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Comments 18701 to 18750:

18701. citizenschallenge at 00:15 AM on 13 August 2017
       The year Trump was elected was so hot, it was one-in-a-million
       

       "Unfortunately, scientific censorship is no longer our main concern."

       Agreed, I would suggest general apathy and passivity among the leftie liberal types, and a faith-based determination not to hear a thing or learn a dang thing among the angry right wingers - our our main problem.

       It even seems that SkS comments are not near as active and vibrant as they were not too long ago.  Burn out and preoccupation with one's own life - does not bode well for our future.  I cry for our children.

18702. BBHY at 23:05 PM on 12 August 2017
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: If I just explain the facts, they'll get it, right?
       

       I find it's best to express the science in the simpliest possible terms.

       CO2 aborbs infrared heat energy. We have known this since John Tyndall did experiments in the 1850's and every experiment since has shown the same thing.

       Adding black ink to white paint makes the paint darker. Adding sugar to water makes the water sweeter. Adding stuff that absorbs heat to the air makes the air absorb more heat. When the air absorbs heat, it gets warmer. 

       This is not some very abstract, hard to grasp concept. It is very similar to things that we see every day, that we are familiar with and understand at an intuitive level.

18703. mark15915 at 07:19 AM on 12 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       I just read today (11 August) that the governor of West Virginia has proposed that the federal government subsidize the purchase of Wet Virginia coal. According to theWall Street Journal via the Washington Post:

       Jim Justice, the born-again Republican governor of West Virginia, is floating a federal proposal to bail out the struggling Appalachian coal industry at a cost to taxpayers of up to $4.5 billion a year.

       As Justice described it to the Wall Street Journal, under the proposal, the federal government would pay out $15 to eastern power companies for each ton of Appalachian coal they purchase.

18704. Daniel Bailey at 03:28 AM on 12 August 2017
       They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
       

       To follow up on MA Rodger's sage point, the impacts of the burning of fossil fuels, including the usage of the phrase climate change, were discussed in a report to the President of the US as far back as...

        

       ...(drumroll please)...

        

       ...1965 (page 113).

18705. MA Rodger at 01:54 AM on 12 August 2017
       They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
       

       Doradus @20,

       You have hit on a very interesting piece of evidence by considering the frequency of google searches. But I fail to see why you consider this points to a switch in 2014 in the media? Firstly, the myth is far older than 2014. Note that this SkS OP dates from January 2011. And secondly, if you extend your google search data back to the start of the data (2004), the evidence shows the term "Global Warming" was by far the more popular term used in searches but began to slowly decline from that dominant position from 2007, while the term "Climate Change" has been the subject of increasing use in google searches from the start of the data in 2004. Note the two terms when used in the search "What is ..." still gives "Global Warming" the edge in popularity.

18706. Doradus at 22:08 PM on 11 August 2017
       They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
       

       I feel like you may be letting your skepticism get in the way of providing a useful answer here.

       If you assume "they" refers to news media, it's hard to miss the fact that they switched around 2014 from the term "global warming" to "climate change" to mean roughly the same thing.  I couldn't find any direct evidence of this, but you can see the effect in people's Google searches over the last five years:

       https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=global%20warming,climate%20change

       I think this is an interesting phenomenon and would like to understand why the news media swtiched to "climate change".

18707. Daniel Bailey at 06:01 AM on 11 August 2017
       It's methane
       

       Now let's examine the literature on Arctic seabed clathrate/methane emissions:

       Dmitrenko et al 2011 - Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability

       "the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane-bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long-lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes"

       And

       "A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ~70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost-related gas hydrate stability zone"

        

       Berndt et al 2014 - Temporal Constraints on Hydrate-Controlled Methane Seepage off Svalbard

       "Strong emissions of methane have recently been observed from shallow sediments in Arctic seas...such emissions have been present for at least 3000 years, the result of normal seasonal fluctuations of bottom waters"

        

       James et al 2016 - Effects of climate change on methane emissions from seafloor sediments in the Arctic Ocean_A review

       "We find that, at present, fluxes of dissolved methane are significantly moderated by anaerobic and aerobic oxidation of methane"

       And

       "Our review reveals that increased observations around especially the anaerobic and aerobic oxidation of methane, bubble transport, and the effects of ice cover, are required to fully understand the linkages andfeedback pathways between climate warming and release of methane from marine sediments"

       And

       "a recent study [the earlier mentioned paper by Dmitrenko et al in 2011] suggests that degradation of subsea permafrost is primarily related to warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 yr ago, rather than recent Arctic warming"

        

       Per Myhre et al 2016 - Extensive release of methane from Arctic seabed west of Svalbard during summer 2014 does not influence the atmosphere

       "Methane gas released from the Arctic seabed during the summermonths leads to an increased methane concentration in the ocean. But surprisingly, very little of the climate gas rising up through the sea reaches the atmosphere.

       As of today, three independent models employing the marine and atmospheric measurements show that the methane emissions from the sea bed in the area did not significantly affect the atmosphere."

        

       Ruppel and Kessler 2017 - The interaction of climate change and methane hydrates

       "The breakdown of methane hydrates due to warming climate is unlikely to lead to massive amounts of methane being released to the atmosphere"

       And

       "not only are the annual emissions of methane to the ocean from degrading gas hydrates far smaller than greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from human activities, but most of the methane released by gas hydrates never reaches the atmosphere"

        

       To sum, the vast majority of warming land-based permafrost GHG emissions are in the form of carbon dioxide, due to natural factors that help break down any methane releases into various components plus carbon dioxide (methane is much less stable than carbon dioxide).

