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One Planet Only Forever at 01:34 AM on 16 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
Wol@6,
The Highest Impacting portion of the population is the real problem.
The 1 billion highest impacting people being the only ones on the planet would be rapidly creating problems for the future 1 billion while rapidly reducing the resources available for those future generations (a fundamantally unsustainable situation).
Red Baron correctly points out that increasing the carrying capacity is helpful. But reducing the impacts of human activity is also a way to increase the carrying capacity of the planet's environment. In fact, reduced burning of fossil fuels combined with farming changes could 'reverse a portion of the already created climate impacts' which would be a real Win-Win for future generations.
So I agree that it is frustrating that the elimination of the impacts of the highest impacting portion of the population is not being discussed (instead there are attempts to claim that simplistically thinking about reducing the population will lead to a solution).
Since the highest impacting portion of the population, the ones getting away with creating the most trouble, are also very wealthy and fortunate because of the competitive advantage they get away with, my personal preference is for that portion to change their minds rather than 'be neutralized/eliminated', with all of the wealthier and more fortunate being required to neutralize/eliminate the aspects of their ways of living that contribute to the climate problem.
And it is essential that 'all of those wealthier and more fortunate people' actually neutralize/eliminate the climate impacts of their ways of living in meaningful real time (no playing pretend that the hoped for total lifetime CO2 reduction of planting a tree today somehow immediately and certainly offsets impacts they immediately create, and especially no absurdities like claiming that keeping a portion of rain forest from being cut down grants them permission to create impacts - reestablishing already cut down rain forest is an offset, but only the benefit such an act actually produces in the year should count as a credit in that year).
The push by a portion of the higher impacting people for 'everyone to be freer to believe whatever they want and do whatever they please' can be very popular. And demands that people should only have to behave more responsibly if they choose/want to is not helpful (only the less fortunate have the excuse to behave less acceptably - and even their excuses are limited). Pushing for people to freer to think and do as they please without wise considerate responsbile self-restraint is clearly not a push for Liberty (Liberty includes the requirement for everyone to act with Wisdom and Self-restraint). It is a push for Anarchy, Chaos and Barbarism (and misguided Loyalty, Nationalism or Tribalism). It is a push against Civil Society, a push against advancing humanity, against improving/maintaining human civilization (with likes of Team Trump-Bannon-Sessions and ISIS being a couple of the many current day proofs of the damaging consequences of Temporary Regional Winning by people pushing for that type of Dogma to be believed contrary to what can be better understood).
That is the understanding regarding 'population problems' that I have learned through the past decades. And it isn't just due to the behaviours exposed by the climate change issue. There are many other examples of undeserving Winners who push to get away with things that are understandably contrary to the Sustainable Development of Humanity which is currently best presented by the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (which include action on climate change).
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shoyemore at 18:00 PM on 15 September 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #36
... an important question is whether the devastation caused by hurricanes Harveyand Irma will convince Donald Trump and his administration of the reality of climate change.
That is really naive. The expectation should be that Trump will double down on denial, because that is what deniers do. That is what he did after the G7 meetings where other world leaders made a concerted effort to persuade him out of denial.
As far as I can see, doubling down is exactly what deniers have been doing. And the Trump Administration has cocooned itself in a bubble where it is cut off from any scientific advice contrary to its ideological convictions, or fantasies if you prefer.
The only change will come when the electorate decides to rid itself of Trump and all his works.
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scaddenp at 10:03 AM on 15 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom13 seems very keen on cherry picks. "Interesting" way to evaluate data. That said, last few years have been tough for wind with plenty of hydro capacity and even more geothermal online since 2013. Dry conditions this year should improve things. However, increasing population and the switch to electric cars make it a pretty safe financial bet for the future.
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nigelj at 07:46 AM on 15 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
One Planet Only @9, yes part of the reason for Thatcher and Reagon at least having some environmental sense was public demand, and the visible problems of environmental issues. Their economic policy mischief was easier to conceal behind emotive claims, and the complexity and subtle nature of various policies hard for the public to untangle, and hidden mechanisms buried in legislation that promote a certain agenda!
But Thatcher was also in favour of environmental regulation due to her chemistry background and general belief in global warming, although she has some ulterior motives like promoting nuclear energy.
But sadly more recent neoliberal leaning or so called Washington consensus governments have often turned against environmental regulations. The Republican Party certainly has although their position is more one of conservatism, rather than neoliberalism. These things intersect, but are not one and the same.
The interesting thing from my point of view is the economics profession promote free markets, but with some exceptions. They accept regulation of markets is required on environmental matters. This is the proper position, that balances both, but politicians have warped views of economic theory and go in other directions as it suits.
I agree Americas environmental legislation has been patchy and self protectionist, but top marks to Reagon and Nixon for at least trying and recognising that not all government laws are bad things. Its really Bush and Trump that have taken things right backwards towards a weakening of standards, and towards protectionism / insularity. As you say Clinton was half hearted about the whole thing, and lacked an understanding that economic growth and free markets did not mean you should weaken environmental standards.
