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Comments 32551 to 32600:

32551. Phil at 05:28 AM on 16 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       At the risk of incurring a  "pilling on" Moderator comment, can I just add this for Gac73

       The explanations that Michael and CBDunkerson have offers, include a kernel of information that explains why your use of the Laws of Thermodynamics is flawed. The key point is that, since the Ocean is warmed by the Sun (as indeed is the atmosphere to a lesser extent), the Ocean + Atmosphere are not an energetically isolated system. They may be stable, but they are only so with a constant flow of energy through the system, and so are not at equilibrium. If they were energetically isolated, then you would be correct: for the very simple reason that there is nothing to heat the ocean except the atmosphere, and it cannot do so because it is cooler.

       Rigourously thermodynamics only applies to energtically isolated systems. We can treat the Earth as a "nearly" thermodynamic system but only if we include the Sun, and outer space as a heat sink

       Hope that helps.

32552. Rob Honeycutt at 02:13 AM on 16 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       Michael Sweet...  "Joe D'Aleo is smart enough to know this."

       
       I wouldn't be too sure about this. He's certainly capable of knowing this, I'm not so sure, once he's found a point that he prefers, that he's capable of moving past it to actually admit an error.

32553. michael sweet at 02:13 AM on 16 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       Gac73,

       I like CBDunkersons reply.  The energy goes: Sun, Ocean, Atmosphere, space.  Do you have additional questions?

       Be careful when you look up the citations.  It is easy to take a quotation from someone like Dr. Trenberth out of context to suggest that his comment is incorrect. Try to find the context and the question being answered.

32554. michael sweet at 02:09 AM on 16 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       Sailingfree,

       The forecast models undoubtedly use a different baseline than NOAA does.  Joe D'Aleo is smart enough to know this.  NOAA uses the average of the 20th century.  Forecast models probably use the last decade (I could not find their baseline in a quick Google), although they might use a longer time period.  Since the difference is so small that suggests they use a recent baseline.

32555. sailingfree at 00:32 AM on 16 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       The skeptics are already reacting, by finding another data set.

       On his site ICECAP, joe D'Aleo claims: "Using the actual data that goes into the forecast models used for the 7 day forecasts you see on TV and the internet, we find the global anomaly was a mere +0.07C in November and for the year to date a measly +0.11C, far short of the +0.68C warmest ever anomaly that NOAA claimed last month. One modeler told me “It was obvious to me since about April that NOAA had decided that 2014 was going to be the hottest year ever. The White House needed this for their political objectives.”"

       Moderator Response:

       [Rob P] - Resorting to conspiracy theory isn't a cogent argument. Don't worry, if 2014 does in fact end up the warmest year in surface temperature data sets we can expect a lot of lame excuses from the anti-science brigade.

32556. CBDunkerson at 22:59 PM on 15 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       gac73, you seem to have been misinformed somewhere along the line.

       For example, you seem to suggest that Trenberth's 'missing heat' has something to do with heat transfer from the atmosphere to the oceans. It doesn't. The 'missing heat' is simply the difference between the amount of additional heat satellite measurements suggest should be here (i.e. measured energy in minus measured energy out) and the amount of additional heat we have detected by measuring various parts of the climate system (i.e. increased air temperatures + increased water temperatures + heat to convert ice to water, et cetera). If satellite measurements show that energy came in and didn't go back out then logically it must still be here, yet all our measurements of the climate system come up with a smaller amount of heat... some of the heat is therefore 'missing'. Whether that is due to measurement errors, heat buildup in areas we are unable to measure (e.g. the deep oceans), or some combination of the two is still being worked out.

       Likewise, this whole claim of massive heat transfers from the atmosphere to the oceans is a distorted/false representation. Greenhouse gases slow the release of heat from the atmosphere, which in turn slows the release of heat from the oceans. If you slow the release of heat while maintaining the addition of it (from the Sun) temperatures increase. No atmosphere to ocean heat transfer involved.

       As to why most of the heat is in the oceans... the amount of heat required to raise the average temperature of the world's oceans 1 degree is much greater than the amount required to raise the average temperature of the atmosphere 1 degree. This is true both because of the size of the oceans and because water is simply a better heat sink than air. You can observe this yourself by putting two identical sealed containers in a freezer, one filled with air and the other with water. When you take them out (preferably before the water freezes) the container with the water will remain 'cold' long after the container with the air does.

32557. Cedders at 22:07 PM on 15 December 2014
       Arctic sea ice has recovered
       

       There's a BBC story today about a paper by Rachel Tilling to be presented at the AGU.  She mentions "a decline that looks a bit like a sawtooth, where we can lose volume but then recover some of it if there happens to be a shorter melt season one year".  Unfortunately the news story doesn't make it clear what the period of this sawtooth would be.  The minimum this year seems to have recovered nearly to 2009 levels, but the longer-term trend is still towards an ice-free Arctic summer by the 2020s, as shown in ArctischePinguin's graphs here.

