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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 19801 to 19850:

  1. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    OPOF @11, yes I broadly agree with all that. Here are a couple of things that occur to me on your comments:

    Going back to the "helpful and harmful" ideas. You pointed out something broadly like we cannot force people to be helpful, (using the law or other means). This is true at one level, and my immediate reaction was to agree, for example we can't and shouldn't write laws requiring or forcing people to be nice, or donate to charities, or save people in distress. This is all true, because it puts big restrictions on freedom of behaviour and runs into various obvious problems, but on second thoughts there are a couple of other aspects as follows.

    For example there are many cultural conventions where good people generally help people, that are not codified in the law as such, and these are generally accepted as  good conventions. The obvious example is helping people in severe distress, like a medical emergency. In fact we are hardwired to leap in to try to help, according to psychologists.

    And governments "do" often have programmes that aim to help people, like unemployment insurance.  My point is by helping people, for example with unemployment assistance (I'm just picking an obvious example here) we are in effect reducing harm, and this is part of the law and requires people contribute through taxation. So we do accept that governments help people by force of law, interestingly in some situations. Help and harm are in a sense opposite sides of the same coin, and quite closely related.

    It's probably more productive to try to figure out in what ways is it "valid" for governments to try to help people, because there are clearly problems if we go too far, yet not helping people at all is inhumane. I'm personally lead back to the pragmatic response of striking a balance between these positions. As a society we need to formulate some better principles of when we help people using the law, and already do to some extent, for example circumstances beyond their control. If we could crystallise this better, it would reduce partisan in fighting over the issues. But this is getting away from what you are saying.

    Marketing. I kind of expressed my views on that in a previous post. We are stuck with marketing in a free society, but there can be limits regarding how it is done, and better education in the tricks marketers use. This could make a real difference, without limiting freedom to market.

    You would think libertarians would see things the way you describe, if they were logical about it. I think they let a strong gut instinct dislike of rules and the very idea of government get in the way. That's just my opinion obviously, but there seems no other explanation for the way they talk, behave and vote in parliament. I guess they are very free spirits, and in fact we mostly all have some scepticism of excessisve authority, but libertarians are a bit extreeme about it. But there are of course varieties of libertarians, and I'm probably over generalising.

    The bottom line on these issues of individual freedom versus rules of conduct that limit behaviour, was expressed quite well as far back as Aristotle with his writings on politics and ethics. We are part of a community, and for that community to improve it's well being requires specialisation of skills, and also rules of conduct, or you have chaos. But too many badly considered rules restricts individual freedom and innovation so it's a balancing act, inevitably.

    The helpful / harmful concept is an extension of all this, basically. It's all really a question of finding where the right balance is.

    Ultimately people who are harming others and damaging the public good should be removed, you are right of course, but they can only be removed by the people, in a democracy, (although Trump may be getting close to being impeached, but I'm not sure - I dont know the American system well enough). In terms of what the people do in these regards, we are reliant on the level of understanding, knowledge, ethical conduct, and thinking of the population as a whole.

  2. One Planet Only Forever at 02:35 AM on 20 May 2017
    Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    nigelj,

    I need to clarify my comment that Mill's thoughts presented in “On Liberty” do not require people to Help others. Mill does mention the value of people contributing to the overall benefit of society. And the British international thinking did include elements of helping the native populations in the Commonwealth live what, at the time, was considered to be “better lives”.

    My own thoughts are that any Libertarian who understands the need to limit their actions to avoid 'harming other people' would recognise that harm is done to the ability of some people's pursuit of happiness when economic games result in portions of the population not obtaining all of the understood needs of a basic decent life or some people end up having more difficulty living a basic decent life, especially when there is a large variation in the level of reward obtained by the participants in the game, and participants include the ones left sitting on the bench and future players of the game (it is essential to understand that pursuit of a basic decent life in a broad diversity of ways is the “happiness” that is referred to when people of that time spoke of the freedom of the “pursuit of happiness”).

    It is clear that many developed economic actions have been over-developed in unacceptable directions. The burning of fossil fuels may be considered to be the largest over-development in the wrong direction creating harm or risk of harm to others, though nuclear weaponry is also up there. But I consider misleading marketing to be the most damaging over-development in the wrong direction that humanity has ever created. And climate science is trying to over-come the damaging power of misleading marketing amplified by incorrectly over-developed perceptions of prosperity and opportunity and the irrational belief in the freedom of everyone to believe whatever they want and do whatever they please without having to understand if their thoughts and actions are justifiable (helpful/harmful).

    Inoculation against misleading marketing is essential.

    With that understanding, any Libertarian Leader, in business or government, would strive to correct the unacceptable results of the games people play, especially economic and political games. They would understand the need to share the total wealth and benefit more equitably, hopefully by changing the rules of the game so that the playing of the game produced better results. But responsible Libertarians would also push for the 'public provision' of the basic needs to all the people who did not obtain that result from the game (until changes made to the play of the game ensured that everyone lived at least a basic decent life with equal opportunity to be bigger winners in the game if they were more helpful to the overall population). Libertarian Leaders would also understand the importance of rapidly reducing human activity that is damaging to the future of humanity (Libertarians would want to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals).

    Clearly that result can best be achieved if any person who would choose to try to Win as much as they personally can any way they can get away with is kept from participating in the games until they change their minds and choose to be helpful. Measures like the Paris Agreement can expose the less helpful among the Winners of global leadership (any regional Winner who does not want to incrementally increase their regions contribution to the identified required change being clearly Harmful). That exposure of Harmful Winners allows the collective of Helpful people “Help the Harmful ones understand the importance of changing their mind and becoming more helpful if they wish to maintain any perception of being a deserving Leader (Winning power and influence is a privilege - you still have to prove you deserve it).

