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nigelj at 08:08 AM on 8 July 2017Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world
What an extremely impressive map. One nit pick, some of the explanations towards Australia are partly hidden under the key.
We have the majority of evidence pointing to the human fingerprint, but it's interesting that a few studies find otherwise. This shows the lack of the great conspiracy theory the denialists talk about, but will be utterly lost on them.
I have heard sceptics say "theres no evidence climate change caused this event" which may be true, but no matter how many times you explain climate change made the events more probable, or more numerous or more severe, it fails to shift their views. They just repeat their mantra. It's like they dont register what we say.
Maybe their mind literally switches off to anything that contradicts their world view, or vested interests etc, and they aren't even aware this mind filtering is happening. It could be a form af sensory gating.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/your-hidden-censor-what-your-mind-will-not-let-you-see/
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ubrew12 at 07:38 AM on 8 July 2017Climate's changed before
About a month ago, I took the Pages-2k graph (last 2000 years of global temperature using tree ring proxies) and roughly calculated the temperature change per century, last 20 centuries, and the standard deviation in this metric for this 2000 year period. I then took 5-century intervals from the Marcott graph (last 11,000 years, ocean sediment data), calculated the average temperature change per century (over 5 centuries), and imposed the standard deviation I'd gotten from Pages-2k to each of these to calculate my best estimate of the temperature change per century for the 100 centuries prior to Christs birth. I then applied this same technique to the Shakun graph (last 20,000 years). However, in that case I used 10-century intervals to get the average temperature change per century and imposed the Pages-2k standard deviation upon that average to get 10 data points representing the likely variance over them. At the end of all this activity, I had 219 data points representing the likely temperature change per century for the 220 centuries (22,000 years) before the 20th century. The average was 0.014 C/century, the standard deviation was 0.077 C/century, so the 3-sigma point is 0.24 C/century. Warming in the 20th century was 0.78 C/century. To me this proves, statistically, that modern warming is nothing like anything that has occurred in the previous 22,000 years. Its about 3 times what would be considered extremely unusual from the natural record. And warming in the last 25 years, if it continues, is about 3 times that again (2.2 C/century). My question is: does anybody know where this kind of analysis has been performed in the Science record? I'm sure it has, and to a much greater degree. I just want to know where to find it so I can refer to it whenever somebody claims 'Its all natural'.
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nigelj at 07:26 AM on 8 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
I agree the reason for temperature adjustments is all there if you look. I have just done some reading on it myself, and put some links on the Republican Party article. If I can find this material in about one minute, sceptics have no excuse to be ignorant. The explanations are utterly compelling, and take little time to read. I have never even seen a sceptic try to refute them, and instead they just nag away, creating confusion, never clarity.
But maybe Haze partly has a point that making mistakes and having to correct them is never a good look. So try and minimise them, and openly explain what went wrong. We should avoid getting too defensive.
Any human based system will make a few mistakes. But do a bit of reading, and you find the climate science process goes to extreme lengths to minimise mistakes, identify mistakes, and biased temperatures or faulty measuring equipment, and correct them. The result is the big picture is very reliable.
Sceptics like Jo Nova are nit picking, and relying on the fact most people dont have time to check the detail. Its a form of cynical manipulation, and is not genuine scepticism that confronts issues openly. It's crowd manipulation. It's not genuine scepticism in the honourable, traditional sense of the term. Proper scepticism has to operate within rational boundaries.
For decent, rational scepticism read "Skeptic, by Michael Shermer"
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HK at 06:43 AM on 8 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
Zeke Hausfather explains the corrections of the RSS TLT data here.
The satellites used by RSS and UAH are launched into so-called sun-synchronous orbits that cause them to pass over the same location at the same local time every day. This is achieved by letting the orbital plane rotate one degree per day in a counter clockwise direction as seen from above the North Pole. The problem is that the very minor atmospheric drag may slow them down by several hours over a few years if they don’t have some propulsion system to offset that.The chart below shows how much the local time when the satellites cross the equator from south to north has drifted over the years. Two of the satellites, NOAA-11 and 14, drifted 7 hours over a period of about 10 years, while the two European satellites METOP-A and B (still in use) have kept the time almost perfectly. BTW, these same satellites also measure other weather and climate parameters, including the distribution of Arctic sea ice.
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nigelj at 06:30 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
OPOF @29, what you say is true, but better critical thinking would help more people identify the economic, ethical and social villains you are talking about. The system requires good information to work optimally, and only critical thinking can preserve this.
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nigelj at 06:27 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Too@30, the second graph on your link page is for the history of Greenlands warming. It shows a strong warming in the so called minoan warm period, and an apparent weak warming in the so called modern warming period, according to their labels on the graph.
It is accurate, but incomplete, as it only shows temperatures to early last century. It is deceitful, or "Lies By Omission".
The full picture is here, and you can see although Greenland was very warm in the past, recent warming is more rapid. The recent instrumental record is grafted on in red.
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gws at 04:50 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Along a different tangent ... notice Rick Perry's body languarge in that video (hands, #10). It suggests that he (subconsciously) knows he is going to a place he is uncomfortable with.
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Daniel Bailey at 03:40 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
@too
Note that the next figure (Fig. 3) from your link is a complete fabrication/misrepresentation, as it uses Alley's GISP2 core data (last data point 1855), so it misses all the warming of the instrumental record.
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Daniel Bailey at 03:33 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
@too
"Is the graph accurate and what process causes these glacial/interglacial cycles?"
The graph uses "Present" as 1950, like all ice-core-derived products. Thus it purposefully truncates the warming post-1950.
For previous ice ages and why they happen, one of the best summaries of the sceince extent is Berger et al 2016: Interglacials of the last 800,000 years. This paper is a wealth of information, all presented in context. As such, it's no easy read, being 58 pages long (not counting supplemental data).
