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Comments 25151 to 25200:

25151. Tom Curtis at 19:34 PM on 10 March 2016
       How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
       

       ConcernedCitizen @95, only a few atmospheric gases radiate heat in the IR spectrum.  In particular, O2 radiates in the microwave range where very little energy is emitted, and the visible light range where no energy in emitted at atmospheric temperatures.  As a result radiation from O2 is inconsequential.  In a similar manner, radiation from N2 is even more inconsequential.  Of the major IR radiating gases (CO2, CH4, NO2, O3) CO2 has a far greater abundance than the others, and absolutely dominates their effect.  Further, the only of the IR gases to be more abundant than CO2 at low levels (H2O) precipitates out with increasing altitude, and consequently is far less abundant than CO2 at high levels.

       The upshot is that your reasoning is fatally flawed by reason of radically false premises.

       All of this is largely irrelevant, however.  The theory used to predict the impact of increasing CO2 has been used to program radiation models that show stunning accuracy in predicting the observed IR radiation from the planet.  This, for example, is the type of accuracy that they demonstrated in 1970 (46 years ago):

       

       The large trough centered around 15 micrometers wavelength is, of course, due to CO2.  Area under the curve represents the total power of TOA emissions, so that trough represents a very significant reduction in energy radiating to space.

       Similar observations have been made with similar accuracy across a wide range of atmospheric condition.  For example, in 2008 comparisons between a model and satellite observations for 134,862 measured values were released:

       

       This represents a stunning accuracy, and the fact that the accuracy was preserved over the full range of latitudes, surface types and atmospheric temperatures shows it is no accident.

       Against this very well established theory - confirmed by laboratory and in situ observations to a remarkable extent, you offer hand waving based on radically false premises.  Given that you have no model, ie, no mathemtical predictions of observations from your premises, you do not even have a scientific theory.  But you want your hand wavey non-theory to trump a theory backed by detailed and extensive comparisons between models and observations over nearly half a century.  I'm just not buying it.

25152. ConcernedCitizen at 19:08 PM on 10 March 2016
       How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
       

       "So if we add more greenhouse gases the air needs to be thinner before heat radiation is able to escape to space"

       But only for heat radiation absorbed and emitted by CO2.  Heat radiation from the rest of the atmosphere is at the same altitude as before, since we arent adding more N2, O2  etc.

       So even if this theory is true, 0.004% of the atmopshere radiates from a higher altitude.  99.996% radiates from exactly the same altitude as before.

       Therefore the saturation argument still holds true and increasing CO2 is of little effect.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] Friendly advice. If every textbook on radiative physics validates GHG theory, but you have a differing opinion, then chances are you have misunderstood the theory (as in this case) rather than the theory is wrong. Concluding "therefore the saturation argument still holds" is hubris in extreme. You will get better engagement here if instead you say "given x,y,z, then appears to me that the theory X is wrong". People will help with misconceptions and in the unlikely event of you discovering something new, be inclined to take your argument seriously. And you are very unlikely to find new science unless you have taken time to read the textbook and thoroughly understand the theoretical background.

25153. Sharon Krushel at 17:52 PM on 10 March 2016
       After 116 days, MIT fossil fuel divestment sit-in ends in student-administration deal for climate action
       

       I only took one ethics course in college, but it seems to me that punishing the fossil fuel industry with divestment, while we are still using fossil fuels, is hypocritical. It could also be counterproductive in terms of stopping global warming as it leads people to think they've done their bit for the environment if they've divested, when, in the long run, they haven't done anything significant at all.

       If divestment resulted in all of the tar sands in Canada shutting down, it would reduce global emissions by 0.15% (and people would just import oil across the ocean from somewhere else). However, if, for example, everyone were to stop travelling for the sake of pleasure, the reduction in global CO2 emissions would be significant indeed. I wonder if there any statistics on that.

       Targeting the industry that supplies the gasoline and jet fuel we use is a perfect example of the psychology of blaming. It is a popular approach to the global warming problem because it relieves us of the very uncomfortable feeling that we should be making changes in our personal choices, and rather makes us feel like members of the league of environmental heroes who will bring down the villain and save the planet.

       Essentially, we as consumers are driving AGW. We would be further ahead to stop demonizing our suppliers and encourage people, institutions, manufacturers and industry to take responsibility for their own carbon footprint.

       Here's a question for the ethics committee. If it is immoral to invest in companies that extract fossil fuels, is it also immoral to invest in companies that use fossil fuels?

       I think investing in renewable energy companies is a positive move for institutions and individuals.

       I agree with engaging with the fossil fuel industry as investors with an attitude of inquiry and inspiration, as long as we are not so myopic that we can't see the logistics the company has to deal with.

