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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 26451 to 26500:

Nick Palmer at 01:42 AM on 23 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

Eclectic@4 wrote "Deniers or denialists . . . it's all the same. And what better term could be used? "

A lot of then get very sweaty about being called those terms, in particular those who describe themelves as sceptics, who usually turn out to be some version of a "lukewarmer".
Recently, I have been getting much less kickback by using the term "delusionists" which I find ironic because, to me, being accused of being delusional would be much worse than being called "denier".

Tom Curtis at 01:37 AM on 23 December 2015

How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean

matt sykes @66 refers to Fig 2 of the OP for the slope relationship. However, he is confused. First, a globally averaged forcing of 3.7 W/m^2 at the skin layer of the atmosphere results in a 5.4 W/m^2 increase in net downward longwave radiation at the surface. Ergo he has underestimated the forcing change at the surface. Second, that figure is for the forcing only. It does not include feedbacks which further increase the OLR.

Finally, the figure shown is for data collected over less than a month. It follows that, due to the large thermal inertia, the surface does not reach equilibrium in that data. Therefore the slope is not a slope of the equilibrium responce, or even the Transient Climate Response to the change in forcing.

One Planet Only Forever at 01:34 AM on 23 December 2015

2015 SkS Weekly Digest #51

Kiwiiano,

The most despicable people are the ones that actually better understand something but hope to get away with deliberately abusing the point you refer to. The popularity of such people can easily intimidate thoughtful and considerate people who would want to point out the unacceptability of what they are trying to get away with.

When those despicable people get control of governments or corporations or organizations it can be very difficult to limt the damage they do.

Despicable people have gotten away with inflicting all kinds of unjustified punitive actions on thoughtful considerate people. Popular support for those who fight as dirty as they can get away with to prolong or expand their success in their understood to be unacceptable pursuits is a clear sign that current socioeconomic systems are a failed experiment that is getting dangerously out of control, like a nuclear reactor with a cooling system failure, or attempts to geoengineer a 'correction' of the damage being done by humans benefiting from burning fossil fuels.

Johnb at 01:33 AM on 23 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

I suspect side-tracking is on display. It's not obligatory to fall for it.

Tom Curtis at 01:24 AM on 23 December 2015

It's the sun

matt sykes @1160, the actual quote from the advanced version of the OP is:

"Unfortunately observational low-level cloud cover data is somewhat lacking and even yields contradictory results. Norris et al. (2007) found
"Global mean time series of surface- and satellite-observed low-level and total cloud cover exhibit very large discrepancies, however, implying that artifacts exist in one or both data sets....The surface-observed low-level cloud cover time series averaged over the global ocean appears suspicious because it reports a very large 5%-sky-cover increase between 1952 and 1997. Unless low-level cloud albedo substantially decreased during this time period, the reduced solar absorption caused by the reported enhancement of cloud cover would have resulted in cooling of the climate system that is inconsistent with the observed temperature record."
So the jury is still out regarding whether or not there's a long-term trend in low-level cloud cover."
(My emphasis)

Your version is a rather blatant misrepresentation of the text.

Despite that, I will bite. Dana elsewhere says:

"In reality, the CERN experiment only tests the bolded step in this list of requirements for cosmic rays to be causing global warming:
1) Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
2) The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
3) Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:
Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN)
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation
4) Cloud cover on Earth must be declining"
(My emphasis)

The alternative to their growing "...sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN)" is that they simply evaporate away to quickly due to their small volume and large surface area. So, here is a cloud chamber in action:

So, do the rapidly forming tracks then gradual dissipation indicate that the liquid droplets are growing through condensation, or just fading away? How does just seeing this clould chamber in action make it obvious that they are growing through condensation rather than dissipating?

And that, of course, is in a supersaturated solution - not normal atmospheric conditions. So, yes, I think the jury is still out on whether or not cosmic rays can lead to the formation of clouds - and looking at cloud chambers does not resolve the issue. Certainly, at least, if you actually look rather than bringing your prejudice to the table.

Tom Curtis at 01:02 AM on 23 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

ryland @8, given that you reject the IPCC position on attribution, and ask PeterH about why he accepts it, it is only fair that you are forthcoming on the attribution level you accept (with uncertainties) and why. Certainly PeterH should feel no compulsion to respond to your questions while you continue to conceal your actual opinions.

