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Comments 27951 to 28000:
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ronald myers at 03:22 AM on 4 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
I have reworked the temperature anomaly and CO2 image. The temperature anomaly uses the average of the first 30 realisations of the HadCRUT4 data. I changed the base years to 1850 - 1880. I log transformed the CO2 and regressed it to the temperature anomaly. Correlation is 0.796. With more work, the CO2 concentrations can be alligned with the temperature anomaly lines.
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MA Rodger at 02:22 AM on 4 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
Ryland @1&7.
I'm not sure what your point is. I assume you are aware that your referenced Guardian article dates to 2009. Mind, it doesn't take much to get the papers to pop an angy editorial at the Met Office, as this Met press release from April this year shows.
If you look for real criticism of 2015 Met Office summer forecast stories, there was an item in the Exeter Express & Echo yesterday (the Met Office's Hadley Centre is in Exeter) complaining that the forecast average rainfall didn't match the 175% average that actually fell. (The whimps. Bournemouth got 230% in August, an August record, but not a word of complaint about weather forecasting. The sun always shines in Bournemouth!!!)
More seriously, there is chatter that the climate deniers of the new UK all-Tory government are doing their best to put the boot in the Met Office good and proper. If they can't get the CRU direct, the Met Office is a good alternative. Aren't they both jointly to blame for HadCRUT?
So we find the Gentlemen Who Prefer Fantasy re-blogging the ExeterE&E story and there are more viscious stories running round the rightist press which (with a few additional anachronistic stories for good measure) have been cut&pasted by the Gentlemen then nailed to the petrol pump on planet Wattsupia by the fair hand of Willard Watts himself.
The serious point, mentioned by the ExeterE&E, (with more coverage here) is the Met Office losing the BBC contract under rather odd circumstances.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:34 AM on 4 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
"Too big to fail" is a misleading term. That term is used to prolong irresponsible unsustainable gambles just because they have become very popular and profitable and to reward and protect those who obtained wealth and power from the unacceptable success of such pursuits.
The losses that should be faced by investors and employees and consumers whose perception of success are based on getting away with the understandably unacceptable gambles will clearly have to be forced on the current system. It is clear that the current system encourages leadership that will defend and promote the least acceptable economic activity that can be gotten away with.
What is needed is leadership that focuses on the constant improvement of the understanding of everything that is going on. And the required type of leadership would apply that understanding to encourage and promote development toward a lasting better future for all life on this amazing planet (something I contend is the only viable future for humanity on this or any other planet). That action by responsible leaders would include forcing changes of what has been developed. And that would include ensuring that those who hoped to benefit from unacceptable economic development wold suffer the losses they deserve in spite of the ability of misleading marketing to create perceptions of popular support for understandably unacceptable economic gambles.
The future of humanity clearly depends on the development of ways to ensure the success of that type of leadership in business and politics (to the detriment of unacceptable gamblers who desire short term personal benefit any way it can be gotten away with). Without such leadership the future is guaranteed to be more inhumane and immoral as there is more and fiercer 'competition to benefit the most from diminishing limited opportunities to get away with unacceptable actions'.
Hopefully, that type of leadership will develop in time to keep undeserved wealth and power from remaining in the hands of people who have clearly not responsibly limited their actions based on the developing understanding of what is going on. That leadership will admittedly be regionally unpopular to different degrees. So the requirement will become global leadership collectively pressuring and penalizing unacceptable regional and business leadership in the hopes that such actions will 'change the minds of those who have decided to try to get the most personal gain as quickly as possible in the least acceptable way they think they can get away with'.
And responsible global leadership clearly must not try to protect or defend undeserved perceptions of prosperity and wealth in already developed regions that deliberately continued to burn fossil fuels to obtain more competitive trade advantages or places that encouraged the increased export of fossil fuels for burning, particularly the export or burning of coal, oil sands or pet-coke (the worse than coal waste product from upgrading heavy oils like oil sands bitumen).
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Glenn Tamblyn at 21:01 PM on 3 September 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
Slightly of-topic but perhaps relevant to the mining comment KR references.
