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John Hartz at 01:43 AM on 2 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
A slew of high-quality articles about the recent heat wave in the Arctic and its impact on weather in the Northern Hemisphere have been published around the world over the past few days. I have posted links to some of them on the SkS Facebook page. Here's listing of the links I have posted to date.
Has the Arctic Finally Reached a Tipping Point? by Brian Kahn, Science, Earther, Feb 23, 2018
Really extreme' global weather event leaves scientists aghast by Peter Hannam, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb 26, 2018
North Pole surges above freezing in the dead of winter, stunning scientists by Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Feb 26, 2018
Arctic warmer than much of Europe is a worrying sign of climate change by Stuart Braun, Deutsche Welle (DW), Feb 27, 2018
Arctic heat spasm caused by stratosphere warming has a southern cousin by Peter Hannam, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb 28, 2018
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Alchemyst at 00:33 AM on 2 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Nijelj I believe you live in the southern hemisphere. This unprescedented weather is well known here and yes I remember 2011 where it was some 20 C below normal temperatures, and yes the sunspots were low that winter.
I read your newspaper report now have a read of mine.
"So cold the SEA froze: Current cold snap is nothing compared to -22C winter of 1963",
In 1962-63 sea ports were frozen. This has certainly not happened this year
The daily mirror
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-winter-of-1963-was-so-cold-1539625
This type of weather is well known in Europe and is not unprescedented as your report says. Please look at the weather map from the Royal Met office and yes it does seem that the arctic get the atlantic weather and western europe gets frozen. other similar instances are documentad in the report. please note the comment, that the meteorologist expects these events to become rarer with climate change. somehow you just can't win.
https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/abstracts/Mar/16032013-burt.pdf
“The winter of 2010/11 was a rare weather event, even in the context of the 352 years of the Central England temperature record. Yet while the odds of such an event have lengthened as a result of human influence on climate, such unlikely events can still happen, as the winter of 2010/11 demonstrated.” – Nikolaos Christidis and Peter Stott, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , July 2012
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Alchemyst at 23:28 PM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Moderator Response:[DB] Image resized to 450 width. Please limit all further images to that or less.
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Alchemyst at 23:23 PM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_12_2012/post-2026-0-78277000-1356101751.png
People are commenting (comment 1 and 2)that this weird warming of the pole is unprescedented, Yet 1962 we had the same pattern and this minor cold wave bit of cold weather in western europe is nothing as to what happened in 1962 to 63. It was for more than 3 months. I thought it was common knowledge what had happened in Britain in 1962, indeed 1948, and 1933 also had severe weather in Britain. for whatever the reason it seems to be corrolated with low sun spot activity, but it is certainly has prescedent.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20785406
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MA Rodger at 23:02 PM on 1 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM @178.
The US Global Change Research Program Fourth National Climate Assessment - Volume I sets out the 2000-2100 GMSL rise in its Executive Summary as:-
"1.0–4.3 feet (30–130 cm) by 2100 (very high confidence in lower bounds; ... low confidence in upper bounds for 2100)."
Your 11" SLR by 2100 (+27.94cm) lies outside the range 30-130cm with its "very high confidence in lower bounds". To suggest your 11" is "just about "dead on" the lower limit" is incorrect. It is outside the limits. And (rounding errors aside) it also sits outside the limits set out in IPCC AR5 Chapter 13 Table 13.5, an assessment which is often criticised for having under-evaluated SLR.
So do you consider an apology is truly in order? And when will you make it?
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:36 PM on 1 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM@173
“I just have to admit that your comments are so long and have so much in them that I honestly give up”Really? I felt that my first comment to you @15 was fairly concise. So were my comments @32 and @44.
My comment @46 was also rather clearly to the point and founded on the content of my previous comments, and the comments of others. It included:
“I have to ask if you understand, accept and support the need for the global impacts of human activity to be limited to a level that climate science indicates has a good chance of less than 2.0C increase of global average surface temperature above pre-industrial levels.
"If you disagree with that understanding, that all of the global leaders agreed was the proper understanding of what was needed to responsibly limit the harm done to future generations, please provide the 'substantial new climate science evidence' that was not part of the basis for the understanding and acceptance of the Paris Agreement. 'Substantial new climate science evidence' is the only thing that would justify changing such a decision (not the election of a different leader in the USA).”
My comment@53 was lengthier to try to make the understanding clearer to you. And the lack of any response from you to my earlier comments led to the even longer @62, but mainly because I included the large quote from the UN Report.
