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Composer99 at 23:42 PM on 1 June 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #22B
I'm under the impression that most megafauna were killed by humans: they had, after all, survived several episodes of glaciation-deglaciation up to that point.
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Nick Palmer at 22:51 PM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
noelfuller @comment 5 touches upon an important point. Anyone out there fighting in the trenches of the denialosphere, and the comment sections of newspapers etc, knows that the "it hasn't warmed for 15/16/17 years" meme is very powerful these days.
Recently, it has been clear to those who look at the whole picture, that much of the net energy from the radiative imbalance is, at least temporarily, being sequestered in the deeper ocean. But this is a relatively recent explanation and the denialosphere and media commentators tend to dismiss it as being a form of hand waving. As we are honored to have Dr. Trenberth here, perhaps we can get a definitive "admission" from the horse's mouth? Would it be fair to say, Dr. Trenberth, that the predicted trend in mean surface/atmospheric temperature was represented in the original IPCC literature as being expected to be somewhat more linear than it has proved? As you suggest in your post, there is a relatively recent (and presumably unexpected in the literature) change in ocean sequestering due, as you say, to:
"a particular change in winds, especially in the Pacific Ocean where the subtropical trade winds have become noticeably stronger, changing ocean currents and providing a mechanism for heat to be carried down into the ocean"
It seems very likely that the 15 to 20 year old science, that the denialosphere hark back to "prove" that the current pause in global surface/atmosphere temperature trends was not predicted by the science, did not explicitly predict this new ocean mechanism would act as such a temporary atmospheric heat sink.
I think most here realise that a long pause in surface temperature trends is in no way a good thing, but to the general public it looks like a) a good thing and b) that climate science got it rather wrong. Both of these sentiments are heavily exploited by the propagandists.
So, to sum up, I think the time is ripe for those climate scientists with a higher media profile, andt the climate science communication websites, to state that Earth has not behaved quite as most would have expected from reading the IPCC literature 20 years ago. From that perspective, the pathological sceptics are right that the pause was not really predicted. As they use that to jump to the unwarrented conclusion that, because the evidence now shows that the 20 year old science was incomplete, they can discount all the science. From a human perspective, the uncertainties and assumptions in the climate models, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns, if they exist, could go either way. To publicly counter the "16 year pause", so a sceptical public accepts the science again, it needs to be said that the unexpected has stepped in to complicate the outlook and the full ramifications and the concomitant risk analysis of this needs to be out there in the public arena so the public can judge whether they feel lucky or not...
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perseus at 19:54 PM on 1 June 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #22B
Re The inevitable climate catastrophe
About 13,000 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere experienced an episode of cooling (probably after a comet collided with the earth) that wiped out most species there.
Doesn't sound very likely, does he mean wiped out most megafauna? I presume this is the Quaternary extinction event he is referring to? I think the causes behind this extinction and the precise timeline are more contested than is suggested here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_extinction_event#Climate_change_hypothesis
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gpwayne at 17:35 PM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Some comments here refer to nomenclature problems - Heat, Warming, Surface temps and so on - and I've had to adapt my own punter-level commenting to address this.
I now discuss climate change in terms of 'energy'. I have found it easier to discuss the potential of climate change in public discourse if I make clear that the climate is a system of energy imbalances continuously trying to achieve equilibrium, and that if there's more energy available to the climate, then all aspects of it (extreme weather, ice melting and the energy required for phase changes, cold snaps, precipitation, fires, floods, sea-level rise, general instability) must be affected, since the extra energy is indiscriminate.
I do think we need to develop our vocabulary, and trust in the intelligence of the public. Global warming is a misnomer that we spend a lot of time qualifying, and with the greatest respect to Trenberth, I'm not sure 'heating' is a better synonym (even though it is, of course, quite accurate).
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8TM at 16:02 PM on 1 June 2013It hasn't warmed since 1998
Thank-you and sorry for the misplacement (also the all-caps.) I note Lu made the claim in the quoted interview that there has been no warming since 2002.
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8TM at 14:41 PM on 1 June 2013It hasn't warmed since 1998
Could someone please respond to the peer-reviewed paper published yesterday in the International Journal of Modern Physics B by professor Qing-Bin Lu of the University of Waterloo, COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE?
"Conventional thinking says that the emission of human-made non-CFC gases such as carbon dioxide has mainly contributed to global warming. But we have observed data going back to the Industrial Revolution that convincingly shows that conventional understanding is wrong,” said Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy, biology and chemistry in Waterloo’s Faculty of Science. “In fact, the data shows that CFCs conspiring with cosmic rays caused both the polar ozone hole and global warming.”
