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Comments 23551 to 23600:

23551. chriskoz at 12:12 PM on 11 August 2016
       Climate scientists make a bold prediction about sea level rise
       

       I haven't read (Fasullo 2016) but this explanation:

       the satellites began measuring in 1993, right after a large volcanic eruption (Mount Pinatubo). This eruption temporarily reduced global warming because particles from the eruption blocked sunlight. Just by coincidence, the timing of the satellites and the eruption has affected the water rise so that it appears to be linear. Had the eruption not occurred, the rate would have increased.

       is confusing, or even defies my logic. If the starting point of SLR curve in question is 2 years fter Pinatubo (which happened in 1991), which means it's a local minimum, then the tread calculated from such cherry picked start should be larger than the average trend after smoothing the variability. It's like cherry picking a strong LaNina starting year for the temp trend: the measured trend appears larger than the average. Opposite happens when deniers of statistics try to pick a strong ElNino year (e.g. 1998) as the starting year and to claim that global warming has "stopped".

       In our case herein, cherry picking 1993 (a local minimum) overestimates the trend. So how the statement "Had the eruption [local minimum] not occurred, the rate would have increased" makes sense?

23552. Haze at 11:48 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       scaddenp@14.  From your comment  "Keith - you seem to be saying that lives lost in evacuation dont count? How many would have died if the area had not been evacuated?

       You seem to have completely missed the point  on the evacuation made by keithpickering @2 who said:

       "Meanwhile, the evacuation from Fukushima — which was not necessary under IAEA guidelines — killed 1600 people needlessly. Final score: radiation 0; fear of radiation 1600.  At some point, we should hope that rationality overcomes irrationality. (My bold)

       I thought his original comment addressed your point quite adequately.

       A general comment the topic of intermittent power supply from renewables. The recent experiences in South Australia indicate that, as yet, renewables are not capable of maintaining the  power supply required by  that State.  Somewhat embarrassingly  the State Government had to  ask the owner of  amothballed gas fired power station to tum supply back on.  The report on this in The Australian Financial Review on July 14 2016, is, unfortunately, paywalled.  The headline and opening paragraphs of the article are below

       South Australia intervenes in electricity market as prices hit $14,000MWh

       "Turmoil in South Australia's heavily wind-reliant electricity market has forced the state government to plead with the owner of a mothballed gas-fired power station to turn it back on.

       The emergency measures are needed to ease punishing costs for South Australian industry as National Electricity Market (NEM) prices in the state have frequently surged above $1000 a megawatt hour this month and at one point on Tuesday hit the $14,000MWh maximum price.

23553. nigelj at 10:51 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       Michael Sweet @ 12

       Thanks for the Jacobson website link. 

       Firstly I live in New Zealand,  and we already use hydro, wind, and geothermal with some reasonably minimal gas backup. I'm all for renewable energy and support our system. Nuclear would be crazy for us, and ideally we should aim to get rid of the gas backup as well.

       I support renewable energy, but Im not going to be mindless and uncritical about it. I was just making the point that all countries are different, and that I didn't see a need to totally rule out nuclear in every situation.

       I clicked on spain on your map and the plan was for a lot of solar and wind. This could obviously work, anything is possible for a price, but they would have a lot of surplus generation in that wind power for cloudy days etc. But it can be done for a price.

       I would like to see their more detailed calculations on prices comparing renewables and fossil fuel options etc. I couldn't see anything on their website, and I'm not just going to take their word for it. Has their research been peer reviewed?

23554. Bob Loblaw at 10:23 AM on 11 August 2016
       Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
       

       old sage:

       If you want to argue "the greenhouse effect violates the second law of thermodyamics", then the proper place to do that is over on this thread. The last comment there was made in late 2014 (#1481), but you can read through the Basic and Intermediate tabs, then the comments, and then see if you have anything to say that hasn't already been debunked.

23555. scaddenp at 10:22 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       Michael, I am not sure you are right about observed lifetime. Bezau is still going after 47 years with no plans to shut it that I am aware of. I do agree though that most have not made it past 40.

       Keith - you seem to be saying that lives lost in evacuation dont count? How many would have died if the area had not been evacuated?

23556. Bob Loblaw at 10:15 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       michael sweet:

       I think you missed that keithpickering's cost estimates in paragraph 2 of comment #6 explicitly said "neglecting O&M". It's not fair that you start to include them ;-).

       As for ongoing costs, I know that Ontario's nuclear program found that some maintenance items they thought would be low cost turned out to be much greater than planned. A key factor was that pressure tubes become brittle over time (discussion here) and need replacing, and this happened a lot faster than originally expected. A recent announcement for one plant has a $16 billion price tag on refurbishment. The article says:

       "OPG estimates it would need between 7.2 cents-to-8.1-cents-per-kilowatt-hour to recover the total cost of the refurbishment, below current averages of 9.2 cents-per-kwh, but more than privately-owned Bruce Power will be paid under a new contract.

