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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Trump used our research to justify pulling out of the Paris agreement. He got it wrong.

His administration cherry-picked my group’s findings to help make their case.

Opinion by John Reilly*, Washington Post, June 7, 2017

As scientists concerned with the very real impact of human activity on climate, my colleagues and I certainly hope our research reaches policymakers at the highest levels of government — which, apparently, it did, when White House officials cited our work to justify President Trump’s decision to pull the United States out of the Paris climate accord.

Unfortunately, they got it wrong.

In talking points released along with the president’s withdrawal, the administration referenced an MIT study from the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which I co-direct with Ronald Prinn, to bolster the proposition that even if all signatories to the Paris agreement met their obligations, “the impact on the climate would be negligible.” But that runs counter to the view, held by my colleagues and I, that the Paris agreement’s unprecedented global framework is necessary to address climate change.

Click here to access the entire article.

*John Reilly is co-director of MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

scaddenp at 07:46 AM on 9 June 2017

It cooled mid-century

Qwertie, well it is hardly a "sine wave", but yes it does contribute to variability about the trend in surface temperature in decadal scale. A couple of important points to note:

1/ PDO does not appear to be a single ocean dynamic feature but rather the expression of the sum of multiple underlying dynamics.

2/ The PDO is inherently detrended. ie global average SST is substacted from the Pacific SST in calculating the index.

nigelj at 07:45 AM on 9 June 2017

Pittsburgh and Paris join over 200 cities and states rejecting Trump on climate

"Government regulations shouldn’t be used to pick winners and losers"

Well agreed, but subsidising or otherwise supporting renewable energy isn't really picking a winner. It is just helping the industry get started when it faces a lot of difficulties beyond what would be normal. For example, this is why Americas government funded and created NASA because it was beyond the private sector but provides benefits to America as a whole.

It also needs to be said The Republicans subsidise oil and agriculture. However it is very difficult to understand any logical reason to support established oil magnates and millionaire farmers, and there seems to me more logic in supporting renewable energy, at least for a limited time period until it becomes established.

There is also nothing wrong with government regulations that control use of fossil fuels or tax their use etc. Markets have never self regulated to prevent or rectify environmental problems, as its easy to pass these problems onto future generations, or some other persons known as the tragedy of the commons problem. Therefore governments have traditionally regulated environmental activity. I dont see why Trump and his team don't understand this.

It should also be noted Trump is treating the Paris agreement like a hardball businesss negotiation, and this might be ok up to a certain point given nation states have to somehow cooperate and reach agreements. But international environmental agreements are more political agreements, and need a strong spirit of goodwill. Without that they all fail to even get off the ground and playing hardball becomes destructive and will hurt America ultimately if the whole thing breaks down. You have to take a broad and long view of international agreements.

America under Trump has now become the global renogade, taking a very hostile approach to agreements and indeed everything, and opposing international consensus on all sorts of issues for irrational reasons that beggar belief.

L'Schoo at 00:51 AM on 9 June 2017

Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming

Paris looks more and more like a political pageant, meant to at least show the hoi polloi it's willing to look like it cares, but any real, substantive and verifiable action is NOT on the table. It all smells very Neoliberal......

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José M. Sousa at 23:41 PM on 8 June 2017

Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming

Well, it seems that even assuming the pledges (Paris is no more than that, simple good intentions) will come true, most scenarios above put us well beyond 2 ºC and close or above 3 ºC. That means a big chance of crossing tipping points that will put in motion positive feedbacks that will increase the emissions regardless what we do. So, it becomes somehow irrelevant to say that this or that agreement prevents more or less 0.5 ºC if we have crossed certain temperature thresholds, like 2º C.

DPiepgrass at 17:29 PM on 8 June 2017

It cooled mid-century

Somebody should answer Chuck's question about PDO. I'd like to know too.

DPiepgrass at 15:53 PM on 8 June 2017

Blaming the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

When was the PDO discovered and when did it come to the attention of climatologists? Just curious because skeptics often act like something is a new discovery even when it's old news.

Moderator Response:

[DB] The term was coined in 1996. This is a good discussion of it by the originator of the term.

scaddenp at 15:46 PM on 8 June 2017

Climate's changed before

Jim, "natural cycles" is a very vague term and you need to talk about scale. On short term (

Climate changes when the energy balance changes. First law of thermodynamics stuff. You can do that by varying the incoming solar (either by changing distance to sun, solar output, screening with aerosols), albedo, or the GHG composition in that atmosphere. It is not at all clear to me why you are claiming "cycles are logarithmic".

So what among those are changing and by how much? The milankovich cycles driving ice ages actually vary the distribution of solar energy on the surface but in practise vary climate through change in albedo - more or less ice on northern hemisphere continents. Those changes also trigger variations in CH4 and CO2 but over long time scales, turning NH effect into a global event. (Freezing or thawing of asiatic wetlands; vegatation changes; ocean CO2 by dependence of solubility on temperature). They are entirely reversable.

Currently, the milankovich cycles should be inducing a very slow cooling. However, this cycle is slow and effect at 65N are changes of around 0.008W/m2/ century. Also worth noting that while we had milankovich cycles in the Pliocene when CO2 was over 400pm, we didnt have ice age cycle.

