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Evan at 08:19 AM on 24 May 2017SkS Analogy 5 - Linear, Non-linear, and Coastal Flooding
Thank you Nigel for your observations and writing about your own experiences.
I thought we were looking at a quadratic sort of curve as opposed to exponential...
The original point of this analogy was to educate people about the difference between linear and non-linear trends. For many readers of SkS this is obvious, but is likely a new concept to non-technical readers. I simply chose sea-level rise to illustrate this, so that when they read/hear/see the concept of non-linear being used elsewhere, they have some familiarity with how it differs from linear. The analogy morphed into what it is, but I was not intentending to to write an authoritative essay on expected sea-level rise.
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nigelj at 07:49 AM on 24 May 2017SkS Analogy 5 - Linear, Non-linear, and Coastal Flooding
Humanity is used to stable and slow rates of sea level rise, and I think we undersetimate the problems of accelerating sea level rise, and humanity is in for a rude multi generational shock.
Consider for the past couple of centuries, sea level rise has been pretty slow around 100 - 200 mm century, until later last century anyway. In my city buildings have been designed with this slow trend in mind, and its been assumed it would be a roughly linear trend, and also on the basis of general storm flooding in mind, with certain floor levels above ground level, and a building life of somewhere from 50-80 years. By the time sea level has risen significantly by 180 mm over a century or so, buildings have been protected by their floor levels, and reached the end of their natural lives, in the vast majority of cases.
Flood frequencies have also been predicatable and constant over time.The slow rate of change in sea level and flood events has made planning predictable, and problems have been generally limited. Floods are of course terrible, but have generally been one big one per 100 years and now this is all changing.
This has all now changed with the understanding sea level rise is going to accelerate. It is of course already changing in places like Florida which are low lying and experiencing significant accelerating sea level rise combined with flood events etc. With 500mm sea level rise by end of this century plenty of buildings will need to be replaced before they reach the end of their natural lives. With 1000 mm the problem increases.
Increasing numbers of floods due to other facets of climate change adds to this problem and also interacts with sea level rise itself making things worse. Florida and Miami in particular are good examples.
But that is just the first stage of sea level rise, affecting existing buildings this century. New buildings will then presumably be planned with some sort of accelerating sea level rise trend in mind. I thought we were looking at a quadratic sort of curve as opposed to exponential, by the way, but the analogy of compound interest is still a good.
But nobody is sure exactly what the longer term rate of sea level change will be, so how high do you design buildings above ground level? This is not so easy to say, and will have to be based on a guess at the most likely trend over the life of the building probably the middle IPCC estimates. It will lead to complex planning zones with certain requirements.
But its not just buildings as you have to plan roads and drains and drains generally have longer lives than buildings and stop functioning when water levels rise. So it gets hard to work out how to plan.
And how far inland do communities retreat to in an uncertain changing sea level rise scenario? My government has already ruled out governments building barriers, so it's a question of organised retreat, apparently. Again it will require an assessment of building life, and infrastructure life against a guesstimate at the most likely rate of sea level rise (probably taking the middle scenario). And who is going to want to calculate and enforce all this? It will be politically contentions, and full of mistaken judgements. The process could go on for centuries, in some sort of staged retreat one part of a city at a time gradually hopping inland, or alternatively building barriers that themselves will not last forever.
And do cities plan for sea level rise a century ahead leading to a multiple staged retreat, or do they look at several centuries and put larger areas of land off limits?
It will dislocate and cost communities physically, economically, and will have all sorts of socio- economic implications as land prices collapse, and people loose major assets. Nobody is going to want to buy low lying properties, or insure against sea level rise, and governments (tax payers) will as usual end up bailing people out. I think they will have to. It will however become politically contentious, and a drain on government resources for many centuries.
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Evan at 02:07 AM on 24 May 2017SkS Analogy 5 - Linear, Non-linear, and Coastal Flooding
Thank you for the comments JWR. Your points are well taken. These analogies will be evolving as we get feedback, so when I rework this I will consider your input. I also understand that the sea-level analysis is overly simplistic.
That said, I still maintain that salaries exhibit the effect I was looking for: the increase is proportional to the thing itself, whether the driving force is inflation, promotion, or something else. By contrast, aging is a constant for everytone. This basic differentiation is likely new to many people. You are obviously very well educated on these matters, but the main goal of the analogies is to introduce scientific concepts to the lay person.
Thanks for your input and suggestions.
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JWRebel at 01:32 AM on 24 May 2017SkS Analogy 5 - Linear, Non-linear, and Coastal Flooding
A better example of exponential growth would have been body weight from conception to puberty, set off against age. Salaries rise mostly with inflation, and are not a real example of growth. There are lots of good explanations of exponential growth floating around. Defining 0% growth as 3mm/annum does not seem to me very good practice. Discussions around GDP growth also exhibit tendency, to talk about 0% GDP when they mean %0 growth, or even worse, decreasing GDP when they mean the second order derivative is decreasing down from 2.5% to 1.7%.
Note also that thermal water expansion is (almost) linear for the relevant temperature ranges.
Omitted from the complicating sea-level effects: stronger (c.q. weaker) currents; stronger tidal action (more water); gravity (less ice mass pulls water elsewhere); crustal rebounding (displacing water).
By the way, in the ancient world (Babylonia, Sumer) they also expressed interest and exponential growth in terms of doubling time. Most agricultural debts were annulled after the first doubling, regardless of how much principle remained. Doubling time is actually a more natural way to think, because it also gives an intuitive grasp of the limits to infinite doubling, the magic of compound interest, etc.
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Evan at 00:56 AM on 24 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
Thanks HK for the info and the education. I have a lot of studying to do.
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John Hartz at 23:07 PM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Chriskoz:
More "hot-off-the-press" news about SLR...
Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990 by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, May 22, 2017
PS - If you have not already done so, you may want to communicate your concerns about Peter Hannam's article directly to him.
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chriskoz at 22:42 PM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
NOAA SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS recently published is a nice easy-to-read yet very comprehensive SLR summary and prediction until y2200.
Jump staraight to page 22 - Figure 8 & Table 4 - to learn the precis of their projections. Only a bit higher than IPCC for RCP2.5 but more than twice higher for higher emission scenarios, esp. RCP8.5.
But their 6 scenarios in table 4 have very sharply defined upper bounds. E.g.: middle range Intermediate scenario (1.0 m SLR by 2100) hasd only 17% hance of excceeding in RCP8.5 emissions. Extreme scenario (2.5 m) is very unlikely - only 0.1% chance of at least such SLR in RCP8.5. I feel like they underestimated the uncertainties in icesheet stability in that scenarion.
Nonetheless higher SLR than IOPCC, even though somewhat conservative IMO. So, I don't understand the alarming and somewhat exaggerated news about it, like this one by Peter Hannam in smh. Peter quotes the SLR values 2.7 metres as "plausible". I don't even understand where that number came from as I cannot find it in the study in question. But I see the number 2.8m as the central estimate of Intermediate scenario by y2200 (table 5) which is the first such estimate AFAIK.
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HK at 22:32 PM on 23 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
Evan:
The behaviour of other greenhouse gases doesn’t matter if you know their forcings beforehand and want to convert them to CO2eq. If the net forcing increases by, say, 1 watt/m2, that can be translated to a ~20% increase of CO2eq regardless of which GHG or combination of GHGs that actually causes this forcing. Therefore, calculating the CO2eq should be relatively straight forward if you know what forcings to include.
Translating a certain forcing to another GHGeq is harder because it requires data about the behaviour of that particular GHG, and they are all different.BTW, the forcing data I used are available via links on James Hansens site. There you can find both graphs and tables of the forcings as well as concentration data for CO2, CH4, N2O and much more.
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Tom Curtis at 13:33 PM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
PS inline@11, Joe's argument is worse than that. Haile et al make specific predictions about the impact of climate change in three crops. They allow that "...some farming changes—such as improved irrigation or genetically modified crops, or more sustainable practices like increased organic production or tilling less—could help offset some climate-induced losses" (from article linked above). Without specific quantification, it is consistent with Haile et al that those offsets could more than compensate for the climate related losses. As such, Haile et al represents a prediction about a specific difficulty, without a claim that we will be ruined by it - let alone that it will lead to a catastrophe. Consequently, when Joe says that Haile et al's conclusions "... have a striking similarity to the Paul Ehrlich et al conclusions", he is guilty of massive exaggeration.
Taking that into account, his argument form is really, "x predicted negative consequences in the future, that did not arise, therefore, any predictions of negative consequences in the future of any nature, and no matter how well supported are false". It is likely, although we have no specific evidence of that, that he makes a specific exception for economic predictions of ruination premised on action to mitigate climate change. That is, like many climate change deniers he may subscribe to the principle that a free market economy is so robust that it can generate growth regardless of adverse circumstances except for the adverse circumstances of any spefic policy they happen to disagree with.
Moderator Response:[PS] Give him chance please.
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dieharder at 13:24 PM on 23 May 2017Temp record is unreliable
No, Tom Curtis. Your graphs do not satisfy my "quibbles" — not in the slightest. What I am looking for are the "corrections" that were applied to the original data (which clearly showed a warming hiatus) in order to eliminate the warming hiatus. These data adjustments, as I stated in a previous posting, totally eliminated the warming pause and about doubled the warming rate. Now, before negating me again on this claim and being too quick to delete this posting, be advised that this was part of the introductory statement made by Zeke Hausfather on the video Recent Ocean Warming has been Underestimated. In his words, "... they increased the amounts of warming that we have experienced pretty significantly. They roughly doubled the temperature trend since 1998 compared to the old versions of the datasets." So who am I supposed to believe, you or him!?
Now from the email newsletters I get from the "denier" community along with a few online news articles about whistleblowers and NASA and NOAA fighting the Congressional investigation, I believe I have some insight as to why you can't come up with the dataset showing the adjustments that did away with the warming hiatus. NOAA simply refused to cooperate with the investigation and witheld the subpeonad email communications and scientific data. Since this was still during the Obama administration, the Whitehouse would not enforce their compliance. Therefore, the world may never know just what killed the hiatus at NOAA, and I'm supposed to accept their "data" as "overwhelming evidence with 97% consensus". — Give me a break! If this is your version of science, you can keep it!
Finally, I would like an apology from you for your statement "Rather than admit that gross error, he quibbles about the data source, and about the change in the NOAA temperature data set detailed in Karl et al (2015)." We know now that my claim was not erroneous at all. Either that or Zeke Hausfather made the same "gross error". Also, I resent your use of the term "quibbles" as it gives readers the impression that my concerns are over trivia as opposed to the primary issue of assessing the amount of global warming we are experiencing.
Moderator Response:[PS] More gross violations of policy from already banned user. No responses please.
Update - this latest incarnation now removed. Why someone who has no intention of abiding by comments policy post here is mystery.
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nigelj at 12:15 PM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
So according to "Joe" science gets some environmental things wrong, so all environmental things must be wrong. On that basis we might as well give up on all fields of science.
Some people are just plain frustrating and childish.
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ubrew12 at 11:27 AM on 23 May 2017Trump's Fox News deputy national security adviser fooled him with climate fake news
Fifty years ago, the Oval Office told the rest of America that Climate Change was a threat we needed to take seriously. Now Fox News can drop a faux-pamphlet into the Oval Office in-box, and they are ready to pronounce it to the rest of us as the 'new truth'? It's the same office! We heard them the first them, did they hear them? I'm certain the Science community did not change its mind, so what's going on?
