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dagold at 05:04 AM on 13 February 2016The new age of climate exploration
Thank you for the article. I even went to the "optomist/pessimist" cite that you linked. And....this may put me in the pessimist camp but - as far as I am aware there are abosultely none - zero - financial sanctions or penalties connected to NOT honoring the commitments made in Paris. Without agreed upon and 'hammered out in iron' economic penalties for nations opting out, I see this entire 'accord' as simply fantasy. I dearly hope that events on the ground prove me wrong. If they do, I shall be quite surprised. (see, for example, the U.S. Supreme court just blocking the one and only climate policy with some actual teeth that Obama put out - and the obstructionists in Congress and the courts are not going away anytime soon).
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Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
NecktopPC - A Guilt by Association fallacy (perhaps better described as Poisoning the Well) is your response to Abu-Asab et al 2001? That's no argument at all. And linking only the current bloom schedule is a red herring - the opening post is about climate trends.
If you have genuine issues with that Abu-Asad et al's methodology (which is quite simple, really) or their conclusions (difficult to see how, simple statistics), preferrably supported by some published literature, great, it might be interesting to discuss. The same goes for growth regions published by the USDA - I'm sure farmers would love to avoid changing crops due to shifting hardiness zones, and would eagerly await actual evidence for climate stability.
However, throwing out nothing but logical fallacies seems to indicate you have no actual evidence backing your posts.
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NecktopPC at 00:12 AM on 13 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
KR - There are some in the scientific community that do not hold Springer in high esteem; claiming that the "journal has published some real gems."
RE: "The times, and the plant zones, they are a-changing."
Here is a Blooming schedule: http://www.nps.gov/chbl/cherry-blossom-bloom.htm
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Tom Curtis at 18:37 PM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Further information, and comments.
First, Larry Marshall clarified the restructure on Monday 8th here. Amongst other things he said:
"In our Oceans and Atmosphere business we have about 420 staff, not 140 as reported by some media, and after these changes we expect to have about 355, contrary to media reports. We asked business unit leaders to focus their operational plans on growth, and growth within finite resources will always initially lead to making choices about what to exit. However, as painful as any redundancy is, for the majority of the 5,200 CSIRO employees there will be no change to their current circumstances as a result of these plans, and we will also recruit new people with new skills."
This, however, seems like misdirection to me. Specifically, the 100 full time positions lost from the Oceans and Atmosphere section will be lost from just two out of five units. Both are heavilly focussed on climate research. The question is, how many staff are their in the two units that will sustain the losses? Larry Marshall does not answer, and the answer it probably 140. Marshall merely distracts us by inflating the denominator.
Marshall goes on:
"The second area of correction is our ability to support climate measurement in Australia. Cape Grim and RV Investigator are not under threat from these changes. The Cape Grim air pollution monitoring station which is a source of much of our greenhouse gas information will continue to be that source. Our climate models have long been and will continue to be available to any researcher and we will work with our stakeholders to develop a transition plan to achieve this. The RV Investigator, operated by CSIRO for scientists from Australia and around the world as a state of the art research facility will continue to operate scientific voyages, gathering data every day at sea. We also have an air archive which is a resource available to any researcher to investigate air changes over time. We will also continue our contribution to the international Argo floats program which provides thousands of datapoints for temperature and salinity of our oceans; and we’ll be investing more in autonomous vehicles, using innovation to collect more data than ever before."
While happy to hear that Cape Grim will survive, I am less than sanguine about the other reassurances. RV Investigator is a multi-function research vessel and can continue its voyages very easilly without any research on climate (focussing instead on ecology, for instance). Nor does a continued contribution to the Argo floats program assure us that the level of contribution will remain the same. Finally, the phrasing of the assurance regarding the climate model suggests that it will not be used by CSIRO researchers, merely that it will be available to others (of which more later). More important, it contains no assurance of the continued development and testing of the model, without which it will be obsolete in 4-5 years.
Ryland above reffers us to the Senate Estimates hearings, for which (unfortunately) a transcript is not yet available. The SMH, however, reported on the hearings. From them we learn that:
1) An original document planning this restructuring indicated the need for the loss of only 35 positions from Ocean and Atmosphere, which can reasonably be taken as the number of cuts necessary to impliment the restructure without loss of significant, relevant capacity. Apparently the increase from 35 to 100 positions was a top down position made without familiarity with the research being cut.
