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Comments 20651 to 20700:

20651. chriskoz at 13:16 PM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       A recent very fashionable term "fake news", "fake facts" sounds more polite than "denial" or "denialism", maybe we should switch to it here?

       Ben, in this interview, uses the new term in a very cheerful way to the gtear effect. I admire him for his casual attitude while talking about issues that will be classified in the future as social deceptions & environmental crimes, the attitude required by the program's format (comedy). I would not be able to do the same in Ben's shoes: I'm getting angry when I see irrational arguments or logical fallacy in the arguments of any discutant. It takes quite a skill to fight irrationale with a laugh.

20652. Rob Honeycutt at 13:03 PM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       nigelj... That's interesting, because in my interactions with him online, that's almost exactly how I'd describe him.

20653. nigelj at 12:50 PM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Sailing free @14, yes say that "you are wrong and look it up" or something similar, but with some detail obviously on what you think on the issues.

       I'm merely saying I think be careful before accusing people of lying, or getting very rude with people by calling them names. The denialists are trying to bait people into losing control. 

       Having said that I see nothing wrong with telling people their thinking is a bit idiotic, occasionally. Theres no point being excessively polite either, and boring everyone to tears. Hope I'm not being contradictory.

       It's finding a balance somewhere between blatant rudeness and over politeness. It's just my opinion, and you can do whatever you want. 

20654. nigelj at 12:33 PM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       Rob Honeycutt @6, I just have a comment on your suspicions that this Scott Adams displays sociopathic tendencies. 

       I think you are right he has some personality issue, but maybe not sociopathic as such. I did stage 1 (introductory)  psychology and have come across sociopathic people. The defining characteristics are lack of conscience and empathy, lying with impunity (well beyond the norm) and hyper self confidence, and strong controlling tendencies. I'm not seeing this with Adams so much.

       In fact sociopathy is in the class of disorders which is just an extreme variation of normal behaviour. You have a spectrum between extreme empathy towards sociopathy at the other extreme. Most of us are somewhere in the middle.

       He has some features of sociopathy but not enough to fill the description.

       I think Adams is more an extreme cynic and extreme nuisance and intellectually lazy, and a bit obsessive.  Being a very extreme cynic could possibly become a personality disorder.

       He is worried about apparent contradictions (so he alleges) in the climate issue. Well it can be frustrating, but there are reasons for all the stuff he complains about if you start digging. Climate change will be a complex mix of things going on because of the number of variables and the fact we cant put the planet in a lab, but theres enough evidence for high levels of certainty on what's going on.

       I can however think of a few politicians who look a bit sociopathic. 

20655. Doug_C at 12:30 PM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       @Wake

       "There are several "safe" nuclear power cycles but we had protests on every campus in California and in the streets and so PG&E closed down all but one I believe. And this one is due to end soon. They didn't want "safer" nuclear power - they wanted an entire end to it."

       There are modern Pressurized and Boiling Water reactor designs that have significant safety factors designed into them, thorium fueled molten salt reactors are a complete departure from solid fueled reactors. First off as described they simply can not melt down, the fissile material is already in a salt solution that is circulated through a gaphite core and to a heat exchange loop. They also aren't pressurized and can not undergo catastrophic loss of coolant. Fission products like Xenon-135 that make solid fuel rods unusuable after a few years can be be removed while the reactor is running. This can also be done with medical radio-isotopes used in imaging and cancer treatment, every molten salt reactor is also medical grade radioisotope producer.

       In terms of waste a single stage thorium fueled MSR uses about 50% of the fuel input as compared to less than 1% for PWRs and BWRs. A two stage thorium reactor with an outer loop containing thorium in molten salt being transmuted by neutron capture would give almost 99% fuel efficiency. These reactors also run at much higher temperatures meaning much higher thermal efficiency with the result that water is not necessary for cooling to produce power but it does increase efficiency even more.

       In a state like California with severe pressures on water resources something like an MSR could actually produce large amounts of electricty, a constant supply of medical radioisotopes and desalinate sea water. As for safety, to shut off an MSR you turn off the core circulation pumps and the cooling fan for the frozen salt plug in the reactor vessel drain. It melts and you core drains into sub-critical storage under the reactor.

       The waste produced by thorium fueled MSRs is much less and easier to handle than solid fueled reactors. Instead of large amounts of solid fuel needing to be stored safely for thousands of years, much of the by-products coming out of an MSR are commercially valuable like the radioisotopes, Xenon for high efficiency deep mission rocket engine and even small amounts of noble metals like gold and platinum.

       Most of the waste is much lighter fission products with short half lifes which have decayed to ground state within 10 years and the remainder is hazardous for about 300 years, that's slightly over 10% of the total waste.

       A thorium powered MSR gives much less waste, valuable materials in constant production, can be used to desalinate large amounts of sea water, can't melt down, has much higher thermal efficiency and is fueled by an element in the same abundance as lead.

       If we began large scale conversion of our energy production to thorium based MSRs there wouldn't be an energy shortage, and our carbon emissions would drop significantly within decades. This in combination with all other low carbon energy resources. There's more than enough energy to replace fossil fuels, and do so in a way that has benefits that oil, coal and gas never will.

       That is one option and there are many goods ones that if implemented in a planned phaseout of fossil fuels would at least give us a shot at mitigation of climate change. Itès netirely possible that we will need in the coming decades to go to a carbon negative energy model to avoid catastrophic impacts.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Just a heads up that this is rapidly heading offtopic. Please do not turn this thread into a place for arguing the pros and cons of nuclear power. Those interested in the topic are invited to use BraveNewClimate instead.

20656. Philippe Chantreau at 11:56 AM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       To elaborate on that, we do see impaired cognition in COPD patients having exacerbations and other patients who are hypercarbic for other reasons. In fact, altered mental status is a relatively early warning sign that will prompt us to do an arterial blood gas analysis, as the patient could positive end pressure ventilation, usually non invasive but that can progress to invasive if there is no response.

       However, there has to be a significant departure from baseline, which can be very high for some COPD sufferers who learn to function with much higher levels of CO2 than the normal population. In fact, these patients often do not benefit from oxygen at all, because their ventilatory rate regulation (which happens in the brain stem) is modified and responds to variation in oxygen content rather than CO2 in a normal person. Additional oxygen reduces their respiratory drive. 

