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Comments 3101 to 3150:
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Bob Loblaw at 11:51 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @ 36:
You have placed a statement in quotes that has not been stated by anyone here other than yourself. You made it in comment #20. OPOF quoted you in comment #23 (and explained how he thought it was a misrepresentation of what he said). You have twice attributed this "quote" to Rob, who has said no such thing.
Please make an effort to actually read what people are saying, and respond to them properly. If you are going to be this sloppy about referencing what others have said to you, any discussion is going to be very difficult.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:31 AM on 24 December 2022Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Bobhisey @441:
In addition to explaining the graphic that Eclectic has pointed you to in comment 442, you may wish to read the "CO2 is saturated" thread, where much more information is available. Your argument about transmissivity falls into that category.
And - like so many climate science "critics" that have made this argument - it looks like your "transmissivity" position (as presented here) completely fails to account for the simple fact that CO2 that absorbs radiation in the 14-16um range will also emit radiation in the 14-16um range. What is seen from space (in any wavelength) is the total of what is emitted from the surface and transmitted through the atmosphere (however small that may be) plus what is emitted at every other height in the atmosphere (including the stratosphere) and transmitted.
All radiation of any specific wavelength is the same. You can't tell where a 14um photon was emitted, or at what temperature the emitting object was. It could have been emitted near the surface at near 288K, or it might have been emitted in the stratosphere at a much colder temperature - and with a much shorter path length (and smaller probability of being absorbed) to space.
Satellite measurements see it all. To assess where ti comes from, you need to do some detailed modelling. Modelling that shows that adding CO2 does have an effect.
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peppers at 10:39 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Jnigel,
Getting caught up in Christmas and a 3 year old. Sorry and Ill be back! Ill be back and you and I agree on much. We will probably continue to not agree on the original premise we started with from Rob. People who do not agree with his self need to be: "Opposing views of anyone, anyone else are harmful misunderstandings, and the person needs to be inculcated and re-oriented to be less harmful/more helpful." Supercilious folly. Thx Nigelj, D
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Eclectic at 09:52 AM on 24 December 2022Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Bobhisey @441 , you really need to explain your statement:
"zero energy escapes the earth in the 16-14 micron wavelength range"
~ is this a massive typographical error by you?
Please look at the graph in post #430 [above] which shows the satellite-measured radiation leaving the Earth i.e. "escaping the earth". Clearly, the energy escaping the planet at 16-14 micron range is (roughly) half the intensity at 12 or 18 microns for example. Enormously higher than "zero".
Or were you meaning to convey something entirely different? But what?
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bobhisey at 08:13 AM on 24 December 2022Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
The best data on atmospheric transmissivity of Infra-red earth radiation is the data obtained by NASA in 1991. Unfortunately, this data was buried in an Appendix to an obscure paper and not available to the Scientific community. I found it, and published it on Amazon as "Infra-red Transmissivity of the Atmosphere--NASA Satallite report". It is in the public domain, and now can be found by search engines.
Inter alia, it shows that zero energy escapes the earth in the 16-14 micron wavelength range, the range where CO2 is effective. Showing that more CO2 can not cause global warming.
Thus, we must divert the money being wasted on the now disproven assumption to discovering what is actually causing global warming.
Further analysis of this is in my little book "Carbon Dioxide-Not Guilty". Confession, I make 6c a copy on kindle because they won't let me price below 99 cents! For free, email me at bobhisey@comcast.net and I will send you a pdf copy which you can use as you will, because I put it in the public domain.
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nigelj at 06:34 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Eddie Evans @32, woke people dont want to want to "ban" bigots, racists, mysogonists, and ignorant people from society. Woke people just condemn their beliefs, and wish they would engage their brains, rather than being slaves to their emotions.
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nigelj at 06:22 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @28
I quoted a few examples of physical harm. I didn't say they were the only forms of harm. I was trying to establish what if anything you believed in in terms of harm and consequences. I asked you whether you agreed with having consequences for those examples of physical harm. You still havent answered that question.
I have answered as many of your questions as possible, but you dont answer any of mine (or other peoples questions). You make yourself look evasive and like a troll and a hypocrite if you dont answer peoples questions explicitly. All it takes is a simple yes or no.
Why is it wrong to spread that definition of physical harm across general thought? You didnt really give a good reason. Did you not read Eclectics comment? Its all shades of grey. There are all sorts of harm including physical harm, socio-economic harm and deprivation, and mental harm, etcetera. They are all harmful. You cannot say they are not harmful just because they sit inside one category.
Its always going to be a case of what is the appropriate response in a specific situation. For example in my view we should not lock people up for personal abuse (like name calling), insults, racism, or internet bullying (threatening comments and relentlss abuse), but we can ban those people from internet forums (after a few warnings). This is what plenty of websites do these days. I will try one last time. Do you agree with doing that or not?
