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Comments 47701 to 47750:
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ajki at 06:54 AM on 10 March 20132013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #10
As reported by several newspapers and blogs there's a very nice visualisation (well, technically...) available on "The Future of Glaciers" as part of an exhibition "Mathematics of Planet Earth (2013)" [imaginary.org].
Another source is the webpage of one of the authors: Guillaume Jouvet, Free University of Berlin.
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Rob Painting at 06:52 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
Damn, you beat me to it Dan Bailey! I was going to email ya that this bore the hallmarks of James Dey.
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keystonexl at 06:28 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
(-snip-).
Moderator Response: [DB] James Dey, please note that sock puppetry is frowned upon in this establishment. Your previous impersonation of Judith Curry in this venue and your other many sock puppet alter egos you have used here have not gone unnoticed. Please get a life; one apart from this venue. Good-day. -
keystonexl at 06:24 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
(-snip-).
Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit sloganeering or off-topic comments. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
Moderation complaints snipped.
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JasonB at 06:11 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
keystonexl,
This is the strongest argument that climate scientists have and I don't yet have an argument that defeats that.
That's a pretty revealing turn of phrase. Most of us are simply trying to get at the truth.
What hasn't been identified is where this heat has gone. It's not being seen in either the earth or ocean temperature records which only leaves the atmosphere or my conclusion that the energy imbalance is due to instrument problems.
The problem is that you haven't demonstrated that "it's not being seen in either the earth or ocean temperature records".
Each of these records has noise associated with them. Have you demonstrated a statistically significant change in the long term trend? All I see are short term noise, and looking at Figure 2 in the OP I don't even see that, just a rapid increase. I don't draw conclusions from noise because it is impossible to do so. That's the whole point of the Escalator graphic. On top of that, you aren't even trying to look for where the heat has gone because you're ignoring the heat buildup at deeper ocean levels as well as the heat going in to melting all that ice that has been melting in recent years.
It's a lot harder to figure out the total change in energy by accurately measuring and adding up all the possible reservoirs in the system. Much easier just to check if the ToA energy imbalance measurements are being done correctly.
From your own statements you appear to have reached a conclusion that must be true and are searching for evidence to support that, ignoring contradictory evidence on the basis of undemonstrated "instrument problems". This is backwards. You should reach your conclusion after assessing all the evidence available.
Moderator Response: [DB] Please note that keystonexl has been extensively moderated due to repetitive sloganeering, unsupported assertions and continual off-topic contributions. Your diligence and attentiveness in responding to him is appreciated, as is everyone's forbearance in dealing with behavioral and cognitive bias issues on keystonexl's part. -
JasonB at 05:59 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
keystonexl,
Others have gently suggested you need to read a bit more. I strongly suggest you heed their advice and follow the links you've already been given. At the very least, before asserting that Foster and Rahmstorf's paper is not "credible" on the basis that "no credible data source has included their work", you should study this figure (a variant of that already posted above) until you truly understand the implications:
You don't even need to do the straightforward statistical analysis of Foster and Rahmstorf to understand what's going on in this graph and what the implications are, so I suggest you try. (Image from www.skepticalscience.com/john-nielsen-gammon-commentson-on-continued-global-warming.html).
Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed image width. -
JasonB at 05:44 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
keystonexl,
If every possible heat reservoir in the system was perfectly measured with zero error, and you added them all up, you would get the same change in total heat content as the top of atmosphere energy imbalance. That makes sense, correct? The change in total heat content must be the same as the difference between energy going into the system minus the energy going out?
If so, then perhaps you could show that the supposed plateau appears in the ToA energy imbalance measurements in order to eliminate the possibility that it is merely an artefact of incomplete and imperfect measurements of the heat content of the possible reservoirs within the system.
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Andy Skuce at 05:40 AM on 10 March 2013The educational opportunities in addressing misinformation in the classroom
I think that the true value of teaching in this way is that education is not so much about implanting facts or displacing myths, but rather about teaching a truly skeptical scientific way of thinking and researching things for yourself. I learned a lot of "facts' about mineralogy, palaeontology and stratigraphy as a geology undergraduate, but they disappeared from my brain shortly after the final exams. What stuck was what I learned about how to think, gained largely from interacting and arguing with professors and graduate students in labs and on field trips, and from doing my own reading outside the curriculum.
The head of the department at the time (the early 1970's) was one of the last of the plate tectonics deniers and it was doing my own reading and questioning on that subject that was more fruitful than attending hours of lectures on the evolution of trilobites. There is a lot to be said for teaching the controversy, at university level, anyway.
