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Treesong2 at 12:16 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Tom Curtis @7, a nonclimatic comment on 'most (>50%) of recent warming':
For many people (like you), 'most' means 'more than half'. For many others (like me), it means 'the great majority'--with a fuzzy boundary, maybe around 70%, depending on what the most is most of. When the difference is pointed out, people from both sides are often incredulous that anyone could honestly hold to the other meaning. See http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=2516, which argues that experiments show even us great-majoritarians are more-than-halfers if we'd only admit it.
The point of which is to say that when talking about 'most of recent warming' (or anything else), it's good to add numbers to clarify, as you did. Kudos.
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Bert from Eltham at 11:57 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Q. Why do deniers on facing the consensus of 97% of scientists on the cause of Global Warming have a the same look as a puppy who has had his nose rubbed in his own excrement?
A. They both think you owe them an explanation about something incomprehensible to them both!
That is why both still prefer cherry picking red herrings. The denier will seize on any distraction and the puppy will simply chase its tail or any other suitable smelling bit.
Disclaimer. Rubbing you puppies nose in his own excrement will not work to house train it. It only makes you feel better.
Bert
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Tom Curtis at 11:23 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie A @7, first, I see no indication at the first link that the consensus is that humans cause "some" global warming.
Second, it is not possible to interpret the Cook et al survey consistently such that each rating category is unique (ie, so that papers do not fall into to rating categories) without interpreting "AGW" as being a theory that implies that at least 50% of recent warming (typically ascribed as the last 50 years, or since 1950) has an anthropogenic cause. As surveys should be interpreted as consistent if they can be, that means Cook et al find that 97% of papers discussing the issue endorse the theory that >50% of recent warming has been anthropogenic in origin.
Suggestions to the contrary are primarilly inspired by rhetorical needs rather than analysis. This is seen in that:
a) The initial response of so-called "skeptics" was to argue that papers had been incorrectly classified as endorsing the the consensus, when the papers involved all acknowledge that increasing CO2 will cause some warming. That initial response is inconsistent with the same "skeptics" later claims that to "endorse AGW" means just to endorse that increased CO2 will cause some warming; and
b) The response in self rating showed a higher tendency to rate the papers as "rejecting AGW", than the abstract ratings, thus showing the authors of "skeptical" papers interpreted the "rejection of AGW" as being consistent with accepting some warming from increased CO2.
It was only when initial rhetorical attacks on Cook et al failed to get traction that "skeptics" suddenly "discovered" that everybody endorses AGW. Interestingly, this same rhetorical tactic has been used on every prior paper showing a consensus in support of AGW.
So, in answer to your final question, the proportion of climate scienctists who agree with the claim that most (>50%) of recent warming has an anthropogenic cause is almost certainly >90%, and probably greater than 96%. We know this not just from Cook et al, but from a variety of other studies examining the consensus.
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michael sweet at 11:00 AM on 10 September 2013Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
Doug,
Your post is typical of deniers who slander working scientists. Dr. Hansen received his PhD working on the atmosphere of Venus. Perhaps you can suggest how to learn better about atmospheres than to study atmospheres?
Dr. Pachauri has also been involved in Climate Change study at the top levels of science for decades. Both of these men have dedicated decades to working on Climate Change and have long lists of published papers on the topic. You will be better received on WUWT where they believe BS like your post.
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dadown at 10:41 AM on 10 September 2013Arctic sea ice has recovered
It will be intersting to see if the climate models can explain thr 60% growth in artic ice this summer:
Moderator Response:[DB] Debunked here.
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Charlie A at 08:28 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
What _exactly_ is the 97% consensus that is agreed upon? The first link in this article it appears that the consensus is simply that humans cause _some_ warming -- not quantified, and definitely not explicitly greater than 1/2 of observed warming.
Does anybody know what level of consensus there is for the statement "Humans have caused greater than 1/2 of the observed warming since xxxxx date" ? (Pick any date).
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dana1981 at 08:05 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
chriskoz @1 - 0.08% is right. The difference is a factor of about 4 because while we had 65 abstracts in Category 1 (AGW > 50%), Monckton claims the number should have been in the 40s (and 10 abstracts were in Category 7, AGW < 50%).
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joeygoze9259 at 06:06 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Got it, thx. Follow on question - so then I assume the graph of Anthropogenic vs.Natural forcings only is going to look more like graph A vs. B?
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Doug Sorensen at 06:05 AM on 10 September 2013Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
StBarnabas wrote: "I am an astroparticle physicist by training and know how difficult real science is. I have great regard for my climate change colleagues and am bewildered by why scientists trained in other fields think they know the subject and can possibly use reputation to get amaturish work published."
Do you mean perhaps people like astrophysicist Dr. James Hansen? Or perhaps the Chairman of the IPCC, the economist Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri.
