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Tom Curtis at 15:51 PM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
villabolo @17, permaculture is less labour intensive than subsistence farming, but is far more labour intensive than current commercial farming practises. That means a population of permaculture farmers can support far fewer information and cultural specialists (like librarians, professors, artists) or indeed, industrial workers. Granted the hours required per week in an established permaculture farm are sufficiently low that the permaculture farmers can if they desire be part time farmers and part time cottage industrialists (or researchers, or musicians, or what have you), but that doesn't solve the basic person hours equation, and only means the researchers, musicians etc in the society are less skilled at research, music etc. That might work for music, where practising has its own joy. It doesn't work for research. Nor does it work for medicine, or for teaching, and so on. The net effect, if your model were implemented world wide, would be an overall loss of technology and knowledge. Health standards would also decline after an initial boost from the elimination of excessive consumption and lack of excercise.
If, as is far more likely, it was not applied world wide, the nations that did not indulge in the experiment would soon find they had an overwhelming military advantage over those that did, and would take advantage of that fact to end the experiment in their favour. Armed forces are, of course, another of those specialized roles that are refined in ability by the fact that other people grow the soldiers food (and make their guns, etc).
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villabolo at 13:45 PM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
Scaddenp @#16
It would not be subsistent farming. I see that as a recurring theme in your responses. Permaculture is less labor intensive than subsistence farming. It is also more efficient and sustainable than mechanized agriculture and lacks the side effects of soil erosion, over fertilization, etc.
Most of what you mentioned can be done by villages that specialize in whatever business endeavor you care to mention. Each village will have about 200 adults of working age. Four adjacent villages bordering each other will have about 800.
That is enough to man light manufacturing industries, hospitals, theaters, etc. As for energy it would be solar, wind and natural gas as a backup. The internet, wifi can encompass village areas. Security would be a Swiss style army.
Also, four adjacent villages could support a small school of about 250 students.
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scaddenp at 12:32 PM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
No, not heard of Arcosanti, but I still dont see how numbers stack. Manufacturing (for finite systems), energy, health care, internet, entertainment, security forces, all requiring payment.
And this is assuming that we want to exist as subsistance farmers - and your option is open only to tiny portion of world's people where there is enough land/per person. In my opinion, a sustainable option is one that has to work for everyone, not just those who accident of birth gives them geographical advantage.
Now if you think you can subsist utterly independently (really and truly) and find others likewise interested, then go for it. As solution for worlds problems - nope, not without a massive downsize in population and expectation. Me? I have no ambition to farming - I am from line a farmers that started with my father and ended with me - and have no wish for a life where I cannot use the talents I do possess.
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bozzza at 12:13 PM on 21 October 2015Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago
"..eh?"
That was gold!
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:54 AM on 21 October 2015New UN climate deal text: what’s in, what’s out
I hope the result is meaningful change of the motivations driving the development of things, and acknowledgement of what has been unacceptable about development so far.
I think the following pair of paragraphs from the 1987 UN Report "Our Common Future" would make a good preface to the Paris Document.
"25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management."Political and Economic change can be a gradual process, but what has happened since the global awareness of what needed to change was so plainly stated almost 30 years ago has been inexcusable.
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villabolo at 11:22 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
scaddenp@14
I find the irony of lifestyle blocks where people feel very eco-friendly, raising their own food, generating their own electricity - and then using maybe 4x times a much energy as me because they then commute to work, school, activities, in their SUV (because, you know, they need one because they are "farmers")...
In my lifestyle you wouldn't need to drive 4 times as much for most jobs. First, many people won't even need a job if:
All their food is growing within a minute’s walk of their front door.
Their house is paid off and ready to be transferred free to their children and successive generations.
Also, their village or adjacent villages could run a business cooperatively putting their jobs withing a few minutes walk of their residency.
Then there are plugin hybrid vehicles including SUVs; hybrid buses running between villages; etc.
PS: Have you heard of Arcosanti?
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scaddenp at 10:39 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
"doesn't sound like the good life to me" well that is entirely a subjective judgement and fortunately you are probably able to live that way if you chose. Just dont confuse it with a sustainable, low-energy life style.
I find the irony of lifestyle blocks where people feel very eco-friendly, raising their own food, generating their own electricity - and then using maybe 4x times a much energy as me because they then commute to work, school, activities, in their SUV (because, you know, they need one because they are "farmers"), whereas my city lifestyle puts most of that in walking/cycling distance. Many, if not most, lifestyle blocks are basically turning valuable arable land into over-sized accommodation and pet food. I have crunched some of the numbers deep within this analysis
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villabolo at 10:31 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
scaddenp @11.
The land I live in is not considered arable, yet I was able to grow a garden with no problem. There are also fruit trees growing from cracks in the sidewalk and backyards in my apartment complex. I think that the definition of arable pertains to land that can be farmed with mechanized agriculture.
Don't underestimate permaculture.
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villabolo at 10:04 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
scaddenp @#9
Yes, the population density puts it between suburban and rural densities. Commutes will be, if I did my math right, between 3 and 4 times as far.
However, bunching ourselves up, like sardines, until every mega apartment skyscraper has its own doctor and nurse and a violin teacher two buildings down doesn't sound like the good life to me.
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Stardustoz at 10:01 AM on 21 October 2015New UN climate deal text: what’s in, what’s out
Please note that the link to the Skeptical Science survey is not working
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scaddenp at 10:01 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
if you use the table in the reference above, you get 0.48hect/per person (actually 1.2 acre) including Alaska. 4x what we have in NZ. China is 0.06ha and Netherlands 0.02ha. Dont see this catching on. I think it is less sustainable than current system from its energy cost.