A discussion on Peak Mining. -
michael sweet at 20:00 PM on 3 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
Fairoaken,
This article on the extraordinary hurricane season in the Central Pacific is relevant. The predictions were that over the long term (longer than 10 years) strong hurricanes would increase. This year the Northern Hemisphere has set a record for most hurricane activity, it is just not in your back yard. Hawaii has been threatened three times. Until recently Hawaii was considered to be out of the Hurricane zone. AGW has put Hawaii at risk. Sandy was also a month after the normal end of Hurricane season in the NorthEast USA. Hurricanes are occasional occurances and a lot of chance is involved in exactly where they occur.. If hurricanes are increasing world wide it is only a matter of time before you get hit.
In addition to Hurricane Sandy, mentioned above, you did not notice the 2 category 5 hurricanes that hit central America in 2007.
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ronald myers at 18:09 PM on 3 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
Thanks Tristan. The shape of the CO2 curve did not change but the scale will. Initially, I use Excel regression and the correlation was 0.797 and assumed that I could use that. I log transformed the CO2 concentration and used repeated the regression in Excel. The correlation between CO2 and Temperature Anomaly went down to 0.796. I can use the heavy hand approach to rescaling the CO2 by using white numbers and manually placing the revised values in place of the ones that are there now. The major item I was trying to show is to have the first 30 years of CO2 align with the 0 for temperature anomaly.
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ryland at 17:25 PM on 3 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
The forecasts to which I referred were made by the UK Met Office as reported in the Guardian "This year was to be different, we were told. A "barbecue summer" – from no less an authority than the Met Office itself."
"Yesterday, though, the Met Office conceded what Britons have seen with their own eyes over the last few weeks: apart from a fortnight in June, the summer has been more soggy than sizzling. And it's not likely to get much better in August, a prediction that will disappoint, if not entirely surprise" (http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/29/summer-weather-forecast-rain-holiday)
These would appear to be credible forecasts from experienced meteorologists
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shoyemore at 16:26 PM on 3 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
An article very pertinent to the remarks of ryland and Fairoakien:
"Increasingly, projections about hurricanes or winter storm are being posted by a range of people and often it is hard to distinguish between a credible forecast by an experienced meteorologist or the opinion of a hobbyist that is getting ready for the high school prom. Such opinions can create conflict and confusion in potentially life-threatening situations."
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PhilippeChantreau at 15:15 PM on 3 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
Fairoakien, beside seconding CB Dunkerson in his request, I'll add that Sandy may have escaped you attention but certainly did not go unnoticed with the people on the East coast...
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Tristan at 12:11 PM on 3 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
Hi ronald. Keep in mind that we don't expect CO2 and temp to be linearly related, the linear relationship is between log(CO2) and temp.
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bozzza at 11:39 AM on 3 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
The 'too-big-to-fail' question is of course an excellent question!
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mrkt at 11:23 AM on 3 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
Question: Do energy companies continue to explore in the expectation that they will be paid by governments for those 'stranded assetts' when the governments finally begin to restrict extraction?
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scaddenp at 08:17 AM on 3 September 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
So you have much smaller systems that burn (yes, that produces CO2) fractions not useful for plastic to power the cracking (and cogenerate power while at it). If this is the only CO2 from FF in use, then I rather suspect the planet will cope ok (and certainly a lot better than current usage). The refining process would be different when the target is not to produce as much transport fuels (ie less cracking) as possible. Tuning for petrochemical production would be different.
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CBDunkerson at 05:28 AM on 3 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
Fairoakien, please cite this 2005 prediction of increased gulf coast hurricanes in the ten year period now past. Who made it? Where?
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ronald myers at 04:55 AM on 3 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
Sorry for the poor post on 37 and 38. I'm an old dog learning new things.
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Fairoakien at 04:52 AM on 3 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
Katrina. 10 years we were told because of global warming the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean are getting warmer. I agree.
Then the global warmimg forecasters/modelers said that the Gulf would suffer more and more violent hurricanes because of the warming.
Well that hasn't happened. No category 4 or 5 hurricanes ahve hit the east/South coasts in the 10 years. Florida has had the quietest 10 years of hurricanes.
in fact the drought in Texas and Oklahoma can be attributed to the lack of good tropical storms coming off the Gulf.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] All caps - a breach of the comments policy - removed.