Concepts covered in the paper:
Ice Ages, Glacial and Interglacial phases (and the transitions into and out of them), Stadials and Interstadials
Forcings (precession, obliquity, eccentricity, insolation)
Isotopes (the ratios of water isotopes are an example of a strong temperature proxy; others exist)
Proxies (temperature, greenhouse gases, ice volume/sea level, marine sediments and corals, terrestrial/speleothems/cave data and ice core gases, etc.)
Marine Isotope StagesIce Age - A period where continental-sized ice sheets exist
Interglacials - loosely defined as the absence of Northern Hemisphere land-based ice sheets outside of Greenland and sea levels similar to those of today
Glacials - the time within the past 2 million+ years not found in an interglacial (lower sea levels and widespread continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere)
Stadials/Interstadials - generally referred to as much shorter intervals of time (still millennial-scale events themselves) found within glacial phases and within the transition from glacial to interglacial phases (stadials are colder periods and interstadials warmer; transitions between these can be very abrupt; a requirement for both is continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere outside of Greenland)
Terminations - the end of an icy glacial phase and the ensuing (relatively rapid) transition to an interglacial phase
Inceptions - the end of a warm interglacial and the slow slide into an icy glacial phase (slow compared to terminations)
Insolation - the warming from the sun received at the surface of the Earth, itself dependent upon the distance of the Earth from the sun, the time of year and the angle at which the sun's rays strike the Earth
Marine Isotope Stages (commonly referred to as MIS) - periods of warmth, as deduced by proxy records from marine sediments; MIS are numbered sequentially backwards from the present Holocene (MIS1) to earlier such.As a general note, conditions that existed during previous glacial and interglacial phases are not identical, for physical reasons. So while glacial phases were colder, with more ice and lower sea levels than interglacials, the amounts of land-based ice, the amount the sea levels dropped or rose were not identical in different glacial phases, nor were they in different interglacial phases. Why? Because those conditions present then were based on the above mentioned parameters, which all were somewhat different. But what DID occur was the sum of the physics extent at those times.
My main takeaways:
1. Human actions, by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, ensure that our climate will become warmer in the next century and remain warm for many millennia to come (pages 162 and 163 of the paper).
2. Terminations involve rapid, nonlinear, reactions of ice volume, CO2, and temperature to external astronomical forcing.
3. Glacial inception is a slower process involving a global sequence of changes.
4. Interglacials have been typically 10–30 thousand years long.
5. The slow response of ice sheets mean that sea level highstands (the period of maximum sea level rise experienced in an interglacial) may be attained later than the periods of peak forcing and peak warmth.
6. All ages referenced in the paper refer to 1950 as present.
7. Average dating uncertainties within the ice core records are several centuries to several millennia, +/-.
8. GHG concentrations can only be directly measured for the past 800,000 years from the ice core records; all others use different proxies to infer such or to infer temperatures/sea levels.
9. Due to ocean mixing times, a millennia is the minimum duration to measure the mean state of the global ocean.
10. The differences between the interglacials and today (and between the interglacials themselves) are very small between 60 degrees North and 60 degrees South; the differences are primarily found in the high latitudes/polar regions and expressed in high or low levels of land-based ice sheets (or the complete lack thereof).
11. The radiative forcing from GHGs found in interglacials with high levels of GHGs vs those interglacials with lower amounts (~280 ppm vs ~250 ppm for CO2) is about 1 W/m-2, driving a global temperature difference of about 1 degree C.
12. All interglacials were warm enough to lose most land-based ice sheets outside of Greenland in the Northern Hemisphere, with the warmest implying further ice sheet mass losses from Greenland and/or Antarctica.
13. There is strong evidence of higher sea levels (and lower levels of land-based ice sheet mass) during the previous interglacial (MIS 5) and MIS11.
14. The warmth of MIS5 is due to both higher levels of CO2 and insolation being high, whereas MIS11 (one of the warmest interglacials) was warm only because of high levels of CO2.
15. The duration of a termination of a glacial phase is 4,000-9,000 years, with CO2 jumping 50-100 ppm, more or less synchronously with Antarctic temperatures; CH4 makes its transitions within a few decades, toward the end of the CO2 rise (implying terrestrial emissions form peat bogs and wetlands).
16. Terminations generally only occur when a large ice volume/low sea level has been reached (meaning that a nonlinear tendency towards instability is present in the ice sheets).
17. The onset of the last 4 interglacials occurred during the period during which Northern Hemisphere daily summer insolation is rising.
18. The primary source for Co2 injection into the atmosphere during terminations is the deep oceans, with the primary locations for such being the Southern Ocean.
19. Stadial/interstadial seesawing can produce an "overshoot" in Antarctic temperatures, possibly contributing to complete collapses and disintegrations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (MIS 5e, 9e and 11c), and a rapid pulse injection of CO2 released form the Southern Ocean.
20. No stadial/interstadials have occurred during interglacials, which are less variable than glacial phases; basically, the climate is pretty variable ordinarily, but that variability is suppressed during interglacials (during which variability is of centennial-to-millennial durations).
21. Holocene climate (the last 12,000 years) is preserved in proxy records of decadal scale temporal resolution. Such are also emerging for MIS5 and earlier interglacials.
22. There is some evidence of an anthropogenic contribution to both the warmth and higher CO2 levels of the Holocene (MIS1); i.e., the Ruddiman Hypothesis.
23. By 2100, global temperatures will exceed those during all of the Holocene (MIS1), under all emissions scenarios.
24. Summer temperatures appears to be the most important driver of glacial inception.
25. Glacial inception is unlikely to happen within the next approximate 50,000 years (when the next strong drop in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation occurs) if either atmospheric CO2 concentration remains above 300ppm or cumulative carbon emissions exceed 1,000 Pg C; only for an atmospheric CO2 content below the preindustrial level may a glaciation occur within the next 10,000 years.
