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Comments 43601 to 43650:
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JasonB at 10:02 AM on 17 July 2013Sea level rise is exaggerated
DSL,
What Earthling is saying is that because starvation is bad for you, obesity must be good. Or because drought is bad, flooding must be good. This seems like the appropriate place for that argument.
If he's worried about ice ages, perhaps he should ponder the selfishness of squandering what could have been a useful geoengineering resource to future generations faced with an imminent glaciation; carefully burning fossil fuels to enhance the greenhouse effect just enough to maintain temperatures in the face of declining northern-hemisphere insolation due to the Milankovich cycles may well be the most cost-effective method for them to do so, if those resources are still around at the time.
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Tom Curtis at 09:56 AM on 17 July 2013Nils-Axel Mörner is Wrong About Sea Level Rise
Klaus @80, the lighthouse is located on the southern coast of the island, just north of the barren patch above the word "niveau" in your third picture. In that picture, it is covered by the icon for a photo, but you can still see some of the white cement(?) around its base.
If the description of the location of the photo is accurate, then it is clear it was not taken from the beach on the north side of the island adjacent to the lighthouse. That is because the photo is sighted along the beach, which clearly recedes leaving an expanse of water along the line of sight to the isthmus. Similar considerations indicate the photo was not taken along the shore of the bay that you indicate.
Rahter than either of those two locations, I suggest the photo was taken on the west end of the long white beach directly below the word "Minicoy" in your second photo. Indeed, it was probably taken pretty much directly below the second "i" (or the following two letters) of that word. As you will notice, the line of that beach directly aligns with the isthmus, which is clearly visible in the background of the first photograph.
The white sand at that location shows that wave action tends to deposit sand there, and given its location relative to currents, will not typically remove sand. It is a relatively sheltered location, however, and the rate of deposition is likely to be slow. Therefore I do not agree with your explanation of the photo.
To me, it is far more likely that the vine covered area on the beach is just that area that is most commonly wave swept only as a result of storm surge. Sea level in that area can vary by around 200 centimeters based on changes in large scale wind patterns (Indian Ocean Dipole) and by another 200 centimeters based on tidal action, but storm surge can lift sea level by one or two meters. Given such a low beach it would be extraordinary if occasional cyclones did not sweep that beach, and in doing so sweep the vine covered area of the beach. Such occasional storm surges would more than adequately explain the coverage of that area of the beach by rapid growing vines, but not by slow growing trees.
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Tom Curtis at 09:26 AM on 17 July 2013Patrick Michaels: Cato's Climate Expert Has History Of Getting It Wrong
Old Mole @43, I believe Anderegg et al, 2010 is the more appropriate study for comparison purposes. They show that mean expertise of climate scientists unconvinced by the evidence of AGW (UC) as measured by lifetime peer reviewed publications is 60, about half of that of those convinced by the evidence (CE) at 119 publications. Michaels appears to fall just below the mean for those who are UC, with around 50 peer reviewed publications over his lifetime, although he has far more non-peer reviewed publications for Cato or Heartland. Restricted to publications from 2007 forward, my search only reveals three publications. If he has indeed published four over that period, and a similar level of inaccuracy applies to the whole search it is certainly possible that he has more than fifty lifetime publications, and may have as many as one hundred. For comparison, here is a graph of the number of publications by researchers analyzed by Anderegg. Michaels falls in the second smalles category:
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Glenn Tamblyn at 09:14 AM on 17 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
old sage
You talk about "Co-operative movements due to thermal oscillation means that lattice waves involving many nuclei, phonons if you will, in collision have sufficient energy to cause photon energy level transitions in the electron bands"
In essence you are talking about Atomic spectrocopy. The absorption and emission of energy by an atom that involves transitions in that atoms internal energy levels.
This is not the basis of GH gas absorption/emission!
With GH gases we are dealing with Molecular Spectroscopy. The essential mechanism is as follows:
- Differing atoms have differing electro-negativities, differing tendencies to hold their elctrons closely or not. Oxygen for example is strongly elctro-negative, Hydrogen less so.
- When combined into molecules this can result in charge separations across a molecule, with one side of the molecule appearing to be negatively charged and the other positively so.
- Since the bonds holding the atoms together are not rigid, the individual atoms within a molecule are always jiggling around.
- So for molecules with a charge separation, this continual movement can result in a continuous movement of electrical charges.
- And based on Maxwells Eqns, moving electrical charges can generate EM Radiation(radiation). And conversely EM Radiation can cause a change in the movement of an electric charge (absorption)
Think of a ball on a spring, bouncing around. If you wack that ball with a stick the ball may end up bouncing more fiercely. You have trtansferred energy to the ball/spring system that is now stored as kinetic/potential energy of the ball/spring system.
Molecular absorption/radiation is about changes in the kinetic and potential energy of vibration of atoms within a molecule, the energy being trasnported into and out of the molecule based on Maxwells Eqns, not changes to the internal energy levels within the atoms.
It is an inter-atomic phenomenon, not intra-atomic.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 08:56 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
Stealth
A very important distinction needs to be made and clarified here. The models that are being referred that calculate the 5.35 ln(C/C0) result are not climate models! They are Radiative Transfer Codes; solutions to the equation of Radiative Transfer. As such what they do is, given a known state for a column of gas - temperature, pressure, humidity and composition profiles - they calculate the instantaneous radiative state at any point in that column. As such, the underlying maths is actually relatively simple. And they work from databases of very well established spectroscopic data. There are no assumptions or time based modelling or projections, they calculate a single snapshot.