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ronald myers at 04:22 AM on 3 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
Here is an alternative method of displaying two parameters on a single image. This was generated in PowerPoint and is two separate data sets. For the CO2 concentrations, I selected the Y axis to be displayed at the maximum value. I adjusted the maximum and minimum CO2 concentrations to coincide with the temperature that correlates with the regression values for the minimum and maximum temperature values.
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jef12506 at 00:43 AM on 3 September 2015You can’t rush the oceans (why CO2 emission rates matter)
Howardlee - Is there any research or understanding how the many micro-plastic particle gyres around the world are effecting the ocean carbon cycle?
It would seem to me that since plastic is carbon, as it slowly dissolves it would overwhelm the process.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:27 AM on 3 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
The concept of "Moral Hazard" is an interesting concept.
The reality is that many economists fail to consider that some humans have no morals. And they are encouraged to ignore that reality because admitting it leads to the obvious understanding that popularity and profitability are poor measures of acceptability. It also leads to the understanding that a system based on people being as free as possible to do as they please will degenerate as those who care less about the consequences of how they benefit clearly become the 'bigger winners'.
And rules alone are not an answer. Sports provides the best way of describing the behaviour. In a game without referees and meanigful penalties the result will be cheaters winning by deliberately doing things they understand are unacceptable. And the amount of unacceptable behaviour will increase with the perceived potential reward for getting away with the unacceptable behaviour (and immediate opportunity to benefit overrules any potential negative consequences in many risk taking evaluations). And in most sports new rules and methods of monitoring need to be developed as new ways of being unacceptable develop. And inspiet of the rules some people will try to argue against the application of the rule to something they did.
The economic system is similar to sport except that every aspect of it is subject to bigger reward for anyone who can get away with any form of less acceptable behaviour.
So the obvious conclusion is: Until humanity develops to the point where every human seriously pursues the best understanding of what is going on and diligently and responsibly strives to have all of their actions be leading toward the development of a lasting better future for all life on this amaing planet, there needs to be lots of effort put into constantly improving the effective restriction of what is allowed to be gotten away with in economic (and political) activity.
Acknowledging that leads to the understanding that much of the currently developed economic activity and perceptions of wealth and prosperity are an illusion, a very damaging reality poorly understood by many that some very wealthy powerful people fight to expand their personal benefit in. It is a system where the developed wealth and power will fight against admitting they do not deserve the perceptions they have gotten used to, the perceptions that were irresponsibly allowed to develop.
It is definitely a challenge to develop broad acceptance of that understanding of what is going on in a global society that has most people immersed in mass-marketing consumption based efforts to link and limit perceptions of acceptability, merit and value to perceptions of popularity and profitability which can be completely ammoral and likely be immoral.
The required action to address the developed better understanding of what is going on because of the burning of fossil fuels is challenged because it raises the awareness and understanding of the unacceptability of more developed economic activity than just the burning of fossil fuels.
Many books have written about this including Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring", Paul Hawken's "The Ecology of Commmerce", and most pointedly Naomi Klein's "This Changes Everything".
The failure of the current socio-economic-political games to develop lasting improvements of conditions for all of humanity is not a new understanding. What seems to be new are the simplistic claims that the system and what has developed are not the problem, the growth of human population is all that needs to be addressed.
Obviously what needs to be limited is the potential for success by humans who try to benefit or win by getting away with deliberately not caring to limit their actions based on the possible to understand unacceptability of how they try to benefit. It would be nice if all such humans would responsibly and considerately change their mind if given enough information presented in an appealing way, but that is clearly an unrealistic expectation.
Therefore, the required action is ensuring that the only actions permitted to succeed in the socio-economic-political games are actions that will promote and develop virtually eternally lasting activity all of humanity can benefit from (that will not be as popular or profitable as what might be able to be gotten away with). That will mean limiting the total human impact on renewables to the rate of renewing (that will also not be as popular or profitable as what might be able to be gotten away with). That does imply addressing the total human population number, but only after excessive consumption and impact by the highest impacting and consuming humans has been restricted (which will definitely not be popular or as profitable as what has been able to be developed).