By comparison, changes in GHG are inducing a warming of around 4W/m2/century globally, not just NH. (We can measure this increase in surface irradation from GHG directly).

What about the sun? We can now measure output directly and see that this is not contributing.

What about some hidden ocean cycle? Well it is very hard to claim increase in surface temperature is coming from ocean when the oceans are warming too. Violation of 1st law - where is the energy coming from.

Something undiscovered by science? Can never be ruled out, but the current climate change is perfectly adequately explained by GHG changes. If it is something else, then why is the extra irradation of the surface NOT the cause?

Engineer Jim at 13:22 PM on 8 June 2017

Climate's changed before

Interestin discussion. looking at the full tread it started with "this happened before" and eventually devolves to technical minutia. Yes this has happened before, CO2 concentrations have increased in the past resulting in heating, then cycled through to an eventual ice age or cooling period. What happened to cause the reduction in CO2 in those past cooling cycles? Carbon sequestration in coal beds, etc.?

At present we are approximately 10,000 years past the last glacial maxus and have been in a long term warming cycle. Natural cycles are typically logarithmic in nature, not linear. Point is: is the current acceleration part of a normally occurring natural cycle following a logarithmic trend? Does the increase in man-made pollution simply create an overprint on what would have happened naturally. The real big picture question?

nigelj at 13:02 PM on 8 June 2017

Donald Trump just cemented his legacy as America’s worst-ever president

Chriskoz, I interpreted the title of this article to mean Trump was considered the worst president ever on the basis of a combination of his climate policies and all his other policies. This is a reasonable assessment of him. The use of cementing his legacy implied to me the climate policies were the final brick in the wall.

I might have missinterpreted this, and its a wide position for the website to make. It would however be my own personal conclusion.

But I think you are right about the rest of your comments such as "His passion is contageous and his followers uncritically follow." Trump is almost like those tele- evangilist ministers in his style of twisted rhetoric.

Trumps supporters clearly all connect with Trump at some visceral level and speak the same langauge (mumbo jumbo more like it).

Trump has pulled off a clever and devious if reprehensible move, he has united educated white business people who oppose business regulation and social security etc, and blue collar workers left behind, etc even though Trumps business agenda hurts blue collar workers in many ways. Trump has done all this by creating a common enemy "the estblishment elite" whoever they are, which he keeps deliberately unclear to keep the whole charade going. If he is too specific then his ruse falls apart.

Trumps followers lack the ability to see they are being cleverly manipulated by a master of group psychology. The end result of the process is a good deal of general confusion, which will add to global moves towards increased nationalism and anti global cooperation.

Trumps moves could weaken the Paris accord as well. Or will it? Trump is so monumentally crass and loud and generally offensive, he may drive the rest of the world further towards globalisation and The Paris Agreement!

Digby Scorgie at 10:45 AM on 8 June 2017

Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming

Everything I've read about Bjorn Lomborg points to the fact that he is a fraud. I recall reading (but can't remember where, unfortunately) that he has been funded by some in the fossil-fuel industry to produce "studies" sympathetic to fossil-fuel interests. I would discount his 2015 paper as worthless.

Moderator Response:

[PS] No accusation of fraud. Please respect our comments policy.

nigelj at 08:19 AM on 8 June 2017

Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming

Lombergs study just doesn't make sense. From the article it just appears to be assumptions that people wont cut emissions or hold to commitments longer term. How does that even qualify as a science study, and get passed peer review? Its vacuous, anyone could have claimed that, and it tells us nothing that we couldn't do just as a maths exercise.

It's also little more than pessimism based on empty claims about China with no foundation for his claims. Why does he think China will act in that way? If anything, given their form of government it may be easier for China to stay with longer term policies than a democracy.

He claims other countries will just give up gradually over time, but I see no reason why he would claim that. If you look at other environmental policies it's much less pessimistic. Many policies have stuck in place rather well, like efforts to reduce cfc's, reduce use of asbestos and ddt, etc. Of course there have been failures, and backsliding by some countries, companies, or individuals, but that is definitely not universal or predominant from what I can see.

Possibly Lomberg thinks countries will see things as all just increasingly too hard for small returns. But he is just speculating, and being a total pessimist. This is not a good way for humanity to think, and we do have choices about how we think

If you want to predict how countries might react, at least look at history so you have something tangible. One possible scenario in America longer term might be an alternating policy cycle of action and inaction on climate, depending on whether government is dominated by Republicans or democrats, so you get maybe 8 years of inaction, 8 years of action, 8 years of inaction in a repeating cycle. You should calculate that trend of emissions, over time as its the most likely outcome in America.

In fact real issue in America over climate (and other matters) is a large disconnect between the population and Congress. The population want more done on climate change, and Congress want less done, but given the nature of things this will ultimately force some form of compromise and at least something will be done. In addition the market is moving towards renewable energy regardless of politics.

