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Kevin C at 18:18 PM on 4 October 2014Scientists find human fingerprints all over Australia's hottest year on record
Ashton: If you don't trust the BoM adjustments, Berkeley also produce a record for Australia, working independently from the raw data. Their results only run to Oct 2013, but the 12 month period to Oct 2013 was the hottest of any consecutive 12 month period on record.
Raw data are available from GHCN, ISTI, Berkeley and BoM (Nick Stokes provides more convenient access to the BoM data here). Adjsted data are available from GHCN, Berkeley, BoM and CRU.
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Ashton at 15:37 PM on 4 October 2014Scientists find human fingerprints all over Australia's hottest year on record
My apologies. The last line of my previous post should read "Whatever, the public perception of the BoM might be less favourable than previously was the case".
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Ashton at 15:28 PM on 4 October 2014Scientists find human fingerprints all over Australia's hottest year on record
The official measurements of temperatures in Australia are made by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) which is currently under scrutiny for some practices, which it stoutly defends, that are claimed to:
Turn cooling trends into warming trends
Disregard early temperature records that show 2013 may not have been the hottest year ever. These claims have been made by Graham lloyd writing in the Australian. Senator Simon Birmingham who has responsibility is to set up independent technical advisory group by end 2014.
Whether the criticism of the BoM is justified has yet to be established, although i suspect it is ill founded. That said however, it might, just might, be somewhat premature to make claims that 2013 was Australia's hottest year ever as data prior to 1910 may show this not to be the case. Whatever, the public perception of the BoM is less favourable than previously was the case.
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grindupBaker at 14:14 PM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
@Russ R. #29 One thing I found amusing about Lord Monkton's RSS monthly satellite global temperature anomaly graph and his LSQ fit on WUWT showing 0 degrees/decade trend over the 217 months from just before the super El Nino (from August 1996 in order to include super El Nino and thus mask underlying warming trend, how subtle can a person get ? ) to September 2014 is that it clearly shows that the 186-month trend from March 1999 ending September 2014 must then be a +ve warming trend because it drops the huge +ve offset in 1998. Since a 186-month trend is more recent than a 217-month trend this proves conclusively that "global warming" increased from August 1996 to March 1999. Furthermore (here comes the fun bit, thanks Chris) since any number divided by zero yields infinity Chris has proved that "global warming" increased infinitely from August 1996 to March 1999. I wasn't alarmed before but Chris's thoughtful analysis has alarmed me in an alarmy way.
(snip)
Moderator Response:[RH] Off-topic for this thread. Please feel free to repost on another more relevant thread.
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Tom Curtis at 10:30 AM on 4 October 2014Hockey stick is broken
I have been playing around with the top 100 (cherry picked) Hockey Stick Index (HSI) that are all that are supplied by McIntyre and McKitrick in supplementary data for their 2005 paper in GRL. In doing so, I noticed certain defects in the Hockey Stick index they used. Of these, the most glaring is that for any straight line with a any slope other than zero (fat) or infinite (vertical), it indicates that the straight line is a hockey stick. Even with white noise added, so long as the Signal to Noise ratio does not excede one, the line will probably (>50% chance) be given a HSI greater than 1, the conventional benchmark used by McIntyre to indicate something is a hockey stick.
Here is an example of a straight line "hockey stick":
In this case, the HSI is less than that for MBH 98 or 99, but the mean is of the 132 realizations is greater. That is, according to the M&M05 HSI, a straight line with white noise and a S/N ratio of 1.25 or more is more like a hockey stick than are MBH98 and 99.
This fact does not depend in any way on the slope (provided it is neither flat nor vertical). Negative slopes will yield negative HSI's, but M&M05 (correctly) regard negative HSI's as equivalent to positive values in that the MBH98 reconstruction method flips the sign on proxies if that yields a better fit to the temperature data (which is not an error).
From this it follows that the HSI developed by M&M cannot consistently distinguish between a straight line and a hockey stick shape. I suspect there are other shapes that it cannot distinguish either, but for now we need only consider the straight line. That means that, from the M&M05 HSI, we are unable to determine whether or not half of the 10,000 pseudo proxies are distinguishable from a straight line. Nor, using that index, are we able to distinguish MBH98 from a straight line. That means that as a statistical test of the tendency of short centered PCA to generate shapes similar to that of MBH98, the test is totally without power. It tells you absolutely nothing.
The total statistical power of the first part of M&M05, it turns out, comes from the visual comparison between MBH98 (fig 2) and the MBH first Principle Component of the North American Tree Ring Network (fig 3). That's it. And as everybody should no, eyeball Mark 1 has very little statistical power as well.
Not being content with finding a flaw with M&M05 statistical test, I looked to see if they could have done better. In the end I developed five variant Hockey Stick Indexes (vHSI) that were superior as a statistical test of a hockey stick shape (although not necessarilly under all circumstances). These were,
- The ratio of the standard deviation of the calibration period relative to the calibration period (1902-1980) relative to the standard deviation of the non-calibration period. This tests for flatness in the "handle" vs noisiness or a high relative slope in the "blade". Like the M&M HSI, it will only work well when the "handle" is flat, but will work better in that circumstance.