'"Those numbers of 100 are very round," said one senior researcher, who had watched the live stream of the hearing and whose work may face the chop. "What was the rationale for coming up with them? We still don't know."'
2) The board was told of the level of cuts involved in the restructure just two days before the public announcement. From that it is clear that this was not a decision made in consultation with the board, and ergo also not a decision whose rational has been tested by independent scrutiny.
3) The executives making the decision had not adequately informed themselves of the details of the operations and research they were cutting. This is evident in their having made several errors about that research in responding to Senate Estimates. In particular:
"For instance, they initially said the key Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model jointly worked on by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO was "open-sourced", allowing for wide-ranging contributions that might offer the opportunity for savings."
A belief that the software was open access may well have contributed to a belief that the CSIRO "climate models have long been and will continue to be available to any researcher" even while cutting the staff that operate those models (see Marshall's clarrification, and discussion above).
This is fairly crucial in that Senate Estimates is the only indepedant scrutiny of the suitability of the restructure, and for the exectives to not have the basic facts underlying the restructure at their fingertips for Senate Estimates shows the numbers were chosen independent of an actual analysis of the number of staff needed to be retained for the capability Marshall claims will be maintained. His clarrification is therefore revealed more as a statement of faith than something of which he can genuinely reassure us based on analysis. Worse, his faith inflated by a factor of three the number of cuts an actual analysis showed to be appropriate.
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ryland at 13:54 PM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
mancan18@18 Your comment "It seems that the economic rationalist LNP Australian Government wants to embrace fund cutting policies that reduce the level of scientific expertise in Australia while at the same time beating the mantra of innovation." The cuts to the CSIRO were under the aegis of Tony Abbott. The "mantra of innovation" is from Turnbull.
Compare like with like?
Your obsdervation "But then again, it's all about the accounting, not the scientific reality."is equally applicable to the personnel changes at CSIRO. However at today's Senate hearing the CEO of CSIRO said ""that CSIRO would ensure "vital" modelling and monitoring of climate change would continue.".
Is all this angst premature?
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Tom Curtis at 10:53 AM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
On the same topic, funglestrumpet @16, it is very dubious that the former British Chancellor of the Exchequer has much direct influence on the Treasury Department of the Commonwealth of Australia, or the Treasurer in the Australian Government. Given the details @19, the idea that this redeployment of CSIRO resources results from the undue influence of Lawson in UK politics is not credible.
For deniers as for supporters of science, this came as a bolt of lightning out of the blue. The only difference is that they while they celebrate the loss of fundamental research on climate, supporters of science regret it.
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ryland at 10:52 AM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Tom Curtis @19 I'm in the process of replying to your earlier comments but I was so taken with your comprehensive and even handed reply to mancan18, to whom I am also crafting a reply, that I had to send this immediately
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Tom Curtis at 10:44 AM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
mancan @18, your comment is excellent all round. However, it does seem to attribute the current changes to the CSIRO to the government.
As it happen, the chief executive of the CSIRO is not appointed directly by government, but by the board of the CSIRO. The Chairman of the Board at the time this was done was, Simon McKeon, was appointed by a Labor government. He raised ire among deniers by his attitude towards Climate Change:
"Despite admitting he has "no scientific pedigree", Mr McKeon says he wants to see the issue of climate change elevated to the top of the political and public agenda.
"We may not have all the answers to what is occurring, we may not have certainly all the solutions to how to fix it," he said.
"But the point is, why wouldn't one take out very strong insurance to at least do what we can to future-proof our well-being? I think it's a no-brainer.""
Even today, nearly half of the board are Labor appointees, and at the time of appointment of Larry Marshall, the majority would have been.
As tempting as it might be to suppose this is an act of the government, it is not. It is the act of an independent manager of the CSIRO, of whom there is no reason to think that he is a denier or influenced by deniers.
There is a contradiction between Prime Minister Turnbull's supposed commitment to innovation and his not reversing Abbott's cuts to the CSIRO - but this decision is not a direct reflection of that contradiction.
