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Comments 23901 to 23950:

23901. scaddenp at 11:25 AM on 29 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       Elmwood - not really my problem; just stunned really. Not directly related to climate change but from where I sit on the other side of world, it looks like the following similarities:

       • people willing to be lied to if it fits what they hope is true.
       • unwillingness to check arguments
       • blatant willingness to try and have advantages of a policy without the obligations
       • and the probability having to listen in misery while a younger generation asks how people could be so stupid.

       "norway and swizerland are not in the EU either."  Your point? Neither seems to me to  share much in way of economic fundamentals with UK. Norway is member of EEA which guarantees free movement of people (ie labour force) as well as goods and services. Cant see Brexiteers who are screaming for say Polish workers out, being keen to sign for that.

23902. Tom Curtis at 11:20 AM on 29 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Mike Hillis @190 [snip].

       Highlights:

       1)   "the section from 8 to 13 is between 95% and 100% transparent"

       Ignoring the impact of ozone, it is true that the zone between 8 and 13 microns absorbs typically less than 10% of upwelling radiation from the surface as shown in the following diagram:

       

       But radiation  can be not only absorbed, but also scattered; and once absorption and scattering are included it is definitely not the case that the window is 95-100% transparent:

       

       The degree of scattering varies by location, but for tropical regions, and not including scattering by salt or dust, transmittance falls to a mean value of about 0.4 (calculated from Modtran tropical clear sky).  The effect of the back scatter plus reemittance are clearly seen in the Nauru downwelling radiation spectrum @187 above.  In contrast, for very cold, or very high regions (hence with very little H2O) scattering and absorption falls to near zero in that window.  Given that these only account for a small percentage of the Earth's surface, however, a transmittance even in the window of 0.8 is optimistic.

       2)   "the section from 17 to 100 is largely transparent (let's say around 50% on average"

       Not even close.  In fact so far from the truth it is difficult to distinguish from bald face lying:

       

       The best that can be said for Mike Hillis claim is that he is mistaking emission from H2O in the atmosphere for emission from the surface.  The former results in radiation in those wavelengths of about 50% of the surface expected radiation - but that is only because it is radiated from a higher, and colder location by H2O.  That, of course, means radiation in those wavelengths generate a greenhouse effect.

       3)  "If glass were 50% transparent you'd call it tinted"

       Possibly, but the original claim was "the atmosphere is almost 100% transparent or largely transparent to a majority of upwelling wavelengths of IR" and a glass that is 50% absorbing is not "largely transparent".  Hillis claim re tinted glass is a transparent attempt to shift the goal posts.

       4)  "Note his lack of the word "upwelling" and his representing that I was talking about the entire IR spectrum from 700 nanometers to 1 mm, almost all of which is utterly not radiated by Earth"

       Possibly more to the point, note the way Hillis avoids discussing the fact that I discusses to wavelength ranges, ie, the full IR spectrum and the more restricted range observed by IR satellites.  That is because it was ambiguous what HIllis means by "upwelling".

       The fact is that even at 0.7-0.8 microns,a 288 K black body, and hence also the Earth's surface, radiates energy (as can be checked on Spectral Calc).  It certainly radiates at all wavelengths longer than that.  Ergo, unless an intensity restriction is placed on what is considered to be an "upwelling wavelength", the entire IR spectrum has upwelling radiation from the Earth.  If an intensity limit was intended, it should have been stated.  The failure to prescribe it was Hillis fault, not my own.

       Granted that if such an intensity limit has been stated, that would have cut of the higher and lower wavelengths.  Except for tendentious limits, however, it would not have cut of the 4-20 micron range which I also discussed.

       In all, Hillis [snip]... the faults in his presentation (ie, not being explicit about the wavelengths which he considered, and or explicitly stating a radiance threshold to be considered "upwelling").

       [snip]

       Moderator Response:

       [GT] Insulting tone deleted.
       
       The bitching has gone on long enough, irrespective of any ones views about who is at fault.
       
       Everyone cease and desist immediately.
       
       Any future comments containing any such tone or breaches of the code of conduct will be deleted. Stick to the science!

23903. Elmwood at 10:54 AM on 29 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       while i appreciate the young and their concern over the current fate of their country, they will be old one day and can vote to return to the EU. why not just accept the will of the people on this, it's not a black and white issue anyways and i don't see how this is something directly related to climate change. 

       norway and swizerland are not in the EU either. 

23904. scaddenp at 10:38 AM on 29 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       Or just remembering sunny times and forgetting being the sick man of Europe in 1973? Will immigration actually drop? And how much is the perception that immigrants and EU are responsible for changes that are in fact due to automation. I think Brexiteers have somehow deluded themseleves that they can retain the benefits of membership without any of the obligations. Farage has certainly encouraged this. Good luck persuading Merkel on that. 

        

        

23905. Doodad at 10:34 AM on 29 June 2016
       Climate's changed before
       

       Interesting. When you say warmer climates are benificial to cold blooded animals, you only highlight the animals that everyone dislikes(trying to make it sound aweful?). In case you didn't know not all cold blooded animals are lizards, cockroaches, flies and mosquitoes. Similarly, rats and rodents are not the only small mammals either. You could say, the death of pests is a much larger catastrophy than the prospering of pests. No rodents or rats? What are snakes and eagles going to eat? No bugs or pests? A vast majority of animals rely on bugs as their staple diet. So what if the amount of pests increases? Nature has a magical ability called balancing itself. Too much bugs or pests will cause the thriving of birds and other small animals. Or the advancement of pesticides. 

23906. nigelj at 08:39 AM on 29 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       Why do the young want to remain, and the old leave?

       Firstly the young are idealistic, and the old more realistic.

       Secondly young people have only ever been part of the EU. Older people remember a longer history when Britain was not in the EU, and managed to do ok, and so see it all differently.

       I don't think leaving the EU is a great idea, but I understand why. A lot of problems have built up and not been addressed, and so people have lashed out at the EU. The benefits of free trade have not trickled down to ordinary people much, and there are worries about high rates of immigration, loss of sovereignty, etc. Its all like an earthquake fault rupturing.

23907. william5331 at 06:39 AM on 29 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       If Brexit does occur and it is not yet a done deal, this doesn't necessarily mean that the UK will abandon Carbon mitigation measures.  Exactly the opposite could be the case.  Only time will tell.  What is sure that a small unit such as the UK can be lighter on its feet than a large unit like the EU.  The devil is in the detail.

