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Comments 23101 to 23150:

  1. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    For some reason, in Tom's comment 11, the link to the XKCD cartoon has extra junk at the start. This one should work. The cartoon is definitely worth it - thanks, Tom.

  2. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    Moderator inline @4, the only contact information for Coral Davenport that I can find is her twitter account.  As I do not, and will forseeably, have a twitter account that does not help me.  I would be quite happy, however, for somebody else with a twitter account (or other contact details) to advise her of this dicussion.

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Try: coral.davenport@nytimes.com

  3. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    XKCD has an interesting cartoon on global warming, which is unfortunately too large to place here.  Quote:

    "[After setting your car on fire.]  Listen, you car's temperature has changes before."

  4. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    OPOF @7, you need to draw a distinction between conditions under which humans can continue to live as a biological species; and those underwhich we can sustain our current population and civilization.  If, biologically, only a million humans are able to continue ekeing out an existence near the polar caps, reduced to the state of hunter gatherers than Earth is still inhabitable by humans.  Under those conditions, we know it is inhabitable because humans continue to inhabit it.  

    The level of ecological complexity needed to sustain such a life is minimal compared to that which exists today.  All that is required is the existence of some prey animals, and some (perhaps wild) fruits for sustenance.

    You also need to understand the type of robustness found in ecological systems.  It is relatively easy to knock an ecological system out of kilter - to remove a key species so that a large number of other dependent species will also be lost with the result that the surviving system can sustain only a far more limited total number of species, and total biomass.  But the ecosystem as a whole will survive (will predictably survive) the loss of 90% or more of species.  We know that because it has happened at the Permian mass extinction.  More importantly, we know that because the most difficult factor any living thing has to deal with in its environment is other living things.  The range of nearly all plants could be greatly extended were it not for the competition of other plants more suited to particular conditions.  Likewise with animals.  The effect of a mass extinction, consequently, is to remove the most fearsome impediments to survival of the surviving species.  That loss of competition itself allows the survival of species not specifically dependent on particular other species for survival.

    That last condition is most easilly met by generalists - those species not adapted to any particular condition but found across a wide range of conditions across the planet.  Among these, preeminent among large animals are humans.

    So, except for two caveats, humans will survive the coming ecological collapse.  I say the coming collapse because if global warming does not do it (and temperature increases of 4 C may well bring it about), species transfer by trade will; and if not that over fishing will.  The two caveats are that global mean surface temperatures do not rise by more than 10 C, and that we do not spark intense enough wars as a result of the collapse so as to exterminate ourselves.  Even if we do that later, after a few years the Earth will be uninhabited by humans, but still habitable.

  5. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    One Planet Only @7

    You seem to make the point that too many people are putting their selfish short term concerns and personal benefit above the concerns and rights of future generations. I agree with this, and it’s not a viable long term plan for the planet.

    Part of the reason is just selfishness. However part of the reason may be how we process information. Humans are evolved to be good at processing information on short term risks, but struggle to get to grips with long term risks, especially complicated ones. There is some psychological research on this, and I can't remember where, but probably easily googled. There is thus a temptation to just ignore the long term future as being too hard to contemplate.

    Of course experts and long term thinkers have tried to do the job for us. The Stern report looks at long term issues and costs of climate change and costs of mitigation, and shows that reducing emissions can be done at an affordable cost to society. However the media have suspiciously avoided much discussion of this research, and it is dismissed by climate sceptics with a wave of their imperious hands.  What a surprise.

  6. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    Tom Curtis @ 2 and 4.

    All your points are well made, and seem technically correct to me, and are informative for a non climate scientist like me. I agree it's important people are accurate in descriptions, and avoid hyperbole.

    However you might be falling into your own trap in one regard. You make the valid point that too much concentration on the 2 degree limit and unproven claims that its been breached, gives climate sceptics an excuse to claim its too late to do anything.

    However you then give a description of research that heat stress only becomes a problem at 35 degrees or more at 100% humidity and this requires 7 - 10 degrees of warming. This in turn gives the climate sceptics breathing space, as they would argue we will never hit such large temperature increases!

    I also recall India has just had a massive, record setting, extended and dangerous heatwave with temperatures of 35 - 50 degrees. This may not be at 100% humidity, and as concerning as the definition in the Sherwood research, but its still very stressful. The last IPCC report stated that theres already evidence of increasing heatwaves, so this is already a problem in some regions.

  7. The Madhouse Effect, a review

    Martin @4: That is an interesting anecdote. Were you onboard with the joke you made, or were you actually just uninformed at the time, trying to make conversation?

    If this had happened to me (atmospheric scientist) back then, I would have tried to "convince" you as well; if it happened to me today, in the US, I would shut up and maybe try to move away from this (joking) person.

  8. One Planet Only Forever at 01:00 AM on 13 September 2016
    2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    Tom,

    A scientific assessment of the regional temperature change that "human beings" could live with is, like all such science, just the evaluation of a bit of the whole.

    Human survivability is actually only able to be properly assessed on the whole, not by a bit. That means that the survivability of the robust diversity of life which human beings are only a part of needs to be understood.