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Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
MThompson - Quite right, complete absorption at peak CO2 frequencies occurs with 10's of meters at sea level.
Those 10's of meters of gas then isotropically emit in the same spectra, a portion of which goes upwards to the next higher layer of gas, and so on, and so on, with the sum emission at each layer determined by atmospheric temperature. The effective emission altitude for CO2 is where the air (and GHGs) are thin enough that ~50% of the radiation emitted upwards makes it to space without absorption. And according to the atmospheric lapse rate, that is a cooler layer of air, emitting less radiation than warmer surface air.
The overall effect of the many emission/absorption events and the lapse rate is that there is less radiation from effective emission altitudes than from the surface, a lower effective emissivity of the Earth to space in IR, and hence a higher Earth surface temperature required (by the Stefan-Boltzmann relationship) to emit the energy from incoming sunlight than there would be without the greenhouse gasses - that higher temperature being the greenhouse effect in action.
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Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
joeygoze - Because natural forcings have over time declined; in the absence of anthropogenic factors the Earth would have cooled over the last century.
In other words, without offsetting from natural cooling, we would have instead warmed by over 0.9C, rather than the observed 0.7C over that time, due to anthropogenic forcing.
Modelled Anthropogenic + Natural forcings vs. Natural forcings only [Source]
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MThompson at 04:19 AM on 10 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
Phil, regarding comment 100:
Thanks for suggesting another course of reading and discussion. I looked over the article and a few of the comments in the myth: Is the CO2 effect saturated? as you suggested. That article is listed as "intermediate." I’m still working on the basics, and would like to continue to develop my understanding in the current discussion: Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere. In school they taught us to break down complex ideas into components, and then assemble the big picture. Once I have a good visualization of the interaction of the earth’s blackbody radiation and the greenhouse effect, I plan to work my way up to the other source of photons in the wavelength range that is related to v2 CO2 pumping.
So far, it seems to me that the earth’s blackbody radiation in the range 13-18 microns (770 to 560 cm-1) is indeed trapped by CO2 and doesn't get radiated to space, but does in fact cause warming by the v2 CO2*->CO2 transition through collisions with atmospheric gases. If I don’t quite have it right yet, then hopefully someone will help me improve my understanding.
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joeygoze9259 at 04:01 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Silly question? In figure 1, how is the % contribution from Humans higher than 100%? Not sure I am reading that graph right.
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Arctic Sea Ice Hockey Stick: Melt Unprecedented in Last 1,450 years
dvaytw - Kinnard et al 2011 (paper here) used ice cores, lake and ocean sediment cores, tree rings, and documentary evidence from the last 200 years.
The various proxies describing temperature, water vapor, ion and methane-sulphonate concentrations (tied to sea ice openness/windiness). etc., were calibrated against historic documented ice cover, and from that used to infer ice cover over the last 1450 years.
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Kevin C at 01:34 AM on 10 September 2013The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
OK, there's a problem is estimating separate response functions from the different forcings. We basically have three types of forcing - anrthopogenic, solar and volcanic.
The solar response is probably small. The BEST attribution paper puts it at 0.03C solar cycle peak to peak, which is smaller than Hansen and much smaller than F&R. However the result is strongly dependent on the duration of the response function. That means that for the moment it's not a very good basis for deducing the response function.
The anthropogenic forcing is the biggest part of the signal. However it shows a roughly exponential increase over time. One problem in deconvoluting the temperature response from the forcings is that the deconvolution is singular for some classes of signal - linear and exponential functions included. We can't determine the shape of the response function from the anthropogenic response, because there are an infinite number of equally good solutions.
That leaves the volcanic signal (or potentially a combination of the three signals). Now if the volcanic response has a dip in the second decade due to reduced heat release through ENSO, then that should be at least partly mitigated by including the ENSO term in the model (maybe only partially because the actuall response might be non-linear, e.g. current ENSO times heat stored last decade). If non-linearity is not an issue, including the ENSO term would avoid the need to change the shape of the response function.
Further, I'm not sure I see a reason (unless we get into non-geographically-uniform forcings) for ENSO heat storage to respond differently to volcanoes than to other forcings.
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dvaytw at 01:02 AM on 10 September 2013Arctic Sea Ice Hockey Stick: Melt Unprecedented in Last 1,450 years
Hey fellas - in the Nature article, the abstract says:
"Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice..."Can anyone explain to me in simple language what that basically entails?
Also, I've asked before and so far still haven't heard an answer: is there a way to set the thread so I'll be emailed a notification if there's a response?
(Mod - please feel free to answer and delete this part of the post!)Moderator Response:[DB] "is there a way to set the thread so I'll be emailed a notification if there's a response?"
Not at the present time, sorry.
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StBarnabas at 22:10 PM on 9 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Agreed
I'm surprised ayone takes Monkton seriously given his track record. For anone who hasn't seen Potholer54 (Peter Hadfield's) excellent YouTube series on Monkton Monkton Bunkum Part 1 and following part 2 to 5 etc. I would strongly recommend as a masterclass in how to demolish a climate change "Skeptic."
