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voravichlouis at 22:52 PM on 26 March 2018Satellite record is more reliable than thermometers
Based from the article, I agree with an argument that says unnecessary that higher technology always better for measure and predict climate than normal equipment. What we are focusing on is temperature of throposphere is rising up. For me I think there is both side for each apparatus. Satellite is measuring the temperature of above the Earth suface. By the value of the temperature from the satellite is an calculated number after discount other factor. There are a thousands of factor that can affect the values such as different in temperature from different layer of atmosphere, water vapour in the atmosphere and also the attitude of satellite should be stable, but we can't control that. So the result of temperature from sattellite is quite inaccurate, even though it can cover larger area of measuring. On the other hand, thermometer is used to measure the temperature on Earth, so it is more accurate in specific area.
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random guy at 22:45 PM on 26 March 2018Scientists have detected an acceleration in sea level rise
I think the melting rate of ice is also likely to increases and increasing the rate of sea level rise as well. Since the environment is connected to each other just one change in one part of the cycle can cause a change to a whole cycle, in this case, the factors are not only the temperature rises up but it also warm currents that run-pass ice sheet as well. So I'm sure that sea level will rise much faster than now, in just a few years, if we can't make an impact big enough to stop temperature rise.
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chanut.th at 22:32 PM on 26 March 2018The sun is getting hotter
The sun's heat is increased, but it is not the main factor for the increase in temperature. Even though the sun is burning, burning and spreading the sun, and the sun is expanding, it is hotter.
The world is being heated by the increase in greenhouse gases caused by the burning of fossil fuels and transportation or transportation. Why global warming does not depend on the green house effect.In spite of this, greenhouse gases have increased and global warming is due to the destruction of the ozone layer.
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Thanapat Liansiri at 22:06 PM on 26 March 2018Solar cycles cause global warming
This article is interesting I want to know too, so solar cycle cause global warming.
The temperature around the world is now increasing and TSI(Total Solar Irradiance) I think solar cycle can cause global warming because our temperature is increasing by radiation from the sun which comes from solar cycle too. In that time global temperature increase by 0.18 but now in 2018 is much warmer than that time
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random guy at 21:53 PM on 26 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
@5 I really agree with Digby Scorgie. The problem with biofuel is that it hard to produce. In this case, sugarcane requires too much area and too unreliable in the rate of production. I couldn't imagine what will happen if we all use jet fuel and have a major drought in an agriculture area. That drought must cause a damage worth many millions of dollars in just one day.
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voravichlouis at 21:35 PM on 26 March 2018CO2 is coming from the ocean
But my question is CO2 that dissolved in the ocean, even it dissolved for long time ago and also the ratio between dissolve in and release out are very different, where does the CO2 go? Is it going to be a long term effect to the ocean in the future?, thousands or millions of years after this.
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Thanapat Liansiri at 21:29 PM on 26 March 2018Springs aren't advancing
I really agree with this article especially "Climate change is being recognized as one of the most influential drivers of changes in biodiversity". this statement is true this issue now becomes world global issue that we face today.
From this article said that this issue affects the timing of plant flowering can disrupt so this situation happens because of our ecosystem change this issue not just happen with a plant, it also happens with insect so they change their behavior all of this problem comes from the change of temperature in our atmosphere. If we do not fix this problem or find the way to deal with it we will soon face another big problem that we can't imagine.
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voravichlouis at 21:27 PM on 26 March 2018CO2 is coming from the ocean
In my opinion, I strongly agree that the extra CO2 in the atmosphere has come from the oxidation of fossil fuels and not from outgassing from the ocean. Based from what the professionals say, CO2 emission in the atmosphere is less than half of fossil fuel emissions of CO2. Another half ends up in the ocean, which mean ocean isn't the factor of releasing CO2 to the atmosphere.
Even there are exchanging of CO2 between ocean surface and the atmosphere. But there is a huge range of differences between going in and releasing out of CO2 from ocean. Absorbtion is a lot higher of amount.
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random guy at 21:22 PM on 26 March 2018Developing countries need fossil fuels to reach the standard of living we enjoy, right?
I have to say this is a nice video for convincing someone to trust that they can get over fossil fuel and use renewable energy instead. The video itself has a good point but the truth about corruption in developing world is undeniable.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/323102/png-improves-on-global-corruption-index
just by look at the picture you can see that most of developing country have a very high percentage of corruption and it most likely that all the income and profit will not come to people. So in short, it doesn't matter if they (or us as from my perspective) use fossil fuel to boost GDP or not we will never get a good living standard as a developed country do unless we somehow change the country to a better situation.
ps: sorry for bad English I'm not a native speaker. Proper English education here is very hard to find, but I will try as best as I can.
Moderator Response:[DB] Image width resized to 450
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Thanapat Liansiri at 21:07 PM on 26 March 2018It's global brightening
I agree with your article
so the global brightening is caused by changes in cloud cover, a cloud is an aerosol comprising a visible mass of minute liquid droplets, frozen crystals, or particles suspended in the atmosphere so the major one that absorbing all the radiation in our atmosphere is cloud and aerosol, aerosol can absorb the solar radiation so if we decline in absorbing aerosol so that means sunlight will reach the earth so the result is our Earth is warmer than before.
