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nigelj at 12:06 PM on 6 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
Coal Miner @ 8
"Simplistic videos claiming CO2 absorbs IR heat from the earth, but not explaining why this happens at the molecular level will be met with justified skepticism."
Well a video at that level is quite a good idea.
However just remember Americans have presumably been to school and learned about The Theory of Evolution in some detail, and basic genetics, at the level of cells at least. This doesn't stop plenty of people still being in denial about the theory of evolution.
Some people are very hard to convince, because their thinking is strongly driven by ideology or belief, and others are just not good at science.
In the end people need to be encouraged to trust science, not blindly of course, but right now there seems to be a bizarre distrust of science that lacks any real justification.
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Coal Miner at 11:15 AM on 6 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
Statements about "the majority wanting more done on climate change" are not going to convince anyone. What percentage of people understand the actual science down at the molecular level? Very few. Maybe a video which explains that - starting with IR radiation hitting CO2 molecules and what happens next at the various wavelengths, and the energies involved, etc, etc, etc would be of value.
I think Trump will go along with anything which he is convinced is real and true. He loves his country - that is clear:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI
He is not "anti-science" but he's not going to blindly believe "science" until he or his administrators can understand it - particularly if the "science" proposes radical hits to the economy. He drives a hard bargain - his life has proven it. Renewables provide ~5% of our energy. To replace conventional forms is great, but it will be a radical, very expensive change. How many of you drive fossil fuel cars? Use lights from FF energy? Heat with FFs? If so, why?
Friday a UN Climate Offical said AGW is a hoax designed to destroy capitalism. Story is on investors.com, zerohedge, and others. Today a NOAA scientist says there was a pause and scientists altered the data for political reasons to make it appear there was no pause. I saw that on Zerohedge.
Stop whining and bashing Trump; and start PROVING BY SCIENCE to the common man that there is warming. Do not stand up and whine and show no evidence for your case. If you can PROVE YOUR CASE using science so it is understandable you will probably get better results. Simplistic videos claiming CO2 absorbs IR heat from the earth, but not explaining why this happens at the molecular level will be met with justified skepticism.
Moderator Response:[JH] The use of all caps is akin to shouting and is therefore prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. In addition, your entire post verges on the brink of sloganeering which is also prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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nigelj at 08:13 AM on 6 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
Mamaafrica @1
The article you reference claims NOAA has "almost no temperature data for Africa, and none for Central Africa".
However this is false. A quick check using google shows plenty of data is available for Africa as below. Data for Zambia is minimal but it does have some weather stations as below.
tahmo.org/african-climate-data/
The article in your link has a map of global land surface temperatures that in central Africa that are slightly cooler than average. This is entirely correct.
The article also has a map of combined land / ocean temperatures that shows central africa around Zambia as warmer than average. The article in your link claims this map is false, but it is also correct, but confusing to grasp. This map is a "blended" map that averages all temperatures over land and oceans regardless of geography, so is technically correct. The map in your article neglected to mention it was blended (probably deliberately). The annotation is in fact there in the original map by Noaa as below:
The NASA data don't blend or merge data like this, and so their map is a bit different and equally valid. It just depends how you are presenting data. I just take a general lay persons interest in climate change, and don't claim any expertise, but I can work this stuff out easily enough. The thing is, always check the original data and source material and the fine print. Denialist websites tend to be very missleading.
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John Hartz at 06:54 AM on 6 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
Mamaafrica: Check out:
Mail on Sunday launches the first salvo in the latest war against climate scientists by John Abraham, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, Feb 5, 2017
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Mamaafrica at 05:56 AM on 6 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #5
I am searching for responses to this article, just shared with me by a climate-change denying relative. Can you help? https://realclimatescience.com/2017/02/nasa-noaa-climate-data-is-fake-data/
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Rob Honeycutt at 04:38 AM on 6 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
Villaboo... That matches what I would expect from Amazon.
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barry1487 at 16:33 PM on 5 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
bobbyj, made a quick reply in the Hansen 88 thread.
https://skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1988-prediction-advanced.htm#120318
Moderator Response:[PS] Thank you for your cooperation. Most appreciated.
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barry1487 at 16:31 PM on 5 February 2017Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
bobbyj on another thread asked how last year's temps (GISS) fit with The Hansen model.
As 2016 annual anomaly came in at 1C, this puts last year's anomaly very close to the B scenario line for 2016. (Slightly above, actually, but that's random variation)
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barry1487 at 16:24 PM on 5 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Alexandre @ 1,
Tamino claimed several times that the hiatus is statistically not even there (e.g. here). How does the SkS team weigh in in this issue?