       ...but that's probably just "O&M", so it doesn't count, right?

23557. michael sweet at 09:18 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       Nigelj,

       Read the Jacobson website.  They have renewable energy plans for all the countries in the world.  Nuclear and fossil fuel backup is not needed.  The power is cheaper than fossil fuel power.

       Please provide links to support your claim that some countries cannot use renewable energy as described by Jacobson.  Please provide a link to support your claim that nuclear is cost effective in the long term.

23558. nigelj at 08:55 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       Keithpickering @2 and 6.

       Nuclear power does obviously have some risks. I do largely agree about Fukushima not killing anybody directly with radiation and the longer term cancer risk is said to be low, but they got lucky as it was only a partial melt down. Chernobyl was more drastic and has had more severe health problems, and has required permanent evacuations and a one billion dollar containment enclosure over the old reactor.

       Nuclear is arguably cost effective in the long term, but disposing of the waste remains a big problem.

       But no energy source is perfect. Maybe it all comes down to costs and benefits and also what resources specific countries have.

       For example some countries have windy climates and excellent potential for wind power with some limited backup storage or gas fired power. Other countries dont have much wind, and would need massive backup gas power, or alternatively massively expensive battery storage, or vast numbers of wind farms at great expense to provide backup for days where half the country has no wind. In this case Nuclear might be a better option.

23559. michael sweet at 08:48 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       Kiethpickering,

       It is difficult to respond to a Gish Gallop like yours.  I will address a few of the gross falsehoods but the majority will have to be let by.

       1) Nuclear plant life: At San Onofre power station, unit 1 ran from 1968-1992, 24 years not counting down time for maintenance.  Units 2 and three ran for 28 and 29 years not counting several years of down time.  Your claim of 60 year life for a nuclear power station is simply false.  Actual observed lifetime is 20-40 years.

       Current nuclear plants in the USA cannot operate at a profit just counting operation and maintenance costs.  The longer you count the costs the more money they lose.

       The Georgia plants are currently billing their customers for the finance costs, the plants would never have been started without customers being forced to finance this boondoggle.  Your costs "including financing costs" do not include the finance costs.

       You used cost figures from old solar and wind installations.  In wind and solar costs have fallen (unlike nuclear where the costs rise over time).  Current costs are much lower than your claims.

       The wind turbines in Denmark are not worn out.  They are being replaced by modern, larger units because the new units make more money (obviously the old units were built where the wind was best).  The old units are being refurbished and resold.  Your claim that the units have a 22 year working life is false.

       Jacobson et al have shown that renewable energy can reliably supply the entire power supply of the USA (they have plans for the entire world).  Can you provide a reference that suggests that nuclear can provide more than 10% of electricity alone?  How will nulcear power ever work in Syria and Iran (or all of Africa)?

       Current nuclear cannot survive without enormous subsidies, how could new build hope to compete?  So called "safe" generation III nuclear is proving to be unbuildable.  The Chinese are building generation II plants that have known safety defects.  Generation IV and V plants will not be designed before 2050.  

       \Gish Gallops like yours have destroyed my faith in nuclear engineers.  If you cannot support your technology without providing supportable data you should give up your argument.  Even Brave New Climate has few posts any more.  

       Realists understand that nuclear has failed.  It is too expensive.  (I do not even need to mention that it is also unsafe and there does not exist enough berrilium or uranium in the world to build all the units you propose).  

       The question is: What has  to be done to implement renewable energy according to a system similar to Jacobson's plan?  Nuclear is useless in a renewable energy system because the need is for peaking power, not baseload power.

23560. knaugle at 07:05 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       #8 Ger

       Sounds good on paper, but there is the issue of scale.  Also, don't think your alternatives will be too cheap to meter.  Some of what you propose will be really expensive.  Finally, renewables work great on clear windy days, but as always what about calm clear nights? 

23561. old sage at 06:32 AM on 11 August 2016
       Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
       

       Imagine a body radiating steadily in equilibrium with its energy source. Now throw an enclosure round it which reflects every other photon. For simplicity assume photons leave regularly of equal energy. Immediately after the first photon has been returned, the surface generator detects a rate of arrival of energy twice what it expected. The next photon out will therefore leave in half the time and so on. the balance will be maintained as before and no temperature difference arises. If you connect an identical body without  the enclosure, no energy transfer would occur. This is why GHG's do not raise earth energy, they are inert, undergo no changes and have to defy the Law of Thermodynamics to achieve it.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Creating a caricature of GHG theory and then criticizing it is hardly a valid form of argument.

23562. old sage at 06:11 AM on 11 August 2016
       Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
       

       I haven't posted here for years but I re-iterate that dry gases in the atmosphere do not radiate significant energy - where can it come from?  Only when aggregated in their billions do molecules gather sufficient energy to radiate. Even then, the process takes place at the discontinuity between a body - solid or liquid - in a depth of a handful of molecules. No radiation penetrates far into the solid earth's surface and likewise any that emerges comes from a thin surface skin. I'm sorry, the accepted science of climate regulatio in my days has been forgotten by a generation lost in inappropriate minutiae. It is the dynamic operation of cloud cover which regulates energy getting into earth's envelope and it is urbanisation and drainage which is restricting water vapour - and hence cloud cover - so giving rise to climate change.  It's  not difficult.