    So a true Libertarian would push for the removal from positions of power or influence in society any person who got away with Winning leadership, in business or governing, who can be shown to not be acting with the best understanding toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. And, as you implied, the likes of Team Trump, the House Freedom Caucus and so many other groups hoping to Win by claiming to be Uniting the Right are not interested in proving their Worth in that way. They are interested in winning by promoting 'good sounding - appealing' but understandably fatally flawed and damaging beliefs like the freedom to pursue happiness means - people believing whatever they want and doing whatever they please without any obligation to understand the validity of their beliefs or the reality of the harm done to others by their actions, which is a totally irresponsible thing to do, especially from the perspective of a Libertarian who understands the objective of protecting the pursuit of happiness for all others.

    A Libertarian can understand that the games based on popularity and profitability produce unacceptable results, with worse results produced by more freedom for people to believe whatever they want and get away with doing whatever they please. And the science behind successful misleading marketing power is easily understood to be one of the most damaging miss-applications of science (science being the diversity of pursuits of increased awareness and better understanding), that humanity has ever developed.

  3. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    OPOF @9 yes fair enough, I agree. As someone who has also been involved in building design in the past, I think climate change represents one big headache. It's hard enough resolving all the usual issues, and meeting earthquake strength requirements, which at least tend to be fixed targets, than dealing with the impacts of climate change and potentially changing wind loads, changing rainfall levels, and thus flood frequencies and appropriate building heights above ground! And of course there is sea level rise. 

    Speaking of sea level rise, the following article in 3 parts has some truly amazing animations of glacier flow in the Antarctic, and discussion of possible scenarios of sea level rise of 1-2 meters this century.

    www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/18/climate/antarctica-ice-melt-climate-change.html?_r=1

  4. One Planet Only Forever at 14:15 PM on 19 May 2017
    Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    nigelj,

    As a Structural and Civil engineer, rather than say I "desire a sense of order", I would say I require a Good Reason when Something Important is being done. And I certainly am motivated about the reason for climate change and reducing the rate of climate change. Regional weather event expectations are important requirements for the "Basis of Design" for Civil and Structural items. If there is increased uncertainty about the future expected regional weather events (and the uncertainty increases with increased rates of climate change), then the designs are at higher risk of being inadequate unless they are over-designed at higher expense for what would only be a guess at what is adequate. Reducing the uncertainty by reducing the rate of climate change is a critical requirement to be able to cost-effectively design for the future.

  5. CO2 lags temperature

    The link to "The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming by Claude Lorius (co-authored by James Hansen)" is broken. I found it here:

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2009Q1/111/Readings/Lorius1990_ice-core.pdf

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Thanks. Created link

  6. Digby Scorgie at 12:26 PM on 19 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    OPOF @18

    Does that mean you want me to continue firing off "e-mails to the editor"?!

  7. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    Ubrew @12, yes it is rather like that.

    Liberals are sometimes criticised for trying to help people with government programmes, like unemployment assistance or benefits, I think Americans call this entitlements? And things like affirmative action. It's alleged this doesn't work, and people become dependent etc, and yes theres a risk of this, and it does happen to some extent. But literally millions of people are genuinely helped, and the majority of the unemployed in my country are only on assistance for a short time. It seems to me a dependent minority does not invalidate the idea of government help.

    But Conservatives favour charity, and people can become equally dependent on charity, and I always worry about whether money given get's to people who actually need it, or how much goes to administration etc. But then its likely a minority would become dependent on charity, just as with government programmes, but this hardly invalidates the idea of charity either. I think Conservatives are really more worried about being compelled to pay taxes for government programmes.

    This is all a philosophical headache of migraine proportions. I come down on the side of pragmatism, that charity clearly has a strong place, but government programmes also have a strong place in some circumstances, which just scream out for a coordinated large scale, consistently available reliable form of help, like unemployment help or help for invalids. To me this is more important than fretting about paying taxes, as long as taxes do not get ridiculously high.

    The more important thing to my mind is making sure money from both private charity and government programmes gets to the people who need it, and are transparent and well audited, and that government programmes are sensible, and constantly evaluated, and don't attempt the impossible. We do not do any of this nearly well enough.

    This is a bit OT, but maybe not entirely, as  the principles strongly relate to the philosophical rationale for envirnomental issues and laws, in the sense of  how we form and evaluate environmental laws. If this is done in a transparent, rigorous, evidence based way, a consultative way, this may help bring liberals and conservatives together a bit more.

  8. 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #19

    Wait for old, immoral, their intelligence encumbered by the FF interests, science denying politicians to die out. The new generation of youmg leaders are already breaking up with the shameless tradition of their elders and demand better mitihation policies. In Australia, the movement start, unsurprisingly, in Natioanl Party, representing mainly farmers:

    Generational evolution forces Nationals to consider emissions

     because farmers are the ones who start feeling the climate chenge effects in this country. The movement is already overdue, the question is: is it broad enough (affecting other parties) and will it be quick enough.

  9. Contrary to Contrarian Claims, IPCC Temperature Projections Have Been Exceptionally Accurate

    "Where does this come from" - page xxii of summary for policy makers of FAR. (pg 30 of the PDF version found here).

  10. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    OPOF @6

    It may be appropriate to say helpful is more of an ethical concept, and too general and hard to define (sometimes) to form a sound basis for formation of specific laws and day to day regulations. The term harmful is intuitively more appropriate as a concept to develop laws and regulations, and sustainable development goals are based on the idea of not harming future generations, primarily.

    I find it interesting you are a structural engineer. I don't want to be specific about my current career, (I'm semi retired anyway) as I have found some people use that to judge the validity of what you write and whether your qualifications are relevent, when to my mind it should be about the depth of your comments, but I will say I at one stage I used to be professionally involved with architectural building design consultancy work, and get what you are saying about practices and guidelines. It might be we both have a desire for a sense of order or something.

    Team Trump seems to hate order, and be more about deliberate chaos, and very short term goals. There's no genuine long term plan, let alone sustainable development goals. This possibly originates with Trump's background as a profit seeking property developer, and in my experience these people hate rules or wider goals. It's the nature of the beast, and I'm not saying I would be any different in that role, but good government requires laws and rules, and I would suggest society needs some wider goals in a more general sense.