The rest of the world seems to be less politically volatile or divided on climate change, eg Germany, Britain, NZ so forward trajectories are likely to be a bit more stable than America.

jtfarmer at 07:48 AM on 8 June 2017

Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming

At what point in the temperature rise do we have to start accounting for fewer humans on earth. When that happens, less energy will be required to sustain those that survive. Perhaps then earth will find its equilibrium.

ubrew12 at 06:24 AM on 8 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

Hank@12: I'm no expert. I refer to a graph, which I linked to in my original post, and had seen before. Here's the graph:

At least, according to this graph, the depth of the last several ice ages was 4 to 8 F below our holocene optimum. So, choosing 6 F, that's why I said 3 C.

dfwlms@13: The context for this discussion is flooding in Missouri, which as reported, killed 13 people a couple years ago. We're trying to prevent further death and destruction. That's not 'Chicken Little' behavior. I, for one, do not think the 'sky will fall' from global warming, because I know the technologies that exist to combat it are technically feasible (though perhaps costly). Realism is needed to determine when they need to be deployed, however. I casually peg a decade from now as the moment when public opinion and purse will move to deploy these solutions en mass. I believe we'll skirt the worst once everybody realizes how serious this is.

dfwlms at 23:19 PM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

It might be instructive to reflect on the simple tale of yore, "Chicken Little" (or "Henny Penny"). There appear to be a multitude of "the sky is falling" partisans when contemplating the ever-changing climate and guessing at the causes.

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Hank11198 at 21:04 PM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

Ubrew12 I was referring to the ice core graphs I see on multiple websites which show a 5-8C drop in temperature. As an engineer that tries to keep abreast of climate science and has taken a few online courses on the subject I am limited in my understanding of the subject. However I do make a concentrated effort to study the subject and check several climate websites on a daily basis. So I will have to take your word for the 3C figure.

With that said, I have tried my best to find information on whether those graphs show local temperatures or whether they have been adjusted somehow to show global temperatures. I wish there was a place on the web where someone that has these types of questions could go too in order to obtain answers that seem to be unavailable as general information. If anyone reading these comments know of such a site I would greatly appreciate a response.

Eclectic at 15:10 PM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

Nigelj, I am not sure how far down the [what you call "eccentric"] pathway Lindzen is. I base my comments on his expressions during a video interview he gave in 2006 when he was only 66 years old. Having a non-Christian upbringing, it is presumably only the Old Testament fundamentalism which is behind his assertion that the Earth cannot be sliding upwards to devastatingly-high global temperatures. He was full of denial : even though at the time of the interview, global surface temperatures and the accompanying effects of warming, were much higher at that stage than he wished to acknowledge.

I certainly gained the impression of mild intellectual impairment — but that was merely based on the 40-minute interview (possibly a version edited by the interviewer, who sounded rather like a Heartland agent) and I dare say I viewed him through the lens of my own suspicions! He did not seem (to me) to be such a florid case as Ivar Giaever or Fred Singer.

But we are digressing off topic.

Eclectic at 14:34 PM on 7 June 2017

There's no empirical evidence

Galenpsmith @328 , you have posted in the wrong thread. Please choose a more appropriate thread for discussing the good and bad effects of CO2 / hotter climate in relation to greater greenness (good for goats and insects) and reduced food production for humans.

Moderator Response:

[DB] Thank you.

nigelj at 14:32 PM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

Eclectic @9, thank's for the clarification on Giaver and its certainly possible that age is making him a little eccentric or something. We mostly all go that way eventually.

Lindzen does as you say believe the planet is resilient and self correcting, but I didnt realise he made a religious connection with this? He seems just more like a contrarian sort of character on all sorts of things.

Anyway I just don't see Lindzens point, because the world is actually probably self correcting and nobody is arguing agw climate change will be permanent (although it will last millenia). It still poses a risk and cost for humanity for a very long time, and I think we are forced into a cost / benefit sort of consideration of what is the best response to the problem, which is pointing towards the desirability to reduce emissions. The fact that the planet will eventually re-absorb CO2 is no comfort for us because that process is so slow.

I also think that while the probability of something truly hugely catastrophic is low, (like several metres of sea level rise per century), but this is of big enough potential impact that it needs very sober consideration.

galenpsmith at 14:20 PM on 7 June 2017

There's no empirical evidence

Isn't CO2 plant food? The more CO2, the greener the planet. It's very basic science...

Moderator Response:

[DB] Anyone wishing to respond to this user please do so at this thread.

Galen, please read the linked thread and the comments there in their entirety to edify yourself. If, after doing so, you still wish to pursue this line of discussion, please do so there, and not here.

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Eclectic at 13:46 PM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

Ubrew12 and Nigelj , please do not misunderstand me. I was in no way wishing to be an apologist for Giaever. He deserves only censure, for the arrant nonsense he was talking, and for his chutzpah in seeking to lecture experts in a [climate science] field in which he confesses himself a complete novice without any formal education.

My point is that there are plenty of nominally-sane people (who are too young to have any likelihood of senile dementia) who present the "usual" denier arguments. We can speculate on the angry and selfish motives underlying their thinking. But I do not know Giaever's emotional background that may be influencing him in his twilight years. Lindzen, on the other hand, expresses a [non-Christian] fundamentalist bias toward a religious view of a divinely-protected status of planet Earth. This would appear to be at least part of his emotional baggage, impelling him toward his own strangely unscientific views [ strangely, for someone with climate science knowledge a million miles higher than Giaever's ].

nigelj at 12:17 PM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

Eclectic @6, I don't understand why you would defend Ivar Gaiever. He is smart enough and highly qualified enough to know his claims were flippant and shallow.

