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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #44 2022

Posted on 3 November 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack


Usable, but unused: A critical story of co-producing the UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessments. We seem to have all the pieces needed to build climate-risk-responsive policy but often there's no policy product at the end of the assembly line. James Porter & Caitlin Clark investigate and explain how our blueprint for building public policy may be drawn poorly, and where focused research might help fix the problem.

The Impact of Renewables in ERCOT. Myth: "Clean energy is too expensive." Reality: "Summing up all benefit streams, we estimate that, between 2010 and August 2022, renewables provided between $38.7B and $106B (about $48.2B using median values for water and emissions) in total benefits to Texas residents in the ERCOT service territory." Those are net benefits to the Texas, USA regional customer base. From our government/NGO section.

Evidence of sweet corn yield losses from rising temperatures. Dahliwal & Williams in their study of 27 years of data from 16,040 fields: "Each additional degree day spent above 30C during anthesis reduced crop yields by 0.5% and 2% in irrigated and rainfed fields, respectively. This study shows evidence for sweet corn yield losses across broad spatial domains in the wake of climate change and underscores the urgency to accelerate crop adaptation strategies to sustain production of this highly popular crop." Our local back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that's ~50 miilion pounds from the average US annual crop. Technically speaking, the globe's hungry mouths could use 50 million pounds of extra corn today. 50 million pounds less is going in the wrong direction. Climate projections suggest that such losses will be an increasingly frequent occurrence, so at the present time "wrong" is where we're headed.

Improving public support for climate action through multilateralism.  Pledges and treaties have to pass muster with respective citizens of participating countries in order for governments to feel safe with buy-in. There have been questions about whether multilateralism is an important factor in public judgement of international climate mitigations agreements. Bechtel et al. find confirmation that "fair is fair" is indeed important in the minds and judgements of citizens in many countries. 

Clumsy solutions and climate change: A retrospective. Anthropogenic climate change: fundamentally it's an anthropological matter. What does "fixing our climate" look like from the perspective of anthropology? This retrospective traces the development of the anthropological principle of "clumsy solutions" to complex problems.  What is the "clumsy solutions hypothesis? "Efforts to resolve complex social and environmental issues that reach their goals combine all ways of life." The authors test the predictions of this hypothesis against climate governance outcomes.

Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation. It's becoming a noticeable refrain: making aviation sustainable may not cost very much. Dray et al. arrive yet again in an increasingly familiar neighborhood: do we care ~15% more? Is ~15% more for an airline ticket too much of a price to pay for personal responsibility? 

Impacts of accelerating deployment of offshore windfarms on near-surface climateReverberation: authors Akhtar, Geyer & Shrum do the maths and find substantial effects: "Our results suggest that the impacts of large clustered offshore wind farms should be considered in climate change impact studies."

Anthropogenic Influence on the Diurnal Temperature Range since 1901. "It's not happening." Yes, it is. The predictable effect of added GHGs on diurnal temperature swing is easy to understand, easiily captured by measurements. It's much studied, much reported, much confirmed. Here's another confirmatory report.  Why? Each independent confirmatory study brings a particular twist on methodology and different scope of scrutiny (or it would be unlikely to pass review). Here of special interest Lu, Sun & Zhang compare real world observations of changes in diurnal swing to climate model results and find that climate models replicate the overall effect while underestimating its magnitude.  

All of the above open access and free to read. 

106 articles in 55 journals by 861 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Drivers of ocean warming in the western boundary currents of the Southern Hemisphere
Li et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01473-8

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic Influence on the Diurnal Temperature Range since 1901
Lu et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0928.1

Effect of Aquatic Organic Matter and Global Warming on Accumulation of PAHs in Lakes, East China
Wan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007167

Increasing temperature extremes in New Zealand and their connection to synoptic circulation features
Thomas et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7908

Long-Term Trends of Northern Hemispheric Winter Cyclones in the Extended ERA5 Reanalysis
Karwat et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036952

Trends in the tropospheric general circulation from 1979 to 2022
Simmons, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-2022-19