"Most conventional theories expect that global temperatures will continue to increase as CO2 levels continue to rise, as they have done since 1850. What’s striking is that since 2002, global temperatures have actually declined – matching a decline in CFCs in the atmosphere,” Professor Lu said. “My calculations of CFC greenhouse effect show that there was global warming by about 0.6 °C from 1950 to 2002, but the earth has actually cooled since 2002. The cooling trend is set to continue for the next 50-70 years as the amount of CFCs in the atmosphere continues to decline.”
Quoted from Waterloo News, May 2013Moderator Response:[DB] Refuted here:
This is off-topic; please return the conversation to the topic of this thread.
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grindupBaker at 13:48 PM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Agnostic #34. I'm with you. now my quibble for all, not singling you out. In my opinion the phrase "global warming" S.B. used to mean an increase in ecosystem heat content and reserved for that. To do otherwise will fuel confusion in lay persons. There are other good descriptive phrases for the various surface & atmosphere aspects, and so on. I understand that science disciplines & professions will have internal colloquialisms. I understand that surface & atmosphere has special importance for the flora & fauna that live there (not the deep fishies). Emission of ocean heat cannot possibly contribute to accelerated global warming. In fact, it would temporarily reduce global warming by reducing the radiative imbalance. I understand that should the oceans warm from present ~4.0 to ~7.0 or whatever eventually, it would not be an acceptable situation for the land flora & fauna if oceans jettison some heat into space via our atmosphere, but that does not change what "global warming" is.
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citizenschallenge at 11:31 AM on 1 June 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
James Taylor was pretty harsh on you SkS folks and this study in his latest Forbes article,
so I decided to examine it paragraph by paragraph and to offer many links to authoritiative sources countering the Heartland Institute spokesmen's crazy making via the once respectable Forbes magazine.
Friday, May 31, 2013
James Taylor Caught Doctoring the '97-Percent Consensus' Claims
whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2013/05/james-taylor-caught-doctoring-97.html
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DMCarey at 11:04 AM on 1 June 2013It's CFCs
His newest paper is making the rounds quickly today it seems. Many thanks John, this argument certainly helped the debunking process
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DMCarey at 10:52 AM on 1 June 2013It's cosmic rays
Tom,
Thanks for the quick reply! The answer is much appreciated.
uWaterloo is my alma mater, making it kind of disappointing to realize there is a professor there continuing to assert claims when faced with evidence that it's incorrect
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Tom Curtis at 10:43 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM:
1) The blog post referenced in the article above was not yours, but that by Anthony Watts, how explicitly states:
"The number of papers endorsing AGW is falling, while the number of papers with no position is increasing. Looks like an increase in uncertainty to me."
That sentiment was not attributed to you, and is unwarrented by your results. Ergo the article above does not criticize (or even take notice of) your blogpost.
Do you wish to endorse Watts' understanding of the implications of your blogpost?
2) Your blogpost seems very incomplete to me. Although it carefully analyzes the trends in papers for reject, endorse, and noposition, it does not analyze the relative trend of endorse to reject. By my calculation, a simple linear regression shows that endorsements are increasing at a rate of 0.34% a year as a percentage of papers that take a position (ie, papers excluding noposition papers) from an already high base (91.7% average over the first five years). I would be very interested to see your GLM trend and statistical significance for that statistic. I am also curious as to why you did not caclulate it in your original post, given that it is the most germaine statistic given your thesis and the headline result of Cook et al.
3) As an aside, it is clear that the increasing percentage of endorsement papers as a percentage of papers with a position completely refutes Watts' hypothesis as to why the percentage of neutral papers is increasing. Indeed, that fact shows that John Cook and Dana were entirely justified to claim above that:
"However, if uncertainty over the cause of global warming were increasing, we would expect to see the percentage of papers rejecting or minimizing human-caused global warming increasing. On the contrary, rejection studies are becoming less common as well. That scientists feel the issue is settled science actually suggests there is more certainty about the causes of global warming."
Do you disagree?
4) Your cited source on funding shows a near constant level of funding over the years 1998 -2009, a period over which self rated papers increased nine-fold. If your theory that it is desire for funding that drives climate science had any merit, a slowly increasing level of funding would be expected to be matched by a slowly increasing level of research. As a result, it appears to me that in addition to being libellous, your theory has no merit. The best that can be said for it is that it is a terribly convenient theory for people who find themselves rejecting the scientific consensus for ideological reasons.