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EddieEvans at 05:51 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Sorry, I meant to post under another, but related post.
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EddieEvans at 05:30 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
In his essay, "Memes and the Exploitation of Imagination," Daniel C. Dennett argues that memes (smallest elements that replicate themselves') act like DNA.
"In the struggle for attention, the best ideas win, according to the principle of the survival of the fittest, which ruthlessly winnows out the banal, the unimaginative, the false.""I think that a new kind of replicator has emerged on this very planet. It is staring us in the face. It is still in its infancy, still drifting clumsily about in its primeval soup, but already it is achieving evolutionary change at a rate which leaves the old gene panting far behind."
These are "complex ideas that form themselves into distinct memorial units" like "arch," "wheel," wearing clothes." Philosophy after Darwin, Michael Russ(It's a stretch, I know, but fun.)
From Wikipedia"In 2018, the British political commentator Andrew Sullivan described the "Great Awokening", describing it as a "cult of social justice on the left, a religion whose followers show the same zeal as any born-again Evangelical [Christian]" and who "punish heresy by banishing sinners from society or coercing them to public demonstrations of same."
Replicate Mastodon, replicate as a meme, like "born again."
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MA Rodger at 04:11 AM on 24 December 2022Record snowfall disproves global warming
On this David Viner quote from 2000 discussed @8,9&10, I think it's fair to say it applies to Southern England and is saying snow (perhaps lying snow rather tha snowfall) will be a lot rarer in coming years.
The Met Office does produce UK maps of both 'snow days' and 'snow lying days' for 30-year periods. These show decline in both with the more dramatic decline in 'snow days' although the most recent version of these maps (1991-2020) are yet to be published. (See maps in Fig 1 in this CEH 'Snow in Britain: the historical picture and future projections' document from 2016).
Of course, all these maps are saying is that the 1990s were less snowy than the 1960s and the 2000s less snowy than the 1970s.There is a better reckoning showing to winter 2012/3 in this 2013 Reading Uni blog which shows graphs of the annual number of 'snow lying days' at Reading since 1948/9. This shows the decline in snowiness up 2008 was reversed in the following years.
Another less-exacting attempt to show the level of UK snow is graphed out by decade below, based on this record here. Taking the method up-to-date puts the latest ten-years (2011/12-to 2020/21) at 22, so the snowiness is again showing decline, although a couple of 'very snowy' years would soon boost that up again.
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Bob Loblaw at 02:15 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Eddie @ 30: yes, that use of "woke movement" by Peppers is rather bizarre. The only other use of "woke" on this page is when OPOF used the term in comment 14:
And, if they get publicly directly challenged regarding their presentation of a harmful misunderstanding (by a predatory news investigator) they will follow the play-book of being more misleading and claiming that they are being 'attacked by woke people (with the understanding that 'their fans' misunderstand being Woke to be a Bad Thing).
It seems obvious that Peppers has an emotional viewpoint of "woke", and the context in which he uses "woke movement" seemingly falls under OPOF's "...publicly directly challenged ... follow the playbook... attacked by woke people ... Woke to be a Bad Thing" clause.
For someone who is arguing some sort of "Free Speech" position, Peppers sure seems to like dismissing other opinions by labelling them.
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EddieEvans at 00:54 AM on 24 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
I just happened to zip by this comment, and it seems to have lost its value in the mix of culture wars. "Feeling is not knowing, which is the woke movement in a nutshell,"
"Woke" is a type of awareness I thought, not a program. It is not a scientific term for sure, but wasn't Hume ushered in Kant's "woke" moment?
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Eclectic at 23:51 PM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers, it seems the essence of your line of argument is a sort of nihilism ~ that one cannot really distinguish the gradations between black & white, or between good & evil . . . and therefore there is no distinction of these polarities (and that likewise we should not attempt the distinction).
Peppers, that sort of argument is an obfuscation or sophistry. It is used (as you are using it) as a motivated reasoning intended to hide from yourself your own emotional drive to avoid acknowledging the bleeding obvious. And the bleeding obvious is that we live in a world of grays ~ and that most of the time we can do a fair job of managing these realities . . . simply by using common sense.
As Ben F. or Abe L. might well say :- Nonsense, young man. You are avoiding your responsibility - your responsibility to act sensibly in this world. Examine yourself, to understand your inner desires for such a dereliction of duty. Overcome those unworthy emotions, Sir !
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peppers at 21:39 PM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Eclectic
I am a student of Ben Franklin! Thanks for your inputs.
Where along this spectrum of of determining ideas from others should be categorized as dangerous, would you place your marker? Without subjugating others right to revolutionary ideas they may have. Nor interferring with UCBerkeley,"In science, ideas can never be completely proved or completely disproved. Instead, science accepts or rejects ideas based on supporting and refuting evidence, and may revise those conclusions if warranted by new evidence or perspectives,", which will need a constant flow of new ideas, both good and bad, to continue our mission of knowledge?