       Similarly, the vast majority of gases expelled from degrading seabed methane clathrates are oxidized in the water column and do not reach the surface. Further, much of what we do measure in the form of existing releases are traced to the much longer warming present earlier in the Holocene. And that these same clathrates survived earlier interglacials, wherein global temperatures exceeded those of today...for millennia. So they are actually pretty stable.

18708. Daniel Bailey at 05:55 AM on 11 August 2017
       It's methane
       

       The remainder can be split into 2 buckets:  Terrestrial (land-based) carbon sources and Marine (maritime-based) carbon sources.

       Land-based permafrost is indeed melting, reducing in both area and volume. However, the vast majority of carbon emissions from those land-based melting permafrost areas are in the form of carbon dioxide, not methane.

       There is an extensive amount of published research on the subject of GHG emissions from warming land-based permafrost and the possible releases from seabed methane clathrates in the Arctic. Let's look at land-based warming permafrost GHG emissions first...

       Per Gao et al 2013 - Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback

       "Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback.

       We find that increases in atmospheric CH4 and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1° C by 2100.

       Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required.

       Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions."

       And, as the Gao et al paper I linked to notes, CH4 from permafrost will drive an expected temperature increase by 2100 of about 0.1 C. Schaefer et al 2014 now calculates a total temperature rise contribution from ALL permafrost carbon stocks (CO2 AND CH4) by 2100 of about 0.29 ± 0.21 (0.08-0.5 C).

       Schaefer et al 2014 - The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate

        

       Per Schuur et al 2015, an abrupt permafrost climate feedback is unlikely, according to the experts, but the bad news is that the already difficult task of keeping warming under 2°C becomes much harder once we face up to the consequences of Arctic permafrost feedbacks.

       Per Sweeney et al 2016 - No significant increase in long-term CH4 emissions on North Slope of Alaska despite significant increase in air temperature

        

       "Data show no sign of methane boost from thawing permafrost"

       And

       "Decades of atmospheric measurements from a site in northern Alaska show that rapidly rising temperatures there have not significantly increased methane emissions from the neighboring permafrost-covered landscape"

        

18709. Daniel Bailey at 05:47 AM on 11 August 2017
       It's methane
       

       "more data on arctic methane releases, including the Siberian methane explosions"

       Here you go:

       "It would take about 20,000,000 such eruptions within a few years to generate the standard Arctic Methane Apocalypse that people have been talking about."

18710. DennisMyers at 03:42 AM on 11 August 2017
       It's methane
       

       I would like to see this updated with more data on arctic methane releases, including the Siberian methane explosions, as well as the methan hydrate outgassing from the ocean floor. I want to know how soon we might reach the point where the amount of methane already released would cause enough warming to ensure the release of all the frozen sources. 

18711. Philippe Chantreau at 02:29 AM on 11 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       Splitting hairs on what is or is not a subsidy distracts from the important stuff. The only reason fossil fuels are as profitable as they are is their externalized costs. If even only the current total costs of climate change and fossil fuel exploitation were to be attached to their cause, fossil fuel extraction, transformation and burning would all have to make serious adjustments, the kind that can prompt investors to take their bucket and shovel and go play in another sandbox.

       The invasion of the New York subway by salt water, the toppled levees in New Orleans, the defenses now necessary in Miami, the increased frequency of extreme dry and wet events, all these are externalized costs of fossil fuel burning. Then of course, there is the complete destruction of the landscape in Athabasca, filling valleys with toxic sludge in West Virginia, spills, respiratory illnesses, etc. Even when courts attribute responsibility in catastrophic events, the consequences for the responsible corporations are very small, delayed, diluted; the consequences for the individuals who were instrumental in the decisions leading to catastrophic events are non existent. All these costs, however, do not go away; in fact they tend to pile up; they will become more and more apparent, more expensive, and more varied as time goes by.

       The fact that any subsidy of any kind would be granted to an industry that is beyond mature, and generates such enormous profits, has no rational explanation.

       Meanwhile, the mass extinction marches on. The reality is quite simple: there is no long term future for humans on this planet that does not include the eradication of global, industrial scale fossil fuel burning, one way or another. Even if we were to take all the coal, gas and oil out of the ground, it would run out after a few hundred years, a thousand at most, a blink of an eye in the grand scheme of things. How painful the transition away from fossil fuels is depends to a large extent on how long we wait to start.

18712. MA Rodger at 07:04 AM on 10 August 2017
       Medieval Warm Period was warmer
       

       It might be worth pointing out to commenter J Doug Swallow that while he may feel he is justified @243 in accusing Mann of falsifying work, the authors he cites in support of an such egregious accusation are not in any way supportive of the J Doug Swallow position. Four of the five authors of the paper he cites  Viau et al (2002) are also the authors of Viau et al (2006) which considers the Mann 'hockey-stick' compatable with its own findings, stating "The results are remarkably similar, in spite of the different methods and proxies employed in these studies (Figure 6). This provides further evidence that our North American temperature reconstruction is reasonable and also representative of a large region of the Northern Hemisphere."