Chriskoz I think you are right about this being Monkton's first peer reviewed journal.
Sean
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chriskoz at 19:46 PM on 9 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Indeed, that shameful article in Science & Education (I'm not afraid to use such epithet given the fundamental statistical error they've apear to have made) is co-othored by Monckton himself. I think this is technically the first peer reviewed article by Monckton because I don't know of anything to his credit, please correct me if I'm wrong.
Minor glitch, Dana. Given Monckton's conclusion, that "the consensus is not 97%, but rather 0.3%", then it appears to be a typo in this sentence:
...based on Monckton's logic, only 0.08% of abstracts reject human-caused global warming.
The two numbers, suggesting the consensus set is just 4 times larger than the rejection set, do not make sense. I would rather expect the "rejection rate" to be 0.008% in this context.
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Phil at 19:41 PM on 9 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
MThomson,
you appear to inching toward this myth. If you are, you should take the conversation to that thread.
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Richard Lawson at 18:52 PM on 9 September 2013Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
Klaus @ 65, I think yet the answer to your questions 1 and 2 is to be found in the Sea Surface Temperature. This map of SST shows that the hurricanes appear, as expected, in the warmest areas :
Moderator Response:[DB] Reduced image width to 450. Click on image for larger version.
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tcflood at 07:55 AM on 9 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
MThompson at 98:
You are now getting into more detail than I have, but a few tens of meters is exactly the kind of distance that I have heard or seen mentioned many times.
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Leland Palmer at 05:59 AM on 9 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Two other probable massive methane releases from the oceanic methane hydrates- the Toarcian and Aptian oceanic anoxic events, of 180 and 120 million years ago:
Our analyses support the idea that both the Early Toarcian and Early Aptian isotopic curves were indicative of large episodic methane releases (5000 and 3000 Gt respectively) promoting warm ‘greenhouse’ conditions in the Mesozoic.
Massive methane release can casuse both ocean acidification and oceanic anoxia, according to numerous authors.
This hard scientific isotope ratio evidence of past probable methane releases from the hydrates cannot be safely ignored.
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spoonieduck at 04:43 AM on 9 September 2013There is no consensus
MA Rodger et al,
You are correct in assuming that my objection to the word "consensus" is individual and, even to me, my belaboring of the subject quickly becomes tedious.
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Leland Palmer at 03:40 AM on 9 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Here's another carbon isotope excursion, corresponding to the release of several trillion tons of carbon from the methane hydrates, from still another mass extinction hyperthermal event- the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM):
This one charts the C13/C12 isotope ratios in individual foraminifera, across the PETM event, and simultaneously charts the O18/O16 ratios, reflecting changes in ocean temperature.
The authors say the event was "geologically instantaneous". Other high resolution geological strata from Chinese formations calculate the duration of this first large probable methane release at less than 200 years.
Geologically instantaneous and "less than 200 years" set an upper bound for the duration of the event, but no lower bound. From this evidence, it is impossible to set a lower bound for the duration of the event. From this evidence, the event could have taken place in one year, or 200- nobody knows.
These are similar carbon isotope signatures of probable methane releases, from several large mass extinction events. The End Permian was about 250 million years ago. The End Triassic was about 200 million years ago. The PETM was about 50 million years ago. Each one corresponds to the release of several trillion tons of carbon from the hydrates.
The hard scientific evidence of past carbon isotope excursions and associated mass extinctions cannot be safely ignored.
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Leland Palmer at 02:28 AM on 9 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Here's another apparent mass methane injection event- the End Triassic. The authors of this paper claim that this event is best explained by the injection of 12 trillion tons of carbon (16 trillion tons of methane) into the atmosphere by a release of methane from the oceanic methane hydrates:
Atmospheric Carbon Injection Linked to End-Triassic Mass Extinction
Notice again the large carbon isotope excursion on the left, and the disappearance or loss of diversity of fossil groups on the right.
The authors conclude:
The end-Triassic mass extinction (~201.4 million years ago), marked by terrestrial ecosystem turnover and up to ~50% loss in marine biodiversity, has been attributed to intensified volcanic activity during the break-up of Pangaea. Here, we present compound-specific carbon-isotope data of long-chain n-alkanes derived from waxes of land plants, showing a ~8.5 per mil negative excursion, coincident with the extinction interval. These data indicate strong carbon-13 depletion of the end-Triassic atmosphere, within only 10,000 to 20,000 years. The magnitude and rate of this carbon-cycle disruption can be explained by the injection of at least ~12 × 103
gigatons of isotopically depleted carbon as methane into the atmosphere. Concurrent vegetation changes reflect strong warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. Hence, end-Triassic events are robustly linked to methane-derived massive carbon release and associated climate change.Notice that the apparent amount of carbon injected, 12 trillion tons, is right in line with Dickens' estimate of worldwide methane hydrate inventory of 5 to 20 trillion tons of carbon- it makes Dicken's group estimates seem a little low, in fact.
