Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2023
Posted on 20 April 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Plain old climate science denial is becoming inoperable due to comical misalignment with what's plainly in front of us. Extending monetization of fossil fuels dictates a fresh approach. So, denial of reality is being replaced not by reluctant acceptance but rather mulishly stubborn insistence on something more along the lines of "this is the way we've always done it, we can't change." Given the rich imaginative capacity of our species we can think of all sorts of reasons to remain stuck in the past Climate delay discourses present in global mainstream television coverage of the IPCC’s 2021 report by James Painter & crew and just published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment finds that "response skepticism" is not exclusively confined to openly partisan media channels. As well and given our human foibles, the tone and thrust of solutions denial is ideally calculated: it's about money and personal effort. As we're all more or less prone to being greedy and slothful, this seems a potentially effective tactical combination of appeals to the worst sides of our nature. Let's try to remember that "cheap and lazy" is not something of which to be proud.
From this week's government/NGO section, Farms Under Threat 2040. Projected Climate Impacts on the Growing Conditions for Rainfed Agriculture in the Contiguous United States reminds us that what we're doing right now is leaving footprints in the future, right now. And how far away is "the future?" Very soon. The report's stark takeaway is easy to grasp: "Emissions-related decisions that are made in the next few years change the likelihood that present-day crop varieties and production practices will remain viable in a given area by 2040." Bold ours.
Arguably due to a sad history of becoming enmired in fake and intentionally overheated controversy, climate science has become the the subject of special language treatment. Words such as "disaster" or "catastrophe" are tut-tutted as alarmist in connection with climate research even as they're perfectly acceptable with regard to seismic events and other hazards. Probablilty is not likelihood but likelihood can still be assigned plausibility, and some potential emergent features of climate change are both plausible and disastrous, uncontroversially catastrophic. Just as failing to account for seismicity in urban planning is folly, so is failing to consider HILL (High Impact Low Likeilihood) events in setting research agendas. Richard Wood et al. tell us the whys and hows being better prepared for big and ugly climate surprises in A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks.
New Research includes a section on greenhouse gas (GHG) sources, sinks, flux, and related geochemistry. Compared to inquiries connected with more immediately obvious and viscerally impressive impacts such as lethal heat waves, threatened animal species and drowning cities these investigations may seem a little dry. But they're key to understanding how our future will unfold, and there are oodles of unknowns to resolve before we've a decently confidence-inspiring grip on the forces potentially at play in carbon stocks. Our section only scratches the surface of this general arena, yet over the past 10 months we've listed 650+ papers helping to establish what our carbon budget really looks like. Like self-help books for a given problem, the number of titles on a shelf may be inversely related to our full understanding of a problem at hand, and here we see a lot of titles. The stakes are large; assuming we get a grip on our own direct CO2 emissions, we're still left with a distinct chance we've triggged mobilization of carbon now stored in various forms but which will end up harming Earth's radiation budget. But— happily— flux goes two ways. For worse or better, both directions involve large numbers. In Quantifying the recarbonization of post-agricultural landscapes just published in Nature Communications, Bell et al. identify post-agricultural landscapes (PAL) as having the potential to significantly improve our carbon budget. The authors point out that important decisions spring from this, and that more confidence in our assessments will help assign to assign proper policy priorities when it comes to disposition of retired agricultural acreage. Hence, more research attention on PAL and its role in our carbon budget is important.