32558. Daniel Bailey at 21:55 PM on 15 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       "Academia states that the 'missing' forecast atmospheric heat has moved from the atmosphere INTO the ocean. i.e the ocean is a heat sink for atmospheric heat Moving directly FROM the atmosphere INTO the ocean."

       If said academia are phrasing it this way, that is incorrect.  Citation required, please. 

       As the moderator notes, rising levels of CO2 act (via back radiation) to reduce the temperature gradient across the cool skin layer boundary at the ocean:atmosphere interface.  This occurs 24/7/365, and slows the rate of energy transfer (via longwave [IR] radiation) from the oceans to the air.  With the ensuing result of the oceans retaining a greater level of thermal energy than they did in a lower atmospheric CO2 environment.  With the added note that the energy retained by the ocean is already in it via absorption of shortwave radiation from the sun, directly.
       
       Is that more clear?

32559. Glenn Tamblyn at 21:12 PM on 15 December 2014
       Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
       

       CaptHillWalker

       Firstly, the heat our bodies produce is actually stored energy from the sun, captured by photosynthesis in plants, perhaps also transferred to animals. We then eat the plants and animals to generate the heat that comes out of our bodies. And this by and large isn't ancient sunlight; it was captured over the previous year, maybe several years in the case of large food animals such a cattle. So we are energy neutral in terms of our metabolisms - we just store sunlight for short periods then release it again.

       Similarly we are carbon neutral in terms of our metabolisms - we just store carbon captured from the atmosphere for short periods then release it again.

       Our burning of fossil fuels is a different matter - that is releasing energy & carbon captured 100's of millions of years ago.

       Some numbers to put these energy quantities into context:

       The human body, on average, consumes energy at around 100 watts. More when we are exerting but that is the average. So 7 billion humans consume energy at around 0.7 trillion watts.

       Worldwide energy consumption by our technologies in contrast is around 17 trillion watts. 24 times as much. Each human being has the equivalent of 24 slaves. For those in the developed world that figure is closer to 100 times; 100 slaves.

       Next, total energy flow from within the Earth, all geothermal heat, is around 44 trillion watts. So all human energy generation is around 40% of this. If human energy generation continues to grow at its long term growth rate, irrespective of whether that is from fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear, whatever, then by mid century human energy generation will have grown to match that.

       Then if we look at the measured buildup of heat in the climate system, primarily in the oceans, due to climate change, we are seeing a rise at a rate of around 300-350 trillion watts.

       • 7 to 8 times geothermal
       • 20 times total human energy generation
       • 500 times human metabolism which is energy neutral anyway.

       So the impact of anything purely metabolic is much, much smaller. And it is energy neutral anyway even if it is small

32560. gac73 at 20:47 PM on 15 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       @Michael

       Thanks for your prompt reply, however I feel that I may not have clearly communicated my question as the process that you describe above is how the atmosphere can alter the temperature of the ocean.

       What I was wanting to know is if someone here could assist me with the following :

       I understand how c02 is absorbed into the oceans.

       But how can 'heat' IN the atmosphere move FROM the atmosphere INTO the ocean?

       The Laws of Thermodynamics as applied to two thermodynamic systems not in equilibrium with eachother (the atmosphere and the ocean), says that net sum energy TRANSFER can only ever be in one direction. Clouds are the observable evidence that net sum energy transfer is from the ocean TO the atmosphere. So atmospheric heat cannot move FROM the atmosphere INTO the ocean. This would be a violation of Thermodynamics.

       Academia states that the 'missing' forecast atmospheric heat has moved from the atmosphere INTO the ocean. i.e the ocean is a heat sink for atmospheric heat Moving directly FROM the atmosphere INTO the ocean. 

       What I would like to know is how is such a position tenable? i.e Trenberth - the 'missing' heat is transmitted into the oceans ; Tim Flannery - 90% of the heat (atmospheric heat) ends up in the ocean.

       (I have used capitals to clarify the question).

       Hoping I can get some further feedback on this.

       Thanks

       Moderator Response:

       [Rob P] - I thought Michael Sweet did a great job of summarizing this, so am unlikely to make it any clearer - but I'll try.

       Additional greenhouse gases cause more heat (longwave radiation) to be directed toward the oceans. This heat cannot penetrate into the ocean proper, but it does warm the uppermost surface and thus lowers the thermal gradient through the cool-skin layer. The normal flow of heat from the warmer ocean to the cooler atmosphere is reduced. As the oceans are heated by shortwave radiation from the sun, a reduction in the rate of heat loss through the cool-skin layer causes the oceans to warm.

       So the Laws of Thermodynamics are quite safe - the net flow of heat still moves from the warmer ocean to the cooler atmosphere.

32561. gac73 at 20:21 PM on 15 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       @Rob Thanks for the post.

32562. scaddenp at 13:01 PM on 15 December 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #50
       

       Well I imagine California and Texas would welcome El Nino as drought-breaker, but I think South American fisherman would be the most fearful. Effects of El Nino on child health discussed here. Somewhat more scary than losing an argument.

