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Comments 18401 to 18450:
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airscottdenning at 02:36 AM on 23 August 2017Solar eclipse: Why the sun is not responsible for recent climate change
Regarding #3: Sorry, here's the link to the classic paper on tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling from 1967.
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airscottdenning at 02:34 AM on 23 August 2017Solar eclipse: Why the sun is not responsible for recent climate change
Regarding #3, the reason the stratosphere cools with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is simply that it emits more IR radiation. Since there's little overlying gas to radiate back down, the result is a net cooling. This is extremely well understood, and was predicted by Manabe and Weatherald 50 years ago: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281967%29024%3C0241%3ATEOTAW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
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chrisd3 at 23:17 PM on 22 August 2017Solar eclipse: Why the sun is not responsible for recent climate change
the upper atmosphere would cool as greenhouse gases trapped heat and prevented it from escaping the troposphere
Is this correct? It makes intuituitve sense, but it's been my understanding that the full explanation is far more complex, and that this is not the primary contributor to the cooling of the stratosphere. If I recall correctly, Gavin Schmidt got caught by this many years ago in RealClimate, and had to rewrite big chunks of a post.
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Swayseeker at 22:20 PM on 22 August 2017Solar eclipse: Why the sun is not responsible for recent climate change
Well if there are more pollutants it seems TSI is going to be less (more solar energy blocking). If greenhouse gases are greater then the atmosphere would warm more, so "relatively cooler ground and warmer air" would sound reasonable although all of it is heating up. As always, if one can form low clouds in low latitudes it helps. Idea: People are becoming more concerned about where to put old solar panels. If you put them in greenhouses (to absorb solar energy) in the deserts and pump seawater into the greenhouses you would do better than having a sand bottom in the greenhouse because sand reflects energy back out (is light coloured) of greenhouses. With other solar panels, coat them to make mirrors out of them and reflect solar energy into the greenhouses. Of put dark solar panels in shallow pools of seawater and reflect solar energy into the pools with the mirror solar panels to cause evaporation and more clouds and rain.
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MA Rodger at 22:10 PM on 22 August 2017CERN CLOUD experiment proved cosmic rays are causing global warming
Mick Stupp @19,
That graph appears here having been "adapted by Dr. Tim Patterson.from: Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen, Science, 254, 698-700, 1991." Thus the original is Fig 2 of that paper. The level of nonsense and error engendered by that particular exercise in curve-fitting is set out in this SkS post.
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BBHY at 17:34 PM on 22 August 2017Solar eclipse: Why the sun is not responsible for recent climate change
Good info! Also:
Nighttime termperatures have risen faster than daytime temperatures. The sun doesn't shine at night, so that is not consistent with the sun being the cause. It is consistent with excess atmospheric CO2 being the cause.
Winter temperatures have risen faster that summertime temperatures. The sun shines less in winter, so that is not consistent with the sun being the cause. It is consistent with excess atmospheric CO2 being the cause.
Temperatures at the poles have risen faster than temperatures in temperate regions. The poles receive less sun, so that is not consistent with the sun being the cause. It is consistent with excess atmospheric CO2 being the cause.
If the sun were causing the increase in temperature, the amount of energy the Earth radiates into space would go up as the planet warms. Satellites in space have measured a reduction in the energy the Earth radiates into space. The reduction is at the wavelength that is absorbed by CO2 in the atmosphere, and tracks the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. This would not occur if the sun was causing the temperature increase, and can only be explained by increased CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels causing the Earth to warm by trapping heat energy before it can be reradiated into space, a process known as the "greenhouse effect".
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Mick Stupp at 06:44 AM on 22 August 2017CERN CLOUD experiment proved cosmic rays are causing global warming
I keep coming across a graph showing correlation between sun spot cycle length and temperature, which purports to explain the cooling from 1940 to 1975. There's and example of it here: http://www.paulmacrae.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/sunspots-climate-friends-of-science.gif
I can't find a robust reference to this, does anyone know its origins? Also, has anyone seen this covering a longer period in history?