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Riduna at 09:50 AM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Three areas which merit close monitoring are: Increased solar activity, Reduced aerosol pollution and, Emission of ocean heat. The take-home message from this article is that all three will occur and contribute to accelerated global warming in the future. The latter will, as Dr Tenberth points out, have “consequences”.
Could those consequences be to speed-up loss of land based ice, including permafrost, increasing the rate of average sea level rise and carbon emissions from the Arctic?
The result? Who can say but a rise in average global temperature of 2ºC above the pre-industrial and of 1 metre in average sea level within the next 50 years seems possible. But not to worry. I am assured we can readily adapt to such outcomes.
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KR at 08:36 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM - The self-ratings, as stated in the FAQ, were "...conducted under the promise of confidentiality for all participants". I suspect you are out of luck in terms of obtaining raw data there.
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Cook et al stated (repeatedly) that they used a simple linear regression on their data, and their analysis appears to be consistent with those statements. You have stated your opinion that they should have used different statistics - but invalidates nothing stated in Cook et al. You have a difference of opinion.
That is because, reading your post, I found that your differences of opinion regarding appropriate statistical complexity made absolutely no difference with respect to the Cook et al conclusion:
The number of papers rejecting AGW is a miniscule proportion of the published research, with the percentage slightly decreasing over time. Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.
And none of your statistical differences justify the rather obnoxious and ideological language you used - language that (to me) indicates you are approaching the topic with a pre-formed opinion:
Yet another propaganda essay masquerading as a scientific paper has been published .... The latest entry, Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature, written by a team of activist bloggers led by John Cook of the antithetically named Skeptical Science blog, attempts to further the meme of a 97% consensus of scientific support for a faltering Global Warming movement...the weak data gathering / data interpretation methodology and the truly incredible spin-one’s-head- around algorithm for generating a value of “97” which conveniently ignores a large proportion of the data.
Those statements are certainly not supported by the rest of your post. At all.
My best guess at your overall conclusion came from the line "...the Endorse group showing a decrease of almost 9 percentage points over the 20 year period." If I was wrong, if a claim of increasing uncertainty was not your point, I'm really at loss as to what it might be. Particularly since you have drawn no conclusions nor made any point regarding the 97% you seem so very upset about in your introductory paragraph.
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You feel Cook et al should have used more complex statistical treatments - fine. But that wouldn't change the papers conclusions in any way. 97% is still the percentage of papers expressing an opinion that endorse the consensus on AGW.
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John Hartz at 08:32 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM:
Your initital post had an edge to it and I am just trying to understand where you are coming from. When you speak in broad generalities, you can expect to be questioned by SkS readers and authors. You appear to resent the fact that the federal government has funded climate science research. Is that because you fundamentally disagree with the findings of scientists and scientific bodies that mankind's activites do affect the Earth's climate system?
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RomanM at 07:40 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
@John Hartz #56
Exorbitant? It's only from one source and it is not peanuts. Was this type of money even available before 1990 or is it new funding attracting people from physics, geology, biology, etc. to the new pickings? Was it well spent? Not particularly, given the overall contribution to the picture of the world at this point. However, this is not a central issue to the points in my initial post.
@KR #57
The data set you pointed to was not particullarly helpful.
It was indeed "a bit late in getting posted" so I had not seen it. However, have you looked at any of it yourself? If you recall, the analysis that I did was on the self-ratings of the authors. You might notice that that information is not included in the 2 megabytes of data found there.
The information should have been given in tables in the Supplementary document which had very little numeric content.
What specific "objections" are you talking about. My points referred to the self-rated by authors papers which clearly would have been done using the paper rather than asking themselves what was said in the abstract. And I don't recalling saying anything about "uncertainty".
The analysis issues are still there... but I don't have time to discuss them now.
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scaddenp at 07:35 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
Usual implications over climate science funding is that its just climate scientists trying to line their own pockets. (maybe this tells a lot about the way the accusers think). However, when you look at what climate science money is spent on, it mostly instrumentation - especially satellites. Scientists draw their usual, modest salaries.
As to government priorities - if predictions showed a catastrophic asteroid impact likely in 2050, wouldn't you expect governments to fund research into checking this was correct and investigating methods to avoid collision? If anything, governments are underfunding science and instead subsidizing fossil fuels. How does that make sense?