       I am not sure about how much of a fraction of CO2 in ambient air would be equivalent to what they experience through impaired ventilation.

20657. Philippe Chantreau at 11:47 AM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       From what I know, hypoxia is much more likely to affect cognition and the brain will also be much sensitive to hypoxemia than hypercapnia. Without looking at the study mentioned by Tom, I'm assuming that, in general, recirculated air would be more likely to cause impaired cognition due to the decreased oxygen content and corresponding decreased gas exchange. There may be other effects than cognitive due to impaired exchange of the CO2, the main being acidosis, which is not good news.

20658. Tom Curtis at 11:36 AM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       Digby Scorgie @20, the standard view is that reduced cognitive function at about 1000 ppmv is due to accumulation of other gases in minute traces.  CO2 is just a useful indicator of poor ventilation.  One study I looked at that purported to show otherwise did not show reduced cognitive function when high CO2 levels were generated by introducing CO2, although they did when lower CO2 levels were generated by recirculating interior air.  To my mind, that confirms the conventional view rather than rebuts it.  (Unfotunately I do not have the study to hand or I would give more detail.)  Of course, there may be other studies that do show an effect from CO2 only at levels potentially obtainable by CO2 emissions in the next 100-200 years, but the idea should be regarded as controversial at least.

20659. michael sweet at 11:27 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       I looked at hte reference  Rob Honeycutt posted at 18.  It said:

       "In 2014, roughly 85% of primary energy use in Iceland came from indigenous renewable resources. There of 66% was from geothermal."

       Most of the remaining energy was generated using Hydro.  The non-renewable energy was primarily oil for transportation and fishing.  When they switch to electric cars they will be  almost 100% renewable.

       70% of their electricity (which is very cheap since there are no fuel costs) is used to make aluminum which is exported.  Geothermal energy is so cheap they use a lot of it to heat outdoor swimming pools!

       The Icelanders will lead the way to show others how to go carbon free!  Too bad their model cannot be reproduced in many other areas.  You would think that Hawaii could access geothermal.

20660. Digby Scorgie at 11:16 AM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       sauerj @18

       I had a look at your story.  I like the atom-bomb analogy.  A concept I thought of that might help is to liken atmospheric CO₂ to a goldilocks gas: too little and the planet freezes, too much and the planet sweats.

       One thing you could perhaps consider is to clarify the effect that the sheer inertia of the climate system has.  As I understand it, for example, the last time CO₂ levels were at 400 ppm was a little over three million years ago in the Pliocene.  At that time average global temperatures were two or three degrees Celsius higher than today, there was not much snow and ice around, and sea levels were some 25 metres higher.  We'll get there too, but it'll take time for the climate system to reach the new equilibrium.  In the meantime, CO₂ levels are rising even higher . . .

       A final point concerns something I learnt only recently.  It seems that people are not comfortable with CO₂ concentrations above about 600 ppm.  The more it exceeds that level, the greater the cognitive decline that sets in.  This is all the more reason to limit emissions.

20661. sailingfree at 10:40 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Thank you nigelj.   So I simply say to Wake, "you are wrong, look it up".

20662. nigelj at 09:44 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       I have looked at two of the Santer video's, and they are great videos, clear, concise, perfectly true, and the guy is warm and has a sense of humour. You couldn't expect more in two minutes. If people still don't get it, maybe they are just closed minded.

       Saying the satellite record showed no warming was always false.  Clearly the warming trend was obvious, and is now even more obvious since the 2015 and 2016 temperatures were released.

       I have a very low opinion of climate denialists views and tactics, however I don't think it's wise to call people liars or dishonest, unless you are very sure, and proving lies is hard. Cruz is probably repeating and exaggerating some denialist claim that the satellite warming does not appear as strong as surface warming. The public won't like it if things descend to a shouting match of the form, "you are a liar, no I'm not a liar" or personal attacks, and will turn their back on the whole climate thing.

       However Cruz is plain wrong, and he needs to be told exactly that in those words.  It's fair to be strongly and bluntly critical of Cruz for not respecting overwhelming expert commentary that there's a warming trend, and not respecting simple, accepted mathematical tools to establish such trends, that are  used throughout science and are fully proven to be valid. Cruz should also be strongly criticised for relying on just one data set, especially when there are concerns over it's reliability.

20663. Doug_C at 08:30 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       I think it's also important to point out that for science to operate as intended it must leave room for doubt and modification. The denial of science faces no such challenges.

       Deniers can claim with full certainty than the Earth is in fact not warming, or if it is it's not because of us. Or even that we're now in a cooling trend. All with perfect certainty but little to no factual support. This can be traced directly back to the tobacco lobby which took almost exactly the same approach of not just challenging the data but attacking the scientific method itself.

       The background claim of deniers isn't just that the data is wrong on climate change but that science itself is unreliable because it all includes an error margin. Not explaining that everything does, it's just that in science this is incorporated and quantified in a way that isn't in most other disciplines. With the result that successively complex ideas can be built into comprehensive bodies of knowledge that can be effectively tested.

       It's simply easier to tell most people that something is right or wrong and much more difficult to communicate the complex inter-relationships that give us a much better understanding of the natural world through science.

       In a largley PR battle - as we see with climate change - scientists have one arm tied behind their back bacause they will not categorically deny anything...and neither should they. They speak in probabilities and the best information currently available.

20664. Philippe Chantreau at 08:11 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       I think we are veering too far off the subject while injecting some reality to counter Wake's unsupported assertions. The subject of this thread is the manipulation of data, misrepresentation of science and abuse of public trust by specific individuals. Ben Santer has gone through a pretty thorough process and demonstrates that the word denier is entirely appropriate to designate some who have distorted the scientific findings.

       Wake is making a strong case to reinforce that demonstration by throwing anything he can find at the wall to see if something sticks, and in the process tries to represents some science as saying exactly the opposite of what it actually says.

       Nonetheless, the arguments presented by Wake do not belong on this thread. If he wants to talk about glacial cycles, there are threads for that. This one here is about deniers in a position of power misleading the public. If he dislikes the word denier, he can attempt to go through Ben Santer's analysis and show by some solid reasoning that Santer is wrong. I doubt that it's possible to do without a messy divorce from reality. I hope mods move this discussion where it belongs; we are getting distracted by smoke and mirrors. The issue is the blatant nonsense spewed by Ted Cruz, let's stick to that.

