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Comments 20951 to 21000:

20951. tmketner at 13:32 PM on 28 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Please address the following molecular make up of CO2.

       • CO2 is not an upper atmosphere gas. It is the heaviest of the primary atmospheric gases.

       Easy Analogy: Everyone knows the higher you go on a mountain, the harder it is to breathe oxygen. The CO2 molecule is 30% heavier than O2 (oxygen molecules), meaning it stays closer to the earth’s surface. Ever wonder why a tree line pretty much stays the same? It is because there is not enough CO2 to sustain that type of plant life that high.

       • CO2 is the scarcest of the primary gases. For every 3000 molecules that make up our "air" (Nitrogen, Oxygen, Argon, [CO2, Methane, Rare (inert) gases], there is one CO2 molecule.

       http://butane.chem.uiuc.edu/pshapley/GenChem1/L9/web-L9.pdf

       • Scientist have proven when the earth has heated up over the thousands of years of ice core history, that CO2 levels are higher. This proves CO2 causes global warming. WRONG! CO2 is the most easily absorbed of the primary gases that make up our atmosphere.

       Fact: CO2 absorbs in earth, rocks, water, and guess what, ice. As the earth heats up, water evaporates, ice melts, the CO2 trapped in all of these things, is released. It is an effect, not the cause. It is so easily absorbed in water, when it rains; it literally flushes excess CO2 out of the atmosphere, and traps it in soil, lakes, ice, etc.

       Ever hear of a lake “rolling over”, and releasing the CO2 trapped in it? The CO2 kills everything within miles close to the ground. It does not dissipate into the upper atmosphere.

       Here is an easy experiment, which can done at home. Open two cans of soda, put one on the counter at room temperature, and put the other in the refrigerator. After a couple of hours, pour each one into a separate glass. It is obvious from the carbonation remaining in the cans that CO2 releases much faster from the warmer can.

20952. chriskoz at 12:44 PM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       As years go by, science deniers in US are finding support of their actions increasingly difficult. Famous Oregon Petition had over 31000 signers, among them 9000+ signers with PhD. Further:

       a random sample "of 30 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to hold a Ph.D. in a climate-related science."

       Which is coincidentally (or maybe not) in line with 97% climate science concensus.

       The nonsense herein (as opposed to this Oregon nonsense from 20y ago) can claim only 300 bogus scientists, lots of them exotic internationals. And not a single of them has been found to have any climate science credentials, except the lead perpetrator Dick Lindzen, a well known man who's been on the dark side for many decades, a lost soul.

20953. chriskoz at 12:13 PM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       In Australia, the term "General Practitioners" is the same as "Physicians" or "Family Physicians" in US.

       "Fellow of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners" is equivalent to AAFP in US.

       So, to conclude about the credentials of dr Weston, FRACGP that John has started but did not have patience to finish: Weston a medical familly practitioner who clearly has nothing to do with climate science, who as private citizen denies climate science by signing such bogus petition.

       The morons who push forward such nonsense should be punished by forcibly hiring climate scientists to perform urgent surgery on them (or better analogy on their children). Maybe you find among them a person as dishonest as dr Weston, who would perform the butchery, but all climate scientists that I know would, unlike dr Weston, say "thank you I'm not qualified for this job".

20954. Bob Loblaw at 11:09 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       ...and, whenever these sorts of lists of names comes up, I am reminded of Project Steve. How many Steves does Lindzen have on his list? Project Steve has 1409 as of February 13, 2017.

       Granted, Project Steve was set up to counteract "Creation Science", but it's fun to think how many Steves we could get to sign a petition supporting the IPCC. (No, we won't - as Project Steve says in its FAQ, it's only fun once.)

20955. Tom Curtis at 11:04 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       Just FYI, a search of the document shows, 156 PhDs, 38 MScs, 34 BScs, 1 BAppSc, 9 MAs, 1 BA, 7 MDs, 2 Diplomas, and 32 with no qualifications to speak of.  That is taking the highest qualification in each case.  There are 27 with sundry qualifications not included in the search.  I do not guaranttee those figures, but they should be in the right ball park.  In all, that means roughly 50% are significantly qualified, about 66% have qualifications in science, and about 10% have no qualifications of any significance at all.

       Given the breadth with which Lindzen has cast his net, this petition has a larger denominator as the Oregon Petition.  In effect, Lindzen's letter is an admission that he could only get 300 out of 28 million potential candidates to sign to actually sign up. 

20956. MA Rodger at 10:44 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       The 309 people Lindzen lists out he describes as “eminent scientists and other qualified individuals from around the world.” In saying this he doesn't claim that they are in any way either scientists expert in climatology or individuals qualified in climatology.
       He later calls them his “fellow scientists” but this may refer only to those who are scientists and not the full 309.
       But where Lindzen does exaggerate the qualifications of these 309 (as well as perhaps himself) is in describing “the signers of the letter” as having “the training needed to evaluate climate facts, and offer sound advice.” While the OP shows many of these 309 are not acknowledged experts in “climate facts,” there are also many who have set out their interpretation of the “climate facts” (as has Lindzen) and what is most noticable is that these interpretations do not agree on those “climate facts.” Rather, these interpretations are best characterised as presenting contradictory “climate facts.” The one thing on which "the signers" agree is in always espousing a do-nothing aproach to AGW, but always for fundamentally different scientific reasons.

       The Lindzen 310 is thus scientifically a profoundly dodgy bunch. And that is before they present fake science by together asserting that “carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. On the contrary, there is clear evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful to food crops and other plants that nourish all life. It is plant food, not a poison.”

20957. nigelj at 10:18 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       The poll of 300 people is clearly weak, but like other polls and campaigns of denial it all adds up, and wears people down.  Unfortunately many people don't have time to research what the poll really means, or who it includes, and these are the targets of the so called poll..