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Mal Adapted at 07:31 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM,
Supplementing John Hartz's comment "According to Table 3 of the CBO report, the annual federal budget for climate science programs averaged roughly $2 billion (in 2009 dollars) over the twelve year period 1998 thru 2009", I'll point out that according to table 3, more than half of that $2G/yrwent to NASA. The text of the report states that
NASA's efforts have been dominated by the design, development, and procurement of satellites engaged in the observation of the planet and its atmosphere and the analysis of the data that those satellites collect.
The data collected by those satellites is available to all researchers, whether they support the consensus or not. What a gravy train for skeptics!
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Bob Tisdale at 07:29 AM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Tom Dayton at 6 writes: “But frustratingly, the article undermines its own point by having the diagram labeled ‘Global Mean Temperature’ instead of ‘Global Surface Atmospheric Temperature.’ Likewise, the paragraph after the diagram does not specify ‘surface atmospheric.’ Will you change those, please?”
Tom, I didn’t find a response to your concerns on this thread, so allow me. The dataset Kevin Trenberth is using in his illustration is the NCDC’s monthly global surface (land and ocean combined into an anomaly) temperature anomaly index (degrees C). Refer to the overview here:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php
It is made up of sea surface temperature and land surface air temperature data, with most of it (about 70%) being sea surface temperature data. Therefore, Kevin Trenberth cannot call it “surface atmospheric” temperature.
Regards.
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Andy Skuce at 07:17 AM on 1 June 20132013 SkS News Bulletin #14: Alberta Tar Sands and Keystone XL Pipeline
Breaking news:
Although it is technically possible for the Canadian Federal Government to push this through, it is unlikely due to the extent of public opposition in BC, the strong position now taken by the recently elected centre-right provincial government and, not least, the firm stance taken by First Nations. There is no precedent for a large infrastructure project to be imposed on a Canadian Province against its will. (In many ways, Canadian provinces have more power than US states or even EU countries.)
Over to you, President Obama...
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KR at 06:42 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM - My apologies, but I had missed that particular link to your blog post among the many in the 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial overview.
Your objections were met in the paper itself and the FAQ - percentages of denial in climate science have remained in the <5% level, mentions of AGW in abstracts have decreased over time since it is not controversial. Abstracts are small - when I write an abstract I devote that limited space to new information and issues, not wasting it on background matters settled decades ago. Your argument claiming increasing uncertainty is simply absurd.
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John Hartz at 06:37 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM:
Thank you for the link to the Congressional Budget Office report, Federal Climate Change Programs: Funding History and Policy Issues published in March 2010.
According to Table 3 of the CBO report, the annual federal budget for climate science programs averaged roughly $2 billion (in 2009 dollars) over the twelve year period 1998 thru 2009.
Do you believe that this level of funding was exorbitant?
Do you believe that the money was well spent?
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RomanM at 06:29 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
@KR #54
I posted on this thread because the work that I did was referenced in the head post. Do you expect that if I am to reply to that referencing, I need to wander around the site looking for a "better place"?
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Tom Dayton at 06:22 AM on 1 June 2013It's cosmic rays
DMCarey, as I was trying to answer that same question, I discovered other commenters in other threads here at Skeptical Science already had answered. (What a team!)
This is merely Lu recycling the same claims he has been making for years. His claims have been proven wrong repeatedly. RealClimate has a short critique with a link to a peer-reviewed critique.
And see the It's CFCs entry here at Skeptical Science.
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KR at 06:15 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM - I have replied to you on the relevant thread.
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KR at 06:14 AM on 1 June 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
RomanM - If you want the raw data in all its glory, take a look at the papers supplemental data; I believe (based on other discussions) that the raw data was a bit late in getting posted by ERL.
Author self-ratings were, I understand, covered by a non-disclosure and are not included.
Again, the important detail is the percentage of scientific consensus - while there have been a few more rejection papers in recent years, as a fraction of published science denial of AGW remains a tiny tiny fragment.
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RomanM at 05:56 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
@John Hartz #50
You might start by looking at this pdf from the US government:
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/112xx/doc11224/03-26-climatechange.pdf
See Figure 1 and Table 1 at the beginning of the document. This is just one source of funding, albeit a very important one.
@KR #51
Am I missing something? I don't see any annual "raw numbers". "Raw numbers" are found in a Table, not a Figure. If you read my blog post at CA, you willl see that I had to digitize the Figure to get a reasonable approximation of the "raw numbers" ffor analyzing the regressions. try digitizing the red triangles in Figure 1 if you think those are "raw numbers".