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villabolo at 09:42 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
scaddenp @#7
Note also, that even in US, you have 1.6 acre/person if I have done the conversion from hectare to such an arcane unit correctly.
I also have trouble converting metrics to American. I believe the figures would be ~6 acres per person excluding Alaska. I would only take 1/3 of that for residencies and businesses.
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scaddenp at 09:37 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
That sounds like high energy transport use and I just love commuting (not). Compare that very high density cities, which can sustain good public transport because there are high densities, with land efficiently farmed or are you saying permaculture cannot scale? Good health care because you have very large no. of people within the golden hour, and thriving arts culture because artists can get together. Tough life being a violin teacher if you have less than 50,000 people within 15 minutes.
Sorry, but your vision isnt for me.
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villabolo at 09:14 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
Scaddenp @7
Society won't be limited to that one village but can be open ended with hundreds of thousands of people networking in the same way they do now.
You can have entire factories and retail establishments run by individual villages whose workers live in that village.
We currently have suburbs with people traveling to and fro. The same would apply to this type of civilization.
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scaddenp at 09:03 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
And what about those whose skills are more like arts (musicians especially), brain surgery, programming, etc. A fab factory does not scale down to something a village of 500 can staff so presumably we are live without electronics. What does your health care look like? Note also, that even in US, you have 1.6 acre/person if I have done the conversion from hectare to such an arcane unit correctly.
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villabolo at 08:15 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
@#4 Tom Curtis
The loose figures I cited are for the United States. I was envisioning permaculture which is not labor intensive and can, when the trees mature, be sustained with 1 hour worth of labor per person per day. We are already efficient with producing food with only a fraction of our population necessary and through permaculture we can still have the same efficiency with a substantial amount of time per capita necessary for the rest of our social infrastructure.
Please realize that permaculture/food forests are very different than conventional agriculture.
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villabolo at 08:14 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
@#2 scaddenp:
No, I was proposing it for the US which has a lower population density than the rest of the world.
Also I'm not proposing it in one fell swoop but graduated throughout a 70+ year period where those who are experts in permaculture can teach those who are not. That time period could allow for 10,000 experts to teach 3 times their numbers within a 7 year period to learn basic permaculture techniques and become fully self-reliant. Once the food forests are yielding those persons could in turn teach 3 others and so forth.
In the meantime conventional grain agriculture can be maintained by the professionals who are now doing it.
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Tom Curtis at 07:43 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
villabolo@1, given current estimates of total world arable land, there is currently 1.4 acres per capita of arable land. That means the world's population would need to reduce by 30% to even begin to impliment your utopia. Nor do I think it would be a utopia. As scaddenp points out, a significant reserve of people not employed in agriculture is required to sustain arts, sciences and an industrial base. Without those, your utopian community would quickly regress to a patchwork technology system (some high technology could be maintained locally) that was well below western 20th century standards. The lack of medical facilities (again, population surplus to direct agricultural production) would be partly compensated for by the lack of trade and low population densities significantly reducing the spread of disease, but life would still be "nasty, brutish and short".
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Jonas at 07:16 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
See also:
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-09-10/ecomodernism-a-response-to-my-critics
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scaddenp at 07:14 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
Are you proposing massive depopulation of world? You might like to look at this table and see how feasible this is with current population. I guess everyone with very specialised skill-sets that depend on large population densities to make a living are now unskilled agricultural labour? No thanks.
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villabolo at 06:32 AM on 21 October 2015The Brave New World of Ecomodernism
My "utopia" would be the opposite of ecomodernism. I believe that humanity should live in villages of 300-500 people spread out throughout the land with extensive wild natural areas.
Each village in the United States would have 1,000 acres (4 square kilometers) which would be about a third of its land. This would come out to 2 acres per person.
Food would be grown with permaculture food forests and some mechanized agriculture which is optimum for growing grains.
The remaining land would have its ecology reconstructed to what it was before the Clovis overkill. North America used to have lions, mammoths, giant ground sloths, camels as well as bison. They can either be substituted with their modern equivalent or brought back through genetic engineering.
Decentralized, human scale communities, with participatory democracies and surrounded by the ancient wilderness we once had.
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Tom Dayton at 02:59 AM on 21 October 2015Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago
As usual, Dilbert makes the point concisely:
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michael sweet at 20:08 PM on 20 October 2015Arctic sea ice extent was lower in the past
Outinthe snow,
Where in Florida are you moving? All of ocean front Florida is pretty low. New houses are built on 2 meter pads with the ground floor being sacrificial. They are "safe" from 15 feet of water. Is yours a new home or an old one at ground level?
No-one will garantee that your home will be safe. You will have to read the data carefully. Virtually any ocean waterfront property in Florida is at risk from sea level rise. This Climate Central map app gives some idea of how high the sea will rise in a best case and buisiness as usual case.
Unfortunately, none of these cases tells us how fast the sea will rise. For the West Antarctic Ice sheet recent analysis have said it could melt in decades to centuries. That will not help you much. If it is decades your children will see your house submerged while if it is centuries they will be fine.
This Realclimate post gives expert opinion on sea level rise to 2100. it ranges from .5-2.0 meters. The Antarctic data came out after the experts were surveyed, they might increase their estimates now. Most of that rise is likely to happen after 2050, is that long enough for you?
I wonder how much flood insurance will go up the next time a city is inundated. After Sandy they were talking about insurance rates higher than mortgages. I think these rises are more likely going forward, what do you think?
Good luck. Post what you decide to do. If a lot of people decide not to buy in Florida it will start to affect nvestors. Perhaps the government will notice.
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PhilippeChantreau at 14:27 PM on 20 October 2015Other planets are warming
Flux ropes eh? That seems to be in the same category as the recently discussed profession of "IR astronomer." Please provide scientific references explaining specifically what are flux ropes.