Bret Stephens (he of infamy) suggested in the NY Times that the blind fear the 9/11 hijackers gave birth to grew, it enveloped Iraq and Afghanistan, and last Fall enveloped the White House. And the 'crater' they left there doesn't know Climate Change, or Climate Science, or any Science at all.
Stephens: "Maybe 2016 was the Flight 93 election... Maybe the pilots are dead. Maybe the passengers failed to storm the cockpit. Maybe the hijackers reached their target by landing on the White House after all."
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John Hartz at 10:41 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Joe: You state:
Haile is using a different methodology and assumptions, etc., yet the conclusions have a striking similarity to the Paul Ehrlich et al conclusions. Why is a re-hash of those failed studies and predictions any more valid?
If Haile uses a different methodology and assumptions than Erlich did, Haile's study cannot, by definition, be a rehash of Erlich's work.
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joe - at 09:42 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
"someone once made a bad prediction, therefore all predictions are wrong". Can you show that Haile et al are using the same methodology and assumptions that have proved erroneous in the past? This would be a useful contribution to the discussion which is otherwise a bit handwavy.
Rob - True - Haile is using a different methodology and assumptions, etc., yet the conclusions have a striking similarity to the Paul Ehrlich et al conclusions. Why is a re-hash of those failed studies and predictions any more valid?
Moderator Response:[PS] Different methodologies and assumptions means that it is not a rehash. You argument remains that because it produces predictions like Ehrlich, it must be wrong. This is a logical fallacy. Demonstrating problems with Hailes method or assumption would more constructive.
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Evan at 09:14 AM on 23 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
Thanks for the sample HK. So in summary, you are using the same, simple logarithmic relationship that holds for CO2, even though some of the other GHGs have different behavior.
Ravenken, I hope you've learned something from this inquiry and also see why I have not yet woven CO2-eq into any of my plots. I will work on doing that in the future.
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HK at 08:47 AM on 23 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
My calculation of CO2eq from the total man-made forcing in 2015 (excluding sun and volcanoes) was done like this:
Forcing relative to 1850: 2.155 w/m2 (sum of columns 2-7) Number of CO2-doublings: 2.155 / 3.96 = 0.544 Rel. increase of CO2eq since 1850: 2 0.544 = 1.458 CO2eq in 2015: 285.2 ppm x 1.458 = 415.8 ppm Same approach without aerosols and albedo, but the starting point was 3.354 w/m2.
I assumed a constant logarithmic relationship of 3.96 w/m2 per doubling of CO2, but there are probably some very minor changes over that range. The relationship between concentration and forcing for other GHGs are different because they unlike CO2 haven’t achieved band-saturation in the central part of their absorption bands. The forcings of some CFCs are almost linear to their concentrations because they are so rare compared to CO2. There is also a rather complex relationship between CH4 and N2O because their absorption bands partly overlap.
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joe - at 08:00 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
[Rob P] How can projections for future decades be proven wrong now? The study authors used global production data from 1961–2013 to reach their conclusion.
Your comment does seem to be sloganeering (a violation of the comments policy) but if you can provide some examples/details of the prior studies you claim are wrong a genuine discussion with others can ensue.
And please note that sloganeering may result in comments being deleted.
Rob - This study is simply a variation of the numerous paul elrich predictions which have been demostratively wrong - My point and question is why does this study have any greater predictive value when it only a rehash of the multiple prior studies.
Its a fair and valid question
Moderator Response:[PS] This is still heading into "someone once made a bad prediction, therefore all predictions are wrong". Can you show that Haile et al are using the same methodology and assumptions that have proved erroneous in the past? This would be a useful contribution to the discussion which is otherwise a bit handwavy.
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joe - at 07:54 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Or, if this isn't correct, could you explain what it is specifically that makes you question the validity of Haile et al (2017)?
What makes me question the validity of the Haile study - Its the similarity of conclusions with the Paul Ehrlich predictions, et al. Simply put, numerous studies have predicted the same and/or similar results, yet all have been wrong to date.
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nigelj at 07:01 AM on 23 May 2017Trump's Fox News deputy national security adviser fooled him with climate fake news
Excellent, thorough analysis.The trouble is many people like Trump in particular are too proud to admit they were wrong, or fooled. The fate of the planet hangs on the fact many people just can't re-process information rationally, and move on.
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Evan at 06:55 AM on 23 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
Thanks HK for the reference. This is great. Just one clarification. I am assuming that the forcings listed in this table increase logarithmicly with CO2 concentration (assuming same relationship between CO2 concentration and ultimate warming). Because this table gives forcings, to convert back to CO2 equivalent I assume that I have to use exponential functions of the ratio of current forcings relative to the forcing at 1850, the date for which we have the reference CO2 concentration.
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MA Rodger at 06:00 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
joe,
You ask what is different with the study-under-discussion (Haile et al 2017) that makes it valid when the pedictions of Paul Ehrlich and other doom-mongers of the past have proved to be invalid.
I would assume your question is not uniquely aimed at Haile et al (2017) but that you would likely question the validity of many other papers in an identical manner. If this assumption is correct, could you set out the characteristics of this broader work that leads you to question its validity?
Or, if this isn't correct, could you explain what it is specifically that makes you question the validity of Haile et al (2017)?
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HK at 05:38 AM on 23 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
Evan:
This table shows how the most important forcings have changed with time.
If you add all the GHGs, tropospheric aerosols and surface albedo (TA+SA) for each year you will get a time series of man-made forcings from 1850 to 2015. Convert those numbers to "CO2-doublings" by dividing them by 3.96 (the forcing from 2 x CO2 used here) and you can calculate the CO2eq for each year relative to 1850, which had 285.2 ppm CO2 according to this table.
With this approach, I get CO2eq = 416 ppm in 2015 if aerosols and albedo are included, and 513 ppm with GHGs alone. -
Larry E at 05:06 AM on 23 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
I appreciate the dialog. Here are further thoughts.