NIgelj
is on the way of defining his interpetation of dangerous; lisiting thieves, murderers and enviromental polluters as dangerous. I departmentalized death threats in the same way, as physical act. But it is wrong to then spread that definition across areas that involves general thought much less to others beyond your family, church, culture or need levels. Because you don't know.
Feeling is not knowing, which is the woke movement in a nutshell, the polar opposite of an academic dicipline such as science. Separating physical acts from thoughts and perspective would allow a thought pool. What do you think?
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Eclectic at 20:19 PM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @25 and prior : with your permission I will add a comment on your statements.
You have allowed your thinking to become muddled, and you are not looking clearly at the reality of the situation. (But why is that the case?)
For example : you are making the logical error of using binary thinking in regard to "death threats". Sorry, Peppers, but death threats are not a separate category, but are toward one end of a spectrum - a continuum - of antisocial thoughts/actions.
And individuals (at various times) can slide back & forth along that spectrum. And they can by their speech influence other individuals, pushing those ones further along the spectrum. In other words, a multiplier effect occurs (the madness of crowds is an example - but there are many other examples).
Peppers, it is disappointing that you are not very aware of such tendencies of human nature. The lessons of history, and your own personal observations of life experience, should have educated yourself about it all.
Rather than taking a doctrinaire/dogmatic view against censorship, it would be better if you simply applied common sense to the issue. And there, a possible short-cut is to ask yourself :- "What view would Ben Franklin or Abe Lincoln or other wise/ heroic/ saintly (etc) historical person take, in the modern hi-tech situation?"
The second question to ask yourself is :- What deep emotional influences are causing my (Peppers) extraordinary amount of motivated reasoning in arguing for a position so opposed to common sense.
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nigelj at 15:52 PM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @25
At no point have I promoted censorship of information. In fact @15 I indicated I oppose censorship of information and opinion other than 1)the usual time and place restrictions, and 2) website moderation rules forbidding personal abuse, off topic and spamming 3) racism and inciting violence. Defamation law also has its place. Do you oppose any of those sorts of limits?
To briefly answer your other questions. Disinformation is deliberately spreading false information. Misinformation is spreading false information. These are standard dictionary definitions. False information is determined by a consensus view of experts and sometimes by the courts. They are always open to challenge but until the consensus changes false information is false information.
I will label peoples views harmful If I deem them to be harmful. I assume you agree that theives, murderes and environmental polluters to be harmful? I also consider covid deniers to be harmful. Its normal for humans to make judgements about harm, and sometimes require penalties to discourage harmful activities (like theft) or to compensate people, because its part of how we survive and prosper. Sometimes we make the wrong judgements, but making no judgements will get us all killed.
Of course its needs to be genuine and significant harm based on evidence and responses need to be proportionate to the type of harm. Taking some level of risk in life is also healthy. So its a nuanced issue. IMHO.
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peppers at 13:26 PM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Hi Nigel, What determines this disinformation? Is it what you say it is, or your group? That is censoring. That would be hubristic to determine you alone are right, or higher right. Let people speak. What is harmful to others? Is your censoring harmful to the freedom of others? Is something someone says you do not like or agree with, now recategorized as harmful, allowing you to censor and silence them in your estimation. Is that your process? That would be very wrong. Let people speak. It is the opposite of hubris to know, without losing your stance, what are the motivations, meanings, precedence, progeny, needs, desires and fears of other viewpoints, which can strengthen your own original stance. Or allow you to benefit from it if impressed. Or you will also watch it whither on itself if wrong. But let everyone speak. My grandmother said to give everyone a clean sheet of paper, and let them mark it up themselves. Dont label me (or someone) as 'harmful', simply in your limited view ( lacking other input), and assail my rights to influence my world too. All should speak. Nor is this the function of government or leaders, to influence freedom of speech in any way. BTW, death threats are another category. But absent that phenom, it is too dangerous to call anything else 'dangerous' to eliminate other rights of speech and assembly.
I am referring to within the zone of your own comments about the spirit of free speech. Not within science processes.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:21 AM on 23 December 2022Record snowfall disproves global warming
Joe T @8,
I share your interest and curiosity regarding those quotes by David Viner in 2000.
My admittedly amateur search on the Internet of Knowledge (and a massive amount of nonsense), found the earliest mentions to be in 2010 by climate denying people presenting their 'interpretations (potentially misunderstandings) of the quotes'.
It does not appear that any of them asked for clarification from the person they quote. That, along with the 10 year delay in making claims about the quotes, is a Red Flag to me. There appears to be no mention of David Viner's updated thoughts on the matter (I have read about the many incorrect statements made by Einstein that he later corrected).