    That is a much more complex matter to figure out. It would seem likely to only be well understood when it becomes apparant that the warming was too much too fast, when it is too late to practically mitigate the created and unavoidably obvious damage done.

    It would seem that the practical sustainability of human life as a sustainable part of the robust diversity of all life far into the future on this amazing planet could be challenged by a significantly lower amount of temperature change than the change that 'Human Beings evaluated in isolation of other life' could tolerate. And any created challenge for future generations deserves to be acknowedged as a fundamentally unacceptable thing for a previous generation to do to a future generation (it is fundamantally unjust to consider the opportunity perceived to be lost by a portion of a current generation to be able to be balanced against the challenges created for future generations - as percieved by those in the current generation who would be giving up their opportunity for more personal benefit).

  9. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    Manmade climate change is already directly impacting humans in ways we are just now beginning to understand...

    Blame Global Warming for Your Bad Attixtude by Eric Roston, Bloomberg News, Sep 8, 2016

  10. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    Tom@4,

    Now I undesrtand that you really mean homo sapiens uninhabitability threshold be 7-12oC based on Sherwood and Huber (2010). It's higher than I imagined previously & I thought it (erroneously) be a typo. Thanks for your explanation.

  11. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    chriskoz @3, Sherwood and Huber (2010) (SkS discussion here) state:

    "Peak heat stress, quantified by the wetbulb temperature TW , is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds 31 °C. Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 °C are possible from fossil fuel burning."

    Their estimates of regions effected are based on areas that have at least one five hour period with Tw (wet bulb temperature) equal to or greater than 35 C in a year.  They are slightly pessamistic about the survivability of such temperatures, given that mine workers routinely work 10 hour or longer shifts with Tw up to 32.5 C.  Wet bulb temperatures of 35 C are survivable with no work, no sunlight, plenty of hydration, and cooler conditions after the five hours.  That is, provided you are healthy and acclimatized.  Such temperatures will result in significant death tolls among the elderly, but do not necessarilly render the areas uninhabitable.

    As the extent of such 35plus Tw areas increases, however, the prospect of Tw significantly greater than 35 C, or extending through most of any given 24 hour period increased, and that will render the areas uninhabitable for practical purposes, and certainly by 12 C, large portions of the Earth's surface will be uninhabitable in the summer (or for the tropics, spring and autumn) seasons.  10 C represents a convenient intermediate benchmark to express this idea more simply.  If you want to insist on the 7 C value, however, I will not object - but there is no basis for a claim of uninhabitability at 4 C.

    Note, even at 12 C, a significant part of the Earth will remain inhabitable, and much more of it on a seasonal basis; which by it self is sufficient to refute Coral Davenport's claim. 

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Coral Davenport is a journalist for one of the world's most influential newspapers. Therefore, it would be extremely beneficial if you could communicate your concerns to her. The more journalists know about the science of climate change, the better off we will all be. 

  12. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    Tom Curtis@2

    At around 10o C above preindustrial temperatures, part of the tropics will become uninhabitable to humans without specific protection...

    You made a typo, that is important to explicitly corrrect here. Should be "around 4o C" I think.

  13. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    In the video, at 4:08 , Coral Davenport says (with ums, ahs and other redundancies and interjections excluded):

    "The specific marker that a lot of scientists and scientific institutions have put forth is the warming atmosphere beyond 3.7 degrees farenheight [2o C] on average.  That is the point at which a lot of scientists say we will be irrevocably locked in to a future of these climate impacts, and we're at the point right now where scientists say a lot of that is already baked in.  There was a point in the climate debate when it was about how do we keep from getting there.  At this point, in terms of the emissions that are already out in atmosphere, and the rate of emissions being produced today, scientists are saying we are probably set to go past that tipping point, and the debate is really about how do you keep it from getting far, far worse.  How to you keep the planet inhabitable by humans."

    That is inaccurate on several counts.  First, it is not clear that we are past the point where a realistic global emissions policy will prevent an average rise of temperatures above 2o C.  We may be past the point were the political process will get us a policy that will achieve that, but we should distinguish what is technically feasible and what is simply a matter of inertia and unwillingness to treat the issue with sufficient seriousness by politicians internationally, lest we justify the inertia of the policians based on that inertia itself.

    Second, neither 2o C nor 1.5o C (which a substantial body of scientists believe is the relevant limit) is a known tipping point.  Nor are either the point where it is known with certainty that there will be significant harmful impacts from global warming.  Rather, both are reasonable estimates of the temperature beyond which it is likely the impacts of global warming will by significantly harmful, and likely that we will may pass any tipping points.  If we keep below those thresholds, on the other hand, it is most likely that we will not have passed any tipping points, and that harms will be small relative to the range of climate impacts from a stationary climate (ie, on in which temperatures have not been rising).