A bit like engineering stress analysis programs, where they do the same simple calculations many times over for small cells to build up the composite picture. And their results are used in a wide range of applications, Climatology is only one of them. They are used in astronomy, military,, satellite communications modelling, a whole host of different domains. And their results have been extensively tested in the field and in the lab. -
Old Mole at 08:52 AM on 17 July 2013Patrick Michaels: Cato's Climate Expert Has History Of Getting It Wrong
I have a couple of problems with this article, although I am by no means a fan of Pat Michaels.
"Yet during that time [2007 to July 2011], Michaels only published four peer-reviewed climate articles. In comparison, 97 percent of the most actively publishing climate researchers agree that "most" of recent warming is manmade, and 84 percent of climate scientists say the public should be told to be worried or "very worried" about climate change. Despite this, USA TODAY, The Washington Post, and CNN all hosted or quoted Patrick Michaels in 2012."
I have no data to go on (although John Cook may well have, having just done a paper ) but based on no more than the SkS policy of citing learned articles as (Whozitz, 2013) and not (Whozitz, 2013a, b, and c) that one peer-reviewed article per year would put him in at least the upper quartile of those publishing, not the lower quartile as this paragraph rhetorically implies. I would be much more interested in how he got the sort of nonsense he persists in spouting in interviews past peer review.
Yes, he does get 40% of his funding from the fossil fuel industry, and yes, the Cato Institute was the Charles Koch Foundation for the first two years of its existence. You justifiably heap scorn on his claim that scientists support AGW because of "funding" (not money ... I think there is a difference) because that is an extraordinary claim for which he provides no evidence. But where is your evidence that Pat Michaels would be saying anything different if he did not receive any money from the fossil fuel industry? While not directly stated, the imputation is of venality on his part, and while I can believe there are some people who would be willing to prostitute themselves into saying anything in their client's interest, most of them go into law rather than science. Corelation is not evidence of causation.
Today is the 68th anniversary of the first field test of the biggest science project in history, in Los Alamos, New Mexico. I wish you all the best of luck keeping politics out of your science project ,,, at least much more than those scientists had.
Best wishes,
Mole
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:13 AM on 17 July 2013Nils-Axel Mörner is Wrong About Sea Level Rise
Well, Klaus, by now, I think it's pretty obvious. You demonstrated what real skepticism is like.On one side, a photo with no context and an authoritative assertion that has no backing. On the other side, the same photo, with all the context and numeric data. Who is right is as clear as the waters around the Maldives on a good day...
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scaddenp at 07:41 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
ps. After getting the full picture on humidity from the link indicated, I'd be interested in your assessment of tactics used by Climate4you to mislead.
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scaddenp at 07:32 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
Stealth - you say. "That cannot be true, otherwise people would not be building models as a way to attempt to arrive at these values."
I think you are confusing different models here. I dont think anyone is doing much on work on refining the 5.35 value from Myhre. As pointed out, the uncertainities are low and matches observation.By comparison global GCMs are trying to model what will be climate response to this deltaF. These models do have significant uncertainities resulting in varying estimates for climate sensitivity from 2-4.5. Dont confuse the difficulties with modelling climate response with the modelling required for calculating the forcings. Different models.
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MA Rodger at 07:27 AM on 17 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
old sage @231.
Do you mean this Stephan's Law? So what is j* = 5.76040e-8 x 300^4? Of course it could be the answer is 56 wm^-2, but bless my quintessense, the abacus has run out of beads!!
And one question. Does it matter a ha'p'eth that the receptor is at 0ºK? Your calculation is the Earthly emissions, not net Earthly emissions. And I'm still very worried by the bridge!!!
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PG_Bill at 07:22 AM on 17 July 2013Climate Change Denial now available as Kindle ebook
Kindle is an Amazon product and Amazon have been getting a lot of stick here in the UK recently, firstly for managing to avoid paying any tax at all, then also for being anti-union and squeezing the competition. Many people (including me) are boycotting them, which of course includes not buying a Kindle.
But good luck with the print edition. -
Klaus Flemløse at 07:20 AM on 17 July 2013Nils-Axel Mörner is Wrong About Sea Level Rise
I have tried to investigate the photo from Minicoy Island from 2010 taken by Nils-Finn Munch Petersen – se post 56.
Figure 6 One of the locals of Minicoy, Ali Manikfan, showing how much the island has grown. What was once the beach is now located well above the wave-washing zone, is becoming overgrown (just as many beaches in the Maldives; Fig. 4; Mo¨rner et al., 2004; Mo¨rner, 2007a,b) and invaded by land-snails (photo: N.F. Munch-Petersen, 1992). Link.
This photo has been used as documentation that the water level in the Maldives is decreasing. The photo was taken at the north side of the south-western part of the island close to the light tower looking towards the isthmus.
Here is a picture of Minicoy Island:
Here is a picture of the isthmus:
In the bay protected by the isthmus on the inside of the atoll, it is expected in most cases that new land will be created. Prof Nils-Axel Mörner and Nils-Finn Munch Petersen have used this as the proof of the decreasing sea level around the Maldives.
Using Google Earth, it appears that there is erosion on large parts of the island and a buildup of sand in at least two places as a result of coastal protection programs.
It would be pleased if someone could check my argument.
From Colorado University, I studied the water level around Minicoy Island. This is shown in the following figure:
This figure shows that the water level has increased by about 3.2 mm per year during the years 1990-2013.
So we have a paradox as Prof. Nils-Axel Mörner and Nils-Finn Munch Petersen claim that the water level is decreasing whereas sea level based on satellite measurements show the opposite. Who is right?
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Zen at 07:04 AM on 17 July 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #28A
Does anyone know if there is a chart showing the long term trend in extreme weather events and, if so, could you provide a link?. Thanks.
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PluviAL at 06:27 AM on 17 July 2013Global warming games - playing the man not the ball
I tried to go to SLDF to make a small contribution, but my virus scan tells me it is a dangerous site. Does anyone know what that is about?