       

       More recently two of the authors published Viau et al (2012) which surely supports the contention of this SkS OP as it kicks off its conclusions stating "The pollen-based paleoclimate reconstructions show that warmer conditions during the MWP and cooler in the LIA were all nevertheless cooler than the 1961–1990 base period, and this result emerges even without comparing the results to the instrumental record."

       The other two papers cited by commenter J Doug Swallow are similarly inappropriate as support for his contentions.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] I strongly doubt Swallow is reading the material he is citing - more likely just repeating something from a denier site somewhere. I'd guess Co2Science.org given the sites perchance for claiming papers says opposite to what they really do, confident that their readership will not check. They have misrepresented Viau in the past.

18713. nigelj at 06:22 AM on 10 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       Tom @13,

       "The paper never identifies a direct subsidy, nor does it quantify any direct subsidy nor does provide any data to support the computation of the direct subsidy[ies] the study claims the fossil fuel industry receives."

       Perhaps the paper didnt "identify" any direct fossil fuel subsidies because this information is easy enough to find, and they are not in the business of providing a long list of data. For example look up "energy subsidies" on wikipedia, under the entry for America, and you will see a highly detailed breakdown from Terry M Dinnan, senior advisor to the congressional budget office, for 2013. Yes I know its wikipedia, but original references are provided for this information.

       The article covers some other countries including Russia and Europe. One suspects in some other cases it would have to be estimates as governments can be secretive at times.

       However the point is it took me literally seconds to find this information, and quickly scan through it, just the first google hit that came up, and there were plenty of reputable looking articles on fossil fuel subsidies. On that basis I have no real reason to doubt the methods and numbers in the original article. Clearly some is likely to be estimates for some countries, but the information for the USA appears easilly accessible.

18714. J Doug Swallow at 02:11 AM on 10 August 2017
       Medieval Warm Period was warmer
       

        From recent experience on this site and dealing with this topic "How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?" I'm sure that neither Daniel Bailey & doug_bostrom will believe that this information below pertains to the Medieval Warm Period and, if not, they should tell me why it does not.

       Since Michael Mann felt that he could get away with using falsified tree ring observations from two trees in Siberia to make his hockey stick graph when pollen records show something very different.
       Widespread evidence of 1500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr
       Abstract: "Times of major transitions identified in pollen records occurred at 600, 1650, 2850, 4030, 6700, 8100, 10 190, 12 900, and 13 800 cal yr B.P., consistent with ice and marine records. We suggest that North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variability is associated with rearrangements of the atmospheric circulation with far-reaching influences on the climate."
       <http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/30/5/455>

       Climate Change Froze the Vikings Out of Greenland, Say Scientists

       ''What’s the News: Climate change may have sparked the demise of early Viking settlements in Greenland, according to a new study published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, when temperatures cooled rapidly over several decades. Around the time the Vikings disappear from the island’s archaeological record, temperature appears to have plunged. Nor were the Vikings the only people in Greenland whose fortunes rose and fell with the average temperature, the study suggests. Earlier cold spells may have played a role in the collapse of two previous groups on the island.''

       <http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2011/05/31/climate-change-froze-the-vikings-out-of-greenland-say-scientists/>

       While we are dealing with the Vikings, may be either Daniel Bailey & doug_bostrom can inform me of how this information is off topic.
       The farm under the sand
       Researcher challenges conventional thinking on disappearance of Viking community
       "The Norse arrived in Greenland 1,000 years ago and became very well established," says Schweger, describing the Viking farms and settlements that crowded the southeast and southwest coasts of Greenland for almost 400 years.
       "The Greenland settlements were the most distant of all European medieval sites in the world," said Schweger. "Then the Norse disappear, and the question has always been: what happened?"

       Cross-sections of the GUS soil show the Vikings began their settlement by burning off Birch brush to form a meadow. Over the next 300 to 400 years, the meadow soil steadily improved its nutritional qualities, showing that the Greenland Vikings weren't poor farmers, as McGovern and others have suggested. "At GUS, the amount of organic matter and the quality of soil increased and sustained farming for 400 years," says Schweger. "If they were poor farmers, then virtually all the farming in North America is poor farming."
       <https://sites.ualberta.ca/~publicas/folio/38/16/03.html>

       ''We find that major temperature changes in the past 4,500 y occurred abruptly (within decades), and were coeval in timing with the archaeological records of settlement and abandonment of the Saqqaq, Dorset, and Norse cultures, which suggests that abrupt temperature changes profoundly impacted human civilization in the region. Temperature variations in West Greenland display an antiphased relationship to temperature changes in Ireland over centennial to millennial timescales, resembling the interannual to multidecadal temperature seesaw associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. ''
       <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/05/23/1101708108.abstract>

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Antogonisitc sloganeering snipped.

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive, off-topic posts or intentionally misleading comments and graphics or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
        
       Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion.  If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter, as no further warnings shall be given.

       [PS] Just for further clarity, simply repeating long-debunked myths, especially those dealt with in the main article, without providing supporting new evidence is sloganeering. At the moment, it seems you have simply skimmed (at best) the article rather than studying the arguments and source material, then launched in with already debunked arguments. If you are going to make any sensible contribution here, then spend some time understanding the evidence and science.

18715. J Doug Swallow at 01:48 AM on 10 August 2017
       Medieval Warm Period was warmer
       

        "[DB] One would think that in the 5 years since your last participation here that you'd have learned to comport your comments better with this venue's Comments Policy. Simply copy/pasting up a paper from years ago selected at seeming random with no cogent context of your own added is just sloganeering (snipped)."
       I became aware 5 years ago that unless a comment comported without a doubt with the message that you were trying to push, it would end up like this one that I sent your way.