23563. One Planet Only Forever at 06:05 AM on 11 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       The Clexit group expression of concern for the suffering of poorer people if fossil fuel burning is targetted for rapid reduction is misleading.

       A fundamental concept of Kyoto was that the already wealthy and fortunate are to terminate their pursuit of benefit from burning fossil fuels first and fastest, and assist the less fortunate to rapidly transition to a sustainable better circumstance.

       If it makes sense for the poorest to temporarily benefit from burning fossil fuels as a stage of their development transition then that burning should obviously provide no benefit for anyone already more fortunate. However, in many cases it makes no sense to have burning of fossil fuels be a step in the advancement of circumstances of the least fortunate to a lasting better future.

       The ultimate criticism of the Clexit group is that their desires are not justified in light of the developed best understanding of what is going on and the changes required to advance humanity to a lasting improved future for all. They are clearly trying to appeal to people who are willing to be easily impressed into a belief the is not justified, people who resist understanding that the advancement of humanity to a lasting better future for all is the definition of the Common Good that is the only way to evaluate the legitimacy or acceptability of a desire.

       Clearly, any socio political economic system that encourages people to allow their personal desires to trump the understood requirement to focus on limiting their actions to things that will advance humanity to a lasting better is a barrier to the advancement of humanity. And demands that people participating in efforts to advance the understanding of what is going on should 'stick to the science' can also be understood to be part of the problem.

23564. Ger at 03:53 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       Who needs the always on base-load nowadays? Plants can install cogeneration, large consumers as a Google, GM buy there own renewable energy directly. Consumers can be fitted with Solar panels on roofs and backup batteries or get an EV, HEV, BEV to function as backup.

       And coal can be replaced by bio-coal, Refuse derived fuels.

       And NG can be replaced by reformed and gasified (agri)-residues + RDF.

       And excess or over-supply of wind, solar can go the way 'power to gas'; gas being a mix of Methane formed by CO2 + H2 and Hydrogen gas   

23565. jja at 03:52 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       I am glad to see this new form of kinetic storage called "Rail Energy Storage" being implemented in a pilot program for CAISO.  Currently it is limited in scale and used for frequency modulation but it has significantly higher potential, is scalable, and can provide nearly unlimited total potential throughout mountaneous regions, as opposed to pumped hydro which requires significan water volumes and high-altitude storage siting.
       
       http://www.utilitydive.com/news/first-of-its-kind-rail-energy-storage-project-targets-role-in-caiso-ancilla/417817/

23566. keithpickering at 03:50 AM on 11 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       michael sweet,

       The conventional method of determining electricity cost, LCOE, is designed for investment decisions, not policy decisions. The timeline for LCOE computation is an investor-driven 30 years. The problem is that some generation systems, like hydro and nuclear, last a lot longer than 30 years and have much greater social utility than the 30-year Wall Street timeline implies. From a policy standpoint, LCOE undervalues long-lifetime generators and overvalues short-lifetime generators (particularly wind, where enormous physical stresses on turbines sharply limit generator life).

       But climate change is a long-term problem, and we need to think long-term. So let's run the numbers. At Vogtle in Georgia, two AP1000 reactors are under construction with a currently estimated cost, including financing cost, of $15.7 billion. (Two other AP1000s in South Carolina are coming in cheaper.) Those reactors have a rated power output of 1117 MW each and a design lifetime of 60 years. With a capacity factor of 90% (typical for US nuclear plants) the lifetime electricity produced is 2 x 1117 x 60 x 8766 x .9 = 1.06 billion MWh — which is $14.7 per MWh (less than 2 cents per kWh, neglecting O&M).

       The world's largest PV generating station is Solar Star in California, completed at an overnight cost of $2 billion, with financing at 5.375% over 20 years, for a total capital cost including financing of $3.3 billion. Over the past 12 months Solar Star has produced 1.6 million MWh, so over its 25 year lifetime it can be expected to produce 40 million MWh, which is $82.5 per MWh.

       The largest wind farm on the Great Plains is Roscoe in Texas (Alta in California is larger, but it is dependent on specific and unusual geography), which cost $1 billion (apparently exclusive of financing) and produced 440,000 MWh in 2015. The average lifetime of wind turbines in Denmark is 22 years, so we can expect Roscoe to produce 9.7 million MWh in its lifetime for $103.3 per MWh.

       And then there's storage, which is the point of the OP. Electricity isn't just a product, it's a service, and a major part of that service is always-on 24/7 reliability. Providing that with wind and solar will not be easy, or cheap. Generation plus storage will always be more expensive than generation alone, and LCOE omits needed storage cost from the calculation for intermittant generators.