32563. One Planet Only Forever at 12:00 PM on 15 December 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #50
       

       It seems a bit 'over the top' to claim that El NIno is much-feared.

       There are some potentially significant regional weather consequences of an El Nino and people in those regions do need to be concerned, and everyone else should be concerned about their plight.

       However, the people most-fearful of an El NIno are those who wish to dismiss the climate science and delay growth of popular support for the required global reduction of CO2 emissions. They know they will lose their ability to abuse the recent La Nina influenced global average surface temperatures to further their interests. And nobody who cares should shed any tears about the concerns of that group.

32564. jimlj at 05:52 AM on 15 December 2014
       Global warming continues despite continuous denial
       

       William, not to be piling on, but in your own comment you showed why the difference.  NOAA is measuring 0-2000 meters, and you state

       "the ocean abyss below 1.24 miles (1,995 meters) has not warmed measurably"

       So by your own reference they are measuring different things.

32565. Rob Honeycutt at 03:28 AM on 15 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       Gac73...  There's also a good site explaining ocean/atmosphere coupling here: 

       http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/o_atm.html

32566. michael sweet at 03:10 AM on 15 December 2014
       Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
       

       Gac73,

       I posted a response to your question here.

32567. michael sweet at 03:08 AM on 15 December 2014
       How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
       

       Gac73,

       The simple answer to your question of how can a warmer atmosphere heat the oceans is this:

       1) The ocean absorbs heat from the sun and is warmer than the atmosphere above.

       2) According to the first law of thermodynamics, the ocean loses heat to the colder atmosphere.  The atmosphere radiates the heat into space.  The system is at equilibrium.

       3) AGW causes the atmosphere to become warmer.

       4) According to the first law of thermodynamics, the ocean now loses heat more slowly to the atmosphere, since the heat gradient is reduced.

       5) The ocean is now losing heat more slowly than before, while still receiving heat from the sun at the same rate.  The heat remaining in the ocean causes the ocean to warm until equilibrium is restored. 

       6) Winds and current affect where and how fast the additional heat is distributed through the ocean.  Because the ocean is so huge, compared to the atmosphere, it retains the majority of heat from AGW.

32568. KR at 03:04 AM on 15 December 2014
       Global warming continues despite continuous denial
       

       william - The only issue here is semantic. There is a considerable increase in ocean heat content for 700-2000m (often referred to as deep) ocean, some warming in the 0-700m layer (increased transport to depth, apparently), and _so far_ only a small amount of warming in the >2000m ocean (abyssal). 

       There are significant regional differences; the Southern Ocean near Antarctica is showing a great deal of deep warming, right where the thermohaline circulation dives, for example. And the changes evident in the abyssal ocean are as one would expect given the time delays for circulation - you can actually see the decades or centuries delay for abyssal circulation in the observed temperature changes. The spread of warmth from the Antarctic downflow is quite evident. But there simply hasn't been time for much of the abyss to be affected, _yet_.

       So the confusion seen (and pushed by some of the denial sites, I'll note) is due to confusing a warming deep ocean with the time capsule of the abyssal, where most AGW effects haven't quite reached yet.

32569. william11409 at 02:18 AM on 15 December 2014
       Global warming continues despite continuous denial
       

       The findings in the NOAA paper discussed above do not agree with findings from scientists at NASA published in Nature Climate Change in October 2014.  NOAA consider "When you look at the oceans, the so-called pause is simply a redistribution, a burying of heat to deeper waters" while NASA states "NASA Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed" (http://tinyurl.com/ou66qzo).  

       The report states"Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, analyzed satellite and direct ocean temperature data from 2005 to 2013 and found the ocean abyss below 1.24 miles (1,995 meters) has not warmed measurably". The leading author of the study states:  "The combination of satellite and direct temperature data gives us a glimpse of how much sea level rise is due to deep warming. The answer is — not much." 

32570. gac73 at 22:10 PM on 14 December 2014
       Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
       

       Hi All, 

       I'm new here and hope, although this question is indirectly related, that it is not too far off topic to not be answered.

       I understand how the oceans absorb c02 and the forces at play.

       What I would like to know is how does c02 absorbed 'heat' from the atmosphere get into the ocean itself. What are the mechanisms at work that makes it possible for the ocean to be a 'heat sink' for atmospheric heat?

       i.e "90% of the atmospheric heat ends up in the ocean" - Tim Flannery.

       This assertion on face value appears to be in violation of the Laws of Thermodynamics.

       i.e Two thermodynamic systems that are not in equilibrium with each other must have net sum energy transfer move in one direction only. 

       Because clouds are the observable evidence that net sum energy transfer occurs from the ocean to the atmosphere, and that net sum energy transfer between the atmosphere and the ocean can only be in one direction, how can the ocean be a heat sink for atmospheric heat as it would have to be a net sum value, which would be a violation of thermodynamics?

       Any assistance here would be greatly appreciated.