       However, ask yourselves what motivated America to so want the UK to stay in the EU that they sent their president over there to make the case.  America sees the UK as a convenient pipe line into the EU for various American interests such as imposing the disastrous trade agreement on the EU which is not a trade agreement at all but a restriction of trade agreement.  She also wants to use the EU against Russia   Look at the history of the USA vis a vis other countries.  She has always destroyed emerging democratic movements wherever she found them, replacing them with pet dictators.  The EU in its present form is a dictatorship by a number of unelected commissioners.

       http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2015/04/timeline-usa.html

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] You've been warned before about using this forum as an advertising vehicle for your blog (link snipped).  Please cease.

23908. HK at 04:52 AM on 29 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Mike Hillis @190:
       "....because the section from 8 to 13 is between 95% and 100% transparent...."

       Take a look at the downwelling radiation at Nauru in @187.
       This proves that water vapour can emit radiation between 10 and 13 µm and also between 8 and 9.4 µm. The almost total lack of radiation in Barrow at these wavelengths was caused by an almost total lack of water vapour as the temperature there was lower than -30^oC.

       From the Wikipedia article about Kirchhoff's law:
       "For an arbitrary body emitting and absorbing thermal radiation in thermodynamic equilibrium, the emissivity is equal to the absorptivity."

       Which means that if water vapour can emit at these wavelengths mentioned above, it can also absorb at them, although that absorption is pretty weak compared to other parts of the spectrum.
       Regarding the rest of the relevant part of the spectrum – the chart posted by MA Rodger clearly shows that you are wrong about your "50% transparency" claim.

       Spectral radiance from a 288 K blackbody at some wavelengths, given in W/m²/sr/µm:
       4 µm:     0.438
       10 µm:   8.114 (close to maximum)
       30 µm:   1.143
       50 µm:   0.222
       100 µm: 0.018

       Source: SpectralCalc.com

23909. MA Rodger at 03:36 AM on 29 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Mike Hillis @190,

       Are you saying that when you wrote "the atmosphere is almost 100% transparent or largely transparent to a majority of upwelling wavelengths of IR" @178, you meant to say "the troposphere is almost 100% transparent or largely transparent to a majority of upwelling wavelengths of IR"? [snip].

       I also wonder where you base your assertion that the atmosphere (or are we talking 'troposphere' again, although it doesn't matter a jot) is "largely transparent (let's say around 50% on average)" for IR wavelengths between 17 and 100 microns. The graphic below is a reasonably common representation of atmospheric IR absorption and shows rather an absence of transmission all the way up to 70 mocrons. (Elsewhere you can find similar graphics showing this zero transmission continues well beyond 1,000 microns.)

       

       Note also this graphic shows that the level of "upwelling" IR at 4 microns does exceed the level of "upwelling" IR at 100 microns, the latter a wavelength you feel important enough to feature in you analysis. Is there a reason why you are so emphatic that "it doesn't" feature at 4 microns? [snip]. 

       Moderator Response:

       [GT] Hostile tone deleted.
       
       Everyone, time to dial it down and call a halt to the name calling in any form.
       
       Any future posts from anyone guilty of breaches of civility will be deleted.

23910. Mike Hillis at 01:49 AM on 29 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       It doesn't

23911. Mike Hillis at 01:48 AM on 29 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       I said

       "the atmosphere is almost 100% transparent or largely transparent to a majority of upwelling wavelengths of IR"

       Which is true, because the section from 8 to 13 is between 95% and 100% transparent, the section from 17 to 100 is largely transparent (let's say around 50% on average. If glass were 50% transparent you'd call it tinted) leaving only the CO2 band from 13 to 17. (The ozone band at 9.6 is not relevant because there is no O3 in the troposphere unless there was alightning storn or somebody hired ToM Curtis to do the electrical work. 

       Tom quoted me as making

       "the damn fool claim that the majority of IR wavelengths are transparent or largely transparent"

       Note his lack of the word "upwelling" and his representing that I was talking about the entire IR spectrum from 700 nanometers to 1 mm, almost all of which is utterly not radiated by Earth.

       This is the argument style of a BS artist, plain and simple. He knew I said upwelling, but went on to say something utterly different, fully aware of what he was doing.

       (snip) Funny that the moderator said that

       "Tom has shown you in clear error."

       As for the gish gallop of whether Earth radiates 4 microns:

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] The stricken paragraph is argumentative. Please keep the discussion civil. 

       Also, what is the source of the graphic embedded in this comment?

       [RH] Moderation complaint snipped.

23912. woodblock at 23:13 PM on 28 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       I'm 64 and I voted to leave because I firmly believe that the EU is deeply undemocratic. On the other hand I also believe that governments should do more to limit carbon emissions and limit climate change which is why I follow this website. So where do I fit in?

       As I understand it the chart quoted above was taken from a poll before the referendum which was the same poll that predicted a remain vote. It doesn't say what the sample size is or how it was selected. The age range for the actual vote is unknown because the voting is anonymous. To call the chart "How different age groups voted" is wrong.

       Neither campaign covered itself in glory but I would say that when it comes to exaggerated claims then the remain campaign was the worst. 

       It is quite wrong to compare the referendum voting in the UK with belief in climate change in the US.

       Pundits seem to be looking for a single simple reason for the referendum vote but that's a gross over simplification.

       The article seems to be saying that I voted to leave because I'm stupid. I'm not stupid. I may not be wise either but I thought carefully before I voted which is my right. To call it intergenerational theft is insulting. I have three daughters who I love dearly. They all voted remain which is their right but I believe that their future (and mine) would be better outside the EU.

23913. José M. Sousa at 23:05 PM on 28 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       This seems a very biased post concerning Brexit 

       «the younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the full extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages and experiences we will be denied. Freedom of movement was taken away by our parents, uncles, and grandparents in a parting blow to a generation that was already drowning in the debts of our predecessors.»  I consider this utterly ridiculous and untrue!

       Anyway you can´t simply ignore the anxieties of middle and older age people as if they don´t matter. And by the way, the EU isn´t really that interested in fighting climate change. You can´t simply ignore the effects that blind austerity have on the priorities people attach to having a job and fighting climate change. I have a deep concern about climate change but do we think Greeks won´t explore their estimated vast gas reserves if Germany and others keep asfixiating them with harsh austerity?

23914. EmFox at 19:56 PM on 28 June 2016
       Analysis: Is the UK relying on ‘negative emissions’ to meet its climate targets?
       