Does he have a pre-existing emotional bias? I have a suggestion: He is currently a science advisor to the Heartland Institute. This suggests to me he sympathises with their entire dubious libertarian and ultra conservative, small government world view, as I cannot believe anyone would work for them, if they didn't share that basic world view. He does not appear the sort who would struggle to find work, given his credentials! Of course he is free to state what his world view is, if he thinks I'm being unfair.

I agree Lindzen is influenced by old testament beliefs. I wonder if Roy Spencer is as well, given things he has written.

So we have two things associated with climate denial, religious fundamentalism and free market economic fundamentalism. Now theres an interesting coincidence!

ubrew12 at 12:11 PM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

I don't mean to pick on Giaever. A climate-denying friend of mine posted his talk on facebook in response to a talk I posted by Elon Musk, following the Trump-Paris divorce. Musk wasn't trying to defend the idea of climate change (because... why?), he was just talking about how to proceed with a solution (because... engineer). But the response required me to wade into a swamp I didn't want to enter (because... can't let sleeping dogs lie), and this is what I determined. Denial can't be so fragile that 5 minutes of thinking about a central claim, by someone not particularly invested with debunking ability, can unravel a 'Nobel-Prize-winner' foisted upon my friend by the Heartland Institute. We are entering 'Alice-in-Wonderland' territory, here. The underlying message is "we don't actually care if our talking-head is ridiculous upon closer examination. He just has to have 'Nobel-Prize-winner' placed prominently before his name." That's a really scary place to be. My friend told me that if I couldn't handle push-back, I shouldn't be posting on facebook. And really, that's the point. Everyone: Heartland, Giaever, my friend. They aren't about discussion, they're about self-censorship. Heartland just needs 'Nobel-Prize-winner' before Giaever's name, and a bunch of fetid whack-a-mole arguments, and a syncophant saying 'if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen', to shut down the discussion... until Earth inconveniently brings it up again.

Eclectic at 11:22 AM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

ubrew @4 , it is perhaps rather unfair to use Nobel Laureate Ivar Giaever as a typical example of self-deluding ways of thinking about climate temperature changes.

You reference the video of his talk to an assembly of young scientists (together with a number of Nobel Laureates) — a talk in which he confesses he took about a day of internet surfing to educate himself on the AGW issue [seemingly on WUWT website!!!!! ]. Giaever brought out all sorts of false and ridiculous arguments in classic "denier" style — arguments so infantile and unscientific, which surely could never have been made by him 40 years ago when he was in his prime.

His address must have been painfully embarrassing for the young scientists to witness. ( And I myself couldn't bear to watch more than the first part of this recorded talk. )

I would not wish to speculate on what has caused such a deterioration of Giaever's rationality : but presumably there was some pre-existing emotional bias that underlay his recent conversion to an anti-science way of thinking.

Quite different is Lindzen's anti-science way of thinking. Lindzen is influenced by an Old Testament idea that the planet was divinely created as a self-correcting mechanism (and which therefore inevitably cannot become seriously overheated).

One Planet Only Forever at 09:18 AM on 7 June 2017

Reflections on the politics of climate change

One more follow-up on my follow-up@21 (there will probably be more)

The advancement of understanding of Marketing was probably a significant factor in the amount and speed of the societal transition to the Culture of Image. There is no doubt that misleading marketing, or appeals other than raising awareness and better understanding, can be very effective in the short-term. That point was made in the first lecture of my MBA Marketing course in the 1980s. The Prof added that misleading marketing was not a long-term success strategy.

Contrary to the better understanding that had already developed by the 1980s, a lot of product marketing has grown based on making appealing impressions rather than honestly trying to help consumers better understand what they 'purchasing votes' are supporting. And political marketing is over the top on trying to get away with Making-up Impressions (of the candidate and of the opponent).

The continued development and success of that type of marketing is an indication that a significant number of people are Easily Impressed, especially when personal self-interest perceptions of self-image are played-on.

The success of Influential Impressions rather than Good Reason will continue as long as a significant portion of the population are willing to be tempted to care more about their personal present than helping to develop a gift of a better life for future generations.

This Powerful Desire for the Best Possible Personal Present is evident in many financial evaluations related to climate change. It is still considered acceptable for a portion of a current generation to benefit in a way that is understood to be harmful/costing to future generations as long as the amount of harm/cost perceived to be inflicted on future generations is less than the benefit perceived to have to be given up so that the future harm is not created. In fact, discount rates that make future costs appear to be less significant even still applied to those evaluations. One of the supporting points in the Sustainable Development Goals is that the discount rate for such evaluations should be reduced, ideally to zero. That point needs to be corrected to make it clear that it is unacceptable for members of a current generation to create any amount of harm for Others (future generations). Future generations are Others.