My comment @63 was another attempt to help you more correctly understand this issue. And my comment @70 was a further attempt to get a reasoned and justified answer in response to your first suggestion that you would respond to my comments (your comment @69).
My comment @98 was a more expansive attempt to present information that would help clarify understanding of issues you seemed to struggle to grasp the correct understanding of.
My reply @133 and @136 to your comment @132 were added attempts to help you correctly understand what I was presenting, as was my comment @139. And my comment @143 elaborated on the sea level rise matter to help you correctly understand my points. As were my comment @146, @148 and @170.
Then comes your comment@173 with the opening para leading me to provide the above summary and explanation.
Your second paragraph is full of misunderstandings or incorrect assumptions about me, and an apparent wish to not admit that my MBA may give me a better understanding of the Present Value of money and its correct use.
And your last para is full of gross misunderstandings or deliberate misrepresentations of my awareness and understanding of what is going on, other than 'our different philosophies'. Your 'philosophy' appears to be to try to excuse understandably unacceptable things that have developed. My 'philosophy' is to try to help people better understand what is really going on and the 'changes of understanding required regarding what has developed' (what you call - "... convincing our governments (and the populace) that certain actions should be taken.").
The political realities of the 'Real World' admittedly delay correcting understandingly unacceptable developments. But when the corrections occur they can be very rapid. History is full of dramatic rapid corrections of things that had unacceptably over-developed in a harmful unsustainable way. The correction of the burning of fossil fuels is unlikely to be an exception.
I have tried to help you be more aware of and correctly understanding of my understanding of what is going on. But you do not appear to be interested in correctly understanding what I present.
Thank you for presenting case study examples of the type of thinking and claim-making that I understand needs to be corrected. Even if you choose not to better understand the many aspects of this issue, others may learn from your example. And I am more certain that I have a Good understanding of what is going on, the motivations of those who try to deny (or delay, or diminish) the corrections of what has developed that climate science has identified are required for the benefit of the future of humanity (there I go - that idealism that people can learn to change their minds and help improve the future for humanity, that you appear to disagree with).
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nigelj at 12:52 PM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Sorry for appearing to be repeating stuff, but the moderators message wasn't there when I pressed submit.
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nigelj at 12:49 PM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Alchemyst @5
"Please could somone tell me how do we know what the jet stream was like 290 years ago when it was only discovered in the mid 20th centurey?"
I didn't know either, but If you actually read the research link "2018 study in nature communications" in the article you find they used tree rings. The research is outside my knowledge, however this media article describes it in plain language.
news.azpm.org/p/news-articles/2018/1/25/123011-tree-rings-tell-story-of-jet-stream/
"The rings of trees from Britain and the northeastern Mediterranean region tell a long history of the jet stream. That's allowed a team of scientists to piece together 300 years of the flow of the North Atlantic jet stream in summer."
"So we used the wood density, and that's been found to be very sensitive to temperature conditions. So in cold summers you'll have less dense wood, and in hot summers you'll have more dense wood," said Valerie Trouet, an assistant professor of tree-ring research at the UA."
"Trouet said since the 1960s there have been more instances of the jet stream moving off its average position. When the North Atlantic jet stream is more north, Britain is much warmer than normal. In Italy and the Balkans, there are floods and colder conditions. That's reversed when the jet stream has a more southerly track."
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NorrisM at 12:46 PM on 1 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
michael sweet @ 177
I see what you are saying about the Climate Report upper estimate but I will reserve comment on how much weight the Climate Report places on the 8 ft number until I have read the chapter on sea level rise. From the summary you cannot get any sense of what risk they assign to this. It obviously has to do with "what if" issues relating either to the Greenland ice sheet or the West Antarctic glaciers.
But you have ignored my request to withdraw your following statement made at 153:
"Your claim of 11 inches of sea level rise by 2100 is false.
At the time you made this statement you were fully aware that I was using this figure as a measurement from today to 2100 and not from 1880.
Given that this 11 inch "linear guesstimate by me is just about "dead on" the lower limit given by the Climate Report, I would ask you why you would use such a pejorative term as "false" when in fact it is the actual figure (one inch off) used by the Climate Report.
Was my statement false? I think I am owed an apology.
I am a little disappointed that the Moderator has not weighed in on my behalf. I am sure he or she well knew that my use of 11" was not off the mark. It was very clear that I was referencing 2018 to 2100. For that matter the Climate Report is using 12" from 2000 if I am not mistaken. So if anything I am higher than the lower limit.
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Alchemyst at 11:20 AM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
that the jet stream has become increasingly wavy over the past 50 years, to a degree unprecedented in the past 290 years,
Please could somone tell me how do we know what the jet stream was like 290 years ago when it was only discovered in the mid 20th centurey?