Summary: Given the continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions, glacial inception is very unlikely to occur in the next 50,000 years, because the timescale for CO2 and temperature reduction toward unperturbed values in the absence of active removal is very long, and only weak precessional forcing occurs in the next two precessional cycles.
Berger et al 2016 - Interglacials of the last 800,000years (open access)
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Tom Curtis at 03:00 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
too @30, this graph from Hansen shows the relative change in forcing between the preindustrial values and the Last Glacial Maximum, and would be fairly representative for most glacial cycles:
As ubrew12 notes, the trigger for the change in ice sheet extent (the primary driver of albedo changes) and GHG concentrations are changes in orbital parameters that result in near zero change in overall forcing, but significant changes in particularly sensitive regions such as the North Atlantic.
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michael sweet at 02:51 AM on 8 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
Tom,
It is always interesting to see you find exactly the information that is being asked for. Haze asks why the BOM cannot exactly say how they record the data and you provide a link to their methods. Other readers should note that it is very time consuming to find these references and thank you for your diligence. Hopefully casual readers will realize that scientific methods are carefully documented and skeptic claims that changes are made without reasons are false.
It is impossible for the OBM to satisfy deniers like Marohassy and JoNova. They both know what the BOM does and they ignore those protocols for their own reasons.
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ubrew12 at 02:42 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
too@30 asks "what process causes these glacial/interglacial cycles?" Carbon Dioxide causes them. They are touched off by orbital changes, but since Earth is a sphere there's no 'side' it can point toward the Sun that should automatically cause more warming than any other 'side'. When the Southern hemisphere, which is mostly ocean, is pointed toward the Sun, it vents more CO2 from the Southern Ocean, and this causes the Northern Hemisphere to melt its ice sheets despite the fact that its getting less sunlight overall. SkepticalScience talks about this in 'myth 12: CO2 lags temperature'. Also, potholer54 did a good video explaining this. Google "potholer54 The "800 year lag" unravelled" to find it.
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too at 00:51 AM on 8 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
That article did prompt me to dig a little further. I found the second graph on this page rather interesting and was wondering what other peoples thoughts were on it.
http://climate4you.com/GlobalTemperatures.htm#An overview to get things into perspective
It's the Temp Anomaly (deg C) versus Years BP graphic.
Is the graph accurate and what process causes these glacial/interglacial cycles?
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johnlhh at 23:51 PM on 7 July 2017Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
The whole reason is that CO2 is the GHG that we can do something about. Even if not the main cause. The discussion is entertainment.
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Tom Curtis at 22:22 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
Haze @22, so you are suggesting that BOM should make statements such as:
"The standard scientific practice is to detect potential artificial jumps by comparing data from the station of interest (the candidate station) with data from other nearby stations where the suspected artificial jump is absent (reference stations). If there is an artificial jump in the data, this will be reflected in the candidate station warming or cooling relative to other surrounding stations.
This method of detection avoids falsely identifying actual climatic shifts and natural variability (such as that associated with the 1997–98 El Niño) as spurious artefacts in the data. The comparison with neighbours also serves the valuable purpose of largely rendering the test data free of trends."
(Full explanation here under question 5)
Or perhaps this on the cutoffs:
"3. Internal consistency of METAR and maximum/minimum temperature data
This check flagged data violating either of the following:
•Maximum temperature 4°C or more above the highest METAR temperature of the day, providing that there was no point during the day when there were more than 70 minutes between METAR temperatures.
•Maximum temperature 1°C or more below the highest METAR temperature of the day. (The tolerance on this test was used because many METAR temperatures, particularly manually observed ones, are only archived to the nearest whole degree.)Equivalent criteria were used for daily minimum temperatures."
(From here, which has a link to it here. METARS are meteorological reports produced for aviation on a regular basis through the day.)
The fact is that BOM has taken the time to detail its methods, their justification, and the relative rate of errors in original observations (" The error rate in temperature observations is low – experience with operational quality control procedures at the Bureau of Meteorology in
recent years suggests that it is in the order of a few tenths of one per cent – but such a rate still equates to the potential for several tens of thousands of errors in a data set of the size of ACORN-SAT"). These detailed explanations are typically ignored by AGW "skeptics", as also by the general public. It is certainly not the practise of the general public, having read some bombshell "revelation" by Marohassy, to carefully read the BOM site conjuring up a twitter storm.This, then, shows the fundamental problem of the idea that "perception is reality". The perception is artfully generated by people with an intention to distort the data (ie, Marohassy and JoNova etc). They are feeding an uncritical audience who lap it up because it feeds their prejudices. In that context, no amount of careful explanation by BOM will change the perception for that audience because they are not listening. Marohassy has been shown to be wrong on Australian temperature data repeatedly, but creates no perception problem for her because her audience does not care.
In that context, expecting BOM to operate on managing perceptions is an impossible task. What they need to do is concentrate on the science so that anybody who actually thinks critically about the issue can see they are doing a very good job. I mean, think about it. Consider the thousands of observations BOM makes every day, then ask yourself, how many imagined problems have those "skeptics" actually found. Even if all were real problems, the result is a very high accuracy rate.
The further solution is for people to stop giving others a pass on lazy, motivated reasoning. If somebody feeds you a Marohassy article, call them out for not fact checking, for the (often) implicit conspiracy theory they are accepting, and for their uncritical thinking. This should be particularly the case if the person involved is in a position of relative authority (journalist, MP, etc). There is no excuse for spreading ignorance and falsehoods, and that they are doing it second hand only makes them more foolish.
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Haze at 20:53 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
"So what do you propose that BoM do differently?" In this case to allay suspicion, state explicitly what the cut off points for automatic temperature adjustments are, how they are determined, what is the range around the cut off point and what form does human intervention take. Surely it wouldn't be too difficult to say (for example only) that automatic adjustments occur when a recorded temperature measurement is 1-2 C above the highest or lowest temperature rcorded at the particular station, that human intervention is based on assessment of several factors and giv e examples And as for appeasing deniers, politicians who are any good, spend considerable time and energy to sell their message to the public. If the BoM thinks that that is not their role, well, fair enough but spending, say, a day to put an explanation on their web site doesn't seem a huge ask to ensure corrections made are entirely undedrstandable and above all, transparent.