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A regionally coherent ecological fingerprint of climate change, evidenced from natural history collections
Speed et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9471

Above- and belowground net-primary productivity: A field-based global database of grasslands
Sun et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3904

Quantifying the impacts of DEM uncertainty on clear-sky surface shortwave radiation estimation in typical mountainous areas
Ma et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109222

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget
Oehri et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34049-3

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
Olmo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037708

Desert dunes transformed by end-of-century changes in wind climate
Baas & Delobel Delobel, Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01507-1

Enhanced Role of Convection in Future Hourly Rainfall Extremes over South Korea
Lee et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099727

Further probing the mechanisms driving projected decreases of extreme precipitation intensity over the subtropical Atlantic
Mpanza & Tandon, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06268-3

Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model
Sena et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100267

Global effects of different types of land use and land cover changes on near-surface air temperature
Yu & Leng, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109232

Global rainbow distribution under current and future climates
Carlson et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102604

Heat extremes driven by amplification of phase-locked circumglobal waves forced by topography in an idealized atmospheric model
Jiménez?Esteve et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2021gl096337

Historical evaluation and projection of precipitation phase changes in the cold season over the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP6 multimodels
Wang et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106494

Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate
Carney et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0003.1

Projected climate variability of internal waves in the Andaman Sea
Yadidya & Rao, Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00574-8

Recent Increase of Spring Precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters Region—Water Budget Analysis Based on Global Reanalysis (ERA5) and ET-Tagging Extended Regional Climate Modeling
Shang et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0829.1

Representation of Atmospheric Water Budget and Uncertainty Quantification of Future Changes in CMIP6 for the Seven U.S. National Climate Assessment Regions
Sengupta et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0114.1

Response of Meridional Wind to Greenhouse Gas Forcing, Arctic Sea-Ice Loss, and Arctic Amplification
Chen & Dai, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0023.1

The Role of Ocean Circulation in Southern Ocean Heat Uptake, Transport, and Storage Response to Quadrupled CO2
Li et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0160.1

The roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in UK surface climate
Fereday & Knight, Atmospheric Science Letters, 10.1002/asl.1139

What Causes Anthropogenic Ocean Warming to Emerge from Internal Variability in a Coupled Model?
Silvy et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0074.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

High-resolution regional climate modeling of warm-season precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau: Impact of grid spacing and convective parameterization
Liu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106498

Influence of anthropogenic forcing on the long-range correlation of air temperature in China
Mei et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7914

On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories
Lee et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-022-00301-2

Spurious Climate Impacts in Coupled Sea Ice Loss Simulations
England et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0647.1

The impact of air–sea coupling on the simulation of the hydroclimatic change over Peninsular Florida
Misra & Bhardwaj, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06294-1

Uncertainty in the projected changes of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles
Zhang & Li, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06284-3

Cryosphere & climate change

Abrupt northern Baffin Bay autumn warming and sea-ice loss since the turn of the twenty-first century
Ballinger et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101472

Subglacial hydrology modulates basal sliding response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing
Kazmierczak et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14907

Sea level & climate change

Housing market impairment from future sea-level rise inundation
Rodziewicz et al., Environment Systems and Decisions, Open Access 10.1007/s10669-022-09842-6

Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia
Han et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34003-3


Carbon Sequestration of the Middle Miocene Sunda Shelf Facilitated Global Climate Change
Ma et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100638

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A field incubation approach to evaluate the depth dependence of soil biogeochemical responses to climate change
Guo et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16505

Climate change and species facilitation affect the recruitment of macroalgal marine forests
Monserrat et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-22845-2

Climate change related phenological decoupling in species belonging to the Betulaceae family
Picornell et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02398-9

Decoupled leaf-wood phenology in two pine species from contrasting climates: Longer growing seasons do not mean more radial growth
Camarero et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109223

Fifty years of data show the effects of climate on overall skull size and the extent of seasonal reversible skull size changes (Dehnel's phenomenon) in the common shrew
Taylor et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9447

