant.
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barry1487 at 18:20 PM on 26 August 2018Sunshine Blogger Award
Prior to the creation of SkS, there was no accessible resource explaining what the peer-reviewed scientific research says about the many popular climate myths.
Well, prior to SkS there was Coby's Beck's blog, A FewThings I'll-Considered, which had a pretty big debunking list and quite a bit of reference to peer-reviewed lit for a layman. IIRC I found my way to SkS through Coby (or Realclimate, who referenced his old and new blog, too).
Coby moved his debunk articles to here in 2008.
Congrats on the nomination. And I'd second a nomination for Tamino.
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nigelj at 09:50 AM on 26 August 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34
A couple of your facebook articles have a message when connected together. The Democrats back down on refusing to accept campaign donations from the fossil fuel industry is indeed unfortunate. Perhaps they could learn a bitter lesson from Malcolm Turnball, who has abandoned climate change targets. Despite this compromise to try to please right wing factions, he has still lost the job of prime minister.
This is what happens when politicians are weak, and give away their core positions. They get no respect for this. It looks to me like the Democrats are also trying to please everyone, and will end up pleasing nobody.
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citizenschallenge at 00:54 AM on 26 August 2018Climate change and wildfires – how do we know if there is a link?
"I agree those of us talking about the dangers of climate change have to try to lead by example."
This argument is like being caught stealing and responding with the defense, well the president steals all the time.
It's a cheap Republican rhetorical diversion.
How much of a hypocritical energy pig, or saint, you or I am - has absolutely nothing to do with recognizing and accepting the sober facts of manmade global warmer. NOTHING!
I just finished a pretty good (other's judgement) essay that explores this issue a bit more concretely
The missing key to Stephen Gould’s “Nonoverlapping Magisteria.”
“… missing was a much more fundamental division crying out for recognition. Specifically, the magisteria of Physical Reality vs. the magisteria of our Human Mindscape. …”
http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2018/08/key-to-nonoverlapping-magisterium.html
(@ 22, Santa Rosa, CA)
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citizenschallenge at 00:36 AM on 26 August 2018Climate change and wildfires – how do we know if there is a link?
Having been close witness to the Durango, Colorado area fires, Missionary Ridge 2002, this summer the 416 Fire (witnessed initial fire on both, from a distance that is), also the Burro Fire and the slightly more distant The Plateau and West Guard Fires north of Dolores.
One of the fire obvious observations is that the warmer it gets the greater the afternoon flare up and fire growth. The colder the nights, the slower the next morning's fire's return to actively growing.
The rapid ignitions are again aways related to heat, dryness, wind. Think San Rosa fire, or the 416, where a home owner saw ignition within moments and they had a small fire appliance spraying water within 5-10minutes, but the hot wind and steep slope made this Steam Train (DSNGRR) Boiler klinker started fire different from the dozens of other similiar fire starts in that area (steep uphill pull, pouring on the coals) over the past decade.
Interestingly, three additional smaller fires within sight of our cabin that were contained within a couple days±, all started in the afternoon with cooling temps, and a night for initial ground attack and preparation for the next day's fire fighter assault. (Those guys/gals do do incredibly good work)
Hmmm, how will a warming drying climate impact future wild fires?
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citizenschallenge at 23:59 PM on 25 August 2018New research, August 5-12, 2018
Ari Jokimäki, used to be a trickle, now its torrent, yet somehow awareness (or is it interest) seems to be going down.
Makes me think of the observation: "Buy 'em books and buy 'em books and all they do is eat the covers."
Well if nothing else you continue creating a excellent one stop resource for the few who want to become informed.
Thank you !
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michael sweet at 07:35 AM on 25 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Indy222,
A blog post from Tim Garrott whining about how badly he was treated is hardly proof that he was poorly treated. His paper was published. The reviewers thought his work was crap and wrote opposing views. That is how science works.
Sounds to me like few experts thing Garrotts work is worth considering.
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scaddenp at 07:10 AM on 25 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Thanks for that clarification. However, I do not understand your point about the SRES scenarios. Climate models by nature evaluate "given forcing x, then is the climate you will get". The scenarios are to help evaluate the consequences of particular policy actions. If you do BAU, you get this - widely criticized as being too unlikely but you seem to believe the only one possible? - if we implement reductions on CO2, then we get this. With regard to the GR, nowhere do I see a suggestion that power consumption is reduced in the scenarios- only that we change from FF to other means of generation.
Of course, if want to argue that shouldnt attempt change because history suggests we cant, then that would be a perfectly self-fulfilling prophesy. In 1700, couldnt you make the same argument about the need for horses?
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Daniel Bailey at 00:31 AM on 25 August 2018Welcome to the Pliocene
Orbital forcing peaked in the early Holocene and has declined since. Less energy went into melting ice, and into warming the oceans, slowing the rate of ice sheet mass losses and slowing the rising of sea levels.
Typically, when climate scientists try to understand some of the expected future effects of global warming and climate change, they first look to the past. And in looking to the past, we can use the example of the climate transition from the icy depths of the Last Glacial Maximum into our current Holocene Interglacial to guide us. From about 21,000 years Before Present (BP) to about 11,700 years BP, the Earth warmed about 4 degrees C and the oceans rose (with a slight lag after the onset of the warming) about 85 meters.
However, the sea level response continued to rise another 45 meters, to a total of 130 meters (from its initial level before warming began), reaching its modern level about 3,000 BP.
This means that, even after temperatures reached their maximum and leveled off, the ice sheets continued to melt for another 7,000-8,000 years until they reached an equilibrium with temperatures.