To be clear, the OP is about the 'pause' from the 40s to the 70s, Tamino on the recent slowdown.
While SkS have examined the so-called pause from a variety of angles, Tamino's take is that calling a pause is statistically invalid.
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barry1487 at 16:20 PM on 5 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
At @ 8,
Pause for thought.
There was this now infamous comment in a leaked e-mail from the University of East Anglia, “no upward trend” has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried."
The email was written in 2009, so a continued 15 years of no warming takes us to... 2024. Often misconstrued as 15 years only, but the language is quite clear.
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nigelj at 05:48 AM on 5 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
ELIofVA @6
I agree. I think we have two separate but related issues that are making climate change a challenge to deal with. First we have the science, then what we do to resolve the problem. This makes climate change a dimension more complex than debates about evolution, and closer to the bitter debates about tobacco.
On the science we have two groups spreading doubt and attempting to undermine the science. Firstly we have groups with vested interests in fossil fuels, and secondly we have groups who dislike government regulation on philosophical or ideological grounds (which translates ultimately to emotive grounds). They have formed a sort of alliance. These groups clearly have Donald Trumps ear and he has unfortunately appointed many of these people to his administration. It's a hostile takeover and rejection of science, in favour of short term profit goals and populism in the worst sense of the word populist.
We have to continue to counter these denialist arguments, obviously. However it's clear the majority of people in most countries do actually agree we climate change is a serious problem. You see this in various polls as below.
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/18/what-the-world-thinks-about-climate-change-in-7-charts/
I also think eventually about 95% of people will accept we are altering the climate. It just takes time for new science to gain traction. For example the theory of evolution took some time to be accepted. However given climate change must be tackled right now, we have to do our best to counter the denialist campaigns and get more people on side.
The other related but separate issue is how to resolve the climate problem, and the human psychology related to this. In some ways this is the greater challenge right now. We are basically asking people to make some financial sacrifices now to help future generations. This is a lot to expect, but it is the right thing to do ethically and even in a practical sense in ensuring humanity has a future and viable future economy. We should be conserving the environment to enhance the chances of future generations, not squandering the environment and handing them considerable challenges that we know won't have easy solutions.
To better persuade people we need to better show that the costs of transition to fossil fuels are not as great as they fear, and that the denialists claims are not fact based. It is fear of the unknown and complexities of distant future events that is holding people back.
It is hard to break such a long reliance on fossil fuels, and it plays on our subconscious minds I would say. Habits are hard to break. I suspect many people are asking is transitioning to renewable energy the right thing to do? Should we leave coal in the ground? I think we should, but this is the question that needs profound leadership and answers.
There is also a question of political leadership. Unfortunately politicians are funded in election campaigns by lobby groups, including oil companies, and it's reasonable to speculate this affects their preferred policies. So we have the bizarre situation in The USA, where the majority of the public do want more done on climate change, from various polls, but they are ignored completely by Congress (and now Trump as well). This is a tough issue to resolve, as it requires politiicans to be brave and do the right thing.
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villabolo at 03:53 AM on 5 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
I should have added above that it is one of John Cook's e-books that has a formatting issue. Unfortunately I cannot remember the title but, if I recall correctly, it is a book that has an image of him and his daughter.
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villabolo at 03:39 AM on 5 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
@Rob Honeycutt:
This is a very graphic intensive book, leaning toward an artistic approach, over just simple line graphics. That works very well on the iPad, would that translate to the Kindle?
I don't know about Apple but Kindle requires the services of a professional formatter. Last time I checked John Cook's book had font that crowded and overlapped each other. Formatters know how to make it look good. They cost anywhere from 100 to 200 dollars (and up if you have a lot of images).
I have a Kindle book which came out ok - I used a formatter - even though it has a lot of images. My images are black and white and consist of texts and handwritten documents.
I recommend looking into Kindle and give them a try. They do have a rule, though - which they strictly enforce - that you cannot be selling the same book on a different website.
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ELIofVA at 01:57 AM on 5 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
I wish we could ignore Trump as we go about the task of preparing for an economy that recognizes the need to limit our emissions to the amount that can be sequestered. However, because he has such power to be destructive, that is not an option. The fossil fuel promoter is aggressively increasing our emissions and attempting to delete the knowledge that reveals the threat. Putting enemies of the environment in charge of protecting the environment, can not be ignored. The movement to substantively address climate change must multitask. We still have to have that conversation with diehard non-believers, we need to have a conversation among those that do believe about how to measure the goals that would solve the problem, and we must defend politically actions that will take us in the wrong direction.