Functional thresholds alter the relationship of plant resistance and recovery to drought
Ingrisch et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3907

Positive interactions between corals and damselfish increase coral resistance to temperature stress
Shantz et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16480

Predicting spring green-up across diverse North American grasslands
Post et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109204

Protected areas provide thermal buffer against climate change
Xu et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abo0119

Repeated survey along the foreland of a receding Norwegian glacier reveals shifts in succession of beetles and spiders
Klopsch et al., The Holocene, Open Access 10.1177/09596836221126032

Silver birch shows nonlinear responses to moisture availability and temperature in the eastern Baltic Sea region
Matisons et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126003

Temperature variability under climate change increases extinction risk of insects
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01494-3

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Cities: Allocating climate change responsibilities at planetary scale
Hachaichi, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101329

Contrasting Export of Particulate Organic Carbon from Greenlandic glacial and nonglacial streams
Bröder et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101210

Drawdown zone can shift a floodplain-lake system from a steady carbon source to an unsteady carbon sink
Jia et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109224

Evidence for older carbon loss with lowered water tables and changing plant functional groups in peatlands
Stuart et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16508

Multiple sources of aerobic methane production in aquatic ecosystems include bacterial photosynthesis
Perez-Coronel & Michael Beman, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34105-y

Recovery of carbon benefits by overharvested baleen whale populations is threatened by climate change
Durfort et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rspb.2022.0375

Response characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions and land surface temperature in Guangdong Province, China
Song et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101330

Seasonal increase of methane emissions linked to warming in Siberian tundra
Rößger et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01512-4

Species-level termite methane production rates
Zhou et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3905


3D thermal model of Sicily (Southern Italy) and perspectives for new exploration campaigns for geothermal resources
Floridia et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103976

Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation
Dray et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4

Impacts of accelerating deployment of offshore windfarms on near-surface climate
Akhtar et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-22868-9

Impacts of shared mobility on vehicle lifetimes and on the carbon footprint of electric vehicles
Morfeldt & Johansson, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33666-2

Projecting the energetic potential and economic viability of renewable power generation from municipal solid waste: Indication from South African Provinces
Alao et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.10.010

Weakened Submesoscale Eddies in the Equatorial Pacific under Greenhouse Warming
Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100533


Fire Aerosols Slow Down the Global Water Cycle
Li et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0817.1

Climate change communications & cognition

Clumsy solutions and climate change: A retrospective
Verweij, WIREs Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.804

COVID-19 led to a decline in climate and environmental concern: evidence from UK panel data
Beiser-McGrath, Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-022-03449-1

Evidence for three distinct climate change audience segments with varying belief-updating tendencies: implications for climate change communication
Andreotta et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03437-5

The role of environmental identity and individualism/collectivism in predicting climate change denial: Evidence from nine countries
Nartova-Bochaver et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101899

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Ammonia and methane emissions from dairy concentrated animal feeding operations in California, using mobile optical remote sensing
Vechi et al., Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119448

Disintegrating the impact of climate change on maize yield from human management practices in China
Yu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109235

Does climate knowledge act as a shield for farm livelihoods? Empirical analysis from the coastal and non-coastal ecosystems of India
Das et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04245-8

Evidence of sweet corn yield losses from rising temperatures
Dhaliwal & Williams, Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-23237-2

Global forest products markets and forest sector carbon impacts of projected sea level rise
Nepal et al., Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102611

Influence of warming climate and the green revolution on the optimum range of weather parameters of longan yield in Taiwan since 1909
Lai, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04255-6

Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture
Qin et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01509-z

Uncovering ecological regime shifts in the Sea of Marmara and reconsidering management strategies
Demirel et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105794

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in Tropical Cyclone–Induced Extreme Hourly Precipitation over China during 1975–2018
Liu et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0736.1

Evaluation of historical and future precipitation changes in CMIP6 over the Tarim River Basin
Zuo & Qian, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04260-9

Climate change economics

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth
Callahan & Mankin, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.add3726