Assuming it is accurate it does suggest a good correlation, but this has to be a complex one. TSI alone does not explain it as this varies surprisingly little. CLOUD seem to have found strong evidence that extremely small amounts of aerosols have big effects on cloud formation, but the role of cosmic rays still seems inconclusive.
Again assuming the above mentioned graph is correct, are we still searching for an explanation for the apparently good correlation between sun spots and temperature? Anyone know what CLOUD's future agenda is in this regard.
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed link. Please see "Solar Cycle Length proves its the sun" myth. Any replies, comment on that thread please, not here.
You might also note that gif from anti-science group "Friends of Science" is of the data without the arithmetic mistake corrected, despite this being known since 2000.
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Daniel Bailey at 00:08 AM on 22 August 2017Problems For Oil
"who you are and what your qualifications are"
Why does that matter at all? The article cites sources.
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AndyT at 18:25 PM on 21 August 2017Problems For Oil
Hi Riduna. Great article, thank you. Being a cautious type though, please tell me something about who you are and what your qualifications are. Thanks!
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scaddenp at 10:52 AM on 21 August 2017Models are unreliable
RandyC - would you accept that if climate science is correct about CC control of water vapour, then Total Precipatible Water should then be highly correlated with surface temperature? Furthermore, you agree that if climate science has it wrong about CC, then climate sensitivity derived from paleotemperature archives would be lower than those derived from models?
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Tom Curtis at 10:28 AM on 21 August 2017Models are unreliable
Randy C @1069, your assumptions about what climate scientists believe are in error. In particular, while the assumption of constant relative humidity is used as a first approximation of the water vapour feedback, it is not used as an assumption in detailed explorations of the issue. See Minschwaner an Dessler (2004) as an example of more detailed examinations.
I will further note that your assumption that if relative humidity is not maintained, the water vapour feedback is negligible is also not valid.
Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that RandyC is just the latest iteration of serial spammer cosmoswarrior and his iterative sock puppets coolearth / diehard / dieharder / moonrabbit / landdownunder / blackhole / WhiteDwarf / GreenThumb / HeatRay / RobJones / JamesMartin / banbrotam / JeffDylan / jcdylan. His compulsion to flood this venue with sock puppets is strong, bordering on pathological.
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wili at 07:28 AM on 21 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #33
Thanks again for these, and especially for the troubling lead article. So shouldn't we have expected July of a non-El Nino year to be at least a bit cooler than the previous July of an El Nino year? Does this tie portend anything? Could we be seeiing the beginning of a 'step change,' where we are suddenly knocked directly into a warmer regime, never to cool below pre-2016 levels again (or only perhaps temporarily after a major volcano eruption or some such thing)?
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ubrew12 at 01:10 AM on 21 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #33
The link to "Here's what Trump's team gets wrong about climate change so far" by the weather channel, isn't working properly. I found it here.
Moderator Response:[JH] Proper link inserted. Thank you for bringing this to our attention.
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Paul D at 19:54 PM on 20 August 2017Problems For Oil
Swayseeker@4
How is oil supposed to enhance tree growth?
The fact is trees are vulnerable to human activity as much as mammals, birds etc. That isn't going to change. Creating fake environments is just a further development of humans displaying their god like intentions (control and domination of everything), on top of many other existing human activities.
The basic and only way forward is for humans to fit in with the basic natural processes. As far as energy goes, that is solar energy, tidal energy and maybe geothermal. Wind and wave energy are effectively second and third hand solar energy.
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RandyC at 17:14 PM on 20 August 2017Models are unreliable
I have an important challenge for all climate scientists who feel mathematically inclined.
According to modern climate science theory, H2O vapor concentration is determined only by temperature. This is because H2O can exist on earth in all three phases (solid, liquid, or gas), and therefore the concentration of H2O vapor is determined by the Clausius-Claperyon (C.C.) equation at the given temperature. CO2, however, exists on earth only as a gas (except of course for man-made dry ice), and therefore is subject to no such constraints by the C.C. equation.