On the climate science point in particular, the future generations get no benefit from the activity that portions of the current generations resist giving up on (economic activity that is unsustainable and damaging has no future value). And the people who do not want to give up on that Better Personal Present Opportunity are easily impressed by any message that appears to confirm that they do not have to change their minds.

nigelj at 08:24 AM on 7 June 2017

Reflections on the politics of climate change

OPOF @24, the puritanical / ascetic sorts of beliefs have been tried so many times and are still being tried, ironically right now by jihadist islamic fundamentalists like ISIS. Most people reject such beliefs as they are so miserable to live with, but they presumably give comfort to certain personality types. But fortunately they appear to be in a minority.

Of course when systems of belief like puratinism have been tried and failed, theres always a danger of going to the other extreme, which is not always a good thing.

For example the authoritarian culture of the west in 1950s was probably too repressive, and lead to the more liberal generation of the 1960s and following this, but this generation exhibited its own range of problems. (However this in no way invalidates a basically liberal mindset)

Another example: The combined western capitalist / socialist economic structure of the post WW2 period produced some good results, but stagnated and lead to the neoliberal revolution of the 1980s onwards, but this was quite an extreme change, and has developed some severe problems of its own. The good elements of the previous period were all thrown out with the flawed elements.

Humanity seems to progess in a haphazard fashion, from one extreme to another, often failing to find a sensible balance, when ironically that balance is so obvious to so many of us. I suppose experiment is needed and this involves extremes, but it would be better to try to model these things more on paper, rather than experiment with entire countries and cultures.

The culture of character has moved from work and duty to image and glamour, however it's hard for me to see it as an either / or choice to consciously make. Its hard not to conclude that a mix of both seems desirable.

Of course there is a huge negative, trash side to image and glamour, for me epitomised by the Kardashians. You mentioned the massive and corrosive power of marketing. But Ironically the move to characteristics of image, and glamour etc is seen negatively, but its people like actors and artists who are loudest in questioning the irresponsibility of corporate behaviour and climate denial! This suggests there is a lot of nuance and complexity going on.

So what is the ideal global citizen? Well I can't think of better than hard work, maturity, and good character, combined with some pleasure, fashion, and amusements. Its a balancing act, and I see nothing wrong with that.

btheist at 07:57 AM on 7 June 2017

Scientists can't even predict weather

Most likely this has been posted somewhere on here already, but I love the analogy: climate is your personality, weather is your mood.

nigelj at 07:09 AM on 7 June 2017

Donald Trump vs Paris Climate Agreement

Dfwlms @4, yes there is inevitably competition between nations and at some levels this is quite healthy. However this competition also caused WW1, WW2, and the cold war and current troubles with Korea. Its a perplexing, double edged sword and humanity has spent many years trying to reconcile this difficult situation.

The post WW2 thinking has been to strengthen bonds between countries with international agreeements, The UN, trade, tourism and immigration. Despite some problems with this, I think the overall results have been an incredible success on so many different levels. It's the way to go.

Of course such globalisation processes need care and cannot be uncontrolled or absolute. Sovereignty is also important. Immigration needs some level of control and people hurt by globalisation forces deserve assistance and maybe income support, for a period, etc.

I dont know where it will end. A united states of the world perhaps? I have mixed feelings on that. But remember the nation state is a recent invention at The Treaty of Westphalia.

There are both advantages and problems with excessive power of organisations like the UN, but one thing I'm absolutely certain of international linkages and agreements are important, and given we all share the same atmosphere and climate system, such that one country can have negative affects on everyone, internationalism seems inevitable on at leasst some big issues, if we want to survie and prosper and have a stable environment.

It is very clear most countries are embracing some level of globalisation, just look at both global and regional trade agreements in recent years. Virtually everyone wants to be part of these.

Donald Trump is going in the opposite direction and fails to grasp the benefits of globalisation. He sees things a ruthless competition and some sort of zero sum game, when its just more complicated and subtle than that with huge benefits for America. Free trade has benefitted America, and has lifted millions in developing countries out of poverty. We just have to ensure workers in America are not overly disolocated, but rather than bringing back tariffs, there are better ways to do this.

Climate science is a whole lot more sophisticated, advanced and thorough than some piltdown man hoax centuries ago.Thousands of scientists have written thousands of research papers looking at every aspect of climate change to be as sure as possible they have got things right. There is intense "competition" between scientists and far more crticicism of "warmists" against warmists than you probably realise.

I dont think we can ever be 100% sure of anything in this world, but it is better to go with the findings of science, than gut feelings, and a lot of climate scepticism seems little more than driven by emotion and fear, desperately searching for increasingly desperate sounding denialist arguments. I cannot and will not accept such intellectual nonsense.

nigelj at 06:41 AM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

For an insight and some shocks of what can potentially happen regarding temperature swings and sea level rise, a very good book is "After the Ice, a global history of human civilisation 20,000 - 5,000 bc, by Steven Mithen". Written by an archaeologist, it documents, among other things, climate change as the glaciers first started to retreat. Ironically the authors is a self confessed agw sceptic, but this should reassure the climate denialists that at least his book is worth a read.