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cormac at 06:17 AM on 17 July 2013They didn't change the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
The premise is wrong for a third reason. According to the OED, the term 'warming' means gentle heating, and nothing about temperature
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Phil at 06:15 AM on 17 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Apologies to KR and Bob @219 @220, I should have explained in more detail, however Bob guessed my method correctly! it was really was intended as an "order of magnitude" calculation to suggest that old_sage's comments @216 were the result of a lack of sagacity on his part.
Since the conversation has moved on, I would add that there is, in fact no such thing as a ground state for a molecule, there are, of course, multiple. For a triatomic linear moeclue such as CO2 there are 2 degenerate rotational states, 4 vibrational ones (symmetric stretch, asymmetric stretch and double degenerate bend) as well as the electronic state. At STP CO2 molecules will be in many excited rotational states, several excited vibrational states - particularly the bend which is a lowest frequency, and almost exclusive in the ground electronic state. The black body radiation from Earth is absorbed and emitted by the CO2 bend since its frequency coincides with the radiation emitted by earth. This is in the Infra-red region of the EM spectrum and is what KR refers to as Thermal Radiation. old_sage's reference to excited electronic states is simply a strawman.
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Lou Grinzo at 06:10 AM on 17 July 2013They didn't change the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
Thank you for this posting. I don't know why, but it seems that there's been a big uptick lately in the number of claims that "we" changed terminology as some sort of ploy to fool people.
Given how quickly we're losing ice just about everywhere on the planet, I guess we were VERY persuasive...
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gws at 06:08 AM on 17 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
The distribution of energy levels in a gas is decribed by the Boltzmann distribution. For atmospheric temperatures, several vibrational states above the ground state are populated for CO2 and all other greenhouse gases. However, this would still not guarantee a greenhouse effect if our atmosphere were homogenous in terms of pressure and temperature, which it obviously is not.
Textbook knowledge in one field (e.g. solid state physics) does not mean one understands gas phase physics, or can directly apply one to the other. In this case, an understanding of both (infrared-) spectroscopy and radiative transfer are needed. As oldsage seems to display major misunderstandings of even some basics, I suggest to tone it down and start form the beginning. As he said: "Get your text book out." Will you do that too oldsage?
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Composer99 at 06:00 AM on 17 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
This is practically impossible with CO2 molecules. CO2 molecules at STP are in the ground state - where do they get the energy to radiate? Your claim that they do is purely and simply due to external stimulation. CO2 is simply an agent, a receptor if you like, for radiation generated elswhere it then will obviously participate in transitions as it seeks to return to its groundstate. You confuse scattering, which involves re-transmission of a proportion of incident energy with spontaneous emission - which again cannot happen.
What parts of CO2 absorbs longwave IR from the Earth surface (or from radiating molecules elsewhere in the atmosphere) and CO2 molecules receive thermal energy from collisions with other molecules in the atmosphere are you having trouble understanding? Certainly these seem to qualify as "external stimulation" allowing CO2 molecules the opportunity to "get the energy to radiate".
Seriously, absorption and emission of longwave IR by greenhouse gases is observed & measured (as per graphs & sources provided in comments responding to you). Insofar as there is any actual contradiction between your claim (as quoted in this comment) and what is observed, you are putting readers into the position of having to accept one of the following:
- Observed and measured phenomena, consistent with known radiative physics, are false.
- old sage's claims are false
I put it to you that the choice is obvious (and unfavourable to you).
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KR at 05:38 AM on 17 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
old sage - What I have been discussing is thermal radiation, observed in all matter at a temperature greater than absolute zero - where kinetic energies cause dipole oscillations and accelerated charges, and result in photon emission.
A significant percentage of CO2 at standard temperature and pressure is indeed above ground state, and radiating, as can be shown with IR spectroscopy. And that energy could come from incoming IR at CO2 absorption wavelengths or perhaps from a heated wire - spontaneous thermal emission, not scattering. The emission spectra is dependent on gas temperature, not on any incoming IR.
Again, your physics claims regarding thermal emission from gases are simply nonsense, contradicted by hundreds of years of both theory and observations.
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Composer99 at 05:38 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
Stealth:
Appeals to personal qualifications and arguments from incredulity such as on display in #236 and #238 are not terribly convincing.
All this:
Being a software modeler myself (for 30+ years) dealing with RF energy through atmosphere, I understand that what is measured in the lab, what is model in software, and what the real world does are almost always very different. The real world is so noisy and chaotic that I have found models are almost useless in predicting what will really happen in the real world. I would be stunned if this is not also true for this forcing equation, and GCMs in general.
Trying to measure this value for the real world, on average, is probably impossible given that the atmosphere is so different moment to moment and place to place, and changes in long term trends may be hard to determine since we have so little empirical measurement data.
I admit it *might be* correct, but I cannot prove or disprove it, nor can anyone else. This isn’t meant as a criticism of experts in this field, only a realization of my experience that the atmosphere is impossible to model accurately. [Emphasis mine.]
Your assertion that this is basic physics and models match the real world simply cannot be true. I understand physics (I have a physics degree) and I build software models for living (I also have a computer science degree) so I think I am qualified to speak to models and physics.
The climate is not that simple – far from it – so my assertion of uncertainty is, I believe, completely accurate and true.
strikes me as practically equivalent to:
I know what I'm talking about, trust me & not the data.
I don't believe this is true, therefore it is not true.
although I am sure it was not your intent to communicate such sentiments.
(I have highlighted in the quotes from your comments the three words that are often the butt of jokes on medical blogs: "in my experience" or variants there of are sometimes called "the most dangerous words in medicine". I see no reason why this maxim should not generally be applicable to other scientific domains, particularly when the person asserting it is arguing against the weight of evidence, as you are.)