Moderator Response:[PS] If you had bothered to read the linked paper in the article, it would tell you. This is a site for the discussion of science of global warming. Please dont try to substitute in rhetoric instead.
Perhaps this would be a useful guideline to create a sensible discussion since you clearly dont like the result. Which of factors here are you disputing and why.
1/ That deep waves in the jetstream cause extreme weather (heat wave, heavy snow)?
2/ That jetstream is currently weakening and becoming more wavy?
3/ That climate change is causing the changes to the jetstream?
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Alchemyst at 11:11 AM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
nigelj,
I'm afraid some brits tell me that this cold spell is nothing like what happened in 1962
Moderator Response:[PS] and have they data to back that up? Where does "1962" come from anyway. I dont it in nigelj comment nor linked reference.
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David Kirtley at 10:48 AM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
David Roberts has a few good quotes on this topic of how "climate change" is related to extreme weather. This one is from when he wrote for Grist:
There is no division, in the physical world, between “climate change storms” and “non-climate change storms.” Climate change is not an exogenous force acting on the atmosphere. There is only the atmosphere, changing. Everything that happens in a changed atmosphere is “caused” by the atmosphere, even if it’s within the range of historical variability. Climate change is just the term we use to describe those changes.
And more recently, writing for Vox on last year's hurricanes:
“Did climate change cause this hurricane?” is a malformed question.
Climate change does not cause things, because climate change is not a causal agent. “Climate change” is a descriptive term — it describes the fact that the climate is changing. What’s causing the changes is an increase in heat energy trapped in the atmosphere, due to greenhouse gases.
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nigelj at 05:03 AM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
A similar thing is happening now with Europes unusually cold weather and very high arctic temperatures. This article discusses the events and the possible mechanism.
www.dw.com/en/arctic-warmer-than-much-of-europe-is-a-worrying-sign-of-climate-change/a-42759475
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:49 AM on 1 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
It would be good also to mention more specifically the extraordinary Arctic winter event that has unfolded this year, with temperatures above freezing at extreme lattitudes in the dead of the polar night and the lowest sea ice extent recorded for January.
WaPo article previously referenced by OPOF on another thread. Links to the Danish Meteorological Institute. Arctic Temperatures as high as 20 deg C above normal.
Sea ice is not tracking any better now, NSIDC shows that we are fast approcahing the max extent time and have barely made it above 14 millions square kilometers. Of all the features of climate change, I find the loss of Arctic sea ice to be one of the most worrisome; it is truly a geological scale event that we are witnessing in a blink of an eye.
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michael sweet at 03:53 AM on 1 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM
From paragraph 6 of the executive summary of the US Climate Report 2017 which I have copied for you before here at SkS:
"Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out." my emphasis
They put this number at the top so everyone would see it.
When they say they have "low confidence" in their upper bounds that means they think they may have underestimated the high end and that it is possible for it to be much higher. That is no reason to be confident about your low ball number, it is a reason to be less confident in low numbers. They are very confident that sea level rise will be higher than their low estimate.
Apparently they are estimating rise from today so you have to add 9 inches to obtain total rise.
As I have quoted to you before and above, 8 feet is what they think is a possible maximum before adding the acceleration from Nerem and the recently documented destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Engineers are generally required to design public works so that they survive the worst case ie 8 feet of sea level rise.
"Plan for the worst and hope for the best" is appropriate. Planning for the best and hoping that it works out is a receipt for disaster
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NorrisM at 02:43 AM on 1 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
michael sweet @ 153
I have now read the Executive Summary of the US Climate Report 2017 and look forward to reading Ch 14 on sea level rise. In the above post you state that my claim of 11" from now to 2100 "is false" and you exhort me to consider a possible sea level rise of 8 feet by 2100.
But here is what the Executive Summary has to say about sea level rises for the period up to 2100:
"Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3–0.6 feet (9–18 cm) by 2030, 0.5–1.2 feet (15–38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0–4.3 feet (30–130 cm) by 2100 (very high confidence in lower bounds; medium confidence in upper bounds for 2030 and 2050; low confidence in upper bounds for 2100). Future emissions pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century (high confidence)."
So my suggestion of 11" is pretty close to the low range prediction of the Climate Report of 1.0 ft. Is it not a little extreme to call my "linear" estimate of 11" "false"?