Unfortunately any time people point out inconvenient truths, or the value of some aspect of globalisation and international agreement and standards, people pull out the boogie man of one world government, or communism, or invasions of immigrants, or some other scare tactic based on emotion. Brexit was indeed a good example of this. It makes it hard to have an intelligent discussion and work out sensible policy.
However as you say global agreements can also be captured and made by the wrong people with narrow interests. Its all so complex.
It's difficult also because I for one am a believer in national sovereignty to some extent. I believe sovereignty and international agreements and globalisation, and its a balancing act between the two.
Agree about international standards manipulated in those ways. You do sometimes get international agreements with laws set at the lowest common denominator, not just in engineering but labour laws, envionmental laws. Free trade agreements sometimes do this. It's very hard having international standards that work for everyone, but I think international standards are an inevitability. Its always possible to help the losers from processes of adopting unified global standards, for example removing tariffs is dislocating for come people, but society and government can help the people hurt.
Unfortunately the media get captured by noisy and often extreme lobby groups, especially on the right of politics you get a lot of scaremongering these days, inflammatory claims etc. However this often doesn't even represent the true picture even within the commercial sector, for example witness how many companies are not impressed with Trumps inflammatory rhetoric and various policies.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:12 AM on 15 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom13,
Extracting and burning up non-renewable buried ancient hydrocarbons will undeniably become 'less possible'. As the easier to obtain resource is burned up future attempts to continue the activity become less viable.
Even today it is not possibe for everyone to 'advance to the level of burning benefited from by the more fortunate portion of humanity'. And massive vicious wars are waged between powers trying to be the 'biggest winners of that understandably unsustainable and damaging activity'
In addition to the reality the unsustainability of already very fortunate people trying to benefit more from burning fossil fuels, there is the undeiable matter of the impacts created. These impacts are suffered by people who do not recieve significant benefits (populations that suffer current day climate change impacts and the future generations).
Before talking about the comparable costs of different sources of energy, it is necessary to first ensure that the more damaging and ultimately unsustainable options are eliminated from the set of "Acceptable Alternatives". The marketplace does not 'naturally' do that. That is why responsible regulation is required, external constraints imposed by Leaders in business and government who are "... moved by rational consideration of distant motives" (as major writer regarding the pursuit of Liberty, John Stuart Mill, would say).
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nigelj at 06:56 AM on 15 September 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Natural Cycles
Very good video, but it missed cosmic rays which sceptics claim are a factor in global warming. But the trend in these over recent decades should have been causing a cooling, according to a SkS article:
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nigelj at 06:27 AM on 15 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom13@11, correction to my comment above, NZ Wind Farms has had several years of losses and is well known as a troubled company. You have picked the worst example. You cannot make an argument on one example.
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nigelj at 06:19 AM on 15 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom13@11
"Are wind farms in NZ really making money?I pulled up the the audited financial statements for NZ windfarms limitedInception to date loss of $46m as of june 2017."
Its absurd to quote one wind farm making a loss for one year as if this means anything, or that the sector is unprofitable. NZ Wind Farms are only one wind farm at Te Rere, and far from the largest. NZ has approx. 20 wind farms with various owners.
The following research from Deloitte finds wind power is economic in NZ.
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RedBaron at 03:50 AM on 15 September 2017New research, August 28 - September 3, 2017
Agreed William. Demo farms is the ticket.
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Lionel A at 03:06 AM on 15 September 2017New research, August 28 - September 3, 2017
#5. Is Nitrogen the Next Carbon?
One of the consequences of human added nitrate in soils is that nitrogen fixing plants cannot thrive in this enriched environment. This is especially true of leguminous plants. With a long time interest in photographing bees, especially bumble bees, I have noted a decided decline in the numbers of these animals in my local environment, Southern Hampshire, England this century. Bees of all species prefer leguminous plants e.g. clover for the pollen from these is richer in protein, much richer than many plants chosen for flower beds and borders.
Scientist and author Dave Goulson has explored this intensively by purchasing a run down farm in France and stripping off the over fertilised soil and then working several crops over years to further deplete the nitrates restoring clover and other similar species. This, and much more is described in his book 'A Sting in the Tail' of which more can be found here:
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:53 AM on 15 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
nigelj,
Thank you for the perspective on the popularity of Reagan and Thatcher.
I believe they took any environmental protection action due to public awareness demanding it. They pushed their economic agenda/dogma in spite of popular dislike of it, but reduced pollution that the public could undeniably see as personally damaging.
An example of how they limited their pollution prevention actions was the limited reduction of sulphur in diesel by the USA compared to what was done in Europe. And that reduction of sulphur was a late 1970s action to address the concerns identified in the 1972 Stockholm Conference.
The less aggressive US limits on sulphur in diesel are consistent with other 'protectionist' actions by the USA such as the reluctance to convert to metric. The actions make it difficult for non-USA items to compete with Made in America stuff, to the unsustainable benefit of existing USA industry. European diesel vehicles could not run well on the crappy US diesel (and before that the French put their steering wheels on the other side of vehicles than the British - and so did the USA, and the USA made-up a different spacing between train rails).
