Arguments
Recent Comments
Prev 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 Next
Comments 20101 to 20150:
-
nigelj at 05:55 AM on 28 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
Tom Curtis @6, yes my disagreement with joe over drainage basins was pretty much terminological. In fact for practical purposes what Joe says is all fair enough, and I was being a bit pedantic.
But you are right about the need to agree on definitions. In fact I would go further and say a huge ammount of disputes and problems on the net is people talking past each other, and having different interpretations of certain words or ideas, and also general lack of clarity of writing. Of course often its a time related thing.
However what frustrated me was Joe going on about rivers returing to some drainage basin. To me it misses the point of what is going on in terms of human caused climate change, and this is what set me off!
Thank's for the detail on the antarctic. Interesting stuff.
-
Evan at 03:11 AM on 28 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
Thanks Jim for this insight.
-
Jim Eager at 00:31 AM on 28 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
"The proof is just how hot it got immediately after snowball earth"
A second "proof" are the cap carbonate layers that follow every snowball excusion, caused by the sudden increase in rock weathering after the land ice melts, exposing freshly ground rock to the high-CO2 atmosphere and acidic rainfall.
-
BaerbelW at 14:11 PM on 27 April 2017March against madness - denial has pushed scientists out to the streets
Dcricket @5
"So what is to be done? I am perplexed. About the only idea I have is that the answer might lie in learning what makes so many people reject the consensus of those with intimate knowledge of the truth."
You may want to take a look at our MOOC "Denial101x - Making sense of climate science denial" as it has answers to your question. The current run is already in its final weeks but you can still register to check it out. All the videos from the MOOC are also available on YouTube and the list to them is here.
Hope this helps!
-
Tom Curtis at 11:07 AM on 27 April 2017No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
Spassapparat @34, Tony Heller (aka Steven Goddard) shows the following graph of USHCN adjustments:
You will notice that there is not a lot of scatter in the individual points from year to year, a necessary feature for the high correlation with CO2 given the very limited scatter found in the CO2 record (at least from Mauna Loa). That being said, the graph comes as a surprise to me, for I have typically seen a much larger year to year scatter in the graphs, such as shown here:
The author of this second graph is in obvious, and fundamental disagreement with Tony Heller about the size and nature of the adjustments in the USHCN temperature record. Importantly, if Heller is correct, there is a significant correlation between CO2 concentrations and temperature adjustments, but if the author of the second graph is correct, there is not. That is odd, because the author of the second graph is Tony Heller.
It turns out that when Heller is not trying to argue that there is a high correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature adjustments, he thinks the adjustments are very different from what he takes them to be when he trying to make that argument. It might make one think that Heller has adjusted his calculation of the adjustments to fit is CO2 correlation argument.
In any event, the basis of the adjustments is in fact well known. NOAA publishes the algorithms used to make the adjustments. The publish the raw and final data as well. Consequently anybody with the appropriate skills and determination can calculate the adjustments independently of NOAA. Several people have, and they have come up with the same result. Needless to say, none of NOAA's algorithms make any reference to CO2 concentration, as can be seen for the step wise adjustments as calculated by Judith Curry:
Heller knows this, so he knows that any correlation between the adjustments and CO2 concentration (whether assisted by adjusting the adjustments or not) is coincidental. His failure to discuss the known basis of the adjustments in his post must therefore be considered a calculated deceit.
-
Tom Curtis at 10:49 AM on 27 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
nigelj @5, I think your dispute with Joe about the natural drainage basin is terminological rather than real. Topography can be defined by the shape of the ground, or the shape of the ground plus permanent ice. Which we use is a matter of convenience, which in turn is a matter of just how permanent the ice is on human time scales.
The perfect example to illustrate this is the Antarctic Peninsula. If you look at the level at which the ice grounds, ie, the "natural topography" according to Joe, then clearly the Peninsula is actually an island (or series of islands). Nobody, however, is making an attempt to have the Peninsula renamed, or various regions of West or East Antarctica renamed as seas. Because the ice is sufficiently permanent, we take the surface of the permanent ice sheets to define the topography of Antarctica, so any such change in nomenclature would be absurd.
The case with the Kaskawulsh glacier is interesting because the duration of the ice is significant in human terms (several hundred years) but clearly the topography defined as including the ice surface has changed significantly on a human timescale. That makes it a matter of terminological choice as to which definition is used. If we choose that the topography is taken as following the surface of the ice, then the natural drainage basin of the river has changed, just as much as if the cause of the change was the reshaping of the land by an earthquake. I am not certain, but I suspect topographical maps of the area will show contour lines following the ice surface, which would show that that was the convenction we had adopted. If we follow the convention that topology follows the land surface, then, of course, the natural drainage basin has not changed.
The key point here is that neither choice of terminology is right, or wrong. They are only convenient or inconveneint. But to avoid confusion we must be clear as to which convention we are following.
-
nigelj at 08:39 AM on 27 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
Joe @3, thank's for your comment. I was indeed thinking of drainage basins in the very long term.
However I take your point, but I just think so what? I'm not sure what you think is so compelling about the river returning to a previous state / drainage basin.
The more important thing is we are melting the glacier, and altering the course of the river in that process. This could possibly cause us problems either in this specific case, or other cases, and regardless of whether it goes back to some previous state or not. It's also showing the impact of agw climate change, and is just another potential heaadache being caused by agw climate change.
Nothing personal, your comments were interesting and raised various issues. I didn't know about the tree stumps etc.
But I have the same reaction to the tree stump issue. Basically so what? It's well known that during the mpw some specific locations warmed more than others. The more important point is the mwp was rather weak overall, and climate change really "is" like a hockey stick according to all the studies I have seen.
But anyway Tom Curtis has cast very genuine doubt about whether you can conclude the region of the Mendenhall glacier was particularly warm.
-
nigelj at 06:41 AM on 27 April 2017March against madness - denial has pushed scientists out to the streets
Dcrickett @5, the bible shows how these denialist issues have a pretty long history! Although I'm an athiest, I can see sense in the verses you quote.
I don't think you will remove all doubters. I saw a book a couple of years ago disputing literally all the fundamentals of Einsteins theories of relativity. I would have thought that was settled science, and the writer was a degree qualified engineer. But you can convince most doubters.
I think you have a range of sceptical views: Some people are contrarians by nature in my experience, some have genuine doubts, perhaps some have vested interests or ideological axes to grind, which leads them to deny the science. There's a range of things.
Regardless of motivations, it appears most people are prepared to change their views on various issues, if you look at history of other controversies, although it can take some time. We will never get everyone to accept climate science, but I think you can get most people to. It just takes explaining the science issues, as websites like this do. You also have to deal with worries about costs of renewable energy etc.