The book includes archeological evidence for some very rapid periods of sea level rise of metres per century. It has fascinating things like the discovery by divers of settlements many meteres below the Mediterranean ocean, and evidence in Australia of stone age villages relocating in step wise fashion, as sea levels rose. For some reason Australia appears to have had abrupt regional sea level rise at one point.

Of course we are now at risk of triggering a rapid version of something similar and it will affect more than a few primitive villages, and population is just a little larger! We think sea level rise will be steady which is concerning enough, but cannot rule out the possibility of more rapid periods.

But we are told god wont let it happen, (despite all those changes in the distant past) or its a big government conspiracy, etc, etc seemingly ad infinitum. When people dont like some new scientific idea, they are very inventive at coming up with an avalanche of sceptical criticisms, increasingly desperate ones.

ubrew12 at 06:07 AM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

Hank@3: Thank you. I was referring to Nobel prize winner (for studying superconduction in solids 50 years ago) Ivar Giaever (currently on Heartland Institutes payroll), claiming in his talk (6' in) that "from 1880 to 2013 temperature has increased from 288K to 288.8K (0.3%). If this is true, to me it means the temperature has been amazingly stable." To you? You, sir, are not being asked (except in your own mind). The question is: does a 0.3% change in global temperature, in absolute terms, matter to Earth? As it turns out, h8ll yeah! The difference between a holocene optimum and an ice age is only 1% (in Kelvin terms), so of course a 0.3% change is significant.

By the way, you mentioned that an ice age is 5-8 degrees colder than present, but that is in Fahrenheit. In Celsius, or Kelvin, that is 2.8K to 4.5K. As a percent, in absolute terms, the last ice age was about 1% colder than pre-industrial. Meaning that today's temperature, at 0.3% hotter than pre-industrial, is kind of a 'big deal'. Giaever was hoping that because it doesn't look like a 'big deal', as a number, it wouldn't physically be a 'big deal', to a planet. The 'tell' is when he inserts himself into the judgement of whether its a 'big deal' or not.

Hank11198 at 03:56 AM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

I completely agree ubrew12. I've been saying this for a long time that most people do not realize that it does not take that much change in global temperature to produce an ice age, although I read it was 5-8 degrees. Since civilization was not able to develop until the end of the ice age, what should people think a 3-4 degree rise would do to civilization if that was explained.

It’s completely frustrating to see the people the news networks put on their shows to explain global warming when they stutter and stammer about how scientists agree on global warming while the opposition will quickly say this or that survey shows no agreement and then launch into how the government will tax and how many jobs will be lost if we tax CO2. It’s sad but people are much more interested in hearing how their immediate life will be affected, especially when 2 degrees sounds like a slightly warmer day.

knaugle at 03:31 AM on 7 June 2017

Anti-vaccers, climate change deniers, and anti-GMO activists are all the same

#20The UN estimates of 4,000 deaths from Chernobyl are over the next 50 years AND are possibly on the high side. Bophal, the 10,000 deaths were in the course of an hour, and they definitely are not comparable. Also, advances in radiation health physics have if anything, led to a reduction in the dangers posed by accute and certainly low level radiation. However, face it. We don't store low level RAM in our garage, we fear it, and it's illegal for that matter. But I would not be surprised if most of us have glyphosate, carbaryl, and malathion in the garage. That was my point, and I think you kind of proved it.

Besides, I could with research get the NAME of every person killed at Bophal. You would be hard pressed to identify any of the supposed 4,000 deaths at Chernobyl (beyond the ones killed that first month), because it is just a statistical estimate.

knaugle at 03:22 AM on 7 June 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22

#1
There is a clear misconception among many that its the INCREASE in fossil fuel emissions that is causing CO2 to increase. However, if tomorrow emissions were cut in half, it simply means the year over year increase in CO2 would decline to about 1 ppm/yr from 2 ppm/yr. That's because, correct me if I'm wrong, burning coal and oil and nat'l gas is not part of the natural carbon cycle when viewed in human time frames. So there is only a small connection to El Nino. Test this by removing the El Nino and La Nina years from the data and noting that not much changes in the past 50 years. The Keeling curve remains pretty steady.

RedBaron at 03:08 AM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

As usual the article completely ignored the simple fact that the flood and AGW are both symptoms of the very same thing. There is too much carbon in the atmosphere and not enough in the soil. In fact there is more carbon missing from the soil than extra in the atmosphere. That's why AGW mitigation and adaptation is exactly the same... and completely ignored by John Abraham.

ubrew12 at 02:39 AM on 7 June 2017

The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri

It's Missouri: The flooding will continue until the gays stop getting married (/s).

Not to hijack the conversation, but deniers often claim that a 2 C anomaly is 'not a big deal'. I think the proper metric to mention, as to whether it is or not, is the temperature difference between our Holoscene and a full-blown ice age. Because this is only 3 C (or 5.4 F). Hence, as we are 1 C above pre-industrial, it may be helpful to state that as 'one-third of the way toward an ice age, but in the opposite direction'. And a 2 C anomaly is 'two-thirds of the way'. It's a way to make the temperature change visceral, because everybody knows that an ice age is completely different from the planet we're accustomed to: with ice sheets covering the entire Northern Hemisphere, and sea levels 300 feet lower than is current.