Examples of how they played popularity games to not have to behave better environmentally were the way they failed to properly raise awareness of the changes required to properly/responsibly address climate change impacts. The end of coal burning in the USA would have been (is) a significant loss of international competitive advantage. So the USA federal leadership did little to reduce the impacts. Responsible state and business leaders in the USA can been clearly seen to be the main reason there was less damaging Carbon impact related development in the USA.
I still remember seeing the speech by GW Bush when he announced that the USA would not ratify Kyoto. He proudly stated that the US citizens did not need to change how they lived. And before that, Clinton had not pushed to have Kyoto ratified, mainly because popular support had been drummed up against doing so and Clinton's go to reference phrase was the now understandably short-sighted "Its the Economy Stupid" (he had that reminder on a plaque on his White House desk rather than something like "Its About the Improvement of the Future for All of Humanity - Duh").
The bottom line is that the international understanding of the changes required to sustainably improve the future of humanity impose limits on what "Nations" can get away with doing. That was made clear in the 1972 Stcockholm Conference and getting clearer with improved awareness and understanding.
Undeniably that growing demand for responsible limits of what a "Nation" can get away with threatens the desires of the unsustainable and damaging schools of Dogmatic Beliefs behind what the Reagan/Thatcher leadership were promoting. Part of what they fight against is the generally understood expectation that Liberty is only deserved by people acting based on "... Wisdom and Voluntary Restraint" (an important part of the definition of Liberty in my 1988 Canadian Edition of "Webster's Encyclopedic Dictionary", with Libertarians being defined as wanting Liberty).
The boogie-man propaganda claims made against what is referred to as a One World Government (anti-Paris Agreement people often use this term) are part of the fight against having to be wise, fair, considerate and responsibly self-restraining.
The Brexit promoters included irrational propaganda arguments againsts having to comply with EU developed Standards because they are 'requirements of Others'. However, I am also a little leary of global standards when pursuers of maximum personal benefit have any say in what gets established.
In my work experience as a Structural Engineer I saw many examples of an International Standard (ISO) being stated to be a low standard with different nations allowed to establish higher standards if the they wished. That results in a competitive disadvantage for 'higher/better standards' and pressure within those nations to 'reduce their standards in order to be more competitive' or legal challenges claiming that requiring a higher standard is an unfair restriction on imported products or services (especially abuse/use of legal opportunities added to "Trade Agreements", especially when the legal mechanisms get put in to Trade Agreements by pursuers of maximum personal benefit).
Games of limiting the requirements to responsibly self-limit can easily be seen to be played in the current day 'negotiations' regarding action to globally responsibly limit climate change impacts. And the regional temporary popularity able to be drumed up in support of those damaging efforts is also 'understandable, and undeniably unacceptable'.
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Tom13 at 02:26 AM on 15 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
www.nzx.com/companies/NWF/announcements/306186
See the linke to the audited financial statements for the fiscal years ended June 30, 2017 and 2016
Scaddeenp -
Are wind farms in NZ really making money?
I pulled up the the audited financial statements for NZ windfarms limited
Inception to date loss of $46m as of june 2017.
Employee costs running at 40% of gross revenue, (not what would be considered efficient use of human resources)
Depreciable lives of 25-40 years when the real economic life is closer to 15-18 years, recorded impairment of almost half the cost.
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sailingfree at 01:57 AM on 15 September 2017IPCC global warming projections were wrong
Nice work! It would even more convincing if the record temperatures of 2014, 2015, and 2016 were plotted.
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knaugle at 23:20 PM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
Reagan actually said, "In this present crisis, Government is government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”He was referring to the stagnant inflationary economy of the Carter Era. That has since been expanded by conservatives to apply to every area of government influence, even those areas where only government can best do the job.
It does seem the current administration is even further raising the bar over just how much damage can be done by this philosophy of minimal government and rugged individualism.
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Swayseeker at 23:03 PM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
Well Ilike the graph on surface temperatures and for a long time I have been saying we should reduce surface temperatures by using evaporation.
https://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/class/ess55/lecture.2.thermodynamics.all.pdf
says:
"�Earth’s surface lost heat to the atmosphere when water is evaporated from oceans to the atmosphere. �The evaporation of the 1m of water causes Earth’s surface to lost 83 watts per square meter, almost half of the sunlight that reaches the surface. �Without the evaporation process, the global surface temperature would be 67°C instead of the actual 15°C."
I am trying to convince scientists and countries to implement the use of floating spray pumps to create evaporative fine mist cooling over the Gulf of Mexico and elsewher. To get convectional rain, solar air heaters can be used to heat the moist air. I am fairly certain it save insurance companies billions.Moderator Response:[JH] You are now skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition which is prohibited by the SkS Cooments Poiicy.
Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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scaddenp at 13:34 PM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
So Tom13, what in your opinion makes this a "good" example? It is one of less than 100 CSP plants worldwide, one of only 30 with 100MW. Did you look for the most troubled?
Are you looking for an answer to question on possibililities for economic carbon-free power? - or flailing about trying to find arguments to support a pre-determined position because frankly that is how your commentary reads so far.
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Tom13 at 12:58 PM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivanpah_Solar_Power_Facility
Ivanpah is a good example of solar power and the economics.
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scaddenp at 11:13 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
No subsidies on wind here (NZ) and yet windfarms are built and make money. Of course, no subsidies on fossil fuels either. Why not just stop the subsidies on all forms of generation completely and let the market see what is economical? Of course, it would be even better if appropriate mechanisms were in place to ensure the cost of externalities were covered. FF looks a lot less attractive then.
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ubrew12 at 11:03 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Wind power is nuclear power, btw. It's driven by a nuclear fusion reaction occuring 9 light-minutes sunward of your current position.
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ubrew12 at 10:48 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom13@4 said: "What happens to the economic viability of wind once the subsidies stop?" Go ahead and claim, right now, that nuclear power has never been subsidized. For example, are they, even today after trillions of dollars of public development spending, privately insured? I'm pro-nuclear, but come on: Nuclear is the poster-child for government spending. And fossils gets to stand 'on its own two feet' merely because they get to dump the consequences of their waste products on the heads of our children... free of charge. Put all that into your thinking, and wind starts looking pretty competitive.
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nigelj at 10:35 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom @13
"What happens to the economic viability of wind once the subsidies stop?"
Solar renewable energy is already economically viable without subsidies.
www.deutschebank.nl/nl/docs/Solar_-_2014_Outlook_Let_the_Second_Gold_Rush_Begin.pdf
Wind energy is close to economcially viable without subsidies as below. So theres no real problem.
However subsidies would still be useful to encourage these things.
You need to also appreciate many countries subsidise coal and nuclear. What happens when that stops?
You also need to appreciate these economic "comparisons" are only on market prices etc, and dont include the damaging affects of buring coal and the risks of nuclear energy (although I dont toally oppose nuclear energy).
The field is changing fast. Costs of renewable energy are dropping fast with or without subsidies. Its an amazing thing and I didn't expect it.
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Tom13 at 10:06 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Nigelj -
Yes wind power receives subsidies of tens of millions of pounds.
What happens to the economic viability of wind once the subsidies stop?
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nigelj at 09:44 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
Tom@13
Yes wind power receives subsidies of tens of millions of pounds. Henchley nuclear station is to be subsidised by 30 billion pounds as below from The Financial Times, paid for by consumers.
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Tom13 at 08:37 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
From the third paragraph of nigelj's link-
Ministers said the multimillion-pound pot of subsidies would generate clean power for 3.6m homes. Two windfarms – the Hornsea 2 project off the Yorkshire coast and the Moray offshore windfarm in Scotland – secured a guaranteed price for their power of £57.50 per megawatt hour (MWh) from the government. This is far below the £92.50 awarded to Hinkley last year.
Is it really that cost competitive if the government has to offer real cash subsidies?
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nigelj at 08:25 AM on 14 September 2017Video: The Path Post-Paris
The cost of offshore wind farms has dropped dramatically in the United Kingdom, and electricity from these is cheaper than the proposed Hinkley nuclear plant as below:
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nigelj at 07:54 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
Red Baron @49, I meant the ground issues are a side issue in the sense Tom is missing the big picture, namely that warmer temperatures are causing more floods.
Obviously you are right surfaces are critical to flood impacts, and roads, buildings and urbanisation can make flooding worse. I showed this anyway in my comment.
We should be preserving wetlands and using more permeable ashphalt etc. Trouble is this requires environmental rules the very things the Trump Adminsitration opposes. This whole thing has become a political problem sadly to say. Political and ideological.
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nigelj at 07:33 AM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
The philosophical roots of Thatcherism and Reagonism go back to M Friedman, F Hayek and AynRand, and glorify the individual and acquistive instincts, and oppose collectivism and ideas of society and collective responsibility and ownership. The philosophy is also suspicious of government regulation.The belief system is best seen in terms of economic history and anthropology, because its a reaction to various historical cycles and evolutionary processes, as follows.
Early human hunter gatherers were a sharing society, because it worked, but only because it was small groups in an abundant world. The development of farming 10,000 years ago lead ultimately to specialisation, complexity, individualism, capitalism and private ownership. This system reached its peak in the industrial revolution, and became very harsh and crashed in the 1920's leading to the great depression.
The depression lead to the mixed economy that combined capitalism and socialism to the extent of trade tariffs, public education, environmental laws, the welfare state, income support, etc, etc. This system worked but eventually stagnated in the 1980s and lead to Thatcherism and Reagonism and a return to individualism and free markets, deregulation, flat taxes, and glorification of markets as the singular measure of success.
This neoliberal philosophy was extreme, uncompromising and single minded. Oddly enough it did promote good environmental laws, but more recent governments have abandoned this like Trump and there has always been an emphasis that "less regulation is by principle better".