Cloud also take a major character because clouds can trap the infrared radiation So if we have less cloud infrared radiation will come directly to us so the result is our surface warmer than before. From the graph, you bring I can understand all of that information.
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Napin at 20:48 PM on 26 March 2018Southern sea ice is increasing
Sea ice in Antarctica was increasing until around 2015 while the temperature was warming up, and then in 2016, the ice started to decrease and reached its lowest record in 2017 as it is said in phys.org/news/2018-03-antarctic-sea-ice-second-straight-year.html Ice plays an important role on global warming issue. If we knew the factors which drive the sea ice to changes and how it works, we could understand more about climate change.
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ubrew12 at 12:06 PM on 26 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #12
Consider the source: Heartland telling your kid that fossil fuels is no big deal on his climate, is like Philip Morris telling him that cigarette smoking is no big deal on his lungs.
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nigelj at 10:00 AM on 26 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #12
BECCS = huge use of existing scarce land, huge use of fertlisers and water, complicated energy intensive processes, and considerabe transport costs = something where serious questions need to be asked.
Related articles ; "It’s the big new idea for stopping climate change — but it has huge environmental problems of its own"
"Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundariesVera Heck1,2*, Dieter Gerten1,2*, Wolfgang Lucht1,2,3 and Alexander Popp"
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Napin at 01:37 AM on 26 March 2018Arctic was warmer in 1940
To get the true information, we as a reader should check the evidence of those analysis and compare the information in the different sources. Sometimes the headline of the article is very interesting but it isn’t true and sometimes the author hides some part of the information so the article is true only in 1 aspect. We have to aware of these false data!
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DWnns at 00:30 AM on 26 March 2018It's too hard
Thank you for posting!!
Climate change destroyed our earth so much. Climate change that we made it because of human's want. It changes our world from clean to dirty. It's too hard to change our globe back, but we can stop it before it destroys us more. If we help each other, we can reduce climate change. By reduce to release greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4, water vapor. Climate change is not too hard to stop if we help together.
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Napin at 00:13 AM on 26 March 2018It's microsite influences
The change of the temperature merely in 1 degree has a huge impact on climate change issue. To find the way to limit, control and slow down the process of global warming the scientists do need the accurate information. So no matter how close of the good and bad station data is, we should set up the station in the place that can get the closest result to the actual temperature on earth. The factors which affect the measurement of the temperature should be find out.
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DWnns at 23:58 PM on 25 March 2018Climate scientists are in it for the money
Thank you for posting!!
Scientists are important for our world. Because of climate change that we made it happen. Many countries tried to solve this problem. The government gave the budget for science companies to research. Causes somebody to think that climate scientists are in it for the money. In my opinion, science project and research need money and time. Money that government gave could be running out easily. Some country didn't support science field so much. Sometimes it made people don't want to be scientists because science work is very tough work and the scientist isn't high salary career. So I think scientists aren't in it for the money.
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DWnns at 20:56 PM on 25 March 2018It's not bad
Thank you for posting!!
Normally, everything has two sides, positive and negative ways. For global warming, seem the negative ways are more than the positive one. The positive is affect only some area but the negative affect all, direct and indirect ways to human's health. In my opinion, CO2 didn't make sense much on agriculture in a positive way. More CO2 didn't say that more O2 plants could produce. While we have global warming, that means many trees had been cutting down. No helper to absorb CO2 as much as the past. So in agriculture, few trees cannot take all CO2 to change to O2. CO2 also causes many glaciers melted that made the fresh water mixed with an ocean. Decrease the water supply that is the factor for human's life. In conclusion, I think global warming didn't make our world be good.
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Aomsin at 19:31 PM on 25 March 2018Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle
If the Arctic Ocean ice cover is continuing to decline the melting season, in the future Are there will have the black sheet which absorb heat causing ice to melt more.On the other hands if the ice is continuing to melting Are it will reach some point to stop melting and gaining ice instead?
The ice movement can cause to loss of ice mass.The loss of ice mass is a key indicator for ice sheet.The major characteristic of the Arctic is the warming faster than the rest of the globe as a result especially in summer.The sea ice retreat has significant effects on high latitude ecosystems on the evolution of climate change itself.How the Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle because one of the reason because human activities?Then human activities cause to effect the climate change.And climate change of Arctic sea ice as natural phenomenon.
If it is a natural cycle then it will not effect only on the land but how about the shortwave radiation in the atmosphere or the Arctic troposphere.Another important feature of Arctic chemistry is the involvement of bromine gas in sudden ozone depletion events in the lower troposphere during spring.However human activities not effect only climate or temperature but it effect to living organisms and their habitats.If it possible that polar bear immigrate to the other parts of the world because of the environment has changed.Furthermore maybe in the future there will have the technological solution to mitigate the problem that is happening.