As far as "living on an academic salary", I spent 40 years doing just that before retiring from my "day job" five years ago to live on a pension. I still do an online stat course for my university just to keep my hand in the academic environment.
Are you telling me that acquiring research funds is not important for a professor? I did not say that they are "in it for the money".
And yes, I am aware that the paper is "presenting percentages." However if you think that this means that the "raw numbers" shouldn't also be automatically reported, you are extremely naive.
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Dumb Scientist at 05:21 AM on 1 June 2013It's not bad
Our current CO2 emissions rate is ten times faster than the rate which preceded the end-Permian extinction, 250 million years ago. Also, I've pointed out that fossilized leaves from the PETM confirm that a rapid CO2 increase (still not as fast as today's) stresses ecosystems.
Scientists use more evidence than just first year calculus to determine climate sensitivity to CO2. Here's a figure from Royer et al. 2007 (PDF) which concludes that “a climate sensitivity greater than 1.5°C has probably been a robust feature of the Earth’s climate system over the past 420 million years”.
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KR at 05:15 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
RomanM - A fascinating choice of threads for your comment, given that your statement "I agree with some of the other comments that journal gatekeeping may have played some role in this process..." is a direct fit for #5, Conspiracy theories. Your "...many billions of dollars..." line is another denial myth, that climate scientists are in it for the money - and I dare you to live on an average academic salary and honestly say that.
The Cook paper is about and is reporting percentages as a conclusion about consensus, not the raw numbers. However, those raw numbers were given in the paper. See Figure 1 of the paper, total numbers and percentages. Your argument makes no sense whatsoever.
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John Hartz at 05:02 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
@RomanM #50:
You state:
I agree with some of the other comments that journal gatekeeping may have played some role in this process, but it seems much more obvious that the major reason for the proliferation of global warming and climate change papers is the many billions of dollars which have been allotted over the last 20 years to such research.
What is the source of your assertion that many billions of dollars have been expended by climate scientsts over the past 20 years?
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Composer99 at 04:23 AM on 1 June 2013It's not bad
I'm not sure where to post this inquiry, and this thread seems the best, so it'll go here.
I posted a link, a couple of weeks ago now, to a paper shared by Skeptical Science's Facebook page, onto my own feed.
This resulted in an intense discussion with a pseudo-skeptic. Naturally, it had nothing particularly to do with the paper. Among the various arguments was one I have not encountered before, which was made in reply to a point I made about the problems related to the rate of current change:
Your whole augment then is based not on the actual level of CO2 or temperature but that you can determine what the gradient of CO2 has been over the last 200 million years. Basic multivariable calculus just because you have a large change in the first derivative based on on variable doesn't mean that variable will dominate the function's value and to make that conclusion in any branch of science or engineering is prima facie false. Your system could simply be going through some oscillation before reaching a new steady state.
I didn't pick up on the obvious misrepresentation ("Your whole augment then is based not on the actual level of CO2 or temperature but that you can determine what the gradient of CO2 has been over the last 200 million years") at the time.
Anyway, my university calculus is, charitably put, rusty, so while I strongly suspect this claim is a load of bollocks (the notion that vast swathes of experimentally-verified atmospheric physics can be upended by basic multivariable calculus strikes me as ridiculous in the extreme) I'm not in a position to make a strong rebuttal (I did note that, indeed, trying to appeal to a principle of maths as a way of evading the evidence is bunk).
Are there any other suggestions for rebutting this claim?
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RomanM at 04:08 AM on 1 June 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
I would normally not comment on this particular blog site, however, this post appears to reference some work that I did on the sole statistical "analyses" in the paper:
Some blogs advanced a related logical fallacy by claiming that this shows 'an increase in uncertainty.' However, if uncertainty over the cause of global warming were increasing, we would expect to see the percentage of papers rejecting or minimizing human-caused global warming increasing. On the contrary, rejection studies are becoming less common as well. That scientists feel the issue is settled science actually suggests there is more certainty about the causes of global warming.
Despite the shortage of expected tabular results of the various aspects of the data, it was possible to sufficiently reproduce the numeric data from Figure 2(b). You can plot the numbers yourself. I commented on this on the referenced Watts' thread in response to another comment:
The number of papers rejecting AGW is increasing with almost half of them coming in the last five years of the study period. The percentage of such papers annually has indeed been decreasing because of the increases in the numbers of papers in the other two categories.