Capitalism and the class structure also crashed in Russia in 1919, and lead to communism. This in turn stagnated and fed into fears that lead to Reagonism.
The global financial crash has highlighted the huge weaknesses of neoliberalism, Thatcherism, Reagonism, deregulation, laissez faire capitalism, and excessive faith in markets. The whole thing has come undone and is destroying the planet, and causing high inequality etc. Yet at the same time free markets and private ownership generate economic power and innovation, and are good things, so we have a frustrating situation to resolve, and its not a simple thing.
Scandinavia has done a good job of reconciling competing realities and facts. They have done a nice job combining the best virtues of free markets, capitalism, and individualism and freedom, with things like public education, strong environmental laws, a supportive welfare state, the cooperative spirit, etc. They avoid ideological dogma and take a practial approach that is very child focussed. This is a very successfull, practical, balanced version of the mixed economy. It shows in their good economic and social statistics and quality of life. The proof is in the results.
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Ken in Oz at 07:15 AM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
If "the job" is to prevent climate responsibility being an essential component of decision making by those in positions of trust and responsibility then Trump does look like he is picking the right people.
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RedBaron at 05:50 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
John,
I read as much as I could stand until I got so angry my computer screen was in danger of being thrown across the room. Don't get me wrong. I see nothing but good intentions. Unfortunately good intentions doomed to fail.
Expect little to no help from GLO. Even while understanding the current paradigm is failing, they are still stuck in it. Lots and lots of great information there. Don't get me wrong. What is lacking is a good understanding of the whole system and how it all connects.
For example. Take the cow. The way it is raised now it is inefficient and degrading the environment. Completely unsustainable. That includes all sorts of mismanagement. Over gazing, under grazing, feedlots, confinement dairies. Almost every way out there to raise a cow is wrong. Even some cultures thousands of years old have been doing it wrong thousands of years. Feedlots only took what was bad and made it worse!
So it is easy to see why some might conclude that lowering meat production is required to get to a sustainable solution. The models Chapter 6 | Scenarios of Change clearly show this paradigm and if that wasn't spelled out well enough there, the executive summary specifically does.
And yet that conclusion is completely wrong. It's a wicked problem of complexity, so I get it. It might be nearly impossible for any comity to get right. But it is doomed to failure as presented.
We actually have to increase animal production while reducing grain production by 50% - 75% +/-. Those animals need integrated back on the farm, then managed properly as an important proxy for wild ecosystem function. Scale is not a problem. Animals scale better than almost anything in agriculture. But the imbalance right now is too many crops and not enough animals on the farm displaying their evolved purpose to the artificial agricultural ecosystem.
"The pigs do that work (by rooting in the forest and that creates the temporary disturbance on the ground that allows germination for higher successional species.) And so it allows for those pigs to be not just pork chops, bacon, and that. But now they then become co-conspirators and fellow laborers in this great land healing ministry ... by fully respecting the pigness of the pig." Joel Salatin
“As the small trickle of results grows into an avalanche — as is now happening overseas — it will soon be realized that the animal is our farming partner and no practice and no knowledge which ignores this fact will contribute anything to human welfare or indeed will have any chance either of usefulness or of survival.” Sir Albert Howard (emphasis mine)
“The number one public enemy is the cow. But the number one tool that can save mankind is the cow. We need every cow we can get back out on the range. It is almost criminal to have them in feedlots which are inhumane, antisocial, and environmentally and economically unsound.” Allan Savory
Once you commit to a sustainable system, then two things happen. The animal tools that were the greatest destruction become the tools for greatest repair. The whole reason for Biofuels as currently being produced ends.
Biofuels ONLY makes sense in a system where they are burned and then CO2 extrated and sequestered from the stack in a CCS system. But the technology to do that doesn't exist.
The LCP does exist and has been well vetted at scale in the field for decades.[1] Foolish to follow a failed path when the sucessful path is already known. Throwing good money after bad because the investors spent so much on the failed "king corn" paradigm they refuse to awknowledge their loss. I am sorry they spent trillions on it. But time to admit it's lipstick on a pig.
This dichotomy is probably best described here:
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John Hartz at 02:47 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
RedBaron: Thank you for filling us in re the former prairie biome of the greater Houston metyro area — most informative and interesting.
Swtiching gears, do you plan to read the new report, The Global Land Outlook, just issued by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)?
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:07 AM on 14 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
What the likes of the US Republicans/British Brexiters are doing today can be understood to be a continuation of what the likes of Reagan and Thatcher pushed for. Naomi Klein has fairly clearly presented it as the challenge that reality is imposing on the damaging desires/delusions of the likes of Unite the Right groups such as the Brexit Pushing Parties and current day US Republican Party.
And the 1987 UN commissioned report "Our Common Future" presented a succinct description of what the likes of Unite the Right groups are trying to continue to get away with anywhere they can, any way they can. That report includes the following in its Overview "From One Earth to One World" as a conclusion of the section on "The Interlocking Crises".