       Ironically, we may need a healthy fossil fuel industry in order to transition to renewables. We need to be careful we don't antagonize and cripple the giant whose resources and expertise we could really use in our quest.

       Fossil fuel industry executives and workers are people too, who care about the earth that will be inherited by their children and grandchildren. Many have dedicated their entire careers to working within the industry to minimize impact on the envionment while supplying people with the energy they need to survive and thrive through all these years. Eveyone knows we need to move to a low carbon economy. But right now, some of us would freeze to death before we had a chance to starve to death without a supply of fossil fuels.

       If we damage western fossil fuel companies with divestment, we'll just end up importing more oil from places like Saudi Arabia, and they are using the profits to bomb schools and hospitals.

       On the other hand, the royalties from Canadian tar sands oil funds schools and hospitals, social programs for the poor, etc. And as technology and efficiency improves, CO2 emissions are going down.

       The ethics of this issue are not as black as tar and as white as a wind turbine.

25154. TomR at 08:22 AM on 10 March 2016
       Why We Need to Keep 80 Percent of Fossil Fuels in the Ground
       

       Bill McKibben is a great leader, but he is far too optimistic. We have already very likely burned far too much fossil fuel and 100% of it needs to be left in the ground. We have very likely already crossed the barrier for a 2C rise in global temperature due to the melting permafrost and methane clathrates which the IPCC has yet to consider. Despite this, humans are burning more oil and natural gas than ever before. Coal may have decreased a little, but as of Dec. 31, 2014, it was also at record levels. Deforestation is also at record levels according to the most recent satellite study which show that numerous world governments have been lying. And Europe is chopping down American forests to burn in their power plants.

       Of course, Europe has been lying about nitrogen oxide and soot emissions from diesels yet is still subsidizing diesel cars and fuel. The EPA has been lying until recently about U.S. methane emissions. Atmospheric CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide are all at records levels and still increasing at or near their fastest rates ever. CO2e is almost at 500 parts per million.

       We need to ban the manufacturer and importation of fossil fuel cars, buses, trucks, and tractors as of five years from now. We need to ban their usage as of 15 years from now. We need to ban the use of fossil fuels for concrete five years from now and the production of electricity from fossil fuels. 

       It is very likely that billions of humans will die many years prematurely this century due to global warming. There are seven billion on Earth now and probably another 13 billion will be born this century. No one wants to admit that billions will die of starvation as most of the current farmlands of the world will turn into desert including the U.S. Midwest and South. It's about time that Skeptical Science starts reporting this.

       We must work quickly to save as many human and animal lives as we can. We must all give up beef and dairy today if you haven't already. Even seafood and pork have footprints which are simply too high. We all should only buy EV cars and only buy renewable energy electricity. We should eliminate our gas water heaters and stoves today. We need to give up flying on airplanes completely. And we have to elect Democrats, because Republicans have sold their souls to the fossil fuel industry, America be damned. Death is rushing at us. Don't be so optimistic. Scientific research shows that pessimists live longer, probably because they take things more seriously.

25155. Elmwood at 04:43 AM on 10 March 2016
       Why We Need to Keep 80 Percent of Fossil Fuels in the Ground
       

       it is hopeless, even obama advocates for an "all of the above" approach to fossil fuel consumption, and at least he admits there's a problem. it only gets worse from there.

       rich and powerful people want to keep us enslaved to fossil fuels, they are not going to voluntarily agree to massively subsidize renewable energy.

25156. One Planet Only Forever at 01:04 AM on 10 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       Tom Curtis @6:

       I agree that there is also the "Sensationalism Sells" motivation behind new media providers. And that is a significant part of how a new media provider may 'try to get attention'. But the report is regarding the behaviour of major established media in the US.

       Some "Sensationalism Sells" infuence exists even for the major media. However, there is little doubt that Murdoch has set up (and potentially even directs), Fox to report in accordance with his personal preference, and he definitely has a history of a misguided (misinforming) and denialist (deliberate attempts to discredit) attitude toward climate science. And there is no doubt that American Exceptionalism and the desire of many people in the US to gobble up appealing lies like President George Bush telling them 'they did not have to change how they lived' when he announced that the US would not be formally signing onto Kyoto (I remember how apalled I was when I watched him say it, but I cannot find a video or speech transcript).