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KR at 05:17 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
Stealth - Perhaps you should re-read just what you have quoted:
...net energy balance... This uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the changes to the net surface fluxes associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Since what we are discussing WRT Myhre 1998 are radiative transfer codes, and the change in forcings due to changes in atmospheric composition, we are indeed speaking of the 'net surface fluxes' which have far lower uncertainties. You seem to be conflating uncertainties in accounting for multiple energy flows into a total budget with uncertainties in computing atmospheric spectral response - applying an entire collection of uncertainties to a tiny portion of the puzzle.
If you wish to discuss the total energy budget, the sum of individual components (and their uncertainties) of the energy budget, there is an appropriate thread. However, the radiative transfer codes are well proven, giving results within under 1% of observations (Chen et al 2007) including dealing with compositional changes - arguing any significant uncertainties in that regard (as you have) is quite frankly unsupportable.
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old sage at 05:13 AM on 17 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
I've made the physics as clear as a pike staff. The reason a solid emits as a black body is because the coming together of nuclei in close proximity forces the outer electronic bands so close together that they form a continuum of energy levels. Co-operative movements due to thermal oscillation means that lattice waves involving many nuclei, phonons if you will, in collision have sufficient energy to cause photon energy level transitions in the electron bands. It all goes on at the boundary layer as i/r cannot penetrate a solid for more than a skin effect depth so i/r cannot emerge from anything other than the skin.
This is practically impossible with CO2 molecules. CO2 molecules at STP are in the ground state - where do they get the energy to radiate? Your claim that they do is purely and simply due to external stimulation. CO2 is simply an agent, a receptor if you like, for radiation generated elswhere it then will obviously participate in transitions as it seeks to return to its groundstate. You confuse scattering, which involves re-transmission of a proportion of incident energy with spontaneous emission - which again cannot happen. Get your text book out.
I could also explain to you how phonon waves at very low temperature cause electrons to attract each other in pairs over very large distances (compared with the atomic diameter) but if you don't understand the above, you certainly wont understand that!
MA Roger - I just assumed stefans law with T 300 radiating to a body at 0K. -
MA Rodger at 04:54 AM on 17 July 2013The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years? Part 2.
KK Tunk @192.
I think this dialogue would benefit from my restating of the question @188. If you feel that you have answered this question adequately @190 & @192 then do say (although I would be surprised if this were so).
I here introduce a graph below showing the data from Tung&Zhou2013 Figs 5A&B. It presents quite a few questions but I will kick off here by asking about the wobbles in the blue trace.
The blue trace is the 10-year rolling average of residuals from the MLR obtained by subtracting the QCO2(t) function (introduced in your first SkS post) from the data presented in Fig 5B, and obviously re-based for clarity's sake. According to Zhou &Tung 2013 which covers your MLR analysis more fully than T&Zh13 "The residual ... should only consist of climate noise if the MLR is successful..." This conforms to my understanding of it.
Yet the blue trace showing the residuals from the MLR analysis in Tung&Zhou2013 shows a lot more than "noise." There are distinct wobbles and these are not small wobbles being 43% that of the original HadCRUT4 wobbles (red trace). The residuals thus contain a very significant part of the HadCRUT4 signal which the MLR analysis has failed to attribute.A cynic would point to such wobbles within the residuals as being indicative of curve-fitting.
For myself, I am more charitable and rather see the problem being that these wobbles have gone unreported in Tung&Zhou2013. Indeed, a very similar trace can also be derived from Fig 1B Zhou&Tung2013 yet that paper says of the data in Fig 1B "The global-mean temperature adjusted this way shows mostly a monotonic trend with some scatter." This blue trace is definitely not "scatter."
(Note that the graph below features data derived from your Fig 5A&B in Tung&Zhou2013 as there are other feature beyond the blue trace that I see requiring explanation & which I hope we can address in later comments.)Could you thus explain why this wobble is present in the residuals and why its presence has remained unreported?
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John Hartz at 04:22 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
@StealthAircraftSoftwareModeler:
Out of curiousity, which climate models have you analyzed in depth?
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StealthAircraftSoftwareModeler at 04:13 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
KR @237 To be honest, I’m fairly stunned by your response and I am not sure how to address it. Just out of curiosity, what is your background?
You seem to be asserting that the alpha coefficient of 5.35 of the CO2 forcing function is both accurate and precise because it has been empirically measured. That cannot be true, otherwise people would not be building models as a way to attempt to arrive at these values. Correct? Why build a model when you can just measure it. Your assertion that this is basic physics and models match the real world simply cannot be true. I understand physics (I have a physics degree) and I build software models for living (I also have a computer science degree) so I think I am qualified to speak to models and physics.
The climate is not that simple – far from it – so my assertion of uncertainty is, I believe, completely accurate and true. As further evidence to “prove” that there is enormous uncertainty in the climate, just read the TOA energy balance paper Stevens et al that was referenced by Tom Curtis @ 226. This is great paper! It is peer reviewed. At the end it states: “The net energy balance is the sum of individual fluxes. The current uncertainty in this net surface energy balance is large, and amounts to approximately 17 Wm–2. This uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the changes to the net surface fluxes associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”
Think about that – the uncertainty in the energy budget is ten times larger than the fluxes associated with GHGs. This is clearly proof that my assertions of uncertainty are completely warranted.
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KK Tung at 04:06 AM on 17 July 2013The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years? Part 2.