The solar wind is nothing new. Suggesting that one can warm up the long term climate of a planet with a change in solar wind is like suggesting that one can heat up a tea kettle by throwing hot stones at it. Eventually you could, I guess, but the barrage of stones required would be quite interesting. We're not seeing that at all. Tom Curtis gave you the numbers, do you realize what they mean?
I will add that handwaving my climate baseline remark does not make it go away. If all solar planets are to be considered as having seasonal variations according to their orbit around the sun, as they should, then it is indispensable to have a long enough base of obervation to determine whether or not what is being observed is due to seasonal variation or not. In order for any observed variable to be determined to have a significant departure from normal, a long enough time serie must be acquired to define normal. You make no logical case at all against that idea, you don't even try and just hand wave. I'm sorry but that's not convincing.
If we are to assume that some planets do not have seasonal variations, we need to have some serious basis for that, grounded in physics. You have any reference defending that idea? I would also like to see some scientific reference explaining why it is reasonable to assume that we can detect a climate change on a planet whose climate is barely hypothesized. I would also like to see an equally serious reference as to why any weather event on a planet whose climate has not been oberved through a full orbit can be ascribed to a "warming climate."
Skeptics on Earth argue that the rash of 1 in 1000 years weather events we saw on a regular basis over the past few years are not due to a warming climate. And yet here we are, with another type of "skeptic," who asserts that other planets phenomena, whose frequency is completely unknown to us, must be due to a warming climate. Something is clearly wrong in the "skeptic" camp.
A multitude of weather phenomena have become observable on other planets only because we have recently acquired the means to observe them. There is absolutely no way of telling whether these phenomena happened regularly before or not. One going with logic should assume that the likelihood of a phenomenon only recently observed to have sarted happening just when we became able to observe it is extremely low. Why would that be? Because it comes in handy to defend a pet theory?
If you discover something just because you started looking, that thing was probably happening all along. Therefore its existence does not constitute a change. Do you realize you're even arguing against yourself?
I must agree with Tom Curtis on this one. You select snippets from news stories, fail to look into their true significance, and automatically assume that they support your theory, while said theory is itself ill defined and rather free of constraints from basic physics.
What is your theory anyway? That high energy particles warm up the planets, including Jupiter? Jupiter, whose magnetosphere is so large that its bow shock with the solar wind is 75 radii away? Really? No thermodynamics problem there?
I'll add that, before condescending onto others about thermodynamics, you should perhaps verify that the ideas you defend do comply with them. For example, take the amount of energy from a star that would be required to heat up a giant gas planet, orbting far from the star, in a way that can be noticed from another planet closer to the star. Then attempt to quantify what effect that amount of energy would have on the small rocky planet, 300 times less massive and much closer to the star. Would that effect be something subtle enough that a significant portion of the intelligent beings populating the rocky planet would deny its existence? Methinks this all doesn't add up...
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Digby Scorgie at 13:31 PM on 20 October 2015New UN climate deal text: what’s in, what’s out
Would it be correct to say that, if the Paris conference is successful, the production of fossil fuel will begin to decline and continue to do so for some decades?
And if the above decline does not occur, will this imply failure?
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topquark at 10:59 AM on 20 October 2015Propaganda trumps journalism in conservative media climate reporting
There were also recent reports of another supposed 'discovery' that supposedly overturned scientific orthodoxy:
Anyone know anything about this? It seems pretty dubious to me. There are many independently coded climate models, so any error common to all of them would have to come from basic physics, not a coding problem, and I really doubt that Evans has discovered an error with the underlying science.
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Tom Curtis at 10:52 AM on 20 October 2015Other planets are warming
sjw40364 @33:
1) The water discovered on Mars was discovered by an orbital platform that has been orbiting Mars since 2006. The observed phenomenon from which water flows have been observed were seen over that entire period. Consequently the situation is that water was found by the first observing platform that was capable of doing so. To infer from that that Mars global temperatures are increasing follows the same logic of an explorer who, on first discovering the Mississipi concluded it was evidence of an imminent Noachian flood.
2) On the outer planets, at least, higher windspeeds are associated with cooler temperatures. That is because heat introduces turbulence that decreases the velocity of the wind. On Earth, things differ because increased temperatures increase absolute humidity, and hence the energy supply for storms - but that mechanism is not available on Venus. Ergo, it is more likely that increased windspeed on Venus is associated with cooling temperatures than the reverse.
There is no data showing any possible connection between temperature change in the interesting phenomenon on Jupiter or Saturn. The connection you form is of the nature of a leap of faith. You desire that all planets be warming, so you infer from any change (or entirely new observation) that it is evidence of that warming with no effort to tie the two phenomenon together.
3) Finally, NASA has not come up with "a new source of energy". The effect of the solar wind on the magnetosphere has been known since at least 1965. The 2009 NASA article to which you refer merely discusses improved understanding on what modulates that energy transfer. It has no significant bearing on the (already known) existence of and scale of the energy transfer.
With regard to that scale, it is extensively discussed by Tenfjord and Ostgaard (2013). They show a total cumulative energy transfer to the ionsphere over the period 1997-2010 of 889,000 x 10^14 Joules (W(Ut)), representing approximately 60% of the total energy from the impacting solar wind (W(Usw)). Averaged over the Earth's surface and the time interval involved, that represents 0.00035 W/m^2. That in turn is an overestimate of the forcing as approximately only 10% of energy transfered to the thermosphere (let alone the ionosphere) makes it to the lower atmosphere, the rest being radiated to space.
Note, further that this energy is not new energy. The solar wind did not spring into existence yesterday. Consequently there is no basis from this data to conclude that changes in the solar wind are warming or cooling the Earth. There is every reason to conclude it is absolutely inconsequential to the climate.