       The types like Bush desired that US citizens believe they did not have to reduce their pursuit of reward from the burning of fossil fuels. And they still desire that belief to be maintained any way they can get away with, because 'pursuing maximum personal reward any way they can get away with for as long as they can get away with (cheaper and quicker without regard for advancing humanity to a better future for all)' is their chosen 'purpose in life'. It is the truly exceptional damaging and ultimately unsustainable attitude that is still fermetting and growing in pockets in the US and being exported (encouraged to develop) around the world in other potentially fertile regions (like Alberta, Canada) to grow and affect the future of humanity like a cancer, virus or bacterial disease thoughtlessly spreading and growing without any concern about its actual impacts. But unlike those unthinking trouble-makers, these people are able to be aware of the trouble they make and will deliberately try to get away with making it, including deliberately limiting the growth of awareness and understanding that is contrary to their interests, any way they can get away with including influencing what gets presented by the major media providers.

25157. bozzza at 14:37 PM on 9 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       You can't say my remarks are irrelevant when you take sentences out of context and indeed capitalise words that were half way through said sentence as if it were the start of a sentence. Then you missed the full-stop to complete the faux pas!

       Saying all that you were right: I was ranting and just asking people to read up on the Jevons Paradox... a controversial little article now you got me to read a little bit more of it.

25158. bozzza at 14:21 PM on 9 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       @ 7, fair enough.

       I didn't realise Miami was doing this and the problem is actually a clear and present danger. I mean I suspected it was but didn't actually know...

25159. chriskoz at 13:55 PM on 9 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       bozzza@12,

       What point are you trying to argue in this article or its comment thread?

       Jevons_paradox

       ...occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand.

       And later:

       Conservation policies (such as cap and trade) do not display the paradox, and can be used to control the rebound effect

       Whilst, in the article, Riduna is trying to point out that FF can be made redundant/displaced by a competing technology (renewables). There is no mention of increased efficiency of coal use that your argument of Jevons would apply. No such topic in any comment either. Unless you clarify how you relate your argument of Jevons to the topic at hand, I conclude your comment is an irrelevant rambling with no substance.

25160. John Hartz at 12:15 PM on 9 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       Supplemental reading:

       Analysis of 50 major newspapers reveals relative drop in media attention at December UN conference compared with 2009 event

       Why did Paris climate summit get less press coverage than Copenhagen? by Alex Pashley, Climate Home, Mar 8, 2016

25161. John Hartz at 11:55 AM on 9 March 2016
       Mapped: The sensitivity of the world’s ecosystems to climate
       

       Supplemental reading:

       New research exposes urgent need to transform key agriculture regions across Africa by as early as 2025 by CIAT* Comunicaciones, Mar 7, 2016

       *International Center for Tropical Agriculture

25162. Riduna at 03:49 AM on 9 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       jsousa36

       You are quite right but Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to limit its oil pumping to no more than the (record) level it was pumping in January 2016.  Text has been amended to show this.

25163. michael sweet at 03:28 AM on 9 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       Jenna:

       PBS and Miami Herald (cost estimate $500 million).  Many hits on Google.  These efforts will only help them for a little while, the ground is porous and the water cannot be held back.

25164. jenna at 03:15 AM on 9 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       @michael sweet

       "Miami Beach is spending hundreds of millions of dollars now to pump the ocean back."

       Do you have a link or reference to go along with that statement? Thx.

25165. michael sweet at 03:08 AM on 9 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       Bozza:

       An army that solely focused on killing the enemy and neglected its supply line would not last very long in the field.  

       Miami Beach is spending hundreds of millions of dollars now to pump the ocean back.  These costs will only rise as sea level, flooding rains, strong hurricanes and other problems caused by AGW increase.

25166. Tom Dayton at 02:36 AM on 9 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       Carl Mears has responded to criticisms (mostly Roy Spencer's) of the RSS 4.0 update. (Hat tip to barry at Open Mind)

25167. Tom Curtis at 01:51 AM on 9 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       OPOF @5, we need not assume direct editorial input to account for the astonishing anti-scientific bias in so much new media.  In essence, the AGW denier strategy (borrowed from the cigarette companies and creationists before them) is manufacture controversy.  As long as the science is considered controversial, it will be considered premature to frame policy on it.  Hence the deniers absolute hatred of any quantification of the consensus of climate scientists agreeing with global warming.

       On the other hand, the mantra of news organizations is that controversy sells copy.

       There is a natural synergy here such that for purely commercial reasons, new media will inflate the significance of, and give undue prominence to the 'mavericks', ie, the 1 or 2% of climate scientists and their non-scientist promoters over the consensus as determined by the IPCC.

25168. Tom Curtis at 01:39 AM on 9 March 2016
       The global warming 'pause' is more politics than science
       

       steve222 @18, the temperatues series start in late 1978 because that was when the first satellite used for the data started operation (later for the TUT channel).  

       There are two key tricks with the satellite data.  First, the TMT data (and hence the TLT) data which is derived from that channel, draws a significant amount of its temperature information from the lower stratosphere, which is cooling.  So much so that the TLS channel shows a trend of -0.259 K per decade to the end of 2015.