In reply to MA Rodger at post 191:As I said, I didn't quite understand your question and so it would help if you could ask it again if my reply in post 190 was not satisfactory. In that reply I was trying to address your corrected version---note that it did not address the incorrect references to Figure 2. It contains two parts, the first part was that you should not take the wobbles in Figure5AB as the original interannual variation in HadCRUT4. It is Figure 4A that should serve that purpose. The second part was the last two sentences, which explain what the residual should contain in practice. Ideally, the residual (after the anthropogenic response) should contain only climate noise, but in practice, especially in early decades of the data record, it could contain data inadequacies. Some of these data problems could also be amplified by the MLR procedure: Some of the timing of the occurrences of El Nino warming events in the HadCRUT4 data may not be consistent with the ENSO index we used a century ago. So the MLR may produce a negative spike, while the warming spike still remains. We could allow a lag in response that optimizes the removal of ENSO variations in the early decades, but the same lag then messes up the recent decades, which have better data.
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KR at 03:37 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
Stealth - Regarding Myhre 1998:
"I doubt it is realistic or correct relative to what is really happening in the real world."
You would be wrong. Those model results have been proven out, empirically measured by the satellite observations, such as those discussed in the opening post (Harries et al 2001 in particular). Have you read the opening post of this thread?
Yes, the Myhre results are based on numeric models of radiative absorption/emission - using column estimates from three multiple latitudes, three different models to minimize bias and atmospheric variation. And they have been confirmed - the satellite spectra show the same outgoing radiation as predicted by those models. And therefore the modelling of slightly different atmospheric compositions is trustworthy. There is really no doubt about them, no significant uncertainties in direct forcing calculations.
If your model reproduces observations from basic physics, it's a good model. Your issues about uncertainties are unwarranted.
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DSL at 03:32 AM on 17 July 2013Sea level rise is exaggerated
Earthling, does that fact somehow make rapid sea level rise somehow benign?
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John Fisher at 03:16 AM on 17 July 2013They didn't change the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
Here is one such example provided by Anthony Watts:
"Global warming" suggests a steady linear increase in temperature, but since that isn't happening, proponents have shifted to the more universal term "climate change," which can be liberally applied to just about anything observable in the atmosphere.
Climate Change without Catastrophe: Interview with Anthony Watts, oilprice.com, 11 March, 2013
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rockytom at 02:33 AM on 17 July 2013Global warming games - playing the man not the ball
To Brett N, #5. Your comment is one of the best I have seen in a long time. Indeed, this site is one of the best, if not the best, to try to educate the deniers. The problem is that most of them don't read or understand the material discussed here. The impetus for John Cook and I in writing our textbook (Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis) was to make the climate science/global warming truth available to college students perhaps taking their first class in science at the introductory college level. All we can do is throw the facts and truth ih the direction of the deniers and hope that some of it sticks. John's work in climate change science communication is extremely importand as is that of Dana and others, Mann, Mandia, Abraham, Santor, McKibbon, and many other climate scientists (the 97%).
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Earthling at 02:33 AM on 17 July 2013Sea level rise is exaggerated
If sea level was falling, Earth would be in an ice age and that wouldn't be nice for any of us.
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StealthAircraftSoftwareModeler at 02:04 AM on 17 July 2013CO2 effect is saturated
KR @222. I went and read Myhre 1998 that produced the ΔF = 5.35*ln(C/C0) W/m2 estimate for CO2 forcing. The issue I have with this is that the alpha coefficient of 5.35 is derived from three different models, which assume that the models are accurate relative to the global atmosphere.
Being a software modeler myself (for 30+ years) dealing with RF energy through atmosphere, I understand that what is measured in the lab, what is model in software, and what the real world does are almost always very different. The real world is so noisy and chaotic that I have found models are almost useless in predicting what will really happen in the real world. I would be stunned if this is not also true for this forcing equation, and GCMs in general.
Trying to measure this value for the real world, on average, is probably impossible given that the atmosphere is so different moment to moment and place to place, and changes in long term trends may be hard to determine since we have so little empirical measurement data. So while this is the “best go-to reference” we have, I doubt it is realistic or correct relative to what is really happening in the real world. I admit it *might be* correct, but I cannot prove or disprove it, nor can anyone else. This isn’t meant as a criticism of experts in this field, only a realization of my experience that the atmosphere is impossible to model accurately.
Tom Curtis @226: I think you made a minor math error. If the average global temperature is 15C, or 288K, then 0.5% of this is 1.44K. I love the energy balance diagram by Stevens et al 2012. I went and read the paper and I found it quite interesting. Since Kevin Trenberth has generated a topic on the energy budget (http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=865), I am going to take my questions and comments about the energy budget over there.
Scaddenp @227. Just because warmer air can hold more water vapor, doesn’t mean it will. Charts I have seen (http://www.climate4you.com/GreenhouseGasses.htm) of humidity for the atmosphere over time has been about the same at low levels, but at higher altitudes relative humidity has been decreasing. If these charts are correct, this seems to suggest that water vapor has not increased as the atmosphere has warmed over this time period (65 years).
Moderator Response:[TD] For your comment on water vapor, please read the counterargument to "Humidity is Falling," and if you disagree with the peer-reviewed evidence presented there, please comment there. Regarding water vapor in the stratosphere, see "What is the role of stratospheric water vapor in global warming?" Anyone who responds to Stealth's comment here about water vapor, please, please do so on those other threads, not here. Everybody must help to keep the conversations on the appropriate threads. Thank you.
[TD] Thank you for recognizing that another post is the right place to talk about energy budget!
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KR at 23:59 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
old sage - You make several absurd claims:
"CO2 does not radiate as a black body, it merely scatters and absorbs - that is until you get it up to several thousand degrees, and I don't know how many, but it doesn't occur where you assert it does!"[ ] ...Sorry, CO2 in gaseous form cannot convert kinetic to photon energy except under the rare circumstances I suggest..."
I cannot emphasize enough how wrong those statements are. CO2 (and CH4, and ozone, and CFCs) absorb (not scatter) and emit over a broad IR spectra, with photon emission coming from electron orbital relaxation, and electron excitation being easily converted between orbital and vibrational modes, with a corresponding ability to interchange kinetic and electronic energy. Ionized plasmas are simply not required.