This need is nothing new. The thoughts about how to limit the success of the unacceptable economic pursuers among us have even been the basis for religious edicts like bans on 'usury' many centuries ago. And before Rachel Carson, writers like Shakespeare and Dickens were trying to get the message out.
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CBDunkerson at 22:11 PM on 2 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
moreover wrote: "# 1 coal company Peabody at some point dipped to $1.10 per share - you get the picture."
They actually hit $0.99 briefly on July 28th. That said, while I've been noting the collapse of coal in the United States for several years now... it is not yet a global phenomenon. China and India have easy access to cheap coal... but are not as well situated for natural gas, wind, or solar. As wind and solar costs continue to decline that is changing, but coal seems like it is going to continue to be a major player in those and other regions for years.
Hopefully, they will look at studies like the one above and consider costs other than just the nominal price. When total costs are accounted for wind and solar are already cheaper than any of the fossil fuels nearly everywhere. China already seems to be reaching that conclusion due to their massive pollution problems, and India has recently shown signs of changing course too.
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bozzza at 20:11 PM on 2 September 2015It's not bad
A little birdy told me that there is no money for Glacier Research. Is this true?
If it is this can't be good can it?? If the myth being addressed is that the problem is not bad then can some mention of this be made in a revision of the answer to this skeptical questioning of the science.
I don't want to push the point and it's not my site but it would seem appropriate is all I'm saying.
I'm just saying it gives me the chills to hear that this could be a reality: that there is indeed no money for Glacier Research at a time when we are seeing funny rates of change to other indicators of climate change, namely the sea ice in the Arctic.
Isn't science all about corroboration?
Of course, this is an excellent web-site and we all enjoy using it.
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michael sweet at 19:40 PM on 2 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
Denisaf,
Please read the 100% of power can be provided by Renewables thread. It shows that all power in the economy can be produced by renewables. Alternate fuels are found for current liquid fuels. Please provide citations for your unsupported claim that there are additional hidden costs.
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ajki at 18:26 PM on 2 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
Remarks by the President (of US) at the GLACIER Conference — Anchorage, AK, September 01, 2015, transcript
Bold, blunt, honest.
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denisaf at 15:09 PM on 2 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
It is ironical that the arguments presented are based on intangible future financial costs. The reality is tangible natural physical resources are being used up for the operations of industrial civilization with the unintended consequence of causing climate disruption and ocean warming and acidification. The term 'renewable energy' refers to alternative infrastructure that can only be a small, worthwhile alternative to fossil fuels in some circumstances. They cannot provide alternative liquid fules for land, sea and air transports. A realistic evaluation of what should be done would take this reality into account because the actual future financial costs will be very dependent on this reality.
Moderator Response:[RH] You're going to have to substantiate the statement, "The term 'renewable energy' refers to alternative infrastructure that can only be a small" or retract it in order to continue with this thread.
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ryland at 10:30 AM on 2 September 20152015 SkS Weekly Digest #35
As the first day of Autumn arrives it is perhaps pertinent to note that despite the single "hottest day ever" on July 1 (transiently at Heathrow Airport) the forecast of a "BBQ summer" so loudly trumpeted by our wonderful Met Office, failed miserably (for us all) to arrive. I'm sure that when the records are reviewed and the appropriate adustments made, 2015 will be, globally at least, exceedingly warm but please can we be spared the never ending series of dud forecasts about snow and cold and sun and heat from the error prone BoM?
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ronald myers at 08:42 AM on 2 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
Like Tom Curtis (Comment 11) indicates the use of a reconstructed temperature existing prior to the industrial revolution and the expansion using fossil fuels should be the goal. If it is believed that only data collected with temperature measurements are considered adequate, then the use of the HadCRUT4 data should be considered to extend the baseline back by thirty years. But as I believe Rob Honeycitt (Comment 29) and Tom Curtis (Comment 30) infer but do not state, one could use the large number of temperature estimates which characterize not only the pre industrial temperatures but also estimates of the normal variability and rate of change.