"25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management."The report could be seen as a rebuke of the Reagan/Thatcher economic push. And the waning popular support for the perceptions that 'those types of wealthy winners are deserving because they have Won something' has led to Unite the Right which pursues Loyal support from less tolerant people by offering to give them 'what They want in ways that will not cost the greedy very much' (collective loyal action by the greedier alone is no longer enough to Win)
And the Reagan/Thatcher push of the 1980s can be seen as a response to the 1972 UN Stockholm Conference report that pointed out the damaging unsustainability of development in many of the directions that the likes of the USA and Britain had been developing along. It was an attempt to prolong the ability of people to get undeservingly rich by continuing to get away with what was understandably unsustainable/unacceptable activity as much as possible for as long as possible.
And since the 1972 Stockholm Conference the international community has continued expanding awareness and improving the understanding of what is required for the future of humanity. "Our Common Future" led to many initiatives including the series of Global Assessment Reports on risks and risk management. All that effort is captured in the current best understanding of the required objectives/changes presented in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
The SDG objectives/changes all need to be pursued/acheived concurrently, including action to reduce climate change impacts. And the climate change impacts include the need for 'those who are more fortunate because of getting away with benefiting from unacceptable impacts' to fairly compensate those who are already negatively affected and help those less fortunate sustainably become more fortunate (not develop along the direction that the likes of the USA and Britain did, a direction that is damaging and ultimately requires correction).
All of that robustly developed and established understanding, hard to reasonably argue against, can be seen to be contrary to the variety of interests of the people that Unite the Right encourages/appeals to in the hopes of continuing to Win as long as they can get away with.
The book Al Gore wrote after "An Inconvenient Truth" was "The Assault on Reason". He had Good Reason to write that.
Poor Excuses for Bad Behaviour will likely always find a very receptive audience. It is easier to sell Poor Excuses for actions some people can see a personal benefit from. It is much harder to convince already fortunate people that they have to give up personally beneficial pursuits that they might be able to get away with, and also help others less fortunate without any expectation of getting any personal benefit in return (being genuinely charitable/helpful).
The success of deliberately misleading marketing is the real challenge to be overcome, and not just regarding climate science. The future of humanity depends upon Good Reason Winning Over Poor Excuses.
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RedBaron at 00:53 AM on 14 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
@ John 44,
You said, "I also suspect that a goodly portion of the greater Houston metro area was also wetlands prior to being "developed.""
In actuality this was a very famous portion of prairie biome, well known as the most southernly portion of the once great tallgrass prairie of North America. The average grass in Houston was at one time well over the height of a man and in areas approaching 10-12 feet tall! In those days the soil would have infiltrated and held at minimum 25 times more water by volume and by rate than its current degraded state.
Read up on this most southern spur of the great tallgrass prairie (called the blackland prairies ecoregion in Texas) here:
Native Prairies association of Texas
As pointed out earlier here, one particular grass (Eastern Gamagrass) evolved here had a special root system capable of penetrating the clay and opening up channels. This is not some random generic "vegetation" it was a very highly evolved carbon pump into the soil that had a very strong symbiotic relationship with a whole host of other species, not the least of which was AMF.
Nigelj #43,
You said, "The ground surfaces are just a side issue, to the weather / climate processes." Not at all. In fact the exact opposite on both counts. The soil is the PRIMARY factor actually for watershed function and at least equal with regards to the Carbon cycle.
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John Hartz at 00:27 AM on 14 September 2017Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Norris M @247: You state,
My take on all of this is that no one is denying that there clearly was a MWP which, given the droughts in the SW US and the recent Chinese Academy of Sciences report on a MWP in China, suggests that this was probably prevalent in most of the Northern Hemisphere.
Your tentative conclusion about the MWP being prevelant in the Northen Hemisphere is not supported by the research documented in the following articles:
So-Called Medieval Warm Period Not So Warm After All by Michael D Lemonick, Climate Central, Oct 1, 2012
Study undercuts idea that 'Medieval Warm Period' was global: Vikings may not have colonized Greenland in nice weather, Science Daily, Dec 4, 2015
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NorrisM at 15:01 PM on 13 September 2017Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Moderator
Thanks. I have read the above material and watched the video. I think the best summary of things is the National Academy of Sciences 2006 report which you have quoted above.
I think the full paragraph makes it clear that although they generally agree with the Mann representation they clearly disagree with some of his statements regarding the 1990's being the hottest on record:
"Based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this newer supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the preceding millennium. The substantial uncertainties currently present in the quantitative assessment of large-scale surface temperature changes prior to about A.D. 1600 lower our confidence in this conclusion compared to the high level of confidence we place in the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century warming. Even less confidence can be placed in the original conclusions by Mann et al. (1999) that “the 1990s are likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in at least a millennium” because the uncertainties inherent in temperature reconstructions for individual years and decades are larger than those for longer time periods and because not all of the available proxies record temperature information on such short timescales."
