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ajki at 14:21 PM on 25 June 2013Media Overlooking 90% of Global Warming
I'm not very happy with this (kind of) "liberal" approach on terms. When that what has been measured and shown by the scientific community throughout ages is "global warming" - then by all means call it so. The term "climate change" smells like "denier spirit" - just to come by with this usual "well hey, that's ok - climate will always change". Using the wrong term for the noted phenomenon will get us nowhere.
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Donthaveone at 14:07 PM on 25 June 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #25
I do believe GillianB is referring to this statement
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/climate-change-like-atom-bomb-scientists/story-fn3dxiwe-1226668054364
Or habe (Hiroshima atomic bomb equivalents) but alas i do not know how this figure was reached.
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Donthaveone at 13:45 PM on 25 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
Mod,
I have read the comments policy and i do accept i erred when i copied and pasted a statement for which i appologise, i did not complain to a moderator i merely asked what the word meant as i did not recognise it. I have no idea what was inflammatory but if a mod feels it is then so be it.
In response do the mods feel it is acceptable to percieve ones tone and then make unsubstantiated comments based on that perception?
Also do the mods feel it acceptable that one can claim the use of the word "Cheers" when ending a post to be an indication of ones true intentions?
Moderator Response:[DB] Per the Comments Policy :
No profanity or inflammatory tone. Again, constructive discussion is difficult when overheated rhetoric or profanity is flying around.
For those genuinely wishing to engage others on the science of climate change...and the denial of it, then Skeptical Science is the place to do that. However, please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum. The Comments Policy is a common set of rules that everyone here observes and abides by.
Lastly, please note that moderation policies are not open for discussion.
Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it; this will allow yourself to participate in a rich discussion. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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DSL at 13:32 PM on 25 June 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #25
It's two hiroshimas per second, if you're talking about ocean heat content gain. I haven't seen a calc for the other two or the other parts of the climate system. Of course, OHC 0-2000m has spiked in recent months . . .
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GillianB at 13:23 PM on 25 June 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #25
Hi, can someone point me towards the calculations behind the 'four Hiroshimas a second' statement?
Thanks, Gillian
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DSL at 13:09 PM on 25 June 2013Climate's changed before
Yah, I second what Rob points out.
Skeptical Still: "I don’t see adequate evidence showing mans’ actions as the cause."
Start with the greenhouse effect. If it's highly probable (it's been measured in lab for over a century, inferred from satellite for decades, directly measured from the surface for a couple of decades (e.g. Puckrin et al. 2004), and successfully accounted for in products such as air-to-air missiles), then we have a basic energy imbalance situation. Add GHGs, and the climate system stores more energy. No matter what any other forcing is doing, and no matter what alternative is offered, the enhanced greenhouse effect must be accounted for. If you don't believe that humans are responsible for the rapid rise in CO2, there are threads for that. If you don't think that CO2 is a powerful greenhouse gas, Lacis et al. 2010 is a fairly readable explanation why it is.
The paleo data simply helps constrain the net feedback both in terms of strength and timing. It does not provide evidence for the basic theory. That's just physics. -
scaddenp at 12:46 PM on 25 June 2013Climate's changed before
Skeptical Still.
Okay, how about looking at a longer (2000 years say). The important thing is actually to take a long enough record to be able to distinguish the signal from noise. This depends on S/N ratio.
"I have not see any proof that we understand whether the delta in the ‘forces’ caused the climate change or themselves were caused by the climate change (or were coincidental to it)." I find this strange coming from a fellow geologist. Firstly its not normal to talk of proof in science, only maths gets that. Second, there is a vast geological literature on the paleoclimate and forces. For starters you should look at IPCC WG1 Chp 6 for the basic background but follow cites from key papers and you will see new research. Hansen and Sato 2012 is discussed here. Note Fig 3 especially.
"Cant predict weather so cant predict climate" is a very old myth. See here for pointers to the science. I would strongly suggest you work your way through the "arguments" button on the top left of this page so see what science has to say about these myths.
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michael sweet at 12:29 PM on 25 June 2013Climate's changed before
Skeptical,
If you have a degree in Geology you will be aware that changing sea level leaves geological records. This link has data you might appreciate covering the last 40 million years. Is that enough for you? The Romans, Greeks and Egyptians all left records of sea level. These records extend the well documented record back 4,000 years. You cannot expect to have world wide tide gauge records longer than 150 years, scientific measurements have only been done for that long.
