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nigelj at 05:06 AM on 25 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Tom13 @8
I have already read your link on leading questions. Thanks for more links, but I have read similar articles in the past anyway.
You have made a series of completely hollow accusations, with not one single piece of evidence, and nothing more than empty circular rhetoric and ad hominems.
You have not provided one single alleged leading question you think is somehow comparable to the principles and examples in your link. Not one.
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macquigg at 03:21 AM on 25 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Tom13 @8: How would you phrase the survey questions to be NOT biased in your opinion? Also, please stop the ad-hominem argument. Everyone here is "up to speed" on the issue at hand.
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Philippe Chantreau at 02:53 AM on 25 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
I looked at the surveys Nigelj mentioned and I do not find the leading questions that Tom13 is objecting to. Clicking on the survey link in the PEW aricle took me to a discussion of the survey and the questions do not rely on assumption that a fact is true, or the various other pitfalls described in Tom13's own link. Once again, just saying that something is bad does not make it so.
Examples include:
First on the list: "percent of adults who say _____ should be the more important priority for adressing America's energy supply." Answers can be "Alternative sources" or "Expand production of oil, coal and natural gas" or "Both" or "Don't know." This is completely different from the examples in Tom13's link of what constitutes a leading question.
Other surveys and questions were referenced and I compared with the descriptions in Tom13's link but did not really find them either to include the characteristics of bad design mentioned in said link. As far as I can tell, the PEW surveys' results linked by NigelJconstitute valid public opinion information.
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sauerj at 00:24 AM on 25 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
What does $15/mon equates to $X/ton-CO2?: Rough math: Avg Emission: 18ton/US-person/yr; so $15/(18*4/12)=$2.5/ton. Close enough? Compare to: CCL's $100/ton (after 10yr ramp) or CLC's starting $40/ton plus ~2%>%GDP ramp. CCLs: at $100/ton is ~$1/gal petro and $0.10/kwh for coal power. So, $2.5/ton is 2.5c/gal petro and $0.0025/kwh. ... $2.5/ton rate is negligible in correcting the 'market failure' of the existing FF price signal.
A more apropos survey question would be aimed at increasing household total costs (direct & indirect) to equal either 1) 'the generally accepted present value of future costs' or 2) 'current CCL or CLC proposed rates'. For example, $240/mon (@ $40/ton) or $600/mon (@ the full ramped $100/ton). The survey results would then be more forthcoming on public sentiment for the degree of incremental price signal required to truly drive market-based transitions with a high degree of economic force & efficacy.
The implications on the weak carbon tax policies of EU and Australia should also be considered in the big picture here, where some of the revenue was returned to the carbon polluters as hardship subsidies (EU) or used for pet projects by the government (both); the former making the tax ineffective, the latter making it regressive. This history shows how hard it is for the public to economically & politically "bite the bullet" in transiting away from status quo. We are enslaved by its 'present-day' short-term security; fooled by the lie of its incorrectly low 'non-future cost' pricing; and too weak & ignorant to want to pay the correct price now & let 'right' economics force us to change.
Of all macro policies (tax, cap-trd, cmnd-cntrl, subs), it is relatively obvious that carbon taxing is the most effective (least burdensome, most direct); read book linked below. But, contrary to the weak tax policies of EU & Au, we have to let the tax force non-sustainable processes to crater & die, and this means making the tax as politically durable as possible, so it doesn't 1) get repealed (like in Au), 2) doesn't subsidize the polluters and 3) has serious economic force to it. Policitical durability makes it stick for businesses: "We are in this for keeps; you better change if you want to remain profitable". And, the most politically durable plan is to return all of the revenue to the households, no pet political favors & projects! Let the market drive the best technologies and where the investments go. Or, at the most, do these side transitional efforts with side money; let them support themselves financially; like we would do today with today's tax revenue.
Read the book linked here and see if you can find anything wrong with it. It's about the truest, clearest thinking on how best to fix our present-day market failure of carbon energy pricing. islandpress.org/book/the-case-for-a-carbon-tax
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Tom13 at 23:41 PM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Nigelj
I gave you a link at #2 above, I have also included a few additional links below in order to assist you in getting up to speed on the subject of misleading surveys. Once you are up to speed, then you should be able to recognize the deficiencies in the quality of the results of the surveys you are currently defending.
surveyanyplace.com/docs/leading-question/
researchaccess.com/2013/07/leading-questions/
Moderator Response:[JH] Your posts suggest that you consider yourself to be well-versed about how survey questions should be formulated. If so, you should be able to explain why a particular survey question is "biased" without resorting to hand-waving and lecturing other commenters.
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nigelj at 16:44 PM on 24 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Michael Sweet, thank's for the article its interesting. I have read similar views in the past, and they are very convincing.
Basically everything I said is completely consistent with the article, so Im not sure of your point.
Like you say it comes down to economics in the end, so the nuclear debate is a bit of an arm chair debate. I don't think nuclear has something so special that governments in market economies like America should force it onto countries, so it comes down to costs and what generators want to do.