My take on all of this is that no one is denying that there clearly was a MWP which, given the droughts in the SW US and the recent Chinese Academy of Sciences report on a MWP in China, suggests that this was probably prevalent in most of the Northern Hemisphere. It was not caused by humans so there had to be natural explanations for it. Those explanations have been provided which suggests higher solar activity and less volcanoes. But the evidence seems to be clear that these temperatures did not reach today's world levels. The "global temperature" at that time did not reach what we are experiencing globally today. At this same time, the sea levels did rise and drop matching the MWP and Little Ice Age but again not as significant as the sea level rise in the last 100 years or so. I also note that the Michael Mann 2008 EIV proxy data temperatures (which I believe he thinks are the best) no longer look like a hockey stick.
But the bottom line is that without some other explanation, given the significant increases in CO2 since the beginning of the Industrial era, most of the present temperature rise since 1800 has to be attributed to man.
Interesting, in my summary, I think you would have agreed with my analysis until I said 1800 and not 1950 as per the IPCC. Perhaps there is some other explanation for that part of the temperature rise that occurred from 1900 to 1950?
I am happy to move on to considering what the predictions are for the future and how best to deal with those predictions and the consequences.
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Rovinpiper at 14:39 PM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
I did hear a piece on NPR which discussed changing development laws in Texas to prevent people from simply routing runoff directly into the bayous causing flooding downstream. It suggested that artificial retention ponds are not a common thing in Texas. This is surprising to me. I thought there was some federal law requiring that wetlands destroyed by development be replaced with created wetlands.
With development of course, one must consider not only blacktop and concrete, but also rooves of various materials. With the exception of green rooves, rooves are impermeable by design.
Also, note that the weight of pavement and other construction materials and the machinery and activity of construction will result in compaction of the underlying soil. This will not promote water infiltration. Also, if you have a permeable pavement there will still be a slowing of infiltration at the interface between that material and the soil. Anytime you have a difference in texture between layers in a soil it slows infiltration. It doesn't matter whether that is a finer soil layer over a coarser one, or vice versa.
The bottom line is that more development will result in more runoff. -
John Hartz at 12:12 PM on 13 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
Recommended supplemental reading:
Irma Won’t “Wake Up” Climate Change-Denying Republicans. Their Whole Ideology Is On The Line. by Naomi Klein, The Intercept, Sep 11, 2017
Can Irma finally blow through the GOP’s climate change denial? by Sarah Posner, the Plum Line, Washington Post, Sep 11, 2017
No, Trump Still Hasn't Changed His Mind About Climate Change After Hurricane Irma and Harvey by Alana Abramson, Time Magazine, Sep 11, 2017
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Digby Scorgie at 11:15 AM on 13 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
All right, I won't be too hard on the vegetable farmers!
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nigelj at 09:29 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
John Hartz, I should have known that song was hers. I was lucky enough to see Joni Mitchell play live many years ago, and she is an appealing, astonishing, multi talented musician. I have a couple of cd's somewhere, court and spark, and heijra, and blue. I have heard she is very unwell these days, unfortunately, but the music is timeless.
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John Hartz at 09:19 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
nigelj: I also suspect that a goodly portion of the greater Houston metro area was also wetlands prior to being "developed."
The song was "Big Yellow Taxi" written and sung by Joni Mitchell. The frst two stanzas:
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
With a pink hotel *, a boutique
And a swinging hot spotDon't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got
Till it's gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot*The Pink Hotel in this song is most likely the Royal Hawaiian in Honolulu.
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nigelj at 08:48 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
John Hartz @42, I agree vegetation slows down impacts of rainfall. Topsoils and upper levels of clays that are dry, would also absorb a lot of moisture and act as a cushion. I was just intrigued on the permeability comparison just of the materials, in terms of water ultimately getting down to the water table.
What was that song "they paved papadise and put up a parking lot"? Bob Dylan, or Joni Mitchell I think one or the other.
And regardless of all this the main point I took from the article was higher temperatures do cause more flood events. The ground surfaces are just a side issue, to the weather / climate processes.
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nigelj at 08:21 AM on 13 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
The Republicans have indeed left an unfortunate legacy of issues, as Ubrew notes. Reagon was responsible for high spending and trillions in debt, (as in link below) and for no good reason. Times were good, no massive economic crash, he never needed to borrow so much money and its just astonishing and contradictory, coming from so called fiscal conservatives
mises.org/library/sad-legacy-ronald-reagan-0
Americas success in the past has been ensuring institutions are independent, (like the EPA) with mandates under law and leaders who are as impartial as possible and non political where possible. I hugely admire this even if it would frustrate me if I was leader, because you can see the value in this system. This is now being systematically wrecked, with undermining of institutions independence, and appointing anti science hacks and unqualified political partisans to positions of power.
It will undermine a sustainable future, in the name of populism and short term profits. The American economy is growing at a reasonably good rate, over the last 4 years approx. and is near maximum capacity and doesn't even need an artificiant boost anymore or the sort of restructuring being attempted to trim agencies of the state, or tax cuts etc.