I am still looking for the widespread recognition, even among climate change believers that we absolutely must structure our economy to limit our emissions to that which can be sequestered. To assess our own carbon footprint, we need to consider if it is in proportion to our equal share [(total net natural sequestration+human teck seqestration)/world population].
Even as we are defending the limited measures already achieved, we still must seek consideration in the public about the measure of what it takes to solve the problem.
The recognition that we must limit our human emissions to the amount that can be sequestered out of atmosphere (carbon cycle) is yet to be recognized by many climate change believers. Because our carbon concentration in the atmosphere is already too high, we need a net sequestration economy where we emit less than can be sequestered. This is the only way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Imagining how this can happen is a very important part of our work.
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David Kirtley at 00:42 AM on 5 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
Received my dead-tree copy in the mail yesterday and devoured the first 4-5 chapters. Well done, Rob! Short and sweet chapters which are very easy to comprehend.
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chriskoz at 19:36 PM on 4 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
jenna@4,
Scientists are not jounalists/politicians and they usually do not practice public speaking skills. Those few who do, say they'd rather left it to others, better trained at it.
People who produce those videos, like Collin, or greenman, will have limitted number of acquaintance, and those tend to be just public figures, like Katharine, Stephan or Richard. Are they going to ask randomly at a meeting like AGU, "anyone does no mind to record an interview for policymakers?" Akward. That's why they stick to those comfortable and who do not mind.
If you want to have a feeling about the numbers/diversity of scientists behind the message in video, maybe wait for the scientist march on Washington event, eschduled on 22 April, coinciding with Earth Day.
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bobbyj at 15:08 PM on 4 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
One of my wishes is that someone with better statistical and graphic skills than I will update Hansen's 1988 scenarios with 2016 data. At about 1c above baseline, I think we passed, at least briefly, above scenario B and not far off from scenario A.
Presenting this in a graphic form would stick a stake in the heart of the "models are wrong" argument if Hansen absolutely nailed predictions 30 years into the future... which he pretty much accomplished.
Moderator Response:[PS] The Hansen 1988 predictions are discussed in detail here. Take a look at the article and please have any followups on that thread please.
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jenna at 13:11 PM on 4 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
I think these messages would have carried more weight if the interviewer had sought out some scientists that haven't already made the rounds (possibly too many times?) ie; Katharine Hayhoe or may have some past credinilty issues, ie; Peter Gleick.
Please don't take this the wrong way. I just think we need some fresh, unlnown faces to deliver this important message. Wouldn't there have been a much larger group to choose from at the AGU Fall meeting?
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nigelj at 13:06 PM on 4 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
Chriskoz, You are probably right on all that.
Trump has no idea what he's doing, terrible ideas, and makes GW Bush look like a genius. I can't believe I'm saying that.
Trump is actually the worlds largest "troll" and has perfected the art. I hate tweets as it becomes such a shallow form of analysis. People should ideally ignore the attention seeker. But you know the media and many in the public can't resist responding to inflammatory people.
One week of this guy is more than enough. However after a few months even his own supporters may by crying enough is enough.
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chriskoz at 12:20 PM on 4 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
I think that the caption and the commentary to this video is misleading. None of the scientist in it have "A Messsage to Trump". No one uses T-word, and only Kim Cobb refers to the "incoming administration".
T-man receives disproportionate amount of attention in media (e.g. 80% of world news in my local newspaper), also ~50% weekly news in SkS contains T-word. This is the attention the man, the most narcissistic and the most moronic politician in livin memory if not in history, does not desrve. As psychologists suggests, the best dealings with such a childish narcissist is to simply ignore his ravings, do not provoke more. Note that his current ravings did not include climate science yet (other than his destruction of Obama's climate change webpage & rumours of his desire to destroy climate data from gov computers), we can expect more to come. Best strategy is to ignore and do not provoke, because any attempt to strike a civil conversation with a 12y old-like narcissist on a dificult and thoughtful topic will be futile. Common understanding between such a narcissist and a person at PhD level is just impossible. That's why a message such in this video shoul be directed to "current administration" (or othe politicians in denial of CS) insted. Also not easy talk, but at least the basic dialog is more realistic as those politicians do not live in "alternative reality". Their denial is limitted to climate science (and othe inconvenient science) only.