       

       The second is that the satellite data shows an exagerated (and delayed) response to ENSO events, and volcanoes relative to surface temperature data.  When viewing the full record, that makes the noise and hence the standard error large when calculating trends.  When truncating the data to start from 1997 as deniers often do, it gives a false indication of no trend where in fact a trend actually exists.

       For what it is worth, the NOAA TMT trend to the end of 2015 is 0.123 K/decade, which is far from flat.  The TLT trend would be larger.

        

       One further nuance worth noting is that the weighting function above is actually calculated for the US Standard Atmosphere.  The actual atmospheric weights observed will vary depending on altitude of the land surface, and latitude.  The later is because convection carries the air mass much higher in the tropics, which lifts the peak weight of the weighting function to a higher altitude.  That is why for Fu and Johansson's TTT channel (and artificial channel determined by a linear composition of TMT and TLS data), they use different weights for the TMT and TLS channels for global average, and tropical data.  The practical effect is that satellites do not measure the temperatures of the same altitude band of the atmosphere at different locations across the globe.

       As warming of the air causes the height of the atmosphere to increase, it will also change the weighting function.  That is, a positive temperature trend in the troposphere will result in the satellites using data from progressively higher (and hence cooler) sections of the atmosphere.  I know that this effect is not compensated for in the various satellite temperature products.  I do not know that it is a significant effect.  That is, its effect on trends may well be only -0.00001C/decade or less for all I know.  Worse, increasing CO2 warms the troposphere (causing it to rise) but cools the stratosphere (causing it to shrink) thereby increasing the stratospheric contamination of the TMT channel over time.  Again, I have no idea of the magnitude of this effect.  I just mention these possibilities to highlight that it is far from straight forward to assume the various satellite temperature products represent a reliable record of tropospheric temperatures.

25169. One Planet Only Forever at 01:18 AM on 9 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       ryland,

       Many multi-mass-media owners definitely control and direct their enterprises to pursue personal objectives while maximizing profit. Very few strive to better inform to advance humanity to a lasting better future (and many will try to use the term sustainable as Green-washing. In Alberta the businesses involved in the undeniably unsustainable production of coal, oil and gas for burning claim to be pursuing sustainable development).

       Those media leaders do not try to get everyone to watch or read their product. They try to appeal to identifiable audience types that can be sold to marketers who want focused access to that type of audience (and many marketers, particularly the deliberately misleading ones, want access to an audience that is willing to be easily impressed and is likely to have money to spend or would try to get a loan or credit card and run up debt for something they have been fooled into 'wanting - believing they need it').

       And there can be no doubt that getting away with cheaper desired things is appealing, so it is natural to expect it to be easy for people who gamble on benefiting from an unsustainable damaging activity like burning fossil fuels to succeed in their attempts to drum up support for keeping their unacceptable activities 'permitted, desired and cheap'.

       And media can also be significantly controlled by the lure of advertising revenue.

       The real problem is that advancing humanity to a 'lasting better future for all' is not as profitable as getting away with less acceptable pursuits, and it is easier to drum up popular support for damaging unsustainable activity because people can easily be tempted to 'want more reward for themselves and will not want to understand how unacceptable their desires are' (greedy people share that deliberate desire to not better understand things with intolerant people claiming to be religious, that is why greedy people commonly partner with intolerant people behind a potentially popular political Brand, they know they need each other's support because they fundamentally know their attitudes are unacceptable and have no real future).

25170. boba10960 at 23:55 PM on 8 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       Perhaps the problem is broader than the news media. I work at a university in the U.S. Recently one of my colleagues returned from a visit to a major U.S. university. Yesterday he was describing to me his discouragement over the fact that the school devoted to sustainability at the university he visited seemed uninterested in including climate or global warming within their purview. Of course other factors are important, such as renewable energy and recycling, but it seems odd that a school of sustainability would not consider climate within its scope. Has there been a failure to communicate well enough that sustainability is intimately linked to global warming?

25171. steve222 at 22:42 PM on 8 March 2016
       The global warming 'pause' is more politics than science
       

       Slighly OT I suspect, but (long term reader, first comment) I just received email from skeptic friend in response to a piece he read on NOAA Tropsphere data. Why does it start around 1980 on most charts. WHat happens if you go back further? He claims it shows no warming. I suspect it is just  amatter of different methods, but dont remember it being directly addressed here. Thanks.

       Steve

25172. bozzza at 18:08 PM on 8 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       Yeh, America has bigger problems than climate change.

       It also means clever operators get everyone else to do the heavy lifting and then buy your patents when you can't make the business plan work.

       In war you solve the problem that's going to kill you first,.. and that aint climate change.