    Harmful marketing is indeed a problem, and innoculation is part of the solution. While I'm not a regular complainer, I did once lodge a complaint about a certain product, and it was taken off the market as a result. However I know you are mainly talking about marketing of certain ideas.

    Putting the marketing issue in  in context helps understanding.The basis of capitalism has been an element of healthy personal freedom to innovate, and market ones products in innovative ways. This is ok, as we should not require the time consuming approval of governments, or some dictator, but there is nothing damaging to capitalism in having rules about false advertising, or limits on how far you can target young people. Inncoculation does indeed help people identify marketing that is really just promoting and disgusing destructive behaviour.

    Ironically America has  voted for Trump, presumably because they perceive he promotes capitalism, but in many ways he is anti-capitalist, and more of a dictator who wants to personally approve everything before it is allowed, said or done. Just think of his restrictions on the EPA website, but there are many more examples. He believes he is above the law, or any cultural view on sustainable development.

  11. One Planet Only Forever at 02:23 AM on 19 May 2017
    Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    nigelj,

    One minor clarification regarding the thoughts in "On Liberty". People do not have to "Help Others", they simply need to ensure that their actions do no Harm to Others, including doing no harm to the ability of Others to pursue a decent life. At the time Mill was writing, happiness was understood to be a decent life, not personal pleasure or extravagance.

    Current day perceptions of what Happiness means have changed unacceptably. Susan Cain's book “Quiet - The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking” includes information about the change in America in the 1800s from a Culture of Character to a Culture of Personality - terms presented by historian Warren Sussman - with the primary perceptions of a successful person, described in books recommending how a person can improve themselves, shifting from “Citizenship, Duty, Work, Golden deeds, Honour, Reputation, Morals, Manners, Integrity” to “Magnetic, Fascinating, Stunning, Attractive, Glowing, Dominant, Forceful, Energetic”. Of course, the relative measure of worth of an individual's actions would be how much they help Others, but Mill's presentation “On Liberty” does not require people to help others, and the shifted perceptions of what deserves to Win in America isn't Helpful. The future of humanity needs People of Good Substance/Character, not Appealing Characters/Personalities, to Win.

    I consider the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be the best developed presentation of Moral/Ethical/Helpful thoughts and actions, and conversely they should be the basis for determining the unacceptability of any actions, actions that are contrary to advancing humanity towards those goals (the basis for laws and regulations, but also the basis for penalizing a person even if a law has yet to be written with the required monitoring and enforcement that would effectively limit what they tried to get away with - note that the USA may have very good laws but does not properly enforce them so even having a good law is not proof that good is being done).

    The SDGs can, and undoubtedly will, be improved. But they are already a very good basis for determining the acceptability/helpfulness of thoughts and actions. Raising awareness of the SDGs is valuable.

    As with all developed things, it is important to continue pursuing expanded awareness and understanding. Changing the presentation of the Sustainable Development Goals to make future versions even More Helpful will occur. The current wording is weakened by the temporary success of powerful interests that want to delay the changes of understood acceptability that ultimately need to be established (much like the way the need for all nations to agree to the wording of each statement in the IPCC reports has resulted in damaging understatement of the actual understanding that is already developed - the wording is the weakest wording consistent with the actual facts). In particular, the current version of the SDGs only says that the discount rate for evaluating the merit of current day activity needs to be reduced, hopefully to zero. A better understanding would be that doing any harm to Future Generations is unacceptable. That understanding would make a discount rate irrelevant because even a discount rate of zero means it is OK for a portion of a current generation to benefit at the expense of future generations (or others) as long as the amount of future damage perceived to be caused is less than the amount of present day benefit believed to have to be foregone to avoid creating the future harm to the ability to achieve 'happiness'.

    My career has helped develop my understanding of how easy it can be for "Change" and "Freedom of people to do as they please" (the things Libertarians, not necessarily Liberals push for) to produce damaging unhelpful results. In my work as a Structural Engineer we always established Practices and Guidelines. I, along with others, pushed for the understanding, explanation or justification of a standard procedure or regulation to be well presented along with the "Written Requirement". That detailed understanding of the reason for the requirement was important to keep "Changes" from being implemented that did not improve things. It also helped people identify flaws in the "Written Requirement" and provide corrective recommendations.

    The likes of Team Trump are not interested in justifying their actions based on a set of criteria like the SDGs. In fact, evaluating their actions to date would show that almost everything they want to do is contrary to advancing toward the Sustainable Development Goals. The awareness of the reality of the damaging unacceptability of the made-up popular claims attempting to support damaging pursuits of personal interest and profitability would hopefully be a very powerful inoculation. Once a person understands the importance of being helpful, and chooses to try to help others, it is very unlikely they will regress to being Harmful (though a person over-penalized and not helped to become a more helpful person can become very harmfully motivated - the undeniably damaging result of Tough on Crime Mandatory Minimums).

    So, one of the most important changes to make is the addition of Helpful/Harmful as the most important differentiation/categorization of people. Recognizing that polarization of the population, and working to reduce the portion that is knowingly or unwittingly tempted to be Harmful, is essential to keeping Harmful/less Helpful people like the members of Team Trump and the many unacceptable Winners hiding behind the Republican Brand (particularly the like of the House Freedom Caucus), from getting away with undeserved Winning that is understandably damaging to the future of humanity.

    In summary, the success of Harmful Marketing (winning Appealing Creations of Impressions that are Harmful to the future of humanity) is the problem, not just for climate science. And inoculation of the population against it is essential.

  12. A Rough Guide to the Jet Stream: what it is, how it works and how it is responding to enhanced Arctic warming

    Tom Curtis @87, this large change in position of the polar jet stream between Summer and Winter... what do yo think that causes it, if not precisely the difference in temperature gradient Pole-Equator? What other thing can influence the position of the Jet Stream?