And as for your 8 ft number, I know somewhere else in the Report this "outside" number is used (I think based upon the unrealistic RCP 8.5) but as to its upper bound estimate of 4.3 ft the Climate Report states that it has "low confidence" in this estimate. So if the Report has "low confidence" in 4.3 ft then what reliance should be place on 8 ft?
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michael sweet at 21:32 PM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
What MA Rdger said times two.
"You fail to differentiate between a bunch of AGW deniers and a grown-up call for more action to mitigate AGW" describes NorrisM perfectly.
Lomborg has no expertise in environmental matters. He has a degree in Political Science, not science. He has never published a peer reveiwed paper on an environmental issue. He has gained fame for claiming expertise he does not have and writing OP-ED pieces that support raping the planet.
It is typical for deniers to cite an industry shill as an environmental expert.
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MA Rodger at 19:28 PM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM @173,
You clearly continue to have "it wrong."
The Copenhagen Consensus on Climate argues for nothing in common with that called for by the Global Apollo Programme. You will note that the Copenhagen Consensus On Climate considers amongst other apparent options action to mitigate AGW, mitigation being predicated with the following assertion:-
"Humankind is changing the earth’s energy balance. It is doing so by releasing large amounts of greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions into the atmosphere. While it is still a matter of scientific debate how much the build-up will alter our climate, there is little doubt that at least some change will occur, with potentially serious ecological, social and economic implications."
So there is even remaining doubt attached to there view that 'potentially' there will eventually be serious implications from AGW.
This is a different ballpark from the Global Apollo Programme who express no doubt and bucket-loads of urgency for a big increase in mitigation measures.
"By 2035 the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will exceed the critical level for a 2 ̊C rise in temperature and on current policies the temperature will eventually reach 4 ̊C above the pre-industrial level. This is the central forecast, implying a 50% chance of still higher temperatures. We must take action to prevent this, by radically cutting the world’s output of carbon dioxide (see Figure). We must reduce the use of energy and we must make the energy we use clean i.e. free of carbon-dioxide emissions. This Report is about how to make energy clean."
You fail to differentiate between a bunch of AGW deniers and a grown-up call for more action to mitigate AGW.
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NorrisM at 14:43 PM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
OPOF @ 170
Let me apologize for often not replying to you when I have made replies to others at the same time. I just have to admit that your comments are so long and have so much in them that I honestly give up.
I fully respect your qualifications as an engineer who even worked in the Canadian oil and gas sector before moving out of Alberta. I am sure that one of your reasons for moving out of Alberta was the attitude of Albertans to anything that could impact their welfare which is clearly tied to the production of oil and gas. I have to admit that when I am in Calgary on business I tend not to get into discussions of climate change because it does not go over well. With my good friends I can have some discussion but even then I watch what I say. Somewhat like suggesting to Republicans while in the US that there were some good things about Obama.
But there is another reason why I often do not respond which relates to our different philosophies and what I consider to be your somewhat unrealistic view of the political systems under which we operate, at least in the Western World. The key word is "democracy". There is no world government and everything we do has to be based upon convincing our governments (and the populace) that certain actions should be taken. I often see (perhaps wrongly) a desire in you that we had some rational benevolent world dictator who could wave a magic wand and make everything right. Because of that there is much we disagree on even if we agreed in principle on many things if there were such a benevolent dictator in charge. I just think it is wasted time not taking into account the political realities which exist in the world.
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NorrisM at 14:07 PM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
michael sweet @ 169
I clearly had it wrong.
First of all, the "Council of Scientists" as I called it is the "Copenhagen Consensus" which is a collection of scientists who do believe that the best expenditure of funds to battle climate change is to invest significant capital into research into green technologies rather than cutting off the public's present use of fossil fuels without viable alternatives for major sectors of the economy and world (read storage for one example).
But here is the connection to Lord Stern.
On Lomborg's website referencing the Paris Agreement and what it does or does not achieve here was a reference to the Apollo Program which has the same aims:
"Copenhagen Consensus has consistently argued for a R&D-driven approach. Fortunately, more people are recognizing that this approach is cheaper and much more likely to succeed –including the Global Apollo Program which includes Sir David King, Lord Nicholas Stern, Lord Adair Turner and Lord John Browne."
So Lord Stern is not part of Bjorn Lomborg's Copenhagen Consensus but is part of a group which seems to have the same objectives.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:14 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM:
By all means enjoy your vacation, and cut back on what my wife calls "climate blogging". There will still be issues to discuss when you get home - we won't have solved them all by then.
What OPOF describes as "the impacts they impose on those others are less than the benefit they get for themselves," fall into what economists call "externalities": I get personal benefit while someone else bears the costs. Great for me in teh short term if I'm selfish; not so good for society (and maybe me) when the poor suffering peasants get uppity and find weapons to fight with.