You might find it useful to read up on Kirchhoff's law of thermal radiation, which states that "for an arbitrary body emitting and absorbing thermal radiation in thermodynamic equilibrium, the emissivity is equal to the absorptivity", meaning that the emission spectra at radiative equilibrium is identical to the absorption spectra.
Your assertions regarding gaseous IR emission, to be blunt, are total nonsense contradicted by physics and observations. If as you state you have a background in thin film superconductors, you should know better. Until and unless you decide to discuss physics, rather than Just So Stories, your posts are not worth anyones time.
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Composer99 at 23:45 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
old sage claims:
CO2 does not radiate as a black body, it merely scatters and absorbs - that is until you get it up to several thousand degrees, and I don't know how many
Just so I'm clear here, old sage, which of the two below are you suggesting:
- CO2 does not radiate electromagnetic energy as a perfect blackbody, while still radiating electromagnetic energy.
- CO2 does not radiate electromagnetic energy at all until reaching very high temperatures.
I'm assuming, based on the clause after the dash, that you are claiming #2.
Even based on less-reliable "common sense" inference this claim is plainly false, to say nothing of empirical measurements of the outgoing E/M emission spectrum of the Earth by satellite, which are consistent with emissions of longwave IR at temperatures well below "several thousand degrees".
As an approximation I would describe the Earth's emission spectrum as a composite of of blackbody-like curves between 220-320 K, consistent with the evidence presented by Tom (and others) and inconsistent with the bizarre claim you are attempting to advance.
(Incidentally, it seems to me that, for the purposes of E/M emission into space, you have got the wrong boundary.)
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MA Rodger at 23:42 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
old sage.
I think I am beginning to discern the bridge more clearly here. You say @223 that "I calculate that earth surface emits 56 w/m2 and what doesn't get straight out goes into gas kinetic energy." I would be interested to see how you calculate the 56 w/m2.
And with this, you also assert @227 that "CO2 in gaseous form cannot convert kinetic to photon energy except under the rare circumstances." You appear to be proposing that gases do not emit radiation. It would be useful to know where do you get this idea from. -
MA Rodger at 23:15 PM on 16 July 2013The anthropogenic global warming rate: Is it steady for the last 100 years? Part 2.
KK Tung.
Your reply @190 describes itself as being a reply to me @188. I have to say that I am not entirely clear that it is.
I can see that it is a reply to me @170. But as I point out in my first paragraph @188, my comment @170 mistook Fig 2b in your 1st SkS post as being equivalent to Fig 5b of T&Zh13. And it is this Fig 2b that strangely still features the HadCRUT4 signal. Thus such a reply as yours @190 is commenting on a mistaken thesis - not a productive use of words.
My first paragraph @188 was solely by way of an apology for my mistaking that Fig 2b for Fig 5b (although the strangness of Fig 2b does remain unexplained and this may be an issue for yourself).But enough of that initial paragraph @188.
You will surely note that @188 I present more than one paragraph. You will note that the second, third and fourth paragraph are the ones that lead up to my question which is the point at issue @188. Any response to my comment @188 would hopefully address these paragraphs and that question.
Now, it is not impossible that the final two sentences of your comment @190 could be construed as some sort of response to these final paragraphs. Yet they are so indirect and carry such implication that I find it hard to see them as a reply. If they are your reply, could you confirm as such. If they are not, a reply would be good.
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old sage at 23:05 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
I have just looked back at the reference you made TC refuting a previous post of mine about co2 radiating - and quite rude it was too. (CO2 obviously re-radiates a proportion of the energy by which it gets excited but your back-radiation - which will increase with concentration of CO2 - simply means more comes back becasue the number of scattering centres is denser.) Sorry, CO2 in gaseous form cannot convert kinetic to photon energy except under the rare circumstances I suggest, it would just defy the most basic conservation of energy rules. Dense concentrations in solids have that capacity by a process you seem to understand.
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old sage at 22:45 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
jmorpuss - very good reference that, that is where I am coming from because from a global viewpoint - and any radiating surface - it is the boundary conditions which determine the performance and earths boundary is a shimmering mass of charged particles. Various lens-like changes occur with height. (I should point out my research - a long time ago - was in thin film superconductors of the second kind where magnetic field breaks down into quantised vortices) I imagine such movements high up generating long wave radiation correlated with atmospheric energy levels (hopefully).
TC you repeat what I said in 1 but ignore the consequences. CO2 does not radiate as a black body, it merely scatters and absorbs - that is until you get it up to several thousand degrees, and I don't know how many, but it doesn't occur where you assert it does!
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Tom Curtis at 21:48 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Old Sage @223:
1) Solids, like all elements and molecules, absorb and emit radiation at discrete wavelengths corresponding with the discrete energy levels of electron shells, molecular bonds and rotational and vibrational patterns. In solids there are so many elements, so closely packed that the number of such discrete wavelengths is very large so that the radiation will often closely approximate to that of a black body. Nevertheless, the discrete wavelengths of radiation and absorption are there, and are no different in principle in behaviour than that of gases.
2) I have already shown this to be wrong by observational evidence here.
3) Like all substances, CO2 radiates at specific frequencies. The intensity with which it radiates at those frequencies is a function of temperature, based on the laws of black body radiation.
4) At least you got this correct, if nothing else. Unfortunately everything that follows is wrong.
You write:
"If co2 does not stop radiation completely in a clear sky from escaping, it is having little effect, even if it does it accounts for what, 1 % of the spectrum."
This illustrates the absurdity of your position. To actually claim that if CO2 stops 99% or IR radiation, it will have no effect because it is not 100% (ie, completely) is not only wrong, it is nonsensical.