I was reading that it will take 20 years to fully decomission some old reactor in The UK. Just astonishing and sobering.
Ultimately nuclear is low emissions, but it is not truly renewable, so is out of step philosophically with the way things are slowly starting to go.
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nigelj at 16:21 PM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Heres the Pew Reseach. It say two thirds of Americans favour renewable energy as below. Its not the same as a carbon tax, (as I stated above) but it does show good support for renewable energy,and forms another part of the overall picture on public opinion on doing something about climate change.
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nigelj at 16:01 PM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Tom13 @4, and another thing. You now appear to say the following are leading statements. It's the only way I can interpret it:
"Look at the first Leading question "governments can reduce pollution that causes xxxx...."
"The second example "congress may consider at tax on ...xxxx... to 'help"..."
This is just really hard to comprehend. What on earth is a leading statement? Theres no such thing really.
They also dont lead anyone, because they are simply statements of reasonable fact as I already explained. Governments can most certainly reduce pollution, just look at the historical evidence In America going right back to Nixon in the 1960s with vehicle pollution. And its clear theres reasonable support by Congress for at least considering a carbon tax and dividend. The sentence said 'may' not that they absolutely would. So its reasonable not manipulative or exaggerated or "leading".
But above all theres no evidence of misleading questions or so called misleading statements.
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nigelj at 15:46 PM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Tom @13,
"Both polls are using leading questions and/or leading statements -"
No they arent. Please provide specific examples of your alleged leading questions with internet links back to the relevant page. Frankly I doubt it. I havent seen any.Im tired of people who post wild claims.
"You mentioned other surveys that have similar results."
The article above listed other surveys "This result is consistent with a survey from last year that also found Americans are willing to pay an average of $15 to $20 per month to combat climate change. Another recent Yale survey found that overall" The survey websites were linked in the words.
With the greatest of respect dont you actually read anything?! I gave you yet another survey, the pew research survey on climate change. Its old and doesnt ask the same question but shows majority support for renewable energy.
"Your last statement "The case of what the majority want is however pretty clear:" -Based on what - misleading surveys which dont reflect actual public opinion such as the two yale surveys cited in this article?"
We have a total of four surveys. You havent provided any evidence at all that they are flawed, just wild accusations and conflated claims. The point I was also making that maybe is too subtle for you is its unlikely all these survyes would have a genuine flaw. And none do anyway.
You also haven't supplied any evidence of any surveys finding anything different, and I mean proper recent surveys, not trash from some think tank. So you are asking is to believe your wild accusations, while not providing anything better. I dont buy it.
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Tom13 at 14:57 PM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Nigelj
Both polls are using leading questions and/or leading statements - a very common trick to influence the survey results.
FYI - I cited one of the many articles which discuss common tricks used in surveys to generate preferred responses, Its a common trick and an obvious trick. The point is that when surveys use such tricks/tactics, the survey results rarely reflect the actual sentiment of the public.
You mentioned other surveys that have similar results. Can you give us a citation or link to a survey that had similar results without the leading questions-
Your last statement "The case of what the majority want is however pretty clear:" -Based on what - misleading surveys which dont reflect actual public opinion such as the two yale surveys cited in this article?
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michael sweet at 11:05 AM on 24 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM:
Abbotts 2009 article about solar thermal is available here. Look for the button to download the PDF (it took me a little while to find it). It seemed to me that the article is out of date. Jacobson has done a more recent, in depth resource analysis and likes wind and pv solar better. I think in the end we will build whatever technologies are the most economic. The economics of many renewable energy technologies are shifting so rapidly that the favoured technologies in 10 years are likely to be different from the mix of technologies favoured now.
Nigelj,
Read Abbotts article about nuclear before you comment on its contents.
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nigelj at 09:58 AM on 24 October 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
High sulphur coal is definitely part of the problem. This is both Chinese coal, and particularly coal they import which has been low grade:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166516203000314
cen.acs.org/articles/95/i4/Peering-Chinas-thick-haze-air.html
www.wsj.com/articles/china-coal-ban-highly-polluting-types-banned-starting-in-2015-1410852013
Heres part of the problem relating to regulation and enforcement challenges.
cen.acs.org/articles/95/i4/Peering-Chinas-thick-haze-air.html
"Although the overall efforts to curb pollution are escalating, many facilities have tried to cut costs and evade strict emission limits by covertly shutting down their air pollution controls, often at night. There are no accurate estimates of how much these illicit emissions contributed to long-term pollution and the corresponding haze. However, websites of environmental regulation agencies at different levels of government indicate that virtually every pollution inspection by regulators in recent years detected dozens of such illegal emissions."
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nigelj at 09:34 AM on 24 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM @175
The best answers are sometimes a bit complex. A world with thousands of nuclear reactors would probably stretch supplies of uranium, and be high cost, but above all it lifts the chances of a serious accident very high. And nuclear accidents have little respect for borders.
But if a country has no other useful energy resources, nuclear would probably be appropriate. If its confined to just a few countries.