       Interesting and another important matter that needs dealing with for the sake of meeting climate change challenge. However, as per usual the emphasis is one of dealling with supply-side issues. it bascially keeps with the reformist debate which looks to supply-side technologies and current market mechancisms for climate change mitigation and thereby avoiding challenging matters of consumption and growth. However this post does point out the large problems with this supply-focused agenda but it ialso could do with pointing out how essential it is to also focus on demand-side aspects which are required as this post would appear to offer unvoiced support.

       Unfortunately this is the largely neglected side of dicussion. Politicians who care don't really want to deal with it as they are fearful of the response from the electorate, scientists seem more interested in the higher-tech dicussions of dealing with supply-side and probably hold some bias that human behaviours are hard-wired and unchangeable (for which there is only some very dodgy evidence). Pyschologists also appear to be more concerned with how to win the support of the public for the reformist agenda and with a focus on individuals and not society seem to hold little value for dealing with demand-side.

       However there is plenty of work out there that is gathering momentum from sociologists and human geographers, among others, who recognise human behaviours as not fixed but part of changeable social practices that are embedded in infrastructures, systems of legitimacy and provision which contribute to the normative and affective aspects of how humans relate to them. As a consequence they are highly changeable. I would reccomend for those who wish to explore the demand-side further to, for starters, take a look at work by the Demand Centre under Prof. Elizabeth Shove www.demand.ac.uk/ . It should be blatantly evident for anyone now that climate change mitigation is not merely a technological issue but a social, political and cultural one too.

23915. barry1487 at 12:14 PM on 28 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       For myself, I comment less because most ground is well-trodden.

       Brexit is not, though. It's still too early, AFAICS, to start making calls on what will happen, especially WRT climate policy.

23916. Tom Curtis at 07:54 AM on 28 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Further to my comment @8, it appears that the genuine racists in British society are taking the success of the "Leave" campaign as endorsing their racist views.   I believe that shows my comments to have been on the mark.  Regardless, it is certainly encumbant on those "Leave" voters who are not racists to thoroughly disabuse the racists of their view. 

23917. Tom Curtis at 07:50 AM on 28 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       This is in the way of a comment on moderation, so I apologize to the moderators for the extra work involved but:

       1)  It is a bit stiff being required to remain silent on a topic while Haze is given the benefit of a last (if rather silly) word.  Merely striking through an off topic comment does not remove it from the post, and is not, IMO, an acceptable way to end a off topic discussion.

       2)  When Haze purposely praised the current PM who is in the process of seeking reelection, I avoided discussion of him on the basis that that would be too political.  I find now, however, that his praise is allowed to stand as not being too political while discussion of a former prime minister is struck out as being off topic.  Surely the discussion of a man currently seeking election is more overtly political than that of the man who is long retired.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Normally moderation complaints are offtopic and deleted, but I will let this stand because the situation is unfortunate and I understand your annoyance. However, discussion of Australian politics and merits of PMs is definitely offtopic and tone of conversation was heading south fast. A break has to go in somewhere but I was late to party.

       I will allow a comment offering an alternative forum in which you could both continue to discuss Australian politics.

23918. ianw01 at 07:20 AM on 28 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       Unless you are too young to vote.

23919. jipspagoda at 06:34 AM on 28 June 2016
       The inter-generational theft of Brexit and climate change
       

       From the looks of it, while a larger percentage of younger people voted to remain, far fewer of them turned out to vote.   http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/24/brexit-demographic-divide-eu-referendum-results/.  You can't complain about the results if you didn't even bother to vote.

23920. Glenn Tamblyn at 19:03 PM on 27 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Haze
       
       Leaving aside the irrelevent Australia dimension, the question of compulsory vs optional voting actually has a relevence to the Brexit question. Young people didn't vote in the same numbers and now are unhappy with the result. If voting had been compulsory, maybe the resut would have been different. Even if not, at least we would have known more clearly that this actually was the will of all the British people.
       
       As to compulsory voting being undemocratic, that seems to be conflating two different ideas as if they are the same thing; democracy, and individual rights. They aren't the same thing.
       
       Democracy is the basic idea of one nobleman male-property-owner male person, one vote. (see how the idea has evolved over time) About the equality of all people. Which in essence is the heart of the traditional concept of the rights of the individual. That all people have equal rights. Note this is not the same as all people have limitless rights.
       
       Then in more recent times Libertarian type thought has construed this as the individual does not have to do many things if they don't want to. Conflating equality of rights with what those rights are. The first is sacrosanct, the seond is a trade off that is the foundation of any society.
       
       In America the first 10 Amendments to the Constitution are collectively referred to as the Bill Of Rights. Other countries implement this in different ways. Something encapsulating what the rights of a citizen are. But what is missing is a comparable idea; A Bill of Responsibilities. Something encapsulating what the obligations of citizens are to the functioning of their society. And what the limits of those obligations are.
       
       Tom Curtis gave a simple example of all driving on the same side of the road. I would suggest that engagement with our society to participate in its good functioning is a citizens responsibility. That doesn't mean everyone should become an MP. But wanting to opt out of engagement with the broader civic society, which not voting is in part, is not on. It is not a breach of some ones rights to compel them to vote. It is an abrogation of their responsibilities if they don't. And some responsibilities actually need to be enforced. As long as that enforcement is totally even handed, I don't see a problem.
       
       Society provides us with most of the things that make life possible and decent; our individual contributions are small compared to that. I don't see it as problematic that we have an obligation to give back in order to make society work.

       Civilisation is the most amazing of human inventions. But it doesn't come for free; there is a price we need to pay to buy a civilisation.

23921. earthquakes at 18:56 PM on 27 June 2016
       Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans
       

       earthquake tragedy in china was on 2008. there is volcanoes and earthquake zone in ring of fire. see on information of earthquake prone zones.

23922. Haze at 04:31 AM on 27 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Tom Curtis @12 From what you write it seems that, like many Australians, you may prefer raucous bellowing and "gotcha" moments rather than civilised discussion.  Certainly the Australian press and politicians much prefer discord and aggression to sensible discourse.  As for Howard being a liar, compared with Julia Gillard's performance on the carbon tax  and the current utterly untruthful "Medicscare" being  spriuiked by Bill Shorten, he is a model of moral rectitude. 

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Okay, I appreciate this topic invites politics but this is straying offtopic and well beyond limits of comments policy. Further discussion on Australian politics can go elsewhere.