       Scientists and open minded, reasonable people are going to have to fight back hard. I hate that science is getting tied up with politics, but there's no denying this has happened, so responses have to be commensurate with this unfortunate fact.

       It's all part of the Trump attack on climate science. The latest Trump news has him wanting to increase military spending by 9%, which is pretty substantial, especially in a country already having a massive military.

       And guess what Trump wants to cut to pay for the military spending? Spending on "Federal Agencies" like the EPA.

       www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/27/trumps-budget-54-billion-increase-defense-spending

       And thank's for the link on the various consensus studies, and the history of climate sceptical research, and how it has been utterly and comprehensively  refuted in the published literature. But listening to the denialist liars, you would think none of this has happened.

20958. James Owens at 10:16 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       The letter is posted at https://cloudup.com/iHcBpTDmCNu and can be downloaded as a pdf.  The signers are there - the qualifications to comment on climate science remain another matter.

20959. nigelj at 09:39 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       Paul D @3, the following article is good commentary on the psychology of lies, and how we respond when people like Trump repeatedly make (false) accusations against all sorts of people.

       www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/donald-trump-lies-liar-effect-brain-214658

       One quote: "When we are overwhelmed with false, or potentially false, statements, our brains pretty quickly become so overworked that we stop trying to sift through everything."

20960. scaddenp at 08:39 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       My favorite is McLean.

       "Leading reviewer of WG 1 component of IPCC 5AR. Leading reviewer of WG I component of IPCC 5AR" .

       I say it twice so it much be true?? And just what is Leading reviewer you might ask? Reviewers are self-selecting. You can see some of McLean's comment here   Note how helpful the editors found them?

       Letter pitched at those ignorant of IPCC review process. There are some amazing illiterate entries there as well as some funny attempts at CV polishing.

20961. Paul D at 08:18 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       I'm reading 'It Can't Happen Here'.

       Where is Doremus Jessop when you need him?

       Sorry, but climate science is just one factor of the total Trump package.
       Basic idea behind Trump is that you attack intellectuals, say the media are all liars that are against the people and the courts are against the 'people'.

       The only thing Trump doesn't have is his own private militia, which is probably the only thing that is stopping him from becoming a real dictator.

       The petition mentioned isn't exactly anything new, we have seen worse in the past, it is effectively fabricated propaganda to prop up Trumps campaign against spending on climate science and the EPA.

20962. Tom Curtis at 07:56 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       For contrast, there also exists a petition signed by "...more than 800 Earth science and energy experts in 46 states".  In contrast to the Lindzen petition,

       "All signatories are pursuing or hold a PhD in relevant disciplines, with a few exceptions for other leaders in the field. All are either American or work in the United States."

       That petition is therefore, signed significantly more scientists, signed only be scientists who are citizens or residents, signed only be scientists with recognizable qualifications, and signed only by scientists who work in the field.  In contrast, the Lindzen petition has had to pad numbers by relaxing all of these standards.

       More importantly, there is an accompanying petition for those who do not meet those standards, which I strongly recommend you sign if you are a citizen or resident of the United States.  Currently it has over 150,000 signatories.

        

20963. ubrew12 at 06:43 AM on 28 February 2017
       Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?
       

       WUWT has the letter and the list.  WUWT says 'The petition contains the names of around 300 eminent scientists and other qualified individuals, including physicists, engineers, former Astronauts, meteorologists ... computer modelling specialists, and many more. It is a long list.'  

       I got a kick out of the emphatic: 'It is a long list'.  But I also appreciated that among the 19 professions identified, none was 'climate scientist'.  I guess they didn't want to get sued.

       Also, as an American, we get a little rowdy over here when experts from Australia, New Zealand, Europe and Latin America tell our President what to do.  We like to think we have enough experts right here to handle our own affairs.  It's says a lot that Dr Lindzen couldn't locate more of them to pad his list.  

20964. nigelj at 05:43 AM on 28 February 2017
       Trump can save his presidency with a great deal to save the climate
       

       Just adding to the interesting article posted by TC, this article gives an excellent analysis of what motivates Trump, how he sells himself, and further insight on how he got elected. 

       www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11808168

       The article presents Trump as a showman, with everything focussed on Trump and finishes by saying:

       "But neither at his (Trumps) campaign rallies nor in the opening weeks of his presidency has he challenged the crowds' thinking. The Trump Show is, as ever, a spectacle, a cavalcade of provocations. It is designed not to prompt thought or even to persuade, but to sell tickets to the next performance."

20965. Tom Curtis at 02:26 AM on 28 February 2017
       Trump can save his presidency with a great deal to save the climate
       

       A must read for understanding how Trump got elected, and how democracy is being hijacked:

       https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/robert-mercer-breitbart-war-on-media-steve-bannon-donald-trump-nigel-farage?CMP=share_btn_fb

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] More particulars on the article linked to above.

       Robert Mercer: the big data billionaire waging war on mainstream media 

       With links to Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Nigel Farage, the rightwing US computer scientist is at the heart of a multimillion-dollar propaganda network

       by Carole Cadwalladr, Guardian, Feb 26, 2017

20966. MA Rodger at 21:39 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop @various.

       May I offer firstly a question, secondly a prediction, thirdly some advice and fourthy why none of this is actually relevant to reality as we know it.

       Firstly, a question at the most basic level. What is it you want here? It is not at all clear what that is. You have a grand theory. You tell us @249 that your grand theory has been sent off, submitted for publication 'Feb 21, 2016' which is before your first comment here. So why do you then add @249 “I am also ready for talks”? Your theory has been sent off for publication. Surely that is end of story.
       (Of course, there has been since submission the small but significant amendment to your theory resulting from input from Tom Curtis replying to your initial comment here @SkS on a different thread.  You will of course be submitting a corrected paper to the publishers, complete with proper acknowledgement for the correction.)
       But if your theory has been sent off, why would you be “told by a scientist at Oak Ridge Laboratories to find answers to (your) questions on the effects of CO2 on heating the climate, to come to this site (ie SkS).”? What specific questions are you asking?
       I look back at your initial comments here @SkS and I see no questions whatever! So what actually is it you want here?