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nigelj at 15:40 PM on 25 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #12
Curriculums need to be kept reasonably simple and uncluttered. Most of what comes out of the Heartland Institute and similar organisations is rubbishy self interested pseudo science, and will confuse children and add unnecessary complexity to the curriculum.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:06 PM on 25 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #12
Current day Libertarians, Utilitarians, and Free-Market Fans can be expected to try to keep people from being more aware and better educated regarding climate science and the required corrections of what has developed.
The constantly improving climate science understanding of the harmful consequences of the developed addictions to burning fossil fuels are undeniable. But 'smart' people who do not like that to be better understood have acted in a variety of ways to delay the education of the population, delay the development of increased awareness and better understanding. They prefer to try to claim that burning fossil fuels has been such a good thing that it must not be rapidly curtailed. They claim that future generations will develop 'solutions to undo the harm and challenges created'. And they will even try to claim that the unsustainable developed perceptions of prosperity will continue to grow making the future even better as long as they can be freer to believe and do as they please, doing what they can understand is harmful and unsustainable.
In "On Liberty", John Stuart Mill warned about the harmful consequences of those type of people Winning. He states that societies have the means to properly educate their entire populations, including correcting any incorrect learning of older people, and warns that "If society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, society has itself to blame for the consequences."
Mill's warning especially applies to the need for the entire population to be 'educated or corrected' to appreciate the need to be as aware and understanding of what is Really Going On as possible and encourage actions that are helpful to others, especially future generations, and discourage actions that are harmful. Regrettably, many current day Libertarians only selectively remember parts of the understanding that was shared by Mill's all those years ago.
The real travesty is that the criticism/warning of the types of developments likely to be created by people freer to believe and do as they please, especially the harm they will try to get away with inflicting on future generations, was publicly declared for all global leaders to be aware and understand in the 1987 UN Report "Our Common Future" with the following blunt and accurate statement:
"25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management." -
Aomsin at 13:21 PM on 25 March 2018Antarctica is gaining ice
A team of international scientists is due to set off for the world’s biggest iceberg ,fighting huge waves and the encroaching Antarctic winter ,in a mission aiming to answer fundamental questions about the impact of climate change in the polar regions.The scientists, led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), are trying to reach a newly revealed ecosystem that had been hidden for 120,000 years below the Larsen C ice shelf on the Antarctic peninsula.In July last year, part of the Larsen C ice shelf calved away, forming a huge iceberg - A68 - which is four times bigger than London, and revealing life beneath for the first time.
The climate change had already affected the seas around Antarctica and is warming some coastal waters.So now both Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica Ice sheet are losing ice.For now, the East Antarctic Ice sheet is stable but it will influence on global climate change due to sea ice.In the future there is growing concern about the possible impact of climate change.Is Antarctica gaining ice that meant it will effect to climate change and the ecosystem of the regions? -
Cedders at 03:01 AM on 25 March 2018There's no tropospheric hot spot
I meant to add the caption for the above figure. 'Temperature trend 1960–2012 versus latitude and pressure. The value for each latitude and pressure is the medians of the trends at individual stations in that (10°) latitude bin. Units are °C per decade'
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Cedders at 03:00 AM on 25 March 2018There's no tropospheric hot spot
Figure 1 from Sherwood and Nishant (2015) from iUK2 is clear enough in showing the reduced lapse rate in the equatorial troposphere caused by increased evaporation. It seems balloons just hadn't captured good enough data before. I'm still seeing naive claims there is 'no hotspot'.
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Bob Loblaw at 00:51 AM on 25 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
NorrisM:
In deference to other parts of my life, I try to restrict my blog time to reading blogs that help me learn things. Judith Curry's blog does not fall into that category, for reasons that include what Eclectic stated in his response.
When you post (on the selected/appropriate thread), instead of feeling that you have to present or defend a particular position, focus on outlining what you do understand, describe what you don't, and ask questions to help understand.
You're not a lawyer trying to argue a case against an opponent. The idea here is to be a participant in a discussion where ideas are shared and a common understanding is the desired outcome. It is the ideas that will be put in the line of fire, not you.
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Aomsin at 00:20 AM on 25 March 2018Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
Greenhouse gases include water vapour ,carbon dioxide ,methane ,nitrous oxide and other gases.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”Deforestation is the second largest anthropogenic
source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere ranging between 6 percent and 17 percent,”said Daley.Then water vapour is actually the most powerful greenhouse gas and has a strong effect on weather and climate.As the planet get warmer ,more water evaporates from the Earth’s surface and become water vapour in the atmosphere.
If there a place where is ocean then it will have more of water vapour than the desert or not? And if want to reduce these problem then the place which dry or desert will have more stable of temperature than the ocean which has higher evaporation of water in the atmosphere.Because these issue is the positive feedback loop.How human can figure out greenhouse gas effect? And it’s not just only 1 problem because it will effect in a chain for example climate change ,global warming and methane pollution.