The fact that CO2 concentrations can freely vary whereas H2O vapor concentrations are determined by temperature makes CO2 a "control knob" for the greenhouse effect. The argument is that we can increase CO2 concentration without it condensing, which would then increase greenhouse heating causing a rise in temperature. This temperature rise then causes more H2O molecules to enter the vapor state which in turn causes more GH heating. The reverse, of course, holds true if CO2 concentrations decrease. Therefore, CO2 controls the GH heating even though H2O vapor is the stronger GHG, both spectrally and in quantity.
In examining the derivation of the C.C equation, we note that it assumes an isolated system in thermal equilibrium, which the earth and its atmosphere is not. They do, however, form a local thermal equilibrium (LTE) system where temperature and concentrations can be defined locally but not globally, a situation often occurring in fluid mechanics. To a climate scientist, LTE works the same as global equilibrium for use in the C.C. equation. I have some misgivings about that but I won't argue the point now.
Let's take a look at the C.C. equation. It states that for an isolated system consisting of a substance in the gas state in thermal equilibrium with the same substance in the liquid (or solid) state, the partial pressure P of the gas is related to temperature T according to
ln (P/P_ref) = (H_vap/R)((1/T_ref) - (1/T))
where P_ref and T_ref can be any known valid partial pressure / temperature pair, for example P_ref = 1 atm at T_ref = 373 deg K, H_vap = latent heat of vaporization, and R = universal gas constant. Notice that only one value of the partial pressure P and one value of the temperature T is inserted into this equation. So, how do we choose those values for a system consisting of many different partial pressures and temperatures? I believe most climate scientists would say that one merely replaces the values of P and T with their global mean values
and . But is this mathematically correct? This is the challenge I have for all climate scientists who feel mathematically inclined. Given that the above equation is true for all points on the globe (ie. LTE is assumed), prove or show a counter-example to this equation:
ln (
/P_ref) = (H_vap/R)((1/T_ref) - (1/))
Keep in mind, of course, that if this assertion is not true, then the entire CO2 "control knob" theory is in serious trouble.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sock puppet nonsense snipped.
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Wol at 13:36 PM on 20 August 2017Problems For Oil
I mean, of course, "Fall" rather than "Rise".
Read before pressing "submit".......
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Wol at 13:34 PM on 20 August 2017Problems For Oil
My guess is that there will be a sort of hockey stick line in the EV take-up numbers. (With apologies to Michael Mann)
As more and more cars are EVs the demand for gasoline will obviously fall and as a result there will be a rise in the number of filling stations able to remain profitable.
As it becomes more difficult to find gas stations and with greater accessibility to charging points I reckon there'l be a near vertical end to the EV hockey stick.
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nigelj at 06:29 AM on 20 August 2017Problems For Oil
Swayseeker @4
I respect your technical knowledge, but these are dubious ideas not properly thought through, not likely to make a significant difference, not likely to be cost effective, not practical, and just circulates CO2 around the system when we are trying to actually reduce fossil fuel use. Not likely to be supported by climate denialist "President" Trump.
You have promoted similar stuff before, and it was explained why it doesn't make sense. Do you not listen to feedback?
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Swayseeker at 00:14 AM on 20 August 2017Problems For Oil
President Trump is saving jobs in the oil, gas, etc, sections, so it looks as if oil, etc is here to stay for a while. If one could get oil to enhance tree growing and offset some of the problems that might be the best in the short term. People have proposed the solar energy updraft tower as a mechanism for convectional rain formation (warm moist air from greenhouses at the base of the tower, etc) and one could grow trees in arid ares if rain would fall there. Although people have been advocating solar updraft towers, so far not much has been done. The present design has a greenhouse at the bottom providing hot air. My concern is that air does not come into intimate contact with hot surfaces with a greenhouse and if the hot air is not transferred quickly, there will be heat losses through the glass of a greenhouse and so on. Air is not heated much by radiation, but it is heated efficiently by direct contact with hot surfaces. I therefore propose that solar air heaters be used for the base of the solar updraft towers, rather than greenhouses. With greater efficiency one would not have to have such a large area (the greenhouse needs a huge area). Also, with solar air heaters, the heaters can be mounted vertically on poles saving huge space. Perhaps a smaller greenhouse at the base with seawater with the sole purpose of mistening air and solar air heaters mounted on poles would supply convectional rain and trees could be grown with the rain. Hot eserts are ideal places because there is space to grow trees and a lot of solar energy. Then oil and gas could possibly be phased out or used to heat water for the solar updraft towers.