You further write:
"On the quantum front, I suspect solar radiance is worked out by multiplying the normal figure by cross-section."
You are again wrong. The mean solar irradiance is calculated as the Total Solar Irradiance divided by the ratio between the surface area the Earth, and of a disc with the radius of the Earth perpendicular to the Sun's rays (which ratio happens to be 4) - then multiplied by one minus the bond albedo of the Earth. The bond albedo is the reflectance averaged over all angles. Therefore, the standard formula actually incorporates the information you say is ignored, and which you say is not measured.
You write:
"I calculate that earth surface emits 56 w/m2"
Again, you are simply wrong. Below are radiative fluxes at the surface as measured over Lake Ontario. The upwelling surface flux is given as a negative value (dashed line) because it is in the opposite direction to the net short wave radiation (red line, consisting of incoming sunlight minus reflected sunlight) and the back radiation (short dashed line). Note that the surface flux never drops below 200 W/m^2 (as measured), nearly four times your estimated maximum value. It would be much larger in tropical areas, which constitute 50% of the Earth's surface.
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jmorpuss at 19:47 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
@ Old Sage Is this the angle your comming from link
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old sage at 18:27 PM on 16 July 2013Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
Let me just give a little lesson in physics as I understand it - tell me if I'm wrong.
1) earth's surface radiates a spectrum because it is a solid and the energy levels are practically continuous because atoms are forced together. The spectrum varies with the temperature - oscillation of lattice - and character of surface (water, ice, grass, etc).
2) gas molecules are so far apart, their excitation levels require a statistically insignificant collision of several of them to 'stop' say three and leave a fourth spinning off with photon levels of energy. You could work the figures out but it would not necessarily be a carbon level, that would be even less likely (Gases do not radiate!)
3) Carbon dioxide absorbs electromagnetic energy just as does any interfering substance the amplitude falling off exponentially as heat is dissipated in the dielectric. (goes for beta, gamma, wireless - anything, not alpha of course, not e/m radiation)
4) Water droplets in a cloud approach the solid situation, spectrum wil depend on size and T. This means clouds can radiate, the energy comes from somewhere - condensation if growing, sunlight if on the lit side and the surrounding gases in all cases. They do not conjure up energy from nowhere.
If co2 does not stop radiation completely in a clear sky from escaping, it is having little effect, even if it does it accounts for what, 1 % of the spectrum. Clouds simply provide an additional staging post for energy conversion and re-conversion.On the quantum front, I suspect solar radiance is worked out by multiplying the normal figure by cross-section. Well, much e/m energy strikes the earth at a glancing angle, I don't expect anyone has worked out the amount totally reflected at the various boundaries for various frquencies - experiments I know have been carried out looking at i/r. But that would be fairly marginal given the scale of error introduced by that solar balance diagram on top of this thread.
I calculate that earth surface emits 56 w/m2 and what doesn't get straight out goes into gas kinetic energy. Follow the kinetic I say, find out where it goes and discover the cooling effect of radiation from the ionosphere!
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Tom Curtis at 17:42 PM on 16 July 2013CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician
CBlargh @6, a large increase in the quantity of plants would show up in the fossil record as an increase in dC13 as the C12 isotope in CO2 was preferentially taken up in photosynthesis. The release of O2 by photosynthesis would also show up as elevated oxygen levels. However, this effect would have been very minor in the Ordivician when land plants were small, non-woody plants resembling liverworts, and mostly confined to shore lines, at least according to wikipedia.
However, as plants evolved and colonized the land, that is exactly what happened. At least, it was what happened until the evolution of land animals reduced the extent of forestation and reduced the time from photosynthesis to decay/metabolism, thereby restoring the balance:
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CBlargh at 16:57 PM on 16 July 2013CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician
I feel like the evolution of land plants at the same general time of the Silurian-Ordovician glaciation is not a coincidence. It seems to me, this should have had a similar effect on climate as the initial evolution of plant life.
If these plants were to have drawn down atmospheric carbon into swamps and bogs which remained there until being digested by newly evolved animals or burned because of retreating water, this wouldn't show in the strontium signal, right?
How would it be possible to detect such an event? Would the ¹³C delta be higher because marine organisms were carbon-deficient and picking it up more frequently? -
Bob Loblaw at 14:58 PM on 16 July 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
Patrick:
Yes, specialized conditions come into play. That's why salt mines and potash mines are are found in some places, but not most. Shallow seas, in hot locations, where evaporation is high. Most of the potash that I know of is from ancient seas, currently far from any salt water body. Ditto for many salt deposits.
I'm not a geologist, so I don't know offhand where such deposits may be currently forming, but I know where I'd start to look.
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Patrick 027 at 11:36 AM on 16 July 2013Understanding the long-term carbon-cycle: weathering of rocks - a vitally important carbon-sink
Bob Loblaw - thank you - (I sure hope I'm soluble enough to help) - but I assume those types of deposits form under rather restricted/special conditions - a body of water has to be isolated from the rest of the ocean to some extent (maybe not completely - epeiric seas) so that it can dry up enough to form NaCl deposits, for example (I don't know as much about potash). I didn't think the oceans continually become more saline over time in between such evaporite deposits forming. I've heard that ocean chemistry is maintained over geologic type via cycling through hydrothermal vents - are they a sink for these elements? Is biogenic sediment a significant sink?
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gws at 11:15 AM on 16 July 2013Agnotology, Climastrology, and Replicability Examined in a New Study
I find the comment by Chris G very interesting. I agree that many people probably believe what they are saying, certainly many lay people who get their (mis-)information from "skeptical" websites or friends, do seem to believe what they are saying.