       Thanks

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] This post explains how increasing levels of CO2 heat the ocean.  For continued questions on that mechanism, place those questions there, not here.  Thanks!

32571. CaptHillWalker at 20:00 PM on 14 December 2014
       Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
       

       Many of the above statements make sense within their own context.

       But just to ask a few more questions while making one or 2 Vital observations

       ALL C02 was here at some point thats how the fossil fuels were created by absorbing C02 - creating Oxygen, becoming fossil fuels and the massive population now burns them in every activity we do to keep the population increasing feeding a flawed econimic model that requires continual growth.

       The average tempeture is not the real issue, its the return to climate extreme´s that are causing panic amongst political powerhouses as it will impact on the their Economic gravy train.

       All C02 - Oxygen - organic matter, fossil fuels etc are part of the Carbon cycle over geological time.. nothing is exempt...

       Question...has any calculation or consideration been taken regarding the effect on temp that 7 Billion people and the remaining living creatures have on recorded or calulated temp.. we carry a lot of heat.

       Humans we ...

       Store a lot of water in our bodys and plastic bottles

       We are mobile heat cells that are warm blooded

       we displace a lot of air while creating hotspots.

       Unless we find a economic model that can work with natural population shrinkage we will never reduce the effect we have on the carbon cycle...

       The Climate will change as it always has and always will. with or without us.

       We need to adapt to a new way of living with each other and the planet we are guests on...

32572. michael sweet at 10:00 AM on 14 December 2014
       Cutting carbon pollution is the key to curbing global warming
       

       Denisaf:

       Here is the Skeptical Science response to the Skeptic myth the carbon dioxide has a short half-life.  The individual molecules have about a five year lifetime.  The increase in concentration caused by the release of those molecules lasts for hundreds of years.

32573. scaddenp at 19:33 PM on 13 December 2014
       Cutting carbon pollution is the key to curbing global warming
       

       Not entirely true. Fossil fuels have no C14 and a different C13/C12 ratio.

       See this article.

32574. denisaf at 19:04 PM on 13 December 2014
       Cutting carbon pollution is the key to curbing global warming
       

       That comment about carbon dioxide stays aloft for centuries is contrary to the reality that carbon dioxide has always circulated. Industrial emissions has just increased the rate of generation of carbon dioxide to couple with respiration and other sources to more than counter the rate of absorption by photosynthesis. There is no possible way of identifying the source (fossil fuel or respiration) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, measurements have established that the concentarion level has increased rapidly in the past century and is continuing to increase rapidly, largely due to the high rate of emissions from fossil fuels.

32575. michael sweet at 06:07 AM on 13 December 2014
       Skeptical Science at the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting
       

       Nine presentation from people at SkS!!  This demonstrates the strength of the site that John Cook has built.

32576. BaerbelW at 04:28 AM on 13 December 2014
       Skeptical Science at the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting
       

       For those who cannot be at AGU: Sou from HotWhopper.com explains how to "Get ready to (virtually) attend AGU Fall Meeting 2014 "

32577. knaugle at 00:24 AM on 13 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       The blog link pointed to a graphing tool at the University of York, Chemistry Dept of all things, that is a useful addition to the woodfortrees site I usually visit for charts.  It is interesting that most of the warming in the datasets appears to be from ocean temperatures, since land only data is a bit flatter.

       As for the moderator's comment that 1998 was a hot monster year, that is true.  However, plots show that its El Nino effect was mostly from Jan through Aug 1998.  Also NOAA says 1998 was only 3rd warmest, soon to be 4th.  So it may be that WRyan did in fact mean 1998 will soon fall out of the top 10.  That's a rather sobering thought.

32578. Riduna at 10:31 AM on 12 December 2014
       Global warming continues despite continuous denial
       

       We seem to discuss this topic ad nausea while studiously ignoring where ocean heat goes to and what its effects on the cryosphere are. Pity. Is it too scary?

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Please enter the the term "ocean heat" into the SkS Search box. You will see that your claim is entirely unfounded with respect to this website.

32579. Jim Eager at 09:06 AM on 12 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       And best of all, Tamino simply does not suffer run of the mill false-skeptic fools. At all.

32580. gws at 07:03 AM on 12 December 2014
       More research confirming large methane leakage from shale boom
       

       UT released the next installment of their larger study with EDF, this time in ES&T; Press release here. One main finding: few large sources dominate the overall source sector (here: pneumatic controllers, liquid unloadings), aka non-normal distribution of sources, consistent with other findings presented in this series.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] For future reference, please spell out names rather than use "naked acronyms" which many of our readers may not be familiar with.