23923. Paraquat at 01:28 AM on 27 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Hello all, just one more little thing I feel I should say before leaving this topic to rest. I see from some of the replies that I may have inadvertently given the impression that I actually voted in the Brexit referendum. Much as I would have liked to, that was not the case because, among other reasons, I am in the interesting position of being temporarily stateless. I am an expat living in Taiwan, married to a local lady for many years now. Having undergone a lengthy process to become a Taiwanese national, the last required step was to renounce my nationality (Taiwan's naturalization law rejects dual-citizenship). I am awaiting some documents, most importantly a temporary Taiwan ID card, which becomes permanent after one year, at which point I also can also receive a passport, very different from the one I just gave up. During this one-year period, I can't vote or travel outside Taiwan.

       Anyway, I just wanted to clear that up. I didn't vote in the referendum, but did actively support it here in the local expat community, which includes many UK citizens who could (and did) vote. I have no idea if I influenced even a single person to change his/her position, but the discussions were lively enough. I don't know if it wins me any points, but here in Taiwan I qualify as a "migrant" and I'm married to someone of a different race than myself.

23924. Tom Curtis at 01:06 AM on 27 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       HK @188, thanks for the correction.

23925. Tom Curtis at 00:34 AM on 27 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Haze @10, you might as well say that making it compulsory to drive on the left hand side of the road is "anti democratic" as say that compulsory voting it anti democratic.  Because ballots are secret, all that compulsory voting can compell is that you place a ballot paper into the ballot box.  You cannot be required by law to mark an "x", or fill order of preference, or whatever is the method of registering a vote in the jurisdiction, for such a requirement is incompatible with a secret ballot.  So, all that follows from compulsory voting is that nearly the whole voting public vote; and as they are in the voting booth already, the vast majority of them register a valid vote.  In consequence, it becomes impossible to do as is done in the US, ie, to ignore the concerns of a large constituency because by  doing so you sufficiently discourage their interest in voting so that they can be effectively ignored.  If you try it, you end with a parliament increasingly dominated by minor parties who take up the views of those you wished to exclude.

       As to Cameron being a gentleman - I do not value the trait highly.  Gentlemen have been slavers, rapists, murderers and thieves, and their "good breeding" and "good manners" was neither here nor their on the fact that they were villains.  Howard, you you applaud, was happy to lie repeatedly to the Australian people, and when found out, equally happy to have underlings fall on their swords to protect his position.  A gentleman, he may have been, but he was a liar and without honour.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Offtopic and beyond pale.

23926. One Planet Only Forever at 23:49 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Paraquat@1,
       "... politics makes strange bedfellows."

       I would encourage you to better understand how that applies to the supporters of Brexit who only narrowly won the vote.

       Plenty of information is available regarding the type of people appealed to by the promoters of "Leave", including the June 19th episode of the "Last Week Tonight" show that John Oliver hosts on HBO.

       There is no doubt that misleading claim making by promoters of "Leave" was designed to appeal to "..."racists, xenophobes, rednecks, rightwingers, morons"...". The Libertarian UKIP website states it is a non-racist group and yet it has many representatives who clearly make racist comments and its leader has defended racist zenophobic moronic comments made by official representatives of the party. And there is also no doubt that those appeals to such damaging ultimately unsustainable attitudes mainly succeeded. Very few "racists, xenophobes, rednecks, rightwingers, morons" would be expected to vote Remain.

       So although there may be some selective rational reasons for voting Leave, the failure of many voters to understand the totality of the issue when making the decision and basing their decision on the desire to see global humanity advance to a lasting better future for everyone would clearly lead to future failure of any "democracy" including one simply following the definition by Abraham Lincoln.

       It is pretty clear that for humanity to have a future it is essential that only attitudes and actions that can be proven to most likely advance humanity to a lasting better future for all, with all things related to the item being evaluated being rationally considerately responsibly considered, can be allowed to compete for popularity and profitability.
       Without what I have suggested the results of a vote in a "democracy" can easily be seen to be a narrow victory for an unholy marriage of well-meaning voters with "racists, xenophobes, rednecks, rightwingers, morons".

       However, I guess the result of the success of such a cobbled together voting block would be decent as long as those well-meaning voters that chose to be bedfellows with a collective of unsavory characters can effectively eliminate any further influence or success from the "racists, xenophobes, rednecks, rightwingers, morons" in their unacceptable pursuits (beyond getting their votes of support to be part of winning a vote). However it is clear from history that the leaders of pushes to win by appealing to single issue inconsiderate irrational, irresponsible personal desires continue to need to feed that damaging voter base.

       My closing point is that the leader of the Libertarian UKIP group pushing for Leave declared in May that a 52-48 win by Remain would only be the start of a further push for a new vote. That may have been a reason for the foolish decision by the current leaders of Britain to fail to require a clear majority of eligible voters to be the measure of a 'win'. The current PM is rightly resigning his position. But the likes of Boris Johnson who clearly failed to win the majority of votes in the city he used to be Mayor of should also resign, not be considered the likely replacement for PM. And that Libertarian group leader should also clearly not be considered to be a suitable candidate for national leadership.

        

23927. HK at 23:29 PM on 26 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Tom @187:
       We are pretty much in agreement, but I want to point out a small error in your last post.
       In your calculation of the window radiation (8-13 µm) you seem to have compared the band radiance with the radiant emittance. Note that the unit of the former is W/m²/sr, while the latter is W/m², without the steradians at the end.

       The correct comparison would be band radiance and radiance (the second row in the right column of the Blackbody Calculator). That increases the window fraction of the radiation from 9.9 to 31.2 %. Your conclusion is of course still true, as 68.8 % of the radiation comes from outside the window region, most of it strongly absorbed by the atmosphere, and there is also some absorption within the window itself, mainly by water vapour and ozone.

       BTW, I was a little puzzled by the dip near 15 µm in Barrow, until I realised that it probably is the result of a temperature inversion. That part of the spectrum is so strongly absorbed by CO₂ that the lower few metres of air is able to block the radiation from the warmer air higher up.

       Spectroscopy can obviously tell us a lot about the conditions in an atmosphere. No wonder it’s the most important tool in astrophysics!