  13. Understanding adjustments to temperature data

    Where is part two and part three of this series?

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Click on the Lessons from Predicitions button in the upper right hand corner of the article.

  14. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    Innoculation sounds like a good idea.  Sometimes, I also use a kind of 'logical confrontation' when someone repeats a climate myth.  For example, if someone says 'the climate has always changed, over millions of years' I like to challenge that person with 'name something, in the Universe, that hasn't changed over millions of years'.  People will repeat non-sequitors ad-nauseum otherwise.  If you just challenge them to examine the words coming out of their mouths, it may stop.

    One-Planet-Forever@2 is on to something.  I remember some decades ago, a book appeared, by conservative author Mona Charen, called "Do-Gooders: how Liberals hurt those they claim to help".  This was a frontal attack on the very idea of 'Helpfulness', and is at the root of much conservative thought in America.  But the conservative idea that 'people are basically bad' is a self-fulfilling prophecy.   People who seek to do good do not always do good, but people who seek to do bad almost always succeed at doing bad.  Good is good in part because its hard.  

  15. Contrary to Contrarian Claims, IPCC Temperature Projections Have Been Exceptionally Accurate

    The IPCC FAR 'Best' BAU projected rate of warming from 1990 to 2012 was 0.25°C per decade. However, that was based on a scenario with higher emissions than actually occurred.

    Where does this come from? I'm looking at the IPCC FAR and it says "Under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, the average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century is estimated to be about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C to 0.5°C) This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025." (page xi). Furthermore, the graph on page xxxiv appears to show almost constant CO2 emissions until 2020 in the BaU scenario, whereas it is reported that CO2 emissions have actually increased since 1990.

    In the IPCC's defense, their second report in 1995 greatly reduced projections (SAR page 39), and the first report had said, in bold, “There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding” (page xii).

  16. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    OPOF @2, I don't think we can entirely escape the use of the terms liberal and conservative, because they describe real world, observable types of people. By analogy,it's the same as suicide as an issue, you can't deal with this by not talking about it (we are currently debating this issue in NZ).

    Instead I try to make the observation that there are strengths and weaknesses in both liberal and conservative points of view. They are different ways of looking at issues, and different ways of trying to solve the same problems. So arguing which is better is a bit of a dead end, although I admit I personally do have a liberal bias. In fact we all have some characteristics of both, but for some evolutionary reason we also have liberal and conservative groups. But arguing about which is best seems a little pointless, because neither is workable enough alone to serve as some ideal model (in my opinion based on the normal definitions of these things). Having said that liberalism is a driving force for change which is a positive thing.

    I agree quantifying who is more helpful, liberals or conservatives, is childish, and probably too likely to spark unhelpful conflict, and is an intellectual dead end, or at least a bit trivial. Anyway I can immediately think of helpful attributes in both groups, but they operate a little in different ways.

    Regarding John Stuart Mill and his view that people should be helpful and not do things that have a negative impact on others (more or less), this is useful. I read some of his work many years ago. In fact even libertarians and Ayn Rand followers generally believe in a similar philosophy, sometimes expressed as people should be free to do as they wish as long as they don't impinge on the freedom of others. This is an attempt to promote freedom but realise (a little reluctantly perhaps) that freedom of action cannot be absolute, unless you want total anarchy and rule of the biggest and toughest. It is slightly esoteric, and I prefer a more practical approach of individuals should be free to do as they wish, as long as they don't harm others (against their will obviously, because we have things like competitive sports and accidents happen). Humanity has been passing laws forever, often on a rather arbitrary and sometimes an overly restrictive basis, or sometimes simply not enough laws. By using a guiding principle along the lines of John Stuart Mill the law starts to have appropriate boundaries and guiding principles, and deal with problems without becoming arbitrary or illogical or just self serving. The real challenge is getting people agreed on what is truly helpful or harmful, what impinges on freedom, etc.

    If we are harming the environment, we are certainly potentially harming others, both in the present and future generations. What mystifies me is how libertarians could at least believe in some sort of harm philosophy, and then be so consistently rejecting of environmental laws. It's like a mental disconnect.

    However on future generations, some people estimate that we are at risk of over fishing to the extent of literally wiping out all fish species within 50 years. It seems a frightening demonstration of reckless avarice and lack of control to let that happen. Sustainable fishing quota would be preferable, unless we are going to consign the oceans to oblivion and future generations to never eating real fish from the sea.

    I have no doubt that buried in the writings of Mill and certain other political and ethics philosophers is this good principle of individuals being free to do as they wish,provided their actions don't harm others, and this is a basic good guiding principle for good government, and the development and evaluation of appropriate laws and regulations. If only everyone could catch onto this and use it as a foundation, rather than gut instincts and other more arbitray beliefs.

  17. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    OPF - you might like to at Moral Foundation theory which gives the rather extends the understanding of liberal/conservative belong helpful/harmful. Potentially a lot of messaging on climate change has failed to touch the moral dimensions important to conservatives.

  18. One Planet Only Forever at 13:14 PM on 18 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Digby Scorgie,

    I just posted a comment to John Cook's most recent OP "Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation" that may give you reason to continue trying to be Helpful. There is a broad range of ways to be helpful locally-globally in the short-term to Infinitely long-term.

    Climate Change is probably the biggest battle front of Helpful actions. It is global, deals with very long term considerations, and requires changes that are contrary to a massive amount of incorrectly over-developed perceptions of prosperity and opportunity. And it requires changes that are undeniably contrary to the interests of many very wealthy powerful people.

    Helping on some of the other Sustainable Development Goals would undeniably be easier. But support for all of those goals is required from everyone who genuinely wants to be helpful.

  19. One Planet Only Forever at 12:42 PM on 18 May 2017
    Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    It may be helpful to identify a more important differentiating characteristic of individuals than "Liberal vs. Conservative".