Global Warming is harming the environment in several ways including desertification ,increased melting of snow and ice ,sea level rise , stronger storms and extreme events.These problem made by human activities affect to the environment so in every year water vapour will more increasing to reach greenhouse gas effect and other problems.It was the responsibility of human to take care our Earth’s. -
Eclectic at 21:55 PM on 24 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
NorrisM @19 , with your permission, I will jump into the fray also — with an overview.
Judith Curry's recent articles on sea level rise exhibit typical Curryism. She provides, at first glance, an impressively erudite summation of the field of (modern) sea level rise. It is a complex area. She quotes from the IPCC and and other sources, and in effect she states that somewhere in the region of 40 - 60% of recent MSL rise is clearly anthropogenic (from AGW).
But there are three facets of Curryism here :
1. Although the mainstream scientists know that around 100% of modern rapid global warming is caused by human activity (including more than simply CO2 effects) . . . this fact does not suit public acknowledgement by Dr Curry and her agenda. Her clientele wish to hear that only a very minor part ( or none !! ) of global warming is caused by CO2 emissions — and to hear that AGW itself is a very small and temporary effect and will never amount to more than a limited inconvenience. (And preferably hear that today's slight/insignificant warming is merely the result of "natural variability" . . . such as a 1000-year or 2400-year cycle, or the AMO and/or a Stadium Wave and/or due to ABC [Anything But Carbon] ).
Dr Curry therefore presents her case in a way that implies that the very reasonable conclusion of 40 - 60% human attribution for sea level rise, must (by implication) point to AGW being far less than 100% human . . . and that therefore the mainstream scientists have gotten it wrong about warming. Curry is happy to strongly hint, but never state that explicitly.
2. Another typical Curryism, is her careful avoidance of the bigger picture. Readers who read her without making any effort to notice what she has avoided saying, will feel that she is giving a fair, balanced and dispassionate presentation. But taking a longer historical view of sea level, one sees that Curry is restricting her comments to the narrow case of the recent century or so (and she prefers to draw the focus toward 1950 and later). In that narrow window it is indeed possible to make a defensible case that cycles [however dubious] plus contributions from solar variability, the AMO, volcano eruptions, or other natural variability . . . can explain around half of [recent] sea level rise.
But on the multi-century / multi-millennial scale, her explanations are twaddle.
3. NorrisM, you may also notice how very carefully Dr Curry delineates the various time-segments through the 20th Century up to 2017. And she wishes to suggest validity of the post-1998 "Pause" in surface temperatures (and to minimize or not even mention the continuing oceanic heating). And she places the last few years of high spike in surface temperature, in a separate post-Pause category . . . caused by the "super-Nino" (without acknowledging that it's an ongoing warming problem, not just an El Nino fluctuation).
All very selective, all very denfensible in a court of law . . . yet at the same time rather obviously intended to mislead the unwary reader.
NorrisM, if you have time, take a further read through the comments columns at the foot of Dr Curry's articles. I confess to finding them quite entertaining — I usually skim through the repetitive nonsense coming from most posters there. But yes you are right, JCH is usually fairly well on the ball, if rather short-tempered. Nick Stokes is always worth reading, and provides genuine science. And there is the admirable calmness of JimD as he continually puntures the nonsense of posters like "ABC" Ellison and the slightly less crackpot-ish Javier. All good fun, but sadly illustrating the insanity of some of the tolerably intelligent sections of the human population.
Also entertaining, NorrisM, is the way that on Curry's Climate Etc, the denialists who are scientifically/mathematically literate "medium crazies" have to keep turning around and putting down the "ultra-crazies" who come out repeatedly with way-off-planet ideas (ideas which are nevertheless still extremely common in the common ruck of denialists). You hardly ever see that with the posters at WhatsUpWithThat . . . where craziness & anger run rampant continuously.
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NorrisM at 17:08 PM on 24 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
Bob Loblaw @ 18
I have to admit this is pretty daunting. I somewhat have a feeling of someone in the trenches being asked to "go over the top" into the machine gun fire! I really should keep out of this because it is so technical. But by the end of the weekend, I will take a shot at it (excuse the pun).
I would be interested in your thoughts on the Judith Curry most recent posts IV and V on sea level rise. I think JCH has done a pretty good job of responding, especially his summary of sea level rises 1900 to 1990, then the various shorter periods of the last 20 years, last 10 years and last 5 years.
I have now read your last reference at RealClimate.
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nigelj at 11:04 AM on 24 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @50, I have bought Pinkers Enlightenment book, and it is well worth the money. Everyone should read it.
Some of my reservations after skimming it in the shop were simply because one or two issues Pinker argues don't seem convincing to me, and I had already read the Moral Arc by Shermer, which is rather similar.
But overall Enlightenment is more comprehensive than the moral arc and the better buy.
He is indeed critical of Ayn Rand and the comparison with Nietzshe is perceptive.
His chapter on CO2 emissions is good overall and very balanced. He has certainly done his homework, but geoengineering even of a temporary kind is still high risk. He is attempting to be open minded on it which is rational, but the tecnical risks remain daunting.