25173. ryland at 17:29 PM on 8 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       One Planet Only Forever  @1 It isn't so much that the media cannot be expected to strive to raise awareness but that the media is allowing climate change awareness to fall out of the public consciousness.  If I may digress a little and Dana, if you read this, a comment from an American would be appreciated.  I live in Australia and was asked what I thought of Donald Trump. I said I didn't don't know much about him  but then said it doesn't matter what I think but why, according to the reports, are so many Americans  voting for him?  Presumably they must like what he is saying which, as far as I can gather is very non-PC and lacks any sort of finesse.  

       Back on topic. Trump has said this about climate change:

       "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."    

       If a very high profile candidate for the POTUS with a lot of Americans voting for him in the Presidential rimaries says this,  it may be a significant number of Americans are no longer engaged with climate change and the media is reflecting this lack of interest.

25174. bozzza at 15:22 PM on 8 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       Ask yourself: what is Jevons Paradox?

       This is a regulated markets failure!! The free-market ideal is exactly that: an idea that exists only within your head. Year 11 economics dictates that all government intervention into the market place makes that government intervention more difficult to withdraw when it finally realises that the wrong winner had been picked.

       This is because the mixed market economy has evolved around that previous intervention, making the hypothetical invisible-hand of market forces inefficient.

       If markets aren't regulated then its pirate ship diplomacy aka anarchy!

       Go the witches wand of Hollywood. By that I mean that: we are all asleep at the wheel and had kids for no reason!!

25175. One Planet Only Forever at 14:13 PM on 8 March 2016
       During the most important year for climate news, TV coverage fell
       

       Media that is owned by people interested in maximizing the personal rewards they can accrue in their lifetime (which typicaly involves trying to get away with activity contrary to the advancement of humanity to a lasting better future for all), and media that relies on attracting an audience that would result in them getting advertising revenue from those type of people, cannot be expected to strive to raise awareness of the best understanding of what is going on and the changes required to advance global humanity to alasting better future (because that would be contrary to the interests of the people they are beholden to and strive to appeal to).

25176. timknab at 11:43 AM on 8 March 2016
       The last time carbon dioxide concentrations were around 400ppm: a snapshot from Arctic Siberia
       

       Tom Curtis, AWESOME explanation on CO2 curtailment/cessation...let's hope we make these changes ASAP before the worst of the worst...

25177. John Hartz at 11:16 AM on 8 March 2016
       No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
       

       Supplemental reading:

       Lamar Smith: Still Fishing With Dynamite by Phil Plait, Bad Astonomy, Mar 7, 2016

25178. John Hartz at 11:11 AM on 8 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       More supplemental reading:

       Ted Cruz’s favorite argument about climate change just got weaker by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Mar 7, 2016

25179. hank at 04:22 AM on 8 March 2016
       GWPF throws out centuries of physics, climate scientists laugh, conservative media fawns
       

       > that statistical model to forecast future temperature changes.

       > It’s an approach that’s been used to predict financial market

       > changes, for example.

       You omitted the word "unsuccessfully" there.

25180. jbpawley at 00:46 AM on 8 March 2016
       Mapped: The sensitivity of the world’s ecosystems to climate
       

       Hi Will,

       As I understand it, this study doesn't measure drought per se, but the sensitivity of thhe local plants to climate. In the case of Syria, I think that the answer may be that although the ecosystem may only be medium-sensitive to climate, the system itself is also so marginal for producing any plant life (as seen in the background of the news photos) that beyond a threshold, a small amount climate change was enough to tip it over the edge. Of course, this doesn't mean that NOTHING would grow, only that farmers could no longer make a living from what they could grow. Here things get complex because the economic viability of farms is affected by variables other than local climate. The massive collapse of small "corn and beans" farms in  Mexico was probably caused less by climate change and more by the sudden availablility of cheap imported food from the US driven by NAFTA. Then the force driving emmigration became not so much lack of food as the lack of any money to buy it.

25181. José M. Sousa at 00:33 AM on 8 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       Russia is not a OPEC member

25182. chriskoz at 22:49 PM on 7 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       sauer, I totally agree with you. CO2 pollution is a classic example of Tragedy of the Commons, which is a free market failure. Players on such a failed market will continue to pollute without a price correction (e.g. fee & divident) and/or env regulations.

       Taking other examples of Tragedy of the Commons from history: whales would have been hunted to extinction if they were not protected, acid rains would still be falling if filtering regulations were not imposed, ozone would have been destroyed if CFC were not banned.