To some extent it's like swing voters or moderates in politics. Those are the people we need to target over climate, the moderates, and they are largely convinced by rational argument, (slowly sometimes). There will be a small group that remain very stubborn, but my instincts tell me its a small group.
Pew Research has done polls showing about 70 - 80% of people already accept the science in many countries and want action. More in some countries. So quite good progress has already been made. We tend to hear about the doubters in America, who get a lot of publicity, and think this is overwhelming or typical globally, when it isn't.
Don't get me wrong, the doubters really annoy me, but I think it's easy to let them get us down too much.
And a strong consensus like this of 70 - 80% would often lead to action by politicians on many issues. Its often enough to trigger having a referendum etc, and would certainly be enough to pass a referendum.
But unfortunately politicians do not always do what the majority want, because of their personal views, or pressure from lobby groups and people who fund their election campaigns. We see this clearly in America when you look at poll numbers.
But the larger the public consensus accepting climate science, and wanting action, the harder it is likely to be for politicians to ignore, which is why websites like this are valuable.
-
Spassapparat at 06:38 AM on 27 April 2017No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
Hi,
an argument that appears on many climate skeptic blogs (ex: https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/02/co2-drives-ncdc-data-tampering/) to justify the claim that there is deliberate tampering going on is to plot the NOAA temperature adjustments against measurements of atmospheric c02 and finding that there is an almost perfect fit. While a close correlation imo can be expected, that close of a fit appears surprising to me too. As I'm neither a climate scientist nor a statistician I was wondering whether someone could provide an explanation for this?
-
Dcrickett at 04:57 AM on 27 April 2017March against madness - denial has pushed scientists out to the streets
Horrid, the denial, the disbelief.
Last Sunday the Gospel lesson was John 20:19-31, the “Doubting Thomas” story. It has some relevance. Taking the story literally, one guy of the twelve did not believe, because he didn’t see it. He could not take the word of his fellow disciples, with whom he had spent years. So, 1/12 or ≈8% on the skeptic side. He did not take the word of the two women who went to the tomb, nor of the guy who made the tomb available. So, 1/15 or ≈7%. The ≈3% disbelievers are worse then Thomas, who did not deny the evidence. These “scientists” stuck their hands in the data equivalents of the nail-holes, etc, and they still do not believe (or so they claim).
About the only tentative conclusion I can find from the above paragraph is that pointing out more nail-hole and piercèd-side data will not convince those who will themselves into disbelief.
So what is to be done? I am perplexed. About the only idea I have is that the answer might lie in learning what makes so many people reject the consensus of those with intimate knowledge of the truth.
-
rocketeer at 04:37 AM on 27 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #16
CO2 was about 315 ppm when the Mauna Loa observations started in 1958.
-
Tom Curtis at 02:16 AM on 27 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
joe @3:
"Secondly, we know that mwp was most likely warmer in the region as indicated by the exposed tree stumps dating from the mwp ( which you acknowledge) from the retreating mendenhall glacier."
With respect, we do not know that at all. Firstly, glaciers exhibit a lagged response to temperature. Consequently, in a period of very rapid temperature rise as at present, the equilibrium glacial terminus may be significantly up slope of the observed glacial terminus. So while the tree stumps at Mendenhall Glacier give reason to think the temperature whose equilibrium terminus coincides with the current terminus, all else being equal, was less than that in the MWP in that region. But that may have been the temperature 10 or 20 years ago in a rapidly warming region.
Secondly, all else is not equal. Specifically, the glacial terminus is the result of a lagged equilibrium between precipitation on the glacier above the snow line, and temperature below the snow line. Current precipitation in the area is high, having risen from a low base (for the region) over the last century or so. That would have slowed the retreat due to temperature alone for glaciers in the region, and for some specific glaciers may have reversed it. In contrast, from approx 900 to 1300 AD, precipitation in the region fell - which would have resulted in a glacial retreat even in the absence of any increase in temperature. The reduced glacial length of Medenhall Glacier shown by the tree stumps are as likely to be a consequence of those changes in precipitation as changes in temperature. (Precipitation data from Lowe et al 1997)
Thirdly, glacial responses to temperature and precipitation changes within a region can vary significantly within a region due to shifting microclimates. Medenhall Glacier is in British Columbia, sufficiently distant from the Kaskawulsh Glacier, which is in Yukon, that the glacial record of Medenhall cannot be treated as directly relevant to Kaskawulsh. Kaskawulsh glacier has itself been shown to have advanced between the MWP and the LIA by tree ring and C14 data on woody debris, but that debris has been found next to currently existing vegetation, in some cases in trees with trunks thicker than the debris (See fig 3 of Reyes et al 2006). The debris has been carried downhill from its initial location, but it cannot be directly inferred that it originally grew uphill of the current terminus, let alone the current equilibrium terminus line.
Finally, a temperature reconstruction for the summer temperatures in South West Canada has been inferred from known glacial advances in retreats in the area (see fig 12 of Menounos et al 2008). This shows peak temperatures over the last 1000 years around 1020-60 and 1400 AD, with 1940 temperatures (20 year mean) being 0.3 C cooler than those peaks. Temperatures in the region have risen by more than 0.5 C since the 1940s:
That is, based on multiple regional proxies, it is more likely that curren temperatures are slightly warmer than the MWP peak than that they are slightly cooler; but the data is not sufficiently robust to say definitively which was warmer or cooler.
-
deivis_bluz at 02:14 AM on 27 April 2017March against madness - denial has pushed scientists out to the streets
We can not use language of physics and chemistry to solve climate change. Laws of physics and chemistry produce waves which trap heat and make objects appear real. We need new laws to dissolve solid objects into light in our eyes and new words to experience our changing senses.
-
joe - at 23:50 PM on 26 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
Joe @1, I don't see how you can say that this rivers natural drainage basin existed back in the mwp, because this is arbitrary. I could equally say it's natural drainage basin was back before the mwp where things were probably different yet again, but this is just as arbitrary.
NigelJ - How can I say what is the river's natural drainage basin? - Its basic topography
How can I say what is the rivers natural drainage basin during the MWP? Based on known facts. First we know that the most of if not all the glaciers in the region made significant advances during the LIA (LINK)
Secondly, we know that mwp was most likely warmer in the region as indicated by the exposed tree stumps dating from the mwp ( which you acknowledge) from the retreating mendenhall glacier. You may also note that the age of the tree stumps indicate a reasonably long warm period.
