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ryland at 03:39 AM on 25 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
I posted a comment addressing the prejudices of the Guardian and the SMH which has not appeared perhaps because I was critical of these two papers. That said it is heartening to read in the SMH (May 24 2015) pieces noting the 2011 floods in Queensland were not due to climate change but to human error and that the cost to households of solar panels has outwibghed their benefits
Moderator Response:[JH] Your prior post was deleted because it was nothng more than nonsensical sloganeering.
Sloganeering is prohibited by the SKS Comments Policy.
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sgbotsford at 03:11 AM on 25 May 2015Seeds of Time - preserving food resources in a hot future climate
The norway project is a good way to preserve the actual genes. However we need to take a mass scale to do the same with food. E.g. Store several year's grain supply.
This goes against the whole "Just in Time" system in industry. Look instead to collecting pools of resources that can be used later. Inventory, instead of being a liability should be an asset — subject to re-valuation as times change.
If you are going to store 7 years grain supply, you need massive silos, good pest control, and possibly controlled atmosphere conditions. All costs money. On the other hand, companies that do this are in a position to gain on the arbitrage between bounty years and lean years.
Probably quite doable with minor changes to tax laws — make it easier to write off storage costs, including lost revenue for tied up capital.
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PhilippeChantreau at 02:18 AM on 25 May 2015Climate's changed before
RoamerNZ, I find your post rather offensive. You confessed earlier having limited knowledge and understanding of the subject at hand, yet you address pretty much all contributors here with such thing as "have you informed yourself about this data?" without specifying what such data is or providing any useable reference. People participating to this forum are usually very well informed about climate science. Many of the contributors/moderators here have published papers in reputable journals. Since you are, by your own admission, the one rather less informed about the whole field, your condescending tone is unwarranted.
References are needed for many of your assertions, especially the ones that are more specific or mention numbers:
"But for every yay sayer there is an opposite." The various consensus studies so far indicate that, in fact, the "opposites" are outnumbered by approximately 97 to 3. There are more appropriate threads to discuss this, if you want to provide credible evidence to the contrary.
This part here: "In fact earth cooled a whopping 4 degrees from 1450 to 1850 in fact earth has warmed up to 4 degrees 4 times in the last 450 thousand years a fairly regular cycle at that of about 100 thousand years.. We enter the fifth cycle now" That requires some serious backing by real scientific work, the kind published in well established science journals. I'm waiting to see it before taking it seriously. If it is an attempt to refer to the alternance of glacial/interglacial periods, the subject is well studied, consistent with the consensus model of Earth climate, and you should go to the appropriate threads.
"It's all to do with Jupiter apparently." This was one the very first pieces of nonsense that I personally debunked on SkS during the early years of the site. Some cited also Mars, and even Pluto, which took us to the height of stupidity. It is complete nonsense. But by all means, cite scientific evidence on the proper thread if you have any.
On SkS, you don't get to make up stuff or equate opinion with evidence. The preponderance of scientific evidence is what is considered. It takes some work to determine in which direction that points, but it's worth doing that work, because that is most likely where reality resides. If you're unwilling to do that work, you essentially give up and rationalize your choice of opinion with unfounded ideas of competing theories and competing experts of equal value, which couldn't be farther from reality. Not everything is a matter of opinion, especially in the physical world.
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SkepticalinCanada at 00:57 AM on 25 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
Now, if only those 25 newspapers would also team up to make sure that their online comments sections were about the science of human-caused global warming as well. Clicking on almost any of the links to their articles and then going to their comments sections brings up a disgusting repetition of personal attacks, unscientific nonsense, the usual memes from the deniosphere's script, and so on. I'm not saying cut off one particular point of view when it comes to the science, but how about raising the bar a bit and turning them into real discussions? Kudos to Skeptical Science for leading the way on that.
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Roger D at 00:55 AM on 25 May 2015Climate's changed before
by 'nformation above', I meant this Sks page
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Roger D at 00:54 AM on 25 May 2015Climate's changed before
Roamernz,
You seem to be trying to advance the idea that people seeking to determine who to believe regarding the likely impacts of antrhopogenic influences on the atmosphere just cannot figure it out because a) climate changes on various timescales for varioius reasons, and b) one can find experts and supposed experts that disagree on causes and whether warming or cooling is more likely.