Your reasoning is shown to consist of taking some unanalyzed (by you) data from the news and simply assume that it automatically applies in support of your theory (without analysis) and that it is very significant (again without analysis and in very stark contradiction to the facts). Frankly, I am no impressed.
Moderator Response:[PS] Good response but watch tone.
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sjw40364 at 09:02 AM on 20 October 2015Other planets are warming
Response to PhilippeChantreau.
So those who claim to follow science are going to contiinue to ignore that during the same time frame that the earth became warmer - the Winds of venus increased - over the entire timeframe that the mission proceeded. And could still be but we don't know - we haven't sent another probe back to check yet.
That Mars warmed up during this same time frame so that we can now oberve the effects of liquid water on its surface?
That Jupiter lost an entire band - and if we are not talking climate - not just on small scales but ones that have lasted just how many years?
Your 30 year scenario strawman is based upon then ignoring those flux ropes between the earth and the sun - knowing as we do that flux ropes transport superheated plasma from one end to the other. We will just ignore that fact too while we are at it I guess.
Every single atmosphereic scientist in the world was stunned by what they found, yet you discount this newly discovered source of energy as unimportat????? Falsified every textbook you had on the subject - so of course it is unimportant to you, you still use them.
You didn't even know that this energy source
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/scientists-discover-surprise-in-101025
And this one even existed when the word global warming was even invented.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2007/11dec_themis/
But you think you got it all figured out - whiloe you continue to ignore every actual observation in the entire solar system - and right in froont of your nose - you just couldn't see or detect it a few years ago. Mostly because as they admitted - they were not looking. So predictive power is out for sure.
Now NASA knew something was up, knew enough energy was being generated to disrupt satelites, probes, etc. Energy you seem to think just magically adds nothing to the system. In direct opposition to the laws of thermodynamics.
Your strawmen convince no one but yourself. Because of course you refuse to accept 99% of the data.
And even when told of two newlt discovered sources of energy never added to any clculation - you think it's ok to dismiss them. The reality they would skew your hand-picked data - so they must be ignored. The shame you do to science.
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed links.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
In particular: Provide a source for your "flux ropes". Watch your tone and no accusations of fraud.
If you want to have a rant about AGW, there are plenty of other sites which would welcome your input. If you actually do want discuss the science then please observe the following:
Read the sources people provide back to you and read them for understanding, not to dismiss.
Acknowledge where you agree and where you not with explanation and sources - preferrably to peer-reviewed literature.
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To any respondents, please likewise follow those guidelines before discussion goes west and I have to start deleting comments.
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gws at 08:19 AM on 20 October 2015Methane release from melting permafrost could trigger dangerous global warming
Riduna, I do not question the "potential" (possibility) for a large methane release. There certainly is enough carbon making a potentially large emission of methane with a short time frame (10s-100s of years) possible. The question is, how likely is that? Current knowledge, AFAIK, suggests not very. We have yet to see representative measurements that would suggest that current or upcoming warming is likely to lead to this scenario. Is there is evidence for large outgassing from continental shelves, or evidence of large outgassing from lakes? If so, it has not yet affected atmospheric levels.
So far, atmospheric methane is increasing again in midlatitudes, not high latitudes. You said it yourself, "The threat from Arctic CH4 emissions associated with permafrost decay may not be large or abrupt ...". I agree. I also agree that the potential is worrying, but it is one of those worst case, low probability, high impact scenarios. We do not want it to happen, but we should also not present it as something that is very likely to happen. Few people like to be scared by unlikely scenarios.
We do need to work toward minimizing that worst potential. The "fat tail" as it is sometimes called, is not unimportant. It can be useful for certain audiences to work the fat tail (e.g. in insurance calculations), but I think it is generally more useful in working with people to consider the more likely scenarios.
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Tom Curtis at 06:57 AM on 20 October 2015CO2 effect is saturated
1) when you say "as a model, [radiative forcing is] not fitting", the model from which radiative forcing is derived are Line By Line (LBL) or broadband radiative models. The Line By Line refers to the fact that they calculate atmospheric transmission and emission for each wave number (a measure of frequency) seperately, giving a very fine resolution of radiative transfer. Typically they also divide the amtosphere into about twenty layers or so, calculating in each direction (up or down) the radiation entering, the radiation absorbed and the radiation emitted based on the atmospheric composition at that layer. As of 1969, they produced results with this sort of accuracy:
One such model whose accuracy across a wide range of surface conditions, temperatures and latitudes was studied in 2008 showed the following scatter plot vs observations for 134,862 observations:
If you are not familiar with scatter plots, they are plots of the observed value (CERES OLR) with the model predicted value, with perfect accuracy of prediction meaning the observations sit on the black line shown. The accuracy shown here is absolutely astonishing. The determination of radiative forcing of CO2 was done using models like this, or the lower resolution versions that are essential parts of all climate models (Global Circulation Models). I can only presume that when you say the model is "... not fitting", you simply do not know what models are used for the theory.
2) You also say that "If CO2 makes up 20% of our greenhouse effect, light from stars at this wavelength should be diminished by 20%". That assumes that absorption is the same at all frequencies, which is false (as can be seen in the first graph). IR astronomers tune the frequency of the observatories to 10 to 13 micron (800 - 1000 cm-1)band where there is minimum absorption by any atmospheric component as seen in the first grap above, and this emission spectrum from the University of Colorado:
By doing so they avoid nearly all of the effect of CO2 and H2O on the incoming light. Despite this, they still need to place their observatories high in the atmosphere (either on mountains, in planes or supported by balloons) or in space to get clear images. So, your fundamental premise that absorption is equal across all IR bands is simply mistaken.