I think the only meaningful definition of natural drainage basin would be "before humans substantially changed things" for example by agriculture and hydro power etc,
Are you attempting to argue that topography that has existed for millineums is not relevant to what any hydrologist would demonstrate is the natural drainage basin?
The glacier has indeed revealed some tree stumps from very roughly around the mwp. However studies of the mwp find that for Europe as a whole, it was rather weak with about half a degree of warming, in the northern hemisphere only, as below
The mwp trees stumps that you acknowledge are just one of the many of the pieces of evidence that the region for the slim river was most likley warmer during the mwp and thus the slim river most likely drained south which is its natural drainage basin. The river most certainly followed its natural course as recently as 2k-3k years ago.
Moderator Response:[RH] Fixed link. Please note that there is a link tool in the menu above the comment box.
-
Joel_Huberman at 22:52 PM on 26 April 2017March against madness - denial has pushed scientists out to the streets
I don't agree with the 97 to 3 odds, and I think that using that argument gives too much credit to the 3 percent. Climate science is basic chemistry and physics. There is no doubt that our release of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels is warming our planet, melting glaciers, and fueling both storms and droughts. I don't understand the motivations of the 3% of doubters who claim to be climate scientists, but whatever their motivations, they're just plain wrong.
-
John Hartz at 13:26 PM on 26 April 2017March against madness - denial has pushed scientists out to the streets
Recommended supplemental reading:
Networks Covering March For Science Provided Platform For Climate Deniers by Kevin Kalhoefer, Media Matters for America, Apr 24, 2017
-
nigelj at 12:08 PM on 26 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
Joe @1, I don't see how you can say that this rivers natural drainage basin existed back in the mwp, because this is arbitrary. I could equally say it's natural drainage basin was back before the mwp where things were probably different yet again, but this is just as arbitrary. Rivers change their courses long term.
I think the only meaningful definition of natural drainage basin would be "before humans substantially changed things" for example by agriculture and hydro power etc, or by agw global warming, depending on specific rivers. This would mean natural drainage basins are far more recent than the mwp.
The real point is we are causing the glacier to melt through burning fossil fuels, or are at least this is a dominant cause. And its happening at a fast rate compared to previous warming periods like the mwp. And its altered river flows.
The glacier has indeed revealed some tree stumps from very roughly around the mwp. However studies of the mwp find that for Europe as a whole, it was rather weak with about half a degree of warming, in the northern hemisphere only, as below
(LINK)
The mwp was also rather short, and was clearly not enough to seriously raise sea levels long term. The recent agw warming is driven more by greenhouse gases, and is at a much higher rate, and likely to lead to long term sea level rise.
Moderator Response:[RH] Shortened link.
-
Evan at 10:37 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
This analogy does not claim to be a definitive thesis on snowball earth. But here are a couple of points I think worth pondering. Related to the comment
"Eventually the sun strengthened enough to warm things up."
The sun strengthens over geologic times due to changing fusion reactions in the core of the sun. These change are on the order of 100' millions of years, far too slow to bring the earth out of snowball earth. Earth's orbit changes, causing a small amount of warming. One theory of what brought us out of snowball earth is plate tectonics, which caused increased vulcanism, which increased the CO2 in the atmosphere to the point that at the equator the ice melted just enough to expose dark oceans underneath. This increased warming, which melted more ice, exposing more dark oceans, etc. Very quickly we came out of snowball earth and, because of all the CO2 that built up during snowball earth, we entered a hothouse.
But my point is primarily this. The greenhouse effect requires both the engine (CO2, CH4, etc.) and the fuel (infrared radiation). Once the world got locked into a snowball earth, for whatever reason, for a very long time, high CO2 levels were insufficient on their own to bring the earth out of its deep freeze. This is partly because the snow and ice reflected most of the incident radiation back to space. Eventually a combination of plate tectonics, vulcanism, orbital alignment all happening together increased CO2 and temperatures to the point that we did come out of snowball earth, but for a very long time CO2 was at a level which, under non-snowball earth conditions, would have caused significant heating. The proof is just how hot it got immediately after snowball earth. Really hot, because all of the CO2 built up during snowball earth, combined with all of the radiation present after snowball earth, meant extreme heating.
No analogy is perfect, but this analogy is trying to make the point that when skeptics/deniers point to periods such as snowball earth as proof that CO2 does not cause warming and that high levels of CO2 are not dangerous, we simply want to remind them that warming requires both the engine and the fuel, and not just the engine. During snowball earth we had a big engine (CO2) and little fuel. Today we have both the engine and the fuel, both in plenty of supply.
-
Mal Adapted at 10:28 AM on 26 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
For the sake of having the best chance of mitigating climate change impacts, I think it may be better to keep the arguments separate.
Agree completely.
I'm such an example. I'm a practising Christian who loves God; and I believe that climate change is real and that mitigation is important.
So is Katharine Hayhoe, yet to me she's a heroine. I'm an atheist, at least in the dictionary sense, but you and I have no dispute.
-
nigelj at 09:19 AM on 26 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Daniel Livingston @30, yes it's a tough one because as you say evolution comes up against the creationist thing, and vaccines do reflect at least genuine concerns ( even if missplaced imho). These two things in particular fire people up and make some people very emotive and defensive. I alluded to this in my first post that these things are not fully indicative of the more general distrust in science we are seeing, and should not become too big a focus in debate.
Having said that it's not just climate science under attack, but other environmental science. And evolution and vaccines are related to both science and current irrational attitudes as well, so it's very hard to ignore them entirely. It's hard to walk around everyones sensitivities all the time. I make this effort because I prefer this, but it's hard work.
I also see from various polls that climate change scepticism seems more prevalent in the Republican congress than the general membership. It's driven in Congress, as much by political factors and lobby group pressure, rather than genuine doubt's although there is this as well.
-
sailingfree at 09:01 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
? looking for help here. The article says:
"... infrared radiation ... captured by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, increasing the temperature of the atmosphere. ... absorb an increasing fraction of the emitted infrared radiation, causing warming."
captured? absorbed?
I thought that the CO2 reemitted the IR, causing the surface to warm.
The surface then warmed the lower atmosphere.
Is that a more accurate desciption?
Thanks
-
nigelj at 08:52 AM on 26 April 2017March against madness - denial has pushed scientists out to the streets
Well said. The loss of belief in science is tragic, and astounding, and dismissing the views 97% of climate scientists that agree we are altering the climate, and going with a small minority of sceptics of 3%, is irrational, and ammounts to an insane sort of selfish gamble, and is dumping our stupidity on future generations. We have just one planet, and it needs to ne managed well or things will go very wrong. Most importantly, it's a completely senseless gamble, given renewable energy is now cost competitive, or close enough to be genuinely viable.