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JasonB at 05:28 AM on 10 March 2013The educational opportunities in addressing misinformation in the classroom
william,
While "consensus between scientists does not make something true" is correct, any statement to that effect should be combined with the observation that you're overwhelmingly more likely to be right if you accept what almost all experts on the subject believe than if you decide to believe the opposite. :-) There are very few true Galileos throughout history and an awful lot of cracks.
"They said Galileo was a fool. They said Einstein was a fool. They said the Wright Brothers were fools. What you've got to remember, however, is that they also said that about a lot of fools."
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Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
Keystonexl:
The confidence level for OHC in a single year is better for recent years than for earlier years because of more accurate measurements and a larger amount of data, specifically from the Argos that were deployed during the last decade. The same is true for surface temperatures, as demonstrated by this graph from GISS. The green bars show the 95% confidence level for the 1890s, 1940s and 2000s. As you see, the confidence level has improved by about a factor 2 during the last century.
More data for each data point is also the reason why the pentadel average for OHC 0-2000 m goes back to 1957 while the single year average only goes back to 2005.
Calculating a trend during a long period vs. a short period is different, because a longer period contains more data, and more data means that the uncertainties tend to cancel each other out and show the true signal.
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william5331 at 05:11 AM on 10 March 2013The educational opportunities in addressing misinformation in the classroom
I think the argument would have been more effective if in Chapter 23 it was emphasized that consenses between scientists does not make something true. A few examples of a clear and obvious nature like the belief in a flat earth would help. The next point would be to say that good science goes with the evidence so far known and draws the most logical conclusions from this information. However, true science is willing to modify or even completely throw out a theory if the evidence to the contraty is compelling. Science must never become a religion as happens all too often with scientists. An exposition of Occams Razor might finish this section. The same argument would be relevant with regard to teaching creationism instead of Darwinian evolution.
http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2007/08/intelligent-design-let-it-be-taught.html
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electroken at 05:06 AM on 10 March 2013The educational opportunities in addressing misinformation in the classroom
First of all, I know that you are correct about water vapor falling out of the air in lower altitudes, but what is the proof it falls out of the air when injected into it at such high altitudes as 35,000 to 39,000 ft? If you know elementary physics you know that water vapor is lighter than air and that hot humid air is markedly lighter than dry cool air. I also know that water vapor at that altitude should have a much greater affect on overall sunlight getting through to the ground. It would act like a grid in a vacuum tube to control energy getting to the surface of our planet. Dont dismiss the fact that jet airplanes also put that water vapor into the air at a very high temperature which represents a lot of energy too.
I subject to you that in the far distant past when many say that our planet was mostly covered in forests that it was most likely hot and humid over the whole globe. I would contend that it was caused by the enormous amount of water vapor in the air and that most of the carbon would have been tied up in vegetation due to photosynthesis. Where else did all those huge coal and oil deposits come from otherwise? I think your own data on co2 confirms this to be the case. So if there was not a lot of co2 in the atmosphere when all that coal and oil was being formed, what caused all the water vapor to be in the air?
I have seen graphs showing past temperature variations plotted against time where it was also shown the estimated amount of co2 in the air based on the amounts found in ice deposits. In those plots it was shown that the rise in co2 followed the warming trend and did not preceed it.
Now as to what is making the water evaporate. It does not take any higher rise in temperature to cause water spread around on the ground to evaporate. Nor the water in swimming pools and lakes etc. MAN has caused this massive change in where and how water is evaporating. Or do you want to totally dismiss the tremendous amounts which evaporate each year now to man and not to nature doing it. I think the study done showed it to be on the order of 2 billion tons of water from irrigation and sprinkling etc. This causes a massive shift in energy from where the energy would normally stay in heating rocks and sand to putting that energy into the atmosphere. The energy in those hot rocks and sand does not affect our weather to any great extent as the energy is confined to low altitudes due to the insualting qualities of air. However when you put that energy into the air higher up where weather patterns occur it can have a vast influence on things. I contend that is the major reason for our shifts in weather patterns.
Condemnnig this evaporation steps on a lot more toes than blaming co2. Farmers who irrigate would have to stop it. Vast desert areas we presently turn into greem places would have to go back to being deserts. I could go on, but you get the idea. Also we would have to curtail high altitude jet flights.
