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New research, October 9-15, 2017

Posted on 20 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #79.

Climate change

1. Channelized Melting Drives Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf

"High-resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40–50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate."

2. Revisiting the cause of the 1989-2009 Arctic surface warming using the surface energy budget: downward infrared radiation dominates the surface fluxes

"The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF) and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend."

3. Drivers of continued surface warming after cessation of carbon emissions

"The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO2 being taken up by the ocean and land."

4. Land surface air temperature variations over Eurasia and possible causes in the past century

"The warming around Siberia was mainly caused by greenhouse gases but its modulation due to natural forcing was also considerable because of the robust multi-decadal variations. Around China, the multi-decadal variation, contributed by the natural forcing, can explain more than half the variances in the warming. The warming trend around central Asia was intense and parabolic, and the multi-decadal variation over there was weak and showed few modulating effects."

5. Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

"Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe."

6. The dependence of global cloud and lapse-rate feedbacks on the spatial structure of tropical Pacific warming

"These mechanisms help explain why climate feedback and sensitivity change on multi-decadal timescales in AOGCM abrupt4xCO2 simulations and is different to those seen in AGCM experiments forced with observed historical SST changes. From the physical understanding developed here we should expect unusually negative radiative feedbacks and low effective climate sensitivities to be diagnosed from real world variations in radiative fluxes and temperature over decades in which the eastern Pacific has lacked warming."

7. An effective post-processing of the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME) precipitation forecasts over the continental US

8. Urban heat island intensity and spatial variability by synoptic weather type in the northeast U.S.

9. Persisting and strong warming hiatus over eastern China during the past two decades

10. Spatiotemporal variability of temperature trends on the southeast Tibetan Plateau, China

11. Global floods and water availability driven by atmospheric rivers

12. Ice and snow thickness variability and change in the high Arctic Ocean observed by in-situ measurements

13. Critical role of snow on sea ice growth in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean

14. Stratospheric ozone depletion: an unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in austral fall in the late 20th Century

15. Time-dependent freshwater input from ice shelves: impacts on Antarctic sea ice and the Southern Ocean in an Earth System Model

16. Large-scale seasonal changes in glacier thickness across High Mountain Asia

17. Differential radiative heating drives tropical atmospheric circulation weakening

18. Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations

19. Intensification of large-scale stretching of atmospheric pollutant clouds due to climate change

20. Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and opportunities

21. California heat waves: their spatial evolution, variation, and coastal modulation by low clouds

22. Exchange of CO2 in Arctic tundra: impacts of meteorological variations and biological disturbance

23. Bias-corrected regional climate projections of extreme rainfall in south-east Australia

24. Origin of Indian summer monsoon rainfall biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

25. Wet and dry extremes in Quito (Ecuador) since the 17th century

26. Influence of decadal sea surface temperature variability on northern Brazil rainfall in CMIP5 simulations

27. Harmonic analysis of 130-year hourly air temperature in Hong Kong: detecting urban warming from the perspective of annual and daily cycles

28. Widening of the Hadley cell from Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to future climate

29. Facing the heat: A systematic literature review exploring the transferability of solutions to cope with urban heat waves

30. Different influences on the tropical Pacific SST gradient from natural and anthropogenic forcing

31. Cause of interdecadal change of tropical cyclone controlling parameter in the western North Pacific

32. Predictability in a changing climate

33. How reliable are GCM simulations for different atmospheric variables?

34. Constraining the Global Ocean Heat Content Through Assimilation of CERES derived TOA Energy Imbalance Estimates

35. Global high-resolution monthly pCO2 climatology for the coastal ocean derived from neural network interpolation

36. Temporal characteristics of CH4 vertical profiles observed in the West Siberian Lowland over Surgut from 1993 to 2015 and Novosibirsk from 1997 to 2015

Climate change impacts

37. A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals

"Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range) we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea."

38. Declining growth of deciduous shrubs in the warming climate of continental western Greenland

"Betula showed a dramatic growth decline beginning in the early 1990s, when correlations between growing season air temperature and growth shifted from neutral to strongly negative." ... "Carbon isotope discrimination (?13C) in α-cellulose of Salix growth rings declined strongly during the period of reduced growth, suggesting drought-induced stomatal closure as a possible cause."

39. Assessing trait-based scaling theory in tropical forests spanning a broad temperature gradient

"Consistent with theory, variation in forest NPP and GPP primarily scaled with forest biomass, but the secondary effect of temperature on productivity was much less than expected. This weak temperature dependence appears to reflect directional shifts in several mean community traits that underlie tree growth with decreases in site temperature."

40. How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

"Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: “winners” – mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur and Q. petraea; “losers” – mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris and alien species – Pseudotsuga menziesii, Q. rubra and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as “winners”. Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face significant decrease of suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers."