- The angle formed by the slope in the calibration period relative to the angle of the slope of the non-calibration period if the two are displaced to intersect at the first year of the calibration period. This tests merely for the angle between "blade" and "shaft" and will work well regardless of orientation . It will not tell you how flat the "handle" is, however, and so can be confused by "hockey sticks" with very crooked "handles".
- The closeness of the largest inflection point in the period 1850-1900 to the inflection start of the calibration period. The inflection point is defined as the start year of the largest 50 year trend starting in that period. The index is defined as the difference between the inflection point and 1850 divided by the square root of the difference beween the start of the calibration period and 1850. (not shown)
- The angle formed by the slope to 1850 and the fifty year trend from the inflection point. This again works best with a flat "handle".
- The inflection point angle weighted by the inflection point index.
Here are the results, comparing MBH 98 and 99 to the cherry picked top 100 HSI pseudoproxies from M&M05:
The twelve point mean is the average of the 12 pseudoproxies used by McInyre (and Wegman) in various illustrations M&M's results. MBH98 PC1 is the first principle component of the reconstruction of 1450-1400 temperatures from MBH98.
As can be seen, MBH98 and 99 are statistically distinguishable from even the cherry picked top 1% of pseudoproxies, with differences in index values never less than 2 standard deviations above the mean, and for one index nearly 10 standard deviations above the mean. MBH98 PC1 does not perform as well, but still can be statistically distinguished from the cherry picked top 1% in 3 out of the five tests. (The Inflection point vHSI shows MBH98 PC1 to be just over two standard deviations above the mean.)
This is still a work in progress. I think I need to improve my vHSIs by making comparisons with the instrumental record rather than the calibration period, and a combination of angle based and standard deviation based vHSI would probably be superior. Further, I should make comparisons with the first principle component of the North American Tree Ring data base.
Never the less, even at this stage the results show that you can devise variant Hockey Stick Indexes that are better able to determine a hockey stick shape, and that if you use those vHSIs MBH98 and 99 stand out as easily statistically distinguishable from PC1s generated from red noise using short centered PCA. Further, those vHSIs are demonstrably superior to that of M&M05 in that at least none of them will mistake a straight line for a hockey stick (except the pure inversion method, which is why it was not shown ;)) So not only did M&M05 use a test with no statistical power, without validating the test; but alternative tests exist which would have refuted their thesis.
The take home is that the first part of M&M05 is simply scientific garbage. It has no scientific merit whatsoever.
When I get around to it, I am going to see if I can develop even better vHSIs, but probably will wait at least till I have a copy of the NOAMER PC1, and ideally until I (or a colaborator) can generate a full set of pseudoproxies without the cherry picks for statistical comparisons. (Help with either would be appreciated.)
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Synapsid at 08:55 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
For all,
When someone like Paul posts and says "I'm not a scientist" why overlook two fine resources on the Home Page? Refer the person to The Big Picture, and to the thermometer/most-used denier arguments, to start. If the person asks you to show them the science, well there it is.
Moderator Response:[TD] My favorite is The New Abridged Skeptical Science Quick Reference Guide.
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Ken in Oz at 07:24 AM on 4 October 2014How did the UK grid respond to losing a few nuclear reactors?
Ed, when the sun is shining and wind is blowing and the wholesale electricity price is low as a consequence, why wouldn't the market buy those megawatts ahead of more expensive nuclear's? And if nuclear is sold at below cost during such periods, how can it not increase the prices they need to charge outside them?
We are passing a tipping point, where wind and solar are being installed because they are cheaper than alternatives, not because they are propped by subsidy and new installs globally now rival that of coal and exceed that of nuclear. They are not yet - but are nearing - scales where their intermittency is a serious issue, but that's an issue at least as much for obsolete plant that has to fall into the role of intermittent backup and lose profitability in the process as it is for wind and solar; in the transition to low emissions that shift of role needs to be recognised and accommodated as an interim step.
It may seem to be a case of jumping blind, to commit to low emissions when energy storage has a lot of development still to do and redundancy of low emissions supply is still inadequate - and known low emissions plant like nuclear is struggling to establish a major place in the mix - but we cannot afford a failure to commit to low emissions by insisting only perfect and whole solutions must be there first.
The failures of policy - such as absence of carbon pricing - are principally failures of politics to achieve unanimity of purpose. More a failure of politics in my opinion than failures of technologies. I don't know to what extent political declarations of commitment to low emissions in the UK, Germany and elsewhere - where there is the outward appearance of such unanimity - continue to mask strong determination to doubt, deny obstruct and delay but I would be very surprised if that were not the case. Certainly such politicking, whether overt or covert, undermines the goal of low emissions by any means and continues to inhibit commitment to measures like adequate carbon pricing that are not specific to particular technologies
Such opposition represent a double hit for nuclear, which already suffers from serious PR problems exacerbated by small but dedicated and vocal groups of anti-nuclear activists. Politics as well as public sentiment is against it and, unlike wind and solar that can and will keep growing incrementally even in the presence of political opposition, it's long lead times and high initial investments, and need to overcome popular resistance make that unanimity of commitment to low emissions an absolute prerequisite. That the political players that most want to obstruct or delay on low emissions tend to be those that profess willingness to use nuclear is particularly damaging as it diverts many of the most influential voices in favour of nuclear towards the wholly incompatible goal of undermining unanimity in order to do as little as possible. Where anti-nuclear activism represents strength of opposition and hits from the front, obstructionist politics represents weakness of support and hits from behind.
