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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1, 2021

Posted on 6 January 2021 by doug_bostrom

Melted ice of the past answers question today?

Kate Ashley and a large crew of coauthors wind back the clock to look at Antarctic sea ice behavior in times gone by, in Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreatFor armchair scientists following the Antarctic sea ice situation, something jumps out in this work. Antarctic sea ice enthusiasts know that science has struggled to fully and crisply explain why sea ice around the Antarctic has generally maintained or even expanded  extent, during austral winter. Hence the penultimate sentence of this article's abstract grabs our attention:

Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large-cavity ice shelves is not included in current Earth System models and may be a driver of this phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of Antarctic sea ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability. Our record, supported by high-resolution ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene ( 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth that slowed basal ice shelf melting. Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes.

Given emerging information on Antarctic ice shelf basal cavities in the present time, the authors offer a tantalizing proposition. We can hope that vigorous follow-up is the result. Ashley et al is open access and free to read. 

102 Articles 

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Contributions to Extreme Temperature Changes during 1951–2015

Attribution of Extreme Precipitation with Updated Observations and CMIP6 Simulations
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-1017.1

Revisiting climatic features in the Alaskan Arctic using newly collected data
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03495-8

Increased cyclone destruction potential in the Southern Indian Ocean
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abceed

The Relative Contributions of Temperature and Moisture to Heat Stress Changes under Warming

Uncertainty in Forced and Natural Arctic Solar Absorption Variations in CMIP6 Models
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0244.1

Increasing cryospheric hazards in a warming climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103500

Disentangling dynamical and thermodynamical contributions to the record-breaking heatwave over Central Europe in June 2019
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105446

Influence of Northern Hemispheric Winter Warming on the Pacific Storm Track
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05544-4

Trends, variability, and teleconnections of long-term rainfall in the Terai region of India
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03421-y

The differing role of weather systems in southern Australian rainfall between 1979–1996 and 1997–2015
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05588-6

Forest effects on runoff under climate change in the Upper Dongjiang River Basin: insights from annual to intra-annual scales
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd066

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Evaluation of sea-ice thickness from four reanalyses in the Antarctic Weddell Sea
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-31-2021

A framework for climate change assessment in Mediterranean data-sparse watersheds using remote sensing and ARIMA modeling
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03442-7

Revisiting climatic features in the Alaskan Arctic using newly collected data
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03495-8

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x

Characterizing non-stationary compound extreme events in a changing climate based on large-ensemble climate simulations
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05538-2

Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04467-x

ENSO teleconnections in an ensemble of CORDEX-CORE regional simulations
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05594-8

Global mean thermosteric sea level projections by 2100 in CMIP6 climate models
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abceea

Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0113.1

Uncertainty in Forced and Natural Arctic Solar Absorption Variations in CMIP6 Models
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0244.1

Controls of ocean carbon cycle feedbacks from different ocean basins and meridional overturning in CMIP6
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-487 (preprint)

Global multi-model projections of local urban climates
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8

The present and future offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05536-4

Understanding the combined effects of global warming and anthropogenic aerosol forcing on the South Asian monsoon
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05551-5

Projected near-term changes in temperature extremes over China in the mid-twenty-first century and underlying physical processes
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05566-y

Assessing nonstationarity impacts for historical and projected extreme precipitation in Turkey
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03503-x

Relative contributions of global warming, AMO and IPO to the land precipitation variabilities since 1930s
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05584-w

Multi-model ensemble projections of extreme ocean wave heights over the Indian ocean
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05578-8

Process-based assessment of the impact of reduced turbulent mixing on Congo Basin precipitation in the RCA4 Regional Climate Model
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05571-1

Estimation of spatial extreme sea levels in Xiamen seas by the quadrature JPM-OS method
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04464-0

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Impact of Winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic Sea Ice Trends and Variability
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0386.1

Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity to GCMs Resolution: A Multimodel Assessment of Local and Remote Processes in the Sahel Hot Spot

Improving reduced complexity model assessment and usability
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00973-9

Summertime atmosphere–sea ice coupling in the Arctic simulated by CMIP5/6 models: Importance of large-scale circulation
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05543-5

A study of predictability of coupled ocean–atmosphere system using attractor radius and global attractor radius
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05534-6

Comparison of GCM and RCM simulated precipitation and temperature over Central America and the Caribbean
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03400-3

Validation of a 9-km WRF dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation for the period 1980–2005 over Central South Chile
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03416-9

Sources of the internal variability-generated uncertainties in the projection of Northeast Asian summer precipitation
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05557-z

Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to convective parameterization schemes in RegCM4
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05553-3

Reevaluating the impacts of oceanic vertical resolution on the simulation of Madden–Julian Oscillation eastward propagation in a climate system model
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05587-7

Cryosphere & climate change

Evaluation of sea-ice thickness from four reanalyses in the Antarctic Weddell Sea
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-31-2021

Impact of Winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic Sea Ice Trends and Variability
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0386.1

Increasing cryospheric hazards in a warming climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103500

Climate Change Refugia for Glaciers in Patagonia
DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2020.100277

Paleoclimate

Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1-2021

Multiple Permian-Triassic life crises on land and at sea

A multimillennial snow water equivalent reconstruction from giant sequoia tree rings
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05548-0

Biology & climate change

Sensitivity of 21st-century projected ocean new production changes to idealized biogeochemical model structure
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-479 (preprint)

Vegetation modulates the impact of climate extremes on gross primary production
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-39-2021

Climatic selection and gene expression plasticity
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00979-3

Disentangling the interactive effects of climate change and Phytophthora cinnamomi on coexisting Mediterranean tree species

Radial growth responses of two dominant conifers to climate in the Altai Mountains, Central Asia
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108297