    Third, however, and most significantly, there is no possibility that the emission of fossil fuels and cement will bring the planet to a point at which it is uninhabitable by humans.  That is not great news.  At around 10o C above preindustrial temperatures, part of the tropics will become uninhabitable to humans without specific protection (cooling suites, or significant respites in air conditioned areas for significant periods, etc) for several weeks a year on average.  That is a circumstance well worth avoiding.  Somewhere between 4o C and 10o C we will pass a point where the burden of global warming is likely to bring about a collapse of our civilization, with a consequent loss of life in the billions due to the collapse of global trade.  But the debate is not, or should not be about these outer limits which we will explore only if we do effectively nothing about AGW (something that would require a reversal of current policy and technical trends).  Rather, it is about how close to the 2o C (or 1.5o C) we can keep the rise, and how quickly can be bring global temperatures back below those limits, given that we overshoot.

    Coral Davenport is wrong to suggest that human inhabibility is in anyway a plausible consequence of global warming (except as restricted to specific areas at the outer limits of potentical temperature increase); and wrong also to suggest that once we go past 2o C the debate is suddenly about keeping below a much higher limit that essentially lets poluters of the hook.

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Please share your oncerns with Coral Davenport. Climate change is one of her beats.

  14. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    Congratulations, John, and welcome to the "other" colonies.  

    As to Vegemite, you may wish to latch on to our native sandwich spread delicacy:  Nutella!  It's equally nauseating, so you should feel right at home! 

  15. 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #37

    The cartoon of the week has layers of meaning - I have a CO2 monitor, and know how to use it, but I do not have a bell jar like the one pictured. However, a lone person in a standard SUV, with windows closed and no other ventilation, will quickly drive CO2 levels to 3-5 times outdoor 400+ppm. At those levels, cognitive function is heavily impacted, and in no good way. For a human with extended time in such an environment, "CO2 as plant food" gains new meaning, since vegetative brain function may be all thats left. This might could explain some of the crazy...

  16. The Madhouse Effect, a review

    We need more of this. Not only for the comic relief. Jokes are often more effective than dry fact based communication. Very Serious Persons dont like to look silly.

    (Me I got convinced of the seriousness of the threat 20y ago when I met an atmospheric scientist on a bus: I made a denialist joke, but he didnt find it funny. Instead his jaw dropped. Within a fraction of a second the expression on his face told me, this is dead serious stuff.)

  17. Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class

    Correction regarding Tom Harris' background.
    Mr. Harris was not removed from Carleton Umiversity.  He left after four terms. Owing to the fact there was such an uproar about the course subject matter when it was found to contain a number of errors and exaggerations (according to a CASS report) and some Carleton professors described the course as a "a source of embarrassment to the institution", it was mistakenly believed to be true. 

  18. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    michael sweet @33

    Pardon my pessimism.  All right, I'll concede that all the solutions for decarbonizing the global economy are known.  They just need to be implemented on a world-wide scale.  Does that sound better?!

    We are therefore in a race.  On the one hand we have to transition to a zero-carbon economy.  On the other hand, the climate is changing for the worse at an ever-increasing rate.  There are two possible outcomes.  In the first scenario we transition to a zero-carbon economy in time to avoid the worst climatic effects.  In the second scenario the climatic changes are too fast and disrupt our economic transition, which leads to a collapse of our global civilization; a few local civilizations are left struggling on here and there.

    Which scenario is the most likely?  The problem with the first scenario is that an enormous amount of social inertia has to be overcome even before we can implement the necessary changes.  This is the main reason for my scepticism.  But like any science-minded person I will change my mind if the situation changes.

    As a postscript I'd like to add that, while I'm pessimistic, I still think it is essential that we fight like hell to change our attitude to the economy.  It simply must be decarbonized.  But I'm a tired old man.  Please forgive me if I just sit back and watch what happens.

  19. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    Eclectic @23

    I would say the media is tilted towards the sceptics by a good 45 degrees minimum!

    I agree with your comments on the Murdoch press. They present pure, one sided propaganda that is quite misleading. That’s being polite about it.

    However even the so called liberal media or "in the middle" media is tilted towards the sceptics. The liberal media in my country goes at great pains to give sceptics 50% of column space on climate change opinion articles, even though sceptical climate scientists are in a minority. This is important because this false balance creates an impression with the public that scientific opinion is split 50 / 50 when it isn't!

    Of course sceptics should get some space in the media, because of freedom of speech and balance, but they are over represented.

    I just want to back to the Murdoch press and conservative leaning media like Fox. It is obvious I dislike their views on climate change, and other matters, however I'm also a strong supporter of freedom of speech. What really annoys me about their climate sceptical commentary is how misleading it is. You have talked about this.

    Another example is an article I read in the conservative leaning media highlighting a paper on low climate sensitivity, without mentioning these papers are in a minority, and are based on a very risky set of assumptions on the so called pause. It all creates an impression that the science community has moved on and that climate sensitivity is now accepted as being low, when this is absolutely not the case.

    If the "warmists" misrepresented research like this, the media as a whole would roast them alive, figuratively speaking. Warmists look at the weight of evidence, and the most thorough research papers.

    I’m just interested in the truth about climate change. I’m 100% sure we have a big problem, but I’m open minded. It would be good if there was some alternative explanation that recent warming is natural, but there isn’t one that I can see which only leaves the greenhouse effect. I have a decent general education.