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mancan18 at 09:32 AM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Because of these cuts, there will also be a loss of corporate knowledge at the CSIRO. This loss of knowledge and expertise is, justifiably, of concern. Science is a collegiate profession which grows through interaction between scientists, not from scientists just working independent of each other. Change and renewal in collegiate professions should be a gradual process that occurs from the bottom upwards, not from the top downwards otherwise there will be a loss of corporate knowledge. New people coming to the organisation bring new knowledge and those already there bring experience that can best utilise that new knowledge. The modern management practices that have evolved in an age of economic rationalism and neoconservative politics don't seem to account for the nature of collegiate professions. I am a retired educator and have seen the impact and loss of expertise that can occur from gutting from the top rather than renewing from the bottom.
Another factor is that not all the climate scientists who have been at the forefront of climate reasearch in Australia can be necessarily redeployed elsewhere. Their expertise may not easily translate to a different discipline or emphasis. While the CSIRO should not be a welfare agency for scientists who no longer have experise that is relevant to their research, it is not as if the nature of the climate system and the Earth as a global ecosystem is fully understood yet. While the debate has been essentially won in scientific circles, it is not as if the debate has been fully won with the wider community. Reducing the climate science expertise of the CSIRO may also make it easier for climate deniers to continue to cast doubt because as the integrity of independent science is being undermined by reduced funding, corporate funding of vested interest "science" will most likely rise in response to a wider public acceptance of the science. After all funding climate science denial is more a delaying tactic to continue to exploit, what is now, a dwindling dirty resource for a technologically outdated industry.
Also, it seems strange that the Australia Government is happy to fund laboratories to assess whether products meet Australian safety and health standards, even though there are many other assessment laboratories in other countries. I would have thought that studying the climate would be a similar, unless of course the Government doesn't think there are safety and health issues related to a changing climate.
It seems that the economic rationalist LNP Australian Government wants to embrace fund cutting policies that reduce the level of scientific expertise in Australia while at the same time beating the mantra of innovation. It's a bit like their Direct Action climate change policy, funding to reduce emissions while allowing increased emissions. But then again, it's all about the accounting, not the scientific reality.
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BBD at 09:18 AM on 12 February 2016Onset of Eocene Warming Event took 3-4 millennia (so what we’re doing is unprecedented in 66 million years)
Howard Lee
The current thinking is that the PETM is not likely an orbitally forced event even if some of the subsequent hyperthermals may have been.
Yes, and I should have been clear about this. I mentioned DeConto because I'd implied that the PETM wasn't orbitally triggered and didn't want to create the impression that nobody had argued otherwise.
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Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
NecktopPC - Yes, there is yearly and even decadal variation in flowering times everywhere. However, there is also a distinct and statistically significant trend in earlier and earlier blooming, in pole-ward shifting of plant hardiness zones, and claiming it's all due to short term variation is quite frankly nonsense.
Just from my region, see Abu-Asab et al 2001, "Earlier plant flowering in spring as a response to global warming in the Washington, DC, area", noting that those times "...show a significant advance of 2.4 days over a 30-year period [...] Advances of first-flowering in these 89 species are directly correlated with local increase in minimum temperature."
Also see Chung et al 2011, "Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change", noting that "Our results indicate that PBD [Peak Bloom Dates] at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 and 10 days by 2080 for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario."
The times, and the plant zones, they are a-changing. Handwaving like yours doesn't change that.
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howardlee at 06:43 AM on 12 February 2016Onset of Eocene Warming Event took 3-4 millennia (so what we’re doing is unprecedented in 66 million years)
To be clear Both Zeebe's and the Kirtland Turner & Ridgwell study are talking about the initial warming of the PETM and the initial pulse of carbon that caused it.
The current thinking is that the PETM is not likely an orbitally forced event even if some of the subsequent hyperthermals may have been. I covered that in an article in 2014 here.
There's very strong evidence for intense volcanic activity associated with the North Atlantic Igneous Province (yes yet another Large Igneous Province associated with a warming event) ocurring at exactly the time of the PETM, See:
Zircon dating ties NE Atlantic sill emplacement to initial Eocene global warming
These papers are also relevant:
Large igneous provinces and mass extinctions: An update
Development of intra-basaltic lava-field drainage systems within the Faroe–Shetland Basin
Diachronous sub-volcanic intrusion along deep-water margins: insights from the Irish Rockall Basin
Kimberlite eruptions as triggers for early Cenozoic hyperthermals
However, from an isotope signature point of view the methane hydrate source works according to Zeebe, who told me: " I’m still convinced that this methane hydrate hypothesis is working very well in terms of total amount of carbon and in terms of the isotopic signature that we see. I think there is evidence that there could be mud volcanoes in the North Atlantic that could have contributed exactly to methane release during the PETM."