(Polls actually show a variance from 90% - 97% who think we are altering the climate, but I think its immaterial whether its 90% or 97%. It's a big majority, and no poll has ever found climate scientists with a radically different outcome. I suspect sceptics have conducted such polls, but they have not delivered the results they wanted, so never got published)
Yes some will argue that the majority are not always right, but given the sceptics are in a distinct minority, their work has to be carefully scrutinised, and the duty is on them to have a pretty convincing argument, including not just some big problem with mainstream climate science theory, but a viable alternative reason for global warming that explains not just the rate of warming, but also other associated atmospheric changes. They have consistently failed to do this imho.
Climate denialists and sceptics also seem to consistently come with a lot of ideological baggage, that to me undermines their credibility.
I remain open minded, but we have completely run out of time to theorise, because if we don't act now, serious climate change will be totally locked in for millenia.
I take some degree of issue with the claim that people have "suddenly lost the ability to judge what is right or not," in other words suddenly become irrational. I think many people have always stuggled to evaluate science, because we have failed to teach enough about the scientific method itself, along with skills of logical thinking, identifying shallow rhetorical tricks and so on. Given climate change is a big issue with big implications, it has exposed this lack of skill.
However some things have changed as well. In the past I think people have accepted science on trust, and have been respectful of elites, during the 1800's and authoritarian post WW2 period, up until the 1960s, and had no particluar reason to question things like quantum physics, that doesn't require them to change lifestyles. This subservience to authority was however oppressive in various facets of life, especially socially.
Things are now different as culture is more liberal and less authoritarian on the whole, so people question things more. This is basically very healthy, but has gone totally out of control with some people, with a total lack of respect for elites, for various reasons. People have simply lost faith in elites, possibly for partisan political reasons, frustration that things dont always work smoothly, etc. This has led to Trump gaining unfortunate traction.
But I think it's also exposed that many people lack the rational thinking skills to discern when the elite or politicians are genuinely wrong or genuinely right, or to spot flaws in denialist claims, which might be scientic flaws or simple logical absurdities.
Of course we cannot expect people to accept every pronouncement of the elite at face value. Alternative views are healthy. Scepticism has its place and can be healthy, if it's rationally based.
But alternative facts are a nonsense. Conspiracy thinking is insane. These things are dead ends.
Without basic, fundamental faith in mainstream institutions and mainstream science, and the scientific method, and rational evidence based thinking, we are lost and things will end badly. We loose unity of human purpose and belief. It will become a war zone on every level, with human groups divided, and it could literally come to civil war.
There's no viable alternative to mainstream science, rational thinking, evidence collated or collected by good public institutions, and private institutions that have integrity and reputation, and some form of authority that is tasked with collecting such evidence.
-
Kiwiiano at 07:21 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
NigelJ: point out to them that all the volcanoes on Earth provide only 1% of the CO2 we are emitting, sometimes less. Note that there are more vents, geysers, fumerols, mud pools and other geothermal outlets in Yellowstone Park than the rest of the world combined but there are more "fumerols" (exhaust pipes) on the LA Freeways alone, let alone the rest of the planet.True, big volcanic eruptions release a lot of gas, but they are all over in a few days or weeks, with decades/centuries until the next time. Exhaust pipes are 24/7/365.25.
-
nigelj at 07:18 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
Just related to snowball earth, I had to read up on wikipedia, I confess. It appears solar radiation was very significantly less when earth first formed, and has been gradually increasing over the millenia, at an incredibly slow pace according to well understood astronomical evidence.
Whats interesting is that prior to snowball earth there was a period of liquid water that coincided with a weak sun. It's called "the faint sun paradox" given solar output suggests everything should have been frozen. It's thought that greenhouse gas concentrations were extremely high, enough to keep the planet above freezing point. Some think alternatively that given oceans were larger in extent, this affected the heat balance.
It's thought the greenhouse gas balance eventually fell leading to snowball earth. Snowball earth was a period of low solar radiation, and quite high greenhouse gases, but not high enough to overcome the weak sun. Eventually the sun strengthened enough to warm things up.
Now the suns energy output is essentially falling very slightly, and we are adding greenhouse gases, so this is the dominant factor affecting climate.
This is my understanding. From snowball earth and related links on wikipedia.
-
Daniel Livingston at 07:04 AM on 26 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
No worries regarding my name - I get David and Livingstone frequently.
Thanks for the informative responses. I guess we will probably see things differently regarding some philosophical questions, but I hope that doesn't prevent meaningful dialogue.
This is a site about the science of climate change, so behind my post was an implicit / veiled plea to keep the issues of evolution and vaccines separate. If we lump them all in together as science vs anti-science issues, I fear we will unnecessarily alienate people (such as many US evangelicals) whose minds are not already made up on the question of climate science, but are made up on, say, the question of origins.
The risk of lumping them all in together is that a Creationist may find it difficult to evaluate the evidence and arguments around climate change if he thinks that he is already labelled as being in the 'anti-science' crowd because of his beliefs about origins.
For the sake of having the best chance of mitigating climate change impacts, I think it may be better to keep the arguments separate.
I'm such an example. I'm a practising Christian who loves God; and I believe that climate change is real and that mitigation is important.
-
nigelj at 06:40 AM on 26 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Daniel Livingston, apologies for the name mistake. I know a David Livingston, I mixed it all up.
-
nigelj at 06:29 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
William @3, yes very bad scenarios are certainly possible.
Also have a look at "The Revenge of Gaia" on wikipedia.
-
nigelj at 06:19 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
The blanket / body analogy is excellent, and will bring a wry smile to people, but I do think most people probably accept the greenhouse effect. The small number who don't might be the very stubborn types who will be hard to convert.
The problem is people query whether the CO2 is coming from fossil fuels or the oceans or volcanoes, or whether natural causes for warming dominate, etc,etc, ad infinitum. I suppose all we can do is combat these fallacies, and this website is a good resource for this.
Combatting climate change is more of a political / psychological / economic /social /vested interests problem.
It's tempting to be pessimistic about the whole climate thing at times, with the slow progress, complacency, and astoundingly ignorant and self interested positions of people like Donald Trump, but things in life often reach tipping points, where the public and even most politicians suddenly change their positions, and progress starts to happen rapidly. It's like there is a silent gestation period, and then everyone reaches a silent consensus, and change their mind or want action almost in unison. You see it in politics sometimes.