23928. Haze at 23:14 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Tom Curtis@7 You say compulsorty voting in Australia makes it more democratic than the UK.  Surely forcing people to vote is not at all democtratic it is in fact autocracy by the government.  I'm in the UK at he moment and saw the Cameron exit speech.  He came across as a gentleman which cannot be said for any Australian politicians with perhaps the exceptions of Howard and Turnbull.  There has been extensive coverage here of Brexit and the general civility tosward one another by the proponents of each side is an object lesson for  Australia,.. Interestingly in all the hours I have watched and all the articles I have read on the post Brexit referendum there jhas been no mention of climate change.   As far as I, as an outsider, can gather, it is not an issue at all with either the Remain or Leave groups 

23929. MA Rodger at 20:52 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Paraquat @1,

       The evidence suggests there are not enough UK voters in denial over AGW to win a referendum. That is, when asked in a recent survey only 14% disagreed with the statement: “human activity is causing climate change." However. what that evidence does show is that this 14% in denial comprises 10% of Remain voters and 18% of Leave voters. So as you support Brexit and I am very definitely of the opposing view having campaigned to Remain, we can say that you as a Leaver are 80% more likely to be in denial over AGW than I am as a Remainer.

23930. Tom Curtis at 18:13 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Paraquat @1, the OP in no way said that people voting in favour of BREXIT were deniers, a terminology you introduced to this topic.  It did not even say that BREXIT will result in higher emissions from the UK (or should I say, the soon to be "former UK").  What it does argue is that, depending on how a UK which is no longer a member of the EU structures its relationships with the EU, there will be different sets of risks of increased emissions, and different opportunities for reducing emissions.

       Having said that, many of the leading lights of the BREXIT "leave" campaign are noted AGW deniers.  Given the success of their campaign, it is reasonable to suppose that they will have more influence in future British governments, in which case the UK is likely to lag on its commitments, or even reverse current emissions reductions.

       Further, while I do not think that the majority of people voting to leave were racist, there is no doubt that fear of immigration was a cornerstone of the "leave" campaign.  Given Britain's colonial history, Britain can have no in principle objection to immigration.  If they do, they must acknowledge that they have done a major wrong to such nations as Pakistan, India, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and more especially, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and Canada - and make major reparations for that wrong to the indigenous peoples of those nations.

       As I doubt that would be a popular view in Britain, I conclude that the opposition to imigration is Britain is in fact racist.  It represents a view that British immigration to foreign nations is good for the foreigners, but return immigration is a bad thing for the British - a view only sustainable with the view of overwhelming racial superiority that was the ideology of empire.

       I of course, have no reason to believe that you yourself are racist.  You may have voted to leave for reasons having nothing to do with immigration.  You may even have been principled enough to repudiate the racist anti-immigrant rhetoric that was the cornerstone of the 'leave' campaign.  But please do not pretend racism had nothing to do with the schmozzle the British have landed themselves in. 

23931. Tom Curtis at 17:54 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       William @2, the only good, succinct definition of "democracy" is that Abraham Lincoln.  It is government of the people, by the people, for the people.  That is far more than the power to periodically throw out whichever autocratic government currently rules by means of elections, which you reduce democracy to.  Ideally it means electoral laws should be so structured that the representation within parliament matches in proportion the political opinions of the electorate - something that requires either a Hare-Clark system with at least 5 members per electorate, or better Mixed Member Proportional electoral system.  It also requires near full participation by the electorate in each election*.  Systems such as the Westminster system which favour a small number of major parties, particularly if they use a first past the post system, and particularly with low turnouts, as is normally the case in the UK, can be considered as government by less than half of the people at best on most occasions.  To make it worse, the the UK's house of review is almost completely undemocratic.  The UK is, therefore, only imperfectly democratic at best; and significantly less so than, for example, Australia (with compulsory voting, preferential voting, and a far more democratic house of review), or even better, New Zealand with its MMP system.

       I do not know enough to make a precise assessment about the EU.  However, every person with legislative power within the EU is either directly elected from within one or another of the member nations, elected from within a (imperfectly) democratic parliament, or elected by the European Parliament, whose members are directly elected.  It is imperfectly democratic primarilly because the institution with the most control within the EU is indirectly elected by means of the election of national governments by its members (and in which, therefore, European wide issues recieve significantly less scrutiny).  I have seen it stated that the EU is not democratic because the EU parliament cannot initiate legislation, but as the legislation in the Westminster system, with rare exceptions, is initiated by the cabinet rather than the parliament this is not a fundamental issue, especially given that the members of the European Commission are appointed by democratically elected governments, and the President of the Commission elected by the European Parliament.  Overall the EU is imperfectly democratic, just as is the UK and the USA (and Australia and NZ).  It may be possible to make it more democratic, but not without giving the larger nations effectively complete control over EU decisions.

       Finally, it currently is the case that the "incumbents" in the EU can be chucked out be the people of the EU.  Doing so, however, requires chucking out the incumbents not only in the European parliament by direct election, but also the incumbents in the various national governments by direct election in each member state.  What cannot be done is to chuck out the incumbents at all levels of the EU by a direct election in one or two member states only.  No single electorate (ie, member state) of the EU has veto power on government.  That is not a feature that makes the EU less democratic, just as it was no impediment to the democratic nature of the recent referendum that Gibraltar by itself could not overrule the result.

       In sum, you are a person willing to accept an effectively unelected body with a membership based on aristocratic membership, eclesiastical eminence in a single denomination of a single religion, and permanent appointment by governments as a house that can not just review but initiate legislation and veto legislation it does not like as constituting part of a democratic system of government.  Given that your insistence that the EU is not just democratic, but a dictatorship is wholly inconsistent - not to mention slanderous.  There are no doubt ways to improve the EU, and also ways to make it more democratic - but to claim that it is not democratic, and a dictatorship is false on its face.

        

       (* It also requires some form of constitution that requires that government be for the benefit of the people, something certainly lacking in the UK, and the presence of which in the EU seems to be a major irritant for many of those who object to the EU.) 

23932. Glenn Tamblyn at 17:37 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       The EU has been around for quite some time in various guises. And mauch of its structure is still grounded in cold war era ideas of nation states, late 20th century economic thinking etc. It would seem to be ripe got an overhaul. It has probably gone overboard on standardizing things across countries and cultures. And the common currency may not have been a great idea with economies as diverse as Germany, Ireland, Portugal and Greece.
       
       That said, it is also an evolving grouping. Bringing in new members and adapting to the time. Probably it needs a rethink, a realignment. However, as an organisation and a quasi-state it is still a wonderful thing. Look at the history of Europe during the 20th centurt; hell all the centuries before. Sure masses of distinct cultures. That spent a lot of time trying to kill each other.
       
       When the communist experiment failed, arguable the EU is the only remaining experiment in new forms of government, which we sorely need. Sadly it seems to be a bit too wedded to that other experiment in non-government - globalisation, TPP,  neo-liberalism etc.
       
       But it may be the best hope for a new form of government to emerge from what currently is a not too bad, but not too good, first attempt.