The response by Tamino dated March 5, 2011 (here) appears to be a sensible evaluation of the merits of claiming that Viner's comments in 2000 are proof that climate scientists make incorrect statements. In this case the evidence appears to indicate that Viner was correct to say what he said in 2000. Mind you, if he had made an incorrect statement he later corrected it would also be incorrect to bring up the previous incorrect statement as evidence that 'in general' climate scientists 'are incorrect'.
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MA Rodger at 08:07 AM on 23 December 2022Record snowfall disproves global warming
JoeT @8,
Most internet references to the Viner comment appear to cite an article in the Independent of 20/3/00 but the links to this article yield "page not found". But for the curious, a PDF of the article has been preserved by the denialists on the rogue planetoid Wattsupia. Note the later Viner quotes in the artiucle.
"Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said."
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JoeT at 06:29 AM on 23 December 2022Record snowfall disproves global warming
It is commonplace that when winter arrives and heavy snowfall occurs that someone, somewhere will trot out the alleged quote in 2000 from David Viner, formerly of the University of East Anglia that 'within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".' Supposedly he also said, 'Children just aren't going to know what snow is'.
I searched this site and was unable to verify whether the quote is accurate. Specifically, whether he actually said 'in a few years' back in 2000. I couldn't find anything from Viner himself as to whether he was quoted accurately. It's not that this quote has any relevance to climate science in general — we all make comments that we wish we hadn't made. But I did want to know whether the quote is accurate for that moment when someone will bring it up in the local press. Thanks in advance!
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nigelj at 06:17 AM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @20
OPOF: "The serious problem is people who believe they are Right to persist in believing and sharing harmful misunderstandings rather than responsibly considerately learning and self-governing to be less harmful and more helpful 'To Others'."
Peppers: "Such a statement is the very basis of hubris thinking. having it all figured out just yourself and all others should comply, might be the main problem of the world."
Nigelj: "I disagree entirely. There is no hubris. The first part of the "statement" is about being honest and not deliberately spreading misinformation. This is just simple basically accepted ethics.
The second part of the statement is about minimising harm to others. The origins are in the work of philosophers like John Stuart Mill: "The harm principle says people should be free to act however they wish unless their actions cause harm to somebody else. The principle is a central tenet of the political philosophy known as liberalism and was first proposed by English philosopher John Stuart Mill."
This is the basis of modern government. Most of the laws and regulations governments pass are about harm minimisation. So nothing to do with hubris. The alternative is total anarchy and the law of the jungle.The only real question is about defining harm and whether someone is harming someone else, and whether the other person has given permission (tacitly given with some sports) how much it can be practically minimised and so forth. This is an ongoing issue of political debate, and political compromise, but life was never meant to be easy.
Finally being helpful to others is just simple basic ethics and human decency that we all consider and impliment in our daily lives. You help your family dont you? Are you seriously contesting the general principle that we should be helpful?
And how is it all hubris? Mystifies me. Whether being helpful is appropriate comes down to the specific situation. Society has guidelines and accepted norms that do not look like hubris to me, and its generally up to the individual to decide whether they are helpful. The law does not force people to be helpful with some occupation specific exceptions. So your comments just dont make much sense to me.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:25 AM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @20,
As the author of the quote you refer to in my comment @17, I offer the following in the hope that it is helpful.
The comment is made in the context of what Ta-Nehisi Coates says in the video that Rob Honeycutt linked to in their comment @16. (btw, did you watch the video?)
State that the comment I made is that "Opposing views of anyone, anyone else are harmful misunderstandings, and the person needs to be inculcated and re-oriented to be less harmful/more helpful." is a misunderstanding, and potentially a harmful one.
A length presentation on ethics and civilization could be offered. But I will limit my response to be related to climate science.
Climate science has robustly established the understanding that harmful climate change impacts are being produced by many developed human pursuits of benefit, primarily, but not exclusively, the burning of fossil fuels. In spite of that robust, and continuing to improve, understanding there are some people who still want to benefit more by resisting that learning. They want to maximize their ability to benefit by being more harmful and less helpful to Others. Those pursuers of benefit need to argue for the Freedom to benefit from understandably harmful misunderstandings that excuse understandably harmful actions. And every Myth that is debunked on this site is an a 'harmful misunderstanding' (all the items presented under the Arguments tab, not just the ones highlighted in the Most Used Climate Myths presentation on the upper left of the SkS pages).
That understanding has general application beyond the specific case of climate science. It can be understood to be based on many other cases of human development of harmful misunderstandings to excuse desired (potentially popular and profitable) harmful actions.
A general understanding is that there is no viable future for any group that allows any of its members to pursue benefit through the misleading advertising of harmful misunderstandings to prolong or increase their ability to benefit from understandably harmful actions. Groups that do not responsibly learn and self-govern, including helping their members learn to limit the harm or risk of harm done are harmful to themselves and Others.