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nigelj at 08:36 AM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Tom13@2, I'm struggling to make sense of your comments. You have quoted statements, not questions.
The statements are also reasonable, correct, and evidence based, and regardless of that its up to the public to decide whether they agree.
The link on leading 'questions' is very good, but just doesn't appear relvant to anything you have said.
Please note regardless of your criticism of this particular study, several others listed in the article had a similar result, and Pew reserach has also found a majority want more done on renewable energy, although that reseach was more general and is older now. The case of what the majority want is however pretty clear
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NorrisM at 07:22 AM on 24 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
michael sweet @ 113
Just got around to reading the Derek Abbott paper today on the problems with nuclear power supplying the world's needs. Very sobering. I think one of the contributors to the Clack paper criticizing Jacobson made reference to some comment by Keynes regarding changing your views with new informatiion. I am not saying that I am turning 100% just reading one article but the sheer number of nuclear plants required even to deal with half of the world's needs (he works on a theoretical 100% just to point out the order of magnitude) is quite staggering. He is effectively suggesting 2,000 nuclear plants in the USA alone (for 50%). The same goes for the access to sufficient uranium without resorting to sea water. This article certainly is food for thought.
If I cannot find Abbott's 2010 paper on solar thermal technology I will ask for help. First want to try Google Scholar on my own. I was able to access this paper for free from the url.
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Tom13 at 06:34 AM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
This survey is a prime example of a typical biased survey. Look at the first Leading question "governments can reduce pollution that causes xxxx...."
The second example "congress may consider at tax on ...xxxx... to 'help"..."
the attached link points out some of the more common tricks used in advocacy surveys - Dont place too much credibilty on such a survey.
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nigelj at 05:49 AM on 24 October 2017Americans want a tax on carbon pollution, but how to get one?
Yes the huge silent majority are completely ignored, again. And yes politicians are worried about losing even a few votes. You also have the problem of campaign donations, and you cant tell me this doesn't influence policy.
And it all makes a mockery of democracy and the will of the people. Do the leaders have the moral right to ignore the will of a strong majority, especially when they are clearly taking a responsible position?
Having said that I think you are right. Lets be optimistic. Eventually the huge silent majority do tend to prevail, and politicians finally start thinking and taking notice, just looking at history and a good recent example is drug decriminilisation.
Carbon taxes have the virtue of practicality and the dividend does overcome ideological concerns about excessive taxation. There is a lot to be said for cap and trade in theory. It is a very elegant mechanism, but not so acceptable to Republicans, and IMO rather opaque and susceptible to manipulation by corporates and government alike. (Just look at evidence in Europe). Carbon tax and dividend appears more politically acceptable, transparent and practical. Of course you can also have both in parallel apllied to different problems.
But a dividend fully returned to the public would not necessarily go into buying electric cars and so on. IMO Ideally about half the divided should go to the consumer, and half to promoting renewable energy and electric car charging networks. But please just do something, anything.
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nigelj at 05:06 AM on 24 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Aleks @43, well biofuels are supposed to be carbon neutral from what I gather.
However I'm not much of a fan of biofuels. Mostly a waste of time and a dead end. I cant see the sense in planting and subsidising vast acres of maize, for minimal gains and just causing a whole raft of other problems, and displacing other crops.
The exception might be biofuels made from algae and processes like that
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ubrew12 at 03:48 AM on 24 October 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
I don't understand it either. Perhaps one factor is the Chinese coal is high in sulfur and other contaminants.
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aleks at 02:21 AM on 24 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
nigelj@37
"Stop burning fossil fuels". I completely agree if you mean not only "fossil" but all hydrocarbon containing fuels including biofuel. The problem is only in order of actions. It's impossible to stop burning before obtaining a sufficient amount of energy from pure sources (solar etc.).
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RedBaron at 18:05 PM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Yes Nigelj,
That's the exact same thing Alan Savory was discussing in his famous TedTalk that got everyone all stirred up. Here are proper peer reviewed scientific studies about it:
First the laymen version so people from different specialties can read up:
Multi-paddock grazing is superior to continuous grazing
And here is a free copy of the study:
And another independant verification:
Effect of grazing on soil-water content in semiarid rangelands of southeast Idaho
Keep in mind these guys are in pretty harsh conditions and are sequestering carbon right in the same range Dr. Jones 10 years case studies showed in Australia... Which in this case is 11 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr over standard grazing practices. (Which probably does sequester some carbon anyway)
Dr. Jones says 5-20 with a 32 outlier. Teague measured 11 which splits it right down the average. Unfortunately the Idaho study didn't measure soil carbon, but did measure soil moisture, which improves vegetative growth which means the carbon is most certainly increasing even over complete rest. And it shows desertification can be reversed like Alan Savory claims.