       The point is that when you look at things in the long term, nuclear is certainly no more expensive, and probably much less expensive, than wind or solar. Even with cost overruns. Yet we never hear anyone saying wind and solar are too expensive.

       Like the "nuclear is dangerous" myth, the "nuclear is expensive" myth was first pushed by fossil fuel interests, who knew where their competition lay. We don't have to take their word for it.

23567. chriskoz at 23:30 PM on 10 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       michael sweet@4,

       Your precisely point, is the only one missing in the OP.

       OP concentrates on emissions, because nukes must be replaced by renewables rather than FF as to keep emissions no higher than they are now. But the reality is opposite (and sober at the same time): cheap renewables displace other, more expensive utilities. And nukes are the first to go (not gas and not even coal), which proves the point that they are economicly the worst source of energy. Good luck, nuke proponents - your opinions face the reality check herein.

       It's sad, because if emissions were really the top priority, as should be IMO, then coal rather that nuke should go first. Oh well, we'll have to wait a bit longer (maybe very long until it's too late) before coal start going away under economic incentives we witness here, meanwhile we're cooking hot future for our descendants...

23568. Slioch at 22:05 PM on 10 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       When confronted by the kind of nonsense that Malcolm Roberts asserts,  ("there’s not one piece of empirical evidence ... showing that humans cause, through CO₂ production, climate change”), simply ask, "Could you describe one piece of empirical evidence that you consider should be present (if humans are causing climate change via CO2 emissions) that you consider is not present?"

       Almost invariably, you will be met with silence.

23569. michael sweet at 19:59 PM on 10 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       Keithpickering,

       The primary reason for the decline of nuclear power is that it is by far the most expensive source of energy.  Current plants under construction are grossly overbudget and years behind schedule.  Currently operating nuclear plants with no mortgage cost more to generate electricity than new built wind and solar plants.  Existing nuclear plants are now asking for billions of dollars in subsidies because they are not economic.  The money would be better spent building wind and solar.  

       Nuclear plants need to own up for the people they killed and continue to displace in Japan.  When you claim that no-one was killed you take yourself out of the argument.  160,000 people were forced from their homes.  1600 died.  Radiation continues to be dumped in the ocean, damaging fisheries.  Own up to the damage nulcear caused.

       Utilities do not care about these numbers when they review nuclear, their primary concern is cost.  Nuclear is too expensive.  

23570. Dipper at 16:33 PM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       thanks all for the references and data.

       I strongly suggest that scientists on this site do not equate themselves with economists, which is the implication of the original headline. There is a long history of economists proven to have been on the wrong side of the argument and it is a very bad idea for scientists to claim common cause with them.

23571. meher engineer at 16:06 PM on 10 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       The graphs in the writeup comparing various energy storage systems are useful. But the International Electrotechnical Commison seems to be a better source for them: see for example the two figures on page 31, for rated power, energy content and discharge time and page 32 for power density and energy density (in relation to volume) of Electrical Energy Storage technologies at  http://www.iec.ch/whitepaper/pdf/iecWP-energystorage-LR-en.pdf

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Link activated.

23572. ubrew12 at 12:01 PM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       To nitpick: "This purported fact [of zero rise]... is actually a fiction: the tide gauge data show [a rise]..."  Fictions can usefully entertain, broaden, teach or moralize more directly than nonfictions, so we've been telling them since caveman days.  But a lie has a sole purpose, to mislead.  It should be acceptable, especially this late in the game, to call Clexit's claim what it really is.  To do less out of courtesy may further confuse already confused readers brainwashed on fossil-fueled misinformation.

23573. keithpickering at 11:36 AM on 10 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       > the disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011 highlights how catastrophically dangerous nuclear power plants can be.

       The earthquake and tsunami killed 15,000 people, and the radiation from Fukushima killed zero. How much safer than zero deaths do you want nuclear to be?

       Meanwhile, the evacuation from Fukushima — which was not necessary under IAEA guidelines — killed 1600 people needlessly. Final score: radiation 0; fear of radiation, 1600. 

       At some point, we should hope that rationality overcomes irrationality.

23574. Paraquat at 11:14 AM on 10 August 2016
       As nuclear power plants close, states need to bet big on energy storage
       

       This is a good article, except that I don't really agree with the wording in this one sentence:

       "Currently in California, energy storage is effectively provided by fossil fuel power plants."

       A better way to put it might be that "Currently in California, there is insufficient energy storage available, and thus fossil fuel power plants are called upon to meet demand when sun/wind conditions are not favorable."

       The reason why I suggest the rewording is because a lot of people seem to think that somehow burning natural gas is not putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. I see on numerous blogs claims that switching to natural gas is "green." I personally don't agree that switching from nuclear to natural gas is "green," and indeed it will considerably increase our carbon (and methane due to leaks) emissions into the atmosphere.