That is the fundamental understanding of important groups like Professional Engineering groups. It also applies to medical groups and any other group that wants to maintain their status as helpful harm limiting organizations within a larger society.
The people who want to benefit from harmful misunderstanding have to try to argue against that fairly common sense understanding, often demanding the freedom to 'believe what they want and do as they please'. Their misleading advertising of harmful misunderstandings may be popular (and profitable), but understandably makes little sense when it is seriously thought about.
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Rob Honeycutt at 00:38 AM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @20... I haven't the slightest clue what you're referencing in this comment.
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Rob Honeycutt at 00:35 AM on 23 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Peppers @19... Are you trying to suggest I am required to allow people to say anything they like in my own home?
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peppers at 23:03 PM on 22 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Rob,
I just happened across this and it will likely be the most remarkable thing I see today. Opposing views of anyone, anyone else are harmful misunderstandings, and the person needs to be inculcated and re-oriented to be less harmful/more helpful.
"The serious problem is people who believe they are Right to persist in believing and sharing harmful misunderstandings rather than responsibly considerately learning and self-governing to be less harmful and more helpful 'To Others'."
Such a statement is the very basis of hubris thinking. having it all figured out just yourself and all others should comply, might be the main problem of the world. Mark Twain, "The main problem of the world, the number one unsolvable thing is that there is just one true religion. Several of em".
To make yourself the only truth sayer and everyone else wrong and dangerous is the very beginning of the worlds lack of peace. I apologies in advance for any alternate opinion.
And such a comment is that the comment itself becomes the first evidence to the falibility of the speaker actually knowing it all, as proposed.
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peppers at 22:17 PM on 22 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Rob Honeycutt, free speech is in the category of free culture and religion, etc. You may be christian but some worship muslim, judaism, et al. You cannot decide yours is only it and call all others as toxic. For speech, you also seem to reference free speech in only one category, death threat, and apply that backwards up the rope. Free speech includes hate speech becuse you cannot say just your viewpoint counts. America allowed the Nazi party to continue through the 50's here, based on freedom rights to religion, to assemble, freedom of points of view. ( do we assemble online now?). I think sad and dangerous viewpoints have their own reward anbd you do not need to operate using the tactics and pronouns so that you can homogenize america to just your viewpoint. We already agree that the content of the hate speech is wrong, even dispicable. You end up commiting a greater unamerican behavior to toss out pronouns and censor others, than the failure destined opinions they may state which will sink them on their own when left to the public.
Moderator Response:[BL] Yet you seem to insist that your definition of "free speech" is the only one that is acceptable. And that "the American way" is the only acceptable international standard of conduct.
A reminder: this is not a government-run we site, and this site does have a Comments Policy that all participants must adhere to.
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peppers at 22:02 PM on 22 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
BaerbelW, moving to another specific named platform, as an alternative to Twitter is referenced 5-6 times in the article.
Moderator Response:[BL] If t his is in reference to comment #9, asking why you think that the article is an advertisement, you are failing to make a convincing argument.
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peppers at 21:53 PM on 22 December 20221.5 Degree Climate Target: Dead or Alive?!
I saw that 'article'. Content aside, it was an ad for a twitter alternative. I posted as such. Was that removed? Actions like that define the quality and depth of the site, and such response would be most unfortunate.
Moderator Response:[BL] "that article" refers to what? Have you posted this in the wrong thread? None of your comments here have been remove - yet.
This comment appears to be mostly a complaint about moderation policies. Such complaints are a violation of the Comments Policy. Please read the policy and abide by it.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:28 AM on 21 December 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
Thank you for curating another excellent set of recent news items.
The Story of the Week is very informative. And it contains a gem: the indication that in 1990 there was a rational evidence-based presentation indicating that warming above 1.0 C would be entering unsafe, increasingly risky and harder to predict climate territory.
What is not presented, but is clear from the evidence, is that the SSP studied pathways were constrained to 'not harm economic perceptions that have developed and not restrict the development of increased perceptions of prosperity'. That constraint of understanding was/is part of the systemic problem that needs to be corrected.
Said another way a sustainable effective solution to the problem will require 'the thinking and investigation, the science, to be unrestricted'. There should be no protection for harmful developed economic interests. even if opening up that line of thinking would more significantly annoy some already annoyed powerful wealthy people. That harmful 'protection of economic perceptions' can also be seen to have harmfully compromised the interactions at the Diversity COP15.
The 'more common sense awareness and understanding regarding climate impacts' should be that by 1990 a substantial amount of developed perceptions of economic prosperity and status were built and based on harmful unsustainable activity. It was harmful at that time to deny the need to reduce the amount of harmful developed activity. It was harmful to hope that continued, and growing, harmful economic activity only being displaced by 'cheaper and more popular' technological developments would 'achieve the required limit of harm to future generations'. The situation is worse today, and continues to be made worse, because of excusing already more than adequately wealthy people who continue pursuing more personal benefit from understandably harmful activity.