KR at 00:44 AM on 23 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

ryland - I suggest you look at both the Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming post and the huge amount of work summarized in IPCC AR5 Ch. 10, Detection and Attribution of Climate Change. Multiple approaches, including examining all known forcings (natural forcings alone would have induced a slight cooling over the last century, but note we are seeing warming), statistical correlation of forcings with changes over time (from the last 40-120 years, such as Foster and Rahmstorf 2011, Lean and Rind 2008), and, yes, model comparisions with natural and natural plus anthropogenic factors, which show the same results. And including all estimates of uncertainty on those factors, the possibility of natural causes adding up to 50% of recent warming is less than 5%. The best estimate is indeed a human attribution of 110% - that without human influences we would have seen a temperature drop over the last century.

Your comment is a combination of decrying and attempting to dismiss large chunks of the evidence, dismissal of well known and quite solid early work (Arrhenius), implying the attribution comes from a single researcher (Serengheti strategy, a claim not even remotely true), and in essence multiple arguments from incredulity - logical fallacies.

I await a reference or two to actual attribution studies that support your incredulous claims - but I'm not going to hold my breath.

ryland at 23:57 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

PeterH Can you advise how the 100% of global warming is attributable to humans has been arrived at? Are you saying that computer programs devised by humans, who not only freely admit to not knowing the precise details of how the various factors affecting the climate interact but also that there are almost certainly unknown contributing factors, are reliable prognosticators of global warming? And please don't bring Arrhenius 1896 into your argument a syou are dealing with a scientist with a lot of experience in vetting all sorts of claims. And just to finish I do know climate change is occurring and that humans are responsible at least in part but I don't accept Gavin Schmidt's 110%. Also I accept that a 2C increase means the end of the world as we know it for as Roy Spencer has recently pointed out we are already at 1.5C increase

PeterH at 22:29 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

The difficulty we all face is that the clear evidence of climate research points to an increasingly urgent imperative for bold economic policy change. At that point the message becomes a threat to a proportion of the population, either because their vested interests are threatened or because of a deep-seated distrust of 'big government'. Sadly the ancient expression "Don't shoot the messenger" seems to be ignored.

As noted above, one of the disappointing aspects of the wall of denier PR is that some aspects of the denier agenda have crept into climate science, such as the alleged 'pause', being sucked into the trap of trying to defend the long-term trend shown in the models when faced with a short-term blip; a blip that has plenty of historical precedence.

shoyemore at 20:27 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

ryland #5,

You post is just another instance of "Climateball", the game deniers play where they make up all the rules to suit themselves e.g. deniers may not be insulted, but may fling insults themselves whereever they please.

It's frankly boring and irrelevant. There an old political adage: if you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen. Deniers dragged the debate from the realm of science into the realm of rhetoric and cheap point-scoring. If you think you are getting the worst of it, then boo hoo.

Moderator Response:

[DB] Please do not respond further to those portions of Ryland's comments moderated out.

ryland at 19:44 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

@3 The quotation I should have used is "as ye sow so shall ye reap". Your comments directed to me on SkS have always been, unlike many at this site, both temperate and courteous hence my comment. With regard to your remark "Being courteous isn't enough. If you work in climate and communicate your results, you will be attacked." perhaps you are being "tarred with the same brush" as other, less pleasant, climate scientists and their acolytes However, these attacks are not by other scientists who work in climate as is the case with Christy, Curry and Spencer. All of these scientists and others such as Willie Soon, work in climate and are regularly attacked by their peers as well as by those whose knowledge of science is less extensive.

Moderator Response:

[DB] Ideology and inflammatory snipped. Please review the Comments Policy and better construct your comments to conform to it. Thanks!

Eclectic at 19:27 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

ryland @2 . . . Ryland, really now : let's just be frank about statements such as, "deniers should be executed" ~ frankly, such comments are exceedingly rare compared with the torrent of violent threats and abuse issuing from the ranks of the AGW-deniers [and over many years, too].

Of course, neither party is spotlessly pure in its politeness to the other party ~ but the difference between them is many orders of magnitude. A difference so huge, that it represents a real difference of quality, over and above quantity.

The hard core of deniers being so resentful against the reality of it all, and so angry contra mundum . . . that they display themselves as vitriolic and deranged. Is that comment just some hyperbole by me? Not at all : it is calling a spade a spade.

Sure, for those angry denouncers of science/ climate science, there are many of them who are (at least in part) angered by other events and trends in their own individual lives : and so they vent their frustration by making continual cries of outrage against science and against individual scientists or commentators.

On top of that, there seems to be a "tribal" outrage against events and trends in their collective lives ~ and they seek a scapegoat for that. Perhaps I am an optimist, but I can see a sort of silver lining to that stormcloud : i.e. while they are attacking climate scientists/science, they are (to a degree) easing up on their attacks against women/ Jews/ racial groups/ other targets. Well, perhaps easing a bit [though I can't document it] !!