       Secondly, the chances are that your grand work will not be entered into the publications submission process but will be rejected at the first hurdle. But let us imagine that it is seriously considered for publication and is successful. Let us imagine it is published. What then?
       There are scientists who regularly publised in the scientific press, scientists who are also misguided fools and just like you write up nonsense on subjects outside their competence. Being published scientists they do on occasion get published. It is not so difficult, especially if you chose your publication. As an example of such obvious nonsense consider Hermann Harde who is presently making a total twit of himself with his latest pack of twaddle - H. Harde (2017) 'Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere', Global and Planetary Change.
       This is not the first time Harde has published denialist rubbish. In 2014 he published something not dissimilar in its implications to your grand theory. This was Harde's grand version of the GH effect & CO2's imact on climate - H. Harde (2014) 'Advanced Two-Layer Climate Model for the Assessment of Global Warming by CO2', Open Journal of Atmospheric & Climate Change. And what happened? If you visit Google Scholar you will find the impact of Harde (2014) has been sweet fanny adams.-
       It has been cited by just five fellow-denialists in two years. Within proper science, Harde's nonsense does not even merit a serious rebutal.
       Now you may feel it would be incredibly wrong when, if your grand work did somehow get published, it were to be simply ignored. But it will be because you have so far failed to do a very essential piece of work. You have to show not just that your sums add up, not just that your sums are valid (which remains work-in-progress for you): you have to additionally set out the argument as to why the sums being used by everybody else I the whole wide world are flat wrong. If you cannot do that, you are on a hiding to nothing. Your grand theory will simply be ignored.
       And don't be surprised. Why should busy scientists have to spend time rebutting your nonsense. You have to convert your nonsense into compelling science. And the best of luck with that!!

       Thirdly, ad hominem is something you will have to rise above if you work in science. Do not ignore people because they call you a fool. Ignore them only if they have nothing sensible to say. You say you are a scientist so you should already know this. So why then all this pathetic bleating about ad hominem? (I ask in this manner as you evidently need a lot more practice in dealing with the sticks and stones of the scientific process.)

       And finally, why none of this matters a jot. Why isn't your grand theory worth a bean? It is because your grand theory rests entirely on the proposition that the GH-effect is additive. It is not additive. Do you not see all those non-linear equations you use? And on top of that there are a whole bunch of non-linear equations that you fail to use. You cannot just add them up and divide by the total to gain a CO2 contribution to the GH-effect.
       Certainly one area where your model departs into pure fantasy is the effect of CO2 at altitudes where H2O is largely absent. @238 your explanation is silly and non-quantative in nature. (Indeed as I set out @242, I conld not make head-nor-tail of what you were trying to describe with your “CO2 is more concentrated at higher altitudes” description.)
       In this regard, you have already dodged one piece of reality which was presented tp you @243. It is not the only fatal problem with your grand theory but I would suggest it is simpler to define than most. (Tom Curtis @281 calls this problem "very damning to your theory.") Here is the reality presented again.

       You need to explain to the big wide world why there is a stonking-great dip in the TOA upward LR. So far your grand theory flies in the face of the existence of that stonking-great dip. If you cannot explain it in terms of your grand theory, then your grand theory is dead.
       So, can you provide said explanation?

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Rudmop has unilaterally recused himself from posting on this website. 

20967. Tom Curtis at 21:22 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop @279, the lapse rate above the troposphere on Earth is almost entirely a function of radiative energy transfer, and hence of which gases absorb solar radiation at what altitude, and which gases absorb and emit IR radiation at what altitude.  It is something successfull predicted by the theory you reject as far back as 1967.  We await your equivalent prediction with bated breath.

       Of even more interest to me is when you use your theory to partition energy absorption by wavelength and predict the observed outgoing IR radiation spectrum thereby.  This was a test successfully past by the theory you reject in 1969.  This particular test should be very easy for you to impliment if there is any validity in your method.  Your failure to use your method to predict this observable (and observed) value in favour of predicting an unobservable value is very damning of your theory.

20968. Tom Curtis at 21:13 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop @278 now sets an acceptable standard for confirming his theory as being a 22.5% error in predicting the surface temperature of Venus.  In the meantime, he considers a less than 0.5% error in predicting the absolute global mean surface temperature of the Earth as an example of model failure:

       

20969. Tom Curtis at 20:45 PM on 27 February 2017
       Trump can save his presidency with a great deal to save the climate
       

       Digby Scorgie @10, while some parallels are noteworthy, the lack of a body equivalent to the Brown Shirts is significant.  Without such a body, Trump will not be able to follow the path of Hitler.  More importantly, it is not evident that he desires to.

       What is clear is that he has a deliberate rhetoric that is weakening confidence and respect for democratic institutions.  His demonization of the press seems an intentional policy to ensure that his followers do not believe any of the reported facts which show him in so poor a light.  That policy, if successful (and it is evidently partly successful already) raises grave concerns over what may happen if he should lose a second term, or be impeached.  His followers will view either, if not disillusioned by then, as unwarranted attempts to remove a President because his administration is "running like a well oiled machine" in pursuit policies they endorse.  They may view such outcomes as a failure of democracy, and therefore consider themselves no longer bound by democratic principles.