    So if I can see this why can’t the conservative media? As I have said previously I think its a combination of things to do with selfishness, vested interests, dislike of big government, and a conservative tendency towards fixed beliefs based somewhat on emotive reactions. It’s like the conservative media have made a decision to distrust the science as its “inconvenient” to them for all these reasons, and have decided to declare war on climate science, and a war where the ends justify the means. It’s gone crazy.

  20. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    Welcome to Mason, John!  Those of us in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences (and our Climate Dynamics PhD) have a long history contributing to WCRP, IPCC, Clivar, etc.  Although I have just gone emeritus, I look forward to helping out in any ways that I can. 

  21. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    Many congrats John. I thoroughly enjoyed my time doing my PhD at the Harvard Smithsonian though that was back when Carter was president. I'm sure you will have a great time. We had an interesting discussion one night about how much you could make if you perjured your scientific integrety. This was long before the diagraced Wille Soon joined.

    I'm sure you will find it great the DC area is wonderful, but the traffic is worse than it was in the '70s!

  22. The Madhouse Effect, a review

    talk about a madhouse! i am a narcissist. i consume resources and create pollution to enable my non-negotiable lifestyle! this behavior supports drilling, fracking, fossil fuel transportation by rail, truck or pipeline (including on native lands)... and agw.

  23. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Digby,

    I think you are being needlessly negative.  It will be more difficult to make some products fossil fuel carbon free than others.  So what if steel requires carbon?  As Scaddenp and Tom Curtis point out above, biochar will make steel as good as fossil fuels.  This would remove carbon from the atmosphere when making steel using electric arc furnaces using renewable energy.  This techology has already been developed.

    Once you have jet fuel from seawater , you can make any other hydrocarbon you want.  Ocean freighters can burn jet fuel in their current engines without any modifications (Jacobson prefers hydrogen).  Cost is estimated at US$3-6 per gallon (US$.75-1.5 per liter), less than gasoline in many European countries today.  Plastics can also be made through this process using CO2 from the atmosphere (the Navy apparently found it was cheaper to get the CO2 from the ocean than from the air).  I have seen articles that use plant based feedstock to manufacture plastic also.

    There is no question that it will be a big job to convert our entire economy to a new source of energy.  On the other hand, there is no doubt that fossil fuels will run out in 200 or 300 years even if we burn all the carbon in the ground.  Do you expect our decendants to live in caves and revert to stone tools after all the carbon is gone??  I do not know anyone who has suggested that will happen  We all expect them to figure out a new source of energy.  We have that source availabe to us right now, it is wind and solar.

    Currently business uses fossil fuels because they are the cheapest.  Wind and solar have very recently become the cheapest source of electricity.  As they are built out they will be able to replace fossil fuels for industrial heat and other uses. The best path forward is to convert the easiest energy first to renewables: electricity.  Then you start to work on the harder processes.

    Jacobson has demonstrated that there are multiple ways to get to fossil fuel free economies.  There are multiple technologies for all of the objections that you have raised.  I like the idea of jet fuel from sea water.  Jacobson likes hydrogen power (with the hydrogen generated by electrolysis from renewable power).  In 30 years we will see which tenchnologies win out.  I doubt anyone today can predict exactly which technologies will be most successful.  Just 10 years ago no-one thought that wind and solar would be as cheap as they are today.  

    Once renewable energy dominates the electricity market it will start to penetrate other markets.  An example of this is the manufacture of aluminum in Iceland using renewable electricity from geothermal energy.  Iceland is cutting into the market for Alminum made with coal electricity from Australia.  Don't expect industrial manufacture of hydrogen (or jet fuel) until the electricity market has gone mostly renewable.

    It is difficult to keep a positive face on in response to political stupidity, especially in the USA.  It seems to me that we have no other choice, if we lose hope why should we build out renewables?  The sooner we go full bore on renewables the less damage we will have to deal with.  If we built wind generators like tanks were built during WWII we would emit much less CO2 in a decade.

    The great positive is that renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels!!  Ten years ago it looked like the only way to get widespread acceptance of renewables was if the government heavily taxed fossil fuels.  Those taxes have always been a political long shot.  Now renewables compete without subsidy in many locations.  And the price of renewables continues to go down!  Walmart, Costco and Ikea are putting solar panels on top of their stores!  Other major companies are loooking at solar because they save so much money.  

    As renewables gain market share it will become easier to raise taxes (or lower subsidies) on fossil fuels.  Already the coal companies in the USA are going bankrupt!!  Coal power plants are shutting down.  There is discussion of making coal companies pay fair fees to mine on public land.  As more wind and solar are built out it will become uneconomic to frak for gas.  Unfortunately, nuclear was the most expensive power and is being eliminated along with coal.  The response must be to build out renewable energy faster.

    It is difficult to respond to a post like yours that lists multiple questions about many technologies.  If you separate your questions into smaller chunks it is much easier to have a discussion.

  24. The Madhouse Effect, a review

    Regarding "Mann's unfortunate first hand experience" - I actually preordered the book from the organisation which was initially founded to help defend Dr. Mann (here's the article), namely the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund (CSLDF). (A signed copy is available, too).