Deniers or denialists . . . it's all the same. And what better term could be used? Maybe, 25 years ago, it might have been more appropriate to call the (less deranged) of them "skeptics" or "contrarians" . . . but that time is long past. The continous global warming since then, and the additional scientific understanding of many aspects of AGW, has resulted in a situation where opponents of the concept of AGW do not have a leg to stand on [apart from paranoid conspiracy theories]. Even devil's advocates must, in their heart of hearts, acknowledge that . . . don't you reckon, eh Ryland?

Moderator Response:

[DB] Please do not respond further to that portion of Ryland's comment that was moderated out.

ConcernedCitizen at 18:51 PM on 22 December 2015

It's the sun

Anyone who thinks the 'jury is still out' on whether cosmic rays can cause clouds hasnt seen a cloud chamber in aciton.

ConcernedCitizen at 18:44 PM on 22 December 2015

How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean

Since the slope of the relationship is 0.002ºK (W/m2)-1 how does a 3 w/m^2 forcing, leading to a skin change of 0.006C acccount for a 0.7 C rise in SST?

Kevin C at 17:56 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

And yet I no longer read the comments on most sites which mention me, I no longer google myself or my work. My social media activities are minimal and totally locked down. Being courteous isn't enough. If you work in climate and communicate your results, you will be attacked.

ryland at 16:59 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU

If climate scientists are or feel they are, being reviled and misrepresentred, perhaps it is because of the arrogant and pompous behaviour of a significant number of climate scientists and their acolytes. If you call people who disagree with you "deniers" with all the unpleasant connotations that word brings, why shouldn't you be pilloried in return? Statements such as that by Professor Richard Parncutt from the University of Graz that "deniers should be executed" ( a statement for which he subsequently apologised) is hardly likely to endear the climate change proponents to those that are less convinced. Al Gore suggested deniers be punished. David Suzuki said deniers shoud be thrown into jail. James Hansen said deniers should be brought to trial for high crimes against humanity. Stephan Lewandowsky equates "deniers" with conspiracy theory nuts. Pro AGW blogs regularly make derogatory comments against Judith Curry and Richard Lindzen and John Christy and Roy Spencder and Bjorn Lomborg. The climate scientists and acolytes are reaping what they sow. I exclude Kevin Cowtan from any of this as he is a courteous and thoughtful man

Moderator Response:

[DB] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

Inflammatory and ideology snipped.

sidd at 15:59 PM on 22 December 2015

The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU
AGU streaming was very poor this year compared to last. I tried several combinations of browser(5) and OS(3) and few "worked." Since I have better things to do, I shall wait for more accessible versions. On another note, what is the matter with realclimate ? Adware abounds. Apparently there is no one minding the store. Ought we begin a kickstarter campaign to fund a webmaster position ?

psagar at 15:40 PM on 22 December 2015

Climate sensitivity is low

Tom Curtis @368, thanks for the illustration. Sorry for responding late but earlier I could not completely follow your comment. I am back again to this discussion as the semester is over.

I follow and agree until your statement "Nor can it be greater than the ECS, for (with a positive forcing) if it were ΔF - α ΔTCR would be negative." I do not understand what you are saying with this statement. I also do not understand the statements that follow. How does it then establish that TCR < ECS? Could you please rephrase these explanations a bit so that I can understand.

Kiwiiano at 12:53 PM on 22 December 2015

2015 SkS Weekly Digest #51

To mangle a quote relating to getting the general population to acknowledge climate change: "It is very difficult to get a man to understand something if his lifestyle depends on him not understanding it."

jimspy at 06:14 AM on 22 December 2015

New Peter Sinclair video: What Exxon Knew

I honestly believe that this story, and in fact this very video, should put the last nail in the coffin of the "worldwide hoax by scientists groveling for government grants conspiracy" BS. I'm trying it out on a few denier FBFs, rubbing their noses in it. I have found that the very most basic, almost insurmountable notion clung to tenaciously by deniers is that this is a liberal hoax perpetrated by secretly-liberal governments worldwide, and that they hold scientists on the short leash of "grants" in order to further their nefarious goal of "transferring wealth to third-world countries", thus completing the global Communist takeover...or whatever the hell they're thinking. But as I asked on my FB page, "Who were Exxon/Mobil's scientists trying to please?"

I'll keep you posted on the reactions.