You are confusing climate and weather. Climate is much easier to forecast than weather. I do not know if there will be a storm in two weeks. It will certaily be colder in January than it is now in Florida. Read the background information before you challenge people who are much more informed than you are. If you do not understand the basics you cannot hope to master more complex subjects. The ice core data is compared to model projections to determine how the various forcings interact. This is one of the ways the models are validated. If you do not understand how the data is examined, how can you expect to understand "incredible" results?
It is not the responsibility of this web site to spoon feed you all climate science. You must read the background information so that you can ask reasonable questions. I suggest you go to the "start here" button at the top of the page. Ask a few questions about items you do not understand. You will sound like you want to learn more with a better attitude.
If you do not look at the data you will never see "incredible" evidence. That does not mean that the data does not exist, just that you have not looked for it yet. Arhennius predicted in 1896 that the increase of CO2 would increase temperatures more in winter than summer, more at night than in the day, more over land than sea, more in the arctic than the tropics and more in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere. All these predictions have been measured in the last several decades. That sounds pretty "incredible" to me. What is your alternate explaination for the collapse of Arctic sea ice (keep in mind that the "skeptics" still deny the ice is melting and predict a recovery every year)?
We all wish that AGW theory was wrong. Unfortunately, the data indicate that is not the case.
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scaddenp at 12:24 PM on 25 June 2013Media Overlooking 90% of Global Warming
Ned - I find this very hard to comprehend. You are skeptical about published science because people are asking for something to be done? Because studies to date show that mitigating will be way cheaper than adaptation? This makes no sense at all. Let me put another example. Suppose science instead finds that there is asteroid on collision path with earth with 99% probability and also put up a number of potential avenues by which this might be averted. Are you going to be skeptical that the asteroid exists because they are funnily enough jumping up and down and asking for something to be done about it? What should they do?
This sounds very much like this little piece of logic:
"If AGW is true, then it is better to mitigate. I dont like proposals for mitigation, ergo AGW cant be true."
Is that really what you mean? On the other hand, solutions to date have had a lot of trouble gaining traction, particularly with with political right. Perhaps you would like to take the challenge here and say what you think should be done if you were convinced AGW needed mitigation.
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:57 AM on 25 June 2013Climate's changed before
Skeptical Still...
First I have to ask, do you believe that the researchers who have spent decades studying this subject understand their field of science? Those researcher are extremely clear about how serious this issue is. What I get from your comments is that, not only are you "not yet convinced," you seem to have already made up your mind before fully understanding the issue.
This is definitely a field of science where there are considerable uncertainties in many areas. Thus, it requires getting to know many more of the elements of the research in order to grasp how all the pieces fit together.
This is the point I usually direct people to Richard Alley's AGU lecture.
"I don’t deny anything- but I don’t see adequate evidence showing mans’ actions as the cause."
And this is where I usually point out the basic radiative physics of CO2.
"To the supporters of man-mad climate change- I hope for all our sake you are wrong."
And this is where I agree wholeheartedly. But the concern is that the evidence is overwhelming at this point. It's very unlikely to be wrong. The remaining question is merely, is it going to be bad, or is it going to be really bad? Or, hope beyond hope, can we stomp on the brakes and get our trajectory under control fast?
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Skeptical Still at 11:24 AM on 25 June 2013Climate's changed before
I stumbled on this webpage and appreciate the huge amount of work, data and analysis that goes into it. I have a degree in Geology and understand the arguments yet I'm not convinced and I'll site two examples. 1. The text posted alongside a graph showing sea level rise cautions the reader not to focus on a small set of points (with a ruler) as any trend line can be visible in a small data set. We are cautioned further to look at the entirety of the data. The first thing I noticed is that the data is only available to the mid-1800s. This ~180 year span is a tiny sliver of geologic time- even since the last ice age. We don’t seem to have a data set covering a span of time long enough to be meaningful. Why draw a conclusion from incomplete data? 2. Ice cores are presented as providing data on volcanic dust, atmospheric gases and other forces that worked to cause previous climate change. I have not see any proof that we understand whether the delta in the ‘forces’ caused the climate change or themselves were caused by the climate change (or were coincidental to it). The inference I took is that we fully understand the mechanics of the earth’s climate and can account for the causes of past climate change. Given our meager ability currently to forecast the weather and predict storms this does not seem to be true. I’m not a ‘denier’ nor is my head in the sand. I’m offended by these terms and refuse to hold a civil discussion with anyone resorting to name calling. My position, to paraphrase, is that incredible claims require incredible evidence. I don’t deny anything- but I don’t see adequate evidence showing mans’ actions as the cause. To the supporters of man-mad climate change- I hope for all our sake you are wrong. P.S. I don't seem to have mastered the formatting capabilities of the software- please forgive the lack of structure in my writing.