       For me what saddens me about the success of Brexit is that rather than being a 'reform of the EU' movement, with a vocal popular expression of dissatisfaction with how it currently works, it became a 'we are packing our bags and leaving' movement.
       
       I just hate seeing babies thrown out just because the bath water is dirty.
       
       But then, 14,000 km away in Australia, my voice doesn't carry much weight.

23933. Glenn Tamblyn at 17:10 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Paraquat.
       
       While nobody would suggest that millions of UK citizens that voted to leave are climate change deniers, even skeptics, there are certainly some people in the leadership of the UK Independence Party that fit that description.
       
       While Brexit has certainly been an expression of the will of millions of ordinary UK citizens, it has also attracted a few more extreme elements as well.

23934. Paraquat at 14:07 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       @ William...

       Good to make your acquaintance online. I agree with you that Cameron's exit speech actually was gracious and honest, which I found a pleasant surprise. I can only hope that Cameron's successor will be as gracious and honest when it comes to leading the UK in this tumultuous times.

       @ KR

       I'm actually glad to hear that SkS readership is increasing, even though comments seem to be falling. I'll try to do some more commenting in the future. As for suggestions to this blog, I think it's perfectly OK to present differing opinions (including some nutcase opinions) as long as you present some balance, and (in the case of a guest opinion) make it clear that this site doesn't necessarily support the author's position. I took this Chatham House article as being SkS's position on Brexit and maybe that wasn't fair, but I didn't see anything that it was being balanced by other arguments. Over the past few days, we Brexit supporters have been getting slammed left and right as racist ogres, mental retards and possibly child molesters as well. Actually, since I support nuclear power, I'm kind of used to being accused of all that, but still I hope for more intelligent dialog.

       Peace,

       Paraquat

23935. KR at 13:35 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Paraquat - At this point I have no idea whether Brexit will be a net gain or loss for the UK; I think only time will tell. The demographics of the votes are curious - definitely weighted towards older, whiter voters in support - I'm a bit concerned that this represents conservative backlash rather than forward thinking, but again it's IMO too soon to tell.

       Regarding SkS readership, however, it's on the increase, along with recommendations, sourcing by scientists, mentions on mass media, etc. Comments have as far as I can see dropped, but I suspect that's due more to the moderation policies which don't encourage mindless unsupported venting - the loons have moved on to less discerning venues.

23936. william5331 at 13:05 PM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Very sensible comment Paraquat.  In addition, whatever you think of Brexit, you have to admit that the UK is a democracy which is more than you can say for many other so called democracies.  Cameron's exit speech was gracious, honest and to the point and he is much to be admired for it.  I would be much more for the EU if it was a democracy.  The main characteristic of a democracy is not being able to vote for someone but rather to be able to chuck out the incumbants before they think the office they occupy is theirs by divine decree.  The EU is not a democracy and as a dictatorship is much more easily manipulated by the country that has destroyed emerging democratic movements wherever she found them, usually labelling them as communist as if that was a justification for her actions.  Good for the Brits.  I didn't think they would have the courage to leave the existing comfortable if unpleasant situation and to step into the unknown.  I appologize for my lack of faith in them.

23937. Paraquat at 11:41 AM on 26 June 2016
       Chatham House: Brexit could harm UK climate and energy policy
       

       Supporters of Brexit have been called many things, among them "racists, xenophobes, rednecks, rightwingers, morons" and other terms which I needn't repeat. And now Skeptical "Science" is weighing in too, implying that Brexiters are also global warming deniers. Lovely.

       Reality is that many people - including those who identify themselves as environmentalists - see a lot of economic problems thanks to globalisation, outsourcing, austerity, and other "harmonization" policies which the EU promotes. The devastated middle class has almost no tools to fight back with, especially when both of the UK's major political parties offer little to differentiate themselves. The Brexit referendum was one of the few - perhaps the only - time that voters were given a chance to express their displeasure with the status quo, and many took advantage of it. Whether or not it will make a big difference in the long run remains to be seen.

       Getting back to climate - since one of the major "benefits" of globalization is to export industries to countries like China with very low environmental standards, one could easily argue that Brexit might offer some hope - however small - to return some industries to Britain, where environmental standards are higher. A big bad joke of the EU (and other western economies) is that they claim their CO2 emissions are going down, but in reality this is because the dirty coal-burning factories moved to Asia, along with the jobs. It should be obvious enough that exporting CO2 emissions to other countries (all of which share the same earth's atmosphere) doesn't help to solve real climate change problems.

       I personally am a believer that AGW is real, caused mainly by CO2 and methane emissions. I also support nuclear power as one of several solutions for reducing emissions, and have had to take a lot of abuse from so-called "greens" for that. And since in the end I decided to support Brexit, I can now become a target for charges that I'm a "racist" and "AGW denier." You guys really know how to trash your potential allies and destroy your own credibility.

       Finally, I have to say that I've found it almost amusingly ironic to see supposedly "progressive" or "liberal" political activists stand firm with hedge fund bankers and the world's worst polluters to fight for free-trade blocks like the EU. Are you on board for the TPP and TTIP too? Well, their is an old saying that politics makes strange bedfellows.

       You shouldn't be surprised to see that your readership is dropping, and that few bother commenting now. I'm not even sure why I'm bothering, but hey, it's Sunday and I've got a bit of free time. Hope this comment at least gives you food for thought.

23938. Jonas at 09:08 AM on 26 June 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #26
       

       Hello John,

       again deep bow for your work (you know that one, though),

       but relating to your thought that splitting up this fabulous list into more parts would be more user friendly: not so for me: I know, that you usually post this here on the weekend, so I can read it then (when I have a little more time) and if I do not have enough time, I can come back to this one defined point and continue reading ..

       Also, if I try to convince yet another person of this website, I usually send some graphics, some link to debunking (science), some to psychology of denial and a link to the latest weekly list you provide: having one full week to get an impression is just the right amount, and the week implies that there might be a next week ..

       In other words: it's perfect.
       I go to SkS daily, but to your list, I go many times, until done.

       Jonas
       Munich; Software Developer, hobby gardener: 60m2 for vegetables in official city organic farming project, which I support by a private internet forum which I feed with e.g. by rain measurements, minimum temperature measurements in spring, hints for plagues, harvesting, etc. (people often live in some distance). From time to time I allow myself to repost some teaser + link to SkS or one of your linked articles or other there and in other places. Climate is a topic I can "sell" to gardeners as a relevant thing (which it is, unfortunately, even in moderate climates like my home).

       Moderator Response:

       Jonas:

       Is your comment directed at me?