41. Climate drives phenological reassembly of a mountain wildflower meadow community

"We found that both the timing and duration of flowering of focal species was strongly sensitive to multiple climatic factors (snowmelt, temperature, and soil moisture). Some consistent responses emerged, including earlier snowmelt and warmer growing seasons driving flowering phenology earlier for all focal species. However, variation among species in their phenological sensitivities to these climate drivers was large enough that phenological reassembly occurred in the climate change analog conditions of 2015. An unexpected driver of phenological reassembly was fine-scale variation in the direction and magnitude of climatic change, causing phenological reassembly to be most apparent early and late in the season and in topographic locations where snow duration was shortest (i.e., at low elevations and on ridges in the landscape)."

42. Are viviparous lizards more vulnerable to climate warming because they have evolved reduced body temperature and heat tolerance?

"Our data support one of the central predictions that lead to the hypothesis that viviparous lizards are more vulnerable to climate warming; however, this is not because viviparous lizards have evolved reduced body temperature and heat tolerance, but, because warming constrains activity more dramatically in viviparous species."

43. Adaptation or conflict? Responses to climate change in water management in Bangladesh

"Climate change did trigger or worsen conflicts." ... "The locally powerful took advantage of climate related changes in resource bases, undermining past cooperation."

44. ENSO weather and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

45. Maize seed choice and perceptions of climate variability among smallholder farmers

46. Recovery time and state change of terrestrial carbon cycle after disturbance

47. El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

48. Assessing spring frost effects on beech forests in Central Apennines from remotely-sensed data

49. Effects of precipitation and temperature on the growth variation of Scots pine—A case study at two extreme sites in Finland

50. Soil carbon cycling proxies: Understanding their critical role in predicting climate change feedbacks

51. Flood risk management in the USA: implications of national flood insurance program changes for social justice

52. Responses of phenology and biomass production of boreal fens to climate warming under different water-table level regimes

53. Disentangling the mechanisms behind winter snow impact on vegetation activity in northern ecosystems

54. Why decadal to century timescale paleoclimate data is needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change

55. The association between ambient temperature and childhood asthma: a systematic review

56. Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

57. Elevation-dependent effects of climate change on vegetation greenness in the high mountains of southwest China during 1982–2013

58. The California drought: Coping responses and resilience building

59. Species are not most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or climatic niche

60. Thirty years of multi-level processes for adaptation of livestock production to droughts in Uruguay

61. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

62. Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?

63. Impacts of ozone air pollution and temperature extremes on crop yields: Spatial variability, adaptation and implications for future food security

64. Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants

65. Water availability and environmental temperature correlate with geographic variation in water balance in common lizards

66. Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis

Climate change mitigation

67. The impact of unemployment and economic risk perceptions on attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change

"Results show that while Republican partisanship and conservative ideology are strongly associated with lower reported belief in anthropogenic climate change, these attitudes are also shaped by subjective perceptions of economic risk and increased local unemployment rates. I find that exposure to economic risk increases the likelihood of climate change denial among both Democrats and Republicans."

68. Public estimates of support for offshore wind energy: False consensus, pluralistic ignorance, and partisan effects


• Opinions toward offshore wind energy relate to perceptions of others' opinions.
• Supporters and opponents of offshore wind projects underestimate public support.
• Democrats and Republican opponents overestimate Republican opposition for a project.
• Project supportive Republicans estimate relatively equal bipartisan support."

69. State energy policy in the Trump Era: insights from public opinion

70. Dam construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin could mitigate future flood risk from warming-induced intensified rainfall

71. Getting it right matters – temperature goal interpretations in geoscience research

72. Land use of drained peatlands: greenhouse gas fluxes, plant production, and economics

73. ‘Life. Brought to you by’ … coal? Business responses to climate change in the Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

74. Pruning waste management and climate change in Sierra Mágina’s olive groves (Andalusia, Spain)

75. Large uncertainties in urban-scale carbon emissions

76. Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon vehicle transitions

77. A strategic approach to selecting policy mechanisms for addressing coal mine methane emissions: A case study on Kazakhstan

Other papers

78. Onset of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery in the Antarctic ozone hole in assimilated daily total ozone columns

"We then show that, using this best method, recovery of Antarctic ozone has actually been slow - consistent with expectations - but also very steady ever since approximately the year 2000. Our results are consistent with expections and provide confidence that the policies that have led to a reduction of the amount of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere, actually also have the expected effect on Antarctic ozone itself."

79. Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

80. Revisiting the “Ozone Hole” Metaphor: From Observational Window to Global Environmental Threat

81. Intergovernmental organizations and climate security: advancing the research agenda

82. Timing of Deglacial AMOC Variability from a High-resolution Seawater Cadmium Reconstruction

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