    I think it is more important to understand whether a person has a stronger:

    • Desire to be Helpful in the development of a lasting better near and long term future for others (and themselves)
    • Desire for a better present for themselves even if getting it could be understood to be Harmful to others (and themselves).

    The limitation of Liberty as described by John Stuart Mill in "On Liberty" is essentially that freedom of action resulting from freedom of thought must not have a negative impact on others. Mill does not mention Future generations but it is likely he would have agreed that future generations qualify as Others. And Mill does state that the presentation of opinions that are likely to result in actions by others that are harmful would be an unacceptable action; something that people should not have the Liberty to do; something that the State would be expected to and allowed to effectively mitigate/address (I am currently re-reading the Essay so I am pretty sure of the statements made by Mill and his co-thinker Harriet Taylor, but I would have to spend some time tracking down exact quotes).

    I Capitalized and Italicized Helpful and Harmful and will simply use those terms to refer to the types of character.

    Though the amount of Helpful people (or degree of helpfulness of people) in the Liberal and Conservative categories could be evaluated to then try to declare which identifiable category was more Helpful, that would not be a helpful evaluation.

    What would be more helpful is to focus on the importance of people desiring to be Helpful and recognize that Helpful people could probably exhibit the full range of any other type of categorization. That clarification of what it means to be Helpful could also be used for inoculation and be more helpful by protecting against a broad spectrum.

    There should be very little doubt today about what constitutes being Helpful. There have been international efforts to increase awareness and understanding of human survival and improvement of life on this amazing planet. The 1972 Stockholm Conference established a rather comprehensive understanding of human interaction with the environment and other life on this planet. And the international efforts to increase awareness and understanding have continued though the past 45 years with the Sustainable Development Goals being the most recent compendium of awareness and understanding of the changes required for humanity's Better Future (with extensive back-up for each stated Goal). Helping achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with actions ranging from Locally to Globally and from Short-term to Infinitely Long-term is clearly what be Helpful means. And any actions that delay achieving the Sustainable Development Goals are clearly Harmful.

    Actions regarding Climate Change are a specific distinct Goal. But the other goals also need to be achieved. Just achieving the Climate Change Goals would be rather irrelevant form the perspective of the Future of Humanity. The same goes for any of the other goals. People desiring the pursuit of any of the other goals would also need to understand the importance of supporting the climate change goals. I see this because of my developed understanding and promotion of Fair Trade. The diversity of Fair Trade issues can each be seen to relate in some way to the importance of achieving all 17 stated goals (not just the challenge of climate change - even though it is a significant consideration for Fair Trade food growers). Achieving the 17 goals will dramatically reduce the need for Fair Trade Promotion (ideally I would like to be worked-out-of-the-volunteer-job of promoting Fair Trade). Of course climate science will always be in need of efforts to increase awareness and better understanding even after human activity that is Harmful has ended. And maybe that leads to some jealousy by science-minded people who are not as interested in being Helpful.

    The more Helpful people are more likely to have a better future (something I consider to be an axiom and have shared many times with my family, friends, co-workers, and any others when the opportunity to do so arises - a different way of stating that axiom is: Winning by getting away with being Harmful, or being less helpful than you could be, is possible but becomes increasingly difficult to maintain and ultimately cannot be sustained).

  20. Digby Scorgie at 11:58 AM on 18 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Susan Anderson

    Relax, lass, and enjoy the show.  I suppose I should be more concerned about the climate catastrophe heading our way, but in my cynical old age, I've found that it is easier to write off humanity, sit back, and watch the wheels come off — in slow motion.

    Despite the foregoing, in moments of weakness I still find myself firing off "e-mails to the editor" from time to time.  Recently I've had such missives on climate change published in no fewer than three different magazines.  You won't find them, though, because they're all local New Zealand magazines.  Nothing helps, of course.

  21. Citizens’ Climate Lobby - Pushing for a price on carbon globally

    Linked below is a very good, explanatory TED talk (13mins) which was filmed just last month. The speaker is Ted Halstead, leader of the Climate Leadership Council, which is advocating a GOP-based RNCFD (revenue-neutral carbon fee & dividend) solution to hasten the reduction of carbon emissions. The starting point ($40/ton) is higher than CCL's but the ramp-up rate (from year-to-year) is slower after the start. But other than that, the two schemes are nearly identical.
    www.ted.com/talks/ted_halstead_a_climate_solution_where_all_sides_can_win#t-775828

  22. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Susan (or anyone else trying to add links to a comment):

    The way to linkify a link when writing a comment is to first select the text you want to appear in place of the link (which can just be the text of the link). Then go to the Insert tab, and choose the little chain link symbol. A window will pop up where you then enter the hyperlink/URL.

    You used to have to select some text first. It looks like the widget has been updated and now you can open the Insert Link dialog box even if you haven't. If text was preselected, the dialog box only has a field for the URL. If no text was selected, it will have both a text box and an URL box.

  23. Inoculation theory: Using misinformation to fight misinformation

    The misinformation has a number of driving factors in my opinion:

    The internet is a great thing, but has unfortunately given a platform for mass misinformation and junk science, and shallow rhetorical sophistry.

    People have also become used to science, and bit disrespectful of science. 

    The dubious claims about "Iraq weapons of mass distruction" probably seriously eroded trust in the elites and authorities. Misinformation has filled the gap.

    Liberalism correctly promotes tolerance, but sometimes this becomes tolerance of the absurd.

    Conservatism has retreated In America into a closed, ideological bubble of strident beliefs, and anti logic, anti government programmes, and anti science thought. Vested business interests dominate. Not with all conservatives, but with some.

     

    This innoculation approach by explaining the facts, and the myth, and the techniques of rhetorical sophistry used to obscure the facts, is without doubt one very good tool to fight back. It is something that needs wider exposure especially in schools. Don't blame yourself Mr Cook, you can't single handedly solve the issue.

    Misinformation is similar to propaganda. I recall reading an article where after a while this repeating onslaught on the brain causes some people to simply give up, as they cant process the information any more so they just accept it.