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Riduna at 16:15 PM on 19 August 2017Problems For Oil
Digby - Yes it should be. Thanks
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Digby Scorgie at 15:42 PM on 19 August 2017Problems For Oil
In the second sentence of the Conclusions, shouldn't it be "increase charge density, descrease recharge time, and reduce costs"?
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Larry E at 13:52 PM on 19 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
Nigelj, it would be a 46% cut from 2005 to 2050. But for a mere 66% chance of avoiding a 2oC temperature rise the latest budgeting approach calls for attaining zero emissions by 2050 globally. For the wealthy nations, given the need for north/south equity as acknowledged in the Paris agreement, this means those nations would need to attain zero emissions by 2035. See, e.g., charts in http://go.nature.com/2t1gwUD and http://bit.ly/2fT3kyr, also posts by @Peters_Glen and presentations/panels here: http://bit.ly/2wObfAt. We have delayed so long the task ahead is difficult, but due to the consequences we otherwise face, necessary.
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nigelj at 08:48 AM on 19 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
If America kept up the 14% drop in emissions they would be 2900 by 2050, which is almost cut in half. This shows what can be done with even quite modest efforts.
So wheres the evidence reducing emissions destroys the economy that Trump claims? More fake news I say.
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nigelj at 08:14 AM on 19 August 2017Problems For Oil
The best way to get more done to reduce emissions might be to put more emphasis on the advantages of electric cars and renewable energy. I don't mean in any way stop discussing the latest science or denialist myths, but just as a general strategy for anyone interested in the climate issue.
The following article is a formidable analysis of just how political climate denialism has become, and how rigid it is, and reasons why. Focussing on renewable energy and electric cars might effectively help side step political conflicts that are not going to go away too easily. Most people respond to lower running costs, quieter more reliable cars, etc.
However theres one sticking point. As prices of oil drop this may encourage petrol cars in the shorter term.
And better batteries are crucial. In fact range is already looking quite good, but Im thinking heating.
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bozzza at 17:26 PM on 18 August 2017In defense of not being serious in climate communication
In the end is it funny? What do you really want to say?
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bozzza at 17:24 PM on 18 August 2017In defense of not being serious in climate communication
Humour certainly can play a part: it's called writing in Aphoristic style... the truth still has to be grasped and that is the trick otherwise it's just empty humour that gets thrown away like all the other pieces of empty humour we hear everyday...
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bozzza at 17:15 PM on 18 August 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
"Unfortunatley, the number of ways to do something wrong always exceeds the number of ways to do something right."
(Gary Kasparov)
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newairly at 14:12 PM on 18 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
Meanwhile emissions in Australia continue to rise, 1.6% in the last quarter and 1% in the past year.
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nigelj at 14:11 PM on 18 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
Singleton engineer
I agree use of Hydro has probably been constant recently, or more likely dropping. Still its strange that they left an obvious significant source of power out.
I wasnt speculating about the future except to note hydro as pumped storage is an interesting idea. This is storage not an energy source so would never be in the tables and graphs above.
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SingletonEngineer at 11:45 AM on 18 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
@nigelj and JohnS:
This analysis is about the effects of things that have happened, not what might happen. It is also focuissed on change from the historical trend.
My guess is that hydro in USA has been pretty much constant during the study period, neither adding nor subtracting emissions from the BAU case. Discussion of whether or not additional dams are possible or even probable is not relevant - the fact is that the possibles and probables haven't happened and therefore have had no effect on emissions.
If the same analysis was done for China, the Three Gorges Dam would have an effect, thus would earn a coloured wedge.
The same applies to possible future tidal, wave, geothermal and other sources. Until their contribution is real and significant, it won't show up.
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nigelj at 08:42 AM on 18 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
John S
Yes it's peculiar why they didn't include information on hydro power. Its certainly low emissions and cost competitive long term.
Perhaps they left it out because most rivers than can be easily used in america are probably already used. The growth areas seem to be wind and solar, as these have lower initial construction costs, and probably less difficulties getting consents. Large dams can be pretty contentious issues environmentally.