       This is what I have found and if it doesn't meet your standards that is because you have no interest in discovering what the truth is if it contradicts your forgone, unsubstituted conclusions. It appears from your uninformative reason why my comment didn't "comport" to your very dodgy Comments Policy, that in your mind, when you say; "a paper from years ago", that you are now saying that valid scientific evidence backed up by the Earth Sciences department at Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, The American Geophysical Union & Harvard University has a shelf life and if it exceeds a certain time frame it is deemed invalid.

       After going over more of the comments I now see what type of comment "comports" to your rigorous standards.
       MrN9 at 00:23 AM on 26 April, 2015 "Glenn Tamblyn and DSL. What my point is that what is being discussed here is the wrong "myth". It's not about people thinking: "The Medieval Warm Period was warmer than current conditions. This means recent warming is not unusual and hence must be natural, not man-made." ... People think something more like... "Oh look, people who talk about global warming pick and choose the data which they tell us about, and omit that which does not support their view so as to make their own view sound more convincing". Exactly how warm or not the MWP may or may not have been is irrelevant. Most will never understand the complexities of the issues, this is about trust…"
       The wealth of information to be derived from the above comment is truly astounding, wouldn't you say, [DB]?
       Now for one of my comments that did not comport.
       SAO/NASA ADS Physics Abstract Service
       An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula
       Lu, Z.; Rickaby, R. E.; Kennedy, H.; Pancost, R. D.; Shaw, S.; Lennie, A. R.; Wellner, J. S.; Anderson, J. B.
       That this report has Affiliation with (I will not show the long list of scientific organizations affiliated with this study, Skeptical Science, for obvious reasons, is not mentioned)
       Publication Date: 12/2011
       "Our interpretation, based on ikaite isotopes, provides additional qualitative evidence that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were extended to the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Peninsula."
       http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPP51A1819L
       This ikaite record qualitatively supports that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age extended to the Antarctic Peninsula.
       <http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012E%26PSL.325..108L>

       I'm not sure if in this case who [DB] is. I am guessing that it is doug_bostrom. I like it in these kinds of discussions when people have enough confidence in their believes to use their real names.

        

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Moderation complaint & sloaganeering snipped.

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site. 
        
       Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion.  If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

18716. John S at 01:44 AM on 10 August 2017
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: If I just explain the facts, they'll get it, right?
       

       whereas having being explained the science may not be sufficient it may nevertheless be necessary because I've heard many say something like "no-one has ever given me any evidence that  .." and that could well be true .. there is a lot about climate change in the media but rarely do you see a simple explanation along the lines of the videos at How Global Warming Workshttps://gse.berkeley.edu/less-minute which I used to good effect (I think) in my Toastmasters Club 

18717. michael sweet at 01:20 AM on 10 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       Tom13,

       All the IPCC projections are completely reasonable.  The recently released US climate assessment (draft) says that scientists (that is the IPCC) are more likely to underestimate warming than to overestimate it.  Trump is trying to get other countries to use more oil.  That cannot help reduce CO2 emissions.   CO2 concentrations are currently a little higher than the 8.5 scenario.  The 4.5 scenario is looking like a best case analysis. 

       To answer your question: A projected temperature that relies on an IPCC projection is by defination a reasonable estimate.  In contrast, a posting on the internet usupported by any evidence is unreasonable. 

       You are denying the reality of the situation.  You have provided no data to support your wild claims (as usual).  It is sloganeering to repeat arguments without any supporting evidence.

18718. Tom13 at 22:49 PM on 9 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       #11 Michael - you post the graph from rcp 8.5 in support of the defense of a rate of warming 2x (or more ) than the current rate of warming.  

       Isnt rcp 4.5 far more reasonable and likely projection.  Rcp 8.5 is the ICcp high end assumption which has its share of problematic assumptions, population growth on the high end, increased use of coal, virtually no technological advances, etc, all of which are contrary to global trends.

       Back to my original question 

       Are either of those projected rates of warming even close to a reasonable estimate."

       Try to answer without resorting to the most unlikey iccp projection

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Inflammatory tone snipped.

18719. Tom13 at 22:36 PM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       First - thanks to Ian above for providing an actual link to the paper.  (vs guardian article). With access to the actual paper, we can review the assumptions/computations etc in the study.

       From #13 Stevecarson

       William,

       I've already given this number, back in comment 6. It's from the paper. Globally $18bn, or 0.4% of the headline number.

       I have to go with William on this one - doing a word search for subsidy, subsidies, direct, direct subsidies, etc,  The paper never identifies a direct subsidy, nor does it quantify any direct subsidy nor does provide any data to support the computation of the direct subsidy[ies] the study claims the fossil fuel industry receives.

18720. stevecarsonr at 21:08 PM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       William,

       I've already given this number, back in comment 6. It's from the paper. Globally $18bn, or 0.4% of the headline number.

18721. william5331 at 19:32 PM on 9 August 2017
       Underground magma triggered Earth’s worst mass extinction with greenhouse gases
       

       This would seem to fit with the dinosaur extinction event.  Apparently the asteroid crashed through layers of limestone and gypsum which not only released Carbon dioxide but oxides of sulphur which would have shaded the earth for a while adding a double whammy.  Once more the effect of a primary cause effecting carbon rich layers.