This information above addresses well a). On b), simply put, you simply need to have apropriate descretion to weed out quacks. Wikipedia nots that Abdussamatov, who you apparantly give as an example of why we just can't determine whether we will warm or cool in the future,"holds that Earth's atmosphere does not produce a greenhouse effect."
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Roamernz at 23:36 PM on 24 May 2015Climate's changed before
Tristan .. I did not say they were my interpretations.. It is an opinion formed after listening to climatologist. Yes some are of a different persuasion than the one you proclaim., And they are compelling.
Each of us must form our own opinion there is no "carte Blanche" to be filled with your version.
i also did did not say anything about you or any one else not knowing why.the heating is taking place. What I am not buying into is that we are solely responsible especially in the light that this happens over and over on this planet long before the blink of an eyelid that we have been here.
i would also never presume or assume to give insight to any true scientist.. I was merely expressing an opinion.. Based on what I believe to be plausible and for you this is a problem as I am not convinced otherwise.
Because of the wiggle.. We are heating up.. But you seem to say because of the current conditions the planet cannot do anything but.. I presume by conditions you mean human activity.
And you can categorically guarantee that if all human co2 emissions stopped today .. The heating up would stop permanently? I find that impossible to believe knowing what we know of earth and her idiosyncratic movements. It's akin to saying if humans stop moving around ..the magnetic polar shift won't happen again.
Michael.. Sure, deniers at the time did not see the warming as alarmingly large.. Since they now have irrefutable evidence it is heating.. The question then came.. Why? And this is where argument is. (Btw the deniers aren't necessarily the same people). And what is wrong with the argument .. It's happened before? .. It has.. Many times!
Yes predictions for global warming happened 120 years ago.. But for every yay sayer there is an opposite.. In 1837 louis agazzi presented the opinion the planet had cooled and then warmed only to cool again with a new ice age on the horizon. (In fact earth cooled a whopping 4 degrees from 1450 to 1850 in fact earth has warmed up to 4 degrees 4 times in the last 450 thousand years a fairly regular cycle at that of about 100 thousand years.. We enter the fifth cycle now) .. This concept was met by skepticism only to later be accepted. Many papers have been produced predicting severe cooling 2042 onwards one such scientist is russian astrophysics habibullo abussamatov
so you see some one is predicting cooling when it is now warming.. Opposite to your point. But as bozza would say.. These are joining issues and the warming is the precursor for cooling even the possibility of a "snowball" earth.. as it once was and may happen again Have you informed yourself about this data?
the earth is heating and will cool again.. But it has nothing to do with our activities.. It will do it regardless as it has for billions of years. It's all to do with Jupiter apparently
Im glad you'll be looking after me bozza .. very comforting :)
Moderator Response:[JH] Personal opinion carries very little weight on this site. Please provide appropriate scientific documentation of your assertions in your future posts.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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MA Rodger at 22:55 PM on 24 May 2015The climate 'hiatus' doesn’t take the heat off global warming
dcpetterson @33.
You ask for comment on your blog post.
You are correct that a regression for the full period covered in all three of Mad Monckton of Brentchley analyses would provide a positive trend but it would be very very small (I make it +0.05ºC/century) and statistically insignificant.
His Lordship's delicate adjustments of the period being examined are purely so he can get a big fat zero in trend. Different choices of start & end points during this short period allow him to achieve this as the wobbles in RSS data (which are larger than the wobbles in surface temperature records) continue to bounce along just over and occasioanally under zero. Your primary finding and your accusation of cherry-picking his time-intervals as presented in your blog post is thus no great revelation.You are correct in pointing to Monckton's dodgy choice of temperature record. RSS TLT attempts to measure a weighted temperature from surface to stratosphere. The weightings of the TLT measurements does give a lower average altittude than TMT but the descriptor "lower" is otherwise less than accurate and RSS TLT is certainly no substitute for surface measurements.
And your criticism that the period chosen by Mad Monckton is too short is also correct. He effectively is arguing using the contrarian 'escalator'.