20665. Doug_C at 07:37 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       As an example of what I'm saying, individual activity has little impact if official policy includes activity that maintains the use of fossil fuel.

       I haven't had a car for a decade and walk, bike or ride transit for transportation.

       But it's official policy here to encourage the growth of tar sands development that over the next several decades will add billions more tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at a time when almost all the available evidence indicates that will result in catastrophic impacts.

20666. Doug_C at 07:16 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       @ Wake

       "fossil fuel companies do not "create" a virtual monopoly. The population as a whole decides what they wish to buy and does so. You have the alternative of electric cars, bicycle or walking. Over the last 6 years I have put more miles on my bicycles than on my car. Many of my friends do not even own cars. Neither do they use commercial airlines. Do you?"

       The amount of money that goes into determining policy and also the subsidies that are then sent back to the sector involved argues strongly against that. Renewables are almost certainly competing against a fixed deck where "cheap" fossil fuels hold the strategic high ground.

       The population as a whole is almost entirely left out of decision making processes, something we see here - Canada - constantly. So instead of comprehensive programs to begin a system wide transition to a low carbon dioxide emitting energy model, there is a piecemeal approach to renewables but a system wide approach to maintaining fossil fuel production with the result that there will be decades more of extensive use of fossil fuels at the level of burning billions of tons a year with the current "business as usual". Resulting in the catastrophic impacts that have already begun and will likely increase.

       As has been explained, this is not because there are not alternatives, there are many. It's due to multi-level actions on the part of involved industry that we aren't seeing the large scale transition to renewable energy resources. First off to deny there is even a need to transition off of their products that can be traced right back to the disinformation campaign created by the tobacco lobby. Secondly by massively funded lobbying to sway policy makers at all levels to continue the use of fossil fuels.

       This has been the pattern with growing force and apparentness since at least the late 1980s and it could be argued it started a decade earlier. While at the same time the technology for producing low carbon emitting energy has rapidly matured.

       Best practices with the best technology available are clearly not being applied on the largest scale when the evidence is looked at. We are still in a policy holding pattern that continues the massive burning of fossil fuels at a time when the valid science is stating clearly the likely catastrophic impacts.

       Fossil fuels are not cheap or sustainble on any level when the likely consequences of their use is social, economic and ecological losses on a level hard to contemplate let alone quantify.

20667. HK at 07:04 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Wake #2:
       "…. you will see that the Milankovitch Cycles suggest that we should be in a warmer part of their cycles."

       No!
       The summer insolation at high northern latitudes won’t change much over the next 20,000 years. If we were in an ice age (or more precisely a glacial period) right now, we would almost certainly stay there for at least the next 25,000 years without any human intervention.

       Hmm….it seems that Tom was faster than me with his graph in #9, but here is mine!

       

20668. Tom Curtis at 06:52 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Rob Honeycutt @18, it is almost as though he was in denial about AGW.

20669. Tom Curtis at 06:51 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Wake @2, following on from Mal Adapted's comment, here is the insolation at 65^o North in a more detailed scale:

       

       The image is from WUWT, from a post in which David Archibald argues we are entering a new ice age.  He, however, has prior form which indicates he does not know what he is talking about when it comes to temperature predictions, but the graph is accurate.  As can be easily seen on that graph, summer insolation at 65^o North is near a minimum but still declining.  Absent some other driver of climate, we would still be cooling.  Instead we have soared to temperatures comparable to those at the Holocene Climate Optimum.

20670. Rob Honeycutt at 06:08 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       I'm having trouble grasping what could possibly be "unreliable" about geothermal energy. In fact, of all sources of energy, where it works well, it would be more reliable than any other sources. Iceland gets 25% of their electricity from geothermal due to their local geology. 

       I have a real problem with people, like Wake, who state things that are clearly wrong, won't listen when corrected, and then go on to repeat and add to their errors.

20671. Mal Adapted at 05:55 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Wake:

       If you observe earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_Evidence/ you will see that the Milankovitch Cycles suggest that we should be in a warmer part of their cycles.

       Actually, you won't see that. The time resolution of the graphs on that page isn't sufficient.  In fact, climate scientists generally agree that we've passed the peak warming in this inter-glacial, and without the fossil carbon we've returned to the atmosphere it would be cooling.

       So whether man has anything to do with the warming climate is what the question is and that is not answered. Calling those who suggest this "deniers" in the same sort of personal insults that the "deniers" are forbidden to do on this site.

       They are called [AGW-]deniers because it's long since been shown that the warming is at least %100 anthropogenic, that is, the sum of "natural" forcings is cooling.  There's no shame in not knowing that initially, but anyone who insists that "whether man has anything to do with the warming climate" hasn't been answered, when it's easy enough to find out that it has, is in denial. 

       On the Internet, you can find all the evidence and analysis that supports the lopsided consensus of working climate scientists for AGW, but you also can find a lot of false facts and logical fallacies. You'll need to know how to tell the difference, and not assume that you have all the knowledge you need to contradict genuine experts until you're one of them (when you are, everyone will know it).  Otherwise, get used to being called an AGW-denier.

       In particular, if the US National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of the UK, two of the world's most respected scientific bodies, jointly publish in 2014 a report that begins with (emphasis in the original),

       CLIMATE CHANGE IS ONE OF THE DEFINING ISSUES OF OUR TIME. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate.

       then you should be very skeptical of anyone who says it's still not certain!

20672. Tom Curtis at 05:53 AM on 16 March 2017
       As EPA head, Scott Pruitt must act on climate change
       

       Wake @7:

       "I have stated elsewhere..."

       And you were thoroughly refuted elsewhere as well.  Responding to a refutation of your views be simply restating them on another thread is bad form.  If done repeatedly it shows you to be a troll, and is violation of the SkS comments policy.

20673. Philippe Chantreau at 05:48 AM on 16 March 2017
       As EPA head, Scott Pruitt must act on climate change
       

       www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/8/605/2016/essd-8-605-2016.html

       www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n10/fig_tab/nclimate1942_F1.html

       www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Carbon+Uptake

       Wake is making strange arguments and offering no references. The carbon cycle is not nearly as mysterious as he suggests, and the oceans are a well known carbon sink. Sinks are the reason why atmosheric carbon has not risen as much as could be expected at first glance from human emissions, which are indeed staggering. USGS estimates the total anthropogenic contribution to be close to 100X that of volcanic activity, so it is indeed a geological scale event that we are witnessing. Wake is correct in his assessment that the rise is entirely due to human emissions.