18722. william5331 at 19:15 PM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       Ignoring for the moment externalities, I wonder what the direct subsidies are.  That is to say tax relief direct grants and allowances and so forth.  Attacking these would be a good way to start as they are more blatant and easier to identify.  Externalities such as health costs would come next.  A shame to spread the effort too thinly.  Find one direct subsidy and go for that one.

18723. nigelj at 12:46 PM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       J Doug Swallow @9

       The five trillion is for global subsidies, not just America. America spends about one trillion anually on energy in total, so it could not possibly be for america.

       Fossil fuels in America  get various subsidies including direct subsidies not apparent in your chart. Renewable energy is subsidised in America with some sort of tax rebate scheme. Yes Warren Buffet will invest in whatevers profitable. Thats what investors do, so theres nothing negative in him doing this, its supply and demand at work.

       Just imagine if oil and coal subsidies were spent to subsidise renewable energy. How much sensible that would be.

       In fact things have changed in America the last couple of years and wind power is almost the same cost as gas and coal even without subsidies as below.

       www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/us-energy-secretary-solar-and-wind-energy-cost-competitive-without-subsidies.html

18724. michael sweet at 09:56 AM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       To those above who doubt that fossil fuels are subsidied as much as the OP claims:

       This Forbes article claims that 15,000 people in the USA and 500,000 are killed every year from coal pollution alone.  What is the vlaue of their lives?  That is a subsidy of the coal industry.  It costs $300-800 billion to treat the health issues caused coal (the hosptalizations of the people who eventually and the medical care of the people who survive).  These include lung issues from particulate pollution, lung issues from sulfate  aerosols, mercury poisoning, miners killed and many others. (I have seen lower estimates of health costs of only $100 billion per year elsewhere).  Metal roofs that last 40-50 years in Florida only last 15 years near coal burning power plants. 

       Virtually all of the freshwater lakes in the USA are polluted with mercury from coal plants.  This lowers the value of fishing tourist visits.  Coal pays nothing to the businesses it bankrupts from their pollution.  That is a subsidy to fossil fuels.  The list goes on and on if you read the reports.

       If you want to challenge the OP you need to cite a reference that supports your wild claims.  I note that the doubters have not cited a source of data to support their argument, they just argue from incredulity because they do not know the facts.  It appears to me that the people who are making those claims have not bothered to do thier homework and are only counting direct monetart subsidies when the OP clearly states that the majrity of subsidies are issues like pollution damage and health affects.  Any analysis that does not include the health cost of fossil fuel pollution is not a serious evaluation of the subsidy given to fossil fuels.

       How much is your life worth if you are one of the people who dies 10 years early from exposure to fossil fuel pollution?  I count my life as worth a lot more than the current value which is zero dollars.  Renewable energy does not have this issue, they are essentially non-polluting.

18725. J Doug Swallow at 09:32 AM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

        I'm not sure where John Abraham came up with this headline: "Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year"

       Table ES4. Fiscal year 2010 electricity production subsidies and support (million 2010 dollars) Share of Total Subsidies and Support Coal, 10%; Renewables, 55.3%
       "Direct expenditures accounted for 39 percent of total electricity-related subsidies in FY 2010 (Table ES4). These expenditures were mostly the result of the ARRA Section 1603 grant program, 84-percent of which went to wind generation." <http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/>
       This is why renewables are built at all: "The billionaire was even more explicit about his goal of reducing his company's tax payments. "I will do anything that is basically covered by the law to reduce Berkshire's tax rate," he said. "For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit." Warren Buffett <http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304831304579541782064848174>

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Always best to read the article before commenting. The third paragraph clearly states the source of the information contained in the article. The link embedded in the word "study" will take you to it.

       Sloganeering snipped. 

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

18726. nigelj at 07:31 AM on 9 August 2017
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: If I just explain the facts, they'll get it, right?
       

       Sweden has an interesting approach to resolving difficult policy debates, especially partisan political debates, and ideological clashes. As a society they have decided put the interests of children first. Then they select whatever policy is genuinely going to help the interests of children regardlers of whether the policy leans left or right. You are of course likely going to end up with a broad mix of policies in society as a whole some leaning right, some leaning left.

       With climate issues this idea naturally extends to the interests of future generations.

18727. nigelj at 07:19 AM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       To me the exact amount of subsidies misses the point. In my opinion there is simply no justification for subsides on fossil fuels, regardless of what type of subsidies or how much they are in total. Nobody can come up with a sensible justification. Even India is planning to remove oil subsidies.

       But if you are hung up on numbers, 5 trillion dollars would subsidise a lot of electric cars. If it was a $10,000 subsidy per car thats about half a billion electric cars. 

18728. nigelj at 06:57 AM on 9 August 2017
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: If I just explain the facts, they'll get it, right?
       

       Extremely good article, but I think you need both approaches. So try the science, then try other approaches as well if appropriate.

       Start with the science and see if it works, because in my experience some people may react defensively to the science, but they do go away and think about it, and sometimes come around to accepting the science. I know I found this website helpful in explaning some denialist myths. You cannot expect everyone to accept all new science at face value, as it does need some explaining, and we all have a natural sceptical streak to some extent, but rational sceptics do change position. We know this.