       Nor is the threat ony from Trump and his supporters.  Some of the reactions to Trump have been decidedly undemocratic, including the calls for his impeachment before he even took office (and hence before than can have been legal grounds for that impeachment), and the resort to, and glorification of violence (eg, "punch a nazi") by some are both concerning.  Most concerning in that regard is a recent suggestion I have seen that the torrent of leaks against Trump may be motivated by personal animus inspired by Trump's frequent derogatory comments about the intelligence community, and evident disrespect for it.  If they are inspired by animus rather than (as has also been suggested), genuine fears that Trump is a knowing Russian plant; then they amount to an attempted coup by the intelligence services against a lawfully elected President (even if those laws are a perversion of democracy).

20970. Rudmop at 17:56 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       The lapse rate on earth is not a function of carbon dioxide.

20971. Rudmop at 17:44 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       I did derive a surface temperature of Venus from the coefficient of heating for carbon dioxide that I determined using earth's values.  I got (.0007 deg/ppmvCO2 x 965000 ppmv) CO2 and got 676 deg above blackbody temp.  If you look up the black body temp of Venus it is -46.4 deg. C.  So the surface temp would be 630 degrees C.  According to Nasa it is 464 deg. C.  I am unaware of sloganeering. 

20972. Rudmop at 17:31 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       275 ad hominem Rob.  There is no benifit to have this in a scientific discussion; it comes across as an attempt at forcing a model that has failed on its predictions to fit in the true/true square of the truth table, when all along it was the false/true square. In the scientific truth table a true hypothesis will always give rise to a true prediction; whereas a false hypothesis may give rise to a true or false prediction.  It could also be that the evidence coming from the experiment may either be true or false.  In otherwords, you can get evidence that will seem to support your hypothesis, even though your hypothesis is wrong.  I think it is well established that we all have the same hypothesis; carbon dioxide traps in IR photons and sets a new equilibrium for the rate of incoming solar radiation and emitted blackbody radiation from the surface.  The disagreement is in the value for this equilbirium.  For the past half century, Scientists have performed simple enough experiments that measure the differences in radiance of peak IR absorption for CO2 at the surface and at TOA.  I think they forgot to include an effect similiar to compton scattering, only not with x-rays, rather with IR waves. Water molecules in the liquid state can absorb these rays.  The liquid surface can absorb rays reflected to it, and liquid in condensation nuclei of clouds can absorb rays passed through them.  Ignoring this feature can lead to the appearance that CO2 is trapping in more heat than it actually does.  Of course time holds the answer, securely locked away behind the wizzards curtain, in a time capsual box.  The box gets opened when predictions come true.  We have not melted the Arctic, we have not risen the seas, we have not caused California to stay in a drought, we have not been able to maintain an ever increasing pattern in the temperature anomaly.  There have been pauses and there is going to be a huge one this year.  It has already started.  So do observations support my results.  YES!  They even work well with Venus.  

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Excessive repitition and sloganeering snipped.

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

20973. Rudmop at 16:55 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       You forgot foraminiferal ooze to go along with the carbon sink sequestration, in your example of silicate rock weathering.  Venus has the advantage of the inverse square law; however, it also reflects more of the solar radiation incident upon it.    It also has a sulfur dioxide concentration of 150 ppmv.  Using the value I got for Carbon dioxide deg./ppmv on earth, based upon .28 deg/404 ppm and ignoring the other differences we would expect that CO2 alone on venus would contribute to a surface temperature of 669 deg C above its blackbody temperature of 226.6 K;  but it is only 510C.  So clearly, my estimation is not too high, if this is the route you want to take. I am within 76% agreement.  what is the agreement that the climate scientists have predicted the earth's temperature to rise for the corresponding rise in CO2? 

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] This is not "comparing with observations": it is dangerously close to sloganeering. What you have to do is you use your physical model and from it derive the say the surface temperature of venus; or the lapse rate on earth; or better still what the observable spectral signature of DLR or OLR would be under your model, and compare it what it observed. Do it for observations with different water vapour. Agreed that this is not suitable for a blog comment so do the math, put it up somewhere and post a link to it here.  (And as for forminiferal ooze please learn some basic chemistry though this is a common mistake)

20974. Digby Scorgie at 16:41 PM on 27 February 2017
       Trump can save his presidency with a great deal to save the climate
       

       John

       Having read the Salon piece, I can't help feeling that the Trump administration is acting in exactly the same way that Hitler and his cronies did to persuade and bully the German people to his worldview.  Or am I wrong about this parallel?

20975. Ogemaniac at 15:50 PM on 27 February 2017
       As EPA head, Scott Pruitt must act on climate change
       

       The LNT "myth" has not been debunked. It is certainly an area of legitimate scientific contention, however. I do not think it will have a significant impact on the public debate or nuclear plant costs in any case.

       http://jnm.snmjournals.org/content/58/1/7.short?rss=1

        

20976. Rob Honeycutt at 15:11 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       And honestly, if you didn't do this in the paper you've already submitted... I don't think you'll get past the waste paper basket at the front desk.

20977. Rob Honeycutt at 15:08 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Try this. Think of a specific observation that would demonstrate that CO2 has a tiny impact on global temperature, as you suggest.

       The rest of the scientific community has done this in spades over the past century. Exit from snowball earth events. Early faint sun paradox. Silicate rock weathering. Temperature excursions with the Siberian/Deccan traps. Etc.

       Or, alternatively, apply your theory to Venus. Tell us what your equations output for the surface temperature. 

20978. Rob Honeycutt at 15:01 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Sorry, bubba. You can't just claim reality is your observational evidence.

20979. Rudmop at 14:54 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Sorry, the other 99.13% is due to water vapor.  I'm out now. 

20980. Rudmop at 14:42 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rob Honeycutt, @268, 

       If you walk outside right before sunrise tomorrow, and you experience a temperature of -18 Celsius, then you will be able to tell me if my results explain my observations and yours.  On the other hand if you walk outside right before sunrise and the temperature is 32.8 degrees warmer than the blackbody average for your latitude, then my results will explain your observations.  0.87 percent of this temperature is due to the contribution that CO2 provides in trapping in surface heat.  The remaining 99.13 is due to carbon dioxide.  If you would like to factor in the ground level ozone, N2O5, CH4 then the values will change a bit.