    Some people also welcome propaganda. "For propaganda to be effective, it requires submissive subjects. ... Most people want to be given ideological marching orders and talking points from an authority." Refer link below:

    www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/why-does-propaganda-work-some-people-want-it

  24. Susan Anderson at 06:59 AM on 18 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    kids in schools and on buses, home attacks, spray painting, random stuff, real violence.  Most definitely hate crimes, and there's a lot of it. This is very OT, so I will desist, but the frequency is mindboggling.

    The other articles in that magazine (a lot) were also very fine. Thanks for activating the link.

  25. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Susan Anderson @7, yes I  accept Bret Stephens is not a Trump Lackey. Your links do show he has been genuinely critical of Trump on some things. He does share other views with Trump, and maybe I jumped to conclusions out of annoyance with the man.

    I agree with your comments in post 12 about Trump, liberalism, education and hate crimes ( I don't actually like the term hate crimes as its a bit vague and pc sounding, but I assume you mean demeaning comments and actions towards moslems and other minority ethnicities. I hate this sort of thing with a vengeance). Trump and his scaredy cat, obedient, sychophantic Republican supporters (and they truly are acting like lackeys) have a lot to answer for. 

    However I dont think we can simply stay silent about people like Stephens. I know there's a risk that every word one says draws attention to the guy, and he obviously wants this, but it's even worse to say nothing, and create the impression what he says is the truth (on climate change). What the other commentators at the NY times need to do is stand up for the science of climate change, and be less reticient about it. This will take the focus off Stephens. I think Stephens is a bit of an attention seeker.

    Liberalism correctly promotes tolerance, and generally avoiding insulting comments, but sometimes this evolves into an unfortunate tendency to be overly restrained, confused and bogged down in detail and excessisve nuance. It's important to sometimes speak out simply and strongly, and call a spade a spade, and tell people they are simply wrong, but obviously back it up with solid evidence and logic. 

  26. Susan Anderson at 05:22 AM on 18 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Reminder: Stephens is a follower of Lomborg. He appears not to be numerate or have a good scientific training. He's a writer (not an editor).

    Liz Spayd, the "Public Editor" was a poor choice. She refuses to engage with the many fact-based responses she received. To these two, facts appear not to matter, and nothing appears to penetrate that armor. I have one friend whom she criticized publicly precisely because he provided a fact-based rebuttal. What do you do with people who don't want to hear it because they're so convinced they're right? (It's happening on the left too these days.) It's easier to hate/attack than to think/reason/act.

  27. Susan Anderson at 05:15 AM on 18 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    I only halfheartedly agree with myself. But the word "lackey" has to go, and Stephens does not support Trump. He does, however, help the enablers and that hurts the 1+1 = 2 problem.

    As to NYT commentariat, we have a much bigger presence of Trump supporters than we usedta (also Russian and other kinds of trolls, some paid). We also have an increase in hate crimes, even in the more liberal Boston area. The empowering of narrow minded selfishness across the board is very bad and feelings about immigrants are ugly. Lewis Black did a neat piece on how Canada was too busy helping our victims to take us on.

    I had a conversation about ethics recently and was reminded of the WWII poster: "Use it up, wear it out, make it do ... or do without" and during the course of the conversation realized that what's bugging me (along with a lot of other things, like the failure of education to make kids more observant and curious and less inclined to overuse electronic devices) is that we should be on a war footing about climate.

    There's no way the infotainment industry and weapons-grade marketing machine is going to let us get serious and reality until it's too late. People are right to complain that the NYT should support its "truth" campaign with actual truth. People are so horrified by Trump they can't look away. I'd have front page news every day about climate change and all its offshoots, worldwide weather, etc. Sort of like the NYT magazine that came out about the same time as the Stephens rollout, and got little attention for its stellar range and presentation.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/magazine/our-climate-future-is-actually-our-climate-present.html

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Link activated.

  28. NASA Retirees Appeal to their Own Lack of Climate Authority

    I know nothing about the climate other than what I see out my windows.  If, in fact, mankind in it's wisdom, is gumming up the environment, I'd not oppose mitigations as long as my life style doesn't plumit to that of the 17 hundreds or less. 

  29. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Aplogies - my post @ 10 was formatted OK when I wrote it but all the ASCII 13s disappeared in the post!

  30. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change
    I think it's important not to be drawn into arguments about the economics of CO2 reduction, which is always a frontrunner in the denialists' agenda.There are two completely different - although (obviously) intertwined issues:1) Is AGW a reality? Will it a serious threat?2) If so, how can it be ameliorated? How much would that cost?If both the answers to (1) are "yes" then economic arguments are irrelevant.To my mind it's perfectly logical to accept (1) but to hold the opinion that one doesn't care. But that's rarely advanced as an argument: deniers will not accept the science in the first place.Engaging them with the pluses and minuses of the economics of preventing AGW is therefore useless and rather plays into their hands.
  31. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Typo. Sorry: it should be

    God said, Let 1+1=2. And it still is.

    "Benign essential tremor" is not so benign.

  32. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Ref: Susan Anderson & Nijelj discussion

    Most often I agree whole-heartedly with Ms Anderson; this time I agree half-heartedly. Yes, NYT has several fine climate reporters, and they deserve far more attention and respect than they get.w to be paranoid while living and working in Mexico for several years. Paranoia is a survival techdnique, not an illness. Being pretty thoroly mexicuted, I see the hiring of Stephens as a ploy to make NYT look "fair and balanced" on the climate issue, for revenue's sake. (Regrettably, my name for people thus selected violates the valued standards for commenting.)

    Reality is worse. The NYT commentariat's "liberalism" is shallow. There was an article recently about "Dreamer" students at the University of California at Merced: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/education/edlife/daca-undocumented-university-of-california-merced-fiat-lux-scholars.html which aroused very hostile reactions from a commentariat that not so long before had been sympathetic to deportees who were upstanding members of their communities. Why the difference? The dreamers were taking university slots and scholarships that the commenters crave for their own kids.