I have extracted the first thirty of the one hundred Realisation's in the HadCRUT4 Gridded data: ensemble members data set. I averaged the monthly ensemble members to arrive at a monthly value. Then I averaged the 30 years from 1880 to 1910 and the 30 years from 1850 to 1880. The earlier period was warmer by only 0.07 C. While I used the arethmetic mean verses Hadley use of the median value, the difference is not significant since the data are nearly normally distributed (based on a skewness and kurtosis of less than 0.1).
Next, I downloaded the data used by 2010 Frank et.al. for their January Nature paper. I adjusted the baseline of that data to both a 1880 to 1910 timespan and a 1850 to 1880 timespan. I then averaged the temperature anomalies from year 1000 to 1800. The average anomaly for the 1800 pre industrial years was only 0.03 C different from the 1850 to 1880 period and only 0.06 C different from the later period.
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moreover at 06:14 AM on 2 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
Rob, I agree it was a missing moral hazard and you described the mechanism well. An excellent account of the mortgage crisis comes from economics prof Richard Wolff: "Housing Crisis, System Failure"
The massive decline of profitablility of the coal industry has already begun with the remaining players posting hundreds of millions of losses quarter after quarter.
Tuesday 8/4/15 #2 US coal company Arch Coal resorted to a a 10:1 reverse stock split that went into effect yesterday ( so their stock that had been worth about 17 cents/share went up (about) 10 fold in value and all of a sudden was worth about $1.60 per share. Otherwise they would have been kicked off the NYSE for being below $1 per share for too long.
Alpha Natural (ANR) was taken off the NYSE and filed for bankruptcy on Monday 8/3/15.
# 1 coal company Peabody at some point dipped to $1.10 per share - you get the picture.
Reuters tracks such figures, eg: Peabody stock figures
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:16 AM on 2 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
bvangerven... I'm not perfectly sure, but I think it's the reverse. There was a missing moral hazard in the banking crisis because, in the end, the lender banks were able to transfer the risk of their loans to the capital markets. And when those investment banks took on those consolidated loan packages and converted them into securities, they had no idea of their intrinsic value, but that also didn't matter to them because in a crash the taxpayer ends up having to bail them out.
There was a lack of moral hazard permiating the entire home loan industry when the banks operate in a way that they have no risk. It didn't matter to them because they're so large and so important to the economy of the nation, the government can't allow them to fail.
The risk in the FF industry, as I understand it, has to do with the fact that the valuation of FF companies is buoyed by the idea that they can continue to explore and extract reserves. The reality is, they can't continue to extract those assets and those assets are going to have to stay in the ground. So there is "wasted capital" in terms of exploring for reserves that ultimately can't be extracted that, in turn, become "stranded assets."
See Carbon Trackers: Unburnable carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets report.
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ianw01 at 00:47 AM on 2 September 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
@scaddenp (#69): Agreed, up to a point. Remember that only a fraction of petroleum is suitable as feedstock for plastics, and that processes such as cracking take a lot of energy. Doing something other than burning the non-feedstock fraction will take considerable discipline, or incentives.
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MA Rodger at 00:00 AM on 2 September 2015Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
braintic @78.
The "one match every 3½ years not 20 years" concerns the one match in the room to raise the CO2 level.
A comparison without getting too confusing. I am saying the room is bigger than your estimate (your room 30% the size of mine) and my match estimate works out smaller (my carbon content estimate for a standard sized matchstick 0.055g(C) to your 0.093g(C)).
This still leaves the size of matchstick that Giaever is working to. If he estimates the air in the room and atmosphere correctly, his match would be very big indeed at 0.3g(C), even bigger than a large kitchen match (0.34g per item, so carbon content 0.17g(C) each).
As for your strike rate, that would increase with the smaller matches from 1.3 matches/person/minute to 2.3. But note that only represents the carbon from car exhaust pipes that remains in the atmosphere. If this mass striking of matches is carried out in the open air, much of the released carbon would be absorbed by oceans and biosphere. We would have to strike 5 matches/person/minute to achieve the same rate of carbon release that car exhaust pipes do.