20674. nigelj at 05:46 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Wake @12

       "Firstly - geothermal and biomass aren't really "renewables". Geothermal sources are extremely rare in the USA and most other places as well. And they are of questionable "reliability".

       I live in New Zealand. We get 10% of our electricity from geothermal and more is planned. I have never heard of any reliability problems at all in the last 50 years, and I take an interest in this sort of thing.

       en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_New_Zealand#Geothermal

       Solar output does fall on cloudy days. I think its reasonable to suggest the design engineers would actually be aware of this, and things would be designed accordingly with enough capacity to cope with varied conditions.

20675. Tom Curtis at 05:33 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Wake @12, the data for California renewable sources comes from the California Energy Commission, as does the table to which you link.  Further, allowing for rounding the data in the pie chart @6 is the same as that from the table to which you linked except for two entries.  First, the table shows 7,500 GWh of biomass vs 8,600 GWh on the pie chart.  However, the table shows "data as of July, 11 2016", whereas the pie chart is from a document published in Oct, 2016 and "last updated December, 22 2016".  In other words, the pie chart represents more recent data, and is to be preferred on that ground.

       The other difference is that the table shows a total energy use of 295,405 GWh compared to 255,300 GWh on the pie chart.  Looking in the fine print of the report in which the pie chart was published, that is because that data excluded power used to pump water in pumped hydro schemes along with "excluded entities", ie, "...electricity delivered to federal Department of Energy facilities, military bases, water pumping facilities such as the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project, utility use, electric vehicle charging, and street lighting" which are excluded from the renewable energy target by the statute.  A case can be made that the exclusion of pumping costs for pumped hydro is appropriate, but the other is not for the purposes of this discussion.  Consequently I am quite happy to use the data from the table for which you provided the link.

       Using that table, we still find a combined 13.9% of Californian power production, and 14.2% of Californian power usage coming from wind and solar.  This represents an underestimate because rooftop solar is not included.  Further, part of the mix of "unspecified sources of power" are from hydro plants (presumably large scale hydro).  Regardless of the underestimate, the data from the table is an order of magnitude larger than your "3% and a normal year will give them 2%" estimate for all "alternative power", ie, non-fossil fuel or nuclear power.

       At some point you need to start acknowledging errors, and correcting them or you will no longer be taken seriously.

       On a side note, given San Francisco's latitude (37.8^o North) the best yearly average power for a fixed solar panel will be obtained by tilting the panel 37.8^o from the horizontal towards the south.  That will give peak power in spring and autumn, and reduced power in summer and winter.  You may prefer more winter or (I think more likely in California) summer power.  Peak summer power will be obtained with a 15^o tilt, while peak winter power requires a 40^o tilt.  You may also prefer more power in the afternoon, which requires a slight tilt towards the west.  Any of these alterations will reduce your total annual production, but increase the production at the most convenient times and seasons.  The idea that the system will produce effectively nothing with a 10^o tilt is bunk.

20676. Rob Honeycutt at 05:28 AM on 16 March 2017
       As EPA head, Scott Pruitt must act on climate change
       

       Wake... "Exactly how can the science be undeniable with huge gaps between the modeling and reality?"

       You keep making completely unsubstantiated statements that are not based in fact. Take some time to read up on these issues before you make such sweeping and inaccurate statements.

20677. Philippe Chantreau at 05:20 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       This could be more appropriate for another thread (glacial cycles). I am well aware, as are all others who have done the least bit of digging on the subject, of Milankovitch cycles. Unlike what Wake suggests ("injecting more energy"), the cycles do not change how much energy is received from the Sun but rather its ditribution on the surface, which is especially important in the Northern hemisphere. Tamino has examined the issue in some detail in the past. 

       I followed the link in Wake's post and the graphs posted do not indicate at all that we should be heading into a warmer period. In fact, it is exactly the opposite: we are coming from a warm period, called interglacial when considered in the context of glaciation cycles. The global climate should be getting cooler, sea ice and land ice should be slowly increasing if it was only up to Milankovitch cycles. This is clearly visible in the 2 graphs at the bottom right of the page linked by Wake. There is a large body of research about the subject, with graphs that are easier to read than the ones on the linked NASA page (long time scale). Most sources show that these are normally slow changes. SkS also has examined the argument hinged on "coming out of an ice age" although the more common argument pertains to the so-called "Little Ice Age."

       We have had on multiple occasions posters referencing legitimate science and attempting to make it say the opposite of what it actually says. It shouldn't be a suprise that this kind of argument is not well received.

20678. nigelj at 05:18 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Wake @2 says"

       "If you observe earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_Evidence/ you will see that the Milankovitch Cycles suggest that we should be in a warmer part of their cycles."

       I can't see this in the article. In fact the following article on milankovitch cycles clearly states "We are currently in a decreasing phase, which under normal circumstances, without the excess GHG’s, would cool the climate system"

       ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/milankovitch-cycles

       In any event the changes from the Milankovitch cycle cause very small changes in temperature over thousands of years, and cannot possibly explain the rapidity of warming over the last 50 years.

20679. Doug_C at 05:18 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Slight correction in my above comment, photons emitted by the Earth's surface are of course of much longer wavelength that those emitted from the surface of the Sun.

20680. Wake at 05:02 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Rob, you are correct in that cattlefeed did slip my mind. And I was referring to corn used directly as food and not as a sweetening or bulk products added to most other manufactured foods. These are neither necessary or particularly healthy.

       As for solar: www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/04/2015-top-ten-pv-cell-manufacturers.html As you can see that more than half of the world's solar panels are made by the top ten companies. The majority of the other 47% is made in the Philipines and other far eastern areas.

       Only one of the companies is American and most of their production is in Malaysia.

       Who would have expected that the heating bill in the summer would be lower than in the winter? But my electricity bill has risen over the last three years from $20 to $40 a month and that is steady regardless of season. And I do not live in a particularly large home at 1400 square feet and homes in places like Illinois or Texas or Florida in middle class neighborhoods are usually nearly twice that area with the same number of bedrooms and baths. What's more I keep my heater settings to 62 most of the time raising to 68 only in the morning for a couple of hours and in the evening until 10 pm. If you are inplying that I am wasting energy and therefore that is why my bill would be so high you're incorrect. What's more I have double insulated windows and insulated attic. Something that most homes in this area do not. And for all of that I have to wear a jacket inside of my home most of the winter. And I'll warrant that I'm in much better health than you are.