    I'm indebted to them myself when I was dealing with oil/gas industry threats over publizing a presentation by Dr. Kevin Trenberth. They gave me sound legal advice.

  25. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    Nigelj @22 , the playing field is more than just "tilted" by the  sensationalism-and-controversy tendencies of innocently (and inappropriately) "balanced" or "equal time" reporting by the media.

    The Murdoch press [most particularly] engages in active forcing of the denier messages.  Op-Eds of gross falsehood in the WSJ  (far too grossly false, to pass as editorial failure of supervision).   And the use of a spurious "expert" to completely misrepresent and misreport the considered consensus of thousands of true experts (in a recent case).  Many other cases could be mentioned.   We are not talking of mild "spin", but of heavy-handed propaganda combined with suppression of truth.

  26. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    michael sweet @31

    I'd like to think one can still manufacture all of today's products, including EVs, in a zero-carbon economy.  I've also read about Jacobson's work, but let me put it this way: I'm sceptical!  And then you get comments such as Jim Eager's that some products can never be carbon-free.  What do you say to that, Michael?

    I've read about such things as electric-arc furnaces, carbon-absorbing cement, and alternatives to jet fuel.  I looked at a shipping website and discovered that the shipping people are also concerned about their fossil-fuel habit and would like to kick it, but find it difficult.  I know fossil fuel is needed for plastics, and I assume this doesn't mean having to burn the stuff.

    Regarding jet fuel, for example, I read about a US experiment where ammonia was used to power both a helicopter and an aircraft.  Ammonia can be manufactured using renewable sources of electricity, which makes it carbon-free.  Then I was told (at SkS) that more-advanced synthetic fuels are being investigated, presumably different from biofuels.  So there are hints of a solution but there remain intractable difficulties with transport.  By contrast, generating electricity using renewable sources is simple.

    So, to sum up, I'm sceptical that we can really decarbonize the global economy.  I'll believe it when I see it.  And finally, I think it's all theoretical anyway.  Climate change will clobber us first.

  27. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    The Vegemite is easy to find in Rodman's, because of the biohazard tape around those shelves.

  28. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    Not to worry! Vegemite is available at Rodman's in Bethesda and Friendship Heights. Ye shall not suffer!

  29. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    Eclectic @20

    "I do not know whether there are many more news stories that promote climate change as a problem than vice versa."

    Fair point, but I’m not sure numbers matter too much, within reason. It's about style and volume. The warmists and sceptics are quite different.

    For example the media stories "promoting" climate change generally tread a careful line and are reasonably restrained in their language, non political, and science based. They usually at least acknowledge that there are also sceptical views. Even "Al Gore" generally stayed with the science, and his biggest alleged sin was to suggest Greenland may be melting faster than the IPCC was estimating at the time. (Interestingly it looks like he was actually right).

    The “warmists” have to tread carefully because the slightest mistake, or dishonesty and they get absolutely torn apart by the media. Look at the way the IPCC was attacked over some single error over ice loss in the Himalaya mountains. Climate scientists have also been sued or taken to court over the most incredible nonsense without any foundation, and it ammounts to harassment.

    As a result the climate “warmists” are very low key, qualified, and restrained, and this can become a little boring and they may not get so much attention or be so effective at selling their message. That of course has been the sceptical lobbies intention all along, in attacking them as viciously as possible to cower them into submission.

    Now compare this with the climate sceptics in the media. They are quite unbalanced and cherrypick only those few science papers they perceive helps their case, and quote them in a way that implies this is what the entire climate community are saying about everything. The sceptics are not shy about accusing climate scientists of being liars (without providing a shred of proof) and politicising the thing by suggesting climate change is all politically driven by liberals, or the Chinese (according to Donald Trump), or socialists (again without a shred of proof).

    And the media have been very reluctant to take these more outspoken sceptics to task, and one has to ask why? Well the media are dominated by corporate ownership, who may not be too keen to embrace the climate change message. The media also benefit from inflammatory opinions, as this attracts an audience like a magnet. So the media indulge the sceptics, and while they may be a minority, they are very loud!

    The playing field is tilted towards the sceptics.

  30. One Planet Only Forever at 07:19 AM on 10 September 2016
    Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    Art@17,

    You stated: "I can't say, but my guess is that intelligence and education levels, regardless of political orientation, are net beneficial to global climate mitigation efforts."

    As I stated in my earlier comment the required action is "...raising awareness and improving the understanding of things." With that in mind, I suggest that this very recent BBC item should allow you to gain a better understanding, and that you will understand that higher education or intelligence does not ensure a person will choose to use their knowledge and ability to participate in advancing humanity to a lasting better future for all.

    There is ample evidence that many very intelligent and aware people choose to believe that the freedom of everyone to do whatever they want will advance humanity to a lasting better future. More correctly, they personally desire the benefit they can get in their lifetime from trying to get away with unjustifiably promoting and excusing the belief that any restriction on a person's freedom of attitude and action is bad. They encourage attitudes and activity regardless of their ability to understand how some desires are only going to benefit a portion of humanity in their lifetime, they are not going to advance humanity to a lasting better future for all. And it is more difficult to change the minds of such 'intelligent and determined' people.