The guy pulls together the work of so many people, and I dont think I have ever seen such a long bibliography, so the guy must read a lot.
The underlying decision making philosophy is basically sound, and if only people thought like that it would be a better world.
However he does start to worship freedom a bit ardently, and over simplifies.
And there is always a risk that people will use his emphasis on progress humanity has made to dismiss problems. Of course this would not be Pinkers fault. Perhaps he should have cautioned readers more about this issue and not to use his book in that way.
But his book is phiosophically soundly based overall, and so a useful guide even if some things in it are debatable, and it should be on everyones list of best non fiction of the year.
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John Hartz at 09:22 AM on 24 March 2018Web of Power: Cambridge Analytica and the Climate Science Denial Network Lobbying for Brexit and Trump
Recommended supplemental reading:
The Facebook and Cambridge Analytica scandal, explained with a simple diagram: A visual of how it all fits together. by Alvin Chang, Vox, Mar 23, 2018
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nigelj at 07:36 AM on 24 March 2018Web of Power: Cambridge Analytica and the Climate Science Denial Network Lobbying for Brexit and Trump
From the Guardian a few hours ago:
"Leaked: Cambridge Analytica's blueprint for Trump victory. Former employee explains how presentation showed techniques used to target voters .
Article here. complete with video interview.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:47 AM on 24 March 2018Developing countries need fossil fuels to reach the standard of living we enjoy, right?
I try to be more aware and better understand things. So I would like one (or both) of the people who up-voted jef's comment @3 to explain why the comment was a well-presented helpful supplementary, clarifying or correcting comment.
My understanding is that the good objective of any presentation and discussion is to increase the correct awareness and understanding of what is going on, including developing recommendations for how to best apply the improved awareness and understanding to develop things that will be helpful to others.
And the up and down votes are to indicate whether a comment helps in that regard (they are not to be understood to be 'like or dislike' votes).
With that in mind, I have reread jef's post and rewatched the video (several times).
The point of the video is to provide good reasons why the burning of fossil fuels should not be considered to be a way to help the less fortunate develop to better ways of living. The 5 reasons provided seem to be very well presented, not naive in any way that I can figure out.
I struggle to see how jef's comment helpfully clarifies or corrects or adds to the content of the video in that regard. I get that developing nations probably cannot develop to live the way the developed nations do. My comment @1 makes the same point. But that is more about the developed nations having to correct the way they are living to be sustainable, likely reducing perceptions of prosperity as they make the correction to having all their energy be from sustainable sources.
As the wealthiest and most powerful in the world 'all' correct their ways of living to be truly sustainable, leading the correction of ways of living for all of humanity, the ways of living in the more developed world will change to be ways of living that the less developed nations can develop up to, with help form all of the wealthiest and most powerful.
Which leads to a request for the down-voters of my comment and nigelj's, with the above in mind please provide an explanation of how those comments could be improved or corrected.
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MA Rodger at 19:52 PM on 23 March 2018How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
Further to my assertions @104 concerning the requirement for CO2 warming to maintain H2O in the atmosphere, a paper looking at the impact of the zeroing of LL GHGs has featured in the evidence resulting from Judge Alsup's call for an AGW tutorial. The evidence in question is from Monckton, Soon et al (its contorted thesis of high humour content) which cited Lacis et al (2010) 'Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature'. While the description @104 was bravely considering a zero-CO2 steady-state, all LL GHG are something like 75% CO2 but those other LL GHG will be much reduced in a colder world so there won't be a great difference between zeroing CO2 and zeroing all LL GHG.
Lacis et al show by zeroing all LL GHG the world begins to cool at 4ºC/year thus becoming colder than ice-ages in 18 months. The cooling continues but at a far lower rate after the first seven years, and temperature will still be sinking beyond the 50 years of the modellng. At 50 years, average annual temperatures at the equator remain just above freezing allowing atmospheric H2O at 20% of pre-industrial values but 50% of the oceans are frozen over.
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Bob Loblaw at 09:02 AM on 23 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
NorrisM:
When you're ready, a search (box in the upper left corner) for "sea level" will provide several threads where such a discusssion would be best placed. Top candidates are:
Sea level is not rising [You likely won't argue against that]
Sea level rise is decelerating (Ditto)
Sea level rise is exaggerated. (If you argue the data is poor)
Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated. (Ding, ding, ding, ding!)
You may also wish to go over this post at RealClimate.
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Bob Loblaw at 08:53 AM on 23 March 2018Web of Power: Cambridge Analytica and the Climate Science Denial Network Lobbying for Brexit and Trump
Hmmm. Certain individuals will take whatever data they can find about people on the Internet, and use it to their own advantage to try to manipulate anyone they can. Ethics be damned.
Whooda thunk?
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Philippe Chantreau at 07:46 AM on 23 March 2018How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
There is currently a good discussion of the spectroscopic basis of the GH effect at Rabett Run, goes down several threads and shows what happens on the "wings." Real Climate also explored this in details a number of years ago, might be possible to find searching the site. Clive Best is run-of-the-mill disinformation.