People can be fixed and partisan, yet they "do" eventually change positions on at least some things. I think this may happen over climate, and full commitment to renewable energy. The question is whether it's soon enough to be of any use.
However it may take longer in America given the deep divisions, and powerful influence of lobby groups and various other factors.
-
william5331 at 06:18 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
The solution may be at hand. We are in a horse race to see whether sudden climate change or economic collapse will come first. If Economic collapse knocks us back into a dark ages or even into a stone age, our carbon output will crash and huge areas of the world will go back to forest. Imagine the legends that the remaining survivors will tell of this "Atlantis" and the deniers that will maintain that it could never have been. For that matter, sudden climate change will precipitate an economic collapse so pretty soon we will stop straining our poor old earth whichever wins the race.
-
joe - at 05:57 AM on 26 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #16
A stream flows through the toe of Kaskawulsh Glacier in Kluane National Park in the Yukon. In 2016, this channel allowed the glacier’s meltwater to drain in a different direction than normal, resulting in the Slims River water being rerouted to a different river system. (Dan Shugar)
A team of scientists on Monday documented what they’re describing as the first case of large-scale river reorganization as a result of human-caused climate change.
A more accurate statement is that the river is reverting back to its natural drainage basin, which existed prior to the glacier blocking its natural flow. The retreat of the mendenhall glacier revealing tree stumps from the early mwp indicates a much warmer period in the region and that the north bound flow of the river has most likely only been a fairly recent occurance.
-
Mal Adapted at 03:39 AM on 26 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
My apologies to Daniel Livingston, for calling him David after reading nigelj's reply to him.
-
Evan at 02:40 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
Macabre, but effective analogy. We need lots of variations on the same theme to reach the broadest audience, and your's works. Thanks. Perhaps we can publish this as Analogy 2B.
-
ubrew12 at 02:17 AM on 26 April 2017SkS Analogy 2 - Ferrari Without Gas
In the 1930s my father-in-law escaped Depression-era Seattle for Alaska to pan for gold (his father had made quite a bit of money that way). He and his friends hooked up with an old prospector who was certain that up a particular river they would find El Dorado. After much trial and tribulation, they ended up-river with no gold, winter approaching, and then the prospector died. They quickly did an about-face, the river froze, it became perilous. Worst of all, my father-in-law had drawn the short straw, and had to sleep with the old man's body in his tent (the ground was too frozen to bury him properly). One night he woke up, and the old man was staring at him, and he swore at the old man that if he ever haunted him, he would find a worthy adversary as they fought their way down to hell.
This is a long-winded, more macabre way of saying that another way of making your analogy is to note that you can throw a blanket (of CO2) on a freezing human being, and they will warm up. But, if you throw a blanket on a freezing corpse, they just stay frozen.
-
Mal Adapted at 01:33 AM on 26 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Evolution: most informed people are aware that there is abundant scientific evidence of natural selection that is essentially incontrovertible. What scientists have failed to ever once demonstrate, however, is that observable natural selection can be a means of producing new genetic information such that biodiversity or biogenesis can be explained in an observable, reproducible way.
Mr. Livingston has demonstrated is a fundamental confusion about what science is. He is thus like "most informed people."
His use of "biogenesis" is ambiguous, but if by "biodiversity" he means speciation, then the "failure" of evolutionary biologists to demonstrate it before Mr. Livingston's very eyes in no way undermines any refereed claims of the neo-Darwinian synthesis. Nor is "failure" to replicate every step in the process a substantive challenge to current models of abiogenesis, the origin of life from non-living chemical precursors.
Mr. Livingston goes on to assert that alternative hypotheses to evolution, that assume intelligent and/or supernatural causes, can't be ruled out. That's not correct either, I'm afraid.
Science, as a way of trying not to fool oneself, relies on the a priori assumption of invariant natural law; since no later than the mid-17th century, disciplined scientists have agreed that "then a miracle occurred" is wholly unsatisfactory as an explanation for anything (hence, according to an 1825 biography of Napoleon, Pierre-Simon LaPlace's reply when Napolean asked him "how the name of God, which appeared endlessly in the works of Lagrange, didn't occur even once in his?": "I had no need of that hypothesis"). The only "miracle" that can't be ruled out is the origin of the Universe itself, since our Universe's invariant laws themselves originated with the Big Bang.
For their part, as nigelj has already pointed out, proposed natural but super-intelligent causes all suffer the "what created them?" flaw. That is, they contravene the principle of parsimony, also called the least hypothesis rule or "Occam's Razor".
-
Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
A couple of comments from the US:
Despite religious conservatives, most classrooms in the US do get taught evolution. Counterexamples are usually based on individual teachers who are violating the curriculum. Whether or not evolution or climate change are presenting in anything like a convincing fashion, however, is more variable.
There is an ongoing failure to teach methods vs. facts. One of my most useful Junior High classes was an English class where we learned Greek and Roman origins of suffixes and prefixes, experimenting with creating our own words using modifiers - and giving the tools to examine new vocabulary from scratch. And spending time for a degree in Philosophy, which provided considerable experience in identifying logical fallacies, in understanding poor argumentation.
How to think is perhaps the most important subject of all - and sadly, not always taught.
-
nigelj at 19:01 PM on 25 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
David Livingston @24
You say "usually the question is whether or not to vaccinate my kids rather than whether vaccines have efficacy."
Clearly for you, but I have observed plenty people claim vaccines have nasty side effects and also that they don't work. I suggest they reject the science of whether vaccines work, in a sort of reaction to provide another reason not to use vaccines.
And their concerns about side effects seem rather irrational given the same people are often happy to use other medications, which also have equal side effects.
However I do understand people do worry about what they are giving their children, and it sometimes worries me, but overall I think vaccines are advisable. The risks are no more than other medications, and serious risks are at very low level. Remember people can have a fatal allergic reaction to almost anything, but it's rare enough.
That's not to say we should accept everything pharmaceutical companies claim at face value, but let's keep the "scepticism" sensible with some real foundation, not some of the crazy conspiracy claims people make.
You say "What scientists have failed to ever once demonstrate, however, is that observable natural selection can be a means of producing new genetic information such that biodiversity"
So you appear to claim people accept some evidence for evolution, but science has never demonstrated formation of a new species. I'm not up with the latest on this, but the problem is it's virtually impossible to create in a laboratory the geographical conditions that lead to new species in the real world. This doesn't mean it didn't happen.
You say "but there is no evidence that would require the abandonment of alternative hypotheses for the origin of species (such as alien seeding, intelligent design, the multiverse, a creator, etc)."