Notice that the amount of carbon injected is several times that of Archer's estimate of roughly 0.7-1.2 trillion tons of carbon in the modern methane hydrates. So, Archer's estimates seem low, as do those of Milkov. By the way, Milkov worked for British Petroleum at the time he made his estimates - his original scientific paper acknowledges this.
But the End Triassic did not totally deplete the methane hydrates, very likely. Some modern hydrate deposits are very deep, and are not in high salt sediments. So, to me, this suggests that Klauda and Sandler's estimates of 74.4 trillion tons of carbon are likely closer to correct. Our recent series of ice ages have lowered ocean temperatures and expanded the methane hydrate stability zone.
From Gerald Dickens:
The total mass of carbon stored as CH4 in present-day marine gas hydrates has been estimated numerous times using different approaches as reviewed in several papers (Dickens, 2001b; Milkov, 2004; Archer, 2007). Prior to 2001, several
estimates converged on 10 000 Gt, and this “consensus mass” (Kvenvolden, 1993) was often cited in the literature. However, the convergence of estimates was fortuitous because different authors arrived at nearly the same mass but with widely varying assumptions; an appropriate range across the studies was 5000–20 000 Gt (Dickens, 2001b). In the last ten years, estimates have ranged from 500-2500 Gt (Milkov,
2004), ∼700–1200 Gt (Archer et al., 2009), and 4–995 Gt (Burwicz et al., 2011) to 74 400 Gt (Klauda and Sandler, 2005). The latter is almost assuredly too high (Archer, 2007). The others are probably too lowWe don't know how much methane is in the hydrates. The higher estimates are favored, in my opinion.
We don't know how rapidly methane will be released from the hydrates. But methane hydrates are a form of water ice- and ice melts when heated.
We know that some high salt deposits probably capable of releasing methane rapidly in response to temperature changes exist.
We know that a series of mass extinction events appear to be tied to massive methane releases, according to the carbon isotope ratio excursions.
We know that fossil fuel use generates greenhouse side effects that generate on the order of 100,000 times as much greenhouse heating as is received in useful heat of combustion.
These carbon isotope ratio excursions associated with several past mass extinctions are hard scientific evidence of past probable methane catastrophes, and cannot be safely ignored, in my opinion.
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MThompson at 02:17 AM on 9 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
tcflood from comments 96 and 97,
Thanks. The explanations that you have given are helping me a lot. Now I see that without CO2 the earth’s blackbody radiation in the range of 13-18 microns (770 to 560 cm-1) would be able to escape to space, instead of pumping the v2 CO2* state and quickly distribute the energy into the local atmospheric vicinity.
Digging into this a little more, I found a nice calculator online that shows the earth’s BB radiation in the bandwidth of interest is about 3x1022 photons per second per square meter. I estimate that near the earth’s surface there are about 1x1022 C02 molecules per cubic meter. I have not yet had time to delve into the photoabsorption cross-section of CO2, but I’d guess that a few tens of meters would be sufficient to absorb all the earth's photons in the wavelength band of interest. This guess of course assumes that the lifetime of v2 C02* is much shorter than one second.
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michael sweet at 20:48 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Spoonie,
The nations of the world go over the IPCC summary document word by word and agree with all of them (for the fourth IPCC report the Bush administration agreed with the executive summary). How could you possibly have a greater consensus than that? Consensus does not mean unanimous agreement, it means the great majority agree. In this case, unanimity of nations is required, which is beyond consensus.
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Stephen Ferguson at 19:16 PM on 8 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
DSL @ 7. You make a fair point on a scientific/technical background being no safeguard against climate denial. Indeed, as you point out, some of the most entrenched individuals come from such a background. However my point was about the institutional failings, not individual.
The BBC has an immense responsibility to inform the public, which it does fantastically well most of the time. However, as Bob Ward points out; BBC senior management does not get that, by giving news bulletin airtime to contrarians in the name of reflecting all views and opinions in society, it is misleading the public into believing that there is no scientific consensus about the causes and consequences of climate change.
Their misunderstanding of the import of science, and refusal to take the formally sought expert advice of an eminent scientist, is testament to the unscientific monoculture that exists in senior echelons of that organisation.
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MA Rodger at 18:39 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Rob Honeycutt @570.
Best not to ask for definitions from Spoonieduck. It is evident from what Spoonieduck says that the meaning of the word "consensus" is not the issue here as it is dismissed as being "nebulous." There is also the complain that it is misused which is perhaps an interesting idea given the word is apparently so ill-defined. Spoonieduck is evidntly hostile to its use, certainly with regard to AGW.