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Ken in Oz at 11:17 AM on 25 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
"The transport of ocean heat to depths, and to the poles, will drastically slow down, and this will allow the surface of the tropical oceans to warm rapidly."
This is -dare I say the word? - alarming.
Are we already getting long lived warm zones in deep water beneath and around the gyres? How much heat and time before that drastic slowing down?
My own interest in ocean heat has been mostly as a better way to communicate the ongoing nature of the ghg induced change in global heat balance in the face of strident claims that warming has been slowing down. The ups and downs of global air temperatures allow the unfortunate impression that global warming is something that waxes and wanes; Dana and co's combined ocean, land, ice and atmosphere heat content shows much less internal variability and, if used as a reference measure, would probably never go as long as one American or Australian election cycle without showing clear signs of ongoing warming. -
Ned Netterville at 11:09 AM on 25 June 2013Media Overlooking 90% of Global Warming
Even if global warming is the greatest threat to humanity since the Bubonic Plague, asking governments to address the problem with legislation is like putting Homer Simpson in charge of guarding the beer keg. D'oh! Whatever the U.S. congress does to address the problem is 100 percent certain to make matters worse. The reason I'm a skeptic is because I see and hear intelligent climate scientist calling for a political solution, and that is just plain nuts.
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Donthaveone at 11:02 AM on 25 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
I am sorry maybe i misunderstood what the point of SKS was.
dana1981 posted a newspaper story which in a nutshell claimed OHC data taken some 120 years ago was compared to current day Argo data and from this comparison it was then stated that the comparison shows the OHC has risen by an amount and this was due to AGW. The newspaper story gave no indication of how this comparison was achieved.
I was of the opinion that such a comparison was unrealistic in terms of both number of samples and methodology and stated such in the hope of generating a discussion point however this did not occur, instead i was told my "tone" was not acceptable and you cannot end a post with the word "cheers" i would be fascinated to know what is the correct way of ending a post DiKran?
Following on from this a moderator made this statement
(-Moderation complaints snipped-)?
To Dikran,
You stated in 9
(-blockquote snipped-).
(-Inflammatory snipped-). In regards to discussing science well i have asked questions regarding the science around this issue, have you even attempted to respond to those questions?
To scaddenp in 11,
Thankyou very much for the link i have not read the paper as yet but i will and respond to you in time.
Regards?
Moderator Response:[DB] Firstly, you were given a direct link to the openly-available submitted version of the paper in the previous moderator's comment.
Secondly, familiarize yourself with this site's Comments Policy before posting further comments. This is NOT an option.
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scaddenp at 09:47 AM on 25 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
My institution gives me access to the paper. In it I see that it builds heaving on "135 years of global ocean warming between the Challenger expedition and the Argo
Programme, Dean Roemmich,W. John Gould& John Gilson 2013" which is publically available. It answers most if not all of Donthaveone's queries but funnily enough they dont leap to the same conclusion. Worth reading. -
Phil at 08:22 AM on 25 June 2013Lu Blames Global Warming on CFCs (Curve Fitting Correlations)
tcflood @73
Have you got Lu mixed up with KK Tung ?
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william5331 at 06:21 AM on 25 June 2013Citizens Climate Lobby - Pushing for a US Carbon Fee and Dividend
It is very important what is done with the money collected as a carbon tax. Rather than give it to every citizen, give it in equal parts to every registered tax payer, whether or not they are paying tax currently. This has the great advantage that the data base already exists so there will be virtually no cost in implimenting it. Then don't let the legislators give this money as a tax reduction. You want to get this money into the hands of your poorest citizens. They will instantly spend all this money just to keep their heads above water and the money will come into the market to generate more taxes at all levels. After about 4 transfers of this money it is almost all in the hands of the government but in it's passage, it has "done good". The government can then start to pay off the national debt or at least borrow less. The amount of money in the system is of very little importance. The rate at which it circulates, of huge importance. Of course it would be insane to impliment such a system before cutting all subsidies to fossil fuel companies and transferring these subsidies to renewable energy companies.