       My conversation has nothing whatsoever to do with the private purchase of solar panels. That is your call and you are welcome to it.

       Doug - fossil fuel companies do not "create" a virtual monopoly. The population as a whole decides what they wish to buy and does so. You have the alternative of electric cars, bicycle or walking. Over the last 6 years I have put more miles on my bicycles than on my car. Many of my friends do not even own cars. Neither do they use commercial airlines. Do you?

       You have alternatives and yet proclaim a monopoly. It wasn't the oil companies that closed down the nuclear power plants in California. It was the environmentalists. There are several "safe" nuclear power cycles but we had protests on every campus in California and in the streets and so PG&E closed down all but one I believe. And this one is due to end soon. They didn't want "safer" nuclear power - they wanted an entire end to it.

       Do you think that there will be less CO2 generated by burning some other form of carbon? That is curious indeed.

       I will ask you as well as others - with your complaints about fossil fuels have you stopped driving? Most power comes from fossil fuels so even electric cars burn fuel even if you appologize for it by saying that you get better fuel economy. The "Energy Stored On Investment" of all battery systems is lousy. Using excess electricity generated by renewable energy sources to pump water back into dams when available is some 25 times more efficient than the very best battery systems. That should tell you something. All of this completely ignores the problems that large scale batteries use rare materials that are enviromentally unfriendly to mine and refine.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Sloganeering snipped.

       For a detailed assessment of the multiple issues about nuclear power in California, see:

       Nuclear Power in California : 2007 Status Report, prepared by MRW & Associates, Inc., for the California Energy Commission.

       Abstract

       This consultant report examines how nuclear power issues have evolved since publication of the consultant report, Nuclear Power in California: Status Report, which was prepared for the 2005 Integrated Energy Policy Report (2005 IEPR). The report focuses on four broad subject areas: 1) nuclear waste issues, 2) costs of nuclear power, 3) environmental and societal impacts of nuclear power, and 4) nuclear power in the United States in the coming years. Nuclear waste issues include the status of a federal repository at Yucca Mountain, the proposed federal reprocessing program, and issues related to the transportation of nuclear waste. The costs of nuclear power are addressed from three angles: the costs of operating California’s current nuclear power plants, the costs of building and operating new nuclear power plants, and the cost implications of a “nuclear renaissance.” Environmental and societal impacts discussed include the environmental implications of nuclear power, the role of nuclear power in climate change policy, and the security implications of nuclear power generation. Finally, the future of nuclear power is addressed by considering the safety and reliability of the aging U.S. nuclear fleet, license extensions that could keep the current fleet operating for an additional 20 years, and the development of new nuclear power plants in the United States. The report concludes by offering potential implications for California from these events.  

20681. Doug_C at 05:00 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Responding to Wake-

       "This is not a case of whether the climate has been getting warmer. Why would you put it in such a manner?"

       Because the overall global climatic system is in a widely recognized transition to a much warmer state. And at a rate that is comparable to earlier highly likely carbon dioxide forced warming events such as the Permain Extinction that resulted in the dying off of a majority of species then on the planet.

       https://skepticalscience.com/Lee-commentary-on-Burgess-et-al-PNAS-Permian-Dating.html

       There's very little doubt that carbon dioxide does in fact play a central role in the moderation of the radiative balance of the Earth's atmosphere, this is based on science going back several centuries. We now understand this effect in the quantum dynamic properties of both the cardon dioxide molecule and the photons emitted by the Earth's surface which because of the vast temperature difference are of a much shorter wavelength than the photons that arrive from the sun. Carbon dioxde does not readily absorb incoming solar radiation means the bulk of it gets through the Earth's atmosphere. The much longer wavelength photons emitted by the Earth's surface are right in the strong absorption band of carbon dioxide meaning progressively more and more of the outgoing radiation that otherwise would have directly transited back into space is absorbed and promptly re-emitted by the carbon dioxde in the atmosphere. This is a stochastic process meaning that when these photons are re-emitted many of them instead of transiting into space are sent back to the Earth's surface. This is readily seen in the increase of radiation detected on the Earth's surface in the absorption band of carbon dioxde.

       And this is a much more powerful radiative forcing the the realtively tiny forcings that come from something like the Milankovitch Cycles which depend on 1/10s of a watt per meter^2 forcing applied over thousands of years to cause significant climate change. The direct feedback of carbon dioxde in the atmosphere does much of the actual work in driving global average temperature down in a cooling cycle and up in a warming. Carbon dioxide also plays a central role in the Milankovitch Cycles, initial slight warming or cooling events are amplified by feedback in the carbon cycle, more uptake of carbon into cooling oceans and freezing terrestrial reservoirs results in much greater cooling and a large release of carbon dioxide from warming oceans and melting land surfaces in a warming phase provides the kick to take the Earth out of glacial periods.

       I think the evidence is more than clear that carbon dioxide plays a central role in moderating the Earth's radiative balance which determines climate and that our species has significantly alterted the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxde to levels not seen for millions of years. And at a rate far faster than natural mechanisms can compensate for. Meaning that much of this additional human emitted carbon dioxde has remained in the atmosphre where it creates a constantly positive forcing steadily warming the Earth and goes into the oceans where is has significantly raised acidity.

       If someone is intentionally engaging in denial of almost all the evidence - almost all peer reviewed science in this field is in support of human forced cliamte change- then we don't need to describe them as deniers, their actions do.

       It's stating what almost certainly is a fact, just as many of us do when we communicate the vast amount of evidence that indicates that carbon dioxide is a key player in moderating the Earth's average surface temperature which determines climate and that the results in the past of doing this very thing have been catastrophic. In the case of the Permian Extinction it killed most life then on the planet.

       And recent research is putting what we're doing now with massive carbon dioxide emissions on the same scale as events like the Great Dying.

20682. John Hartz at 04:16 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       Wake: Recommended reading...

       Climate Deniers, You're Climate Deniers--Deal with It

       The Freuds wrote the playbook, and you're following it to the letter

       Opinion by Peter Dykstra, Scientific American, Mar 7, 2017

20683. Wake at 03:57 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       This is not a case of whether the climate has been getting warmer. Why would you put it in such a manner?