Rob Honeycutt at 05:24 AM on 22 December 2015

Antarctica is gaining ice

Richard... There's also a really good animated graph from Carbon Tracker that shows the NH/SH trends in a really cool way. LINK

Tom Curtis at 02:24 AM on 22 December 2015

Antarctica is gaining ice

Richard Lawson @446, MA Rodger is correct that the lag time between NH and SH is quite small, but I believe he understates it. To properly appreciate it, here are the annual average CO2 concentrations for four stations posted by Ferdinand Engelbeen in a discussion at Climate Etc:

Drawing a horizontal line at any level shows the South Pole Concentration to lag the Mauna Loa concentration by approximately 1.5 years. The SH lag to the NH will be about the same, slightly less for the lag to the global average. The model for the graph to which MA Rodger links uses a lag of 22 months for SH to NH. As MA Rodger notes, that is too small a lag to result in appreciable forcing differences, and makes almost no contribution to the different temperature histories.

The most probable explanation of the different temperature histories is geographical. Specifically while the Arctic is sea level sea ice surrounded by land, the Antarctic is a very high altitude plateau of land ice surrounded by ocean. These differences have the effect that:

1) The Antarctic climate is significantly isolated from the global climate by circumpolar winds and currents, actin as an insulating barrier against heat transfer to the Antarctic;

2) The high altitude of the Antarctic plateau keeps local weather conditions below freezing throughout the summer, limiting albedo changes in summer;

3) The ocean surrounding the Antarctic tends to melt any snowfall, limiting any albedo changes in winter (a factor partly offset by changes in the extent of sea ice).

In contrast, in the Arctic, Atlantic and to a lesser extent Pacific waters are actively channelled into the Arctic, thereby connecting Arctic temperature responses to those in the NH tropics and mid-latitudes. Arctic sea ice melts in summer to very high latitudes, and gains melt ponds and polynaya over its full extent. The sub arctic snow in winter primarilly falls on land where it can remain in situ and have a major contribution to albedo effects. The net effect is a much stronger albedo feedback in the NH than in the SH, enhance because the large land mass in the NH results in larger temperature fluctuations in any event.

MA Rodger at 01:43 AM on 22 December 2015

Antarctica is gaining ice

Richard Lawson @446.

There is a lag but it measures months and does little more than ensure the annual cycle is missing over Antarctica. There is a graph of a model & there are fancy videos of it if you look. The fanciest is this NOAA graphic but that is a bit too fancy so it is less good at showing the lag that it should be.

One Planet Only Forever at 00:59 AM on 22 December 2015

2015 SkS Weekly Digest #51

Several important words are missing from the above Quote from Susan Cain. The full intended quote is below with the second paragraph being corrected to the full wording (very imprtant words to include):

“Another explanation is group identity. Many Asian cultures are team-oriented, but not in the way that Westerners think of teams. Individuals in Asia see themselves as part of a greater whole - whether family, corporation, or community - and place tremendous value on harmony within their group. They often subordinate their own desires to the group's interests, accepting their place in its hierarchy.

Western culture, by contrast, is organized around the individual. We see ourselves as self-contained units; our destiny is to express ourselves, to follow our bliss, to be free of undue restraint, to achieve the one thing that we, and we alone, were brought into this world to do. We may be gregarious but we don't submit to group will, or at least we don't like to think we do. ...”

One Planet Only Forever at 00:48 AM on 22 December 2015

2015 SkS Weekly Digest #51

Articles like “Why Climate Contrarians are Wrong” are interesting and important but they only address part of the story. And the part not addressed is the more important matter regarding the development of 'public better understanding of what is actually going on'.

The assessment of where the understanding of the scientific community has developed to regarding the impacts of creating excess CO2 by burning of fossil fuels is important. However, it is only part of the more important issue of better understanding the acceptance of (resistance to) that developing better understanding of what is going on globally (by all of humanity). And the CO2 issue is only one of many cases of converging lines of evidence clearly indicating that people with unacceptable attitudes (greedy and intolerant people) have been able to continue to succeed in spite of the developing better understanding of their unacceptable pursuits.

The continued success of misleading messages designed to delay the acceptance of climate science in the general population proves that understanding how to deliver a stronger presentation of the science cannot be separated from understanding why there would be reluctance to accept the developing better understanding of what is actually going on. A clearer or stronger presentation of the science by itself will not overcome the motivations for people to not want to accept the developing better understanding. The inappropriate motivations of 'the masses' also need to be effectively pointed out.