That common sense understanding is still far from being a common enough understanding to effectively govern and correct the harmful over-development. In spite of all the evidence of that common sense understanding regarding the systemic problems developed by 'popularity and profitability being the measures of what is desirable and acceptable', many people continue to be free to act on harmful misunderstandings. And they are fighting harder to resist learning that important lesson from recent history, a lesson that has tragically been able to be learned repeatedly throughout history.
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EddieEvans at 00:04 AM on 21 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
It's not a big risk for Carlson; he probably has other beachfront homes and more. He probably believes the new climate change is for real, but he's ethically challenged. He makes money fighting climate science.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:46 AM on 19 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Rob Honeycutt @16,
Excellent reference video. Indeed, everyone should watch it.
I would add an important word to clarify that it explains that "... we should all limit our speech, as a normal course of social interaction, all the time."
The serious problem is people who believe they are Right to persist in believing and sharing harmful misunderstandings rather than responsibly considerately learning and self-governing to be less harmful and more helpful 'To Others'.
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MNESTHEUS at 07:54 AM on 19 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
" people in the US are moving from areas facing one type of climate risk and straight into other affected regions, only with different specific risks. In... Flocking to fire.... Clark, Nkonya & Galford examine these accidental choices and offer advice to policymakers."
The most conspicuous example may the Fox News anchors who winter on Florida
https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2022/09/pride-goeth-before-squall.html
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GP Alldredge at 22:32 PM on 18 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2022
Oops, a fat finger effect; Should be ".. not a former subscriber of GRl."
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GP Alldredge at 22:29 PM on 18 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2022
Don't be sad about Eric Rignot et al. "Changes in Antarctic ice sheet motion derived from satellite radar interferometry between 1995 and 2022" in GRL.
It is already Open Access. In fact I recall seeing a email notice from AGU that GRL will be OA in future. (I seem to recall it was to start OA 1 Jan 2023, but when I followed the doi to the article webpage it was already OA. I'm member of AGU, but not a former subscriber of GEL.)
--An interestng, but not comforting, read!
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Doug Bostrom at 17:30 PM on 18 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
Peppers: "Is this serious?"
Peppers, every week we include a huge clue to the answer for that question. It's the author count for the given week's edition of New Research. This week it's 1,261. Last week it was 1,011. The week before that, 848. Prior, 904. Then 1,320. Keep going back. It adds up.
"Argument by authority?" No, these numbers help to quantify something called "consilience." Here consilience is overwhelmingly powerful.
But perhaps this consilience is somehow wrong and you've twigged to an astoundingly remarkable realization, here in the unlikely locale of an obscure comments thread. Somehow all these thousands of experts in diverse fields in theoretical and observational consistency and agreement have been wrong all along, and you're the solo super genius who has penetrated the fog all by yourself, using simple principles found 'round the home. Granted that's as probable as if you'd spewed a loose deck of cards into the air in a strong wind and had it come back down neatly stacked and in order. But not strictly impossible. Or at least not according to the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
So do keep talking, if you don't mind sounding rather foolish in the face of very long odds.
[For the bystander worrying that Peppers is getting short shrift, on another thread here at Skeptical Science this same person can be found arguing that hate speech on the internet is a problem mostly for people who've invited it. Here and there, Peppers is either starkly uninformed but willing to assert ignorance as capable of forming conclusions, or having a bit of odd fun. Either way, this needs a sharp yank on the leash, a pointer to the virtue called humility.]
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EddieEvans at 03:04 AM on 18 December 2022DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Good. "“Nearly 40% of the total funds that the Heartland Institute has received from ExxonMobil since 1998 were specifically designated for climate change projects.”1 2"
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MA Rodger at 02:38 AM on 18 December 2022DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
EddieEvans @43,
The most recent activity by this particular bunch was back in 2013-17 when they wrote out a second edition of their 'Climate Change Reconsidered' which did no more than use a serious number of words (again) spouting the same old nonsense. There was also alongside a strange 100-page publication with the title 'Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming', strange in that it was simply setting out again their nonsensical reasons for why they disagree with the IPCC about Global Warming. It concluded with a quote from the past that so easily is a warning about the NSIPCC itself:-
Policymakers should resist pressure from lobby groups [to silence scientists] who question the authority of IPCC to claim to speak for “climate science.” The distinguished British biologist Conrad Waddington wrote in 1941,
"It is … important that scientists must be ready for their pet theories to turn out to be wrong. Science as a whole certainly cannot allow its judgment about facts to be distorted by ideas of what ought to be true, or what one may hope to be true" (Waddington, 1941).