  31. An update on methane emissions from fracking (in the US)

    EPA underestimation of US CH4 emissions is compounded by underestimation of the effects those emissions have on global warming.

    The EPA insists that in determining the effects of CH4 emissions should be calculated on the basis of the GWP of CH4 calculated over a 100 year period. This dictate has been adopted by most climate scientists.

    It ignores the fact that CH4 emissions to the atmosphere have a life of no more than 12 years, during which time its GWP = >85, considerably higher than the 34 ascribed to CH4 by the IPCC (assuming a 100 years life span) or the more common 27 used by the EPA.

    There is no scientific justification for selecting a 100 years span when calculating the GWP of CH4 to determine its contribution to global warming. However, a political imperative, the need to minimise the effect of US CH4 emissions on global warming, most certainly does exist and is addressed by minimising the GWP of CH4.

    Some readers may think that science is about determining the truth, not manipulating it for the sake of political expediency.

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] Please document the sources of the information that you have presented and the bases for the assertions you have made. In other words, pretend that you are a scientist and not just a blowhard.

  32. The Madhouse Effect, a review

    Here is what I posted about "The Madhouse Effect" on Amazon:

    Get mad with a good laugh!

    An accomplished climate scientist - Dr. Michael Mann - and a likewise accomplished cartoonist - Tom Toles - teamed-up and wrote a book about human-caused climate change. But, this is not your "run-of-the-mill" climate science book! Instead, it comes with a twist as its title "The Madhouse effect - How Climate Change Denial is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics,and Driving Us Crazy" and cover picture make clear.

    Even though the very real greenhouse effect - and why there's really no doubt that we are greatly enhancing it - get explained in some details, it also shows why one can be forgiven to think more in terms of a "Madhouse effect". Some reactions to the scientific findings can after all only be described as "mad" as they defy both logic and scientific evidence. Mann and Toles include many examples how politicians in the US go on witch-hunts and stage mock "scientific" congressional hearings with the sole purpose to discredit scientists and their findings. Michael Mann's unfortunate first-hand experience with this provides lots of material right from the source and as a reader one can only wonder how politicians doing stuff like this can get away with it easily and more than once. If this weren't happening in a "madhouse" of sorts, they should be investigated for abusing their power and for derelection of duty, shouldn't they?

    Once you start thinking about the implications, some of the book's content can make you quite mad and justifiably so. But the authors also present an escape hatch from the madhouse in the last chapter where they summarise some already available solutions and entice readers to get involved. Toles' to the point cartoons liberally sprinkled throughout the book add some much needed comic relief, overall ensuring a very engaging read.

  33. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    Tom Curtis is right. As well a being off-topic, the racial/IQ "thing" is really old news - it was being researched and quoted back in the 1960's and prior.  And even then, it was pointed out that the same racial groupings that  "did poorly" in testing in the USA , were not doing poorly in Brazil.   Interesting, and probably complex/multifactorial - but definitely off-topic.

    Scaddenp has his finger on the point that Art Vandelay seemingly found most mention-worthy.   That is : it is not intelligent conservatives who are the problem, but people whose emotions rule their intellect and whose "motivated reasoning" allows them to create and believe lies.  And especially such people, when they have the wealth and power to wield a hefty amount of propaganda to manipulate the average citizen.

    Art Vandelay, you raise an interesting second point - about whether (in American terminology) Conservatives and Progressives seek out their own comfortable and non-challenging news media.

    It is highly likely that is the case, for those at each extreme of the spectrum.  But I am reasonably sure there's a great number of people in the middle, who don't have strongly polarised views ( and who don't have much knowledge of climate matters, or much interest in the longer term aspects which are not immediately affecting them ).   These "middle-grounders" will naturally be influenced by their everyday exposure to the media they happen to encounter.   An influence that accumulates subtly over many years - an influence which will be all the more successful as it promotes the soothing comfortable idea that there is nothing to worry about now and nothing needing doing about (non)problems now.   Just relax, kick the can down the road, and concentrate on Presidents, Taxes, and Kardashians.

    I do not know whether there are many more news stories that promote climate change as a problem than vice versa.

    But it is general human nature that a comforting lie is received with greater weight than 7 discomforting truths (especially truths which are not standing on the front doorstep).   And that is why the influence (in English-speaking countries) is very great, from the "denier" mainstream media - such as Rupert Murdoch's extensive media empire which is widespread.   And influential because it is widespread.

  34. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    To the moderators, I put it to you that Art Vandalay's second link @17 is clearly off topic, not to mention political.  I am advising you of this in lieu of responding as I am sure SkS does not want to become embroiled in a race discussion.  But neither am I prepared to leave that link uncritiqued if it is allowed to stand, given the overwhelming immorality that is racism.

    Moderator Response:

    [RH] Agreed.

  35. It's cooling

    plato525 @304, here is the video I think you have in mind:

    I am not sure as to whether there is or not a SkS blog post discussing this video.

  36. It's cooling

    Where do I find your video experiment with the black color solution that was added to water in a glass container to show the amount of CO2?