As for the IPCC reports: keep in mind that the three working groups have completely different areas of study. WG I is climate science. The other two deal with economic and social issues. Also keep in mind that there is a hierachy of information here:
- Summaries provide, well, summaries of the main reports.
- The main reports go into much more detail.
- Ultimately, even the main reports refer to the scientific literature. It's in the scientific literature that you will find the greatest level of detail.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:12 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM@167,
I hope that your understanding of present value of money and the related assumptions is consistent with my reply to scaddenp@165.
I have an MBA and decades of observation and consideration of what is going on as the basis for that understanding. But it does not even require a business class in economics to understand that any evaluation that combines/compares future benefit/cost is only legitimate if the same people experience all the benefits and costs now and into the future of what is evaluated.
Any other evaluation would be like a person justifying doing something that causes costs/problems/harm for other people by declaring that the impacts they impose on those others are less than the benefit they get for themselves, with the comparison done as 'they (not the harmed person) sees it'.
Properly understood, there is no need for complicated assessments to understand what is acceptable and what needs to change regarding climate change. Any negative impact on future generations is unacceptable. And the politics of popularity in pursuit of bargaining to get away with creating more future harm, delaying the correction of the incorrect things hat have developed, can be seen clearly as being grossly unacceptable.
As for International Leadership, the UN led the development of the IPCC, Kyoto, the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Agreement (along with many other international leadership actions that are contrary to the damaging unsustainable developed desires among humanity).
I am glad you appear to appreciate the unacceptability of what has developed and have the abiliity to recognise the specific players in humanity who deserve penalties for their behaviours. But I have yet to see you bluntly admit that recognition of reality. Your presentations tend towards excusing the bad behavers among us, and tend towards finding and arguing for excuses for their understandably unacceptable harmful unsustainable behaviour.
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nigelj at 10:05 AM on 28 February 2018Scientists have detected an acceleration in sea level rise
I thought much the same as Riduna. It's human nature to try to reach personal conclusions on what it all means, even if the data is not 100% conclusive. I think a smart assessment would be definitely one metre by end of century, with a very distinct possibility of more.
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michael sweet at 09:07 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
Norrism:
I get nothing from GOOGLEing Lomborg Stern "Council of Scientists" and also nothing from Lomborg "council of Scientists". Can you provide a link supporting your unbelievable claim that Lord Stern would work with Lomborg.
It is easy to make false claims. Please support your claims.
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Riduna at 07:16 AM on 28 February 2018Scientists have detected an acceleration in sea level rise
As pointed out by Dr Abraham, sea level rise is primarily caused by loss of polar ice and, to a lesser extent, thermal expansion of water. The prediction of a 65 cm. rise in sea level by 2100 appears to be based on the assumption that loss of polar ice does not change over the next 82 years.
Is this true – or is the rate of polar ice loss likely to accelerate? The latter seems certain, a view supported by eminent specialist climate scientists, including Drs. Rignot, Velicogna and Hansen, who point to on-going acceleration in the rate of ice loss from the three polar ice sheets.
They point to Arctic amplification which is accelerating both surface melt and glacier discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet and to the effects of formation of warming bottom water on the West Antarctic Ice sheet grounded on the seabed. These developments can only result in much more rapid acceleration of mean global sea level rise.
How much will sea level rise by 2100? At present, this can not be accurately determined but a multi-metre rise by 2100 is certainly possible and is becoming increasingly likely with accelerating polar ice mass loss.
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BaerbelW at 05:04 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM @ 160 & 164
Ocean-Acidification.net is a website dedicated to just this particular and worrying issue. It has lots of graphics and articles to explore.
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NorrisM at 02:40 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
scaddenp @ 162
About the only two things I took away from my undergraduate economics degree was the present value of money and the importance of assumptions in any analysis (ie my joke about the economist's contribution to opening the can of beans on the desert island).
The arguments of what discount rates to use render any discussion about future costs of climate change very problematic. The assumptions used again make the discussion very difficult.
Again, my point is that governments have a lot more resources than we do to come up with some estimates of the costs but we once again meet up with the problem that there is no world body that has any power to do anything about it.
The information that China's population is more at risk than any other nation state is somewhat interesting. If there is one thing the oligarchy in China is concerned about is staying in power and keeping its nation united. This should be a strong incentive for China to come up with innovative ways to deal with climate change knowing that they have 50 million people to protect.