       Of course if you get a very political reaction, you may have to try another approach. Some people are hardened deniers, and they often seem to have some sort of vested interest or strong political ideology, or in some cases strong evangelical religious beliefs. I think you have to try to show them benefits of renewable energy and the other things in the article. Somehow we also need to show them climate science is not a threat to their beliefs, and this is easy enough with religious beliefs as Katharine points out. You can also help people who feel their jobs are threatened.

       But what do you do with people who have more of a strong political ideology, and a hardened dislike of environmental regulations, etc? For example libertarians and more extreme small government fiscal conservatives. We are faced with trying to change or modify their world view, which is hard work. Trying to find common ground and develop a personal connection can also be hard going sometimes.

       One thing that may help convince these people is to try to draw a line between where the private sector works very well for many, many things, and where the private sector fails requiring some form of environmental laws or taxes etc. In other words side step ideology, and show that there's solid economic and historical evidence that theres a place for both private sector markets and envionmental laws etc. This is very much my own personal view for what its worth. It probably wont convince them all, but it may convince some.

18729. Ian Roberts at 03:32 AM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       For Tom13, I found a copy (draft?) of the paper on the IMF website (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15105.pdf).

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Fixed link. Please learn to do this yourself with the link tool in the comments editor.

18730. stevecarsonr at 02:58 AM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       "..Producer subsidies are lumped into pre-tax subsidies but are relatively small ($17-$18 billion during 2011–15)."

18731. stevecarsonr at 02:53 AM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       Tom13,

       The paper says:

       "Producer subsidies arise when producers receive direct or indirect support (e.g., receiving prices above supply costs, pref- erential tax treatment, direct government budget transfers, paying input prices below supply costs) which increases prof- itability when this support is not passed forward into lower consumer prices (e.g., because prices are determined on world markets). For presentational purposes, we include producer subsidies in pre-tax subsidies, though they are very small in relative terms."

18732. J Doug Swallow at 01:34 AM on 9 August 2017
       Medieval Warm Period was warmer
       

       This report below is certainly more believable than what Skeptical Science puts forth when they claim that: "The Medieval Warm Period was not a global phenomenon. Warmer conditions were concentrated in certain regions."
       Earth and Planetary Science Letters
       Volumes 325–326, 1 April 2012, Pages 108–115
       An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula
       This ikaite record qualitatively supports that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age extended to the Antarctic Peninsula.
       Highlights
       ► Ikaite forms in a narrow and shallow zone. ► Natural crystal (in modern porewater) validates the fractionation factor from lab. ► Trends in ikaite δ18Ohydra and δ18OCaCO3 are comparable with other records. ► Ikaite record indicates that the influence of LIA and MWP reached the AP.
       <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12000659>

       Moderator Response:

       [DB]  Again, one would think that in the 5 years since your last participation here that you'd have learned to comport your comments better with this venue's Comments Policy.  Simply copy/pasting up a paper from years ago selected at seeming random with no cogent context of your own added is just sloganeering (snipped).

18733. J Doug Swallow at 01:31 AM on 9 August 2017
       Medieval Warm Period was warmer
       

        This report below is certainly more believable than what Skeptical Science puts forth when they claim that: "The Medieval Warm Period was not a global phenomenon. Warmer conditions were concentrated in certain regions."

       "The 2485-year temperature data used in this study are taken from reference [13]. This temperature series is not only representative of the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau, but also the vast area of central-northern China. It is also significantly correlated with seven other temperature series of the Northern Hemisphere [13]. It even has a teleconnection with series for middle-low latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere [15]. Therefore, the spatial representative of this temperature series is quite clear. Since a conservative negative exponential or linear regression is employed in the detrending process, most low-frequency signals are preserved in the chronology and can be used to detect the low-frequency components of climate change."
       http://www.agbjarn.blog.is/users/fa/agbjarn/files/tibet-2485_years.pdf

       Moderator Response:

       [DB]  One would think that in the 5 years since your last participation here that you'd have learned to comport your comments better with this venue's Comments Policy.  Simply copy/pasting up a paper from years ago selected at seeming random with no cogent context of your own added is just sloganeering (snipped).

18734. Tom13 at 01:27 AM on 9 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       From the 10th paragraph of this article - 

       Interested readers are directed to the paper for further details, but the results are what surprised me. Pre-tax (the narrow view of subsidies) subsidies amount to 0.7% of global GDP in 2011 and 2013. But the more appropriate definition of subsidies is much larger (8 times larger than the pre-tax subsidies). We are talking enormous values of 5.8% of global GDP in 2011, rising to 6.5% in 2013.

        

       The actual study is paywalled, which makes it difficult to ascertain the validity of conclusions of the study, including the mathematical computations, underlying assumptions, reasonableness, etc.  

       The article makes note that .7% of GNP are direct subsidies, while the remaining indirect subsidies are approx 5.8% / 6.5% of global GNP.  

       Assuming those numers are correct - how do you solve for that - By taxing the fossil fuel companies on profits they dont earn?

       Secondly, neither this article or the guardian article explain what direct subsidies the fossil fuel companies actually receive. The actual study may discuss that issue, but it is behind a paywall.  

18735. wili at 22:41 PM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       Something  for the next roundup?

       Government Report Finds Drastic Impact of Climate Change on U.S.

       www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/climate/climate-change-drastic-warming-trump.html

       WASHINGTON — The average temperature in the United States has risen rapidly and drastically since 1980, and recent decades have been the warmest of the past 1,500 years, according to a sweeping federal climate change report awaiting approval by the Trump administration.