I think that genuine unanimity of commitment is essential and will give a boost to nuclear but it can only add impetus to renewables as well - and they too have been held back from their full potential by failures of political will.
(PS I hope this has not exceeded the bounds for political commentary)
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Russ R. at 07:21 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Nice charts Rob P.
What happens when one looks at them with uncertainties included?
UAH:
HadCRUT4:
GISTEMP:
RSS:
Are any of the above significantly different from zero?
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - Russ, the data show that we cannot exclude warming up to 0.297°C over the period in question (GISS). Please read and understand what KR wrote being commenting any further - as dogged repetition of flawed ideas is a form of sloganeering and will attract censure.
[RH] Let's move any further discussion of this issue to this thread. And Russ, you're going to have to come up with something novel and interesting, that hasn't been debunked to death 1000 times before, to not get deleted as sloganeering. Forewarned.
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Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Russ R. - What's your null hypothesis if you are (as you imply) asserting that the trend has been zero? And is that null hypothesis rejected by the data? Remember that testing for significance is a one-sided test, and you need a null hypothesis.
Hint: 0.091 ±0.115 °C/decade (2σ) fails to reject null hypotheses up to 0.206 °C/decade. And the observed trend since 1979 (averaging the various estimates), a reasonable null hypothesis, is roughly 0.14 °C/decade, well within 2σ bounds, hence clearly is not rejected.
I am so tired of these 'pause' assertions utterly lacking in statistical significance, inseparable from noise.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - KR, the usefulness of rebuttals is that one doesn't have to keep repeating one's self over and over again - just link to the rebuttal. It also demonstrates to lurkers that the myth being repeated has not only been debunked, but is also a zombie myth. AFAIK we don't have a specific rebuttal for this (hint, hint).
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Stephen Baines at 06:49 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Russ's comments are equivalent to someone rolling a standard 6-sided die over and over, and then claiming all sides of the die are 6 because once in a while 12 comes up. It's a patently ridiculous argument and I'm guessing Russ knows it.
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DSL at 06:31 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
I use GISS because it gives better coverage of near surface temperature. Why use RSS TLT? After all, UAH and Had4 are also positive.
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DSL at 06:26 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Actually, Rob, Russ is not wrong. He's not making a claim. That's seems to be his standard MO--insinuation.
Moderator Response:[RH] Agreed. He's still going to have to contribute something or the drive-by posts are going to be treated the same as a "link only" post. We welcome RussR's contributions to a conversation, but it's not okay to post and run away from a conversation.
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Russ R. at 06:25 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
DSL,
Here. (217-month trend = +0.00C per decade). Is that zero?
RH.
I thought it would be best if I stick to presenting unadorned facts, and leave the commentary and arguments to others.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - What happens when one looks at the other global temperature data sets?
1. UAH - the other surface temperature series, aside from RSS, derived from measurements of the 'brightness' of oxygen molecules in the atmosphere:
2. Hadcrut4 surface temperature time series:
3. GISS global surface temperature.
4. And finally the RSS temperature time series, Russ R linked to:
One of these things is not like the others, and one of these these just doesn't belong (based on observations such as the increased frequency & severity of heat waves over the last decade). Can readers guess which one?
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DSL at 06:04 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Russ R. - is it zero? Can you use the uncertainty to claim "no surface warming in 217 months" using a simple linear trend? No. The uncertainty range includes zero. It also includes 0.2C.
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Russ R. at 05:58 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
DSL,
"Paul, you say "no warming" over the last 217 months. Show me. Don't link to somebody playing with Excel. Show me here (217-month trend = +0.09C per decade)."
With uncertainty that would be 0.091 ±0.115 °C/decade (2σ) which is not significantly different from zero.
Moderator Response:[RH] Russ, this drive-by single comment posting has to stop. If you're going to put forth a position you're going to have to stick around to defend it or accept that you're wrong.
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DSL at 05:53 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Paul, no need to debate a flurry of replies. One at a time would be just fine. You can take it at a liesurely pace. Keep in mind, though, that the next time you post, if it's not in response to the questions raised about your current posts, it might get deleted.
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paul11176 at 05:44 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Ok gentleman,
Im not ging to debate the flurry of relies. I can see your "all in" that the science is settled and you will gamely advocate for your beliefs. No problem there. Not really any problem anywhere 'cept maybe one or two derogatory comments but since I've been trounced with plenty on other sites already Im not thin skinned anymore.
At the top of the home page I appreciated the beginning disclosure. Discovering a web site thats forthright is always a treat. So a plus for the mod or web owner. Since the topic on this thread invovled Christians I popped in to get a feel for things. Its not me but I know some very cracker jack Christians. Learned men who are not convinced the science is settled. Anyway, I'll stop in once or twice a week just to nose around.
The Friday round up appeared to be more well rounded than when I check a few weeks ago. Back then I found some far left links like Thnk Progress etc... My 1st impression was more politics than science. Time will tell and didnt mean to get anyone in a twist.
All the best!
paul
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Composer99 at 05:40 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
I don't believe paul appreciates the irony of admitting, essentially, to being incapable of fairly evaluating the science behind AGW ("Since I'm not a scientist") - and backing his claims up with references to WattsUpWithThat to boot! - while demanding that Skeptical Science present "real" science (to him, personally, no less) and "root out" such riff-raff as Al Gore - and all that despite having manifestly failed to show where SkS - or climate science generally -has fallen short in the "real" science department, or failed to show why Al Gore is "our" problem to "root out" (or, for that matter, what he has said about AGW that is actually incorrect).