Whereas Ridgwell told me: " It seems it’s all around the time of a lot of enhanced volcanism going on in the North Atlantic and people have suggested, and I’m coming around to the importance of this, of a particular episode of quite extensive volcanism happening in the North Atlantic just at the time of the PETM. So it seems that maybe [the PETM] is a little bit like some of these older events."
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BBD at 05:36 AM on 12 February 2016Onset of Eocene Warming Event took 3-4 millennia (so what we’re doing is unprecedented in 66 million years)
Sorry, DeConto et al. (2012).
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BBD at 05:33 AM on 12 February 2016Onset of Eocene Warming Event took 3-4 millennia (so what we’re doing is unprecedented in 66 million years)
I should have added that there is a hypothesis (DeConto et al. 2010) that orbital forcing triggered the PETM. There is an SkS article about the DeConto study here.
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BBD at 05:28 AM on 12 February 2016Onset of Eocene Warming Event took 3-4 millennia (so what we’re doing is unprecedented in 66 million years)
#1 SteveFunk
I think it's true that CO2 (and CH4) are considered to be feedbacks to orbitally-forced warming (Milankovitch forcing) that is widely regarded as the trigger for Pleistocene deglaciations. In the case of the PETM and other Cenozoic hyperthermals, the CO2 may be the initial cause, so it would be treated as a forcing rather than a feedback. If there was a subsequent large release of CH4 from clathrates, it would be reasonable to treat that as a feedback to the original increase in CO2 forcing.
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SteveFunk at 04:11 AM on 12 February 2016Onset of Eocene Warming Event took 3-4 millennia (so what we’re doing is unprecedented in 66 million years)
What I have always read is that previous warmings were originally caused by other factors but were amplified over time by CO2 as a feedback mechanism. So Zeebe's study does not appear to answer the question of how long it took to establish the original warming or what the magnitude of the original warming was relative to the CO2 feedback.
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John Hartz at 01:05 AM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Supplemental reading:
Funding and job cuts at Australia's climate change research body could undermine the country's goal of dominating the Asian premium food market by placing farmers at a disadvantage to U.S. and European competitors.
Australia's extreme weather means farmers rely heavily on climate change forecasts from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to mitigate the impact of bushfires, cyclones and droughts.
"In the next 30 years we will need to alter our farming habits due to rainfall, heat, drought, soil moisture. Australian farmers need the best data and predictions," said former chief of CSIRO marine research Tony Haymet.
Without such data, Haymet said Australia and its farmers will be "at a disadvantage in the long run".
Thousands of international climate scientists signed a protest letter over the job losses, saying: "If these climate science research cuts at CSIRO proceed without being filled elsewhere, then Australia will not develop its capability to assess the accelerating risks associated with climate change".
Australian cuts to climate change research may hit drive into Asia by Jarni Blakkarly, Reuters, Feb 10, 2016
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funglestrumpet at 00:57 AM on 12 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
I would not be in the least surprised if a certain Nigel Lawson were not to be found at, or very nearby, the root of all this. He is, after all, the nost experienced Conservative ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer whom inexperienced Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osbourne, has access to.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:55 AM on 12 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
@23,
What is despicable is all the smart fortunate people willing to develop and pitch the deliberately misleading marketing.
The misuse of the powerful science of marketing has been far more damaging than the misuse of nuclear science to make weapons (misleading marketing can even be seen to have contribted to the efforts to justify the 'live testing' of the two different types of nuclear bombs the US had developed).
Misleading marketing creating and appealing to personal desires, winning over thoughtful conscientious responsible thinking, is the reason for the growth and prolonging of every pursuit of profit that was able to be made popular in spite of it not having been proven to be providing a lasting benefit for all of humanity. It is also the (lack of ) reason behind almost every violent conflict (most of which can clearly be seen to be illigitimate grabs at wealth and power for the benefit of only a portion of humanity, sold as things like "Defense of Freedom, or Defense of Religion" ... when in reality the promoters of the conflicts are fully aware that they are Offensive).
The greatest threat to humanity is "Misleading Marketing".