Curiously, Goddard's "IR astronomer" friend refers to the 9.5 micron band as being absorption freed (it is in fact the frequency of maximum absorption and emission by ozone) and describes the actual atmospheric window as being a zone of significant absorption and emission by H2O, showing he does not even grasp the fundamental facts of atmospheric absorption and emission.
3) "Steven Goddard" and his (apparently fictional) source always makes a fundamental misake in examining radiation models. He only examines the so-called back radiation. Because H2O and CO2 emissions overlap, and because H2O is very abundant in the low atmosphere, CO2 emissions make up only a very small percentage of the overall back radiation. That, however, is irrelevant. What controlls the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) is the balance of energy recieved and energy radiated to space. Therefore it is radiation to space from the atmosphere which is the dominant driver of surface temperatures, and hence upper atmosphere concentrations that matter. Because the concentration of H2O is controlled by temperature, and temperatures fall rapidly with altitude, CO2 completely dominates emission to space in frequencies of significant overlap with H2O. Consequently, it is emissions to space that must be examined to determine the relative importance of different atmospheric components.
As an aside, because H2O absorbs in more frequencies it still (along with clouds) accounts for 75% of the total greenhouse effect, with CO2 accounting for 20%. Importantly, H2O varies rapidly with surface temperature, while CO2 varies only slowly. As a result, increasing CO2 will result in a rapid rise in H2O, generating a positive feedback on the CO2 rise. In contrast, a rise in H2O will result in only a small response from CO2, resulting in temperatures and H2O concentrations soon returning to their initial values.
Finally, if you want to examine the basis of greenhouse effect in more detail, but explained very clearly, I recommend my post here. It and the following comments also contain more detail on the first two graphs above.
(Note to the moderator, I know that I am close to the point of dogpilling. If that is a problem, I ask that you retain my post as the only one todate directly addressing the issues raised by fred.steffen (rather than his sources). Thankyou)
Moderator Response:[PS] Tom, thank you for your considered and detailed response. I am sure that will be helpful. However, this is close to dogpiling so no more please.
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scaddenp at 06:34 AM on 20 October 2015CO2 effect is saturated
Fred - so you would happily breath air with 0.04% Hydrogen Cyanide? Trying to dismiss an effect because it is a small number with without doing the maths to see if what effect it really has is more like an argument from Personal Incredulity. Does it sound better if you say the CO2 makes up 60% of the radiatively active gases in the atmosphere?
Also, you suggest experiments to see the effect of CO2 - but this kind of thing has already been done. See the Advanced tab of Tom Dayton's link for the papes. The effect of CO2 on incoming radiation has been measured from the surface and also the effect on outgoing from satellite. Both measurements agree with theoretical model to a very high degree of precision. A direct measurement has also been achieved. See here.
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Phil at 04:27 AM on 20 October 2015CO2 effect is saturated
The article on Tony Heller's (AKA Steven Goddard) states:
Starting at 13 we get CO2 absorption but that wavelength corresponds to temperatures below even that of the south pole.
So whoever he is, he doesn't seem to understand the earths emission spectrum (as a pseudo-black body) but appears to think the earth should emit at a single frequency for each "parcel" of the surface that is at a particular temperature. -
Tom Dayton at 03:31 AM on 20 October 2015CO2 effect is saturated
fred.steffen: I don't know what you mean by radiative forcing not fitting as a model. Nor do I know what other model you claim is used by most climate models, so please explain.
A response to that article you linked does a good job debunking that article, including the nonexistence of the supposed IR astronomer. However, I'd steer clear of its link to WUWT. Instead click the link on the Pierrehumbert article. For a more accessible explanation, see the Skeptical Science post "How Do We Know More CO2 Is Causing Warming?"--first watch the video at the bottom, then read the Basic tabbed pane, then the Intermediate tabbed pane, then the Advanced one.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:30 AM on 20 October 2015CO2 effect is saturated
fred.steffen... I did a quick google on the guy who apparently wrote the article for Goddard's blog. He says his name is Mike Sanicola, and he states that he is a "professional IR astronomer." In my google search I came up with this person who also checked into Sanicola's credentials. He says:
"Finally, I'm an astronomer and been around quite a while, and I've never heard of Mike Sanicola so I did a little checking. He is not in the American Astronomical Association directory (very unusual for a professional U.S. astronomer), nor is he one of the 10,727 astronomers worldwide listed in the International Astronomical Union (IAU) directory of professional astronomers. The link associated with his name in Goddard's post takes you to the GE (yes, that's General Electric) home page, where there is absolutely no mention of a Mike Sanicola. There are *no* papers in the Astrophysics Data System by anyone named "Sanicola", and this source indexes all papers that appear in the significant astronomy journals and conference proceedings. A Google search finds no reference to a Mike Sanicola, astronomer, other than to the same Steve Goddard article that Ajax quotes. I don't think Mike Sanicola exists, or if he does, he is not a professional astronomer."
So, I don't know who this guy actually is but he's clearly not the expert he claims to be.
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:22 AM on 20 October 2015CO2 effect is saturated
Quick FYI... Stevengoddard (not his real name) is probably one of the worst sources of information on climate change available on the internet.
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fred.steffen at 02:29 AM on 20 October 2015CO2 effect is saturated
Since CO2 is only present in our atmosphere at 0.04%, I've always thought it strange that it could have such a large impact. I've looked into "Radiative Forcing" and found out that as a model, it's not fitting, so there's another model that's more accurate that's being used instead for most climate models.
At the center of it all tho, as this article describes, is the effective "greenhouse" effect of CO2. If CO2 makes up 20% of our greenhouse effect, light from stars at this wavelength should be diminished by 20%.
According to this article, it isn't even a concern in IR astronomy.