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scaddenp at 20:30 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
So what do you propose that BoM do differently? Not put QC controls on data because idiot deniers will misrepresent it? Guess what, BoM is actually trying to do their job with as much precision and care as budgets allow. Appeasing deniers that continue to invent, distort, misrepresent your actions because they are wedded to the idea that global warming is the invention of a global comspiracy of scientists is not their job.
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Haze at 19:54 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
You clearly are not au fait with the saying "perception is reality" The point I am trying, very badly it seems, to make is that to those who seize on anything that reinforces their prejudices, a report showing a BoM temperature was altered upward and then, after attention was drawn to the alteration, changed back to the original, reinforces their belief that temperatures are adjusted to fit the "Climate Change scam". And your comment "That is, unless your real "concern", as in the case of Jo Nova, is neither meteorology nor climate science but rather something else entirely" is a typical example of shooting the messenger. My "concern" as you put it, is, in fact, trying to show that actions by the BoM such as those reported by Jennifer Marohasy and picked up by Jo Nova are meat and drink to those who deny or who are sceptical about, the role of humans in Climate Change
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jgnfld at 18:57 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
@Haze...
Your "concerns" are noted.
As for your concern that this could have muddied the climatological record, did you know this station is not even part of the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network
– Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) dataset? You are arguing that a .4C difference in one value at one location that is not even used in climate analysis in the first place somehow introduces doubt in the whole science. That's a real denier stretch. Even if this station was part of the climate record this value if not edited would change the Australian monthly reported value about .0001C. Values are not reported to 4 decimal places as no one would make the claim the aggregated values are accurate to that level, so it would not affect the record at all.Have you ever dealt with a high quality national- or global-sized database? Those who do have a huge number of real concerns all designed to keep the error rate as low as possible. See the various tabs at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/ for a detailed description of all these issues and how they are dealt with.
Their concerns are much different from those reporting on daily values in daily meteorological forecasts and reporting as is the case here where .4C at one time at one locale is absolutely trivial. That is, unless your real "concern", as in the case of Jo Nova, is neither meteorology nor climate science but rather something else entirely.
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bozzza at 18:10 PM on 7 July 2017Planet Hacks: Flying
@4,
Ger, may I ask how you come to that assertion?
<...feels a Richard Branson moment coming on!>
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bozzza at 17:48 PM on 7 July 2017Planet Hacks: Flying
Does that mean there is a business case for cheaper flights at night?
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Haze at 16:10 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
@ 17 Yes I did look at the web site and although I read "The large volume of data associated with the more frequent observations (such as one minute data) limits the quality control of these observations to automatic processes, whereas some human interaction is involved in quality controlling maximum and minimum temperature data" I didn't see any reference to what the human interaction was nor were minimum and maximum cut off points and their range for automatic temperature quality control mentioned. It is these to which I was referring. As I noted, BoM did change the temperature from the -10.0C cut off that had previously been used to -10.4C. The inference that could be drawn, particularly by those receptive to such inferences, is that the BoM would not have reversed the initial change had it not been noted by others
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:25 PM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
nigelj@27,
My concern is deeper than critical thinking. Why don't the supposedly advanced societies raise the vast majority of their members to be 'moved by rational consideration of distant motives'? Why do they fail to raise responsible considerate adults?
The best explanation I have is that those who want to get away with the easier/lazier, less responsible, less considerate behaviour would struggle to be winners in such a society.
And once a few of those types get away with their undeserved competitive advantage others are eager to follow the unacceptable examples.
As more people focus on believing whatever they want to excuse what they want to get away with the society devolves to the point where the callous greedy and the intolerant can actually win popularity contests by the easy appeals to tempt people to try to benefit form being greedier and less tolerant (far easier than getting people to be moved by the rational consideration of distant motives). And if things are allowed to degenerate far enough the most abusive and aggressive among them can win the Presidency and the unfit for Leadership likes of that 'Winner' can be appointed to leadership roles by that undeniably undeserving President.
And the fuel for all of this is the creation of unsustainable and undeserved perceptions of prosperity and opportunity by over-development of the economy in the wrong direction (unsustainable and damaging development).
A main demand seems to be that people will change as long as the change is an improvement on their current developed perception of prosperity and opportunity (or fond regional memories of the prosperity of past-times before an unsustainable way of living came to its inevitable and deserved end).
Trying to get people to understand climate science also requires many of them to understand the unacceptability and unsustainability of their perceptions of personal prosperity and opportunity. And it requires many wealthy powerful people to accept that they deserve to lose the economic gambles they made.
A critical thinker is not immune to the powerful temptation of personal Winning. In fact, a critical thinker can choose to behave less acceptably and be 'very smart' about how they behave unacceptably.
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scaddenp at 15:05 PM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
ubrew - models dont put ENSO/PDO etc into model at all. These are emergent features from running the physics. Its just that because they are essentially chaotic, each different model run produces a completely different wiggle.
I not sure about the subtely lost - the deniers writing up about perceived model/obs mismatches have to get the data in first place and publications very much emphasize what models predict and dont. If someone wont read your text, how are you supposed to communicate?
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scaddenp at 14:56 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
"What is the point is that the use of these filters and their set points have not been generally disclosed."
Hmm, so on the BOM page for Observation of Temperature we find under quality control:
"Once the data arrive at the Bureau they proceed through a number of quality control processes to detect errors, which includes checking for:
- Consistency in the observations (e.g. checking that the maximum is not less than the minimum);
- "Flat-lining", where values do not change for several days;
- Values close to or outside the normal climatological range of values for the time of year (which may be real or incorrect).