Still its not obvious why they left it out.
But pumped storage hydro power has potential.
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John S at 06:43 AM on 18 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
what about hydroelectricity ..according to Wikipedia it accounted for 282 TWh in 2008?
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Larry E at 18:42 PM on 17 August 2017Analysis: Why US carbon emissions have fallen 14% since 2005
This analysis considers only domestic emissions. Of course there are also embedded emissions in goods we import, and part of the reason for emissions reductions is that a lot of US manufacturing has been moved offshore (also entailing transport emissions for getting goods from there to here). Carbon Brief also published a study on that in July. "Mapped - The world’s largest CO2 importers and exporters," https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-importers-exporters.
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Swayseeker at 22:43 PM on 16 August 2017In defense of not being serious in climate communication
I see the latest series is on persuading people to cut emissions. This reminded me of a recent "discovery" I made. With more emissions the sky is going to radiate more strongly and I wonder if the modified Swinbank model of night time downward thermal radiation to estimate sky temperature (Tsky) for a clear night sky is not going to have to be adjusted.
Here I would like an opinion on what I have discovered (it could alter perceptions on dew formation and drought in forests): The mechanism is this: Radiation to the sky on cold clear nights and thus radiative cooling of the ground, "dew machines", etc. When the ground, etc, is cooler (from radiating) than the dew point, dew forms. if the sky temperature is less than the temperature of the ground, then the net radiation is to the sky (objects lose heat and temperature declines). If the sky temperature is greater than the ground temperature, then objects heat up at ground level.
I used the modified Swinbank model of night time downward thermal radiation to estimate sky temperature (Tsky) for a clear night sky and also calculated dew point temperature. If Tsky is below dew point temperature (Tdew), then objects can cool below Tdew by radiating to the sky and dew can form. Now look at my graph drawn from my calculations. With air temperature (Tair) and ground below about 7 deg C, objects can radiate to the sky effectively until they have temperature below Tdew. If Tair is greater than about 7 deg C then it seems dew will not readily form because Tsky is greater than Tdew (usually). All the calculations were done for a relative humidity of 95%. The above might be complicated by having a warm cloud or warm rocks, etc, nearby. Now dew forms on clear nights (no cloud). From this site you can check my calculations, using the formula for a cloudless sky: http://www.asterism.org/tutorials/tut37%20Radiative%20Cooling.pdf I believe you will find what I found - at about 7 deg C net radiation from ground to sky becomes nearly zero. If temperatures increase with global warming, less dew will form in arid areas (if I am correct). The graph is on my Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Swayseeker -
chriskoz at 09:08 AM on 16 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #32
As if by confirmation of my earlier post about super-warm southern winter:
NASA shocker: Last month was hottest July, and hottest month, on record
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chriskoz at 08:28 AM on 16 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #32
I've never seen Earth being prtrayed as sexy warrior woman as in today's poster and don't know what to think of it.
I think it feels accurate because the planet is remarkably resilient (far more resilient than the civilisation that wants to destroy its ecosystems) and its long term negative feedbacks (rock weathering) will prevent runaway climate change.
But I don't know what effect that image will have on an average selfish person, especially a silly denier.
Moderator Response:[JH] The woman in the Poster of the Week is Wonder Woman, a famous US comic book hero who has also been portrayed on TV and in movies. It's a good thing to have super heroes defending the Earth.
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chriskoz at 08:21 AM on 16 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #32
SYD temp 20|C warmer than average, so absurd temps are coming not only to arctic but also elsewhere, in this case even to my backyard.
Deniers will of course say that it's fine to have a warm suthern winter, no matter what the arguments. The arguments being: such anomaly can bring ecological disaster, e.g. vectors of tropical diseases.
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gws at 06:55 AM on 16 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #30
Here is an article from that week, 28 July, that was missed:
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nigelj at 06:50 AM on 16 August 2017In defense of not being serious in climate communication
I think humour and a light touch is a good communication tool. We all like a good laugh, so its a point of commonality. Humour unites people and reduces tension.