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tcflood at 04:20 AM on 25 June 2013Lu Blames Global Warming on CFCs (Curve Fitting Correlations)
Moderator,
I was going to reference your site regarding your posting on Q-B Lu's recent paper and his two-part posting discussing the paper and your response. I haven't been able to find his posts. If I have simply missed them this time, please provide a link. If you have removed them, I would suggest that you post a comment that you have done so and your reasons for doing so.
Moderator Response:[TD] I don't see any comments by Lu in the deleted comments. I also don't remember seeing Lu's comments on this thread. Nor are any comments by Lu on the "It's CFCs" thread.
[TD] Maybe you are thinking of Lu's response over at Climate Science Watch.
[DB] There is no registered user at SkS under any variant of Lu's name.
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Kevin C at 23:17 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
Bigger problem - the reservoir isn't in equilibrium with itself. OK, think this is too hard to solve with either intuition or simple models.
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Kevin C at 22:51 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
OK, very interesting result - my intuition appears to be completely wrong on this.
I made a simple model in which the atmosphere is constantly in equilibrium with the difference between forcing and ocean heat uptake, equivalent to the effective sensitivity equation. Then I drove this from a 2 box model in a TCR experiment (although any realistic response function will give the same result).
If focing levels out, then the heat flux immediately reverses so that heat leaves the ocean rather than entering it. This heat goes into the atmosphere, warming it. That's where 'warming in the pipeline' comes from.
If this model is plausible then a flattening in forcing looks completely different from a hiatus decade, even using only total OHC as a measure.
The model is flawed because the heat reservoir doesn't have a temperature. I need to redo the whole thing with a thermodynamic model as a check.
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CBDunkerson at 22:22 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
It is interesting that the 20th century IPO phases seem to line up fairly well with another cycle I've heard about more frequently in the past, the 'Pacific Decadal Oscillation' (PDO). From what I can gather on the geography of where they each occur these aren't the same thing, but it seems likely that there is some connection.
Both cycles also line up with previous 'warming breaks' in the early 1900s and 1950s to 60s. The previous warming break is often attributed to aerosol pollution blocking incoming sunlight and that is also considered a possible cause of the current 'slow down' in atmospheric warming, but seems unlikely to have been a significant factor when atmospheric temperatures dipped ~1910. Meehl's model showing a mechanism for this correlation between the IPO cycle and warming shifts suggests that the 'natural cycle' is a principal factor, though it would still be useful to nail down how much aerosol pollution is contributing to the effect.
Given that IPO cycles seem to last between 15 and 30 years I'm not sure we can say the shift back is going to happen 'soon'. It could be any time now... or 15 years down the road.
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Kevin C at 22:07 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
Yes, that's what I said. What I'm trying to get at is whether there are other causes which could have the same effect (or sufficiently similar effects that we would need more complex fingerprints to distinguish them).
i.e. If A causes X and B causes X, then X doesn't allow us to choose between causes A and B.
I'm just working on a model - more later.
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chriskoz at 21:38 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
I can hint Donthaveone, that easy answers to most of their gishgallop @3 can be found in Dean Roemmich video posted by citizenschallenge@1. Very nice and informative video at your fingertips requiring little effort: no need to spend energy looking for the publication and learning all of those terms and acronyms without what you won't understand the publication anyway.
In this video, Dean has shown in very simple words, that the amount of ocean warming between Chalenger and Argo is most likely underestimated. This is a simple answer to your gishgallop about "uncertainty". Have you genuinely checked it after citizenschallenge@1, you would not need post your questions, or you would post a reasonable questions, e.g. fow the uncertainty was measured and what is the confidence level of the final conclusion. But instead, you prefer to conclude:
"Too many variables combined with a very small sample means this comparison is a futile exercise"
That's pure nonsense. In statistics, any sample greater than 1 can be analysed and the confidence of how the sample represents the population be concluded. But you are clearly not interested how. I concur with Dikran.