23575. Tom Curtis at 09:04 AM on 10 August 2016
       Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
       

       dcordell @293, I think you will find that the figure above shows the fluxes in Gigatonnes of CO2, whereas the IPCC figure shows it in Gigatonnes of Carbon.  The fluxes from right to left in GtC are:

       7.9, 119.7, 122.7, 90.5 and 92.2

       

       According to the IPCC AR4 Fig 7.3 they are 8, 119.6, 122.6, 90.6 and 92.2, with the differences being down to rounding.

       

23576. Tom Curtis at 08:44 AM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       Dipper @10, the study in question was in Nature Climate Change.  The study found that the probability of once in a century flooding such as happened in Somerset, Devon, Dorset and Cornwall in 2014 had increased by 43% as a result of global warming.  Some reporters (but not the scientists) misreported that as AGW causing the floods.  The study found that due to the heightened risk from AGW, probably the peak river flows in 2014 were 21% higher then they would have been absent global warming, with a thousand houses at risk that would not have been.  Both values come with high uncertainties.

23577. Tom Curtis at 08:23 AM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       Dipper @4,

       1)  The OP made a comparison between Brexit and Clexit because that was a deliberate comparison made by the AGW deniers who have formed the "Clexit" movement, as seen in this press release.  The same AGW deniers, along with others, have welcomed Brexit itself as making action to oppose AGW more difficult.  Given that, it is very appropriate for this site to comment on that relationship.  When you do, some disturbing similarities are to be found, as noted in the first paragraph.  Those similarities commented on are in several instances, limited to some of the leaders of the Brexit campaign.  Presumably they are also found in a large number of people who voted "yes" to Brexit, but there is no implication from the OP that they are found in all, or even the majority of "yes" voters.  The relevance of the comparisons with some of the Brexit leaders is well documented in the OP, and so there is no reason to take exception to it.

       2)  Contrary to your assertion, the UK's consumption based emissions have declined relative to 1990 levels, and as of 2013 were at the fouth lowest level since 1990.  There decline has been nowhere near as sharp as the production based emissions, and until seven years ago, where in fact increasing, but that does not alter the fact that they have declined contrary to your claim:

       

       3)  While I have sympathy for the "British worker", the British worker has historically been a protected species.  In particular, during the period of the British Empire, the weaving of cotton clothe in India was prohibited by law, thereby forcing the cotton grown in India to be processed at greater expense in British factories.  The increase in employment for British workers that resulted came at a direct expense to Indian workers who were thereby impoverished.

       People who campaign against action on AGW out of similar concerns for "workers" are trying for a similar bargain.  In particular they are attempting to preserve an advantageous per capita emissions advantage for Western nations at the expense of workers in India and China and third world nations in general.

       If that were not the case, they would note that the same trade that is sustaining British consumption based emissions is rapidly driving down consumption based emissions in India and, especially China:

       

       That means the total global emissions change would be negative were it not for the strong growth in consumption world wide, including in the UK.  Economically, the UK as a whole is not being harmed by the change in emissions, and any disproportionate effects within the UK for a given social group are due to policital decisions within the UK and will not be harmed by tackling AGW (nor helped by Brexit).

23578. dcordell at 08:05 AM on 10 August 2016
       Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
       

       Your citation to the IPCC AR4 Figure 7.3 seems to be incorrect. The figure shown is shown here: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter7.pdf

        

       This figure states different numbers from yours. And I cannot find the 29 Gt/yr figure anywhere.

        

       Any further info or clarification is appreciated.

23579. Dipper at 04:38 AM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       ... and just to be really picky can you point to the research that confirms that recent floods in Somerset and the Lake District were caused by global warming and were not just part of the range of weather that naturally occurs?

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Perhaps you would like to first point to where the claim is made that such events were caused by global warming? Because warming increases the moisture capacity of air, the science position as laid out in exhaustive detail in the IPCC report, is that such events will become more likely. Except where sealevel rise is clearly a compounding factor, you cannot easily blame any individual event on global warming.

       The IPCC statement is: "It is likely that the number of heavy precipitation events over land has increased in more regions than it has decreased in since the mid-20th century, and there is medium confidence that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to this increase." The papers that form the basis of this conclusion are discussed in chapter 10.6 of AR5, WG1.

       Please do not derail this topic with an offtopic discussion and please state source of assertions so we dont have pointless discussion of strawman arguments.

23580. Dipper at 04:36 AM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       Paul D @ 8. Please can you point me to the right places to read up more about extreme weather. I'm naturally sceptical but having read up a bit can't see any viable alternatives to anthropogenic greenhouse gases causing observed warming but I'm still not convinced by extreme weather arguments.

       For instance, the poles are warming more than the equatorial regions so if, as I read, the earth's climate is driven by the difference in temperature between the equator and the pole why wouldn't melting at the ice caps reduce extreme weather?

23581. Paul D at 03:54 AM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       Dipper@4

       
       Extreme weather and warmer temperatures are effectively the same thing. It's all about how the energy that is slowed down from leaving the Earth by Green House Gases actually manifests itself around us. Extreme weather is a direct consequence of warming (as is drought). We have rain and winds because of warming and the fact that we have plenty of water around us!