As this woodfortrees plot demonstrates, the Viscount has managed to magic away most of the temperature increase shown in the RSS data.
My own analysis for the length of the 'pause' using RSS data show that the accumulating RSS data gives a steepening rate of warming up to mid-2004. (For surface temperature records the steepening continues into 2007.) That means RSS TLT temperatures were accelerating up to 2004 which is entirely incompatable with a 'pause' in temperature rise starting in 1996. And plotting the trend of surface temperature measurements and including more recent data demonstrates that since last autumn surface temperature records are again showing a steepening trend in global temperature rise. That surely means the 'pause' (if we were to call it that) has at the least 'paused'. -
fpjohn at 22:19 PM on 24 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
"Cutting warming to 1.5°C could endanger food supply" and "Limiting global warming to 1.5C is still possible, say scientists" refer to a common source, a Nature Climate Change article
Rogelj, J. et al, (2015) Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2572
yours
Frank Johnston
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HK at 21:50 PM on 24 May 20152015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #21B
NOAA has updated its global ocean heat content. It seems that they will soon have to expand their y-axis – again!
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Yves at 20:23 PM on 24 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
Complements from previous comment (#12): To be fair, the 0.55 K/decade cooling trend given by Chriskoz concerns 50 hPa, which should be compared with the C10 channel centered at 20 km height. There, the 1999-2013 trend is still cooling but at a lower rate: 0.24 K/decade, cf. http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html
But:
(1) considering the short period and the noise of both time series, this figure doesn't show unequivocally an inflexion of the previous trend;
(2) comparing the different channels (C10,11,12,13,14 at respectively 20,25,30,35 and 40 km heights), the 1999-2013 cooling trends are increasing with height from 0.24 to 0.76 K/decade. As for the synthetical C25 data which emulate the SSU time series, they show a 0.40 K/decade trend for the same period. -
Yves at 13:49 PM on 24 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
@Chriskoz (#10):
The lower stratosphere might have stopped cooling because of the beginning of the recovery of the ozone hole. But the middle stratosphere is still cooling, according to RSS analyses, about 0.5 K/decade from 1999 to 2013 (see AMSU channel C13), very close to the 0.55 K/decade you cited for 1960-2010.
Cf. http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature -
bozzza at 08:43 AM on 24 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Also, no: I do not dislike government intervention- I understand better than most that Government helps farmers to even grow a marketable product let alone provide standards that stop people dying in the workplace in all manner ways: I'm not a dumb lib... simply just trying to put forward a fair view of the world worthy of discussion rather than circular back-patting!
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bozzza at 08:41 AM on 24 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
I accept the argument is not strong. I read OPOFs comments(just seconds ago infact,... well minutes because I did ponder it to make sure i understood it and not fly off on a tangent like I can do as it was written well enough to show he knows a few things) and conclude that business certainly can be a very dark world. I wasn't disputing that but perhaps I should digress from sticking up for its shennanigans.. yes I understand you are saying these are not simply business shennanigans we are talking about but rather complete deception for no purpose.
I'm a greens/labor voter but I still try and justify how the world works...as we all do of course.
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nigelj at 08:28 AM on 24 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Bozzza, you appear to be basically using your dislike of government input into markets as some weak excuse to try to justify people opposed to this stooping to dishonesty. You constantly make excuses for dishonesty or other unethical behaviour. I doubt that you are really playing devils advocate, and your argument doesn't even pass first base.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:14 AM on 24 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Bozza,
My MBA and life experience has helped me understand that what many refer to as 'market-forces' are just artificial motivations of human attitudes and actions based on a set of artificial rules put in place by humans. And the current rules have been significantly developed through the influence of people who knowingly will pursue unacceptable ways of personally benefiting as much as they are able to get away with.