1. "Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good ... a meaningful price on carbon sooner rather than later."
I see this a question of workability rather than perfection, and believe Fee & Dividend won't work out as promoted, for reasons already explained.
If a carbon price is the way to go, just put on a price but without the dividend. The Canadian federal government is moving that way with a plan that does not have a dividend: https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/pan-canadian-framework.html
2. "Once implemented [fee and dividend] can be improved upon as needed."
Obviously back-sliding as well as improvement could occur. The "dividend" part of the arrangement seems to me make backsliding more likely. We need to get to zero fossil fuel carbon emissions, which means zero dividend. Early on, people will become dependent on the dividend, and won't want it cut off. Politically, that can be expected to maintain a continuing carbon "fix," a continuing addiction at some level. Alaska's permanent fund dividend (PFD) (essentially a negative tax) is an example such pressures. The state has been in a severe fiscal crisis for several years and cannot balance its budget, yet cutting back or eliminating the PFD is a political third-rail that has proven untouchable.
3. "Fee and Dividend is well worth a try as it beats not having anything (as in the U.S.) or just having something inadequate (as the ETS in the EU)."
We need a complete solution, even if it is a combination of things. If Fee & Dividend is muscled through by itself it is likely to be perceived as "the" solution and either greatly delay or block more effective measures. (Apart from the fact that I don't think F&D will perform as promoted.)
4. As said in my last comment, the target we need to hit is changing year-by-year as we have continued with high emissions. We need zero FF emissions by 2035-2040 (actually should have been by now, really) as Anderson has well demonstrated (see URL in my last comment). CCL needs to lead the target, not aim at where it appears to be or was.
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John Hartz at 04:25 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Joe: Unless you can precisely define what you mean by "valid" and answer the questions that I have posed, your global assertions disguised as questions are nothing more than sloganeering which is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. If I weren't conversing with you, I would come down hard on you as a Moderator.
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joe - at 04:12 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
I will repeat my question - What makes this study any different from the similar & previous studies and predictions. Simply cloaking the predictions in "science" doenst make it any more valid.
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John Hartz at 03:35 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Joe: You state:
John - yes the study should be judged based on its one merits - yet it is basically a rehash of numerous other studies that have been proved wrong,
How did you arrive at your assertion that the paper Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply is basically a rehash of numerous other studies that have been proved wrong?
Please list the studies that you are referring to and provide links to them. Have you personally read all of the studies that you are referring to? How do you know that these studies have been proved wrong? Please document the source(s) of your conclusions.
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michael sweet at 03:20 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Joe,
And yet we have sent men to the moon and built computers. Since scientists have made many millions of predictions it is easy to find some that were incorrect. As John says, you have to evaluate this prediction on the merits of the data they provide to support their claims.
You have not even commented on the merits of the article, you just make this ad hominum claim that all scientific predictions are incorrect. Your second post is sloganeering and against the comments policy.
I will note that Ehrlich's claims were never scientific consensus. This article is not consensus yet, but there are many dangers from warming (like sea level rise and extended drought) that are.
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joe - at 00:35 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
John - yes the study should be judged based on its one merits - yet it is basically a rehash of numerous other studies that have been proved wrong, In fact, just the opposite has occurred based on advancements in real science.
my question remains - What makes this study any more valid that all the other previous studies that have been proved wrong, such as Ehrlich frequent predictions.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] How can projections for future decades be proven wrong now? The study authors used global production data from 1961–2013 to reach their conclusion.
Your comment does seem to be sloganeering (a violation of the comments policy) but if you can provide some examples/details of the prior studies you claim are wrong a genuine discussion with others can ensue.
And please note that sloganeering may result in comments being deleted.
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John Hartz at 00:12 AM on 23 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Joe: The study that you are referring to is cited below. It should and will be judged on its own merits.
Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply by Mekbib G. Haile, Tesfamicheal Wossen, Kindie Tesfaye, and Joachim von Braun, Journal of Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, May 6, 2017
Abstract
We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period 1961–2013. Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1–3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops—especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world’s key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes— in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation— during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security. -
joe - at 23:43 PM on 22 May 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Climate change, and its impacts on extreme weather and temperature swings, is projected to reduce global production of corn, wheat, rice and soybeans by 23 percent in the 2050s, according to a new analysis.
What makes this study any more valid that the the numerous studies and predictions put forth by Paul Ehrlich and others with similar predictions
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BaerbelW at 21:28 PM on 22 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
Larry - for me this is a case of "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good". Which is why I think that CCL's Carbon Fee and Dividend is well worth a try as it beats not having anything (as in the U.S.) or just having something inadequate (as the ETS in the EU). Once implemented it can be improved upon as needed. Not having anything cannot really be the best path forward in my opinion.
As mentioned in the article, I'm active with CCL in Germany and thereby Europe. So, we are having discussions of how something like and as close to Carbon Fee and Dividend could be made to work within or alongside the ETS. Overall, solutions will most likely differ per region and country, but I really hope that we'll get a meaningful price on carbon sooner rather than later. We "simply" have to stop using our shared atmosphere as a free dumping ground for our CO2 emissions.
Just my 2 cents.
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grindupBaker at 16:16 PM on 22 May 2017Why is Greenland's ice loss accelerating?
The incorrect comment #2 RSVP and responses of John Cross both miss the most overwhelming piece of science regarding this fallacy of melting ice cooling the ocean's well-mixed layer and this is ironic because the piece ignored is the mechanism of Earth's Energy Balance and the massively overwhelming quantity of the Sun's input and Earth's cooling output to all other energy sources and sinks in the ecosphere, the very essence of "global warming" that this site and discussion everywhere is all about. The details (but unquantified) in this case are:
1) Ice melts and, lets say, spreads over a surface ocean layer of several hundred thousand square kilometres that is colder than it would have been had the ice not melted onto and into it.