       The BBC is broadcasting facts based on quite simple science.

23582. Paul D at 03:08 AM on 10 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       Dipper@4

       Actually it is EU legislation that requires coal fired power stations be taken off line and shut down. Even without UK legislation to cut CO2 emissions, EU legislation would still be closing the power stations.

       It's the Large Combustion Plant Directive.
       It was replaced with the Industrial Emission Directive this year.

       
       It should also be pointed out that UKIPs policy was to increase the use of coal.

23583. rocketeers2001 at 23:52 PM on 9 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       Regarding the sea level rise portion of the Clexit argument and this articles rebuttal....  
       
       Doing the math 1993 is 23 years ago.  4.3mm/yr x 23 yr = 98.9 mm of sea level rise, and rounding up, 10 cm.  Clearly not zero, but this articles rebuttal is a rate measured in millimeters per year and fractionally larger than the global average. That does not come across as alarming or a crisis.  10cm/23yr = X cm/100yr --> X=43.5cm sea level rise per century, less than half a meter.  However, combined with "king tide events lead to flooding of low lying areas, which is compounder when sea levels are further raised  by La Nina effects or local storms and waves. In the future, sea level rise may threaten to submerge the nation entirely as it is estimated that a sea level rise of 20-40 centimeters (8-16 inches) in the next 100 years could make Tuvalu uninhabitable." (1)
       
       The point then is that current sea level rise is already at half of the 20 cm low end of the estimated uninhabitable range. The current rate of sea level rise exceeds the 40 cm high end of that range sometime this century.

       Perhaps helpful in understanding the flooding concern is the geographic description of Tuvalu as an island group of nine coral atolls northeast of Australia and about halfway to Hawaii.  The total land mass is 26 sq km. The elevation  varies from 0m to 5m.  
       
       The max elevation occurs in two locations according to different sources. One is near the island of Fanafuti International Airport(2). The other is on the southernmost island of Niulakita (1). Most of the islands are much lower than 5m elevation. Six of the nine island have lagoons open to the ocean.  There are no freshwater rivers or lakes and groundwater is not drinkable (potable).  
       
       Sources:

       (All) CIA The World Factbook Online, Country Tuvalu, Section: Geography, accessed 8/9/2016. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tv.html

       (1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Tuvalu, Geography of Tuvalu section and Environment-climate change issues section, accessed 8/9/2016.

       (2) http://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=11846, Funafati High Point, Tuvalu, accessed 8/9/2016.

23584. José M. Sousa at 23:20 PM on 9 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       I agree with some of the previous comments that this is post is again somehow unfortunate. Mixing experts on the physical aspects of climate change  and "experts" in economics is not very wise since economics is subject to a lot of politics (I suggest this blog on a ongoing debate on the relevance of mainstream economics: https://rwer.wordpress.com/2015/10/11/key-member-of-swedish-academy-of-sciences-calls-for-immediate-suspension-of-the-nobel-prize-for-economics/ )

       Of course many prominent people on the Brexit side are deniers, but so what? This blog risks to turn away support from people who aren´t deniers but believe that the EU is no better place to defende the fight against climate change.

23585. Dipper at 22:39 PM on 9 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       owen is correct. A site like this should not start geting involved in comparisons with Brexit.

       It is worth noting that the UK has shut down all of its coal mines and is shutting down its coal-fired power stations all in the name of climate change whilst other nations are still opening new ones. The UK has cut down its emissions by taxing production so manufacturing moves overseas - there has been no reduction in consumption of carbon by the UK.

       This is why many who supported Brexit are fed-up with hearing about climate change. Because those proposing it are advancing their own personal agendas as world-saving politicians, all paid for by UK workers jobs whilst not making a molecule of difference to global emissions.

       Furthermore anyone who listens to or watches the BBC knows that every time it rains or the wind blows some "expert" pops up saying more extreme weather is a result of global warming. Whilst warming is proven and the link to human generated greenhouse gases is the only realistic explanation on the table, "extreme" weather is much more open to debate unless you are in the BBC in which case its a fact only a neanderthal would question.

       Stick to science please.

23586. nigelj at 07:53 AM on 9 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       owenmccormack @1

       The article is not mistaken. It never claimed that all climate sceptics or businesses are part of Brexit, simply that there appear to be a disproportionate number of climate sceptics in Brexit. The article also didn't claim all sceptics associate with Clexit, just that some well known ones do.

       Brexit is a complex combination of people often with competing agendas and beliefs. I agree the Brexit supporters do have some very valid concerns about the excesses of neoliberalism, but  some of their concerns are also mistaken. Its a very complex situation.

       The climate sceptics have attached themselves to Brexit as Brexit has taken a critical  stand against EU regulation and EU Parliament, and climate sceptics are sceptical of government regulation. However personally I dont think the things like pedantic rules about food safety mean the EU Parliament is a wrong idea. Regulation is about striking a balance which is always hard, but civilised countries still need regulation.