References to 'government interference' come from a perspective of someone inclined to believe that all people free to do as they please will naturally produce a lasting constantly improving better future for all. The actual facts of the matter clearly contradict that belief. Potential profitability and popularity of actions that can be understood to be unacceptable leads many people to fight for 'freedom from any and all restrictions'. And those pushing for such freedom are also very likely to be the ones wanting more rules and enforcement, but only selectively applied and focused on the things they do not personally like others to have the freedom to do. Their main purpose for such actions and policy is to protect their opportunity to get away with unacceptable pursuits of personal benefit because they are 'deemed to not be illegal or their actions are selectively not monitored and penalized'. They will even use their influence to promote the waging of war (in other nations), to 'protect their personal interests and deaires'. -
funglestrumpet at 00:51 AM on 24 May 2015Seeds of Time - preserving food resources in a hot future climate
With the Cold War slowly coming out of hibernation, I hope these vaults have some warming provision to ensure that the conditions remain above freezing point for those seeds that would be susceptible to a nuclear winter should the worst come to the worst.
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bozzza at 22:21 PM on 23 May 2015Climate's changed before
Dear Roamernz,
Have you ever heard of joining issues? It means you are dealing with a complex system you are defeated by !! Luckily there are other people to take care of you!!!
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michael sweet at 21:34 PM on 23 May 2015Climate's changed before
RoamerNZ,
You have forgotten that as little as 5 years ago the deniers consistently said that it was not warming. It is only when warming became obvious to everyone that they have shifted their argument to "it has warmed before".
In addition to Tristans points, you need to consider that the currrent warming was predicted 120 years ago by Arhennius. How could this rapid warming be natural when it was predicted decades in advance? The globe was actually cooling when Arhennius predicted warming and correctly estimated the amount of warming we would get. Try to inform yourself about the data. When you do not know what the facts are it is easy to be confused.
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bozzza at 21:20 PM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Of course, yet what I am saying is business being business means shennanigans must played in order to secure the advantage of meaningful fact....I am referring to the rich maintaining their share and if they are entrepreneural it is shades of grey as to whether they deserve respect or not because let us face facts: market forces- however diluted by government interference- are charged with supplying goods and services to the largest of degrees....!!
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Tristan at 21:16 PM on 23 May 2015Climate's changed before
RoamerNZ, if, as you say, you are a layperson, why would you trust your own interpretation of the facts more than you'd trust the interpretations of those who spend their lives reading and performing climate science?
Why would you assume that your commentary contains insight that they haven't examined themselves?
When you say 'there is absolutely no way to prove this', are you informing climate scientists of something? Have you read, and understood, many paleoclimatology papers?
Why do you think we don't understand what causes the planet to warm and cool? It's not just a mysterious variable that wiggles up and down every so often. Climate has physical causes and physicial constraints. Our expectation that the world will keep warming is not because we look at the wiggle and say 'It's gonna keep wiggling up', it's because, physically speaking, it is actually impossible for the world to not keep warming, given current conditions. -
Roamernz at 18:30 PM on 23 May 2015Climate's changed before
there are many learned fellows on this site much more educated about this issue than a layman like me.. But there are some basic issues that I have an "issue" with (and let's face it unless laymen like me are convinced either way there won't be any action anywhere. It's great to see all the point scoring and technical data etc.. But (I am in the skeptical camp for now).. There are some irrefutable facts .. Things are heating up.. And.. It's happened many times before. There are also a lot of emotional stuff being thrown around.
Things have heated before.. scary camp say "yes but this time it's much faster" there is absolutely no way to prove this as we are only talking about less than a 200 years.. And many many times we can see shifts from hot to cold millions perhaps billions of years ago.. But no way we can prove the speed of that heating or cooling within only 100 years or so. Perhaps it is a rapid increase that then wane off .. A natural occurrence .. Can we really do something about it.. Unlikely.. Even if we could .. How? We can't stop the entire world from its day to day use in the next 10 years .. Let alone in the next 100.. So it is what it is. Between humans, volcanoes.. Farting sheep and cows, Position to the sun and how many plants grow at any given time on the planet.. It's probably fair to say whatever is about to happen .. Will happen anyway..
even IF.. Humans were totally responsible (which simply .. We aren't) there is no way.. No way at all .. ever.. You will be able to stop 8 billion people doing whatever they are doing.
so let's agree it's happening.. It's happened before slower or faster ..it will still happen .. Wether due to us or nature and universe or all of the above .. we can't stop it no matter what! Let's just ride it out the best we can.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - See the No.1 climate myth on Skeptical Science - Climate's changed before.