(Emphasis mine). If putting this on their web page isn't "general disclosed", what more do you expect? Took me seconds to find, did you bother to look? This is more faux outrage from Nova/Marohasy/deniers because they dont know what they are talking about.
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nigelj at 14:19 PM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Scaddnp @17, one of my obsessions is why people dont teach critical thinking better in schools. It's crazy that they don't. I agree maybe it's so people dont question religion too much.
Another additional reason might be so people dont question and analyse politicians or lawyers too cleverly, or authority in general. Never underestimate the power of lobby groups behind the scences influencing how schools do things. I suppose teachers might not like it either, but they have a duty to teach these skills in my view.
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nigelj at 14:13 PM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Tom Curtis @23, yes we have so many lies by omission in sceptical climate articles it's frustrating. Thank's for the link to the NASA explanation for adjustments.
Regarding these temperature adjustments. The graph on page 11 in the Wallace research study appears to be land temperatures, im not sure it doesn't say.The adjustments adjust temperatures upwards anyway. The research is critical of this, but doesnt really say why in any detail, just vague accusations.
This link below shows a broader picture, with graphs showing adjustments for all three: land, ocean and combined. It also gives explanations on why they are made.
variable-variability.blogspot.co.nz/2015/02/homogenization-adjustments-reduce-global-warming.html
It shows land adjusted upwards, oceans steeply downwards and the net result is land and ocean combined actually adjusted downwards slightly. Interesting that the Wallace study didn't bother to mention all that. You are obviously aware of all this, but its a great article with clear visuals, and may be of interest to us non experts.
This article is also interesting, and gives more detail on why adjustments are made
theconversation.com/why-scientists-adjust-temperature-records-and-how-you-can-too-36825
I cant see a problem. The links all provide good reasons for adjustments to compensate for various biases, and urban heat island effects, etc,etc. The fact that the land / ocean combined is actually downwards seems lost on the sceptics.
I hope Im interpreting it all right. But the graphs in my link are pretty clear and the sources legitimate.
Maybe mistakes are made in adjustments, but I would like to see proof and none is on offering. It seems unlikely that every adjustment would be an error, especially when you look at the checking process and how good it is. It seems unlikely there is a global conspiracy across countries to adjust things one way on land. This is in the region of nasa moon landings conspiracy nonsense. And if so why would they do the opposite for the oceans?
Like you say it doesn't remove the alleged "cycles" anyway.
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Haze at 14:07 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
Interesting that Jo Nova should be mentioned in posts 13 and 14. In actuality the original report came from Jennifer Marohasy and was picked up and put on line by Jo Nova. Personally, I prefer, whenever possible, to go to the original source rather than subsequent re-iterations as this approach removes the possibility of distortion on retelling. And @13 as for the "automatic recording of any value regardless of how nonsensical it is" it is obvious that, after challenge, the -10.4C was recorded and eventually pubished as such. This rather negates your point but raises the interesting questions as to why the filtering was reversed and why the -10.4C value was not entered in the CDO database.
And @14 your guess about filters on upper temperatures might well be right and my guess is Jo Nova has no problem with filters on low temperatures either. That really isn't the point. What is the point is that the use of these filters and their set points have not been generally disclosed. That they have not may introduce another element of distrust as to the veracity of the readings to those who are already distrustful of what they regard as manipulation of temperature data
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Tom Curtis at 13:46 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
Curiously the very low temperature on July 2 at Goulbourn Airport was not reflected by similarly low temperature at the nearby stations of Goulbourn TAFE College, Taralga Post Office, or Nerriga (the later two being very distinctly rural stations). Please note also that BOM preliminary (ie, non-audited) data for Goulbourn Airport show the -10.4 value, contrary to rocketeers claim. The curiously low values at the airport relative to nearby stations, however, suggest there may have been some factor causing spurious readings.
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ubrew12 at 13:44 PM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
scaddenp@24: none of that is a subtlety the deniers claim to understand. 'In the Eyes of the Law' (which are the same 'eyes' that would today be calling for a 'honest-broker' red team/blue team debate on climate change), the models didn't match reality, and therefore are wrong. You know, and I know (well, maybe I don't know, exactly), that a random-number-generator is probably used to determine if 'this year' is a La Nina/ a neutral/ or an El Nino. I presume that most models don't even include the PDO cycle, or knew that the ramp-up in Chinese and Indian coal usage, with associated aerosols covering the N Pacific and Indian Oceans, was imminent. But what is that saying, other than that they are friggin' models? Only a Lawyer is going to 'prosecute' a model for not matching the reality, because Only a Lawyer would think it should. And that is the actual problem. It doesn't matter that climate models should only match the 30-year trendline, because what matters is what the Koch-funded lawyers think. And that's where this battle must be fought, since lawyers, depending on who is paying, can argue themselves into thinking humans can breathe seawater. And if you disagree, and can't, then you must not be human.
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scaddenp at 13:22 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
My guess is that Jo Nova has no problem with limits on upper temperature filtering values the require checking.
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jgnfld at 12:48 PM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
@12...I guess you'd rather have automatic collecting instruments set to record any value regardless of how nonsensical it is without being further checked?
It's really not a conspiracy to set limits on data collection instruments such that suspect readings can be validated no matter how much Jo Nova thinks so.
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scaddenp at 12:14 PM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
ubrew - what model claim is to be able to predict is climate - ie 30 year weather averages and that they have skill in doing that. What they do not claim and have no skill at, is predicting decadal-level variation. Models have ESNO-like features but are incapable of predicting the size and timing of ENSO event even months out let alone years. On short term, ENSO dominates. On long term, you have climate and that is what models are attempting to predict. They should be evaluated only against the predictions for which they claim skill.
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Tom Curtis at 12:07 PM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
supak @14, nigelj @20, Wallace may be an obscure engineer, but D'Aleo is a meteorologist, and Idso is a climatologist. Both, however, are well known deniers, and Idso has earned a reputation for, for want of a better word, dishonesty when it comes to climate science. Idso does not appear to have any peer reviewed climate research since the early 2000s, but has been very productive of misleading denier "reports".