I, however, do.
I also appreciate the irony that paul demands that SkS present "real" science, rather "than quoting Bible versus [sic]", even though the only reference to the Bible in the OP is contained in the quote from the Cornwall Alliance. (I make no claim about the version of this article up at The Guardian.)
Rob P (inline mod response @19): Will that animation be added to the Skeptical Science gallery? It's fantastic.
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - It's from upcoming rebuttals of the so-called pause, which is otherwise known as in scientific circles as continued global warming. I may re-do it as that version is somewhat blurry.
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Stephen Baines at 04:51 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Paul,
I don't see how this post claims anything like what you say it does. It does not say Christians are by definition wrong. It says that some people who call themselves Christians are making factually wrong claims in the name of their religion.
Other people, who also call themselves Christian, believe their religion compells them to do otherwise with respect to climate change. Those people include the founder of this site, the prominent scientist quoted, and, frankly, a number of people I personally can claim as friends. Are you claiming they aren't Christians simply because of the accept the scientific consensus?
Other prominent scientists, like Alley and Emmanuel are republicans who would agree with your general concern about the size of government etc, but they also support the consensus on climate change. There are ooptions that require substantially less government meddling than others, which they would probably prefer. One can argue that wasting time dealing with the issue virtually guarantees that large scale government involvement will be required, so it isn't necessarily against conservative principles to accept climate change.
All of the factual scientific claims you have made are dealt with in the various posts on this site in depth and many times at several levels of expertise. None of them have anything to say about whether Christianity is "wrong" or "right." If you are interested in informing yourself, read them. If you are simply interested in maintaining the existence of some imagined batteline between science and religion, I would go elsewhere.
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DSL at 04:50 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Paul, one more thought:
You admit to being unfamiliar with the science. Thus, you have no basis for determining the quality of claims that allege to be science-based. You are forced to trust someone else for your opinion. Why Watts? If not science, then what is the basis upon which you make a decision to trust this analysis or that analysis?
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DSL at 04:30 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Paul, you say "no warming" over the last 217 months. Show me. Don't link to somebody playing with Excel. Show me here (217-month trend = +0.09C per decade). And reply on the appropriate thread.
A question for you: when energy arrives from the sun, where is most of it stored? Answer on the appropriate thread.
Last year's winter was cold? Eh? Yah, maybe in the US, which makes up all of 1.6% of the Earth surface. Not cold globally. Not even close.
You demand unpoliticized science. You refuse to produce the science that forms the basis of your opinion. You refuse to recognize science when presented to you. This is clearly a case of hypocrisy.
As for Gore, I haven't seen or read An Inconvenient Truth. I actually haven't read or seen any book or film on climate change, other than Chasing Ice.
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Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
paul - Carl Mears from RSS states in the link you provide:
Does this slow-down in the warming mean that the idea of anthropogenic global warming is no longer valid? The short answer is ‘no’. The denialists like to assume that the cause for the model/observation discrepancy is some kind of problem with the fundamental model physics, and they pooh-pooh any other sort of explanation. This leads them to conclude, very likely erroneously, that the long-term sensitivity of the climate is much less than is currently thought. [...] Without convincing evidence of model physics flaws (and I haven’t seen any), I would say that the possible causes described below need to be investigated and ruled out before we can pin the blame on fundamental modelling errors.
I don't think his article supports the doubt you seem to harbor, but simply to note that there are questions in measurement, in forcings, and internal variability (all part of recent science literature) which are entirely consistent with AGW.
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paul11176 at 03:21 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
You fellas here probably dont appreciate the WUWT link so heres a direct link.
http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures
Moderator Response:[Rob P] - Linking to the popular anti-science site WUWT in support of a claim inevitably undermines the point you're trying to make.
93% of global warming goes into the ocean, 3% into warming the land, and 3% into melting ice. 99% of global warming has carried on without missing a beat. The animation below is based on a figure from the latest IPCC report.
What about the remaining 1% that is heating the atmosphere? It has certainly slowed down a lot compared to the previous two decades, but is still warming.
Thus the pause is nothing but an oft-repeated fantasy.
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paul11176 at 03:18 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
@DSL,
Since Im not a scientist heres a couple of links about the polar ice caps melting.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/16/nature-proves-al-gore-wrong-again/http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/ice-free-arctic-forecasts/
DSL, some models have been proven faulty. Some models are tweaked by omitting some of the numbers. For example, I could show you a warming or cooling trend by cherry picking the years the planet warms or cools and Im not even a scientist.
no global warming for 18 years 1 month
The Great Pause is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for a little over half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/its-official-no-global-warming-for-18-years-1-month/
Blogs like this one would establish credibility to openly disavow politicians like Al Gore. Politics using scare tactics to openly advance agendas that have everything to do with money and nothing to do with saving the planet have effectively ruined any and all good faith in the sciences. Many people like me simply do not believe the climate change agenda.
It really irritates me to see blogs like this wanting to win the hearts and minds of Christians by telling them their religion is make believe.
When your minds are already made up about Christians how can you present yourself in good faith?