I hate to say it but I look at Florida with some amusement. Did they only discover yesterday that some areas are only 12" above sea level? Or was it not a problem when it was 15" perhaps 10 years ago? I have no idea what the annual rate of sea level change is in this area.
As for Lomborg, I have read his book and I recall the reception I received on this website bt making reference to him.
I might be mistaken but I believe that Stern has joined Lomborg's "council of scientists". I am sure I will be corrected if I am wrong on this. Even if that is the case I am not sure what that means as to whether any of his views have changed. I do not follow Lomborg's website.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:32 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
in my prevous comment the second last paragraph is intended to end at ... flawed global economy.
More could be stated, but 'is leaving for' is a legacy of original phrasing that I made a last second edit of.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:19 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
scaddenp@162,
When you develop the understanding that future generations are 'others' and that the only sustainable perceptions of wealth are the perceptions developed due to truly sustainable economic activity, you understand that even the criticized 'lower discount rate' used by Stern is unacceptably high.
One of the recommendations in the detailed back-up of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is for the discount rate to be zero, to be fairer to future generations. Even a discount rate of zero isn't truly 'fair' to future generations.
A proper evaluation would simply identify all of the unproductive costs and reduced resources (including decimated agricultural land due to unsustainable industrial agriculture) 'Others in the future to have to deal with' that are the result of unjustified Winning by Private Interest pursuits of benefit that incorrectly over-developed in the flawed global economy is leaving for.
The correction of those unsustainable incorrectly over-developed perceptions is contrary to the Private Interests of many already very fortunate people who refuse to give up 'pursuing more benefit any way they can get away with'.
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NorrisM at 02:09 AM on 28 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
Bob Loblaw @ 161 & 163
Thanks for the reference re ocean acidification.
As for the studies, I printed the 50 page assessment of the IPCC that I read which is at home so I will defer trying to locate the information now. My wife is not impressed with how much time I am spending on my notebook so I do have to watch my time spent. Clearly I have not read everything published by the IPCC but what I did read was the IPCC making the statements that I have referenced above which obviously took into account everything they had published. I will locate it when I am home in late March.
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jef12506 at 00:34 AM on 28 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
It does not matter one bit if it is fully automated or so called "regenerative" when the climate swings wildly from record heat and drought, to record cold and atmospheric rivers dumping 20" of rain in a day or two flooding out all your efforts.
Regenerative agriculture was a great concept. I wish we could have adopted it 50 years ago.
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RedBaron at 19:57 PM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
@6 Riduna,
It's not the tools of agriculture you have wrong, it's how those tools are used. And yes Australian farmers are inventive. Here is one example:
Why pasture cropping is such a Big Deal
Pasture Cropping: A Regenerative Solution from Down Under
And a 10 year case study of the above + several other inventive Australian farms also developing other similar types of regenerative agriculture?
Liquid carbon pathway unrecognised
"If all farmland was a net sink rather than a net source for CO2, atmospheric CO2 levels would fall at the same time as farm productivity and watershed function improved. This would solve the vast majority of our food production, environmental and human health ‘problems’." Dr. Christine Jones
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Bob Loblaw at 12:30 PM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM @ 160:
There is a good but lengthy series of posts on ocean acidification at SkS. The last post in the series (with links to all other parts), is here:
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scaddenp at 12:26 PM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM - try the Stern review. Attempts to show otherwise (eg Lomborg) can only do so by not talking about risk and positing impacts lower than anything in the IPCC studies. There have been numerous criticism of Stern for discounting rates, but also plenty of concern (even from Stern himself) that in hindsights, the risks were underestimated.
Maybe a new analysis might do better, but to make a convincing case for not mitigating, someone needs to publish a study with that kind of breadth that also makes a realistic assessment of risks and impacts. So far, I have only seen hand-wavy stuff or over-sold critiques of Stern that dont change the overall conclusion.
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Bob Loblaw at 12:25 PM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
NorrisM @159:
Before I go on a wild goose chase into the IPCC reports, can you clarify just what you have looked at to support your statement that it "has very little in it on actual numbers"?
I am wondering in particular if you have looked at the full reports for Working Groups II and III.
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NorrisM at 10:59 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
michael sweet @ 153
I have to say that what troubles me most about what is happening with climate change is the increasing acidification of our oceans and the potential loss of our coral and the implications this has for our oceans and the living organisms in it. Maybe this is how you get to "conservatives".
There is no way to fix this by spending money later. I personally do not see the nation states of this world coming together. If they cannot even clean up the plastic in the oceans, then what hope is there for the coral? I am not very conversant on this. Is there a thread on this website which deals with the loss of coral and ocean acidification?