125 articles in 60 journals by 641 contributing authors
Observations of climate change, effects
Attribution of the March 2021 exceptional dust storm in North China, Hu et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0151.1
Diminishing evapotranspiration paradox and its cause in the Middle East and North Africa, Hamed et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106760
More profound impact of CP ENSO on Australian spring rainfall in recent decades, Ma et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06485-w
Permafrost degradation along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway from 1995 to 2020, SUN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.04.006
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and its regional impacts on rainfall in Asia, Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8078
Strengthening of the maritime influence on the Balkans in summer as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation, Nojarov, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06501-z
The pace of shifting seasons in lakes, Woolway, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37810-4
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A multi-satellite framework to rapidly evaluate extreme biosphere cascades: the Western US 2021 drought and heatwave, Feldman et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16725
Water-Mass Coordinates Isolate the Historical Ocean Warming Signal, Sohail et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0363.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
CMIP6 Earth System Models Project Greater Acceleration of Climate Zone Change Due To Stronger Warming Rates, Bayar et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef002972
ENSO atmospheric feedbacks under global warming and their relation to mean-state changes, Bayr & Latif Latif, Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06454-3
Evaluation and projection of precipitation and temperature in a coastal climatic transitional zone in China based on CMIP6 GCMs, Li et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06781-z
Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation, ?rthun et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37846-6
Historical assessment and future projection of extreme precipitation in CMIP6 models: Global and continental, Feng et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8077
Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland, Manning et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100562
Rising temperatures over the Greater Mekong Subregion in CMIP6: Present-day biases and constraint future projections, Yang et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106757
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A perfect model study on the reliability of the added small-scale information in regional climate change projections, Lenderink et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06451-6
Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations, Bevacqua et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5
Multi-time scale control of Southern Ocean diapycnal mixing over Atlantic tracer budgets, Ellison et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06428-5
Using a new local high resolution daily gridded dataset for Attica to statistically downscale climate projections, Varotsos et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06482-z
Cryosphere & climate change
Characteristics of near-surface soil freeze–thaw status using high resolution CLM5.0 simulations on the Tibetan Plateau, Peng et al., Atmospheric Science Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1168
Permafrost degradation along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway from 1995 to 2020, SUN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.04.006
Sea level & climate change
Author Correction: Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels, Tebaldi et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01665-w
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Hot Rocks: Interpreting Extremes of Earth Surface Temperatures from the Geologic Record, Suarez, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023pa004641
Multiple episodes of ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during the Last Interglacial, Iizuka et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37325-y
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Assisted tree migration can reduce but not avert the decline of forest ecosystem services in Europe, Mauri et al., Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102676
Carryover effects from environmental change in early life: an overlooked driver of the amphibian extinction crisis?, Lundsgaard et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16726
Climate change impacts on Mediterranean vegetation are amplified at low altitudes, Saatkamp et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13682
Diverse responses of canopy conductance to heatwaves, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109453
Emergent Constraint for Future Decline in Arctic Phytoplankton Concentration, Noh et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003427
Estimating Individual Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada Using Lidar and Multispectral Reflectance Data, Hemming?Schroeder et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007234
Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential, Richards et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16719
Niche modelling predicts that soil fungi occupy a precarious climate in boreal forests, Qin et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13684
Physiologically vulnerable or resilient? Tropical birds, global warming, and redistributions, Monge et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9985
Seasonal dynamics of primary production in the southeastern Bering Sea assessed using continuous temporal and vertical dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a measurements, Nielsen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019076
Shifts in the composition and distribution of Pacific Arctic larval fish assemblages in response to rapid ecosystem change, Axler et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16721
Stomatal responses of terrestrial plants to global change, Liang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37934-7
The effects of intrinsic water-use efficiency and climate on wood anatomy, Hong et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-023-02475-7
The forest resistance to droughts differentiated by tree height in central Europe, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2021jg006668
Tree biodiversity of warm drylands is likely to decline in a drier world, Cartereau et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16722
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A simple concept for estimating deadwood carbon in forests, Neumann et al., Carbon Management, Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2023.2197762
Assessing the impact of the global subsea telecommunications network on sedimentary organic carbon stocks, Clare et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37854-6
Biogeochemical River Runoff Drives Intense Coastal Arctic Ocean CO2 Outgassing, Bertin et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102377
Differences in respiration components and their dominant regulating factors across three alpine grasslands on the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau, Ya-Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.04.005