(I apologize for the tone of this article, I don't think it should be as inflamatory as it is, yet the points he makes seem valid to me)
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/ir-expert-speaks-out-after-40-years-of-silence-its-the-water-vapor-stupid-and-not-the-co2/
If IR at CO2's wavelengths aren't affecting light coming from stars (almost undetectable amount) then IR at CO2 wavelenghts is free to radiate to space even from the surface. That should be easily measurable using a light source at that frequency pointed out to hit a sattelite, or even one of the mirrors we have on the moon.
If the article I listed or the premise I've asserted is false, please let me know.
Thank you...
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outinthesnow at 02:22 AM on 20 October 2015Arctic sea ice extent was lower in the past
I have been looking for reliable information on this specific issue. For one it's kinda important, and another reason is I am buying a home in florida on the water and dont want it "underwater" in my kids lifetime.
My worry about the northern ice cap is that if it gets too small it will "detach from underlying land masses" and essentially be a huge iceberg banging around up there. If you have ever lived on (or near) a lake that freezes from shore to shore you think every spring "wow that is really thick this year its never gonna melt", then a little lake level rise from runoff "floats the solid ice", cracks form, huge ridges between two sheets pushed by wind rise up, and poof just like last year its gone and you are out fishing.
I would like to relate this to a personal observation that happens when I have a party (lame I know but stick with me). If I buy soda the day before and put it all in the fridge, and for the party take it out and serve chilled two liter bottles I dont run out of ice from my fridge's icemaker. If I need to run to get more soda from the store I grab some bags of ice, because the warmer soda will need more ice in the glass to cool the drinks and my ice maker cant keep up.
The Chart in the post above that tracks the ice through the season as the sun melts it and then cold temps in winter refreeze it (we are talking about sea water here, and I understand that the thermocline of the ocean is in play here), will the ice being able to rotate end up solving the problem as deeper colder water can mix to the surface faster, promoting earlier ice formation after the equinox? Or the opposite, that mixing would not allow ice formation because the cooling surface water would sink faster before it crosses the 4C density inflection where cooler water starts floating above warmer?
Sorry to ramble a bit, I am just projecting my little lake here in Colorado (Lake Dillon) melting in spring compared to an area larger than I can comprehend.
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wili at 22:11 PM on 19 October 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #42
Thanks for continuing to cover El Nino. How big of a factor is it in these enormous peat fires in Indonesia?
Carbon emissions from Indonesia’s peat fires exceed emissions from entire U.S. economy
Moderator Response:[JH] I doubt that we can provide you with any information that is not contained in the excellent Mongabay article that you link to.
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spunkinator99 at 19:56 PM on 19 October 2015Models are unreliable
Tom,
Thanks a ton! I'll take a look at your links. Should be helpful with my ultra-conservative friends!
Mike
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robert_13 at 16:15 PM on 19 October 2015It's the sun
Adding to the response to biocab at 03:45 AM on 13 September, 2007:
In addition to the amplifying effect of water are three other very significant factors that keep water from swamping CO(2):
1) The total water on the planet doesn't increase or decrease. Earth is an essentially closed system in terms of water, so this is why all water can do to increase warming is amplify some other factor that is changing. This is both logically trivial and utterly inescapable in big picture. The most severe amplification comes from increased ocean temperatures initially decreasing the solubility of CO(2) in the oceans to reduce their CO(2) sequestration, eventually followed by release of previously absorbed CO(2) in ocean water to increase atmoshperic CO(2) and accelerate the process past a tipping point of no return.
2) Only water vapor is a greenhouse gas. Hardly any exists above 10 km altitude. CO(2) continues at 400 ppm all the way up to over 80 km. There is enough CO(2) above 10 km to be practically opaque to infrared at CO(2) spectral wavelenths. All but the 15 micron wavelength overlaps the spectral emissions of water vapor, absorbing and re-emitting them omnidirectionally, which includes back to earth, of course. The 15 micron wavelength comes from both the earth's surface, but more importantly, also from kinetic collisions that convert thermal energy in both non-greenhouse and greenhouse gases to radiant energy (IR) at all CO(2) and other greenhouse gas emissive wavelengths.
3) This conversion of thermal energy in both greenhouse and non-greenhouse gases to radiant IR via kinetic excitation of CO(2) and other greenhouse gases is efficient, since the average lifetime of an excited CO(2) molecule (up to a few milliseconds) is much longer than the average time between collisions with non-greenhouse gases (~1 microsecond). The kinetic excitation of a greenhouse molecule is a field excitation phenomenon. The significant practical extent of the electric field of a greenhouse gas molecule is typically hundreds of times the size of the colliding non-greenhouse gas particles, so the easy target adds to the conversion efficiency.
Therefore most of the energy radiated out into the perfect thermal insulator, space, from the upper atmosphere (just above the troposphere around 10 km and up) is radiated by CO(2) (~68%, with ~16% directly from the surface, and ~13% from water vapor, wth the small remainder by other greenhouse gases). This clearly implies that the upper atmosphere radiates just as much back down, making CO(2) the major factor returning radiant heat to earth from the upper atmosphere. Much of this reaches the atmosphere near the surface mediated by water vapor via the spectral signature in common with CO(2) and the earth's surface itself by conversion to thermal heat upon striking it.
We can clearly deduce from the inevitably of omnidirectional radiation from CO(2) in the upper atmosphere that what goes out into space represents an equal amount going back toward earth. It's mediation by the other factors just referred to makes its very substantial contribution less obvious at the surface.
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PhilippeChantreau at 13:22 PM on 19 October 2015Other planets are warming
Response to sjw40364 from inappropriate thread: I looked at all the links provided, and not a single one of them alludes to a warming of the climate of the planets mentioned. Suggesting that any of these articles indicates a warming climate on the planets considered indicates that sjw did not read or understand the articles.