I agree with some of the other comments that journal gatekeeping may have played some role in this process, but it seems much more obvious that the major reason for the proliferation of global warming and climate change papers is the many billions of dollars which have been allotted over the last 20 years to such research. (-snip-).
My original criticism of the paper was that the regressions calculated and reported in the paper were inappropriately done as they were ignoring the changing numbers of papers in the various years. Perhaps you or someone else could comment on why my critiques of the regressions are wrong and/or why this shortcoming should not be corrected in the publication itself.
Moderator Response:[DB] Off-topic ideology snipped.
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DMCarey at 04:00 AM on 1 June 2013It's cosmic rays
I was wondering if someone with a stronger background in physics than I could help place this new discovery into the broader context of the scientific knowledge of climate change. I can't say I agree with Dr. Lu's assertion that CFCs are the sole cause, and that CO2 can be ruled out, but that degree of correlation within Antarctica certainly does present a strong argument.
Could it be possible that the link between CFCs and cosmic rays does indeed play a strong role in determining Antarctic temperatures, even if the role in the global climate system is less pronounced?
https://uwaterloo.ca/news/news/global-warming-caused-cfcs-not-carbon-dioxide-study-says
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KR at 02:41 AM on 1 June 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
Some observations:
- It's entirely reasonable to find a few individual abstracts that folks can disagree upon (despite the 2 or 2/3 raters who agreed on classifications in Cook et al). But that means nothing without context, with statistics on how many disagreements barry or anyone else finds. Statistics, or it's meaningless nit-picking.
- The context of AGW should be understood by anyone submitting peer-reviewed papers on the subject, as per the IPCC reports, as "Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely [>90% probability] caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years." Arguments otherwise really only make sense to people who are not familar with the field - and are hence irrelevant to the paper under discussion.
At this point, the circling of the arguments re: consensus, and the wash/rinse/repeat cycle of arguing over individual abstracts absent the context of statistics on how many are inarguable, strikes me as excessive repetition as per the Comments Policy.
Perhaps folks could reserve further comments to aspects of this topic not already reviewed ad nauseum?
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dana1981 at 01:12 AM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
John Cook covered the Lu argument in 2010. This is the third or fourth iteration of the same fundamentally flawed argument, without acknowledging that other scientists have revealed those fundamental flaws. It's BS (bad science).
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dhogaza at 00:58 AM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
There's a silver lining in the Lu fiasco ...
"He claims to have good statistical evidence that both ozone depletion and global warming come almost exclusively from halogenated compounds"
Once upon a time, this lead one Tony Willard Watts to post, with a big splash, that Lu has shown that halogenated compounds, not CFCs, were responsible for ozone depletion, thus the Montreal accords were based on incorrect science, as CFCs have no affect on ozone.
Think about that for a moment ...
Hilarity ensued ...
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shoyemore at 00:18 AM on 1 June 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
tcflood #29, it's
I was on a discussion about this (is Lu saying that CFCs lifted earth out of the Ice Ages?) when a "JohnMashey" interjected with the following information:
Lu has been on this kick for years, publishing in increasingly less credible journals and ignoring all refutations. See Gavin Schmidt on Lu:
search RealClimate for 2011 post: from ‘interesting but incorrect’ to just wrongwww.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/07/lu-from-interesting-but-incorrect-to-just-wrong/
Note that Int J. of Modern Physics B (NOT a climate science journal) did not help its reputation by publishing the absurd Gerlich & Tseuschner paper, also analyzed at RC.
True to form, the paper has done the rounds of the usual blogs and the Wall Street Journal.
So, while the fake-skeptics may twitch with fake-excitement, let's not hold our breath that this is the ex-machina solution we have all been waiting for.
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tcflood at 23:51 PM on 31 May 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Have you guys seen this paper by Q.-B. Lu at the U of Waterloo?
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1210/1210.6844.pdf
He claims to have good statistical evidence that both ozone depletion and global warming come almost exclusively from halogenated compounds.I got it off Curry's site, so even if it is 100% bogus, I suppose we will be hearing about it from now on.
I'd really like to hear what you think.
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noelfuller at 22:01 PM on 31 May 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
LarryM (18) and Composer99 (13)
Thanks for the references, I have seen them before and the one somewhere with all the circles, and found them very helpful. However, they apportion heat content rather than indicate total heat content as a line in kilojoules
which is what I am looking for. I would expect the line to be free of internal acean variability, but wobbling a bit with aerosol, cloud and solar variation but overcoming the ocean lag effect relative to surface atmospheric temperatures. Greenhouse gas buildup would be the dominant influence on the curve. However, I suspect that this is rather hard to achieve with precision.