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Rob Painting at 20:43 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
Kevin - intensification of the wind-driven ocean circulation speeds up the rate of Ekman pumping in the centre of the ocean gyres. In effect, more warm water is taken from the surface layers in the subtropics and transported to deeper ocean layers. The vertical column of water in the centre of the gyres, where downwelling occurs (known as Taylor columns), become more rigid as the ocean gyres spin up. These columns lengthen as a result of the spin-up, so warmer water is displaced vertically in the ocean. One of the consequences of this enhanced ocean circulation is stronger upwelling (Ekman suction) in the equatorial regions (stronger easterly trade winds), and a stronger poleward transport of warm surface water away from the equator (in the western boundary currents), combined with a stronger equatorward transport of cold polar surface water in the Eastern Boundary Currents.
What I'm getting at is that the trends shown in figure 3 are precisely what we would expect based upon the motion of fluids on a rapidly rotating planet such as Earth. So the effects you point out in 1-3 are in fact a sign that the wind-driven ocean circulation has strengthened.
I believe a lot of confusion still exists because of the failure to account for the effects of global dimming in the early part of the 2000's. As shown in the Roemmich et al (2007) paper I have linked to in the post, the South Pacific subtropical gyre spun down at around the same time that Hatzianasstissiou et al (2011) show a strong dimming of surface solar radiation - mainly in the Southern Hemisphere.
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Kevin C at 19:18 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
Figure 3 is very interesting and exactly what you would expect from an increase in ocean circulation.
It has a major bearing on a problem I'm wrestling with at the moment: Can OHC be used as a diagnosting of a change in forcing - specifically does the continued OHC accumulation over the last decade actually mean that there has been no significant change in forcing?
My intuitition says (and I'm working on checking it), that a flattening in forcing would lead to the following effects:
- A flattening of surface temperature trends.
- A slowing of heat accumulation in the shallow layers.
- Ongoing heat accumulation in the deep layers.
Note that this is similar, but not identical to the fingerprint of a hiatus decade. The only difference is that in a hiatus decade the rate of warming of the deep oceans increases.
If I am correct, then the continuing increase in OHC is not sufficient evidence to conclude that global warming is continuing unabated, because the oceans would continue to play catchup to the new level of forcing whether or not the forcing had flattened - you can't tell a flattening in the forcing from an increase in circulation (at least at first). However an increased rate of deep ocean heat accumulation does provide a fingerprint which distinguishes between the two.
The next question would be how long does it take to distinguish between them?
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Cornelius Breadbasket at 19:05 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
Thank you Rob.
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Rob Painting at 18:56 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
Individuals will make their own decision as to whether they find this information alarming or not. The consequences of a shutdown of the wind-driven ocean circulation could be very profound. As for previous behavior of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, given that many readers will not be familiar with this index - I'm writing a follow-up to this post.
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Cornelius Breadbasket at 18:28 PM on 24 June 2013A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt us?
Can you say how strong the empirical evidence is for rapid warming to start in the near future? As a non-scientist climate change communicator I'd like to let people know what the balance of evidence is without being too alarmist.
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Dikran Marsupial at 17:42 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
donthaveone SkS is primarily intended for discussion of science, if you want to engage in rhetoric, or blogsphere bitch-slapping, then you would be better off elsewhere. If nothing else, please read the comments policy, especially the item about sloganeering, which basically gives posters a requirement to be willing and able to discuss the science supporting their position.
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Dikran Marsupial at 17:38 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
donthaveone did you try emailing the corresponding author of the paper to ask for a preprint? Scientists are generally quite pleased to hear of people wanting to read their work and will happily send them a preprint. Most journals are happy for authors to do this (if in doubt you can consult SHERPA/RoMEo - in this case JGR is a "green" journal in the sense the author can archive both pre- and post-prints, meaning there is no copyright problem preventing the author from sending you a copy). Sometimes if you want to find out answers, you do have to do a little bit of work for yourself.
As to how can I tell intentions from the tone of a post? Well that is kind of what language is for. Ending posts that ask multiple question with a statement that shows you have already made up your mind "Too many variables combined with a very small sample means this comparison is a futile exercise." is a pretty good indication that the questions were merely rhetorical and you are not really interested in the answers. Ending posts with "cheers" is also a fair indicator - it does come accross as being somewhat sarcastic, especially following rhetorical questions. -
Tom Curtis at 17:38 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
Donthaveone @6 equals, in translation, "The world has an obligation spoon feed me for free any information I desire." Perhaps Donthaveone would be better of reflecting that his questions don't stand unanswered. Rather, he is merely too lazy (or skinflint) to seek out the answers when provided.