Btw the WWII bombers were mostly restricted to lower altitudes until near the end of the war. And also jet engines burn a whole lot more of hygrocarbons than those gasoline engines used on those bombers.
Moderator Response:[KC] The appropriate thread for discussion of the role of water vapour is here. Please take a moment to review the comment policy, which exists to enable serious and focused scientific discussion. Further comments on the specific role of water vapour are clearly more appropriate to that thread (where contributors including myself will be happy to engage with your hypothesis) but will therefore be deleted from this one.
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Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
keystonexl - The rate of increase in OHC from 0-2000m, while showing some pentadal variation, has not declined with any statistical significance (Fig. 3). There is also the >2000m data, as I discussed/linked here, which you have apparently not read. Again, the 9-16 year trends you have mentioned are not statistically significant, they are cherry-picked short term variations.
[Side note - while measurement accuracy has improved, that is completely separate from short term climate variation - we can measure it more accurately, but that short term variation is still there, and must be accounted for by looking at sufficient data to isolate the trend/signal (if any) from the variation/noise. Red herring.]
If you feel that there's only one page on SkS discussing ENSO variations, I would refer you to the search function at the upper left (ENSO results here), and in regards to this conversation to the discussion of Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 and 2012 - again, according to the data warming has not halted, rather short term trendless variations are being selected by various 'skeptics' to make those cherry-picked claims.
---
You've tossed around a large number of what I would consider 'skeptic' rhetorical arguments, which are not supported by the evidence. In fact, you are approaching Gish Gallop status. I would suggest you read a bit more, preferably in the peer-reviewed literature, before making additional unsupported assertions.
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martin3818 at 04:50 AM on 10 March 2013The educational opportunities in addressing misinformation in the classroom
Sorry, this is OT.
A new paper has been published in Science
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 YearsUnfortunately, it is paywalled. Do you think, you could write something about it on SkS?
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keystonexl at 03:43 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
@KR. The only thread that I've found that explicitly deals with ENSO events is the "It's El Nino" article where SkS debunk that theory http://skepticalscience.com/el-nino-southern-oscillation.htm
(snip-)
Moderator Response: [DB] Off-topic snipped. -
keystonexl at 03:35 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
(-snip-) I have to leave it here as the rules forbid me from diverting on to dealing with ENSO. I'll go to that thread to discuss that one.
Moderator Response: [DB] Sloganeering snipped. Several comments made after this were deleted in their entirety due to further sloganeering. -
Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
keystonexl (various) - OHC since 2004? Nine years? Are you serious?
I suggest looking at the 16more years thread; short time frames such as these are dominated by variation such as the ENSO, and you need to look at a longer period to see what's happening with the climate, as opposed to the weather.
There isn't a direct correlation between these (ENSO events) and global temperatures...
That would be incorrect: besides the quantitative results of Foster & Rahmstorf 2011, you might also look at the correlations seen between ENSO and swings around an ongoing trend as demonstrated by John Nielson-Gammon - plotting trends for El Nino, La Nina, and ENSO-neutral years separately:
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willard at 02:59 AM on 10 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
For what it's worth:
> Ideation is the creative process of generating, developing, and communicating new ideas, where an idea is understood as a basic element of thought that can be either visual, concrete, or abstract. Ideation is all stages of a thought cycle, from innovation, to development, to actualization. As such, it is an essential part of the design process, both in education and practice.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideation_(idea_generation)
There's no need to posit that Tony sincerely entertains the torrent of theories he's dogwhistling day in, day out. One only has to look at what's being produced at Tony's day in, day out to see how the mindframing operates.
Incidentally, Chewbacca might contemplate the possibility that Tony's smear, to work out as a joke, relies on contextual cues, the main one being conspirational ideation.
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keystonexl at 02:54 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
(-snip-).
Moderator Response: [DB] Sloganeering snipped. -
keystonexl at 02:39 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
@KeystoneXL 77-Mod Response. (-snip-)
(-snip-).
Moderator Response: [DB] Multiple sloganeering snipped. -
Cal Engime at 02:06 AM on 10 March 2013The educational opportunities in addressing misinformation in the classroom
Water vapour has not been ignored. Scientists know that it is our planet's most abundant greenhouse gas, and that it plays an important role in global warming. In fact, the atmospheric water content over the oceans has been measured to be increasing by 0.41 kg per square meter every ten years since 1998.
But water vapour doesn't just go up and stay up—excess water in the atmosphere falls to Earth as rain or snow within a week. The amount of water the atmosphere can hold is almost purely a function of temperature. So what caused the warming that's causing increased evaporation?