    An uncomfortably large number of members in my famously "liberal" parish insist on believing my kids (who are now 50-somethings) got great scholarships only because they are racially mixed. Same thing: the not-like-us people are getting goodies rightfully ours. And this is neither "conservative" nor "liberal" — it is merely bigotry.

    Gotta get off this "Climate is a right/left divide" thing. Courteously protest Stephens for his climate mendacity. A granddaughter of mine marched in her local Climate protest with a picket sign: "God said, Let 1+1=2. And it still his." Denial of this is not a matter of opinion. It is a lie, a dangerous lie.

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Link fixed. You might like to take a moment to reread your comment before submitting to reduce typos. It makes it easier for others to read.

  33. Susan Anderson at 01:32 AM on 18 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    nigelgj, I don't dispute the awfulness of the Stephens hire or his opinions, and I consider the insidiousness of Lomborgianism more dangerous than outright denial in some ways. But it is important to be accurate and the word "lackey" is classic early Iron Curtainspeak as well as incorrect in Stephens' case. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/10/opinion/comey-firing-donald-trump.html and https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/opinion/how-trump-may-save-the-republic.html

    My other point, which is advanced with humility, I hope, is that the broad focus on him, though negative, actually promotes his "brand" where a studied lack of interest in his dishonesty would, in my humble opinion, have been more effective.

    In addition, the NYT, as I said, has several fine climate reporters and they get a whole lot less attention than this mess. This eagerness to condemn and isolate with the "pure" ensures that the united Republicans will overcome fractious Democrats for the foreseeable future. Republicans aren't boycotting Fox and Breitbart. Science deniers are not so choosy about the tools they use.

    Moderator Response:

    Links fixed. Use the Link tool in the comment editor to create these yourself.

  34. Hockey stick or hockey league?

    Can anyone point me to a graph of temperature reconstructions longer than 1000 years?

    Moderator Response:

    [TD] Pages 2k for the past 2,000 years. Marcott for the past 11,000 years, Shakun for the previous years back to 20,000 years ago, shown together with recent instrumental records (click links there to get to their peer-reviewed papers, or use the Search box at the top left of this page to find more about them). But take care to not be misled by people who misinterpret or misrepresent Greenland ice core data.

  35. Temp record is unreliable

    cosmoswarrior @405:

    here are the differences between raw and asjusted GHCNv3 data, as calculated by Victor Venema:

    The GHCN data was until recently the entire basis of the NOAA land only surface temperature data, and almost the entire basis of the GISS meteorological stations only temperature data.  The comparison applies for those sources also.  As can easilly be seen, there is almost no difference between the raw and adjusted data from 1980 forward.  Your claim that "the temperature history during the last two decades of the 20th century was rewritten to double the rate of temperature increase" is simply false.

  36. cosmoswarrior at 19:52 PM on 17 May 2017
    Temp record is unreliable

    How can it be said that the temperature record is reliable when in June 2015, NOAA published a paper describing certain adjustments they had made to "improve" the data, and in so doing, they eliminated the 17 year warming hiatus that was troubling many climate scientists.  Not only that, but the temperature history during the last two decades of the 20th century was rewritten to double the rate of temperature increase. Assuming those adjustments were necessary to correct data errors, it opens questions as to the competency of the individuals involved in the data handling. Evidently, there were serious problems in the data gathering and processing that went on for 20-30 years, and it took an apparent slowdown in the warming to bring it to anyone's attention.  Allegedly, the problem is "fixed" now, but with the lack of competency that plagued the data handling process, how do we know the fix is any better than the original?

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Argumentative/perjorative statement snipped. Please read the SkS Comments Policy and adhere to it.

  37. Glenn Tamblyn at 17:33 PM on 17 May 2017
    Podcast on National Review & the science of climate science denial

    Essentially all denial is implicatory denial of one form or another. Maybe the view that the detested implication will occur is true or false, but that still doesn't change the underlying fear/detestation motivation.

    Is dealing with Climate Change going to lead to  socialism/one world government. No, So the implication is false.

    Does the reality of Climate Change imply that a Christians view that God wouldn't allow the world to be like that is wrong? Yes, the implication is true.

    Either way, they both trigger denial. However, where the implication is false, there is more room to work with that. It's hard to work with the grieving Christian who has to confront their worldview being destroyed in a profound way. Because it is being destroyed and that will be painful for them

  38. Podcast on National Review & the science of climate science denial

    Totally agree, nigelj. Whenever I discuss climate change with my dad, his denialism always boils down to his fear of socialism and one world government. 

  39. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Susan Anderson @4,  

    I agree alternative opinions are healthy. I dont mind quite so much  if Stephens is one opinion out of a range of opinions. Ideally I look for media like a newspaper that have a range of views, or it just becomes a closed bubble, and actually a bit boring.

    But the article's on this website on Bret Stephens have created the impression with me that Bret Stephens takes a lead opinion writing role, which would worry me. The articles on SS have not really spelled out whether the NY Times have a range of opinions.

    But putting that aside, there's simply no excuse for blatant cherrypicking of information or getting basic facts wrong, or being generally misleading, and in my "opinion" Stephen's is guilty of all three. I'm sick of this whether he's an opinion writer or news writer.

    You can be critical and/ or supportive of climate science without all that garbage. It's not opinion writing, its deceit! Yeah we have come to expect this from some conservatives, but it's not good enough.

    And Stephens has expressed equally misleading views on various subjects in addition to climate change. He comes across to me as a fairly extreme libertarian. 

  40. Susan Anderson at 07:07 AM on 17 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Stephens made some of his bones opposing Trump, and has had two recent articles making that clear. When he's not on the topic of climate, he's not nearly as bad. He is absolutely not a Trump "lackey" though the accusation that he is a climate obscurantist has considerable merit, and whether you're a Trumpian or Kochian is largely a distinction without a difference these days.