2) So now (Stefan Boltzmann t**4 and all that) that ocean layer transmits less LWR up than it would have been had the ice not melted onto and into it. I should think less evaporation and sensible also.
3) None of this affects the solar radiation input so the ice melting and this spreading over a much vaster area than if it had stayed as ice mostly hidden from the Sun by other ice above simply increases Earth's energy imbalance at TOA over that ocean area. The sun warms that colder water back to whatever average temperature was the balanced average temperature for that region, as though ice had not melted and ocean surface not cooled.To put it simply, melting the ice simply spreads it out thinly over an enormous area and makes it vulnerable to the overpowering energy of the Sun, no sustained cooling occurs. That concept is a fallacy. First point of quantification is how long it takes Sun to warm 12 months of ice loss back to the prior ocean surface temperature. Obviously, if it takes the Sun 10 years, or even 2 years, to warm 12 months of ice loss back to the prior ocean surface temperature then I am incorrect and there is sustained cooling. However, I did a quick calculation a few months ago by spreading the annual Greenland ice loss over that famous Cold Blob (rather arbitrary I know) and found that it takes Sun 7 months to warm 12 months of ice loss back to the prior ocean surface temperature. Therefore there cannot be any cooling of the ocean's well-mixed layer by melting of ice at a rate less than about double the present rate. It isn't just a matter of the cooling being a tiny portion of OHC +ve anomaly, the cooling is not happening at all.
Second point of quantification is how deep the ice melt mixes. I didn't mix it at all and I only computed it for whatever depth (175 mm) matches 350 Gt / yr ice loss ans a 2,000,000 km**2 spreading area, which gives 175 mm depth of non-mixed ice water. I can see that mixing to various depths would slow the rate at which Sun re-heats it but I didn't do a selection of semple computations. Somebody might want to do that some time.
If the melt water from ice plummeted down into the thermocline in the North Atlantic where temperature is >0 degrees then I can see it cooling the ocean but I seriously doubt that fresh water does that.
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Tom Curtis at 12:51 PM on 22 May 2017Temp record is unreliable
cosmoswarrior/coolearth/diehard appears to not like my pointing out @406 the gross error in his claim that "...the temperature history during the last two decades of the 20th century was rewritten to double the rate of temperature increase". Rather than admit that gross error, he quibbles about the data source, and about the change in the NOAA temperature data set detailed in Karl et al (2015). To deal with his quibbles, here is a comparison of raw and adjusted data in the new data set in figure 2 of Rove et al (2015):
The top panel shows the difference between prior adjusted data set, and the new adjusted data set. It is very clear that use of the new data sets make almost no difference to the trend. In the bottom panel is a comparison of the new adjusted data set to the raw data set. Post 1945 there is almost no difference, and in particular it is clear that claims that "...the temperature history during the last two decades of the 20th century was rewritten to double the rate of temperature increase" are at best massively misinformed, and at its source, a lie.
With regard to the disappearing of the "hiatus", that comes about in Karl et al (2015) not because they use a new method of adjustments, but because they use two new data sets. Specifically, they switch from ERSSTv3 to ERSSTv4 for marine temperatures, and from GHCNv3 to the ISTI database for land temperatures. The later represents a switch to a larger database with a more extensive coverage. It represents more data. The change in ERSST versions involves, "...updated and substantially more complete input data from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) release 2.5; revised empirical orthogonal teleconnections (EOTs) and EOT acceptance criterion; updated sea surface temperature (SST) quality control procedures; revised SST anomaly (SSTA) evaluation methods;
updated bias adjustments of ship SSTs using the Hadley Centre Nighttime Marine Air Temperature dataset version 2 (HadNMAT2); and buoy SST bias adjustment not previously made in v3b." It's effect on the NOAA temperature record is discussed in detail by Kevin Cowtan here. It has also been discussed by Zeke Hausfather as part of a more comprehensive discussion of the NOAA updates.Finally, the "hiatus" is not defined as a period of zero or negative trend in Global Means Surface Temperature (GMST). Rather, it is defined as a period in which the zero trend is within the error margin of the observed trend. As it happens, the long term trend has been within the error margin of the observed trend through out all periods considered to be part of the hiatus. That means, logically, there is no more reason to consider the trend to be zero than there is to consider it to have continued unabated. Indeed, given that all purported periods of the "hiatus" are parts of periods in which there is a statistically significant positive trend, there is more reason in those periods to consider them to be periods or warming rather than stasis. In short, the "hiatus" was at best only a statistical artifact such that a small change in the observed trend (approximately one standard error) over the period of the "hiatus" makes it transparently an artifact. That so small a change can make it "disappear" shows it to have been, at best, an artifact all along.
Moderator Response:[PS] I think this serial spammer is data-resistant but thanks for clarifying the matter for the benefit of other readers.
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nigelj at 12:09 PM on 22 May 2017Study: inspiring action on climate change is more complex than you might think
Dcrickett @6, yes people are complex, but as humans we look for patterns. There's a correlation between religious fundamentalism and climate science denial. There are of course exceptions, but the question is why the correlation, and I have taken a stab at it above.
I agree it's important climate denial is looked at from various different points of view, and nothing is simply assumed. There are many reasons for climate denialism discussed on this website, and all seem compelling,so it may just be a combination of things. I would add it's an important decision whether to leave fossil fuels in the ground, and it takes time for people to mentally work this through, and all the time there is a campaign of lies against the science hanging over us as a distraction.
Doctrinaire single minded workaholics. I'm not entirely sure how this relates to the issue, but having suffered from this, and severe burnout, I'm now a fan of balance and moderation. But many great achievers are doctrinaire single minded workaholics, so is it entirely wrong? People are complex, and life is complex as well.