However playing devils advocate, its frustrating how we have to bend over backwards to get the climate message across, when it can be simply stated that greenhouses gases are causing temperatures to increase, and we know this for reasons a), b) and c). And its already altering global weather patterns, generally for the worse.
How many forms of delivery mechanism does the message need, for goodness sake?
Getting off fossil fuels has something in common with breaking an addiction. Its going to be hard work.
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Innovater at 07:13 AM on 15 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #29
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
I forgot to add the links to my previous comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qUxjDBY0i0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiLBbBy8BEY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x64bWsVUPjo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RBzlyOCdcQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gps8YwlX8Lc&spfreload=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LObn2Sk7tVg&spfreload=10 The Little Ice Age
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEzAC89dzgs
Moderator Response:[PS] Please read and abide by comments policy. Especially note the rule on link-only comments. We have no idea what you are trying to say and certainly are not going to waste time looking at videos to find out. I would warn you that if your intention is a gish-gallop of long-debunked myths in video form, then your comment is unacceptable. Make your point on a relevant thread (use search function to find threads) and read the article first. Stick only that point. Certainly provide supporting evidence but peer-reviewed papers are better than videos. use the Link button in the editor to create links - dont expect pasted html to work.
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knaugle at 04:08 AM on 15 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #29
#1
The 13.3% decline comes from the NSIDC Arctic Sea ice reports for sea ice extent with (I think) at least 15% coverage. So it's area.
NSIDC Report For September 2016
It's in the note to the graph for "September 2016 compared to previous years"
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Larry E at 03:52 AM on 15 August 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
sauerj,
Your faith in how the CCL proposal would work in the marketplace continues to be magical thinking.
Also, you asked: "Lastly, if I wanted to help support a cap-only policy, where would I go to help build support? Is there any organized groups that are advocating such a policy so to rally behind? Are there any active lobby groups, or grass-root or grass-top groups that are building coalition for this? Are there any studies to describe its follow-up economic & political impact? ... What gives you a personal sense of confidence that a cap-only policy would practically have any political "legs" both in the now & after implementation?"
I will answer in reverse order. I suggest you read "Any way you slice it: The past, present and future of rationing," a book by Stan Cox (2013). Rationing was supported during WW-II by the populous in both the US and UK because it was necessary and fair. For some materials it was done to limit consumption, and for others to contain prices. So it was fair both in distributing supply and in maintaining broad access through reasonable prices, and by adaptations to avoid black markets. (In the UK such rationing existed into the mid-1950s, as well as other places in Europe.) As far as having "legs," any scheme is going to require a shock in order to be enacted, and we are getting those not infrequently with climate tragedies (Sandy, Katrina, killer heat waves and floods), so the thing is to have an EFFECTIVE plan ready to push to enactment.
Check out The Climate Mobilization (http://www.theclimatemobilization.org/). They have a well thought out plan that includes rationing. All it needs is to build momentum, with more people behind it, and be ready for triggering events to build yet more momentum until it reaches a tipping point for implementation. I suggest humanity's future it would be best for you and other CCL supports to instead put a shoulder into pushing this effort.
Best regards; as you said we both seek the same outcome.
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wili at 02:21 AM on 15 August 2017Yale Climate Connections: America's beacon of climate science awareness
Thanks for highlighting this excellent group. So far, I have been impressed with pretty much everything I have seen from them and about them.
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wili at 02:20 AM on 15 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #32
Another horror to add to the next news roundup:
Hundreds buried alive in massive Sierra Leone mudslides and floods
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nigelj at 18:24 PM on 14 August 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: If I just explain the facts, they'll get it, right?
Tunnely @ 6
All your points make sense.
Heres something I read today posted on another website:
"The reason people dismiss it (climate change) as a problem is because from their perspective they cannot see a problem (or the problem is way off in the future or someone else will cop it), therefore why should they, as they see it, take cuts to their quality of life for no perceptible gain to themselves. Human cognition is terrible at visualising seemingly inivisible threats as a problem, and giving the future any significant value compared to the here and now. This last point is a key issue, people want to enjoy the benefits of capitalism now, and any consequences in the future are of much lower value.