       If so, I do not recall suggesting that the current version of the Weekly News Roundup be split into more parts. 

       Thank you for you positive feedback and for all that you do. 

       John Hartz

23939. One Planet Only Forever at 02:31 AM on 26 June 2016
       97% global warming consensus paper surpasses half a million downloads
       

       nigelj,

       The skeptics are a product of the things that can be gotten away with in free market (or socialist or capitalist or communist) economics (or any other economic system that allows the abuse of marketing and power to unjustifiably drum up potential popularity for understandably unsustainable and damaging activity. The Soviet Union "also" produced damaging unsustainable results due to its economic activity).

       The potential to obtain personal benefit through the development and prolonging of understandably unsustainable and damaging activity is a powerful motivator for the way of thinking and resulting actions of many (but not all) humans.

       These people are unlikely to stop unless it is clear to them that there is greater likelihood of a personal negative consequence that is more significant than the potential benefit they hope to personally obtain, a perception of potential benefit being sold through deceptive marketing promoted by the kingpins of the pyramid schemes of unsustainable and damaging activity developed and promoted and prolonged in the political-economic system.

       An effective solution would be to change the political and economic system to ensure that those kingpins of promotion of understandably unsustainable and damaging ways of thinking and acting will not suceed and will likely suffer significant penalty for their efforts to maximize their personal gain any way they think they can get away with.

       That change of the political and economic systems globally would be important to avoid an over-reaction to the clearly damaging results being developed by the current arrangements made up by humans (climate change is not the only damaging result that has been developed).

       Free market economics (and capitalism) appropriately restrained to activity that is abl to be shown (being shown is different from being able to be deceptively marketed) to be advancing global humanity to a lasting better future for all is almost certain to be the only viable future for Free Market economics. But developing that change to enable free market economics to have a future is the responsibility of the Business and Political Scientists.

23940. Tom Curtis at 09:40 AM on 25 June 2016
       A brief history of fossil-fuelled climate denial
       

       rocketeer @15, using SkS's interactive history of climate science, I found only one paper in the decade prior to 1937 explicitly discussing the greenhouse effect in any detail, E. O. Hulburt's "The Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere of the Earth".  It is interesting because it models the lower atomsphere as being the surface temperature at the altitude of effective radiation to space plus effective altitude of radiation to space times lapse rate.  It is that model which rebuts the notion that the greenhouse effect is saturated.  Previously I had thought it to be the invention of Manabe and Wetherald, 1967, but it now turns out the "CO2 is saturated" argument has been obsolete since 1931.

       Of more interest to this discussion, while Hulburt found high climate sensitivity (4 to 7 C), and did posit changes in CO2 concentration as a possible cause of changes between glacial and interglacial temperatures, he nowhere discusses any potential impact from anthropogenic emissions.  Even Callendar (1938) only projects an increase of CO2 to equivalent of modern values by 2200, with an increase in temperature of 0.57 C as a result.  He found only a 6% increase in CO2 relative to preindustrial times in 1936.  These figures are not appropriately described as "the fears of those people who shudder at the " greatly " increased carbon dioxide content of the air". 

23941. Tom Curtis at 08:10 AM on 25 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       HK @186:

       1)  Again I refer you to the claim I was actually criticizing, ie, that "a majority of upwelling wavelengths of IR" were transparent to, or largely transparent to IR radiation.  For a wavelength to fall into that category, and therefore be a relevant wavelength for assessing the claim, it is sufficient that it be a wavelength that emits IR radiation from the surface.  However, while the 3-5 micron band is only responsible for % of all radiation from a source at 288 K, the 8-13 micron window that Mike Hillis would have us focus on is only responsible for 9.9%.  That compares to 3.8% for the 4-8 micron band, and 9% for the 13-20 micron bands he would have us ignore.  Even that comparison falsely favours his case in that he treats the 9.2-10 micron band, heavilly absorbed by O3 and accounting for 1.7% of emmissions at 288 K, as being essentially transparent. 

       The simply fact is that no matter what end limit I used, the total irradiance from that wavelength is trivial if you concentrate on just that wavelenght.  Thus total emission from 7.6-8.6 microns (chosen because it brackets the wavelength of peak emission) represents just 1.8% of total emissions, and hence can be considered trivial.  Had he focused just on the low emissions at 4 microns, he would have been cherry picking the edge of a broad band specified (4-20 microns).  Of course, he did not even do that, but wrongly claimed zero emissions at 4 microns.  

       So, in short, he attempted to distract from rather than properly address my criticism by focusing on an edge value rather than the full band, pretended his claim was other than it actually was, and still got the facts wrong.  I would say that qualifies as "very wrong", though those were not my words.

       2) The point in your final paragraph is a very good one.  There is reason earth bound IR telesopes are located at the top of tall mountains, or flown in balloons or planes (something not commented on by deniers when they trot out the "atmospheric window".  The impact of water vapour at low levels in that window can be seen from this spectrum of downwelling IR radiation from Nauru, compared to that from Barrow Alaska, where cold weather has condensed most of the water vapour from the atmosphere:

       

23942. HK at 05:28 AM on 25 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Tom @183:
       "Earth doesn't even emit 4 microns."

       I wouldn’t say that Mike’s claim is very wrong here. According to this blackbody calculator, a surface at 288 K emits only about 1 % of its total radiation at wavelengths between 3 and 5 µm, so I think it’s safe to say that absorption in that part of the spectrum is pretty insignificant for the greenhouse effect on Earth, though important on Venus.

       Mike Hillis@178:
       "....if you do not know that the atmosphere is almost 100% transparent or largely transparent to a majority of upwelling wavelengths of IR...."