Well theres quite a lot of evidence that suggests it's all rather unlikely. Also, if human or animal evolution was due to alien impregnation, where did aliens come from if not evolution? This is the same sort of problem as "who created the creator". It's all a bit of an intellectual dead end really.
You make the claim "In climate science, however, it’s harder to imagine ways to reject the mainstream understanding without reasonably attracting the label ‘anti-science’."
Yes, however I would suggest 95% of those who reject the science of climate change because they have vested interests in fossil fuels, or are worried about carbon taxes, etc,etc rather than as an academic exercise. Just imagine if we could solve global warming by fitting an inexpensive device to the exhaust pipe of our cars, and ask yourself how much scepticism would be left? Not all much I would suggest.
So vested interests, and various fears, and entrenched beliefs, might be causes of rejection of science. (You could add in genetic crop engineering). However I doubt these are the only things, recently, if you look at the comments various people make. There's an emergent distrust of elites, and rational evidence based thinking, that seems to go beyond just vested interests or fears about the effects of new technologies. This distrust has ideological roots, and is sometimes very unjustified.
-
Daniel Livingston at 16:22 PM on 25 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
On the whole I agree with the video and the comments here. However, evolution, vaccines and climate change are all very different things when it comes to the intersection of knowledge, beliefs and values and being able to neatly categorise extant positions as pro or anti-science.
Vaccines: usually the question is whether or not to vaccinate my kids rather than whether vaccines have efficacy. The latter question (efficacy at conferring immunity) is a question that can be answered scientifically. But the question of whether or not to vaccinate is not a scientific question, but a risk question based on individual values and the rights for informed choice when it comes to medical intervention. Of course, scientific evidence ideally should be the basis for informed decision-making. But unless it can be reliably demonstrated that pharmaceutical companies (and their regulators) never have or will allow any vaccines that could possibly have a net disbenefit to any group or individual, according to any set of values or criteria, then it is nonsensical to identify everyone who questions vaccine schedules as science deniers. For example, the government of Japan removed the MMR (combined) vaccine from its schedule due to concerns about the level of risk. Does that make Japan anti-science?
Evolution: most informed people are aware that there is abundant scientific evidence of natural selection that is essentially incontrovertible. What scientists have failed to ever once demonstrate, however, is that observable natural selection can be a means of producing new genetic information such that biodiversity or biogenesis can be explained in an observable, reproducible way. There is much scientific hypothesis for the explanation of the origin of species, but there is no evidence that would require the abandonment of alternative hypotheses for the origin of species (such as alien seeding, intelligent design, the multiverse, a creator, etc). There is also much scientific evidence for long geologic timescales, although there is still room for alternative explanations. Again, the broad question of origins (sometimes characterized as ‘creation vs evolution’) has possible answers that are considerably more nuanced than can be easily classified as pro or anti-science. I think we could hardly call John Lennox, for example, anti-science.
Climate change: I would argue that climate change, however, is a bit less nuanced than these other two topics in terms of being able to characterize participant behaviour as pro or anti-science. While the policy options, of course, are many, varied and thus inherently nuanced, the debate in this field is usually over whether anthropogenic global warming is actually happening. The evidence for this is overwhelmingly straightforward that it is. This is a field where anti-science is a real problem in terms of its impact on public discourse and policy.
Conclusion: I would argue that in the other areas (evolution and vaccines), while there are many anti-science perspectives out there, rejection of mainstream views is not always anti-science. In climate science, however, it’s harder to imagine ways to reject the mainstream understanding without reasonably attracting the label ‘anti-science’.
-
chriskoz at 14:45 PM on 25 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #16
I think the Realestate industry is going to be a canary for SLR. Check this article:
The nightmare scenario for Florida’s coastal homeowners
“Anybody in these floody areas, if they disclose to a buyer, the buyer probably won’t buy that property,” said Slap, whose company is doing work for the city of Miami Beach. “That’s going to drive the value down to zero, well before water is up to their front door.”
In Bangladesh, they are already facing this stage but no one cares about them as their monetary values are low (unjustly) but S Florida property market crash that we're going to witness very soon (I predict in a decade or two) will be covered in news spectacularly.
-
Ncrdbl1 at 09:52 AM on 25 April 2017Mars is warming
So you start off by saying there is no way to prove that Mars is warming. Then you go forth trying to explain why teh ice caps are shrinking.
Very simple reason, the temperature has moved above the freezing point. There is no other reason you can give to explaiin what us happening.
In layman's term it is WARMING.
You just do nto want to accept it because it will mean anotehr factor in play with our own planets which cause temperatures to change.
Most likely reason that could effect both planets ice caps???? SOLAR ACTIVITY.
Moderator Response:[JH] Sloganeering and all-caps snipped.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
-
nigelj at 09:00 AM on 25 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Tom Curtis @ 20
I think you are right that just because some christians believe in creationism, or some specific version of it, doesn't mean they all do. I have found a huge gradation of views in christians I know. Even as an athiest I respect certain religious ethical views. There can be common ground.
It's obviously also wrong to say that because one athiest has unusual astronomical beliefs that all do, or are all irrational.
I didn't realise creationsim and anti evolutionary thinking has been quite so powerful in the American education system, or at least in some states and historical periods. I think you are right it's certainly possible that children taught creationism, or some combinaton of this and evolution, will be confused, and it could also hard wire their brains towards irrational thinking, making it hard to decipher the climate issue for example. Or if not hardwire their brains, certainly become an embedded mode of operation.
Children go through well recognised phases of cognitive development, observed in the work of Piaget. This is hardly surprising as the brain is not fully biliogically developed early on so its really a question of understanding these stages, which is still somewhat of a work in progress.
It's believed these organic / developmental phases are in turn also influenced by feedback from the environnment, so religious teaching early on in life could well have a permanent effect that may be hard to undo later in life, and its possible one effect could be irrational thinking. Given children are getting such confliciting messages about rational processes in the real world, and a hidden supernatural god, some of their brains may develop with a weakened ability to rationally analyse things.
Also, according to Piaget humans operate by comparining ideas to results in the real world,as a way of evaluating reality, so children, adolescents and adults understand cause and effect to varying degrees. This understanding of cause and effect besomes more sophisticated with age and Piagets developmental periods. Unfortunately this probably explains why belief in an intelligent designer persists, as humans see that things are designed and work well, so assume humans are also designed by some hidden entity. So this is a sort of unfortunate side effect, or irony. However clearly most humans are smart enough to work out that such an assumption as this does not rise to the level of proof, and evolution provides an evidence and logic based explanation of how things came to be.
-
Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Well said, Nigelj & Tom!