This prescient statement merits careful examination by those who continue to assert [the fashionable belief], in the face of strong empirical evidence [to the contrary], that human CO2 emissions are {not} going to cause dangerous global warming.
There are of course "others like it" who do continue oressing their nonsense onto the world. On my neck of the woods, the GWPF continue to shovel their nonsense into the world although not as energetically as previously. It is presently under investigation by the UK Charity Commission (again), the last time keeping its charitable status (an 'educational charity' would you believe) by forming the Global Warming Policy Forum to spout all the lies and leave the Global Warming Policy Foundation as a squeaky-clean charity. (As if that was going to happen!!) The Forum, now re-branded 'Net Zero Watch' continues its nonsense-generating.
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BaerbelW at 02:25 AM on 18 December 2022DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
EddieEvans @43
You'll find lots of information about The Heartland Institute (HI) and other "think tanks" like them on the Desmog Website and their research database.
Here is the link to HI:
https://www.desmog.com/heartland-institute/
Hope this helps!
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EddieEvans at 02:11 AM on 18 December 2022DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Denial Gate on Youtube robot reading.
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EddieEvans at 00:52 AM on 18 December 2022DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Is there anything recent on this organization or others like it? Just wondering.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:48 PM on 17 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Ta-Nehisi Coates has a really good explanation of how we all limit our speech, as a normal course of social interaction, all the time. This is well worth the 5 mins it takes to watch the video.
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nigelj at 11:43 AM on 17 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
Free speech has generally recognised limits such as time and place restrictions, like some of Rob Honeycutt's examples. Only the fanatics think the limits are wrong, and I bet there are things they wouldn't tolerate in their own homes over the dinner table.
But we are really talking about information and opinions (sometimes hate filled) posted on websites, and whether there should be moderation of that.
I used to believe websites should delete the very worst misinformation, and ban the most serious offenders that spread misinformation (Like Trump) but now I'm just not sure. Twitter had literally thousands of people trying to moderate this sort of thing, and I wonder if its really feasible to keep that up. Banning opinions or information is also going against the spirit of free speech.
Of course there are things that can be done that dont go against the spirit of free speech like rules against spamming, requiring people to back up claims by reference to published science, and boreholes like at realclimate.org that silo the drivel while still allowing people to have a say. Maybe thats the best approach generally.
I loathe hate speech especially when it targets vulnerable people. But the problem is that hate speech is very difficult to define and could be widened out to include almost anything. Racist speech is relatively easy to define and is illegal in New Zealand, and I support that because it effectively incites violence. But I believe limits on free speech should be kept quite minimal.
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nigelj at 11:11 AM on 17 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
Peppers
"Humidity and clouds cannot be modeled, tracked or controlled, which will be vexing to all the white knights out there."
We do have an understanding of clouds. Latest research:
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/12/climate-change-clouds-equilibrium-sensitivity/
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:21 AM on 17 December 2022We’ll keep tweeting (for now) but have also started tooting.
The following NPR article "Maria Ressa's 'How to Stand Up to a Dictator' is a memoir and manifesto", is an example of the harmful results of a failure to effectively govern and limit the influence of harmful misunderstandings.
Advocates of 'more free speech' seem to conveniently ignore the harmful realities of their 'theoretical belief in the Ultimate Good of more freedom'. Another reality they ignore is that their argument would include leaving graffiti on publicly visible surfaces. I personally believe that graffiti, well done, can improve the vibrancy and inclusiveness of public spaces (or the otherwise boring passing of string of train cars). But harmful graffiti should be removed (and so should poor quality graffiti, even if it is not harmful).
Another reality that appears to be ignored by people who declare that harmful misunderstandings will natural fail to be influential are the many examples of success through the promotion of harmful misunderstandings. The following CBC News item "Indigenous-provincial relationship is a long road. Danielle Smith is making potholes" is an example of a 'Leader' who seems confident that her fans will believe her claim that her undeniable declaration of an understandably harmful misunderstanding 'may have been misunderstood by some people' who are now attacking her for saying something she now claims is not what she said - she claims to be the victim of misunderstanding.
There are many Leaders who have made absurd presentations of harmful misunderstanding regarding climate science. They seem to be confident that they can rely on their fans to believe the harmful misunderstandings. And, if they get publicly directly challenged regarding their presentation of a harmful misunderstanding (by a predatory news investigator) they will follow the play-book of being more misleading and claiming that they are being 'attacked by woke people (with the understanding that 'their fans' misunderstand being Woke to be a Bad Thing).
Having social media and other media full of presentations of harmful misunderstanding is not helpful. However, I consider it important to preserve each unique presentation of harmful misunderstanding (not allowing multiple instances to spawn all over) along with a detailed explanation of why it is not to be believed.