CO2, the gas responsible for 25% of the greenhouse effect. CO2 emissions have soared in recent history, and unlike water vapour, it stays in the atmosphere for 50 to 200 years. We've only been directly observing CO2 levels in the atmosphere and global temperatures for a short period of time, but geological evidence extends these records hundreds of thousands of years into the past, and what we see are that the two main controls on Earth's thermostat are 1) the output of the Sun, and 2) CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Water vapour is the largest amplifier of the effect of CO2, but there's a large body of research establishing CO2 as the main cause.
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Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
Keystonexl:
Notice that the error bars (95% confidence interval) in the ocean heat content 0-2000 m are much smaller than the total heat increase during the last 50 years, so there is absolutely no doubt that the increase in OHC is real!
During the same period the solar TSI has decreased, with the peak of the present cycle (24) about 0.5 watt/m² lower than the last peak in 2000-2001. That reduction in the solar forcing corresponds to about 2/3 of a Hiroshima bomb every second!
So, where has that extra ocean heat come from?
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Daniel Bailey at 01:57 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
@ Keystonexl: your comments make clear that you do not have a command of the science. As such, an agenda of more study/less challenging the science based on an incomplete understanding of it is in order.
There is an immense amount of reference material discussed here and it can be a bit difficult at first to find an answer to your questions. That's why we recommend that Newcomers, Start Here and then learn The Big Picture.
I also recommend watching this video on why CO2 is the biggest climate control knob in Earth's history. Additionally, Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming is invaluable.
Further general questions can usually be be answered by first using the Search function in the upper left of every Skeptical Science page to see if there is already a post on it (odds are, there is). If you still have questions, use the Search function located in the upper left of every page here at Skeptical Science and post your question on the most pertinent thread.
Remember to frame your questions in compliance with the Comments Policy and lastly, to use the Preview function below the comment box to ensure that any html tags you're using work properly.
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Roger D at 01:23 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
Keystonexl - If the sun is responsible for ocean temperature, without a contribution from heat trapped by rising GHGs, why do the ocean heat content and solar energy trends diverge over the previous several decades?
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electroken at 01:18 AM on 10 March 2013The educational opportunities in addressing misinformation in the classroom
I am all for this if there is some discussion made on the reason(s) why one theory is wrong and another is correct. But it seems there is little real discussion.
I do not believe all the present theory as to the causes of climate change are being considered. I strongly believe that carbon dioxide is being said to be the prime reason for change when it is only a real small factor.
I think that water vapor is being ignored because if that is the main cause then there are a lot of reprocussions to that. The vast areas of the usa which are routinely irrigated and sprinkler use to water crops are contributing to a large amount of the change but seem to be completely ignored. I can understand why since it would mean no more golf courses and manicured lawns in the middle of deserts like Nevada.
There are statistics showing that the auquifer under the middle of the usa dropped 150 feet in one decade alone. I am not sure what crisis level that has reached so far but I am sure it is not getting any better.
It seems also that putting thousands of tons of water vapor into the atmosphere at 38,000ft seems to be completely ignored and minimized when it is considered. To my knowledge, I seem to recall that almost all of our weather occurs in the lower atmosphere normally not higher than about 20,000 ft. Jet airplanes produce 5 pounds of water vapor per pound of fuel burned and they burn a whole lot of it. There are approximately 4000 planes in the air over the usa at any given time but it less than it was before 9/11. I am not sure about their fuel use but I am sure it is not insignificant.So, has anyone ever considered the affect of introducing huge amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere where it never used to occur before these jet aircraft began flying there? I hear noone in the gloabal warming crowd even considering how this might be causing a lot of what they are blaming co2 for doing.
Now this does not even consider the affect that evaporating water will have on the transfer of energy in great quanities into the lower atmosphere from where the solar energy which vaporizes it used to simply heat up sand and rocks on the ground. This large transfer of energy into the atmosphere could solely be the reason for a lot of our climate change and the change in amount and intensity of storms.At least give this some consideration. I am not the only scientist to say this and there are some on the internet who have put together some interesting facts and figures about it. It is easy to find if you look.
Moderator Response:[DB] "At least give this some consideration" To be kind, this already has been looked into and discussed by scientists.
As a condensible greenhouse gas, water vapor is a feedback to CO2 and by itself cannot make long-term changes in global temperatures. Please take that discussion to this thread if you wish to continue pursuing that.