Science isn't just about preserving and presenting knowledge, but a way of thinking that helps us acquire new knowledge and telling objective facts from wishful thinking. It is of course impossible for most laypeople to acquire an extensive scientific knowledge, but it would be highly beneficial for the society if they at least understood some basic facts and the scientific method a little better. That would be an efficient vaccine against irrational BS from those whose opinion is driven almost exclusively by religion, ideology or feelings.
Fortunately the irrational, anti-scientific madness that seems to be spreading in the English-speaking part of the world isn't quite as common here in Norway yet, although we have our share of AGW deniers. Most parties in the parliament also accept AGW even though the major parties haven't done much about it other than talking, and the greenest parties are pretty small.
The only party with a large share of AGW deniers is the right wing progress party (Fremskrittspartiet), which unfortunately is in coalition with the conservative party (Høyre) right now. Even though many of its members aren't quite as bad as Trump & Co, the previous party leader (Carl I. Hagen) is an all-out AGW denier. It's worth noting that the labour party (Arbeiderpartiet) hasn't done a noticeable better job than the present government when they had the chance. Their last prime minister, Jens Stoltenberg (now the secretary general of NATO), is considered an "oil man" by the environmental movement here. If I should rank the Norwegian parties from worst to best when it comes to environmental views it would be something like this:The Progress party The Centre party (about equally bad)
The Conservatives The Labour (about equally inadequate)
The Christian democrats
The Socialistic Left The Liberal Left (about equally good)
The Green Party (best)The Centre party is a special case as it in some ways is better than the Conservatives & Labour, but as a special interest party for farmers it is by far the worst party when it comes to conservation and habitat protection. If it was up to them alone, the last minor populations of Norwegian wolves, brown bears, lynxes and wolverines would surely be exterminated, and possibly the golden eagles, too.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 07:39 AM on 25 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
This post and the comments got me thinking, and revisiting things, a lot more than I initially thought I would.
One of the most comprehensive and significant Emergent Truths is that the future of humanity requires leadership towards achieving the internationally developed and agreed Sustainable Development Goals (which includes aggressive action to limit climate change impacts form human activity). And it is indeed many Political people (including politically motivated Business-minded people), not Science people, who are failing to do what Ethical Leaders need to do for the future of Humanity.
John Adams (2nd President of the USA) said “The preservation of the means of knowledge among the lowest ranks is of more importance to the public than all the property of all the rich men in the country.”
What is now undeniable is that many current developments have been pushed very far in understandably inappropriate directions. Those understandably unacceptable pursuits Won, and continue to Win, because of the lack of awareness and lack of responsible evaluation of the appropriateness of an activity. Evaluation should be determining that an activity is a development that sustainably improves the future for all of humanity. Popularity and profitability clearly do not produce that evaluation. As a result, there is damaging over-development and powerful support for it. Those who have Won, or want to Win more, through inappropriately directed over-development refuse to admit that their perceptions of prosperity or opportunity are unjustified. They demand 'proof to their satisfaction' of the unacceptability of their desires and beliefs.
The lack of winning by people with Good Ethical Objective/Purpose is the real problem.
But the comments lead me to more thoughts.
My understanding is that Star Trek presented the value of a robust diversity of people working collectively to better understand how to make things better. The United Federation of Planets was a diverse mix. And the Prime Directive in their exploration for New Life and New Civilizations was not to Conquer, Exploit, or Melt Them into Oneness. It was to avoid interfering in the development of alien civilizations (exceptions were made when there was evidence that one group was doing harm to Others or when help could reduce suffering). The Nemesis of the Federation, the Romulans and the Klingons, were presented as Empire Pursuing Mono-Cultures, lacking broad diversity.
The fundamentals of Start Trek can be understood to be similar to simple key points regarding “what life is all about” that have been developed and presented repeatedly throughout the history of humanity. It is a lesson constantly re-learned as the unethical reality of Winners re-emerge after too many people fail to honour this Good Purpose/Best Objective in all of their thoughts and actions.
Einstein also said “Only a life lived for others is a life worth while.” and “Science without religion is lame; religion without science is blind.”
And Sagan said “Skeptical scrutiny is the means, in both science and religion, by which deep thoughts can be winnowed from deep nonsense.”
Lord Acton made a related point “Everything secret degenerates, nothing is safe that does not bear discussion and publicity.”
Human history is full of quotes that reflect those understandings of Good Purpose or Objectives and the importance of honest pursuit of understanding guided by a Good Objective or Purpose. The internationally established Sustainable Development Goals are an integrated set of objectives that have been developed through the pursuit of better understanding that is consistent with those fundamental Good Objectives/Purposes. Yet we see a powerful nation like the USA having its leadership being Won by people whose actions can be seen to be contrary to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (including attempts to discredit or disrespect climate science and reverse actions that would have helped).
It becomes essential to understand what keeps humanity from developing and sustaining a stronger consensus of better understanding regarding how to improve the future for all of humanity.
- Unethical Creators of Perceptions have been winning competitions for popularity and profitability.
- They can get a competitive advantage from not caring about Others (Winning by appealing to the tendency of people to be Selfish, Tribal, Nationalistic, Xenophobic).
- They have a competitive advantage of not caring about the future (Winning by appealing to the tendency of people to be Greedy).
To cynically quote the Marquise de Sade “It is infinitely better to take the side of the wicked who prosper than of the righteous who fail”. A related more ancient quote of Anacharsis (c. 600 BC) is “The market-place is a place set aside where men may deceive and overreach each other.” (these are not new realizations).
Mortimer Adler presented what is required of Leaders from his understanding of Aristotle. “In Aristotelian terms, the good leader must have ethos, pathos, and logos. The ethos is his moral character, the source of his ability to persuade. The pathos is his ability to touch feelings, to move people emotionally. The logos is his ability to give solid reasons for an action, to move people intellectually.”
Clearly, many smart people have learned how to abuse the power of pathos to influence people who are content to have a lesser degree of logos if it suits their desire to benefit from an understandably unacceptable ethos.
Unethical smart people continue to be able to Win competitions for popularity and profitability, to the detriment of others, particularly to the detriment of the future of humanity. As one of the many developed better understandings of what is going on, the 1987 UN Report “Our Common Future”, bluntly points out:
“25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.”Donald Trump has stated he is a fan of “Getting even, Getting revenge”. He has little to fear from his actions that undeniably delay or diminish efforts towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, creating larger negative consequences for future generations, because the future generations Cannot Get Even.
Leaders must clearly be measured by how responsibly they lead to the improvement of understanding and the required changes to develop a better life for all in the near and distant future (which undeniably requires improving the future for a robust diversity of all life on this amazing planet, pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals, not fighting against them).