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Dcrickett at 11:20 AM on 22 May 2017Study: inspiring action on climate change is more complex than you might think
I have a grandniece who is a young-earth-believing fundamentalist Christian, a recently degreed MD, an ardent feminist and a climate activist (activism limited by demands of a medical internship).
People can be complex. I prefer complex people to doctrinaire whatevers.
Regarding climate matters, I am glad that denialism is being seriously studied from a variety of approaches. The road to Hell is paved by doctrinaire single-minded workaholics.
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Larry E at 10:40 AM on 22 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
BaerbelW, thanks for your replies and the link to the REMI study.
1. The first part of your #16 presumes rational behavior, but it is well established that people don't behave rationally concerning consumption.
2. The second part of #16 and #17.1 regard "cap and trade," but my comment was explicitly that what we need is a "cap WITHOUT trade."
3. Regarding #17.2, a rapidly rising fee also results in rapidly rising dividends. It seems likely that the economy and behaviors will adjust to that, just as they do to other inflation. The dividend facilitates that. It is a huge gamble (at best) that this mechanism will adequately change behavior.
4. Regarding #17.3, the rebound effect should be casually dismissed. Also, I find the REMI report to be non-transparent concerning whatever assumptions (e.g. rational consumer behavior?) are inherent in it, through the three models that were employed. Also, how the economic feedbacks for both the fee and the dividend are handled for the various segments of society is critical, but is not disclosed.
5. Regarding #17.4, will the FF companies end up selling _enough_ less to solve the problem? That is a crux. It could be that they would end up selling about the same or somewhat (but not enough) less, or fall far short. From the REMI report example on gasoline prices, the 90-cent per gallon increase by the end of the first decade is relatively minor, as is the $1.80 increase after two decades. That would still leave US prices far lower than in Europe, for comparison, and the steady $10 per year increase in the CCL plan gets eaten away by inflation to a significant degree.
As a final point, the REMI study shows a 52% CO2 emissions decline (if correct) by 2035. However, the CCL plan and the study date back a few years and BAU year-on-year since then has made the climate change challenge. In looking at the remaining carbon budget for either a 1.5 or 2.0 oC increase, we need to be at essentially zero emission by 2035-2040. (See Kevin Anderson's "Laggards or Leaders" presentation, https://play.kth.se/media/28+mars/0_aej506wl, as one recent example.) Fee & Dividend doesn't get us there for this budget reason, as well as the ones above.
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Evan at 07:46 AM on 22 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
I agree with you that CO2eq is the appropriate data to use. However, I have not been able to identify a source to use that melds all of the GHGs together into CO2eq, so for now I am using CO2. Once I identify such a source, I will update the plot in the analogy and begin using CO2eq. I don't think it will change the message, and at most make a small adjustment to the time delay. But I do agree that CO2eq is the appropriate metric to use.
Thanks for pointing this out.
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BaerbelW at 05:23 AM on 22 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
Some more information:
1. Increased incomes can lead to increased energy use. Carbon Fee and
Dividend is designed to prevent this.2. The rapidly rising fee makes increased energy use much less likely, and pushes investment away from artificially cheap FF.
3. Modeling of 160 sectors of the US economy, cross referenced with behaviors observed historically from income and price changes, shows there is no rebound that pushes up emissions.
4. Before significant economy-wide transition sets in, some carbon-fuel companies may earn more while selling less, but they have to diversify to avoid a steep fall-off in their profits.
5. Modeling shows faster rate of emissions reductions than from any other known policy.
For a lot more information, check the REMI-study:
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/remi-report/So, from what I can tell, the alleged rebound effect is a myth.
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Ravenken at 02:21 AM on 22 May 2017SkS Analogy 4 - Ocean Time Lag
How come CO2eq is not used?
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BaerbelW at 18:26 PM on 21 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
Larry E @15
CCL's FAQ about carbon fee and dividend touch on at least some of your objections:
Q: Why will citizens change to low-emissions technologies if they are given a dividend to pay for the increasing price of fossil fuels?
A: With Carbon Fee and Dividend legislation, it is clear to citizens that prices for fossil fuels will go up every year. Part of their motivation is to save as much of their dividend check as possible rather than spending it on more expensive fossil fuels. They can do this by changing over to energy efficient lighting and appliances, upgrading their insulation or windows, replacing that old oil furnace with a geothermal heat pump, etc. When it comes time to get another vehicle, they would consider one that gets better gas mileage or an all-electric vehicle. They can then buy clean electricity (where available) through their utility to charge their car, getting them off fossil fuels altogether. The motivation is to reduce cost in the years to come. The same is true for investors and for fossil fuel companies: as the fee increases, and the cost of doing business rises with it, the rising dividend will ensure that the true cost of doing business will be paid by those in that business.
Q: Why is Carbon Fee and Dividend better than Cap and Trade?
A: Cap and Trade was used by some early signers of the Kyoto Protocol, the first international treaty to address climate change. Though most early adopters tried hard to make it work, Cap and Trade was not easy to understand, energy prices swung wildly, consumers paid the whole cost of the experiment, and it was not very effective in reducing total CO2 emissions. Much of the reason for this was because of offset credits. Power providers could buy offset credits that allowed them to burn more fossil fuels, but the offset credits did not actually reduce total CO2 emissions. Carbon traders and offset investors made lots of money. Utilities and manufacturers had increased costs that were passed on to the consumer. No real reduction in CO2 was achieved and the consumer was stuck with the bill. Carbon Fee and Dividend, on the other hand, is easy for everyone to understand, it gives the end consumer 100 percent of the proceeds of the carbon fee to help pay for the transition to clean energy, there are no offset credits or carbon credits to manipulate and no one technology is singled out to win or lose. Only with inaction over several years do you become disadvantaged. With action you become more efficient and competitive. The free market picks the winning and losing technologies. Low-emissions energy and efficiency measures become cost competitive as prices rise for fossil fuels. As we transition to green technologies and green energies, CO2 emissions are reduced. Investments in green energy spur the development of innovative technologies that we export to other countries. America regains leadership in the green revolution.