I have not gone right through the report but evidence in the early sections suggests this is just another in that sequence. In particular, they show a graph of various versions of the GISS temperature trends (Figure IV-1), the differences between which they attribute to "adjustments". The graph plots versions for 1980, 1987, 2007, 2010 and 2015. Wallace et al, however, feel no need to inform readers that the number of meteorological stations used increased from 1000 to 2200 between 1981 the 1980 (actually 1981) and 1987 versions, or that it increased to 7200 for the 1999 version. Nor do they feel any need to inform their readers that prior to 1995, no Sea Surface Temperature data was used, so that the data was for meteorological stations only. The very substantial changes in the temperature series between "1980" and 1987, and between 1987 and 2007 are probably influenced by these large increases in available data. Attributing the effect to "adjustments" without taking into account the change in available data is straightforwardly dishonest IMO.
Hardly any better is the "proof" that the "adjustments" eliminate a large "cyclical" component by comparison of global temperature data to US and North Atlantic temperature data. What is not noted is that the current versions of temperature data, even with all the adjustments, retain that large "cyclical" element in those areas. This can be seen clearly here, for example. (I should note that adjustments have increased the trend of the temperature data for the contiguous US, but has not eliminated the "cyclical" pattern. As a further note, I put "cyclical" in inverted commas because it is unclear to what extent the pattern is due to cyclical patterns in the climate, and to what extent it is due to changes in the aerosol forcing over time.)
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Haze at 11:05 AM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
rocketeer @11 "Tiny corrections" to data can be a source of controversy in the deabate about climate change. At Goulburn airport in New South Wales Australia, the recorded raw data for the minium temperature on Sunday July 2 2017 was -10.4C This temperature was however adjusted automatically to -10.0C . When the alteration was queried The Bureau of Meterology stated that temperatures below -10.0C are automatically moved to -10.0C. The BoM did change the -10.0C value to -10.4C in the Daily Weather Observations page for Goulborn Airport but left the value blank in the Climate Data Online database, the database used to calculate regional, national and global temperatures. Is this the way climate scientists should operate at the BoM? Are maximum temperature cut off points used? If so what are they? Reports such as this serve to fuel the sceptical side of the debate on climate change
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ubrew12 at 10:40 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
scaddenp@17 quoted NorrisM@6: "The models did not predict this and therefore are unreliable." Claiming that models didn't match 'reality' and therefore cannot be trusted, is like claiming that hands only have five fingers and therefore cannot be used. You have the benefit of intellectual purity. On the other 'hand', you are reduced to using your toes to grasp things.
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supak at 08:47 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Thanks, Nigel. If I ever convince PredictIt (run by your old NZ prediction market boys) to have some Intrade style prediction markets, I'll be sure to let these guys know so they can post about it!
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nigelj at 08:07 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Supak @14
I had a very quick scan through this research paper out of curiosity. James P Wallace is some obscure engineer. It doesnt appear to have been conducted by climate scientists. I dont claim any specific climate expertise, but I take an interest, and the paper was easy to follow.
The paper makes claims there are a lot of adjustments in temperature which accentuate a warming trend, that they consider suspicious and unwarrented. Maybe they are starting to see conspiracy theories. But they have to prove in meticulous detail why those adjustments would be invalid, and they just haven't really done this from what I can see.
The most interesting and useful graph is fig1v-1 on page 11 which shows global temperatures, and essentially the very early data and subsequent corrections. It is obvious that the raw data and corrected data since the 1970s is much the same. The real change has been early last century where data has actually been corrected downwards, which does lead to a stronger warming trend. But again the research paper haven't really demonstrated why that has been wrong.
Either calculate some linear trends, or just step back and just squint your eyes down. The overall linear trends comparing the unadjusted data and adjusted data are just simply not hugely different anyway. We are still left with a strong warming trend, in even the unadjusted data. And they havent really proven why any adjustments are wrong.
Now the research paper focuses a lot on America, but why would you do that? They are one country. Its better to look at global averages surely.
The research makes a peculiar claim that in America "cyclical trends" have been removed or ignored. But they are making an unsupported claim that these are cyclical trends. We cannot say they are, and in fact all the evidence of global warming says they aren't.
They also have a graph for my country NZ, which is really why I'm responding, and did have a quick read of the research. It got my attention obviously.
Firstly the graph looks slighly wrong to me. But let that pass. We have recently had a big debate and enquiry as to whether adjustments to our data were valid, led by a certain sceptical lobby group. The bottom line is this became a big issue, involving a court case taken by the sceptical group against NIWA, our climate agency that prepared the temperature record and adjustments. The judge threw the case out of court, on the basis that the sceptical group didn't present properly qualified experts, and other failings.
The temperature reconstructions were handed to an Australian climate agency to peer review, and they concluded there was nothing wrong with what NIWA had done and adjustments made were all in order. Refer link below:
www.nbr.co.nz/article/climate-change-deniers-shot-down-high-court-challenge-niwa-bd-127869
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supak at 08:03 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
@too
thanks. so, not peer reviewed, just updating an old non-peer reviewed paper?
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Doug_C at 07:53 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
"Many Republican policymakers will now admit, like Perry, that humans have “some impact” on the climate. That simply represents an acceptance of 150-year-old science. They don’t deserve much credit for finally accepting science that was first established when John Quincy Adams was president."
And the understanding that something was making the Earth warmer that it would otherwise be if it re-radiated directly the all energy back into space that it receives from the Sun goes way back to the late 1600s.
The Trump administration and many republicans are stuck way back in the Middle Ages on this topic when many people believed in succubi and succubuses and such things. Then again maybe they still believe in those things as well.
Taking an anti-information position can not and will not work in the real world.
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scaddenp at 07:37 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Contributing my 2c.