I would suggest it is better to ask Spoonieduck what is meant by "There is little "concord" and there definitely is no "harmony" (concerning AGW theory." I though I was contradicting this statement when I wrote @566 that folk were "singing off the same hymn sheet." Spoonieduck's undoubted objections to this 'singing' are likely not to do with the quality of the voices but rather the actual song being sung.
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grindupBaker at 17:29 PM on 8 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Typo. "observed slow-down in global temperature" S.B. "observed slow-down in global surface/air temperature". "Global warming" is an increase in OHC. Ice melt is ~1% or so. Fresh water warming is most of the ~9% residual. Surface/air temperature increase is (1) a symptom of special interest to land-based and shallow ocean-based fauna & flora (2) the physical necessary to balance and stop warming (3) a pretty good proxy measure when averaged over decades or longer.
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scaddenp at 15:53 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
The emphasis on scientific consensus (the broad agreement within researchers actually doing the research) is that is what should guide public policy. It might turn out later that the consensus was wrong but the right decision for policy makers is go with the consensus. When stakes are high it is plumb foolish to do otherwise. Would you agree that policy makers should be mobilising resources if science said 75% chance of devastating asteroid strike - or wait till you have certainty but its too late to do anything meaningful.?
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Rob Honeycutt at 15:39 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Spoonieduck... Perhaps you can share with us what you believe the word "consensus" means.
I've always understood it to mean "a general agreement." It doesn't mean that absolutely everyone has the exact understanding about an issue. I would suggest that research shows there is a "broad" consensus on nearly all the basic tennets of AGW.
Science is, by its very nature, battlesome since it is constantly operating at the boundarlies of our understanding. The fights are over what we don't yet know. And they tend to be fierce and highly intellectual battles that are well beyond anyone who doesn't have a deep education in the particular subject.
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DSL at 14:29 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Chuckle, "AGW folk" is more ambiguous than "consensus." How do you define "AGW folk"?
I'll tell you what a consensus is. It's achieved when science moves on, when science stops targeting the proposition for testing. Very rarely, and the probability weakens with each passing year, do major theories that have reached the consensus state end up dying or going through major revision.
Science has moved well beyond the fundamental theory of the greenhouse effect. Its existence is no longer being targeted for research. It is instead now fodder for STEM undergrads. The fine details are still being worked out, yes (radiative transfer is not a simple thing). Sure, there are the Gerlich & Tscheuschners of the world, who attempt to mathturbate the effect away, ignoring the multitude of direct surface observations (not surface temp -- downwelling longwave radiation from the atmosphere) that confirm modeled expectations. You can try to defend them if you wish, but their existence falsifies the consensus of evidence in favor of the greenhouse effect no more than the latest nutjob moon landing hoax claim falsifies the theory that humans have been to the moon. Again, without solid evidence and a coherent physical model, it's all lip-flapping and dancing with the general public, singing sweet nothings down the ear canals of those who have not the time, energy, training, means, and/or motivation to engage the actual science.
Is Cook et al. 2013 lip-flapping? Perhaps, but you won't find too many scientists disagreeing with the conslusions drawn. You can wheedle and whittle all day with Anthony Watts, but the 600k pound gorilla in the room is 1) that the basic theory is supported by all evidence and physics, and 2) that there is no alternative theory that is supported by all evidence and physics--not even close. And if the theory is the actuality, then global energy storage can only continue to rise in the absence of any major off-setting forcing.
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spoonieduck at 13:26 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
M A Rodger,
Good. I believe you understand that, while tight definitions are important, "consensus" is not a particularly tight concept. I believe the term "consensus" has been used and misused because most folks--not even climatologists--can be pinned right on the mark by it. The word is nebulous and, in my opinion, shouldn't be used in polite conversation.
Still, a lot of AGW folks, live and die by the word. but many likely never bothered to look it up in the dictionary. Still, Dan Bailey, is surely right. I need a few remedial classes in scientific....ah....consensus, and a little light reading wouldn't hurt, either.
And, DSL, your post is intelligent but slightly off topic [which I don't mind]. I believe that most climatologists do believe in the theory of enhanced greenhouse effect [who doesn't?] but I'd stay away from the word "consensus." I'd love to address the rest of your post but DB doesn't want me to veer from the true path.
Moderator Response:[JMH] You are skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition and sloganeering -- both of which are prohibited by the SkS Comment Policy. Please cease and desist or face the consequences.
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Daniel Bailey at 07:49 AM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Spoonie needs remedial classes on what a scientific consensus is. Perhaps some light reading of this post will help:
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:45 AM on 8 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Bill BillEverett @ 6. I agree that the "energy level of our planet" is a main issue of the science of our planet's climate.
The energy level of our planet is simply the balancing of "internal energy generation plus energy entering our planet's system" with the "rate of loss of energy from our planet's system". Humans are changing that balance toward a higher energy level by increasing the ability of our planet to retain energy that enters our planet's system.