As for believing the "greenhouse effect" theory I cant really say I do or don't. What I know for sure is that the polar bears are doing just fine, the polar ice caps are doing just fine and last years winter was one of the coldest on record.
I think you guys need to rethink your approach to climate change. Theres been to many glitches along the way and blogs, such as Skeptical Science, never seem to root out the riff raff, such as Al Gore, among the rank and file. It is jaw dropping that he showed his face at the climate change march.
So, spare me the Psalm references and stick to science.
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ubrew12 at 03:10 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
paul@14: "Its been several years and predictions that the polar ice caps would be melted by now has not come true" So is that where you set the bar? If Arctic summer sea ice disappears you'll be convinced? Why are you not satisfied with the dramatic reductions in that ice of the last 30 years? I get it: you're suspicious. Permit me the same skepticism: I rather think that when (not if) the Arctic summer sea ice disappears, you'll have another hurdle all set up before you can possibly drop your objection.
paul@12 said "I am a Christian". So is the founder of this web site. A quote: "The second reason is my faith. I'm a Christian and find myself strongly challenged by passages in the Bible like Amos 5 and Matthew 25. I believe in a God who has a heart for the poor and expects Christians to feel the same way... the poorest, most vulnerable countries will be... those hardest hit... Drought will devastate low-latitude countries. Rising sea levels will create havoc on low lying countries..."
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Paul D at 02:58 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
paul@14
"The issue has been hijacked by politics to further government power and control"
Surely that is a political or an ideological view?
If you don't want government to be involved in CO2 emissions reduction, then you need to present alternatives that would produce the equivalent outcome of substantial CO2 emissions reduction.I personally think that the science is correct and all political parties (in whatever country) have to fit CO2 reduction into their ideology and policy making. I am not interested in religion or political ideology when it comes to CO2 reduction and environmental matters.
The rest of your comment is either 'trolling' or misinformed.
Assuming it is misinformed then you need to read material on this web site, which ironically is what your original comment is about. So why aren't you reading? -
DSL at 02:28 AM on 4 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Paul: "Its been several years and predictions that the polar ice caps would be melted by now has not come true"
Do you have a source for such an outrageous claim? Model projections for Arctic sea ice loss have the current level of ice not occurring for another fifty years. That's right: models have severely underestimated ice loss. Land ice in Antarctica is in rapid decline. Antarctic sea ice is complicated: stable temps and warming Southern Ocean, but ice growth.
Paul: "facts like the global temps have not been warming are coming home to roost."
Pardon me? Where has global temp not been warming? The surface is certainly warming. The oceans are certainly warming. What temp measurement are you looking at? Or are you simply repeating what others have told you?
Paul: "Malighning peoples faith will get you nowhere fast."
True enough.
Paul: "Settled science as it turns out may not be so settled after all."
Do you accept the theory of the greenhouse effect?
Paul: "Present to me the hard evidence and not some quack theory so researchers can obtain tax payer grants at will."
Tell me what you want evidence for--precisely.
Focusing directly on peoples faith is not the same as presenting facts.
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MA Rodger at 00:20 AM on 4 October 2014Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
Matthew L @190.
This NOAA-ESRL site might be the sort of thing you're looking for.
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paul11176 at 23:40 PM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
@DSL
The issue has been hijacked by politics to further government power and control. Its been several years and predictions that the polar ice caps would be melted by now has not come true and facts like the global temps have not been warming are coming home to roost. Malighning peoples faith will get you nowhere fast. Settled science as it turns out may not be so settled after all.
Present to me the hard evidence and not some quack theory so researchers can obtain tax payer grants at will.
Focusing directly on peoples faith is not the same as presenting facts.
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DSL at 23:21 PM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Paul, rapid climate change is only indirectly a "clean air and water" issue. I know at least 30 "Christians" among my extended friends and family who don't accept the diagnosis of a crisis. Not a one can explain what they claim isn't happening. Instead, they say things like "We're too insignificant" and "God wouldn't let this happen."
Out of curiosity, what are your reasons for remaining unconvinced?
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paul11176 at 22:30 PM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
I am a Christian, unconvinced of the global warming crisis. Blogs such as this one would fare better presenting real science and refuting politicians involvement rather than quoting Bible versus.
To the best of my knowledge Christians like clean air and water just like everybody else.
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Matthew L at 19:37 PM on 3 October 2014Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
I would be grateful if somebody could give a link to a source of data on long term absolute and relative humidity levels for the atmosphere as a whole. I am struggling to find such a source (if there actually is one). Has anybody done any empirical work on the relationship between past temperature changes and changes in humidity? Thanks.
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ed leaver at 15:20 PM on 3 October 2014How did the UK grid respond to losing a few nuclear reactors?
Ken, I did specifically say "in absense of carbon tax." The reality is external costs remain external, and coal continues to be developed. One way or another that must change. Earlier in the thread I showed a state-of-the-art wind+CAES storage project that had capital cost twice that of coal. I didn't do a complete LCOE comparison, but do keep in mind the southern Wyoming wind source is also home to the world's cheapest coal. However, wind and storage are mandated by California's RES, so in this case it doesn't matter. But fossil fuels aside, why should nuclear ever be forced into intermittency? Not that it can't be, or isn't. Because it is, and to our mutual detriment. Rather, why should it?