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bvangerven at 23:13 PM on 1 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
(From wikipedia:) “In economics, moral hazard occurs when one person takes more risks because someone else bears the burden of those risks. A moral hazard may occur where the actions of one party may change to the detriment of another after a financial transaction has taken place.”
The mortgage crisis of 2007 was caused by moral hazard.
The same mechanism is now at work in the fossil fuel industry: although the potential damage in a business as usual scenario is enormous, it is not the fossil fuel industry that will bear the consequences.
Therefore I am strongly in favor of eliminating the moral hazard, as follows: make it clear to the fossil fuel industry that they WILL have to pay the bill. Either in the shape of a carbon tax that will allow society to evolve to a low carbon society, or in the shape of damage compensation. As the report from Citibank shows, in the latter case the bill will be much higher. -
braintic at 19:30 PM on 1 September 2015Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
I'm not sure what you are saying in your last sentence.
I didn't say "one match every 20 years".
I said one match every minute FOR 20 years.
Further, when carbon burns to give carbon dioxide, it combines with oxygen from the air, so it picks up mass. The molecular weight of carbon is 12. The molecular weight of carbon dioxide is 44, with the extra mass coming from an external source. So you have to multiply your estimated mass of carbon dioxide by 44/12.
Re the ratio of atmosphere to room size - yes I was considering volume instead of quantity of air, so that calculation would be out somewhat.
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bozzza at 15:29 PM on 1 September 2015Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends
Dear bad-chess-player,
we all know property developers and how real money, not to mention big government, is made by importing more customers and guess what: providing a power base to allow it all!
It's called Jevons Paradox and you sell it!!
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bozzza at 15:18 PM on 1 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
..this perception of wealth is done via Hollywood!
**Sex sell!
It's called Jevons Paradox!
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:39 PM on 1 September 2015Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars
There are additional factors fueling the opposition to doing what the constantly improving understanding of things indicates needs to be done.
There are many consumers who perceive themselves to be prosperous because of the jobs they can have and the energy and personal benefit they can get cheap as long as they defend the developments that have been gotten away with by "the group of wealthy people who have clearly understood the unacceptability of their pursuits for at least the past 25 years".
As a resident of Alberta, Canada, I am very familiar with the push for perceptions of prosperity through the expansion of the rate of extraction and sale of fossil fuels. The oil and gas and coal were pushed out through the 1990s. As the conventional oil and gas was depleted it was realized that they had to move fast to benefit from the burning of the oil sands, moving it out quickly to be burned by others.
Popularity and profitability can clearly be misleading measures of the merit, value and acceptability of things (or people). The misguided belief in the virtue and value of those things clearly needs to be overcome. And the misguided belief that 'everyone being freer to do as they please will develop good results' is another significant factor that needs to be changed.
The opposition to that adaptation of humanity to deal with the challenge of the impacts from the unacceptable popular pursuits of profit will always be strong. There is likely to always be a significant minority of humanity looking for ways to get away with the least acceptable (cheapest), things they can. Simple rules easily monitored and enforced are likely to be the most effective ways of dealing with that challenge.
Globally, maybe there needs to be a rapid transition to a ban on the export of fossil fuels by any nation (or region in a nation). After all, in less than 50 years that will need to be the global reality combined with the reality that nations or regions with fossil fuels won't even be allowed to burn them up internally, especially regions in currently developed nations.
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Tom Curtis at 12:13 PM on 1 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
CBDunkerson @34, BEST gives an Alaskan trend increase of 1.58 C from 1860-2014, and 1.08 C from 1910-2014. The trend increase from 1960, however, is 1.88 C per century. The sharp increase may be because of a cooling trend from 1860-1960, or because earlier data was obtained only from southern coastal regions and the Yukon Valley, both of which show reduced trends relative to Northern Coastal regions. (Seen clearly in the GISS 250 km trend map.)