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nigelj at 06:46 AM on 23 March 2018Web of Power: Cambridge Analytica and the Climate Science Denial Network Lobbying for Brexit and Trump
A related book is "Dark Money" by Jane Mayer.
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nigelj at 06:38 AM on 23 March 2018Web of Power: Cambridge Analytica and the Climate Science Denial Network Lobbying for Brexit and Trump
Great article, if a little short on background information on cambridge analytica. Cambridge analytica are hugely embroiled in numerous allegations of law breaking, pushing the law to the limits, and ethically questionable practices if you scan through wikipedia and media articles. There's far too much of this to dismiss as media hype and where there's this much smoke theres usually a fire.
The key people are Alexander Nicks, Steve Bannon, and Robert Mercer. Obstensibly it is a data gathering organisation, however independent experts question whether its microtargetting techniques actually work.
However it's activities appear to go rather beyond just data gathering and targeting potential voters, and it appears to me that Cambridge analytica is basically a politically partisan dirty tricks organisation and a gun for hire, but with clear partisan leanings.The entire network of people identified in the article associated with climate denialism, and cambridge analytica, are acting in grotesque, and arguably unethical or underhanded ways and appear blissfully unaware how low they have sunk. Perhaps they are so paranoid about their world changing, that they will stop at nothing to prevent this, so the ends come to justify the means. Yet their fears are exaggerated, and their self obsession with power and wealth has clearly become distorted.
People concerned about climate change, and people of moderate and sensible political views need to harden up and reject the agenda of the Kocks, Bannons and Mercers of this world and their front groups. They are manipulating decent but easily lead people with buzzwords and nonsense about "they will take our guns and freedoms" as a front for a corporate friendly agenda designed to remove all environmental rules, consumer protection rules, and enhance only the upper level corporate sector. The evidence for this is now staring America in the face. Wake up if you still can, and see it for what it is.
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NorrisM at 04:15 AM on 23 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
michael sweet @ 16
Thanks. This time I have downloaded the Connolly paper and will read it when I have some time.
Finally the essay on sea levels which I was waiting for on another website has now been published. It had nothing more specific on the Nerem 2018 paper so I probably will not raise any more questions on that paper.
The question of rising sea levels and the amount of acceleration we have seen since 1993 is so complex that I think all I can do is set out what a non-technical person has absorbed listening to both sides but I promise to have technical citations or IPCC references for anything (most of what) I say.
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michael sweet at 02:26 AM on 23 March 2018It's CFCs
Chanut.th
CFC's were banned by the Montreal accord. They are no longer used. HCFC's ad other less damaging substances are currently in use. Apparently HCFC's are also being phased out as they also damage the ozone layer. The issue is the ozone layer, which protects the Earth from damaging UV light, not protecting the Earth from heat.
After CFC's and other gasses are released into the atmosphere in the city they are mixed into the entire atmosphere by wind. In a relatively short time the entire atmosphere is mixed together. The heat is absorbed relatively uniformly over the entire Earth Since most of the Earth is covered by ocean, most of the energy absorbed goes into the ocean.
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NorrisM at 02:21 AM on 23 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
eclectic @ 25,
You asked me to provide a summary of Steven Pinker’s new book “Enlightenment Now” when I had finished reading it. I will take this opportunity to recommend this book highly to all readers of this website. I have no doubt that John Hartz Cook, who I understand is now doing research in the area of cognitive psychology (as it relates to reaching people or changing people’s views on climate change), will have read it by now.
I recall nigelj concerned that tones of Ayn Rand seem sprinkled in Pinker’s views generally. I only suggest you and nigel read the last chapter on Humanism to be disabused of that opinion. Pinker does not have nice things to say about Ayn Rand in this chapter. Although he clearly supports the general concepts of utilitarianism he comments on its flaws as well.
There are some very interesting observations in the book that contradict the general view that Trump’s road to victory was from voters left out of the globalized economy. In Pinker’s view, the populism rise has not been economic but rather a racial and an anti-immigration backlash both in the US and in Europe. But Pinker holds out hope. In his view, populism has seen its “Peak Populism” because it is largely demographic and the early Baby Boomers are dying off.
As well, Pinker is not just looking backwards in this book but is also looking forward. This becomes clear later in the book after his description of where we have come from in the last 250 years.
I obviously cannot provide a summary of the book but just to tempt you, here are the chapter headings:
Part I: Enlightenment
1. Dare to Understand
2. Entro, Evo, Info (a fascinating view of the world in 3 words)
3. Counter-EnlightenmentsPart II: Progress
4. Progressophobia
5. Life
6. Health
7. Sustenance
8. Wealth
9. Inequality
10. The Environment
11. Peace
12. Safety
13. Terrorism
14. Democracy
15. Equal Rights
16. Knowledge
17. Quality of Life
18. Happiness
19. Existential Threats
20. The Future of ProgressPart III: Reason, Science and Humanism
21. Reason
22. Science
23. HumanismWhether this is a positive or a negative to you, the precursor to this book “The Better Angels of Our Nature” was described by Bill Gates as “the most inspiring book I’ve ever read”. I suspect this one will supplant it.