20981. Rudmop at 14:32 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       It will also depend on the amount of IR energy absorbed by water vapor and Carbon Dioxide molecules.  These three ratios (concentration, diffusion rate, and IR absorption energy) are the meat and potatoes of my model.  

20982. Rudmop at 14:29 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Tom, I appologize for misreading your statement.  I see what you are saying now; thankyou for the clarification.  If we both agree on how heat is transferred by the greenhouse gas molecules in the atmoshpere, more than 100 meters above the surface, by first absorbing IR photons, and then transferring the energy via elastic collisions, then it should be evident that the number of collisions that can occur between water vapor and all other molecules and carbon dioxide and all there molecules will depend on concentraion and velocity.  This is an important part of my model. 

20983. Rob Honeycutt at 13:15 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop... I trust that you've gone through a large number of calculations to get to a result. That's not the question at hand. The question would be, do your results explain observations?

       If it doesn't, sorry. No Nobel Prize.

20984. Tom Curtis at 13:00 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop @255:

       "Tom Curtis in 253, mentions that there are 380,000 (millions) of collisions that an excited CO2 or H2O molecule will experience before it returns to it ground state energy level. This implies that there are millions of quantum transitions between excited state and ground state (which he incorrectly refers to as the base energy state);"

       No, I indicated that in the mean time to return to the ground state if there is no interference, around 380,000 collisions will have taken place, each of which has a significant probability of returning the molecule to the ground state with the excess energy either causing the other molecule (if of the same type) to enter an excited state, or more probably, with the excess energy being converted to kinetic energy.  At the same time, each of those collisions also has a low probability of causing a molecule in the ground state to enter an excited state.  The result is that radiation from the gas will be thermal radiation, ie, radiation described by Planck's Law.

       "... it leads one to wonder it he also is implying that in each collision, there is a high energy transformation between the excited molecule and one of the other 990,596 ppmv that are not greenhouse gases"

       You to wonder that, but there is not basis in what I said for that speculation.  There is a high probability in each collision that the energy of the excited state if retained to that point, will be transferred to kinetic energy.  But if transferred, the molecule is then in the ground state, and cannot transfer the energy a second time on subsequent collissions (as you are suggesting).

       "If this is indeed the implication, then it is a gross misrepresentation of the Kinetic Molecular theory, in which all collisions are elastic collisions. The first question that arises is, where the kinetic energy conservation?"

       The Kinetic Molecular Theory (or the Kinetic Theory of Gases), is an ideal theory known to be false in its assumptions.  In particular, of the assumptions (below), assumptions (1), (2), (4), and (5) are known to be false of real gases.  Unless you are prepared that all molecules are spherical in shape (assumption 1), that they are not subject to gravitational acceleration (assumption 2), that they are not subject to van der Waal's forces, or the strong and weak forces (assumption 4), you have no right to insist that assumption (5) obtains in actuallity, rather than in approximation.

       1. Gases are composed of a large number of particles that behave like hard, spherical objects in a state of constant, random motion.
       2. These particles move in a straight line until they collide with another particle or the walls of the container.
       3. These particles are much smaller than the distance between particles. Most of the volume of a gas is therefore empty space.
       4. There is no force of attraction between gas particles or between the particles and the walls of the container.
       5. Collisions between gas particles or collisions with the walls of the container are perfectly elastic. None of the energy of a gas particle is lost when it collides with another particle or with the walls of the container.
       6. The average kinetic energy of a collection of gas particles depends on the temperature of the gas and nothing else.

       Further, there is no theory of the conservation of kinetic energy.  There is a theory of the conservation of energy, but nothing I have said suggests it is violated (unlike your speculation). 

       What is worse for your argument is that you have already agreed that IR radiation captured by CO2 raises surface air temperatures, however minimally.  It follows that they increase the mean kinetic energy of the near surface atmosphere, ie, violate the non-existent law of conservation of kinetic energy.  It also means that they convert radiant energy to osciliatary (or rotational) energy, which is then converted to kinetic energy by collisions.  If there was any validity in your argument, it would refute your own theory.

       Your attempts to justify your theory in the face of criticism are becoming increasingly desperate and ridiculous.

20985. Rudmop at 12:47 PM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rob Honeycutt, in my percentage figures, that are based upon a questionable temperature anomaly, not my own value, but IPCC's value, I have supplied the elementary math.

       If you are referring to the value of .28 degrees that I arrived at, here is what I did.  I calculated the concentration ratio for CO2:H2O.  I used an average value of 404 ppmv for CO2 and a value of 8000ppmv for H2O. Both of these figures are very reasonable figures.  I am not going to do the gas law calculations to show how I arrived at such an agreeable figure for the average water vapor concentration. The math you are requesting is 404 ppmv CO2/8000 ppmv H2O Vapor and the answer is 0.051.  

       I used Grahams Law of Effusion to calculate the ratio for the diffusion rates of CO2:H2O vapor.  You can do this and you will get a ratio of 0.64 for the rate of diffusion of both gases.