       There is no reason to believe CO2 pollution is any different: if anything, it is a worse TOC than the examples I quoted above because it is more widespread and necessary byproduct of virtually every economy today. A free market, especially US-style, can only aggravate such TOC problem, therefore the failed market must be corrected, at least until a transformed economy renders the pollutant obsolete (we are far far away from that in case of FF). Possibly longer: even today, whale hunting must remain under strict control, otherwise they would be hunted to extinction just for sport. I concur that american thugs would make sure FF burnout continues "just for fun", even if solar was abundant & available for free. That's because FF burning can be more "spectacular" than renewables, by thje same token eg. ferrari turbo engine is more spectacular than electric motor. Strict regulations must keep the desires of such thugs curbed if we want to control CO2 pollution.

25183. Elmwood at 16:17 PM on 7 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       The average inflation adjusted oil price for the last 100 years or so is about $40/bbl. Oil prices are rising now and will likely be above $40 by the end of the year. maybe in a few years they will be back up to $80.
       i don't think renewables will have any effect given the speculation and geopolitics that are involved.

       COP 21 was a joke and there is basically no to little support for drastically cutting fossil fuel consumption in this country. besides bernie, who will most certainly not win the election, nobody running for POTUS cares.

25184. John Hartz at 06:04 AM on 7 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       Supplemental reading:

       Adjusted satellite data derails one of Cruz’s arguments against climate change by Elizabeth Koh, Dallas Morning Herald, Mar 6, 2016

25185. One Planet Only Forever at 02:44 AM on 7 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       While TMT and TTT are scientifically interesting things to better understand, it is clearly the trend in TLT (the values below more of the excess CO2 known to be the result of burning fossil fuels and deforestation to grow commodities that already fortunate people can profit and benefit more from), that would be more relevant as a comparison to the trend of global average surface temperatures (which is clearly the more relevant surface temperature data, particularly the surface data evaluations that include the polar regions since satellite evaluations do not include the polar regions).

       It is also interesting, but not really relevant to the evaluation of the impact of excess CO2 from human burning of fossil fuels, that UAH (Spencer and Christy) have recently presented their evaluation of the RSS update (on Dr. Roy Spencer's website), but chose to first report their evaluation of TMT. They have pointed out a couple of reasons they would consider UAH TMT more 'accurate' than RSS TMT. And it appears they wish to imply that their cherry-picked points of critcism in the TMT evaluation by RSS should be the basis for deciding which method of 'guessing how to manipulate the satellite data to represent temperature values' is the better one (with the default claim being that the interpretation of satellite data that UAH is currently on version 6 of is somehow the only valid measure of the human impacts - which isn't really their claim because their presentations to date appear to be based on the fundamental position that the burning of fossil fuels is not a matter of concern and their job is to develop and deliver the 'best possible information in support of that preferred belief').

       Clearly, a major impediment to the advancement of humanity continues to be the potential for people who have little interest in advancing humanity to a lasting better future for all to knowingly abuse deliberately deceptive marketing to drum up unjustifiable popular support for irresponsible, unsustainable and damaging economic and political actions. The wealthiest and most influential among these people understand that the required changes to advance humanity would include stopping 'their callous greedy pursuits of personal reward any way they can get away with'. Their motivation is clarly to try anything they think they can get away with to delay the advancement of human understanding and development of a lasting better future for all, including trying to focus the discussion heard about by the general population on the trends of a selective method of determining TMT from satellite data. The objective is to create the impression that the less reliable and less relevant satellite TMT evaluations are strong evidence that any trend in the global average surface temperature data is wrong (it is also an attempt to distract attention from the other clear indications of the unacceptable results of the massive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation being gotten away with for the benefit of already fortunate people to the detriment of the future of humanity).

25186. Bob Loblaw at 00:51 AM on 7 March 2016
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       bicyclebob:

       Glenn's comment not-withstanding, but yes spectral radiation is typically expressed in units that include a "per unit length" term. If you think of total energy flux  in the radiation as W/m^2 (1 Joule per second, for each m^2 of surface), when you divide that total into a "per wavelength" - i.e. spectral - distribution, you are of necessity divding by the units "wavelength" is measured in. Micrometers or nanometers are common, but there is nothing odd about centimetres, so you get the cm^-1 term. When you integrate over all wavelengths to get a total, you are multiplying wavelength times the "per wavelength" units and cancelling them back out.

       Although Beer's Law (the equation you give) is appropriate for determining the absorption of the IR radiation, the emission of IR becomes more complex, as Glenn states. Although absorptivity = emissivity at a specific wavelength for a specific gas, actual emission involves temperature, too.

25187. sauerj at 22:01 PM on 6 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       Riduna, I live in midwest US, the heart of a country that "doesn't have a clue", the "joke of the world" (increasingly so these last couple months).