For a discussion of stratospheric water vapor and contrail forcings, see this thread.
[KC] See also IPCC AR4 chapter 2.6.2. The literature is very extensive, google scholar can find lots for you with the search contrail forcing. That includes some research on the 9/11 no-fly - an initial paper suggested a significant impact, subsequent results were much more equivocal. There are also results from WWII bomber squadrons which are useful.
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keystonexl at 00:55 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
@RogerD, (-snip-).
The sun is responsible for ocean temperature. We don't have any other source of heat on the planet, unless you think it's being heated from below?
Moderator Response: [DB] Incorrect. See How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean. Sloganeering snipped. -
keystonexl at 00:46 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
@Tom Curtis
1. I'd agree that conduction is relatively slow compared to the land, but it's not that slow. Sea temperature maximum and minimums lag land temperature by 1 month.
2. The Pacific tropical winds cause La Nina and El Nino events. There isn't a direct correlation between these and global temperatures and, in any case, we've not had a La Nina event that has lasted for the entire time under question. The hypothesised effect of El Nino and La Nina is in months not years.
So my problem is that even if the ocean has got warmer, there is no evidence that the heat is remaining trapped and the closer you get to the surface the more apparant it is that there has been a slowing down in the increase in global temperature. Since the heat is not being trapped within the ocean, the surface temperature record is a good indication as to whether the earth is warming or not.
Moderator Response: [DB] Incorrect. See Levitus et al. Find Global Warming Continues to Heat the Oceans. -
Roger D at 00:42 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
"4 Heat rises". Not sure it's correct to say "heat rises". Warmer air rises because it's less dense. Warmer water would rise if something heated it and it could go upward. Heat moves from according to a temperature gradient.
Keystonexl - you seem to be making a somwhat similar argument to Kevin tried to in previous posts (questioning if oceans can warm in the presence of slowed surface warming), along with some other arguments that don't seem to fit. You say in one post above that "solar energy has been reducing" and follow that with statements indicating that the sun is responsible for increasing ocean heat.
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Tom Curtis at 00:31 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
keystonexl @73, what you are missing is that conduction is very slow in the ocean, and convection limited relative to other causes of motion of water. In particular, salty water (as for example, the water carried north from the north branch of the Gulf Stream) is denser than less salty water (as for example, water recently melted from Arctic sea ice, resulting in the carrying of relatively warm water to great depths. Another mechanism is the presence or absence of persistent winds blowing from east to west across the tropical Pacific. When present, it piles warm surface water into the west Pacific Warm pool, resulting in warm water being carried to substantial depth while cold water is drawn to the surface in the east tropical pacific. No doubt other mechanisms abound.
Indeed, more generally, the upper regions of the ocean in mid latitudes have near constant temperature due to mixing from surface winds. With a warming climate, those surface winds have increased in velocity (which has been observed), and increasing the depth of mixing.
And yes, the first 100 meters has warmed at twice the rate of the first 700 meters on average, but that means the first 700 meters has increased OHC at 3.5 times the rate of the first 100 meters. Likewise the first 700 meters has warmed at twice the rate of the first 2000 meters, but that means the first 2000 meters has increased OHC at 1.4 times the rate of the first 700 meters. Where is the problem?
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keystonexl at 00:17 AM on 10 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
@Leto, the article regurgitates observations of the global surface temperature record and proffers an explanation that the apparant pause in it's increase is due to the absorption of energy by the oceans. Looking at that point specifically, we know:-
1. The sun is the ultimate source of heat on this planet.
2. Solar radiation is converted to heat by interaction with molecules in the air, on the earth's surface and penetrating to a relatively shallow depth in the ocean.
3. Heat moves by conduction and convection
4. Heat rises
Looking at the evidence, http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index2.html
If you look at graph 7 here, you'll see that the first 100m of ocean has warmed by 0.2C since NOAA first started measuring ocean temperature in 1959.
Using the pentadal (5 year) average,Graph 8 shows that the first 700m of ocean has warmed by just 0.1C during the same period. You'll notice how wide the error bars are during the early years on this graph, indicating the lack of confidence in the measurements that you can actually have.
Graph 9 shows that the first 2000m of ocean has warmed by just 0.05C during the same period.For comparison, the global land and surface temperature increased by around 0.45C during the same period
woodfortrees-from1998trendSo, the evidence supports our understanding that the earth's temperature is affected by solar radiation and it's effect decreases with ocean depth and that heat rises. So, it's difficult to understand, therefore, what would trap heat in the ocean.