My sense is that this book will have an impact on the discussion of where we are going as a human race whether or not you agree with all of his observations. For that reason alone, I suspect most should read it.
Moderator Response:[JH] Your reference to John Hartz is in error. It is John Cook, the founder of this website, who does research in cognitive psychology.
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chanut.th at 18:53 PM on 22 March 2018It's CFCs
CFC is a substance that is widely used around the world. Used as a component in various products such as refrigerators, air conditioners. And products that look like spray, although CFC will be a tremendous benefit to human life. Non-degradable substances in the atmosphere. It will float up to the stratosphere and be altered by the sun's rays. Become a chlorine particle and destroy ozone, which protects the Earth from heat.
The graph in the article shows the ocean heat at CFC. It was released in the city, why heat energy causes the ocean to heat up, as CFCs are released over urban areas.
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nigelj at 05:39 AM on 22 March 2018Developing countries need fossil fuels to reach the standard of living we enjoy, right?
jef @3
You make a fair point that poor countries are unlikely to have the same lifestyles as middle class western countries given resource constraints, but surely they should at least try, and can reasonably improve their condition? Especially with basic things like healthcare.
The real issue is choices that poor countries make for what energy development they do want and can afford. They have a choice of fossil fuels and renewable energy. It's that simple.
Fossil fuels are damaging the atmosphere and are a finite resource that will run out in 50 - 100 years. Renewable energy is low emissions, and is now cost competitive with fossil fuels, and it uses metals that can at least be recycled, and metals can be recycled indefinitely without degradation. There will be waste in the process, but we can minimse this, and ultimately all humanity can do is prolong its technological future as long as it can.
So the right choice should be obvious, and its not fossil fuels.
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shastatodd at 01:02 AM on 22 March 2018Developing countries need fossil fuels to reach the standard of living we enjoy, right?
agree jef... i get so tired of supposed intelligent human yeast (in nonsense articles like this), worshiping the god to technology as if it can mitigate finite planet realities, while we breed like mad and continue our massive consumption, non-negotiable lifestyles.
"renewable" energy isn’t... unless we are referring to waterwheels, windmills and photosynthesis, which cannot support 7.6 billion rapacious animals.
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jef12506 at 00:22 AM on 22 March 2018Developing countries need fossil fuels to reach the standard of living we enjoy, right?
Painfully naive. What made the developed world what it is was enormous, cheap almost free net energy profit (over 100 to 1) and abundant, easy to find, cheap almost free natural resources lying about ready to be gathered and exploited. That and large armies going around the world taking other peoples stuff (and the people too)and keeping them from using it for themselves.
Now energy is 10 to 1 or less, natural resources are very difficult to find and produce, and its not quite as PC to use slave labor. The only reason the developed world has not collapsed due to this development is the fact that we have all of the massive infrastructure already in place although it is crumbling and not easily maintained and cost too much for anyone to propose doing so.
Telling the developing world that they can live like we do on so called “renewable” energy is ignorant of the realities of human history. The one and only way it is possible is if the developed world pays for all of the infrastructure and development for them with our money and using our net energy to accomplish it. In truth we owe this to them for all we have done to them over the centuries but this will never happen.
The world can not afford to operate on low net energy and is collapsing due to the additional expense of depletion of natural resources and biosphere degradation. Those in charge understand that the future was going to be more expensive so they cut loose all constraints of finance in the hopes that everyone would get rich enough to afford it but debt is not energy or anything real for that matter.
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Ping34 at 13:42 PM on 21 March 2018CO2 limits will hurt the poor
I agree with skept.fr's comment (https://skepticalscience.com/co2-limits-poor-poverty.htm#70007) that the article itself does not answer the argument of how the poor would be affect by CO2 limit. The article does not address how the laws which limit the usage of CO2 will affect the poor; it only tells us about the effect that climate change would cause to the specific parts of the world.
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michael sweet at 12:08 PM on 21 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
Norrism2,
The Vox article only discusses renewable electricity. The Jacobson articles and Connolly's Smart Energy Europe discuss 100% of all power used. Connolly, which I started referring you to because you do not like Jacobson, found that as more of the economy is converted to electricity it is possible to get much greater penetration of wind and solar. They discuss the problems that are discussed in the Vox article. If you read the references I give you than the Vox discussion would not be news.
Connolly found that as more sectors of the economy become electrified more renewable energy can be used. They propose using electrofuels (the conversion of CO2 into methane or other carbon fuels using renewable energy) to supply the storage energy. Jacobson's plan is similar using hydrogen instead of electrofuels.
In 100 years oil, coal and gas will run out. Surely you do not think civilization will collapse then. We all expect this problem to be solved. Why don't we just solve it now since it has to be done in the end?
The Vox article appears to try to preserve as much of the current system as possible for political reasons. As more and more renewable energy is built it will not be economic to preserve fossil fuels. Currently nuclear and coal are no longer economic. Once a proper carbon fee is implemented all renewable will become the cheapest option (or possibly earlier, solar is cheaper than gas in some places now).