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dcpetterson at 16:24 PM on 23 May 2015The climate 'hiatus' doesn’t take the heat off global warming
I hope this is a good thread for this. If not, feel free to delete this comment, (I know that is a dumb thing to say, because moderators always have that freedom!)
I looked at the graphs from wattsupwiththat, and I realized, in order to keep the "pause" going, denialists have to keep changing the starting date of the faux pause.
In March of 2014, they said global warming stopped in Augist of 1996. By April of 2015, they said global warming stopped in December of 1996. They had to change the start date, because even in the cherry-picked dataset they use (RSS), the Earth keeps warming.
The whole "pause" idea is a fraud.
I wrote a blog post about what I saw. If someone with better math skills than I have would falsify it, that would be useful.
The blog post is here.
If my post is nonsense, I would not be offended to learn that.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:41 PM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
bozzza,
People who think outside of the norms of a society, people who see things from a novel perspective, are indeed the sparks of ingenuity. However, the people mentioned in the article, the likes of Christy and the ones who invite him to speak, are almost certain to be aware of the deliberate deceptions they create and disseminate.
These are not "outsiders" unaware of what the mainstream is aware of or thinking about explanations for all the observations/information available from a different perspective. These are people who are fully aware of vast amounts of information who deliberate focus on bits of information and deliberately try to create claims that will sound convincing to someone who is willing to be easily impressed, someone inclined to want to hear and believe the fantastical unbelievable tall tales they tell.
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rockytom at 12:42 PM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
I would like to know how much one of these congressional committee hearings cost the U.S. taxpayer considering all costs,i.e., salaries of congressmen, senators, and their staffs, witnesses salaries and expenses and the expenses for everyone and everything associated with these hearings. House republicans have voted to kill "Obamacare" over 60 times. Cost? Astronomical! These hearings that pay deniers to lie must stop. There are penalties for lying to congress and they should be inforced. The U.S. taxpayers have got to stop sending these idiots to Washington who call these witnesses.
BTW, the 97% of climate scientists who support anthropogenic global warming should be updated to 99.9%. One would be hard pressed to find 3% of climate scientists who do not support AGW. 0.1% maybe.
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SkepticalinCanada at 12:17 PM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
@7 &15. I believe that the people to whom you are referring actually better fit the checklist criteria for psychopathy - often compared to the DSM IV diagnostic criteria for Antisocial Personality Disorder, but many practitioners distinguish psychopathy separately. But, since we're into labels, despite his past and his credentials, I prefer to call Christy a "scientist" or simply a denier, as a truly skeptical scientist would not be uttering such antiscientific nonsense.
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bozzza at 11:53 AM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
As for sociopaths: I can't really argue towards their usefulness(who would want to) yet they do say the genius of the human species is in accepting the mentaly ill within society as(going back to de bonos lateral thinking definition of allowing yourself to be wrong) they still provide ideas of which we can all learn from. If the imagined elite and the proles make up 10% then the masses make up 90% and it is a spark from the masses on which we all depend, generally speaking.
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bozzza at 11:44 AM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Computer Hackers are the perfect analogy because it has long been argued they wear different coloured hats... I'm just doing an Ed De Bono and allowing myself to be wrong: sure it's immoral to lie but greed justifies many things and on that count I don't think it's stretching the bow all that far to suggest it as completely probable.
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nigelj at 10:38 AM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Bozzza @ 12. You argue the fraudulent sceptics force everyone to produce rigorous science. This is like arguing that computer hackers serve a good purpose, or that bank robbers serve a good purpose by forcing banks to have better security, so its not a great argument. Lying or being misleading just doesn't seem justified to me. What if both sides played the same silly game? As far as I can tell the IPCC are very upfront and play by the rules.
Sometimes I wonder if some of these sceptical characters are just sociopaths. Can you really argue such people serve a good purpose?
There is also is a big difference between sceptical characters like Lindzen who have some reasonable contribution and characters like Christopher Moncton who are pretty much dishonest, in my opinion. But it is loudmouths like Moncton who sometimes have an effect on politicians, sadly to say.