       The draft report by scientists from 13 federal agencies, which has not yet been made public, concludes that Americans are feeling the effects of climate change right now. It directly contradicts claims by President Trump and members of his cabinet who say that the human contribution to climate change is uncertain and that the ability to predict the effects is limited.
       ---
       One government scientist who worked on the report, and who spoke to The Times on the condition of anonymity, said he and others were concerned that it would be suppressed.
       ---
       The Environmental Protection Agency is one of 13 agencies that must approve the report by Sunday. The agency’s administrator, Scott Pruitt, has said he does not believe that carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming.

       “It’s a fraught situation,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geoscience and international affairs at Princeton University who was not involved in the study. “This is the first case in which an analysis of climate change of this scope has come up in the Trump administration, and scientists will be watching very carefully to see how they handle it.”

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] I posted a link to the article on the SkS Facebook page yesterday. It, and other follow-up articles about the draft report, will be included in the next Weekly News Roundup. Thank you for your suggestion.

18736. wideEyedPupil at 18:38 PM on 8 August 2017
       Animal agriculture and eating meat are the biggest causes of global warming
       

       @Tom Curtis, almost all land clearing (and cyclical clearing) in Australia is for grazing ruminent livestock, themselves a huge emissions source. In nations where logging occurs (I'm thinking Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil,…) the logging is just a more profitable way to clear the land than burning it off. If it was most cost effective to burn it off then they'd do that, they often do both in Indonesia and the fires are so vast the smoke travels to other countries and creates air quality health impacts. They are clearing the land for livestock principlaly in Sth American amazon region and crops to feed their livestock (like soy beans). In SE Asia they're often clearing for vast palm oil plantations. It's all about agricuture, if it ewas about logging timber they'd be harvesting it sustaniably and returning logged areas to forest production. They aren't.

18737. wideEyedPupil at 18:32 PM on 8 August 2017
       Animal agriculture and eating meat are the biggest causes of global warming
       

       The amount of agricutural land devoted to fruit and vegetables globally is trivially small compared with the vast domains of rangelands for grazing and to a much lesser extent, cropping areas.

18738. wideEyedPupil at 18:03 PM on 8 August 2017
       Animal agriculture and eating meat are the biggest causes of global warming
       

       " For example the U.S is already unable to produce enough fruits and veggies to feed its citizens and relies on other countries as a supplement.."

       This is a ridiculous assertion. The single greatest reason USA imports fruit and vegetables is cost. Paying workers in Sth American nations $1 a day rather than US workers $12 an hour or whatever minimum wage is in USA today (although many workers in southern states are migrant workers from Mexico who are paid less than minimum wage). In Australia orchardists are regualrly removing fruit orchards when canneries are closing, if demand for their fruit and vege went up, production would go up. Meanwhile livestock production is subsidised by way of no price on the extensive emissions, over access to waterways and so on.

18739. Riduna at 14:29 PM on 8 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       Australian taxpayers get slugged $1.8bn/year, every year, all of which goes to subsidise production of coal, rather than pay-off the burgeoning national debt. The Federal government does not hesitate to spend lavishly and grant tax concessions to ensure that Australia remains the worlds largest coal exporter.

       Prime Minister Turnbull and his Energy Minister, Josh Friedenberg call for greater domestic use of coal to meet the nations demand for energy, despite the fact that it impairs the health and kills miners, seriously pollutes the atmosphere accelerating global warming and is the major cause of climate change, destined to kill the Great Barrier Reef - and Queensland’s tourist industry.

       Money paid to subsidise coal production could be put to better use: reducing national debt, spending more on health and education, or horror of horrors, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But neither government or coal industry show any interest in measures not aimed at sustaining the growth and durability of coal production. They will rue the day!

18740. bozzza at 14:09 PM on 8 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       Jevons Paradox is written generally: that means the voting consumer has the resources available to win this fight!

       Where there's a will there's a way: it was Arnold Schwarzenegger (Though he probably wasn't the first) that said, "The people lead, governments follow!"

       We all have the power to demand.... (..supply is just the other side of the coin.)

18741. nigelj at 12:41 PM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       Driving By @13, well ok he had a point,  but nobody claimed more hot days would make Dallas 'uninhabitable'. So big strawman!

       But I agree with your other comments, more record days will add to air conditioning costs, etc. I would add it could lead to more heat related deaths in the elderly and frail.Of course this is Dallas, and so its not massively severe, but the same trend will be much more damaging in places like India and Africa.

       And its about economics. These things all add up to extra  costs, and add to other impacts of climate change like sea level rise and your disruption to existing farming patterns. Adapatation to climate change will have a big price, from what I have read, and its money that could be better spent elsewhere on alleviating poverty etc or science research.

18742. DrivingBy at 12:08 PM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       NigelJ — Tom13 does have a point which wasn't clearly expressed: Dallas managed to survive a record or year or two with many days over 105 previously, so the new average doesn't mean the city suddenly becomes uninhabitable. For a Northerner who expects to be outside mid-day during the summer, it's uninhabitable right now!

        What I think he missed is that the record years in the 2040s will be even hotter. Outdoor work will have to be scheduled with a mid-day break, or clumsy cooling methods, roofs will have to be white or grass-covered, etc etc. But the city won't shut down - people averse to heat avoid it already, whoever lives there is OK with blazing sun and common 100F summer days. 