       If you are looking for big calculus equations, perhaps you can apply an integral to the absorption spectra of carbon dioxide and water vapor to calculate the absorption energy of an excited molecule of carbon dioxide and an excited molecule of water vapor in superposition.  I took the integral for the wavelenght values 14.8 um to 15.2 um for carbon dioxides IR spectral absorption.  I also took the integral of its spectral absorption over the wavelengths from 4.3 um to 4.0 um.  Since water vapor will emit wavelenght in the range IR wavelength 2.4 to 3.0 um when it undergoes deposition and condensation respectively, I integrated the energy absorption for carbon dioxide at these wavelenghts.  For water vapor absorption energy, I integrated the energy absorption values for the wavelengths from 15um ot 27 um and 2.5 um to 3.4 um, noting that even though the blackbody radiation almost entirely excludes the wavelenghts 2.5um to 3.4 um, the fact that the exothermic phase changes of water during depostion and condensation will emit these wavelenghts. Finally I integrated the values for the IR absorption energy from wavelenghts 4.9 um to 8.0 um for water vapor.   Please not that I do multiply by a factor of .125 to the integration result from wavelengths in the 4um to the 7 um range because the blackbody emission of these wavelengths is so low.  The absorption energy ratio of CO2 to H2O is 0.27

       Multiplying all these coefficients together to determine the absolute coefficeint for the ratio of how many time CO2 can absorp and transfer heat as compared to water you get 0.0087.  Multiply this by the of the temperature above blackbody temperature that these gases maintain (32.8 deg. C), and you arrive at the answer of .29 degrees for carbon dioxide and  32.51 for water vapor. 

       I know this approach does not use differences in ground level radiance and TOA radiance for peak absorption wavelenghts of CO2.  It is my asserction that since liquid water can absorb at the 15 um wavelengths then some of these wavelengths will be blocked by water droplets on the surface of condensation nuclei in clouds.   There will be no way to determine what percentage of these waves are blocked by CO2 and water in the clouds.  

20986. michael sweet at 11:50 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Tom,

       Thank you for the information on Arhennius.  I now understand a little more about how he did his calculations.

20987. michael sweet at 11:44 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop,

       Tom's description of molecular collisions reads:

       "The notion that a CO2 molecule "... cannot hold on to any trapped energy for an indefinite amount of time", while accurate, is irrelevant. Even at 85 km altitude (US standard atmosphere), an excited CO2 (or H2O) molecule will, on average, experience 380,000 (a million) collisions before it would typically have spontaneiously returned to a base energy state by emitting a photon. Within the troposphere the figure is closer to 5 billion collisions. Therefore absorbed radiation is rapidly transmitted to the rest of the atmosphere as heat, and stored by the whole atmospheric layer. The emissions from that layer, in turn, are almost exclusively from CO2 (or other greenhouse gases) that have entered an excited state due to collissions from with other molecules. That is why the emission fits the profile of thermal radiation (within the radiating wavelengths). And because the radiation is thermal, it is controlled by the temperature of the layer, not the rate of absorption of photons from lower layers in the atmosphere."

       This means that if a CO2 molecule absorbs an IR photon of energy it takes some time before it emits that photon again.  Let us say it is a microsecond (you can Google the actual time).  In that time it will undergo a certain number of collisions.  Let us say it is 5 billion collisions (as per Tom Curtis' data above).  Since the IR energy can be dissipated by collisions with other molecules it is approximately 5 billion times more likely that the CO2 molecule spreads the IR energy around to other molecules through its collisions than that it re-emits another photon of energy.  No quantum magic is involved.  In the end the CO2 molecules in that section of the atmosphere emit IR radiation proportional to their temperature as required by Quantum Mechanics.  The amount of energy they absorb from lower in the atmosphere is irrelevant (except that it increases the temperature).  This is the basic cause of the greenhouse effect.

       Your discussion of quantum states, Kinetic Molecular theory and Albert Einstein appears to be an attempt to divert attention from the fact that you do not understand how energy is transmitted through the upper atmosphere.  This mechanism has been discussed several times here at SkS.  If you ask nicely there are scientists who post here who can explain it to you, including Tom Curtis.  If you do not understand the basics you need to study more before you claim that you have discovered that everyone else is incorrect.  Before you make public presentations on the greenhouse effect you must understand how energy is transmitted through the atmosphere.  

       The quality of your comments is going down.  You provide little data to support your claims.  

       IPCC estimates 2.0-4.5C per doubling.  Since CO2 has only increased 50%, there is at least 0.6C warming in the pipeline and 1.2C (from you, I prefer 1.5C)  has been measured, I calculate the current warming as 1.8C. That means that the low end of the IPCC significantly underestimates current warming and the high end might be about right.  You are mistakenly comparing current warming to IPCC projected warming with 540 ppm CO2.  I note that these temperature changes do not include most of the long term effects of melting ice and snow (which add to the warming).

       If your book challanges the warming observed by everyone, you will need data (which you have not provided) to suppport your wild claims.

       For the record, I have a Masters of Science in Organic Chemistry and teach Advanced Placement Chemistry in High School and basic Chemistry at a local Junior College.  

       Keep in mind why you were sent here. A scientist realized that you have a lot to learn about atmspheric chemistry and commenters here have a strong reputation. Tom Curtis is the most active poster here at SkS.  His posts are always detailed and supported by links to the appropriate literature.  I recommend that you listen very carefully to anything he posts.  If what Tom says does not make sense you should presume you do not understand the science.  Do not think that Tom is incorrect without strong, peer reviewed data (which you have not produced).

20988. Rob Honeycutt at 11:17 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop... Here you continue to assert without offering any substance, math, or evidence. 

20989. Rudmop at 09:57 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       I am sorry I did not read the admin suggestion about breaking up my paragraphs with spaces.  I need to write in a spell check mode, as I am constantly mispelling words.  Since this has no spell check editor, I write in MS word and cut and paste.  I was careless in realizing that it does not keep the formatting of paragraphs when you cut and paste.  My style of writing is a heavy usage of the semicolon; I appologize for that, but it is an unbreakable habit I learned by my excellent English Teacher, Mrs. Fitch in 10th grade.  

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] When most people write something, they want people to read it. Improving readability is absolutely worth moving on from you learnt in the 10th grade.