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Ken in Oz at 14:32 PM on 3 October 2014How did the UK grid respond to losing a few nuclear reactors?
Ed Leaver, a straight reading of mainstream climate science tells us that no nation can afford development built upon the use of coal; the permanent and irreversible climate consequences and costs make it something worse than mere uneconomical. Even more so when a nation taking that course is in fact many nations. It's a failure of policy of the developed nations that they are still encouraging and financing development elsewhere based on coal.
"Not more expensive than coal" as the limiting constraint on a transition to low emissions is a dangerous and irresponsible and wholly artificial one that arises from failure to appropriately cost the climate consequences and price carbon dioxide emissions accordingly.
Periodically and intermittently wind and solar have only recently become cheaper than coal - the full implications of that are yet to be appreciated. Projections based on assumptions of their excessively high costs - and for energy storage with them - look likely to be rewritten again and again. Along the way fossil fuels - and nuclear - will be forced into intermittency. This should have been foreseen but the assumption was that neither wind nor solar could ever make a significant contribution to energy supply at a competitive price - and that has now been shown to be false.
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PhilippeChantreau at 13:53 PM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
About Legates, I'd add that he was involved in having the Soon-Baliunas fiasco paper published. He later "published" a more tedious version in Energy and Environment, with the Idsos (speaks volumes).
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ed leaver at 13:29 PM on 3 October 2014How did the UK grid respond to losing a few nuclear reactors?
Michael,
I assume you meant "loan guarantee". You don't build nothing without loans. My point was that Federal guarantees are not free, SCE&G thought them too expensive, and took on higher-interest debt rather than pay for them. A loan guarantee is not a subsidy on a good loan. Not in the same sense as a RES, grid priority, or Production Tax Credit. Would you like to forgo any of these? How do they affect "free-market financing?"
Yes, it is indeed a regulated market that allows Southern and SCE&G to gouge their present customers for a benefit (long term low and stable electric prices) that will acrue mainly upon future customers long after the current gougees are dead. At least present customers are represented by their respective PUCs and have some say in the matter. Elsewhere, it also are regulated market that dictate RES and NM and PTCs that require utilities to gouge present customers for needlessly expensive energy whose cost will only rise with the future price of gas. I mean, it's impossible to trust anything...
Nevermind. I do thank you for taking time to read the Thomson Paper. I am well aware of their "of course we can run our econ models with whatever constraints you wish" reminder. My point is they didn't, though I too wish they had included more details than appeared in that particular article, and in particular had directly compared costs both with and without nuclear. But its what I could find at the time. However, under their assumptions nuclear <b>is</b> highly competitive, at least toward the higher-emissions end of the timeline, and at least compared with the total system cost of acheiving the same carbon reductions without nuclear. And given construction latencies, one does need plan in advance to get there.
Most important, though, is that the Thomson study and the U.K. demonstration both illustrate integrated systems solutions that directly address the over-riding question: "How do we most economically obtain the necessary carbon reductions at minimum cost?" — and don't attempt to hide behind ideological preconceptions to answer something else.
And that is where my definition of "economic" appears to differ (somewhat) from your own. Like many others, you apparently look at the short-term marginal cost of wind in today's low-penetration market with plentiful gas, see that cost is wonderfully low, and think that means anything meaningful in a future high penetration, low emissions world were gas must become much, much more expensive. I included the U.K. and Thomson figures in a modest attempt to convince you otherwise.
Perhaps "convince" is too strong a word. Give pause for thought, anyway.
And actually, today's low marginal cost of wind is meaningful. It means investors can invest in wind today, make a profit, and look at figures like those I cited and see their investment isn't going to blow away. Future demand for wind continues to grow, and that does mean something. What it doesn't mean is that wind+solar+biofuels alone are going to solve the world's carbon problem. They won't. In absense of carbon tax coal will always be cheaper, and the enemy is coal.
I am also aware that cost of raw wind has dropped rather nicely the past few years. These models all take into account projected future costs of all technologies, but of course such projections cannot be perfect. Like climate, we won't know the exact details until they become weather, by which time it will be too late.
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scaddenp at 12:45 PM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
CC - that cornwall Alliance stuff is seriously scary. We share the planet with people who think like this? I would like to think most Christians would run screaming in the other direction from a travesty like this. Let's hope some real theologians go after them as well.
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citizenschallenge at 12:04 PM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Dana does SkS's CC Reposting policy remain in place?
I just posted this,
Dana at SkepticalScience.com reports on the Cornwall Alliance
http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2014/10/dana-skepticalscience-cornwall-alliance.html
is it OK?
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citizenschallenge at 11:47 AM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
For what it's worth, I happen to have recently finished a point by point review of the Cornwall Alliances "The Biblical Perspective of Environmental Stewardship: Subduing and Ruling the Earth to the Glory of God and the Benefit of Our Neighbors" - that some might find interesting.
Beisner: Subduing and Ruling the Earth to the Glory of God - say what?
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2014/09/beisner-subduing-earth-glory-god.html
"The Cornwall Alliance tells us they speak for the God Almighty of time, creation and life - then they use their God as justification for rejecting hundreds of years worth of Earth observations and increasing climate knowledge. Curiously their God does happen to totally embrace the neo-Republican/libertarian "free" market ideal.