Differential Controls of Greenhouse Gas (CO2, CH4, and N2O) concentrations in Natural and Constructed Agricultural Waterbodies on the Northern Great Plains, Jensen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007261
Evaluation of the methane paradox in four adjacent pre-alpine lakes across a trophic gradient, Ordóñez et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37861-7
Identifying the biological control of the interannual and long-term variations in South Atlantic air-sea CO2 flux, Ford et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-54
Linking Dissolved Organic Matter to CO2 and CH4 Concentrations in Canadian and Chilean Peatland Pools, Hassan et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2023gb007715
Nutrient release and flux dynamics of CO2, CH4 and N2O in a coastal peatland driven by actively induced rewetting with brackish water from the Baltic Sea, Pönisch et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-117
Quantifying the recarbonization of post-agricultural landscapes, Bell et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37907-w
Recent trends and variability in the oceanic storage of dissolved inorganic carbon, Keppler et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Open Access 10.1029/2022gb007677
Soil Respiration Responses to Throughfall Exclusion Are Decoupled From Changes in Soil Moisture for Four Tropical Forests, Suggesting Processes for Ecosystem Models, Cusack et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gb007473
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Stabilization of mineral-associated organic carbon in Pleistocene permafrost, Martens et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37766-5
The value of ecosystem services in global marine kelp forests, Eger et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37385-0
Decarbonization
Analysing wind power ramp events and improving very short-term wind power predictions by including wind speed observations, Lochmann et al., Wind Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1002/we.2816
Challenges resulting from urban density and climate change for the EU energy transition, Perera et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-023-01232-9
Cost versus environment? Combined life cycle, techno-economic, and circularity assessment of silicon- and perovskite-based photovoltaic systems, Bartie et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13389
Evaluation of the environmental impact of a plastic sprayer through life cycle assessment: an industrial case study, Valentini & Dorigato, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13762-023-04925-6
Impact of biopower generation on eastern US forests, Mirzaee et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02235-4
Inorganic wide-bandgap perovskite subcells with dipole bridge for all-perovskite tandems, Li et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-023-01250-7
Internal quantum efficiency higher than 100% achieved by combining doping and quantum effects for photocatalytic overall water splitting, Zhang et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-023-01242-7
Lithium Plating and Stripping: Toward Anode-Free Solid-State Batteries, Zor et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300001
Projected cross-shore changes in upwelling induced by offshore wind farm development along the California coast, Raghukumar et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00780-y
Rapid decarbonisation of Paris, Lyon and Marseille's power, transport and building sectors by coupling rooftop solar PV and electric vehicles, Arowolo & Perez, Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.04.002
Sustainability contribution of hybrid solar collector towards net-zero energy buildings concerning solar cells wasted heat, Alshibil et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.04.001
Visual impact assessment of renewable energy developments with the application of multi-criteria decision-making method, Darabi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02209-6
Geoengineering climate
A systematic literature review considering the implementation of planetary geoengineering techniques for the mitigation of sea-level rise, Minunno et al., Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104431
Aerosols
Strong anthropogenic cloud perturbations can persist for multiple days, Toll & Rahu, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd038146
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate delay discourses present in global mainstream television coverage of the IPCC’s 2021 report, Painter et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00760-2
COVID-19 and climate change: The social-psychological roots of conflict and conflict interventions during global crises, Burrows et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.837
Discrepant implicit and explicit attitudes toward climate change: implications for climate change communications, Gong et al., Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-023-01320-5
Text Mining Attitudes toward Climate Change: Emotion and Sentiment Analysis of the Twitter Corpus, Mi & Zhan, Weather, Climate, and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0123.1
The climate change research that makes the front page: Is it fit to engage societal action?, Perga et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102675
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Anaerobic co-digestion of grass and cow manure: kinetic and GHG calculations, Ulukardesler, Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-33169-0
Hierarchy of value orientation and beliefs in climate change influencing the farmers’ extractive or non-extractive behavior on the farm, Karami, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03215-y
Milk production from family agro-industries in São Paulo state: Carbon balance accounting, Silva et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-023-02157-x
Scalable, economical, and stable sequestration of agricultural fixed carbon, Yablonovitch & Deckman Yablonovitch, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2217695120
The effects of climate change on food production in India: evidence from the ARDL model, Ahmed et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03209-w
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessment of hydro-climatic trends in a drought-prone region of Maharashtra (India) with reference to rainfed agriculture, Todmal, Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-023-02044-z
Geomorphic response of low-gradient, meandering and braided alluvial river channels to increased sediment supply, Kemper et al., Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104429
Land surface processes are the dominant driver of global runoff increase, , Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01666-9
MOPREDAS¢ury database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060
Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes, Zhou et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01659-8
Projections of Global Land Runoff Changes and Their Uncertainty Characteristics During the 21st Century, Miao et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003286
The extremely wet spring of 2022 in Southwest China was driven by La Niña and Tibetan Plateau warming, Liu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106758
The Link Between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Rainfall Trends in Northwest Australia, Borowiak et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl101799
Climate change economics
A region-scale decoupling effort analysis of carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of electric power industry: a case study of China, Li et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02232-7