20990. Rudmop at 09:47 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       michael sweet @ 257, You are correct there about Arrhenius’ estimates. I'm forgetful; I knew that and was in error in my statement. I find it funny I had to go to my book in order to find this. Can we agree that the difference in the pre-industrial revolution temperature anomaly and the temperature anomaly of today is +1.2 degrees Celsius, (understanding that the entire difference cannot be attributed to CO2, but in this situation we will ignore that important detail, since the current climate model ignores that important detail)? By the way, much of that 1.2 degrees in difference has been questioned in its validity, but that is for another topic which I address in my book, and will not address here. So the 3.4 deg. C from Svante's estimates was an over estimation by 183 %. (3.4/1.2*100)-100
       Using the numbers you provided for the IPCC of between 2 and 4.5 degrees Celsius for the estimated temperature rise attributed to carbon dioxide, we get a reasonable error of 67 % high, and a huge error of 275 % high. If you take the error for the average of their two predictions, you get an error of 158% too high. Notice there is no under estimation, which there should be if we are going to realize that increasing carbon dioxide is not the sole contribution to the 1.2 degree Celsius (questionable) difference in temperature anomaly since the industrial revolution.
       In my model, if you take [(.28 deg.C/404ppmv CO2)x135 ppmv increase in CO2], you get 0.094 value for the temperature contributed by carbon dioxide to the difference between temperature anomaly since the industrial revolution and today. This is 92 percent too low for the measured temperature anomaly.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] It would be more convincing if you could explain how your calculation is compatible with the observations in say here. You must demonstrating a match to observations for any theory to have merit.

20991. Rob Honeycutt at 09:06 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       "I was told by a scientist at Oak Ridge Laboratories to find answers to my questions on the effects of CO2 on heating the climate, to come to this site."

       That's nice to know! 

20992. Rob Honeycutt at 09:05 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop... "I also read a response (251) that somehow the observations contradict my assertions. I am going off the daily observations we experience from wallowing in the climate soup. My assertions are supported by these observations."

       You have asserted this but have yet to demostrate it, and the opposite has been repeatedly demonstrated. 

20993. Tom Curtis at 08:49 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       michael sweet @257, for what it is worth Arrhenius calculated the relative absorption by H2O and CO2 by comparing observations of IR radiation from the Moon by S P Langley under different humidity conditions, and latitude of observation, after correcting for different times of observation.  By this times he determined the absorption across the whole IR spectrum when IR light passes through a "unit" of CO2 or of water vapour.  A "unit" was defined as the amount of CO2 passed by a ray passing vertically through the atmosphere, for CO2; and a similar ray with humidity conditions at the surface of "10 grammes per cubic meter of the Earth's surface" (p 240), which are noted as being near average humidity.  The effect of the different units for the different gases means that the measure automatically corrects for the different absolute abundences of CO2 and H2O vapour.  With those units he finds (for one latitude, see page 245) that CO2 absorbs 6.6% of radiation per unit, while H2O vapour extinguishes 22.5% per unit, ie, that CO2 absorbs 20.6% of the total 20.6% of the total radiation absorbed under average humidity conditions.

       The similarity of Arrhenius' estimate of the relative impact of CO2 to modern estimates under average humidity conditions helps explain his similar estimate of climate sensitivity.  However, conceptually Arrhenius is still operating under a mistaken idea of the full mechanism of the greenhouse effect, and mistaken in a similar way to Rudmop.  In particular, of necessity given the relative state of knowledge, he makes no allowance for the impact of altitude and temperature differences.  Further, although his estimate is observational rather than theoretical, it is based on very low quality obervations relative to modern standards.  As a result, his estimate overstates the relative impacts of CO2 and H2O absorption under similar conditions as estimated from LBL radiation models.  That is because he considers only absorption, and not thermal emission. 

       That error is partly compensated for by his model of the greenhouse effect (p 254 forward), which of necessity uses the Stefan-Boltzman law, but not Planck's Law (which was not proposed till 1900).  Further, it uses a single, near surface temperature for the atmosphere, which is in fact eliminated from his final formula for the greenhouse effect (equation 3).  The result is a theory quite different to the modern theory of the Greenhouse effect as expounded by Manabe.

       All this leads me to suspect the near approximation between Arrhenius' and modern estimates of climate sensitivity is to significant extent, a coincidence.  I have not the mathematics to show that is the case. 

20994. screwtop at 08:23 AM on 27 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       Also, I was interested to see that the Grantham Institute has lodged a complaint with the Independent Press Standards Organisation concerning the many inaccuracies in the Mail's Bates/NOAA article:
       http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Mail-on-Sunday-follow-up-February-2016.pdf

20995. screwtop at 08:17 AM on 27 February 2017
       This is why conservative media outlets like the Daily Mail are 'unreliable'
       

       Lamar Smith's denial and influence are concerning, but I'd be wary of taking his "unvarnished truth" comments out of context. It was part of a hypothetical "what the media might be saying about Trump if he were a Democrat" routine, so you would expect hyperbole.  It's not clear to me whether the "unvarnished truth" sentence was hypothetical rhetoric or his genuine attitude.

20996. michael sweet at 06:51 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Rudmop,

       If you are going to calcualte the increase in temperature from an increase in CO2 it is useful to review those who have gone before you.  Contrary to your claim at 255, Savante Arrhenius estimated that an increase in CO2 by 50% (from preindustrial 270 to 405 ppm) would result in an increase in temperature of 3.4C. Arrhenius 1896 page 267 (cited by 2015 other papers).  This is a little higher than the current IPCC range of 2-4.5C for a doubling of CO2, although some current estimates are as high as Arhennius.  Essentially, Arhennius is in agreement with current estimates while you are at odds with them.  I note that the stratosphere was not yet discovered when Arhennius made his calculation although I do not know if it affects the calculation.