Using graphs which show ocean heat absorption in Joules and comparing it with Hiroshima bomb explosions is troublesome from a scientific perspective. Solar radiation is obviously a much more powerful force than anything that mankind can produce.
Moderator Response: [RH] Fixed link that was breaking page formatting. -
Leto at 23:17 PM on 9 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
Most of Keystone's comments seem to repeat myths that have already been debunked. Shouldn't most of this be moved to the 16 years thread?
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keystonexl at 22:52 PM on 9 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
@KR. Ok, so up until 50 years ago, natural forcing agents had a bigger effect on surface temperature than manmade emissions. Got that bit. But then as CO2 levels in the atmosphere have increased since that tipping point, then you would expect the natural forcing agents to have less effect each year. Correct? So, it's hard to comprehend which natural forcing agent (or combination thereof) is sufficiently strong to have suppressed the hypothesised increase in surface temperature since 1997.
There is no concensus on this. We've had varied explanations:-
1. The ocean has absorbed the heat - No detailed explanation of the physics that shows how the ocean absorbs and emits the heat over prolonged periods has been provided.
2. Minor volcanic eruptions have cooled the planet - We have these all of the time. There's no evidence that they've increased and they'd have had to continue to increase year on year to suppress the increasing CO2 levels.
3. Solar energy has been reducing - The solar cycle goes from peak to peak in a period of 11 to 13 years. We've had this temperature plateau for 15 years now.
4. ENSO events - There is no direct correlation between La Nina and El Nino events and a subsequent impact on global temperature. The effect of these events and the time lag as to the impact of them seems to vary from scientist to scientist.
The major problem is that when global warming was first raised with the general public in 1988, temperature increases had only been happening since the mid-70s, so for a similar period of time as the apparant plateau has happened recently. There was no mention of 15 years being statistically insignificant back then. The evidence for global warming was confined to surface temperature records alone and there was limited talk as to the effect of the sun, ENSO, volcanoes and ocean absorption. It feels like whenever the hypothesis is looking dodgy, a new raft of evidence is brought in to shore it up. What was originally a simple formula has now become a highly complex one.
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PluviAL at 18:29 PM on 9 March 2013What doesn’t change with climate?
Resent fidings indicate that climate change precedes plate tectonics. ie prior to Indian plate careening into Asia, climate changed perhaps related to large geologic upwelling East of Africa. It seems Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) could be much more powerful (and only?) outside force motivating plate tectoctonics (mantal cell rotation drag not withstanding) . Does anyone have any leads on this concept?
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Bernard J. at 18:26 PM on 9 March 2013What doesn’t change with climate?
"What doesn’t change with climate?"
The laws of physics...
Moderator Response: [RH] Fixed image width. -
Brandon Shollenberger at 18:06 PM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Tristan @60, I'd say no.
Albatross @61, are you acknowledging Watts wasn't "trying to insinuate that there is something nefarious and secret going on behind the scenes between Gore, Al Jazeera and SkS"? It seems like it, but I'm not sure. Whatever he may have been saying about Gore and SKS, I hope we can all agree he wasn't saying Al Jazeera was involved.
As for your suggestion, I've submitted a post to WUWT due to Tom Curtis's comments about me. If it gets published, I will ask Anthony that question as my first comment. I suspect his answer will be something like, "No, I don't think there is any conspiring between the two. I think they worked together to some extent." I hope that will satisfy you.
By the way, Watts is certainly welcome to make a fool of himself. I think he's managed to do that a number of times without ever discussing conspiracies!
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Albatross at 17:13 PM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
The very fact that Watts felt compelled to ask the question that he did demonstrates that he was entertaining thoughts of conspiracy between the parties he mentioned.
Like I said before Watts is welcome to make a fool of himself, and so are those who try to defend his ridiculous actions.
How about those who are trying to defend Watts go and ask him publicly if he honestly thinks that there is no conspiring going on between SkS and Gore? If no, then ask him to tell that to his readership.
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Tristan at 16:57 PM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Attributing something to deception rather than accident is not itself evidence of conspiratorial thinking, even when two parties are involved.
For instance, When Watts posts a contrarian climate change post by another author, are members of the climate science community engaging in conspiracist ideation by attributing the post to two cases of wilful disinformation, rather than two cases of poor scientific understanding?