Hope this helps!
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Larry E at 17:46 PM on 21 May 2017Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally
The CCL approach at first appear seductive; however, I have concluded that it will result in more or less "business as usual" (and likely more). The tax rebate will result in a rebound effect with the population segment that is of less than average wealth. And, for the those of above average wealth (and particularly for those in, say, the top 20%) a tax will have negligible effect — and these are the people who for example fly the most often and the farthest.
The net effect, I believe, will be on average more of: consumption of stuff, travel, size of dwellings, etc.
So, I think the solution is instead to put a cap (with no trade, and no C tax) on fossil fuel production and imports (on a C-content basis). That gets the matter down to the absolute basics. Anything else is fiddling around so that it looks like we're doing something while actually still doing the same damage or worse. The CCL is a ruse, even if a popular one, in my opinion. Let's get real!
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nigelj at 12:37 PM on 21 May 2017Study: inspiring action on climate change is more complex than you might think
Factotum @3, I think you are right that climate denialism goes together with religious fundamentalism. In addition to your research link, one of the leading climate deniers in my country is a christian fundamentalist and book writer and magazine editor. I'm not going to give him any advertising by naming him. And he is far from the only person I can think of. So my anecdotal evidence is consistent with the research.
One can only speculate about why this is so, because religious fundamentalism does not seem incompatible with looking after the earth or anything particular in the bible old testament. It may just be thinking that the earth was created fundamentally fixed in its processes, and we are temporary passengers before the second coming, and anything that erodes confidence in this is painful to contemplate.
Fundamentalists do also include a fair share of blue collar people left behind by globalisation, who probably resent and distrust the elite who are afterall associated with identifying the climate problem. I'ts a complex web of social, economic, politically conservative, educational and ideological factors.
However I dont think all christians are climate sceptics by a long way. Pew research find the vast majority (80%) of people in Latin America are worried about climate change and want something done (which implies they accept the science) as below. Now Latin America has a lot of catholics so they seem to accept the science and want something done. So there is quite a pronounced difference in attitude between cathloics and fundamentalists.
www.randalolson.com/2014/09/13/who-are-the-climate-change-deniers/
The following website has some interesting data (with original sources) on the relationship of climate denial to politics and religion. It notes that In America 80% of athiests accept climate change, and this number drops with people with any form of religious convictions, but more so fundamentalists.
But clearly not all athiests accept climate science either. Libertarians tend to lean towards athiesm in my experience and are also generally very sceptical about climate science in my country. I'm thinking of a libertarian leaning political party. So political and world view ideology can influence climate beliefs.
There would also presumably be athiests with vested business interests, such that the vested interests are compelling to them and take precedence over their scientific outlook.
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/18/what-the-world-thinks-about-climate-change-in-7-charts/
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scruffy_scirocco at 12:01 PM on 21 May 2017Guest post: scrutinising the 31,000 scientists in the OISM Petition Project
I'm curious why 2000 words are devoted to casting suspicion on this list of scholars, in order that it simply be dismissed from the discussion. Then an overwhelming 75 out of 77 respondents from a survey covering more than 10,000 people which got 3000 responses is mis-labeled as "97%" and put forward as proof that there is a scientific consensus on the subject.
By every logic used in this article, the "97%" figure should be laughed out of the room, not used as the basis for a claim.
Moderator Response:[PS]
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
In particular, simply parroting well-worn slogans is of no interest. Be prepared to back your claims rather than demonstrating either poor reading comprehension or a disinterest in understanding unpalatable data and avoid argumentative tone.
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Eclectic at 10:40 AM on 21 May 2017Study: inspiring action on climate change is more complex than you might think
Factotum @3 , you may be right, about the role played by religious fundamentalism in fostering a science-denying attitude about the changes occurring in this planet. See Roy Spencer's strong leaning toward minimizing (in his mind) the amount of global warming going on. And the relatively high level of Christian fundamentalism in the USA has some correlation with the higher than world-average denialism among Americans. It would be a difficult matter to study statistically. For comparison, it would be interesting to see the relative amount of denialism among Christian fundamentalists in Mexico, South America, and perhaps Africa.
I suspect that a greater motivation, at least in the USA, is the anger felt by change-rejecting conservatives — combined with right-wing rejection of governmental regulations, plus ordinary selfishness & lack of compassion for others (especially foreigners).
It is not just Christian fundamentalist theology having a hand. Take for example the (non-Christian) Richard Lindzen who also expresses a belief that this world is a Divine creation, formed as a mechanism which is self-correcting : and which cannot slide into a condition which is unfit for mankind. Presumably this reflects his Old Testament upbringing. [ I am unaware of the degree of denialism in Israel. ]
However, there may also be many people whose thinking is influenced by some amount of "non-religious spiritualism" or subconscious worshipping of an idealized Mother Nature.
Of course, all these factors could be: Horses harnessed together and pulling in the same direction.
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factotum at 08:55 AM on 21 May 2017Study: inspiring action on climate change is more complex than you might think
Perhaps I am wrong, but I think that almost all climate deniers are fundamentalist believers of some sort. I could lay out the reasons for t his, and if someone asks, then I will, but let's assume that I am correct.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/05/29/this-fascinating-chart-on-faith-and-climate-change-denial-has-been-reinforced-by-new-research/?utm_term=.352ae124d2da
You might try this:
Revelation 11:18
And the nations were angry, and thy wrath is come, and the time of the dead, that they should be judged, and that thou shouldest give reward unto thy servants the prophets, and to the saints, and them that fear thy name, small and great; and shouldest destroy them which destroy the earth.And ask ... If you are at the pearly gates, and you claim that you did not know or were in denial, do you think that god will five you a Pass?? Really???