CO2 emissions and income growth in Latin America: long-term patterns and determinants, Seri & de Juan Fernández, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02211-y
Evaluating current effects of upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Evidence from China's futures market, Lin & Zhao, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113573
FDI and CO2 emissions in developing countries: the role of human capital, Khan et al., Natural Hazards, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-05949-4
The impact of financial tools in environmental degradation management: the relationship between Co2 emission and ESG funds, Tuna et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03229-6
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A dynamic model for CO2 emissions induced by urban transportation during 2005–2030, a case study of Mashhad, Iran, Heidari et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02240-7
A low-carbon electricity sector in Europe risks sustaining regional inequalities in benefits and vulnerabilities, Sasse & Trutnevyte, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37946-3
A step toward tourism development: do economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions matter? Evidence from Pakistan, Kumail et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02226-5
Alternative governmental carbon policies on populations of green and non-green supply chains in a competitive market, Nersesian et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02237-2
California's ambitious greenhouse gas policies: Are they ambitious enough?, Johnson, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113545
Climate targets in European timber-producing countries conflict with goals on forest ecosystem services and biodiversity, Blattert et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00771-z
German citizens’ preference for domestic carbon dioxide removal by afforestation is incompatible with national removal potential, Merk et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00713-9
How do past global experiences of coal phase-out inform China’s domestic approach to a just transition?, Sharma et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01312-5
Implementing the energy transition: lessons from New Jersey’s residential solar industry, Kocakusak et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2023.2202208
Lost in action: Climate friendly use of European peatlands needs coherence and incentive-based policies, Chen et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.04.010
Measuring policy coherence on global access to clean energy between European countries, Coscieme et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10058-5
Nuclear power generation phase-outs redistribute US air quality and climate-related mortality risk, Freese et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-023-01241-8
Reducing carbon emissions in Egyptian roads through improving the streets quality, Moussa, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02150-8
Regional variability and its impact on the decarbonization of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industries in Canada, Diner et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2023.2200380
Strategic drivers for sustainable implementation of carbon trading in India, Bansal et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02205-w
The multi-decadal response to net zero CO2 emissions and implications for emissions policy, Jenkins et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl101047
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks, Wood et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003369
A framework to assess multi-hazard physical climate risk for power generation projects from publicly-accessible sources, Luo et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00782-w
A response framework for addressing the risks of climate change for homeless populations, Kidd et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2023.2194280
Climate change vulnerability hotspots in Costa Rica: constructing a sub-national index, Nawrotzki et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-023-00831-y
Constructing the adaptation economy: Climate resilient development and the economization of vulnerability, Friedman, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102673
Interactions between migrant race and social status in predicting acceptance of climate migrants in Norway, Bye et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03523-2
Living on the Margins: Climate change impacts and adaptation by remote communities living in the Pacific Islands, the Himalaya and desert Australia, Race et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100503
What drives local climate change adaptation? A qualitative comparative analysis, Braunschweiger & Ingold , Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.03.013
Climate change impacts on human health
Establishing a baseline for thermal stress conditions – A high-resolution radiative perspective, Weeding et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101523
Human health and climate change in the Pacific: a review of current knowledge, Bowen et al., Climate and Development, Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2023.2185479
Other
Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881
Long-term variabilities in thermal structure, CO2 concentration and associated cooling rates in the Earth's middle atmosphere: Observations and model simulations, Pramitha et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar, 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106070
Objectively combining climate sensitivity evidence, Lewis, Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06468-x
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Event attribution is not ready for a major role in loss and damage, King et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01651-2
International collaboration in climate technology innovation: the Italian experience in Mission Innovation, Capra & La Motta, Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-023-01314-3
Our responsibility to future generations: The case for intergenerational approaches to the study of climate change, Syropoulos & Markowitz, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102006
Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments, van Maanen et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01644-1
Research needs for a food system transition, McDermid et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03507-2
Quantifying the recarbonization of post-agricultural landscapes, Bell et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37907-w
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Lazard's levelized cost of energy, storage and hydrogen analysis, Lazard
Lazard undertakes an annual detailed analysis of the levelized costs of energy (LCOE) from various generation technologies, energy storage technologies, and hydrogen production methods. For example, the LCOE analysis reinforces what the observation across the Power, Energy & Infrastructure Industry—companies of scale that can take advantage of supply chain and other economies of scale will continue to lead the buildout of new renewable assets given the observed LCOE declines for best-in-class renewable generation relative to smaller or more regionally-focused companies that have seen moderate to significant LCOE increases—a trend that will lead to ongoing consolidation across the sector as well as the development of evolved business models and strategies to address supply chain and scale considerations.