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nigelj at 09:07 AM on 4 February 2017A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
What an excellent, insightful series of comments in the video.
I would say to Trump think of future generations. Most people balance their own current needs, and think of the future, and the needs of others as well. Don't let it become too one sided. Thinking widely brings benefits back to individuals anyway.
I would also say please appreciate that geoengineering solutions to climate change carry massive risk. I suspect Trump is taking his hardline position on climate change publicly, while secretly believing (or half believing) we are altering the climate, but assuming that geotechnical solutions will rescue humanity. As a business person he understandibly hedges risks and would think like this. But as we know geoengineering solutions are very high risk to the planet and are utterly impractical.
I read a persuasive article in the media that suggested America is currently in the grip of a type of "coup" or hostile takeover as below.
www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11794343
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nigelj at 06:32 AM on 4 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Clearly any slowdown in global temperatures of any length, or pause raises the question of solar influences. My understanding is that there are three solar cycles influencing the climate, and that they cannot significantly slow down the projected warming from greenhouse gases. I would be interested if the experts could tell me if I have got this about right as below.
Firstly the suns energy output varies in an 11 year cycle, but not very much and only causes a fraction of a degree of change. Given the short period of the cycle it cannot really slow down longer term warming from greenhouse gases.
Secondly we have a longer solar cycle of about 50 years (from the article on this website called "It's The Sun") but this only changes temperatures by about 1 degree maximum. It was responsible for the Maunder minimum in the 1800's where global temperatures dropped about half a degree. We base knowledge of this cycle partly on historical evidence as well as scientific calculation.
It does appear we are now in a cooling phase of this cycle, but it is calculated to have negligible affect. Given this cycle only has a small affect on temperatures and in the suns energy output, it can't really significantly slow down warming from greenhouse gases and won't save us, and could equally speed it up slightly anyway later this century.
Thirdly we have changes in solar insolation due to regular changes in the earths orbit that can alter temperatures by a degree or two, but this cycle is 100,000 years preiodicity and we are in a stable part of the cycle, and will remain there for about 10 - 20,000 years. (This stuff is mainstream science and not controversial so I won't to provide a link). This cycle is therefore not capable of impacting on warming from greenhouse gases over the next few thousands of years, so won't save us and is irrelevent to the debate.
Fred Singer talked about a long term solar cycle. I can't remember the name, but this cycle has been discredited as it doesn't cause a net change in global temperature.
So in conclusion my understanding is changes in solar energy output from the sun have been extensively researched, and are extremely unlikely to significantly slow down future warming from CO2.
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John Hartz at 12:14 PM on 3 February 2017Fact Check: Trump's Cabinet Picks on Human-Caused Global Warming
Recommended supplemental reading:
Future of Paris Accord Uncertain as Tillerson Becomes Secretary of State by Benjamin Hulac & Jean Chemnick, E&E News/Scientific American, Feb 2, 2017
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Fairoakien at 10:18 AM on 3 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Yes threr is global warming. There are natural causes of GW other than human produced GHGs
Again proponeents of GW are reaching for any any unproven or untestable hypothesizes to support global warming continues unabeatted Obviously theer was pause in GW between 1945 and 196 as there was between 1998 and 2013. But these paises are denied. Now we GW sup[porter are latching onto theories re the ocean currents and cycles w/o any data to support these supposed studies.
They ignore that between 1934 and 1944 the global temp increse 0.45 C.
A much bigger change than we just experienced since 2011.
Why did the global temp incr so much bewteen 1934 & 1944 would be good to know ansd compare to what is happening today.
Obviously the sun influences cvlimate on earth as it did during the LIA, ie the suns rotation slowed . but items ike this are debunked as bad science, while theories of deep welling in the ocean are accepted.
Moderator Response:[PS] Deleted rampant offtopic sloganeering. This appears to be a pattern. Multiple comments policy infringements. In particular, note the requirement for backing your claims with evidence. Things like "science ignores" are patently false as even a cursory reading of IPCC reports would tell you. Furthermore please use the search function to find appropriate topics and dont bother with gish-gallops of long-debunked talking points.
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scaddenp at 09:18 AM on 3 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
"in my experience, Kindle does not handle graphics well".
Well I love my Kindle but the above is something of an understatement. I agree that Kindle app is good though.