       In this particular case:

       UT = University of Texas

       EDF = Environmnetal Defense Fund

       ES&T = Environmental Science & Technology

32581. michael sweet at 03:34 AM on 12 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       For those who are not familiar with Tamino (who wrote this post), he is a statistician.  These analysis are his specialty.  He accounts for the autocorrelation (the modified dice calculation mentioned above) in the OP by:

       "I’ll also take into account that the noise doesn’t even follow the simplest form of autocorrelation usually applied, what’s called “AR(1)” noise, but it can be well approximated by a somewhat more complex form referred to as “ARMA(1,1)”

       95% confidence is the normal choice in science (discussed in the OP just under the spoiler alert). If you do not understand the jargon ask a question.

       I am not a statistician so I do not question Tamino when he does an analysis.  I have seen a lot of people question Tamino's choices, mostly people who are not statisticians, and he always has a good rational for his choices.

        

32582. One Planet Only Forever at 01:13 AM on 12 December 2014
       Even climate change experts and activists might be in denial
       

       CBDunkerson,

       My pursuit is not impossible. It is only challenging because the current socioeconomic system grossly promotes the temptation to be inconsiderate and intolerant. That pairing of support can be seen as the core vote support target group of all political groups wanting to get away with unacceptable actions and attiitudes, from the vicious dictatorial and military controlled styles of leadership in developing nations to the vicious pursuers of financial gain any way they can get away with in developed 'democratic' nations.

       Altruism is also a fundamental human nature. It is naturally evident in young children (see a report here). And the beauty is that once an adult 'indoctrinated in a selfish consumerism society' realized that they actually have the choice regarding how they behave and they choose to be more altruistic and helpful to others, no amount of deceptive misleading marketing will change their mind again.

       I am only sharing the attitude I have learned from others. There are many people striving to develop a sustainable civil society and socioeconomic system. And this is nothing new. It was what Charles Dicken's was pushing for in his time.

       Admittedly mass-marketed comsumerism with its power of temptation increases the number of people who initially grow up to be selfish pursuers of their personal interest. But they can grow out of that attitude if they care to.

       Eventually those who don't care won't matter. As the problems their actions and attitudes create become unacceptably obvious they lose popular support.

       Hopefully this current spurt of successful bad behaviour won't be able to create too much damage before the 'unjustified success' is ended. And hopefully humanity learns how to keep future generations from ever again allowing the incosiderate and intolerant to succeed. That would be the way to ensure a constantly improved development of sustainable better future for all.

32583. Joel_Huberman at 00:15 AM on 12 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       Very nice post! That said, I want to repeat Rocketman's concern about the dice analogy. Adjacent years are not independent of each other. But there's probably a way to take that partial annual interdependence into account when calculating the statistical implications of the whole series of years not exceeding the significance limit--a modified dice calculation.

       I also have one question. In the second graph, why are data points shown for years after 2008?

32584. CBDunkerson at 22:50 PM on 11 December 2014
       Even climate change experts and activists might be in denial
       

       One Planet, I wish you the best of luck in your quest to make fundamental changes to human nature. I think you are basically beating your head against a wall, but I'd be more than thrilled if you somehow achieved the impossible.

       John Hartz, I've never really gotten the 'artificial intelligence' thing. Why would we even want to make an artificial intelligence? If there is one thing we don't have in short supply (just ask the 'overpopulation' people) it is natural intelligences. There are billions of natural human intelligences out there... many of them barely being used (especially if they watch Fox News). So why would we want to make even more artificial ones?

       At this point people usually start talking about computing power and repetitive tasks and yadda yadda... but none of that is intelligence. Rather, that is processing speed and automation... which indeed could be vastly improved if guided directly by an intelligence rather than indirectly by a programmer or system user. So, why not give existing natural intelligences direct access to computer processing and automation? Same result, but no artificial intelligence required. Technology to transfer data to and from the human brain already exists, and will almost certainly be perfected long before true artificial intelligence. By the time we can create a true AI it shouldn't be any danger to us because much of the human race should be able to operate on a level playing field. Adding direct human decision making to existing computer automation yields the same results as full AI. Take automated vehicles for instance. Right now the state of the art can handle stop signs, pedestrians, traffic lights, and the vast majority of other situations which a car might encounter... but every so often they run into something they aren't programmed for (e.g. another car coming the wrong way down a one way street). Why would we need to wait for true AI to resolve that? Send the situation to an operator (in the car or remotely), they decide what to do (e.g. back out to let the police car going the wrong way pass) and then the automation software carries out that decision. Yes, it might take a human a second or two to make a decision like that while a computer could do so much faster, but we're talking about the difference between automating 99.99% vs 100% of most tasks. Both would fundamentally transform everything we do and create a world where 7 billion intelligences would be vastly more than we would ever need to make the requisite remaining decisions. The question then becoming... what will all those people do?

32585. rocketman at 13:28 PM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       Very interesting analysis.  Statistics is not my forte but I have a few observations and comments.

       The test seems to be set of as a two tailed test determining whether the later period is different, not slower.  I think this is justified on a purely impartial scientific basis but may not be as convincing if one is biased to believe in the slowdown.

       I don't think the dice analogy is valid.  Whether the dice are loaded or not, each roll is independent of the others.  However, in your analysis, 1999 shares 94% of its data with 2000.  That is why the plots have a smooth curve instead of the jagged pattern you would see if you plotted throws of an honest die.