       Climate is nothing more than a long term averaging of weather patterns and it has obviously gotten warmer since the Maunder Minimum and then the Dalton Minimum.

       The questions lie in whether CO2 has any connections to this and whether this has anything other than a passing relationship with man.

       If you observe earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_Evidence/ you will see that the Milankovitch Cycles suggest that we should be in a warmer part of their cycles. This suggests that we are having more solar energy being injected into the northern hemisphere at this time. And land area reacts differently with this energy than oceans do.

       So whether man has anything to do with the warming climate is what the question is and that is not answered. Calling those who suggest this "deniers" in the same sort of personal insults that the "deniers" are forbidden to do on this site.

20684. Doug_C at 03:27 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       There are so many alternatives to fossil fuels that if implemented on a SYSTEMIC level would soon crowd fossil fuels right out of the market.

       As is detailed above, the only way that the fossil fuel sector survives at all is by creating not just a virtual monopoly for its products in the marketplace, but by attempting to do the same at an academic level.

       So instead of coordinated programs to introduce much less carbon intensive means of producing and using energy we're still stuck burning billions of tons of coal, oil and gas each year.

       Here's just a few alternatives that could be actively developed and introduced on a large scale right now to totally replace fossil fuels.

       - Solar power, this can be implemented on both the small and large scale, with large solar electrical generation plants and panels that can be placed on homes.

       - Wind power, ready to be implemented on a large scale.

       - Biomass.

       - Tidal, obviously you need a coast and good tidal effect.

       - Nuclear,  50 years ago Alvin Weinberg and his team at ORNL developed a safe and highly efficient nuclear power reactor that operates on transmuted thorium, isn't under pressure and can't melt down, it's a molten salt design. This avoids much of the nuclear proliferation issue, waste problem and disaster potential.

       - Catalytic processes like thermal depolymerization that can take long chain carbon molecules and turn them into the kind of light crude that nature creates in millions of year in a matter of hours. We don't need to totally phase out hydrocarbon fuels, just stop extracting them from fossil reserves.

       We can also change how we build most of society including how cities are structured and more. Our world right now is built around the long ago disproved hypothesis of "cheap" power from fossil fuels. It's not cheap if it costs us everything.

       How is any of that going to happen if the people entrusted to provide the knowledge of how to do all this at a systemic level are effectively working for a sector that only exist by externalizing massive costs constantly.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] "All-caps" constitute shouting and are prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. You may emphasize a word or words by bolding the font.

20685. Rob Honeycutt at 03:14 AM on 16 March 2017
       As EPA head, Scott Pruitt must act on climate change
       

       Wake... Straw man argument. No one says CO2 is "poisoning" the atmosphere.

20686. Wake at 02:48 AM on 16 March 2017
       As EPA head, Scott Pruitt must act on climate change
       

       nigel - what have you personally done due to CO2 poisoning of the atmosphere? All over this site what I have seen is that the only science that is the "right" science, is that which proclaims AGW. And that anyone else is a "denialist". While warning anyone like me who questions such a position the moderator seems to have to problem with insults such as that.

       I have stated elsewhere that I have calculated the amount of CO2 necessary to cause the increases in CO2 that have occurred since 1960. Dr. Crisp has calculated the amount of CO2 generated from man's use of fossil fuel and the use of CO2 outgasing sources such as cement. Our numbers come out very close. This would indicate that man generated every bit of CO2 that caused the rise since 1960.

       The problem with this position is that the rise in CO2 was linear and the use of fossil fuels and cement etc. has been logarithymic.

       This also denies the huge increases of CO2 from outgasing of oceans from the increases in MGT which has been measured in Alaska at the very least.

       Exactly how can the science be undeniable with huge gaps between the modeling and reality?

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Ad hominem. sloganeering, and moderation complaint snipped. 

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

20687. Rob Honeycutt at 02:45 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Wake... Your post above has a staggering number of errors. Yes, geothermal and biomass are considered to be renewables. In every single report you see anywhere, this will be the consistent case. No, 99% of corn is not used for ethanol and biomass. About 45% is used as feedstock and about 15% is used as food. No damns in CA almost "fell down." The Oroville spillway had some issues this year due to heavy rains because it was (by design) no capped in concrete, which in hindsight was clearly a mistake. No, none of the data in the chart you present includes imported power.

       With regards to your PG&E utility bill (Pacific Gas and Electric), I also live in the Bay Area. I think you'll want to go take a look at your past year of bills. Unless you live in an unusually large home (not many of those in SF) your PG&E is not likely $200 every month of the year. Look at your monthly usage and see if you're going over the tiered usage levels. If you're pushing into the third tier, yup, you're going to see $200 bills. You need to look at how you're using energy in your home. Chances are you could save yourself several hundred dollars per year with some very very simple changes. You can also call PG&E and ask them how you can get your monthly bill down. They'll have many suggestions.

       No, virtually all solar companies in the US have not bit the dust. Some did, for sure. You might want to look back in history to see how many early oil companies went out of business between, say, 1850 to 1900. JD Rockefeller was quite adept at killing off his many competitors. There are lots of very strong and growing solar companies in the US. In fact, solar installations are growing fast and job growth in that sector is faster than almost any other industry in the US. 

       If you don't want to take the risk of purchasing solar panels for the reasons you stated (clouds, shorter lifetime, etc) then just call up SolarCity. They do leasing programs that guarantee you a fixed energy bill. They take on the responsibilities and risks relative to the technology. They do the installation. They replace the panels if they get old and inefficient. You just pay a fixed monthly bill that is usually less than what you're already paying for your electricity.

20688. Doug_C at 02:44 AM on 16 March 2017
       Ben Santer on Seth Meyer’s Late Show – How Climate Deniers Lie
       

       The only way that climate change denial works is to take isolated data and distort, when we look at the overall picture there is no reasonable doubt that the global climate is in transition to a warmer state.

        

       - This includes significant and continuing loss in the cryosphere.

       - Year after year of record global average temperatures.

       - Changes in the timing of the seasons.

       - Increases in extreme weather events especially extreme heat waves that have become much more frequent.

       - Rises in sea level from thermal expansion and melt water from glaciers and polar ice sheets.

       and more...