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Tom Curtis at 07:18 AM on 3 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
Rob @2, in my experience, Kindle does not handle graphics well. My kindle was, however, a basic model. There is a colour version that may do better. That said, Amazon has an app for tablets so that you can read kindle books from an tablet. (Mine is Android device, so I am not certain it works on ipad, although I can so no reason why not.) As a side note, you can also read kindle books on a PC, if that is your inclination.
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nigelj at 07:03 AM on 3 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Art Vandelay @8, yes the leaked emails were most unfortunate. Rotten luck really. They were so open to manipulation.
I work in technology not science, but I know that the term "tric and hide the decline" were not sinister, and were shorthand for completely legitimate processes as various investigations have found, but they are created a bad impression.
Regarding temperatures my understanding is similar to OPOF that you need 30 years of data to get beyond natural variation. Basically the IPCC only confirmed we were altering the climate when they had a 30 year warming trend.
I also understand that the IPCC says any pause or slowdown less then 15 years is just natural varaition and temporary, over 15 years and we would need to be asking questions. The slowdown a few years back was nearer 6- 10 years so doesn't bother me, and I just fail to see why some people say it wasn't a pause.
My understanding is that all powerful natural variation operates on quite short cycles, up to about 15 years, but there are longer term cycles like the PDO that work on longer cycles, but are unlikely to slow warming significantly as far as I understand.
I would also be worried if there were no pauses or "blips". You would not expect the climate to warm in a precisely straight line from CO2, as there are just obviously natural influences modulating this.
However the pause around the 1950s was quite long, and has not been well explained as yet. It seems to correspond to a slow period in solar activity and aerosols from industry, but as far as I'm aware neither really explain this period according to the article above. Were there ocean processes at work?
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Rob Honeycutt at 06:09 AM on 3 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
I've never owned a Kindle, and am not a big fan of Amazon, but I'm curious, Ronsch. This is a very graphic intensive book, leaning toward an artistic approach, over just simple line graphics. That works very well on the iPad, would that translate to the Kindle?
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Ronsch at 06:04 AM on 3 February 2017A punchy climate book from a citizen scientist
He would have a wider audience (me, for example) if it was also distributed as an ebook at Amazon.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:47 AM on 3 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
uncletimrob@7,
There is another way of talking about the 30-year trend in surface temperature data.
The monthly surface temeprature values vary significantly even from month to month. This can be seen in the scatter of the monthly value dots on any data presentation. So if there was indeed no significant continuing warming trend any new monthly average temperature should have a significant chance of being cooler than the value 360 months earlier.
Prior to the 1980s that was indeed the case. The rate of CO2 increase and the resulting warming was less than the more recent rate (and things like particulate from lousy burning of fossil fuels dampened the warming). Since the 1980s there are significantly fewer cases where a monthly value is lower than the value 360 months before.
The satellite data also has very few cases where a monthly value is cooler than the value 360 months prior. Of course it is such a short data set that it is difficult to justify any interpretation of the satellite data set as Trumping what is seen in data sets with longer durations of data. But that does not justify delaying actions to reduce the rate of CO2 increase until there is more satellite data.
An additional point about climate variability and the importance of considering 30 year periods of data: When climate design data is developed for the Canadian Buidling Code any data gathering location with less than 30 years of data is considered to be a marginally accurate basis for design requirements. And even at a location with 30 years of data the nearest location with more than 30 years of data is referred to when trying to decide what would be reasonable.
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RedBaron at 02:33 AM on 3 February 2017Fact Check: Trump's Cabinet Picks on Human-Caused Global Warming
@shoyemore,
I often hoped the same as this and even went on record that this might playout untill I saw Sonny Perdue ended up being the sec ag nominee. If we had a more forward thinking sec of ag then the two working together might have given us a huge advantage. We have enough agricultural land that this pricing of externalities could have brought us either to a net negative carbon or very low indeed. We even have a similar blueprint (though voluntary) here in OK already set up. Alas it may be just a pipe dream.
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shoyemore at 00:27 AM on 3 February 2017Fact Check: Trump's Cabinet Picks on Human-Caused Global Warming
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is in an invidious position - he is from an engineering background, and he has sat on top of Exxon Mobil's extensive scientific work on climate change.
Tillerson would have been nobody's ideal choice as Secretary of State, but it will be interesting to see how he handles climate diplomacy. The US has already handed Asian market penetration over to China in a whole range of goods (by ditching TPP), now it may concede global climate leadership to China also. In this video by Peter Sinclair, Dan Kammen reflects on Tillerson's options.
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Art Vandelay at 23:55 PM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Pause for thought.