       It would be expected that the probabilities drop off as time approches the present becasue ther is less and less data.  If tomorrow were the coldest day globally on record by a full degree, it wouldn't constitute a significant trend.

       My thoughts on the 95% confidence standard are that, in a lot of areas, being right 90% of the time is pretty darn good.  The NOAA graph gets  close to that but that is just cherry picking from the data sets. (Hate to give the deniers ideas). 

       Looking at the curves, the most striking thing is the similarity of the three surface data sets, the RSS satellite data(!) and the Berkely land data.  These are also the sets showing the highest probability of a slow down.  Doing an eyeball average of these five, it may be as high as 80% in 2006.  Not terrible, but not too convincing either. 

       Interesting that the C&W and the land-only CRUTEM curves are so similar.  I think C&W made a good case for their improved handling of missing data and it is no surprise (based on the trend they demonstrated when it was published) that this data set shows the probability of a slowdown at 60% or less. 

       UAH?  Ironic that it shows essentially zero probability since it is the denier's darling data set.  Of course what it really shows is that this data is just noise.  If the lower atmosphere caught fire, would UAH notice?

32586. One Planet Only Forever at 13:23 PM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       WRyan,

       I agree. The unusually warm for its time 1998 will be cooler than most years in the near future and possibly all years after 2020. In the not too distant future even an extreme La Nina event won't temporarily produce an annual average as low as the 'high' of 1998.

32587. WRyan at 10:45 AM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       According to NOAA and GISS datasets, the temperature trend since the mid-70s has been about 0.165C increase per decade. if that conitnues we can expect the temp at 2050 to be about 0.57C warmer than now, which will be about 1.5C warmer than the 1880's values.

       On the topic of the 1998 temp, it was about 0.175C higher than the trend value for that year. So that equals the trend value for 2009. By 2020, on its current trajectory, the trend value will be 0.175C higher than the 1998 temp. So if the current trend continues, after 2020 we are unlikely to see a temperature as cool as 1998 again during our lifetime (unless you are currently very young and live a long life). If there are no La Nina events or large volcanic eruptions over the next few years, we won't see a temp as cool as the 1998 temp again this decade either.

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] I suspect you mean 1997. 1998 was a hot monster El Nino year.

32588. wili at 10:04 AM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       Thanks, KR, for the pointers, and for this:

       we appear to be near the bottom of possible short term variations right now with a combination of ENSO, low insolation, and (relatively) high volcanic aerosol injections into the stratosphere. As these variations regress to the mean I fully expect any sign of a short term (and statistically insignificant) 'hiatus' to vanish as a fairly sharp upward variation.

        

       That's pretty much what I was thinking, plus perhaps some feedbacks kicking in.

       
       Don't worry about denialists ability to deny, though. If the data doesn't do what they want it to, they just make stuff up or reinterpret it in ways so insane it will make your head spin.

        

32589. Rob Honeycutt at 08:56 AM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       I'll be curious how the satellite data sets play out as we move into a phase more dominated by El Nino. I could imagine UAH/RSS might actually over play the rise in temperature.

       That might be a pretty pickle for a number of climate denial blogs.

32590. KR at 08:40 AM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       will - The underlying trend is not expected to suddenly change slope in the next few decades, certainly not as it did in the early '70s. But that underlying trend heads to ~2C by 2100, with a trajectory largely determined by our emissions path; it could be as high as 4°C if emissions follow the high-end RCP8.5 "business as usual" path, or as low as 1°C if we aggressively cut emissions. I would suggest reading IPCC AR5 WG1, Chapter 12 (12.4, to be more specific) for some of those details. 

       However, we appear to be near the bottom of possible short term variations right now with a combination of ENSO, low insolation, and (relatively) high volcanic aerosol injections into the stratosphere. As these variations regress to the mean I fully expect any sign of a short term (and statistically insignificant) 'hiatus' to vanish as a fairly sharp upward variation. Leaving the pseudo-skeptics to search for a later short term low variation to start chanting about their fantastical upcoming Ice Age...

32591. wili at 08:22 AM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       DId I miss something? Where do you address the question that is the title of the article? Or is that supposed to be ironic in some way?

       In any case, I would like anyone's opinions on whether there are reasons to expect an increase in the rate of GW in the coming years and decades? Another inflection point, as happened in about 1970.

       The linear red lines and dashes on the last graph suggest not. But aren't lots of people talking about hitting 2 C above preindustrial levels well before 2050?

       If so, when should we expect to see an increase in the rate of warming, exactly?

32592. wili at 05:21 AM on 11 December 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #50A
       

       Something to add to the next news roundup? Or worthy of its own post?:

       First El Niño in five years declared by Japan’s weather bureau

       "Agency becomes first major meteorological bureau to declare weather phenomenon which can bring severe droughts to south-east Asia and Australia"

       www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/10/first-el-nino-in-five-years-declared-by-japans-weather-bureau

32593. steven11438 at 04:51 AM on 11 December 2014
       Is Earth’s temperature about to soar?
       