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Donthaveone at 17:14 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
Just checked the link and it is paywalled and the abstract does not provide any answers to my questions therefore they still stand unanswered.
Moderator Response:[DB] Only the unitiate use Google; the Wise use Google Scholar. Scholar, like a wise Rabbit, finds all...like this.
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Donthaveone at 17:11 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
Dikran,
How could you possibly tell by the tone of my post what my intentions are?
Thanks for the link.
Cheers
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Dikran Marsupial at 17:05 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
Donthaveone - if you are interested in the answers to your questions (the tone of your post suggests probably not), then I suspect that a good place to look for them would be the original study, which appears to be this one:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50370/abstract
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Donthaveone at 15:49 PM on 24 June 2013Is More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans?
Do you think it is possible to take a very small sample of data from 135 years ago, manipulate it a bit and then compare it to Argo data and then draw a conclusion of any relevance?
just some questions?
How was the equipment calibrated?
What was the margin of error in the original data?
Was the process of measuring the data the same for each and every measurement?
How accurate was the hemp rope for measuring depth?
Was the data reported correctly and consistently?
Was the data rounded up or down or did they measure down to 3 decimal places?
What were the currents at the time, could this have an effect on the results?
Too many variables combined with a very small sample means this comparison is a futile exercise.
Cheers
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rockytom at 14:47 PM on 24 June 2013Real Skepticism About the New Marcott 'Hockey Stick'
it is always easier to find fault with original research than to build upon it. As soon as this message is understood, most of the contrairians will be ignored. One of the many great aspects of "doing science" is its reproducability. Of course most of Earth Science is not reproducable. We're living the experiment. But some of it is and I notice that contrarians, deniers, and many other non-scientists do not even attempt to reproduce a research project before trying to dispute the results. Shouldn't that tell us something?
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rockytom at 14:13 PM on 24 June 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #25
The "Toon of the Week" solution to climate change has already been proposed by some of our (U.S.) republican members of congress.
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Ari Jokimäki at 13:35 PM on 24 June 20132013 SkS Weekly Digest #25
I'll just note that there will be some breaks during the next few weeks in the Facebook new research stream due to summer vacation.
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Phil L at 13:24 PM on 24 June 2013Peak Water, Peak Oil…Now, Peak Soil?
Stephen Leahy: Peak Oil refers to a non-renewable resource. Oil will reach a peak eventually, but I believe that with good stewardship, the soil is truly sustainable. Certainly there are examples of soil degradation, but I think it's important to acknowledge where good farming practices are taking place. I know people who farm in England on land that has been farmed for centuries, using scientific principles of crop rotation, and their soil is probably in better condition than it was 200 years ago. I also remember driving through southern Saskatchewan in the 1980s when the air would be dusty as the wind blew topsoil off of the summerfallow. Now there is much less summerfallow because farmers have adopted zero-tillage practices, and the organic content of the soil is increasing. Bad farming practices should be criticized, but I also believe that good farming practices should be recognized and applauded.
And I don't question the value of earthworms in gardens or agricultural soil. It's the forest soils that suffer from earthworm introduction, as discussed in the article that I linked to. -
scaddenp at 12:27 PM on 24 June 2013The Consensus Project data visualisation - a history
Reply to JM is now here.
Mods perhaps a clean up of thread with my mistake and follow ups? Very sorry about that. And perhaps move RH comment as well?
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scaddenp at 12:25 PM on 24 June 2013There's no empirical evidence
Answering James Madison from another thread. James, you appear to claiming that observed temperature rise is not in keeping with the model predictions. The reason I asked what was your model, was because it appears your broad model assumes linear increase in CO2 means near linear increase in surface temperature. In fact, if you look at an individual GCM run, (not ensemble mean), then no such prediction is made. To me, it seems you are attacking predictions that were never made. That might indeed be a problem with communicating science, but it is not a problem with the science. Surface temperatures have a very large component of internal variability. This is well known and reasonably well understood. That is the reason why I pointed you to total OHC - a better diagnostic as temperature imbalance.
If you think global warming is outside predictions, perhaps you would note that we have had a long string of La Nina/neutral phase in ENSO. This strongly influences surface temperatures. Care to make a prediction on what the surface temperature will do when the next 1.8 or higher El Nino occurs or do you think such an event wont happen again. (you can find an historical record of ENSO here).