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noelfuller at 21:46 PM on 31 May 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
owenamoe 7
I think we have to have a reference to where the temperature of some part of the atmosphere is measured and because that is generally where we can easily reach to place a thermometer in a stable position we are measuring temperature within a few metres of the soil or sea surface. I understand that we have to get up a wee bit when we want to get air temperature over ice. If we left out the reference to surface we would be in the rather silly position of implying the measured temperature was the average temperature of the entire troposphere say. We know the air gets colder as we gain altitude. By surface atmospheric temperature we are of course not talking about soil temperatures or sea surface temperatures. This measure is in some ways analogous to sea ice extent. Both measures exist because we can measure them with what we have. Sea ice extent is also subject to which way the wind blows, and I suspect to how thin the ice is. By far the best measure is sea ice volume but that is much harder. Similarly surface atmospheric temperature is also a representative measure. the easiest to record with the longest instrumental history, interestingly influenced by all the agencies that shove heat about in the ocean but by far the most telling figure if only we could measure it as readily is heat content.
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Dikran Marsupial at 19:09 PM on 31 May 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
barry Did the simulations performed for the paper include the last 200 years, and did they include the rise in atmospheric CO2 over this period due to anthropogenic emissions?
(Hint: I rather doubt they simulated the whole of the last 180 million years as this would have taken rather a lot of time to run on the computer).
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JasonB at 18:54 PM on 31 May 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
barry,
You might be better off using a category other than Paleoclimate for your checking.
Firstly, due to the fact that it deals with the ancient past, it has almost the equal-lowest "relevance" rating of the four categories (only 22% of papers were classified as expressing an opinion on the topic, vs nearly 57% of Mitigation papers and 32% of Methods papers) and is more likely to include factors that are going to make it difficult to categorise without a deep understanding of the topic.
Secondly, it is also the smallest category (6.6% of all papers), and so even if you somehow prove that every one of the papers classified in favour of the consensus should have been neutral instead, it will have almost no impact on the final result. (If you want to show a problem in general, and not just with Paleoclimate papers, then I would argue you should randomly select from all papers and not just a particular category.)
If you are going to pick a particular category, I'd suggest Mitigation: it has the highest Consensus rating (99.84% — 1,912 rated in favour, just 3 rated against; 20 × level 1 vs 0 × level 7, 418 × level 2 vs 2 × level 6, and 1,474 × level 3 vs 1 × level 5) as well as the highest percentage of papers rated as being relevant (nearly 57%).
Regarding the four papers we both checked, Cook et al rated two as endorsing the consensus and two as neutral, and you rated two as endorsing and two as neutral. Even though you agreed with Cook et al on two and disagreed on two, the net effect was the same because the two you disagreed on went opposite directions. Of course, this sample is far too small to draw any conclusions, so you might want to use the tool to try a much larger set of papers and compare your ratings with Cook et al, but the point is this: when the numbers are so highly skewed in one direction, even gross errors have very little impact on the final results, and so far there's no indication of gross errors. As Tom originally pointed out, even if half of the original authors mis-classified their papers as endorsing the consensus instead of being neutral, the results would still be overwhelming.
As for finding full papers that should be classified differently to what you would get based on the abstract alone, in and of itself this isn't a problem — it's only a problem if abstract classification is not an unbiased estimator of paper classification. In other words, if papers endorsing the consensus are more likely to say something to that effect in their abstract than papers rejecting the consensus (or vice-versa). The fact that such a large number of papers that Cook et al classified as neutral were rated by their authors as taking a position on the topic can be a simple reflection of the additional information in the paper (or the fact that they don't have to try to figure out what they mean) rather than any indication that the authors used a lower "bar" than Cook et al.
If you are going to keep checking papers, don't forget to report how many you checked that you didn't have a problem with the rating of. If you pre-filter the information to only report those that you disagree with, then we have no way of knowing what the impact of that is. Disagreeing with 100 out of 100 papers is very different to disagreeing with 100 out of 10,000.
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Lanfear at 16:56 PM on 31 May 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
"Again; if you feel this is in error, do the work. Evaluate some abtracts with your particular critera, present your data, and see if it holds up"
This indeed is why we can with confidence talk about denialists: The lack of relevant (scientific) evidence backing up their claims which contradicts the well known science.
We have a excellent example: The claimed falsification done at CRU. Why is it that not a single denialist has taken any time to actually prove their claims (thus also proving that the label denialist is false)?