       Hi,

       Great post, however no matter what you say or how sound the math, science or data is you are dealing with the political extreme who will never listen.  I will add though that this is great ammo for me when I stand up to such extremists out there on the Internet.  Can but hope we win this....for all our sakes.

32594. John Hartz at 02:20 AM on 11 December 2014
       Even climate change experts and activists might be in denial
       

       Here's a timely article speaking directly to some of the issues raised by commenters on his thread.

       How Millionaires Buy Up Farmland And Hoard All Our Water by Karen Piper, Alertnet, Nov 26, 2014

       The subtitle of Piper's article is:

       When FOX News stands up for "family farmers," they are really fighting for Murdoch's rich friends.

32595. One Planet Only Forever at 00:49 AM on 11 December 2014
       Even climate change experts and activists might be in denial
       

       CBDunkerson,

       From my perspective.

       When you say "Would it be wonderful if we all worked for the mutual benefit of our fellow humans? Sure... but that's fantasy land." you are affirming my assertion regarding the unacceptable attitudes and actions that are promoted by the socioeconomic system I assert needs to change.

       And when I refer to electricity for the poor I am referring to the technology you point to that is helping in Africa. That techjnology is not there through pursuits of profit. It was develeoped and deployed there through volunteer efforts and charitable actions contrary to the motivations of the global trade market. Smae goes for much of the clean water technology being developed and deployed to help the poorest of the poor.

       I also challenge your correlation of any benefit for the poor from mass-consumption industrialization. It can just as easily be claimed, and potentially more likely be justified, that 'labour laws and government intervention and progressive taxation to get the benefit of much of that activity delivered for the benefit of the poorest was required because allowing the wealthiest to benefit as much as they could get away with did not work well for anyone but the richest'. I admit some of the richest took their obligation to aid the poorest very seriously, but not all the richest were required to and those who cared least had the competetive advantage, and still do.

       I always have and always will say the ability of inconsiderate and intolerant people to succeed is the problem, and is never a potential solution. Many more fortunate people do care to help others. The problem is the more fortunate ones who have no such interest. Your attempts to group all rich vs. all poor is 'your perspective' not mine.

       The only way for all others, especially the poorest of the poor to have sustainably better circumstances far into the future is socioeconomic system changes to discoiurage the belief that inconsiderate and intolerant people should be able to succeed if they can drum up enough temporary unsustainable popular support or figure out a way to be profitable temporarily. There really is little defense for the current system. The global economy has grown many times faster than the global population yet there are still very many incredibly poor people. And the system has developed unacceptable unsustainable activities and entrenched resistance to the required changes to decent sustainable developments.

32596. John Hartz at 23:54 PM on 10 December 2014
       Even climate change experts and activists might be in denial
       

       @Tom Curtis #16:

       The human race is on the cusp of creating Aticificial Intelligence (AI). Once that occurs, a new paradigm will exist. What this portends for the future of homo sapiens is a topic that is being hotly debated as we speak. For example, see:

       Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind by Rory Cellan-Jones, BBC News, Dec 2, 2014

       and 

       Google’s Eric Schmidt: Don’t Fear the Artificially Intelligent Future by Izzie Lapowsky, Wired, Dec 9, 2014

       Your thoughts about this matter would be greatly appreciated.

32597. CBDunkerson at 22:50 PM on 10 December 2014
       Even climate change experts and activists might be in denial
       

       One Planet wrote: "Many wonderful developments, like the electricity and lighting for the poor you refer to, have been the result of deliberate defiance of the motivation of the socioeconomic system by a few caring and considerate people."

       Frankly, I don't see how you can believe that. Thomas Edison invented the electric light bulb (and direct current), not for personal gain, but instead solely because he wanted to help the poor? Solar and wind power developers have no interest whatsoever in making money?

       No. The competitive greed driven 'socioeconomic system' which you villify is responsible for vast improvements in the standard of living of the human race as a whole. Would it be wonderful if we all worked for the mutual benefit of our fellow humans? Sure... but that's fantasy land. Analysis of the world based on fairy-tale foundations will always yield incorrect results.

       Also: "I went further and said the already more fortunate should not be allowed to further their benefit from the activities."

       I disagree. Apply this philosophy to any point in the past and the limits you place on the 'more fortunate' would do grievous harm to the 'less fortunate'. No coal powered rail-roads... no increase in mobility of poor populations. No great increase in fossil fuel burning to fuel the computer revolution... no advancement in computer driven technologies that benefit the poor. Many advancements which have benefited the rich have always also benefited the poor. The same seems inevitably true of the present and the future.

       Finally: "But unless there is a fundamental change to the socioeconomic system 'both rich and poor' will not benefit from the change."