"The models did not predict this and therefore are unreliable." This is a rhetorical trick - a straw man. Models have no skill at decadal prediction, never claim to. If you look at individual model runs,
pauses are not uncommon.
Going back to early times, I think republicans had a visceral response to AGW from combination of sounds expensive/more govm't/less freedom/Al Gore is fat. From there it is look for reason to discount it. "Climategate" gave one. I would suspect 99% read the damaging attacks from denialists and believed them as confirming what they suspected without making any effort to seek out context despite climate scientists almost immediately providing that context. Investigations of course did look at context and exonerated the scientist but I doubt many read the detail, preferring to claim whitewash/cover up.
Why are US and particularly GOPers so locked in denial? More interesting question. To me it seems "critical thinking" skills are completely lost. I wonder whether there is a deep distrust in teaching critical thinking least it lead to atheism? The red/blue team idea seems to indicate a strong tendency to legal thought and process rather scientific.
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nigelj at 06:56 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
NorrisM @12
Thank's for clarifying your views on Trump and Pence. I was probably a little unfair to have suggested you were being disingenuous. It was just impatience on my part.
Just briefly on the issue, because I'm more interested in the red, blue team issue. I have the same reaction, Trump is scary, and Pence is too ultra conservative for me and particularly regarding religion. I could much more easily accept someone like Reagon.
I'm also not impressed with politicians who just make things up, and while they are literally all guilty of this, and none of us are perfect, Trump is in a class of his own.
When people cannot even agree on basic facts, theres nothing left but fighting and tension, or even all out civil war.
However I would prefer Pence by a small margin. I have real concerns that Trump could start an unnecessary war, and this is the greater concern for me living in NZ, as such things have global implications outside America, either militarily or econiomically, so Pence seems preferable from my own admittedly self interested perspective. But surely none of us want a war? Especially another war that literally doesn't make sense.
I have mixed feelings about Trump surviving the first term. It would be hard to impeach him, although moves have already started in earnest. The Russia thing is a mystery, and I would not like to guess an outcome. Perhaps Trump is teflon coated like certain other presidents, and it's common with shrewd politicians, but he is so mired in so many scandals that there's quite a high probability he might not survive the first term.
I doubt he will be re-elected unless his attitudes change. Republicans have no love for him. However much may depend on the economy, as this determines politicians fates more than anything.
I'm still very sceptical about your red blue team. I suppose if it produces more funding that would be nice. JW Rebel has raised some good points.
I would do as you yourself say in general, and "step back and look at the issues from the outside". The scientific community are unlikely to take the red blue team seriously as its just a smaller version of the IPCC, and set up by people with a very strong hatred of climate science, so hardlly objective people. The rest of the world will see it as a jacked up joke of a process, that may be biased and untrustworthy. The Australians would call it a sort of Kangaroo Court. So whatever the result, it is likely to have poor credibility. And who would be on the panel? It will be hard to find exemplary people, and if its staffed with numerous sceptics it will be considered a joke by the rest of the world.
I think Tom Curtis made a key point about sceptics. Yes, I would accept climate scientists like Michael Mann are not perfect. The last IPCC report had a mistake about Himilayan Glaciers, (one mistake in a document over a thousaand pages long, and not actually remotely crucial to basic climate theory). This stuff gets enormous publicity, but rarely does the so called "media" do a review of the numerous mistakes made by "sceptics" and believe me they are numerous.
So yes what might ultimately count most is the substance of someones ideas, we should never forget that, but one side in this debate has far more general credibility, and its not the sceptics. But the mass media are corporate owned, and have done a cynical and I believe deliberate job protecting the sceptics from any real scrutiny.
Sceptics are always sure they are right about everything and never admit uncertainty, ever. Have you noticed this? They do come across like lawyers. In comparison the IPCC meticulously documents varying levels of certainty across varying things.
Ultimately the sceptical campaign is a huge delaying tactic.
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Pol Knops at 06:48 AM on 7 July 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
About Olivine.
Indeed there is NO silver bullet. So we need to reduce CO2 emissions, but also remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
-1- So solely counteracting all of the global CO2 emissions with solely olivine is not a good idea.
-2- There is more and more research available. See i.e. this open access article from Francesc Montserrat (and myself ;-) )
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.6b05942Best regards,
Pol Knops
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too at 06:34 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
This seems to be an updated 2016 paper,
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/wwww-ths-rr-091716.pdf
Also, this seems to largely be related to these two topics:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/Satellite-record-vs-thermometers.htm
https://www.skepticalscience.com/surface-temperature-measurements.htm
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supak at 05:11 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
Anybody seen this paper I hear the deniers crowing about today?
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/ef-gast-data-research-report-062717.pdf
Wallace, Aleo, and Idso.
They're saying it's peer reviewed, yada yada. If anyone could point me to a debunking of this, I'd appreciate it.
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JWRebel at 04:28 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
1. The only honest climate "sceptics" are those who are rather unfamiliar with the material: people who out of some sort of misguided ideological loyalty to their group or tribe think that it is another left-wing progressive government ploy, out to destroy traditional values, work, and families. The rest are being disingenuous at best. Those who are taking a group position may be open to changing their minds under the right circumstances, probably not by learning about IR-bands and CO² molecules, but by appeals to their loyalty and conservatism which mandate not running down the farm before handing it over to their children.
The others are not well-intentioned or well-meaning people.2. Just because 97% of [climate] scientists have stated that anthropogenic climate change is real does not mean that the other 3% have good theories and other data sets showing the opposite. Far from it. That would mean there are a lot of bona fide scientists with reasonable alternate theories whose research and credentials are impeccable. That is not true: finding sceptics that you can parade around as "real" scientists is like searching for a needle in a hay stack. That is why you keep meeting the same very small handful of star-status sceptics, none of whom are close to producing some synthesis of theoretical grounds on why the data has not been interpreted correctly and can be better explained by their alternative.