There was this now infamous comment in a leaked e-mail from the University of East Anglia, “no upward trend” has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried."
Personally, I'm more worried by the fact that there wasn't nor isn't a pause in the surface trend, or indeed the lower troposphere, but that aside, such an off the cuff remark never intended for public consumption did for many provide a source of authority to (falsely) validate the significance of a short term weakening of the surface trend.
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Tom Curtis at 21:50 PM on 2 February 2017CO2 lags temperature
poncholarp @519:
1) "The graph I was quoting .... ... not at a log offset..."
The graph plots CO2 and temperature against time. It does not plot correlation, and if you were to attempt to plot correlation, you would use a scatter plot. As it happens, the correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature is 0.888 +/- 0.037 using means of 1000 year bins of the data, with bins where one or both data sets had no representatives being excluded. (The results might differ with other means of dealing with the fact that the actual data do not have CO2 values and deuterium values on the same dates.) In contrast the correlation of CO2 forcing and temperature is 0.879 +/-0.038. Both are high, and while (as expected) the CO2 concentration has the higher correlation, both are within error of each other.
Note that we expect the correlation to be higher for concentration because temperature drives the changes in CO2 concentration, while CO2 forcing only partially drives the temperature over that period. In contrast, in the modern period, when it is known that temperature is not driving CO2 concentration, we expect CO2 forcing to correlate better with temperature than does CO2 concentration. And indeed, that is the case.
In any event the difference between CO2 concentration and CO2 forcing plotted against (in this case the Epica Dome C 800,000 year record) is scarcely noticable to the naked eye:
(Note, the data terminated 24,000 years BP for deuterium, but there was no data for CO2 in the 24,000 - 25,000 years BP bin, hence the first data point is for 25,000 years BP.)
2) "If you could accurately subtract..." What utter tripe, and you know it to be utter tripe because your conditional "If you could" shows that your conclusion that "...you would clearly see that warming trends have no correlation to co2" is simply made up. As it happens, they also have ice core records of methane and nitrous oxide, and you are simply wrong. Your made up "fact" is a fiction.
3) "Very impessive graph though that ... now further proves my point" I am very certain it does not, but cannot mount any argument because you have completely failed to provid evidence for this claim. Given that, it amounts to sloganeering.
4) "The bar graph you used implies that co2 is a warming driver... when, this is what is being debated in this thread ..."
Now, either you are attempting to criticize the standard theory of greenhouse gases and the LGM - which is that temperature responds to the log of CO2, and that CO2 was one of several relevant greenhouse gases, and that changes in albedo had slightly more effect than the combined effect of greenhouse gases. In that case I do not need to support the graph because it simply presents that theory you are trying to criticize - and shows that you have not accurately presented it.
Alternatively you are trying to refute a theory of your own concoction that no informed person believes, in which case who cares. I think, however, that you are trying to pass of the theory of your own concoction as that which climate scientists use, and pretend the refutation of your nonsense thereby refutes thousands of person/years of research.
Moderator Response:[PS] Both of you need to keep it civil. Take a deep breath, ignore provocation and stick to discussing the science.
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uncletimrob at 17:57 PM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
@5 OPOF, I have great difficulty explaining this to people, I'm guessing because 30 years in some cases a significant fraction of their lives. Even people with some matematical training are happy to pick a couple of yeaars to prove their point but to ignore long term trends. Personally I hope that the models and trends are shown to be erroneous, but the evidence is stacked against that I believe.
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Doug Bostrom at 16:30 PM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
A deep dive comes up with a fascinating report. Thanks for this; great stuff.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:53 AM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
The common practice for evaluating climate data has always been to look at a 30-year set of data (along with all the previous history that is available). That was always the way that the Canadian Building Code climate data for design was updated every 10 years, a new most recent 30 year set of data being the basis for location specific design values (along with the full history of data for each location).
An appropriate way to look at the trend of the data is the 30-year rolling average.
There has been no pause/hiatus in the 30-year riolling average. Evene the 40 year satellite data would show a fairly steady rise of the 10 years of 30-year rolling average.
Looking at shorter sets of data (or cherry-picking bits of detail from the historical record) is the only way to create the impression of justification for claims that warming due to increased CO2 is not continuing to occur, or the rate of warming has dramatically changed from a previous rate in a way that is inconsistent with the current best understanding of climate science.