Climate changes and their influences in water balance of Pantanal biome
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03445-4

The influence of temperature and precipitation on the vegetation dynamics of the tropical island of Hainan
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03430-x

Tundra wildfire triggers sustained lateral nutrient loss in Alaskan Arctic
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15507

Post-1980s shift in the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate revealed by the first dendrochronological record from Bear Island (Bjørnøya), western Barents Sea
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd063

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Controls of ocean carbon cycle feedbacks from different ocean basins and meridional overturning in CMIP6
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-487 (preprint)

Drought effects on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in global natural ecosystems: A meta-analysis
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103501

Socio-ecological drivers of long-term ecosystem carbon stock trend: An assessment with the LUCCA model of the French case
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2020.100275

Carbon stock potential in Pinus roxburghii forests of Indian Himalayan regions
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01178-y

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Deepening roots can enhance carbonate weathering by amplifying CO2-rich recharge

A proposed global layout of carbon capture and storage in line with a 2 °C climate target
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00960-0

Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd19e

A new-to-nature carboxylation module to improve natural and synthetic CO2 fixation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41929-020-00557-y

Black carbon

Source apportionment of the light absorbing impurities present in surface snow of the India Western Himalayan glaciers
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.118173

Aerosols

Cloud adjustments dominate the overall negative aerosol radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols in UKESM1 climate model simulations over the south-eastern Atlantic
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-17-2021

Climate change communications & cognition

An Evaluation of the Utility of a Decision-Maker-Driven Climate Hazard Assessment Tool

Transforming the stories we tell about climate change: from ‘issue’ to ‘action’
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcd5a

Increasing People’s Acceptance of Anthropogenic Climate Change with Scientific Facts: Is Mechanistic Information More Effective for Environmentalists?

Scepticism and perceived self-efficacy influence fishers’ low risk perceptions of climate change
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100267

Agronomy & climate change

Climate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20406-7

Differential response of rice evapotranspiration to varying patterns of warming
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108293

Climate changes and their influences in water balance of Pantanal biome
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03445-4

Enhancing the provisioning of ecosystem services in South Korea under climate change: The benefits and pitfalls of current forest management strategies
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01728-0

Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2

Contribution of food loss to greenhouse gas assessment of high-value agricultural produce: California production, U.S. consumption
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcfdf

Reduced impacts of heat extremes from limiting global warming to under 1.5 °C or 2 °C over Mediterranean regions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/01431169408954136

Livelihood vulnerability assessment to climate change and variability: the case of farm households in South-East Tunisia
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01172-4

Factor influencing fishery-based farmers’ perception and their response to climate-induced crisis management.
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01141-x

Increased seasonal rainfall in the twenty-first century over Ghana and its potential implications for agriculture productivity
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01171-5

Climate change and crop yields in Zambia: historical effects and future projections
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01146-6

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Is working less really good for the environment? A systematic review of the empirical evidence for resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and the ecological footprint
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abceec

Temperature, energy consumption, and Co2 emission: testing for nonlinearity on USA Economy
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01176-0

Impacts of the carbon emission trading system on China’s carbon emission peak: a new data-driven approach
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04469-9

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Lifestyle changes in mitigation pathways: policy and scientific insights
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd0a9

Beyond climate, culture and comfort in European preferences for low-carbon heat
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102200

Examining the effectiveness of low-carbon strategies in South Asian countries: the case of energy efficiency and renewable energy
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01150-w

The effect of directed technical change on carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from China’s industrial sector at the provincial level
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04437-3

Growing green? Sectoral-based prediction of GHG emission in Pakistan: a novel NDGM and doubling time model approach
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01163-5

A comparative analysis on the international discourse power evaluation of global climate governance
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01180-4

No easy fixes: Government workers perception of policy (in)coherence in the implementation of the Post-2015 Agenda in Mexico
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100270

Performing accountability: face-to-face account-giving in multilateral climate transparency processes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1855098 (preprint)

Climate change impacts on human health

The Relative Contributions of Temperature and Moisture to Heat Stress Changes under Warming

Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-311-rc2

How do weather and climate change impact the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from the Chinese mainland
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcf76

Reduced impacts of heat extremes from limiting global warming to under 1.5 °C or 2 °C over Mediterranean regions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/01431169408954136

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Cross-jurisdictional insights from forest practitioners on novel climate-adaptive options for Canada’s forests
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01733-3

Assessing uncertainty for decision‐making in climate adaptation and risk mitigation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.6996

Adaptation pathways: A review of approaches and a learning framework
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.11.003

Knowledge mapping analysis of research progress and frontiers in integrated disaster risk management in a changing climate
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04465-z

Climate change impacts on human culture

An extreme climatic event and systemic vulnerabilities in the face of conflict: insights from the Taliban insurgency in Swat, Pakistan
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01738-y

Extreme storm surges and waves and vulnerability of coastal bridges in New York City metropolitan region: an assessment based on Hurricane Sandy
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04420-y

The importance of data structure and nonlinearities in estimating climate impacts on outdoor recreation
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04484-w

Estimating impacts of recurring flooding on roadway networks: a Norfolk, Virginia case study
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04427-5

Global analysis of sea level rise risk to airports
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100266

Other

The global iron industry and the Anthropocene
DOI: 10.1177/2053019620982332

Effect of atmospheric circulation on surface air temperature trends in years 1979–2018
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05590-y

Atmospheric blocking events in the North Atlantic: trends and links to climate anomalies and teleconnections
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05583-x

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Reviewing the strategies for climate change and sustainability after the US defiance of the Paris Agreement: an AHP–GMCR-based conflict resolution approach
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01147-5

 


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