This Cornwall Alliance document reminded me of the beautiful babes and tough cowboys used to sell cigarette, only Beisner is using God to sell his attack and denial of solid scientific knowledge. Tragically such superficial media campaigns seem to be quite successful at wooing an all too apathetic public.
Even though rational communication with such people seems next to impossible it's important to take the time to point out their base misconceptions, misrepresentations and out'n out lies, even if only to let other's know that the truth is out there.
. . . "
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michael sweet at 11:00 AM on 3 October 2014How did the UK grid respond to losing a few nuclear reactors?
Ed,
Why should VC Summers get a loan when they are allowed to charge their customers billions of dollars in interest and construction costs years before any electricity is produced? Your claim of free market financing is simply false, they make the customers pay in advance. If they did not bill in advance they would never make a profit. It is a set up for the profit of the utility and everyone knows it. They are at least 18 months behind schedule (they currently do not have a public schedule so I cannot determine the actual delivery date). The Fitch rating Credit Desk has lowered the parent company credit rating to "negative" because of the delays.
Your UK link is broken. Without looking at it I can say that the USA has considerably more renewable resources than the UK. In addition, the UK is too small to balance wind and solar systems across the country so they will require a different system than the US.
In their conclusion Thomson state:
" However, there are many possible pathways in GCAM and other integrated assessment models that would also achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 Wm−2. For example, simulations with GCAM can reach 4.5 Wm−2 even if some technology options, such as CCS or nuclear power, are removed from consideration" (my emphasis)
In a brief read of the paper they do not discuss their energy production model. I note that electricity generation with CCS has not been demonstrated anywhere on a commercial scale and is a speculative technology. Wind and solar have plummeted in price since the paper was written while installation has skyrocketed. I doubt their model captured this change in price.
I have never seen a nuclear proponent suggest how Syria, Iraq and the rest of the Middle East and Africa can safely be powered using nuclear.
Other nuclear supporters on this thread blame the Japanese Government for the deaths caused by the Fukashima Nuclear disaster. That gives nuclear a very bad reputation. Multiple recent engineering fiascos with nuclear upgrades do not inspire confidence in the industry. Excuses from proponents are a dime a dozen.
Nuclear proponents blame environmentalists for their problems. The problem is that nuclear is not economic. Nuclear hopes that the five reactors currently being built will demonstrate they can compete with renewables. In 5 years we will see if they are successful.
I personally hope that they are successful since we need all the options we can get. The nuclear industry track record is terrible and they are currently way behind schedule on their builds. Wind and solar have gone down in price by close to 50%.
Nuclear proponents on this thread exaggerate the problems with wind (see Kieth at 16 on Dutch wind turbines). Keith leaves out the currently announced cost over-runs at nuclear plants being built and fails to mention they are all way behind schedule. Claims of free market financing fall over on superficial inspection. It is impossible to trust anything nuclear proponents say.
As Keith points out, Warren Buffett is investing in wind. Yesterday my local power company announced their first commercial solar power build (only a 2 megawatt pilot plant). Walmart is planning to put solar on their roofs. What more do I need to say?
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wili at 10:27 AM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
OK, somebody has to be the snarky jerk, so I'll be it this time:
"Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds"
Minds?? Are you sure there are any in there?
OK, I'll drop the snark now. But really, these are people that mostly believe the earth is about 6000 years old. Where can you really start in trying to engage in discussion of a fundamentally scientific issue in the face of such utter rejection of basic scientific facts?
I am asking in earnest as someone trying to teach a class that includes a GW theme, but I have students in the class who are completely ready to reject all science because, to quote, "It says in the Bible that GW can't happen." I have directed them to Hayhoe, but I admit to be a bit at a loss even where to start with such utter rejection of essentially all science that doesn't conform to their very narrow (supposedly literal) interpretation of scripture. Any ideas would be most welcome.
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scaddenp at 08:32 AM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
I'm often amused by US evangelicals claiming climate change impacts are God's punishment for things like gay marriage laws etc. A rather more obvious sin with biblical retribution would that of greed. Doesnt seem to get a mention despite US energy consumption per capita being among the highest in the western world, around twice that of UK. Maybe Cornwall alliance folk should spend more time reading prophets and gospel than genesis?
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Russ R. at 07:05 AM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
"As the product of infinitely wise design, omnipotent creation, and faithful sustaining (Genesis 1:1–31; 8:21–22), Earth is robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting."
Citing the Book of Genesis for anything relating to science is pretty much an automatic disqualifier.Great source of children's stories though.
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ed leaver at 06:41 AM on 3 October 2014How did the UK grid respond to losing a few nuclear reactors?
Michael Sweet:
Federal nuclear loan guarantees are not free, and are funded by fees paid by the grantees. After much negotiation Southern accepted a gaurantee for Vogtle, but they do pay for it. At VC Summers in South Carolina, SCE&G passed on the opportunity, and went completely with private finance. It was cheaper. The Federal energy loan guarantee program is available to "clean"coal and renewables as well. The program is not above criticism, but a gaurantee costs the government only if the grantee defaults on the terms. As you may recall, in 2011 solar panel fabricator Solyndra defaulted on $535 million.
Such are the risks of venture capital. Renewables get additional subsidies: wind, geothermal, and closed-loop biomass get a 2.3 cent/kWh Production Tax Credit, after-tax so effectively 3.3 cents. Rooftop solar gets net metering. Renewable Energy Standards gaurantee a captive market and insure the consumer picks up the tab for increased costs due to renewable generation. It was feared 80% of new wind projects would be cancelled if the PTC were not extended at the end of 2012.