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diehard at 04:18 AM on 21 May 2017Temp record is unreliable
So where is all of this temperature data that shows the "hiatus" isn't real? It's obviously not the GHCN data shown in Comment 406. As Tom Curtis himself points out "there is almost no difference between the raw and adjusted data from 1980 forward". So where is this data with a big enough difference between the raw and adjusted values such that the raw data shows a warming hiatus but the adjusted values do not?
Now, before you delete this question/comment and disable my login, I believe I am asking a simple, straight-forward question that should be easily answerable if in fact the adjusted data is what the elimination of the warming hiatus is based upon. Therefore, if this comment is simply deleted before I receive a satisfactory answer to my question, I will proceed on the basis that no such data exists, and that eliminating the hiatus was based on politics and not science.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please spare us the polemics.
[TD] I can't make sense of your question. Your first sentence would match the rest of your first paragraph if your first sentence instead was "...that shows the 'hiatus' is real?" Tom Curtis showed you data (and you can download it yourself instead of taking Tom's word for it) revealing no such difference. The "hiatus" does not and never has existed.
[DB] This user is just another sock puppet of serial spammer cosmoswarrior/coolearth; accordingly, their posting rights have been rescinded. As will future iterations of this serial spammer.
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Hank11198 at 01:27 AM on 21 May 2017Podcast on National Review & the science of climate science denial
This article makes some good points about climate science denial. However in the subject which is the article “Climate- Change Activists Are the Real Science Deniers” by Oren Cass, May 1, 2017, I was blow away by the admission of Cass in the article that:
“Not so. I addressed these issues in a recent Foreign Affairs essay, in which I called the IPCC “the gold-standard summary,” cited it repeatedly, and adopted its estimate that temperatures could rise by 3 to 4°C this century. My essay further embraced the Obama administration’s “Social Cost of Carbon” analysis and adopted its high-case model for economic cost. But the essay argued that the likely impact of all this was “manageable” rather than “catastrophic.”
I’m certainly not an expert in climate science but consider it a high risk to our future and as a result have tried to educate myself on the subject. From my studies it appears to me there is more than ample evidence that a 2 degree rise will create life-altering problems and that 3 to 4 degrees will not be close to being “manageable”. I’m surprised someone has not brought this up in this discussion.
Cass doesn’t seem to be denying global warming but denying that it will be catastrophic. Guess that depends on the definition of ‘catastrophic’. -
ubrew12 at 22:26 PM on 20 May 2017Study: inspiring action on climate change is more complex than you might think
Mark Twain: "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." To care for Nature you have to make it personal to you. With all the distractions of modern life, there needs to be some prioritizing, in the Educational sphere, that the World 'out there' is not just another 'reality show'. I was struck by an opinion piece in the New York Times, recently, written by a guy who is walking from Southern Africa out to the Middle East, Asia, Siberia, North America, and finally South America, to trace the expansion of humanity outward from 'Eden'. This guy illustrates, in his writing, Twain's quote. Somehow, through Education, we need to impress upon children the fundamental importance of Nature in our lives. I don't see how that can be done without frequent travel to see Nature.
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HK at 22:10 PM on 20 May 2017Temp record is unreliable
NOAAs conclusions about the non-existing "hiatus" have been confirmed by other studies using independent data. Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth explains how they did it here and here.
BTW, the Berkeley Earth surface temperature project was founded by physicist and former climate skeptic Richard Muller to address the most important objections the deniers had to the "official" temperature records. They constructed their own temperature record, which turned out to be very similar to the ones from NOAA, NASA and the British HadCRUT4.
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nigelj at 09:16 AM on 20 May 2017Study: inspiring action on climate change is more complex than you might think
Yes climate science is compelling, proven well beyond reasonable doubt, and we know many of the solutions, but are slow to adopt these. It's like a frustrating log jam. There are several reasons, not least of which is the ongoing cynical, brainwashing campaign of denialism and doubt about the science and also renewable energy, that has worn people down.
We also have general public worries about changing established patterns of behaviour, understandably, and the longer term nature of the problem is perhaps hard for some people to digest.
I agree concentrating on local impacts of climate change brings the issue home quite well. Many people respond better to tangible specifics rather than more global or mathematical or abstract concepts. In fact we need to promote both equally, to reach different mind sets.
However I think the main issue stopping progress is that many individuals are probably reluctant to do much about climate change in terms of their lifestyles and buying choices, in a voluntary sense, because they see the vast majority doing nothing very much, and so perceive their own isolated actions will possibly cost them money and achieve little. It's a sort of stalemate situation or catch 22.
Of course there are individuals who do make the effort to reduce emissions for personal ethical reasons, and because they have taken the time to think about the issues and see a range of advantages, but not enough as yet to motivate the vast majority. Perhaps if the media publicised these people it would help, but I guess theres no big screaming headlines in this, so it doesn't count as news. But they might actually find it does count as news, because I for one am sick of screaming headlines over the latest scandals, and want just some plain, uplifting information.
But to generally break this stalemate pattern of limited action also needs a big push from strong leaders in government and business, and local organisations that set an example in their views and daily lives, as this is visible and provideds leadership.
We also require things like carbon taxes or other legislative rules that send signals to change behaviour. We can also easily make electric cars an attractive option, and it may not require much. This is how other environmental problems in the past have been dealt, with and I cannot see why climate change would be different. The difference is really it's just a bit more complex and there's a bigger sceptical campaign, but the dynamics, psychology, and economic principles and government responsibilities are all much the same as other environmental challenges.
We therefore all need to obviously make some lifestyle choices of our own in a voluntary sense, but also start seriously shaming politicians and business leaders, and force them to set an example, pass some meaningful laws, and stand up to lobby groups.
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