Climate Science Glossary

Term Lookup

Enter a term in the search box to find its definition.

Settings

Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off).

Term Lookup

Term:

Settings

Beginner Intermediate Advanced No Definitions Definition Life:

All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Home

Arguments

Software

Resources Comments

The Consensus Project

Translations

About Support

	Climate's changed before
	It's the sun
	It's not bad
	There is no consensus
	It's cooling
	Models are unreliable
	Temp record is unreliable
	Animals and plants can adapt
	It hasn't warmed since 1998
	Antarctica is gaining ice
	View All Arguments...

Latest Posts

Myth Deconstruction - Model (EN)

Reference

Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors
Cook, J., Ellerton, P., & Kinkead, D. (2018). Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors. Environmental Research Letters, 13(2), 024018. Link to PDF & Link to Supplement

Step-by-step deconstruction

The table below is inspired by the simplified supplement and may differ slightly from what is shown in the GIF. This is mostly due to make the text fit into the available space which made it necessary to reword some of it.

1	Identify claim	Models are imperfect and therefore unreliable.
2	Argument structure	Premise 1: Models are not perfect representations of climate. Conclusion: Models are unreliable.
3	Inferential Intent	Deduction
4	Validity	INVALID Non sequitur: mistakes made have no bearing on the broader results from models which are based on fundamental physics. In addition our understanding is based on empirical evidence also.
4a	Hidden premises	Premise 1: Models are not perfect representations of climate Premise 2: Models should be perfect to be reliable. Conclusion: Models are unreliable.
5	Check premises	Premise 1 is true, although there is a hint of slothful induction in that it ignores all the correct interpretations that models have made. Premise 2 is false. Impossible expectations. no model is perfect but they are useful tools that can reproduce the past and provide insights into the future.
6	Status of claim	FALSE The argument is made valid with an extra premise but the premise is false.
7	Summary of fallacies	Impossible expectations: By definition, no model is perfect as they are simplified representations of reality. Therefore, expecting models to be perfect is an impossible expectation that can never be met. Models are useful tools based on fundamental physical principles that can reproduce the past and provide insights into the future.