One Planet Only Forever at 01:59 AM on 7 June 2017

Reflections on the politics of climate change

A follow-up on my comment@21

Mill's thoughts On Liberty were developed during a time when peer pressure among the successful and influential in England were winning things like the end of slavery. The push by Puritans for power in America, with their dogmatic beliefs in the unacceptability of harmless enjoyment of life through activities like music and dance and consumption of alcohol, was also happening. Mill's thoughts are the thoughts from early 1800's England, a time and place dominated by the Culture of Character.

As Susan Cain points out in “Quiet - The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking”, after “On Liberty” was published (but not because the Essay was published), there was a shift of what was considered to be the desired traits of a successful person. Susan Cain's book includes information about the change in America in the late 1800s from a Culture of Character to a Culture of Personality (potentially influenced as a response to the Puritan push) - both terms are originated/presented by historian Warren Sussman - with the primary perceptions of a successful person, described in books recommending how a person can improve themselves, shifting from “Citizenship, Duty, Work, Golden deeds, Honour, Reputation, Morals, Manners, Integrity” to “Magnetic, Fascinating, Stunning, Attractive, Glowing, Dominant, Forceful, Energetic”.

Though the change of focus about what is perceived to be a successful person has merit as a response to the stifling dogmatism of the Puritans, it also diminished the value of thoughtful reasoned consideration of actions. A result has been the failure to ensure that 'people perceived to be successful were Responsible Adults (rather than people who grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives - Mill's description).

That can be understood to have been a Bad/Unhelpful change. It resulted in the increased honouring/Winning of Dogmatism (though not the Puritan Dogmatism) and Demagoguery that undeniably needs to be undone.

The continued reasoned presentation of the constantly improving understanding of climate science is an important part of getting that change to happen. Reason based arguments for all of the other Sustainable Development Goals would also help. And co-supporting and cross-selling those reasons can also be helpful.

Everyone who has an interest in pursuing any one of the Sustainable Development Goals can be helped to understand that it is essential to understand the reasons behind all of the goals. Only people who play-pretend and self-proclaim they support any of those Goals to try to Win Support will refuse to better understand the importance of changing their minds. Everyone else can see who those trouble-making people are by their resistance to understanding climate science, or any of the other reason based 17 goals. Those people denying climate science also typically denigrate the related actions to have the people who got more wealth by burning more fossil fuels transfer a portion of their wealth to help the less fortunate who suffer consequences of the impacts of the burning of the fossil fuels. They are people who admire Characters without Character who present appealing Made-up (dogmatic) Claims that cannot be defended against Rational Reasoning (leading them to resort to more Dogmatic claims that will appeal to, is further delude, their faithful fearful followers).

Eclectic at 00:29 AM on 7 June 2017

There is no consensus

True, CycleGeek @752, there are people who are so divorced from reality as to believe what they want to believe, in defiance of the actual state of affairs.

If you yourself are not one of these people, then you will now (having read so many pages) be able to give a brief summary of the "legitimate arguments" against the existence of the scientific consensus.

Reading this thread, and using the most strenuous skepticism, I have been unable to find any such "legitimate arguments" — so I very much look forward to being enlightened by your reply (assuming you can find any arguments that are not simply delusional and unrealistic as Monckton's ).

bvangerven at 00:08 AM on 7 June 2017

Donald Trump vs Paris Climate Agreement

A polluter is caught in the action of polluting. He himself may determine the height of the fine he has to pay. Worse, if he doesn’t pay at all, he cannot be legally prosecuted. That’s basically the content of the Paris agreement.

Imagine the same principle would be applied for paying taxes: you can choose the amount of taxes you pay, and if you don’t pay a cent nobody will bother you. Does anybody with one healthy brain cell left believe that this way the government would receive enough money to cover their expenses ?

Now why would we believe that in case of climate change this deal will make a difference ? it is exactly because it is an agreement without teeth that the fossil fuel industry allowed it to pass. Exxonmobile even urged Trump to stay in the climate agreement.

But dumbass Trump pulls out of the Paris climate agreement. Imo in that case al deals are off the table. If you refuse an amicable settlement, it is back to a full blown lawsuit in which the extent of the caused damage is established by experts and the full indemnity must be paid. The human rights should provide enough of a basis for a lawsuit.

MVW at 23:49 PM on 6 June 2017

Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect

Thanks Tom. This is helpful. A couple additional thoughts. As you note, the purely radiative model will produce a surface temperature that is 30 degrees warmer than a more complete model. Just applying a simple energy balance model to Venus gives a surface temperature that is cooler. I just now found a paper by Titov and others "Radiation in the Atmosphere" and they noted (as does original article here) that very little of the NISR reaches the surface of Venus. It struct me that Venus is heated from the top rather than the bottom, so it is more like the ocean than the atmospheric situation on Earth. But that is just a thought.

Mike

dfwlms at 23:44 PM on 6 June 2017

Donald Trump vs Paris Climate Agreement

President Trump's responsibilities are to the American people. There has always been and will always be competition among nations. This is not a bad thing as long as the competition has a moral and legal basis. We should not be too critical of the President because of his singular personality and what seems to be, on the surface, a good measure of immaturity. Just wait and see.