       More significant may be when farmland reaches a temp that causes existing crops to slow their growth and for evaporation to create severe wet/dry cycles.   We're not ready to change the whole grain belt over to whatever heat-resistant crops exist, those probably won't be what people and animals want/need to eat. 

18743. nigelj at 07:10 AM on 8 August 2017
       Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
       

       Well said. Government (tax payer) subsising of producers doesnt make economic sense. The fossil fuel industry is not some new industry needing help to get started, its generally an established and generally strong industry so hardly needs subsidies.

       This is obviously pandering to powerful lobby groups with political influence, and a gullible public scared to say enough is enough. It's certainlly not free market capitalism and self reliance, more a form of back door socialism for corporates and the well connected.

       Keeping prices artifically low distorts the market and is just a complex money go round, and over encourages consumption. It would be better to just to give direct government income support to poor people for them to spend on essential basics. This is more transparent, and doesn't create awful problems like in Venezuela where cheap petrol leads to people sneaking across the border to buy the petrol in bulk.

18744. nigelj at 06:36 AM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
       

       The whole animation timing thing raises the issue is slowing things down to highlight a particular period a clarification or potential bias or manipulation? Hard to say, and people probably will never agree especially the climate denialists.

       I like Pauls suggestion. Labelling the graph as time isn't linear is a very good way of resolving the issue. Nobody can claim deceit then.

18745. nigelj at 06:33 AM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
       

       MA Rodger @12

       Yes it clearly does slow down from quite early on now that you  have measured it. Interesting because I thought it might be slowing from about 1950 or before, I but wasn't sure. 1980 was when I felt certain. I suppose this is just how my visual perception works. 

       I felt the designer of the animation might have been trying to highlight the "modern" post 1970s warming period as Tom pointed out, and also perhaps the regional differences in rates recently, with all the red ink towards europe and asia.

18746. nigelj at 06:14 AM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       Tom13 @8, yes true the article used the example of Dallas to make its point on possible future trends, just so it had some real world examples to talk about. However you miss my point. As was pointed in response to your first post, you can't take one  year of 1980 and draw conclusions, as the weather that year could be very non typical, then you go and do the exact same thing and pick this year, which appears to have unusually few record setting days. So your starting point was deceptive. These things need wider data over several years to try to find the average or typical pattern for the year. Thats all I'm saying.

       Regarding future temperature projections I can only completely agree with comments  by M Sweet. You cannot just project the recent temperature trend forward. You have to look at IPCC predictions and how that may work out for Dallas. Therefore their expectations of 28 record setting days is not unrealistic.

       In some ways the original article is frustrating by focussing in on specific cities because we cannot be so absolutely 100% certain about specific cities. I think the pertinent thing is global average temperatures are increasing, and will increase further, and are expected to accelerate. This will not have precisely uniform affects and its hard to be certain about specific locations due to regional climate factors. But its highly likely Dallas will at least see a lot more very hot days by end of century, whatever the exact number is.

18747. Paul D at 04:00 AM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
       

       Tom@11

       "I am not so certain the criticism is. First, it is not the case that strictly linear scales are used on all graphs. Log or exponential scales are quite normal in scientific use."

       True, but such graphs should be clearly marked. The animation should indicate that the time base isn't linear.

18748. michael sweet at 03:11 AM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       Tom13,

       This is not the exact graph I referenced above but section (a) has the same information (source IPCC AR5):

       

18749. michael sweet at 03:00 AM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       Tom13,

       Since CO2 pollution has dramatically increased over the past few decades why would anyone expect the rate of warming to stay the same as it was when pollution rates were much lower?

       "Are either of those projected rates of warming even close to a reasonable estimate."

       The  rate of warming is expected to increase in the future, especially if nothing is done to reduce emissions.  According to the IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers the expected global warming by 2100 is 4C (page 11) for RPC 8.5 (note the high end of the projection is 5.5C).  You are making an argument from incredulity because you have not read the background information.  Just because you do not know what the projections are does not mean that they are not reasonable.  I note that you have not cited a single link to support your argument.  I have provided links to support my claims.

       If you want to post calculations to a scientific blog like SkS it is your responsibility to read the background material.  It is not my responsibiity to spoon feed you material that everyone knows.  Arguments from incredulity are not convincing.  Reading the SPM linked above would be a good start.

       The projections of future warming are shocking!!  Imagine living in Dallas when the temperature is 10F warmer!  It was only about 2F warmer in 2011.  Farmers sold off most of their herds and millions of trees died.  Children born today will be alive in 2100.  Action needs to be taken immediately to prevent this catastrophe.   

18750. John Hartz at 00:06 AM on 8 August 2017
       2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #31
       

       New Zeland's Natonal Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) just releaesed the results of an analysis similar to that conducted by Climate Central as described in the OP's Story of the Week.

       From the NWIS news release...

       Wellington city will have warmer autumns, almost a month of days over 25°C and up to 10 per cent more winter rain by 2090, according to a new NIWA climate report.

       The Climate Change Report for Wellington Region has just been released that shows specific weather changes for the capital, Kapiti Coast, Hutt Valley and Wairarapa for the first time.

       One of the most startling projections shows an increase for Wellington city from six hot days (over 25°C) a year now to 26 days by 2090. In the Wairarapa, that figure goes from 24 days now, to 94 in just over 70 years.

       Wellington will get significantly warmer, new climate change report shows, NWIS News Release, Aug 7, 2017

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