Now here is the issue I have with your comments and 1/2 the internet. If the livestock industry is causing all this ecological harm, (and it is) then surely we must blame the cow? Or is that exactly the opposite of reality. Cows are not harmful, it is only because they are fenced and penned improperly to their biological nature and ecosystem niche that turns a beneficial process into a harmful one. Raise them properly and they are part of a larger grassland biome that is a net sink for both CO2 and CH4. Raise them improperly and they become a net emissions source for both CO2 and CH4.
So we should not be talking about reducing meat production, we should be figuring out how to increase meat production...with the nuance that we raise it properly.
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nigelj at 17:14 PM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Red Baron @40, yes I understand all that, and it's a real problem. Its nuts subsidising basically uneconomic crops etc. But thanks for the references, looks interesting I will have a look.
I was meaning more something related to a video I was looking at on grasslands in Australia used for cattle grazing, and how simple changes in how this is done is improving soil quality specifically in reference to carbon.
But with so much criticism of meat consumption, I wonder how long it is before those lands end up as crop lands. Thats what I was meaning. Hopefully if its crop lands, its the right crops. Here's the video :
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RedBaron at 13:46 PM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Nigeli, again as I stated before, you can produce more food on grass than crops that get fed to animals. Your consternation is due to a false equivalence made by the exact same merchants of doubt obfuscating climate science for the exact same reasons too.
Grassland properly managed produces more yields per acre not less. It has both many many times more primary productivity, but even after a lower feed conversion rate still yields MORE per acre over corn and soy fed. Think about it. They try to state the opposite by comparing marginal land that can't even grow crops with prime arable land. Be sure that on the prime land the grass grows even thicker and taller still. It never gets beat by corn wheat or soy. It just doesn't.
The subsidies are designed to allow the far far far less efficient corn and soy to feed lot and ethanol plant production models to stand a chance even though they produce less primary productivity, less net productivity, less gross profit, less net profit, more gross polution, more net polution, less efficiency in every single category excepting labor, and there are even workarounds for that too. It is a lose lose lose for everyone and everything. There is NO winner for the industrial systems in effect now. They lead only to complete biosphere collapse and the end to worldwide human civilization. Even the people who think they are protecting themselves with this subsidized system are working off old flawed science. They just don't realize it yet.
Only 60 Years of Farming Left If Soil Degradation Continues
It's EXACTLY analogous to subsidizing coal so as to save coal jobs, when actually solar produces many times more better jobs without lung cancer and at less social cost than coal and no where near the environmental harm.
Solar Employs More People In U.S. Electricity Generation Than Oil, Coal And Gas Combined
Renewable Energy Is Creating Jobs 12 Times Faster Than the Rest of the Economy
Sometimes what we do is just based on tradition and not reality. And sometimes the neoluddites are simply obfuscating the same way they have with energy.
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nigelj at 12:52 PM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Just my two cents on this freedom of speech issue. We do have some restrictions imposed on university campuses in America. I read an article recently cant recall where, may be the Economist.com, but it made some excellent observations.
1) Its not the students. Polls show quite clearly university students are far more tolerant of letting people express extreme views even hate speech, than the general population
2) Its universities imposing rules to keep the angry minority of anti free speech aggrieved lobby groups happy. Its easists and expedient
For myself I think closing down free speech would be unfortunate. People should have a right to opinions even crazy ones, provided they dont incite violence or descend to swearing and blatant threats.
However free speech is never unlimited and is also somewhat dependent on location and even the America Constitutions recognises "time and place restrictions". although this would not extend to government control of what is said on campus. Free speech concepts were really designed to strictly limit ability of governments to censor etc, not give a free pass to anything. Website do moderate comments to reduce endless personal fueds etc cluttering things up.
So free speech is not a simple thing but I feel opinions should be a strong right as a general rule.
Coming to the books, I read Ian Plimmers sceptical book heaven and hell, a load of old nonsense. Yes its hard for most people to know who to believe and the devil is in the detail. But good detective work and sharp legal minds like Norris should spot some clues. Plimmers book depended on about 10 key graphs that looked mighty suspicious to me and different to the IPCC, and nowhere did his book give sources for these graphs. It listed sources for quotes, but not the graphs.
Detail matters, and you dont need any science to spot that sort of thing. I'm sorry, but the sceptical climate books I have read are riddled with cherrypicking, out of context material, missquoting people, and a dozen logical fallacy outrages, as well as bad science.
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nigelj at 12:28 PM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Norris M @171, just echoing other comments France went nuclear ages ago. I was wondering why myself,and I suspect part of the reason is it has limited coal and hydro potential, and given the devastation of two wars Franc eprobably didn't want to be reliant on Germany for coal. I'm guessing, but politics and self reliance splays a big part sometimes, and Trump is a good example of all that.
I wouldn't suggest for a minute France go back to wind power. They might as well stay with nuclear at least for the reasonable future.
I do think aesthetics are important, and I used to be an amateur oil painter, and work in a design / technical related profession, etc. However normally there are solutions that balance aesthetics and functionality, and its always a challenge like this with anything. Wind farms dont have to be everywhere, and I have already given you engineering studies to show only about 2% of land is needed in Germany and its hard to see why France would be that much different if it did want wind farms. And for many countries a huge part of their wind farms can be offshore, and practically invisible and the UK is doing this.