Stated another way, the ice sheet response to warming continued for 7,000-8,000 years after warming had already leveled off, with the meltwater contribution to global sea levels totaling 45 additional meters of SLR.
Which brings us to our modern era of today: over the past 100 years, global temperatures have risen about 1 degree C…with sea level response to that warming totaling about 150 mm.
Recently, accelerations in SLR and in ice sheet mass losses have been detected, which is what you’d expect to happen when the globe warms, based on our understanding of the previous history of the Earth and our understanding of the physics of climate.
Sources for my SLR commentary:
- Shakun et al 2012 - Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation
- Marcott et al 2013 - A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
- Shakun et al 2015 - Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation
- Clark et al 2016 - Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change
- Shakun et al 2012 - Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation
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John S at 23:57 PM on 24 August 2018Welcome to the Pliocene
is there a simple elevator answer to a question why was the mid-holocene 0.6 to 0.9 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial (if I'm reading the chart right) when the CO2 was a bit lower (260 ppm vs 280 ppm)? ... less volcanoes?
as a supplementary the mid-holocene sea level vs now is shown as N/A which I understand to mean not-applicable probably (I'm guessing) meaning the difference was < 1 metre, but do we have any more precise idea what it was? — I'm guessing lower than now because it wasn't quite as warm, but by an amount < 1 metre , or by an amount within the range of error so we don't really know more than it was about the same (I recall somone'e lecture about Roman fish tanks implying sea level about the same as now)
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indy222 at 17:55 PM on 24 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
Michael Sweet, here's a link to the rather outrageous (and unfair to an author) treatment he's received on his work on Civilization as a thermodynamic system,
Moderator Response:[DB] Shortened URL and activated hyperlink. You can do this too, using the insert/edit link tool, to avoid long links breaking page formatting.
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indy222 at 17:14 PM on 24 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
scaddenp, Understand what the Garrett Relation says.
the GR is not: Current GDP is proportional to Current power consumption rate
the GR is not: total summed GDP is proportional to total summed past power consumption
Both of the above are completely false....
The GR is: Today's global power consumption rate (about 18 TW) is directly proportional to the summed total inflation-adjusted Gross World Product over the entire history of civilization.
What my work shows, (so far, only published in my powerpoint I show to my students, linked previously, and includes a linear graph of the GR and components of it) is that this proportionality is even closer if you add back in the "shadow economy" that is missing from GDP figures, and if you attempt to correct for the bias in CPI inflation which, while not numerically well-agreed upon in studies, is at least well-argued and calculated to be higher than official figures (it saves governments COLA money to those massive unfunded liabilities). I've been conservative in using only the MIT Business School's "Billion Prices Project" correction. Garrett's original figures use officially reported GDP deflator values from the World Bank. Pretty safe, but may not do justice to the constancy of the (Current Power)/(total time-integrated GWP + shadow economy spending) ratio's constancy and how well it agrees with theoretical thermodynamic reasoning.Frankly, these corrections to the original ratio are both very small compared to the large changes in civilization wealth, power, FF use, oil prices... And the original GR as plotted by Garrett is still quite flat over time, within data errors.
Again, constantly improving energy efficiency is not inconsistent with the GR constancy. But if the GR is a true property of the human + physics nature of things, and can be relied upon to remain true in the future, it really points to a glaring inconsistency in the (UN politically directed) IPCC SRES scenarios, which basically invent, (whole-cloth!), economic and power trends cobbled simply to get a total specified climate forcing, without any appreciation of the connections between population, energy consumption rates, and GWP. And compound those flaws by then adding in massive atmospheric CO2 removal later in the century in order to produce the UN politically desired "carbon budgets" which clearly make no sense. Economic growth at the rates the IPCC SRES scenarios show are only consistent with MUCH higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations, unrealistic in that such high CO2 will cause such crippling climate change as to (in the words of James Hansen) make the world "ungovernable", and that is NOT an environment of economic growth, but instead rapid decay.
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scaddenp at 15:22 PM on 24 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
indy222, I will defer happily to you on any matter of economics, but the plot that I dont understand the power to weath relation, where my graph showed decreasing trends not a flat line. I am not reproducing the Garrett plot.
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indy222 at 13:58 PM on 24 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
I don't know which plot you're referring to. The CO2/GDP plot that JevonsRevenge put in, but which is not fundamental nor relevant for the Garrett Relation? The Garrett Relation plot from my grab of original data from the sources given in my pdf linked earlier, shows it to be quite similar to Garrett's for the data range he had then, and which is even flatter when biases are corrected for, as I describe in my pdf. You might check to see if the worldindata source is using MER (market exchange rates) or PPP (purchasing power parity) accounting to combine countries and get a global GDP. As I argue, Garrett correctly used MER accounting. Some sources may use PPP accounting, but that doesn't properly reflect the value of future civilization network building, key to understanding the energy implications contained in the Garrett Relation. You must use PRIMARY energy (different than some measures, e.g. electricity, other forms of processed energy) and you must use MER accounting. These are the measures which reflect the true cost and the true GDP relevant for energy consumption.
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scaddenp at 07:25 AM on 24 August 2018Comprehensive study: carbon taxes won't hamper the economy
indy222, you insert links and images via the toolbar in the "Insert" tab of the comments editor.
My problem is reconciling the graph I constructed from worldindata (which at its base is not too different in source from that used by Garrett) with Garrett's plot.
Also important from the climate perspective, is that while increasing wealth requires increasing energy use, the energy does not have to come from FF.
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