No different to people refusing to give up smoking or excessive drinking, the pleasure they get now outweighs the health consequences (which may or may not happen) in the future. Similar in a way to when drivers pull off dangerous manoevres around cyclists, the driver externalises the risk without consequence, the cyclist takes the consequence if it goes wrong, if an accident does happen the driver will often use any excuse to blame the victim. The climate change and consequences issue is just like that but on a global scale and orders of magnitude more severe."
My comment: You could add some other reasons why people dismiss the science and / or emissions cuts:
1) Worries about job security. Surveys of employees of fossil fuel companies show this.
2) Fear of so called big government.
3) Climate change is a big issue, more mentally challenging than say the ozone hole thing. Some people are probably overwhelmed by it.
4) Fear that emissions cuts could be difficult and economically expensive. Fear of the unknown.
I could go on for pages of reasons. There are as many reasons for climate change scepticism as there are sceptics.
However numbers of these subsets of cynics are slowly declining. Its following other debates like tobacco and evolution.
Pew polls show over 75% of people want more done about climate change in many countries. The trouble is getting the politicians to move, as they are captive to various lobby groups. Perhaps more people should lobby their local politicians directly more, and it would be good if more wealthy philanthropists sympathetic to climate science funded politicians.
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wili at 15:14 PM on 14 August 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #32
depending on what values you prefer for methane gw potential, the figure for CO2 equivalence is either a bit below or above 500 ppm. In the latter case, you probably have to go back to some time in the Eocene.
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scaddenp at 11:46 AM on 14 August 2017Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
Tom13 - you need to provide some references to support many of your assertions. It is very unclear what is informing your argument.
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scaddenp at 11:41 AM on 14 August 2017Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
While the life expectancy argument is suspect, it is undoubtedly true that fossil fuels have benefited the western world in particular over the last two hundred years.
It does not follow however that they should be subsidized or even used rather than alternatives. Should horse-breeding and lively stables been subsidized and protected when petroleum arrived because horses had undoubtly benefited those that used them for thousands of years?
One major problem with climate change is that benefits are largely to the more developed nations whereas vunerability to climate change is highest for those that have used them least.
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Tunnelly at 10:58 AM on 14 August 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: If I just explain the facts, they'll get it, right?
nigelj @ 1.
You're absolutely right. The key descriptor here is rational sceptic. Those are the people who can be persuaded by methodical sciences. Easy-peasy.
Sometimes though, the really tough nuts to crack, the kind that you described as maybe having a "political reaction" are actually cynics that doubt motives, not sceptics who question methods.
I've had numerous conversations with individuals who could easily come around to admitting the reality of climate change. But they would still refuse to take any action to help combat it.
They would seem to be greatly discomforted by a perception that either:
A) certain interested parties like solar/wind industries, EV car makers, left-wing politicians, etc stood to gain from their contribution and should not be "abetted" (cynical questioning of motives)
or
B) they would somehow disadvantage themselves or be out-competed by those who stuck to business-as-usual ( a kind of social dominance thought structure https://medium.com/@qwertie/psychology-of-climate-denial-276967f179c )
And then beyond the cynics are the straight-up pessimists. They accept the science but simply refuse to think enough can be done about it and to try would be to disadvantage themselves.
However, I do think polling trends throughout the years show that these subsets of cynics and pessimists are a shrinking minority, at best.
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nigelj at 10:56 AM on 14 August 2017Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
"Life expectancy increase dramatically from the early 1900's until today for 3 primary reasons, improvements in sanitation, massive leaps in crop yields due primarily from the shift to mechanized farming due in part from the availability of fossil fuels, and a distant third reason is the improvements in health care."
Nonsense. No sources given. I agree with comments at 27. The principal reasons are medical advances, antibiotics, sanitation, hygene, education and housing as below. Crop yields would be a secondary reason, and fossil fuels in last place.
www.nature.com/scitable/content/life-expectancy-around-the-world-has-increased-19786
Who wants to live forever? - Why are people living longer?
Moderator Response:[BW] Edited the 2nd link as it was breaking the page format. Please use the "Insert" tab of the comments box to properly embed links. Thanks!
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