More information at US Nuclear Power Policy. Times change. Nuclear does not enjoy the support it once did, and renewables are comparatively better off. It might be done better: if the goal is to increase wind and solar deployment, then net metering, PTC, and RES are fine. If the goal is long-term carbon reduction, they should be re-thought in favor of support mechanisms that might better effect that goal.
Please try to realise just what it will take to attain zero-carbon emissions from the electric sector. Prof. MacKay and UK Department of Energy and Climate Change recently hosted a public thought-experiment, wherein the participants were asked to optimize the kingdom's energy mix with goal of reducing total carbon emissions 80% by 2050. This is not an easy task, and DECC has developed an interactive online tool the public may use to gain appreciation for the difficulty. Participants in this particular exercise did rather well: 77% reduction. Not the hoped-for 80%, but what they could agree upon. Their final timeline looked something like this:
The online tool is here. Feel free to do better, but note the latency in nuclear build-out; advance planning is required. Of course the US is not the UK, and whatever we eventually come up with will be different. But not totally.
Admittedly, making predictions is hard. Particularly about the future. But such is our task. In 2011 Allison Thomson and her colleagues looked at the problem globally, which also has some merit. They sought cost-minimized global energy mixtures to match IPCC's four Representatitve Concentration Pathways. RPC 4.5 stabilizes end-of-century emissions at 4.5 W/m^2 radiative forcing and estimated 2.4 C temperature rise — scary, but better than RPC's 6.0 or 8.5. The authors' RPC 4.5 results:
Note that “other” includes non-dispatchable wind and solar; their fractional contribution is somewhat less than their nominal capacity factor. Also, again note the latency in nuclear build. These are cost-optimized mixtures. Certainly nuclear can be excluded, as is popular here in the United States. But our electricity will then cost more relative to economies that do advantage themselves of fission, and low electric cost is one of our main competitive factors.For that reason if we can't get this, or any, combination of reliable low-carbon energy sources lower in cost than that afforded by coal, coal is what developing economies will continue to burn. Just to better themselves. No one can afford to do otherwise.
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WheelsOC at 05:17 AM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
The link to the full Guardian post is missing.
Here's the link in the meantime for those that would like to follow through. -
Paul D at 04:58 AM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
Also isn't verse 22 of chapter 8 contradicted in other later books of the bible?
As well as having been contradicted throughout history. -
Paul D at 04:53 AM on 3 October 2014Global warming: a battle for evangelical Christian hearts and minds
When reading Genesis I don't see the terms:
"wise design"
"robust"
"resilient"
"self-regulating"
or "self-correcting" etc.Such words are just the ideology of the people reading the texts being projected on to them.
They want to see in those texts anything that will confirm their ideology. -
michael sweet at 03:10 AM on 3 October 2014How did the UK grid respond to losing a few nuclear reactors?
jmdesp,
If nuclear advocates have nothing better to offer than to blame the people they killed for their own deaths nuclear will never be safe enough to build. Appropriate risk analysis was done and evacuation was required. I have read many posts like yours over the past five years and have gone from being a supporter of nuclear to an opponent. I do not want to accept the risks you insist we must all take. Monday morning quarterbacks who now claim the evacuation was not necessary ensure that nuclear safety will not be sufficient to protect the public.
I was actually thinking of the Crystal River 4 plant where they spent $1.5 billiion on a new plant and then decided that it was enough for the ratepayers to pay for. They never applied for a permit to build. Thank you for reminding all of us about the other plant that was shut down early. A supporter of nuclear in this thread claimed 60 year design life when current plants are shutting down after much less than that.
You failed to mention that the San Onofree Nuclear in California was also shut down after a failed attempt to upgrade the steam generator. The engineering design on the new generator failed: that gives me a lot of confidence in the new nuclear designs. There is another plant in Florida that has significant premature wear.
Earlier in this thread a nuclear supporter claimed that private funding was obtained for the 5 US plants that the Federal Government has guaranted the loans on. Some free market. In Georgia they are also allowed to bill the customers for the interest on the loans before the plant is finished. Where are the wind generators we pay interest on before they are built? Oh wait, they are built so fast the interest is not needed to be paid in advance.
I will not address safety since nuclear is not economic anyway, but there are many square kilometers that are uninhabited because of nuclear "incorrect maintenence". Wind does not lay waste to the landscape.
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John Hartz at 02:55 AM on 3 October 2014Arctic sea ice has recovered
[Moderator's Comment] All: Three repsonses to jetfuel's nonsensical comment #59 is quite enough. Dog-piling is a prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
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DSL at 02:25 AM on 3 October 2014Arctic sea ice has recovered
jetfuel, you're cracking me up. You toss out 2012 but don't toss out 2007 for similar reasons. Why? Because if you did, you'd have no "recovery" claim. Instead, the long-term decline would be even more obvious, and 2013 would look like a normal year in that long-term trend. Your logic is identical to the "no warming since 1998" logic, and it's just as goofy.
I wonder: did you run the same analysis after 2007 and conclude that science had massively underestimated future sea ice loss and that the Arctic would be ice free at summer minimum within three years?
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