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NecktopPC at 00:48 AM on 12 February 2016Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather?
"Daffodils in Bloom"
This has happened before, and especially before all the noteriety regarding global warming. Quite often there may be a warm spell and trees start to bud early, and it gets cold again and the buds die and the tree will bud again, when the buds will sustain.
One needs to realize, that there are several regions of the United Kingdom, which exist, and have done so for many, many, years, in a Sub Tropical Cimate. There are Palm Trees, and other such 'flora', which is endemic to the United Kingdom - thanks in part to the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Drift.
There will be more daddodils to come; in March or April, they will bloom again, just as they have before.
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Tom Curtis at 23:48 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
ryland @13, John Church and Neil White (both with the CSIRO) are among the foremost experts on sea level rise, which is a very closely related field to that of ocean heat content. The CSIRO's observatory at Cape Grim is probably the leading southern hemisphere observatory of CO2 and other trace gas concentrations. It is certainly used by NOAA in developing its global average from measurements in a range of latitudes.
Both groups are in the area lined up for the most cuts, and have work very closely identified with the criteria of what the CSIRO will apparently no longer do. Further, given cuts to US research, that (for example) has meant even Mauna Loa has had to resort to crowd funding to maintain its CO2 observations, the assumption that we can casually dispose of Cape Grim is absurd.
That raises the additional point that the willingness of conservative governments in the US and Canada to shoot the messenger on global warming be defunding science (and in Canada's case, defunding the keeping of scientific data), the assumption that Australian's contribution is now redundant is absurd.
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Tom Curtis at 23:24 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
bozza @various, I will not go into details because it is off topic, and politics to boot; but I agree with Ryland that Abbots 'captain's pick' of a new Lomborg center in Australia had no bearing on his dismissal.
ryland @12, as it happens, research into the link between smoking and cancer continues apace. That is because, the link between smoking and lung cancer is statistically well established, but there are less obvious links with other forms of cancer, but also, because the link between smoking and cancer was established statistically, the exact causal relationship between smoking and cancer has not been established. Therefore crucial research remains to be done which will help in the treating of smoking caused cancers.
In climate science, although the causal link between anthropogenic emissions and global warming is settled science, the exact value of climate sensitivity, the specific effect of clouds as a feedback, and in interaction with aerosols, are only roughly constrained. Further, the process of downscaling model predictions so that predictions at a resolution useful to planners is still in its infancy. Finally, until we have super computers several thousand times faster than the current crop, single model large ensemble experiments are not realistic. Until we can do those, however, we cannot make significant progress in determining which are the more accurate models, and rely on an ensemble of model predictions to determine error ranges on predictions. The CSIRO runs a key model in that ensemble, and its loss would significantly impact the quality of model predictions.
These are issues quite apart from the obvious point that you cannot assess effectiveness of mitigation without the observational measures that were used to discover that mitigation is necessary. I am sure experts in the various fields could think of more relevant factors.
Please note that I do not object to the CSIRO changing its focus. Had an announcement been made that 30 positions would be lost from current climate research to start increasing CSIRO research on mitigation (which already exists), nobody would have batted an eyelid. What has me outraged is the blind managerialism that first determines on vague mantras "we need renewal" how many cuts will be made without, in the first instance, determining which particular research activities are currently productive, and will be into the future; and which are not.
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ryland at 23:23 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
BeerbelW@11. Sorry but I didn't see your post before I posted at 12. With regards to measurements of CO2 concentration and ocean heat, I don't think CSIRO climate scientists were to the fore in either.
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ryland at 22:47 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
After a scan of the internet I can't find much coverage of the CSIRO decision to dismiss/redeploy/give teduncancy to 350 climate scientists. apart from a piece in The Guardian reporting that 600+ scientists from around the worldd have signed a circulatiing letter of protest. Is the fuss in Australia just a storm in a parochial teacup? Just what is it that climate scientists at CSIRO do that isn't or can't be peplicated elsewhere in the world? The link between smoking and cancer is unequivocally proven and there is little if any research focussed on proving that link so is there need to focus on the association between CO2 and climate change as that link icnsidered settled? It seems sensible to say well climate change is here its not going to go away let's see what we can do to mitigate/ameliorate/adapt our lifestyles to its effects. The focus now isn't on the link between smoking and cancer but on how to better diagnose and traet cancer caused by smoking or due to other causes. Why not for climate change ?