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RedBaron at 08:12 AM on 21 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
@11 Liberator,
Yes, there are several flaws in the paper you posted. Primarily the mistake being made is conflating fixed carbon with sequestered carbon. All plants fix carbon. Trees do in fact have more biomass. However this is not the same as sequestering carbon out of the rapidly cycling short carbon cycle and entering the long term carbon cycle (geological time frames of stability) Grasses have less biomass than trees but higher efficiency rate of photosynthesis. Where does all that extra products of photosynthesis end up? Deep in the soil where a much higher % is SEQUESTERED into deep geological time through soil building.
Two great papers by Dr Gregory J. Retallack regarding this ecosystem function of the grasslands compared to forests which cycle carbon relatively rapidly. (through fire and decay)
Cenozoic Expansion of Grasslands and Climatic Cooling
Global Cooling by Grassland
Soils of the Geological Past
and Near FutureDr Christine Jones ran multiple 10 year CSIRO case studies on the rate at which properly managed grasslands and agricultural land can sequester CO2 into the soil. The average measured sequestration rate over 10 years was 5-20 tonnes CO2/ha/yr (yes there were even higher in some cases which were thrown out as outliers.)[1]
A couple good layman's explanations of Dr Jones' work can be found here:
Why pasture cropping is such a Big Deal
Technical Brief: The Liquid Carbon Pathway
Pasture Cropping: A Regenerative Solution from Down Under
There is confirming evidence all over the world, this is not just a phenomenon of Australia.
Here is just one confirming increases of grasslands' sequestration rates simply by changing management strategies in Texas. Falls right in the middle of the ranges Dr Jones found.
I already posted the study from Idaho showing increased soil moisture levels associated with proper grassland management.
Here is another layman's explanation of how it works:
How to fight desertification and reverse climate change
Here is a couple white papers for policy makers, one written by me, the other by Dr Richard Teague:
RESTORING THE CLIMATE THROUGH CAPTURE
AND STORAGE OF SOIL CARBON THROUGH
HOLISTIC PLANNED GRAZING -
nigelj at 07:06 AM on 21 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
Norris @12, yes the Vox article and interview is definitely useful. I was aware of all these issues in general terms, but not all the details.
I see the issue this way fwiw. Jacobsen thinks a 100% renewable grid is already practically economically feasible, and for all I know he may be right.However put that aside for now as one view ( a very good view).
The article appeared to say an 80% renewable grid is feasible practically and economically at roughly current prices and state of knowledge. Imho thats enough to make large inroads into addressing the climate issue, even if it isn't perfect, and I feel that is sufficient justification to proceed. And its not unreasonable to assume the economics and practical options on both supply and storage will improve towards 100% over time. It's enough to enable society to confidently embrace renewables.
While gas fired plant is not ideal, if it comprises just 10 - 20% of peaking supply, it may at that level of use be feasible to bury the CO2 emissions underground. Are you smiling? I suspect you are smiling at least a little.
I honestly think the nuclear option is in the hands of the engineers. They need to come up with new alternatives that are quicker to build and less reliant on difficult to access materials. The safety issue is complex, because you can argue logically that even with accidents nuclear energy causes fewer deaths "per capita" overall than coal for example and perhaps even some formms of renewable energy. However its a public perception issue of the dangers, and the only workable answer might be that the nuclear industry need to somehow get this across to the public, and also come up with safer systems to improve confidence and public acceptance.
I don't care if significant parts of the solar or wind supply are "curtailed" given its cheap power, and this is done already with conventional energy supplies.
Anyway it was indeed an interesting article.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:00 AM on 21 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #11
NorrisM@12,
The undeniable requirement is for the current generation to stop creating more challenges, costs and harm for future generations, or at least limit impacts to a 2.0 C increase of global averrage surface temperature. Nobody has offered up any substantial justified new information to change that robustly established emergent truth, and it is highly unlikely that anyone ever will.
One question comes to mind. If the USA will 'end up at' 80% renewable and 20% natural gas power supply, if that is 'the best that can be done', what happens to the USA after the natural gas is done?
Setting aside that thorny questionable future, to achieve the required corrections of what has developed to date all of the richest clearly need to be 'compelled/motivated to responsibly lead the required correction, at their expense'. That means the richest redirecting their efforts and investment into sustainable activities, even if it means a perceived loss of personal wealth because unsustainable perceptioins are just that - unsustainable. That means none of the richest making a penny from the activities related to the 20% burning of natural gas. It also means the richest paying for the non-profitable removal of CO2 from the atmosphere at the rate required to neutralize the impacts of the burning of natural gas, plus the rate to keep the temperature impact of increasing CO2 to 2.0 C and bring it back down to 1.5 C.
That is understandably what is required. Eventually getting to 20% burning of fossil fuels for power, and claiming that a slow creep towards that objective is the 'best that can be done', is only proof that the reluctant among the richest do not deserve their developed perceptions of wealth or power.
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