       Please show why your model is so grossly different from Arhennius.  Suggest where Arhennius was incorrect that everyone else has missed and you have found.

       When you claim that Arhennius did not make this calculation you appear to be uninformed about what other scientists have done and how the calculation is made. 

20997. Rudmop at 06:03 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Yes the calculatios are in my paper. 

20998. Rudmop at 05:58 AM on 27 February 2017
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Kr @254, I appreciate your concern for the idea of reconsidering what my model may be lacking. It is well known that carbon dioxide is a substance that can trap heat by capturing IR photons. You are correct is pointing out how Svante Arrhenius correctly predicted this property of carbon dioxide. He did not predict the value, in terms of degrees/ppmv that it was capable of increasing the climate temperature. The attempt of scientists to determine a value or an approximation of this effect have relied heavily seem have relied mostly on a single approach. If this approach has the assumptions of Tom Curtis in 253, then there are some problems with it, as it seems to be in violation of the laws of quantum mechanics and thermodynamics. Tom Curtis in 253, mentions that there are 380,000 (millions) of collisions that an excited CO2 or H2O molecule will experience before it returns to it ground state energy level. This implies that there are millions of quantum transitions between excited state and ground state (which he incorrectly refers to as the base energy state); furthermore, it leads one to wonder it he also is implying that in each collision, there is a high energy transformation between the excited molecule and one of the other 990,596 ppmv that are not greenhouse gases, leading to closer than billion collisions. If this is indeed the implication, then it is a gross misrepresentation of the Kinetic Molecular theory, in which all collisions are elastic collisions. The first question that arises is, where the kinetic energy conservation? So the attempt to discredit my explanation falls short. You can't apply classical mechanics to a quantum mechanical problem. Remember the ultraviolet catastrophe? I guess in this case it would be the IR catastrophe. The foundations laid forth by great scientist such as Max Plank and Albert Einstein and Louis de Broglie, James Clerk Maxwell and William Thompson, (Lord Kelvin) can be used correct the apparent errors in in experimental procedure and calculation by the examples provided; examples that are being used to demonstrate the falseness of my model. I also read a comment either on my original post under the Trump Presidency, or in the earlier page 5 of this post that asked why I am posting to non-scientists. I also read a response (251) that somehow the observations contradict my assertions. I am going off the daily observations we experience from wallowing in the climate soup. My assertions are supported by these observations. One thing everyone forgot is the slightest variations in solar output influenced by sunspot activity. This will result in different observations in upwelling and down welling radiant differences from year to year, as have the most profound differences when observations were made between peaks and valleys of the 11 year sunspot cycles. The observations by taking the difference between the radiative upwelling, at the peak wavelengths of CO2, at surface level and TOA level is full of potential errors, because liquid water absorbs at this wavelength. Also
       I thought this skeptical science site was a blog with scientists. I was told by a scientist at Oak Ridge Laboratories to find answers to my questions on the effects of CO2 on heating the climate, to come to this site. I have to admit if I told my students to research blog sites in order to find answers to their research questions, that I would probably get some flack by fellow teachers and even parents for suggesting such an idea. But the value I saw is that it would allow other scientific minds to critique my views. I have presented my paper to AJP and should probably wait until they are able to look it over. I do worry that if I made one little error in formatting or even grammar and spelling that they will throw it out without any response. I suppose I have learned a lesson as to get on a site and have many ad hominem insults added into the critique.  I know that there need to be some calculations.  I will forgo those until the paper is evaluated by scientists who review for AJP.  

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] For future reference, if you want people to read what you post here, it would be extremely beneficial for you to break-up your lengthy tomes into a set of digestable paragraphs separated by spaces.   

20999. John Hartz at 04:18 AM on 27 February 2017
       Trump can save his presidency with a great deal to save the climate
       

       Recommended supplemental reading…

       Beware the Trump brain rot: The cognitive effects of this administration’s actions could be disastrous

       Democracy isn’t all that’s at risk under Trump’s agenda. There’s a 5-point attack happening on our nation’s minds

       by Sophia McClennen, Salon, Feb 25, 2017

21000. william5331 at 18:50 PM on 26 February 2017
       OMG measurements of Greenland give us a glimpse of future sea rise
       

       It seems to me that two processes might accelerate the melting of both major ice sheets beyond what we concieve of today.  The first is a type of close coupled Walker Cell.  When the ice is finally gone from most of the Arctic ocean for a period, the water will warm above the melting point of ice and will warm the air above it.  If this rising moist air drifts over Greenland, it will meet the ice and will cool.  As it flows down-slope to the ocean, more warm air will be sucked toward Greenland.  As the air sinks it heats adiabatically and over the approximate 3km drop from the peak to sea level it heats about 29 degrees C.  Of course it doesn't heat, it gives up this heat to the ice.  Secondly, because of the difference in the latent heat of water vapor to water and Ice to water, every gram of water vapor can melt about 6grams of ice as both turn to water.

       The second possible process is a sort of water lift (like an air lift).  For glaciers which are deep enough to be in contact with the deeper warmer saltier water, the  ice will melt on the front of the glacier.  The resulting mix of water will be fresher so will rise up the sloping ceiling of ice to discharge on the surface.  This will suck more of the deep water in.  As the ice front grows deeper and deeper as the glacier retreats along a retrograde slope, this process should become stronger.  In addition, the denser water should flow down slope more strongly the deeper the grounding line.

       Both processes are mass transfer (convention) processes which can be very strong when compared to thermodynamic processes.  (for instance the amount of heat which can be transfered by a heat pipe compared to the amount shifted by a solid bar of silver of the same diameter.

       An interesting account of the effect of a warm wind on the ice was given in a novel by Jean Auel called Plains Of Passage.  It is a novel but Jean did her home work and recounts what various explorers have observed.  p927ff

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