Equality among nations is a pipe dream, unrealizable and undesirable. And the climate-change theories are sort of like the Piltdown-Man theory when scientists accepted, for more than 40 years, that a monkey's bone was that of a human ancestor.

Moderator Response:

[DB] Please review this venue's Comments Policy and construct future comments to comply with it.

Ideology and sloganeering snipped.

L'Schoo at 23:08 PM on 6 June 2017

Donald Trump vs Paris Climate Agreement

Great points! But whenever you're dealing with Trump you're also dealing with a master chisler and charlatan. So in those terms, what he's done is very predictable. The US is littered with millions upon millions of climate change deniers. I would go so as far to say there are more climate deniers in a few US states than the entire country of Canada. That being said, Trump is playing to his base (politically) which, "shockedface" has a great deal of self imposed ignorance in-bred into their clique. This may sound overly harsh but in reality this point is sadly more true than many Amercians are willing to admit. They are no longer are the "home of the brave and land of the free". Trump does in fact reflect the views of over 60 million Amercian voters.

chriskoz at 23:05 PM on 6 June 2017

Donald Trump just cemented his legacy as America’s worst-ever president

While it's true that T-man's latest action is just a symbolic gesture with no consequneces nor real difference to the level of mitigation in US, this gesture has a very strong stmbolic meaning that may influence the attitude of others. People are even affraid that the precedence of such unconditional exit of the biggest emitter from Paris accord may incline other nations to follow, including the dissolution of the entire agreement. But I hope other nation leaders are not as silly as not to see through the moronic principles ans behaviour of this Clown-In-Chief.

Note that T-man, as he appears in the video, he really seems to believe that this decision is "the most important in the world". In his egotic self-glorification, he seriously thinks he's on a mission to "make America great", while people are, behind his back sometime even openly, laughing at his silly and empty proclamations. So, in this context, this latest action of T-man is just another such silly proclamation. No doubt as pationate move as his earlier moves, its destructive power though, lurks in his followers' minds. Like them or not, call them confused or "deplorables", he has many millions of followers who voted him in. Unfortunately his passion is very contagious and his followers believe what he says because they do not apply any scrutiny to his words like we do here. That process, which can be called deception on a massve scale (intentionally or not performed by T-man) is a dangerous process and it needs to be stopped or at least contained. And the strong symbolism of Paris feeds into that process. That's why I think Dana's article, including it's title is important as a rebutal of T-man's deceptive actions, even though eccesiasticaly the article and the title does make little sense.

SirCharles at 22:49 PM on 6 June 2017

Donald Trump vs Paris Climate Agreement

Paris Agreement: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

CycleGeek at 22:08 PM on 6 June 2017

There is no consensus

After reading way to many pages of this threads, one thing is certain, too many people are simply going to believe what they want to believe. To deny that there are legitimate arguments on both sides is dishonest simply dishonest.

Moderator Response:

[DB] You are invited to pick the "legitimate argument" you feel the strongest about, and bring the citational evidence to support it, and post it on the most relevant thread here at SkS.

[PS] You will do everyone a favour if you check your "legitimate argument" is not:

- a strawman (ie check what science actually does say in eg IPCC WG1, rather than what someone tells you it says)

- cherry picking data. The other common denier tactic.

You might also like to run your argument against this list here. If you still think you have a good argument, then please comment on the appropriate thread. Given USA pull out of Paris, some good news would be welcome.

nigelj at 14:22 PM on 6 June 2017

Reflections on the politics of climate change

Factotum @20, I sympathise but republicans don't really want to pollute the planet. The problem is they don't want to do much about people who do pollute the planet, so the end result is probably the same.

nigelj at 14:13 PM on 6 June 2017

Reflections on the politics of climate change

One Planet makes some interesting points, and does a fine job not politicising this. There is something true about the spoilt child syndrome evident in some adults, and its associated lack of long term horizons, lack of rationality, and its ego centric nature.

In my observation certain individuals and groups are very belief focussed, and are taking increasingly entrenched positions. Some people hang onto beliefs, and need them to centre their lives, more so than other people. The problem being beliefs are sometimes found to be wrong or untenable any more, and this can be terrifying. Maybe substitute sustainable development goals, for some of those tired, old beliefs

nigelj at 13:40 PM on 6 June 2017

Donald Trump vs Paris Climate Agreement

Well said young guy. So much more mature and thoughtful than what we are getting from certain other people.

Trump's main objection appears to be that China is allowed to continue with coal power for some years and this is an unfair deal.

My immediate reaction is this is not unfair to America or other countries like mine. America has contributed more per per capita to emissions than China (as has my country) so I dont see this as an unfair deal for China to get an exemption for a limited period.

Even if Trump can argue that there is some unfairness, or something less than ideal, it just seems so petty, and like the complaining of a spoilt child.

It's also better to keep China in the agreement, and this justifies treading carefully with China. America should see this as a win for America, by having a big nation in the agreement, because it will ultimately be of benefit to future generations of americans. This justifies the negotiated deal with China.

And basically cuts are voluntary and no special or excessive requirements were put on America. So all this looks suspiciously like more anti China thinking from Trump.

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