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nigelj at 10:54 AM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
What I'm saying is humanity is not going to be able to simply "adapt" our way out of climate change with technology as Riduna seems to be saying, and so we better cut emissions. Technology will of course help.
I'm a big technology fan, but a world of millions of robots is probably a fantasy because there are going to be too many shortages of critical metals. I'm very sure humanity will be forced to chart a rather more careful path, with technology moving more towards the essential things even in rich market economy countries.
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NorrisM at 10:51 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
michael sweet @ 153
"It will be much cheaper to take action to reduce CO 2now than to try to repair the damage in the future."
Here is the rub.
My understanding is that the IPCC Fifth Assessment has very little in it on actual numbers making any such comparisons for very obvious reasons. You have criticized me for not having any "peer reviewed studies" for various common sense comments I have made. Is this your "common sense" view or can you provide me with some study that has concluded this? I am not criticizing you if you do not have a peer reviewed study but just making a point about asking for "peer reviewed statements" for any comments or questions posed on this website.
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nigelj at 10:43 AM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
Riduna "It is not science fiction to believe, indeed expect, that the future of farming is likely to be linked to the use of electrically driven, computer controlled equipment such as those shown in this video."
Yes definitely in Australia and similar countries if they want, (NZ also has some pretty smart farmers) but if you think this can be scaled up globally in an idealistic way, I think you are mistaken. Do some reading on resource scarcity and population growth. Put it this way, things are going to have to change in certain respects. However point taken.
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NorrisM at 10:40 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
michael sweet @ 153
Here is a qualification stated in the Climate Central Study you quote: "The ranges depend on the ultimate sensitivity of sea level to warming."
I could not find any reference to what assumed sea level rise by 2100 is used in the study. Do you know? If you are quoting these figures I assume you have access to the New York Times more detailed information.
You are placing a lot of emphasis on the Nerem 2018 paper. I have not finished reading the information from the US Climate Change Report or the other website but my understanding from what I have read so far that Nerem has basically reinterpreted the data from the first 6 years of TOPAZ and then made some assumptions about what would have happened to sea levels if Mt Pitulabo would not have erupted in 1991. From my understanding the first 6 years of TOPAZ is so problematic that it should simply be discarded.
My suggestion is that when I get through this reading material, I will post any comments I have on the sea level rise thread but address the post to you.
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Riduna at 10:28 AM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
nigelj & Red Barron
Australia is well known for its inventiveness and the success of its inventions and its farmers are, as in many other parts of the world, ‘conservative’. However they are also smart and quick to recognise how mechanisation can improve their productivity and profitability. Australian scientists are showing them how this can be done.
It is not science fiction to believe, indeed expect, that the future of farming is likely to be linked to the use of electrically driven, computer controlled equipment such as those shown in this video.
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nigelj at 08:39 AM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
"Climate scientist Jim Salinger: a letter to my grandchildren"
A New Zealand climate scientist talking about the impacts of climate change recently, and as projected, including on human health.
www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12002170
Apologies for spamming a little with several comments, but the Salinger article just appeared and seemed relevant.
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michael sweet at 08:00 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
John Hartz,
From the UCS paper:
"Using the Army Corps of Engineers scenario and tide gauge
data from Virginia Key, UCS analysis projects that tidal flooding
is likely to affect areas in Miami, Miami Beach, Coral
Gables, and other nearby cities around 80 times per year
by 2030 (compared to roughly six per year currently) and
more than 380 times per year by 2045. [!!] In 2045, given normal
variations in the tides, while some days would be flood-free,
many days would see one or even two flood events—one
with each high tide." my emphasisAt some point insurance (currently provided by the government) will not be extended any more to houses that flood many times per year. Once that happens banks will not loan mortgages and the property values will collapse. Since this paper projects 80 floods per year in only 13 years (!!!) one wonders how long it will be before banks catch on.
It states that 20% of Miami-Dade county is within 12 inches of sea level. 15 inches of sea level rise is expected by 2050. A big hurricane (they just dodged one last summer) will swamp the city.
OMG!
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scaddenp at 07:11 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
"This discussion began with your claim that it might be good for the economy that people have a lot of work to do to adapt to climate change."
NorrisM is really desparate for reasons to do nothing. Wild suppositions in preference to the literature that actually crunches the numbers.