However, it is also true IMHO that when one is exposed to an enormous amount of fact contrary to one's viewpoint, one does usually concede the point or at least retreats, i.e. stops arguing the obviously false. To take ChrisG's analogy: Certain mistakes made by students may be common, but those same students sooner or later realize their mistakes and either switch major or stop making the same mistakes and learn ...
Not true for a large group if not all "contrarians". They insist on making the same mistakes using the same false logic over and over and over again. Solheim and Ellestad from Klimarealistene are prime examples. They cannot be called "wrong" any more, they clearly behave like/are denialists, only clothing themselves as "skeptics"; and I think the ESDD paper comments (again) show that. When I exposed Ellestad's denialist methods online, he simply repeated the same tactics in reply, very similar to his comment on this manuscript. No evidence, no coherent argument, only rhetoric ala "everybody knows that the Hockey Stick is broken".
I have trouble believing that people like Ellestad have simply "slipped a gear", as seemingly that is what Chris G suggests in his last paragraph. The difference is between ordinary denial, well researched in pschycology and underlying the examples given by Chris G, and denialism as defined by Chris Hoofnagle as
"[...] the employment of rhetorical tactics to give the appearance of argument or legitimate debate, when in actuality there is none.”
The latter is clearly employed by Klimarealistene and others, and, as a result, does warrant a search for evidence that they, as others, "intentionally" make mistakes in trying to disprove the facts. This paper makes a large step in that direction, kudos to Benestad and colleagues.
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JasonB at 10:53 AM on 16 July 2013Patrick Michaels: Cato's Climate Expert Has History Of Getting It Wrong
glhoffman,
With regard to post no. 34, there are more fundamental problems with current models in making projections because they are largely unverifiable.
That's a bold claim, supported by the following:
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill.
Emphasis mine.
Can you see the difference?
In the context of repeated statements about the fact that the signal:noise ratio is too high over short time periods to even be able to confirm global warming is still happening over those short periods — purely because of that signal:noise ratio, not because it isn't still happening! — what makes you think that saying it's difficult to verify model predictions over those same time scales is saying something profoundly important about their skill?
Of course models are verifiable, and there have been plenty of model predictions that have been verified, including multiple cases where the data apparently falsified the models at the time and then it was discovered that the data was wrong! The trick is that we just have to be patient purely and simply because the signal:noise ratio does not allow us to verify these models until enough time has passed for the short-term weather noise to cancel out revealing the underlying climate change. If you do that, then even quite simple models do a decent job of hindcasting the last hundred years or so.
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Tom Curtis at 10:44 AM on 16 July 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
Old Sage @71, IMO, whether or not CO2 radiates at normal atmospheric pressures and temperatures is the crux of your argument. In fact, that CO2 does radiate in the IR at normal atmospheric temperatures and pressures is resoundingly confirmed by experiment.
Line by Line and broad band radiation models model the transfer of radiation within the atmosphere. For line by line models, the atmosphere is divided up into a number of layers. For each layer radiative transfer is calculated, with the total upward radiation at the top of that layer being the total upward radiation at the top of the next lower layer, less the radiation absorbed by the layer, plus the upward emissions by that layer. For line by line models, this is calculated seperately for each wave number. For broad band models, it is calculated seperately for groups or wave numbers (ie, the bands). All such models assume that each layer emits an amount based on their emissivity times the radiation expected for that wave number (or band) by a black body of the same temperature of the layer. The emissivity, of course, equals the absorptivity.
If CO2 did not radiate at normal atmospheres and pressures, such models would be massively inaccurate. Instead, they are stunningly confirmed by observations (see the section "Settled Science" in the main article, and my comment number 42). These models have not just been confirmed by observations from space, but also by observations by aircraft looking both upwards and downwards at various altitudes. Indeed, they have also been confirmed by aircraft observations looking sidewards, as the original research was done in the interests of developing accurate Infrared guided air to air missiles. They have also been confirmed by observations looking upwards from the ground. Here (courtesy of Science of Doom) is a comparison between modelled and observed back radiation:
Science of Doom has more graphs of measurments of back radiation on this page.
The back radiation is particularly devestating to your theory. As I understand it, you claim that CO2 absorbs, but does not reradiate IR radiation, except in the "electromagnetic soup" at the top of the atmosphere, ie, the ionosphere. If that were the case, there would be no IR back radiation. Any IR back radiation from the ionosphere would be as completely absorbed by the intervening atmosphere as would IR radiation from the surface. With no intervening radiation (according to your theory), the result would be a complete lack of IR radiation at the surface at bands where CO2 was strongly aborbing. Instead, we see the opposite, with the strongest IR back radiation at those wavelengths where CO2 is most strongly aborbing:
Further, nearly all of that back radiation comes from the lowest km of the Earth's atmosphere. For that reason, typically, the brightness temperature, ie, the incoming energy normalized by black body radiation curve, closely matches the surface. The exceptions are when the upper troposphere is signicantly warmer than the surface (as with Antarctica in the winter) which results in warmer wings (where CO2 is less absorptive, and hence originates from higher in the atmosphere in the case of back radiation) then does the more strongly absorbing center:
In contrast to your theory, the theory that CO2 radiates IR at normal atmospheric temperatures and pressures results in not just accurate predictions of the total energy radiated, but accurate predictions of the detailed profile of the emission spectrum given knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile. (For the upward case, see the section "Settled Science" in the main article.
In contrast to this mass of detailed prediction and confirmation, you offer us a counter theory which has not even reached the back of envelope calculation stage. There is a reason that it has gone no further. If you take it further it immediately breaks down and is shown to be contradicted by the evidence. Given that, your choice at the moment is very clear. Embrace science by rejecting the nonsense you are currently espousing - or show clearly that it is pseudo-science you love and expouse by repeating the same old nonsense yet again.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 10:30 AM on 16 July 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
old sage
see my comment here
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