       Where Brexit has a point is concerns that blue collar workers are being left behind, and immigration has become problematic in some respects. But its an open question as to whether an independent Britain does any better solving these issues.

       But we have this  Clexit group of people and their climate scepticism. This is the main issue.

       Freedom of speeech may give them the right to their inane beliefs, but it becomes more serious when they tell lies about sea level rise in the Pacific Islands. These sorts of statements create confusion and doubt with the public.

       The media have not done a good enough job scrutinising climate denialists especially characters like Moncton, and consistently fail to ask the hard questions. (apart from this website). Politicians are no better, and have been entirely weak and have let an appalling standard of public debate that is full of missinformation gain traction, presumably due to their own lack of intellectual integrity, and pathetic fear of various lobby groups.

23587. Bob Loblaw at 07:19 AM on 9 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       Owen:

       I suggest that you follow the link in the second paragraph ("Graham Readfearn reported..."), which has more details about the specific group that has given themselves the monicker "Clexit". Dana's article doesn't say "everyone" fits the description - it only targets a specific group of self-identified individuals. That particular group clearly has the characteristics that dana has described, and they are firmly in the climate denial camp.

       It is your comment that is unfortunate and mistaken.

23588. owenmccormack at 02:13 AM on 9 August 2016
       Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
       

       This is an unfortunate and mistaken post. There are plenty of big business and climate sceptics on the remain side; not everyone who voted leave is a climate change denying  racist nationalist. In fact I would argue that a leave vote which dealt a blow to the neoliberal project is a better friend for climate campaigners than a remain vote which looked to corporations and big business interests in Europe.

23589. Haze at 19:44 PM on 8 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       Tom Curtis @19  I've just read a piece in The Guardian tht suggests Mr Culleton was ineligible at the time of declaration of the results which is without precedent and is probably not likely to be settled simply.  The URL is here

23590. Tom Curtis at 16:21 PM on 8 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       Chriskoz @18, sorry do disappoint:

       WA One Nation senator Rod Culleton has larceny conviction annulled

       Of course, the drama is not yet over in that he also faces charges in WA.  It is, however, a storm in a teacup given that if he is not elected, his place will be taken by his brother in law for one nation, and if he is unable to serve as Senator, by Rod Culleton's wife - all of which are from One Nation.

       So, fiasco yes - but not yet an implosion.

23591. chriskoz at 15:31 PM on 8 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       We already asserted above that small and exteremist (and irrational) parties like One Nation tend to implode quickly. I'm pleased (if you allow me a bit of sarcasm) to find out, that it's arleary happening:

       New One Nation senator Rod Culleton arrested over larceny conviction

       That's going far off the topic of climate science. The only point I want to make, is that One Nation, to my disappointment, cannot lose its seat if Mr Culleton continues his troubles with the law (likely he will), they can just replace him with another, similar candidate.

23592. nigelj at 13:02 PM on 8 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       I have already read some commentary on the Authoritarians, and would go along with what the book is basically concluding. It looks well worth reading in detail. It's certainly relevant to climate change denialism.

       As the book notes America does have a group on the extreme right in the Tea Party that combines elements of christian fundamentalism, liberatarian free market economics (or those elements that happen to suit these people) and authoritarian leaning personality traits, along with social conservatism. I dont know how all this co-exists, but clearly it does. It's an unusual alliance in some ways.

       The interesting point from a climate change perspective is how this group are so impervious to reasoned argument and empirical evidence. This makes convincing them very difficult.

       However we need to remember this group are in the minority or outer extreme. Most humans are "somewhere in the middle" in terms of beliefs / world views. I believe personality traits and world views probably sit on a bell curve (normal distribution) and beliefs like authoritarianism and libertarianism and religious fundamentalism are towards the outer part of the bell curve. Most people are more amenable to reason and evidence, but can of course be influenced or mislead by the extremists.

       There may be an underlying factor with all these types of people making up the tea party or similar groups in that they "believe" certain moral or economic positions are fixed and absolute. Like Platos absolutes. They are uncomfortable with uncertainty and relativity where liberals are more comfortable with these things. Liberals are however not immune to fundamentals beliefs like "fairness" although this can be explained to some extent in reasoned terms.

       I have a lot of respect for many strong moral positions, but the hard reality is none of these things are fixed and few have any evidential proof of the rigour demanded by science. But some people hold these beliefs with absolute commitment and its hard for them to let go.

       Morals and beliefs and ideologies are basically human inventions, and lack scientific proof or rigour. Hence the tension between these different worlds. Often they are just little more than gut instincts or emotional reactions. There is a good book on this called "Sapiens, a brief history of humankind" by Yuval Harari.

23593. Bob Loblaw at 00:01 AM on 8 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       The denial of such things as the human influence of climate is the result of a complex combination of attitudes towards government, captialism, science, etc. The same psychology influences people's approach to many things in life.