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Tom Curtis at 09:52 AM on 2 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #4
In the humour department comes this paper refuting the science of global warming:
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chriskoz at 07:16 AM on 2 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #4
In case AUS federal politics are not on this site's radar, here's the rebirth of "clean coal" meme debunked here in the past:
Coal could get clean-energy subsidy under new Turnbull focus
The option of redirecting federal subsidies from exclusively renewable energy projects to encourage investment in new, coal-fired power generators, is among "several ideas" being considered as part of a wide review of policy.
my emphasis
So Turnbull will have directed the subsidies to coal power stations in a move embracing his predecessor (Abbott) slogan that "coal isgood for humanity". Sad but it was somewhat predictable: Turnbull revealed time and time since becoming PM, that science is not any guidance in his policy decisions.
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robert test at 07:11 AM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Wonderful article. A few weeks ago I was having a conversation with someone I know who is a long-time AGW denier who frequently waffles on exactly the position he takes.
In that conversation he denied that anyone has claimed there was/is a pause in warming.
Ari Jokimäki observes that "apparently, the first claims of global warming hiatus after 1998 were made in 2006 by well-known climate change mitigation opponents."
Of course there is the distinction between the science literature and the popular literature.
I would like to see an attempt made to create a complete bibliography of the leading denier articles that claimed there was/is a pause in warming.
The historical record of this travesty should be preserved.
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nigelj at 07:06 AM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Excellent history. I find this pause issue pretty interesting, just as a lay person observer. I think a lot of this depends on how you define a hiatus or pause.
For example, I'm looking at the NASA Giss surface temperature record, and clearly there was a slowdown in surface temperatures from roughly 2002 - 2010, (just eye balling the graph)and there were also previous slowdowns like this. I see this as a slowdown or pause of at least some kind. I would suggest the general public see this as a pause, and it would be most unwise to say to them its not a pause, or you come across as claiming white is black. It's important not to let the denialist people spook you into making wild claims. Of course you can say with validity that this "pause" was not statistically significant.
I think it would be valid to say theres been no 'pause' in terms of the underlying greenhouse effect, or total energy accumulation, because that is what the evidence shows. But you should be specific that theres no pause in terms of energy accumulation, and not simply say there was no pause of any kind.
The real issue to me is what caused the pause in surface temperatures? The most likely explanation is natural variation or noise.
Given the greenhouse effect should in theory and assuming it is the only climate forcing agent, cause a straight line, it can only be natural variation. Foster and Rhamstorf subtracted all known natural cycles from the temperature record and were left with something getting near a straight line, reinforcing the natural variation theory. There was nothing to suggest something totally unknown was at play.
The sunspot cycle is known to be a factor that can supress or exaggerate temperatures for a period.
Ocean cycles clearly affect surface temperatures, because el nino and la nina years stand out. It appears there were a lot of la ninas and weak el ninos during the slow period, which suggests some sort of ocean process. My understanding is energy went into the deep oceans, and it's hard to measure this affect on temperatures at that depth, so hence the generally flat global temperatures.
Clearly the pause is now over, which suggests this ocean phenomenon has reversed and may be cyclical. But do we know for sure, could you get quite a long pause? It seems to me these ocean cycles are not well understood. However the ocean can't by definition act as some sort of heat sink forever, and that heat is going to come out, or alternatively the ocean would stop absorbing so much heat. Given the big jump in temperatures over the last three years it must be one or the other?
The IPCC back about 1990 also predicted slow periods of about 10 years, due to natural variation, and we have seen a slow period of about 6 - 10 years depending on what graph you look at. This prediction surely reinforces that the IPCC is a reliable authority. Rather than playing down the pause, I would highlight this. Don't let the denialists frame the debate and make the definitions.
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Tom Dayton at 05:49 AM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Alexandre, unfortunately there is a lot of confusion about this topic due to use of jargon and loose terminology rather than actual disagreements among scientists. I agree with Tamino (enter "pause" in the search field of his site) and others that there has been no hiatus/pause/slowdown in "the trend" of surface temperature, given that I and those other people define "the trend" to mean the "long term" trend in surface temperature. There is no doubt among those people that the surface temperature has, does, and always will vary around that long term trend, as "short term" trends that are too short to reasonably imply any change in the underlying long term trend.
Some scientists have investigated the causes of "the pause/hiatus/slowdown," unfortunately using those terms instead of being clear that they were discussing one of (or some of) those short term trends, not the underlying long term trend.
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Alexandre at 03:37 AM on 2 February 2017Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s
Tamino claimed several times that the hiatus is statistically not even there (e.g. here). How does the SkS team weigh in in this issue?