The tracking of the change can be done through a variety of measurements of different observable aspects of our planet's system. And it is true that the "total energy change" is important to understand. However, it is the energy at the surface that matters most to the "climate and weather events" we experience. That is why the global average surface temperature is important to monitor even though it fluctuates significantly and is not an accurate measure of the "total energy of our planet".
This leads to a clarification of my previous reply to martin.
The "energy gathered in the oceans" will not substantially shift out of the oceans into the troposphere. However, the warmer ocean will likely have a warmer surface through the full range of ocean surface fluctuations like ENSO. If the magnitude of an ENSO condition is determined by the “temperature of the surface of the ocean” without any adjustment for the fact that the ocean is generally warmer then the next ocean current shift comparable to the 1997-98 El Nino will be noted as a “more significant or stronger El Nino” producing a correspondingly larger short-term bump in global average surface temperatures.
Another point is that the warmer ocean will lead to other changes that are separate from the “climate of the surface of our planet”, including the mentioned raising of ocean surface levels. And the impacts of the accumulation of CO2 in the oceans are additional changes that are separate from the climate impact.
The identification and improved understanding of these impacts resulting from the way the most fortunate humans obtain maximum short-term benefit leads to the inevitable “politics” related to this “scientific issue”.
The term “politics” can have many interpretations. I identify the “political aspect” of this “scientific issue” as “the need to fundamentally change all human activity to be truly sustainable on our one and only planet”. It needs to be possible for the entire human population to develop to live a decent life in a way that can be continued and improved by all humans forever. Any “claimed improvement” that is due to activity that is not sustainable is actually counter-productive and damaging. And increased understanding of subjects like climate impacts helps identify sustainable activity.
Industrial mass-consumption and waste is not sustainable but has developed significant popularity leading many to claim the system of human interaction that led to its development is the “best way for humans to behave and interact”. Only a limited number of people can enjoy the way of life of the current most fortunate. And even the limited number of current most fortunate cannot continue to live that way much longer, let alone indefinitely. It is simply not sustainable. However, many among the most fortunate, and many hoping to be among the most fortunate, do not care about how sustainable their pursuits are. That is what leads to politics or “deliberately deceptive pursuit of public support” related to this "scientific issue".
The way the science is presented is its best defense against attempted attacks on its credibility by those who do not want the subject to become better understood by more people. That is challenging in mass-consumerism societies with growing numbers of people who want more for themselves and believe they can get all the information they need from any snippet of information from any website they choose, or a tweet or a news-bite. And critical thinking is not the answer when people abuse that to just be critical of someone who tells them something they don’t want to believe. Rational reasoned considerate thought is required. Caring to understand how to create a sustainable better future for all life on our one and only planet is required. Willingly reducing how much personal benefit you can obtain is required.
I appreciate the need and desire for scientists to stay focused on the science, but the politics related to an issue like this one are unavoidable.
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VictorVenema at 07:35 AM on 8 September 2013Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
Chris Brierley wrote: "I would point out though that publishers are at the mercy of their journals' editors - so they may sometimes by unwitting victims. Publishers don't (and shouldn't) make editorial decisions. Their main input is to select the editors in the first place."
A publisher cannot avoid all problems, but don't they set the rules? Shouldn't they have rules for who is the editor of a paper if the official (guest-)editor submits a paper himself? You need such rules so that the author cannot select his own reviewers and would know their names. You cannot expect good reviews without such rules.
One of the problems was a paper that had ended up in the wrong journal. They did promise to transfer the article, but up to now did not do so. Makes the impression they do not care about quality.
I am afraid, SkS will have to write something about this new journal more often.
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MA Rodger at 04:33 AM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
spoonieduck @564.
There are of course many who would say that science is always in flux so there can never be a scientific consensus. This is perhaps theoretically true, and perhaps more than theoretically. In a recent BBC radio interview Prof Joanna Haigh suggested that if you put a bunch of professors in a room together, the last thing they are going to do is agree with each other. As a profession, academics make their mark in the world by arguing with each other; arguing and winning. Thus Professor Haigh's point is that the AGW consensus is all the more powerful because the IPCC has actually managed to bash academia into singing off the same hymn sheet.
Using your dictionary definitions, you are probably correct to say there is no "solidarity of opinion" concerning AGW. Or at least it is fragile. Them professors will soon start arguing if you let them. But your dictionary also describes "collective judgement or belief" as being consensus. I think that has been achieved. AGW is real and it is bad, potentially exceedingly bad. And with the dissenting 3% entirely disagreeing with each other as to what the consensus has got wrong in reaching such a judgement, the "collective judgement" looks even better grounded.