The main issue is science is complex and very intricate and a easy target for cheap or misleading scepticism. We cant allow the sceptics to get away with that. When politicians pay too much attention to the sceptics they are often listening to misleading fanatics with all sorts of weird agendas or personality issues. These people can't make it in the mainstream, so set up shop as resentful, opinionated people happy to be completely dishonest.
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villabolo at 04:38 AM on 23 May 2015Seeds of Time - preserving food resources in a hot future climate
Can the same be done to preserve animal cells?
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Firgoose at 04:35 AM on 23 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
It's interesting that, while the trends cannot match, the local features (peaks and troughs) of the temperature anomaly graph have rather a good eyeballed match with the PDO index for the period. The NH seems to be an especially good match. I wonder whether a "corrected" temperature anomaly graph would show anything of use.
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Tom Dayton at 01:17 AM on 23 May 2015Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
Science of Doom has a good series on weather versus climate, and related topics.
Moderator Response:[DB] TWFYSYWDI has recused themselves from further participation in this venue for a variety of multiple infractions of the Commenting Guidelines of this forum, not the least of which being in a line of sock puppet fake accounts (a serial-sock).
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bozzza at 01:06 AM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
... think about it this way: who says all these seeming fraudulent skeptics aren't just playing games to force the real science to get on with the job of providing certainty in the market place?
Moderator Response:[DB] Font format shifted from all-bold to normal.
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bozzza at 01:03 AM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
@2, It's just pause-button politics. The captains of todays industry know the paradigm is changing but to what exactly: details matter don't they? They all need to retool and get back to enjoying their superior market share positions that they enjoy today so it really is quite understandable.
Stagnation is close to death so that ensures change happens when two political forces oppose each other.
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bozzza at 00:52 AM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
@7, Politics is tribal: did you miss the youtube video where Mike Tyson is telling 50 cent not to go into boxing as a promoter because he had no idea how tribal it was and that the red and blue corner represented Democrats versus Republicans and it went back to when the Irish street gangs fought ,... I dunno,... yadda yadda ... and that instead of everyone getting hurt it was your man against theirs sort of thing but, yeh, it was pretty funny!??!
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bozzza at 00:47 AM on 23 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Consumer Power: the Governator called it when he said Governments don't lead i.e. DIVESTMENT!!
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MA Rodger at 23:50 PM on 22 May 2015Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
I'm sure that repeating a comment word-for-word, even one that has been zapped by the moderators; that is still contravenes the SkS Comments Policy in that "Comments should avoid excessive repetition." The humour content aside, and the efforts of this deluded troll are droll, I think the chicken entrails have spoken @115.
Moderator Response:[TD] Quite correct. Excessive repetition is banned, because the comments are for discussion. Supporting discussion requires as well that the commenter actually read the original post and material that other commenters point them to, think about those, and respond to them in specifics. It is telling that This Will Frighten You so You Will Delete It has never mentioned "boundary conditions." Obviously he or she has not read the Intermediate tabbed pane of this post. Nor has he or she bothered to use the Search field at the top left of the page to search for "weather," else he or she would have found (and of course truly read) The Difference Between Weather and Climate. There is even a video about Weather Vs Climate that he or she would have seen this week if taking the (free!) Denial 101x course.
There are even easy analogies in several comments by various people on several threads, such as why it is possible to predict accurately how high the tide line will be on a beach (climate), despite the difficulty of predicting precisely how high on the beach an individual wave will come in exactly 10 minutes 51 seconds from now (weather more than 5 days from now), compared to the relative ease of predicting how high up the beach will come this wave that already is racing up the beach (weather within 5 days from now). TWFYSYWD could have read those, asked for clarification, or even challenged those analogies, all of which would have been fine.
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BBHY at 22:35 PM on 22 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Climate hawks need to either find a way to make progress on this issue dispite the politics, or find a way to alter the politics. Otherwise progress is going to continue to be blocked by the politics.
Nothing is certain, but history gives us a strong prediction that the next president will be an "R" type.
Looking back over the past 150 years, there were only two instances when two Dems were elected consecutively. Truman followed FDR, but Truman was able to run as an incumbent due to FDR dying in office. Johnson followed JFK but again he ran as an incumbent for the same reason.