Obviously it would not be acceptable to put wind farms in scenic areas. Likewise you dont want huge solar arrays planted just anywhere, but they tend to suit desert climates anyway, or dry arid areas, which are usually away from human habitation or tourist areas, so it works out quite well. A huge solar programme called Desertec has been planned in preliminary form and is capable of powering all electricity in Europe. Its planned to be located in northern africa and spain in high sunlight desert areas away from human habited areas in the main, and uses direct current transmission grid into europe.
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nigelj at 12:04 PM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Red Baron @38,
I understand there are various soil carbon pathways, some involving soil based organisms both promoting rotting plant matter and ultimately consuming carbon containing material until an equilibrium is reached, and your root fungus mechanisms are another pathway. Is it possible to genetically engineer plants and / or organisms, so this so it all works better to increase soil carbon? Just a crazy thought, and rhetorical I dont expect an answer.
The plouged under article is interesting. It's sort of a comedy of bad ideas, corn biofuels arent a terribly convincing solution to me, subsidies tend to become embedded and hard to remove, and the insurance scheme while well intended has backfired in some ways.
I'm no "small government" ideologue, far from it, but its hard to see a case for tax payer funded crop insurance, especially in a large country like America. Its particularly hard to reconcile this with a country that promotes self reliance, capitalism and free markets.
These very large industrial farms with owners like pension funds etc are worrying. I recall reading the United Nations is questioning the efficiency and damage caused to soils, and promoting smaller farms with local owners.
The prairie grass issue is frustrating, because on the one hand I can see it maximises deep carbon rich soils, but on the other all the pressure is towards more crop lands in general, and less reliance on meat. But there may be a middle ground, where grasslands can be preserved for lower density cattle and beef and conservation areas, but less reliance is on intensive dairy farming. Dairy farming causes pretty intense environmental impacts. But farming is well ouside my area, just a few ideas.
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Bob Loblaw at 12:00 PM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM
France was already largely nuclear for electricity generation in the 1980s. My guess would be that they went heavily nuclear in the 1960s and 1970s in conjunction with early nculear development (bombs et al). Canada, the US, Britain, etc. all had nuclear power programs in that era, and I think France was just the one that bought in completely. I don't know what that means in terms of end-of-useful-life on their reactors and replacment plans. Canada's reactors from the '60s and '70s had a lot of early and costly maintenance that wasn't expected.
I do remember a big stink in 1983 about France's nuclear waste disposal program though - it consisted of encasing it in concrete or other materials, putting it on a ship, and dumping it the Marianas Trench area in the western Pacific. Deep ocean, geologic subduction zone - out of site, out of mind.
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NorrisM at 10:50 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
nigel @ 168
I think you will understand that until I posted what I did I had never heard of Michael Miersch. It is not normal to expect that the Director of an organization called the German Wildlife Foundation would be what you refer to as a "climate denier".
In any event, I have indicated that I would like to focus on the costs of wind and solar power as it impacts the US. As much as I would like to consider nuclear power I get the message that this is not the place and I hear what you all have said about costs.
But I still find it puzzling that two very forward looking countries in France and Sweden actually converted to nuclear power for up to 80% of their power generation many years ago. Whether it was, at the time, prohibitively expensive, I do not know. I do know that they have not had any "incidents" which have come to world attention.
But I do know that France is an absolutely beautiful country and I wonder what it will look like if it in fact does convert from nuclear power to wind and solar. The wind farms in Spain are in very desolate unpopulated areas that remind you of movies like The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (no pun intended). I say that having seen the windmills both near Cadiz on the Atlantic west coast and near Granada in Andalucia.
We have been to France a number of times. Two times we have stayed in the Loire Valley at the Hotel St. Michelle just beside one of the grandest of the chateaus called Chambord. Just on the other side of the hill is one of France's nuclear power stations tucked away in the hills. All we could hear from our hotel window in the evening was a low hum which was not at all offensive. I think my experiences at Chambord and my love of the French country are reasons why I ask why can we not go this direction. But, even though the arguments for nuclear power were first pointed out to me by James Hansen (thanks to a referency by one of my sisters) I will not pursue this on this website.
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NorrisM at 10:30 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw and MA Rodger
First rule of statutory interpretation is "turn the page". The modern one is "scroll down". I just spent 5 minutes trying to find both books which I guess I have left at my office. I then scrolled down and find that MA Rodger had the two books pictured. In my first reference to these books, when I found that Mark Steyn was one of the authors of the second book, I just about did not open it up. But as it turned out I found all of the others interesting. The other "starter" book was Michael Mann's book entitled "Climate Wars".
When I first started studying the early origins of Christianity and the arguments for and against the Christian god, I read books on both sides because I found that was the only way to "test ideas".
Unfortunately in the area of climate science the area is too complex for the average layman. Furthermore, the climate scientists themselves cannot even agree on the facts let alone what those facts tell us about the future.