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scaddenp at 12:20 PM on 24 June 2013The Consensus Project data visualisation - a history
Arrgh! In my efforts to move conversation to a more suitable forum, I have commented in an unpublished article! Sorry admins. I will try to find a more suitbable place.
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Stephen Leahy at 12:02 PM on 24 June 2013Peak Water, Peak Oil…Now, Peak Soil?
Phil L: I see now the mention of earthworms as part of my general description of life in dirt.
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John Hartz at 09:10 AM on 24 June 2013Media Overlooking 90% of Global Warming
Speaking of climate change, Phil Plait made some excellent points in a recent post on his Bad Astromony blog.
The melt in Greenland and the high temperatures in Alaska may be more signs—like we needed more—of the reality of climate change. Even scarier is the fact that the climate models used before didn’t predict this sort of thing. The climate is very complex, and it’s hard to model it accurately. This is well-known and is why it’s so hard to make long-term predictions.
But before the deniers crow that climatologists don’t know what they’re doing, note this well: The predictions made using these models almost always seem to underestimate the effects of climate change. That’s true in this case, too. So it’s not that the models are wrong and therefore climate change doesn’t exist. It’s that the models aren’t perfect, and it’s looking like things are worse than we thought.
Source: A Clear View of Alaska—and Maybe Our Future by Phil Plait, Slate, June 20, 2013
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Composer99 at 09:02 AM on 24 June 2013The Consensus Project data visualisation - a history
Maybe I'm the only one getting this, but scaddenp's response to James Madison is turning up as "File not found" when clicking directly on the hyperlink (at least for me) but shows up fine in the general Comments stream.
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:31 AM on 24 June 2013Media Overlooking 90% of Global Warming
scaddenp... You know, that's really interesting you mention this. I think you've exactly nailed one major misinterpretation of climate models. I've tried to explain the same thing numerous times in the comments sections of many climate articles.
Some people seem to believe that the mean is what surface temps are "supposed" to do; or are project to do. And it's nothing of the sort.
I often tell them that the ensemble range sets the boundary conditions for what we expect to see, and right now we are at the low end of those boundary conditions. But we are clearly still within those boundary conditions, thus the models are still currently correct.
If we continued with 10 more years of slow or no warming, then something is amiss. I don't expect that is what will happen. It's more likely that we are going to see another rapid rise in surface temps over the coming couple of decades.
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Deco79 at 07:55 AM on 24 June 2013The Consensus Project data visualisation - a history
Great work on the app! This will be another success similar to "The Escalator" as it shows data quickly, visually and succinctly which is very important in communicating unwieldy information to lay audiences. Very "Hans Rosling" too which is cool!
Moderator Response:[RH] Fixed link that was breaking page format.
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scaddenp at 07:42 AM on 24 June 2013The Consensus Project data visualisation - a history
In the interests of keeping discussion on topic, I have answered JM here.
Moderator Response:[TD] There's no there "here," I assume because that post is still embargoed so non-moderators can't see it yet.
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scaddenp at 07:41 AM on 24 June 2013Media Overlooking 90% of Global Warming
Answering James Madison from another thread. James, you appear to claiming that observed temperature rise is not in keeping with the model predictions. The reason I asked what was your model, was because it appears your broad model assumes linear increase in CO2 means near linear increase in surface temperature. In fact, if you look at an individual GCM run, (not ensemble mean), then no such prediction is made. To me, it seems you are attacking predictions that were never made. That might indeed be a problem with communicating science, but it is not a problem with the science. Surface temperatures have a very large component of internal variability. This is well known and reasonably well understood. That is the reason why I pointed you to total OHC - a better diagnostic as temperature imbalance.
If you think global warming is outside predictions, perhaps you would note that we have had a long string of La Nina/neutral phase in ENSO. This strongly influences surface temperatures. Care to make a prediction on what the surface temperature will do when the next 1.8 or higher El Nino occurs or do you think such an event wont happen again. (you can find an historical record of ENSO here).
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Rob Honeycutt at 07:31 AM on 24 June 2013Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Elysium... If you believe it's "so basic" then you should have no problem citing the published literature that supports the point you're trying to make.
I would first suggest that you read the comments policy before continuing the conversation.
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