       I am not trying to be a troll or argue against you; I am just being a sad-hearted realist. 1) You mention that solar is 'cost free'. Yes, operating cost is free (unless you have to pay for backup power, likely in US); but capital cost is hardly free (and capital cost is the big deal here, required to get us over the 'conversion' hump). A PV conversion will cost me $10k-$15k installed (link). Even if that were to drop to $5k (there will be too many other installation/labor costs to fall below that), the average US clueless thug would never even consider such a move if the price of FF grid power stays low (my assumption based on the impetus of this article). 2) EV's: Even a CO2 aware guy like me is still going to likely buy a low priced, used small gas car ($15k) versus an EV ($35k in 2017); I simply can not afford to justify the difference. And, I can guarantee you that the average US thug will go buy a Hummer with gas still at $1.50/gal and not even consider an EV.

       I am in full agreement that FF's need to go (not trying to be a troll here); I just know people in the US, and I know that as long as FF's are cheap they will use all they can afford plus, in addition, use all the renewable energy they can afford (as they become cheaper).  That's my point here; people will just add on more energy usage if it is cheap. In other words, they will consume even more energy per person than they are consuming now, with still a very large chunk of that being FF's. They will buy more gadgits and more useless crap until they have drained all their finances; and cheap FF's will only feed that insatiable consumption.

       I remain very skeptical that things are going to get any better (any significant drop in CO2 generation) until FF's are priced to include future costs (CFD). ... Trust me, I do hope that I am wrong, very wrong! But, I really doubt it! I just know the typical, average US mind, and it isn't even close to understanding or caring! It knows just one thing: consume! Just look at the average electorate; need I say more! ... Peace brother!

25188. tmbtx at 20:46 PM on 6 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       I feel like this public examination of the satellite data's limits and uncertainties is finally catching up with the Cruz's abuse of that data. I've been trying find information on why RSS is different for several years now and it's been hard to find. Glad that gap is finally closing.

25189. Glenn Tamblyn at 16:42 PM on 6 March 2016
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       bicyclebob
       
       No, it isn't per a single cm-1 wide, it is much narrower than that. And no, the absorption coefficient isn't just the inverse of the spectral intensity. And at that point everything gets a lot more complicated.
       
       SpectralCalc have a description of some of the calculations and theory here. But I suspect getting to Beer-Lambert from this still involves more stuff.
       
       It always amazes me how simple rules and laws always end up being so complex when we look under the hood.

25190. bicyclebob at 16:23 PM on 6 March 2016
       Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
       

       Comment 191 shows a graph of log intensity with the units cm^2/cm-mol.  I assuming that I(l,v) = I(0,v)) x 10^(-a x C x l), where I(l,v) is the intensity of radiation of frequency v at distance l, a is the absorption coefficient, and C is the concentration of the gas, presumably in moles/cm^3.  Am I correct in assuming that the intensity is per a wavelength band one reciprocal cm in width?  Am I also correct in assuming that if the log intensity in the units given is -20, then the absorption coefficient is 20.  Finally, if I want to compute the IR emissivity, can I just use the Beer's law equation multiplied by the energy per photon and the Boltzmann ratio of excited to ground state at the temperature of the gas?  It has been a very long time since I have done these kinds of calculations, and I am not sure I am properly understanding what I am reading.

25191. Glenn Tamblyn at 14:37 PM on 6 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       martin
       
       Possibly. TMT, even with the new Diurnal Drift adjustments, still has a significant stratosperic signal included with it. Their TTT product (also V4.0) attempts to remove some of this.
       
       An interesting comparison might be TTT vs surface in the Tropics.

25192. Riduna at 12:42 PM on 6 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       Sauerj - You raise the point that persistently low prices for fossil fuels would result in their wider use, higher greenhouse gas emissions and delay use of solar to generate clean energy.

       This would be the case were it not for the fact that solar energy is relatively cost-free. Its use is presently limited by the efficiency and cost of available technology to use solar energy to generate and store electricity – rather than the cost of fossil fuels. At $50/tonne or less smaller and less efficient coal mines cease production and at less than $30/bbl it is not profitable to pump oil - but the sun continues to shine, delivering energy everywhere.

       Advances in photvoltaic cell efficiency is rapidly approaching a point where the cost of solar generated electricity is less than use of coal or oil, even at their present depressed prices. Battery and other technology enable production of electric vehicles which are increasingly competitive with vehicles fuelled by fossil fuels, both in terms of performance and cost. If you had $25,000 and could choose between an EV, range 500k per charge, and a fossil fuelled vehicle, which would you choose? Most business and vehicle owners do not care where their energy needs come from or how it is produced – as long as it is the cheapest available and reliable. They will abandon fossil fuelled energy for solar as the latter becomes increasingly competitive due to technological advances. Those advances are now being made with growing momentum and will result in wider demand for and use of electricity – not fossil fuels.