I definitely plan to look at the book recommended.
Not to get back into the issue of freedom of speech but I just opened my email to find that Judith Curry's website today has a discussion of the very topic we were addressing. First time I saw this was about 15 minutes ago. From the blog, it would seem "both sides" seem to agree with her take on what is happening on university campuses.
Moderator Response:[DB] Blatant lie snipped.
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RedBaron at 10:00 AM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
36 nigelj,
Don't be too enamored by your science daily soil sink study. That study is just showing that the Roth C model that was developed to mathematically predict the movement of carbon in and out of soils is inadequate for the task. There are other models but if it is describing biomass decay then the model will not apply to the LCP which is not biomass carbon, it is derived by symbiosis from root exudates and never builds any plant tissues.
How can we tell? Because it was calculated by the biomass decay and biomass decay is not how soils are built. If biomass decay was how soils are built then the thickest richest soils in the world would be forest soils and especially forest soils like the amazon rain forest. They are some of the poorest in the world.
The best soils in the world are grassland soils and they have even less biomass, a lot less. So we know that biomass decay is not what builds those thick rich black soils. But I explained this to you before. Not sure why you couldn't spot it yourself. Mollic epipedon , Liquid carbon pathway
Yes we are on track to even less soil sequestration into the soil naturally than originally guessed. But it is NOT because soils can't absorb carbon, it's because all the primary soil sequestration biomes are plowed under worldwide and at minimum 50-80% of the remaining second best biomes for sequestering carbon are highly degraded by human activity and poor land management.
So in a way your study is right, but the conclusions being drawn from it are not correct at all.
This is why those carbon readings are so old and so low.
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Bob Loblaw at 08:06 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
MA Rodger:
Thanks. I agree that the second book is a terrible thing to waste time on, just from the list of authors.
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nigelj at 06:26 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM
I try to take people at face value and give them the benefit of the doubt. You seem just sincerely interested at times, but you make it hard when you persist with quoting cranks like Miersch who has no science degree, and has made no attempt to make a proper evidence based argument. His rhetoric is mostly inflammatory and sloganistic and thats no basis for anything. Some sceptics (not necessarily you) criticise Al Gore as being too emotive and histrionic, and hypocritically then support people like Miersh and Moncton who are demonstrably far more inflammatory than Gore. The denialists double standard and weak intellectual standard amuses me.
But I take you at face value that you hate the look of wind farms. I dont mind them and obviously beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
However its all so utterly academic, because offshore wind farms are now very competitive in price. The UK has just tendered a big wind farm project, and the offshore proposal came in very cost competitive with other options. So the wind farm aesthetic problem is at least likely to become a non problem, so its hard to see why you go on bringing the subject up.
You talk a lot about what is politically "realistic" and fair enough to a point. We also need aspirations as well, however on the politically realistic theme, how likely do you think it is that government would push nuclear because its more "aesthetically attractive" (perhaps) than wind power? I dont like the chances.
I'm neutral about nuclear, neither in favour or firmly against. It has its benefits and costs like anything and Im not going to get into that discussion. I grew up with various nuclear scares that made me sceptical, but have accepted you can't judge the issue entirely on that. I dont think Nuclear is the magic bullet we all thought back in the 1970s, but neither is it so flawed that it should be banned. IMO it's for individual countries to decide, but they better have a sober look at the full range of related issues. Storing the waste is a big problem, if you do some reading.
We have various possible mechanisms for deciding the make up of a renewable energy system, from top down government control of the exact make up, to a more market based approach where generators pick and choose the systems they prefer, provided they are low emissions (so wind, solar, hydro, nuclear etc) and this is not a bad approach to my mind, as it combines the power of market forces and innovation with the foundation environmental rules and boundaries coming from government. But in such a system nuclear is failing to compete on costs, and it's that simple. The clear example of all this is America.
Theres nothing to be done about costs of nuclear, because compromising safety regulation for nuclear would be insanity if you pardon my emotive term, but actually it just would be insanity.
Theres not much that can be done unless you feel the government should force nuclear power on society, which would be very big government indeed. Aesthetic appearance is unlikely to be a compelling case. Tell me if you think I'm wrong.
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nigelj at 05:31 AM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Aleks @33, yes water vapour is a greenhouse gas and associated with combustion of fossil fuels, but you again miss the point. It mostly probably falls mostly as rain, but the simple fact is its intrinsically associated with increasing fossil fuel emissions and this water vapor is thus increasing and is another warming agent. The message: Stop burning fossil fuels.
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nigelj at 05:19 AM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
Aleks @33, the university of bolder study is 5 years old now, and not representative of all studies. Uptake of natural sinks is difficult to determine and you need to look at all the research. Many other studies are more pessimistic especially more recent studies.
For example the article below discusses research finding ocean uptake of CO2 has actually slowed since 2000 due to increasing acidity.