       The uncertainty in data in any limited area of climate study is smoothed out when placed in an overall context and that includes satellite data. Science doesn't just look at that or depend on models or just look at the temperature record, it looks at all the evidence and it all points with a very high degree of certainty at a steady warming of the Earth as we add progressively larger amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Which is backed up by the basic physics, carbon dioxde absorbes photons in the range emitted by the Earth's surface but not in the range of incoming solar radiation. It's like we're building an ever larger dam to trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, just look at the Hiroshima "clock" steadily ticking here, the heat equivalnet from over 2.4 BILLION Hiroshima sized nuclear weapons has been added to the global climate since 1998.

       Deniers are clowns who are skilled at entertainment and distraction, scientists are sober researchers and teachers. We all have a choice whether we want to continue to be entertained and face impacts that will eventually include the kind of collapses seen in the past by earlier migration of global climate much faster than most species can follow as has been detailed here.

       https://skepticalscience.com/Lee-commentary-on-Burgess-et-al-PNAS-Permian-Dating.html

       There's growing evidence that wer're recreating events like the Permian Extinction, there will be no one left to buy the lies from people like Ted Cruz if we keep letting people like him set policy.

20689. Wake at 02:13 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Tom Curtis - I have something of a problem with your figures. If you look at http://www.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html carefully you see that some things don't jib.

       Firstly - geothermal and biomass aren't really "renewables". Geothermal sources are extremely rare in the USA and most other places as well. And they are of questionable "reliability". And the only reason that biomass is used for energy is because this would normally be littering and fertilizing the area from where it is collected. Whether or not this is a good idea is under question. Are you aware that of the millions of acres of corn being grown, only 1% of it is for food? The rest is for production of ethane and biomass. Does that strike you are a good idea? This isn't something I would call a proven technology.

       Also they are including "small hydro" in "renewables" column. A dam is a dam. We just had a couple of these poorly designed dams come near to failing in several places in California this rainy season (My God, these record rains haven't been like this for 20 years!) and the damage that was caused by this far exceeds the energy they have produced. Even locally here we have a couple of reservoirs fed by creeks and streams and they are largely earthen works that could quite easily fail. And of course there are thousands of homes in the path of such a failure.

       Also you can see that a large amount of the wind and solar power is imported from out of state. (So is the fossil derived energy but that isn't under question.)

       The sorts of numbers just keep showing that they are designed almost entirely to meet the "renewable energy" standards and not reality. i really question geothermal generation providing more energy than the staggeringly huge, large scale hydroelectric power in California. And to my mind the only reason that they did not include the large scale hydroelectric power sources in the renewable energy column is because they are trying to force other energy souces on us.

       I don't know about where you live, but I live in the San Francisco bay area. The weather here is one of the most moderate anywhere. I do not have nor need air conditioning. I go to bed at 9 pm so my use of electricity and gas is very light. And yet because of these demands for energy, I'm paying $200/mth for power. And other utility rates are equally preposterous. Fully an eigth of my social security goes to paying for services that I must pay for. The same services that 30 years ago would have hardly been noticeable. My friend has moved from here to Pheonix and tells me that his power rates are higher still with these same sorts of demands from the US government though everything else is half the costs as California.

       While I can't find where I took the numbers of 19% max and 3% for 2015, I did not pull those out of the air. It might have come from the stock brochure from my 401 plan. If solar power were so great why have virtually all American solar companies bit the dust? I went to a show and talked directly to the engineers and the word I got from them was completely different from the ones that were in all of the present advertisements. They told me that the useable lifetimes were HALF of what was stated. That the outputs were so dependent upon no cloud cover and no dust on the covers that you could lose almost all output quite easily. Since I'm an EE they weren't BS'ing me to put their own companies out of business, but to make me aware of how to design with their products. Tipping the cells 10 degrees on a roof installation could make it almost totally ineffective over half of the 5 hour day that solar cells produce.

       In any case I think that something is extremely odd about the amount of renewable energy being claimed.

20690. Rob Honeycutt at 02:03 AM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       chriskoz @13... I agree, that's why I qualified it as "a peculiar brand" of sociopathy and avoided directly calling him "a sociopath." I don't think I have the toolbox available to make a definitive statement one way or the other. Rather, I would suggest he exhibits some behaviors that lean that direction. 

       I would add, though, I don't think sociopathy rules out a capacity to be socially adepts where required. Many CEO's are very sociopathic and they absolutely must have a capacity to navigate social situations in order to succeed. 

20691. michael sweet at 01:53 AM on 16 March 2017
       Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid
       

       I am also not convinced by all of Jacobson's assumptions.  However, he finds that there are many other options that would work.  He only has space to talk about the scheme he thinks is best.  SInce he counts no load shifting from current use, any load shifting scheme would make it a lot easier to generate the power needed.  If electricity was cheaper during the day many users would switch to charging then.  People charge at night now because coal and nuclear cannot shut down.  In 20 years I expect charging stations at parking lots to be common.  Current load shifting schemes (like pumped hydro discussed on another thread) would obviously switch to generating whenever power is most expensive.

       I think Jacobson's conservative assumptions about load shifting will more than compensate for his options that I do not like.

20692. michael sweet at 01:38 AM on 16 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Tom,

       Lake Oroville, the largest reservoir in California, does have a pumped hydro facility attached to it.  It currently stores excess electricity generated by nuclear and coal power stations, which cannot shut down at night.  It could obviously be used to store excess WWS.  It would probably be cheap to expand the maximum power the pumped hydro could generate to support windless nights, although it would be difficult to expand the total amount of energy stored.

20693. Jim Hunt at 00:24 AM on 16 March 2017
       Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid
       

       Michael - There are certainly "barriers to using home (and/or EV) batteries to distribute power to the grid" here in the UK. Not least of which are the regulations. Amongst other things electricity markets need to be redesigned so that a "prosumer" or EV fleet owner can earn an honest crust from allowing their batteries to be used to support the local distribution grid when needed:

       http://www.V2G.co.uk/2015/07/european-commission-proposes-the-redesign-of-european-electricity-markets/

       Personally I'm not entirely convinced by some of the assumptions Jacobson et al. make about the "final grid" in their papers.