3. Staffing a red team (Richard Muller is no longer a candidate) with qualified specialists is therefore pretty much mission impossible. It's like equipping moderate "rebels". After ½ a $billion there were 5 rebels, who immediately passed their equipment on to the other side to which they defected at the first encounter. Educating new candidates for your red team would be like cupping some sea water and crossing the entire beach — they would be convinced by the material as soon as they started understanding the efforts and results undertaken so far.
4. If there were qualified scientists with convincing alternate explanations of the facts, they could make a killing$. Such a person would be herded into every studio and corporate office around.
5. The whole sceptical delusion is a disorder that only seems to occur in a select group of Anglo-Saxon countries, much like an infection, mainly due to patterns of media ownership and corporate funded think tanks and lobbyists.
>> Only rhetorical and political considerations remain. It is time for investments in energy alternative and research in the same order of magnitude as military spending: this is one war we cannot afford to lose. People on the wrong side of this issue have to be outed as dummies, fakes, mercenaries, nincompoops, malevolent charlatans, hired ideologues, whores. None of the talking points are remotely plausible for anybody who takes the time to look into the actual science and responses by scientists. People who raise the "talking points" need to be pointed in the right direction once or twice, but any sign of perseverance means it is willful stupidity.
Against the foolhardy even the gods contend in vain. -
ubrew12 at 02:33 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
NorrisM@6 said: "ClimateGate had a very damaging effect... It is very similar to evidence given by a witness testifying in some legal case... For any jury, ALL of the evidence of that witness is tainted."
I'm constantly amazed how often climate deniers use the Law as an example to Science. Who has a more questionable reputation, lawyers or scientists? Next time I see a scientist chasing an ambulance I'll revise my opinion. For example, deniers keep harping on the exact timing of the demise of the Arctic summer sea ice. It is apparently really, really important to them that the scientists accurately predict the exact year when Arctic summer sea ice disappears. Who, other than a lawyer, performs this kind of misdirection? Hey, prosecutor, 80% of the sea ice is already gone! Past tense. In the last 30 years. Outside a courtroom, is there any question where the remaining 20% is headed?
Those of us fighting what is going on need to be aware that we are fighting rooms full of lawyers, and their speciality is misdirection. A favorite is 'moving the goalposts': like suddenly its no longer sufficient to point out that 80% of Arctic summer sea ice is gone, scientists must now predict exactly when the remaining 20% will be gone or their reputations will be ruined, their testimony tainted, and climate denial justified for the rest of eternity.
The appeal to jurisprudence is how NorrisM can point to the 'hiatus' and render judgement, "The models did not predict this and therefore are unreliable." But barrister, outside the kind of courtroom that found OJ Simpson guiltless of murder, any model of reality fundamentally cannot beat reality. It's not possible. It can only beat other models. It's not the fault of scientists if the Heartland Institute won't produce any. What you really should be asking yourself, NorrisM, is: 'Why won't they?'. That would at least lead you to a constructive outcome.
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NorrisM at 02:01 AM on 7 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
nijelj and Tom Curtis. Thanks, some very interesting replies.
As a non-scientist (and Canadian) I am just trying to get a handle on a very important issue looking on from the outside given that the main battleground is in the US. Please be assured that I think that the election of Trump is one of the scariest things to happen in my life. My concern is that everything that I have read and listened to (Sam Harris podcasts especially) tells me that we have Trump for a long time unless evidence is uncovered showing that Trump personally colluded with the Russians. But all that means is that we end up with Pence as President. Given my views on religion, this is just as scary a prospect.
So my point is that a "new" red team blue team is about the only thing that I think the Republicans will undertake. If this ultimately gets more money for observational equipment, then that would be a positive.
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rocketeer at 01:23 AM on 7 July 2017Bad news for climate contrarians – 'the best data we have' just got hotter
Funny how the 'climate science deniers' (I like this term because it clarifies exactly what they are denying) get so upset about the tiny corrections made to the surface data (i.e. Karl 2015) but think the satellite data is incontrovertible, despite the major revisions made every few years.
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Eclectic at 22:58 PM on 6 July 2017Why the Republican Party's climate policy obstruction is indefensible
NorrisM @6 ,
regarding the APS (American Physical Society) workshop/review of global warming [carried out in January 2014] and its 500+ page transcript (fortunately each page is brief!!!) :-
I have read through the transcript, with particular attention to the sections which you highlighted (in another thread) as showing dubious science and/or dubious answers/fudging ..... and I must say I found nothing substantive there which could be taken as overthrowing the mainstream science. Nothing at all. So I must beg you to be specific in nominating and clarifying any points which you feel strongly could support the denialist position (other than points of sheer empty rhetoric — of which there were many!!!!).
And in support of my statement above : it comes as no surprise that the senior officials/scientists/physicists of the APS found nothing substantive enough to justify them altering the APS Statement on AGW and climate science.
Furthermore, you will have noted that the review panel workshop date was January 2014 : just before the 3 record hot years 2014 / 2015 / 2016 (plus year-to-date in 2017) gave added demonstration of how empty and unreal were the claims that Global Warming had stopped. On top of that, the accompanying tropospheric warming now shows Christy's own claims to be wrong. And also reinforcing that Lindzen is very, very wrong.
Tom Curtis and Nigelj have indicated the false reasoning i.e. "motivated reasoning" used by many science-deniers such as Koonin Lindzen Christy and Curry. It must be highly likely that Curry's claim that "Climategate" suddenly converted her away from mainstream science ..... is a factitious claim made in retrospect : a demonstration of "motivated reasoning" on her part. After all, numerous independent reviews have shown that the "Climategate" allegations were a beat-up over nothing substantive. And what real scientist would alter her views, citing evidence known to be false?!
That is why the Republican politicians' professed desire for "Red Team" reassessment, is pure poppycock. All they wish to do is achieve further years of delaying tactics, and at the same time give the public the impression that the genuine climate scientists are sufficiently moved by doubt of their own position (as to agree that review is necessary).
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