Banking on Climate Chaos. Fossil Fuel Finance Report 2023, Rainforest Action Network and partner organizations
Fossil fuel financing from the world’s 60 largest banks has reached USD $5.5 trillion in the seven years since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, with $673 billion in fossil fuel financing in 2022 alone. The authors examine commercial and investment bank financing for the fossil fuel industry, aggregating their leading roles in lending and underwriting debt and equity issuances. Fossil fuel financing plateaued in 2020, rebounded in 2021 and leveled out again in 2022 owing to unusual geopolitical and economic conditions, not shifts in bank policy. Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), ranks #1 as the worst financier of fossil fuels. RBC provided fossil fuel companies $42.1 billion in 2022, an increase over its 2021 financing, making for a total of $253 billion since 2016. JPMorgan Chase continues to be the worst bank overall since the Paris Agreement. It financed $39 billion in 2022, making a total of $434 billion since 2016. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) ranks as the worst of the Asian banks, financing $29.5 billion, and French bank BNP Paribas is the worst in Europe, financing $20.8 billion in 2022.
Electric Vehicle Dynamic Charging Performance Characteristics during Bulk Power System Disturbances, North American Electric Reliability Corporation
The authors highlight the need for collaboration between electric utilities and the electric vehicle (EV)/electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) manufacturing industry to develop strategies that will help ensure bulk power system (BPS) reliability, resilience, and security. The authors focus on an area that is relatively unexplored: EV charging behavior during infrequent grid disturbances that originate from the BPS. These events last no more than a few seconds but may have catastrophic consequences for grid reliability if left unchecked (i.e., cascading blackouts and widespread power interruptions). There is a need for early engagement and information exchange between the electric utilities and the EV/EVSE manufacturing industry to facilitate anticipation and timely resolution of potential grid reliability issues. Mitigating these issues includes changing EV charger and EVSE operation during these infrequent, short-duration events.
America’s Most Endangered Rivers® of 2023, American Rivers
Two-thirds of our water comes from rivers. Rural and urban areas depend on rivers for clean drinking water, food production, economic vitality, and cultural connection. Rivers provide natural habitat indispensable to fish, birds, and other aquatic and land animals. Like the veins and arteries in our own bodies, our health and our future are directly linked to our rivers. But too many of our rivers are sick. Forty-four percent of waterways in the United States are too polluted for fishing or swimming, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. Freshwater species are going extinct faster than ocean or land species, and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems on the planet. Meanwhile, climate change is fueling more severe floods and droughts — and unjust policies put the burden of all these impacts disproportionately on communities of color and tribal nations. Healthy rivers are essential to human health and public safety. When rivers are sick, people and nature suffer. The 10 rivers on this year’s endangered list underscore how health and safety are threatened by climate change, pollution, dams, and other threats to rivers.
State of the Bats, Bat Conservation International
Experts now estimate that 52% of bat species in North America are at risk of populations declining severely in the next 15 years.1 As the scope and severity of threats increase, so does the need for collaborative research, monitoring, and public support for bat conservation. The forces of global change threaten bats worldwide. In North America, experts report the top threats to bats include climate change, habitat loss, wind energy, and a bat disease called white-nose syndrome that has killed millions of hibernating bats in the United States and Canada. Destruction and disturbance of bat roosts is a major threat, especially for bats in caves. Bats become more vulnerable when multiple threats occur. In North America, extreme temperatures and drought are the biggest threats to bats from climate change. Bats fail to reproduce or die without enough water. Heat waves and severe winter storms have already killed many bats and these extreme conditions continue to threaten bats and other wildlife. Renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, emit little to no greenhouse gases and are helpful toward combating climate change; however, wind energy must be managed carefully to avoid killing unsustainable numbers of bats.
The authors find that despite the Inflation Reduction Act’s provisions linking offshore oil and gas drilling lease sales to offshore wind energy lease sales, more of the ocean does not have to be leased to oil and gas companies. President Biden can still prevent new oil and gas leases in 2024 and beyond through the five-year planning process and he can also exceed his goal of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind development by 2030. The authors also find that offshore drilling remains dirty and dangerous, with significant safety shortcomings that will not prevent another disaster like the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
Farms Under Threat 2040. Projected Climate Impacts on the Growing Conditions for Rainfed Agriculture in the Contiguous United States, Sorensen et al, American Farmland Trust
Agricultural production is especially vulnerable to changes in the climate. Over 80% of croplands in the contiguous United States depend on timely and predictable rainfall to stay in production. With rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, the crops and businesses supported by these rainfed croplands are increasingly at risk. The authors present potential changes in rainfed growing conditions between 2016 and 2040 for selected crops (corn, winter wheat, and apples) and for croplands in general, under two potential futures including one where the release of high amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continues or a future where significant emissions are reduced. The resulting maps show how the emissions-related decisions that are made in the next few years change the likelihood that present-day crop varieties and production practices will remain viable in a given area by 2040.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
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