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BaerbelW at 22:18 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Doing work on mitigation & adaptation is neccessary but it needs to be done in addition to and not instead of basic climate research. If you no longer collect the basic data like CO2 concentrations or ocean heat how will you ever be able to know that what you do for mitigation actually has the desired effect or that any adaptation will really help?
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ryland at 21:30 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Put the the Bjorn Lomberg episode into context. Nowshere near the level of knghting Prince Philip and it doesn't figure in any of the lists sof his gaffes and blunders.
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bozzza at 20:57 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
(@ ryland, I claim poetic liscence: sorry! No, but seriously...)
I find the truth to be: he had no moral authority as perceived from multiple angles. He was told to change, yes, but I do declare that the seemingly overly-authoritative promotion of propaganda to the detriment UWA's, ...let alone that of the proud anzac legacy and Australia itself, ...name is more than a footnote in that exact story.
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ryland at 20:49 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
bozzza@7 "Abbott just got booted for trying to dedicate hard-fought-for global-university-status to a climate change denier with tax dollars..."
That is just nonsense he got booted because his colleagues told him in February 2015 he had 6 months to change or he'sd berolled. He didn't change and he was rolled
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bozzza at 20:29 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Ok, yes, I do see that you are saying measurement of applied solutions are important.
I suppose I'm simply keenly waiting for more details on this change: we are supposedly the clever country afterall and Abbott just got booted for trying to dedicate hard-fought-for global-university-status to a climate change denier with tax dollars... there are many biting at the bit on this!!
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bozzza at 20:21 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Tom, isn't it time to move to applied science on the matter at hand: that being the problem that is global warming?
(Most things are a communication problem...)
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bozzza at 19:28 PM on 11 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
@27, I have found the most fun to be making deniers refuse to acknowledge the term 'multi-year sea-ice'.... they keep trying to dismiss you with a time series of sea ice!
I love spilling coffee....what can I say!
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bozzza at 19:25 PM on 11 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
Adjustment is not allowed, ever. Nothing vibrates and stagnation is not close to death.... the industrial revolution just happened mannnnnnnnnnnnnnn!! Yay, i can do i-phone graphic design and am not standing on the shoulders of any giants: no mum, promise etc.....
~;^>',,,,<
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Kevin C at 19:18 PM on 11 February 2016Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
planet8788: Accoding to Meinhausen et al, the Montreal gas forcing (CFCs etc) peaked at about 0.32 W/m2 and is projected to drop to about 0.2 W/m2 by 2050. Do you disagree with those figures?
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Tom Curtis at 15:36 PM on 11 February 2016Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
planet8788 @41, based on Gavin Schmidt's calculation, the Hansen 88 GHG concentration trajectories would have resulted in a net forcing increase relative to 1983 of 3.35 W/m^2 for Scenario A, 2.33 W/m^2 for Scenario B, and 1.41 W/m^2 for Scenario C. The actual increase was 2.2 W/m^2, or just below Scenario B and 56% greater than scenario C. More importantly, Scenario C has a slightly declining forcing from 2000, while anthropogenic forcings have continued to rise at an approximately linear rate:
Therefore it is seriously misleading to say "we're still at Scenario C".
Further, and importantly, we are in our present position of a forcing increase slightly below Scenario C in part because of a significant, and ongoing effort to reduce GHG emissions. The correct conclusion, therefore, is not that everything will be fine, but that we need to continue, and indeed strengthen substantially those efforts. In the medium term (30 to 50 odd years), we need to bring net emissions to effectively zero. BAU will not do that. Even a continuation of current mitigation efforts will not do that.
Finally, even if we do that we will reach a mean global temperature close to 2 C above the preindustrial average. Likely even that increase will be significantly harmful, and certainly it will be catastrophic for some. It is just a much better scenario than genuine BAU which, if pursued in the long term would see the tropics become seasonally uninhabitable for large mammals (ie, humans, sheep, cattle, and dogs would die of heat prostation within a few days of unairconditioned exposure to 'normal' heatwaves under that scenario for more than a day or so).
That we are doing very slightly better than what Hansen considered the most likely scenario in 1988 is hardly a great comfort.