Otherwise, the history of presidents alternates R-D-R-D-R-D. George HW Bush broke the pattern for the Repubs when he followed Reagan. Gore nearly broke the pattern, even won the popular vote, but W still became the next president.
So, if 150 years of history continues to guide the future, then we will need to figure out how to make climate progress with an R-type president after 2016.
The other alternative is get enough people involved in climate action to break the long established pattern.
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chriskoz at 21:20 PM on 22 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
Art@8,Perhaps.The primary fingerprint of ozone in in the stratosphere.
The stratospheric cooling trend as presented by Figure 4 of (Sherwood 2015), that I reproduced above, is only -0.55 K/decade at 50 hPa : ~ twice smaller than reported before. Note sudden reversal of cooling trend from mid-90s until today in tropics and NH - stratosphere started warming there despite steadily increasing CO2. How much of that signal can be attributted to ozone depletion and then its subsequent recovery following Montreal - on top of the obvious cooling from CO2 - is hard to say. Certainly the radiosonde data at 50hPa doesw not seem to be precise enough to allow any conclusions.
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MA Rodger at 19:26 PM on 22 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
Tom Curtis @3.
The data relevant to the comment of This-Will-Frighten-You-so-You-Will-Deny-It @2&4, the places "where people actually live" - this is surely the land component of HadCRUT4 = CRUTEM4. On that count, the relevant average temperature rise is somewhat higher than the HadCRUT4 average and since the 1960s, well over twice the value of the increase denied @2.
Of course, the temperature increase that mainly drives the 'hotspot' is the one increasing ocean evaporation. The relevant HadSST3 data set shows not much more that 0.3ºC tropical warming over that period.
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uncletimrob at 17:54 PM on 22 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Some of these people are frankly sociopathic. They are so focussed on their agenda that rational thought and considering alternatives is completely foreign. I've worked with several people like this and every time I've just given up arguing with them - it's not worth the angst because they KNOW they are right, and nothing that I or anyone else can do will change that because they ARE right. Yeah right!
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Chris Snow at 17:42 PM on 22 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
It would be good if the Democrats and Republicans had to select three new expert witnesses each time. After a short while, the Republicans would run out of experts to ask.
Here in the UK, there are so few potential sceptic expert witnesses that when in January 2014, the House of Commons select committee on energy and climate change met to discuss the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in a similar format, the sceptic side had to jet in two of its witnesses, Richard Lindzen and Donna Laframboise from the US and Canada respectively. The other witness was Nic Lewis.
So in the UK at least, I'd say that the 97% figure for the consensus is, if anything, a low end estimate. I'm struggling to think of a single UK-based climate scientist who disputes the basis consensus. Even Nic Lewis's estimates for climate sensitivity are within the range of the IPCC's, albeit at the lower end.
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shoyemore at 17:28 PM on 22 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Next year is a Presidential election year in the US, and the election of a Republican President would open many doors for scientists who have conservative leanings.
There are also high-profile jobs as science advisers and officials in the Administration.
Positioning oneself as a working scientist who can speak authoritatively on matters improtant to the political bosses would be no drawback to your career. Of course, that is exactly what deniers accuse the majority of climate scientists of doing.
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Art Vandelay at 15:17 PM on 22 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
Perhaps it's showing a fingerprint of Antarctic ozone depletion, which at mid alitudes results in LT warming.
Ozone recovery is also expected to partly offset warming until mid-century.
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chriskoz at 14:15 PM on 22 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
[PS]@4,
By "cooling phenomenon" This@4 likely meant slower warming of SH as seen on the blue line of Fig2. His description of Fig.2 is certainly misleading - careful visual examination, as well as proper statistical analysis, reveal statistically signifficant warming rather than "cooling". I haven't found a specific thread directly addressing that issue. But the footnote to the stab The southern hemisphere hasn't warmed as much clearly explains it.
Moderator Response:[PS] Pretty sure he means mid-century period of cooling in NH. (not seen in SH as not so affected by aerosols.
Anyway, TWFYSYWDI comprehension of comments policy is as bad as his comprehension of science if that is possible so I doubt he/she will be with us much longer.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:07 PM on 22 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Rob,
Though "making them important (and the money that allows them to gather to support their activity)" may be part of their motivation, I believe a more significant consideration is that they, like too many others, do not care what 'history' or 'legacy' they leave.