  41. Susan Anderson at 07:05 AM on 17 May 2017
    NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    I'm not defending Stephens but he was hired for NYT "Opinion". It's kind of like what people do about Trump, trying to insert reason, logic, and evidence where these concepts are inappropriate. If you remember that Stephens is a sort of disciple of Bjorn Lomborg, and makes his living as a soi-disant conservative commentator, you can avoid the pitfalls and trying to figure out why the stupid. It's just stupid, you can leave it at that.

    So many people I respect have gone the "unsubscribe" route that I hesitate to condemn the all or nothing approach. Unfortunately, it has not had the desired effect of correcting the error, but rather amplified it. Meanwhile they've hired Brad Plumer and have a large group of good reporters. All the attention paid to Stephens seems to feed the beast, making him better clickbait that if we really ignored him.

    It's an ongoing problem with the commentariat, how to find a way to effectively communicate about facts without feeding the monster of falsehood.

  42. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    At least Germany are making an effort, and achieving some level of success. The trend is in the right direction and costs are no higher than America, so criticism is nit picking and misses the big picture. Instead of rubbishing Germany, Stephens could be a whole lot more supportive and maybe some constructive criticism rather than making deceptive criticisms.

    It's also a classic bait and switch. Criticise Germany to take the focus of Americas problems, and Trumps pathetic attitude to climate change. Stephens is obviously another Trump lackey.

    But Just looking at Germanys progress on reducing emissions in the graph in the Guardian, there's not much progress with cars, in fact none. I would have thought they would have embraced electric cars by now, and had some incentive scheme.

  43. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    Is Stephens deliberately cherry picking 2009, knowing its deceptive? Or is Stephens is so badly educated he can't even interpret trends in a simple graph? It has to be one or the other, but either demonstrate he is not fit to be an editor of an environmental science column in the media.

    Maybe Trump is right, the NY Times print fake news. A prime example would be Brett Stephens with his deceptions and ignorance on emissions and warming trends.

  44. NY Times’ Stephens can’t see the elephant in the room on climate change

    The continual thesis that German electrical prices are punishingly high because of the role of renewables does not stand up to examination very well. You cannot just compare the retail price of a KWh because that includes taxes and VAT. The taxes vary with the volume, and there are also often fixed or variable charges for network access affecting the price. Without a detailed comparison that breaks down all charges no apples:apples comparison is possible, and that includes comparisons to neighbouring countries.

  45. Podcast on National Review & the science of climate science denial

    Nice podcast. I have noticed most climate sceptics embrace or indulge in logical fallacies, and often also have vested interests, or ideological beliefs that are anti tax and anti government regulation. This appears to be the root cause that drives their climate science denialism.

    Both these denialist issues, embracing logical fallacies, and being driven by strident ideology, are fundamentally lazy thinking, that is a form of anti -intellectualism and self centredness. It's little more than a shallow gut reaction. And the current White House are massive examples of all of this.

  46. Glenn Tamblyn at 12:41 PM on 16 May 2017
    Science of Climate Change online class starting next week on Coursera

    Very cool curiousd, well done.

  47. 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #19

    Links to the following articles have been or will be posted on the SkS Facebook page today:

    Under Trump, inconvenient data is being sidelined by Juliet Eilperin, Politics, Washington Post, May 14, 2017

    Trump Consults Fake-News Memes When Contemplating Climate-Change Policy by Eric Levitz, Daily Intelligencer, New York Magazine, May 15, 2017

    No room for science in Trump administration, Opinion by Chrsitine Todd Whitman, CNN, May 15, 2017

    Their contents reinforce Chiskoz's commentary.

  48. Renewables can't provide baseload power

    According to these researchers, renewables can provide all electricity needs (including baseload) around the world and they have built a simulation to make the point:

    http://www.lut.fi/web/en/news/-/asset_publisher/lGh4SAywhcPu/content/simulation-brings-global-100-renewable-electricity-system-alive-for-the-first-time

    Moderator Response:

    [GT Link activated]

  49. 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #19

    'Fake but accurate' - an interesting analysis by WP of inner workings of current White House, that I'm citing after my local paper smh.

    While the analysis concerns the broader subject of WH's vulnerability to fake news and their subsequent delusional lives, the triggering fake news herein is the "impending ice age" of 1970s. That's why I'm commenting on it here.

    It turns out T-man surrounded himself with all-around "yes-people", e.g. security adviser McFarland (successor of disgraced Michael Flynn) and anonymoius "official" who defended the "impending ice age" bunkum as "fake but accurate", Kellyanne Conway who allegedly hates his boss secretely, all the way to Rex Tillerson, who has to "earn his [T-man;s] confidence every day". That's, taken at face value, simply a flattery for the purpose of ingratiating oneself at all cost by Tillerson, colloquially known as "brown nosing".

    Interesting to learn, that those people, who's advice and actions should bear dignity and pride and responsibility and alertness to dangers lurking upon the president and the nation, have lost all of such qualities, replaced by unqualified flattery. The actions of the flattery are as ridiculous as shown, because the boss who receives the flattery (T-man) has the intelligence and moral development of a 6th grader juvelile, colloquially he can be called a spoiled brat. Quite remarkable that poeple can fall into the pitfalls of flattery so badly, that even a spoiled brat on the other end does not bother them.

    At this point I want to draw a generalisation: the climate science denial by the GOP can be seen as its flattery towards their "bosses" who are fossil fuel magnates, just as the denial of reality by WH officials is a flattery towards T-man. GOP say only the things about climate science that FF industry wants to hear: it's plainly visible throughout.

  50. Susan Anderson at 06:47 AM on 16 May 2017
    2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19

    All kinds of riches in those links. Of particular interest were updates on the state of methane. I didn't know Arctic methane seeps could have anything to do with slowing emissions. Weird!

    Also Antarctica, where there's always room to increase my knowledge.

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