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planet8788 at 15:06 PM on 11 February 2016Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
In fact, CFC concentrations are still going down and it looks like they have a long way to go. So that is still going to continue offsetting warming by CO2.
The ocean is absorbing more CO2 than expected. We probably don't have much to worry about. The main wildcard is methane.
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planet8788 at 14:54 PM on 11 February 2016Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
Okay, So, we've increased CO2 emissions and we're still at Scenario C. So we have little to worry about. Becauses CFC emissions aren't going to go back up. CO2 emissions will probably peak by 2030...
The only wildcard is methane. And that is evolving much much slower than expected.
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Tom Curtis at 12:57 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
A response by the head of the CSIRO.
I think his view is wrong headed. I agree we should ramp up studies on mitigation, but:
1) The key policy on mitigation, introducing a carbon price, is already well known, and is more a matter of economics than science; and
2) The impact of more technical fixes (geoengineering) cannot be assessed without the sort of knowledge generated by the division of the CSIRO he is in the process of gutting.
Perhaps he has in mind more specific studies such as research into how to reduce methane emissions from cattle, or rice agriculture; or research into improving renewable energy sources. However, while such research is welcome, with a carbon price it will be driven rapidly by the private sector wheras the basic climate research currently being conducted by the CSIRO will not be.
This is like the reasons he gave in his original statement. Then the cuts were justified, apparently, because staff turnover at the CSIRO was less than in commercial organizations (which is not a reason at all), and because it would create a career path (but apparently in an organization in which careers will be terminated early with little prospect of alternative funding). His belief appears to be that the 9 odd years spent becoming a scientist should be rewarded with careers of a little less than that in order to encourage new students to dedicate that time for a truncated career.
It appears to me that he considers 'renewal' a good thing, without understanding that renewal must be for a reason, and too a purpose. Instead he has put renewal first as a management mantra, made massive changes on that basis with only post hoc justification at best.
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villabolo at 12:37 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
"Posted on 10 February 2016 by [blank]"
The author's name, underneath the title of this article was omitted.
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Tom Curtis at 12:21 PM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
The most important part of this article are the links to the petitions in the final paragraph of the Guardian version. They are with Youth Climate Coallition, and Proud to be public. Please sign one.
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Tom Curtis at 12:13 PM on 11 February 2016Other planets are warming
sjw40364 @41, the last NASA article to which you link states:
"Even more impressive was the substorm's power. Angelopoulos estimates the total energy of the two-hour event at five hundred thousand billion (5 x 1014) Joules. That's approximately equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake."
Averaged over the Earth's surface, that represents 0.00014 W/m^2. For comparison, the reduction in release of energy from the Earth's surface due to the increase in CO2 since the preindustrial is 1.9 +/-0.19 W/m^2. Even the error term of that calculation is 1400 times greater than the "new" energy to which you point.
Worse, this is not newly discovered energy. According to NASA, the Themis spacecraft have "... made three important discoveries about spectacular eruptions of Northern Lights called "substorms" and the source of their power" (emphasis added). They have not made the discovery of substorms themselves, which are well known, and the energy of which are already accounted for in the 889,000 x 10^14 Joules from 1997-2010 (0.00035 W/m^2) discusses by Tenfjord and Ostgaard (and @34 above).
Further, it is not new energy. The Sun has had a solar wind since its inception, and the Earth a magnetic field as far back as paleomagnatism can be discerned (at least 500 million years, and probably at least 4 billion years). This energy, therefore, cannot account for the sudden, rapid rise in global temperatures over the 20th century.
Frankly, you most recent post adds nothing new to the discussion, illustrating only your determination to shut your eyes to counter evidence with regard to your pet theory. (The post before that is even worse, as it grossly misrepresents the facts with regard to warming episodes in the glacial/interglacial cycle and the temperature history of the last 25,000 years.)
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Tadaaa at 09:10 AM on 11 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
@ 23
yes often in the same post, quickly followed by the old "trace" gas and still responible for all biotic life
Heads they win tails you loose - it's denier logic 101
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billr at 08:26 AM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
Villaboo
here you go: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-will-be-all-gone-as-csiro-swings-jobs-axe-scientists-say-20160203-gml7jy.html
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villabolo at 06:12 AM on 11 February 2016The gutting of CSIRO climate change research is a big mistake
There's no attribution for this article. It's authored by John Abraham.