A preference for personal benefit leads many people to resist better understanding something that is actually possible for them to understand. Such people willingly believe unsubstantiated messages created by undeserving wealthy and powerful people who acquired wealth and power by not caring about the sustainability of what they do or the potential negative impacts of their pursuits on others. Such people can become so powerful in a region or an organization/corporation that the region or organization/corporation becomes a powerful mechanism for prolonging or expanding the unacceptable pursuits of benefit by such people.

The 1987 UN Report “Our Common Future” includes a very good summation of what was, and continues to be, going on:

“25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.”

Climate science and the developing better understanding of the unacceptability of burning fossil fuels and may other 'popular and profitable human pursuits' that contribute to the unsustainable creation of problems other people will have to deal with and suffer the consequences of, has made it very apparent that 'individualism, popularity and profitability' can be impediments to the advancement of humanity.

I am currently re-reading Susan Cain's “Quiet - The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking”. In chapter 8 she presents a comparison of developing understanding of the differences between historically more introverted Asian cultures and historically more extroverted “Western” cultures. She mentions the significance of higher reverence in Asian cultures for people who actually better understand something (education and learning). But her second explanation deserves quoting rather than paraphrasing:
“Another explanation is group identity. Many Asian cultures are team-oriented, but not in the way that Westerners think of teams. Individuals in Asia see themselves as part of a greater whole - whether family, corporation, or community - and place tremendous value on harmony within their group. They often subordinate their own desires to the group's interests, accepting their place in its hierarchy.

Western culture, by contrast, is organized around the individual. We see ourselves as self-contained units; our destiny is to express ourselves, that we,m and we alone, were brought into this world to do. We may be gregarious but we don't submit to group will, or at least we don't like to think we do. ...”

She also explains that these generalizations do not apply to entire population groups, but explain the different cultural influences that can affect how a person will develop their fundamental tendencies regarding introversion and extroversion. It is clear that “Western” thinking has significantly penetrated into Asian cultures. And it is also clear that even the “Asian” way of thinking limited to a single nation can develop very damaging consequences.

Relating that to the struggle to get acceptance of 'the developing better understanding of climate science and the changes required to develop a lasting better future for a robust diversity of humanity as a sustainable part of a robust diversity of life on this amazing planet', it is easy to understand how the “Asian” attitude must be extended to all life (not just be restricted to humanity, and definitely not just be restricted to a portion of humanity) for humanity to advance, and how the “Western” attitude can be a powerful temptation and a strong impediment to the advancement of humanity.

The popularity of perceptions of personal prosperity developed by getting away with understood to be unacceptable and unjustified actions encourages many people to develop the attitude that personal pursuits in a person's lifetime should take precedence over better understanding how to participate in developing a better future for all. Many people become inclined to think that if better understanding means less potential for personal benefit, or means having to give up undeserved developed perceptions of prosperity, then 'that' better understanding needs to be fought against. That attitude can build very powerful groups of like-minded individuals who will seek out 'leaders and presenters of information' that suit 'their interests'.

The “Winners take all” competition of individuals and groups attitude prevalent in Western societies and economics needs to be seen as “Cheaters have a competitive advantage by being willing to do things they can understand are unacceptable for as long as they can get away with and they are often mistakenly perceived to be winners until the damaging unacceptability of their attitudes and actions becomes too big to ignore and excuse” or “Winners may have ruined things for others”.
The future of humanity clearly needs people who recognize the importance of humanity advancing to be a diversity of ways of living that are sustainable parts of the robust diversity of life on this, or any other, amazing planet. The way that the current socioeconomic competitive games create temptations for people to choose to believe otherwise and pursue personal preferences any way they can get away with is clearly a significant impediment to the advancement humanity. Lots of things need to change. As stated by the title of Naomi Klein's recent book “This Changes Everything”.

Hopefully, global humanity is headed towards quicker acceptance of any and all developing better understanding that is contrary to the developed interests of undeserving wealthy and powerful people, because that change is essential to humanity developing a better future (without that change there may be no future for humanity - the potential worst case result).

Richard Lawson at 00:18 AM on 22 December 2015

Antarctica is gaining ice

My understanding is that the Arctic air temperatures are warming faster than the Antarctic. We know that most of the anthropogenic CO2 is released in the northern hemisphere, according to this NASA model https://www.nasa.gov/press/goddard/2014/november/nasa-computer-model-provides-a-new-portrait-of-carbon-dioxide/#.Vnf2ChWLTIU
CO2 lasts in the air for hundreds of years, but mixing of air between NH and SH is rather slow. Is there an appreciable lag between CO2 levels in the NH and those in the SH, and if so is it enough to contribute to the difference in warming between the Arctic and Antarctic?

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