  37. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    @11 ubrew12

     Don't believe everything you read. Just because politicians say something doesn't necessarily mean they are representing the people's views. As often as not they are engaged in persuasive speech rather than reflective speech.

    I happen to live right square in the middle of the US heartland, and sitting right on top of the Oklahoma City oil field. I even grow okra! If you approach the conversation correctly, you can gain significant traction. I have yet to find a single "baked" in denialist. Rather, more often than not you'll find more of a pragmatist view.

    Surprisingly easy to explain systems science views on biological cycles to people here. Just add CO2 to that conversation, where AGW is an example of a symptom instead of a cause, and they usually end up on your side. Also easy to explain why even 2 or 3 degrees is so bad, on a day it is 105 already. Just say something like, "I know that jerk Imohofe likes to deny a few degrees of warming is important, but can you imagine what even a couple degrees would do on a day like today? People start dieing!"

    Now it is possible that people here just naturally listen to another conservative farmer like me more than they would another "Damn Arrogant Liberal City Folk from back East". It's also possible they are just being polite to a neighbor. But I don't see at all the attitude you described. In fact the ONLY one I ever talked to here that displayed the attitude you describe was an exec from a gas company I was trying to lease some land from to use in Oklahoma's No Till and Carbon Sequestration Program.

  38. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    You'll certainly be able to observe firsthand how climate denial is 'baked' into America's conservative identity politics.  People feel assaulted by modern life, pine for 'heartland values', and are fed a well-funded concoction of selective 'memories' involving religion, guns, patriotism, white patriarchy, free markets and climate denial.  To just argue climate alone is like trying to pick the okra out of gumbo.

  39. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    I would bow to any data from published papers, but it is my personal experience that highly intelligent people are also extremely talented in rationalizing their beliefs/values. It takes a kind of discipline to let data inform your opinions and it doesnt come naturally to anyone, especially where any kind of stake has made in a position. The "Gone Emeritus" phenomenum might be evidence of this.

  40. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    chriskoz, my professional focus is fully on social science now. Having a background in physical science is certainly helpful in understanding and communicating climate science - but the work I'll be doing at 4C (and the research I've conducted over the last few years for my PhD) has been focused on the psychology of climate change.

  41. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    Eclectic @14 said - "My earlier comments were in no way related to ethnicity or particular intelligence [ please note that "morons" was your choice of wording, which I take as you being somewhat hyperbolical ! "

    To clarify, my choice of wording was inspired by recent studies, including one from Brock University, Canada, that extablished a link between political orientation and IQ, and of course this paper from Lewandowsky -http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0075637, linking political beliefs with conspiracy theorism.

    (snip)

    Whether such links exist or not is of academic interest to some, but I would argue is also highly unconstructive.

    And some academics have identified dangers with this type of research- http://judgybitch.com/2013/05/20/harvard-phd-student-finds-a-correlation-between-race-and-iq-harvard-students-says-even-if-its-true-it-shouldnt-be-a-topic-of-research-everybody-is-wrong/

    But that aside, as has been pointed out by Eclectic and OPOF, there is also considerable diversity within the conservative demographic, and using my own municipality as an example here, which is highly conservative; education levels are above the national average and average household income is also well above average.

    It's also true to say that not all conservatives deny the impact of human activities on the climate system. As has been pointed out there is a diversity of opinion, which unsurprisingly I get to hear on a daily basis.

    On the point of whether intelligent conservatives pose a greater threat to climate action than do less intelligent conservatives, I can't say, but my guess is that intelligence and education levels, regardless of political orientation, are net beneficial to global climate mitigation efforts.

    On the topic of this thread, my only other contribution is the observation that people tend to gravitate towards the media that best represents their ideology, so I would question the extent to which media bias makes a significant contribution to climate change contrarian views. This is also supported by the fact that there are many more news stories that promote climate change as a problem than vise versa.

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Fixed Links. Please use the Link icon in the comment editor to create these yourself.

    [RH] Off-topic deleted.

  42. Researching climate change communication at George Mason University

    4C@GMU is a long way from your background in solar physics, John. Congratulations on the courageous move.

    Do you think you still be able to apply your original expertise in your research, or have you switched your professional focus completely to social sciences now, and there is no overlap of it with solar physics?

  43. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Digby,

    Mark Jacobson and his group think all energy to support a modern economy can be generated using renewable fuels. They have won several major awards for their work including the Cozzarelli prize for best paper in 2015 from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  They could not have received that award if the editors did not think their plan was well founded.  Their publications have hundreds of citations.   Most of the people who cite them agree.  Anyone who wants to claim that great sacrifices must be made to reduce carbon pollution has to say what they think is incorrect with Jacobsons' plan.

    Some of their examples seem difficult to me (I am not an expert).  However, there are alternatitives that could work instead.  For example, Jacobson suggests that hydrogen powered airplanes could be developed.  An alternative would be biofuels (which have their own problems as Tom suggested) or the US Navy has developed techniques to make jet fuel from sea water and electricity.  The primary issue with making fuel from CO2 is cost.  How much do we really need to fly, what are we willing to pay? Jacobson does not like these options because he feels that any combustion of organic materials makes too much pollution.  Society may decide that the pollution is worth the lower cost.