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Brandon Shollenberger at 16:07 PM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Tom Curtis attempts to draw an interesting distinction between conspiracist hypotheses and consparicist ideation. Curtis seems to argue meeting any of the six criteria listed in this paper shows conspiracist ideation. However, Stephan Lewandosky and co-authors have defined conspiracist ideation as conspiratorial thinking. Does assuming nefarious intent in people you disagree with mean you're engaging in conspiratorial thinking? Of course not. Does assuming maliceful deception rather than accidental mistakes in people mean you're engaging in conspiratorial thinking? Of course not.
Conspiracist ideation is conspiratorial thinking. It requires you think there is a conspiracy. If you don't think there is a conspiracy, you aren't engaging in conspiratorial thinking. You aren't showing a conspiracist ideation.
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Tom Curtis at 10:42 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Shollenberger points out that I missed his claim that:
"In that case, I'll stress the work this post is about says its criteria are for classifying hypotheses "as potentially conspiracist." Potentially. As in, it may or may not be conspiratorial. Curtis portrays the fact something meets one (or more) of the six criteria as making it conspiratorial, but that relies on misrepresenting the paper. Meeting one or more criteria is necessary but not sufficient."
Indeed, it deserves a response, and the obvious response. He has merely shifted the subject to avoid refuation.
My original claim, which he disputes was:
"As noted by Rob Honeycutt, Lewandowski's theory is about the presence of conspiracy theory ideation, ie, the types of thought patterns typically found in conspiracy theories, rather than the presence of conspiracy theories themselves. McIntyre's post on Mann's AGU adress certainly contains conspiracy theory ideation, regardless of whether it contains an actual conspiracy theory. In this case the conspiracy theory ideation consists of attributing to malice what should properly be attributed to laziness, or carelessness."
(Emphasis added).
When he responded that, "Malice is only one part of such ideation." and that,
"I said malice is only one part of conspitorial ideation. That means you need more than just attributions of malice to exhibit such ideation."
he appeared to be talking about the same topic. But now, all of a sudden, he is talking about conspiracist hypotheses. Just to make this plain, all conspiracist hypotheses exhibit conspiracist ideation; but not all conspiracist ideation is part of a conspiracist hypothesis (just as not all suicidal ideation constitutes an actual suicide).
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:43 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Brandon... You're just not getting it.
You obviously can not comprehend what is being discussed in terms of conspiracy ideation.
McIntyre went off on a completely irrational tanget on his site. He did exactly what I've repeatedly described as "conspiracy ideation." He looked for what he believed we inconsistencies, connected his own dots, and claimed something was going on. All based only on his imagination, having asked no one involved if they could explain.
Anthony Watts did exactly the same thing. He made a post on his site and also made comments on Lucia's site claiming that SkS must be getting paid by Al Gore, even giving dollar figures, for the work. All before ever asking John Cook. And even when John answered honestly, made only the thinnest reference on his site. No mea culpa.
These are acts of conspiracy ideation. I'm sorry if you don't get it.
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willard at 09:34 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Please note how many indefinite descriptions Chewbacca's 54 contain.
Not that Chewbacca makes no sense, mind us.
Auditors may think of spit balls, quod vide:
http://neverendingaudit.tumblr.com/post/922148074
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willard at 09:30 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Thank you for the kind words, Tom.
You say:
> [I]t is difficult to imagine how [Chewbacca] arrives at is bizzare, and irrelevant, misinterpretation.
Most exercises in "parsomatic" (a term borrowed from Eli Rabett, see [1]) seem to make sure what your opponent says makes no sense.
I call this the Chewbacca conjecture [2].
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Brandon Shollenberger at 09:26 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
In my comment @47, I showed Rob Honeycutt was completely wrong about what Anthony Watts did. @48 Honeycutt responded by saying if things were the exact opposite of what he said... he was still exactly right. I can't help but see some similarity to what this paper described where "contrary evidence is often interpreted as evidence for a conspiracy." I know it isn't actually the same, but there's something to be said for finding out you got everything exactly backwards and responding by saying it doesn't change your conclusion.
As for what Tom Curtis says @51, the simple truth is I don't remember seeing a topic on any site I visit regularly that had a discussion of the contents of this paper. That's why I haven't discussed it publicly. The only times such a discussion seemed relevant (prior to seeing Michael Mann's Facebook post) to me has been in personal communication. I don't think that fact merits an entire comment devoted solely to personal attacks and accusations of dishonesty.