Greening Keynes? Productivist lineages of the Green New Deal
Green, The Anthropocene Review, Open Access 10.1177/20530196221128369

Redistribution of snowmelt dependence and risks through international trade
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01513-3

Relationship between economic growth, renewable energy use, technological innovation, and carbon emission toward achieving Malaysia’s Paris agreement
Raihan et al., Environment Systems and Decisions, 10.1007/s10669-022-09848-0

The bioeconomy and its untenable growth promises: reality checks from research
Eversberg et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01237-5

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessment of the regulatory framework in view of effectiveness and distributional effects in the context of small-scale PV—The German experience
Schick & Hufendiek, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113310

Colonial contexts and the feasibility of mitigation through transition: A study of the impact of historical processes on the emissions dynamics of nation-states
Trent Greiner, Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102609

Community wealth building in an age of just transitions: Exploring civil society approaches to net zero and future research synergies
Lacey-Barnacle et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113277

Decarbonization will lead to more equitable air quality in California
Zhu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33295-9

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an integrated assessment model
Cui et al., Environment Systems and Decisions, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-022-09860-4

Exploring low-carbon pilot city policy implementation: evidence from China
Guo, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2140096

Fashionable Climate Services: The Hats and Styles of User Engagement
Steuri et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0009.1

Improving public support for climate action through multilateralism
Bechtel et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33830-8

The elephant in the room is really a cow: using consumption corridors to define sustainable meat consumption in the European Union
Cué Rio et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access 10.1007/s11625-022-01235-7

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Slow-onset events (SOEs) and future sustainability
Talukder et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101218

Tailoring climate information and services for adaptation actors with diverse capabilities
Wilby & Lu, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03452-6

The Association between Rainfall, Temperature and Reported Drinking Water Source: A Multi-Country Analysis
Buchwald et al., GeoHealth, Open Access 10.1029/2022gh000605

Usable, but unused: A critical story of co-producing the UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessments
Porter & Clark, Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.10.018

Who defines atoll ‘uninhabitability’?
Farbotko & Campbell, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.10.001

Why People Adopt Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors: Integrated Model of Risk Communication and Results from Hurricanes, Floods, and Wildfires
Lim, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0087.1

Climate change impacts on human health

Institutional barriers to climate change and health adaptation in Burkina Faso
Sorgho et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2125786

Prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks by hydroclimatic covariates: a comparative study of statistical models
Llop et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access 10.1007/s00484-022-02378-z


Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Women political empowerment and vulnerability to climate change: evidence from 169 countries
Asongu et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03451-7

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Pragmatic cost–benefit analysis for infrastructure resilience
Wise et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01468-5

Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future
Mulugetta et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01152-0

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, Crotwell et al, World Meteorological Organization

The authors present the latest analysis of observations from the WMO's Global Atmosphere Watch Programme. They present globally averaged surface levels for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) and compare them with the surface levels during the previous year and with the preindustrial levels. They also provide insights into the change in radiative forcing by long-lived GHGs and the contribution of individual gases to this increase. Atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all reached new record highs in 2021.

A Best Practice Guide for EVSE Regulations, Fuels Institute

The guide was prepared to assist officials and other readers understand in brief form the electric vehicle charging policy landscape in the U.S. at both the state and local levels, noting the types of policies that have been set and providing several examples of how different authorities having jurisdiction have implemented them.

Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, Secretariat Framework Convention on Climate Change, United Nations

THe authors synthesize information from the 166 latest available nationally determined contributions communicated by 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement and recorded in the registry of nationally determined contributions as of 23 September 2022.

State of Climate Action 2022, Boehm et al, World Resources Institute

The authors provide a comprehensive assessment of the global gap in climate action across the world’s highest-emitting systems, highlighting where recent progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, scaling up carbon removal, and increasing climate finance must accelerate over the next decade to keep the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit warming to 1.5°C within reach.