The need for scientists to step up and try to overcome the misleading marketing efforts of Winning unethical leaders, in the most influential nation and many other supposedly “more advanced” nations on this amazing planet, who Fail to provide responsible Good Leadership (preferring to be modern day likes of the thinking of the Marquis de Sade), is tragic proof of the continuation of the long human history of failing to sustainably develop better understanding from previous tragedies of historic proportions.
Constantly improving the future for a robust diversity of life on this amazing planet has to matter more than many competitors for popularity and profitability would care to have it matter. Developing and sustaining that awareness and understanding is undeniably essential to most rapidly protect and improve the future for humanity. Climate Scientists have a major role in that effort. However, what is missing, a missing link, is overwhelming well-informed support for Winning by Ethical Leaders (and as in Sports: for the Good of the Game, assessing penalties for unethical pursuers of Winning).
-
Tom Curtis at 07:03 AM on 25 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
DCricket @18, Mal Adapted @19, neither can the attempts by various creationists to prohibit the teaching of evolution, and/or force the teaching of (the self contradicting) "creation science" or its santitized verion (and empirically false) "intelligent design" be generalized to all Christians, or indeed, holders of any other religious belief.
It remains the fact that in the US there have been repeated, and more or less extensive efforts to prohibit the teaching of evolution, and/or mandate the teaching of creationism. The first such efforts date from the early 1920s, when three states banned the teaching of evolution at least in part, a situation that continued till 1967 when such bans were declared unconstitutional. The history of attempts to circumvent such bans have since been written in the courts. Unlike the case of Dcrickett's lone, scientifically illiterate atheist, the campaigns by creationists have been extensive and well funded. Despite legal losses, individual teachers have frequently allowed their religion to trump their duties and the law; and religious schools (and of course, the home schooled) have not even had that legal protection. I find it very unlikely that this concerted progaganda program has not had an effect on the ability to reason among the US public.
-
Mal Adapted at 05:53 AM on 25 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Dcrickett, to the extent your story is true, it is horrifying. You report a bad experience with a teacher, who was a shallow atheist and a DK-afflicted wannabe astronomer to boot. I'm certainly glad I never had a teacher like that.
Whether or not your experience is wholly factual, however, it can't be generalized to either atheists or astronomers.
-
jeffronicus at 01:03 AM on 25 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #16
@RickG Concur; 280ppm is the pre-industrial level.
-
Dcrickett at 12:13 PM on 24 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
I was in a one-room country schoolhouse in the 1940's; we started in kindergarten and went thru 9th grade; anything beyond that, our families had to get us to other schools. Our teacher "believed" that Mars had an orbit between Venus and Earth. Not because of the Bible; she was an atheist who ridiculed us Christians and Jews. I got a whupping for bringing in a book from the public library in a nearby city which gave the proper planetary sequence, the same as the ancient World Book Encyclopedia in the back of the room; they were both full of lies by evil Capitalists who wanted to keep us ignorant.
We have made little progress, it sometimes seems. At least back then, during recess and lunch hour we could go into the woods on the hill behind the school and swing on the vines; it was great to be little Tarzans and Janes.
I complained to my parents, to no avail. Dad was on the school board; teachers were hard to find, and ours was a very poor district. At least we learned our Three R's, so we could learn from libraries and... those perverted high schools (and univertities, for some of us).
-
RickG at 11:54 AM on 24 April 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #16
In the 'reaching 410 ppm CO2 article', it states: " carbon dioxide has set a record high each year since measurements began. It stood at 280 ppm when record keeping began at Mauna Loa in 1958". Is the 280 ppm not a misprint, or am I misunderstanding the context?
At the Scripps site "The History of the Keeling Curve", it states: "in March 1958 and on the first day of operation recorded an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 313 ppm." (Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2013/04/03/the-history-of-the-keeling-curve/)
Moderator Response:[BW] Thanks for the heads-up. We checked with Brian Kahn from Climate Central and he updated this in his article to 315 ppm. So we've followed suit.
-
Mal Adapted at 10:24 AM on 24 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Chriskoz:
I would not call the poor voters simply the others who express their "opinion", I would rather call them victims of a lie or of a clever deceit.
Except that popular sovereignity under a democratic form of government can't be stable even in theory, if the voters don't discern truth from falsehood; otherwise it's not necessary to fool all the people all the time, only a plurality. I pay attention to the man behind the curtain, shouldn't I expect my fellow citizens to do the same? There's nothing special about me, after all!
-
nigelj at 07:51 AM on 24 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
Tom Curtis @15, I guess it varies country to country. In my country of NZ we didn't get any creationism in schools, just genetics and darwinian evolution (although not in much depth I have to say, which shows an attempt to skirt around it at least a little). I can see America is different from what you say, with a strong anti evoultion bias in schools, and this has wide implications.
I still think Kirk was a nice balance of logic (or rationality) and instincts. I agree perfect is probably too much to claim, but can you think of a better role model in American pop culture? Spock was presented as the very logical guy, Dr McCoy as the very emotional character.
I'm suspicious of instincts and gut reactions, as they can lead to the worst sort of things, like racism and bigotry, but I did read an article some time ago as below showing instincts have more value than thought, in some ways on some issues.
-
Tom Curtis at 07:21 AM on 24 April 2017Neil deGrasse Tyson on science vs. denial
nigelj @14, unfortunately for the US, and for people of your age (and probably younger), many peoples science education would have been distorted by either, the teaching of creationism rather than evolution with or without education board approval (I have heard there are many cases of teachers refusing to teach evolution, or insisting on teaching creationism based on their personal religious beliefs and contrary to the syllabus), or the refusal to teach evolution because "it was wrong because it is contradicted by the Bible", or being taught evolution but also being taught at home or from the pulpit that evolution is false, the devil's doctrine, and that scientists only teach evolution because of their atheistic bias and/or because of a conspiracy by Satan.
If they have encountered any of these situations, they would have "learnt" that whole disciplines of science can be massively wrong due to initial biases by/ and or conspiracies involving the relevant scientists.
Indeed, given the timing of their deaths, it is quite likely that the Asimov and the Sagan quotes were addressing the inimical effects of creationism on public attitudes, and the likely conesquences when policy must increasingly be guided by science.
On another issue, while Spock is presented as a paragon of logic without emotion, and Kirk as an emotional and intuitive leader, neither were in fact the case as scripted and acted. I would certainly not claim Kirk as scripted and acted was a role model of "the perfect balance of rationality, instincts and emotion".
Prev 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 Next