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John Hartz at 01:26 AM on 2 February 2017Trump is copying the Bush censorship playbook. Scientists aren't standing for it
Recommended supplemental reading:
A new battle over politics and science could be brewing. And scientists are ready for it by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Jan 31, 2017
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Ger at 22:49 PM on 1 February 2017We may be closer than we thought to dangerous climate thresholds
Rate of change: during 1950-1980 the average rate of change was around 0. Like if the than emitted fossil CO2 was in equilibrium with the nature. Nature, the sea, was in that period capable to absorp that amount of CO2. Currently It looks like the top layers of the oceans are satured so more CO2 stays in atmosphere, capturing more heat.
I saw (sorry forgot reference) at another site that it takes a 30 years before the mixing of the deeper layers is back in (some sort of) equilibrium.
And lo and behold, around 2010 we see an even faster rate of heating up occur. Even if the heating is a 0.1 C (its more a 0.15~02) a year, after 13 more years we would be at 2.3 C already before (if nothing changes) we pick up another sprint in temperature rise)
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MA Rodger at 22:06 PM on 1 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #4
scaddenp @10.
Your graph is not unusual for SO2 graphs in that it stops at 2000. Coal-use has thankfully ceased its massive post-2000 rise and perhaps even peaked, as data from the BP 2016 review suggests.
The stat is mirrored in CDIAC CO2 emission data (2000 - 2,413Gt(C), 2015 - 4105Gt(C), down 2% on 2014).Thankfully, the post-2000 global SO2 emissions are not as dramatic as CO2 emissions, this graphic of SO2 from Klimont et al (2013) demonstrates.
And even more up-to-date is the NASA Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Page which shows emissions 2005-14 from 500 locations around the globe and so allows analysis by latitude. It also splits emissions into electricity generation (totalling ~50%), smelters (~12%), FF (~12%), volcano (~25%). And it shows the monitored anthropogenic sources falling from 2007 (58 TgSO2) to 2014 (41 TgSO2). We can presumably expect this trend to continue for some years as SO2 emissions are further decoupled from coal use and coal-use hopefully also dropping substantially.
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poncholarpez at 20:24 PM on 1 February 2017CO2 lags temperature
Tom Curtis. The graph I was quoting in the OP isays it is a direct correlation to historical observed co2 v temp. They rise at the same rate, not at a log offset with an assumed modified result for proportion of co2 making up greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. If you could accurately subtract other greenhouse gass portion of the temprature into that graph, then you would clearly see that warming trends have no correlation to co2. Very impessive graph though that combined with the feedback given, now further proves my point but in the upside spikes of the graph too. Thanks for that ;)
The bar graph you used implies that co2 is a warming driver under the greenhouse gasses group, when, this is what is being debated in this thtead, yet it is being taken as gospel that it is?? Furthermore, the bar graph you provided takes no account of water vapour as a greenhouse gass and takes no account of potential cloud cover conditions. Ill informed, nice try.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please keep it civil.
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scaddenp at 14:07 PM on 1 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #4
Tom, I was basing of this
which certainly to come from a published source.
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nigelj at 13:33 PM on 1 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #4
So coal causes some quantity of cooling through the global dimming effect. But as noted, it also causes warming, and on the best evidence we have this is the more powerful effect, although with some level of uncertainty.
However we cannot stop there. I read this recently so thought I would add it in. A recent study by the WHO has found air pollution, including particularly from coal, causes far more deaths than previously thought, as below.
www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/
And coal mining remains a very hazardous occupation. We had a coal mine explode a few years back, killing dozens of people, despite all the modern technology, and health and safety rules.
And we are no longer in the Industrial Revolution with coal generating steam power or home heating. We now have other energy alternatives.
Things constantly evolve and change.
You have to consider the big picture, and the full range of evidence. Trump seems to struggle with that, as do his inner circle.
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Tom Curtis at 12:32 PM on 1 February 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #4
scaddenp @7, do you know that global dimming is reducing from a scientific study. My understanding was that as aerosols decreases in the developed world due to the introduction of scrubbers, it increased in the third world, and particularly in China due to their rapid industrialization. Because aerosols tend to be regional effects, it may be that global dimming as measured in the US, EU or Australia has fallen, but that globally it has remained the same or increased. I have made a quick skim of Wild 2012, and Wild 2016, and can see no definite conclusion on that point. Wild 2012 does illustrate the different trends in different regions (Figure 2).
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