At best, the Venus and Mars articles underline how we can attempt to better understand their climates, emphasizing that we don't understand them well.
Climate on Earth is defined by a baseline of 30 years. For Mars, Jupiter and other planets going outward from the Sun, 30 orbits translates into respectively 56, 356, 884, 2522, 4947 and 7435 years. That is what would be required to establish a baseline, if we had instruments capable of reliably measuring enough climate parameters. Then we would need proxies to establish the true existence of any significant departure from normal conditions. We are not even fully understanding weather events happening on these planets.
The argument that other planets are warming is one of the most ridiculous ever spewed by fake skeptics.
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PhilippeChantreau at 12:57 PM on 19 October 2015Other planets are warming
MagicWizard, why would forces that we can not detect have more of an effect than the forces that we can detect. We can detect freakin's neutrinos for God's sake, why would something that we can't detect have such a hufe effect, which is perfectly explicable by the forces we can detect?
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PhilippeChantreau at 12:49 PM on 19 October 2015There is no consensus
Response to sjw40364 on the appropriate thread.
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Tom Dayton at 12:44 PM on 19 October 2015Models are unreliable
spunkinator99: See also Bart Verheggen's post "John Christy, Richard McNider and Roy Spencer trying to overturn mainstream science by rewriting history and re-baselining graphs." And a new comment I just posted on the satellites SkS post.
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Tom Dayton at 12:44 PM on 19 October 2015Satellites show no warming in the troposphere
Relevant to the lower troposphere and satellites:
- Ed Hawkins, "Is there a pause in the temperature of the lower troposphere?," Dec. 2014
- Jos Hagelaars. "Klotzbach Revisited," explaining briefly the expected relationship between the surface temperature and the lower troposphere temperature, the uncertainties about that, and the issues with the satellite measurements
- Isaac Held, "54. Tropical tropospheric warming revisited: Part 1," giving much more detail on what is expected and what has been observed
- Christopher Hogan's comment at RealClimate, giving a short list of reasons to be properly skeptical of any purported pause in the lower troposphere, and links to more thorough explanations
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Tristan at 10:03 AM on 19 October 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #42
Meanwhile, over at Gina Rinehart's favourite website, Dr David Evans, PhD has gone full Galileo, and his wife has so far devoted 13 posts to it.
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grindupBaker at 07:11 AM on 19 October 2015Skeptical Science honoured by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry
@Me#10 I know that I have a mismatch between 1a) & 2) because I've intentionally omitted any feedbacks already started and underway in 1a) and I've included them in 2). Too much time spent on some analysis in response to a trite non-useful comment #3 above that must itself have consumed all of 10 seconds of the commenter's time.
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grindupBaker at 07:03 AM on 19 October 2015Skeptical Science honoured by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry
@fletch92131 #3:
1) Your "probably only in the models themselves" is incorrect unless you are basing it upon your assumption that no carbon will be burned from next year until 2100 (you didn't say). It certainly isn't "probably only in the models" for two independent reasons.
1a) The ocean surface is currently 0.3 degrees cooler than it needs to become because it's been kicked hard the last 45 years and it needs up to 100 years to re-stabilize at its new higher steady temperature. So that's 0.9+0.3=1.2 degrees is to be the actual surface warming since ~1880 in 2100 if no carbon was burned from tomorrow until 2100. That's at the 54% of the known logarithmic effect for 560 ppmv atmospheric CO2 so if there is no additional heating from methane from permafrost melting, and no additional heating from dark land and sea being revealed to the Sun when there's less Arctic ice, and if the greenhouse effect from moister air that's kept this planet surface warmer for 600,000,000 years should just happen by utter luck to plateau at today's GMST and go flat, and if the industrial pollution that's seen blocking out the Sun in major cities in China and elsewhere actually doesn't block out the Sun at all (an optical illusion ?) or if future humans really like bronchitis and so increase industrial pollution, then it's to be a definite 1.2 * 46% / 54% = 1.0 degrees more warming by the year that atmospheric CO2 reaches 560 ppmv with an extra 0.3 degrees warming over the next 100 years if coal stops being burned cold-turkey at 560 ppmv. That's a lot of "ifs". It's essentially certain that all my preceding "ifs" are incorrect. How can dark land and sea not warm more than with ice and snow ? How can methane not be released from the permafrost that's definitely melting ? How can air pollution not block sunlight ? Should humans intentionally double or triple the air pollution to hold to your ridiculous +1.0 degrees ? Why did the warming effect of moister air that worked fine for 600,000,000 years stop working this century ?
1b) A variety of analyses of paleoclimate over a variety of long periods indicates that the temperature change in degrees has been anywhere between 0.6x and 1.2x the TOA forcing in w/m**2 after the system has balanced. It is known by physics that the TOA forcing of doubling CO2 is 3.7 w/m**2 so that's a range of 2.2 to 4.4 degrees based on what has happened over long time scales in the past. Nothing whatsoever to do with computer simulation climate "models". The climate "models" show a similar range. The main purpose of climate "models" is to improve in the shorter term so that they can inform what will happen over a very short period such as a decade and perhaps even give some good insight into specific regional effects.
2) Your comment is senseless and thus cannot be responded to by persons who actually think and analyze, because you've failed to state additional carbon burned quantity, which is the entire topic. We are obliged to assume that you've computed that GMST will increase by 1.0 degrees in 2100 if no carbon was burned from next year until 2100. Okay, not bad then. I think you might be a tad high with +1.0 degrees if no carbon was burned from next year until 2100. If no carbon was burned from next year until 2100 then it's +0.3 degrees ocean surface balance plus +0.4 degrees because the Chinese people get completely fed up with bronchitis and anyway solar, hydro, nuclear, wind, geothermal and tide powers make no smoke, plus some fraction of a degree for albedo change & methane feedbacks. Actually, you are just about correct. GMST will increase by 1.0 degrees in 2100 if no carbon was burned from next year until 2100. Good thinking.