    If people decide they want to stop carbon pollution it is possible to transition to a renewable economy.  If most people install solar panels their electricity will be cheaper than it currently is.  Some portions of the economy will be better, for example air pollution and ensuing health issues (over 13,000 people are killed each year by coal pollution in the USA alone)  will decrease a great deal, others like air travel might be more expensive.  Currently in China air pollution reduces everyones lifespan by at least 5.5 years.  What are they willing to spend to live 6 years longer?  They currently install more renewable energy than any other country.  As renewables continue to decrease in cost more will be installed.  Would you pay triple for air travel if it saved all the buildings and infrastructure between 6 and 30 feet above sea level? I would.

  44. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Digby Scorgie @29, sea and air transport are tricky.  They can definitely be replaced by carbon free alternatives (sail, and solar powered blimps respectively), but at much slower transport speeds and hence higher transport costs.  They can also be made carbon free by the use of biofuels, but there is reasonable doubt that enough biofuels can be produced to maintain current transport levels while also avoiding famine.

  45. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    So what is the consensus?  That in an "effectively" zero-carbon economy it is definitely possible (in theory, if not in practice) to manufacture all the products we manufacture today?  Does this include sea transport?

  46. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Jim Eager @25, OPOF and scaddenp have largely covered this.  In short, using electrical arc furnaces with the addition of carbon as a doping agent greatly reduces the CO2 emissions from steel production.  There is still some combustion of carbon, and some of the carbon included in the steel will combust during cutting, welding and grinding operations, not to mention while rusting.  However, the use of charcoal (or charcoal by a fancy name, ie, "bio-char") instead of coking coal to provide the carbon makes steel manufacture a net, short to medium term sink of carbon.  The majority of coal used in blast furnaces is combusted for heat, so use of charcoal is viable in terms of production quantities, but apparently, charcoal does not allow as readilly as coke, so there are some technical issues to work out to avoid loss of efficiency and/or steel quality.

  47. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Jim, well yes, but I am rather assuming that "Zero-carbon" is shorthand for zero CO2. Sure steel is iron-carbon alloy, but the CO2 emissions from steel making are from burning carbon as fuel and using CO as the reducing agent. The article outlined an alternative technology for that. Nothing to stop you using biochar for carbon addition.

  48. Conservative media bias is inflating American climate denial and polarization

    One Planet Only Forever @15

    Good comment. Maybe your post could be summarised as saying some people are selfish and greedy, and think short term. They have little concern for the future of the planet, humanity as a whole or in government initiatives to help people. There are indeed people like this, and it's a real problem.

    Some of these people figure in extreme political movements like the Tea Party. They are individual freedom focussed, rather than community focussed. Most people are in the middle and realise there has to be a balance of individual freedom and community restraint or government restraint, for the world to function in any reasonable form.

    The neoliberal "free emarket" market orthodoxy promoted by people like Reagon and Thatcher provides an economic theoretical system that justifies greed (self interest) and provides an argument for deregulating controls on economic behaviour and environmental quality. It's a reaction to over control of the 1950s and 1960s, and while some form of economic liberalism was needed, it has gone too far and it has gone very wrong.

    The trouble is neoliberalism or market fundamentalism is extreme and deeply flawed. But until the elite economics community and leading politicians of left and right acknowledge this, it will be used as a theory to justify greed, excessive self interest,  and minimisation of environmental rules.

    Some people will always be sceptical of climate science for a variety of reasons. They are beyond convincing, and are ruled by emotion and instincts, but there are people in the middle that can be convinced. I do agree with comments above that stigmatising them or yelling at them doesn’t help (although its really tempting). You take a polite approach in your post that is thought provoking and makes a strong point, without being inflammatory. I dont see what else we can do.

  49. One Planet Only Forever at 07:07 AM on 9 September 2016
    Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Jim Eager and others,

    "Zero-Carbon" does not mean no carbon in any from. It is just a marketing buzz term since that is what maketing today is all about, brevity in the hope of communicating broader meaning.

    The term means no net CO2 or other GHG emissions produced and accumulating in the recycling environment of the planet, particularly increases in the air and oceans.

    So adding the small amount of carbon into iron to make steel is totally OK in a "Zero-Carbon" economy, as is the making of plastics. Note that ensuring that human activity is sustainable with no accumulating damage done by the production, use or disposal of anything is a separate equally important aspect of the required advancement of human activity. It is actually the higher level requirement that CO2 emissions and deforestation and so many other activities would be a sub-set of.

  50. Range anxiety? Today's electric cars can cover vast majority of daily U.S. driving needs

    Scaddenp, the SciAm article you linked to addresses iron smelting electically instead of in a blast furnace, but turning iron into steel requires carbon, period. Adding carbon is what makes it steel. That said, there may be more efficient ways to add that carbon without by-emissions.

    While much work is being done on developing economic CO2-neutral cement, I fear full adoption will be a long way off in developing countries.

    As for electric heavy diggers, electically powered building-size draglines have been employed in large strip mines for many decades now.

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