       I suggest reading Bob Altemeyer's The Authoritarians. Based on his career of researching such attitudes, it provides a very interesting insight into the situation. A long read, but at least go to the web page and see what he has to say about the book. The book and its supplement are free PDF downloads.

23594. nigelj at 13:40 PM on 7 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       Why is climate change scepticism more prevalent in America and England than other countries? I think this is because these are the self appointed bastions of free markets, capitalism, and so called individual liberty. In other words people should be free to do whatever they like, including polluting the atmosphere, free from government constraints, or any constraints are to be incredibly minimal. 

       So anyone who produces any science that suggests otherwise, is viewed as an enemy of free markets. 

       This is the simplest explanation. Maybe Exonn is a factor as well, but they are basically reinforcing the free market obsession).

       Don't get me wrong, I generally support capitalism and free markets, provided it doesnt become extreme and damaging to the public good. And I dont suggest everyone thinks exactly like my description above, but enough do to explain the difference in views between countries.

23595. Digby Scorgie at 09:54 AM on 7 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       JWRebel @3, shoyemore @8

       Since learning that it was Exxon that set in motion the campaign against climate action, perforce in the English language, I have wondered if this is not the reason for the preponderance of climate-change deniers in the "Anglo-Saxon sphere".

23596. nigelj at 09:54 AM on 7 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       Tom Curtis @ 4

       Agee entirely.

       Couple of points. Australia appears to have the STV system of proportional representation, and this seems the best option to me.  I live in New Zealand, and we have MMP. We adopted this system partly as it was felt that STV was too "complex" for people to understand, Im embarrassed to say. MMP is a reasonable system but can give a lot of power to extremely small minorities, and creates other difficulties of numerous very small parties.

       You promoted better "critical thinking" being taught at school. I would agree, and have always thought the same. I would add have some actual courses in logic, and also more on basic economics and investment.

       I have often wondered why our own education system still doesn't do these things very well, and have concluded the "governing elite" dont want too many people becoming too smart. Maybe I'm too cynical.

       However the end result could backfire on everybody. Ignorance is never bliss in the longer term.

23597. Tom Curtis at 09:19 AM on 7 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       chriskoz @7, to be honest, what I originally meant has so slipped my mind that do not know whether the noteworthy cases were cases of media organizations that provide tacit support for racism, or examples of racism that the media go lightly on.  An example of the former would now have to include the Australian, whose publications and defence of Bill Leaks racist cartoons would have have to count (although the Australian has typically been very good on most forms of racism), and various radio shock jocks have been consistently far worse.  

       An example of the later would be the wide spread media support of the overtly racist state of Israel, whose immigration laws set a race bar on citizenship (ie, that you must be Jewish, although that is made slightly fuzzy by examples of people who are Jewish by religion only).  A clear case of the racism of Israel is indicated by the justification of Israels existence as the original homeland of the Jews, reinforced by the Law of Return which in effect indicates that anyone proving that their ancestors where Jews, and hence inhabitants of Palestine some 67 generations ago, are given a legal right to immigrate to Israel and become Jewish citizens coupled with the refusal to allow return of Palestinian refugees who were displaced (or whose ancestors within two generations were displaced) from  Israeli claimed lands within the last 70 years.

       I may even have had in mind Pauline Hanson, for while media condemnations of her racism are widespread, cricical discussion of why her and her parties policies are racist have been lacking.  This is similar to reporting of Robert's views on climate, where they are reported at face value without being torn to shreds (as they so easilly can be).  This false balance approach when applied to racism has allowed the cancer to spread, or at least become more virulent in Australia since Pauline Hanson's first arrival on the national stage.

23598. MA Rodger at 05:39 AM on 7 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       fpjohn @9.

       I'm not sure what exactly it is whetting your curiosity but the paper - Arrhenius (1896) - can be read. Note that he overestimates climate sensitivity any his oppo Arvid Högbom doesn't consider the spread of industrialisation and thus the effect of large increases in CO2 emissions that we have witnessed since 1896.

23599. JohnMacdonell at 01:36 AM on 7 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       I understand more than half of Roberts' votes came from preferences for excluded parties.
       
       One Nation had 4 senators voted in, though one is up for sentencing for larceny, and so may not be eligible to sit in the senate.
       
       Nevertheless, One Nation may sometimes hold the balance of power in the senate, depending on how other parties align on different issues.
       
       Could be an opportunity for Australians in general to become more familiar with Roberts' climate denial and conspiracy ideas. That may be a good thing.

23600. fpjohn at 23:12 PM on 6 August 2016
       One Nation's Malcolm Roberts is in denial about the facts of climate change
       

       I am curious as to the effectiveness of the assertion, a factual one, that global warming and consequent climate change fall out of the well established 19th physics of the greenhouse effect. That CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuel would raise global temperature was correctly predicted by Arrhenius in 1896!

       yours

       Frank Johnston

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