They are almost certainly doing what they are doing out of self-interest. They probably do not even care if during their lifetime their deliberate actions get exposed as unacceptable behaviour there was no doubt they knew was unacceptable. And they are very unlikely to care what people think after they are done with their time in this existence.
The success of people with that type of attitude is a seious problem, and always has been. It is very difficult, but not impossible, to change the attitude and mind of someone who has chosen that course of action in their life. The continued efforts to improve the understanding of what is going on is ultimately the best way to win over those type of people.
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chriskoz at 13:46 PM on 22 May 2015Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
This@4,
...NH graph has a different y-scale than the SH (an extremely poor and generally misleading graphing practice) so I misread it
(my emphasis)
The differences in scales on Fig.2 have to do with the bandwidth of data - i.e. data variability in SH case was smaller than in other cases, hence tha scaling of y-coord became smaller. Adjusting the y-scale to fit the data is a standard practice in most graphic software packages, so likely the software package used to generate Fig.2 did it automaticaly. You may want to opine that such standard is "extremely poor" and "misleading" but most of graphic artists and software engineers (including myself) do not take your opinion seriously.
This post is about te hot spot in troposphere. You want to derail the discussion to other topics (e.g. your baseless claim that CO2 increase is tied to hemispheric location, whereas in fact CO2 is well mixed gas), but I won't respond to those unrelated distractions. If you want to have serious discussion, find the appropriate thread for it or if you cannot find one, follow mod's suggestion.
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Art Vandelay at 13:39 PM on 22 May 2015Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Tom Curtis@52
Thanks for that detailed explanation, and particularly the explanation of accounting methods employed. It all makes much more sense to me now.
My Geologist friend had a slightly different take on it, and not unexpectedly employed a different accounting method. Although he deemed the assertion that "human breathing causes atmospheric CO2" to be largely spurious, he also added that it's more relevant to examine changes to the biomass itself, and specifically the ratio of photosynthetic to non-photosynthetic biomass due to human population over a given timeframe. He thought that human activities such as deforestation through logging and burning were likely to be more influential on changes to atmospheric CO2 than human respiration itself - leaving aside the impacts of fossil fuel burning.
Endeavouring to research further for myself, I found a paper that calculated atmospheric CO2 from human activities alone to represent 25% of total emissions; mostly the result of biomass depletion through deforestation, which depletes the photosynthetic pool. This highlights the fact that population itself will be a hindrance to efforts to remove excess carbon from the atmosphere in the coming decades, regardless of the emission scenario we eventually achieve, and future radical geo-engineering solutions are perhaps not out of the question.
As an aside, CO2 from human respiration can be estimated with simple math, and works out to account for about 9% of global emissions – which admittedly looks like a big number in isolation.
Which brings us back to the original skeptic’s assertion that “breathing causes CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere”.
Rather than dismiss it as a myth, I regard it as an interesting claim that’s worthy of some examination, even if irrelevant in the discussion of (CAGW) climate change.
Personally, if I was going to take a skeptic ’s position, I would assert that the current human population, and associated activities required to sustain it, will add CO2 to the atmosphere, with or without fossil fuel combustion.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:38 PM on 22 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
Think how important his position makes him. How many second rate scientistists get trotted out repeatedly to testify before Congress? If Christy were to accept the overwhelming body of scientific research, then he's just one tiny researcher in a sea of hard working scientists. As far as I can see, his contrarian position is the only thing that makes him important.
Same works for people like Watts. He has to maintain his position regardless of evidence to the contrary, because that's all that makes him important.
What an awful position to be in. All the nickle and dime deniers will eventually disappear in their anonymity. People like Christy are writing themselves into history, and ultimately history is not going to look back kindly.
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nigelj at 13:00 PM on 22 May 2015Congress manufactures doubt and denial in climate change hearing
The article makes plenty of sense to me, so why do people like Christie go on making these misleading arguments? They are not reasoned scepticism, which we need, they are pretty dishonest.
Perhaps he is an attention seeker, or has some grudge against the climate community, yet these people are in effect sabotaging the debate and putting the entire planet at risk. It's simply preposterous.
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