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Leland Palmer at 04:03 AM on 8 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
The following figure is from Benton and Twichett's paper:
How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event
Notice the carbon isotope excursions illustrated at the left side of the figure- parallel carbon isotope excursions from both carbonate and organic carbon sources. Notice the extinction of numerous fossil species on the right- in fact roughly 60% of all families and 80% of all genera became extinct, during the End Permian. The timescale of the extinction, according to other sources, was about 80 thousand years- but the initial apparent release was much quicker- less than two thousand years, according to many sources.
As the authors point out:
Not only must this new source of 12C be identified, but
that source must also be capable of overwhelming normal
atmospheric feedback systems. The only option so far
identified is the methane released from gas hydrates
(Box 3), an idea that has been accepted with alacrity
[21,23,24,31].
The assumption is that initial global warming at the
PTr boundary, triggered by the huge Siberian eruptions,
melted frozen gas hydrate bodies, and massive volumes
of methane rich in 12C rose to the surface of the oceans
in huge bubbles. This vast input of methane into the
atmosphere caused more warming, which could have
melted further gas hydrate reservoirs. The process
continued in a positive feedback spiral that has been
termed the ‘runaway greenhouse’ phenomenon. Some
sort of threshold was probably reached, which was beyond
where the natural systems that normally reduce carbon
dioxide levels could operate effectively. The system
spiralled out of control, leading to the biggest crash in
the history of life.There are other carbon isotope excursions associated with mass extinction events, including the End Triassic, a couple of oceanic anoxic events in the Jurassic, and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. All of these correspond very well to the injection of several trillion tons of methane from the oceanic hydrates into the atmosphere. There are very large numbers of sudden isotope excursions, of course, corresponding to smaller methane releases, and smaller hyperthermal events- some of which appear to be timed to orbital cycles, and so to orbitally driven global warming.
This is hard scientific isotope evidence, coming from the rocks of many, many sites around the world, duplicated numerous times by numerous scientists.
This carbon isotope evidence of past apparent methane catastrophes cannot safely be ignored, in my opinion.
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DSL at 03:50 AM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Seriously spoonie? You don't think there's a consensus on the theory of the enhanced greenhouse effect? That's all AGW is, plus the proposition that humans are responsible for the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2. You realize that there are no comprehensive alternative theories and that the climate of the past cannot be explained without resorting to the greenhouse effect (and of course the GHE has been directly measured from surface).
Or is it that you're being imprecise in your complaint/claim? -
spoonieduck at 03:30 AM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
OK, DB, so I'll give it another shot. My comment is strictly on topic.
Definitions are important in any debate so I've gone directly to the source i.e. Random House Webster's College Dictionary [1997]:
"Consensus": 1. collective judgment or belief; solidarity of opinion. 2. general agreement or concord; harmony. [1850-55; < L, = consent[ire] to be in agreement, harmony
--Usage. The expression "consensus of opinion" is sometimes criticized as being redundant on the basis that "consensus" alone conveys the meaning. Although the redundancy argument is weakened if "consensus" is taken in its earlier and valid sense of "general agreement or concord," the criticism of this phrase has been so persistent that "consensus of opinion" occurs only infrequently in edited formal writing. The phrase "general consensus" is also objected to as redundant.
Now, Spoonie will comment. Using the strict definition of the word "consensus", it can certainly be argued that there is no consensus concerning AGW theory. There is no "solidarity of opinion". There is little "concord" and there definitely is no "harmony."
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tcflood at 03:18 AM on 8 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Regarding comments 5 and 7:
There's an interesting paper "The polarizing impact of scientific literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks" in Nature Climate Change, Vol 2, p 732, 2012 that is worth reading. Scientific literacy is no guarantee that someone will agree with you.
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DSL at 23:49 PM on 7 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Stephen, let's back off the generalizations re the humanities. Humanities majors don't have a lock on scientific non-expertise. I also imagine that many of the people at the BBC have backgrounds in communications/journalism, which are not considered part of the humanities. The problem is not a particular area of training. The problem is the driving interest that leads people to say "yes" instead of "no" when it comes to manufacturing debate.
Could scientific training help them say "no"? It couldn't hurt, but it's certainly no universal medicine. Witness Lindzen, Michaels, Spencer, Morner, Soon, et al. Witness the 32,000 signers of the OISM petition, all allegedly with some scientific training.
As I've pointed out elsewhere, the general public doesn't know the difference between Nature and Energy & Environment. One cannot appeal to scientific reason when speaking to the general public--at least not beyond a surface treatment. The arguments of the Watts, et al., align with political platforms, not with measures of scientific credibility, and so the ideas of Watts et al. spread to a much greater audience. The BBC receives that spread in return: pressure from the public and from policymakers.