The following article in Science Daily discusses research that finds soil sinks wont absorb nearly as much carbon over the next century as thought.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160922085737.htm
I could go on with more. Natural sinks have their limitations and carbon dioxide draw down is basically a very slow process over millenia. This emphasises the need to cut emissions at source. We can enhance natural sinks a bit, but the potential is limited mainly by the slow process of impementation and slow uptake of CO2.
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nigelj at 05:03 AM on 23 October 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
William @1, I agree. Maybe the reasons for slow uptake of basic pollution controls on sulphates etc are political. I dont think China has quite as rigorous set of environmental rules, and ability to sue in civil court like America from what I have read. People dont fit filter devices until there is some external pressure like this.
A lot of the big industrial companies are state owned enterprises very close to government, so a lot of crony capitalism and favours.
I dont have a specific source link, but this is impression from reading the Economist.com over the years. I recall reading something that theres a huge push now to clean up smog, because its at incredibly serious levels in their cities.
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Marco at 04:57 AM on 23 October 2017The F13 files, part 1 - the copy/paste job
Sadly, bad papers are common, and getting them retracted is almost impossible. Some journals (read: Editors) react quickly to concerns, others just don't care or are too busy.
Now, I note that in part 4 it is stated "He told us that they had checked the issue with "iThenticate", which didn't show high similarity. This means that they took F13 and their earlier book chapter and compared them to each other". I don't think the second sentence follows from the first. iThenticate checks all sources that it can access. Sometimes it does take some extra steps when a paper is already published to find the plagiarism, as it may primarily highlight the same paper as the source. You then need to actively deselect that source. So, maybe the EiC just didn't do that.
I also don't think Elsevier can be blamed so much, here. It looks like it is primarily the EiC who did everything he could to evade the issue. Having had my own contact with an Elsevier representative regarding >1000 fundamentally flawed papers (that's not a typo: more than 1000) in another field, I am somewhat sympathetic to their view that the Publisher should be very hesitant in meddling with the science that they publish. This is what the Editorial Boards are for. They may make more of an issue out of the plagiarism, so you should perhaps send the plagiarism overview to the Elsevier executive, and complain that the EiC does not take any action.
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MA Rodger at 04:53 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw @166,
The book NorrisM has mentioned as his intro to AGW was actually co-authored with Ted Parson.
The other was some nonsense edited by an Alan Moran. I say nonsense without more that spotting who is on the list of the contributing authors.
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Bob Loblaw at 04:29 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM;
You referred to a book by Dessler upthread. Would that be this one?
https://www.amazon.ca/Introduction-Modern-Climate-Change-Dessler/dp/1107480671
Note that Dessler is a climate scientist, not a journalist.
Out of curiosity, what was the other book?
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Evan at 04:20 AM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
aleks@33, from the paper you cited, there is the following cautionary note.
“What we are seeing is that the Earth continues to do the heavy lifting by taking up huge amounts of carbon dioxide, even while humans have done very little to reduce carbon emissions,” said Ballantyne. “How long this will continue, we don’t know.”
The fact that the earth is absorbing large quantities of our emissions is great, but it has its limits. The fact that the offset of current CO2 compared to preindustrial is 3 times higher now than in the late 1960's but the authors say the uptake has only doubled may already be a sign that the uptake is slowing down. This is the nature of systems as they become saturated.
We are digging up carbon and dumping it into the above-ground systems at a rate they are not accustomed to. The result will not be good. We need to start leaving the carbon below ground where it is, instead of trying to convince ourselves that either nature or our technology will find ways to put it back underground. Why not just leave it where it is?
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Evan at 04:10 AM on 23 October 2017SkS Analogy 10 - Bathtubs and Budgets
aleks@33 Yes, H2O is a primary combustion product together with CO2. For "clean fuels" such as CH4, twice as much H2O is emitted as CO2. But the excess H2O just falls out of the system as precipitation. So the only increase of the steady-state H2O concentration is through the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, and is not due to direct emission of H2O. That is, the only way that the steady-state concentration of H2O can increase is if there is an increase of temperature first. Direct emissions of H2O do nothing to inrease to increase steady-state concentrations of H2O.
Regarding uptake of CO2 doubling, I am not an expert in this area, but this number does not surprise me, and it does not make me feel better. Consider that for about 10,000 years during the Holocene that background CO2 concentrations were about 280 ppm. The fact that the concentration was stable means that sources and sinks were in equilibrium. Then comes the industrial revolution and we start to ramp up CO2. By the late 1960's the CO2 concetration had increased to about 325 ppm. This is an increase of 45 ppm above the steady-state value during the Holocene. The result is that the earth starts to absorb more CO2 to draw down the concentration and to try to restore balance. Now we are at about 405 ppm, or about 125 ppm above preindustrial, and about 3 times higher than the 45 ppm inbalance representative of the late 1960's. So it is not surprising that the rate of sequestration has doubled in the last 50 years, because the increase above preindustrial has tripled. Far from making us feel better, the fact that we are dumping such huge levels of carbon into the natural system represents a deviation from the steady-state balance we had for 10,000 years, and such a dramatic departure should make us worry about what effect this will have. Such as ocean acidification. We know some of the good benefits, but we may yet discover that there are other not-so-good effects lurking in the dark.