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nigelj at 06:11 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
"What would happen if we burned through all of the fossil-fuel resources known to exist? In a paper published today in the journal Science Advances, a quartet of German, American, and British researchers take on this question. The answer, not surprisingly, is grim. If mankind managed to combust the world’s known conventional deposits of coal, gas, and oil, and then went on to consume all of its “unconventional” ones, like tar-sands oil and shale gas, the result would be emissions on the order of ten trillion tons of carbon. Average global temperatures would soar, and the world would remain steamy for millennia. After ten thousand years, the planet would still be something like fourteen degrees Fahrenheit hotter than it is today. All of the world’s mountain glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet would melt away; Antarctica, too, would eventually become pretty much ice free. Sea levels would rise by hundreds of feet."
www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/if-we-burned-all-the-fossil-fuel-in-the-world
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nigelj at 05:53 AM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
There's another problem with things like AI automated farming and heavy duty robotics. The world probably doesn't have enough mineral resources left to scale these up in every country in the world. We will struggle just to do basic products and renewable energy etcetera.
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RedBaron at 05:40 AM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
@ riduna,
Sory to burst your bubble but your vision of the future of agriculture can not even begin to exist, because long before it is even fully developed, it crashes.
Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues
Furthermore, it is only cheaper, more efficient, and higher yielding than currently extremely inefficient, expensive, low yielding, low profit industrial "green revolution" agriculture. It doesn't even approach sustainability, nor even touch far more modern regenerative holistic approaches on any of those most important catagories.
The real trend that has a chance at least of sustainability?
"Organic systems and the practices that make them effective are being picked up more and more by conventional agriculture and will become the foundation for future farming systems." - Dr. Charles Benbrook
But probably the most important point of all, your vision cooks the ecosystems that support agriculture even worse! They are a net carbon emissions source rather than a net sink as properly done agriculture.
"The first duty of the agriculturalist must always be to understand that he is part of nature and can not escape from his environment." - Sir Albert Howard
Ignore that little bit of wisdom at your own peril.
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nigelj at 05:40 AM on 27 February 2018Impact of climate change on health is ‘the major threat of 21st century’
The insidious things about the climate issue is its relationship to global inequality. Vox has an article comparing heatwaves against the effects of reduced cold periods. On balance problems of heatwaves appear greater, however another point is heatwaves are going to be most deadly in tropical and sub tropical countries which tend to be poor countries (India, much of Africa etc) so cant afford technology fixes. Of course there are exceptions like Australia that are high income.
India is unlikely to have much in the way of AI automated farming for a long time, because it lacks the financial resources. The same problem applies to increased diseases in that they seem more of a problem in tropical climates and poor countries. Denge fever is unlikely to affect Europe unless it warms drastically is it? So climate change is exacerbating global inequality.
Of course various aspects of climate change are an absolute danger to wealthy countries, and drain their resources as well. This means they will be even less willing to help poor countries making the inequality / poverty problem even worse still, in a sort of feedback effect.
www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/17/16851398/cold-snap-heat-wave-deaths-human-health
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sparker at 05:30 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Gingerbaker - sea level will not necessarily stop rising in 300 years; what the study shows is that the greenhouse gas emissions we project to have occurred by the year 2100, even under the most optimistic scenarios, commit us to rising sea levels through the year 2300. The year 2300 is essentially arbitrary. Once we curtail anthropogenic emissions, the planet will eventually return to steady state, but some of the processes involved operate on timescales of thousands of years so it will take a while. Extra heat in the Earth system in 2300 will still go partially into melting ice, partially into warming the oceans, partially into warming the land and atmosphere, so there will still be melting and thermal expansion going on. The study also shows that the sooner we act to curtail our emissions, the less sea level rise we commit ourselves to by 2300 to a substantial degree - the study indicates that every 5 years we delay peaking our emissions commits us to a further 20cm sea level rise by 2300, and that right now we're looking at about a meter rise by 2300 if we sustain zero net greenhouse gas emissions until then, which is a really tough goal to hit. The study also shows that even if we manage to curtail emissions so as to hit our 2C warming cap, depending on our emissions pathways there's still a chance that sea level rise in 2300 could be much greater than a meter - up to 4+ meters under some scenarios.
The ice sheets will not be gone by 2300 but meltwater from them will certainly be a large contributing factor to sea level rise. If the ice sheets did somehow manage to completely melt, we'd be looking at nearly 70 meters of sea level rise from the added water alone, discounting thermal expansion.
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John Hartz at 05:19 AM on 27 February 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
For details about the impacts of sea level rise in Miami, check out this post by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS):
Tidal Flooding and Sea Level Rise in Miami-Dade County, Florida (2016)
The above article provides context for the 10-page fact sheet, Encroaching Tides in Miami-Dade County, Florida prepared by the UCS.
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