       Let’s compare the IR flow from the surface to that escaping to space in the chart posted by Bob Loblaw in @167.
       A simple calculation shows at the latter (239 W/m²) is about 60 % of the former (396 W/m²), so by a simplistic glass greenhouse analogy one could claim that 60 % of the "roof" is open. That’s wrong because the atmospheric greenhouse effect both absorbs and reemits in accordance with the local temperature. As a result, the heat loss to space isn’t reduced to zero in any part of the IR spectrum. Consequently, you could have 100 % absorption in the entire spectrum and still have a more or less "open" greenhouse roof because the altitude of heat loss is just as important as the optical depth of the atmosphere. So, claiming that the atmosphere is largely or almost 100 % transparent to a majority of upwelling IR when the heat loss to space is reduced by 40 % is definitely wrong!
       Imagine an Earth with present day surface temperature (288 K) and lapse rate (6.5 K/km) with 100 % cloud cover, the cloud tops 1 km above the surface and no greenhouse gases above them. That atmosphere would be virtually 100 % opaque to IR from the surface, but would that create a strong greenhouse effect? No, because the outgoing IR would only be reduced by 40 W/m², not 157 W/m² as in the chart in @167.
       Regarding the 8 to 13 µm range, water vapour does absorb some radiation in that part of the spectrum, but pretty weakly. The absorption spectrum of water vapour is quit "messy", with a broad band from about 5 to 8 µm, and lots of very narrow, more or less widely spaced bands after that. The peaks of these narrow bands are at their lowest near 10 µm, but get progressively higher with longer wavelengths. So, much of the radiation escaping to space in the 8 to 13 µm range originates from low level water vapour (and stratospheric ozone), but since this water vapour isn’t much colder than the surface, it has a very minor impact on the greenhouse effect.

23943. rocketeer at 05:01 AM on 25 June 2016
       A brief history of fossil-fuelled climate denial
       

       I thought one of the intersting aspects of the article I posted was the defensive tone of the author.  Whe he states that "the fears of those people who shudder at the " greatly " increased carbon dioxide content of the air which is produced by modern industrial activity, are unfounded"  it is news to me that anyone of that era was shuddering wiht fear about the increase in CO2.  Arrhenius in 1906 and Callendar in 1938 both advocated that the climatic changes form CO2 would be a good thing because it would forestall "the return of the deadly glaciers" and improve agriculture in northern regions. 

       Does anyone have any information on what concerns scientists might have had about global warming in the 1930s?  My impression was that very few people (other than Guy Callendar) were even paying attention to Arrhenius' theory at that time and I wasn't aware that anyone considered it a problem.

23944. One Planet Only Forever at 03:22 AM on 25 June 2016
       A brief history of fossil-fuelled climate denial
       

       Tom Curtis@13,

       Thank you for the clarification. My return clarification is that the article was a piece of marketing, not a scientific presentation. The choice of referring to percent increase combined with the term infinitesimal was almost certainly deliberately chosen to diminish the concern regarding the burning of fossil fuels.

       Many readers then and today would be likely to interpret 'percentage increase' as referring to a ratio of change. That is what a deliberately misleading marketer would do, then and today. Which ties to the end of my comment @12.

       This will be my final clarification regarding this point.

23945. alexasilock at 01:38 AM on 25 June 2016
       The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
       

       I would be happy to assist in the translation of this guide in Greek. Please notify me, if you are interested.

23946. Tom Curtis at 01:26 AM on 25 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       MA Rodger @184, thanks.  Very interesting.

23947. MA Rodger at 01:06 AM on 25 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Tom Curtis @183,

       The usual graphic of the Earth's radiative balance (presented in-thread here @167) suggests that the surface IR emissions to space represent 12% of the total IR at 40wm^-2. Mind, Costa & Shine (2012) point to this being a rather "ad hoc"value and model the clear sky value as being 66Wm^-2 and revise the true global average down from 40WM^-2 to 20Wm^-2 (+/-20%). They conclude "This indicates that less than one-tenth of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation originates directly from the surface."

       If the words of Mike Hillis are taken as his position on this %OLR to space, @176 he tells us "The majority of upwelling IR is emitted to space by the surface itself with no absorption by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere" which is quite a staggering assertion. He is asserting the surface IR flux to space is in excess of 120Wm^-2 but presents no evidence in support. Rather we are treated to empty assertiveness.

23948. Tom Curtis at 22:55 PM on 24 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Mike Hillis @181, I quote you in full:

       "As for the third paragraph, if you do not know that the atmosphere is almost 100% transparent or largely transparent to a majority of upwelling wavelengths of IR, most importantly the large band from 8 to 13 microns known to IR astronomers as the N band, which means they are not absorbed by any greenhouse gases at all and play no role in a greenhouse effect, then I would suggest you not enter scientific discussions on this level until you study the subject."

       (My emphasis)

       I have not challenged the claim that the majority of energy radiated from Earth to space comes from the surface because I do not know it is false.  Nor do I know it to be true, though I do know it is irrelevant to the debate.  But when you make the damn fool claim that the majority of IR wavelengths are "transparent or largely transparent", I challenged you because it was transparently false.  Your response it to claim that you wrote something other than what you actually wrote.  Do the decent thing and accept that you mispoke; or confirm that you are deceitful as well as a fool.

       And while we are on the topic of your being a fool, we have this prime example:

       "Earth doesn't even emit 4 microns."

       A fool not simply because you are wrong, but because you make this claim despite the evidence in the chart I showed, where the blue line is Earth's IR spectrum and the lowest wavelength of emissions is clearly seen to be less than 4 microns.  But as you have demonstrated repeately on this thread, you never let evidence that would rebut your ideas enter your consciousness, so why would you start now.

23949. Mike Hillis at 22:44 PM on 24 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Glenn thanks for the link, I will revise my estimate of 30-40% up to somewhere around 50% for blackbody clouds, since some of the thinner clouds aren't.

23950. Mike Hillis at 22:21 PM on 24 June 2016
       Venus doesn't have a runaway greenhouse effect
       

       Tom @179

       You site the N-band of 8-13 microns as being largely transparent to IR, ie, a total of 5 microns of the 0.7 - 1000 micron range of IR radiation. That is, it represents 0.5% of the IR spectrum. It is less than a third of the 4-20 micron range typically detected by satellite instruments. And that 8-13 micron range includes the absorption band of ozone,

       This is the rambling of a non-scientist intending to deceive the readers. The entire 0.7 - 1000 micron range? Really? When we are talking about Earth's upwelling IR? And really, the 4 - 20 micron range detected by satellite instruments? Earth doesn't even emit 4 microns. And dividing up these absurd ranges of wavelengths as if the wavelengths all had equal amplitudes. Unbelievable. And claiming the 8-13 micron range, which presents a major chunk of Earth's Planck curve, and includes the peak wavelength according to Wein's law, is not really transparent because of the trivial 9.6 micron O3 absorption band? This sort of argument makes me want to quote a 1970's bumper sticker:

       If you can't blind 'em with science, baffle them with BS

       And a quote from your own post to me in this thread:

       "Don't be a fool"

       I'm done with you Tom. I'm not going to be reading any more of your comments from now on.

       Moderator Response:

       [RH] You are going to have to address the points where Tom has shown you in clear error. You don't get to unilaterally abandon a line of discussion once you've been shown to be wrong.

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