There's no easy solution. Pushing critical thinking skills is important, of course, but I've seen the best of my student thinkers shortcut when thinking through an issue toward which he had little motivation. Climate science is definitely not an area of science that can be untangled in a day with a sharp mind. I frequently encounter people who are smart and understand the greenhouse effect but who argue from the equilibrium climate sensitivity that the IPCC has overestimated warming. These are engineers and scientists in other fields, not humanities majors, and it takes a really long time to get them to understand what is blazingly obvious to me (the oceans), and I am trained in the humanities (ABD right now).
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BillEverett at 20:10 PM on 7 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
It is unfortunate that our ordinary language doesn't match the facts of thermodynamics very well, in particular, that we don't have separate common words to distinguish between an increase of heat energy in a system and an increase of the temperature of the system. We consequently seem to have continuing confusion between an accelerating increase of heat in the global system and a varying increase of the temperatures of different parts of the system.
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Stephen Ferguson at 18:57 PM on 7 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Brilliant video.
The Radio 4 excerpt is typical of the BBC news reporting, which, dominated as it is by humanities graduates, is institutionally incapable of understanding the gigantic difference between evidence-based science and ideological-based propaganda.
They are arrogant in their ignorance too, even choosing to ignore their own internal review carried out in 2011 by Steve Jones, professor of genetics at University College London, on the accuracy and impartiality of the BBC’s science output
Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics puts it well.
“But it is clear that the BBC’s cadre of unscientific senior staff has simply ignored this aspect of the review by Professor Jones. In his evidence to the House of Commons select committee on science and technology on 17 July, David Jordan, director of editorial policy and standards at the BBC and a graduate of economics and politics from the University of Bristol, told MPs: "[Professor Jones] also made one recommendation which we didn’t take on board which is that we should regard climate science as settled in effect, and therefore that we shouldn’t hear from dissenting voices on the science of climate change and we didn’t agree with that because we think the BBC’s role is to reflect all views and opinions in society and we’ve continued to do that."
This is the result of erroneously believing that climate change is just a political issue, and based on a matter of opinion. But the laws of atmospheric physics are not a "point of view", and this wrong-headed approach by the BBC means it is sacrificing accuracy by being impartial between facts and fictions.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/giving-platform-climate-change-sceptics-bbc-misleading-public
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:24 AM on 7 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
martin,
The inter-relationship of the various things being measured and discussed is important to understand.
The oceans gathering heat will affect global average surface tempeature when the next strong El Nino event develops. The history of global average surface temperatures shows a statistically significant effect from the ENSO cycle. The global average is bumped up by El Nino and is bumped down by La Nina. ENSO is currently fairly neutral and the global average temperture is as high as values were during the big El Nino bump of 1997-98.
Therefore, anyone tracking the global average surface temperture should also include an adjustment for the phase and degree of the ENSO cycle that is influencing it. The other understood variable impacts on the global average surface temperature should also be included.
When that is done there is no recent significant slowing down or pause in the global average surface temperature values.
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Riduna at 09:56 AM on 7 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Interesting graphics. They show that none of the ocean warming in lower latitudes penetrates polar oceans - which is not the case and is misleading.
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John Hartz at 09:08 AM on 7 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
@Andy Skuce #54:
Nafeez Ahmed reponds to Michael Tobis in a lengthy article, Why the jury's still out on the risk of Arctic methane catastrophe, posted Sep 5 on his Guardian blog, Earth Insight.
Here's the lead paragraph of Ahmed's post.
About a week ago, climate scientist Michael Tobis wrote a critique of my 'Seven facts about the Arctic methane time bomb' following a twitter exchange with him and Chris Colose, author of an article at Skeptical Science arguing that the core scenario of a new Nature paper by Gail Whiteman et. al on the economic costs of Arctic climate change is extremely unlikely.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:01 AM on 7 September 2013Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
chriskoz,
Eventually the strength of the science will win out. However, this issue needs action now, not eventually. Those wishing to delay the reduction of their personal opportunity to get more benefit for themselves desperately need to be able to maintain support for their delay tactics, and claiming "a peer-reviewed paper said..." is highly sought. Their target audience is unlikely to ever learn about any eventual rebuittal.
Scientific research is constantly identifying problems being created by "profitable activities". Very coordinated political public relations deceptive marketing programs are abused by the profiteers as long as they can get away with them. The wealthier the profiteers are the more deceptive marketing they can create. Governments pursuing tax revenue have also joined in the deliberately deceptive marketing campaigns. And in this case, the need to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, they have an audience that is easy to impress. Many people desire more personal profit, pleasure, comfort and convenience any way they can justify getting away with.
The politics of this issue makes it desirable for "unsubstantiated claims" to be able to be published in "peer-reviewed journals". That is probably why some new "peer-reviewed journals" have popped up. They may be part of the deliberate deception action plan trying to delay changes that would genuinely lead to sustainable human activity.
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martin3818 at 08:49 AM on 7 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Will the heat stay locked away in the ocean's depths or will it all come back and global warming accelerate?
Is it possible that global warming can increase the probability of La niñas? A negative feedback?
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