Some group should do that regarding climate science - Oh Wait - maybe there already are groups doing that (if only people who claim to be self-researching to self-learn could find such resources).
That leaves the required actions to be the limiting of harmful production and spreading of understandably harmful misinformation. If only all Leaders would help with that effort.
There will always be people who dislike restrictions on their freedom to benefit from harmful misunderstandings. But it is not necessary to compromise 'responsible ethical leadership efforts to limit harm done' in an effort to 'not disappoint the people who want more freedom to act harmfully and be excused by harmful misunderstandings'.
Leadership is about deciding who to disappoint, what actions to discourage, and who should be helped. Harmful misleading has no real future, but it can be popular and profitable for as long as it can be gotten away with.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:33 AM on 17 December 20222022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
Follow-up to my comment @12,
This NPR report about changes in leadership of the Westlands Water District (the largest agricultural irrigation agency in the US):
Some of America's biggest vegetable growers fought for water. Then the water ran out'
is a good example of the type of leadership change needed at all levels of leadership on all issues related to climate change impact (and many other issues).
What is not mentioned, and is an important part of the required systemic change of leadership, is whether the changing leadership will also be pushing for higher-level leadership to do more to limit the harm of increased climate change impacts.
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Bob Loblaw at 01:15 AM on 17 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
Peppers @ 4:
Your first sentence covers two standard myths, found on the SkS list of "Most used climate myths" (upper left of every page - here is a direct link to the list).
Your second sentence in nonsense. Humidity and clouds are indeed modelled and tracked. After all, we know that humidity exists (and changes with location and time), and I can see clouds out my window right now. We have long-standing data sets recording both for well over a century. Weather forecasts and climate models routinely include both in their calculations.
Controlling clouds and humidity? Maybe there you have a bit of a point. On a global scale, our "control" is limited to the changes we are causing due to warming caused by our emissions of CO2. (Read the above lings on trace gas and water vapor.)
In the rest of your paragraph, you seem to be confusing hydrogen and nitrogen. Nitrogen is 78% of the atmospheric gases. Hydrogen is less than 1%. And the information in the original post is how hydrogen will affect methane concentrations.
Whatever is guiding your understanding, you really badly need to find some better sources of information (or find a way of getting a better understanding of what you are reading).
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peppers at 00:06 AM on 17 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
I am still struggling with our involvement with Co2 at .04 of 1% and water vapor is the main ghg factor at a hundred times more the effect at up to 4% of the total volume. Humidity and clouds cannot be modeled, tracked or controlled, which will be vexing to all the white knights out there. And now we are considering dangerously affecting hoydrogen which is 78.02% of our atmosphere? I am not getting the data here that we have the power or culpability to be significant in these regards. But I seriously question whether we can affect anything involving 78% of our entire atmosphere. Is this serious?
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MA Rodger at 23:30 PM on 16 December 2022It's a natural cycle
Long Knoll @33,
If confusion is sought, the early attempts at creating an Arctic Sea Ice Extent/Area record is a good place to start.
The 'splice' of two of these early attempts was probably not the work of Heller but of a Kenneth Richard shiown in this NoTricksZone post from 2016.
The more recent part of the spliced graph is taken from Fig 7.20a in the first IPCC Assessment Report of 1990. A similar graph appears in the second IPCC Assessment Report of 1995 as Fig 3.8a. These Arctic Ice records do not match later records which begin to appear in Chapman & Walsh (1993). I have plotted out these various records (see here the graph posted 16/12/22) but have not had any success finding an explanation for the dip in Arctic Ice levels 1973-76. (The use of US Navy data is not something considered accurate today, but the decision not to use it or to use it differently is not something I have seen explained.)
The earlier part of the 'spliced' graph is from Vinnikov et al (1980) which isn't on-line but note the graphic in this 2013 slide show by Vinnikov from Vinnikov et al (1999) (abstract on-line) presents a record consistent with the current records. And for good measure Walsh is one of the co-authors of Vinnikov et al (1999). So again we see a major reappraisal of the data which hasn't been explained in the literature. And without access to these early papers, the question remains of what the basis for these early records actually is. (And my assertion back in 2017 that Vinnikov et al (1980) was plotting summer ice levels is probably wrong.)
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:01 AM on 16 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
But Philippe, he seems to have worked very hard finding the answers that confirmed his predetermined conclusions. (sarc)
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Philippe Chantreau at 07:46 AM on 16 December 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
I suggest to enter this one in a new, specially created category: longest, most tedious Gish-Gallop ever. I can't recall any previous utterance that would have a chance to compete; congratulations, you win. The enormous amount of verbiage does not manage to hide the lack of specifics, which itself is beaten by the lack of substantiation, the latter being still far behind the lack of understanding of the many subjects grazed. Koonin and 10 minutes of PragerU? Consider me unimpressed...