The only case where the result was actually displayed AFAIK, was the BEST reconstruction, and that did not go the way the (then) sceptic crowd assumed, resulting instead to outright rejection (again without any tangible material to back them up), as well as a slew of argument fallacies such as 'true scotsman' and not to forget in one particular case, a total backtracking of earlier claim (you know who this was).
The reality is, that as long as they choose to remain as bystanders spouting their anti-scientific belief-artifacts at the scientific arena, not participating using the scientific methods (ie. 'doing the work' as KR and many others in this thread expresses it), they will, by their own actions, remain denialists.
Maybe the most comical part is that by voicing their poorly founded thoughts, the deniers are actually providing valid material for an objective analysis of the denial, as attested by the Lewandowsky et al. studies.
Another absurdity is that the denialists continuously claim that the climate science has been politisized, yet their main method of critique is that found in politics (by innuendo, character assassination etc), not science.
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Tom Curtis at 15:59 PM on 31 May 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
Barry @242:
"We have conducted four Early Jurassic experiments with increased CO2, using the explicit method; however, specifying SSTs minimizes the climate effects by previously accounting for many CO2-induced feedbacks (sea-ice decrease, water-vapour increase), thus limiting the CO2 effect to direct radiative heating."
(My emphasis)
How is that not clear enough for you?
I have already summarized this quote, including a quote of the final crucial phrase and directed you to the part of the article which contains it; and yet now you want to put your hazy understanding against the author's direct statement.
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Tom Curtis at 15:49 PM on 31 May 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
barry, this is the continental configuration during the Jurassic:
This is the continental configuration now:
The paper and abstract asserts that the change in ocean currents brought about by that difference in continental configuration between the modern and jurassic may be enough to account for a 5-10 degrees C difference in GMST. Do you wish to suggest that that is significant (or even relevant) evidence suggesting that the motion of Africa 2.15 meters to the North East over the last century has caused a significant portion of the 0.7 C warming over the last 100 years? If you do not, then the effect of the very large difference in continental positions between the modern and the Jurassic is irrelevant to warming over the last century, and therefore irrelevant to the classification of the paper (and abstract).
I have chosen the case of Africa as it currently has the largest current impact on GMST by my understanding. You may prefer to use the (at most) 10 meter increase in the width of the Atlantic over the same interval, and argue that that has significantly increased GMST. In fact, pick any continental motion, or sum of them and tell me you think there is evidence that their combined effect has caused 0.2 C warming over the last century (ie, sufficient to be statistically distinguishable) and show me a remotely plausible theory as to how it could do so, and I will accept that the paper should have been rated a six or seven.
Absent that, you are merely focussing on an irrelevancy in assessing the paper, and IMO a transparent irrelevancy.
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nealjking at 15:02 PM on 31 May 2013Skeptical Science Study Finds 97% Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming in the Peer-Reviewed Literature
barry,
I believe your interpretation of the first sentence of the abstract is absurd and perverse: It's pretty clear that they're NOT including the last 200 years within the period of study, which comprises 180 million years. For one thing, they contrast the warming of the period under study from that of "the present": You can't do that unless they're mutually exclusive. A minimization of the role of CO2 during the Jurassic has precisely nothing to imply about the role of CO2 today; especially since CO2 did not jump from 280 ppm to 400 ppm within 200 years during the Jurassic, as it has in the present era.
Further,
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Rob Honeycutt at 14:27 PM on 31 May 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
@19... "(-snippedy-snip-snip-)"
I do believe you enjoyed that, DB.
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dhogaza at 14:15 PM on 31 May 2013The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
Take solace in the fact that about 90% of climate science denialism rests on stolen e-mail from CRU and from Skeptical Science.
If it weren't for felonious conduct, what would they have?
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DSL at 14:11 PM on 31 May 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Of course! Cottonballs returns!
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DSL at 14:10 PM on 31 May 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Yah, but it seems like I saw something almost identical to this over at SoD a year ago or so. About eight comments of interchange between the regulars and this person, and off s/he went in a huff. I guess we'll see if CSR is a drive by.
Suddenly, all the pyrgeometers in the world stop working. Puckrin and Evans are taken out in handcuffs. Watts posts that he knew it all the time . . . he was working on a paper, in fact. It was going to be a blockbuster . . . -
scaddenp at 14:04 PM on 31 May 2013Global warming is here to stay, whichever way you look at it
Well with so many other sites banning him, he must be getting desparate - just not desparate enough to read a physics textbook.
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