The Impact of Renewables in ERCOT, Joshua Rhodes, IdeaSmiths

The author quantifies the impacts of renewables in ERCOT on wholesale clearing prices and avoided fuel costs, water use, and emissions by comparing how the market would have performed with and without wind and solar from 2010 to August 2022. The author found that the build out of renewables from 2010 and beyond has yielded significant benefits and savings to Texans in the ERCOT service area, cumulatively worth as much as $106 billion.

Implementing the Steps to Resilience. A Practitioner's Guide, Gardiner et al, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations

The guidebook and its' Steps to Resilience1 (StR) risk assessment and decision support framework provide guidance and context-setting for how and when to use climate information to make better decisions. There are myriad methods for vulnerability and risk assessment, decision making, measuring and evaluating project components, and reporting on adaptation planning and implementation. The guidebook offers a set of procedures to accompany each phase of the StR so that professionals may compare their efforts and so that progress toward climate resilience may be evaluated on a national scale even while communities work toward their individual goals. The authors consider the guidebook a “building block” for climate resilience which can benefit the entire community of practice focused on climate resilience.

Navigating Energy Transitions. Mapping the road to 1.5°C, Picciariello et al, International Institute for Sustainable Development

The authors aim to inform policy-makers, investors, and companies about what is required to align their energy decisions with the goals of the Paris Agreement, based on modeled pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. They base this analysis on the first-ever comparison of selected climate and energy scenarios across the full body of published globally modeled pathways: those reviewed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), those produced by intergovernmental organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and by the private sector. The authors focus on pathways for the phase-out of oil and gas, and for the expansion of wind and solar, required to provide a greater than 50% probability of limiting global temperatures within the 1.5°C limit.

East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline: EACOP lifetime emissions from pipeline construction and operations, and crude oil shipping, refining, and end use, Richard Heede, Climate Accountability Institute

The author reviewed the environmental assessments by the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), a consortium of the oil companies TotalEnergies (France) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) for the purpose of transporting crude oil from their fields at Tilenga and Kingfisher at Lake Albert through the proposed 1,443 km pipeline to the Marine Storage Terminal at Port Tanga, Tanzania. The author's evaluation of the EACOP assessments of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the pipeline’s construction phase and its 25-year operational life is that the source identification, emissions quantification, detailed calculations, and documentation is neither reliable nor complete. Neither report presents energy use data in the needed detail for verification or additional emission calculations. The EACOP reports do not acknowledge the full climate impacts of crude oil with respect to emissions from maritime transport of crude oil to global markets, its refining into petroleum products, or, more significantly, emissions from the end use of the carbon fuels, once refined and sold to and used as intended by consumers in Europe or China or wherever their crude is refined and sold. Considering EACOP’s omissions, the author calculates these three significant emission sources which are far larger than the pipeline emissions covered by EACOP.

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: November 2022 Update, Forrester et al, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors describe income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 2.8 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2021, representing 86% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, the report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Median solar adopter income was about $110k/year in 2021, compared to a U.S. median of about $63k/year for all households and $79k/year for all owner-occupied households. The degree of income skew varies significantly across all states, but all states exhibit some positive income skew, with median solar-adopter incomes ranging from 131-168% of the respective county-median income for all households. Notwithstanding the fact that solar adopter incomes skew high, a substantial share of adopters could be considered low-to-moderate income (LMI), with 22% of all 2021 adopters earning less than 80% of area median income and an additional 21% between 80% and 120% of area median income. Solar-adopter incomes are declining over time, with median incomes dropping from $129k in 2010 to $110k in 2021, as adoption becomes more proportionately distributed across the population and has started to broaden into low- and middle-income states since 2016.

On 10th Anniversary of Hurricane Sandy, New Jerseyans Believe in Climate Change, See It as a Threat and Are Concerned About Its Effects Support for Various Climate-Related Policies, but Not How to Pay for It, Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University

As the 10-year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy approached and more than a year out from Hurricane Ida, the vast majority of New Jerseyans believe the Earth’s climate is changing, see it as a serious threat to the state, and are concerned about the effects of changing climate conditions on various aspects of life, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.


Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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