The current white house leadership is economically, socially, environmentally and scientifically illiterate. Thats where the evidence points, overwhelmingly.
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ubrew12 at 07:16 AM on 13 September 2017Trump promised to hire the best people. He keeps hiring the worst. Nasa is next
"government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem" Ever since Reagan made that extremely popular statement, Republicans have been voted into office to, essentially, not do their job. This has piled up a hornet's nest of unresolved issues: the monumental public debt/GDP (now at a level not seen since WWII and with nothing to show for it), cruelly disfunctional healthcare, failing infrastructure, unresolved immigration issues, wealth inequality to make the Gilded Age jealous, 'Axis-of-Evil' members on the cusp of nuclear-ICBM capability, an opiate crisis erupting in the heartland, a broken education system, and now climate denial as policy, in the face of 50 years of scientific certainty. The GOP has been advertising for 30 years now that if you just hire them to do the job, they will prove to you that the job cannot be done. And America has hired them. And they have proven what they set out to prove, so I guess it was money well spent. Bridenstine is a disgusting choice for NASA, but no longer a surprising choice. By the time he's done with his 'work', everyone in America is going to know that only the private sector can reliably take us to space. Apollo must just be more of that 'fake-news'.
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John Hartz at 07:15 AM on 13 September 2017Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
More articles of note:
Four little discussed ways that climate change could make hurricanes even worse by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Sep 11, 2017
How global warming could push hurricanes to new regions by Bob Berwyn, Pacific Standard, Sep 11, 2017
'I Don't Expect The Season To Be Done': A Hurricane Expert On What's Still To Come by Kate Wheeling, Pacific Standard, Sep 12, 2017
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John Hartz at 07:07 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
nigelj: The permeability index of Houston's clay soil versus concrete and asphalt is only one dimension of the matter at hand. Vegitation grows in clay soils and its presence will increase the soil's permeability and slow the rate of water flow. Like most US metro areas, Houston has "paved over paradise".
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nigelj at 06:34 AM on 13 September 2017Denying Hurricane Harvey’s climate links only worsens future suffering
Permeability index of soil versus concrete and asphalt.
No answer from Tom.
Im not an engineer but this got me intrigued. The Houston clays have very low permeability,and the numbers are on the internet.
The trouble is concrete and asphalt measures it using a different scale and its a headache comparing them. Also the permeability of concrete and asphalt varies from essentially zero to quite high permeability for modern environmentally friendly products introduced in the late 1980s. Its hard to know what types of concrete and asphalt Houston has used over the years, but I would hazard a guess the older materials have essentially zero permeability and are the dominant surfaces.
I think the article was therefore correct to say concrete and asphalt would increase flooding risk, but perhaps not by huge ammounts given the very low permeability of the clays.
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william5331 at 05:53 AM on 13 September 2017New research, August 28 - September 3, 2017
Is Nitrogen the new Carbon. Probably, but it doesn't have to be so. Read David R Mongomery's book Growing a Revolution. Not only could we stop this trend but the farmers could be the hero's of the age while actually increasing their profits. What is needed is demonstration farms spread far and wide. Farmers are incredible conservative (dad did it and so did grandad) so only an example is likely to sway them. Research at an agricultural institution won't hack it. What dean of agriculture will allow research on his patch which will cause his main contributors to stop their funding . (fertilizer manufacturers for instance)
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sunshine confetti bomb at 17:28 PM on 12 September 2017It's cosmic rays
"However, the hypothesis is also disproven just by examining the data."
how is Mr. Svensmark's cloud driven climate change a hypothesis when he tested, concluded with results to back his theory...
Moderator Response:[JH] Please read the Advanced version of the rebuttal article.
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RedBaron at 16:12 PM on 12 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
Digby Scorgie,
Surprisingly, vegetable farming in both a regenerative and scale-able production model is about one of the hardest of all. In fact it is the subject of my own personal research and development. But it is only about 1% of land.[1] The vast majority of ag land is rangeland and forest, followed by the commodity grains, wheat, rice, corn.
I could probably show them some tricks, but it is the gap as of yet not thoroughly vetted. Gives me something to do, but I never try to fool myself as to scale. Rather insignificant. Of course in my mind 1% of something as big as worldwide agriculture is still plenty important enough for me.
For climate scientists though, the main thing to understand is we know quite well how to use regenerative ag in commodity grains and rangeland. It is enough.
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Digby Scorgie at 14:59 PM on 12 September 201730 Climate Lessons I Learned in 30 Years
RedBaron @19
I was thinking of the full set of the better farming methods, not just of SRI. For example, there is a vegetable farm a kilometre away from where I live; at the moment it is just a vast stretch of bare ground — so much for cover crops. The message is not getting through to enough of the world's farmers.
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wili at 14:37 PM on 12 September 2017New research, August 28 - September 3, 2017
From #3 above: "...Models project that this expansion will continue throughout the twenty-first century, whatever the scenario..."
Well...that sounds kinda...bad...
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