20694. sauerj at 00:13 AM on 16 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       Yes, nearly all of Scott Adams points are misinformed or flat-out wrong. And, as for his general state of mind, his past explanations of why Trump is "persuasive" (see YT) does not, in the least, resonant w/ me. I don't get his logic whatsoever (so I think his reasoning skills are 'in question').

       But, there is a very small piece of what Adams is saying that has a thin veneer of truth to it, and I think we should step back and consider this point. I might get slammed on this point. Here it is: I think, in many cases (though not always), that scientists explain the science in a way that is a bit obtuse, in a way that simply doesn't register to the average person, it doesn't speak in a language that "means" anything to them.

       Here are a couple examples: 1) a recent article (HERE) put the heat imbalance in terms of zeta-joules (yes, it explained that's 10^21 joules, even saying that's 10 with 21 zeros after it), but that still doesn't really mean anything to people. Yes, it's a big number; but it still doesn't speak in ways that people can relate to. The author probably thought this was an effective way to get the point across, sorry, not so! It's still just a big black box of numbers to the average person.

       Another example: 2) When James Hansen & many others talk about the heat imbalance, they will say things like, it's 1watt/m^2 (Storms book). And, then they will step back like that means something to people. Sorry, not so. It's like they just said something in greek.

       This is partly why ridiculous gimmicks like James Inhofe's snowball is so effective. It speaks on the level where the average person is at. And, when you compare that to complicated charts that explain the heat imbalance or else charts that dissect the details of the satellite surface temperature data or an array of model predictions, people just tune out. The silly but direct Inhofe presentation wins the day for the average person. ... Unfortunately, we have to cross this chasm (& I think we can) if we want to build political will that truly gets us where we need to be, transition to a sustainable economy. 

       It is hard to dumb-down the science so that it talks in the same language as the average person but I do believe it is possible. You just have to re-think your presentation into a way that talks in a language that they can relate to. And you have to do it in a way that is very respectful (genuinely so), and not in overly "alarmist" terms either (let the alarm bells go off in their own minds).

       I have done something like this, and have personally voiced this to the engineers that I work with. Prior to my explanations to these technically savvy people, they had not spent any quality time delving into the science mainly because it hadn't grabbed their attention (well, enough for them to fret out the right from the wrong). And, they were like Adams, full of lots of right & wrong misinformation, but none of the truth potent enough to lure them into digging deeper. We have to grab their attention in a way that is both truthful but instantly talks their language & instantly gets past the murkiness of the darts of confusion that compete with the truth.

       True, these engineers, that I have spoken to, speak in a "technical language" so my 'new language' speaks in their 'engineer' language, but I have given this same explanation to a few non-engineers, and it seemed to be moderately persusaive too (jury still out though). After hearing my spiel, many of these people have expressed a new & clearer understanding of the science with this sort of explanation; and I think it genuinely broke thru the web of misinformation that blocks truth from coming in, and peaked their possible acceptance of the truth (of the body of science) so to get them to genuinely to think twice on the matter.

       Yes, this message/style is dumbed down, but it is still truthful. It works because it puts what's going on into terms that the average people can relate to. And, that maybe is the worthy take-away here from Adams' implicit (if only unconscious) points buried behind his words. I think, in one small way, if the presentation was put in this way, that then even folks like Adams might (that's a big might) not get so confused & tripped-up on other misinformation that clouds their understanding.

       HERE is link to my recent written down point-by-point summary on how I try to "get the point across" in the most persuasive means possible. I am in the process of massing publishing this out to local & state community and policital leaders with the hope of building political will (pending local CCL chapter approval).

20695. pattimer at 23:37 PM on 15 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       A great post describing Adams' superficial glimpse at climate science

20696. SirCharles at 22:43 PM on 15 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       This video from the National Academies shoudn't overstretch Scott's grasp:

20697. Tom Curtis at 22:07 PM on 15 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       michael sweet @9, in principle I agree.  Wake's argument, however, was about non-dispachable power sources, specifically solar and wind.  As big hydro counts as dispachable power, in this context it was appropriate to exclude it.  Having said that, big hydro, if set up for pumped storage, is the most economical way to make maximum use of excess production from "non-dispachable" sources, so California's abundance of hydro is also relevant there.

20698. michael sweet at 21:50 PM on 15 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       Tom,

       I think you should include big hydro in the renewable mix.  It is renewable energy.  Say  30% small renewable and 11% hydro for a total of 41%.  

       Duing the time period you provided data for they were having a severe drought (the worst in over 1,000 years) in California which would reduce hydro power.  This year (2017) they have flooded so they will get a lot more from hydro.  Total this year is looking like at least 50% (my estimate) from renewable energy.  Hardly insignificant as Wake claims.

       They have been seriously building out renewable energy for less than 10 years.  Wake imagines that they should build out 100% capacity in a single year.

       As an aside, scientists predict climate change will result in more drought and more flooding.  It may be a coincidence but it is exactly what was predicted.

20699. chriskoz at 19:54 PM on 15 March 2017
       A Perfect (Twitter) Storm
       

       nigelj@14,

       With that explanation you opinion makes sense now, thanks. Especially putting "the entire planet in a laboratory" is what is unique about CS as the domain. At the ultimate level, it is about models like GCMs and you need lot of computer power to run GCMs and people just can't understand all details and, if they are conspiracy theorists, they start inventing their own theories based on their preconceptions rather on evidence and denialosphere is born. But even if you're a dummy, you can still e.g. listgen to e.g. the ecxellent TED talk by Gavin, where he very casually explains the inner workings of GCMs in very digestable terms.

       Further, I think other domains of research are both newer than CS and deal with equally complex systems. Take the science behind autonomous driving: the machine learning, and especially convolutional neural networks. Enormous amout of computer power is involved here and hardly anyone understands e.g. the processes of deep learning by CNNs. Yet no one questions the AI the way the deniers of AGW question CS. Maybe it's political as you're saying because there are no political reasons to deny that authonomous car is possible.

20700. Tom Curtis at 17:19 PM on 15 March 2017
       The fossil fuel industry's invisible colonization of academia
       

       And just in case Wake claims he was talking about the company only, in 2013 PG&E generated 6% of its power from wind, and 5% from solar, with a total of 22% from renewables overall (excluding large hydro):

       

       In 2014, those figures rose to 7, 9 and 27% respectively.  In 2015, the total renewable (excluding large hydro) and risen to 30%, though I cannot find a breakdown of the individual components.

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