25193. Riduna at 12:40 PM on 6 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       Miguelito - Japan and USA were both significant LNG importers in 2014 but are now exporters and in 2015 China’s consumption of LNG fell by 1.1%. So no surprise that global consumption of LNG fell in 2015 or that this added to a market already awash with hydrocarbons. This is now being aggravated by new LNG production facilities in Australia and Qatar starting production in 2016. In the absence of increased demand, this addition to the LNG glut is likely to prolong depressed prices. Over the next decade, LNG will have to compete with solar generated electricity, likely to be delivered and stored more cheaply than LNG. Customers will opt for the cheapest form of energy available. That is likely to be clean solar generated electricity rather than CO2 emitting LNG.

25194. martin3818 at 06:48 AM on 6 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       Does RSS 4.0 have any bearing on the existence or non-existence of the tropospheric hotspot?

25195. sauerj at 02:46 AM on 6 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       Sorry, a lower FF price does not encourage me. The driving force for energy users to move off of FF only gets less attractive as the cost of FF drops. I would rather see a rise in FF price and, at the same time, a drop in sales. If this were the case, then this would be true evidence that economic incentives were truly moving in the right direction to eradicate FF usage.

       The metric that is missing here is demand and not just by each individual energy type but total demand presented as CO2 produced by all FF combustion (i.e. coal may be going down, but is gas simply taking its place). Until the CO2 generation metric actually starts to drop, we are only eluding ourselves that man is actually getting off FF's. This metric is, in the end, all that matters.

       My worry is that as FF prices drop (w/ little economic incentive to actually quit using them), renewable energies will simply be "added on" to man's array of energies. As a result, man will only invent new & more ways to use yet more energy (per person), resulting in still using all of the FF energy he was previously using PLUS the additional renewable energy. This has been man's trend as new a different & lower cost energy options have come economically available (he just consumes more & more). 

       For me, the only truly effective means to really get the job done is CFD (carbon fee & dividend). We have got to price FF's to include true costs (which include future costs). ... Please join CCL (Citizen's Climate Lobby); I believe it is the main activist group that has Fee & Dividend legislation as its primary goal. Click on link to became a member & join a local chapter today!!!

25196. malkazoid at 21:57 PM on 5 March 2016
       It's methane
       

       Deathtokoalas - that's a lot of factors you're asking us to ignore, and they are factors that are not being dealt with so I'm not sure why we should ignore them.  What matters it the current impact of agriculture, not what it could be if we wished away various aspects of it, wouldn't you say?

       Your argument is misleading.  Increased rumination due to our apetite for animal flesh puts methane and the resulting CO2 and water vapor into the atmosphere.  This is the bottom line - as long as these animals release gas, this will remain true.  Where would the constituents of methane be if they were not being farted out?  They would be in trees that would be, on net, absorbing CO2 instead of releasing it.  When the trees die, their carbon returns beneath ground (unless we burn the wood).

       So the effect of clearing massive swathes of forest (which is not being offset by replanting), plus pushing carbon from plant growth into methane and up into the atmosphere, is not neutral at all... or am I missing something?

25197. Miguelito at 14:15 PM on 5 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       So, I've gone and looked and, contrary to what i believed, demand actually fell 2% in 2015, which surprises me (Asian demand was falling, but European imports doubled). So you're right about that.

       But, still, the big driver in the fall in prices is the big growth in supply and the drop in oil prices. Even if demand had been flat, or even slightly growing, it still wouldn't have been able to keep up with the growth in supply.

25198. Miguelito at 13:38 PM on 5 March 2016
       Will Fossil Fuel Prices Fully Recover?
       

       Oh, and importantly, the price of LNG used to be linked to oil prices in Asia in what they used to call the Japanese crude cocktail. But, with the big drop in oil prices, that price support is gone as well.

       So, there are lots of reasons why LNG prices have fallen and it isn't because of declining demand.

25199. nigelj at 12:30 PM on 5 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       One Panet  Only @1.

       I broadly agree. Cruz's  core supporters will be slow to change their views. They are the modern equivalent of the flat earth society, and will not change until temperatures are truly off the scale. Cruz is manipulating them for political purposes.

       Cruz is locked into his views now, and wont want to lose face by admitting he was wrong. Basically the science is unfortunately being dominated or sidelined by a huge range of social / political forces and human failings.

25200. wili at 11:05 AM on 5 March 2016
       Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
       

       Mann has said the spike we are seeing cannot be explained by El Nino alone. Besides underlying, ongoing GW, might we be seeing some result of the removal of some of the 'aerosol umbrella' of coal plant aerosols now that China's economy is slowing down and since it is supposedly working to close down the dirtiest coal plants?

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