3) If GMST increases by 1.0 degrees by 2100 then this will be 0.9 (the current rise) + 1.0 = 1.9 degrees by 2100. This requires the oceans to warm by 1.3 degrees in order to keep up ( at which point the oceans would almost completely stop warming. This will take ~300 years. Ocean average temperature is now 3.2 degrees. When ocean average temperature is 4.5 degrees in ~300 years with your low-balled additional +1.0 degrees GMST by 2100 then it will be a vastly different (and vast) heat content in the oceans underpinning the surface climate.
By 2200 with your low-balled value oceans will need to reach 5.4 degrees average temperature if carbon is still being burned at present rate. More still by 2300, more still by 2400, more still by 2500 and then the coal ruins out. So why do we care about climate in 2100 and have no interest in climate of 2110 ? What's the logic ? The point is that there's ~4,000 GtC (1,800 ppmv) burnable carbon, mostly coal, and how much do you think S.B. burned ? Give a number. So how much do you think S.B. burned and how much have you computed that will warm the oceans from their present 3.2 degrees and have you determined that your suggested cut-off point will not create a disaster for much of the existing mix of species ?
Once the additional heat is in the oceans it cannot be removed on time scales less than tens of thousands of years. In the most recent example the oceans lost 3.5 degrees of temperature over 85,000 years (the last glaciation "ice age") and in order to do this it was necessary to hold GMST down as much as 6 degrees lower than today (so ~3 degrees average) for the 85,000 years and this caused ice sheets to cover the northern hemisphere pretty much all the way down to Spain. So, if future humans find that oceans averaging 2.2 degrees warmer than today create a disaster then how do they cool them in less than 85,000 years ? Do they intentionally create a quadruple-strength ice age for 20,000 years in order to undo the climate change ?
The bottom line on the above is that ocean average temperature has been kept within ranges of small fractions of 1 degree over eye-blink time scales such as a couple of thousand years. This ocean heat change speed that's starting is going into uncharted territory.
4) Re your confident science-based comment, please list details of your disagreement with scientists (as seen by me at IOS/DFO on Vancouver island) that river salmon would die out if river water temperature increased by 1.0 degrees on average.
5) To your actual topic "It's so unfortunate that people feel the need to label other individuals" what are our choices when individuals are so lazy as to make trite comments that add nothing whatsoever to the discussion ? Do we assume that the person is pleasant but lazy ? The nicest assumption within our range of choices is that the individual is an intelligent shill (I suppose genius shill would be the utter nicest), one of the more apt of our species projecting its superiority. If the individual were to comment such as "I've seen a paper/blog/video talk/lecture/discussion by Dr. Cleverpants explaining clearly how TCR with 560 PPMV CO2 will be 0.8 to 1.2 degrees warmer than today (you can read it *here*) and it appears very comprehensive and sensible and I've found nothing indicating that'll cause much problem for present species including humans" then others of us could appreciate that individual is carefully pondering this and might be correct and warrants discussion (even if the response should be "Dr. Cleverpants is a known paid denier and his science has been debunked *here* and *here*") but fact is that "individuals" so rarely do that thing. Individuals do a lot more of providing unexplained non-facts without some explanation that could be pondered and refuted such as mine above, and with an air of false authority that smacks of denier or actual shill, don't they #3 ?
Moderator Response:[PS] To all commentators. Please note the Comments Policy "No dogpiling" rule. We have had quite enough. Fletch92131 comment does not need more than 5 responders.
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Mal Adapted at 04:04 AM on 19 October 2015Skeptical Science honoured by the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry
fletch92131: "Anything larger than that increase is probably only in the models themselves, not in any real likelihood based on science or history of climate."
fletch92131's mistaken assertion clearly demonstrates the Dunning-Kruger effect, but doesn't reveal his underlying motivation for preferring his own ignorance to the lopsided consensus of working climate scientists. A quick search for "fletch92131" led me to a blog with a single post titled Saving California. The author makes his position clear at the outset:
California IS the Worst-Run State in the Nation. Included in this assessment is the state's attempt to lead the nation/world in fighting what the state calls “Climate Change”, as if any person or entity (state or federal government) can control climate!...
The explicit declaration of AGW-denial is tangential to the thrust of the post, which is that many functions of government should be performed by private, for-profit businesses. The author strongly approves of "efficiency", and while deploring subsidies for renewable energy, calls for California to increase its fossil-fuel production, dismissing both the cost of climate change that the FF industry has externalized, and the subsidies it receives. He argues that internalizing climate change costs in the prices of fossil energy is regressive, citing the George C. Marshall Institute, the cold-war defense think tank.
The blog site offers a brief biography of the author, which may also be of interest.
It appears that fletch91231's AGW-denial is motivated by pro-market ideology. Presumably his ideological commitment won't allow him to acknowledge a problem that the "free" market can't solve, namely that of externality. That would fit the definition of term "denial" in the specialized vocabulary of Psychology,
in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.
Since fletch91231 has accepted the denier label, I'll leave it at that.
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Tom Dayton at 02:01 AM on 19 October 2015Models are unreliable
spunkinator99: Be sure to read the comments on that satellites post, especially the ones in 2015, and follow my comments' links to Tamino's blog that examines balloon radiosonde temperature measurements and their curiously increasing discrepancy from satellite measurements beginning around the year 2000. And read Glenn Tamblyn's comment on Spencer's blog.
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