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william5331 at 04:04 AM on 23 October 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42
I'm puzzled by the Chinese air pollution from factories. The equipment to remove particulates and sulphur from the smoke stacks is off-the-shelf technology that America deployed decades ago to clean up her emissions. Why don't they just buy a few units, reverse engineer them and deploy them to all polluting factories. They even make money from the recovered sulphur. As for cars, they lead the world in electric cars and in installation of wind turbines and solar panels so vehicle pollution should sort itself out over time.
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NorrisM at 03:13 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
michael sweet and Bob Loblaw
Thanks, I will definitely take a look at it. This whole climate change issue started from me reading two books on the subject, one for and against after my two sisters got into an argument. The "for" book was that of Dessler (if I have not said that above).
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NorrisM at 03:08 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
MA Rodger @ 154
I am very impressed with your summary of that portion of the Harris podcast with Cass Sunstein. I should have qualified my comment to Eclectic that not the whole podcast is on freedom of speech. But it is very interesting on the other things discussed so it would not have been a waste of time.
We all agree that freedom of speech is very important in our society. Sunstein's point is that we have to tolerate wackos like Jones denying the Sandy Hook massacre to protect our freedoms because to do otherwise puts us on the slippery slope of quelling any dissent with the "popular view" which would be very dangerous. I think his summary of where the US Supreme Court has drawn the line is a good one and one with which I generally agree.
As to Miersch, I have since noted that at the time of my post I did not realize that he had strong views on climate change. Of course I am familiar with GWPF because it and Judith Curry's blog are the other two that I look at only occasionally. I have now searched on Wikipedia for the German Wildlife Foundation and it is not listed as a conservation society in Germany. I am somewhat disappointed in GWPF for not making it clear who Miersch is and is not. If the German Wildlife Society was in fact a true conservation society, leaving Miersch in the position as Director of Communications would say something as to their views but that does not seem to be the case.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:05 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Evidently it took me more than a minute to type my response @ 162....
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Bob Loblaw at 03:04 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM:
Spencer Weart's book is available electroncially for free at the link I provided. I think the on-line version is more up-to-date than any paper version you can buy. The on-line version certainly has lots of information to digest.
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michael sweet at 03:03 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Norrism:
Spencer Weart's book is a free web copy at the link that Bob Loblow provided at 158. No need to waste $100.
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NorrisM at 02:54 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw @ 156
Notwithstanding my comment in one of your replies on the models, I really do not want to engage this any further. I did gain a further understanding of the complexities of these models by reading the Chapter 9 of the IPCC 2013 assessment but I would prefer to deal with solutions. This moves more into an area where it is less technical and more political and economic which is easier for me to digest.
My sense is that we will be watching the fireworks on the ability of the models to assist in predicting future temperature increases if the EPA does proceed with the Red Team Blue Team. The July news item I cited suggests they are proceeding.
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NorrisM at 02:48 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Lobaw
I have read Dessler's book but I will take a look at Weart's on amazon. I have found that a lot of these books cost more than $100.
I agree with the moderator that we should move on.
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Bob Loblaw at 02:28 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Final comment for the moment:
I commend you in that you have shown a willingness to obtain and read a variety of sources of information on the subjects that have been raised in discussion here.
I think that you give credibility to some sources that I consider to be highly unreliable.
If you have not been pointed to it before, I suggest that you take the time to read Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming. It is written by an historian - someone with expertise in the history of science.
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Bob Loblaw at 02:22 AM on 23 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM:
The phrase "Business As Usual" has different meaning to different people. When the IPCC assigned that term to one of their scenarios back in the 1990s, they assumed (IIRC) continued growth as seen in the past. It was a label assigned to a particular CO2 concentration growth under certain assumptions. It was not an indicator of a particular sociological or economic system.
Your examples of China reflect that things have changed since the IPCC first started using that term. None of the IPCC RCP scenarios exactly fit what has happened - but they were not predictions, they were projections to cover a reasonable range of possibiliities to see what difference it woudl make. Look back at my description earlier regarding "sensitivity analysis".
With respect to nuclear power, my personal position is that safety of long-term disposal of nuclear waste has not been solved, and that total captial and operating costs have continually been much, much larger than originally claimed. Nuclear has historically enjoyed much government support, and it seems unlikely that it can stand on its own without it. I am not against it as a solution to reducing fossil fuels, but I am not in favour of it if it costs more than other alternatives. {But we try to avoid discussions of nuclear energy here, because it will rapidly wander into non-climate-related arguments between fiercely devoted proponents of the extreme positions.)
As for my feeling about what you call a "head in the sand approach" - it is not that you are part of that group, but that you appear to readily accept information from those sources with less skepticism than you seem to apply to well-founded science. This is called "confirmation bias", and it is something that every person has in varying degrees (and varying topics for one individual). With a legal background, surely you can appreciate the question of the credibility of the witness"?
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