Moderator Response:[BW] Thanks for the heads-up. I added John Abraham as the author.
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Hank11198 at 02:00 AM on 11 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
Thank you Tom. I assumed there was a good reason I didn't know about.
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No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
HK - A lovely example. As I stated on WUWT sime time back [archived link]:
It could be argued that it’s better to look at raw temperature data than data with these various adjustments for known biases. It could also be argued that it’s worth not cleaning the dust and oil off the lenses of your telescope when looking at the stars. I consider these statements roughly equivalent, and (IMO) would have to disagree.
Needless to say, this was not received well in deniersville.
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sailingfree at 00:58 AM on 11 February 2016A Response to the “Data or Dogma?” hearing
Great post!
A broader perspective: Why the troposphere?
To see if the Globe is warming, see the ocean heat content.
To see if the climate is changing, see the global surface temperatures.
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No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
According to the denier's logic, the left of these two images of Uranus is the correct one because it's based on raw data while the right is a fraud because the Keck telescope on Hawaii used adaptive optics to counter the turbulence in the Earth's atmosphere!
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CBDunkerson at 22:44 PM on 10 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
Denier 1: 'You are not accounting for urban heat island effects on the temperature data! It is all a fraud!'
Denier 2: 'You are adjusting the temperature data! It is all a fraud!'
What's really sad... all too often the 'Denier 1' and 'Denier 2' comments are coming from a single person.
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SirCharles at 15:16 PM on 10 February 2016No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
For the lay people => Understanding Adjustments to Temperature Data | Berkeley Earth
Histogram of all PHA changepoint adjustments for versions 3.1 and 3.2 of the PHA for minimum (left) and maximum (right) temperatures.
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sjw40364 at 10:40 AM on 10 February 2016Other planets are warming
Response to anyone ignoring those newly discovered sources pumping energy into the atmosphere:
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/scientists-discover-surprise-in-101025
Of course no studies have been made - it's newly discovered and despite claims of knowing of its existence for years - falsified every text book they had on the subject.
"UCLA atmospheric scientists have discovered a previously unknown basic mode of energy transfer from the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere. The research, federally funded by the National Science Foundation, could improve the safety and reliability of spacecraft that operate in the upper atmosphere.
"It's like something else is heating the atmosphere besides the sun."
You all talk of irradiance as if it is the sole factor. You try to justify outer panets wind speeds because there is no heat from the sun - then try to justify Venus's and earth's wind speeds because of heat from the sun. Make up your minds please. You talk about internal heat sources of planets while at the same time ignoring that the Heat from Saturn's north pole was 10 times more than predicted.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cassini/media/cassini-20080103_prt.htm
The source of the heat is not a mystery - it's just ignored in conversations is all.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cassini/whycassini/cassini20110420.html
Just as those connections exist between the planet and moon - they exist between the sun and the planets. Right now we can only detect earth's solar connection.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2007/11dec_themis/
"NASA's fleet of THEMIS spacecraft, launched less than 8 months ago, has made three important discoveries about spectacular eruptions of Northern Lights called "substorms" and the source of their power. The discoveries include giant magnetic ropes that connect Earth's upper atmosphere to the Sun and explosions in the outskirts of Earth's magnetic field....
..."The satellites have found evidence for magnetic ropes connecting Earth's upper atmosphere directly to the Sun," says Dave Sibeck, project scientist for the mission at the Goddard Space Flight Center. "We believe that solar wind particles flow in along these ropes, providing energy for geomagnetic storms and auroras....
..."THEMIS encountered its first magnetic rope on May 20, 2007," says Sibeck. "It was very large, about as wide as Earth, and located approximately 40,000 miles above Earth's surface in a region called the magnetopause." The magnetopause is where the solar wind and Earth's magnetic field meet and push against one another like sumo wrestlers locked in combat. There, the rope formed and unraveled in just a few minutes, providing a brief but significant conduit for solar wind energy. Other ropes quickly followed: "They seem to occur all the time," says Sibeck."
Just as they will be ignored in this conversation.
Moderator Response:[PS] This is getting repetitive and you have failed to answer points made about your previous post. If you expect anyone to take this seriously then please present evidence of other heating sources that represent even a 1/10th of extra heating provided by increased GHG (ie 4W/m2). Extra milliWatts can be safely ignored.
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