More importantly, I don't think targets work like that. Specifically, in tropical regions, because of low annual temperature ranges and a small gap to the maximum tolerable wet-bulb temperature, small increases in temperature will be more harmfull than much larger increases in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic. Against that, the absolute threshold for melting ice is a significant factor in the Arctic in general, and Alaska in particular. Temperature increases in the Arctic that raise summer sea and/or permafrost temperatures above freezing will be far more harmful in the general context than much larger increases above that level. So, depending on latitutude and local conditions, a significant increase may have relatively little effect but once a threshold is crossed the impacts can rapidly become quite large. To complicate things further there are no doubt other thresholds (relating, for example, to the life cycle of beatles) which will also have significant effects. The upshot is that impacts will not scale simply with temperature increase, and will vary significantly from region to region, and event within a small radius based on local topology for a given level of increase.
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PhilippeChantreau at 08:04 AM on 1 September 2015Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends
So far qikplay has not shown signs that he is interested in considering the scientific evidence. I would suggest DNFTT.
Moderator Response:[JH] Excellent advice. qiklplay does not understand that posting on the SkS comment threads is a privilege, not a right. He is on the verge of relinqusihing his privilege.
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CBDunkerson at 05:02 AM on 1 September 2015Tracking the 2C Limit - July 2015
Hey, Obama's trip to Alaska got me thinking... given that 'the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the globe as a whole'... would that imply that places like Alaska and Siberia are already AT the '2 C limit'?
Obviously, the 2 C limit is meant as a global average, but is there some applicability as each regional area passes that thresh-hold? That is, are the level of changes being seen in Alaska currently similar to what the whole world will see at 2 C?
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New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
tder2012 - Personally, I do not expect the path to low-carbon energy to be simple, and many of the proposals for accomplishing that are indeed more thought experiment than detailed proposals.
However, if we were to implement costs on fossil fuels commensurate with their impacts, such as a carbon tax, accompanied by government policies supporting rather than undercutting renewables, I expect the move to low-carbon energy in all sectors of the worlds economies will occur simply due to the profit motive.
The second reference you put forth, Vidal et al 2013, has as its abstract:
Renewable energy requires infrastructures built with metals whose extraction requires more and more energy. More mining is unavoidable, but increased recycling, substitution and careful design of new high-tech devices will help meet the growing demand.
Given the doubtful tone of your post, I would have to note that the referred article is actually quite optimistic.
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Rob Honeycutt at 00:58 AM on 1 September 2015Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends
qikplay... Do you understand the relative forcing of those solar cycles on the climate system compared to other forcings? The difference in the last two solar cycles relative to the previous few is a teenie-tiny signal lost in the background noise. You're talking a small fraction of a watt/m2 relative to the 1361W/m2 of incoming solar radiation. We are lucky to orbit a very stable star.
You should consider the 2.3W/m2 of forcing from increased human activities as the culprit for the the changes we see in our climate system.
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:15 AM on 1 September 2015Here’s what happens when you try to replicate climate contrarian papers
mancan18,
My observations of recent history, following the attempts of many people to develop improved understanding and raise awareness about the unacceptability of developed profitable and popular economic activity, indicate that a major barrier to 'the development of legitimate scientific development of the best understanding of what is going on, the general acceptance of that increased understanding, and the application of the understanding to develop lasting improvements of living conditions for all of humanity on this amazing planet' is a focus on "Scientific development that will lead to profitable and popular pursuits, including the science of marketing to promote those pursuits".
The pursuers of profit and popularity clearly have little reason to investigate and educate the population about the potential unacceptability of their pursuits. They may investigate them, but they choose what to promote about their pursuits. And since it is always cheaper if you can get away with a less acceptable action the chase after popularity and profitability naturally leads to a deliberate lack of awareness regarding the unacceptability of things, either because of a lack of investigation (the ones making the money are not interested in understanding the unacceptability of the ir pursuits), or a lack of sharing what has been learned (If the ones making the money become aware of an unacceptablilty related to their pursuits they will not want others to know about that unacceptability).
And people who pursue personal perceptions of prosperity can have little interest in hearing about the unacceptability of the cheaper ways they have been able to get away with believing they are prosperous. Cheaper ways almost always are more damaging and are ultimately unsustainable limited opportunities that people have to fight to be the biggest beneficiaries of (to the detriment of others).