       Again, I disagree. The limits on self-serving competition have been weakened in many parts of the world in recent decades and need to be rebuilt, but the general practice has been vastly beneficial to the human race. The 'socioeconomic system' requires tweaks to reign in the very very rich and give more opportunity to the majority, but nothing more.

        

       In some sense we seem to be debating percentages. You accuse something like most of the wealthiest 10% (?) of the global population of destructive self-interest... while I would instead limit it to a subset of the wealthiest 0.001%. The problem certainly exists, but I consider it concentrated to a few bad actors while you instead argue that it is systemic with only a few 'caring charitable people' keeping the whole thing from collapsing.

32598. One Planet Only Forever at 15:07 PM on 10 December 2014
       How the world's economic growth is actually un-economic
       

       This is indeed a more relevant and rational way of evaluating 'success and progress' than the currently touted economic indicators. And the measures can be adjusted as more is learned about the impacts of developed and developing popular and profitable activities. Ultimately the best measure is global total GPI with the GPI improving in all regions of the globe, no real losers (except for the less deserving among the already most fortunate).

       It is only possible to have sustainable growth of the global economy if there is sustainable improvement of the entire global society (sustainably better circumstances for the least fortunate). And global society can only be sustainably better if the global ecology is robust and diverse.

       -> Healthy Sustainable Diversity of Life is required for

       -> Healthy Sustainable Diversity of Societies which is required for

       -> Healthy Sustainable Economic Growth. With economic growth coming from the development of better sustainable ways of living as part of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet.

32599. One Planet Only Forever at 14:29 PM on 10 December 2014
       Even climate change experts and activists might be in denial
       

       Tom Curtis,
       I may be more optimistic about the future of humanity. I genuinely believe that humanity can thrive in constantly improving ways of living as a sustainable part of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet for the 1.75 billion years it is estimated to be habitable.

       Your reference to a civilization is a limited view I must admit I do not see as relevant to the discussion of the global action required for the benefit of the future of humanity. And even the future for humanity is a limited perspective on the issue. The totality of life on this amazing planet is what matters. I would say there is room for many evolving civilizations to find niches as sustainable parts of the robust diversity of life. And any civilization that tries to survive without being a sustainable part of the robust diversity of life is indeed destined to fail if far less than 1000 years, hopefully before ruing things for everyone else, a common result of the motivations of the current socioeconomic system, trying to benefit in ways that are better understood to be damaging and unsustainable.

       As for the sustainability of a global civilization that consumes non-renewable resources surviving 200 years being considered 'sustainable' I would say that is getting into the semantics of the term. Admittedly sustainable can be the term something that continues or is sustained for one year. It is sustainable for the short term. The future for humanity is not short term. In fact, I believe once humanity figures out how to live sustainably on this planet it will have the ability to sustainably expand far beyond this planet.

       As for sustainable energy, we have always had the means to reduce our global energy demands and meet most of the demand with far less damaging and far more sustainable energy supply than the burning of fossil fuels, but that was never motivated to be developed by people acting in the socioeconomic system. The people acting in the system with its motivation to get benefit as quickly as possible any damaging and unsustainable way that can be gotten away with developed to the almost untenable position we are at today, and the wish is clearly to continue that way if it can be gotten away with.

       Another factor that comes up is something I referred to in my previous comment. People will only be willing to change to behave better if it is cheaper and more enjoyable for them than getting away with less acceptable behaviour.

       As for fresh water and food, there has always been more than enough, if there were no excessive and wasteful consumers. As you say it depends on what those consumers are willing to accept. And those consumers are motivated to be over-consumptive and less sustainable by the socioeconomic system.

       As for total global population the following report here indicates the peak expected global population could be less than 12 billion, not the 17 billion you refer to. The article refers to a book being written by Wolfgang Lutz and his colleagues at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna, Austria, that suggest the peak global poppulation is likely to be less than 10 billion.

       There are many ways to think about this issue. I admit my thoughts are not that common. They always end up at the need for the socioeconomic system to be fundamentally changed so that humanity can actually most fully achieve what it can. Humanities best achievement requires each global generation to strive to develop the gift of a better future for all rather than pursuing the best possible present for themselves, especially when the ways that best present is pusued ruin things for the future.

32600. dana1981 at 14:12 PM on 10 December 2014
       California just had its worst drought in over 1200 years, as temperatures and risks rise
       

       scaddenp @9 is correct.  The problem with the NOAA report is that it's not a drought report, it's a rainfall report.  There's more to drought than just precipitation, with temperatures being another significant factor.

       Humans may or may not have influenced the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and hence the low precipitation indicated in the second figure above.  I think NOAA is being overconfident in saying there's no human connection, but we can't yet say for sure either way.

       However, humans indisputably played a role in the severity of the drought via global warming and higher temps.  This causes soil dryness, higher demand, decreasing snowpack, etc. etc.  For NOAA to ignore these influences and make claims about "drought" is misleading.  Unintentionally so - they're just defining "drought" in a very limited (and IMO kind of dumb) way, but misleading nonetheless.

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