As for what he says @52, he claims my discussion of his wording was a non-substantive response, but he ignores the fact I followed that discussion by saying, "I'll assume that was a mistake" and explaining why the interpretation he intended is wrong. In other words, I disagreed with his wording then clarified what I thought he meant. I then responded based upon that clarification.
Tom Curtis ignored that response. He portrays my clarification as the entirety of my response. Based upon that misrepresentation, he says my "response was entirely non-responsive." He completely ignored the primary point of my response then claimed the response was non-responsive.
I don't agree with the defense of the wording Tom Curtis offered @52, but we both seem to agree it is irrelevant. As such, I won't discuss it. I'll merely point out it what I said was not offered as a rebuttal, but a clarification. It is ridiculous to say my post was non-responsive by focusing on a clarification and ignoring the actual rebuttal.
Moderator Response: [JH] Given the repetitive and meandering nature of your posts, you are now skating on the thin ice of sloganeering. You are hereby advised to change course, or get off of the ice. -
Tom Curtis at 09:06 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
willard @40, well named.
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Tom Curtis at 09:06 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Shollenberger now presents us with the novel argument that "An element is a part of something." As an example of logic chopping evasion, that response certainly takes the cake. At best it means he has pointed out that my mentioning "six independent elements" was an oxymoron, and that I should have chosen a different word (perhaps, following Lewandowski, "criteria"). As a response to the thrust of what I said, however, his response was entirely non-responsive. (Surprise, surprise.)
He is, however, also wrong in his logic chopping. An element is always a part of a set; but that does not mean that it cannot be independent of the other elements of the set. Toraunce (my daughters Labrador), is an element of the set {Toraunce, William, Lollipop} (ie, the set of the familly pets). That in no way implies that's toraunce's survival is dependent of the two cats.
What is more, the term "independent element" is common usage, as for example in Zimmerman et al, so it is difficult to imagine how Shollenberger arrives at is bizzare, and irrelevant, misinterpretation.
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Tom Curtis at 08:51 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Shollenberger now claims to have discussed Lewandowski 2013 "with several different people" and to have "spent a fair amount of time examining it". The later may well be true. On Feb 7th he asked for and recieved a link for the paper. That request, however, is the only comment by him on the paper that turns up an a google search for "Lewandowski" and "Shollenberger", or on a search for "Recursive", "Fury", and "Shollenberger". The second search, however, turns up three examples of his first chewbacca defence on this topic - here, at The Blackboard, and of course at WUWT.
So, it appears that while Shollenberger may have discussed the paper in private among those who will not be too critical of his views, there is no evidence of his being willing to discuss it with those who will show the intellectual bankruptcy of his ideas. Instead he bring up off topic points one after the other to fill the comment threads with criticizing irrelevancies so as to distract from the fact that the main post is substantive and shows the bizzarre nature of the response by so-called "skeptics" to Lewandowski 2012.
In other words, his sole tactic here is to spread Uncertainty and Doubt.
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dana1981 at 08:13 AM on 9 March 2013Cherrypicking to Deny Continued Ocean and Global Warming
snafu @67 - two simple reasons. 1) As Composer99 @68 noted, the Escalator is simply a tool to show that you can cherrypick short periods of data to get flat trends at any point over the past 40+ years. Cherrypicking is the whole point. 2) Because the bulk of the human-caused global warming has occurred since 1970.
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sauerj at 07:44 AM on 9 March 2013What doesn’t change with climate?
truthisbest (#4): ... Two suggested Links that might further help: 1) The following SkS article (LINKED HERE) does a good job explaining the physics of global warming and how changing GHG concentrations impact total outgoing radiation until when thermal equilibrium is re-established at which time total outgoing energy then returns to = total incoming energy (albeit at different intensities at the various emitted wavelengths). 2) Also, the two lecture videos (LINKED HERE) from the "German Advisory Council on Climate Change" are also very good in explaining the physics of global warming (watch both episodes #1 & #2).
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willard at 07:42 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
It might be time to ask Chewbacca if he recognizes that this claim is untrue:
> Put simply, Steve McIntyre blamed everything in this post on Michael Mann.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/04/a-conspiracy-of-one/
If we remove that untrue claim, his post at Tony's rests on snickers alone.
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Rob Honeycutt at 07:10 AM on 9 March 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Brandon... If I posted a comment on WUWT asking the readers how many people believe John Cook when he said SkS was not paid for the material, how many would say they believe it? Think about it. What about you? Do you believe it?
That is the essence of what I'm talking about.
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