The pursuit of profit, pleasure and perceptions of prosperity today can be seen to be the equivalent of religion in the 17th Century. That focus is a barrier to the development and acceptance of increased understanding of what is going on. Popularity and profitability today have clearly been a barrier to the development of human activity toward a lasting better future for all of humanity, just as the unjustified religious beliefs were in the past (and still are in many regions, including in developed nations, on many issues today).
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howardlee at 23:56 PM on 31 August 2015You can’t rush the oceans (why CO2 emission rates matter)
Hi BC. According to one recent paper:
...so the impact of reduced uptake factor is already happening and will get much worse this century.
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DSL at 23:05 PM on 31 August 2015Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends
Qikplay, quick questions:
1. How long is a solar cycle?
2. What has happened to global mean surface temperature and ocean heat content during the last two solar cycles?
Show the evidence that forms the basis of your claims. Do you have numbers? Do you understand the relative strength of the 11-year solar cycle? Or are you just acting as a puppet or conduit for the claims of others. -
tder2012 at 22:19 PM on 31 August 2015New paper shows that renewables can supply 100% of all energy (not just electricity)
"A critical review of global decarbonization scenarios: what do they tell us about feasibility?" from that article "Given the multiplicity of feasibility challenges associated simultaneously achieving such rapid rates of energy intensity improvement and low-carbon capacity deployment, it is likely to be both premature and dangerously risky to ‘bet the planet’ on a narrow portfolio of favored low-carbon energy technologies." http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/wcc.324
Also from the journal "Nature Geoscience" - "Metals for a low carbon society" http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n11/full/ngeo1993.html
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MA Rodger at 21:23 PM on 31 August 2015It's the sun
qikplay @1152.
You may feel trawling SkS to identify posts to criticise is helpful but do pause a while. The BBC 'myth' addressed in the post here dates to 2004 and was written by David Whitehouse, a man suffering deep denial on AGW. Indeed, he has since been recruited by the GWPF (Gentlemen Who Prefer Fantasy). Whitehouse reports the work of Solanki which have been lost and forgotten by all but AGW deniers. And that is because the evidence, the data and graphs, demonstrates Solanki is plain wrong. You appear to reject the use of "competing graphs and data" as a way examining the unsupported fantasy of the likes of Solanki. How then would you suggest we examine his wild claims?
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MA Rodger at 21:18 PM on 31 August 2015Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
braintic @76.
The room and the match anaolgy, "Iian Samson's problem" (at 27 mins in the video) is new to me. I found no internet comment so I did a quick back-of-the-envelop calculation.
The ratio of atmosphere to the room is a little bigger than you calculate. Taking the troposphere as 80% of the full atmosphere yields a gas content of 3 x 1016 rooms. The analogy's use of CO2 levels increased by cars alone is a bit curious, but this is usually considered as 10% of the total CO2 emissions, thus perhaps causing +0.22ppm/year.
That leaves the match. Perhaps Giaever uses giant matches, but the usual sort, the sort used by marchstick model makers weigh 0.11g. With 50% carbon content that puts the answer at one match every 3½ years not 20 years, a significant difference.
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qikplay at 21:14 PM on 31 August 2015Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends
its obvious we are feeling the effects of the last 2 solar cycles being low, with polar vortexes and snows in August and july in calgary and hawaii respectivly..
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Jim Hunt at 18:14 PM on 31 August 2015Arctic sea ice has recovered
Rovinpiper - Look at this figure from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
Arctic sea ice extent is currently over two standard deviations below "normal". Now click the "Antarctic" tab and take a look at this one:
Antarctic sea ice extent is currently below "normal". Now consider the respective locations of all that sea ice when the sun is shining on it. The ice at the South Pole is more than a meter thick on midsummer's day!
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bozzza at 15:42 PM on 31 August 2015Here’s what happens when you try to replicate climate contrarian papers
@12,
mancan: well written except you forgot one thing in the scientific method.
Step 7- write the dang report!
~X^o'///,<
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Tom Dayton at 11:51 AM on 31 August 2015Hockey stick is broken
Jim Milks compiled a list of three dozen replications of the hockey stick, and that's only up through 2013.
Hat tip to Jack Dale via David Appell.
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